Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Players I expect to perform at a higher level this week than other experts include: Tarik Cohen, Tyler Lockett, and Vance McDonald. Pay attention to these rankings throughout the week, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player/matchup analysis. Good luck in Week 12 and remember, you can tweet us @drinkfive with any of your lineup questions!

It's time to look forward to the next several weeks and pick out some busts. These are guys that all have very tough schedules coming up, and are top 15 at their position through 5 weeks. My suggestion to you is to get the trade discussion going in your league and try to unload some of these players to your league mates who may lack the foresight that you do.

Ryan Tannehill, QB-TEN – On the season, Ryan Tannehill has the 8^th most points per game, turning in his best performance just last night. Tannehill has had some easy matchups, so far all of his games have come against teams that are giving up top 12 points to opposing QBs. This bust has a lot to do with his matchups coming up, but I also want to point out that he is trailing behind many stat categories that he was doing very well last season. So far, his completion percentage, yards per attempt, yards per completion, and QB rating are all lower than last year’s numbers. Now, he has 6 straight games coming up against teams that are all very tough against opposing QBs. Five of those six teams are giving up the 10^th fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs or better. The worst team there is the Steelers, haven’t given up a 20 point game to opposing QBs so far this season, keeping all QBs below 300 yards and giving up no more than 2 TDs in each game. Yes, you’ve accidentally eaten the bye week on Tannehill at this point, but it’s time to find someone with better matchups. Sell high on Tannehill while you can this week.

Raheem Mostert, RB-SF – Mostert has been in and out of the lineup this season, just like in years past. Through his 3 games, Mostert is the 6^th best RB by points per game, averaging 18.1 points in his 3 games this year. The 49ers offense is falling apart and has not had any consistent QB play this season. He’s also trending down in points, though he hasn’t been a total disappointment just yet. However, his matchups coming up are going to get much tougher. Games against the Rams, Seahawks, and Patriots will be very tough to rack up big numbers. His best matchup coming up is against the Packers, but that game is on a Thursday night and I don’t like counting on anything that might happen on a Thursday in the NFL. Mostert still has a bye week coming up as well, so dump him for some value now before he starts slumping.

Tyler Lockett, WR-SEA – Tyler Locket has the 14^th most points per game among WRs this year, but that is boosted by his 3 TD week 3 game. Aside from that week, he has not reached 100 yards in a game. Lockett’s targets are falling - only 9 across the last 2 games after having at least 8 in each of the first 3 games. DK Metcalf is really starting to explode in the Seattle passing game and has clearly taken over as the number 1 target on the offense. Coming up, the Seahawks play Arizona twice, San Francisco and the Rams, all of whom are top 10 in locking down opposing WRs. Their best matchup comes against the Bills, who are still in the top half of the league. As with all of these suggestions, these players definitely have value, but their top-notch play is going to disappear. Trade Lockett away now while he’s considered a top 15 receiver. His bye week is coming, so maybe you can eat the bye week as a way to improve his trade value and get people to forget about DK’s recent offensive explosion.

Tyler Higbee, TE-LAR – Higbee is the 11^th TE in points per game, tied with Hunter Henry. Given the two, I’d much rather roll with Henry based on Highbee’s lower production in the last 3 weeks. Excluding his week 2 explosion of 3 TDs, Higbee hasn’t scored OR broken the 40-yard mark this year. He has only 17 targets through 5 games, just not enough volume to start him on a weekly basis over a generic replacement streaming option. His upcoming matchups are also quite rough. Over the next 8 weeks, only his matchup against the Bears in Week 7 comes against a team giving up top 10 points to opposing TEs. The rest of his matchups are far tougher, and let’s be honest, an 8-week stretch is far too long to hold out for a player to get better. Unloading Higbee now won’t likely net you too much value, but it’s a good idea to start looking for streaming options at TE and maybe try unloading him if he does put up a good game in Week 7.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

38.1 Fantasy Points

Good things do indeed come in small packages, as proven last night by Kyler Murray. His 38.1-point performance last night vaulted him to the top of the overall points list for all fantasy players this year. His per-game average is still a few points behind Russell Wilson, who has already had his bye week, but Kyler defeated Russell last night, so let’s focus on him today. Kyler’s consistency is remarkable – his lowest scoring week this season is a healthy 23.12 points, which is a floor that not even Wilson can match. The Cardinals now have a 5-2 record in the toughest division in football. He has at least 2 TDs in every game, and in 5 games he has 3 TDs. He’s putting up some great rushing numbers as well, with 437 total rushing yards he has the 11^th most rushing yards in the entire league. Murray has made great progress since last season, and his future is very bright. As he gets better, his interception rate will drop, his completion percentage will go up, and he will be a frequent participant in the playoffs, both in fantasy football and real football.

51.4 Points in 2 Games

Yesterday was the Jeff Wilson show again for the San Francisco 49ers. Wilson found the end zone 3 times and is the RB1 on the week with 31 fantasy points. In 2 games, this season, Weeks 3 and 7, he has 51.4 points. In the other 3 games he appeared in this season, he has a whopping 5.4 points total. It’s enough to give you whiplash. This just kind of shows that the best RB on the 49ers in the last few years seems to be whoever the backup is. Another player who’s going to give your fantasy team whiplash, though not quite as badly, is Tyler Lockett. Yesterday he put up the biggest single-game total that we’ve seen in fantasy football this year. 15 receptions, 200 receiving yards, and 3 TDs for a grand total of 45.5 points is truly an amazing performance. Weeks 3 and 7 were also Lockett’s good weeks, where he put up a total of 78 points. His two games between those weeks combined for just 11.3 points. Lockett, unlike Wilson, is at least an every-week starter that has to stay in your lineup for his absolutely absurd ceiling.

1 NFL Victory

Rookie QB Justin Herbert has been quite remarkable since he was called in to start Week 2 with just a few minutes' heads up. Sunday, he finally notched his first win and Herbert led all QBs with 38.48 fantasy points. This year, Herbert has 3 games over 300 passing yards and has at least 3 passing TDs each of the last 3 weeks. He’s now averaging just a hair under 30 points in each of his last 3 games. His schedule going forward isn’t too bad through week 16, with only 2 opponents not in the bottom half giving up fantasy points to opposing QBs. It also seems like regardless of Tyrod Taylor’s status, Herbert will remain the starter going forward. As for Herbert’s opponent yesterday, it seems that Minshew Mania has dwindled down to a golf clap at best after his paltry 14 for 27 performance netting just 173 yards passing. The Jaguars 1-6 record is going to have them thinking long and hard about the future of the team through their upcoming bye week. The only bright spot on the team has been rookie UDFA James Robinson, who is the RB6 on the season.

5 Go Ahead 4^th Quarter TDs

Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow combined for 5 go-ahead touchdowns in the 4^th quarter on Sunday, an NFL record. Both of the young QBs are playing very well this year for their respective teams. The two teams combined for 34 total points in the 4^th quarter, with a missed XP at the very end looming very large for the sports bettors out there. With his first 30+ point performance of his career, Joe Burrow moves up to the QB10 spot on the season. He broke the 400-yard mark for the first time, and also helped his own cause by scrambling for a TD to start the scoring on Sunday. Burrow also threw 3 TDs to 3 different players. On the other side, Baker Mayfield also cracked 30 fantasy points, but he sits as the QB21 on the year and is just an interesting streaming option for now. The Browns will continue to focus on running the ball first – they’re still 5^th in the league in rushing attempts. The impressive 5-2 Browns will host the Raiders next week, but will not have the services of resurgent WR Odell Beckham Jr, who is out for the season with an ACL tear.

24 Fantasy Points on Defense

For the second time this season, the Kansas City Chiefs have the top D/ST score in the league. A gaudy stat line of 1 kick return TD, 2 interceptions, 3 sacks, 2 fumbles recovered and 1 defensive TD contributed to their 24-point total on Sunday. This doubled up the 12 points that Patrick Mahomes put up this week. Not that Mahomes had a bad game, he just didn’t need to do much with his defense doing all the work. We also saw rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire find the end zone for the first time since Week 1. He’s clearly seeing Le’Veon Bell filling his entire rearview mirror. Side note – isn’t it awesome to see football in the snow? I freaking love it and the chaos that can sometimes ensue in it during a football game. Finally, you can add Denver to the list of teams (that include the Jets, Giants, and …Team) to fade when streaming a D/ST.