Shawn Foss
I'm a college and professional sports nut from the Chicago area. Follow me on Twitter @Shawn_Foss
September
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s been a long, dreadful 7-month wait for NFL games that matter to return, but we’ve made it! We’re mere hours away from week 1, which means it’s time once again to set your fantasy lineups, and that means I’m back to help you figure out what to do with your rookies.
If you’re new to the Rookie Report, here’s how it works: Each week I’ll look at the upcoming matchup for all the fantasy-relevant rookies and give you my take on what to do with them for that week. I’ll give you some quick-hitting info about guys you already know you should start or sit, and I’ll dig a little deeper on the borderline rookies to give you some info to help you make that decision for the week. I’ll also include some deep league sleepers, stashes for the future, and cheap DFS plays that I like among rookies for those of you who are in deeper leagues or like to play DFS.
This year’s rookie class is an interesting one. There was only 1 QB taken before round 3 of the NFL draft and zero rookie QBs slated to start in week 1, but there were an absurd 13 wide receivers taken in the first two rounds and a number of other intriguing guys drafted in rounds 3 & 4. I have a feeling a lot of this year’s Rookie Report will be devoted to the wide receiver class.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 1…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
NONE – There are no rookies that should be an auto-start in week 1 for your lineups. The 2 guys who should be the safest based on draft capital and expected role are Drake London and Breece Hall. Both face tough week 1 matchups and have question marks that make them less than a sure thing for the openers.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 1: vs. Ind.): Pierce has been one of the most polarizing players this preseason after winning the Texans’ RB1 job out of camp as a 4th-round draft pick. The debate has been about whether he’s actually a good starting RB, or if he was just the best of a lackluster group of options in Houston. Regardless of the answer to that question, we know he’s going to get rushing volume. The Texans changed coaches this offseason, but they’re likely to remain conservative as an offense. Houston passed the ball at just the 19th highest rate last year despite finishing 4-13 and constantly playing from behind. That means they’re willing to run when they probably shouldn’t. I don’t expect Pierce to stay in the game on passing downs. That job should fall to Rex Burkhead, but that doesn’t mean Pierce can’t pull in a few receptions to go along with probably 15+ carries in week 1. The Colts’ run defense was stingy in 2021, ranking 3rd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA, but the switch from DC Matt Eberflus to Gus Bradley could mean some regression is coming. Bradley runs a base cover-3 defense and doesn’t do a ton of blitzing. In fact, according to Pro Football Reference Bradley’s defenses have blitzed at the lowest rate in the NFL in each of the last 3 years (and 3rd-lowest rate in 2018). It’s caused his defenses to traditionally be pretty good against the pass, but bad against the run. Bradley’s defenses have ranked in the bottom half of the league in rushing yards allowed and rushing TDs allowed in each of the last 3 seasons, and his Raiders’ defense last year allowed the 4th-most running back points per game. If you’re considering Pierce for a start in week 1, I’d feel good about slotting him in the lineup.
WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 1: @Atl.): Olave enters week 1 looking like a clear starter for the Saints opposite Michael Thomas with Jarvis Landry in the slot. Thomas has been battling a hamstring injury, and while he looks likely to play it’s easy to wonder if it hampers his performance in the opener. The Falcons allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points in the league last year to wide receivers lined up on the perimeter, per Sports Info Solutions (SIS). They did add Casey Heyward Jr. at corner to help shore up that issue, but I still like Olave to get loose for a handful of catches in a strong debut performance. Part of the problem for the Falcons is that they generated QB pressure at the lowest rate in the league last year, and they did little to address the issue in the offseason. You can’t ask your corners to cover forever. Something in the range of 5-75 with a possible TD would be a nice finish for Olave in the opener.
WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 1: vs. NYG): Depending on who you ask, Burks’ training camp and preseason ranged anywhere from okay to pretty bad, to a complete dumpster fire. It started with reports that his conditioning was an issue early in camp. Then came the preseason games where Burks played into the 4th quarter in each of the first two contests and didn’t produce much with his opportunities. It became clear that he wasn’t working with the starters yet, which is unexpected for a guy who was drafted in the top 20 picks by a team that just traded away their WR1. At the end of the day, I bought into the camp reports a bit and was expecting a slow start to the season for Burks. Then I saw his week 1 matchup. The Giants are shaky at corner after releasing James Bradberry as a cap casualty in the offseason, and new DC Wink Martindale loves to play aggressive defense with a lot of blitzing and asking his CBs to play man coverage. I expect the Titans to combat this by trying to get the ball into the hands of their playmakers in space quickly, and they don’t have a more dynamic playmaker than Burks. Much like Derrick Henry (although not to the same degree), Burks is a player you don’t want to tackle when he’s running full speed in the open field. I like his chances of breaking a big play or two against this vulnerable defense. Burks is listed as the team’s WR2 on their first depth chart released for the regular season.
WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 1: @Cin.): Pickens will be a starter in 3-wide sets for the Steelers in week 1, and with Diontae Johnson battling a shoulder injury he could make a splash in his debut against the defending AFC champs. Mike Tomlin hasn’t expressed any concern about Diontae being able to play in the opener, but Johnson may be out there as more of a decoy than a featured target. Johnson should draw shadow coverage from Chidobe Awuzie, who graded as PFF’s 18th-best cover corner in 2021. Chase Claypool should draw Mike Hilton in the slot (PFF’s 5th best slot cover corner in ’21). That leaves oft picked on Eli Apple as Pickens’ week one adversary. I like George’s chances to lead the Steelers in receiving yards in week 1, and he looks like a guy who will be much more productive as a pro than he was in college. 60+ yards and a possible TD feels like a likely outcome for Pickens in the opener.
WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): Dotson won the starting WR job opposite Terry McLaurin in camp, and he gets a soft landing for his NFL debut. The Jaguars allowed the 7th-most WR points per game last season and ranked 31st in pass defense DVOA, and their best corner Shaquill Griffin is likely to follow Terry McLaurin around. That leaves youngster Tyson Campbell to match up with Dotson. With Washington likely missing starting TE Logan Thomas, Dotson should see a healthy number of targets come his way in a game where Carson Wentz should be motivated to exorcise some demons. It was his performance in an embarrassing loss in the week 18 meeting with the Jaguars that changed the trajectory of Wentz’s career. That loss was the final nail in his coffin in Indy, the second stop that he’s been booted from in as many years. This year may be his last chance to prove he can be someone’s franchise QB and putting it on the Jaguars would be a good way to start. If Wentz makes good on that, Dotson will be a primary beneficiary.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
RB Breece Hall, NYJ (Wk. 1: vs. Bal.): Hall seemed like a slam dunk to open the season as the Jets' workhorse running back when he was drafted in April, but he somehow failed to beat out Michael Carter for the starting job in training camp. It appears Hall will open the season in a committee akin to the one we saw between Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon last season in Denver. It’s not a great development if you drafted Hall to be a starting running back, especially in a week where he faces a Ravens’ defense that ranked 4th in run defense DVOA stat last season. This is the kind of matchup where I’d be calling him a floor RB2 if he were the workhorse. Instead, he’s a fringe flex play that doesn’t appear to have a ton of ceiling.
RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 1: @Dal.): White is only a borderline option in the deepest of PPR leagues. The Bucs leaned heavily on Leonard Fournette in 2021, and while they’re likely to do that again in ’22, they probably want to lighten the load at least a little after he missed crucial time down the stretch with injury last season. They used a 3rd round pick on White and he’s already worked his way up to #2 on the depth chart behind Lenny. I expect the workload split here to look something like we’ve seen with Dallas where Fournette is in the Zeke Elliott role and White is Tony Pollard. He’ll mix in for some change of pace work and some receiving opportunities, but Lenny is the workhorse. White is a great stash in case his role is bigger than expected or anything happens to Fournette, but he isn’t a great play in week 1 against a Dallas defense that allowed the 3rd-fewest RB points per game last season.
WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. vs. NO): London returns from a knee injury in time for week 1, but he’s had very limited practice time this preseason. I’d be surprised if he plays a full complement of snaps in the opener, and many of the snaps he does play should be matched up with Saints’ top corner Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore had a 76.4 PFF coverage grade and allowed fewer than 8 yards per target into his coverage in 2021. I wouldn’t count on more than 5-6 targets for the rookie in the opener, which may not get London to 50+ yards against Lattimore.
WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 1: @Hou.): Pierce draws a favorable matchup in his first time out against a Houston defense that allowed the 5th-most fantasy points last year to wide receivers lined up out wide (Parris Campbell figures to play mostly in the slot), but this shapes up as a game where the Colts will have no problem relying on Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman to do most of the heavy lifting. Pittman is the clear WR1 in this offense, and the Texans won’t have an answer for him when the Colts need to throw, and they shouldn’t need to throw a ton. Pierce could see a few targets come his way, but this should be a low passing volume week for the Colts, and the scraps that go to Pierce are unlikely to amount to a strong fantasy game.
WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 1: vs. Bal): The Jets have listed Wilson as a backup on the depth chart behind Braxton Berrios ahead of the opener, but I have a hunch Wilson will be on the field a fair amount in week 1. They didn’t draft him in the first round to not have a role, and the Jets are going to be playing from behind as a touchdown underdog at home. The Ravens are a much tougher pass defense than last year’s #30 rank in pass defense DVOA would indicate. Their secondary was decimated by injuries last year and appears back to full health to start 2022. The return of Marcus Peters and the addition of Kyle Fuller make this a defense I don’t want to use Wilson against unless I KNOW he’s playing a full complement of snaps. We don’t know that for week 1.
WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL (Wk. 1: vs. TB): Michael Gallup’s status remains in doubt for week 1, and Tampa Bay’s stout defensive front had teams throwing early and often against them last season since they couldn’t run the ball with any success. Dak Prescott attempted a whopping 58 passes against the Bucs in week 1 last year as Zeke Elliott struggled to just 33 rushing yards. There’s a pretty good possibility Dallas employs a similar strategy this time around, and that kind of passing volume makes Tolbert intriguing. The problem is that he’s failed to separate himself from guys like Noah Brown, Semi Fehoko, and KaVontae Turpin in camp. It’s likely all 4 guys play some snaps in the opener if Gallup is out, and we could even see Tony Pollard get some slot snaps as well after he did some work there in camp. The passing game will run through CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz, and the running backs in the opener, and you’re likely grasping at straws if you start any of their other receivers in week 1.
TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 1: @Ten.): For deeper TE-premium leagues, Bellinger may be on your radar for week 1 after winning the starting tight end job in New York. I’d steer clear for the opener. The Titans allowed the 6th-fewest TE points per game last season, and we all know about the likelihood of early success for rookie tight ends. You can likely find a better option for week 1.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
All of the rookie QBs: None of the rookie signal callers are slated to start in week 1, and if the draft is any indication, I’d be pessimistic about the entire class. 2022 was the 6th time since 1990 that no QB was taken in the top-15 picks of the NFL draft. The first QBs off the board in those other 5 drafts have a combined total of one top-12 fantasy season between them (by Chad Pennington). That bodes poorly for Kenny Pickett, and none of the other rookie QBs this year garnered better than a 3rd-round draft pick.
RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 1: @LAR): Cook enters week 1 in a messy 3-way committee with Devin Singletary and Zack Moss, and he faces a defense that allowed the 9th-fewest RB points per game last season and remains one of the most talented defensive units in the NFL. Cook’s likely to see a handful of touches in week 1, but he’s going to be hard to trust as anything more than an upside play in DFS contests. He costs the minimum for the full slate on DraftKings, and $2,800 for showdown contests.
RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 1: vs. Den.): Walker has been battling a hernia injury (the non-sports variety) throughout camp. It’s still up in the air whether he’ll be able to suit up in week 1, but the missed time has him comfortably behind Rashaad Penny on the depth chart to start the season. Anything beyond 6-8 touches in week one for KW3 would be a bonus.
RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 1: vs. NO): Allgeier enters the season 3rd on the Falcons RB depth chart behind Cordarrelle Patterson and Damien Williams, and the Falcons face a New Orleans defense that ranked 1st in run defense DVOA and allowed the 2nd fewest RB points per game last season. There’s no reason to fire him up in the opener.
RB Zamir White, LV (Wk. 1: @LAC): White’s role for the early part of the season Looks to be mostly as a change of pace back on early downs behind Josh Jacobs while Ameer Abdullah handles the passing down work. That’s not a very useful role for fantasy, even against a Chargers’ defense that ranked 30th in run defense DVOA a season ago.
RB Trestan Ebner, CHI (Wk. 1: vs. SF): Ebner warrants watching in week 1 as a potential waiver pick-up for PPR leagues. There’s been a lot of buzz this offseason about his ability as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, but this week is not the one to try him out in lineups. The 49ers allowed the 9th-fewest RB receiving yards per game last season and we still don’t know just how big of a role Ebner will play in this offense. Take a wait-and-see approach with him in the early weeks.
RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 1: @Ari.): Pacheco has been one of the biggest darlings of training camp. There’s been speculation that he’s going to play a meaningful role in the Chiefs offense after making the team as a 7th-round draft pick, but you’d be best off practicing patience with him for your lineups. Pacheco looks to work as the change of pace back for both early-down RB Clyde Edwards Helaire and 3rd down back Jerick McKinnon to start the season. The Cardinals should be significantly worse on defense than the unit that allowed the 7th-fewest RB points per game last year, but Pacheco’s limited role in a 3-headed backfield makes him a guy to avoid this week.
RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 1: vs. LV): Spiller seems to have gotten over a preseason ankle injury in time for week 1, but he’s fallen behind both Joshua Kelley and Sony Michel for the RB2 job and isn’t likely to have a prominent role in week 1. The Raiders aren’t a good defense – they allowed the 4th-most RB points per game last season, but Spiller won’t see enough work for that to matter.
RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk. 1: vs. Buf.): The Rams backfield rotation seems a little unsettled still, but I don’t envision a big role for Williams behind Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson to start the season. Williams’ biggest upside comes from his prowess as a receiver. He hauled in 35+ catches in each of the last two seasons at Notre Dame, but he enters an offense that doesn’t really target the backs in the passing game. The Rams have ranked dead last in the NFL in RB target share in each of the last two seasons, and although OC Kevin O’Connell departed to take the Vikings head coaching job, the Rams replaced him with Liam Coen who coached under O’Connell with the Rams in 2020. Coen spent 2021 as the Kentucky offensive coordinator, and the Wildcats’ running backs accounted for less than 10% of the team’s total receptions. Williams is a guy to monitor for later in the season, but he shouldn’t be near your week 1 lineup.
WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 1: @Car.): There’s a good chance that Bell opens the season as the Browns’ WR3, but I don’t expect there to be a lot of fantasy production to go around for the pass catchers with Jacoby Brissett under center. The Browns will likely use a lot of 2-TE and 2-RB looks and probably won’t have 3 WRs on the field as much as most teams. Bell should be rostered in deeper PPR leagues, but he’s not a good option in week 1, especially against a Carolina defense that allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points per game to opposing WRs lined up in the slot last season, per SIS.
WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 1: @Ari.): The Chiefs look likely to enter the season with JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Mecole Hardman starting in 3-WR sets. Moore even played behind Justin Watson in the Chiefs' final preseason game. The rookie is going to work himself into a bigger role at some point this season, but he shouldn’t be near your lineup for week 1.
WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 1: vs. SF): Jones makes his NFL debut against a defense that was just in the middle of the pack last year against the pass (15th in pass defense DVOA), but he joins an offense with a messy WR depth chart after Darnell Mooney. The Bears figure to be run-heavy, with the passing offense running through Mooney and TE Cole Kmet. None of the other Chicago receivers should be in your week 1 lineup. Jones looks to be the WR4 on the depth chart at this point behind Mooney, Equanimeous St. Brown, and Byron Pringle, but that could change as the season moves along. Monitor Jones from afar.
WR Kyle Phillips, TEN (Wk. 1: vs. NYG): Phillips impressed early in camp and seemed to have a real chance to enter the season as the Titans starting slot WR at one point, but with Treylon Burks putting his early camp struggles behind him Phillips seems to be playing behind Robert Woods, Burks, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine on the depth chart. Even if he had earned the WR3 role, only 9 teams spent a lower % of their plays in 11 personnel than the Titans did last year. Their offense runs through Derrick Henry, and they typically have a narrow passing target tree. Phillips doesn’t have much upside in the opener even in a good matchup with the Giants.
TE Cole Turner, WAS (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): I had some hope for Turner to make my sleeper list this week with starting tight end Logan Thomas unlikely to suit up for week 1 and backup John Bates banged up as well, but Bates was able to get in a full practice on Tuesday. He’ll likely be ready to go for the opener, relegating Turner to the bench. Turner posted 62 receptions at 10 TDs at Nevada last season, and the Jaguars ranked 31st in pass defense DVOA last season. If for some reason Bates winds up missing this game, Turner is an intriguing DFS option that costs the minimum on DraftKings.
TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 1: @Dal.): Otton had some hype early in the offseason when Gronk retired once again, but the Bucs also added Kyle Rudolph in free agency and Otton has failed to beat out Rudolph or returning backup Cam Brate. He’ll open the season as Tampa’s TE3.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 1: @Cin.): Warren’s signing as a UDFA went largely unnoticed in the spring but entering the season he’s the primary backup for Najee Harris. He isn’t a guy you should be plugging into any lineups, but he’s a great stash in deeper leagues in case anything happens to Najee. The Steelers’ backs other than Harris only handled 60 combined touches last year, but they’re likely to run more with Mitch Trubisky at QB, and Harris’ touches were close to maxed out in 2021. Pittsburgh passed at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL last season.
WRs Christian Watson & Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 1: @Min.): The Packers said goodbye to one of the best wide receivers in football in the offseason, Davante Adams, along with another regular starter in Marquez Valdes-Scantling. They added rookies Watson and Doubs in the draft to help soften the blow of those departures. Watson has been hampered by preseason injuries but should be ready to go for the opener. Meanwhile, fourth-round pick Doubs has been the star of camp. Allen Lazard is the presumptive WR1 in this offense, but he’s not practicing this week with an ankle injury and could miss Sunday’s game. I know that sets up perfectly for another patented Sammy Watkins week 1 performance, but Watson & Doubs have a chance to play meaningful roles against a Minnesota defense that allowed the most WR fantasy points per game last year. I prefer Doubs to Watson for this week, but both players have an intriguing upside for DFS contests assuming Lazard is out. Doubs costs the minimum on DraftKings. Watson is a bit pricier at $5,100.
WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 1: @Ten.): Robinson’s outlook for week 1 got a little murkier this week when Sterling Shepard announced he expects to be ready for week 1 after suffering a torn Achilles back in December. Wan’Dale looked like a lock to be the team’s starting slot WR to open the year, and I still think Shepard is going to be eased back in. Shepard was the starting slot WR in 2021, but Brian Daboll is a new head coach with a new offensive system, and Wan’Dale is the one who has been practicing with the ones throughout camp and the first regular season depth chart released by the team has him listed as a starter. Assuming Robinson starts, he faces a Titans’ defense that allowed the most fantasy points to receivers lined up in the slot in the league last year, per SIS. I think something like 5-60 is very possible in the rookie’s debut, with upside for more.
TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 1: @NYJ): Likely got lucky this preseason when fellow rookie teammate Charlie Kolar suffered a sports hernia and opened the door for Likely to step into the TE2 role behind Mark Andrews. Andrews is as cemented as the starter as can be, but the Ravens jettisoned their WR1 Marquise Brown in the offseason, leaving not much depth behind Rashod Bateman in the receiver room. James Proche, Devin Duvernay, and Tylan Wallace all failed to establish themselves as the clear third option in the passing game, and it’s possible that Likely has done enough to show he can fill that void. The Ravens are going to get Likely on the field a lot this year, and the season-opening matchup is a great one for tight ends. The Jets ranked dead last in pass defense DVOA last season and allowed the 5th-most TE points per game. Andrews will be the biggest beneficiary, but Isaiah Likely could see 5-7 targets himself in week 1 if he’s truly that third receiving option. Likely costs just $2,600 in the Draftkings showdown slate for this game.
TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 1: vs. KC): Keep an eye on Zach Ertz’s status for the week 1 matchup if you’re considering McBride for a lineup. Ertz was able to return to the practice field for the first time in a couple of weeks on Wednesday. If he’s able to play, that makes McBride a bad week one option. If Ertz sits, McBride should be in line for a decent number of targets against a Kansas City defense that allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to in-line tight ends last year. Most of McBride’s snaps at Colorado State were as an in-line tight end. He’s a phenomenal pass catcher, having logged 90 catches in 12 games last season in college. If Ertz sits, I like his chances for 5+ receptions in the opener, and he costs just $1,800 in showdown contests.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you get your season started on the right foot. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
January
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve made it to the end of another NFL season. Hopefully this season brought you fantasy success and good fortune. Hopefully my article last week helped talk some sense into you if you were considering sitting Ja’Marr Chase or Najee Harris last week, or helped you trust Amon-Ra St. Brown and Rhamondre Stevenson in the championship. In most leagues you already know whether or not you won. Most typical fantasy leagues this season were set up for a week 17 championship, and week 17 is now in the books, but not all leagues were set up that way. Some of you may be in leagues that were set up with a week 18 championship, or a two-week final that spans weeks 17 & 18. Your work isn’t done yet, and I’m here to help one more time if you have any rookies that you’re considering.
For those of you whose leagues concluded last week, you can put your feet up, kick back and relax this weekend and just watch the games for fun, or you can keep the fun rolling and dive into some DFS contests for the final week. The key for the final week is all about understanding motivation - which teams are motivated to win, and which teams are just trying to rest up for the playoffs or just get to the offseason. There will undoubtedly be unheralded players on those ‘unmotivated’ teams who see more action than we’re used to, and some of them are bound to be rookies. With that in mind, I’ll have a special section this week for rookies who could be in line for more work in week 18, and I’ll give a bit more of a DFS slant to some of the usual rookie suspects this week as well.
A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game numbers and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 18…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 18: @Bal.): The Ravens have been much better at defending the run than the pass, but that hasn’t stopped them from giving up 13+ fantasy points to a running back in each of their last 4 games, including to Najee in week 13. The Steelers will do everything in their power to try to get Ben Roethlisberger to the playoffs one more time, so we should see their normal starters for the whole game here. For Harris, that probably means close to 20 touches or more. That volume makes him an RB1 again this week. The Steelers still would need an unlikely Jacksonville upset over the Colts to have a shot at the postseason, but they’re not going to hold Najee back.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 18: @LAR): Jimmy Garoppolo’s status remains up in the air for this week, but if Lance gets the nod, he should be treated like a low-end QB1 even in a tough matchup. The Rams allow the 6th-fewest QB points per game, but Lance has averaged 55 rushing yards per game in the 3 contests where he’s seen extended playing time, and the Rams allow more QB rushing yards per game than any of the 3 teams Lance has faced. This week’s slate is already missing Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson, and a number of other QB are at risk of being pulled early either due to clinched playoff spots or if their team pulls away – Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, Carson Wentz, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Mac Jones, Tom Brady. It’s hard to argue against Lance as a top-10 QB this week given how risky some of the usual top QBs are, and how much floor his rushing provides.
QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 18: vs. Ten.): Mills was a disappointment last week, but he finished as a top-15 quarterback in each of the 4 starts prior, and this week he faces a Titans’ defense that has allowed the 13th-most QB points per game. Houston should be in a negative game script that will keep Mills throwing. Mills isn’t any more than a QB2 option this week, but a lot of QBs may not play full games in week 18, and with Mills, you know he’s likely to play the whole thing.
RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 18: @LAR): The 49ers have had the Rams’ number since Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay took over as coaches for those franchises. SF has beaten LA 6 times in 9 meetings, including the last 5 in a row. The Rams need to win this game to clinch the division title, but the 49ers need to win it to clinch a playoff spot. San Francisco is likely to be the more desperate team, and Mitchell has been a focal point of the offense whenever he’s healthy. Mitchell has handled 17+ carries 8 times this season, and he’s rushed for 90+ yards in 6 of those games, including the first meeting with these Rams. The Rams are a tough matchup, ranked 4th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, but Mitchell should see a big workload and is a safe RB2 with upside for more.
RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 18: @Buf.): Carter left quickly last week with a concussion but sounds likely to get cleared ahead of this week’s finale in Buffalo. If he plays, Carter should see a big workload in a matchup that is much more favorable than it was a couple months ago. Buffalo will be pulling out all the stops, needing a win to clinch the division title, but their run defense has crumbled in recent weeks. Buffalo allowed only 2 backs to reach 10+ fantasy points in their first 8 games of the season but have allowed 7 backs to hit that mark in their last 8, including Carter in week 10. Five of the 6 highest rushing yardage totals they’ve allowed this season also came in those 8 games. Don’t be afraid of the matchup here. Carter should be treated as an RB2 this week.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 18: @Mia.): The Patriots are favored by just 6 points this week, but it’s a game where one team is motivated to win, and the other isn’t. We’ve seen New England dismantle teams when they play with a purpose. The Patriots were on the winning side of 3 of the 7 most lopsided games in the NFL this season. The Patriots need this win to keep their hopes of a division title alive, and Damien Harris is expected to play through a hamstring injury this week. I’d expect that we see a lot of Rhamondre if the Patriots get out in front as New England lets Harris rest his hammy as much as they can. The Dolphins allow the 7th-fewest RB points per game, but they were steamrolled by D’Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard last week and have less motivation to win this week. I’d expect Stevenson to have a floor somewhere around 60 yards, but he has similar upside to last week, when he scored 22.7 fantasy points.
RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 18: @NYG): Antonio Gibson is practicing as though he’s going to return this week from a hip injury that sidelined him in week 17, but there’s little reason for Washington to push for him to return for a meaningless tilt with the Giants. I wouldn’t be surprised if Gibson winds up inactive for this one, but even if he plays, Patterson should still play quite a bit against a defense that allows the 8th-most RB points per game and ranks 29th in run defense DVOA. 12-15 touches against that defense are likely even if Gibson plays. That should put Patterson on the RB2/3 borderline, and he bumps up higher if Gibson sits.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 18: vs. GB): St. Brown has been on an absolute tear over the last 5 weeks, totaling at least 11 targets, 8 receptions and 70 yards in every single game, and finding the end zone at least once in 4 of them. I wouldn’t bet against him continuing to produce in week 18. Jared Goff will be back at QB, D’Andre Swift said he expects his own usage to be similar to last week (57% snap share, 8% target share), so he shouldn’t steal too many of Amon-Ra’s opportunities. The Packers have the number 1 seed locked up and will be resting many of their starters and the Lions can’t hurt their draft position with a win unless the Jaguars also win this week, which is HIGHLY unlikely. Detroit is going to treat this game like their Super Bowl, and that should mean a lot of ARSB again. I wouldn’t treat him as a lock to approach 20 fantasy points again, but his target volume should approach what we’ve seen from him in recent weeks. That makes him at least an upside WR3 this week.
WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 18: vs. NE): Waddle moves out of the auto-start range this week with the Dolphins having little to play for, but I still like his chances for a solid game. The Pats allow the 5th-fewest WR points per game, but they’ve struggled to contain slot receivers. New England’s slot corner Jalen Mills has allowed a 115.4 passer rating into his coverage, and the Pats allowed slot receiver stat lines of 7-73 to Braxton Berrios, 6-77-1 to Keenan Allen, 11-125-1 to Isaiah McKenzie, and 4-64-1 to Jaylen Waddle in the first meeting with Miami. Miami could get some bench guys involved if they fall way behind, but Waddle should be heavily involved until that happens.
WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 18: vs. Pit.): Bateman’s had a bit of an up-and-down rookie year, but he has shown a connection with backup QB Tyler Huntley, amassing 7 receptions in 2 of Huntley’s last 3 starts, and the Steelers are just a middling pass defense. Bateman should primarily matchup up with Cameron Sutton, who has allowed over 9 yards per target and a 114.5 passer rating into his coverage. The Ravens still have slim playoff hopes headed into this week, so they won’t hold anything back. Bateman is probably going to see the ball come his way 7+ times and has a chance to post one of his better games of the season.
TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 18: vs. NO): Pitts is battling a hamstring injury that he suffered last week and faces a New Orleans defense that allows the 8th-fewest TE points per game. He’s still a worthwhile TE play if he’s able to go. Pitts enters week 18 just 59 yards away from breaking Mike Ditka’s record for receiving yards by a rookie tight end, and the Falcons don’t have much left to play for other than breaking that record. It’s not a great matchup for Pitts, but I expect the Falcons to go out of their way to make sure he gets that record. He probably needs to finally score his second TD for a ceiling week, but he should have close to a 60-yard floor if he’s able to play.
TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 18: @Bal.): Freiermuth saw his highest target total since week 11 on Monday night, but he turned it into an underwhelming 5-22 line. It’s hard to put much blame on Pat as Ben Roethlisberger put up literally one of the least efficient passing performances of all-time. He became only the 14th QB ever to have a game with 20+ attempts, a 50% completion percentage or better, and fewer than 3 yards per attempt. Ben had 14 more passing attempts Monday night than any of the other 13 QBs on the list. I can’t imagine that Ben is that inefficient again this week, and the Ravens allow the 6th-most TE points per game. Freiermuth is always a fringe TE1, and this week he gets a plus matchup with Big Ben due for a bounce-back game. I like his chances at a strong game.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 18: @Mia.): I expect the Patriots to be in control of their game again this week, and for Jones to be efficient in a conservative gameplan again, but I don’t expect the team to put up anywhere near the 50 points they scored last Sunday. You could do worse if you’re looking for a QB2, but Mac has a limited ceiling in this one. He’s thrown for under 230 yards in 7 of his last 9 games and accounted for multiple TDs in just 4 of them.
RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 18: vs. KC): In two games with Drew Lock under center, Williams has run for 42 yards on 21 carries, and posted 10 receiving yards on 3 targets and 3 receptions. He was able to salvage his day in week 16 with a TD, but he put up just 4.2 PPR points in championship week. Defenses have been able to stack the box to prevent Denver’s run game from getting going, and I don’t see that changing this week. The Chiefs can lock up the #2 seed and homefield advantage through the divisional round with a win and should be motivated. Williams put up his best game of the season in the Broncos’ first meeting with KC, but he did that with Melvin Gordon sidelined and Teddy B under center. Javonte has a bright future in 2022, but I wouldn’t treat him as anything more than an upside RB3 this week.
RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 18: @TB): Sam Darnold’s return to the starting lineup last week was clearly a good thing for Hubbard, who posted his best fantasy day since week 8 last weekend, but it won’t be enough to overcome a rough matchup this week. The Bucs allow the 4th-fewest RB points per game and held Hubbard to 9 yards on 6 carries just two weeks ago. Bruce Arians has also been clear that the Bucs aren’t resting up for the playoffs. They’re playing to win this week. Hubbard has upside as the Panthers’ lead back, but he’s got a low floor that will get even lower if the Bucs pull away in this one.
WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 18: vs. Dal.): Everything about this game points towards both teams resting their starters for a large chunk of the game. Smith has earned more than 6 targets just once in the last 9 games. There could be a bigger target share than usual for him with Dallas Goedert on the Covid list, but that won’t matter all that much if he plays a limited number of snaps and matches up with Trevon Diggs when he’s on the field. Smith has WR2/3 upside as usual, but he’s got a lower floor than usual as well.
WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 18: @Cle.): I know, Chase single-handedly won many people their championships last weekend, but he’s as dicey a play this week as he’s been all season. The Bengals have already ruled out Joe Burrow for this week and will likely be without Joe Mixon as well. Any hopes the Bengals have to secure the AFC’s 1-seed will be dashed if the Chiefs win on Saturday, and I wouldn’t expect them to go all-out when a win this week simply guarantees them the 3-seed instead of #4. Brandon Allen will start in Burrow’s place. He got 5 starts last season and averaged just 191 passing yards and 1 TD per game. The Browns have allowed the 12th-fewest WR points per game, and there’s a real chance that Chase won’t play the full game. If you have a week 18 game, I’d view Chase as a very risky WR3 option, and wouldn’t pay up for him in DFS at his $8,300 DraftKings price.
TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 18: @NYG): Bates has proven to be a viable desperation floor play tight end since taking over the starting job in Washington. He’s reached 35 yards in 3 of the last 5 games, and found the end zone in one of them, but that’s not enough to make him a reasonable starting option if you’re not desperate. He’s also more expensive than I’d like for DFS given what his production has looked like. A line in the range of 3-40 with a slim chance of a TD feels like the high end of what you should expect here. Dalton Schultz is the only tight end to score 10+ fantasy points against the Giants in the last 6 weeks.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 18: @Buf.): Wilson has played improved football in recent weeks, but the Bills defense has held 7 of the last 9 QBs they’ve faced below 12 fantasy points, and they figure to be locked-in for this one with the division title at stake. Even with his improved play, Wilson has only accounted for multiple TDs 4 times all season. There’s a lot more floor than ceiling here.
QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 18: vs. Ind.): The Colts allow the 8th-most QB points per game, but Lawrence has topped a dozen fantasy points just twice in his last 10 games, and the Colts need to win this game to make the playoffs. I wouldn’t count on an out-of-the-blue breakout game for Lawrence. Hopefully he’s able to put things back together next season with a new coaching staff.
WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 18: @LV): With all the Chargers’ receivers healthy last week, Palmer still garnered 5 targets for the Chargers, but his playing time dropped significantly from week 16. Jalen Guyton is another week removed from the Covid list, so Palmer’s snap share could drop further this week. Palmer has reached 30 receiving yards just twice all season. He played over 85% of the offensive snaps in both of those games. He won’t approach that kind of playing time in the must-win matchup with the Raiders.
WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 18: vs. Ten.): Collins costs too much to be a worthwhile DFS play in a plus matchup for WRs, and he isn’t a consistent enough producer to be worth consideration for regular lineups. Collins has put up 7-82-1 on 13 targets in the last 3 weeks combined. The Titans allow the 2nd-most WR points per game, but the only trustworthy WR in this offense in Brandin Cooks.
WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 18: @Ari.): The Seahawks don’t have much to play for this weekend, but I expect Pete Carroll to attempt to make a last stand of sorts. A win this week probably won’t put his job on any more stable footing, but I expect Carroll to coach to win. Eskridge hasn’t handled more than 3 touches in any game this season, and I don’t see a good reason that changes this week.
TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 18: vs. Ten.): Jordan has been targeted more than 4 times in a game just once all season, and the Titans have allowed the 6th-fewest TE points per game this season. Tennessee needs a win in this game to secure a first-round bye, and they’ll be eager to avenge a loss to Houston in week 11, so there will be no let up from their defense. Jordan should see a handful of targets, but that’s not likely to be enough for a productive week in this one. No tight end has scored a TD against the Titans since week 8.
TE Kenny Yeboah, NYJ (Wk. 18: @Buf.): Yeboah was thrust into the starting role last week with Trevon Wesco on IR and Tyler Kroft on the Covid list, but it resulted in just 2 targets for the rookie. Kroft was activated earlier this week. That means Yeboah probably plays closer to 30% of the snaps than the 61% share he played last Sunday. I’d be surprised if he sees more than 2 or 3 targets in this one, and he’s facing a Buffalo defense that allows the 5th-fewest TE points per game.
TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 18: @TB): Tremble missed last week with Covid. If he’s feeling any lingering effects from that, it makes his chances of a longshot good game even longer. Even if he’s at full strength, Tremble’s best fantasy performance in the last 10 games resulted in 5.5 PPR points. There isn’t any upside here.
Rookies Who Could Get Extended Playing Time in Week 18:
RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 18: vs. Dal., DK Showdown price: $1,600): Miles Sanders has been ruled out for week 18, and Jordan Howard and Boston Scott were both placed on the Covid list earlier this week. That leaves Gainwell as the only healthy back on the team. Obviously, it’s possible that one or both of Howard and Scott get cleared to return this week, but if they don’t, Gainwell is going to handle a huge number of touches against a Dallas team that may be resting starters since they’ve already clinched the division. Don’t be surprised if Gainwell comes out of nowhere to post a top-15 RB performance in the finale.
RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 18: @Cle., DK Showdown price: $1,000): With Joe Mixon sidelined this week, the Bengals’ backfield work will be split between Samaje Perine and Evans. Perine has been the clear-cut RB2 in this offense this year, but this could be a golden opportunity to get the receiving specialist Evans some extra work with the Bengals nearly a touchdown underdog. Brandon Allen is more likely to check down than Joe Burrow. I’d expect Evans to play at least 25% of the offensive snaps, with the possibility for more if the Bengals do fall behind. 5+ targets and 5+ carries are well within the reasonable range of expectations for Evans this week.
RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 18: @Min., DK Showdown price: $800): The Bears and Vikings don’t have much to play for this week with both eliminated from playoff contention. I think it’s likely that Matt Nagy knows that a win here won’t save his job, so there’s no reason to run David Montgomery into the ground. Andy Dalton gets the start for Chicago with Justin Fields on the Covid list, and I’d expect Chicago to be handing off plenty. Herbert is a risky option who is only worth consideration for Showdown DFS contests, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he sees increased playing time in the 2nd half against a defense that ranks 25th in run defense DVOA.
RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 18: vs. Cin., DK Showdown price: $200): It remains up in the air whether or not Kareem Hunt will be able to return for this game and D’Ernest Johnson was placed on the Covid list this week. That leaves just Felton behind Nick Chubb on the Browns’ running back depth chart. Johnson has played over 30% of the offensive snaps in each of the last 3 games with Hunt sidelined. If Johnson can’t get cleared, I wouldn’t expect Felton’s role to be quite that big, but 20+ snaps are a possibility. His receiving skill gives him a double-digit point ceiling even if his floor remains non-existent.
WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 18: vs. Cin., DK Showdown price: $1,400): Schwartz played his highest snap share since week 9 last Monday, taking snaps away from Rashard Higgins in the process. The Browns could increase that even more this week as they evaluate what they have in the rookie. Case Keenum will be starting at QB for the Browns, and Schwartz likely has a solid rapport with Keenum due to practicing together with the second team offense. Schwartz has been targeted 3+ times in just 3 games this season, and one of them was Keenum’s only start of the season. The Bengals will be resting many of their starters, which means Schwartz could make a splash play or two against their backup DBs. His floor is essentially 0 points, but there’s a chance for a boom game here.
WR Amari Rodgers, GB (Wk. 18: @Det., DK Showdown price: $200): I’d be surprised if any key Packers are still on the field in the 2nd half of this game, and even Jordan Love should be able to have success throwing against Detroit’s defense that ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA. I expect Amari and Equanimeous St. Brown to play a lot in the second half, and that gives Amari huge upside at his $200 Showdown slate price tag.
That’s all I’ve got for this season. Hopefully it helps guide you to championship victory in your leagues if that’s still up for grabs, or at least a little DFS cash. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. It’s been a pleasure bringing you these rookie tidbits all year, and I look forward to doing it again with the new rookie crop in 2022. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
January
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve finally arrived at the week we’ve been waiting for – Championship Week! Hopefully your squads have survived the rigors of the season, and the multitude of injury and Covid-19 absences in recent weeks to make it this far. Hopefully you didn’t get Tee Higgins’d, or Justin Jackson’d or Rex Burkhead-ed last weekend. Week 16 served as a valuable reminder that it doesn’t matter what your team did for the first 15 weeks of the season. What matters is what they do this week. Don’t completely throw caution to the wind and bench your best players, but don’t be afraid to think a little outside the box this week.
I want to emphasize, this week of all weeks, not to take the headers below as gospel. Please consider your league rules and what your roster looks like when applying any of the advice below. Don’t start Rhamondre Stevenson over a back like Ronald Jones or Chase Edmonds, or Amon Ra-St. Brown over receivers like Michael Pittman or Brandin Cooks just because I said I’d lean towards starting them. Put it in the context of your team and make the decision that makes the most sense for your roster.
A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game numbers and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 17…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 17: vs. Cle.): The Browns aren’t a great matchup for running backs, allowing the 10th-fewest running back points per game, but Najee has scored a dozen or more fantasy points in 12 of his 15 games this season, including 19.5 points in his first meeting with the Browns. He has to be in your lineup this week if you have him.
WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 17: vs. KC): Chase got back on track in week 16 with his first 100-yard game since October, and that should give you the confidence you need to fire him up Sunday. The Chiefs aren’t a pushover on defense, allowing the 11th-fewest WR points per game and ranking 13th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat, but they’re hardly a matchup to run away from. The Bengals have been more pass-heavy in recent weeks (Joe Burrow has averaged 35.5 attempts in the last 4 weeks after averaging 30.8 prior to that), and they’ll likely have to throw in this one as 5-point underdogs. We’ve seen that the floor isn’t as rock solid as we’d like with Chase, but few WRs can match his ceiling.
WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 17: @Ten.): Since Tua returned from IR in week 6, Waddle is the PPR WR7. He’s tallied 7+ receptions in 7 of 9 games in that stretch, and 60+ receiving yards in 8 of 9. He hasn’t flashed week-winning upside often, but he should be as safe as it gets facing a Titans’ defense that allows the 2nd-most WR points per game.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 17: vs. Hou.): Lance is in line to make his second start of the season with Jimmy Garoppolo battling a thumb ailment, and he gets a reasonable matchup in the Houston Texans. The Texans have been playing better defense in recent weeks, holding 4 of the last 7 QBs they’ve faced below a dozen points, but for the season they’ve allowed the 15th-most QB points per game and rank a middling 15th in pass defense DVOA. Lance’s rushing ability also gives him a built-in floor that those other QBs the Texans limited didn’t have. The Texans have allowed the 2nd-fewest QB rushing yards per game, which sounds daunting for Lance...but in the two games where Lance has seen extended playing time, he ran for 41 yards in one half against the defense that allows the 4th-fewest QB rushing yards (Seattle), and for 89 yards against the defense that allows the 12th-fewest QB rushing yards (Arizona). Designed runs will be a part of the game plan, and I expect Lance to put up the highest QB rushing total the Texans have allowed this season (their current high is 41). I’d view Lance as a low-end QB1 this week, and he could finish as a high-end QB1 if he has an efficient passing day.
QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 17: vs. Jax.): I’d only lean towards playing Jones in 2-QB and Superflex formats, but the Jaguars have proven easier to attack through the air than on the ground this season. Blowout losses have limited how much passing volume the Jaguars have faced, but QBs have still done some damage with that limited volume. 6 of the last 9 QBs they faced threw for fewer than 200 yards, but 4 of those 6 QBs still put up 15+ fantasy points. The Jaguars rank 31st in pass defense DVOA and a middling 16th in run defense DVOA. The Patriots are favored by 16.5 points, so this one very well could get out of hand and have the Pats running for much of the 2nd half, but I like Jones’ chances to make an impact before it’s too lopsided. A 200-yard, 3-score kind of game is what you’re hoping for here.
QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 17: @SF): It feels like only yesterday that twitter was cracking jokes about Mills’ weirdly long giraffe neck, but his play on the field over the last couple months should have them talking about him for a different reason. In his last 4 starts, Mills has averaged 276 passing yards per game, and racked up a 7 to 2 TD:INT ratio, and he’s finished as a top-15 fantasy QB in every one of those weeks. All 4 of the defenses he faced in those games have allowed fewer QB points per game this season than the 49ers. Mills isn’t going to go out and drop 25+ fantasy points in championship week. He doesn’t have that kind of big ceiling, but he’s a much safer QB2 option than you might realize.
RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 17: vs. Hou.): Mitchell seems to be trending in the right direction to play this week, and coach Kyle Shanahan is quoted as saying “We’ll play Elijah as much as he can handle.” The 49ers are likely to run the ball as much as they can against a Houston defense that ranks 26th in run defense DVOA and allows the 4th-most running back points per game, and the threat of QB Trey Lance running the ball could make it even easier for Mitchell to find space to run. There’s obvious baked-in risk here since Mitchell has missed the last 3 games and could be eased in, but the upside in this matchup is big if he sees 15+ touches. I’d treat him as an upside RB2 in championship week.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 17: vs. Jax.): If you read about Mac Jones above, you know that the Patriots are more than a 2-touchdown favorite in this game, and that should mean a lot of Rhamondre and Damien Harris. The Jaguars have been an average run defense, ranking 16th in run defense DVOA, but Stevenson should see plenty of volume in a one-sided game. Stevenson has handled 10+ carries in 5 of the last 6 games he’s played. He topped 60 rushing yards in 4 of them and seems a sure bet for 10+ carries again this week. I wouldn’t treat him as a surefire top-20 play this week, but if you’re searching for a flex play, Stevenson is a player I like this week. If you do plan to start him, keep an eye on reports from the Pats to make sure he isn’t suffering any ill effects from his bout with Covid. If he’s good to go, he’s a strong flex play/RB3.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 17: @Sea.): ARSB has already shown us that he can produce without Jared Goff under center, posting a 9-91-1 receiving line with Tim Boyle under center last week. I’m not going to be the one to bet against him keeping it up just because D’Andre Swift is back. St. Brown has seen 11+ targets in 4 straight games and faces a defense this week that ranks 28th in pass defense DVOA. Swift will likely cut into his target share a little bit, but he’s likely going to be in the range of 7-9 targets against this defense, which is enough to make the Sun God an upside PPR WR3 again this week.
WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 17: @Was.): Smith has shown us the peaks and valleys that come with being the WR1 in a run-heavy offense over the last two months. Devonta’s played 8 games since the Eagles’ philosophical shift to running the ball happened. He scored over 17 fantasy points in 3 of them, and fewer than 6 points in 4 of them, including in the first meeting with Washington. That same boom-or-bust element applies in week 17, but I like Smith’s chances at greatly improving on the 3-40 line he posted against Washington two weeks ago. In that game, Washington was missing key pieces of their front 7 due to Covid, and the Eagles were able to have their way with them on the ground, running for over 6 yards per carry with their running backs. Most of those Washington defenders are now back, and the Eagles will be playing without Miles Sanders and possibly without Jordan Howard (the two backs who piled up those yards). I don’t expect Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell to have the same success running the ball this time around against a defense that ranks 15th in run defense DVOA. That means increased passing volume against a defense that allows the 3rd-most WR points per game. I think Smith posts a double-digit point performance Sunday.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 17: vs. TB): You probably aren’t considering Wilson anyway, but Tampa has allowed the 9th-most QB points per game and have already ruled out two of their top pass rushers for this week (Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaquil Barrett). Wilson also flashed some running ability last week against the Jaguars. There are reasons to think he’s a sneaky QB2 play this week despite being a 2-touchdown underdog. I just want to remind you that it’s not worth the risk in championship week. Wilson has thrown for 230+ yards just twice all year, run for 20+ just twice all year, and accounted for multiple TDs just 4 times in 11 starts, and the Bucs rank 4th in pass defense DVOA. It would be a huge roll of the dice to trust Wilson in championship week.
RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 17: @LAC): With Drew Lock under center, the Broncos’ run game cratered last week as the Raiders were able to focus on stopping Williams and Melvin Gordon. Williams posted 12 yards and a score on 7 rushes while Gordon ran 7 times for negative-4 yards. The matchup is better this week against a Chargers’ defense that ranks dead last in run defense DVOA, but the Denver passing game will offer even less of a threat this week with Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick sidelined by Covid, and Williams is battling through a knee injury that may have contributed to his poor performance last week. There’s plenty of upside here as the Chargers allow the 3rd-most RB points per game, but I’d rather rely on a more trustworthy option with my season on the line this week.
RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 17: vs. TB): Carter returned from IR last week and handled a 74% snap share and 19 touches in a strong performance against the Jaguars. The sledding gets much tougher this week against Tampa Bay. Carter should again handle most of the backfield work, which puts him very much in play as an RB2 or RB3 this week, but Tampa has allowed the 3rd-fewest rushing yards this season and ranks 11th in run defense DVOA. They’ve been vulnerable to backs in the passing game, allowing nearly 7 receptions per game to backs, but Carter hasn’t been targeted by Zach Wilson more than 3 times in any game this season. All of his best receiving efforts happened while Wilson was sidelined. Counting on garbage time receiving work for Carter seems like an ill-advised strategy in championship week.
RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 17: @NO): Hubbard has averaged just 8 carries and fewer than 1 target per game in the last 3 weeks, and this week faces a defense that ranks 1st in run defense DVOA and allows the fewest running back points per game. He’ll continue to operate as the lead back on early downs, but even if the Panthers are more competitive this week and Hubbard gets more carries, there’s no guarantee he’s more successful with those carries or that he won’t get vultured by Cam at the goal line. I wouldn’t count on double-digit points for Chuba.
WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 17: vs. LAR): Bateman has been playing an every down role the last two weeks, and the Ravens are underdogs and should be throwing against a middling Rams’ WR defense (they allow the 15th-fewest points per game to the position). Despite that, I’d steer clear of him in your championship matchups. There’s a possibility Sammy Watkins sees more work this week in his second game back from the Covid list, and Bateman has really only had one productive quarter in his last 5 games. He tallied 5 receptions for 79 yards in the 4th quarter of a furious comeback attempt against the Browns in week 14. Outside of that quarter, he’s totaled 11 catches, 115 yards, and 1 touchdown in the last 5 games. Of course, there’s upside for him here if the Ravens fall behind and have to throw, but a 4-30 kind of game is just as likely (if not more likely) than an 80+ yard day.
WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 17: @SF): Collins has come on a bit in recent weeks, with double-digit PPR points in two of his last 3 games, but his production hasn’t been consistent enough to trust him this week with your season on the line. The 49ers do allow the 9th-most WR points per game, but Brandin Cooks is easily the WR1 in this offense that has thrown the ball 30 or fewer times in 5 of their last 6 games. It’s possible the Texans fall in a hole and have to throw a bit more in this one (they’re 12.5-point underdogs), but I like their chances to stay within striking distance as Trey Lance makes just his 2nd NFL start. Despite Collins’ recent increased workload, he’s reached 35+ receiving yards just once in the last 7 games.
WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 17: vs. Den.): Palmer was a great streamer play in two of the last 3 weeks while the Chargers battled Covid issues in their wide receiver room. He posted 15+ PPR points in week 14 and week 16, but both Mike Williams and Jalen Guyton have been cleared to return this week. We’ve seen a trend of players coming off the Covid list getting their workload dialed back a bit, so Palmer could still see extended playing time, but the Broncos allow the 8th-fewest WR points per game. The matchup isn’t good, and Palmer’s floor is basically non-existent if Williams and Guyton get their usual workloads.
TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 17: vs. Cle.): Freiermuth is expected back this week, and you know what to expect from him if he plays. He’s going to probably have 3-4 receptions for 30-40 yards, and he may or may not find the end zone. It’s that last part that will determine if he was a good play or not. Freiermuth has found the end zone in 6 of the last 9 games he’s played, including in the first meeting with these Browns, but many of the TDs the Browns have allowed to tight ends have been to elite players at the position. Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews have accounted for half of the 8 TDs the Browns have allowed to tight ends. Ultimately, if you’re projected to win your matchup this week and just need floor production from the position, Freiermuth is probably fine, but he doesn’t provide much upside beyond 15 or so PPR points. He’s a low-end TE1 this week.
TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 17: @Buf.): You might not have a better option on your roster but be warned that this is a dangerous matchup for Pitts. The Bills allow the 3rd-fewest tight end points per game and have only allowed 2 tight ends all season to score as many as 9 fantasy points (Logan Thomas and Travis Kelce). Pitts’ volume should be there. He’s been targeted 6+ times in all but two games this season, but tight ends with 6+ targets against Buffalo have averaged just 7.7 fantasy points against them. Pitts is still a low-end TE1 play based on his volume and role in the offense, but the floor here is lower than usual.
TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 17: @SF): Jordan has carved out a nice chunk of the Texans passing game for himself in recent weeks despite serving as the team’s TE2 behind Pharaoh Brown. Over his last 4 games, he’s totaled 18 targets, 13 receptions, 112 yards and 2 TDs and been the TE14 over that span. I don’t see this as a week where he exceeds that rank. The 49ers have allowed the 6th-fewest TE points per game. They’ve allowed just 3 tight ends to exceed 40 receiving yards against them all year and haven’t allowed a tight end touchdown since week 10. Jordan is a TD dart throw that I’d bet against scoring a TD this week.
TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): Bates has functioned as Washington’s starting tight end for about a month now, and he faces off with the worst TE defense in the NFL this week, so he’s worth at least some consideration as a desperation streamer. I’d still look elsewhere this week if you’re digging this deep. Last week was the first time in the 3 games since Ricky Seals-Jones returned from IR that Bates out-targeted RSJ, and neither player had a target until the second half of that game when Washington trailed by 5+ touchdowns. There’s a risk that RSJ plays more this week if there’s less garbage time, and that pushes an already shaky streamer to an unusable range for me. Bates is also too rich for my blood in DFS showdown contests ($4,600 on DraftKings).
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 17: @NE): The Pats remain a nightmare matchup for most rookie QBs. Since Bill Belichick took over as New England’s head coach in 2000, the Pats have held 49% of the rookie QBs they’ve faced below 10 fantasy points (17 out of 35). Lawrence has accounted for just 1 total touchdown in his last 8 games, and the Jaguars have an implied point total of just 12.5 points this week. You could take a chance on T-Law as a QB2 on the sole basis that he’s due for a good game, but nothing about this matchup or Lawrence’s recent performance points to a solid game for the rookie.
QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 17: vs. NYG): If you missed the update, the Bears announced Friday that Andy Dalton will start in week 17 with Fields still battling through an injury. I’d be surprised if Fields is active.
RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 17: vs. NYG): The Giants are bad enough that the Bears could actually pull off a convincing win this week and allow Herbert to get some extended run late in the game, but you can’t count on that in championship week. Khalil has handled 5 or fewer touches in all 7 games since David Montgomery returned from IR.
RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 17: @Pit.): Felton filled in a lot at slot WR in week 15 with Jarvis Landry out with Covid, but he was back down to just 4 snaps on Sunday with Landry back. He’s not start-able.
RB Kene Nwangwu, MIN (Wk. 17: @GB): The new NFL Covid protocols announced this week made it easier for Dalvin Cook to return for this game, so Cook and Alexander Mattison should handle the bulk of the backfield work in this one. Nwangwu will be back to handling just special teams.
WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 17: @Dal.): Moore missed last week with an ankle injury, but the same things I wrote about him last week still apply. He hasn’t topped 50 scrimmage yards in his last 9 games, and Dallas ranks 1st in pass defense DVOA. If there’s one glimmer of hope for Moore this week, it’s that the Cowboys allow the 3rd-most yards after catch, but you can’t count on a useful game from Rondale if he’s active given what we’ve gotten from him this year.
WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 17: vs. Det.): With Tyler Lockett back in action last week, Eskridge was back down to playing just 20 offensive snaps. He still saw 3 targets and one rushing attempt on those limited snaps, but I wouldn’t bet on a breakout game here against a defense that allows the 10th-fewest WR points per game. The Seahawks have a great chance to play from ahead for once and lean on the run game as 7-point favorites.
WR Dez Fitzpatrick, TEN (Wk. 17: vs. Mia.): The Titans are battling some Covid issues this week with Julio Jones and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine expected to miss this game on the reserve list, but don’t count on that resulting in a significant opportunity for Dez. AJ Brown saw a 55% target share in his first game back from IR. I don’t expect that share to be quite as high this week, but AJB should dominate targets again in what is already a low volume passing attack. The WR scraps will be split between Fitzpatrick, Racey McMath, and Chester Rodgers. Even against a Miami defense allowing the 8th-most WR points per game, none of that trio are worth anything more than a low-cost dart throw in DFS showdown contests. Dez, at $200 on DraftKings, is probably the most cost-effective option, but none are particularly good plays.
WRs Terrace Marshall Jr. & Shi Smith, CAR (Wk. 17: @NO): The Panthers’ passing game got even harder to predict last week with Sam Darnold and Cam Newton splitting playing time at QB. Marshall is playing a lot of snaps as the WR3, but he isn’t getting targeted. He has just 2 targets across nearly 80 offensive snaps played in the last 3 games. Smith, on the other hand, was productive last week (3 catches for 86 yards on 4 targets) but played just 15 snaps. Neither is trustworthy in championship week.
WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 17: @Pit.): Schwartz got in the end zone last week but handled just 3 touches on 11 offensive snaps in the process. He’s the distant WR4 in this offense right now.
WR Tylan Wallace, BAL (Wk. 17: vs. LAR): Wallace saw his first extended action of the season last week with Devin Duvernay sidelined and Sammy Watkins playing just 3 snaps in his return from the Covid list. He was targeted just twice. Duvernay could be out again, but I’d expect Watkins to see his playing time ramped up. Another 2-target game would be a reasonable expectation for Wallace this week.
WR Ben Skowronek, LAR (Wk. 17: @Bal.): Skowronek followed his best game of the season by playing just 4 offensive snaps last weekend. The return of Tyler Higbee seems to have drastically cut into his playing time. He’s off the fantasy radar this week.
WRs Dyami Brown & Dax Milne, WAS (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): Don’t let a few targets and big play by Dyami last week fool you. These guys aren’t worth consideration. They played a combined 20 snaps last week, and the Eagles allow the 2nd-fewest WR points per game. Elijah Moore is the only receiver to score 10+ points against Philly in their last 6 games.
WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 17: @Chi.): Toney returned last week to NINE targets against the Eagles, but he’s suffered another injury and been ruled out for week 17. He just can’t stay on the field.
TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 17: @NO): Tremble hasn’t topped 4 targets or 35 receiving yards in any game this season, and he hasn’t scored a touchdown since week 5. The Saints allow the 9th-fewest TE points per game. Tremble isn’t a streaming option. (Update: Tremble was added to the Covid list on Friday.)
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): You could make a case that Patterson belongs in the borderline options this week with Antonio Gibson and JD McKissic both sidelined and Philly allowing the 14th-most RB points per game, but he won’t have the job entirely to himself. Jonathan Williams and Wendell Smallwood will both mix-in a bit, and Patterson hasn’t been utilized much in the passing game, which is where Philly is most vulnerable to backs. The Eagles have allowed the 2nd-most RB receptions per game. Patterson should still handle 10-15 touches in this one, which puts him on the flex radar in deeper leagues and makes him a value in DFS contests at his current price, but I wouldn’t view him as one of the top RB streamers of the week.
RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 17: @Was.): Miles Sanders’ injury alone doesn’t make Gainwell a usable player this week, but that changes if Jordan Howard is out as well. Howard is going to be a game-time call. If he’s out, that leaves just Boston Scott and Gainwell to handle the backfield work against a middling run defense. The Eagles have had at least two backs handle 10+ touches in every game since week 8, and I don’t expect that to change here. If Howard sits, Gainwell becomes an intriguing DFS tournament option and an upside flex play in deeper leagues.
TE Tre’ McKitty, LAC (Wk. 17: vs. Den.): You’d have to be digging pretty deep in a DFS contest to be looking at McKitty, but the Chargers are down their top 2 tight ends this week with Jared Cook added to the Covid list late in the week. Stephen Anderson will likely function as the starting tight end, but the TE2 in this offense typically sees a 35%+ snap share. Denver doesn’t give up a ton of production to tight ends (allow the 4th-fewest points per game to the position), but you could do worse than McKitty if you’re looking for a bargain basement option in a showdown contest this week. He costs just $400 in the showdown slate on DraftKings.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to championship victory in your leagues. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. I know this is championship week, but I’ll be back next week with a quick look at week 18 as well for you DFS players and those with week 18 championships. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
December
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! If you thought surviving last week’s Covid nightmare week was fun, how about we do it all over again? Week 16’s news updates have included an onslaught of positive Covid tests and have left a lot of playoff fantasy rosters scrambling. We already saw last week how rookies like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Justin Fields can be useful fill-ins, and there are certainly going to be more rookies that can help fill gaps in week 16. I’m here to walk you through what to expect from the rookie crop in this crucial fantasy week.
A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game numbers and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 16…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 16: @KC): Harris has posted a couple duds in recent weeks, including an awful game last week against the Titans, but he should be in line for a bounce back game against the Chiefs. Kansas City has allowed the 12th-most running back points per game and has given up the 5th-most RB receptions and 3rd-most RB receiving yards. Najee is tied with Austin Ekeler for the 2nd-most RB receptions this season. His workload isn’t going anywhere. Najee is still a top-12 RB play this week despite some recent down games. You have to keep starting him.
WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 16: @NO): Waddle has hauled in 8 or more receptions in 4 of his last 5 games played, and the Saints have allowed the 7th-most WR points per game. Marshon Lattimore isn’t going to cover Waddle in the slot. Don’t overthink this one. Waddle is a WR2 this weekend.
WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 16: vs. Bal.): You might not be still in the fantasy playoffs if you were relying on Chase last week, but you have to go back to the well again this week if you’re still alive. Chase has too high of a ceiling to leave him on your bench. The Ravens lost Marlon Humphrey to a season-ending pec injury a couple weeks ago, and this week will be without Jimmy Smith on the Covid list. The Bengals are going to try to take some deep shots to take advantage, and Chase topped 200 receiving yards against the Ravens when their corners were healthy. You’ll be kicking yourself if he scores 20+ points from your bench.
Borderline Rookies I Would Lean Toward Starting:
QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 16: @Sea.): Fields has finished as a top-10 QB in each of his last 4 full games played, and there’s no reason he can’t make it 5-for-5 this week. The Seahawks have allowed the 10th-fewest QB points per game, but they rank just 28th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. They’ve allowed the 5th-fewest QB rushing yards, but most of the QBs they’ve faced have been statues. They’ve faced only 6 QBs all season with more than 100 rushing yards on the year, and 4 of them ran for more than 20 yards against the Seahawks. Fields will have his usual rushing upside, and he’ll have a chance to throw a bunch as well with the Bears a touchdown underdog. If you’re looking for a streaming QB this week, Fields would be a good option again.
RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 16: @LV): Williams continues to split the backfield with Melvin Gordon, but it hasn’t stopped him from coming on strong late in the season. Williams has topped 80 scrimmage yards in 4 of his last 5 games, 4 of which Melvin Gordon was active for. The Raiders allow the 3rd-most RB points per game, and the running back pool is a little depleted this week with Austin Ekeler, Dalvin Cook and Elijah Mitchell all likely sidelined. The Broncos are likely to lean on the ground game even more than usual with Drew Lock under center. I’d look at Javonte as a mid-range RB2 with the upside for a lot more.
RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. Jax.): Carter split the backfield with Tevin Coleman in his return from IR last week, but I’d expect him to take more of a lead role as he’s another week removed from his injury, and the Jaguars allow the 13th-most RB points per game. The Jets are actually favored for once, so I’d expect them to be able to run the ball a bit more than usual, so a lead back role for Carter probably means 15+ touches against a middling run defense. He’s not an auto-start this week, but he’s a top-24 option at the position this week.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 16: @Atl.): This is contingent on Jared Goff getting cleared from the Covid list in time for this game, but ARSB should be a solid WR3 this week if that happens. He may not see another dozen targets if D’Andre Swift is able to get cleared to play, but he’ll still be the top target among the wide receivers against a defense that allows the 3rd-most wide receiver points per game. He’s a safe bet for 8+ targets in a plus matchup no matter who is at QB for the Lions, but if it’s Tim Boyle, I’d view him more as a WR4 than WR3. The Falcons slot corner Richie Grant has allowed a passer rating of 111.6 and 8.2 yards per target on throws into his coverage. Editor's note: As of Friday morning, Goff is unlikely to start.
TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 16: vs. Det.): Pitts hasn’t set the world on fire in recent weeks, but he’s earned 6+ targets in all but 2 games this season, and the Lions defense ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA and is just a middling defense against tight ends, allowing the 15th-most points per game to the position. If you don’t have a top-8 tight end, you’re going to have a hard time finding an option who has a higher yardage floor than Pitts. Pitts is one of the few tight ends once you get past the studs who could give you a strong performance without finding the end zone.
Borderline Rookies I Would Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 16: vs. Buf.): It’s safe to assume that Jones is going to throw the ball more than 3 times in this go-round with the Bills, but he still is unlikely to be a good fantasy option. Big Ben Roethlisberger scored 12.04 fantasy points against the Bills in week 1. That is still the most fantasy points any QB has scored against the Bills without scoring a rushing touchdown, and Mac hasn’t scored a rushing TD since early last season at Alabama. He also may be playing without Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne this week. Jones should be considered a low-end QB2 for this week.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 16: vs. Buf.): Damien Harris is practicing in a limited capacity this week, and Stevenson is sitting out of practice with an illness (not Covid-19 as far as we know). I’d expect both to be active this week, but I don’t expect Stevenson to provide a useful fantasy day without finding his way into the end zone. In New England’s first meeting with Buffalo, the Patriots asserted their will in the ground game and Stevenson handled 24 rushing attempts. Rhamondre finished that week as the RB28. I wouldn’t expect much more than that this week in a game where the Patriots are sure to throw the ball more often than the first meeting.
RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 16: vs. TB): The potential return of Sam Darnold makes Hubbard a better play this week than he was last week, but Matt Rhule announced this week that Cam Newton and Darnold will both play in this game, making it too muddy of a situation to trust Hubbard in the fantasy playoffs. Ameer Abdullah has fully taken over the passing down role in the offense since Christian McCaffrey went down with injury, and Hubbard splits the rushing work with Newton whenever Cam is on the field. Chuba handled 19 touches in the last 2 weeks while Cam rushed the ball 25 times himself. Even if we knew Hubbard was getting all of the rushing work to himself, the Panthers are 11-point underdogs and will be throwing a bunch, and the Bucs allow the 3rd-fewest rushing yards per game. Hubbard would be a dicey RB3 option if Darnold was going to be under center all game. With Cam and Darnold splitting the QB job, Hubbard is an even worse play than that.
WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): Smith hasn’t seen more than 6 targets come his way in the last 7 games, and this week is shaping up as a week where the Eagles probably won’t have to throw much. The Giants rank just 28th in run defense DVOA and will be playing with a backup QB. Philly should have no problem running it down their throats. Smith will also likely be shadowed by James Bradberry, who held him to 2 catches and 22 yards on 4 targets in the last meeting between these teams. Smith’s ceiling has been lowered in recent weeks due to Dallas Goedert’s increased receiving usage and the team’s run-heavy approach, and this game has all the makings of being a floor week for Smith.
WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 16: @Cin.): Bateman was on the field for almost every offensive snap in week 15 with Sammy Watkins sidelined, but Tyler Huntley only had eyes for Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown in the passing game, as that duo combined for a nearly 70% target share. I’d expect those targets to be a little more spread out in this one, but Bateman has been held under 40 yards in 4 of his last 5 games. There is upside for Bateman this week - the Ravens are a 3-point underdog, Sammy Watkins is on the Covid reserve list this week, and the Bengals fielding just a middling pass defense, but the floor is low as well. I’d look for a safer option than Bateman in the fantasy playoffs.
WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 16: vs. LAC): Collins has been much more involved for the Texans in recent weeks, with 20 targets in the last 4 weeks, but this week he faces a Chargers’ defense that allows the 2nd-fewest WR points per game, and he’s topped 30 receiving yards just once in his last 6 games. Collins may see 6+ targets in this game with the Chargers heavily favored, but it’s hard to count on him returning more than WR4 production in this crucial week.
WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 16: @Hou.): The Chargers placed Jalen Guyton on the Covid list this week, which should open up playing time for Palmer if Guyton can’t get cleared before this game. I still wouldn’t expect a big week for Palmer. The Chargers are nearly double-digit favorites in this game, so they should lean on the run game, even if Austin Ekeler is out, and the Texans are much more susceptible to the run than the pass. They rank 10th in pass defense DVOA. Palmer will still be no better than 3rd in the target pecking order in this game. It would be a pleasant surprise if Palmer tops 50 yards in this game.
TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 16: @KC): Freiermuth suffered a concussion in week 15 and might not clear the protocol in time to face the Chiefs. If he does get cleared, this isn’t a slam-dunk start for him. Muth has gotten by on touchdowns. He’s failed to top 50 yards in any game since week 6, but he’s found the end zone 6 times in the last 8 games. Kansas City hasn’t allowed a tight end touchdown since week 8. The Steelers could be forced to throw a bunch as a 10-point underdog, but I’d still view Freiermuth as a fringe TE1 play if he’s able to go. I’d be looking for a higher upside option in the fantasy playoffs. Zach Gentry would have a little deep league appeal if Pat is out.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. Jax.): This is a favorable matchup for Wilson against a defense that ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA, but he’s still playing without his top 2 wide receivers and hasn’t been a trustworthy fantasy option. Wilson has averaged just 186 passing yards per game since returning from IR and has accounted for more than 1 score in just 3 games all season. The Jets are actually favored to win this game, which may mean even lower passing volume than usual. He’s only worth consideration if you’re desperate for a QB2.
QB Ian Book, NO (Wk. 16: vs. Mia.): Book is likely to make his first start this week with Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian both on the Covid reserve list, but he shouldn’t be in your fantasy lineups. The Dolphins have given up an average of fewer than 12 QB fantasy points per game during their 6-game winning streak, and the Saints will likely be conservative with the game plan and try to win behind their defense and Alvin Kamara. There is a little bit of Konami code rushing upside to Book’s game. He ran for over 1,000 total rushing yards in his last two seasons at Notre Dame, so he’ll be interesting in showdown contests if the price is right, but there are currently no showdown prices posted on DraftKings for this game. Book is a bottom-of-the-barrel play in season-long leagues.
RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): Gainwell was an afterthought in the Philly offense last week in a comfortable win against a shorthanded Washington team, with Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard handling the backfield work, and I’d expect similar usage this week unless the Eagles pull away and blow the Giants out. Philly is a 10-point favorite, so that’s entirely possible, but it’s not something I’d want to rely on in the playoffs.
RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 16: @Sea.): Herbert did get some extended run in hurry-up mode late on Monday night, catching 3 passes for 34 yards, and the Bears may try to get him more involved with their season essentially over. He’s still averaged just 3 touches per game since David Montgomery returned from IR (no more than 5 touches in any single game). I wouldn’t be seriously considering him anywhere unless we get word that the Bears are going to cut back on Monty’s usage down the stretch.
RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 16: @Dal.): Patterson scored his first NFL touchdown on Tuesday night, but he’s still not seeing a ton of playing time as Antonio Gibson has taken over a bigger share of the backfield workload with JD McKissic sidelined. Gibson has played more than two-thirds of the offensive snaps in each of the last 4 games, and Patterson has totaled just 10 touches in the 3 games that McKissic has missed. The Cowboys allow the 3rd-fewest RB points per game, so Patterson is unlikely to do much damage on only a handful of touches.
RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 16: @GB): Felton was on the field for more than 50% of the Browns’ offensive snaps last week with the team drastically shorthanded at wide receiver and tight end due to a Covid outbreak, but it led to just 4 targets, 3 catches and 16 yards. Keep an eye on the injury updates, but I’d expect Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper to each return this week, which would push Felton back to the bench. He’s a low-upside dart throw if both remain sidelined again.
RB Jermar Jefferson, DET (Wk. 16: @Atl.): Jefferson already isn’t getting onto the field behind Craig Reynolds and Godwin Igwebuike (9 total snaps in the last two weeks). Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift may both be back this week. A healthy scratch is very possible for Jermar.
RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 16: vs. Bal.): Evans returned from his ankle injury last week but logged just 6 snaps and zero touches. He’s got some work to do to get back into the mix in the Bengals’ backfield.
RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 16: @Ten.): If you missed the news, Mitchell has been ruled out for Thursday night’s tilt with the Titans. It’ll be Jeff Wilson, JaMycal Hasty and Deebo Samuel manning the 49ers’ backfield again on Thursday.
WR Ben Skowronek, LAR (Wk. 16: @Min.): Skowronek played his best game of the season on Tuesday night, but it was likely just a blip on the radar for him. He hauled in 4 passes for 42 yards on 5 targets but was on the field for just 21 snaps. You can’t rely on that kind of production repeating itself on that kind of playing time, even against a Minnesota defense that allows the most wide receiver points per game. A repeat of last week’s performance would be a pleasant surprise.
WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 16: vs. Ind.): Rondale has one game of 50+ scrimmage yards in his last 9 contests, and now is battling through an ankle injury that held him out of practice early in the week. There’s no reason to expect a breakout game this week against a Colts’ defense that’s in the top half of the league at limiting WR fantasy points.
WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 16: @Phi.): Toney has a chance to finally return to action this week, but he’s had a 5-week layoff and will be facing a defense that allows the 3rd-fewest wide receiver points per game. He also may have Jake Fromm at quarterback. I wouldn’t count on him this week.
WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): Tyler Lockett has been cleared to return from the Covid reserve list, so Eskridge moves back into a timeshare for the WR3 role with Freddie Swain this week. The rookie had a chance at a big game last week – he was targeted deep downfield 4 times but failed to convert any of them into catches. I wouldn’t expect him to see that kind of opportunity this week with Lockett back, even in a plus matchup against the Bears.
WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 16: vs. TB): Marshall hasn’t caught a pass since week 6 and hasn’t been targeted more than twice in a game since week 5. Even if the Panthers’ passing game improves with the return of Sam Darnold, you can’t trust Marshall in any lineups.
WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 16: @GB): Schwartz returned last Monday after missing 3 games with a concussion, but he played just 13 snaps and wasn’t targeted despite the Browns being short-handed at wide receiver. It’s possible that his playing time gets ramped up as he gets further away from the injury, but I’d expect Jarvis Landry back this week as well. Steer clear until we see more from Schwartz.
WRs Dyami Brown & Dax Milne, WAS (Wk. 16: @Dal.): Over Washington’s last 5 games, Milne and Brown have combined for 4 targets, 3 receptions, and 9 receiving yards. Don’t even consider it.
WR Dez Fitzpatrick, TEN (Wk. 16: vs. SF): Fitzpatrick missed week 15 on the Covid list, but even if he returns this week, I wouldn’t expect a substantial role in the offense. AJ Brown could return this week, and Julio Jones came back last weekend. Even if Fitzpatrick gets cleared and AJ Brown can’t play Thursday night, Fitzpatrick will have missed practice all week and likely won’t be part of the game plan.
WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette, MIN (Wk. 16: vs. LAR): Smith-Marsette managed to score his first touchdown last week, but he did so with both Adam Thielen and Dede Westbrook sidelined. Westbrook was cleared to return from the Covid list Tuesday and Thielen is expected back as well. Ihmir would be lucky to play any offensive snaps this week.
TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (WK. 16: vs. TB): Tremble gets a decent matchup this week against a bottom-10 tight end defense, but he’s reached 25 receiving yards just twice all year and the Panthers’ revolving door at QB this week is going to make it tough for Tremble to have a breakout game.
TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 16: @Dal.): Bates has played more than 60% of the Washington’s offensive snaps in each of the 2 games since Ricky Seals-Jones returned from IR and came up a yard short of a touchdown on Tuesday night, but RSJ is the tight end to consider in this offense. Seals-Jones has been targeted 11 times in the last two games. Bates has been targeted 3 times. You’d have to be pretty desperate to be considering Bates this week.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 16: vs. LAC): Mills was the 8th QB selected in this year’s NFL draft, but he’s outperformed most of the QBs selected ahead of him and gets a better matchup this week than you think. The Chargers have allowed 16+ fantasy points to each QB they’ve faced in the last 7 games, a stretch that included matchups with Mike Glennon and Teddy Bridgewater. Davis has averaged 18 fantasy points per game in his last 3 starts. There’s downside, but Mills is a sneaky QB2 option this week for an improving Texans’ offense.
QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 16: @NYJ): I know, there’s no way to trust T-Law in your fantasy playoffs after he’s accounted for just 1 touchdown in his last 7 games, but if a breakthrough is ever going to happen this season, it’s probably going to happen this week. The Jets have allowed multiple touchdowns (passing or rushing) to each of the last 10 QBs they’ve faced, and this week they’re likely to be without 6 defensive starters due to Covid-19, including 3 defensive backs. The Jaguars are undoubtedly going to lean on James Robinson in this game, but Lawrence has a real chance to finish as a top-15 QB this week. Of course, there’s risk given Lawrence’s recent performances, but there’s upside as well.
RB Kene Nwangwu, MIN (Wk. 16: vs. LAR): Nwangwu looked impressive on limited touches on Monday night, and he could be in line for expanded touches this week after Dalvin Cook tested positive for Covid this week. Alexander Mattison was activated from the Covid reserve list this week, and he’ll undoubtedly be the lead back, but Nwangwu only needs a few touches to have a chance to make an impact with his speed. He’s a sneaky option for DFS contests this week. With Cook being unvaccinated, there is a chance that he doesn’t get cleared for week 17 either, this could be a multi-week role for Kene.
RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 16: @Hou.): Disregard this if Austin Ekeler gets himself cleared from the Covid list, but there could be an opening for Rountree to have a role this week if Ekeler’s out. Rountree has been a healthy scratch in 3 of the last 4 weeks, but Joshua Kelley’s goal line fumble against the Chiefs may have opened the door for him. I’d expect Justin Jackson to function as the lead back (Austin Ekeler himself even said you should pick up Jackson on his weekly Yahoo! Fantasy football show this week), but Rountree could take over short-yardage and goal line situations. Houston ranks 27th in run defense DVOA and has allowed 6 running back rushing scores in the last 3 weeks. You can’t use Rountree in the fantasy playoffs, but he costs just $200 in showdown contests on DraftKings.
TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 16: vs. LAC): Jordan was active last week after battling through a hand injury during the week but didn’t play a single offensive snap. He’s practicing in full ahead of this week’s game with the Chargers. Jordan was targeted 11 times in weeks 13 & 14, and no team allows more points per target to tight ends than the Chargers. Los Angeles has also allowed a league-high 12 tight end scores. Jordan has more upside than usual this week, and has a great chance to finish as a top-15 TE for the week.
TE Noah Gray, KC (Wk. 16: vs. Pit.): Travis Kelce and Blake Bell are both currently on the Covid reserve list, which means Gray steps in as the starting tight end this week if neither can get cleared to return, and we know the tight end is an integral part of this offense. Gray obviously wouldn’t be the same focal point that Kelce is, but he’s likely to see a handful of targets come his way. The Steelers are a tough matchup, allowing the 8th-fewest tight end points per game, but Gray could make a great bargain basement DFS option this week.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend and helps you advance in the fantasy playoffs. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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