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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! This fantasy season has become a weekly exercise in dodging landmines, whether they be of the injury or COVID variety, and now that bye weeks are here, it gets even messier. This is the 3^rd week in a row with a game in question due to COVID-19, and with the state of the running back position, we really need every game on the slate to happen. 8 of the top 16 running backs by preseason ADP will be sidelined either by injury or a bye, and one of the 8 that will be playing is Kenyan Drake (Drake is currently the RB32 in PPR scoring despite not missing a game). This is a week where you’re going to see some dicey flex options that make it into lineups, especially in deeper leagues. There are a few rookies that may be able to help. Keep in mind that all rookies listed below at the same position and same header are listed in the order that I would play them this week. Also, any references to fantasy scoring ranks are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive in and talk about what to expect in week 6…

 

Rookies to Start:

 

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 6: @Buf.): This week has been a tough one for folks with Edwards-Helaire on their rosters. It started with Darrel Williams taking 40% of the backfield snaps last Sunday against the Raiders and ended with Kansas City signing Le’Veon Bell, who will undoubtedly take a huge chunk out of CEH’s workload. Luckily for Edwards-Helaire, Bell will not be active this week, and CEH will get at least one more chance to shine. Despite ceding more snaps to Williams last week, Edwards-Helaire still had at least 18 combined opportunities (carries + targets) for the 5^th straight week and had 6+ targets for the third time in 4 games. Buffalo was one of the strongest defenses in the league in 2019, but they have struggled early in 2020. The Bills rank 22^nd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. The Chiefs have a gaudy implied total this week of 31 points, so there is a solid chance that CEH finds paydirt. If you have him, he should be in your lineup. If he does have a big game, it would be wise to test the market and attempt to trade him after the week in redraft formats if you can get someone to pay up for him.

 

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 6: vs. Cin.): We haven’t seen a true breakout game from Taylor yet, but we have seen a decent amount of consistency. He’s scored at least 13 PPR points in 4 out of 5 games this year but hasn’t reached 20 in any of them. That could change this week. This matchup should play to Taylor’s strengths. Cincinnati has done a good job of limiting receiving production by opposing backs, but Taylor doesn’t do much of his damage through the air. He’s tallied just 6 catches in the past 4 games. The Bengals have given up the 3^rd-most RB rushing yards per game so far, and The Colts are favored by 7.5 points this week. A positive game script and an injury to Jordan Wilkins means Taylor will likely see his highest snap share of the season, and may finally have a game where he’s able to get into a rhythm running the ball. He should be a very safe RB2 this week with upside for more.

 

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 6: vs. Det.): Robinson has continued to show himself to be a weekly fantasy starter in recent weeks, but his ceiling continues to be limited by the Jaguars’ overall struggles. During Jacksonville’s current 4-game losing streak, the rookie has played more than 60% of the snaps just once, with the team preferring to give Chris Thompson more run when they are trailing. Robinson has made the most of the snaps he is playing, finishing among the top-30 finishers at the position in each of the past 4 weeks, and in the top-10 twice. This week he faces off with Detroit, who ranks 31^st in run defense DVOA, so it’s a juicy matchup, but the Jaguars are again underdogs. If they can keep this game in a neutral or positive game script, Robinson has top-5 upside this week. In any case, he should be a locked-and-loaded RB2 in most lineups. In DFS formats he’ll continue to be a better option in cash games than tournaments. He’s the 10^th-highest priced RB on DraftKings this week.

 

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 6: @NYG): Gibson runs into a bit of the same problem that James Robinson does – although he’s shown himself to be a capable receiver, the team still has another receiving back that they like to use more when they play from behind, and they play from behind a lot. JD McKissic has played 12 more snaps this season than Gibson, but Gibson has scored nearly 30 more PPR points than McKissic on the season. This week projects to be a close game for Washington for once and the Giants allow the 13^th-most RB points per game. That should help Gibson see the field a bit more than usual this week, and the switch to Kyle Allen at QB appears that it will benefit the rookie as well. Allen targeted his running backs on 6 of his 14 pass attempts last Sunday. I view Gibson as a borderline option most weeks, but this week with a decent matchup and so many running backs out, you’re probably going to have a hard time finding a better option than Gibson in your flex spot.

 

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 6: vs. Cle.): Starting Claypool this week will probably feel like point chasing after his breakout 4-TD game last Sunday, but on paper, it’s the right call. With Diontae Johnson knocked out of the game early, Claypool pretty much assumed his role against Philly. Johnson had a 31.5% target share in the first two weeks of the season before injuries popped up, and Claypool was targeted on 32.3% of Big Ben’s targets in week 5. The Browns have allowed the 3^rd-most WR points per game so far this year, and Johnson is going to be sidelined again Sunday. Claypool also has a bit of history on his side this week. In the last 25 years, there have been 10 instances of a player catching 4 TD passes in one game. 7 of those players reached double-digit PPR points the following week, 6 of them scored 15+, and 5 of them got in the end zone again. Claypool’s chances at another strong game are very good, and his DraftKings price of $5,200 hasn’t caught up to what he did a week ago. He’s a solid cash game option there as well.

 

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 6: vs. Ari.): Dak Prescott going down for the year is a decidedly bad thing for the Cowboys’ passing attack, but it isn’t a death knell. During his best stretch in Cincy from 2013-2016, the Bengals offense carried 2 top-36 fantasy receivers each season, and this Dallas group of receivers probably has more talent than Dalton ever had in Cincy. The matchup in this game is a favorable one. The Cardinals rank 26^th in pass-defense DVOA, and Patrick Peterson is likely to be covering Amari Cooper for much of the game. That should open things up for Lamb and Michael Gallup. My biggest fear with this offense is that they go back to playing more of a ball-control game and try to slow things down with Dak out, but I don’t expect that to happen. Mike McCarthy prefers an up-tempo offense, and I think Dalton is a capable enough QB for them to continue to keep things moving. Lamb has seen at least 6 targets and scored double-digit PPR points in every single game this year. He’s a quality WR2/3 option this week.

 

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 6: vs. Atl.): Jefferson had a less than ideal fantasy performance in week 5 if you started him, but I’d expect him to bounce back in week 6. This game has real shootout potential with Julio Jones healthy. The Vikings rank 27^th in scoring defense and the Falcons rank 30^th, and this game has a 53-point over/under number. I wouldn’t expect Minnesota’s game plan to change much with Dalvin Cook out (Alexander Mattison isn’t much of a drop off behind him), but Atlanta has given up at least 299 passing yards each and every week and ranks 30^th in pass defense DVOA. Jefferson is bound to see a healthy share of that receiving load. Something in the range of 5 for 75 with a possible score sounds about right for the rookie this week. Don’t let last week scare you away from firing him up in your lineups.

 

Borderline Rookies:

 

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 6: @Jax.): The Lions backfield deployment has been the source of a lot of frustration for fantasy players this year. Each of Swift, Adrian Peterson, and Kerryon Johnson have had at least one-week ranking 1^st, 2^nd, and 3^rd in snap count out of that trio. There’s no clear-cut pecking order. It feels like the goal is to base the RB usage on the matchup, much like the Patriots did for years, and it’s going to continue to frustrate fantasy players all year. For what it’s worth, this feels like a Swift week. The Jaguars have allowed the 10^th-most RB catches per game despite not playing many true receiving backs. They managed to cough up 6 catches each to Jonathan Taylor and Joe Mixon. Swift has 13 catches on the year while Johnson and Peterson have combined for just 6. Swift is in play this week as a boom-or-bust RB3/flex option.

 

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 6: @Phi.): Dobbins has had flashes of brilliance in the first five weeks of the season, but the Ravens have been committed to the committee approach. Dobbins has averaged just 5 touches per game but has turned those into 40 yards per game. Ultimately if you play Dobbins you’re hoping he gets in the end zone. I list him as a borderline option this week because of how messy the running back situation is around the league, but I would lean against starting him if you can avoid it. There are some reasons for optimism for Dobbins. He’s made several big plays, and Philly has given up their fair share of them. Only Washington has given up more 40+ yard runs than the Eagles, and only the Bengals & Texans have given up more 20+ yard runs than Philly.

 

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 6: @NE): I wrote about Jeudy a week ago in this same matchup before the game ended up being pushed to week 6. The only real difference this week is that Denver gets back their starting QB Drew Lock. It would have been Brett Rypien under center had they played in week 5. The on-paper matchup for Jeudy isn’t great, but he should see enough volume to get him through to a productive day. The Broncos will be without Noah Fant, KJ Hamler, and Melvin Gordon. Josh Jackson is a tough matchup in the slot where Jeudy plays 70% of his snaps, but the Pats have given up lines of 7-67-1 to Tyler Lockett and 6-84-1 to Hunter Renfrow this season. Jeudy should make for a nice WR3 in a week where there should be plenty of targets for him. The Broncos are a 9.5-point underdog and should be throwing a lot.

 

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 6: vs. Det.): Shenault has been the most consistent part of the Jaguars’ receiving group this season, leading the team in both catches and yards through 5 games. He’s a reasonable flex option this week against a Detroit defense that has allowed the 9^th-most WR points per game, but there are some red flags to be aware of. The Jaguars have stopped short of giving him a full-time role, playing him fewer than 70% of the offensive snaps each week, and his two highest snap share weeks came in games where DJ Chark was injured. Chark is expected to play this week. Shenault also has an average target depth of just 7.9 yards for the season, doing a lot of his damage after the catch, but the Lions have allowed the 4^th-fewest yards after catch per game. Viska has a reasonable shot at a top-30 performance this week, but expecting a breakout game is probably asking for too much unless Chark ends up being sidelined.

 

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 6: @Ind.): Higgins doesn’t get a great matchup Sunday, but with a limited slate this week he’s been productive enough to warrant consideration for a flex spot. Higgins has seen at least 6 targets in 4 straight games and has led the Bengals in WR snaps in 2 of the last 3 weeks. Despite ranking 1^st in pass defense DVOA, the Colts have allowed 2 receivers in each of the last 2 weeks to reach 10 PPR points without including touchdowns. There is upside for a useful week from Higgins, and you could do worse than him this week if you’re searching for a flex option or WR3.

 

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 6: vs. LAR): Keep a close eye on updates for this game. It’s still a little up in the air which 49er WR will be shadowed by Jalen Ramsey. It’s either going to be Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel, but it’s hard to say for sure which one it will be. For the year, Ramsey is allowing just 4.7 yards per target on balls thrown in his direction. The Rams have allowed the fewest WR points per game, but have given up lines of 4-81 to Gabriel Davis, 6-100 to Cole Beasley, and 6-64 to DeSean Jackson. If Aiyuk avoids Ramsey, he could produce a useful week, but if we don’t know who Ramsey will match up with, I’d probably steer clear.

 

Rookies to Sit:

 

QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 6: @Ind.): Burrow is coming off of his worst game of the season against a stingy Ravens defense, and this week he faces off with an Indianapolis defense that has allowed the fewest QB points per game so far. They’ve been especially tough over the past 4 weeks, giving up about 10.5 points per game to opposing signal callers. They’ve allowed an average of just 194 yards per game and logged 9 interceptions and coughed up just 4 touchdowns in that span. The Bengals are 7.5-point underdogs in this game, so volume shouldn’t be a problem for Burrow. It would be tough for Joe to put up fewer points than he did a week ago, but this is unlikely to be a ceiling week like we saw for him against the Browns and Eagles. With four teams off this week, you might not have better options in a 2-QB league, but I wouldn’t start Burrow in any 1-QB formats and would view him as outside of the top-20 QB options for the week.

 

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 6: @SF): Akers returned from his rib injury last week, but he’s clearly playing behind Darrell Henderson at this point. Cam did put up 61 yards on 9 carries last Sunday, but the Rams were ahead by at least 13 points for every one of those carries, and 46 of the yards came on one 4^th quarter carry when the game was already decided. The 49ers are a much tougher run defense than Washington, allowing the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game and ranking 6^th in run defense DVOA. The Rams are the kind of team that may change up their RB usage suddenly, but I’d steer clear of Akers this week unless you think the Rams will blow out the 49ers like the Dolphins did a week ago.

 

RB La’Mical Perine, NYJ (Wk. 6: @Mia.): The release of Le’Veon Bell should be good news for Perine, but while Bell was out with injury Perine was playing behind both Frank Gore and Kalen Ballage, both of whom Adam Gase seems to love. There has been some noise this week that Perine will get a chance to carve out a receiving role, but I’ll believe it when I see it. Perine has been targeted just twice so far this season. He may be worth a stash in really deep leagues and in dynasty formats, but there’s no way to justify playing him this week.

 

RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 6: vs. GB): Vaughn looked to have a golden opportunity going into last week with LeSean McCoy out and Leonard Fournette only available in case of emergency, but he failed to take advantage. Vaughn left the game early with a chest injury, but not before losing a fumble. Ronald Jones played great in a workhorse role, and Fournette should be much more involved this week, so Vaughn goes back to being an afterthought for now. Keep him sidelined this week.

 

RB AJ Dillon, GB (Wk. 6: @TB): There is nothing to take away from the news that Tyler Ervin is out as far as Dillon is concerned. Ervin has been playing a healthy number of snaps each week (he’s been on the field for about a third of the Packers offensive plays), but he’s a shifty speed back who is used occasionally on sweeps and outside running plays. The bruising Dillon isn’t a natural fit to fill that role. There is a chance Dillon sees a bit more short-yardage work if Aaron Jones picks up some of Ervin’s role, but more than 5 touches for the rookie would be a surprise.

 

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 6: vs. KC): Davis has been impressive over the past few weeks, topping 50 yards or finding the end zone in each of the last 4 games. He even played 100% of the offensive snaps in week 5, but I’d expect him to go back to a secondary role this week. John Brown and Cole Beasley should both be good to go this week. In the 3 games where Brown has played more than 50% of the snaps, Davis has a total of 4 catches on 4 targets. He was just fortunate enough to score TDs on 2 of them. The Chiefs are one of the toughest matchups for opposing WRs, allowing the 6^th-fewest points per game to the position. Davis is at best a TD dart throw this week.

 

WR John Hightower, PHI (Wk. 6: vs Bal.): Hightower is fast becoming the Eagles’ 2020 version of JJ Arcega-Whiteside…a rookie receiver who plays a ton of snaps each week but does absolutely nothing with them. Hightower has led the Eagles in WR snaps for three consecutive weeks but has just 6 catches for 59 yards in those games to show for it. Travis Fulgham’s emergence and Greg Ward’s consistency in the slot have pretty much rendered Hightower a decoy most snaps. The Ravens rank 7^th in pass-defense DVOA and have allowed the 7^th-fewest WR points per game for the year. Hightower really isn’t a fantasy option at this point.

 

WR Antonio Gandy-Golden, WAS (Wk. 6: @NYG): Gandy-Golden has seen his playing time increase in recent weeks, playing a season-high 43% of the offensive snaps in week 5, but that hasn’t translated into targets. He’s totaled just 1 catch for 3 yards on 3 targets all season. There isn’t any reason to view his increase in snaps as a reason to stash him.

 

WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 6: vs. GB): Johnson came out of the gates fast in week 4 against the Bears, piling up 4 catches for 61 yards by early in the 2^nd quarter, but he didn’t record another catch the rest of the game. The Bucs should get Chris Godwin and Justin Watson back this week, and Johnson should return to the bench. He’s not worth considering this week.

 

Rookies on Byes: QB Justin Herbert, LAC, RB Josh Kelley, LAC, RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA, WR Henry Ruggs, LV, WR Bryan Edwards, LV, WR Freddie Swain, SEA

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

 

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 6: vs. KC): Moss is practicing in full this week and appears to be on track to play for the first time since week 2. I’d be hesitant to go right back to him in anything but the deepest season-long leagues, but he’s a sneaky cheap DFS option. Moss was dominating red zone snaps in this backfield before getting hurt. In his absence, Devin Singletary has found the end zone just once on the ground and was stuffed at the 1-yard line on back-to-back plays against the Rams. If Moss goes right back into that red zone role, he has a decent chance to find the end zone in a game where the Bills have an implied total of 26.5 points. The way to attack the Chiefs is on the ground. Kansas City ranks 28^th in run defense DVOA and 2^nd in pass defense DVOA. In their one loss to the Raiders, the Chiefs were dominated in the trenches. Buffalo should try to follow that blueprint. Moss could give you 50+ yards and a score for the minimum price in DraftKings.

 

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 6: @Car.): Mooney continues to operate as the Bears’ number 2 wide receiver. The switch to Nick Foles at QB hasn’t always been pretty, but it has still been an upgrade on Mitch Trubisky – especially for Allen Robinson, who has been targeted at least 10 times in each of the last 3 games. Robinson has a 28.8% target share from Foles. That hasn’t stopped Mooney from seeing 14 targets himself in Foles’ two starts. In the last two weeks, the Bears have faced the Colts and Bucs, who rank 1^st and 4^th in pass defense DVOA respectively. This week they face the Panthers who rank 14^th. I expect the Panthers to pay extra attention to A-Rob due to the heavy workload he’s been seeing, and that could open things up for Mooney. I like his chances at 60+ receiving yards in this one, and he costs the minimum on DraftKings.

 

WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 6: @Phi.): Baltimore’s #2 receiver Miles Boykin popped up on the team’s injury report on Friday with a thigh injury. He’s listed as questionable for Sunday’s game with Philly. If he misses this game, it could mean more opportunities for Duvernay. The rookie has flashed his wheels two weeks in a row with a kick return touchdown against Kansas City and a 42-yard run on a reverse last week against the Bengals. Marquise Brown is likely to be lined up against Darius Slay for a lot of this game, which could result in more targets for Mark Andrews and the other receivers. If Boykin misses this game, Duvernay becomes an interesting cheap DFS play for a limited slate and has some extra appeal in leagues that give bonus points for return yards.

 

WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 6: @Mia.): Mims was designated to return from injured reserve this week, and those of you in deeper leagues should look into beating the crowd to scoop him off the waiver wire. The Jets have been abysmal this year, but in 5 weeks they’ve gotten 6 top-30 WR performances this season – 3 from Jamison Crowder, 2 from Braxton Berrios, and one from Jeff Smith. Most of those have come from the slot, but Mims could provide a true outside threat to balance out that passing game. There isn’t much competition to climb ahead of on the depth chart.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to check on gameday for any inactives to make sure they aren’t in your lineups. There are a number of game-time decisions this week to keep an eye on. If you want to yell at me about anything written above or have questions, feel free to hit me up on Twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re at the quarter turn of the season (assuming the coronavirus doesn’t derail things), and the rookie picture is starting to come clearer. Each week we’ll have a better idea of what normal expectations will look like for the rookie crop.  We were treated to some dazzling rookie performances from the wide receivers in week 4, from CeeDee Lamb’s 2 touchdowns, to Brandon Aiyuk’s acrobatic hurdle, to Justin Jefferson’s second straight 100-yard game. There have been plenty of intriguing rookie wideouts this season. Many of them are listed as borderline options this week, so please keep in mind that all players under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. I also want to mention that anywhere that you see fantasy points allowed referenced, it’s based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 5…

 

Rookies to Start:

 

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 5: vs. LV): If you drafted Edwards-Helaire in the first round of your fantasy draft, the last few weeks probably haven’t been what you were hoping for from him. After a breakout debut, CEH hasn’t found his way back to the end zone and has finished outside of the top-20 running backs in 2 out of 3 weeks. Do not despair. Edwards-Helaire has still averaged 20 touches per game in the last 3 weeks and seen a larger share of the running back touches each week. He’s also through the toughest part of his schedule and hasn’t finished lower than the RB26 in PPR scoring formats. This week he gets his easiest matchup to-date. The Raiders have allowed more fantasy points to the running back position than any team in the league and they rank 30^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. This week will be a great opportunity for a big game out of CEH. He should be worth his price tag in DFS formats and has top-5 RB upside this week in a great matchup. If you can find an impatient fantasy player who is upset by Edwards-Helaire’s start, I would recommend sending a trade offer. His value is about to go up.

 

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 5: @Hou.): Most people had no idea who James Robinson was before he took the starting gig in Jacksonville, but he has definitely taken the job and run with it. He’s the RB6 for the season and has posted an impressive 40 receiving yards per game. This week he gets to square off with a Texans’ defense allowing the 4^th-most RB points per game and ranking 29^th in run defense DVOA. The Texans actually haven’t given up much receiving production to opposing backs, allowing just 3.3 catches (T-2^nd fewest) and 25.5 receiving yards (6^th-fewest) to the position per game, but a lot of that can be explained by the fact that Houston has mostly played from behind and their opponents have been able to lean on the run game. Houston’s opponents have been trailing on the scoreboard for just 24% of their offensive plays. This week the Texans are actually favored by 6, so if they get ahead, I’d expect Robinson to eclipse those receiving averages that Houston has been allowing to RBs. They’re also a bad enough run defense that Robinson will make some hay on the ground as well. He’s a locked-in RB2 this week.

 

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 5 vs. NYG): The Cowboys have been one of the most prolific passing offenses in the league so far, and Lamb has been the clear #2 receiver in the target pecking order. There has been an obvious effort to get the ball into Amari Cooper’s hands this season as he’s averaged nearly 13 targets per game (on pace for 200(!) targets), but Lamb has been seeing a healthy 7 targets per game himself. There’s bound to be a week at some point where Michael Gallup gets the squeaky wheel treatment and the team forces him some targets, but Dallas throws so much I don’t think that will have much impact on Lamb when it happens. This week Dallas faces the Giants, who have been allowing the 13^th-most points per game to WRs. The one functional part of their pass defense has been James Bradbury, who has limited Robert Woods and Allen Robinson each to less than 40 yards this season. This week Bradbury will be shadowing Amari Cooper. That should help get Lamb a little more work Sunday, and he should be a safe WR2/3 this week with Dallas’s implied total sitting at a robust 31.75 points.

 

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 5: @Sea.): Jefferson’s seems to have fully vanquished Bisi Johnson and taken over the #2 receiver role in Minnesota with his breakout performances over the last two weeks. Jefferson played mostly in the slot in college at LSU, so it seemed like early production wouldn’t be easy to come by in an offense that has 3+ receivers on the field for just 44% of their snaps, but over the last two weeks, Jefferson has made it clear he can thrive as a perimeter receiver. This passing game still runs through Adam Thielen, but this week the Vikings are going to have to be able to put up some points if they want to keep pace with the Seahawks explosive offense. Minnesota is a 7-point underdog this week, but still has an implied total of 25.25 points. I’d expect them to try to run the ball when they can to keep the ball out of Russell Wilson’s hands, and they may have some success there with box safety Jamal Adams sidelined, but there should be plenty of passing volume for Jefferson to be a safe WR3 with upside this week. No team has coughed up more fantasy points to opposing WRs than the Seahawks so far. He should be a bargain at his $5,500 DraftKings price tag.

 

Borderline Rookies:

 

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 5: @NO): Herbert finally got the nod from the coach as the full-time starter with Tyrod Taylor recovered from his chest injury, and it would’ve been coaching malpractice if he hadn’t. Herbert has thrown for at least 290 yards every week and kept his team in every game he’s played. They’re 0-3 in Herbert’s starts, but are yet to lose by more than 1 score. New Orleans’ best cornerback Marshon Lattimore is questionable for this week, and this Saints’ defense has allowed multiple TD passes and at least 21 fantasy points to every QB they’ve faced so far. Herbert has shown himself to be a solid QB2 option, and he’ll have nice upside for more this week if the Saints are without Lattimore.  As a TD underdog, Herbert should again be throwing a fair amount.

 

QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 5: @Bal.): Burrow’s matchup this week sounds daunting on paper, but the Ravens haven’t been a death sentence for QBs so far this season. Baltimore has allowed 275+ passing yards in 3 straight games including more than 300 to Dwayne Haskins last weekend. Burrow has topped 300 yards in each of the last 3 weeks, and the Ravens secondary is a bit banged up with Marcus Peters and Jimmy Smith both missing some practice time this week. It’s still a talented secondary, and Burrow will have an uphill battle to go over 300 for the 4^th-straight week, but he’s not a bad QB2 option this week. The Bengals will likely have to throw often as a 13-point underdog.

 

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 5: @Cle.): Obviously most people with Taylor on their rosters are going to be starting him this week, but I wanted to single him out as someone who shouldn’t be a slam-dunk starer. We knew when Marlon Mack went down that Nyheim Hines was still going to be heavily involved in this offense, especially in any weeks where the Colts play from behind. What we didn’t know was how big a role Jordan Wilkins was going to play. Wilkins has had at least 9 carries in each of the last 3 games and has taken a chunk out of Taylor’s weekly ceiling. The rookie has still handled a sizable workload, but as we saw last week, if he doesn’t get in the end zone he’ll have a hard time finishing as a top-20 back for the week. Cleveland isn’t a great matchup for opposing backs. Ezekiel Elliott is the only back to reach 50 rushing yards against them. Several backs have had success catching the ball out of the backfield against the Browns, but Taylor has been targeted just 4 times in the last 3 weeks. You can’t count on passing game usage. I think Taylor projects as a flex option this week that needs to get in the end zone to return real value to your lineup.

 

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. LAR): Gibson has been making the most of his opportunities each week, but at some point you’d like the see the Football Team give him more of them. Peyton Barber has been pushed to the bench, but JD McKissic continues to out-snap him each week. Gibson is averaging 16 PPR points per game over the last 3 weeks and has found the end zone in each game, but he’d have RB1 upside if he was unleashed in a workhorse role. The Rams have been a beatable run defense, ranking 28^th in run defense DVOA, but it’s hard to consider Gibson an auto-start while playing just half the snaps. He should be a safe flex play this week, and his price tag of $5,000 on DraftKings makes him an interesting bargain option this week.

 

RB Josh Kelley, LAC (Wk. 5: @NO): Austin Ekeler’s trip to the IR should be good news for Josh Kelley’s fantasy outlook, but he fumbled in a crucial spot in each of the last two games and it’s opened the door for the now healthy Justin Jackson to work his way into the mix. Kelley played 30 snaps to Jackson’s 21 last week, and I’d expect a similar split going forward unless Kelley can stop fumbling and can separate himself from Jackson on the field. New Orleans has been one of the tougher run defenses in the league, ranking 4^th in run defense DVOA, so Kelley will probably have to make things happen in the receiving game to have a strong week. The Saints have only allowed 31 receiving yards per game to opposing backs though. New Orleans is favored by a touchdown, so game script should keep the Chargers throwing a bit. I’d view Kelley as an upside RB3 this week despite a less than ideal matchup.

 

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 5: @Hou.): Shenault finally had the kind of week we’ve been looking for out of him last Sunday with 91 yards on 6 touches (5 receptions), and this week he faces a Houston defense that is fresh off of allowing Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson to combine for 12 catches and 217 yards. I’d like to see the Jaguars give Shenault more of a full-time role, and he still has a floor somewhere around 40-50 scrimmage yards and 8 or so PPR points, but I like his chances to post a ceiling week in this one. He should match up with the burnable Vernon Hargreaves for most of the game, and I love his upside as a WR3 this week.

 

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 5: @NE): This doesn’t shape up as a great week for Jeudy, but volume alone could get him through to a nice fantasy week. Brett Rypien is likely to be under center again, and he won’t have much to work with outside of Jeudy. Noah Fant and KJ Hamler will be sidelined in this one, so that leaves Tim Patrick and probably DaeSean Hamilton as the other receiving options. It’s a little worrying that Jeudy was limited to just 4 targets in Rypien’s first start with the Broncos throwing 31 times (Jeudy averaged 8 targets per game in the first 3 weeks), but he did find the end zone and top 60 receiving yards. I’d expect Rypien to look his way more often in this one. Josh Jackson is a tough matchup in the slot where Jeudy plays 70% of his snaps, but the Pats have given up lines of 7-67-1 to Tyler Lockett and 6-84-1 to Hunter Renfrow this season. Jeudy should make for a nice WR3 in a week where there should be plenty of volume for him.

 

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): Aiyuk could get Jimmy Garoppolo back this week at QB, and he faces a Miami defense that ranks just 28^th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 8^th-most WR points per game so far. On the surface, it looks like a great matchup, but he may have to tangle with the best part of the Dolphins’ secondary in Xavien Howard. The 49ers only target their WRs on a league-low 39% of their pass attempts, and with Garoppolo and Mostert back this could be a game where they get ahead and lean on the run game. Howard was torched by DK Metcalf last week, so there is some hope for Aiyuk, but the limited volume makes me hesitant to rank him higher than Jeudy or Shenault in week 5.

 

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 5: @Bal.): As I mentioned under Burrow above, the Ravens’ secondary is banged up this week and they haven’t been as dominant as they were a year ago. Higgins is working as a full-time WR in this offense, playing ahead of AJ Green, and the Ravens have ranked a pretty average 14^th in pass defense DVOA. He isn’t a guy I would target in DFS lineups, but with the pass-happy game script the Bengals are likely to be dealing with, he should be a passable WR3 option. Baltimore has allowed the 20^th-most WR points per game so far.

 

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 5: @Ten.): This game is up in the air at the moment thanks to the Titans’ coronavirus outbreak, and that probably doesn’t help Davis if they do in fact play. He played a lot last week with Cole Beasley battling through a foot injury and being limited to just 18 snaps. John Brown has also been a bit hobbled at practice this week with a calf injury. Having the game on Monday or Tuesday would give those guys a little extra time to get right and would hurt Davis’s opportunity. The rookie has shown he can perform when called upon, and Tennessee isn’t a pass defense to fear, allowing the 12^th-most WR points per game. Buffalo is averaging over 330 passing yards per game, so Davis has some upside as a desperation WR3 even with everyone else healthy, but if Beasley or Brown will be limited or sit out, Davis should move up your rankings this week. If your league doesn’t allow you to designate replacement players ahead of time though, it’ll be tough to trust anyone in this game.

 

Rookies to Sit:

 

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 5: vs. Cin.): Dobbins has been a victim of a crowded backfield so far this year, and I don’t see a lot of reasons why that will change in the immediate future. The Ravens have played in a few lopsided wins already, and still Dobbins has failed to top 43% of the snaps played or 7 touches in any game this season. The Bengals are another opponent that the Ravens should handle easily, and I know the RB pickings can be slim out there this week, but I’d stay away from Dobbins outside of the deepest of leagues this week. Cincy has allowed the 12^th-most RB points per game on the year, but that total is split 3 ways for Baltimore.

 

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 5: @Was.): Akers is practicing as of Thursday, but his status for Sunday’s game remains in doubt. If he plays, I think you have to wait a week to see how he is re-integrated into the backfield. The Rams look to be a true committee with no clear lead option, and that’s a situation you typically want to avoid in fantasy. Washington has allowed the 10^th-fewest RB fantasy points per game on the year, and Akers likely won’t see enough work to post a big week this Sunday. Like with Dobbins, those RB points are split three ways. I wouldn’t consider him outside of a desperation scenario.

 

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 5: @Ten.): It looks like Moss will be ready to return to action this week, assuming the Bills still have a game to play, but I would take a wait-and-see approach before putting him back in your lineup. If the Bills and Titans play at all, it won’t be until Monday or Tuesday, and that happens only if there are no more positive COVID tests for Tennessee. If your league doesn’t allow you to designate a replacement player prior to this week’s games, I wouldn’t even consider Moss. He may return to his red zone role and faces a defense that has allowed the 9^th-most RB points per game so far, but Devin Singletary performed well as the workhorse back over the last two weeks. There’s no guarantee that we go right back to the same workload split we were seeing before Moss’s injury, and Moss wasn’t exactly lighting up the fantasy box scores before he got hurt – he averaged 7.7 PPR points per game the first two weeks. I would like to see how it plays out before re-inserting Moss into any lineups, especially considering the COVID uncertainty surrounding this game.

 

RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): McFarland saw his first real game action in week 3 and flashed the kind of speed that the Steelers coveted him for, tallying 42 yards on 6 carries and a 7-yard reception. That performance came against the Texans though, and they rank just 29^th in run defense DVOA. The Eagles rank a passable 15^th in that stat, but they were 3^rd in 2019 and only Darrell Henderson has made it to 60 scrimmage yards against Philly so far this season. I know it’s a dire week at running back but counting on McFarland to see more work than he did in week 3 is a fool’s errand. This is still James Conner’s backfield.

 

WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 5: @KC): Ruggs seems likely to return this week while Bryan Edwards likely will remain sidelined, but this is not a great spot for him to have a breakout game. The Chiefs have allowed the fewest WR points per game and rank 1^st in pass defense DVOA. Ruggs has the kind of obscene speed that can help him post a useful fantasy week in 1 play, but the Raiders don’t involve the receivers enough in their passing attack to make you feel good about starting Ruggs this week. The Raiders throw just 40.1% of their passing targets in the direction of their wideouts. Only the 49ers WRs have a lower target share.

 

WR John Hightower, PHI (Wk. 5: @Pit.): Hightower has led the Eagles in WR snaps each of the past two weeks with the rest of the position group banged up, but it’s led to just 4 catches and 41 yards. As of Thursday, Alshon Jeffrey isn’t practicing, DeSean Jackson was a limited participant, and JJ Arcega-Whiteside was practicing in full. Even if all 3 missed this game, I would tell you not to play Hightower against the Steelers. Pittsburgh ranks 8^th in pass defense DVOA. If D-Jax plays, Hightower would likely see a significant drop in snap share.

 

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): With Diontae Johnson practicing in full ahead of this week’s game, Claypool may have missed his window to shine when the Tennessee game was pushed back. He is likely to go back to playing limited snaps sharing the WR3 role with James Washington on Sunday. The Steelers have tried to get him involved in the game-plan each week, and he did record an 80-yard touchdown in week 2 against Denver, but Philly has allowed just one pass play of 40+ yards so far this year. Claypool is no more than a low-volume TD dart throw against an opponent that has allowed just 2 receiving TDs to opposing WRs thus far.

 

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. Ind.): With KhaDarel Hodge sidelined in week 4 due to a hamstring injury, it was Peoples-Jones who slid into the WR3 role for the Browns, playing 44% of the offensive snaps. He wasn’t targeted in the game, but you might chalk that up to the Browns playing with a large lead for much of the day (Cleveland led by multiple scores for all but one offensive play in the last 2 and half quarters of the game). Hodge was placed on injured reserve for at least the next few weeks, but I wouldn’t view DPJ as a guy to add even in deeper leagues right now. Hodge was targeted just 6 times in the first 3 weeks of the season in this same role, and no team plays a smaller share of their snaps with 3+ WRs on the field than the Browns (36%). Cleveland also just called up Taywan Taylor from their practice squad, and he may steal some snaps from DPJ as well. Taylor caught 37 passes for Tennessee just two seasons ago and was a favorite of fantasy twitter. Add in the fact that Cleveland’s opponent this week, the Colts, rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and it’s an easy call to leave Peoples-Jones on the waiver wire this week.

 

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. Ind.): Bryant has continued to see his snap share and fantasy output increase each and every week this season, and as mentioned with Peoples-Jones, the Browns don’t have 3+ receivers on the field very often. This all bodes well for Bryant moving forward, but there are a couple of factors that don’t: the looming return of David Njoku and a matchup this week with the Colts. Njoku has been designated to return from injured reserve and could even be ready to suit up in week 5. Even if he doesn’t return this week, The Colts have allowed the fewest TE points per game in the league so far and have faced off with Chris Herndon, Kyle Rudolph, Jimmy Graham, and Tyler Eifert. Njoku’s return would probably at least cut Bryant’s snaps in half, and if Njoku is out one more week even 5 PPR points out of the rookie TE would be considered a successful week in this matchup.

 

TE Adam Trautman, NO (Wk. 5: vs. LAC): Trautman was a popular sleeper pick for last week as Jared Cook was sidelined by a groin injury, but things didn’t exactly work out in his favor against the Lions. Josh Hill served as the TE1, and Trautman wasn’t even targeted once. He was even out-snapped by another tight end, Garrett Griffin, who has one career reception that came in 2017. Even if Cook sits again this week, you can likely find more upside elsewhere. The Chargers have allowed the 10^th-most TE points per game on the season, but I wouldn’t be confident that Trautman can capitalize on the matchup.

 

Rookies on Byes in Week 5: RB D’Andre Swift, DET, RB AJ Dillon, GB, WR Quintez Cephus, DET

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

 

RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 5: @Chi.): Vaughn got his first real action of the season in week 4, and he made the most of it, scoring a late touchdown and finishing with 10.6 PPR points on just 19 snaps. The Bucs’ offense is very banged up heading into this week’s game in Chicago, and that should benefit Vaughn. LeSean McCoy has been ruled out, Leonard Fournette is doubtful, and a number of pass-catchers will be out as well for this game. Ronald Jones should handle the bulk of the rushing work, but he has been ineffective as a receiver out of the backfield. Jones has 12 catches out of 18 targets for just 57 yards (3.2 yards per target). The Bears haven’t given up a lot of receiving production to opposing backs thus far (4.5 receptions and 33.5 receiving yards per game), but with the limited weapons, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Vaughn log 5+ targets and a handful of carries. If you’re hamstrung at running back in a deep PPR league, he’s a viable fill-in this week, and he costs just $1,000 on DraftKings for the Thursday night showdown slate. A strong performance here could open up more opportunities for him in the weeks to come.

 

RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 5: vs. Min.): Dallas saw his first action of the season in week 4 with Carlos Hyde sidelined, and it looks like Hyde will be out again this week. Dallas split backup work with Travis Homer, but he did manage to put up 23 yards on 4 touches. He won’t be a worthwhile play in any formats this week, but he is worth monitoring and possibly even stashing in deeper dynasty formats. Chris Carson has been battling a number of injuries and Dallas would be forced into a bigger role if anything happens to Carson.

 

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 5: vs. TB): Mooney is listed as questionable for this game, but if he plays, he’s going to be an intriguing option in deep leagues and DFS formats. The changing of the guard at QB in Chicago looks like it will be a good thing for Mooney. He was targeted 8 times by Mitch Trubisky in 2+ games. He was targeted 9 times by Nick Foles in week 4. This week the Bears face a tough matchup against a Bucs’ defense that ranks 4^th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 12^th-fewest WR points per game, but their best corner Carlton Davis will likely be shadowing Allen Robinson. Davis has regularly been used to shadow big-bodied #1 WRs like Robinson and has had success, limiting Michael Thomas in week 1 (3 catches for 17 yards), and limiting De’Andre Hopkins late last year (5 for 23). Robinson is still going to command targets, but Mooney will have a much more favorable matchup and should see plenty of work himself. If Mooney doesn’t play, this would then apply to Anthony Miller. Mooney could be a passable WR3 in deeper leagues this week and is a sneaky DFS option as well if he plays.

 

WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 5: @Chi.): Johnson has quietly been on the field for over 30% of the Bucs snaps each of the last two weeks. It hasn’t led to any targets, but the Bucs are quickly running out of weapons ahead of the rookie. With Chris Godwin and Justin Watson already ruled out for this week, and Mike Evans a true game time-decision, Johnson seems likely to play a large number of snaps Thursday night. Brady is bound to look his way at least a few times in this one. If Evans is out, the group of weapons will consist of Scotty Miller, Gronk, Ronald Jones, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Cameron Brate, and Johnson. The Bears’ defense has been solid against the pass (they allow the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game), but you could do worse than Johnson at his minuscule $200 price tag in the Thursday showdown slate on DraftKings.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and keep an eye out for updates on the Bills/Titans game. You don’t want to leave an inactive player in your lineup. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

 

 

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 3 opened with a bit of a dud on Thursday, but man was Sunday fun. We didn’t have nearly the same injury carnage that we saw in week 2, and there were several close games and wild comebacks, not to mention some breakout games by rookies Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins, Brandon Aiyuk, and James Robinson. This week could be another wild one for offenses with 8 out of 15 games having projected point totals above 50. Let’s dive in and see what to expect from the rookies…

 

Rookies to Start:

 

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 4: vs. NE): CEH has seen his fantasy fortunes dip a bit since his breakout NFL debut a couple of weeks ago, but he’s still finished as the RB26 and RB12 the last two weeks. That’s hardly anything to be too upset about, and he should be in line for a nice game this week. New England isn’t exactly a pushover of a defense, but they’ve allowed the 10^th-most RB receptions per game and rank just 19^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. The Chiefs are favored by a touchdown, so there should be plenty of opportunities for Edwards-Helaire to carry the ball. He should be a safe top-15 back who will likely break into the top-10 for the week if he gets into the end zone. The Chiefs have an implied total of 30.75, the 2^nd highest of the week.

 

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 4: @Chi.): Taylor has already been showing us that he can basically carry this offense if he has to, and with another receiver going down with an injury for this team (Michael Pittman Jr.) he may have to. The Colts should look to lean on Taylor this week, and the Bears are just a middling run defense, allowing the 15^th-most RB points per game and ranking 20^th in run defense DVOA. The lack of passing targets for Taylor the last couple weeks has been a little disconcerting, but it’s nothing we didn’t expect coming into the year. I think he’ll get a few more passing targets this week in a game that should be a bit more competitive, and think Taylor will top 15 PPR points Sunday.

 

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 4: @Cin.): Robinson announced his presence as a fantasy starter with authority last Thursday despite the Jaguars suffering a lopsided loss. He still gave way to Chris Thompson more often than you’d like to see, but he’s clearly the back you want in Jacksonville, and he’s done enough to ensure the job stays his when Ryquell Armstead and Devine Ozigbo get healthy. This week he gets to face a Cincinnati team that has allowed the 5^th-most RB points per game and ranks 21^st in run defense DVOA. The Jaguars will look to involve him early and often, and he should be a safe RB2 in this favorable matchup. I probably would look elsewhere for DFS lineups though with Robinson priced in between CEH and Jonathan Taylor on DraftKings this week.

 

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 4: vs. Cle.): Lamb has quickly proven himself to be a safe WR3 option most weeks, putting up at least 5 catches and 59 yards in each of his 3 games so far. This week he faces a Cleveland defense that has given up the 6^th-most WR points per game despite playing the Ravens and Washington, two teams that don’t put up a ton of WR points. This is a great week for Lamb to get into the end zone for the first time in his young career. Don’t be shy about getting him into your lineups.

 

Borderline Rookies:

 

QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 4: vs. Jax.): I actually think Burrow is a borderline QB1 this week. The Bengals have shown that they’re comfortable with the rookie airing it out, and he gets a very beatable matchup with the Jaguars. Jacksonville has allowed Ryan Tannehill and Ryan Fitzpatrick to finish as the QB8 and QB6, respectively in the last two weeks. The Bengals are actually favored to win this game and have an implied point total of 26. The emergence of Tee Higgins to go along with AJ Green and Tyler Boyd makes this an offense that will produce points in plus matchups. Get Burrow in your 2QB lineups, and give him some consideration if you don’t love your starter for this week in a 1-QB league.

 

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 4: @Was.): Dobbins’ usage has been hard to predict on a weekly basis, but I feel pretty confident that he’ll see a decent amount of work this week. The Ravens are an astounding 13-point favorite, and this will be a spot where everyone on their offense can get right. Washington is a middle of the pack run defense, and I’d expect there will be somewhere around 30 carries divvied up between Dobbins, Mark Ingram, and Gus Edwards. I’d be comfortable with Dobbins in my flex spot this week and would be surprised if he ends up with at least 10 touches.

 

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 4: vs. Bal.): On the other side of the Ravens – Football Team game, Antonio Gibson could be hard-pressed to put up a solid game. JD McKissic out-snapped Gibson 34-to-26 in a game where Washington played from well behind against Cleveland. The game script should be similar in this game, so we could see more of McKissic again. The Ravens have allowed the 4^th-fewest RB points per game so far this season and allowed the 6^th-fewest in 2019. Volume should keep Gibson on the flex radar this week, but I’d prefer to keep him benched if you can.

 

RB Josh Kelley, LAC (Wk. 4: @TB): I list Kelley in the borderline section this week, but I’d lean more towards sitting him than playing him this week. Tampa is favored by a touchdown, and with the Bolts playing from behind last week Kelley was out-snapped by Austin Ekeler 56-to-23. Kelley did lose a fumble in that game and it may have played a part in his limited snaps, but it looks like Ekeler will see a bit of a bump in playing time when the Chargers play from behind. Tampa is one of the strongest run defenses in the league, ranking 1^st in run defense DVOA in 2019, and 5^th so far this year. They have allowed 8 receptions per game to opposing backs this season, but just 50 rushing yards per game. It would likely take a touchdown for Kelley to be helpful to your team this week, and the Chargers have one of the lowest implied point totals of the week at 18.25. I’d try and steer clear of Kelley unless you’re in a bind due to injuries.

 

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 4: @Hou.): What a week for Justin Jefferson last Sunday. His monster 7-175-1 performance came seemingly out of nowhere. His yardage total was 62 yards more than the TOTAL number of passing yards Kirk Cousins threw for in week 2, and Jefferson now has accounted for 60% of the Vikings receiving yards in the last 2 games. You’d be crazy to count on Jefferson to repeat what he did last Sunday, but he gets a pretty decent matchup and should be a solid upside WR3 option this week. The Texans have been worse against the run than the pass, but they’ve been poor against both. It is worth noting that Bisi Johnson unexpectedly played only a few snaps on Sunday, so keep your ear to the ground on that if you plan to start Jefferson. I think it’s safe to say Jefferson has fully moved into the WR2 role after what he did last weekend, but it was still strange to see Johnson barely play after being on the field for more than 60% of the offensive snaps each of the first two weeks.

 

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 4: @Jax.): Higgins had a breakout game in week 3 against the Eagles, finishing with 2 touchdowns and over 20 PPR points. He actually led all Bengals’ receivers in snaps for the game and should continue to play a full-time role after posting such positive results. The Jaguars have struggled to limit opposing passing attacks, ranking dead last in pass-defense DVOA, and Higgins will continue to be heavily involved in the Cincy game plan. 50 yards feels like his floor in this matchup. I would be comfortable firing up Higgins as a flex or WR3 this week.

 

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 4: @NYJ): Jeudy’s role as the #1 WR in Denver gives him some flex upside, especially in a matchup against a Jets defense that ranks 31^st in pass defense DVOA. Unfortunately, he also has a QB making his first career start under center in Brett Rypien. Rypien doesn’t have a big arm, and I wouldn’t expect Denver to air it out too much in this one. Melvin Gordon and Royce Freeman should see a lot of work, and I expect Rypien’s best friend in the passing game to be tight end Noah Fant. I could see Jeudy finishing with 3-4 catches for 50-60 yards, but anything more than that should be considered a bonus.

 

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 4: vs. Cin.): Shenault was a bit of a let down in week 3, not exactly having the breakout game that many called for on Thursday. It was especially frustrating to see him playing behind Chris Conley, who seemed to fill the DJ Chark role in the offense. If Chark returns this week, it should make the offense more successful as a whole and help open things up for the rest of the team. Cincinnati’s pass defense is off to a good start in 2020, but they haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of passing attacks. They’re more beatable than the numbers suggest. I’d look for Shenault to see 6 or so targets in this one and be a decent flex option in 12-team formats or deeper.

 

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 4: @LV): Davis has quickly ascended the Bills’ depth chart and may see an even bigger role this week with John Brown’s status up in the air. Buffalo has surprisingly been pass-happy so far this season, ranking 9^th in pass percentage (They ranked 26^th in 2019). The Raiders are 18^th in pass defense DVOA so far this year but were 31^st a year ago. I think Davis has a good chance to repeat his performance from last week and top 10 PPR points once again if Brown sits. For the season, he has caught every target that has come his way. That’s the kind of performance that gets you more targets.

 

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 4: vs. Phi.): Aiyuk has a bit of a breakout game in week 3, finishing just ahead of Tee Higgins as the WR13 for the week, but he may crash back to earth a bit this week. The 49ers have had the fun of playing two of the worst secondaries in the league in the Jets and Giants in weeks 2 & 3, but this week Aiyuk will probably be squaring off with Darius Slay, who is still one of the better lockdown corners in the league. With Deebo Samuel still sidelined, Aiyuk is the de facto #1 receiver for the 49ers, so he’ll be the one getting the defensive attention from Slay. I’d expect he’ll still see a handful of targets come his way, but I don’t expect another top-15 finish. I wouldn’t be eager to roll Aiyuk out there outside of deep leagues this week.

 

Rookies to Sit:

 

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 4: @TB): Most of the press clippings out of Tampa Bay focus on the offensive weapons on the roster, but their defense has been very underrated going back to the start of last season. They ranked a respectable 13^th in pass defense DVOA in 2019, and have improved to 3^rd so far in 2020. They’ve also allowed the 4^th-fewest QB points per game. Herbert has thrown for over 300 yards in each of his first 2 starts, but I’d be surprised if he makes it 3-for-3. Tampa has held 2 of their first 3 opponents under 200 passing yards. As a 7-point underdog, the Chargers should be throwing the ball a bit, but I’d look at Herbert as a desperation QB2 this week.

 

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 4: vs. NO): I like the pass-catching skills Swift brings at RB, but Detroit’s backfield is shaping up to look a lot like the New England backfields we used to see a few years back, where you never knew from week-to-week which back was going to get the bulk of the work. Swift barely played last week, and while this week’s matchup looks like one where Detroit will be throwing plenty, I’d be hesitant to trust Swift in your fantasy lineups until we know his usage is a little more predictable. Swift played just 6 offensive snaps in week 3 and has seen his share decline each week so far.

 

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 4: vs. NYG): Akers’ status for week 4 is still in the air with him not practicing as of Wednesday, but I’d avoid playing him if he is able to play even in what seems like a plus matchup. The Giants have allowed the 10^th-most running back points per game through the first 3 weeks, and the Rams are likely to be playing from ahead as a whopping 12.5-point favorite. Unfortunately for Akers, his time on the sideline has allowed Darrell Henderson to grab the starting job and run with it. Henderson has reached 120 scrimmage yards and a TD in each of the last 2 weeks, and coach McVay has said he’s earned a start in week 4. There’s always a chance in this offense that Akers gets a hot hand and gets some extra run, or gets some garbage-time work, but that’s not something I want to rely on for fantasy production.

 

RB LaMical Perine, NYJ (Wk. 4: vs. Den.): Frank Gore continues to defy the football gods and play a large offensive role into his late 30s, and Perine can’t even effectively hold off Kalen Ballage for the backup role. Both played a pretty even split of snaps in week 3. The Jets finally get an opponent that is closer to their talent level in week 4, but this game is going to be U-G-L-Y. The Jets rank dead last in the league in both offensive yards and points scored, and Denver has allowed the 7^th-fewest RB points per game. You do not want to roll the dice on a guy splitting backup work in that offense, in that matchup. Aim higher.

 

RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 4: @Mia.): Chris Carson suffered an injury on Sunday that could keep him sidelined for the next week or two, but that isn’t a good reason for DeeJay Dallas to be on your radar. I’d expect Carlos Hyde to handle the early-down work and Travis Homer to be the 3^rd down back while Carson is out, and would only expect Dallas to mix in occasionally. Seattle is likely to steamroll the Dolphins in this game, so there could be some garbage time opportunity for the rookie against a bad run defense, but it’s hard to count on him getting more than a handful of touches.

 

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 4: vs. Ind.): Mooney has gotten off to a surprising start this season, already taking over the number 2 receiver role in the offense. I don’t think this is the week to trot him out there in fantasy lineups though. The Colts rank first in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 5^th-fewest WR points per game so far. We also haven’t seen how this offense will function with Nick Foles installed as the starting QB. I’d keep Mooney sidelined for now in all formats.

 

WR Antonio Gandy-Golden, WAS (Wk. 4: vs. Bal.): Washington is banged up at wide receiver with Dontrelle Inman and Steven Sims both appearing to be on the wrong side of questionable in this game. That should mean a sizable snap count for Gandy-Golden, but I wouldn’t count on him cashing in on that opportunity against the Ravens. Baltimore’s secondary will be eager to show that their Monday night meltdown against Kansas City was an aberration, and Gandy-Golden doesn’t have Pat Mahomes throwing him the ball. Baltimore’s overall pass defense numbers don’t look great so far this year, but they’re skewed by what happened on Monday night. They ranked 4^th in pass defense DVOA in 2019. Terry McLaurin is the only Washington receiver who should be considered this week.

 

WRs Henry Ruggs & Bryan Edwards, LV (Wk. 4: vs. Buf.): Both Ruggs and Edwards are not practicing as of Thursday, and the Bills boast one of the better secondaries in the league. Buffalo hasn’t been quite as sharp against the pass so far this year as they were a year ago, ranking 15^th in pass defense DVOA so far, but Vegas doesn’t funnel the ball to their receivers even when they’re healthy. Steer clear of both rookies here this week.

 

WR Van Jefferson, LAR (Wk. 4: vs. NYG): Jefferson’s preseason hype has faded fast in the regular season. Each week this season Jefferson has seen his snap share drop and Josh Reynolds’ share increase. Reynolds played 90% of the offensive snaps in week 3 to just 12% for Jefferson. It’s hard to say how much the game flow had to do with that since the Rams were in a deep hole for much of the game, but I know that after a week like that Jefferson isn’t a guy that I want to target in my fantasy lineups. The Giants are a very burnable pass defense, but you can’t count on Van to have a big opportunity to take advantage.

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

 

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 4: @LV): Moss looks likely to play this week, and it couldn’t have come at a better time for the rookie. The Raiders have allowed more running back points per game than any other defense and were just shredded by plodder Sony Michel a week ago. I’d expect Moss to return to his goal line and short-yardage role this week and think he has a decent chance to turn it into a better than expected game. A top-25 finish wouldn’t be shocking.

 

RB AJ Dillon, GB (Wk. 4: vs. Atl.): This is more of a hunch than anything, but this game could go sideways on the Falcons. The Packers are favored by a touchdown and have a ridiculous implied total of 32.5 points, and Atlanta could be without Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, and Russell Gage. All 3 are questionable for Monday. The extra day may give them a chance to get right, but we’ve seen the Falcons’ defense hasn’t really slowed anyone down. If the offense is hampered at all, this could be a blowout, and I think we could see a decent amount of Dillon in garbage time. The Falcons are a middling run defense at 17^th in run defense DVOA on the year, so an extended run for Dillon could result in a nice game. I don’t know what format I’d suggest playing him this week – maybe a single-game DFS tournament, but I do like his chances at a solid game.

WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 4: @NYJ): Hamler has been targeted 12 times in the last 2 games, and despite having untested Brett Rypien at QB, he still gets to play the Jets’ barely there secondary. I don’t expect a ton of passing volume from the Broncos, but given Hamler’s speed and playmaking ability, I think he has a better shot at breaking a long touchdown than teammate Jerry Jeudy. He’s a shoot-the-moon option in DFS tournaments in this one.

 

WR John Hightower, PHI (Wk. 4: @SF): Hightower’s outlook for this week took a bit of a hit on Thursday as he missed practice with an injury, but if he’s able to play this week it seems very likely he will be Philly’s number 2 receiver behind Greg Ward. The 49ers are a stingy pass defense but are still without Richard Sherman. If Hightower plays, he’s probably only an option in the deepest of leagues, but he could be enticing as a minimum priced option if you’re playing in a showdown tournament for the Sunday night game. The Eagles will have to throw the ball to somebody, and with so many injuries Hightower might only be behind Zach Ertz, Miles Sanders, and Greg Ward in the target pecking order in a game where they are a 7-point underdog.

 

WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 4: vs. LAC): Johnson saw his first significant game action of the season in week 3 getting on the field for 21 offensive snaps, and the Bucs may be without two of Tom Brady’s favorite targets this week in Chris Godwin and Scotty Miller. Johnson would undoubtedly slide into 3-WR sets along with Mike Evans and Justin Watson if both Godwin and Miller are out, and the Chargers allow the 8^th-most WR points per game. Johnson wasn’t targeted in last week’s game (outside of one that was negated by a penalty), but Brady threw just 4 pass attempts in the last 20 minutes of game time, when Johnson saw most of his playing time. I’d expect him to record his first few catches of the season this week if Godwin and Miller both sit. He was a wildly productive player in college, so he’s a player to monitor this week for those of you in dynasty leagues.

 

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 4: @Dal.): Bryant has seen his snap % increase every single game, and while he’s only been catching one ball per week, that’s not much less than Austin Hooper is seeing. The Cowboys have been vulnerable to tight ends, allowing the 8^th-most points to the position this year and the 3^rd most last year. Bryant isn’t a guy you should consider for season-long leagues, but he’s a sneaky TD dart throw if you’re punting on tight end in DFS.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions of the week involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you want to yell at me about anything written above or have any questions for me feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

 

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully your fantasy team came out of week 2 without a bunch of red letters next to players’ names. Last weekend was a bloodbath across the NFL as 4 players who may have been 1^st round picks in your fantasy draft left the week with injuries (CMC, Saquon, Davante Adams & Julio Jones), along with a host of others. If your fantasy team didn’t suffer major injuries, you came out of the week in pretty good shape. Some of these injuries are going to open the door for rookies to step into bigger roles in the immediate future, and I’m here to help you sort through what to do with your rookies in week 3. Let’s dive in…

 

Rookies to Start:

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 3: vs. NYJ): This one is a no-brainer. Taylor put the Colts’ offense on his back last Sunday against Minnesota, and he’s likely to do the same this week with Indy favored by double-digits. The Jets are much tougher against the run than they are against the pass, but volume alone should get Taylor where he needs to be. The Jets have allowed the 8^th-most RB points per game this season. He’s a locked in RB1 this week with top-5 potential. He’ll likely be a chalk play for DFS cash games even at his $7,000 DraftKings price tag.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 3: @Bal.): This is not an ideal matchup for CEH. I mention him as a guy to start because you know the volume will be there. You likely drafted him in the first round, and there really aren’t any weeks to sit your first-round pick if he’s healthy. The Ravens allowed the 6^th-fewest RB points per game a season ago, and have allowed THE fewest so far in 2020. They also ranked 4^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat in 2019 (3^rd so far in 2020). Edwards-Helaire is more of a contrarian DFS play this week, but you have to run him out there in season-long leagues. Just know to temper your expectations a little bit.

RB Josh Kelley, LAC (Wk. 3: vs. Car.): Week 3 has a chance to be Kelley’s best week all year. There is no better matchup for a running back than the Carolina Panthers, and everything shapes up for Kelley to see at least 15 carries. The Panthers’ run defense is bad by any metric. They ranked dead last in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat in 2019 and rank 29^th so far in 2020. They also allowed the most RB fantasy points last year, and have allowed the most so far in 2020, and they’ve been surrendering rushing touchdowns at a ridiculous rate. Carolina has allowed 18 rushing touchdowns in their last 7 games dating back to last season, including 3 in each of the first two games this year. Kelley and Ekeler split the lead back role pretty evenly in week 2, and I didn’t see anything from Kelley that makes me think that will change this week. The rookie has a very solid floor in this one and has top-12 upside if he’s able to get in the end zone. He should probably be in your lineup if you have him.

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 3: vs. Mia.): Everything is setting up for a breakout for Robinson on the national stage on Thursday night. The rookie has looked great through two weeks in average matchups. He’s the RB26 so far on the season in PPR scoring, and he’s looked even better than that ranking would suggest. He’ll face off with one of the worst run defenses in the league in week 3. The Dolphins have ranked in the bottom-4 in the league in run defense DVOA both last season and so far in 2020 and have given up 5.1 yards per carry on the ground so far this season. I expect Robinson to have a bit of a coming-out party on Thursday night and think a top-15 finish for the week is very possible.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 3: @Sea.): Lamb has wasted no time showing why the Cowboys were thrilled when he fell to them in the first round of the NFL draft. He’s clearly an integral part of the offense with 15 targets in the first two weeks. The Seahawks are 2-0, but they have a burnable secondary and have given up an insane 831 passing yards through two weeks. This is a spot to get all of the Cowboys’ pass-catchers into your lineup, especially after head coach Mike McCarthy told the media he has no intention to try and milk the clock to keep the ball away from Russell Wilson. This should be the most entertaining game of the week, and CeeDee Lamb should be a solid WR2 in it.

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 3: vs. Mia.): Along with James Robinson, Viska may also be in line for a big night. DJ Chark has been ruled out, leaving Shenault and Keelan Cole as the top 2 receivers. You may have 3 better options than Shenault on your team and not be able to find a place in your lineup for him, but he’s going to be a huge part of the game plan. The Jaguars will move him around enough to keep him away from Xavien Howard, and with Bryon Jones out that will put him in some mismatches in his favor. Shenault is an upside WR3 on Thursday night against a Miami secondary that let Josh Allen throw for 411 yards last week.

 

Borderline Rookies:

QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 3: @Phi.): Burrow had a very nice fantasy day last Thursday night against the Browns, but it could’ve been even better if he hadn’t been so hell-bent on forcing the ball to AJ Green all night. The Eagles’ secondary hasn’t been great so far this year ranking 27^th in pass defense DVOA, but the best member of that secondary, Darius Slay, should be shadowing Green. If Burrow can avoid tunnel vision with Green again, there is a chance at a respectable day. I wouldn’t be considering Burrow in 1-QB leagues and his outlook this week isn’t as rosy as his matchup with the Browns was, but he should be a low-end QB2 option with a very solid floor.

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 3: @Cle.): Gibson seems to have wrestled the starting job away from Peyton Barber in Washington, and with so many running backs injured right now you may be forced to play him. Just be aware this isn’t a great matchup and he’ll still cede some work to Barber and JD McKissic. The Washington offense as a whole isn’t a high-scoring unit and has an implied total of just 18.5 points this week. The Browns did give up two short yardage scores to JK Dobbins in week one, but have still allowed the 7^th-fewest RB points per game and rank 4^th in run defense DVOA. Gibson’s volume makes him an enticing flex option, but he’s far from an automatic start and not someone I would be using in DFS lineups this week.

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 3: @Ari.): What a difference a week makes for the Lions’ backfield usage. In week one with the Lions leading most of the day, Adrian Peterson touched the ball 17 times while Swift handled just 6 touches. In week 2 with the team trailing Green Bay for most of the game, Swift out-touched Peterson 10-to-7. The key for Swift is that he’s been heavily involved in the passing game with 8 receptions on 10 targets through 2 weeks. The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog this week, so the usage should slant in Swift’s direction again, and Arizona has allowed scores each of the last two weeks to backs with similar skill-sets to Swift (Jerick McKinnon & Antonio Gibson). Swift is in play as a PPR flex option in a game where Detroit has an implied total of 24.5.

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 3: vs. TB): The injury to Courtland Sutton moves Jeudy up to the top of the Broncos’ WR depth chart, and thanks to how much time he spends in the slot he’ll be able to avoid Tampa’s top CB Carlton Davis for most of this game. Jeudy lines up in the slot on about two-thirds of his snaps. No team allowed more points to opposing wide receivers than Tampa a year ago, and they allowed DJ Moore and Robby Anderson to each top 100 yards last week. Jeudy should be in line to see 7+ targets this week and is very much in the WR3 conversation in all formats.

WR Michael Pittman Jr., IND (Wk. 3: vs. NYJ): Pittman stands to be the biggest beneficiary of Parris Campbell’s trip to the IR. His snap share rose from 53% in week 1 up to 92% in week 2 with Campbell going down on his first touch of the game. Pittman should continue to be a full-time player at least until Campbell returns. This game figures to be a blowout where Indy will lean on Jonathan Taylor and the run game, but Pittman was targeted 6 times in a game that went that way last week. The Colts have an implied total of 27 points, and dating back to the start of last season, 66% of the offensive TDs the Jets have allowed have been through the air. At 6’4”, Pittman figures to be a factor in the red zone. If he gets 6+ targets in this one, he’ll have a great chance at finishing among the top-40 WRs and should outproduce his $4,000 price tag in DraftKings.

 

Rookies to Sit:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 3: vs. Car.): I think it’s very likely that Herbert has a better real game than fantasy game this week. As I laid out with Josh Kelley above, Carolina has been absolutely shredded on the ground since the start of last season, especially in the red zone. I’d expect a lot of Austin Ekeler and Josh Kelley in this game. The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite in this one and Christian McCaffrey, the engine of the Panthers’ offense, is sidelined. It feels like the most likely outcome is that the Chargers get out in front and stay there. I’d probably view Herbert as no more than a low-end QB2 this week due to limited passing volume.

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 3: vs. LAR): In a typical week with so many top running backs out, I’d be telling you to consider a guy like Moss as a flex option. He’s seeing plenty of red zone usage on a surprisingly potent Bills offense that has an implied total of 25 points this week. Unfortunately, he’s also dealing with a toe injury that has him not practicing yet as of Thursday. I think even if Moss plays he’ll be less effective than usual. The Rams are not a run defense to be afraid of, but I’d lean against starting Moss this week even if he is able to suit up. He’ll probably need to find the end zone to return any value.

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 3: vs. KC): I fell for the trap on Dobbins a little bit after his week 1 breakout game. I already believed in his talent coming into the season, but week 1 made me believe he’ll get enough usage to be start-able in fantasy. Week 2 threw a bit of a wet blanket on that. The snap share wasn’t drastically different from week 1 to 2, but the touches were. Dobbins handled 7 carries in week 1 including 2 carries from the 2-yard line that he cashed in for scores, but in week 2 he touched the ball just 3 times. He managed to avoid a complete dud of a week by breaking off a 44-yard run to set up kneel downs at the end of the game. Mark Ingram & Gus Edwards combined for 4 red zone carries to Dobbins’ zero in week 2. The Ravens have one of the highest implied totals of the week at 28.5, but if you play Dobbins you’re counting on him getting in the end zone. I’d avoid starting him this week unless you’re in a tough spot due to injuries. He could be a reasonable fall-back flex option if you’re waiting on a player like Davante Adams for Sunday night or Sammy Watkins Monday, but Tre’Quan Smith and Mecole Hardman are guys that are probably available in your leagues that I would prefer in those situations.

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 3: @Buf.): Akers seems like to a long-shot to play this week, and I’d expect that if he does suit up he’ll be mainly there as insurance in case something happens to Darrell Henderson. I’d expect Henderson to handle the bulk of the work. The Bills aren’t an impenetrable run defense, but they aren’t one to target either, allowing the 12^th fewest RB points per game so far this year (14^th-fewest last year).

WRs Henry Ruggs & Bryan Edwards, LV (Wk. 3: @NE): Ruggs and Edwards failed to do much last Monday in a game where the Raiders offense dominated possession, and this week they’ll face a Patriots’ secondary that is among the best in the league. Don’t be fooled by what the Seahawks did to them last week. Derek Carr continued to effectively lead his ‘death by a thousand paper cuts’ offense, dinking-and-dunking to Darren Waller and his running backs, and handing the ball to Josh Jacobs. The Patriots biggest personnel losses due to COVID opt-outs and players changing teams last offseason were in the defensive front 7. That’s the part of the defense that I’d expect the Raiders to attack. If Josh Jacobs sits, things get a little more interesting (he was held out of practice Thursday), but neither Ruggs nor Edwards would be more than a desperation flex play. I’d prefer Ruggs to Edwards this week if I had to choose one.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 3: vs. Ten.): Jefferson has been on the field quite a bit in the first two weeks of the season, but the Vikings’ passing game has been a low-volume attack that runs through Adam Thielen. A third of all of Minnesota’s targets have gone to Thielen while Jefferson has been targeted just 6 times at an average depth of 8.8 yards downfield. Offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak talked about wanting to do a better job of getting the ball in his hands this week, but at that same presser said they need to run the football more. The Vikings already rank 31^st in the league in pass attempts DESPITE playing from behind on 79 of their 96 offensive snaps so far this year…and Kubiak wants to run more. The matchup isn’t terrible for Jefferson this week on paper. On any snaps in the slot  he should be lining up against 7^th-round rookie corner Chris Jackson (PFF grade of just 27.2 through two weeks), but the Minnesota passing game is fundamentally broken right now. I wouldn’t look at Jefferson as anything other than a low-priced DFS dart throw in a limited slate tournament.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 3: vs. Hou.): Claypool’s final stat line in week 2 was impressive, finishing with 17.8 PPR points, but almost all of it came on one long TD catch. Outside of an 84-yard score, he had just 2 catches for 4 yards and played a total of just 24 snaps. It’s clear the Steelers are trying to get him involved and are drawing up a couple of shot plays for him each week, but his limited playing time makes him a risky weekly option. Houston has been a bottom-10 pass defense in terms of DVOA since the start of last season and gave up 12 pass plays of 40+ yards in 2019 (T-7^th most in the league) but they haven’t given one up yet in 2020. Claypool is best left to DFS tournaments this week. The weekly floor is going to be below 5 PPR points until he moves up in the depth chart.

WR Van Jefferson, LAR (Wk. 3: @Buf.): Jefferson split the Rams’ WR3 snaps almost evenly with Josh Reynolds in week 1, but in week 2 he was out-snapped 42-to-26. That didn’t stop him from outproducing Reynolds with a 4-45 line on 5 targets (Reynolds went 2-33 on 2). Some of that target volume was undoubtedly the result of Robert Woods facing off with Darius Slay (Woods was targeted just 5 times), and although Woods gets another tough matchup this week in Tre’Davious White, it’ll be tough to rely on Jefferson unless he fully takes over the WR3 role. Jefferson doesn’t have a picnic of a matchup himself facing off with Levi Wallace, who was Pro Football Focus’s highest graded rookie cornerback a year ago. Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee are the Rams’ pass-catchers to target this week.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 3: @NYG): Aiyuk’s debut was mostly inauspicious. He played 72% of the team’s snaps but was targeted just 3 times and finished with 2 catches for 21 yards. The offense will look a bit different this week with Nick Mullens under center and the combo of Jerick McKinnon and Jeffrey Wilson Jr. splitting the backfield duties. George Kittle could be out again as well. I’d look for the Niners to have a conservative game plan, but it’s hard to know exactly what that will look like. I’d probably avoid any 49ers for your lineups this week aside from Kittle (if he plays), Jordan Reed (if Kittle doesn’t play), and the two running backs I mentioned. You can’t trust Aiyuk to have a useful fantasy day based on what we saw last week.

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 3: vs. LAR): Davis is playing more snaps than you would expect for a number 4 wide receiver, but it isn’t translating to targets yet. Josh Allen has thrown the ball 81 times for 729 yards and 6 scores through two weeks, but Davis has seen just 3 of those targets and turned them into 3-22-1. The matchup this week should involve Jalen Ramsey following Stefon Diggs all over the field, so it could result in a little bit more volume for everyone else, but it would take a pretty sizable bump in volume to make Davis anything more than a TD dart throw. He remains a guy worth stashing in dynasty leagues though.

WR John Hightower, PHI (Wk. 3: vs. Cin.): With the news that Jalen Reagor has a torn ligament in his thumb Wednesday, Hightower is once again worth mentioning this week. He played 40% of the snaps in week 1 with everyone healthy, but that was with both Reagor and DeSean Jackson being limited to little more than half of the offensive snaps each. Week 2 saw Jackson and Reagor both function as closer to full-time players and the rest of the receiver group fighting for scraps. With Reagor sidelined, I expect to still see a lot of Jackson, and aside from him a mix of JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Greg Ward & Hightower. With the Bengals likely to be without Geno Atkins & Mike Daniels at DT, look for Philly to play a lot of 2-TE sets and run the ball a ton. They’ll be eager to take a bit of the load off of Carson Wentz given how he’s played the first two weeks. For Hightower to return value this week, he’ll probably have to catch a deep ball or two, but his average target depth in week 1 was just 8 yards. I’d avoid him even as a bargain basement DFS play.

WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 3: @Ari.): Kenny Golladay practiced in full on Wednesday and should be good to go for this weekend’s tilt with the Cardinals. Cephus has been on the field more than 70% of the Lions’ snaps with Golladay out the first two weeks, but that number is going to drop drastically this week assuming Kenny G returns. Cephus has lined up in the slot on just 9 snaps. Danny Amendola will continue to serve as the team’s slot receiver with Golladay and Marvin Jones on the outside. Quintez will likely only see a handful of snaps and should be left out of any fantasy lineups this week.

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 3: vs. Was.): Bryant was on the field for more than 50% of the Browns’ offensive snaps last week and gets to face a Washington team that has allowed the 8^th-most tight end points per game so far, but he just isn’t seeing the ball come his way enough to be useful. He’ll do just enough to be annoying to people starting Austin Hooper. The Browns’ offense is too run-heavy right now to be targeting either tight end for fantasy.

TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 3: @Atl.): I’m sure you already know better on this one, but I wanted to make sure you know to not get cute just because the Falcons couldn’t defend Dalton Schultz last Sunday. Kmet is still the Bears #3 tight end, and he should be nowhere near your fantasy lineups.

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, & Cheap DFS Options:

RB JaMycal Hasty, SF (Wk. 3: @NYG): Don’t throw Hasty into your lineups for week 3, but he’s an interesting guy to possibly scoop up in dynasty leagues with the injuries to Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman. Hasty is likely to be promoted from the practice squad for this game, and I’d expect him to see at least a few touches. If he manages to impress with those touches he could ascend the depth chart quickly and possibly have a useful week or two in this very running back-friendly offense. He’s a shifty back that can be more dynamic than Jeff Wilson. He’s a player to monitor in deep dynasty leagues if he gets the call-up.

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 3: @Phi.): Higgins saw a huge jump in playing time in week 2 with Auden Tate a surprising healthy scratch. I’d expect that to be the case again this week, and he’ll get the most favorable matchup of the receivers. Tyler Boyd will get Nickell Robey-Coleman in the slot, and AJ Green is likely to face off with Darius Slay. Higgins meanwhile will tangle with Avante Maddox. Higgins posted 3-35 on 6 targets last week, and so long as Burrow doesn’t have tunnel vision for AJ Green again, I expect the rookie to exceed that easily. He costs just $3,900 on DraftKings.

WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 3: vs. TB): With the news that Courtland Sutton is out for the season, Hamler suddenly finds himself to be a much bigger part of Denver’s plans. He was an explosive playmaker in college, and new QB Jeff Driskel has shown flashes of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s YOLO style back when he was in Detroit. This week isn’t an ideal matchup for Hamler since he will likely see a lot of ascending star CB Carlton Davis (Jerry Jeudy has worked mostly from the slot and is likely to avoid Davis), but Driskel targeted Hamler 7 times last week after coming on in relief of Lock. Driskel averaged 8.2 intended yards per attempt last year, which would’ve put him in the top half of all QBs if he played enough to qualify, and he was at 12.4 intended yards per attempt on Sunday. Hamler is a bit of a shoot the moon option this week as a minimum-priced WR on DraftKings. He also shouldn’t be on your league’s waiver wire in 12-team leagues.

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 3: @Atl.): Mooney’s impressive week 1 performance did in fact lead to more playing time in week 2. The Bears were comfortable enough with Mooney that they made Ted Ginn a healthy scratch for week 2 and let Mooney play 60% of the offensive snaps. Atlanta is an inviting matchup for receivers. Both Atlanta games this season have turned into shootouts with over 700 yards of combined passing offense in each. I don’t know that Chicago has the firepower to make that 3 in a row, but I like Mooney’s chances at a surprisingly solid week. I’d expect him to have a season-high in catches and yards, and he’s a sneaky flex option for deep leagues and costs the minimum in DraftKings. 

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you make some of your tougher lineup decisions involving rookies. It’ll be especially important this week to keep an eye on the injury report. There are a lot of statuses still up in the air as of this writing. Make sure you’re vigilant enough that you don’t start any inactive players, and make sure that whoever you put in your flex spot is the player in your lineup who plays the latest game of the week at his position. You don’t want to stuck without a fallback if a player is a last minute scratch like Tyrod Tylor or James White (condolences to him and his family this week). Feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.