Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 4’s rookie headlines were dominated by the quarterbacks. Mac Jones played a hyper-efficient game and was a missed field goal away from stunning Tom Brady and the Bucs at Foxboro on Sunday night. Trey Lance relieved an injured Jimmy Garoppolo at halftime and posted over 20 fantasy points in a comeback attempt against Seattle. Trevor Lawrence nearly notched his first career win on Thursday (and then his head coach made headlines that overshadowed that performance), and Zach Wilson and Justin Fields did notch their first career victories on Sunday. Fields was much improved from his first start with Bill Lazor calling the plays, and Wilson played arguably his best game to-date. Fields has earned the starting job moving forward in Chicago.
It was a ho-hum week at the other positions. DeVonta Smith posted over 120 receiving yards in Big D while Kenneth Gainwell found the end zone for the second time this season. Ja’Marr Chase and Najee Harris each posted useful performances as well. Kadarius Toney made a big splash with two starters sidelined for Big Blue, and Trey Sermon topped 80 rushing yards for the 49ers. We’ll touch on all of these players and more as we take a look at what to expect from the rookie crop in week 5.
A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 5…
Rookies to Start:
RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): Keep a close eye on the injury reports for Christian McCaffrey leading up the Panthers’ game Sunday. McCaffrey could be a true game-time decision, and if he plays you should disregard this entirely and keep him benched, but Hubbard is in line for a strong game if CMC’s hamstring injury keeps him sidelined another week. If you only look at the final numbers from last week, you may be concerned that Chuba was on the field for less than half of the offensive snaps. Don’t be. He was the clear lead back for the first 3 quarters and only gave way to Rodney Smith when they fell behind by 3 scores. He still finished the game with 15 touches and was heavily involved in the offense. The Panthers are a 3.5-point favorite this week and are unlikely to find themselves in a similar deep hole. The Eagles are a giving defense to running backs, allowing the 6th-most points per game to the position and ranking 28th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. If Hubbard is the lead guy again this week, he has legit top-12 upside.
RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Den.): I list Najee as a guy to start this week mostly because he’s still going to handle pretty much all of the Steelers’ backfield work. That gives him a weekly floor that’s nearly impossible to sit, but this is not going to be a ceiling week for the rookie. He should probably be left off DFS lineups as the 9th-highest priced RB on DraftKings. The Broncos have been fortunate to not face many good running backs so far, and to catch Saquon Barkley as he was being eased back into the lineup in week 1, but they still rank 9th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the fewest RB points per game in the league. Najee’s production is usually buoyed by receiving work, but no back has topped 3 receptions against the Broncos in the first 4 weeks. Harris is more of a volume based RB2 play this week.
WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 5: vs. GB): Ja’Marr Chase gets the good fortune of facing the Green Bay Packers the week after Jaire Alexander went down with injury. Alexander’s injury will put a strain on the entire Green Bay secondary, and the Pack were already ranked just 20th in pass defense DVOA with Alexander healthy. Tee Higgins may return this week, but Chase has reached double-digit fantasy points in every game so far, and Cincy will have to throw to keep pace with a Green Bay offense that’s averaging over 30 points scored per game in their last 3. Chase is a top-end WR3 this week with the upside for more.
TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 5: vs. NYJ (London)): Look, if you drafted Pitts in redraft leagues, I know you aren’t happy with the production so far, but you kind of have to ride it out for now. In shallower leagues, I wouldn’t have faulted people for toying with the idea of sitting him this week, but the news that Calvin Ridley won’t make the trip to London means you can’t do that. Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson are the two best weapons the Falcons have for that game, and both will have to be heavily involved if the Falcons want to compete. The Jets aren’t an easy matchup on paper. They’ve allowed the 8th-fewest TE points per game and rank a middling 19th in pass defense DVOA, but Pitts is running a route on 80% of the team’s dropbacks and averaging 6.5 targets per game. Don’t be shocked if this game isn’t a coming-out party for the rookie, but he should be a safe bet for 7+ targets. He’s a top-10 option at the position this week.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 5: vs. Atl. (London)): Just about everything that could’ve gone wrong for Wilson to start the season did go wrong. He lost his best offensive lineman to injury in week 1 and spent his first 3 games facing a gauntlet of defenses that all currently rank in the top-7 in pass defense DVOA, but he got a reprieve in week 4 against a bad Titans’ secondary, and he made the most of it. Wilson threw for nearly 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns on the way to his first career victory, and he gets an even more favorable matchup in week 5 against the Falcons in London. Atlanta has pressured the QB at the 3rd-lowest rate in the league, allowed the highest opposing passer rating, and the 3rd-most QB points per game. This is a golden opportunity for Wilson to string together back-to-back good games. There’s no reason he can’t match what he did last week, or possibly even exceed it, and I like his chances to finish as a top-15 QB for the week.
QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 5: vs. Ten.): Lawrence played his best game of the season last week, even if his fantasy totals fell a few points short of what he did in week 1. He finally played a turnover-free game and had the Jaguars on the cusp of winning a game. This week he gets to face off with a Tennessee defense that just allowed Zach Wilson to log his best game of the season. Lawrence has an opportunity to push his way into high QB2 territory if the rushing output we’ve seen from the last couple weeks continues. He’s rushed for over 20 yards in each of the last 3 games. The Titans have allowed 3 of the 4 QB’s they’ve faced to put up more than 18 fantasy points, and I like Trevor’s chances to make it 4 of 5.
QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 5: @Ari.): It wasn’t always pretty, but Trey Lance’s first extended action of the season showed why he can be an exciting fantasy QB. Lance entered the game at halftime and managed to put up more than 20 fantasy points in just 2 quarters of action. Yes, he did this against a bad Seahawks’ defense that aided his effort by allowing a long, busted coverage TD, but it was still a promising performance for the rookie. It’s still up in the air whether he will start in week 5, but if he does, he should be treated as a mid-level QB2 even in a tougher matchup. The Cardinals have allowed the 9th-fewest QB points per game and rank 3rd in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve yet to face a dynamic runner like Lance. The defensive personnel is a little different this year, but the Cardinals allowed more QB rushing yards than any other team in the league a year ago (they’ve allowed the 7th-most so far this year). Keep a close watch on the injury report throughout the week with Jimmy G, but don’t let the matchup scare you off starting Lance in 2-QB formats if he does get the nod.
RBs Trey Sermon & Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 5: @Ari.): I’m going to be really honest with you…I don’t have a good read on which 49ers’ back will lead the way this week if both are healthy. At this point, we still don’t know if Elijah Mitchell is going to get cleared to play. It makes things much easier if he isn’t. Sermon would be a strong RB3/Flex option in a matchup with a middling run defense in that case. The Cardinals rank 16th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 11th-most RB rushing yards per game. The threat of Lance running the ball could open up even more running lanes for the backs this week. A popular refrain I’ve heard from the fantasy community this week is that the 49ers don’t trust Sermon to play on passing downs, opting to use Kyle Juszczyk instead. I don’t really see that as a problem for Sermon since he isn’t a back that’s going to catch many passes anyway. The same thing applies to Mitchell. Sermon ran for 89 yards on 19 carries against the Seahawks last week and could see similar volume this week if Mitchell is out. If Mitchell is going to play, you’re going to have to pay close attention to the beat writers to get a true sense of which back is going to be the guy. If there is a clear-cut lead guy, he’s going to be an RB3 option in non-PPR formats. If it isn’t clear, both become much more volatile plays. We know the 49ers are going to run the ball. We just need to know which back they’re going to do that with.
RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 5: @Pit.): Williams saw more snaps than Melvin Gordon for the first time all year in week 4 and logged his lowest touch total of the season in the process. The Broncos were playing from behind for the first time all year, and that limited the RB opportunities to go around. Both Williams and Gordon were efficient with their carries (over 6 ypc each), but they just didn’t get enough of them. The Steelers’ run defense looks tough on paper. They’ve allowed the 5th-fewest RB points per game and rank 7th in run defense DVOA, but they’ve also allowed 3 different backs to average 5 or more yards per carry on 10+ carries in the first 4 weeks. They can be run on. I expect Javonte to get back above 10 carries this week, but the big question for the rookie is will his receiving usage continue? He’s pulled in 3 receptions in each of the last two weeks. If he manages to do that again this week, I like his chances to finish as a solid RB3, even in the 50/50 split with Melvin.
RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 5: vs. Atl. (London)): A matchup with the Falcons has a chance to be the ship that lifts all sails for the Jets’ offense, but I’d view Carter as more of a borderline option this week in deeper leagues. Atlanta is worse at defending the pass than the run, and he’ll still be splitting the backfield work with Ty Johnson. The Falcons have allowed the 11th-most RB points per game, but Carter’s typical dozen or so touches make him more of an RB4 in this one.
WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 5: @TB): Things were looking up for Waddle in week 3 as he was targeted 13 times, but he came crashing back to earth last Sunday with just 4 targets in a loss to the Colts. The ingredients are in place for a bounce-back this week. Will Fuller is back on the shelf (on IR with a broken finger), and the Dolphins face a matchup where the run game isn’t likely to be successful against a stout Tampa Bay front. Short passes to Waddle should be part of the gameplan to offset their inability to run the ball. Waddle, DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki have been the top weapons in a limited target tree for Jacoby Brissett, and I’d expect Waddle to see the most opportunities of that trio in this matchup. Tampa Bay has allowed the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, and Miami should be throwing a lot as a 10-point underdog. Waddle is a solid WR3/Flex option in PPR leagues and could be a bargain in DraftKings lineups with a $4,800 price tag.
WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 5: @Dal.): With starters Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton sidelined, Toney ran as the clear WR2 in this offense last weekend, and he made the most of his opportunity, hauling in 6 catches for 78 yards on 9 targets, and flashing his impressive run-after-catch skills. Both Slayton and Shepard are likely to be out again this week, so Toney should be in a similar role this Sunday. He’ll spend most of his time in the slot when the Giants go 3-wide, and he’ll mostly avoid Cowboys’ top corner Trevon Diggs, who has been a menace to QBs and receivers alike through the first four weeks. Jason Garrett hasn’t done a good job of getting Toney involved when everyone else is healthy, but he’s got no choice with others out. Kadarius should have a great chance to top 60 yards again in a matchup where the Giants will need to score to keep pace.
WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 5: @Car.): Smith got back on track last weekend, posting his first career 100-yard game, but I think it’s likely he takes a step backward this week. This figures to be a game where the Eagles won’t have to be quite so pass-happy, and the Panthers have allowed the 5th-fewest WR points per game and rank 5th in pass defense DVOA. You would think that their aggressive defensive style would allow some opportunities to beat the blitz with a big play, but just 6 teams have allowed fewer completions of 20+ yards than the Panthers. Smith is still going to see enough volume to be considered as a WR3/4 option, but I don’t expect him to be as efficient with that volume this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 5: @LV): Fields had a much better outing in his 2nd turn as a starter than he did in his first, but his fantasy performance was lacking a bit as it was the running backs who put the ball in the end zone. Fields finished with fewer than 9 fantasy points despite a promising overall day. He was still named the full-time starter for the Bears going forward. This week he battles a Raiders’ defense that appears to be improved from last season. Casey Heyward has been a huge upgrade as their CB1, and Justin Herbert is the only QB who has tallied more than 1 TD in a game against them. Fields may be asked to throw a little more this week with David Montgomery sidelined, but I wouldn’t count on a big fantasy day. The Bears have been hesitant to unleash his running ability in his first couple starts, and until we see him use his legs it’s hard to count on those rushing bonus points. I think Fields will post his best fantasy game of the season this week…but it still isn’t enough to get him into realistic consideration for a QB2 spot for most teams.
QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 5: @Hou.): Jones is coming off arguably the most effective performance of his young career last week against the Bucs…and he finished the week as the QB20. His style of play and the Patriots’ game plans just do not lend themselves to big fantasy days. Fewer than 30% of his completions on the year have gone for more than 10 yards, and he ranks 26th in yards per attempt and 30th in yards per completion among 31 qualified starters. The Texans look like a cake matchup on paper, but this is a matchup that calls for a heavy dose of Damien Harris and the run game. The Texans rank 8th in pass defense DVOA, and 31st in run defense DVOA. Houston has allowed the 6th-most QB points per game so far, but a lot of those points came from Trevor Lawrence in garbage time, Sam Darnold rushing for 2 scores, and a top-4 QB in Josh Allen picking them apart last weekend. I wouldn’t count on Jones matching any of those performances. He should be treated as a low-upside, low-end QB2 this weekend.
QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 5: vs. NE): Mills ran into a buzzsaw in Buffalo last weekend, finishing with 4 interceptions and fewer than 100 yards against the Bills, and I’m not sure things get much easier for him this week. The Texans may get Danny Amendola back for this one, but he won’t provide enough of a boost against a New England defense that has allowed the 4th-fewest QB points per game. Tua Tagovailoa finished as the QB22 when he faced the Patriots in week 1. That’s the highest fantasy finish any QB has posted against them. I wouldn’t want to roll out Mills even as a desperation QB2 this week.
RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 5: @Car.): Gainwell has spent the first month of the season being a thorn in the side of fantasy managers who drafted Miles Sanders. He’s vulture 2 red zone touchdowns and handled the valuable receiving work in the hurry-up offense late in games. I still wouldn’t start him this week. Philly should hang around a little longer in this one (just a 3.5-point underdog on the road) and the Panthers have done a great job of limiting RB production in 3 of their 4 games. The Cowboys’ RBs did get to them last week, but they did so without a single reception. Carolina is allowing just 2 running back catches per game so far, and if Gainwell isn’t seeing any volume in the receiving game, he’s unlikely to provide you much value. You’ll wind up hoping he scores a touchdown against a defense that has given up just 1 rushing score to backs on the season. Only Zeke Elliott has scored 7+ fantasy points against this defense.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 5: @Hou.): Stevenson remained inactive in week 4 despite the season-ending injury to James White the prior week. The Patriots made do with Damien Harris, Brandon Bolden and JJ Taylor on Sunday night, but a fumble by Taylor may have opened the door for Stevenson to be active again this week. This is a week where there could be significant garbage time against the Texans, but in a best-case scenario that probably means just a handful of carries for Rhamondre. The Texans rank 2nd to last in run defense DVOA, so any opportunity to run against them could be useful, but I don’t see enough work for Stevenson in this one to get him into lineups anywhere.
RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 5: @LAC): Felton has played just 20 snaps over the last 3 weeks. He’s been targeted with a pass on a ridiculously high 35% of those snaps and has a highlight-reel touchdown to boot, but until that usage comes up there aren’t any formats where Felton can be trusted.
WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 5: vs. SF): In week 4, for the second straight week, Rondale was in a route on less than 40% of the team dropbacks, had a 10% target share or lower, and finished outside the top-60 fantasy WRs. There are going to be spike weeks where he posts strong games, but they’re going to be hard to predict. The 49ers have been banged up in the secondary but have held up alright. They rank 18th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 18th-most WR points per game. I don’t see this as a week to take a shot on Moore in season-long leagues, and in DFS I prefer similarly priced options like Jaylen Waddle or Elijah Moore over Rondale this week. If Chase Edmonds is out, Moore might get a little boost in usage, so keep an eye on that situation if you’re still considering using Moore.
WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): Marshall played his highest snap share of the season last Sunday, but it was also the first time all season that the Panthers were playing from behind, and he continues to see fewer snaps and routes run than Robby Anderson. I don’t expect the Panthers to fall significantly behind again this week, so I’d expect Marshall’s snap share to fall back closer to 60%, and his opponent in the slot, Avonte Maddox, has acquitted himself quite well this season in coverage. Maddox has allowed just a 75.2 passer rating on throws into his coverage and 4.8 yards per target. I’d keep Terrace sidelined again.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 5: @Min.): St. Brown saw a spike in playing time and targets last week, finishing with a 6-70 line on 8 targets as the Lions tried to come from behind in Chicago. I wouldn’t bank on a repeat performance this week. Starting center Frank Ragnow has already been ruled out, and the Lions are also expecting to be without standout rookie Penei Sewell at tackle. Jared Goff will be under fire from a Viking defense that ranks 7th in the league in pressure rate. It’s going to be tough for the passing game to establish much of a rhythm, and I’d expect most of the receiving success to be had by the running backs and TJ Hockenson. I’d keep ARSB sidelined this week despite his strong performance against Chicago.
WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. NO): Brown suffered a knee injury last week that has kept him out of practice through Wednesday. When he’s been active, he’s totaled just 47 scrimmage yards in 4 games. You can’t play him this week whether he suits up or not.
TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Den.): Freiermuth continues to play about half of the team’s offensive snaps, but his targets have been inconsistent week-to-week. In weeks where the Steelers have their full complement of weapons available, I wouldn’t count on more than a couple targets going the rookie’s way, and you’re basically crossing your fingers that he finds the end zone. Denver has allowed the 4th-fewest tight end points per game, and although they did let the one quality tight end they’ve faced post a solid week (5 receptions, 67 yards by Mark Andrews last week), Freiermuth isn’t in that ‘quality tight end’ category yet.
TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): Tremble looked to be in line for a spike in opportunities with Dan Arnold shipped off to Jacksonville, but he was on the field significantly less than Ian Thomas and was targeted just once. He isn’t roster-able outside of deeper dynasty leagues right now.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 5: vs. GB): Joe Mixon seems unlikely to suit up this week coming off an ankle injury suffered against the Jaguars. Keep an eye on the injury report here, but Mixon isn’t practicing as of Thursday. If Mixon sits, I’d expect Samaje Perine and Evans to split the backfield work, with Perine taking the early downs and Evans handling most of the passing down opportunities. Green Bay is a 3-point road favorite in this game, so the Bengals may be playing from behind. Green Bay is tied for the 11th-most RB receptions allowed per game, and they’re one of just 4 teams that have allowed multiple RB receiving TDs so far. Evans has sneaky upside in deep PPR leagues and limited slate DFS tournaments. He’s got a price tag of just $200 in DraftKings showdown tournaments.
RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 5: @LV): With the news that Bears’ running back David Montgomery will be sidelined for 4-5 weeks, Herbert becomes an interesting stash for deeper leagues. Damien Williams likely steps into the lead back role, but Williams also handled 14 touches in the first two weeks as the primary backup to Montgomery. A similar workload for Herbert seems likely. He isn’t much of a receiver out of the backfield, catching just 34 passes across 46 college games, so his work is likely going to come on the early downs. He’s a better pickup in non-PPR formats. I wouldn’t start him this week, but I’d monitor how much work he sees behind Williams.
WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 5: vs. Atl. (London)): Moore has been cleared to return to action after suffering a concussion in week 3, and he gets a tasty matchup in his return. The Falcons are allowing the 7th-most WR points per game, and rank 28th in pass defense DVOA on the season. The Jets move their outside WRs around enough that neither Moore nor Corey Davis will be matched up exclusively with Atlanta’s top corner AJ Terrell, and that gives both an opportunity to post a strong game. Moore is certainly a risky play as the number 2 option in an offense that can be tough to trust, but he should be a WR4 with strong upside in this plus matchup, and his price tag on DraftKings is below $4,000.
WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 5: vs. Ind.): I mentioned Bateman as a player you should be stashing last week, and that remains true this week. He didn’t manage to get activated for last Sunday’s contest, but he’s practicing this week and should have the green light for Monday Night Football. I wouldn’t rush to get him in lineups in season-long leagues. It may take a couple weeks for him to get acclimated to the NFL game, but he’s going to have a big role once he’s up to speed. He’ll likely have a very low price tag in showdown contests for MNF this week, and the Colts rank 26th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 12th-most WR points per game so far. He could be a fun roll of the dice in that format if you’re paying up for other players.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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