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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re another week deeper into the NFL season and we’ve seen another week of rookies making a big impact, especially at the QB position. Daniel Jones dazzled in his NFL debut despite a shaky start and some turnovers, Gardner Minshew continued to impress and Kyler Murray finally broke out the rushing ability. All 3 of these QBs finished the week with more fantasy points than Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, and Baker Mayfield. Marquise Brown saw his numbers come back to earth a bit, but Terry McLaurin kept chugging right along and Mecole Hardman made the most of limited targets. Tony Pollard and Alexander Mattison took advantage of garbage time to post big days, and Miles Sanders finally cracked double-digit PPR points. There’s plenty more to talk about for this week, so let’s dive in. One quick housekeeping note first - there are plenty of guys who will be listed under the same header this week, so I wanted to post a reminder that the players at the same position within each header are listed in the order I would play them this week. Here’s a look at what to expect from week 4…

Rookies to Start:

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.):  Murray’s situation has proven to be a perfect recipe for early fantasy success for the reigning Heisman winner. The Cards’ defense has been awful, which keeps the offense pushing the tempo and airing it out. Murray leads the NFL in passing attempts through 3 weeks and offset an inefficient passing day Sunday by finally using his legs and scoring some rushing points. The Seahawks have held 2 straight opponents to fewer than 200 passing yards, but those opponents were the Saints without Drew Brees and the Steelers without Ben Roethlisberger for half of the game. Andy Dalton torched them for nearly 400 yards in week 1. I’d roll with Kyler this week unless you have a locked-in QB1 option ahead of him.

WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 4: @NYG): In week 3 against the Bears McLaurin became the first receiver in league history to have at least 5 catches, 60 yards and a touchdown in each of his first 3 games, and now he draws a Giants’ defense that has been shredded by perimeter receivers. Through 3 games, they’ve given up huge games to Amari Cooper (6-106-1), Michael Gallup (7-158), John Brown (7-72), and Mike Evans (8-190-3). Although McLaurin will probably lay an egg this week just because fantasy football doesn’t like us to have nice things, on paper he looks like a high-end WR2 this week. He’ll be in my lineups where I have him, and at $4,500 on DraftKings he’s an absolute steal in DFS lineups.

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 4: vs. Cle.): Brown had a lackluster output in week 3 (2-49-0), but it wasn’t for lack of trying. Brown was targeted 9 times on the day and had some missed connections on a few deep balls. He averaged an absurd 30(!) air yards per target. This week he gets to face a Cleveland defense that has both starting outside corners struggling with hamstring injuries. They’re going to have trouble keeping Brown in front of them if they’re able to play at all. Fire up Brown as a WR2 this week and enjoy the results.

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 4: @Ari.): Metcalf has proven to be a lot more consistent than expected given his reliance on the deep ball. He’s averaging just 3 catches per game but hasn’t come up short of 60 yards in a game yet. This week he matches up with a Cardinals’ defense that is still missing Patrick Peterson and is going to have a lot of trouble containing him. This may be his best matchup of the season so far. He should be plugged in as a WR3 this week, especially in leagues that aren’t full PPR.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 4: vs. Was.): It feels rushed to list Jones as a borderline starting option in just his second NFL start, especially with Saquon Barkley out, but Daniel-san (this is what I’m going to call him - you know it’s better than Danny Dimes, and think of the Eli as Mr. Miyagi memes) gets a great matchup this week and has acquitted himself well every time he’s been on the field as a pro. Washington has given up 3 passing scores in each game this year, and Jones’ rushing ability gives him a nice cushion in case he isn’t quite as sharp as he was against Tampa. Washington ranks 27^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. Jones is a borderline top-12 option this week with the upside for another big day.

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 4: @GB): There are some warning signs we’re seeing with Sanders so far. His snap share has dropped each week of the season and was at just 34% last week, and he did lose a fumble on Sunday against the Lions. On the other hand, he also finally flashed his big play ability in the passing game posted his best game of the season. If he has his usual 10-12 carries and a few targets this week, the opportunity for another big game is there. The Packers have given up more than 350 rushing yards to opposing backs in the last 2 weeks. I’m willing to take a chance on that upside in a flex spot if you don’t have any locked in options or are scared to go back to Sony Michel or Peyton Barber again.

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 4: @Ind.): Like Sanders, Jacobs has seen his snap share drop each week. In week 2, the issue seemed to be that he was fighting through an injury. Week 3 made it clear that the issue was game script. The Raiders have been playing from far behind in each of the last 2 weeks, and Jacobs has seen less than 50% of the offensive snaps in each game as a result. The Colts are a touchdown favorite this week, which puts a damper on Jacobs’ outlook again. There are reasons for optimism though. The Raiders coaches spoke this week about wanting to get Jacobs more targets going forward, and this week he faces a run defense that ranks 30^th in run defense DVOA so far and allows 5.4 yards per carry. He’s in play as a reasonable flex option again this week.

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 4: vs. Min.): Montgomery put on a show in the 4^th quarter on Monday night flashing his signature elusiveness as he helped the Bears put the game away, but his overall usage was alarming. Prior to the game’s final drive, Monty had seen just 6 carries for 19 yards. On a positive note he did play his highest snap % of the season and finished with a respectable line. He’s the clear lead back for the Bears now, but the play calling is going to make him a bit volatile from week to week. The Vikings have been solid against the run outside of week 2 when they were carved up by Aaron Jones, but they played with big leads in the other 2 games. Game script might not be as positive here with the Bears favored. Montgomery is worth considering as a flex option, but I’d prefer both rookie RBs listed above over him this week.

WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 4: @Det.): Hardman has proven to be a reliable big play threat over the past couple weeks, but there is still a bit of boom-or-bust to his fantasy outlook, and that prevents me from making him a sure start this week. The Lions have good enough corners to not be completely helpless, but obviously any receiver in this offense is capable of having a monster game, especially on the fast track indoors. I’d feel comfortable with him as my WR3 but know that he does come with some baked-in risk if he doesn’t hit on a big play. The biggest difference between Hardman and DK Metcalf is that the there are a lot more passing targets to spread the ball to in Kansas City.

TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 4: vs. KC): I’m sure if you have Hockenson on your fantasy team and are reading this you’re thinking there is no way you’d start Hock this week. I understand that sentiment. After setting the NFL record for tight end receiving yards in a rookie debut week 1, TJ has totaled just 2 catches for 8 yards on 7 targets since. There is a chance for him to get back on track this week. The Lions haven’t trailed by more than 4 points all year. That’s likely to change this week. I’d expect Stafford to be north of 40 pass attempts for the first time since week 1, and that means at least a few more balls head TJ’s way. He was targeted in the red zone twice last Sunday and narrowly missed his 2^nd TD of the season. We’ve seen the floor is low here, but I think Hockenson gets back on track a bit this week with 50+ yards and a shot at a TD.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 4: @Den.): I told you to bench Minshew last week and it came back to bite me. The usually run-heavy Jaguars have shown a willingness to let the kid throw the ball, even in neutral and positive game scripts. The Jaguars threw on 60% of their offensive plays on Thursday despite never trailing and have the 10^th-highest % of pass plays in the league so far. Minshew finished week 3 with just 204 yards but found the end zone twice and should have found it a 3^rd time if not for a Dede Westbrook drop. Week 4 brings his toughest challenge yet. Denver has allowed about 205 passing yards per game and just 2 TDs total in 3 games. I think Minshew will be hard-pressed to match what he did last week when he finished as the QB16. I’d keep him sidelined this week. If he comes up with another solid day it may be time to start viewing him as an every-week QB2 option.

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 4: vs. NE): It seems as though Singletary will be a long shot to play this week, but if he is able to get back out there he gets to face a defense that has allowed just 100 TOTAL rushing yards to opposing running backs through 3 weeks and hasn’t allowed an offensive TD all year. If you want to roll the dice that Singletary is the guy to break through against them be my guest, but I’d wait a week to get him back in any lineups even if he does play in this one.

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 4: @Chi.): Mattison’s fantasy production has been entirely game script dependent through 3 weeks. In the Vikings’ 2 blowout wins he’s posted 21 carries for 107 yards and a touchdown. In their one loss he saw just 4 carries for 25 yards. This week the Bears are 2-point home favorites against the Vikings, rank 3^rd in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 4^th-fewest RB fantasy points. Mattison seems unlikely to get extended opportunity in this game and unlikely to cash in on it even if he does.

RB Darwin Thompson, KC (Wk. 4: @Det.): Thompson has seen a total of just 11 snaps in the first 3 weeks. With Damien Williams out last Sunday, it was Darrel Williams who stepped in and made an impact, not Darwin. Williams didn’t play at all in the first 2 weeks but was on the field for 37 snaps against the Ravens. LeSean McCoy did re-aggravate his injury in the game, so there is an outside chance that Thompson sees some additional work this week if both Damien and Shady are out, but I’m not confident enough in that to put him in lineups or pay up the $4,300 he costs on DraftKings to take a flyer in DFS tournaments and find out.

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 4: @NO): Pollard finally got the chance this week to show people why he was a coveted player when it looked like Zeke may hold out back in the preseason. The Dolphins are of course a punchline this season, but Pollard’s 21.8 PPR points and RB7 finish for the week count just the same. He even outscored Zeke. He’s unlikely for a repeat performance with an actual competitive team on the schedule this week. The Cowboys are road favorites, but by just 2.5 points in The Big Easy. Pollard played just 17 snaps in week 2 against Washington, a contest that should look more like what we’ll see for the RB split in most weeks. He’s still a priority handcuff for Zeke, but he won’t have much standalone value outside of blowouts.

RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 4: vs. Cle.): Hill has seen his playing time decrease each week. He was on the field for just 11 snaps in week 3, and although he saw a season-high 3 passing targets he didn’t turn any of them into catches. It looks like this backfield is going to be mostly Mark Ingram in competitive games with some Gus Edwards mixed in. Until Hill starts getting more work in the rotation, he’s best left on the waiver wire in most redraft leagues.

RB Darrell Henderson, LAR (Wk. 4: vs. TB): Darrell hasn’t played an offensive snap in the last 2 weeks. The time has probably come (and passed) to drop him in redraft leagues. I do think the Rams will eventually get him more involved, but at this point there is no reason to waste a roster spot waiting around for it outside of deep leagues.

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 4: vs. Cin.): Diontae did find the end zone last week, but the Steelers have the look of a much lower volume passing attack this year with Mason Rudolph under center. Rudolph has thrown the ball just 46 times for 286 yards in a game and a half at the helm. Johnson was the target of 9 of those passes, so he’s likely to be involved but Cincinnati is much easier to attack on the ground than through the air. I’d look for the Steelers to lean on James Conner on Monday. The Bengals have allowed the 2^nd-most RB points per game and 5.24 yards per carry. There just won’t be enough passing volume to rely on Diontae this week.

WR KeeSean Johnson, ARI (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.): Johnson should see his snap share go back up a bit this week after the Cardinals cut Michael Crabtree, but he hasn’t been doing enough with the targets he’s been getting to be relied on for fantasy as the Cards’ WR4. He’s turned 16 targets into just 8 catches for 90 yards on the year. The offense continues to run through Kirk and Fitzgerald, and Johnson and Byrd will fight for the scraps.

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 4: @Atl.): Given the limited opportunity that the Titans’ passing attack gives its receivers on a weekly basis (they rank 29^th in the league in pass attempts and just 55% of the targets have gone to WRs), Brown will need a couple splash plays like he had in week 1 to return value. Only the New England Patriots have allowed fewer 20+ yard passing completions than the Falcons have this year. The Falcons are content to let teams throw underneath and dink & dunk their way down the field. That doesn’t bode well for Brown’s outlook this week.

WR Hunter Renfrow, OAK (Wk. 4: @Ind.): Renfrow should find his way to a bit more playing time going forward with Ryan Grant cut this week, but Renfrow has yet to top 30 yards in a game this season and gets to face off with a Colts’ defense that has allowed the 7^th-fewest WR points thus far. With Darren Waller hogging 30% of the targets and the team talking about Josh Jacobs getting more as well, it’s hard to see Hunter getting a big share this week.

WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 4: @GB): Alshon Jeffery is off the injury report this week and is going to play on Thursday night. After Mack Hollins and Nelson Agholor each played 99% of the offensive snaps in week 3, JJ appears to be the odd man out. At best he would likely be splitting snaps as the team WR3 with Mack Hollins, and the Packers have allowed the 3^rd-fewest WR points in the league so far. Keep Arcega-Whiteside sidelined this week.

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 4: vs. Jax.): The Jaguars have struggled to contain heavily targeted TE1 types so far this year, but they’ve made them work for their production. They allowed lines of 3-88 on 8 targets to Travis Kelce and 7-64 on 9 targets to Delanie Walker, but Noah Fant isn’t that type of tight end (at least not yet) and the Jags haven’t allowed a TD to the position yet. Fant has played less than 70% of the offensive snaps each of the past 2 weeks and has averaged 4 targets per game for the year. He’ll need a lot more work than that to have productive day against the Jaguars.

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 4: vs. NE): Knox seems to have emerged as the Bills de facto starting tight end for as long as Tyler Kroft is out. He’s led the unit in snaps each week and tallied 4 targets in each of the last 2. He posted his best game of the season last weekend with a 3-67-1 line. Unfortunately, he faces the Patriots this week. New England has allowed just 6 catches to opposing tight ends all year and zero total offensive touchdowns. Knox would be a desperation dart throw this week.

Rookie on a bye this week: WR Deebo Samuel, SF

Deep-League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 4: @NYG): As of Wednesday, Case Keenum isn’t practicing and is in a walking boot. The expectation is that Keenum will play this week, but if that changes between now and kickoff Sunday Haskins would be an interesting play in a GPP DFS tournament or as a sneaky QB2. The Giants have been demolished through the air. They’ve allowed the most passing yards in the league (332 yards/game), rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA, and have coughed up an 8:1 TD:INT ratio. Haskins may be risky since we haven’t seen him in a game yet, but he should have an immediate comfort level with college teammate Terry McLaurin as his WR1. This would be the softest landing possible for Haskins’ NFL debut if he gets the chance to make it this week.

RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 4: vs. KC):  Ty Johnson didn’t see an uptick in usage in week 3 despite CJ Anderson being cut during the week, but the Lions only trailed for a few minutes in that game. This week will almost certainly be different. They get to face Patrick Mahomes playing what is somehow his first game indoors as a college or pro QB. The Lions will need to score to keep pace, and I expect Ty to be at least a little more involved than he was a week ago. The Chiefs have allowed the 10^th-most RB points per game so far, which is a far cry from last week’s opponent, the Eagles, who have allowed the 5^th-fewest. I’m not advocating Johnson as anything more than a dart throw in DFS tournaments. This is still Kerryon’s backfield, but Ty costs the minimum in DraftKings. He may get enough opportunity to post a surprising day.

WR Preston Williams, MIA (Wk. 4: vs. LAC): The Dolphins are a massive underdog yet again this week which will undoubtedly keep them throwing, and Josh Rosen has actually been better than the numbers would indicate. Williams leads the team in targets, catches and receiving yards through 3 games and the Chargers’ secondary hasn’t been a shut down unit thus far. They’ve allowed the 14^th-most WR points per game and rank 28^th in pass defense DVOA. Look for Williams to be peppered with targets. He’ll likely be a bargain in all DFS formats and a decent deep league WR3 option.

WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 4: vs. Oak.): TY Hilton re-aggravated a quad injury in the first half last week and sat out the remainder of the game. He looks questionable to play this week at best. If he were to miss this game, Campbell will be the biggest beneficiary. He played a season-high 46% of the offensive snaps last week and was the only WR who saw a significant increase due to the injury. With a full week of practice as the starting slot WR, he’ll have a great chance to make an impact against a defense that has allowed the 5^th-most WR fantasy points. Brissett’s conservative passing game should be a great match with Campbell. The Colts’ QB averages just 5.6 air yards per attempt, and Campbell thrives on turning short catches into bigger gains. Campbell’s average target depth at OSU was just 6.58 yards, but he averaged 12.4 yards per catch. He could end the week as a WR4 and is an interesting option in deeper PPR leagues.

WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 4: vs. Was.): With Golden Tate due to return for game 5, this could be Slayton’s last chance to shine for a while. He saw his first snaps of the year in week 3 and made the 2^nd-string QB-to-WR narrative look accurate for at least one night, as he hauled in 3 catches for 82 yards on 5 targets from Daniel Jones. I’d expect that performance has earned him some extra opportunity this week, and he’ll face off with a defense that has coughed up 588 yards and 8 scores to opposing WRs through 3 games. He’s a cheap flyer for DFS tournaments this week at just $3,200 on DraftKings.

WR Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 4: @Buf.): Meyers gets mentioned this week due to the injury to Julian Edelman. It doesn’t sound like New England is too worried about it, but if Edelman isn’t able to play it should make Meyers a near full-time player Sunday. He played mostly in the slot in college so it would be a natural fit for him. The Bills boast a fearsome secondary, but their best corner, Tre’Davious White, will mostly be tangling with Josh Gordon. I’d look at Meyers as a dart throw in DFS tournaments if Edelman is out.

TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN (Wk. 4: @Chi.): Smith is mostly listed here as a guy to stash in deep leagues where you may have to start 2 TEs or have a bunch of flex spots and TE-premium scoring. Kyle Rudolph is still a full-time player, but Smith has been on the field for just under 50% of the offensive snaps and has been targeted almost as often as Rudolph. There isn’t a ton of volume in this passing attack, but there will be weeks where they’ll have to throw more. It’s not out of the question that Smith becomes more of a receiving TE while Rudolph is used primarily as a blocker. At the very least it’s a situation to monitor.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury updates throughout the week. There are plenty of questionable players to monitor and make sure you aren’t playing an inactive player or a backup where the starter ends up active. If you want to yell at me about anything written above or have any specific questions, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully your team is off to a rip-roaring start to the season. I know plenty of rookies are. Hollywood Brown, Terry McLaurin and DK Metcalf turned one good game into 2, and Devin Singletary and Josh Jacobs were on their way there before suffering injuries. TJ Hockenson and AJ Brown took a step backwards in week 2, but Deebo Samuel and David Montgomery got going on Sunday. There will be even more rookies getting the chance to contribute in week 3 with injuries clearing the way for increased playing time for a few guys. We’re also going to see the changing of the guard in New York with Daniel Jones taking over for Eli much earlier in the season than expected. Which rookies should make it into your lineup? Let’s dive in and take a look…

Rookies to Start:

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 3: @Was.): Montgomery saw a spike in usage week 2 as Tarik Cohen and Mike Davis both saw their playing time drop considerably. It’s still a committee, but Monty handled 18 carries and saw 3 targets, and more importantly handled all 5 carries inside the 5-yard line and scored his first touchdown. Washington has allowed nearly 250 rushing yards to opposing RBs through 2 weeks at a clip of 4.7 yards per carry. With the Bears favored to win this game, look for Montgomery to be very involved again and should be a solid RB2. The biggest concern here would be that Washington may stack the box a bit. They probably won’t have to respect Trubisky’s arm as much as they did with Wentz and Dak.

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 3: @KC): Week 2 made it clear that Hollywood’s limited snaps in week 1 were due to the score getting out of hand early. He played 65% of the snaps and was targeted 13(!) times in a much more competitive week 2 contest. He and Mark Andrews are clearly the top targets in the passing game and the Ravens are a touchdown underdog this week against the Chiefs. They should be throwing at least a little more than usual and Kansas City doesn’t have a great pass defense. They’ve allowed over 260 yards per game through 2 weeks. Brown is a reasonable WR2 option in week 3.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 3: vs. Car.): We’ve seen Murray throw the ball 54 times in an overtime game where the Cards mostly played from behind, and then 40 times in a game that had a mostly neutral (maybe slightly negative) game script. The volume is going to be there every week, and at some point he’s going to make plays with his legs. The Carolina defense is no pushover this week, and Arizona might actually be playing from ahead if Kyle Allen gets the start at QB for Carolina, but I would still bet on Murray to throw for another 300 yards.

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 3: @Min): Keep an eye on the injury report with Jacobs. He left last week’s game briefly with a groin issue but did return so he should be good to go this week. The bigger concern for Jacobs might be his lack of usage in the passing game. Jacobs has been targeted just once in two weeks, and the Raiders are an 8-point underdog against the Vikings. Gruden is still likely to force feed him the ball as long as the game is close, and as usual that volume will have him in play for a RB2 spot. He’s quickly proving to be a better play in non-PPR leagues than PPR formats. Minnesota did let Aaron Jones run for 116 yards and a TD last Sunday.

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 3: vs. Cin.): Like Jacobs, you really need to follow the injury report with Singletary. He left last week’s game with a hamstring injury and wasn’t practicing yet this week as of Thursday. The match-up this week is a good one. Cincy has been shredded to the tune of 331 yards and 3 TDs on the ground in the first 2 weeks and Singletary has posted 127 yards on just 10 carries. If it sounds like he is going to be a full go, Singletary should be in your lineup. If he’s out, it’ll be a committee between Frank Gore on early downs and TJ Yeldon as the 3^rd-down back.

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 3: vs. Det.): I’d actually lean towards sitting Sanders this week, but there is upside against a Lions team that hasn’t defended the run well. Sanders has led the Eagles’ backfield in snaps and carries, but he isn’t seeing a ton of targets and hasn’t been very efficient with his opportunities. He’s shown a tendency to try and break the big play, committing to bounce the ball outside and not seeing cutback lanes to take what the blocking is giving him. Through 2 games 11 of Sanders’ 21 carries have gone for 2 yards or less. The Lions have coughed up 249 rushing yards and 5.2 yards per carry in the first 2 weeks so there is some hope, but I would look for better options if you have them.

WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 3: vs. Chi.): McLaurin has gotten off to a hot fantasy start to his rookie campaign and the underlying numbers behind that start have been fantastic. He’s played 91% of the offensive snaps, is getting 20% of the pass game targets, and his average target depth is 18 yards. He’s here to stay kids. The one thing holding me back from making him a clear start this week is the Bears’ defense. They’ve allowed the 7^th-fewest WR points so far (9^th-fewest in PPR) and may be the best overall defense in the league. I’d still lean toward playing Terry this week if you have him. Just know that this is probably the toughest matchup he’s faced so far. One positive for McLaurin this week is Chuck Pagano’s scheme that is typically heavy on blitzing which can make them susceptible to the big play. The Bears have already allowed 4 pass plays of 24+ yards in the first two weeks.

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 3: vs. NO): Metcalf has clearly cemented himself as the number 2 receiver in Seattle behind Tyler Lockett, and he’s posted 2 quality performances thus far. He is going to be a huge problem for any defense that double-teams Lockett. The Seahawks’ run-heavy scheme lowers Metcalf’s weekly floor and with Drew Brees sidelined this could be a positive game script, but the Saints did allow the most WR fantasy points last year and the 6th-most in the league through the first 2 weeks. I like Metcalf to top 60 yards again and have a reasonable shot at finding pay-dirt.

WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 3: vs. Bal.): Mecole showed off the wheels that made people think he’d be an ideal Tyreek Hill replacement last weekend. He posted 4-61-1 on 7 targets and had a TD longer than 70 yards that was called back on a holding penalty. Every offensive player in this passing game has a chance to go off any given week, and Mecole’s game-breaking ability means they are going to scheme the ball to him with the opportunity to make plays. Hardman played more than half of his snaps in the slot, which means he’ll tangle mostly with 33-year old Brandon Carr rather than Marlon Humphrey. I like his chances of winning that match-up. Mecole is in the WR3/flex discussion and has a ton of upside this week.

TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 3: @Phi.): Hockenson’s dazzling debut did not turn into a repeat performance in week 2, but his playing time was similar. The Lions aren’t going to be a high-volume passing attack when they can help it, and that is going to make Hock a volatile option weekly. He’s certainly in play this week if you’re searching for a replacement for Njoku, are afraid of trusting OJ Howard again, or just don’t have a legit TE1, but there is a boom-or-bust element here. The Eagles aren’t a great TE match-up. They struggled a little with Vernon Davis and Austin Hooper in the first two weeks but allowed the 4^th fewest TE points per game last season. If you have safer options than Hock I’d use them.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 3: @TB): The Giants may get Sterling Shepard back this week, but the receiver group overall is still pretty bad and Todd Bowles’ Tampa defense hasn’t made life easy on opposing QBs so far. They’ve allowed the 7^th lowest passer rating in the league to opposing QBs through 2 games and coughed up just 1 passing touchdowns. Jones has the rushing ability to salvage a QB2 day even if he doesn’t throw it well, but I’d like to see him succeed against a first-string defense before throwing him out there in lineups, even 2QB ones.

QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 3: vs. Ten.): The Jaguars called a surprisingly pass-heavy game plan in week 2 in a game that was pretty close throughout, but the Jaguars have played at the slowest pace in the NFL through 2 weeks. That caps Minshew’s weekly ceiling, especially facing off with a Titans team that also likes to play at a deliberate pace. The Jaguars implied total is less than 20 points. Minshew’s rushing output was a nice bonus this week, but it’s not something he has a history of doing. He totaled just 119 rushing yards in 13 games at WSU last year. If forced to choose between Jones and Minshew this week, I’d go with Jones.

RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 3: @KC): Mark Ingram had a bit of an injury scare last Sunday but was able to return to action and should be fine for this week’s showdown with Kansas City. I believe Hill will eventually work his way into a bigger role, but I need to at least see him operating in front of Gus Edwards or being utilized more in the passing game before I consider using him in lineups.

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 3: vs. Oak.): Mattison has played on just 20% of the Vikings offensive snaps and handled just 13 carries through 2 weeks. There is a chance at some additional opportunities for him this week with the Vikes favored by just over a touchdown, but the Raiders have done a good job of stuffing the run so far allowing just 63 rush yards per game on 2.8 yards per carry. He’s not a great option even if he gets a few extra carries.

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 3: @Jax.): Brown seems like an interesting option with Jalen Ramsey likely to follow Corey Davis around in what should be Ramsey’s final game as a Jaguar, but the Jaguars play an inordinate amount of zone coverage and negate the effect of a lock-down shadow corner. It’s probably a big part of why Ramsey wants out of Jacksonville. I like Brown’s game, but the Titans just don’t throw enough to support their wide receivers as weekly options right now. None of their pass catchers outside of Delanie Walker are more than a dart throw this week.

WR Miles Boykin, BAL (Wk. 3: @KC): The Ravens may be throwing more than usual in a game where they are a touchdown underdog and facing a less than stellar secondary, but the targets just haven’t been there for Boykin. I’d rather he have a breakout game from my bench or the waiver wire than post another 1-catch game in the lineup.

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 3: @SF): Johnson has been at least somewhat involved through the first two weeks, and there’s always the narrative that the second string WR and second-string QB will have an instant connection. That seemed to hold true last Sunday with Johnson being the target on 3 of Mason Rudolph’s 19 attempts last week, but I wouldn’t want to bet on him having a big game this week. There are too many receivers ahead of him in the pecking order and I’d expect the Steelers to try to run a bit more to take pressure off Rudolph in his first start.

WR KeeSean Johnson, ARI (Wk. 3: vs. Car.): Unfortunately for Johnson, newly activated Michael Crabtree’s snaps did come at his expense rather than Damiere Byrd’s. Byrd, Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk are all pretty much every-down players, but Johnson and Crabtree are basically splitting the 4^th WR role for now. I’d be fine with dropping Johnson in most formats at this point.

WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 3: vs. Atl.): Campbell scored his first touchdown last week but has now played just 18 snaps in each of the first 2 contests and continues to run behind Chester Rogers in the slot. I expect that his playing time will increase as the season goes along but he isn’t playing enough right now to be trusted in your weekly lineups.

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 3: @GB): Fant continues to play significantly more snaps that Jeff Heuerman, but Huerman is on the field just enough to keep Fant from being a borderline TE1. I assure you the Broncos don’t want to throw the ball 40 times a game like they have in the past 2 weeks, but I don’t know that they’ll be able to avoid it this week at Lambeau. With that said, 4 targets just isn’t going to cut it for Fant against a defense that has allowed just 5 catches for 14 yards to opposing tight ends through 2 weeks.

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 3: vs. Cin.): Knox has been operating as the lead guy in the Bills TE committee, but he hasn’t seen a ton of targets and the Bengals have allowed a total of 6 catches and 82 yards to opposing tight ends through 2 games. If you’re searching for a fill-in tight end due to injury this week, Knox isn’t a great place to look.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes & Cheap DFS Options:

RB Darwin Thompson, KC (Wk. 3: vs. Bal.): Thompson is likely to be thrust into action this week with both LeSean McCoy and Damien Williams ailing. McCoy has returned to limited practice, but Williams still isn’t practicing as of Thursday and Thompson would be the first guy in line to fill his receiving role. Williams has 22 carries and 11 targets through 2 games. If Thompson sees close to the same workload he’ll be a great cheap option in DFS tournaments (costs the minimum in DraftKings) and a great desperation flex in deeper leagues. Double-digit points or close to it in PPR formats should be the expectation for Darwin if Williams sits.

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 3: vs. Mia.): The Miami Dolphins have lost by a combined 92 points through 2 games and are a whopping 3-touchdown underdog against the Cowboys this week. With Dallas’s new souped up offense under Kellen Moore this one could get ugly in a hurry. There won’t be much reason to risk Zeke’s health into the 2^nd half which should mean a lot of Tony Pollard. If you need an insurance policy for Damien Williams or Devin Singletary or Josh Jacobs in deep leagues, Pollard is a guy to keep in mind. He’s likely going to get extended run in this one.

RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 3: @Phi.): I mention Johnson mostly as a stash for this week. I wouldn’t trust running him out there in lineups this week, but with the release of CJ Anderson Ty seems poised to step into a bigger role in the offense. The Lions have been hesitant to turn Kerryon into a full-on workhorse – he hasn’t played 60% of the snaps in either game this year, so Johnson is a guy that you should be adding in most formats in case he makes the most of his increased opportunity.

WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 3: vs. Det.): DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery are both going to be out in week 3 (and probably week 4 as well), and JJAW become nearly a full-time player in their absence last Sunday. Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz are likely to lead the way in targets this week for Philly, but no one is a better bet to find the end zone than JJ. Darius Slay has been deployed in the slot on occasion before and I would expect him to spend some time covering Agholor, which should mean good things for Arcega-Whiteside. He and teammate Mack Hollins are both worth considering if you’re hurting for a wide receiver in a deep league or looking for a cheap DFS tournament play.

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 3: vs. Pit.): It’s hard to put too much confidence in Deebo with the way the 49ers have shuffled their receivers in and out of the lineup. No receiver played more than 51% of the snaps last week. Some of that can be attributed to the blowout score, but Samuel played 88% of the snaps in week one and just 40% in week 2 yet was still on the field and getting touches in the 4^th quarter with a 31-point lead. While sorting out the passing game pecking order after Kittle seems messy, I do think that Deebo is one of the guys that the 49ers will get into the game plan every week. He is a difference maker with the ball in his hands and Kyle Shanahan has found ways to use him running the ball and catching it. The Steelers are notorious for not adjusting their alignment to match up effectively in the slot, and I think we’re going to see Samuel move around quite a bit to take advantage of that. I’d only be considering Deebo in deeper leagues, but the upside is there for a WR3 day again.

WR Preston Williams, MIA (Wk. 3: @Dal.): The Dolphins are pretty much guaranteed to be in a negative game script and throwing again as a 3-touchdown underdog this week. Williams saw his playing time jump up in week 2, and he had a nice rapport with Josh Rosen in preseason. With Rosen taking over as the starter this week, there is some decent upside in the sheer amount of garbage time there should be. Williams is a reasonable option in really deep leagues if you’re struggling to find a flex.

WR Hunter Renfrow, OAK (Wk. 3: @Min.): Tyrell Williams is fighting through a hip pointer this week and will draw the shadow coverage of one of the best shutdown corners in the game in Xavier Rhodes. Renfrow played 75% of the snaps last week in a negative game script and was targeted 8 times. The Vikings are 8-point favorites in this game so the situation should be similar. I’d expect Renfrow to see about 8 targets again and is a decent option in really deep PPR formats.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you make some of your tough lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury updates throughout the week. There are plenty of questionable players to monitor and make sure you aren’t playing an inactive player. If you want to yell at me about anything written above or have any specific questions, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 1 was a surprising one from the rookie crop, especially for the pass catchers. Terry McLaurin, Hollywood Brown, and AJ Brown all cleared 100 receiving yards. DK Metcalf finished with 89 yards. Miles Boykin and Preston Williams each found the end zone, and KeeSean Johnson was targeted 10(!) times. TJ Hockenson set an NFL rookie record for a tight end debut with 131 receiving yards. Among the running backs Josh Jacobs lived up to his workhorse hype, but David Montgomery and Miles Sanders were week 1 disappointments. Perhaps the most anticipated rookie storyline, the Kyler Murray revolution, got off to a slow start on Sunday but finished with a flourish. There’s a lot to unpack as we look to week 2. Despite all the breakout week one games there is only one rookie that I would say to start with confidence this week. You don’t want to overreact to a small sample size. There are however a few that are really close to that level. Let’s dive in and take a look at who they are…

Rookies to Start:

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 2: vs. KC): One thing was clear in Oakland’s impressive season opener – the backfield belongs to Josh Jacobs. He played 73% of the offensive snaps, handled 82% of the team’s rushing attempts, and got the only two carries inside the 5-yard line (both of which he converted into TDs). This week he’ll square off with a Kansas City defense that allowed the Jaguars to run for more than 5 yards per carry. The only concern with Jacobs is that his snaps could dip a little if the Raiders play from behind, which is likely against the Chiefs. Jalen Richard ran almost as many pass routes in 16% of the offensive snaps as Jacobs did in 73%, but this offense is built around Jacobs. He’ll still get plenty of work and is a weekly RB2 going forward.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 2: @Bal.): For 3 quarters last Sunday. Kyler and head coach Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid system looked like a huge flop, and then suddenly it didn’t. Murray put on a show in the 4^th quarter and overtime leading the Cards back from 18 down to tie the Lions and topping 300 yards in the process. He should get a ton of passing volume each week, and with the Ravens favored by nearly 2 TDs that’s certain to be the case in week 2. Game script likely played a role in this, but the Cardinals played at the fastest pace of any team in the league and nearly three quarters of their offensive play calls were passes. Vegas projects the game script to be similar this week. That volume alone should make Murray a solid QB2 this week, and his rushing upside gives him a chance at more.

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 2: @NYG): Singletary looks like my biggest preseason whiff so far. His athletic profile was beyond underwhelming, but he’s already showing he can be a dynamic receiver and somehow managed 70 rushing yards on just 4 carries without a run longer than 23 yards (runs of 23, 20, 15 and 12). Frank Gore had 11 carries to Singletary’s 4, but it was Singletary who played 70% of the offensive snaps. TJ Yeldon was nowhere to be seen. A more neutral game script might result in more snaps for Gore, but Singletary is the back you want in this offense. He gets a decent matchup this week against the Giants. There are still risks here. He only handled 9 touches in the opener, and we have no idea if he’ll handle any goal line work, but I like him ahead of Montgomery and Sanders this week in PPR leagues because his receiving role feels safe.

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 2: @Den.): Monty’s usage was a huge disappointment in week 1. He was in on just 28 offensive snaps and touched the ball just 7 times while playing behind Mike Davis for much of the night. It’s probably not a coincidence that the Bears’ offense was a mess. Head coach Matt Nagy said afterward it will be important for them to get Montgomery more involved going forward, and I expect him to stick to his word on that. Denver allowed 113 scrimmage yards and 2 scores to Josh Jacobs last week, and while a lot of that was due to Oakland hammering the run, I think Montgomery has nice upside if he gets up into the 12-15 touch range. I think he gets there. He’s still more of a risky flex play than anything, but I would expect a better showing from him in week 2.

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 2: @Atl.): The matchup for Sanders looks enticing on paper. The Falcons were eviscerated by Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison to the tune of 160 yards and 2 scores on 5.3 yards per carry, but I’m not sure Sanders has the workload to turn this into a big week. While he led the Eagles in snaps and touches last week, he’s clearly part of a 3-headed committee. There were a couple flashes of his talent last week on a 19-yard run and then a 21-yard TD that was called back on a(n erroneous) penalty, but outside of those two runs he totaled just 8 scrimmage yards on 10 carries and 2 targets. That’s not the kind of efficiency you hope for. It’s still a promising spot for Sanders, but he’s not more than a flex option right now.

WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 2: vs. Dal.): McLaurin is my favorite rookie WR play for this week, but he’s still not quite an auto-start. He was basically a full-time player – on the field for 93% of the team’s offensive snaps, but nearly 60% of his PPR points for the day came on one deep ball. It was still a positive sign to see Washington’s offense be willing to push the ball down the field, something they rarely did last year. Case Keenum had two completions of 40 yards or more and nearly had a third on a deep overthrow intended for an open McLaurin. Washington had just 6 completions of 40+ yards all of last season. McLaurin has solid upside this week against a Dallas defense that allowed Eli Manning to post a 95.5 passer rating and over 300 yards, but there is some baked in risk for a deep threat receiver with a 1-game track record. I think McLaurin is a borderline WR3 this week and should be a bargain in DFS slates with just a $3,800 price tag on DraftKings.

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 2: @Pit.): Metcalf had an impressive debut posting a 4-89 line on 6 targets, and on paper he seems set up for another solid week. Tyler Lockett is battling a back injury that could keep him out of this one and the Seahawks are a 4-point underdog. He should draw Joe Haden in coverage. Haden was solid in 2018 but struggled in the opener as did much of the Steeler defense. The one thing that keeps me from confidently saying you should start Metcalf this week is the Seahawks’ play calling. They threw the ball just 20 times in the opener in a game where the margin was never more than 4 points, and Tyler Lockett was double-covered for much of the game which may have led to more targets for Metcalf. If Lockett plays in this one, I think he gets significantly more than 2 targets, and those targets have to come from somewhere. If Lockett sits, I think I’d feel pretty comfortable rolling Metcalf out as my WR3 in most formats.

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 2: vs. Ari.): While it’s clear Baltimore wants to take some deep shots to Hollywood each week, he played just 14 snaps Sunday. The 4-147-2 stat line was fun, but he’s going to be a volatile weekly option. Brown does get a good matchup against a depleted Cardinals secondary this week that’s missing CBs Patrick Peterson and Robert Alford, so it’s not a bad roll of the dice to take a shot on another big game. The Lions connected on 7 pass plays of 20+ yards against these Cardinals last Sunday. Just know Hollywood comes with a very low floor.

TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 2: vs. LAC): I’m really tempted to tell you that you should be starting Hockenson this week, but I’m not quite ready to make that leap after one game. He’s clearly going to be one of the rare tight ends that produces as a rookie and will be a big part of the Lions’ game plan, but the team’s passing volume will be inconsistent and there are several other mouths to feed from that limited pie. Game script is projected to be close to neutral with the Chargers favored by 2.5 points. The Chargers ranked in the top half of the league last year at limiting tight ends and held the Colts trio of Doyle, Ebron and Mo-Alie Cox to just 3 catches for 31 yards. TJ is still just $3,000 in DraftKings and is a value there, but I wouldn’t play him over proven starters like Engram, OJ Howard, or Delanie Walker just yet.

Rookies to Sit:

RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 2: @Ari.): On paper this should be a good opportunity for Hill to get some extended run. The Ravens are a 13.5-point favorite, so the game script should be favorable for an already run-heavy team, but last Sunday was about as favorable a script as you’ll ever see and Hill got just 7 carries while Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards combined for 31. Bigger workloads will come for Hill eventually, but I’m not ready to count on him until I see him move ahead of Gus Edwards in the pecking order. He’s especially risky in PPR formats as Lamar Jackson didn’t have a single target to a running back in the opener.

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 2: @GB): Mattison looked good in the opener with 9 carries for 49 yards but he didn’t touch the ball until the Vikings were already up 2 touchdowns. In fact, 5 of his 9 carries came with the team up by more than 20 points. Minnesota is a 3-point underdog in Green Bay against the Packers, who limited the Bears running backs to just 3 yards per carry. I don’t like Mattison’s chances of duplicating his output from last Sunday.

RB Darrell Henderson, LAR (Wk. 2: vs. NO): Henderson finished week one with 1 carry and zero targets on just 2 offensive snaps. It’s a far cry from the workload most were projecting for him as Malcolm Brown ran as the clear number 2 back. I’d expect Henderson’s usage to increase as the year goes on, but there is obviously no way to trust him in week 2 against the Saints.

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 2: @Was.): Week 1 was a disappointing one for Tony Pollard. With Zeke expected to play limited snaps it was going to be his best opportunity to make an impression on the coaching staff and show that he should have a role moving forward. He finished the game with 13 carries for 24 yards (1.8 ypc) and zero targets in the passing game. It went about as poorly as it could have for him. He’s still likely the handcuff if anything happens to Elliott, but his case for standalone value took a big hit Sunday.

RB Darwin Thompson, KC (Wk. 2: @Oak.): Thompson’s first game confirmed our worst fears after the Shady McCoy trade. He’s going to have a hard time getting on the field early on this season. Thompson played just 2 snaps on Sunday. If your league has 12+ teams and you have the room on your roster, I’d still hold on to Thompson to see if his role grows over the next few weeks.

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 2: vs. Ind.): Brown finished as the leading receiver for the Titans last Sunday despite playing only 43% of the offensive snaps and seeing just 4 targets come his way. His production isn’t going to be sustainable if that usage continues. The Titans are going to be run-heavy when they can, and they enter this weekend as a 3-point favorite. I’d prefer Brown this week over any of the other wide receivers in the ‘Rookies to Sit’ section but chasing last week’s points feels like a bad idea here.

WR Preston Williams, MIA (Wk. 2: vs. NE): Williams played less than half of the offensive snaps last week (42%) and is on probably the worst team in the NFL. It was nice to see him score a TD Sunday and there will be a lot of garbage time passing for the Phins this year, but I’d still like to see his playing time increase a bit before using him in lineups.

WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 2: @Ten.): It looks as though Campbell is going to be eased into the Colts offense this year. He played just 18 offensive snaps (29% share) in the opener and was targeted just once. His snaps may get an uptick from the injury to Devin Funchess, but Funchess plays much more on the perimeter than in the slot so those snaps are more likely to go to 2^nd-year receiver Deon Cain. The Colts were run-heavy in week 1 despite trailing for most of the game. That doesn’t bode well for the fantasy outlook of a player with the limited snaps Campbell is seeing. It’ll take time for him to work his way into a bigger role.

WR Miles Boykin, BAL (Wk. 2: vs. Ari.): The matchup is a good one for Boykin, but his usage will likely prevent him from taking advantage of it. Boykin found the end zone against Miami, but he did it on his only target of the game. He played just 18 offensive snaps. It’s a low percentage bet to count on a productive game with such limited usage.

WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 2: @Atl.): JJ was out-snapped 10-5 by Mack Hollins in week one. That’s not enough run to be useful. He should be on the waiver wire in all but the deepest of redraft leagues for now.

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Chi.): Fant had a great opportunity to impress in week 1, and he didn’t really take advantage. He posted a 2-29 line despite running a receiving route on 83% of Joe Flacco’s dropbacks in a game the Broncos trailed in all night. The Bears are a much tougher defense than the Raiders unit he faced on Monday. Only five teams allowed fewer receiving yards to tight ends than the Bears last year, and somehow Fant has the same price tag in DraftKings as TJ Hockenson.

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 2: @NYG): Knox found himself on the field for 58% of the Bills’ offensive snaps with Tyler Kroft sidelined, but he was targeted just once. Kroft has an extensive injury history and isn’t guaranteed to be active in week 2. Knox is worth keeping an eye on in deeper dynasty leagues as the season progresses. He’s no more than a long shot TD dart throw this week though.

TE Foster Moreau, OAK (Wk. 2: vs. KC): Going into week one it appeared that Moreau’s road to fantasy relevance was road blocked by Darren Waller, but that didn’t stop him from finding his way onto the field for 55% of the Raiders’ offensive snaps and pulling in a couple catches. I have a feeling the snap count is an aberration caused by the Raiders playing with a positive game script all night. He’s a name to monitor in deep dynasty leagues, but he is in fact still road blocked by Waller for now.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 2: @Hou.): Minshew dazzled in his NFL debut despite physically looking like Uncle Rico’s football dreams come true. I doubt he continues to play quite as well as he did in week 1, but there are some positive signs. He was great in the face of pressure. He was pressured on about a third of his dropbacks, taking just one sack while throwing for 94 yards and 2 scores on those plays. Houston was shredded by Drew Brees in week one and managed to get just one sack in their first game after trading away Jadeveon Clowney. They may blitz a bit more this week to try and get more pressure, but Minshew has shown he can handle pressure. He should see decent passing volume again with the Jaguars a 9-point underdog, and that makes him a sneaky QB2 option this week.

WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 2: @Oak.): Hardman is an intriguing waiver wire pickup despite seeing just 1 target in the opener. He played 77% of the snaps in that opener thanks to the Tyreek Hill injury, and he should continue to be on the field a ton with Hill out for 4-6 weeks. Hardman is an explosive player in an explosive offense that faces off with the Raiders, Colts, Lions and Texans all within the next five weeks. He’s worth a flyer in most formats while Hill is on the shelf.

WR KeeSean Johnson, ARI (Wk. 2: @Bal.): Despite being drafted after both Andy Isabella and Hakeem Butler, it was Johnson who was on the field as nearly full-time player in week 1. The Cardinals truly did bring the Air Raid to the NFL, lining up with 4 wide receivers on about 75% of their snaps. Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald were locked into the two slot spots, and it was Johnson and Damiere Byrd on the outside. All 4 saw at least 7 targets, and Johnson saw 10. Michael Crabtree is expected to be active this week, so it’s likely he takes one of the outside spots, but I think it’s much more likely that it’s Byrd who is pushed to the bench than Johnson. Starting CB Jimmy Smith is out for Baltimore, and their other outside corner Marlon Humphrey will likely tangle with Crabtree. That makes KeeSean an interesting option in DFS tournaments or as a flex in deep leagues. He somehow has a lower price tag than Isabella on DraftKings ($3,100). There is some risk that Crabtree cuts into Johnson’s snaps rather than Byrd’s, but it’s a risk I can live with at his price tag.

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 2: @Cin.): Samuel played a whopping 88% of the 49ers’ offensive snaps in week 1. I’m not quite sure what is going on with Dante Pettis. Was he limited to 2 snaps due to a flare up of his groin injury? Is he just not a starter on this team? Who knows, but it was jarring to see him behind Kendrick Bourne and Richie James in snap count this week. Deebo’s role seems safe for week 2, and with Tevin Coleman on the shelf there may be an opportunity for him to take some of the dump off targets that would normally go to Coleman. The Bengals’ secondary was shredded to the tune of a 134.6 passer rating by Russell Wilson last Sunday, and I’d expect the 49ers to have more passing volume than the Seahawks did.  Samuel is in play as a flex in deeper PPR leagues.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and make sure to check before kickoffs to make sure there aren’t any surprise inactives. If you want to yell at me about anything written above or just have a general question, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Our long football-less national nightmare is finally over. Week one is upon us! By now you’ve hopefully you’ve made it through your draft and are relatively happy with the team you’ve put together, but now you get the fun of managing the lineup week-to-week. Week one is typically the epitome of the ‘start your studs’ mantra. We have limited information when it comes to schemes for new play callers, which teams have made defensive improvements, and who will get substantial playing time. The preseason can help us decipher some of these things, but teams do a pretty good job of playing coy in August and keeping things under wraps until the games start to count. Week one isn’t the time to get cute with your lineup decisions. With that in mind, there are only going to be a few rookies that I’d recommend playing in week one. Most of the rookies mentioned this week will be guys you should sit or are upside options in DFS lineups or guys you should be stashing on your bench.

In case you’re new here, each week I’ll break down the rookie crop’s matchups and place the relevant players into categories of ‘Rookies to Start’, ‘Borderline Rookies’, ‘Rookies to Sit’, and ‘Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options’. Make sure to read the details rather than just the headers though. Usually there is additional context that is important with understanding what to do with each player depending on your league’s format. Let’s dive into week 1…

Rookies to Start:

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 1: vs. GB): After trading away Jordan Howard in the offseason, the Bears traded up in the draft to take Montgomery in the 3^rd round with the hope that he would be their feature back. They signed Mike Davis as insurance, but all reports out of camp say Montgomery has been everything the Bears hoped he would be. Tarik Cohen will still factor in, but I expect Montgomery to be their starter out of the gate. The Packers revamped their defense a bit in the offseason, but losing Mike Daniels at DT is unlikely to be a positive change for a unit that ranked 23^rd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA last year and dead last in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs. Montgomery will be a bargain in DFS lineups in week 1 and should probably be in your starting lineup if you drafted him.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 1: @Det.): We’re only a few days away from finally seeing the Cardinals pull back the curtain on Kliff Kingsbury’s air raid offense. The Cardinals haven’t wowed anyone in the preseason, but they were intentionally vanilla in their play calling and didn’t want to tip their hand about the scheme. That’ll change Sunday and we’ll get to see if this is all hype or if the air raid will be the next evolution of NFL offenses. If things go well for the offense this week Murray has massive upside, but there is obvious risk as there is with any brand new offense. The matchup is a good one on paper. The Lions had one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL last year. They upgraded by bringing in Rashaan Melvin and Justin Coleman at corner, but they still lack quality coverage linebackers and should be vulnerable over the middle. One of the biggest aspects of Murray’s game, his rushing ability, might not be a huge factor in week 1. The Lions allowed the 2^nd-fewest rushing yards to opposing QBs last season, and 6 of their games were against QBs who finished in the top-9 in rushing yards at the position (Russ, Josh Allen, Dak, Cam Newton, and Trubisky x 2). While there are safer options out there, none of them will make you feel more alive than starting Murray. He could completely faceplant, or he could have a Cam Newton-esque debut. In his first NFL game, Newton posted 422 passing yards and 3 total TDs (2 passing, 1 rushing).

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 1: vs. Den.): The Broncos were a middling run defense a year ago (ranked 16^th in run defense DVOA) and didn’t do much from a personnel standpoint to address it, but new head coach Vic Fangio should get as much out of this unit as possible. Fangio’s defenses have ranked in the top-7 in rushing yards allowed in 5 of his last 8 seasons as a defensive coordinator, and in the top-10 in fewest rushing TDs allowed in 7 of 10 seasons. Jacobs will get a lot of volume, which puts him squarely in play as a RB2/flex option, but he isn’t an automatic start.

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 1: vs. Was.): The Eagles enter week 1 as a 10-point favorite over Washington which should bode well for Sanders, but there are reasons for caution. For starters, Sanders is unlikely to open the season as the bellcow back. Head coach Doug Pederson talked openly this week about using a committee – “For us here, it’s worked. And we’ll continue to [use a committee].” Jordan Howard is going to get a share of the work and may get the goal line carries, and Darren Sproles will mix in as well. Washington is also a better run defense than the overall numbers from last year would suggest. Before Alex Smith’s injury torpedoed their season, they were on pace to finish 4^th in the league in points allowed and 5^th in rushing yards allowed. It can’t be completely ignored that they did fall apart after Smith went down, but they have the personnel to be a formidable unit once again. Sanders has the upside to be a great option this week, but the floor is a little lower than you like to see this week.

Rookies to Sit:

RB Darrell Henderson, LAR (Wk. 1: @Car.): We really have no idea how much Henderson is going to play this week and his DFS price tag is a bit too rich for my blood with that much uncertainty, especially against a tough defense. The Panthers allowed the 5^th-fewest RB points per game last year and the 2^nd-fewest RB receiving yards. Todd Gurley isn’t going to see the same workload he did last year with his knee issues, but the Rams really like Malcolm Brown as well. I’d give this backfield a week two to play out to get a better idea of what the workload split will look like before trusting anyone other than Gurley.

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 1: @NYJ): Singletary has been a popular name in fantasy with LeSean McCoy being cut over the weekend, but don’t get carried away and plug him in right away. The Bills are going to ease Singletary into more of a featured role as the season goes on and he likely won’t be more than part of a timeshare early in the year. Frank Gore will probably lead the team in carries, and TJ Yeldon will have a role in the passing game as well. The matchup in week one isn’t a great one. The Jets allowed the 12^th-fewest RB points per game last year and added Quinnen Williams and CJ Mosley to the front seven in the offseason. They should be an improved unit. I’d steer clear of Singletary in week 1.

RB Darwin Thompson, KC (Wk. 1: @Jax.): On the other side of the LeSean McCoy news, Darwin Thompson’s outlook got markedly less sunny as the Chiefs signed Shady after Buffalo cut him. Both Thompson and projected starter Damien Williams will take a tumble in early season rankings as the workload split gets murkier. I’d keep Thompson benched until things get a little clearer, but I wouldn’t cut him outside of the shallowest leagues. This backfield reminds me a bit of the Saints in 2017 when they brought in Adrian Peterson and drafted Alvin Kamara. They had a projected starter in his prime in Mark Ingram, and it took 4 weeks for Ingram and Kamara to force Peterson out of the rotation. It’s not crazy to think Darwin and Damien could do the same with McCoy here. McCoy may have some juice left, but it hasn’t really shown itself the past couple years in Buffalo. This is a backfield to monitor closely early in the season.

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 1: vs. Atl.): Latavius Murray averaged about 6 and a half carries per game last season in the games that Dalvin Cook was healthy. This should be Cook’s backfield so long as he can keep himself on the field. The Vikings are a 4 and a half point favorite this week so the game script should be positive, but I don’t think there will be enough upside to make Mattison worth a play. Keep on eye on if he gets goal line work though. There’s value in being a touchdown vulture.

WR Preston Williams, MIA (Wk. 1: vs. Bal.): The Dolphins are a touchdown underdog in this matchup so they should be throwing a bit and Ryan Fitzpatrick is always willing to let it fly, but it’s still unclear how the wide receiver depth chart will look in week one. Even if Williams logs a lot of snaps, the Ravens outside corners are fantastic and it’ll be an uphill battle to be useful in this one for Preston.

WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 1: vs. Was.): If DeSean Jackson is unable to play this week due to his finger injury, JJ would be an intriguing TD dart throw. Unfortunately for him, it sounds like Jackson is going to play. The Eagles have an implied total of 28 points in this one so there is plenty to go around if Arcega-Whiteside does wind up with an expanded role, so watch the injury report on D-Jax.

WRs KeeSean Johnson & Andy Isabella, ARI (Wk. 1: vs. Det.): Both players got a notable downgrade in their week 1 outlook when the Cardinals released their depth chart with Michael Crabtree listed as a starter in 3-WR sets. The Cardinals have the offense that we know the least about at this point. They may play a bunch of 4-WR sets like Kingsbury did as a college coach, and they will probably rotate a bunch of receivers into the game. Isabella and Johnson are both likely to log some snaps. One thing we do know about Arizona is that Larry Fitzgerald will be playing in the slot, and the Lions are most vulnerable over the middle. Johnson and Isabella are both no more than dart throws in DFS tournaments in week 1.

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 1: @Cle.): Brown missed time in camp with a leg injury, and there are just too many questions about what his usage will look like to trust him in any formats this week. The Titans’ offense isn’t expected to be a volume passing attack, and he’s still got to carve out place in the pecking order with established vets Corey Davis, Adam Humphries and Delanie Walker ahead of him right now.

WRs Marquise Brown & Miles Boykin, BAL (Wk. 1: @Mia.): The Ravens are a 6.5-point favorite this week so the passing volume will probably be limited. Hollywood Brown is still working on getting back up to game speed in his recovery from offseason Lisfranc surgery. He’ll play in week one, but he probably won’t have his usual explosiveness early in the season. Boykin could have some sneaky upside in DFS tournaments as a minimum-priced option, but he will probably be squaring off against the best part of the Dolphins’ defense, Xavien Howard. Both guys are best left out of your lineups in week 1.

WRs Terry McLaurin & Kelvin Harmon, WAS (Wk. 1: @Phi.): It’s hard to buy into anyone in the Washington passing attack in week one, but the ball will have to go somewhere if Jordan Reed is unable to play due to a concussion. My best guess of where the ball will go is to Trey Quinn, Vernon Davis, and Chris Thompson. McLaurin looks to have won a starting job on the outside to open the season, so he’s the better option of the two rookies this week, but I’d avoid both. Washington will try to establish the running game and keep the Philly offense off the field as much as they can.

WR Hunter Renfrow, OAK (Wk. 1: vs. Den.): There will be weeks when Renfrow is a sneaky PPR flex option, but week one against all-world slot corner Chris Harris Jr. isn’t one of them. There’s no reason to try him out this week even with the news that Antonio Brown is being suspended.

TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 1: @Ari.): I’d expect Hockenson to be splitting snaps with Jesse James in week one, and the Lions will likely want to go run-heavy to slow down the game and keep Arizona’s high-octane offense sidelined. With Patrick Peterson out and possibly Haason Reddick as well, the offense should run through Kerryon Johnson and the perimeter receivers. Arizona’s defense allowed the 2^nd-fewest tight end points in the league last year. All signs point to Hockenson being better suited for your bench than your lineup this week.

TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN (Wk. 1: vs. Atl.): There has been a lot of talk about the Vikings running more 2-TE sets this season with Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith, and that seems to make sense given that their number 3 receiver to open the year is probably Josh Doctson (the alternative is Chad Beebe). I’d still like to see it in action and see Smith make an impact before I trust him in lineups. The Vikings want to be a run-first offense and you know Diggs & Thielen will get their targets. For week 1, other cheap DFS tight end options I’d prefer over Smith include Vernon Davis (if Reed is out), Adam Shaheen (if Burton is out), Will Dissly, and CJ Uzomah.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 1: @Mia.): The Ravens are a 6.5-point road favorite this week against what might be the worst team in the NFL. Their offense projects to be run-heavy even in neutral game scripts. In a game like this, 40+ rushing attempts is very possible for them. Mark Ingram will start to open the year, and Gus Edwards is still on the roster, but I’d expect Hill to be the first guy off the bench and not Gus. Their OC just said today that everyone will play and they’ll ride the hot hand. First round pick Christian Wilkins may provide some help for the Dolphins abysmal run defense, but the entire defensive unit outside of Xavien Howard will be bad this year. Hill has a great chance at an expanded role this week if the Ravens play from ahead as expected. Kenneth Dixon averaged nearly 10 carries per game as the RB2 in Baltimore over the final 5 games last season. If the Ravens play from ahead, Hill probably gets more than that. He’s a bargain in DFS lineups and a playable flex option in deep leagues.

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 1: vs. NYG): The luster came off Pollard awfully quick when Zeke signed his mega extension this week, but hopefully you didn’t drop him when you heard the news. The Cowboys didn’t draft Pollard expecting him to assume the lead back role. They drafted him because he’s a dynamic receiving back and Zeke wasn’t all that efficient as a receiver last season. Elliott ranked 15^th in yards per target out of 19 backs who saw at least 50 targets. Obviously with the money Dallas is paying him Zeke is going to have a workhorse role, but that doesn’t mean Pollard won’t have one at all. He may even steal some slot snaps and targets from Randall Cobb. For week 1, I can’t imagine that Zeke will walk right back into a full workload. Reports are out that he will only see 20-25 snaps. If that proves true, Pollard should be in play as a flex option in most formats. The Giants allowed the 8^th-most RB points per game last season and didn’t really make strides to improve that unit. Like Baltimore, Dallas is a touchdown favorite and already leans more run-heavy in neutral game scripts.

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 1: vs. Cin.): DK is a risky play this week since he just had his knee scoped a couple weeks ago, but Pete Carroll says he’s good to go and the matchup is an enticing one. His snaps might be limited, but he specializes in the long ball and the Bengals allowed the 3^rd-most completions of 20+ yards and the 4^th-most completions of 40+ yards last year. They haven’t done much to address the secondary. Metcalf will need a deep ball or 2 to return value, but he is an intriguing swing to take in DFS tournaments.

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 1: @TB): I list Deebo here solely as a guy to stash on the bench for now. He shouldn’t be a free agent in leagues deeper than 10 teams, but he’s on rosters in just 18% of Yahoo and ESPN leagues. It’s only a matter of time before Samuel makes his way into a starter’s role in 3-WR sets, but for now he may be running behind Kendrick Bourne. That makes him a guy to leave on the bench this week, even in a juicy matchup against the Bucs.

WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 1: @LAC): Campbell lands in the same boat as Deebo. He’s rostered in even fewer leagues than Samuel – 7% of ESPN leagues and 6% on Yahoo. The Colts and Frank Reich have been raving about him throughout the summer and he should be a big part of their plans this year. He was limited to just one preseason game by a hamstring issue, but the Colts have said that Campbell won’t be limited at all in week one. He should open the year as their starting slot receiver over Chester Rogers. I’d still like to see what his usage will look like in this offense before throwing him into a lineup. He didn’t log a single preseason snap with Jacoby Brissett under center and the Colts might play more 2-TE sets than the average team with Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron on the roster. Outside of TY Hilton and Marlon Mack, the Colts are an offense to monitor early in the season before trusting their players in your lineups, but if Campbell is on the wire right now someone is going to get a great in-season pickup when they snag him.

WR Damion Willis, CIN (Wk. 1: @Sea.): Willis is an interesting name because he came out of nowhere this summer to take a starting spot across from Tyler Boyd in the Bengals’ offense with AJ Green sidelined. He was a vertical threat at Troy and should be a nice complement to possession receiver Boyd until AJG returns. Willis is a big target at 6’3”, 204, and had a 65^th percentile speed score as a prospect. He’s worth stashing in deeper leagues in case he flashes in week 1.

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 1: @Oak.): The Oakland Raiders have been notoriously bad at covering the TE position in recent years. Over the past 5 years, they’ve allowed the 13^th, 3^rd, 9^th, 6^th and 3^rd -most TE points per game. They return largely the same personnel at safety and outside linebacker from that group that allowed the 3^rd -most last year. They did add Lamarcus Joyner, but this will still be a sub-standard unit. Joe Flacco loves to target the tight end position – 21% of his career throws have gone to the position and Fant’s biggest competition on the roster is Jeff Heuerman who saw a career-high 48 targets last season. Coach Vic Fangio said this week that Fant will be “out there a lot” against the Raiders. If he sees 6+ targets he’ll prove to be a bargain at his $3,400 DraftKings price tag.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep an eye on the injury report through the week and make sure not to start anyone who is inactive. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything included in the article, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.