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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re now a third of the way through the NFL season, and by now you have an idea if your team is a contender or has some work to do to get back in the hunt. Week 7 could be a crucial one for fantasy leagues. We’ve seen weeks with 6 teams on a bye before, but all the high-end fantasy players sitting in week 7 have had many in the fantasy community dubbing this week the ‘bye-pocalypse’, ‘bye-nado’, ‘bye-mageddon’, ‘bye-palooza’, and maybe my personal favorite, ‘bye-gnarok.’ Finding a way to navigate all the byes and field a lineup that can still compete and win this week is a challenge, but a win this week will feel extra rewarding. There are plenty of rookies who can help you shore up your incomplete lineups. Pretty much anyone with a pulse is in play this week, so some of the borderline and sleeper options may be deeper names than you’re used to seeing there. You may need a shower after you set your lineup this week, but hopefully some of my words can make you feel less gross about starting some of these guys.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 7…

Rookies to Start:

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 7: @NYG): Hubbard has been functioning as the Panthers’ lead back for 4 games now, and he’s topped 65 scrimmage yards and touched the ball at least 14 times in all of them, and head coach Matt Rhule came out this week and said the Panthers need to run the ball more. Hubbard hasn’t been great in the passing game and has been ceding 3^rd down snaps to Royce Freeman, but that hasn’t been a problem for his fantasy performances. He’s handled 53 of the team’s 60 RB rushing attempts in the 3 games McCaffrey has missed. As long as game scripts are at least neutral, Hubbard should get plenty of volume. The Panthers’ next 3 opponents are the Giants, Falcons and Patriots, none of whom have more than 2 wins. This week’s opponent, the Giants, have allowed the 7^th-most RB points per game and rank 27^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Hubbard is a top-15 RB option this week in this plus matchup.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 7: @Bal.): In case you aren’t already treating him as such, Chase has officially ascended to must-start territory. Through 6 games, he’s topped 75 receiving yards and/or scored a touchdown in every game this season. The Ravens allow the 7^th-fewest WR points per game, and rank a middling 16^th in pass defense DVOA, but you should be starting Chase regardless of matchups. There’s bound to be a down week or two at some point, but he has 20-point upside each and every week.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 7: vs. Atl.): Waddle has now played in two full games with Tua Tagovailoa as his starting QB. He’s seen a 24.3% target share in those games and topped 16 PPR points in each. It’s true that most of those targets came last Sunday with DeVante Parker sidelined, but the Dolphins’ tight ends were targeted 15 times in that game as well. Assuming he plays, I’d expect most of Parker’s workload this week to come from Mike Gesicki and Durham Smythe. The Falcons allow the 8^th-most WR points per game, and Waddle is clearly going to see targets. He’s a high-floor WR3 in PPR leagues this week.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 7: @Mia.): Pitts had the breakout game we were all waiting for in London heading into Atlanta’s bye week, but will he continue to produce at a high level with Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage returning this week? That remains to be seen, but you have to get him into the lineup anyway. The rookie has seen 6 or more targets in 4 of his 5 games this season and gets to face a Miami defense that is allowing the 16^th-most TE points per game. It isn’t a cake matchup, but it isn’t a tough one either. Pitts should be a top-10 TE play this week.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 7: vs. NYJ): My listing of Jones as a borderline rookie applies only to 2-QB and superflex leagues. You shouldn’t be considering him in any 1-QB formats. The Jets have allowed the 4^th-fewest QB points per game, but that’s mostly because they haven’t played many high-powered offenses, and teams have scored on the ground rather than through the air against them. They’ve allowed 7 rushing TDs, and just 4 through the air. The Jets have forced just 1 QB turnover through 5 games and rank a middling 16^th in pass defense DVOA. They’re the only team Mac Jones failed to throw a TD against so far, and I’d expect him to correct that this week. Don’t expect a high-volume effort from Mac, but he’s probably going to finish the week as a mid-range QB2.

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 7: vs. Ind.): Week 5 seemingly put to rest any debates about what the 49ers backfield split is going to look like going forward. Mitchell has a stranglehold on the early down work (he handled 75% of the non-Trey Lance rushing attempts against Arizona), and Kyle Juszczyk will mix in on passing downs and play some traditional fullback. Trey Sermon was on the field for just 2 offensive snaps in week 5. The Colts aren’t an easy team to run against, ranking 1^st in run defense DVOA, but the 49ers are going to run the football, and with Jimmy G back under center, the bulk of those attempts will likely go to Mitchell. He’s a better play in non-PPR formats, but his expected volume in the bye-palooza week makes him a solid RB3 option against the Colts.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 7: @Cle.): Williams continues to make at least one “Wow” play seemingly every week, but it still hasn’t pushed him ahead of Melvin Gordon on the depth chart. The rookie has been making the most of his opportunities, averaging nearly 70 scrimmage yards per game in his last 4 outings with at least 3 receptions each week, and the Broncos have a chance to control the game script this week with the Browns starting most of their second-string offense. Despite that situation, I’d pump the brakes before getting too excited about Javonte. The Browns rank 3^rd in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 2nd-fewest RB points per game, and Williams is still splitting the backfield with Melvin Gordon. He’s a reasonable fill-in if you’re fighting through byes, but I would treat him as an RB3 option with limited upside in what should be an ugly game. This game has the lowest over/under total of the week.

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 7: @TB): Herbert worked wonders for fantasy managers who rolled him out in starting lineups last week, finishing with 112 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, but you may be playing with fire if you decide to get him in your lineup again this week. I originally expected Damien Williams to return this week, but it turns out that he’s unvaccinated and probably going to miss another game on the Covid list. Tampa Bay has allowed just 2 running backs to reach 50 yards on the ground against them all year, and none to reach 70, so Herbert is unlikely to pile up a big rushing yardage day. They’ve also allowed just 1 RB rushing score for the season. If you start Herbert, you’re counting on him getting some receiving work, which Dame’s absence opens the door for. The Bucs do allow 7.5 running back receptions per game. Herbert didn’t see much receiving work in college and saw just an 11% target share as the lead back last week, but he was in a route on 80% of the Bears’ pass plays. The bye-palooza, and Williams’ expected absence make Herbert an upside RB3 this week. If you’re deciding between Herbert and Javonte Williams, Javonte probably has a safer floor, but Herbert has a higher ceiling.

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 7:  @NE): This is probably not a game you want to target for fantasy, but Carter has handled 55% of the Jets’ RB touches over the last 4 games, and his best game of the season so far came against these Patriots in week 2, where he totaled 88 scrimmage yards on 13 touches. Don’t get carried away here. The Patriots rank 9^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 13^th-fewest RB points per game, so the matchup isn’t great, but Carter is in play with so many byes across the league this week. He’s a low-end RB3 option in Foxboro.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 7: @LV): Smith was a big letdown last week in a potential blow-up spot against Tampa Bay, and there’s no guarantee he bounces back in this one. I do expect his volume to get back to the level we’ve grown accustomed to – week 6 was the first time all season that Smith was targeted fewer than 6 times – but this matchup isn’t an easy one. The Raiders have allowed the 6^th-fewest WR points per game, and Smith will spend a lot of his day squaring off with Casey Hayward. Hayward has proven to be one of the best free agent signings of the offseason, allowing just 3.2 yards per target and a 51.3 passer rating on throws into his coverage. He also boasts Pro Football Focus’ highest coverage grade among all cornerbacks this season. Smith is still in play as a WR3/4 option, especially with all the byes this week. He won’t be matched up with Hayward on every play. Just keep in mind that his floor isn’t all that safe this week.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 7: @LAR): The ‘Sun God’ posted his worst fantasy performance of October last Sunday, but it was the 3^rd consecutive week where he’s seen at least 7 targets and hauled in 5+ receptions. His passing game role has been consistent, and should be again, even in this tough matchup. The Rams rank 4^th in pass defense DVOA but have allowed the 15^th-most WR points per game. Garbage time has helped teams put up passing points against them, and it’s hard to imagine the Lions not having a lot of garbage time. The Rams are favored by 15 points in this one. St. Brown may spend some time matched up with Jalen Ramsey, but I wouldn’t let that scare me away from him if you’re considering starting him. I’d view ARSB as a floor play WR4 in PPR leagues.

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 7: vs. Cin.): Bateman made his return from IR last week, and immediately stepped into a 22% target share in his first game back. I wouldn’t expect that to hold every week, but I expect him to carve out a role as one of the top-3 pass catchers on this team with Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown. Cincinnati isn’t an easy WR matchup. The Bengals allow the 12^th-fewest WR points per game and rank 8^th in pass defense DVOA, but both of those marks are worse than the Charger defense he faced last week. I’d look for another 5-7 targets for Bateman this week and think he’s an upside WR4 option if you’re hurting for WR help.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 7: @NE): Wilson has had two weeks to shake off his miserable day in London against the Falcons, but you can’t look to him as an option this week even in 2-QB leagues. I’d love to see the BYU product post a bounce back game in Foxboro, but he threw 4 interceptions the last time he faced the Patriots and has been picked at least once in all 5 of his starts. I’d be more inclined to start Case Keenum tonight if I was desperate in a 2-QB league rather than roll Wilson out in any lineups.

QB Davis Mills, ARI (Wk. 7: @Ari.): Mills has started 4 games so far this season. One of them was a magical performance against the New England Patriots where he topped 300 yards and threw 3 TDs on his way to nearly 25 fantasy points. In the other three he’s averaged just over 6 fantasy points per game. The Cardinals rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA, and the Texans have a pathetic implied total of just 14.5 points. Anything over 10 fantasy points should be seen as a win for Mills in this one.

QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 7: vs. Ind.): If you were thinking of starting Lance this week, you probably won’t get the chance. Trey is expected to be out this week dealing with an injury suffered against the Cardinals in week 5. Expect Jimmy Garoppolo to get the start.

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 7: @LV): Gainwell has some upside against a Vegas defense that has allowed the 13^th-most RB points per game, but I don’t see how you can roll him out in lineups this week after he saw just 28 snaps, 2 carries, and 5 targets in the last 2 weeks combined. Offensive coordinator Shane Steichen said this week that they need to get Miles Sanders more involved in the offense. That comment isn’t reassuring if you were hoping Gainwell’s usage would tick back up this week. I’d keep him parked on the bench, even in the bye-pocalypse.

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 7: vs. Den.): The Browns have officially ruled out Nick Chubb for Thursday night’s game against the Broncos, and have placed Kareem Hunt on IR, so it’ll be Felton and D’Ernest Johnson left to man the Browns’ backfield this week. If you’re looking for a Browns’ running back as a fill-in for a player on a bye, D’Ernest is the one you want. Felton has played more snaps than Johnson this season, but he’s spent just 2 of them lined up in the backfield, and 31 of them lined up in the slot or out wide. Johnson, on the other hand, has spent all of his snaps in the backfield, and handled the running back snaps after Hunt went down last weekend. Denver looks like a daunting run defense on paper, allowing the 5^th-fewest RB points per game, but they’ve allowed over 50 scrimmage yards and a touchdown to 4 different backs in the last 3 games. The bulk of that damage has come on the ground, and D’Ernest figures to see the bulk of the rushing work, with Felton likely handling passing downs. The Broncos allow the fewest RB receptions, and 2^nd-fewest RB receiving yards per game. Felton is only worth considering if you’re very desperate in a full PPR league.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 7: @Bal.): Don’t Chase last week’s points with Evans. The rookie had his best game as a pro and doubled his total snap count for the season, but most of those snaps and 5 of his 7 touches came with the Bengals leading by 17+ points. He did manage to find the end zone on his first touch of the game, and his increased opportunity is undoubtedly a good sign, but this is still Joe Mixon’s backfield. The Bengals are highly unlikely to post another blowout this week against the Ravens. If Evans continues to see an increased workload on passing downs, there is a sliver of hope for him. The Ravens allow the 2^nd most RB receiving yards per game. I wouldn’t count on more than 3 receptions or so for the rookie though.

RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 7: vs. Ind.): Sermon has been on the field for three snaps in the games this season that Elijah Mitchell has been active for. While I expect him to play at least a little more than that going forward, he’s not seeing the field enough for consideration in your fantasy lineups, even in a week like this.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 7: vs. Hou.): Moore played his highest snap share of the season in week 6, but he continued to show that he’s going to be a boom-or-bust option from week to week. He’s averaged 93 scrimmage yards in his three ‘boom’ games, and 22 per game in his 3 ‘bust’ performances. Pretty much every offensive weapon on the Cardinals is capable of a boom game against the hapless Texans, as Arizona is an 18.5-point favorite with a 33-point implied total, but I would still bet against a big game from Moore. The Cardinals have been creative in getting Rondale involved, giving him 8 rushing attempts in the last 3 weeks, but the ways the Cards deploy him are less likely to lead to big things this week. 85% of Rondale’s targets in the passing game have been 9 yards or fewer downfield, and more than half of them have been behind the line of scrimmage. The Texans have allowed the 5^th-fewest yards after the catch in the league. Rondale has long odds of posting a big yardage day on the type of targets he’s been seeing. He’s a volatile WR4 option in deeper leagues this week.

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 7: vs. Car.): As of now, I’m operating under the assumption that Toney isn’t going to play against the Panthers. He played last week despite a ‘questionable’ tag and didn’t make it through the first quarter before being ruled out for the day. The Giants would be wise to give him the week off and hope he’s able to come back at full strength in week 8. If he does suit up this week, he’s in play as an upside WR4 option against a Panther defense that allows 10^th-fewest WR points per game.

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 7: @NE): Moore is going to post a big game eventually, but to-date he’s only reached 25 or more receiving yards one time. That one time was against these Patriots in week 2, but he finished with just 4 catches for 47 yards on 8 targets in that game, hardly a useful fantasy line. Moore missed week 4 with a concussion before returning for the London game in week 5, and he saw just 2 targets in that game with Jamison Crowder back in the mix. It was the first time Moore and Crowder both played in the same game. I’m going to need to see him be more active than that with Crowder around before I consider Elijah for lineups again.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 7: @Ari.): Collins was back in action last weekend after being activated from injured reserve, and he actually posted a respectable game with 4 catches and 44 yards on 6 targets. Collins shared playing time with Chris Moore and Chris Conley behind Brandin Cooks. I wouldn’t look to get him into lineups, but he’s worth monitoring to see if those targets continue going forward. He could even be a sneaky dart throw this week for limited slate DFS tournaments. The Cardinals have a solid pass defense that ranks 2^nd in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve given up the 11^th-most WR points per game thanks to a lot of garbage time against them. Arizona has allowed 3 WRs to score 16+ fantasy points against them this year – KJ Osborn, Van Jefferson, and Donovan Peoples-Jones. It hasn’t been the primary receivers who have put up the biggest days against the Cardinals.   

WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 7: @GB): Brown had his biggest opportunity to make an impact of the season so far against the Chiefs last week and failed to do so. Kansas City has been bleeding big plays in the passing game, but Taylor Heinicke’s deep throws to Dyami continued to not connect. Dyami saw 6 targets in the game that totaled 80 air yards. The three that he caught accounted for 21 of those air yards. The 3 that he didn’t catch accounted for 59. This week’s opponent, the Packers, have allowed the 3^rd-fewest completions of 20+ yards this season. Don’t look for Brown to get on track this week. The absence of Jaire Alexander may even hurt Brown, as it means Terry McLaurin will have a more favorable matchup.

WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 7: vs. Den.): I was tempted to list Schwartz as a sleeper this week with Odell Beckham Jr. potentially sidelined, but the return of Jarvis Landry likely saps any sneaky upside the rookie had in this one. Schwartz was used as a downfield threat in week 1 when Beckham was out, and Denver has allowed the 2^nd-most 40+ yard completions in the league so far. With Landry active, Schwartz is nothing more than a dart throw in showdown DFS tournaments.

WRs Terrace Marshall Jr. & Shi Smith, CAR (Wk. 7: @NYG): Marshall exited last week’s game against the Vikings after suffering a concussion, and his status for week 7 remains up in the air. Even if he’s able to return this week, he’s garnered more than 3 targets just once in the last 5 games. If Marshall is out, fellow rookie Shi Smith is likely to step into the WR3 role. The Giants aren’t an imposing defense, allowing the 12^th-most WR points per game, but Smith would be unlikely to see any more volume than Marshall had been seeing. Both are best left out of lineups.

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 7: @NYG): Tremble’s playing time has been headed in the right direction, as his snap share increased to a season-high 51% in week 6, but targets and fantasy production haven’t followed with it. Tremble has been targeted just 7 total times in the three games since Dan Arnold was traded to Jacksonville. That limited volume isn’t worth chasing this week. The Giants are a decent matchup for tight ends, allowing the 12^th-most points per game to the position, but Tremble is unlikely to take advantage.

TE Jack Stoll, PHI (Wk. 7: @LV): Chances are you aren’t familiar with the name Jack Stoll, but after Zach Ertz was traded to the Arizona Cardinals this week, the undrafted rookie is the only tight end on the Eagles’ roster beyond Dallas Goedert. In the season’s first 6 weeks, Philly lined up with multiple tight ends on the field on 27% of their plays, so Stoll may see an increased role moving forward, but it won’t be a fantasy relevant role. His spot as the TE2 on the depth chart could be short lived. The Eagles have signed Richard Rodgers to their practice squad and opened the practice window for Tyree Jackson this week to potentially return from injured reserve. There’s no reason to give any consideration to Stoll at this point, even in the deepest of leagues.

Rookies on bye in week 7: QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX, RB Najee Harris, PIT, RB Larry Rountree III, LAC, WR Josh Palmer, LAC, TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 7: @TB): If the Bears want to have success against the Bucs, they’re going to have to ask Justin Fields to throw the ball more. They’re not going to find much success running the ball against them, and the Bucs have allowed 275+ passing yards in 5 of their first 6 games. Fields hasn’t attempted 30 passes in a game yet and has been abysmal for fantasy purposes, but this game figures to be his highest volume passing day yet and we finally saw him start to use his legs last week and add points with rushing yards. The Bucs have allowed the 4^th-most QB points per game. You shouldn’t be scared to put Fields in as your QB2 this week in superflex leagues if your options are limited.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 7: vs. NYJ): Stevenson seems to have gotten himself out of the Belichick doghouse and finds himself in a favorable spot this week. The Patriots are a touchdown favorite over a Jets team that allows the 2^nd-most RB points per game. Damien Harris is going to lead the way in this backfield, but Stevenson should see a fair number of opportunities as well. It was a pleasant surprise to see Rhamondre running downfield receiving routes in Dallas last weekend, and if receiving usage continues, he’s going to have some unexpected upside. The rookie wouldn’t be my first choice as a starter this week, but he’s not a terrible option if you’re desperate.

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 7: @GB): Antonio Gibson has been dealing with a shin injury all season without missing a game, but he does seem to be in real jeopardy of missing this week’s tilt with the Packers after aggravating it last weekend. If Gibson is out, Patterson will have a chance at a significant role sharing the backfield with JD McKissic. McKissic is best utilized as a satellite receiving back, and that could leave a lot of the early down rushing work to Patterson. We saw what Khalil Herbert did last weekend to this Green Bay defense that ranks 30^th in run defense DVOA. I don’t expect Patterson to have that kind of game, but 50+ yards isn’t out of the question if Gibson sits. I’d view him as more of a desperation play than anything, but this week there are some desperate fantasy managers.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve arrived at the part of the season a lot of fantasy managers dread: the bye weeks. The Saints, 49ers, Falcons and Jets all have the week off, so teams may be reaching a little deeper into the player pool for usable options, and there’s a chance that a rookie could help you fill in for a trusted starter like Deebo Samuel or Cordarrelle Patterson. Week 5 was a wild one for the rookie crop. Davis Mills stunned us all by finishing as the QB6 for the week and posting the best fantasy game by a rookie QB against New England of Bill Belichick’s entire run with the Pats. Trevor Lawrence also finished the week as a QB1, while Trey Lance posted a reasonable debut in which he rushed for 89 yards. The rest of the rookie QBs each posted clunkers, none more disappointing than Zach Wilson against the Falcons in London.

Kadarius Toney, Kyle Pitts and Ja’Marr Chase were the stories of the week among the skill position rookies. Toney and Pitts each posted breakout games that landed them at the WR7 and TE3 spots for the week respectively, while Chase kept doing what he’s been doing all season. Ja’Marr has been doing things that only he and Randy Moss have done to start their careers at such a young age. Can these guys keep it up? What other rookies can step up in week 6? You’ve come to the right place to find out.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 6…

Rookies to Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 6: vs. Sea.): Harris finally had the kind of breakout rushing game that we’ve been waiting for in week 5, torching what had been a good Denver run defense for 122 yards and a score. The usage continues to be elite (89% of the team RB touches to date), and he gets a tasty matchup in week 6. The Seahawks have allowed the 3^rd-most RB points per game so far this season, and Harris has finished as a top-10 back in 4 straight weeks. There’s no need to overthink this one. Harris deserves consideration for the captain spot in showdown lineups for this game.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 6: @Det.): Speaking of not overthinking things, Chase has topped a dozen fantasy points every single week and posted 3 top-15 performances in his first 5 games, and this week he gets to face a Detroit defense that ranks 27^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. Chase’s specialty thus far has been pulling in the deep throws, and it’s an area where Detroit has struggled defensively. He has a league leading four receptions of 40+ yards and his average reception comes 14.2 yards downfield, the 4^th highest mark in the league among qualified receivers. The average air yards per completion against the Lions is 9.15 yards. Every other defense in the league has an average below 8. My only concerns for Chase this week are that the Bengals might not have to throw the ball a lot, and that Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd may get some squeaky wheel treatment after both failed to reach 40 yards last week, but those are minor concerns. This week’s matchup really is perfect for Chase. He’s a top-15 option in Detroit.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 6: vs. TB): Tampa Bay’s defense this year has been the definition of the phrase ‘pass funnel.’ Opposing offenses have abandoned trying to run against the Bucs stout front early in games, dropping back to pass on nearly 71% of their plays (for context, the Bucs have the most pass-heavy offense in the league and drop back to throw on 69.7% of their plays). All of that passing by their opponents has led to some big fantasy days for wide receivers against the Bucs. Tampa has allowed the 2^nd-most WR points per game this season and has coughed up at least 275 passing yards to every team they’ve faced so far. For the season, Smith has commanded 23% of the Eagles’ passing targets and 41% of the air yards. One major area the Bucs have struggled is in allowing yards after the catch, and that isn’t an area where DeVonta has shined, but this game still has blow-up potential for the rookie. He should be treated as a WR2 this week and may be worth paying up for in showdown slates for Thursday night.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 6: vs. Dal.): Jones posted another efficient performance in week 5 that doesn’t light up fantasy box scores. He did throw one interception but completed over 76% of his passes and posted his highest yards per attempt mark of the season at 7.7. He’s now completed over 73% of his passes in 4 of his 5 games and thrown for 270+ yards in 3 of them. This week he faces a Dallas defense that has spent a lot of time playing with the lead and has coughed up a lot of passing yards as a result. The Giants were the first team all season to not throw for 300 yards against them…finishing with 294. They’ve given up crooked yardage totals each and every week, but also have 2 interceptions each and every week. It’s created an odd situation where they rank 7^th in pass defense DVOA but have allowed the 4^th-most QB points per game. Jones, like most QBs the Cowboys have faced, will likely have to throw a lot to keep pace. If he can avoid the turnovers that have plagued other QBs to face Dallas, he should finish as a strong QB2 this week.

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 6: vs. GB): With news breaking that Damien Williams was added to the Covid reserve list on Thursday, Herbert suddenly finds himself positioned for a strong opportunity against Green Bay this week. Tarik Cohen isn’t walking through that door any time soon for Chicago, so Herbert likely will play a workhorse role with Ryan Nall mixing in on occasion. Green Bay is a burnable run defense, ranking 29^th in run defense DVOA. They’ve been able to mask that issue with positive game scripts that keep their opponents throwing, but with Bill Lazor calling plays the Bears have had at least 16 RB rush attempts in 8 of 9 games, and 25+ attempts in 6 of 9 since the start of last season. I don’t expect them to put this game on Justin Fields’ shoulders. Herbert’s not much of a pass catcher, but he’s a virtual lock for 15+ carries in a solid matchup. He’s a low-end RB2 this week.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 6: vs. LV): Melvin Gordon had a new ailment pop up on the injury report this week, now dealing with a hip injury in addition to a leg contusion he was dealing with last week, but there’s no reason to think he’s going to miss this game. That likely means he and Williams will continue to split the backfield work evenly, making both uninspiring flex options that you hope get into the end zone. The Raiders do allow the 9^th-most RB points per game, and Williams has been the more impressive Denver back over the past couple weeks, so Williams is at least in play. He could be a very strong option if Denver is able to play from ahead, but it’s worth noting that since 2010 interim head coaches who take over in-season are 13-9 in their first game at the helm. That may not sound like a great winning percentage, but keep in mind that most of those teams were far below .500 for the season. There is a noticeable boost in that first game. Treat Javonte as an RB3 who has a reasonable floor in any case, and RB2 upside this week if the game script is in Denver’s favor.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 6: @Jax.): The expected return of Tua Tagovailoa should be a positive development for Waddle this week. Waddle’s season-high receiving mark of 61 yards was set in his only full game with Tua at QB, and that was the only game where he found the end zone as well. With Brissett under center, Waddle’s aDOT was around 4 yards, limiting the damage he could do without big volume. That mark was at 9.8 yards in week 1. It’s a small sample, but Tua showed a willingness to throw down the field that week that we just haven’t seen from Brissett. The matchup is a good one this week. Jacksonville ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA, and DeVante Parker may be sidelined again. That could add up to a lot of volume for Waddle. If Tua doesn’t return this week, treat the rookie as a dicey PPR flex option. If he does, I really like Waddle’s chances to top 60 yards for the second time this year and finish as a WR3 or better.

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. LAR): Toney broke out in a big way in week 5, piling up 10 catches and 189 yards on 13 targets with most of New York’s other pass catchers sidelined. It was the kind of performance where you can’t put the genie back in the bottle. Toney, long mocked as a terrible 1^st-round pick by GM Dave Gettleman & the Giants, showed that he’s too good to be sent back to the bench. It remains to be seen how the Giants will divvy up the WR opportunities as the rest of the WRs return, but Toney is going to be involved. This week, the Giants may get Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton back, so I wouldn’t look for Toney to be targeted 13 times again. He also may have to tangle with Jalen Ramsey a bunch in this one, and his starting QB is likely to be Mike Glennon. With the bye weeks hitting, Toney could be considered for a WR3 spot in lineups despite those things working against him, but you should come away happy if he gives you a repeat of what he did two weeks ago (6 catches for 78 yards).

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 6: @Cle.): The Cardinals flashed some creativity with Moore last week, getting him 3 rushing attempts to go along with his 6 targets, and Rondale posted his best game since week 2. He still hasn’t played more than 50% of the offensive snaps in any game though, and that additional usage last week could’ve been to help lighten the load on banged up running back Chase Edmonds. Moore may see his snaps increase if the Cards opt to play more 4-WR sets with TE Maxx Williams now out for the year, and speed has burned the Browns secondary this season. Two of the top-3 WR performances against them this year were by Tyreek Hill and Brandin Cooks, and Moore fits a similar size/speed mold. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3 this week in Cleveland.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 6: vs. Mia.): Lawrence has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks after piling up turnovers in his first 3 starts, but he’s not seeing enough volume to be trusted as an auto-start in 2-QB leagues. He threw the ball 51 times in the opener as Jacksonville chased points against the Texans, but he’s attempted fewer than 35 passes in every game since and averaged just 204 passing yards per game in those contests. He’s padded his fantasy production with rushing scores in each of the past two weeks, but those are hard to rely on. Miami isn’t the type of team that I’d expect to blow the Jaguars out, so I’d expect Lawrence’s volume to be modest again. The Dolphins haven’t been a good defense against QBs, allowing the 6^th-most points per game to the position, but only Tom Brady (QB3) and Derek Carr (QB11) have finished higher than the QB20 against Miami in any individual game. I’d treat Lawrence as a low-end QB2 for fantasy this week.

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 6: vs. GB): Through his first 3 NFL starts, Justin Fields has averaged just 19 passing attempts and 144 passing yards per game. He’s thrown just 1 total touchdown and run for 25 total yards. Those aren’t the kind of numbers you can trust in a fantasy lineup, even though there are things working in his favor this week. The Bears are a 4.5-point underdog, so it’s likely that Fields will have to throw more than we’ve seen in the last 3 weeks, and the Packers are still without top cover man Jaire Alexander. They allowed 20 fantasy points to Joe Burrow last week in their first game without Alexander. It wouldn’t shock me if Fields posts his best fantasy day of the year, but if he’s not going to use his legs and give you a rushing floor, you can’t count on getting enough points from his arm to warrant starting him.

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 6: vs. Min.): Christian McCaffrey’s absence seems almost certain to end this week, which means Hubbard goes back to handcuff status. There’s a chance the Panthers don’t give CMC a full workload the first game back out there, but I wouldn’t want to start Chuba in a part time role, even against a suspect Vikings defense. Minnesota has allowed the 12^th-most RB points per game and rank 20^th in run defense DVOA. They’re a good matchup for running backs, but not a great one. If CMC is held out another week, treat Hubbard like a borderline RB2/RB3.

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 6: vs. Ari.): I only mention Felton at all because Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb aren’t practicing as of Thursday. If by some chance both players sit, I’d expect D’Ernest Johnson to handle the bulk of the backfield work, with Felton mixing in on passing downs. The Cardinals have allowed the 8^th-fewest RB points per game, and fewer than 5 receptions per game to the position. I’d have a hard time convincing myself to get Felton into lineups anywhere unless I were desperate, even if both starters are out.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 6: vs. Dal.): Stevenson went from being a healthy scratch 3 weeks in a row to handling 11 carries in week 5. He didn’t do much with them, logging just 23 yards. One positive to take away for Stevenson is that he, unlike his teammate Damien Harris, did not fumble the ball away at the 1-yard line last week. It was the second fumble of the year at a critical moment by Harris, and there is no way Belichick allows him to continue to get those kinds of carries if that continues to happen. Harris was dealing with chest & rib injuries in that game that may have contributed to Rhamondre’s playing time, but he seems unlikely to miss week 6 despite not practicing Wednesday. It was reported by Ian Rapoport after the game that Harris “checked out ok.” If Harris is active, Stevenson is a bad option against a Dallas defense that has allowed the 7^th-fewest RB points per game and ranks 8^th in run defense DVOA. Devontae Booker is the only running back all year to get into the end zone against them. If Harris is inactive, I would view Rhamondre as more of a desperation flex play in non-PPR leagues. The Patriots should be chasing points against an explosive Dallas offense, so this shapes up to be a Brandon Bolden week.

RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 6: @Bal.): After logging 11 carries in week 4, Rountree didn’t play a single offensive snap in week 5. There were no reports of any injury or disciplinary reasons he was sidelined, so it appears that he’s simply lost the backup job to Joshua Kelley for the time being. There’s no reason to hold him as a handcuff in deeper leagues right now.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 6: @Det.): Evans did see a season-high number of snaps in week 5 with Joe Mixon on a snap count due to injury, but that amounted to just 7 snaps for the rookie. You can’t start him in any weeks where Mixon is active, no matter how deep the league.

RB Gary Brightwell, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. LAR): I mention Brightwell because Saquon Barkley is expected to be sidelined for at least 1 week, possibly longer. That doesn’t mean Brightwell is worth stashing. He’s arguably still 3^rd on the backfield depth chart behind Devontae Booker and Elijhaa Penny. Leave him on the waiver wire.

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 6: vs. LAC): I’ve mentioned Bateman as a stash each of the last two weeks, so hopefully you’ve already gone ahead and stashed him. If he’s still available in your league, he’s still worth picking up, but this is not a great week to expect a strong debut. The Chargers have allowed the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game and rank 11^th in pass defense DVOA. Bateman still costs the minimum on DraftKings, so if you want to live dangerously in a limited slate DFS tournament, feel free to roll the dice. It’s not something I would do though. I expect he’ll be eased back and faces a tough defense in his first game back.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 6: @Ind.): Even if he’s active this week, Nico’s unlikely to be useful for fantasy purposes. I’d expect Houston to ease him back in after he missed the last 3 weeks with injury, and he only played 55% of the offensive snaps and was targeted just 3 times in the 1 full game he did play. Chris Moore played well enough last week that he deserves to continue seeing snaps, and those snaps aren’t coming from Brandin Cooks. The Colts are a plus matchup for wide receivers, allowing the 8^th-most points per game to the position, but Collins shouldn’t be put into lineups against them this week.

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 6: vs. Min.): Marshall has reached 30 receiving yards just once all season despite playing more than half the offensive snaps each week. Minnesota is ranked an impressive 6^th in pass defense DVOA. This isn’t the week to expect Marshall to get on track.

WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 6: @Bal.): Palmer saw a season-high 3 targets in week 5, but he’s yet to play more than 25% of the offensive snaps in a game. He’s not on the fantasy radar right now.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 6: vs. Sea.): Freiermuth and Eric Ebron continue to split the tight work in the Steelers’ offense, minimizing the chance for either player to be useful for fantasy right now. Big Ben is targeting the position on less than 15% of his attempts, and the Freiermuth/Ebron duo has combined for just 4 red zone targets in 5 games. The Seahawks are hardly a formidable defensive matchup, but Freiermuth isn’t seeing consistent enough usage to be trusted as a TE streamer right now. He’s been targeted 3 times in the last 2 weeks.

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 6: vs. Min.): Tremble has found the end zone in 2 of the last 3 weeks, but he’s yet to play 40% of the offensive snaps in any game this season and has seen more than 1 target in a game just once. The Vikings have allowed the 10^th-fewest TE points per game and allowed zero touchdowns to the position. Steer clear of Tremble.

Rookies on bye in week 6: QB Trey Lance, SF, QB Zach Wilson, NYJ, RB Elijah Mitchell, SF, RB Trey Sermon, SF, RB Michael Carter, NYJ, WR Elijah Moore, NYJ, TE Kyle Pitts, ATL

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 6: @Ind.): You’re probably playing with fire if you play Mills in fantasy lineups the week after he put up what may end up being his best performance of the season, but he’s in a sneaky spot to have another strong game in week 6. The Colts have allowed the 3^rd-most QB points per game and rank 30^th in pass defense DVOA. They’ve also allowed multiple TD passes to every quarterback they’ve faced so far. No team has allowed a higher passer rating than the Colts, and they may be without standout corner Xavier Rhodes in this game as he’s in the concussion protocol. The Texans may have Nico Collins back as well, giving Mills another weapon to work with. It’ll take some cojones to start Mills; he’s a risky play, but one that could pay off. I wouldn’t start him in 1-QB leagues, but he’s an upside QB2 option this week. I’d be ringing the bell for him a lot harder if there were more prominent QBs on bye this week.

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 6: vs. TB): It’s been hard to rely on anything when it comes to the Philadelphia Eagles’ backfield usage so far this season, but this is a nice spot for Gainwell. The Bucs have stifled opposing rushers, allowing fewer than 40 yards on the ground per game, but have allowed the most RB receptions per game and 4^th most RB receiving yards in the league. Gainwell has shared the receiving work with Miles Sanders, but if Philly falls in a hole expect to see a lot of Gainwell. He’s played 93% of the 2-minute offense snaps and has been targeted on more than a quarter of his routes run. If he’s on the field as much as I expect, 5+ receptions seem likely.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 6: vs. Cin.): St. Brown has emerged over the last two weeks as the most-targeted option in the Lions’ WR room, and the injury to Quintez Cephus last week should strengthen his hold on that role going forward. This week he faces off with the Bengals, who allow the 15^th-most WR points per game. He spends the vast majority of his time in the slot, where he’ll face off with Bengals’ slot corner Mike Hilton. Hilton has allowed a 76% completion percentage and 103.5 passer rating on throws into his coverage. No wide receiver is truly trustworthy in this offense, but St. Brown is in play in PPR leagues as a WR3/Flex option in this one.

WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 6: vs. KC): If there was ever a time for Brown to get on track, this is it. His early season usage before getting hurt in week 4 left a lot to be desired, but this offense is missing Logan Thomas, Curtis Samuel, and Cam Sims this week, and Brown seems to be on track to return to the lineup. Brown’s targets have been of the downfield variety (14.2-yard aDOT for the season), but those downfield throws haven’t connected. This week he faces off with a Kansas City defense that has allowed a league-high eight 40-yard completions and is coming off a week where they coughed up several deep balls to the Bills. Washington is a touchdown underdog, so passing volume should be plentiful. Brown’s deep ball skills in this matchup make him a quality dart throw in DFS tournaments at just $3,300 on DraftKings. He’s probably not trustworthy enough to use in season-long leagues unless you’re desperate.

TE Kylen Granson, IND (Wk. 6: vs. Hou.): Granson isn’t someone you should be running out to add in season-long leagues. He played just 8 snaps on Monday Night Football against the Ravens in week 6 after seeing 30 snaps the week before. The notable thing here is that he out-targeted Jack Doyle in both games despite playing many fewer snaps this past week. The Colts looked to get the ball into Granson’s hands when he was on the field, and Frank Reich isn’t afraid to use a lot of 2-tight end sets. Houston allows more tight end points per game than any other team in the league and has allowed scores to backups Tommy Tremble & Chris Manhertz, and 40+ receiving yards to James O’Shaughnessy & Harrison Bryant. Granson costs just $800 for the showdown slate on DraftKings, and I have a hunch he surprises in this one.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 4’s rookie headlines were dominated by the quarterbacks. Mac Jones played a hyper-efficient game and was a missed field goal away from stunning Tom Brady and the Bucs at Foxboro on Sunday night. Trey Lance relieved an injured Jimmy Garoppolo at halftime and posted over 20 fantasy points in a comeback attempt against Seattle. Trevor Lawrence nearly notched his first career win on Thursday (and then his head coach made headlines that overshadowed that performance), and Zach Wilson and Justin Fields did notch their first career victories on Sunday. Fields was much improved from his first start with Bill Lazor calling the plays, and Wilson played arguably his best game to-date. Fields has earned the starting job moving forward in Chicago.

It was a ho-hum week at the other positions. DeVonta Smith posted over 120 receiving yards in Big D while Kenneth Gainwell found the end zone for the second time this season. Ja’Marr Chase and Najee Harris each posted useful performances as well. Kadarius Toney made a big splash with two starters sidelined for Big Blue, and Trey Sermon topped 80 rushing yards for the 49ers. We’ll touch on all of these players and more as we take a look at what to expect from the rookie crop in week 5.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 5…

Rookies to Start:

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): Keep a close eye on the injury reports for Christian McCaffrey leading up the Panthers’ game Sunday. McCaffrey could be a true game-time decision, and if he plays you should disregard this entirely and keep him benched, but Hubbard is in line for a strong game if CMC’s hamstring injury keeps him sidelined another week. If you only look at the final numbers from last week, you may be concerned that Chuba was on the field for less than half of the offensive snaps. Don’t be. He was the clear lead back for the first 3 quarters and only gave way to Rodney Smith when they fell behind by 3 scores. He still finished the game with 15 touches and was heavily involved in the offense. The Panthers are a 3.5-point favorite this week and are unlikely to find themselves in a similar deep hole. The Eagles are a giving defense to running backs, allowing the 6^th-most points per game to the position and ranking 28^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. If Hubbard is the lead guy again this week, he has legit top-12 upside.

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Den.): I list Najee as a guy to start this week mostly because he’s still going to handle pretty much all of the Steelers’ backfield work. That gives him a weekly floor that’s nearly impossible to sit, but this is not going to be a ceiling week for the rookie. He should probably be left off DFS lineups as the 9^th-highest priced RB on DraftKings. The Broncos have been fortunate to not face many good running backs so far, and to catch Saquon Barkley as he was being eased back into the lineup in week 1, but they still rank 9^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the fewest RB points per game in the league. Najee’s production is usually buoyed by receiving work, but no back has topped 3 receptions against the Broncos in the first 4 weeks. Harris is more of a volume based RB2 play this week.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 5: vs. GB): Ja’Marr Chase gets the good fortune of facing the Green Bay Packers the week after Jaire Alexander went down with injury. Alexander’s injury will put a strain on the entire Green Bay secondary, and the Pack were already ranked just 20^th in pass defense DVOA with Alexander healthy. Tee Higgins may return this week, but Chase has reached double-digit fantasy points in every game so far, and Cincy will have to throw to keep pace with a Green Bay offense that’s averaging over 30 points scored per game in their last 3. Chase is a top-end WR3 this week with the upside for more.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 5: vs. NYJ (London)): Look, if you drafted Pitts in redraft leagues, I know you aren’t happy with the production so far, but you kind of have to ride it out for now. In shallower leagues, I wouldn’t have faulted people for toying with the idea of sitting him this week, but the news that Calvin Ridley won’t make the trip to London means you can’t do that. Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson are the two best weapons the Falcons have for that game, and both will have to be heavily involved if the Falcons want to compete. The Jets aren’t an easy matchup on paper. They’ve allowed the 8^th-fewest TE points per game and rank a middling 19^th in pass defense DVOA, but Pitts is running a route on 80% of the team’s dropbacks and averaging 6.5 targets per game. Don’t be shocked if this game isn’t a coming-out party for the rookie, but he should be a safe bet for 7+ targets. He’s a top-10 option at the position this week.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 5: vs. Atl. (London)): Just about everything that could’ve gone wrong for Wilson to start the season did go wrong. He lost his best offensive lineman to injury in week 1 and spent his first 3 games facing a gauntlet of defenses that all currently rank in the top-7 in pass defense DVOA, but he got a reprieve in week 4 against a bad Titans’ secondary, and he made the most of it. Wilson threw for nearly 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns on the way to his first career victory, and he gets an even more favorable matchup in week 5 against the Falcons in London. Atlanta has pressured the QB at the 3^rd-lowest rate in the league, allowed the highest opposing passer rating, and the 3^rd-most QB points per game. This is a golden opportunity for Wilson to string together back-to-back good games. There’s no reason he can’t match what he did last week, or possibly even exceed it, and I like his chances to finish as a top-15 QB for the week.

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 5: vs. Ten.): Lawrence played his best game of the season last week, even if his fantasy totals fell a few points short of what he did in week 1. He finally played a turnover-free game and had the Jaguars on the cusp of winning a game. This week he gets to face off with a Tennessee defense that just allowed Zach Wilson to log his best game of the season. Lawrence has an opportunity to push his way into high QB2 territory if the rushing output we’ve seen from the last couple weeks continues. He’s rushed for over 20 yards in each of the last 3 games. The Titans have allowed 3 of the 4 QB’s they’ve faced to put up more than 18 fantasy points, and I like Trevor’s chances to make it 4 of 5.

QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 5: @Ari.): It wasn’t always pretty, but Trey Lance’s first extended action of the season showed why he can be an exciting fantasy QB. Lance entered the game at halftime and managed to put up more than 20 fantasy points in just 2 quarters of action. Yes, he did this against a bad Seahawks’ defense that aided his effort by allowing a long, busted coverage TD, but it was still a promising performance for the rookie. It’s still up in the air whether he will start in week 5, but if he does, he should be treated as a mid-level QB2 even in a tougher matchup. The Cardinals have allowed the 9^th-fewest QB points per game and rank 3^rd in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve yet to face a dynamic runner like Lance. The defensive personnel is a little different this year, but the Cardinals allowed more QB rushing yards than any other team in the league a year ago (they’ve allowed the 7^th-most so far this year). Keep a close watch on the injury report throughout the week with Jimmy G, but don’t let the matchup scare you off starting Lance in 2-QB formats if he does get the nod.

RBs Trey Sermon & Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 5: @Ari.): I’m going to be really honest with you…I don’t have a good read on which 49ers’ back will lead the way this week if both are healthy. At this point, we still don’t know if Elijah Mitchell is going to get cleared to play. It makes things much easier if he isn’t. Sermon would be a strong RB3/Flex option in a matchup with a middling run defense in that case. The Cardinals rank 16^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 11^th-most RB rushing yards per game. The threat of Lance running the ball could open up even more running lanes for the backs this week. A popular refrain I’ve heard from the fantasy community this week is that the 49ers don’t trust Sermon to play on passing downs, opting to use Kyle Juszczyk instead. I don’t really see that as a problem for Sermon since he isn’t a back that’s going to catch many passes anyway. The same thing applies to Mitchell. Sermon ran for 89 yards on 19 carries against the Seahawks last week and could see similar volume this week if Mitchell is out. If Mitchell is going to play, you’re going to have to pay close attention to the beat writers to get a true sense of which back is going to be the guy. If there is a clear-cut lead guy, he’s going to be an RB3 option in non-PPR formats. If it isn’t clear, both become much more volatile plays. We know the 49ers are going to run the ball. We just need to know which back they’re going to do that with.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 5: @Pit.): Williams saw more snaps than Melvin Gordon for the first time all year in week 4 and logged his lowest touch total of the season in the process. The Broncos were playing from behind for the first time all year, and that limited the RB opportunities to go around. Both Williams and Gordon were efficient with their carries (over 6 ypc each), but they just didn’t get enough of them. The Steelers’ run defense looks tough on paper. They’ve allowed the 5^th-fewest RB points per game and rank 7^th in run defense DVOA, but they’ve also allowed 3 different backs to average 5 or more yards per carry on 10+ carries in the first 4 weeks. They can be run on. I expect Javonte to get back above 10 carries this week, but the big question for the rookie is will his receiving usage continue? He’s pulled in 3 receptions in each of the last two weeks. If he manages to do that again this week, I like his chances to finish as a solid RB3, even in the 50/50 split with Melvin.

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 5: vs. Atl. (London)): A matchup with the Falcons has a chance to be the ship that lifts all sails for the Jets’ offense, but I’d view Carter as more of a borderline option this week in deeper leagues. Atlanta is worse at defending the pass than the run, and he’ll still be splitting the backfield work with Ty Johnson. The Falcons have allowed the 11^th-most RB points per game, but Carter’s typical dozen or so touches make him more of an RB4 in this one.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 5: @TB): Things were looking up for Waddle in week 3 as he was targeted 13 times, but he came crashing back to earth last Sunday with just 4 targets in a loss to the Colts. The ingredients are in place for a bounce-back this week. Will Fuller is back on the shelf (on IR with a broken finger), and the Dolphins face a matchup where the run game isn’t likely to be successful against a stout Tampa Bay front. Short passes to Waddle should be part of the gameplan to offset their inability to run the ball. Waddle, DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki have been the top weapons in a limited target tree for Jacoby Brissett, and I’d expect Waddle to see the most opportunities of that trio in this matchup. Tampa Bay has allowed the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, and Miami should be throwing a lot as a 10-point underdog. Waddle is a solid WR3/Flex option in PPR leagues and could be a bargain in DraftKings lineups with a $4,800 price tag.

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 5: @Dal.): With starters Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton sidelined, Toney ran as the clear WR2 in this offense last weekend, and he made the most of his opportunity, hauling in 6 catches for 78 yards on 9 targets, and flashing his impressive run-after-catch skills. Both Slayton and Shepard are likely to be out again this week, so Toney should be in a similar role this Sunday. He’ll spend most of his time in the slot when the Giants go 3-wide, and he’ll mostly avoid Cowboys’ top corner Trevon Diggs, who has been a menace to QBs and receivers alike through the first four weeks. Jason Garrett hasn’t done a good job of getting Toney involved when everyone else is healthy, but he’s got no choice with others out. Kadarius should have a great chance to top 60 yards again in a matchup where the Giants will need to score to keep pace.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 5: @Car.): Smith got back on track last weekend, posting his first career 100-yard game, but I think it’s likely he takes a step backward this week. This figures to be a game where the Eagles won’t have to be quite so pass-happy, and the Panthers have allowed the 5^th-fewest WR points per game and rank 5^th in pass defense DVOA. You would think that their aggressive defensive style would allow some opportunities to beat the blitz with a big play, but just 6 teams have allowed fewer completions of 20+ yards than the Panthers. Smith is still going to see enough volume to be considered as a WR3/4 option, but I don’t expect him to be as efficient with that volume this week.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 5: @LV): Fields had a much better outing in his 2^nd turn as a starter than he did in his first, but his fantasy performance was lacking a bit as it was the running backs who put the ball in the end zone. Fields finished with fewer than 9 fantasy points despite a promising overall day. He was still named the full-time starter for the Bears going forward. This week he battles a Raiders’ defense that appears to be improved from last season. Casey Heyward has been a huge upgrade as their CB1, and Justin Herbert is the only QB who has tallied more than 1 TD in a game against them. Fields may be asked to throw a little more this week with David Montgomery sidelined, but I wouldn’t count on a big fantasy day. The Bears have been hesitant to unleash his running ability in his first couple starts, and until we see him use his legs it’s hard to count on those rushing bonus points. I think Fields will post his best fantasy game of the season this week…but it still isn’t enough to get him into realistic consideration for a QB2 spot for most teams.

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 5: @Hou.): Jones is coming off arguably the most effective performance of his young career last week against the Bucs…and he finished the week as the QB20. His style of play and the Patriots’ game plans just do not lend themselves to big fantasy days. Fewer than 30% of his completions on the year have gone for more than 10 yards, and he ranks 26^th in yards per attempt and 30^th in yards per completion among 31 qualified starters. The Texans look like a cake matchup on paper, but this is a matchup that calls for a heavy dose of Damien Harris and the run game. The Texans rank 8^th in pass defense DVOA, and 31^st in run defense DVOA. Houston has allowed the 6^th-most QB points per game so far, but a lot of those points came from Trevor Lawrence in garbage time, Sam Darnold rushing for 2 scores, and a top-4 QB in Josh Allen picking them apart last weekend. I wouldn’t count on Jones matching any of those performances. He should be treated as a low-upside, low-end QB2 this weekend. 

QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 5: vs. NE): Mills ran into a buzzsaw in Buffalo last weekend, finishing with 4 interceptions and fewer than 100 yards against the Bills, and I’m not sure things get much easier for him this week. The Texans may get Danny Amendola back for this one, but he won’t provide enough of a boost against a New England defense that has allowed the 4^th-fewest QB points per game. Tua Tagovailoa finished as the QB22 when he faced the Patriots in week 1. That’s the highest fantasy finish any QB has posted against them. I wouldn’t want to roll out Mills even as a desperation QB2 this week.

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 5: @Car.): Gainwell has spent the first month of the season being a thorn in the side of fantasy managers who drafted Miles Sanders. He’s vulture 2 red zone touchdowns and handled the valuable receiving work in the hurry-up offense late in games. I still wouldn’t start him this week. Philly should hang around a little longer in this one (just a 3.5-point underdog on the road) and the Panthers have done a great job of limiting RB production in 3 of their 4 games. The Cowboys’ RBs did get to them last week, but they did so without a single reception. Carolina is allowing just 2 running back catches per game so far, and if Gainwell isn’t seeing any volume in the receiving game, he’s unlikely to provide you much value. You’ll wind up hoping he scores a touchdown against a defense that has given up just 1 rushing score to backs on the season. Only Zeke Elliott has scored 7+ fantasy points against this defense.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 5: @Hou.): Stevenson remained inactive in week 4 despite the season-ending injury to James White the prior week. The Patriots made do with Damien Harris, Brandon Bolden and JJ Taylor on Sunday night, but a fumble by Taylor may have opened the door for Stevenson to be active again this week. This is a week where there could be significant garbage time against the Texans, but in a best-case scenario that probably means just a handful of carries for Rhamondre. The Texans rank 2^nd to last in run defense DVOA, so any opportunity to run against them could be useful, but I don’t see enough work for Stevenson in this one to get him into lineups anywhere.

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 5: @LAC): Felton has played just 20 snaps over the last 3 weeks. He’s been targeted with a pass on a ridiculously high 35% of those snaps and has a highlight-reel touchdown to boot, but until that usage comes up there aren’t any formats where Felton can be trusted.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 5: vs. SF): In week 4, for the second straight week, Rondale was in a route on less than 40% of the team dropbacks, had a 10% target share or lower, and finished outside the top-60 fantasy WRs. There are going to be spike weeks where he posts strong games, but they’re going to be hard to predict. The 49ers have been banged up in the secondary but have held up alright. They rank 18^th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 18^th-most WR points per game. I don’t see this as a week to take a shot on Moore in season-long leagues, and in DFS I prefer similarly priced options like Jaylen Waddle or Elijah Moore over Rondale this week. If Chase Edmonds is out, Moore might get a little boost in usage, so keep an eye on that situation if you’re still considering using Moore.

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): Marshall played his highest snap share of the season last Sunday, but it was also the first time all season that the Panthers were playing from behind, and he continues to see fewer snaps and routes run than Robby Anderson. I don’t expect the Panthers to fall significantly behind again this week, so I’d expect Marshall’s snap share to fall back closer to 60%, and his opponent in the slot, Avonte Maddox, has acquitted himself quite well this season in coverage. Maddox has allowed just a 75.2 passer rating on throws into his coverage and 4.8 yards per target. I’d keep Terrace sidelined again.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 5: @Min.): St. Brown saw a spike in playing time and targets last week, finishing with a 6-70 line on 8 targets as the Lions tried to come from behind in Chicago. I wouldn’t bank on a repeat performance this week. Starting center Frank Ragnow has already been ruled out, and the Lions are also expecting to be without standout rookie Penei Sewell at tackle. Jared Goff will be under fire from a Viking defense that ranks 7^th in the league in pressure rate. It’s going to be tough for the passing game to establish much of a rhythm, and I’d expect most of the receiving success to be had by the running backs and TJ Hockenson. I’d keep ARSB sidelined this week despite his strong performance against Chicago.

WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. NO): Brown suffered a knee injury last week that has kept him out of practice through Wednesday. When he’s been active, he’s totaled just 47 scrimmage yards in 4 games. You can’t play him this week whether he suits up or not.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Den.): Freiermuth continues to play about half of the team’s offensive snaps, but his targets have been inconsistent week-to-week. In weeks where the Steelers have their full complement of weapons available, I wouldn’t count on more than a couple targets going the rookie’s way, and you’re basically crossing your fingers that he finds the end zone. Denver has allowed the 4^th-fewest tight end points per game, and although they did let the one quality tight end they’ve faced post a solid week (5 receptions, 67 yards by Mark Andrews last week), Freiermuth isn’t in that ‘quality tight end’ category yet.

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): Tremble looked to be in line for a spike in opportunities with Dan Arnold shipped off to Jacksonville, but he was on the field significantly less than Ian Thomas and was targeted just once. He isn’t roster-able outside of deeper dynasty leagues right now.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 5: vs. GB): Joe Mixon seems unlikely to suit up this week coming off an ankle injury suffered against the Jaguars. Keep an eye on the injury report here, but Mixon isn’t practicing as of Thursday. If Mixon sits, I’d expect Samaje Perine and Evans to split the backfield work, with Perine taking the early downs and Evans handling most of the passing down opportunities. Green Bay is a 3-point road favorite in this game, so the Bengals may be playing from behind. Green Bay is tied for the 11^th-most RB receptions allowed per game, and they’re one of just 4 teams that have allowed multiple RB receiving TDs so far. Evans has sneaky upside in deep PPR leagues and limited slate DFS tournaments. He’s got a price tag of just $200 in DraftKings showdown tournaments.

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 5: @LV): With the news that Bears’ running back David Montgomery will be sidelined for 4-5 weeks, Herbert becomes an interesting stash for deeper leagues. Damien Williams likely steps into the lead back role, but Williams also handled 14 touches in the first two weeks as the primary backup to Montgomery. A similar workload for Herbert seems likely. He isn’t much of a receiver out of the backfield, catching just 34 passes across 46 college games, so his work is likely going to come on the early downs. He’s a better pickup in non-PPR formats. I wouldn’t start him this week, but I’d monitor how much work he sees behind Williams.

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 5: vs. Atl. (London)): Moore has been cleared to return to action after suffering a concussion in week 3, and he gets a tasty matchup in his return. The Falcons are allowing the 7^th-most WR points per game, and rank 28^th in pass defense DVOA on the season. The Jets move their outside WRs around enough that neither Moore nor Corey Davis will be matched up exclusively with Atlanta’s top corner AJ Terrell, and that gives both an opportunity to post a strong game. Moore is certainly a risky play as the number 2 option in an offense that can be tough to trust, but he should be a WR4 with strong upside in this plus matchup, and his price tag on DraftKings is below $4,000.

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 5: vs. Ind.): I mentioned Bateman as a player you should be stashing last week, and that remains true this week. He didn’t manage to get activated for last Sunday’s contest, but he’s practicing this week and should have the green light for Monday Night Football. I wouldn’t rush to get him in lineups in season-long leagues. It may take a couple weeks for him to get acclimated to the NFL game, but he’s going to have a big role once he’s up to speed. He’ll likely have a very low price tag in showdown contests for MNF this week, and the Colts rank 26^th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 12^th-most WR points per game so far. He could be a fun roll of the dice in that format if you’re paying up for other players.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Three weeks of the NFL season are now in the books, and the fantasy landscape is starting to really take shape. It was a messy week 3 for most members of the rookie crop not named Najee Harris or Ja’Marr Chase, but that doesn’t mean we can’t learn from it. Week 3 may have been the worst week we’ve seen from a rookie QB class in all the time I’ve been writing this column. Davis Mills had the most efficient week of any of the rookie starting QBs as he completed 68% of his passes and threw a TD with no turnovers. The four 1^st-round QBs who started combined to go 77-for-140 (55% complete) for 717 yards (5.1 yards per attempt), 3 touchdowns, and 9 turnovers. They also were collectively sacked 19 times. The true standouts in futility were Justin Fields (30% complete, 9 sacks taken) and Trevor Lawrence (4 turnovers). Things should get better for those guys going forward, but there is still a learning curve ahead. Week 3 also saw poor fantasy performances from Kyle Pitts, Rondale Moore, and Trey Sermon, but Javonte Williams managed to break through and score his first TD as a pro. With all of that said, I’m not here to live in the past. I’m here to talk about what to expect in week 4.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 4…

Rookies to Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 4: @GB): Najee did something in week 3 that has been accomplished by only 1 other running back in the last 3 decades. He was targeted an astonishing NINETEEN times, hauling in 14 of them for 102 receiving yards en route to an RB5 finish for the week. Only Alvin Kamara has been targeted that many times in a game since targets have been tracked (since 1992). There were a couple factors that contributed to the huge total. Diontae Johnson, who usually vacuums up a large number of short targets, was sidelined, and JuJu Smith-Schuster left with injury during the game. They also were behind by multiple scores for most of the game and had to keep throwing. With Diontae practicing in a limited capacity Wednesday, he seems on track to play this week. That should make it tough for Harris to approach that number again, but it’s good to see how much they trust him in the passing game. Najee’s rushing efficiency still leaves something to be desired behind this offensive line, but he’s played 95% of the offensive snaps or more in each game. This week he gets to face the Packers, who rank 25^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and have allowed 6 running back receptions per game. Another top-5 finish is far from assured, but you can feel comfortable firing up Harris as an RB1 in all formats.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 4: vs. Jax.): With his two touchdown grabs last weekend, Ja’Marr Chase became the first 21-year-old rookie to ever catch for 4 touchdowns in his first 3 games (breaking Randy Moss’s previous record of 3 scores). Chase has now caught at least 1 touchdown in 15 of the last 18 games the pair has played together. His connection with Joe Burrow has clearly picked up right where it left off when they were teammates at LSU. There are some warning signs to beware of with Chase, though. The Bengals are playing at the 2^nd-slowest pace in the league in neutral game scripts (3^rd-slowest pace overall), and they’re running the ball a LOT. Cincy has gone to the air on just 34.4% of their offensive plays when they’re leading on the scoreboard. Those factors have led to the Bengals averaging just 25 pass attempts per game through the first 3 weeks. They figure to be leading a lot again Thursday as a touchdown favorite against the hapless Jaguars. Chase has shown through the first 3 weeks that he doesn’t need a ton of volume to post a big day. He’s averaging nearly 14 yards per target and a touchdown every 4 targets so far. The Jaguars, who rank 30^th in pass defense DVOA, are unlikely to be the team to curtail that efficiency from Chase. With Tee Higgins out again, even a low passing volume game from Burrow should lead to 6 or 7 targets for Ja’Marr, and that should be plenty to be in the WR2/3 range for this week in most formats.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 4: vs. KC): Smith has been largely a letdown if you’ve started him the last couple weeks, but I like this as a spot for him to get right. Through the first 3 weeks, he’s seen 22.3% of the targets and 40.6% of the intended air yards in this passing game. The Chiefs rank dead last in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 8^th-most fantasy points per game to receivers. The targets are going to continue to come DeVonta’s way, and Philly should be forced to throw plenty as a touchdown underdog. Obviously, there is risk here with Smith, but I really like him to have a big day and finish as a WR2 against Kansas City.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 4: vs. Was.): You can’t overreact to one down week for Pitts. His usage levels are still elite. He saw his highest route participation (88%) and snap rate (84%) of the season in week 3. If those things continue, the targets are going to follow. This week he faces a Washington defense that ranks 28^th in pass defense DVOA, and has allowed the 16^th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends while facing a murderer’s row of Jared Cook, Kaden Smith, Kyle Rudolph, and Dawson Knox in the first 3 weeks. If those guys managed to make this look like a middling tight end defense, you shouldn’t be scared to fire up Pitts again. He has a great chance at this being a breakout game, and he could be a bargain in DFS with a price tag of just $5,000 on DraftKings.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 4: vs. Det.): Obviously if you started Fields last week, this isn’t a well you want to dip back into, but it should be a more productive week for Fields this time out if Dalton isn’t cleared to play. Bill Lazor is going to take over the play-calling duties from Matt Nagy this week. Last season, that happened 9 games into the season. In the 9 games Nagy called, the Bears averaged 19.8 points and 302 yards per game. In the 7 that Lazor called, they averaged 27.7 and 349 yards. Fields also gets to face a very bad Detroit defense that ranks 31^st in pass defense DVOA and has given up the 10^th-most QB points per game. The switch to Lazor isn’t going to fix everything that ails the Bears’ offense overnight, but it’s a step in the right direction. If you can stomach starting Justin Fields again this week after what he did last Sunday, he has a great chance at finishing as a top-15 QB against the Lions.

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.): Mitchell is still working through a shoulder injury that kept him out in week 3, and his status is still up in the air for this one. If he’s able to play, the matchup is a juicy one. The 49ers face a Seahawks defense that has been struggling at all levels. Seattle has allowed over 135 rushing yards, over 80 receiving yards, and a whopping 9 receptions to running backs per game. They’ve allowed nearly 4 more points per game to the position than the team allowing the 2^nd-most RB points (Miami). To be fair to the Seahawks, Derrick Henry did a big chunk of the damage that’s been done against them, but they’ve struggled to slow down Nyheim Hines and Alexander Mattison as well. We know the 49ers want to run the ball. If Mitchell starts, don’t look for him to hit those stats the Seahawks are allowing on his own, but he’s got obvious top-15 upside in a great matchup.

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 4: @Dal.): Hubbard has been THE guy to target on the waiver wire this week after Christian McCaffrey suffered a hamstring strain that will likely keep him out for a couple games. There’s a chance Chuba shares this backfield with Royce Freeman, but if his usage after McCaffrey went out last week is any indication, Chuba is the player you want here. Hubbard played 73% of the offensive snaps after CMC got hurt and ran a route on 72% of the teams dropbacks. The Cowboys’ run defense has been better this season, ranking 12^th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 7^th-fewest RB points per game, but this is an offense that funnels targets to the running back position. We saw it last season when Mike Davis stepped into a 70-target season in place of McCaffrey last year, and Chuba’s 5 targets in week 3 are evidence that will continue now. If Chuba gets 5+ targets again this week, that receiving production should insulate him against a lackluster rushing output. He should be a high-end RB3 with RB2 upside in Dallas.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 4: vs. Bal.): Javonte found the end zone for the first time in his young career last weekend, but also lost his first fumble. We saw some flashes of his talent, but ultimately until he pulls away from Melvin Gordon, you’ll have to look for favorable matchups to fire him up rather than plugging him in every week. This week isn’t a great one to fire him up. The Ravens have been somewhat vulnerable to running backs, allowing the 7^th-most RB points per game, but a big chunk of that production has been due to rushing touchdowns, which can be a little fluky, and receiving output. Baltimore has given up 5 rushing scores, with 4 of them coming from 2 yards out or closer. The Broncos may not get any chances in that close. Baltimore has also given up 7 receptions and 65 receiving yards per game to opposing backs. Javonte and Gordon have combined for fewer than 5 targets per game so far. The Ravens rank 10^th in run defense DVOA on the year, so it won’t be so easy for Javonte to produce if he doesn’t find the end zone or catch a handful of passes. I’d view him as more of a dicey flex this week.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 4: vs. Ind.): I warned last week that Waddle was getting shorter targets from Jacoby Brissett, and that it would likely take a lot of them for him to post a solid week 3 performance against the Raiders. He got a lot of them. It took 13 targets for Waddle to finish as the PPR WR19 with a 12-58-0 line. In the two games where it has been mostly Brissett at QB, Waddle has averaged fewer than 3 air yards per target. It’s a great sign that he’s been so heavily targeted by Brissett, and that could continue in week 4, but it’s a similar outlook for the rookie. He’s going to need significant volume to return value unless he manages to find the end zone. The Colts have struggled to defense WRs, allowing the 5^th-most points per game to the position, and slot corner Kenny Moore has just a coverage grade of just 42.5 from PFF so far after being one of the better slot corners in the league a year ago. Waddle has WR3 upside in PPR formats this week.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 4: @Cin.): Lawrence has shown some good through the first 3 weeks of the season, and a lot of bad. The top pick in the 2021 NFL Draft has turned the ball over 9 times in the first 3 games and has only managed to offset those mistakes with positive production once. After finishing as the QB12 in week 1, he’s been outside the top-25 in each of the last two weeks. This week he gets to face a Cincinnati defense that is allowing the 10^th-fewest QB points per game and ranks 8^th in pass defense DVOA. It’s a good sign that he’s been using his legs more in recent weeks, but this isn’t a spot to roll him out unless you’re desperate in a 2-QB league. The Bengals’ defense is a good week 4 streaming option.

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 4: vs. Ten.): On paper, it looks like Wilson gets a softer matchup than he’s faced the last two weeks, but those ‘on paper’ numbers can be deceiving. The Titans have allowed the 12^th-most QB points per game and rank 22^nd in pass defense DVOA, but they were shredded by two of the game’s best quarterbacks in the first two weeks (Kyler Murray & Russell Wilson). They were much better defensively in week 3 as they held Carson Wentz to fewer than 8 fantasy points. I’ve painstakingly documented the Jets’ inability to protect Wilson in the pocket in past Rookie Reports, and Tennessee has the 3^rd-highest pressure rate in the league. Taking heat from the defense is going to be a way of life for Wilson at least until Mekhi Becton returns. Wilson is also likely to be missing #2 receiver Elijah Moore this week. He should be at least a little better than he was the past two weeks, but Wilson isn’t a good option even in two QB leagues right now.

QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 4: @Buf.): Mills held up pretty well against a tough Panthers’ defense on Thursday night, throwing for 168 yards and a touchdown without turning the ball over, but he faces just as stiff a test this week against Buffalo. The Bills have allowed the 5^th-fewest QB points per game and rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA through 3 weeks. It feels sort of unfair to have a rookie make his first two starts against the defenses that rank 1^st (Carolina) and 2^nd (Buffalo) in pass defense DVOA, but Mills will have to make do. Mills’ performance last week landed him a QB27 finish, and you’d be hard-pressed to expect much more from him this week. He shouldn’t be near your lineups.

QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.): It’s the same story again with Lance this week. If he isn’t starting, the best you could hope for is a couple red zone scores in a game playing in a sub package. He’s got a zero-point floor and a 12-point ceiling unless he’s thrust into more action than we’ve seen. That’s not enough to sniff the QB2 range, even against a shreddable defense like Seattle’s.

RB Larry Rountree, LAC (Wk. 4: vs. LV): Through the first 3 weeks Rountree is averaging about 14 snaps and 5 touches per game, and the Raiders rank 9^th in run defense DVOA so far. There’s no reason to consider the rookie in any upcoming weeks unless his role grows, or something happens to Austin Ekeler.

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 4: @Min.): I mentioned Felton last week as a guy to monitor in case he managed to steal some slot work from Rashard Higgins with Jarvis Landry out. I just wanted to update that and let you know that he didn’t. Felton played just 11 snaps to 40 for Higgins. He did out-target Higgins 3 to 2, but those targets turned into just 2 catches and 13 yards. There isn’t enough of a role for Felton to be worth rostering right now.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 4: vs. Jax.): Evans is slowly getting more involved in the Bengals’ offense in passing situations spelling Joe Mixon, but this is a low-volume offense right now. Evans played just 5 snaps in week 3, but that was good enough for an 11% snap share, and with 2 catches for 26 yards he managed to outscore some committee backs who are rostered in most 12-team leagues (Devin Singletary, Ty Johnson, Latavius Murray, Damien Harris, Ty’Son Williams). Evans should remain on the wire for now, but his usage warrants continued monitoring.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 4: vs. TB): Stevenson has been a healthy scratch in each of the last two games after losing a fumble in week 1, and although you’d have to expect him to suit up this week with James White sidelined for the year, I still wouldn’t expect a big role. Damien Harris will still be the lead rushing back, and it will likely be Brandon Bolden or JJ Taylor picking up the slack that White left behind. Rhamondre might need an injury to Harris to see a real spike in value. Even if he were to get some carries this week, Tampa has allowed the 7^th-fewest running back rushing yards and 9^th-fewest running back fantasy points thus far. It would be tough sledding to produce against this vaunted front.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 4: @LAR): Moore demonstrated last week just how volatile he is for fantasy given his current usage. He’s playing as the Arizona WR4, and that means there will be some floor weeks. Week 3 was one of them. DeAndre Hopkins was battling a rib injury and worked mostly as a decoy, but the Cardinals used more Maxx Williams instead of letting the Hopkins injury open more playing time for Rondale. This week’s matchup is an interesting one. The Rams have one of the best cover corners in the NFL in Jalen Ramsey but have deployed him in the slot 55% of the time despite the Bucs being the only team they’ve faced with a formidable slot receiver. If that trend continues, look for Nuk Hopkins to be heavily targeted in this one, and Rondale to be competing with AJ Green and Christian Kirk for any leftover targets. Hopkins has just a 17% target share so far, but I expect this to be the week where that number goes back up. I’d be hesitant to start Moore as anything more than a boom-or-bust WR4.

WR Terrace Marshall, CAR (Wk. 4: @Dal.): With Christian McCaffrey sidelined this week, there may be a little more passing volume that usually goes to CMC that could be re-distributed to the WRs, but if Marshall doesn’t start to see some targets further downfield, it’s hard to see him being very useful in your fantasy lineup. Marshall has an aDOT of just 6 yards and is playing fewer snaps and running fewer routes than teammate Robby Anderson despite being targeted more often. I’d expect the target pendulum to swing back toward Robby some weeks, and it’ll be hard to rely on Marshall as more than a WR4 option in deeper leagues.

WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 4: @Atl.): Brown has been a big disappointment so far this season, posting negative scrimmage yards in two of Washington’s first 3 games. He was targeted just twice last week in a game where Washington threw only 24 times despite losing by more than 20 points. This team does not want to let Taylor Heinicke throw the ball unless they must, and he hasn’t been willing to push the ball downfield where Dyami thrives. Heinicke averages just 7.3 intended air yards per attempt. I would’ve had a little bit of hope for Dyami this week if it looked like AJ Terrell was going to be out again, but he’s practicing in full as of Wednesday (though still in the concussion protocol). The two starting corners with him out (TJ Green and Fabian Moreau) have each allowed a passer rating above 130 on throws into the coverage, and the Falcons have allowed 10 completions of 20+ yards in the first 3 weeks. If Terrell is back, that’s who Brown should square off with most often, and Terrell has allowed just 3.3 yards per target and a 43.8 passer rating into his coverage. I’d have some interest in Dyami as a cheap dart throw in DFS tournaments if Terrell doesn’t clear the protocol, but otherwise this is a player I’d be avoiding this week.

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 4: @NO): Toney may see a spike in opportunity this week with both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton appearing to be on the wrong side of questionable, but it’s a trap. He was on the field for 66% of the offensive snaps in week 3, and managed just 3 targets, 2 catches, and 16 yards. He is the only WR or TE in the league with a negative average target depth so far this season. Those aren’t the kind of targets that are going to return fantasy value even if he sees a few extra this week. The Saints rank 6^th in pass defense DVOA and slot corner Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is allowing just 5 yards per target on throws into his coverage.

WR Dee Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 4: @SF): Eskridge is likely to get cleared from the concussion protocol and return this week, but there really aren’t any formats where you can feel comfortable firing him up in fantasy. He ran behind Freddy Swain on the depth chart in week 1, and the Seahawks’ top WRs should be able to have their way against a depleted 49ers secondary that likely will be without Josh Norman this week. If you’re playing the showdown slate for this game, Eskridge does have some appeal with just a $200 price tag on DraftKings. The team did make an effort to get the ball in his hands in week 1, he’s got the wheels to be a home run threat, and Gerald Everett may miss this game and open up some opportunity for the other ancillary players in the offense. The 49ers rank a middling 16^th in pass defense DVOA, but have been losing DBs each week to injury.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 4: @Chi.): St. Brown was already seeing very limited production in the first two weeks while he was playing about 60% of the snaps. That snap share dropped to just over 40% in week 3, and his production dropped to 1 catch for 2 yards on 1 target. He has a chance to see a handful of targets when the Lions play from behind, but he isn’t going to be as involved in closer games, and the Lions are just a 3-point underdog this week on the road in Chicago. Kalif Raymond and Quintez Cephus both appear to be ahead of him in the WR pecking order.

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 4: vs. Ten.): In case you weren’t aware of it, Moore suffered a concussion against the Broncos last weekend and looks likely to miss this game. There is a chance that he has some sneaky upside if he’s able to get cleared. The Titans allow the 3^rd-most WR points per game so far and Moore was targeted 6 times in the first 3 quarters last week before getting hurt. With that said, this Jets’ passing game isn’t one I want to put any faith in when it comes to fantasy outside of maybe Corey Davis.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 4: @GB): Freiermuth made good on my claim that he had sneaky upside last week by turning 5 targets into 3 catches for 22 yards and a touchdown, good for a TE12 finish. The downside is that he played his lowest snap share of the season, and it looks like target hog Diontae Johnson has a good chance of returning to the lineup this week. Green Bay looks like a soft matchup for tight ends, allowing the 3^rd-most TE points per game so far, but they’ve already faced two of the game’s bests at the position in TJ Hockenson and George Kittle. They did also allow 2 scores to Juwan Johnson in the opener, so there is hope for Freiermuth, but I wouldn’t bank on a repeat performance if Diontae returns and the rookie continues to play behind Eric Ebron this week. Diontae and Najee Harris will see most of the shorter targets that could go Freiermuth’s way.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 4: vs. TB): The Saints made Jones look bad last week, but he can’t dwell on that performance with Tom Brady and the Bucs coming to town on Sunday night. The Bucs are favored by 6.5 points in this one, and they’ve got one of the stoutest defensive fronts in the NFL. I don’t expect Damien Harris to have much success on the ground, and that means Jones may have to throw a bit more than usual. The Bucs have already allowed 300+ passing yards and multiple scores in each of their first 3 games this season. I don’t think Jones is going to throw for 300, but I like his chances of padding his stats in garbage time and posting his best fantasy game of the season. He has some sneaky upside for 2-QB formats this week.

RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.): If Elijah Mitchell ends up being active for this week, disregard Sermon being listed here and feel free to ignore him this week. If Mitchell is out, however, don’t let last week’s usage and performance scare you off Sermon. Yes, it’s true that Sermon was out-snapped and out-produced by fullback Kyle Juszczyk on Sunday night. It’s also true that Juszczyk was healthy throughout the week of practice while the gameplan was installed for the week, and Sermon was in the concussion protocol. I’d expect Sermon to be much more involved in this game than he was last week if Mitchell can’t go. You can see what kind of matchup this is in the bit I wrote about Mitchell above. If the starting role is Sermon’s, he has RB2 upside for the week.  

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 4: vs. KC): As we saw last week, Gainwell is going to have a role in the Eagles’ hurry-up offense, which we will likely see more of in the 2^nd half this week. The Chiefs are more than a touchdown favorite but have struggled across the board defensively in the first 3 weeks. They’ve allowed the 3^rd-most RB points per game so far and rank dead last in run defense DVOA. I think Miles Sanders has a great chance at a strong game as well, but Gainwell has some upside in deep leagues in this matchup.

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 4: vs. Ten.): The best way the Jets are going to be able to keep pressure off Zach Wilson in this game is going to be to run the ball effectively. Carter handled 75% of the Jets’ running back rush attempts last week, and I’d look for them to make more of an effort to establish the run this week against a defense that ranks 29^th in run defense DVOA thus far. Carter also has receiving skills that should pad his numbers a bit, but he has a shot at posting a top-30 week if the Jets can keep from being blown out early.

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 4: @Den.): Bateman was activated off injured reserve this week, but he doesn’t get a soft landing in his debut. If Bateman manages to suit up this weekend, he’ll face off with a Denver defense that ranks 5^th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 10^th-fewest WR points per game. I mention him as a player to stash this week if he hasn’t already been snatched up by someone else in your league. The Ravens have been throwing the ball at a higher rate than they have in the last couple seasons, and that could continue thanks to their makeshift backfield. Marquise Brown has been getting open effectively this year, but a few bad drops last week nearly cost the team the game. There is an opening for Bateman to work his way into the WR1 role in this offense before the season’s end. You can’t start him this week but make room for Bateman on your bench if he’s available.

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 4: @Dal.): The Panthers traded away Dan Arnold this week, opening the door for Tremble to take on a more significant role in the offense. Ian Thomas has been the Panther TE that’s been on the field the most, but it’s Arnold who has seen two-thirds of the team TE targets come his way. That’s amounted to just 10 targets in 3 games, but Tremble should step into that role and have some TD dart throw appeal in DFS tournaments. He’s worth a stash in deeper TE-premium formats.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.