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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! As usual, the opening week of the season was full of surprises and disappointments. It was a bad week to be a star tight end (the top 6 tight ends by ADP all failed to score more than 8 PPR points), it was a bad week to be a rookie running back (only two rookie backs played 10+ snaps), it was a bad week to be Marvin Harrison Jr. (1 catch for 4 yards), but it was a good week to be a kicker attempting long field goals (kickers league-wide made 21 out of 23 attempts from 50+ yards).

It was also a good week to be Xavier Worthy, Brian Thomas Jr., Jayden Daniels, Jalen McMillan, or Ladd McConkey, who all found the end zone. My biggest piece of advice after week 1 is to not overreact to surprising fantasy point totals. Focus on the player’s usage rather than how many points they scored because touchdowns can be fluky. A player like Alec Pierce isn’t going to score 2 long touchdowns every week on just 3 targets, so we shouldn’t overreact to his point total. Quality volume is the name of the game, and that’s the lens I’ll be using as we get into what to expect in week 2.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s dive into week 2…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 2: vs NYG): Daniels’ passing performance was less than exciting if you started any of his pass catchers in week 1, but his usage was excellent if you started the rookie QB. He racked up 88 yards on 16 carries, including 8 designed rushing attempts, and found the end zone twice on the ground. Ladies & gentlemen, that’s over 20 fantasy points before you count any passing stats. Of course, he’s not going to run for 2 TDs every week, but his rushing production is going to give him a floor that puts him in the top-12 QBs more weeks than not. He should be treated as a QB1 every week, and especially this week against a bad Giants team that ranked 27^th in FTN’s pass defense DVOA a season ago.

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 2: @ Was.): One week into their NFL careers, Nabers is off to the best start of the big 3 WRs in the 2024 draft class. Rome Odunze and Marvin Harrison Jr. didn’t set a high bar for him to clear after combining for just 15 yards last Sunday, but Nabers cleared it with ease, finishing with 5 catches for 66 yards on 7 targets, good for PPR WR32 for the week. He ran an absurd 50 routes, 10 more routes than any of his teammates, and although Wan’Dale Robinson led the team in targets, Nabers is the clear alpha WR1 on this team. An interesting tidbit about Nabers’ debut: He ran 7 routes on plays where he went in motion pre-snap and was targeted on 6 of those plays. He had just 1 target on the other 43 routes run. I’m sure it’s something the Giants are aware of and will look to do more of in week 2. The biggest plus for Nabers this week is that he gets to face off with arguably the worst pass defense in the NFL. Washington allowed the most WR points per game and ranked 31^st in pass defense DVOA a year ago, and in week 1 this year they allowed the 2^nd-most WR points and ranked dead last in pass defense DVOA. This is a game where Nabers’ floor could be higher than his final line from last week. He did pop up on the injury report mid-week with a knee issue, so have a backup plan ready, but if Nabers is good to go, start him with confidence.

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 2: vs. LAR): Week 1 for Harrison could only be labeled a massive disappointment. He earned just 3 targets in his debut despite leading the team with a 95% route participation rate, and he finished with just 1 catch for 4 yards. When asked about Marv’s lack of involvement, QB Kyler Murray said he trusts in OC Drew Petzing, and that it isn’t his job to force the ball to Harrison. That tells me that Harrison probably wasn’t the first read in many of the plays that Petzing called. I’d expect that to change a bit this week. The Cardinals didn’t draft Harrison where they did to not use him. Speaking of where Marv was drafted, you didn’t draft Harrison in the 2^nd round of your fantasy drafts to sit him on the bench. I know week 1 was painful, but I’d advise rolling with him again this week against a Rams’ defense that allowed the 7^th-most WR points in week 1. I understand if you’re not willing to do that, but the targets are going to come.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 2: vs. Cin.): Worthy made a splashy debut last Thursday, finding the end zone twice and piling up 68 scrimmage yards on just 3 touches. The resulting top-10 finish for the week was great, but the underlying usage is what we were afraid of. Worthy’s long speed is going to be valuable to the Chiefs in opening up underneath routes for Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce, but it probably won’t result in a ton of targets for the rookie himself, so he’ll need to keep making splash plays to help your fantasy team. I think he will keep it up for week 2 at least. The Bengals allowed the 2^nd-most completions of 20+ yards in the NFL last season, and corner Cam Taylor-Britt may have poked the bear this week when asked about Worthy, saying “He can run straight…He can’t do much else, so that’s about it.” That’s the kind of bulletin board material that often backfires on the person providing it. I like Worthy’s chances of making Taylor-Britt eat his words this week and hitting the boom side of his boom-or-bust profile.

WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 2: @ Mia.): We entered week 1 not really knowing what to expect from the Buffalo receiver rotation, but coming out of week 1, it looks like Keon Coleman is the WR1. Coleman led the team with a 90% route participation rate (no other WR was above 70%), and he had a team-high 5 targets that he turned into 4 catches for 51 yards. Those numbers don’t jump off the page, but week 2 could see a better performance against a Miami defense that allowed the 11^th-most WR points per game last year and struggles against Josh Allen. Since the start of the 2022 season, Josh Allen has played 40 games against teams that are not the Miami Dolphins (playoffs included). In those games, he’s thrown for 300+ yards 10 times, and 350+ yards twice. In that same time frame, he’s played the Dolphins 5 times. He’s topped 300 yards against them in all 5 and put up 350+ yards in 3 of them. I don’t necessarily expect quite that many passing yards this year with a whole new WR group, but this feels like a week where the passing game could boom, and Coleman could be a big beneficiary of that. I’d treat him as an upside WR3.

TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 2: @ Bal.): At first glance, Bowers’ final stat line of 6-58-0 doesn’t jump off the page at you, but with so many of the top tight ends underperforming in week 1, it was good for a top-5 finish for the week, and the underlying usage was phenomenal. Bowers was in a route on 78% of the team passing dropbacks, and he earned a team-high 7 targets against the Chargers. I mentioned last week that Bowers led Georgia in receiving every year he was there, and it looks like he’ll waste no time pushing for a similar role in the NFL. I don’t expect him to overtake Davante Adams and lead the team in targets, but he should be #2. The defensive matchup this week is a tough one. The Ravens ranked 1^st in pass defense DVOA last season and allowed the 9^th-fewest TE points per game. They had a hard time slowing Patrick Mahomes in week 1 but should fare better against Gardner Minshew. Even in this tough matchup though, I think Bowers is a top-10 TE play this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 2: @ Hou.): Caleb’s debut performance did not go according to plan. He missed some throws he should make; his vaunted receiving weapons didn’t help him out very much, he finished with a pathetic 3.2 yards per attempt, and to make matters worse, he lost Rome Odunze to injury in the process. The Bears’ defense managed to bail Williams out and help the team to a win, but Caleb needs to play better. I expect improvement this week against a Houston defense that allowed the 11^th-most QB points per game last season and had the 6^th-lowest pressure rate in the league last week, but without Odunze I have a hard time viewing Caleb as more than a lower-end QB2 in this one. On the plus side, there should be passing volume with the Bears nearly a touchdown underdog.

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Pit.): Until a couple of 4^th quarter drives last Sunday, Nix was having an even worse week than Caleb. As I expected, he struggled with Mike McDonald’s complex coverage disguises and threw two costly interceptions. Bo managed to put together a solid TD drive in the final minutes to make the final score look close and finish as the QB16 for the week, but he had just 3.3 fantasy points entering that final drive. There are things to like here – Bo showed that he can provide rushing production even though the Broncos aren’t calling designed runs for him (5-35-1 on the ground on 5 scrambles), and Sean Payton was willing to let him drop back and throw more than 40 times in his first game. Unfortunately, his matchup isn’t any easier this week. The Steelers dominated Kirk Cousins in week 1, generating the 8^th-highest pressure rate in the league and holding Cousins to the 5^th-lowest QB score of the week. If Nix doesn’t find the end zone with his legs again, he’ll have a hard time matching his week 1 output. I’d treat Nix as a fringe QB2 this week.

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 2: @ Det.): Irving was the most impressive of the rookie backs last week, putting up 76 scrimmage yards on 11 touches while most other rookie backs didn’t play even 10 snaps. 8 of those 11 touches occurred in the second half while the Bucs were up by multiple scores. I wouldn’t count on that happening again this week against Detroit, where the Bucs are a touchdown underdog. Starter Rachaad White has been wildly inefficient as a runner (3.6 ypc last season, 2.1 ypc in week 1), leading to speculation that Irving may eventually steal some of his workload, but the Bucs love what White provides in the passing game. Rachaad was 2^nd on the team in the opener with 6 catches and 75 receiving yards. I don’t expect a drastic shift in rushing workload in week 2, and the Lions are a stout run defense anyway. They ranked first in run defense DVOA a year ago and allowed the fewest RB fantasy points per game, and they limited the Rams’ backfield to the 7^th-fewest fantasy points in week 1. Don’t expect a repeat of week 1 for Bucky in this matchup. It’ll be a win if he breaks 30 scrimmage yards.

WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 2: @ Car.): McConkey’s usage looked pretty much how we expected it to in week 1. He was 3^rd among Chargers’ WRs in route participation rate, playing mostly in the slot, but he was their most-targeted pass catcher, putting up 5-39-1 on 7 targets. The problem for McConkey is his 5.3-yard aDOT. With that kind of usage in the short part of the field, he’s going to either need volume or a touchdown to turn in a quality fantasy day, and I’m just not convinced they’ll need to throw much to beat the Panthers. The Chargers want to run the ball as much as they can, and the Panthers are going to have a hard time giving them compelling reasons to throw it. If you trust the Panthers to keep this game competitive, McConkey is a reasonable WR3 option. If you expect a blowout, you’re praying for a touchdown if you start him.

WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX (Wk. 2: vs. Cle.): Thomas finished his debut as a top-20 PPR WR, but I’m not counting on a repeat performance in week 2. Thomas’ fantasy day was buoyed by a touchdown catch, but my concern for the Jaguars’ pass catchers is that the team seems to be more run-heavy this year than in previous years. They ran 50 offensive plays in week 1, and 26 of them were rushing plays, including 12 for Tank Bigsby. That run-heavy approach could’ve been matchup related – the Jaguars were up by 2 scores early in the game, and running the ball limits how many possessions the explosive Dolphins’ offense gets – but it’s still a little troubling. T-Law didn’t throw fewer than 29 pass attempts in any game last season, so 21 in the opener isn’t a great sign. Thomas’ 4 targets last Sunday actually tied for the team lead. The Browns were an elite pass defense last year, so I tend to trust that they’re better than they looked in week 1 against Dallas. I’d err on the side of sitting Thomas this week in a bad matchup so we can get a better idea of whether the Jags’ low passing volume is a trend or just a week 1 fluke.

WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 2: @ GB): I’m not sure any single player left more fantasy points on the field in week 1 than Mitchell. The rookie pulled in just 1 catch for 2 yards on 5 targets in the opener, but he and Anthony Richardson just missed connecting on deep targets that could’ve gone for TDs not once, not twice, but thrice. It’s a great sign that Richardson likes to push the ball down the field, but it’s not a great sign that Richardson has had more success doing it when he’s throwing to Alec Pierce rather than Mitchell. Josh Downs returned to practice Wednesday, and if he’s active this week, Mitchell will likely be relegated to competing for WR3 snaps with Pierce. Given how Pierce performed in week 1, I’m not sure Mitchell would get any more than a 50/50 split, if he even gets that. Green Bay isn’t a great pass defense, ranking 26^th in pass defense DVOA a year ago, but they didn’t let opponents take the top off. The Packers allowed just 3 completions of 40+ yards all season. If Downs plays, I’d keep Mitchell parked on the bench. If Downs sits, Mitchell becomes a volatile WR4 option.

WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 2: @ Det.): McMillan pulled in just 1 of his 3 targets last week, but he made it count, securing a 32-yard touchdown to start the 4^th quarter. His other two targets both also looked like they might go for touchdowns if Jalen had managed to haul them in, so he narrowly missed out on a massive day. It was promising to see he’ll be used as a full-time receiver in this offense (he was in a route on 88% of the team passing dropbacks), but 3 targets on 30 routes and a high aDOT screams boom-or-bust. He’ll be a low-volume WR3 behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and while that resulted in a nice TD catch in week one against arguably the worst secondary in the NFL, it’s not guaranteed to happen again in Detroit. The Lions allowed a league-high 69 completions of 20+ yards last season, but they also went out and signed Carlton Davis and drafted Terrion Arnold to improve their starting CB spots. Cooper Kupp still had a field day against them last week, but they’re certainly better than the Commanders. McMillan is a boom-or-bust WR4 option in Detroit on Sunday.

WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 2: vs. LAC): Legette’s usage in week 1 was promising. His 59% route participation was lower than you’d like for a fantasy starter, but he led the team in catches and targets, and saw an impressive 37% share of the air yards for the week. All of that usage only led to 7.5 PPR points though, and the Chargers look like a much-improved defense in 2024 under Jim Harbaugh and Jesse Minter. The Chargers ranked 27^th in pass defense DVOA a season ago, and ranked 8^th in week 1. Of course, that could be because they faced Gardner Minshew, but I’m not sure Bryce Young is a tougher QB to defend at this point. Legette is probably in line for similar usage this week, which makes him a WR4/5 option.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 2: vs. NYG): McCaffrey was 2^nd on the Commanders behind Terry McLaurin in week 1 with a 71% route participation rate, but his upside is capped by Jayden Daniels’ unwillingness to push the ball down the field (could be a scheme issue rather than QB issue), and his penchant for scrambling. Daniels dropped back 34 times in week 1, and attempted just 24 passes, and the 3 passes that went in McCaffrey’s direction totaled negative-2 air yards. He finished with 3 catches for 18 yards on those targets. McCaffrey gets a favorable matchup this week against a Giants’ defense that allowed the 5^th-most WR points per game last year, but the Washington passing game is a work in progress, and I don’t expect a breakout game for the rookie this week.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 2: @ Was.): Tracy was one of just two rookie running backs to play 10+ snaps in week 1, but his 14 snaps amounted to just 3 touches and 7 yards. The Giants get a much better matchup this week against a bad Commanders’ defense, but I wouldn’t have enough trust in Tracy to plug him into lineups.

RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 2: @ Mia.): There was a lot of excitement about Davis potentially playing the ‘Latavius Murray role’ in the offense behind James Cook, where he would see goal line opportunities in addition to change-of-pace work. Instead, he played just 6 snaps and served as the 3^rd-string running back behind both Cook and Ty Johnson, and the only Bill to handle a rushing attempt inside the 5-yard line was Cook. Davis still has some work to do before you can plug him into the lineup.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 2: vs. LAR): Like Ray Davis above, Benson opened the season one spot lower on the depth chart than we were hoping for, handling RB3 duties behind workhorse James Conner and Emari Demercado. Demercado played more in passing situations, while Benson spelled Conner on early downs. Even if he had all the backup work behind Conner, he likely still wouldn’t be getting enough work to be a viable fantasy starter. Demercado and Benson combined for just 6 touches in week 1.

RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 2: vs. Cin.): Steele’s role in week 1 played out pretty much as I expected it to. He was merely an early down change of pace back when Isiah Pacheco needed a breather. The rookie played just 4 snaps and handled 2 rushing attempts while Samaje Perine played 8 snaps in passing situations. A couple carries isn’t enough for fantasy relevance, even against a mediocre Bengals run defense (they ranked 28^th in run defense DVOA a season ago).

RB Isaac Guerendo, SF (Wk. 2: @ Min.): Guerendo served as the RB2 for the 49ers when Christian McCaffrey was a surprise inactive on Monday night, but it’s not a role that makes him fantasy relevant, even if CMC misses another game or two. Jordan Mason was fantastic as the fill-in RB1 last week, piling up 147 yards and a TD, and his change-of-pace back was Deebo Samuel. Whenever CMC is out, the 49ers lean more heavily on Deebo out of the backfield. Samuel carried the ball 8 times on Monday night while Guerendo was limited to just 3 snaps.

RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 2: @ Ari.): Corum’s time will come. He’ll eventually work his way into the RB2 role behind Kyren Williams, but for now he’s running behind Ronnie Rivers as well. Corum didn’t play a single snap in week 1 and will be limited to kick return duties for the time being. Don’t get impatient if you drafted Corum but know that he probably won’t play a very meaningful role in these first few weeks.

RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 2: @ Ten.): Allen logged 8 snaps in week 1, but many of those came late in the game after the Jets had fallen behind and pulled Aaron Rodgers from the game. This backfield wholly belongs to Breece Hall, and Allen is just hoping for scraps. The Titans are a tough matchup for running backs even when they do get opportunities. I don’t expect Allen to get many of them.

RB Marshawn Lloyd, GB (Wk. 2: vs. Ind.): Lloyd was inactive in week 1 with a hamstring injury, and there’s a good chance that even if he’s good to play this week, he may serve as the RB3 behind Josh Jacobs and Emmanuel Wilson. This Colts’ defense got dismantled by Joe Mixon in week 1, and Jordan Love is out with injury, so the Packers will likely lean on the ground game. If all 3 Packer backs are active, I wouldn’t expect more than a handful of touches for Lloyd. Josh Jacobs did pop up with an injury as well this week, but it doesn’t sound serious. I’d expect him to be in line for his usual workload.

RBs Audric Estime & Blake Watson, DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Pit.): I was going to talk about Estime playing just 3 snaps in the opener, but if you missed the news, he was placed on IR on Wednesday and will miss at least the next 4 games. That means Blake Watson will step up into the RB3 role going forward, but I don’t expect him to find substantial playing time. Jaleel McLaughlin was terribly inefficient in week 1, tallying just 28 total yards on 15 touches, but he was hardly the only inefficient Bronco in the opener. I wouldn’t expect a drastic change in playing time in the backfield for week 2. Watson could be worth a stash in deep PPR leagues though in case that inefficiency continues.

WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 2: vs. Sea.): Polk didn’t start in week 1, but he played essentially a starter’s share of the snaps. He was in a route on 62% of the team’s passing dropbacks, but that led to just 1 target that he caught for 6 yards. The New England passing offense is going to be conservative as long as Jacoby Brissett is under center, and the Seahawks’ defense looked stellar in week 1 – they ranked 2^nd in pass defense DVOA for the week. I wouldn’t count on Polk breaking through this week.

WR Roman Wilson, PIT (Wk. 2: @ Den.): It’s still unclear whether Wilson will make his NFL debut this week (he’s getting in limited practices as of Wednesday), but he’d be a lackluster fantasy option even if we knew he was being inserted right into the starting lineup. With Justin Fields at QB, the Steelers attempted just 23 passes in week 1, and half of the targets went to George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth. Wilson would be splitting the other half with the running backs, Van Jefferson, Calvin Austin, and the backup tight ends (we all know how Arthur Smith likes his backup tight ends). Wait until we see what Roman’s usage looks like before starting him.

WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 2: @ Ari.): The Rams’ WR room took a big hit in week one when Puka Nacua suffered an injury that will land him on IR and sideline him for at least 4 weeks. Tyler Johnson and Demarcus Robinson figure to be the biggest beneficiaries of the available playing time, but Whittington could see a bump as well. He technically only played 2 offensive snaps in the opener, but he did have a goal-line TD run get called back due to penalty. One goal-line rushing attempt isn’t enough reason to start him this week, but you could see his role grow during Puka’s absence. Whittington put up gaudy numbers during the preseason when the 1^st and 2^nd stringers were sitting and impressed the coaches.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 2: @ Hou.): If you missed the news, Odunze sprained his MCL last weekend and is considered week-to-week. He’s almost certain to miss this week’s tilt with the Texans.

WR Malachi Corley, NYJ (Wk. 2: @ Ten.): Corley didn’t run a single route in week 1, and there’s not much reason to expect a drastic change in week 2. If anything, the competition for playing time will get tougher after a strong opener by Allen Lazard and with Mike Williams getting healthier. There’s no reason to fire up Corley.

WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 2: @ KC): The Bengals were without Tee Higgins in week 1 and Burton still didn’t come close to cracking the WR rotation. He played behind all of Andrei Iosivas, Trenton Irwin, and Charlie Jones, and ran just 1 route in week 1. Tee Higgins looks to be on the wrong side of questionable again this week, but Burton likely isn’t going to pick up much playing time as a result.

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 2: vs. LAC): Sanders was on the field a lot in week 1, running a route on 69% of the Panthers’ passing dropbacks, but he was targeted just once, and he was 3 yards behind the line of scrimmage on that target. Even though he’s playing starter’s snaps, this is a broken passing game where he’s an afterthought in the target pecking order for now.

TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 2: vs. NYG): If Sinnott is going to play a major role in the Commanders offense this season, it’s going to happen later in the season than we’d like. He played behind both Zach Ertz and John Bates in week 1, running just 3 target-less routes. There’s upside here, especially with the Commanders’ scheme focusing on short passes for Jayden Daniels, but you’re going to have to be patient and wait for his playing time to come up.

Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 2: vs. Buf.): Wright was a healthy scratch in week 1, but that almost certainly won’t be the case in week 2 with Raheem Mostert already ruled out for Thursday night’s game and De’Von Achane questionable as well. Jeff Wilson Jr. served as the RB3 in the opener, and he has more experience in this offense, but Wright’s big-play ability makes him the more enticing fantasy option. We know the Dolphins love game-breaking speed, and Wright has plenty of it. If Achane plays, look for Wright to only log a handful of touches, but there’s a chance he could break any one of them for a big play. If Achane sits, I’d expect Wilson to get the start, but would expect Mike McDaniel to be willing the ride the hot hand if Wright gets it going. If Achane sits, I’d see Wright as an upside RB3 option this week.

Update: De’Von Achane is active for Thursday night

WR Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Pit.): The Broncos passing game was an ugly slog of short passes, but a lot of those short passes found their way to Vele, and he did a great job of hauling in the targets that came his way. The rookie had 8 targets with just a 2-yard average target depth, but he did catch all 8 passes for 39 yards and finish the week as a top-30 PPR WR. It’s clear Bo Nix and Sean Payton like Vele, and Denver’s pass-heavy approach should make him a viable PPR WR3 in a lot of weeks.  The Steelers do boast a strong pass defense, so I wouldn’t be too aggressive about getting Vele into the lineup this week, but he should probably be rostered in most 12-team PPR leagues.

TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 2: @ Was.): Johnson’s week 1 usage was a big surprise after the Giants’ listed Daniel Bellinger as their starting tight end on their final depth chart. Johnson was in a route on 76% of the team’s dropbacks while Bellinger was in a route on just 16%. Johnson is the starting tight end. This week isn’t a great matchup to plug Johnson in – the Commanders get shredded by wide receivers but allowed the 10^th-fewest TE points per game a year ago – but he shouldn’t be sitting on waivers in deeper leagues, especially 2-TE or TE premium leagues. Johnson is an impressive athlete and had an 18% air yardage share in week 1 on his 4 targets. You’d prefer he had a better QB throwing him the ball, but there are some spike weeks in Johnson’s future with his physical traits and playing time.

TE Brevyn Spann-Ford, DAL (Wk. 2: vs. NO): Spann-Ford is really only a name you need to be familiar with in the deepest of TE-premium leagues. Cowboys’ starter Jake Ferguson suffered a sprained MCL late in Dallas’ opening win against the Browns, and it was the UDFA rookie Spann-Ford that was 2^nd on the team in tight end routes run, and not 2023 2^nd-round pick Luke Schoonmaker. Both will likely factor in while Ferguson is sidelined (a sprained MCL should keep him out for a few weeks), but if I had to pick one to target, I’d rather add Schoonmaker than Spann-Ford. It's likely the rookie saw extended snaps in the opener due to the lopsided score. Schoonmaker is a better athlete, has more sure hands (PFF credited Brevyn with 9 drops in 2023 despite catching just 25 passes), and more pro experience. I’d treat Schoonmaker as a streaming TE2 option and Spann-Ford as a stash to watch this week if you need immediate TE help in deep leagues.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Is it just me, or did the first month of the season fly by? It was a month full of frustrating injuries, frustratingly low passing volume, and frustrating tight end performances, but there was plenty of good in there too. Several rookies have wasted no time in showing they belong in the NFL, while others are still biding their time and waiting for an opportunity. I think we’ll see a few more of them start to emerge over the next quarter of the season.

Hopefully at this point you find your team sitting in a good place and are not considering doing anything too drastic to change your fortunes. The best course of action for a struggling team is usually to make minor tweaks rather than blow the whole thing up, but you certainly shouldn’t be complacent if you’re sitting at 0-4. We enter the first bye week this weekend, you may be looking at using some players you typically wouldn’t, and I’m guessing for a lot of you, some of those players are rookies. I’m here as always to help you sift through which rookies can propel you to victory.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s get into week 5…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. Cle.): Daniels is the QB1 for the season by total points. He’s finished as the QB5 or better in 3 out of 4 weeks, and the Commanders’ offense has only had two drives in the last 3 weeks that didn’t end in points. Everything is clicking for Daniels and Washington, and while this could be the toughest secondary he’s faced yet this season, you can’t sit him. There is a little bit of risk of a down game against a Cleveland defense that allows the 7^th-fewest QB points per game, but I have a feeling Daniels will do enough with his legs to offset any drop off in passing production. The Browns play man-to-man coverage at the 3^rd-highest rate in the league this year, and man-to-man defense can leave open huge rushing lanes if the DBs turn their back to the QB. Cleveland will likely look to use a spy to keep Daniels contained, but I expect at least a couple opportunities to break a long run. Jayden has to be treated as a clear top-10 QB option this week.

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 5: @ Sea.): Nabers left last week’s game with a concussion, but not before he had tallied 12 catches for 115 yards. There’s a little concern here since Nabers hasn’t cleared the concussion protocol yet, but as long as he gets cleared in time to play, there shouldn’t be any drop-off in his performance level. Nabers has logged 3 straight top-6 PPR finishes and has seen massive target shares in all 3 games (at least a 38% share and 12+ targets in each). The Seahawks are a tough matchup – they rank 9^th in FTN’s pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 8^th-fewest WR points per game, but that shouldn’t deter you from starting him. Expecting a 4^th straight top-6 finish may be too lofty, but he’s a locked & loaded WR1 if he’s able to get cleared in time.

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 5: @ SF): Harrison’s fantasy production hasn’t been quite as scintillating as fellow rookie standout Malik Nabers, but after a disaster debut, he’s now logged 3 straight games with 15+ PPR points and at least a 25% target share. The 49ers are a formidable defense, ranking 5^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve allowed 3 different receivers to top 80 yards against them in 4 games. Harrison should have a good chance to be #4. He’s a quality WR2 option this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX (Wk. 5: vs. Ind.): Thomas has been about as consistent as a rookie can be through 4 weeks. His route participation rate has been between 77% and 83% in all 4 weeks, his target share has been 20% or higher in 3 of them, and his air yardage share has been 19% or higher in all 4. While that consistency has been there since week 1, he’s really emerged as a go-to receiver in this offense over the last two weeks, earning 9 targets in each of the last 2 games. His usage and production have made him a weekly fantasy WR3, but his recent uptick in targets and a plus matchup this week give him even more upside in week 5. The Colts have allowed the 10^th-most WR points per game and have allowed a 100-yard receiver in 3 of their 4 games this season. In the only game where they avoided allowing a 100-yard receiving performance, Malik Willis was the opposing starting QB. Thomas should be treated as a WR2 this week and is the likeliest Jaguar pass catcher to top the century mark.

WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 5: vs. NO): Worthy displayed the feast or famine nature of starting him in fantasy football yet again last week. He’s yet to top 4 targets in any game this year, but he’s also posted a top-10 and a top-20 finish in the weeks where he and Patrick Mahomes have managed to connect on a deep ball (he caught a 54-yard TD in week 4). The problem is that he’s finished outside the top-65 WRs in the weeks where they haven’t connected deep. The upside is still enticing, and while this isn’t a great defensive matchup to attack with Worthy (New Orleans ranks 2^nd in pass defense DVOA on deep throws), I have a feeling we’re going to see Worthy’s floor get elevated with Rashee Rice on IR. The conventional wisdom is that Travis Kelce is going to pick up a lot of that additional work in the short & intermediate part of the field, but I think Worthy benefits as well. He’s still mostly a boom-or-bust player with a low floor, but I think the ceiling makes him a viable WR3 this week, even in a tougher matchup.

WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 5: vs. GB): Whittington’s role in this Rams’ offense drastically changed from week 3 to week 4, and I think it’s worth us taking notice. I had a lot of hope for Whittington getting a chance in this offense when Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua went down, but in week 3 without Kupp, he played behind all of Demarcus Robinson, Tutu Atwell and Tyler Johnson and was limited to just a 34% route participation rate. Something we should’ve paid more attention to is the fact that he was targeted on 30% of his routes in that game. The ball found it’s way to him when he was on the field, and when his route rate jumped up to 97% in week 4, the target rate stayed high. Whittington was targeted 8 times last week and finished with a solid 6-62 line. I think the Rams have found something here, and I expect him to play close to a full-time role again this week against a Green Bay defense that has allowed the 7^th-most WR points per game and ranks 20^th in pass defense DVOA. The Rams are 3.5-point underdogs, so game script should keep them throwing enough for Whittington to find his way to a WR3 finish. He should be a very solid, but unspectacular fill-in option if you’re looking for help covering an injury or bye this week.

TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 5: @ Den.): Realistically, Bowers still belongs in ‘Rookies You Know You Should Start’ section, but you might take issue with me calling him an auto-start after posting TE15 and TE22 finishes in the last two weeks. You might not realize that he logged his highest route participation rate of the season last weekend (81%) with Michael Mayer out for personal reasons. The targets weren’t exactly there, but Mayer looks to be out again this week and any tight end running a route on 80%+ of a team’s dropbacks should be considered a slam dunk top-10 option for the week. The Broncos aren’t an imposing matchup here. They’ve allowed the 16^th-most TE points per game on the year. You should continue to feel comfortable starting Bowers in all formats unless your format doesn’t require you to start a tight end.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Caleb Wiliams, CHI (Wk. 5: vs. Car.): Caleb Williams has the same outlook this week that he does most weeks…he’s a weekly QB2 that has some fringe QB1 appeal in really good matchups (especially during bye weeks for other QBs). His matchup this week is a pretty good one – the Panthers allow the 10^th-most QB points per game and rank 23^rd in pass defense DVOA, but that’s not quite enticing enough for Caleb to be a top-12 option in my opinion. The Bears are a 4-point favorite, so passing volume could be on the lower end, and I still don’t quite trust Shane Waldron yet. Every opponent the Panthers have faced this year has thrown for multiple TDs against them. If Caleb does that, he should push near a top-12 finish, but I’d view him as a mid-to-high end QB2 this week.

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 5: vs. LV): Unlike Caleb Williams, Nix is a borderline option for 2-QB and superflex formats, not 1-QB leagues. Nix posted a performance in week 4 that few QBs have ever matched. He became just the 8^th quarterback to ever throw for 60 or fewer passing yards on 25 or more attempts in a game, and the first QB to do it since Tim Hasselbeck in 2003. Nix is the only QB to ever do that and win the game. It was a level of inefficiency that we just don’t see in the NFL anymore. In fact, at halftime, Nix had 8 completions for negative-7 yards. Things can only get better this week against the Raiders, who rank 25^th in pass defense DVOA, but the Broncos implied Vegas point total is under 20, and only 1 QB this season has found the end zone more than once against the Raiders. Nix’s rushing upside and favorable matchup mean you could plug him in as a QB2 if you had to, but I’d prefer to have a better option available.

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 5: @ Atl.): Irving has been a hot waiver wire name now for a couple weeks thanks to a handful of impressive breakaway runs and some coach speak from Todd Bowles ahead of week 4 saying Irving has earned more work. The reality is that this backfield hasn’t shifted as drastically as you might think. Irving was out snapped by Rachaad White 44 to 30 in week 4. The gap between the duo has been narrowing, but White is still the RB1 in this backfield for now. The calls to for Irving to get more playing time were largely due to White’s abysmal rushing efficiency, but in week 4 White matched Irving with 10 carries for 49 yards on the ground. White has also averaged 8.3 yards per target while Irving has averaged just 4.3. Rachaad is going to have to continue to run well to stave off calls for him to lose more work to the rookie, but his receiving work is safe, and he’ll continue to handle about half of the rushing attempts for now as well. That means Irving is going to have to continue generating breakaway runs or find the end zone to be useful in your fantasy lineup, and the Falcons have allowed just 2 rushes of 20+ yards thus far. Atlanta allows the 10^th-fewest RB points per game. It’s not a great matchup to attack with a running back that’s getting less than 50% of the workload. I’d view Irving as a fringe RB3 this week at best.

RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 5: @ Min.): Allen has now played 20+ snaps and received 9 or more opportunities in each of the last 3 games, but that usage level continues to make him a clear second fiddle to Breece Hall. He’s already shown us this season that he’s a flex-worthy option in good matchups, and he’s going to prove valuable at some crucial moment during bye weeks, but the matchup this week is rough. The Vikings rank 1^st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 4^th-fewest RB points per game. It’s just not the right spot to count on Allen making an impact in a part-time role.

RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 5: vs. NO): Steele may have fumbled away his opportunity to lead the Chiefs’ backfield during Isiah Pacheco’s absence last week. He fumbled his first carry of the game, played one more series, and then was barely seen the rest of the day as Kareem Hunt served as the lead back. Steele finished the game with just a 19% snap share and saw just one opportunity – a target he didn’t catch- after the first 2 drives. Andy Reid said after the game that “he’s got to hang on to the football,” but insisted that Steele is not a fumbler and that they still have confidence in him. I think they’ve at least lost enough confidence in him that he no longer has a stranglehold on the early down work, and that makes him tough to start against a Saints’ defense that ranks 8^th in run defense DVOA. He’s got to re-earn that lead back role before you can plug him into lineups.

WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 5: @ Chi.): Legette took a big step forward in week 4 with Adam Thielen sidelined, logging an 88% route participation rate and tallying 6-66-1 on 10 targets, good for a WR13 finish for the week. It’s an extremely positive development for the rookie’s outlook for the next month or so while Thielen is out, but I’m going to be a little bit of a wet blanket here for at least week 5. Legette still ran fewer routes than both Diontae Johnson and Jonathan Mingo last weekend, and his breakout game came against a Cincy defense that has been struggling to contain wide receivers in the last 3 weeks – they’ve allowed 20+ PPR points to 4 different receivers in the last 3 games. The Bears, on the other hand, have allowed just one receiver all year to reach that mark (Nico Collins). Chicago ranks 4^th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 6^th-fewest WR points per game. I also think Legette is likely to draw the toughest CB assignment more often than Mingo or Diontae. The Bears have a clear #1 CB in Jaylon Johnson, who has been significantly better than CB2 Tyrique Stevenson and nickel Kyler Gordon. The Bears are predictable about where these corners line up. Mingo in the slot will draw mostly Gordon, and I expect Carolina to do what they can to keep WR1 Diontae Johnson away from Jaylon Johnson, meaning Legette is going to have to tangle with him often. It doesn’t mean Xavier can’t be useful this week. There’s certainly upside and he’s carved out a role, but I see him as more of a WR4 this week than WR3.

WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 5: @ Hou.): Coleman saw his route participation rate in week 4 climb back up to 73% after being all the way down at 31% the week prior, but that additional usage led to just 3 catches on 4 targets, with most of that production coming late in the game when the Bills were in a deep hole on the scoreboard. Houston has been a favorable matchup for fantasy WRs, allowing the 8^th-most points per game to the position, but Coleman just hasn’t been involved enough in the last couple weeks when the games are still in doubt to trust him here. I’d keep him parked on the bench until we see him start to get more early usage in tight games.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 5: vs. Car.): We got one glorious week of the Bears running their passing game through Odunze in week 3, but in week 4 he was back to running wind sprints. He’s now posted a target share below 15% in 3 out of 4 games this season despite being a full-time player, and he’s finished as the PPR WR50 or worse in all 3 of those games. There are going to be spike weeks when the Bears have to throw the ball a lot, but I worry this week’s contest could look a bit more like last week’s. Caleb Williams dropped back 103 times in weeks 2 & 3 combined as the Bears played from behind against the Texans and Colts. He dropped back just 26 times against the Rams while playing from the lead with the run game finally working. The Bears are 4-point favorites this week against Carolina, so the passing volume could again be a problem for Odunze. A 15% target share and 30 or fewer pass attempts means an uphill climb to a fantasy relevant finish for Rome.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 5: @ NE): Wright played his highest snap share of the season in week 4. He was on the field for 46% of the offensive snaps and was in a route on 54% of the team’s passing dropbacks, turning that usage into 9 rushing attempts and 1 target. The problem is that this offense has been a mess without Tua under center, those opportunities didn’t lead to much production, and Raheem Mostert seems likely to return from injury this week. The Patriots are just a middling run defense, but the Dolphins have a paltry implied total of 17.25 for the week, and Wright will likely serve as the RB3 if Mostert is able to play.

RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 5: @ Hou.): Davis’ box score performances make it look like he’s had good involvement in the Bills offense, totaling 23 rush attempts in the last 3 games, but all 3 contests were blowouts, and Davis is getting the bulk of his work in garbage time. He’s only reached a 20% snap share once in 4 games, and this week’s contest with the Texans should be close enough that Davis doesn’t get much garbage time work. The Bills are favored by just one point. Davis is basically a TD dart throw with a low chance of hitting the mark.

RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 5: @ Sea.): Tracy has averaged 15 snaps and 4 opportunities per game, which just isn’t enough work behind Devin Singletary to be worthwhile in fantasy lineups.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 5: @ SF): Benson handled 30% of the Cardinals’ rushing attempts last week, but much of that work was at the tail end of a blowout loss to the Commanders. He’s still splitting backup work with Emari Demercado, spelling James Conner in early down situations while Demercado spells him on passing downs. This week figures to have more of the latter with the Cardinals a 7.5-point underdog to the 49ers.

RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 5: vs. GB): Corum hasn’t played a single offensive snap in 3 of the 4 games the Rams have played this season.

WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): Polk saw his best usage of the season in week 4, running a route on 87% of the team dropbacks and earning 7 targets (24% target share). He even made a highlight real catch on a sideline throw dropped between two 49er defenders. The usage was more promising than the 3-30 final stat line that Polk finished with, and I’d be more bullish on Polk going forward if I felt like we could count on that usage continuing, but I don’t think we can. The Patriots’ week-to-week usage of their pass catchers has been very inconsistent, especially when it comes to targets. Each of their top 3 receivers have had at least one week with a 60% route participation rate and 5% or lower target share. They’ve also each posted a week with a 24% or higher target share. It’s impossible to trust any New England wide receiver when the team is averaging less than 150 passing yards per game, and you have no clue which receiver is going to see the target volume from week-to-week.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. Cle.): McCaffrey was limited to a 47% route participation rate and just 1 target in week 4 as Noah Brown continued his ascent up the WR depth chart. Brown has seen his own route participation rate climb from 32% in week 2 to 58% in week 3 and 72% in week 4. He’s functioning as the clear WR2 behind Terry McLaurin, and McCaffrey is left splitting WR3 work with Olamide Zaccheaus. The Commanders are too run-heavy of an offense to take a chance on a player who is playing half of the WR3 role.

WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 5: @ Jax.): Mitchell has run just 11 routes and tallied zero catches in the two games since Josh Downs returned to the lineup. There’s a sliver of hope this week that he hits a splash play and winds up fantasy viable – the Colts have still tried to get him the ball deep, throwing 4 targets in his direction for 105 total air yards in the last 2 weeks, and the Jaguars rank dead last in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 2^nd-most completions of 20+ yards in the league. If there isn’t a deep ball connection though, there’s a very real chance Adonai scores zero points yet again.

WRs Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 5: vs. LV): The Raiders rank just 25^th in pass defense DVOA this year, so there’s an opportunity for success against them in the passing game, but Franklin and Vele aren’t involved enough to be relied on. Vele had a promising week 1 but has been sidelined with a rib injury since. Now that he’s missed 3 weeks and Lil’Jordan Humphrey has established himself in the slot, Vele will likely have to earn back those reps slowly upon his return. Franklin has seen a small bump in playing time in recent weeks, logging route participation rates of 30 and 35% in the last two games, and Bo Nix targeted him on more than 40% of his routes in each game, but that turned into just 4 catches for 9 yards on 9 targets. His role could increase in future weeks, but neither player here is likely to exceed a handful of PPR points even if they have a good week.

WR Roman Wilson, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Dal.): Is this the week Wilson is finally activated? It probably won’t matter in fantasy. He’s missed enough time that there will be an inevitable ramp up before he’s playing a meaningful number of snaps. Rumors that the Steelers might trade for a WR diminish his value even further.

WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): In two games with Tee Higgins back from injury, Burton has run just 5 routes total and earned zero targets.

TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 5: @ Sea.): Johnson continues to operate as the Giants lead tight end, but the volume just hasn’t been there. He’s averaged nearly a 70% route participation rate, but he’s only been targeted on 5% of the routes he’s run. We saw some promise in week one when he was targeted 4 times, but he’s earned just 4 total targets in the last 3 weeks as Malik Nabers has ascended.

TE AJ Barner, SEA (Wk. 5: vs. NYG): I mention Barner because he got into the end zone on Monday Night Football against Detroit and posted a top-10 finish for the week as a result. There’s not a good reason to chase the touchdown here. Barner has made the most of his opportunities – he’s caught all 5 of his targets this season for 40 yards and a score, but he’s averaged just a 25% route participation rate and is no higher than 7^th in the offensive pecking order on this team. Starting TE Noah Fant has also made the most of his opportunities, pulling in 8 of 8 targets for 86 yards on the year, making it harder for Barner to make real headway.

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 5: @ Chi.): Sanders posted his best fantasy day of the season last weekend. He only put up 2 catches for 16 yards, but it was still his best fantasy day of the season. Unfortunately, he also logged his lowest route participation rate of the season as well at just 21%. At this point, Sanders is merely the backup to Tommy Tremble. He hasn’t topped 2 targets in any game this year.

TE Tip Reiman, ARI (Wk. 5: @ SF): As I expected last week, it was Elijah Higgins, and not Reiman who served as the Cardinals TE1 with Trey McBride sidelined by a concussion. Reiman was in a route on just 14% of the team dropbacks and wasn’t targeted. McBride is fully expected to be back this week.

TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. Cle.): Sinnott has been on the field a little bit more in the last two weeks, reaching a 20% route participation rate in each game, but his next target this season will be his first. He’s still splitting backup TE work with John Bates.

Rookies on Byes in week 5: WR Ladd McConkey, LAC

IR Rookies (practice window not open yet): RB Jonathan Brooks, CAR, RB Audric Estime, DEN, WR Ricky Pearsall, SF

Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:

QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): Jerod Mayo keeps insisting that the Patriots aren’t all that close to making a change at QB, but beat writers have suggested there are rumblings from within the building that the change could be getting close. If Maye is still on the waiver wire in 2-QB redraft leagues, the best time to stash him would be now, before the change happens. If the Patriots fall to the Tyler Huntley-led Dolphins this week and drop to 1-4, it could be Jacoby Brissett’s final start. Maye provides much more upside as a passer than Jacoby, and some rushing upside to boot. The schedule after this week does include some daunting defensive matchups, but there are soft spots against the Jaguars, Rams and Colts that could be great opportunities to start Maye in fantasy.

WR Mason Tipton, NO (Wk. 5: @ KC): Tipton isn’t a player who should be put into lineups this week, but he’s worth mentioning for those of you in deep dynasty leagues because you may not realize the UDFA out of Yale has quietly emerged as the WR3 in New Orleans. It’s not a role that’s bringing a lot of target volume yet (just 4 targets in the last 2 weeks), but he’s logged route participation rates of 48% and 56% in the last 2 games. He’s worth stashing in the deepest dynasty leagues for the inevitable future hamstring injury that will hit Chris Olave or Rashid Shaheed. He doesn’t have the same upside as that pair, but there will be weeks where he sees more targets than he has so far.

TE Erick All, CIN (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): All continues to play second fiddle to Mike Gesicki on the Bengals’ depth chart – he’s logged less than a 40% route participation rate in every game he’s played in - but the ball comes his way when he’s on the field. All has quietly logged 3 straight top-20 PPR finishes and has been targeted on more than a third of his routes in that span. His limited playing time makes him more of a floor play than a ceiling one, but he’s already worth weekly starting consideration in 2-TE formats, and he could be a reasonable bye week fill in for deeper leagues as he faces a Baltimore defense that has allowed the 2^nd-most TE points per game.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.