Well that was unexpected. Lots of major QB injuries and surprises in the NFL world this week. As Antonio Brown returns to fantasy production as a New England Patriot and Odell Beckham Jr. proves against the hapless Jets' secondary that he didn't just go to Cleveland to die, we're seeing quite a few new players rise up as well, like Raheem Mostert and Terry McLaurin. Best of luck on your decisions this week, and tune in to the podcast on Wednesday at 9pm CT with any lineup questions!
Pay attention to these rankings throughout the week, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player/matchup analysis. Good luck this season and remember, you can tweet us @drinkfive with any of your lineup questions!
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 1 was a surprising one from the rookie crop, especially for the pass catchers. Terry McLaurin, Hollywood Brown, and AJ Brown all cleared 100 receiving yards. DK Metcalf finished with 89 yards. Miles Boykin and Preston Williams each found the end zone, and KeeSean Johnson was targeted 10(!) times. TJ Hockenson set an NFL rookie record for a tight end debut with 131 receiving yards. Among the running backs Josh Jacobs lived up to his workhorse hype, but David Montgomery and Miles Sanders were week 1 disappointments. Perhaps the most anticipated rookie storyline, the Kyler Murray revolution, got off to a slow start on Sunday but finished with a flourish. There’s a lot to unpack as we look to week 2. Despite all the breakout week one games there is only one rookie that I would say to start with confidence this week. You don’t want to overreact to a small sample size. There are however a few that are really close to that level. Let’s dive in and take a look at who they are…
Rookies to Start:
RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 2: vs. KC): One thing was clear in Oakland’s impressive season opener – the backfield belongs to Josh Jacobs. He played 73% of the offensive snaps, handled 82% of the team’s rushing attempts, and got the only two carries inside the 5-yard line (both of which he converted into TDs). This week he’ll square off with a Kansas City defense that allowed the Jaguars to run for more than 5 yards per carry. The only concern with Jacobs is that his snaps could dip a little if the Raiders play from behind, which is likely against the Chiefs. Jalen Richard ran almost as many pass routes in 16% of the offensive snaps as Jacobs did in 73%, but this offense is built around Jacobs. He’ll still get plenty of work and is a weekly RB2 going forward.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 2: @Bal.): For 3 quarters last Sunday. Kyler and head coach Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid system looked like a huge flop, and then suddenly it didn’t. Murray put on a show in the 4th quarter and overtime leading the Cards back from 18 down to tie the Lions and topping 300 yards in the process. He should get a ton of passing volume each week, and with the Ravens favored by nearly 2 TDs that’s certain to be the case in week 2. Game script likely played a role in this, but the Cardinals played at the fastest pace of any team in the league and nearly three quarters of their offensive play calls were passes. Vegas projects the game script to be similar this week. That volume alone should make Murray a solid QB2 this week, and his rushing upside gives him a chance at more.
RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 2: @NYG): Singletary looks like my biggest preseason whiff so far. His athletic profile was beyond underwhelming, but he’s already showing he can be a dynamic receiver and somehow managed 70 rushing yards on just 4 carries without a run longer than 23 yards (runs of 23, 20, 15 and 12). Frank Gore had 11 carries to Singletary’s 4, but it was Singletary who played 70% of the offensive snaps. TJ Yeldon was nowhere to be seen. A more neutral game script might result in more snaps for Gore, but Singletary is the back you want in this offense. He gets a decent matchup this week against the Giants. There are still risks here. He only handled 9 touches in the opener, and we have no idea if he’ll handle any goal line work, but I like him ahead of Montgomery and Sanders this week in PPR leagues because his receiving role feels safe.
RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 2: @Den.): Monty’s usage was a huge disappointment in week 1. He was in on just 28 offensive snaps and touched the ball just 7 times while playing behind Mike Davis for much of the night. It’s probably not a coincidence that the Bears’ offense was a mess. Head coach Matt Nagy said afterward it will be important for them to get Montgomery more involved going forward, and I expect him to stick to his word on that. Denver allowed 113 scrimmage yards and 2 scores to Josh Jacobs last week, and while a lot of that was due to Oakland hammering the run, I think Montgomery has nice upside if he gets up into the 12-15 touch range. I think he gets there. He’s still more of a risky flex play than anything, but I would expect a better showing from him in week 2.
RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 2: @Atl.): The matchup for Sanders looks enticing on paper. The Falcons were eviscerated by Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison to the tune of 160 yards and 2 scores on 5.3 yards per carry, but I’m not sure Sanders has the workload to turn this into a big week. While he led the Eagles in snaps and touches last week, he’s clearly part of a 3-headed committee. There were a couple flashes of his talent last week on a 19-yard run and then a 21-yard TD that was called back on a(n erroneous) penalty, but outside of those two runs he totaled just 8 scrimmage yards on 10 carries and 2 targets. That’s not the kind of efficiency you hope for. It’s still a promising spot for Sanders, but he’s not more than a flex option right now.
WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 2: vs. Dal.): McLaurin is my favorite rookie WR play for this week, but he’s still not quite an auto-start. He was basically a full-time player – on the field for 93% of the team’s offensive snaps, but nearly 60% of his PPR points for the day came on one deep ball. It was still a positive sign to see Washington’s offense be willing to push the ball down the field, something they rarely did last year. Case Keenum had two completions of 40 yards or more and nearly had a third on a deep overthrow intended for an open McLaurin. Washington had just 6 completions of 40+ yards all of last season. McLaurin has solid upside this week against a Dallas defense that allowed Eli Manning to post a 95.5 passer rating and over 300 yards, but there is some baked in risk for a deep threat receiver with a 1-game track record. I think McLaurin is a borderline WR3 this week and should be a bargain in DFS slates with just a $3,800 price tag on DraftKings.
WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 2: @Pit.): Metcalf had an impressive debut posting a 4-89 line on 6 targets, and on paper he seems set up for another solid week. Tyler Lockett is battling a back injury that could keep him out of this one and the Seahawks are a 4-point underdog. He should draw Joe Haden in coverage. Haden was solid in 2018 but struggled in the opener as did much of the Steeler defense. The one thing that keeps me from confidently saying you should start Metcalf this week is the Seahawks’ play calling. They threw the ball just 20 times in the opener in a game where the margin was never more than 4 points, and Tyler Lockett was double-covered for much of the game which may have led to more targets for Metcalf. If Lockett plays in this one, I think he gets significantly more than 2 targets, and those targets have to come from somewhere. If Lockett sits, I think I’d feel pretty comfortable rolling Metcalf out as my WR3 in most formats.
WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 2: vs. Ari.): While it’s clear Baltimore wants to take some deep shots to Hollywood each week, he played just 14 snaps Sunday. The 4-147-2 stat line was fun, but he’s going to be a volatile weekly option. Brown does get a good matchup against a depleted Cardinals secondary this week that’s missing CBs Patrick Peterson and Robert Alford, so it’s not a bad roll of the dice to take a shot on another big game. The Lions connected on 7 pass plays of 20+ yards against these Cardinals last Sunday. Just know Hollywood comes with a very low floor.
TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 2: vs. LAC): I’m really tempted to tell you that you should be starting Hockenson this week, but I’m not quite ready to make that leap after one game. He’s clearly going to be one of the rare tight ends that produces as a rookie and will be a big part of the Lions’ game plan, but the team’s passing volume will be inconsistent and there are several other mouths to feed from that limited pie. Game script is projected to be close to neutral with the Chargers favored by 2.5 points. The Chargers ranked in the top half of the league last year at limiting tight ends and held the Colts trio of Doyle, Ebron and Mo-Alie Cox to just 3 catches for 31 yards. TJ is still just $3,000 in DraftKings and is a value there, but I wouldn’t play him over proven starters like Engram, OJ Howard, or Delanie Walker just yet.
Rookies to Sit:
RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 2: @Ari.): On paper this should be a good opportunity for Hill to get some extended run. The Ravens are a 13.5-point favorite, so the game script should be favorable for an already run-heavy team, but last Sunday was about as favorable a script as you’ll ever see and Hill got just 7 carries while Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards combined for 31. Bigger workloads will come for Hill eventually, but I’m not ready to count on him until I see him move ahead of Gus Edwards in the pecking order. He’s especially risky in PPR formats as Lamar Jackson didn’t have a single target to a running back in the opener.
RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 2: @GB): Mattison looked good in the opener with 9 carries for 49 yards but he didn’t touch the ball until the Vikings were already up 2 touchdowns. In fact, 5 of his 9 carries came with the team up by more than 20 points. Minnesota is a 3-point underdog in Green Bay against the Packers, who limited the Bears running backs to just 3 yards per carry. I don’t like Mattison’s chances of duplicating his output from last Sunday.
RB Darrell Henderson, LAR (Wk. 2: vs. NO): Henderson finished week one with 1 carry and zero targets on just 2 offensive snaps. It’s a far cry from the workload most were projecting for him as Malcolm Brown ran as the clear number 2 back. I’d expect Henderson’s usage to increase as the year goes on, but there is obviously no way to trust him in week 2 against the Saints.
RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 2: @Was.): Week 1 was a disappointing one for Tony Pollard. With Zeke expected to play limited snaps it was going to be his best opportunity to make an impression on the coaching staff and show that he should have a role moving forward. He finished the game with 13 carries for 24 yards (1.8 ypc) and zero targets in the passing game. It went about as poorly as it could have for him. He’s still likely the handcuff if anything happens to Elliott, but his case for standalone value took a big hit Sunday.
RB Darwin Thompson, KC (Wk. 2: @Oak.): Thompson’s first game confirmed our worst fears after the Shady McCoy trade. He’s going to have a hard time getting on the field early on this season. Thompson played just 2 snaps on Sunday. If your league has 12+ teams and you have the room on your roster, I’d still hold on to Thompson to see if his role grows over the next few weeks.
WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 2: vs. Ind.): Brown finished as the leading receiver for the Titans last Sunday despite playing only 43% of the offensive snaps and seeing just 4 targets come his way. His production isn’t going to be sustainable if that usage continues. The Titans are going to be run-heavy when they can, and they enter this weekend as a 3-point favorite. I’d prefer Brown this week over any of the other wide receivers in the ‘Rookies to Sit’ section but chasing last week’s points feels like a bad idea here.
WR Preston Williams, MIA (Wk. 2: vs. NE): Williams played less than half of the offensive snaps last week (42%) and is on probably the worst team in the NFL. It was nice to see him score a TD Sunday and there will be a lot of garbage time passing for the Phins this year, but I’d still like to see his playing time increase a bit before using him in lineups.
WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 2: @Ten.): It looks as though Campbell is going to be eased into the Colts offense this year. He played just 18 offensive snaps (29% share) in the opener and was targeted just once. His snaps may get an uptick from the injury to Devin Funchess, but Funchess plays much more on the perimeter than in the slot so those snaps are more likely to go to 2nd-year receiver Deon Cain. The Colts were run-heavy in week 1 despite trailing for most of the game. That doesn’t bode well for the fantasy outlook of a player with the limited snaps Campbell is seeing. It’ll take time for him to work his way into a bigger role.
WR Miles Boykin, BAL (Wk. 2: vs. Ari.): The matchup is a good one for Boykin, but his usage will likely prevent him from taking advantage of it. Boykin found the end zone against Miami, but he did it on his only target of the game. He played just 18 offensive snaps. It’s a low percentage bet to count on a productive game with such limited usage.
WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 2: @Atl.): JJ was out-snapped 10-5 by Mack Hollins in week one. That’s not enough run to be useful. He should be on the waiver wire in all but the deepest of redraft leagues for now.
TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Chi.): Fant had a great opportunity to impress in week 1, and he didn’t really take advantage. He posted a 2-29 line despite running a receiving route on 83% of Joe Flacco’s dropbacks in a game the Broncos trailed in all night. The Bears are a much tougher defense than the Raiders unit he faced on Monday. Only five teams allowed fewer receiving yards to tight ends than the Bears last year, and somehow Fant has the same price tag in DraftKings as TJ Hockenson.
TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 2: @NYG): Knox found himself on the field for 58% of the Bills’ offensive snaps with Tyler Kroft sidelined, but he was targeted just once. Kroft has an extensive injury history and isn’t guaranteed to be active in week 2. Knox is worth keeping an eye on in deeper dynasty leagues as the season progresses. He’s no more than a long shot TD dart throw this week though.
TE Foster Moreau, OAK (Wk. 2: vs. KC): Going into week one it appeared that Moreau’s road to fantasy relevance was road blocked by Darren Waller, but that didn’t stop him from finding his way onto the field for 55% of the Raiders’ offensive snaps and pulling in a couple catches. I have a feeling the snap count is an aberration caused by the Raiders playing with a positive game script all night. He’s a name to monitor in deep dynasty leagues, but he is in fact still road blocked by Waller for now.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 2: @Hou.): Minshew dazzled in his NFL debut despite physically looking like Uncle Rico’s football dreams come true. I doubt he continues to play quite as well as he did in week 1, but there are some positive signs. He was great in the face of pressure. He was pressured on about a third of his dropbacks, taking just one sack while throwing for 94 yards and 2 scores on those plays. Houston was shredded by Drew Brees in week one and managed to get just one sack in their first game after trading away Jadeveon Clowney. They may blitz a bit more this week to try and get more pressure, but Minshew has shown he can handle pressure. He should see decent passing volume again with the Jaguars a 9-point underdog, and that makes him a sneaky QB2 option this week.
WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 2: @Oak.): Hardman is an intriguing waiver wire pickup despite seeing just 1 target in the opener. He played 77% of the snaps in that opener thanks to the Tyreek Hill injury, and he should continue to be on the field a ton with Hill out for 4-6 weeks. Hardman is an explosive player in an explosive offense that faces off with the Raiders, Colts, Lions and Texans all within the next five weeks. He’s worth a flyer in most formats while Hill is on the shelf.
WR KeeSean Johnson, ARI (Wk. 2: @Bal.): Despite being drafted after both Andy Isabella and Hakeem Butler, it was Johnson who was on the field as nearly full-time player in week 1. The Cardinals truly did bring the Air Raid to the NFL, lining up with 4 wide receivers on about 75% of their snaps. Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald were locked into the two slot spots, and it was Johnson and Damiere Byrd on the outside. All 4 saw at least 7 targets, and Johnson saw 10. Michael Crabtree is expected to be active this week, so it’s likely he takes one of the outside spots, but I think it’s much more likely that it’s Byrd who is pushed to the bench than Johnson. Starting CB Jimmy Smith is out for Baltimore, and their other outside corner Marlon Humphrey will likely tangle with Crabtree. That makes KeeSean an interesting option in DFS tournaments or as a flex in deep leagues. He somehow has a lower price tag than Isabella on DraftKings ($3,100). There is some risk that Crabtree cuts into Johnson’s snaps rather than Byrd’s, but it’s a risk I can live with at his price tag.
WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 2: @Cin.): Samuel played a whopping 88% of the 49ers’ offensive snaps in week 1. I’m not quite sure what is going on with Dante Pettis. Was he limited to 2 snaps due to a flare up of his groin injury? Is he just not a starter on this team? Who knows, but it was jarring to see him behind Kendrick Bourne and Richie James in snap count this week. Deebo’s role seems safe for week 2, and with Tevin Coleman on the shelf there may be an opportunity for him to take some of the dump off targets that would normally go to Coleman. The Bengals’ secondary was shredded to the tune of a 134.6 passer rating by Russell Wilson last Sunday, and I’d expect the 49ers to have more passing volume than the Seahawks did. Samuel is in play as a flex in deeper PPR leagues.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and make sure to check before kickoffs to make sure there aren’t any surprise inactives. If you want to yell at me about anything written above or just have a general question, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully your team is off to a rip-roaring start to the season. I know plenty of rookies are. Hollywood Brown, Terry McLaurin and DK Metcalf turned one good game into 2, and Devin Singletary and Josh Jacobs were on their way there before suffering injuries. TJ Hockenson and AJ Brown took a step backwards in week 2, but Deebo Samuel and David Montgomery got going on Sunday. There will be even more rookies getting the chance to contribute in week 3 with injuries clearing the way for increased playing time for a few guys. We’re also going to see the changing of the guard in New York with Daniel Jones taking over for Eli much earlier in the season than expected. Which rookies should make it into your lineup? Let’s dive in and take a look…
Rookies to Start:
RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 3: @Was.): Montgomery saw a spike in usage week 2 as Tarik Cohen and Mike Davis both saw their playing time drop considerably. It’s still a committee, but Monty handled 18 carries and saw 3 targets, and more importantly handled all 5 carries inside the 5-yard line and scored his first touchdown. Washington has allowed nearly 250 rushing yards to opposing RBs through 2 weeks at a clip of 4.7 yards per carry. With the Bears favored to win this game, look for Montgomery to be very involved again and should be a solid RB2. The biggest concern here would be that Washington may stack the box a bit. They probably won’t have to respect Trubisky’s arm as much as they did with Wentz and Dak.
WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 3: @KC): Week 2 made it clear that Hollywood’s limited snaps in week 1 were due to the score getting out of hand early. He played 65% of the snaps and was targeted 13(!) times in a much more competitive week 2 contest. He and Mark Andrews are clearly the top targets in the passing game and the Ravens are a touchdown underdog this week against the Chiefs. They should be throwing at least a little more than usual and Kansas City doesn’t have a great pass defense. They’ve allowed over 260 yards per game through 2 weeks. Brown is a reasonable WR2 option in week 3.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 3: vs. Car.): We’ve seen Murray throw the ball 54 times in an overtime game where the Cards mostly played from behind, and then 40 times in a game that had a mostly neutral (maybe slightly negative) game script. The volume is going to be there every week, and at some point he’s going to make plays with his legs. The Carolina defense is no pushover this week, and Arizona might actually be playing from ahead if Kyle Allen gets the start at QB for Carolina, but I would still bet on Murray to throw for another 300 yards.
RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 3: @Min): Keep an eye on the injury report with Jacobs. He left last week’s game briefly with a groin issue but did return so he should be good to go this week. The bigger concern for Jacobs might be his lack of usage in the passing game. Jacobs has been targeted just once in two weeks, and the Raiders are an 8-point underdog against the Vikings. Gruden is still likely to force feed him the ball as long as the game is close, and as usual that volume will have him in play for a RB2 spot. He’s quickly proving to be a better play in non-PPR leagues than PPR formats. Minnesota did let Aaron Jones run for 116 yards and a TD last Sunday.
RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 3: vs. Cin.): Like Jacobs, you really need to follow the injury report with Singletary. He left last week’s game with a hamstring injury and wasn’t practicing yet this week as of Thursday. The match-up this week is a good one. Cincy has been shredded to the tune of 331 yards and 3 TDs on the ground in the first 2 weeks and Singletary has posted 127 yards on just 10 carries. If it sounds like he is going to be a full go, Singletary should be in your lineup. If he’s out, it’ll be a committee between Frank Gore on early downs and TJ Yeldon as the 3rd-down back.
RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 3: vs. Det.): I’d actually lean towards sitting Sanders this week, but there is upside against a Lions team that hasn’t defended the run well. Sanders has led the Eagles’ backfield in snaps and carries, but he isn’t seeing a ton of targets and hasn’t been very efficient with his opportunities. He’s shown a tendency to try and break the big play, committing to bounce the ball outside and not seeing cutback lanes to take what the blocking is giving him. Through 2 games 11 of Sanders’ 21 carries have gone for 2 yards or less. The Lions have coughed up 249 rushing yards and 5.2 yards per carry in the first 2 weeks so there is some hope, but I would look for better options if you have them.
WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 3: vs. Chi.): McLaurin has gotten off to a hot fantasy start to his rookie campaign and the underlying numbers behind that start have been fantastic. He’s played 91% of the offensive snaps, is getting 20% of the pass game targets, and his average target depth is 18 yards. He’s here to stay kids. The one thing holding me back from making him a clear start this week is the Bears’ defense. They’ve allowed the 7th-fewest WR points so far (9th-fewest in PPR) and may be the best overall defense in the league. I’d still lean toward playing Terry this week if you have him. Just know that this is probably the toughest matchup he’s faced so far. One positive for McLaurin this week is Chuck Pagano’s scheme that is typically heavy on blitzing which can make them susceptible to the big play. The Bears have already allowed 4 pass plays of 24+ yards in the first two weeks.
WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 3: vs. NO): Metcalf has clearly cemented himself as the number 2 receiver in Seattle behind Tyler Lockett, and he’s posted 2 quality performances thus far. He is going to be a huge problem for any defense that double-teams Lockett. The Seahawks’ run-heavy scheme lowers Metcalf’s weekly floor and with Drew Brees sidelined this could be a positive game script, but the Saints did allow the most WR fantasy points last year and the 6th-most in the league through the first 2 weeks. I like Metcalf to top 60 yards again and have a reasonable shot at finding pay-dirt.
WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 3: vs. Bal.): Mecole showed off the wheels that made people think he’d be an ideal Tyreek Hill replacement last weekend. He posted 4-61-1 on 7 targets and had a TD longer than 70 yards that was called back on a holding penalty. Every offensive player in this passing game has a chance to go off any given week, and Mecole’s game-breaking ability means they are going to scheme the ball to him with the opportunity to make plays. Hardman played more than half of his snaps in the slot, which means he’ll tangle mostly with 33-year old Brandon Carr rather than Marlon Humphrey. I like his chances of winning that match-up. Mecole is in the WR3/flex discussion and has a ton of upside this week.
TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 3: @Phi.): Hockenson’s dazzling debut did not turn into a repeat performance in week 2, but his playing time was similar. The Lions aren’t going to be a high-volume passing attack when they can help it, and that is going to make Hock a volatile option weekly. He’s certainly in play this week if you’re searching for a replacement for Njoku, are afraid of trusting OJ Howard again, or just don’t have a legit TE1, but there is a boom-or-bust element here. The Eagles aren’t a great TE match-up. They struggled a little with Vernon Davis and Austin Hooper in the first two weeks but allowed the 4th fewest TE points per game last season. If you have safer options than Hock I’d use them.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 3: @TB): The Giants may get Sterling Shepard back this week, but the receiver group overall is still pretty bad and Todd Bowles’ Tampa defense hasn’t made life easy on opposing QBs so far. They’ve allowed the 7th lowest passer rating in the league to opposing QBs through 2 games and coughed up just 1 passing touchdowns. Jones has the rushing ability to salvage a QB2 day even if he doesn’t throw it well, but I’d like to see him succeed against a first-string defense before throwing him out there in lineups, even 2QB ones.
QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 3: vs. Ten.): The Jaguars called a surprisingly pass-heavy game plan in week 2 in a game that was pretty close throughout, but the Jaguars have played at the slowest pace in the NFL through 2 weeks. That caps Minshew’s weekly ceiling, especially facing off with a Titans team that also likes to play at a deliberate pace. The Jaguars implied total is less than 20 points. Minshew’s rushing output was a nice bonus this week, but it’s not something he has a history of doing. He totaled just 119 rushing yards in 13 games at WSU last year. If forced to choose between Jones and Minshew this week, I’d go with Jones.
RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 3: @KC): Mark Ingram had a bit of an injury scare last Sunday but was able to return to action and should be fine for this week’s showdown with Kansas City. I believe Hill will eventually work his way into a bigger role, but I need to at least see him operating in front of Gus Edwards or being utilized more in the passing game before I consider using him in lineups.
RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 3: vs. Oak.): Mattison has played on just 20% of the Vikings offensive snaps and handled just 13 carries through 2 weeks. There is a chance at some additional opportunities for him this week with the Vikes favored by just over a touchdown, but the Raiders have done a good job of stuffing the run so far allowing just 63 rush yards per game on 2.8 yards per carry. He’s not a great option even if he gets a few extra carries.
WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 3: @Jax.): Brown seems like an interesting option with Jalen Ramsey likely to follow Corey Davis around in what should be Ramsey’s final game as a Jaguar, but the Jaguars play an inordinate amount of zone coverage and negate the effect of a lock-down shadow corner. It’s probably a big part of why Ramsey wants out of Jacksonville. I like Brown’s game, but the Titans just don’t throw enough to support their wide receivers as weekly options right now. None of their pass catchers outside of Delanie Walker are more than a dart throw this week.
WR Miles Boykin, BAL (Wk. 3: @KC): The Ravens may be throwing more than usual in a game where they are a touchdown underdog and facing a less than stellar secondary, but the targets just haven’t been there for Boykin. I’d rather he have a breakout game from my bench or the waiver wire than post another 1-catch game in the lineup.
WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 3: @SF): Johnson has been at least somewhat involved through the first two weeks, and there’s always the narrative that the second string WR and second-string QB will have an instant connection. That seemed to hold true last Sunday with Johnson being the target on 3 of Mason Rudolph’s 19 attempts last week, but I wouldn’t want to bet on him having a big game this week. There are too many receivers ahead of him in the pecking order and I’d expect the Steelers to try to run a bit more to take pressure off Rudolph in his first start.
WR KeeSean Johnson, ARI (Wk. 3: vs. Car.): Unfortunately for Johnson, newly activated Michael Crabtree’s snaps did come at his expense rather than Damiere Byrd’s. Byrd, Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk are all pretty much every-down players, but Johnson and Crabtree are basically splitting the 4th WR role for now. I’d be fine with dropping Johnson in most formats at this point.
WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 3: vs. Atl.): Campbell scored his first touchdown last week but has now played just 18 snaps in each of the first 2 contests and continues to run behind Chester Rogers in the slot. I expect that his playing time will increase as the season goes along but he isn’t playing enough right now to be trusted in your weekly lineups.
TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 3: @GB): Fant continues to play significantly more snaps that Jeff Heuerman, but Huerman is on the field just enough to keep Fant from being a borderline TE1. I assure you the Broncos don’t want to throw the ball 40 times a game like they have in the past 2 weeks, but I don’t know that they’ll be able to avoid it this week at Lambeau. With that said, 4 targets just isn’t going to cut it for Fant against a defense that has allowed just 5 catches for 14 yards to opposing tight ends through 2 weeks.
TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 3: vs. Cin.): Knox has been operating as the lead guy in the Bills TE committee, but he hasn’t seen a ton of targets and the Bengals have allowed a total of 6 catches and 82 yards to opposing tight ends through 2 games. If you’re searching for a fill-in tight end due to injury this week, Knox isn’t a great place to look.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes & Cheap DFS Options:
RB Darwin Thompson, KC (Wk. 3: vs. Bal.): Thompson is likely to be thrust into action this week with both LeSean McCoy and Damien Williams ailing. McCoy has returned to limited practice, but Williams still isn’t practicing as of Thursday and Thompson would be the first guy in line to fill his receiving role. Williams has 22 carries and 11 targets through 2 games. If Thompson sees close to the same workload he’ll be a great cheap option in DFS tournaments (costs the minimum in DraftKings) and a great desperation flex in deeper leagues. Double-digit points or close to it in PPR formats should be the expectation for Darwin if Williams sits.
RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 3: vs. Mia.): The Miami Dolphins have lost by a combined 92 points through 2 games and are a whopping 3-touchdown underdog against the Cowboys this week. With Dallas’s new souped up offense under Kellen Moore this one could get ugly in a hurry. There won’t be much reason to risk Zeke’s health into the 2nd half which should mean a lot of Tony Pollard. If you need an insurance policy for Damien Williams or Devin Singletary or Josh Jacobs in deep leagues, Pollard is a guy to keep in mind. He’s likely going to get extended run in this one.
RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 3: @Phi.): I mention Johnson mostly as a stash for this week. I wouldn’t trust running him out there in lineups this week, but with the release of CJ Anderson Ty seems poised to step into a bigger role in the offense. The Lions have been hesitant to turn Kerryon into a full-on workhorse – he hasn’t played 60% of the snaps in either game this year, so Johnson is a guy that you should be adding in most formats in case he makes the most of his increased opportunity.
WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 3: vs. Det.): DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery are both going to be out in week 3 (and probably week 4 as well), and JJAW become nearly a full-time player in their absence last Sunday. Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz are likely to lead the way in targets this week for Philly, but no one is a better bet to find the end zone than JJ. Darius Slay has been deployed in the slot on occasion before and I would expect him to spend some time covering Agholor, which should mean good things for Arcega-Whiteside. He and teammate Mack Hollins are both worth considering if you’re hurting for a wide receiver in a deep league or looking for a cheap DFS tournament play.
WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 3: vs. Pit.): It’s hard to put too much confidence in Deebo with the way the 49ers have shuffled their receivers in and out of the lineup. No receiver played more than 51% of the snaps last week. Some of that can be attributed to the blowout score, but Samuel played 88% of the snaps in week one and just 40% in week 2 yet was still on the field and getting touches in the 4th quarter with a 31-point lead. While sorting out the passing game pecking order after Kittle seems messy, I do think that Deebo is one of the guys that the 49ers will get into the game plan every week. He is a difference maker with the ball in his hands and Kyle Shanahan has found ways to use him running the ball and catching it. The Steelers are notorious for not adjusting their alignment to match up effectively in the slot, and I think we’re going to see Samuel move around quite a bit to take advantage of that. I’d only be considering Deebo in deeper leagues, but the upside is there for a WR3 day again.
WR Preston Williams, MIA (Wk. 3: @Dal.): The Dolphins are pretty much guaranteed to be in a negative game script and throwing again as a 3-touchdown underdog this week. Williams saw his playing time jump up in week 2, and he had a nice rapport with Josh Rosen in preseason. With Rosen taking over as the starter this week, there is some decent upside in the sheer amount of garbage time there should be. Williams is a reasonable option in really deep leagues if you’re struggling to find a flex.
WR Hunter Renfrow, OAK (Wk. 3: @Min.): Tyrell Williams is fighting through a hip pointer this week and will draw the shadow coverage of one of the best shutdown corners in the game in Xavier Rhodes. Renfrow played 75% of the snaps last week in a negative game script and was targeted 8 times. The Vikings are 8-point favorites in this game so the situation should be similar. I’d expect Renfrow to see about 8 targets again and is a decent option in really deep PPR formats.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you make some of your tough lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury updates throughout the week. There are plenty of questionable players to monitor and make sure you aren’t playing an inactive player. If you want to yell at me about anything written above or have any specific questions, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! I hope you managed to avoid any landmines in your lineups last week and didn’t run into anyone starting Aaron Rodgers, Marvin Jones or Chase Edmonds. It was a wild week 7, probably the most unpredictable week of the season so far. A number of players who seemed to be in prime matchups to set the world on fire last week fell flat instead – Kyler Murray, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz. Daniel Jones, David Johnson, Phillip Lindsay, Devin Singletary, Larry Fitzgerald, Kenny Golladay, Michael Gallup, Zach Ertz, Evan Engram. It was a messy week to be sure, but it’s a good time for an important etiquette reminder:
If you’re upset about the performance of a player on your fantasy team, don’t go to their social media pages to let them know about it. The players and coaches do not and should not care about your fantasy teams. The players don’t owe you anything if they have a poor fantasy day. They get paid to help their team win, not yours. If their performance cost their own team a win, I assure you they feel worse about it than you do. There is no reason to rub that in.
With that PSA out of the way, let’s take a look at what to expect from the rookies in week 8…
Rookies to Start:
RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 8: @Hou.): Keep a close eye on the injury report with Jacobs. Head coach Jon Gruden claims that he is truly ‘questionable’ for this week’s game with a shoulder injury despite returning to the game last week after suffering it. If he does play, he should be in your lineups unless you have multiple studs ahead of him. Jacobs is the RB12 on the year in terms of points per game and has at least 79 rushing yards in all but one contest. This matchup isn’t an ideal one. The Texans allow the 8th-fewest RB points per game on the year and rank 5th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, but the Raiders’ commitment to getting Jacobs the football should make him a fine RB2 again this week if he’s able to suit up.
WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 8: @Min.): There was a time when Xavier Rhodes was a corner to be feared, but so far this year that hasn’t been the case. Rhodes has graded as just the 88th-best corner in the league according to Pro Football Focus and the Vikings have given up the 10th-most wide receiver points per game. They have been carved up by several perimeter receivers so far: Davante Adams (7-106), Allen Robinson (7-77), Darius Slayton (4-62-1), Alshon Jeffrey (10-76-1), and Marvin Jones (10-93-4). Fire up McLaurin this week as a WR2 and completely wipe the monsoon game last weekend from your memory.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 8: @NO): Coming off his worst passing game of the season, Murray gets to face a red-hot Saints defense that has held opposing QBs to just 13 fantasy points per game over the past 4 weeks. That would rank as the 5th-best mark in the league if it were over the whole season. The Saints did show some vulnerability against running QBs early in the year, giving up rushing lines of 4-40-1 to Deshaun Watson and 7-51-2 to Russell Wilson. The Cardinals have an implied total just below 20 points this week, so Vegas doesn’t see a ton of upside for their offense as a whole. If I have a solid QB1 on my roster I’d probably be starting them over Murray this week.
QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): Aside from a forgettable performance in week 6 against the Saints, Minshew has been a dependable QB2 every week with at least 16 points in every other game. This week’s matchup probably limits his upside a bit. There are 9 teams that average giving up more fantasy points to the QB than the Jets allowed in their worst outing of the year. Despite the matchup Gardner should be fine as a QB2 once again this week. The Jets rank just 17th in pass defense DVOA despite how well they’ve limited QBs, so they aren’t likely to completely shut the mustachioed gunslinger down. With every solid outing he moves closer to keeping the job when Nick Foles returns.
RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 8: vs. LAC): I’m sure if you got burned by Montgomery last week you’re unlikely to go back to that well again, but he was more of a victim of a poor game plan than his own poor performance. His first career fumble didn’t help him any, but he didn’t get his first carry of the game until the second half. That’s inexcusable for Matt Nagy and he knows it, saying after the game “I know we have to run the ball more. I’m not an idiot.” As comical as that quote is, it convinces me the Bears are going to get the ball to Monty much earlier and much more often this week. The Chargers are a porous run defense. They rank 24th in run defense DVOA and have allowed 5 of the 7 lead backs they’ve faced to top 15 fantasy points (half PPR scoring). As we’ve seen this year Montgomery is never a sure thing, but I like his chances of posting a solid fantasy game this week.
RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 8: vs. NYG): With Kerryon Johnson hitting injured reserve this week, Ty Johnson became the biggest priority waiver claim of the week. The Lions did sign Paul Perkins and could still bring in another runner (possibly CJ Anderson who opened the year with the team), but with just Johnson and JD McKissic available last week Johnson out-snapped JD 49-19 and out-touched him 14-7. It appears Johnson will be the lead back of the committee in the immediate future, and this week he faces a Giants team that has allowed the 5th-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. The Lions are a touchdown favorite, so they should be able to keep running. Johnson has RB2 upside this week in a great matchup. Keep on eye on team updates and make sure Perkins won’t have a bigger role than expected before pulling the trigger on Johnson.
WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 8: @Atl.): Metcalf has lived on the borderline this season. He’s made several big plays but limited overall volume for Seattle’s passing attack has prevented DK from becoming a weekly fantasy starter. Metcalf has finished in the top 30 receivers in PPR scoring 3 times this year but has not finished in the top 24 yet. Could this be the week? It’s definitely possible. The Falcons have been among the worst defenses in the league. They rank 31st in pass defense DVOA and have coughed up the 5th-most wide receiver points per game. They’re also tied for the 3rd-most pass plays of 20+ yards allowed, which plays into Metcalf’s strengths as a deep threat. The upside is there, but his limited volume and 50% catch rate on the year will continue to cap his ceiling for the time being. He’s worth WR3 consideration this week.
WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 8: vs. Mia.): The return of Mason Rudolph and a matchup with the sad sack Dolphins make Johnson a reasonable streamer this week if you’re looking for a fill-in wide receiver. Johnson and Juju Smith-Schuster have the same 21.3% target share with Rudolph at QB and the Dolphins have allowed 11 WR touchdowns in just 6 games. They’ve also given up the 9th-most WR points per game and rank dead last in pass defense DVOA. The points allowed would be even worse if they weren’t frequently getting blown out. Johnson probably shouldn’t be that much behind Juju in the WR rankings this week.
TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 8: vs. NYG): The volume and overall production hasn’t exactly been there for Hockenson so far outside of week 1, and this looks like a tough matchup on paper, but I feel good about Hockenson’s chances of getting in the end zone in this one. The Giants have allowed the 5th-fewest TE points per game on the year, but they’ve faced just about the least impressive lineup of tight ends imaginable so far. After giving up two scores to the Cowboys’ tight ends in week 1, they’ve faced off with Dawson Knox, OJ Howard, Jeremy Sprinkle, Kyle Rudolph, Ryan Izzo and Charles Clay. They gave up 3-66 to Howard, his best fantasy game of the year. Marvin Jones’ 4-TD outburst last week should draw more attention his way in the red zone, and the Lions have an implied total of more than 28 points and don’t have Kerryon to give the ball to at the goal line. We’ve seen the floor isn’t high for TJ, but the TE position is bad when you get outside the top 8 or so options. He’s worth streamer consideration this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 8: @Det.): I’ve expected good things from Jones a couple of times recently, and he hasn’t delivered since his sensational debut against the Bucs. In 4 games since, we’ve seen lackluster performances in good matchups and bad, and in situations where his weapons were healthy and where they weren’t healthy. The Lions are typically a defense to target with QBs, allowing multiple scores in 4 of 6 games and 280+ yards passing in 5 of 6, but Jones hasn’t reached even 13 fantasy points since his debut. I wouldn’t count on everything suddenly clicking this week and would look elsewhere even for a QB2.
RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 8: vs. Phi.): I wouldn’t be thrilled to take my chances with Singletary this week. The Eagles have been a dominant run defense for much of the year. Ezekiel Elliott broke through against them on Sunday night for a big game, but he was the first starting running back all year to average 3 yards per carry or better against Philly. They also haven’t allowed a single receiving score to an opposing back this year. There is a potential path to a decent game for Singletary. The Eagles have let two change of pace RB2s have success against them (Ito Smith 4-32, and Alexander Mattison 14-63), and they have allowed 4 different backs to post 6+ catches in just 7 games. If the Bills fall behind Singletary would be in line for a healthy receiving line. For what it’s worth, the Bills are a point and a half favorite in this game. I’d be inclined to think of Singletary as closer to borderline in PPR formats, and more of a guy to bench in non-PPR.
RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 8: @Buf.): On the other side of the Bills-Eagles tilt, Sanders has just 9 rushing attempts and 6 targets in the past 2 games. He’s clearly taken a back seat to Jordan Howard in the running game and Howard gets all the carries in close, so Sanders needs to make his biggest impact in the passing game. Thus far the Bills have only allowed 1 running back to reach 40 receiving yards (James White), and haven’t allowed a single RB receiving score. A long touchdown would give you the production you’re hoping for from Miles, but I would be looking for a safer bet for my lineups.
WR Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 8: vs. Cle.): Despite Josh Gordon getting placed on injured reserve, it was not a good week for Meyers’ rest-of-season outlook. The Pats have traded for Mohamed Sanu and designated N’Keal Harry to return from IR. Harry can’t return until week 9 at the earliest, but Sanu can suit up this week. It’s hard to say what the WR rotation will look like this week. Sanu muddies things up enough that it’s tough to trust Meyers in any lineups. He has played well enough to earn more opportunity, catching all 9 of his targets over the past 2 weeks for 101 yards. I’m just not sure the playing time will continue to be there for him. He played just 51% of the offensive snaps last week without Sanu on the roster.
WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 8: vs. GB): Tyreek Hill was back to being a full-time player in week 7, and Hardman saw his lowest snap share of the season as a result. He also lost his starting QB for the time being which will cap the entire offense’s upside for the immediate future. Even if Sammy Watkins sits again, Hardman is no more than a big play dart throw with Matt Moore at QB.
WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 8: @Det.): Slayton saw his targets drop dramatically with the Giants’ other primary weapons back. Slayton still worked as a full-time player, but with Engram and Saquon back in the lineup he was targeted just twice despite Daniel Jones throwing 35 times. The Lions are just a middling defense against wide receivers, but Slayton will be competing for scraps with Bennie Fowler and Cody Latimer after Tate, Engram and Barkley get theirs.
WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): Samuel’s status for this week is still up in the air, but his status in your lineup shouldn’t be. Dante Pettis has led the WR group in snaps in each of the last 3 weeks, and the Manny Sanders trade should push Samuel down to fighting for snaps with Marquise Goodwin and Kendrick Bourne each week. He’s droppable in most season-long leagues. Sanders likely won’t need much ramp up time to learn the offense in San Francisco since his OC in Denver had spent 3 of the past 4 years coaching on Kyle Shanahan’s staff.
WRs Keelan Doss & Hunter Renfrow, OAK (Wk. 8: @Hou.): Renfrow is an easy call to sit since he still hasn’t topped 4 catches and 30 yards in a game this year. Doss had a nice day Sunday with Tyrell Williams ailing, posting a 3-54 line on just 29 offensive snaps. The matchup this week is decent with Houston allowing the 4th-most WR points per game, but Tyrell is fully expected to return this week and there just isn’t enough volume to go around after Tyrell and Waller to trust any other Raiders’ pass catcher in fantasy.
WRs KeeSean Johnson & Andy Isabella, ARI (Wk. 8: @NO): Isabella collected his first 2 catches of the year last Sunday, but he and Johnson combined for just 15 snaps and Christian Kirk wasn’t even active. Kirk may return this week, but the rookie duo has given way to Damiere Byrd and Trent Sherfield for the time being. There isn’t any reason to look at them for your lineups even against a Saints team that allows the 7th-most WR points per game.
WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 8: vs. Den.): It sounds like Campbell may return this week from an abdominal injury, but he just hasn’t done enough so far this year to warrant consideration. He faces a Denver defense that has allowed the 7th-fewest WR points per game, and Campbell has totaled just 10 catches on 13 targets through 5 games played and averages just 6.2 yards per catch. I need to see more from him before I consider him in lineups.
TE Irv Smith Jr, MIN (Wk. 8: vs. Was.): With Adam Thielen sidelined this week, the Vikings will have to look elsewhere in the passing game. Smith is coming off his best game as a pro with season-highs of 41 snaps, 5 catches and 60 yards. The absence of Thielen could result in an uptick in targets for Irv this week, but Washington has kept tight ends in check for the most part. They haven’t let any tight end reach 60 yards this season and they’ve faced Zach Ertz, Evan Engram and George Kittle. There is another Viking rookie pass catcher that I would be more inclined to look to this week. You can read more about him in the Sleeper section below. I’d look for other streaming options if considering Smith this week.
TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 8: @Ind.): Fant gets a favorable matchup this week against a Colts’ defense that has allowed the 6th-most tight end points per game, but he just hasn’t been productive enough to trust in lineups at this point. He’s reached 8 PPR points just once all year and has just 4 catches for 29 yards in the last 3 games combined. There are some positives for Fant. He set a season-high with 5 targets last week and could see increased opportunity with Emmanuel Sanders out of the picture, but that’s not enough for me to justify using him even in a seemingly good matchup. The Colts have allowed 4 tight ends to top 50 receiving yards this year, and all 4 were quality players (Kelce, Waller, Hooper and Hunter Henry).
TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 8: vs. Phi.): The Eagles are allowing just 41 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends, and if you throw out Vernon Davis’s ridiculous hurdling touchdown from week 1 that number drops below 35 yards per game. Knox has seen his targets slowly go up as the season has gone on, but over his past two games he’s turned a total of 10 targets into just 4 catches for 34 yards. This is unlikely to be the week he gets it going again.
TE Foster Moreau, OAK (Wk. 8: @Hou.): Moreau continues to get a decent amount of playing time but will also continue to be a low upside option as long as Darren Waller is around. He’s been targeted 11 times in the last 3 games and turned them into 9-100-2 over that span. He’d need another touchdown this week to return value and the Texans have only allowed one to the tight end position on the season. Houston also has allowed the 7th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position.
TE Josh Oliver, JAX (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): Despite injuries to Geoff Swaim and James O’Shaughnessy in recent weeks, Oliver still served as the TE3 for the Jaguars last week behind Seth DeValve and Ben Koyack. He was not targeted in 25 snaps, and this week faces a defense that has allowed the 5th-fewest tight end points per game. There is no reason to expect production from the San Jose State product this week.
Rookies on byes in week 8: RB Justice Hill, BAL, RB Tony Pollard, DAL, WR Marquise Brown, BAL, WR Miles Boykin, BAL
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Darrell Henderson, LAR (Wk. 8: vs. Cin.): Malcolm Brown will be sidelined again this week, and the Rams are a 13-point favorite against the hapless Bengals, who allow the most RB fantasy points per game. Todd Gurley should still work as the lead back, but Henderson will likely wind up in the 12-15 touch range if the game goes as expected. Against Cincinnati that’s enough work to put a running back firmly on the flex radar. He’s a great upside option now that Brown has been officially ruled out.
RB Benny Snell, PIT (Wk. 8: vs. Mia.): The Steelers will be without Jaylen Samuels in this one, and they are a heavy favorite against the league-worst Dolphins. James Conner should get plenty of work early, but the Pittsburgh RB2 role has averaged more than 13 touches per game over the last 3. Some of that is skewed by Conner’s injury against the Chargers, but I can’t imagine the Steelers won’t turn to Snell once they get control of the game. Snell impressed ahead of the team’s bye with 75 yards on 17 carries against the Bolts. The Dolphins rank dead last in the NFL in run defense DVOA and give up the 2nd-most RB points per game. Snell could be in play as a flex option for deeper leagues.
RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 8: vs. Was.): Week 7 was the first time all season that Mattison was held below 49 yards in a Minnesota win, but he’s still had at least 7 carries in each. This week is the easiest to predict win for the Vikings that they’ll have had thus far (assuming they get it). Minnesota is favored by more than 2 touchdowns, so there is a great chance at a runaway victory. That means extended run for Mattison. Washington is a below average run defense, ranking 18th in run defense DVOA. Mattison is best used in deeper non-PPR leagues since he’ll give you nothing in the passing game, but he’s a good bet for 50+ yards and a possible garbage time score this week.
WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 8: vs. TB): For at least one week, Ryan Tannehill seemed to be just what the doctor ordered to fix the Titans’ broken passing game. Corey Davis was the biggest beneficiary of the change but Brown set season-highs with 8 targets and 6 catches. This week he faces a Tampa defense that has allowed 5 different wide receivers to reach 20 fantasy points (half-PPR) in the past 4 games. We’ve already seen Brown be a DFS week winner when he went 3-94-2 in week 4 against Atlanta. The Bucs give up more WR points per game than Atlanta does. At just $4,100 in DraftKings this is another good week to take a shot on Brown in GPP tournaments.
WR Olabisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 8: vs. Was.): The Vikings are without Adam Thielen on Thursday night, so Johnson should slot in as the Vikings’ number 2 wide receiver. Washington has been bad against WRs overall, allowing the 9th-most points per game to the position, but oddly they rank 1st in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing number 1 wide receiver and dead last in DVOA on throws to the number 2 receiver. The Vikings have a healthy implied total of 29 points, and Johnson was targeted 8 times last week. I like him if you’re scouring the waiver wire for a fill in WR in deep leagues. He’ll have to produce his points before the Vikes put the game out of reach, but that hasn’t been a problem for most teams against Washington.
WR Preston Williams, MIA (Wk. 8: @Pit.): Williams posted a surprisingly strong performance last week against the stingy Bills secondary, posting 6-82 on 8 targets. He did lose a fumble, but this was the 4th time in 6 games that Williams has either found the end zone or topped 60 yards. It was nice to see him perform well with Fitzpatrick at QB. DeVante Parker has been visiting the end zone more frequently than Williams with touchdowns in 3 straight, but that may just mean Williams is due for one. The Steelers are a decent pass defense, ranking 10th in pass defense DVOA, but they are just a middling defense when it comes to limiting WR points (18th most WR points allowed). Williams is an option in the deepest of leagues and as a DFS dart throw.
WR Scotty Miller, TB (Wk. 8: @Ten.): A lot of folks may have forgotten about Miller since Tampa was on a bye last week, but against Carolina in London Miller played 60% of the Bucs’ offensive snaps and was targeted 7 times. He isn’t a guy I would roll out in lineups this week against a Titans team that allows the 6th-fewest WR points per game, but he is worth stashing in deeper leagues in case that usage continues. He could eventually be the Adam Humphries replacement the Tampa offense has been missing. At the bare minimum cost on DraftKings, there is an argument to be made for him in GPP tournaments. The Titans don’t give up a ton of WR points, but they rank just 23rd in pass defense DVOA.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with the tougher lineup decisions you have involving the rookies. Keep an eye on the injury report throughout the week to make sure there are no big changes that affect your fantasy team. If you want to yell at me about anything written above or have any specific questions, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.