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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! For most of you…this week is the regular season finale. You should have a really good idea of what you need to do to make the playoffs if you’re fighting for a spot. If you need to win and make up some points, it might be worth taking some swings on some riskier plays. If you just need a win, I wouldn’t get too cute. Make sure you know what you need to do when setting your lineups. Each week there have been more and more rookies becoming fantasy relevant. It’s hard to imagine you’re in a matchup that doesn’t involve any rookies this week. Let’s dive in and look at what to expect this week…

Rookies to Start:

RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 13: vs. Chi.): Of course you’re not going to sit Saquon in season-long leagues, but he isn’t exactly the chalk play in DFS cash games. Only New England, Detroit and Miami have managed to tally 20 RB points in a game against the Bears this season (all point totals and rankings are based on PPR scoring). The Bears have been a little vulnerable to receiving backs, allowing the 8^th-most receptions to the position on the year, but they’ve given up fewer than 70 RB rushing yards in 8 out of 11 contests on the year. Double-digit points for Barkley are likely a given, but don’t count on a ceiling week from the rookie.

RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 13: @Cin.): How bad are the Bengals against running backs this year? They’ve been burned by both ground and air. Cincy has given up the 4^th-most rushing yards and 5^th-most TDs on the ground, and the 7^th-most receiving yards and are tied for the most TDs allowed by air. They also rank 28^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Lindsay has been one of the best fantasy backs in the league this year despite being underutilized, and he should be a locked in RB1 this week.

RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 13: @Hou.): The Texans are a tough matchup, ranking 2^nd in run defense DVOA and allowing the 10^th-fewest RB points per game, but Nick Chubb has been red hot since the coaching change in Cleveland. He’s averaged 26.6 points per game in the past 3 contests since the switch. You can’t sit a guy producing like that.

RB Gus Edwards, BAL (Wk. 13: @Atl.): The Falcons have been getting shredded by backs catching passes out of the backfield all year, and lately they’ve started getting beat up by them on the ground as well. Atlanta has given up 151 rushing yards per game to backs over the past 3 games, and they rank 29^th in run defense DVOA. Edwards has exploded onto the scene in Baltimore, topping 100 yards on the ground in each of his first 2 outings while averaging a robust 5.8 yards per carry. He hasn’t done anything as a receiver, but he’s a solid RB2 this week in most formats, and a solid flex play even in PPR leagues. He did pop up on the injury report with a missed practice Wednesday, but it’s likely nothing. I’d expect him, to play. If he sits, Ty Montgomery is a sneaky play this week.

RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 13: vs. Was.): Adams looks like he’s for real so far, and the Eagles appear to be treating him as their feature back. He carried the ball 22 times in week 12, and should be in store for a plenty more work this week. Washington has allowed more than 125 RB rush yards in 3 of their past 4 contests, and rank 26^th in run defense DVOA. Adams looks like a strong RB2 option this week.

WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 13: @TB): DJ Moore was a bit let down the last time he faced the Buccaneers, but I have faith that he doesn’t repeat that dud this time around. Both Devin Funchess and Curtis Samuel were held out of practice Wednesday with injuries. If both are out, Moore and Christian McCaffrey will likely be the beneficiaries. The Bucs have allowed the 4^th-most WR points per game, and Moore has tallied 15-248-1 over the past 2 weeks. He should be a strong WR2 option this week.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 13: @Hou.): The Texans allow just the 7^th-fewest QB points per game, but Baker has been dealing since the regime change and Houston managed to let Marcus Mariota go 22/23 for 302 yards and 2 scores on Monday night. Mayfield has posted 13 touchdowns and just 2 turnovers in his past 5 starts. He’ll likely finish as a back-end QB1 this week in most leagues.

QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (Wk. 13: @Atl.): The Falcons’ banged up defense has been bad on all levels this season, and they’ve given up the 2^nd-most QB points per game on the year. With no byes this week, Lamar’s lack of passing volume likely makes him a low-end QB1 at best this week, but his rushing upside makes him a fun streamer and DFS play.

RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 13 vs. Min.): Michel has been fantastic whenever he’s been healthy, but he gets a tough matchup this week. You should still probably start him if you’ve got him, but the Vikings rank 4^th in run defense DVOA, have allowed just 3 RB rushing scores all year, and have coughed up 100 rushing yards to the position just once. Volume should carry Michel through, but he’s certainly not an ideal DFS cash game play.

RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 13: vs. LAR): Johnson’s status is still very up in the air for this week. I’d struggle to sit him if he’s healthy. Kerryon has tallied 15+ fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 outings, but he could see his volume limited if he isn’t 100% this week. The Lions likely see no need to rush him back with their playoff hopes basically dead. The Rams do rank 29^th in run defense DVOA, so there is upside for Kerryon to be a solid flex play, but the Rams are heavy favorites and will probably force Detroit into a negative game script. Make sure you have a backup plan if you’re counting on Kerryon.

WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 13: vs. Bal.): Ridley has been a TD or bust option most weeks. He found the end zone and had a big game last week, but this week’s matchup is the polar opposite of what he faced in week 12. The Saints allow the most WR points per game, and the Ravens allow the 3^rd-fewest per game, and have allowed just 5 WR touchdowns in their past 9 games. Ridley is still in play as a viable WR3 option, but you’ll likely be disappointed if he doesn’t find the end zone.

WR KekeCoutee, HOU (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): DeAndre Hopkins has been the only sure thing in this passing game since the trade for Demaryius Thomas. There is upside with the Browns allowing the 7^th-most WR points per game, but the addition of DT and the recent emergence of Lamar Miller’s running game have made Coutee a dicey weekly flex option.

WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 13: @NYG): We’ve seen the upside with Miler over the past few weeks, but the Bears seem to feature a different receiver each week and Mitch Trubisky may be out again. I like Miller more if Trubisky plays, but it feels like each week one of Miller or Taylor Gabriel will be targeted 7+ times. The trick is guessing which one it will be. The Giants allow the 9^th-fewest WR points per game. Playing Miller outside of really deep leagues is a roll of the dice this week.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 13: @Mia.): Allen has only managed to be productive when he’s been able to do damage with his legs, and only 5 teams have allowed fewer QB rushing yards than the Miami Dolphins. The Bills threw just 19 times in a competitive game in week 12, and they’d prefer to stay in that range most weeks. Allen does seem to have his best games when least expected (against Minnesota and Jacksonville), but It would be a pretty big risk to try him this week outside of deep 2-QB leagues.

QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 13: @GB): The Packers’ defense hasn’t been great, but Rosen has remained a low-volume passer even in matchups where they’ve been way behind. Green Bay doesn’t give up a lot of passing yards either. Only Kirk Cousins has thrown for 300 or more yards against the Pack, and they’ve allowed an average of less than 225 yards per game to all the other QBs they’ve faced. Even if he throws for 2 scores, Rosen is likely no better than a mid-level QB2.

QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 13: @Ten.): It’s likely that Darnold will stay sidelined this week. If he does play, the Titans’ pass defense isn’t anything to fear but Darnold has averaged just 8.2 points per game in his 5 road starts. He hasn’t topped 13.8 in any of them. Stay away.

RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 13: vs. Bal.): In the last 3 weeks, Ito has posted just 14 carries for 21 yards and 8 catches for 34, and zero total TDs. The Ravens allow the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game. There is no reason to have any faith in Ito this week.

RBs Nyheim Hines & Jordan Wilkins, IND (Wk. 13: @Jax.): Both rookies were a little more involved last weekend than they’ve been in a while, but they still combined for just 11.2 fantasy points on 14 touches. The Jaguars allow the fewest RB fantasy points per game.

WR Tre’Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 13: @Dal.): Tre’Quan seems likely to play this Thursday, but I feel a big game coming for the Saints’ usual suspects (Thomas, Kamara, and Ingram) after Brees threw TDs to everyone else last week. The Cowboys do try to shorten the game with a ball control offense, and that’s helped them allow the 2^nd-fewest WR fantasy points in the league so far. Smith still has big upside as the WR2 in this offense, but we’ve seen low-floor weeks from him before, and I have a hunch we see another this week. I’d still play Smith over any other receiver listed in the ‘Rookies to Sit’ section.

WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 13: @GB): As mentioned above, this probably won’t be a big week for Josh Rosen. That doesn’t mean that Kirk can’t have a productive week. The Packers do allow the 6^th-most WR points per game. I’d just prefer to play a receiver in a higher upside offense this week.

WRs Marquez Valdes-Scantling & Equanimeous St. Brown, GB (Wk. 13: vs. Ari.): Both receivers are no more than a DFS dart throw this week. St. Brown appears to have moved ahead of MVS on the depth chart for the time being, but I’m not confident that it will continue this week. Both are risky plays in a game that could be over early on. The Packers are 2-touchdown favorites and could be running a lot.

WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 13: @Hou.): Callaway’s efficiency has been much better of late after some early season struggles. He’s grabbed 14 receptions on 18 targets in the past 4 games after grabbing just 16 on 42 targets prior to that. He still isn’t seeing enough volume to be productive without a TD, and the Texans have allowed just 1 receiver score in the past 5 games.

WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 13: @Cin.): Sutton has flashed big upside at times, but he’s yet to catch more than 3 passes in a game or reach 11 fantasy points. You can’t trust that kind of track record with your season on the line.

WR Trey Quinn, WAS (Wk. 13: @Phi.): Quinn has shown a nice PPR floor with Colt McCoy at QB, and the Eagles have allowed the 2^nd-most WR points per game so far, but they’ve been burned by perimeter receivers, not slot guys. With a full slate of games this week, there are likely better options available.

WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 13: vs. NO): The Saints allow the most WR points per game, but don’t be fooled into thinking Gallup is a sneaky DFS dart throw in this matchup. The Saints have been carved up by number 1 receivers, and in the 3 games since the Amari Cooper trade Gallup has 6 catches for 53 yards on 14 targets.

WR Auden Tate, CIN (Wk. 13: vs. Den.): Tate came out of nowhere last week with 7(!) targets, but he caught just 2 of them for 15 targets. There may be some rapport with new starter Jeff Driskel, but Tate will likely struggle to get on the field with AJ Green back healthy.

TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 13: @Ten.): Herndon has become a big part of the Jets’ passing attack, but the Titans have allowed no more than 5 catches and 52 receiving yards to any TE group other than the Eagles and Zach Ertz. They haven’t allowed a tight end score all season. Herndon likely needs to be the first one to find the end zone for a productive week.

TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 13: vs. Was.): Washington has given up just 3 tight end scores on the year, and no tight end group has made it to 55 receiving yards. Even Ertz may struggle here. Goedert is just a TD dart throw that isn’t likely to hit.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 13: @Cin.): The Broncos may finally have a game where they are playing from ahead with the Bengals rolling with Jeff Driskel at QB. That could give Freeman some extra run in garbage time against one of the worst RB defenses in the NFL. He’s got a better than average chance at a TD this week.

RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 13: vs. SF): Penny is only an option in DFS tournaments. The Seahawks love to run the ball when they can, and they’re favored by double-digits against the 49ers. Chris Carson is still the lead back, but one of Penny or Mike Davis is likely to have a solid fantasy day in mop-up duty. The hard part will be guessing which one.

RB Justin Jackson, LAC (Wk. 13: @Pit.): Melvin Gordon will be out multiple weeks after aggravating an injury against the Cardinals. I can’t say I understand why the Chargers played Gordon in a week they were likely to win by multiple scores without him, but it’s happened now. Austin Ekeler should be the lead back in his absence, but Justin Jackson will certainly get some extended run as well. He’s worth a stash in deep leagues. He flashed in garbage time last week with 7 carries for 57 yards against the Cardinals. This week’s matchup is tough, but it bears watching to see how Jackson is used since Gordon could be out up to 4 weeks.

WRs Dante Pettis & Richie James, SF (Wk. 13: @Sea.): Marquise Goodwin is still not with the team as of Wednesday dealing with a personal matter, and Pierre Garcon was limited in practice Wednesday and is still no sure bet to play. Mullens has given the 49ers at least a respectable passing game, and the Seahawks’ defense has been middling against WRs. Pettis posted 7 targets a week ago, and could have a similar target share this week if both Goodwin and Garcon are out. James played more snaps that a healthy Trent Taylor for the first time all year. Both he and Pettis are trending up this week. James is more of a stash at this point, but Pettis has real DFS upside if the top 2 WRs are out.

WR Robert Foster, BUF (Wk. 13: @Mia.): Foster is a boom-or-bust option in a lackluster passing attack, but one that has boomed in back-to-back weeks. He’s posted 5-199-1 in the past 2 games, and while he isn’t likely to repeat that production this week, only 3 teams have allowed more than the 9 passes of 40+ yards that the Dolphins have surrendered. With Josh Allen’s big arm, Foster has a chance to post a run similar to the one former Rams’ receiver Chris Givens went on as a rookie back in 2012 where he caught a 50-plus yard pass in 5 straight games.

WR Marcell Ateman, OAK (Wk. 13: vs. KC): Ateman didn’t produce last week, but he saw a ridiculous 10(!) targets. Jordy Nelson is practicing and looks likely to play this week, but the Raiders don’t have a lot of reason to keep featuring the old guys. I’d expect Ateman to continue to see a decent number of targets. Kansas City is just a middling defense against WRs. Ateman should have upside in DFS tournaments this week if the targets keep up.

TE Dan Arnold, NO (Wk. 13: @Dal.): Arnold has slowly started to make an impact for the Saints, and he is starting to look like the successor to Ben Watson as the TE of the future. He won’t get many years of Brees, but he’s still an intriguing dynasty stash. He’s a converted WR who has plenty of upside. Arnold is also a sneaky DFS play this week against a Dallas team that has given up 28-339-3 to TEs in the past 3 weeks.

TE Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 13: @Atl.): Hayden Hurst led the Ravens’ tight end group with 4 targets last Sunday, and Andrews had just one, but Andrews is the one I’d take a shot on this week if you’re digging deep for a TE sleeper. Andrews is the best vertical threat the Ravens have at the position, and vertical TEs have given the Falcons and their banged up safety group trouble. They’ve given up solid games to Vernon Davis (5-62), Dan Arnold (4-45-1), OJ Howard (4-62-1) and Ben Watson (5-71).

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of your tougher lineup decisions involving rookies in this critical week. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week, and make sure to check for any surprise inactives on Sunday. You’d hate to miss the playoffs because you take an unnecessary zero. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve found our way to the fantasy playoffs…man did this season fly by. Hopefully your teams are still alive and kicking, and if they are, you’ve probably gotten some help from a rookie along the way. Each week more rookies have put their imprint on this season and the list of useful first year guys continues to grow. In week 13 it was Justin Jackson, Dante Pettis and Jeff Wilson Jr busting onto the scene. These one-week studs can be hard to trust with your season on the line this week, but the Rookie Report is here to help you sort it all out. Keep in mind that any players at the same position and under the same header are listed in the order I would play them this week. Let’s take a look at what to expect in week 14…

Rookies to Start:

QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Car.): Mayfield has been playing at a high level over the last month plus, and the Panthers have been scuffling in a big way. Baker’s final stat line wasn’t pretty last week, but he had a strong second half after an abysmal first. Carolina has been giving up 23.5 points per game to opposing QBs over the past 5 games, and have let 4 of them reach 22 or more (all point totals and rankings are in PPR scoring format). The Panthers have allowed the 6^th-most QB points per game on the year, and rank just 28^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. I’d expect Mayfield to finish the week as a top-10 performer at the position.

RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 14: @Was.): As usual, you don’t need me to tell you to start Barkley. He should be a chalk play in DFS cash games this week as well. All you really need to know is that the 4-win Giants area 3.5-point favorite on the road. Washington is in shambles right now and Saquon should run wild on them.

RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 14: @SF): Lindsay has scored in double-digits in every game this season that he wasn’t ejected from, but he’s really hit his stride lately. He’s been averaging 19.5 fantasy points over the past 6 games with 7 rushing scores in that span, and his top 2 rushing yardage totals of the year came in the past two weeks. The Broncos are 5.5-point favorites this week on the road against the 49ers, so game script should keep Lindsay running, and running well. You can’t sit him this week.

RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Car.): I was tempted to list Chubb as a borderline option this week due to the tough matchup, but couldn’t bring myself to do it. His use as a receiver has kept him useful even when he hasn’t had big rushing days. The Panthers allow the 5^th fewest RB points per game and rank 8^th in run defense DVOA, but Chubb has had just one game outside the top-20 RBs since becoming the unquestioned starter in Cleveland. The upside is too good to leave sidelined.

RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 14: @Mia.): The Pats are heavy favorites in Miami this weekend, and the Dolphins have coughed up the 7^th-most RB points per game on the year. The return of Rex Burkhead might limit Michel’s upside just a bit, but he still handled 17 carries last Sunday with the Patriots up most of the day. If the workload is similar this week, and it should be, the Georgia alum should have a strong RB2 finish.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (Wk. 14: @KC): This will be an interesting week for Jackson. Kansas City has allowed the 5^th-most QB points per game on the year, but they rank a passable 13^th in pass defense DVOA and Lamar hasn’t reached 180 passing yards in any of his 3 starts and has just 1 passing TD total in those games. His rushing yards give him a solid weekly floor, especially with the Chiefs ranking dead last in run defense DVOA, but he’ll need a more productive passing day than he’s had so far to hit his ceiling. He’s a risky QB1 streamer in deeper leagues, but a solid QB2.

RB Gus Edwards, BAL (Wk. 14: @KC): As I just mentioned above, the Chiefs rank dead last in the league in run defense DVOA. Edwards provides nothing in the passing game and the Chiefs are a TD-favorite, but the Ravens with Lamar Jackson under center aren’t going to abandon the run game even if they fall behind. With 61 carries and 315 rushing yards in the last 3 weeks, Edwards should be a high-floor flex play this week who will pleasantly surprise if he finds the end zone. He remains a better play in non-PPR formats.

RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 14: @Dal.): The workhorse usage continued for Adams in week 13, his second straight game with 20+ carries, but like Gus Edwards he’s been a non-factor in the passing game. Dallas is a tough matchup, ranking 6^th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 8^th-fewest RB points per game. He’s still in play as a flex option, but I’d be hopeful I have better options at the RB1 and RB2 spots.

RB Justin Jackson, LAC (Wk. 14: vs. Cin.): Jackson became fantasy relevant at just the right time to showcase his skills. There aren’t many matchups better than the one he faces this week. Melvin Gordon will be sidelined again, and Jackson was far more effective last week than Austin Ekeler has been in a lead back role. Coach Anthony Lynn claimed Ekeler is worn down at this point of the season, and hinted that Jackson would have a bigger role moving forward until Gordon returns. Cincy ranks 28^th in run defense DVOA, and has allowed more RB fantasy points per game than any other team. In the past 7 games, the Bengals have given up 145 rushing yards per game to RBs along with 11 rushing TDs. There’s risk here since we don’t really know how the split will look between Jackson and Ekeler, but Jackson has the upside to finish the week as a top-10 back.

RB Jaylen Samuels, PIT (Wk. 14: @Oak.): Samuels should have a big opportunity this week with James Connor out, but head coach Mike Tomlin has stated it will be a running back by committee game plan with Samuels and vet Stevan Ridley. Samuels is more likely to catch passes than Ridley, but Ryan Switzer may also pick up some of the dump offs vacated by Conner. The Raiders rank 31^st in run defense DVOA, but only the Vikings run the ball on a lower percentage of their offensive plays than the Steelers. Overall, Samuels makes for an intriguing flex option with plenty of PPR upside, but I think he’s riskier than Jackson this week.

WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Somehow Cleveland ranks an impressive 4^th in pass defense DVOA, but still allows the 8^th-most WR points per game. Although his production has been a little uneven, Moore’s usage has been consistent. He’s been targeted at least 8 times in each of the past 3 games. With Greg Olsen done for the year, Moore and Christian McCaffrey are the two focal points of this passing game. Moore is a solid WR3 this week.

WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 14: @SF): With the news Wednesday night that Emmanuel Sanders is done for the year with an Achilles tear, Sutton suddenly becomes the de facto WR1 in Denver. He’s posted 78+ receiving yards in each of his past 3 road games, and saw a career-high 7 targets last Sunday before Sanders was hurt. The 49ers rank 26^th in pass defense DVOA. He’s a safe bet for 7+ targets again this week and should be a legitimate WR3 play this week even in this lackluster passing attack.

WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 14: @GB): There isn’t much to say about Ridley except that he’s going to be a boom or bust option once again this week. He lives on the WR3 borderline. Green Bay has been mediocre against WRs, allowing the 9^th-most points per game to the position, and this one feels like it could be a shootout between 2 teams mired in disappointing seasons. Keep an eye on the weather report for this one. If it’s going to be bitter cold, I’d probably shy away from Ridley a bit, but his usual upside is there.

WR Tre’Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 14: @TB): In the last 4 road games that Smith has started in, he has totaled 6 catches for 62 yards with zero scores. That’s not exactly impressive, but I like his chances to have his best road game of the season this week. Tampa allows the 3^rd-most WR points per game and ranks 29^th in pass defense DVOA. The Saints’ passing attack will be looking to get right this week after laying an egg in Dallas last Thursday, and the Bucs are as good a matchup to do that against as any. Smith should be closer to full health after being a non-factor last week. Tre’Quan remains risky, but he’s a fun option if you’re feeling lucky.

TE Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 14: @KC): If you’re scrounging the waiver wire this week for a TE (Olsen owner, worried about questionable tag on Ebron, not enthused about Brate, Burton, or Hooper), Andrews is worth a look this week. He’s quietly posted 121 receiving yards in the last 2 weeks with Lamar Jackson at QB, and Kansas City allows more TE points per game than any other team. They’ve given up 85+ receiving yards to TEs in 6 of their 12 contests, and have given up 30+ fantasy points and multiple scores to tight ends in each of the last 2 games. The floor is low, but Andrews seems to have emerged as the top TE target in Baltimore and has as good a matchup as possible.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. Det.): The matchup with the Lions is an OK one for Rosen. The Lions have given up an average of 2 passing TDs per week, but the volume just isn’t there for Rosen to be useful, and he just lost his most productive receiver to injured reserve (Christian Kirk). The Lions have held 6 of the 12 QBs they’ve faced to 230 or fewer passing yards. I’d expect Rosen to make it 7 of 13.

QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 14: @Buf.): Darnold will likely return to the starting role this week, but this is not the matchup to roll the dice on him. The Bills rank 3^rd in pass defense DVOA and no team in the league has allowed fewer QB fantasy points. Just one QB they’ve faced in their past 10 games has topped 15 points, and 6 of them were held to 10 or fewer.

RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 14: @Ari.): At 4-8, the Lions have no reason to rush Kerryon back into action. He’s currently listed as doubtful, so it’s probably a moot point to even list him here. If he is active, I’d expect the Lions to really limit his playing time. I’d avoid him this week.

RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 14: vs. Min.): Penny has made the most of limited opportunities in recent weeks with 223 rushing yards on 31 carries in the past 4 weeks, but the Vikings are stingy against the run and rank 9^th in run defense DVOA. I’d have some interest in Penny as a sleeper if he were being used as a receiver, but he has zero targets in those 4 games. The Vikings do rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA on throws to backs. There just isn’t enough upside in Penny to take a shot this week.

RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 14: @Hou.): Hines was targeted a surprising 9 times last week and caught all of them, but I’d be stunned if that happens again. His usage remains wildly inconsistent, and the Texans rank 1^st in the league in pass defense DVOA on throws to RBs. Hines provides little in the run game, and needs to make a splash as a receiver to be useful. This isn’t a great spot to bet on him doing that.

RB Chase Edmonds, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. Det.): Don’t expect a repeat of the game Edmonds posted in week 13. He saw just 5 carries to 20 for David Johnson. I would expect a similar split this week…I just wouldn’t expect Edmonds to be as efficient with those limited touches this week.

WR Dante Pettis, SF (Wk. 14: vs. Den.): Pettis had a blowup game last weekend, but the Broncos have a strong pass defense. They rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA, and Marquise Goodwin should be back this week. The 49ers should be passing plenty, so Pettis is worth consideration in deeper leagues, but for most formats there’s too much at stake to count on a repeat performance by Pettis.

WRs Marquez Valdes-Scantling & Equanimeous St. Brown, GB (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): There may be some upside here, but your guess is as good as mine when it comes to which guy will make good on that upside. The Falcons rank an abysmal 31^st in pass defense DVOA, but have been mostly burned by RBs and TEs. I’d expect a lot of Aaron Jones, Davante Adams and Jimmy Graham this week. ESB and MVS are both too risky to roll with in the fantasy playoffs.

WR Keke Coutee, HOU (Wk. 14: vs. Ind.): The Colts allow the 5^th-fewest WR points in the league, and Coutee is battling his 3^rd hamstring injury of the season. It kept him out of last week’s game against Cleveland, and even if he’s able to play this week he’ll likely be the 3^rd option in the passing attack behind Nuk Hopkins and DT.

WR Marcell Ateman, OAK (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): With Jordy Nelson back at full strength, Ateman’s opportunity pretty much dried up. The Raiders would be smart to let the youngster get some valuable experience in a lost season, but it looks unlikely that Gruden will allow that. You can’t trust Ateman in any format this week.

WR Trey Quinn, WAS (Wk. 14: vs. NYG): The return of Chris Thompson and Jamison Crowder should render Quinn irrelevant even if he is able to play this week. That duo will handle the majority of the targets that Quinn can compete for. It’s also hard to count on any passing game target in an offense that is quarterbacked by Mark Sanchez.

TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 14: @Buf.): The Bills rank 2^nd in the league in pass defense DVOA on throws to TEs. They’ve given up fewer than 2 TE points four times, and fewer than 9 points seven times. Herndon’s had some nice games along the way, but I wouldn’t want to bank on him finding the end zone in Darnold’s first game back on the field.

TE Jordan Thomas, HOU (Wk. 14: vs. Ind.): Thomas is a TD dart throw facing a team that has given up 3 tight end scores all year. Thomas has been a pretty good TD bet lately, catching 4 of them in his past 5 games, but he’s posted just 16.8 total points in the 8 games he didn’t find the end zone. A goose egg would be tough to swallow in a playoff game.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. NYJ): Allen has a consistently low floor, but he’s shown the upside with his running ability over the past few weeks. The removal of Kelvin Benjamin could be addition by subtraction for the Bills’ pass attack. The Jets have allowed 5 of the last 9 QBs they’ve faced to reach 20 fantasy points, and another made it to 19. Allen is a decent QB2 streamer in a solid matchup.

RB Jeff Wilson Jr., SF (Wk. 14: vs. Den.): Wilson caught 8 passes in his first meaningful game action of the season, and he should see more work going forward. Matt Breida is out this week, and the Broncos rank 22^nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to opposing RBs. He should be in play as a flex option in PPR formats. I’d expect Alf Morris to be active and be part of the game plan, but Wilson will be the better fantasy option of the 2.

RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 14: @SF): If you’re desperate at RB, you could do worse than take a shot on Freeman finding the end zone this week. He’s found the end zone in half of the games he’s played this season, and the Broncos should be able to control this game or at least keep the game script neutral. The Niners are just a middling run defense, ranking 16^th in run defense DVOA.

RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 14: @GB): This is the first time in 4 weeks that Smith actually has a decent matchup after squaring off against the Cowboys, Saints and Ravens over the past 3 weeks. This week he faces the Packers, who rank 27^th in run defense DVOA. Smith hasn’t exactly gotten a lot of run with 17 carries and 5 targets in his past 3 games, but Tevin Coleman hasn’t gotten that much more with 22 carries and 10 targets in that span. Smith is only really in play in the deepest of leagues, but I expect him to have the best game he’s had in over a month.

WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Car.): Callaway’s turnaround since the first half of the season has been stark. In the first 6 games of the year, he caught just 15 of 40 targets for 186 yards and 1 TD. In the past 6, he went 18-186-2 on just 26 targets. The volume hasn’t been great, but the efficiency has been solid. The targets will come if he continues to play this well. Carolina has allowed the 6^th-most WR points per game, and I’m confident Callaway will see 6+ targets in this one. A WR4 week is a realistic hope for the rookie in this one.

WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 14: vs. LAR): It appears likely that the Bears will get Mitch Trubisky back this week, and the Rams have struggled to contain ancillary receivers this season. They rank 27^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to WRs other than the #1 or #2 guy (A-Rob & Gabriel). The Bears love to spread the ball around a bit, so Miller is a volatile option, but the upside is there for deeper leagues.

WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 14: vs. Phi.): Gallup finally seems to have emerged as the clear WR2 in Dallas after seeing inconsistent targets and playing time for much of the year. The Amari Cooper trade seems to have crystallized the receiver depth chart. Cooper will continue to be the lead guy, but Gallup showed last Thursday he has some upside as well. The Eagles allow the 2^nd-most WR points per game and rank 27^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing #2 WR. Cooper is still the obvious play here, but Gallup is intriguing against the banged up Eagles’ secondary as well.

WR Robert Foster, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. NYJ): The Jets have allowed the 4th-most WR points per game and rank just 18^th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. The deep ball is Foster’s bread and butter. His target share should increase with Kelvin Benjamin and Andre Holmes kicked to the curb. He’s worth a stash in deeper dynasty leagues, and is worth looking at as a punt play in DFS tournaments.

WR DaeSean Hamilton, DEN (Wk. 14: @SF): Hamilton is more of a stash than anything at this point. With Emmanuel Sanders done for the year (and possibly part of next year), Hamilton should be on the field a lot more going forward. The Broncos have a low volume passing attack, so it would make sense to take a wait-and-see approach to figure out how the targets break down going forward.

TE Ian Thomas, CAR (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Thomas managed to pull in 5 catches after Greg Olsen got hurt last weekend, and the Browns allow the 6^th-most TE points per game. Tight ends are averaging 75 yards per game with 4 TDs against Cleveland in the past 4 games. We saw Thomas as a starter earlier this season when Olsen was hurt, and his production was underwhelming, but there’s a chance he’s more useful in this go-round. He’s worth consideration as a bargain basement DFS option.

TE Dan Arnold, NO (Wk. 14: @TB): The Buccaneers have given up 9 or more TE points in 11 of their 12 games this season. Arnold has been ascending over the past few weeks. Ben Watson has gone 2-21 on just 4 targets over the past 4 weeks while Arnold has gone 10-115-1 on 13 targets in that same span. Arnold is the guy to take a shot on here if you’re going to target the Bucs porous TE defense.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report this week to make sure your guys are playing. The last thing you want this week is to put up a goose egg from a player because you forgot to check his status on game day. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome  back to the Rookie Report! It's been a roller coaster ride of a season, but we've finally arrived at championship week. Week 15 was loaded with fantasy carnage as several weekly studs turned into duds with the season on the line. Saquon Barkley, Adam Thielen and Keenan Allen are just a few of the let downs that had to be overcome. Hopefully you were able to avoid those pitfalls and made your way to the league championship game. The decisions don't get any easier this week with a lot of injury uncertainty and so few players feeling like sure things right now. I'm here to help, at least as it pertains to your rookies. Keep in mind that any players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order I would play them this week. Let's dive into the matchups...

Rookies to Start:

RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 16: @Ind.): I'm sure most of you know better than to read too much into Barkley's worst game of the season last week...but if you're nervous about it I have some reassuring numbers. The Titans he faced last week have allowed the fewest RB fantasy points per game this season (all rankings and point totals in PPR format). The Colts are just a middling RB defense, and they've been especially vulnerable to receiving backs like Saquon. Only Atlanta has allowed more RB catches than the 100 that Indy has given up, and the Colts have also coughed up the 6th-most receiving yards to the position. Saquon should get back on track and should be started with confidence in all formats.

RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 16: vs. Cin.): Chubb should be one of the best RB plays of the week. He managed to run for 100 yards in a much tougher matchup last week. The Bengals rank just 26th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA stat, and they allow the 2nd-most RB points per game. Game script should also be in Chubb's favor with the Browns an 8.5-point favorite. Chubb should carry it a ton this week and is an obvious RB1 play this week.

RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 16: @Oak.): Lindsay has been in a bit of a funk since Emmanuel Sanders was lost for the season and defenses have been able to focus on stopping him, but I think he has a great chance to break out of that funk this week. The Raiders rank 27th in run defense DVOA and have given up the 2nd-most rushing yards to opposing RBs. Denver is a 3-point road favorite and should at least be able to keep the game script neutral or positive all day. The defense should still be keyed in on Lindsay, but he's still a solid RB2 play this week.

RB Jaylen Samuels, PIT (Wk. 16: @NO): It looks like James Conner will be out again, and the Steelers might also be missing JuJu Smith-Schuster as well. Samuels should be a focal point of the offense even in a less than ideal matchup. The Saints allow the 4th-fewest RB points per game, but also rank just 30th in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs. Samuels should be able to do enough as a receiver to offset any struggles he has on the ground. He's had 12 catches in the past 3 weeks, and managed to be the RB14 last week without scoring a TD. He should be a solid RB2 and a solid bet to find the end zone in a game with the 2nd-highest over/under of the week (53).

RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 16: vs. Buf.): Like Phillip Lindsay, Michel has been in a bit of a funk. He hasn't reached 65 yards rushing or found the end zone in the past 3 weeks, and has just one catch to go along with the rushing production. The Bills aren't a pushover matchup (9th in run defense DVOA), but I still like Michel's chances to have a strong performance. The Pats are a 2-touchdown favorite, and the Bills have allowed the 10th-most RB points per game. The 15 RB rushing scores they've allowed are tied for the 2nd-most in the league. This sets up as more of a Michel week than James White week.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 16: vs. Cin.): The production has been a bit light for Mayfield over the past few weeks, but this is a good spot for him to get back on track. The Bengals have been playing improved pass defense since the return of slot corner Darqueze Dennard, but they still allow the most QB points per game in the league. They've been giving up 15.6 QB points per game in the 5 games since Dennard returned after allowing 23.4 per game prior to that, but it isn't all from better defensive play. The bigger concern for Mayfield is game script. The Bengals without Andy Dalton have struggled to stay competitive most weeks, and opponents haven't had to throw. They've faced fewer than 30 pass attempts 6 times all year, and 4 of them are in the past 5 games. That risk that the Browns stop throwing is what keeps me from saying Mayfield is a sure start. He's more of a low-end QB1 for me this week.

QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (Wk. 16: @LAC): The Chargers are a tough matchup, but Lamar's running ability has given him a safe weekly floor. He's run for at least 67 yards in each of his starts, and his rushing floor is much safer than Josh Allen's since much of it comes on designed runs rather than scrambles. The Chargers rank an uninspiring 18th in run defense DVOA, and Lamar has finished between the QB9 and QB14 in every start so far. I'd expect him to be right in that same ballpark once again this week.

QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 16: NE): Allen has been riding a real heater over the past 4 weeks, but I think all of us are kind of waiting for him to turn into a pumpkin. Will this be the week? Who knows. His rushing production took a pretty big dip last week, but he still did enough to end up as the QB4 for the week. He should be throwing plenty against New England. The Patriots are a 2-touchdown favorite and average 33.5 team points per game at home in Foxboro. New England has allowed the 10th-most QB points per game and has been vulnerable to moblie QBs this season. Allen should be on the QB1/QB2 borderline this week, but it will mostly depend on what he's able to do with his legs. 55% of his fantasy points in the last 4 weeks have come from rushing production. There's a lot of risk here, but Allen has come through in 4 straight.

RB Gus Edwards, BAL (Wk. 16: @LAC): This is a bit of a riskier week for Gus Edwards. The Chargers do allow the 9th-most RB points per game, but they are much more vulnerable to receiving back than pure runners and Edwards hasn't caught a pass since week 8. The Chargers have allowed the 9th-fewest RB rushing yards, and the 3rd-most receiving yards to the position. There is a bit of a silver lining for Edwards. LA has coughed up 8 rushing scores to opposing backs in the past 5, and Gus's workload seems to be safe even with the return of Kenneth Dixon. Edwards has carried at least 16 times in every game since he took over as the lead back. He's a solid flex play, and as always a better option in non-PPR leagues.

RB Kalen Ballage, MIA (Wk. 16: vs. Jax.): Outside of a 75-yard TD run, Ballage tallied 11 carries for 48 yards and 1 catch for -2 last weekend. That's still over 4 yards per carry when you remove his best run of the day. That gives some reason for optimism even going into a tough matchup this week with the Jaguars. Jacksonville has allowed fewer that 60 RB rushing yards in 4 of their last 5 games (and were shredded by Derrick Henry in the other). Workload alone puts Ballage firmly on the flex radar, but the lack of track record makes him a risky option. He'll be a sneaky DFS tournament play if he winds up being a factor in the passing game as well. I'm not sure if Kenyan Drake will still factor in there or not, but Ballage was one of the best route runners of this RB class in collge.

RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. Hou.): As quickly as Adams became the clear lead back in Philly, he has been relegated to committee work once again. Instead of Corey Clement, it's Wendell Smallwood and Darren Sproles sharing the load with him. Adams hasn't caught a pass in 4 weeks and has just 22 carries total in the past 2 weeks after tallying 20 & 22 carries in the previous 2 weeks. He also is looked to be clearly less than 100% last weekend. The Eagles are leaning on the run game more with Nick Foles under center, but Adams is just a dicey flex option against a Texans defense that is allowing the 9th-fewest RB points per game.

WR Dante Pettis, SF (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): The Bears defense has been phenomenal this year, but the one fantasy position they haven't fully shut down is wide receiver. Chicago allows the 11th-most WR points per game, and Pettis has put up 13+ PPR points in 4 straight games. The targets should be there once again, making Pettis an upside WR3/flex option even against the Bears' elite defense.

WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 16: @Car.): Ridley is a dicey flex option this week IF Julio Jones plays. He should get a nice bump if Jones is out however. The Panthers are a plus matchup for him. Carolina ranks 28th in pass defense DVOA and allows th 9th-most WR points per game. Ridley has shown huge upside even with Julio on the field, but he's also failed to reach 50 yards or 10 PPR points in 5 of his last 7 games. I'd certainly lean towards starting him if Julio sits, but he's a boom-or-bust option as usual if Julio is out there.

WR Robert Foster, BUF (Wk. 16: @NE): Foster has burst onto the scene as Josh Allen has gone on his hot streak, posting 90+ receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 games and 17+ fantasy points in 3 of his last 4. The Pats have just a middling WR defense, and Foster has clearly emerged as a favorite target of Allen. I'd be tempted to call him a boom-or-bust option given his deep ball skills and the inexperience of this offense, but his production thus far has been really consistent. Foster should be a pretty solid WR3 option this week.

WR DaeSean Hamilton, DEN (Wk. 16: @Oak.): Hamilton hasn't shown a high ceiling, but he's shown a high floor after seeing a team-high 21 targets in the last 2 weeks. Case Keenum clearly likes targeting his slot WRs, and the Raiders are just average at defending the slot even though they allow the 9th-fewest WR points per game overall. There isn't big yardage upside, but 8-10 targets are likely for Hamilton this week. That makes him an intriguing flex for deeper PPR leagues.

TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. GB): Herndon's 3-53 line last Saturday was his best in 3 weeks. He gets to face off with Green Bay this week. The Packers have allowed the 7th-fewest TE points per game for the season, but have allowed 6+ catches and 50+ yards to the position in 3 of their past 4, and they rank just 22nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to the tight ends. Herndon is right on the cusp of being a top-10 option in the wasteland that is the tight end position.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 16: vs. LAR): The Rams have allowed 10 or fewer QB points in each of the past 3 games, and in 5 of the 6 games that Aqib Talib has played in. Rosen hasn't thrown a TD pass in the last 3 games, and hasn't reached 10 points in the last 4. The Cardinals have an implied team total of just 15 points. Rosen may be the worst QB option out there this week. If you're considering starting him as a superflex out of desperation, I'd look at playing a non-QB instead.

RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 16: @Oak.): If Denver puts the pieces together and returns to the form they showed a few weeks back, Freeman has a chance at a decent game in garbage time. I wouldn't count on that though. Royce is no more than a TD roll of the dice in the deepest of leagues.

RB Jeff WIlson Jr., SF (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): After amassing 23 and 24 touches in the two games Matt Breida missed, Wilson dropped back to just 7 with Breida back out there in week 15. There is no tougher defense in the league than the Chicago Bears, and that means there is no reason to roll Wilson out there in any fantasy lineups as the 49ers RB2.

RB Justin Jackson, LAC (Wk. 16: vs. Bal.): The return of Melvin Gordon will render Jackson irrelevant for fantasy purposes this week, even with Austin Ekeler likely out. Jackson should see the change of pace work usually reserved for Ekeler, but the Ravens allow the 2nd-fewest RB points per game. If Gordon is somehow out again, Jackson would be a low-end RB2 option.

WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 16: vs. Atl.): There may be some upside for DJ with the QB switch from Cam Newton to Taylor Heinecke, but it's a big risk to bank on that in championship week. Newton  clearly hasn't been healthy in a few weeks and Heinecke could ultimately prove to be an upgrade in the short term. This is a decent matchup with the Falcons ranking 30th in pass defense DVOA, but it would take some real cojones to roll Moore out in championship week with a QB making his first career start.

WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 16: @Oak.): The Raiders allow the 3rd-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing WR1s, and Sutton has been out-targeted by fellow rookie DaeSean Hamilton in consecutive games since Emmanuel Sanders was injured. Sutton hasn't produced much in those two game, tallying 7-56-0 on 11 targets. He's flashed some real talent, but Keenum hasn't shown a consistent ability to deliver the ball to the perimeter. Sutton is a risky play at best outside of really deep leagues.

WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 16: vs. TB): Gallup was targeted a whopping zero times last week in the shutout loss to Indy just a week after seeing 9 targets against Philly. That's too much volatility to have any trust in him even in a plus matchup. Tampa allows the 5th-most WR points per game, but Gallup isn't a top-40 option this week.

WRs Tre'Quan Smith & Keith Kirkwood, NO (Wk. 16: vs. Pit.): Smith is the bigger name here, but Kirkwood has been the more productive receiver over the past 4 weeks with 2 TDs. Neither should be near your championship week lineups though. Kirkwood has averaged just 24 yards per game over those last 4 games, and Tre'Quan has just 2 catches for 15 yards in total in that span. The game is at home, where New Orleans' offense is much more potent, and the Steelers  rank 21s in pass defense DVOA, so there is some upside in DFS formats. I'd prefer Smith if I were rolling the dice on one of them, but I'd stay far away in season-long leagues.

WR Marcell Ateman, OAK (Wk. 16: vs. Den.): Only 2 teams allow more points to opposing WR2s than the Broncos, but Ateman has averaged fewer than 30 receiving yards and has just one touchdown in the 5 games he's played. Jordy Nelson, Jared Cook and Jalen Richard are all higher in the target pecking order than Ateman. You can find the same upside without as much risk.

TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. Hou.): In his first real action with Nick Foles at QB, Goedert did little, pulling in 2 catches for 12 yards on 2 targets. Alshon Jeffery seems to be Foles' top target, and Golden Tate was much more involved after the switch as well. The Texans have struggled to defend tight ends, allowing just under 19 PPR points per game to the position over the past 6 contests. The matchup gives a shred of hope to those of you looking at Goedert as a TD dart throw, but I'd probably steer clear and chase a Zach Ertz bounce-back instead.

TEs Mark Andrews & Hayden Hurst, BAL (Wk. 16: @LAC): Both players continue to cannibalize the other's fantasy upside. Andrews has consistently shown more as a receiver than Hurst, but both are poor options in championship week.

TE Tyler Conklin, MIN (Wk. 16: @Det.): Conklin's role has been increasing of late, and he did post a season-high 53 receiving yards last Sunday, but he did that on just 3 targets. The Lions have allowed just 24 TE yards per game and 1 TD to the position over the past 5 games. All Conklin is accomplishing right now is killing Kyle Rudolph's upside.

TEs Jordan Thomas & Jordan Akins, HOU (Wk. 16: @Phi.): The Eagles allow the 8th-fewest TE points per game, and the Texans targeted their tight end group a total of twice last week. They have a 3-man tight end rotation. There's no reason to go here in any format.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. GB): Darnold is coming off his best game of the season, and gets to face a Green Bay defense that has allowed multiple TD passes to 6 of the 7 QBs they've faced away from Lambeau. A big yardage game is unlikely as the Packers have only given up 250 or more passing yards in 5 of their 14 games on the year. Darnold hasn't shown the kind of ceiling you'd be looking for in DFS, but something in the ballpark of 225 yards and 2 or 3 TDs would certainly be servicable from a QB2 or superflex option.

RB John Kelly, LAR (Wk. 16: @Ari.): Todd Gurley's status is very much up in the air this week with the news that he hasn't run at all since last Sunday. The Rams need a win this week to help the secure a bye, but likely don't have to force Gurley into action to get one. The Rams did sign CJ Anderson this week, and a lot of media folks picked up on a comment Sean McVay made that "you can see Anderson playing a role as early as this week." I think they're reading too much into that comment. Kelly has been patiently biding his time behind Gurley, and I think it is him and not CJA who will handle the bulk of the work if Gurley is sidelined. The Cardinals allow the 4th-most RB points per game, so the upside here is huge. It would be a big leap of faith to play Kelly, but he has the skill to cash in if given the opportunity. NFL.com's Graham Barfield noted earlier this week that in college Kelly had the 3rd-most missed tackles forced per carry of any RBs to enter the league in the last 3 years behind only Saquon Barkley and Joe Mixon. This could be his time to shine. Obviously make sure that Gurley is out before pulling the trigger here, and pay attention to see if McVay gives any further indications what the workload split will look like.

RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): This is as good a week as any to take a shot on Hines. The Giants are tied for the league-most 6 receiving TDs allowed to opposing RBs. Hines tallied 10 touches last week in the Colts' blowout win against Dallas, and Indy is a 9-point favorite this week. He's still a volatile option as long as he's playing behind Marlon Mack, but one with nice upside in DFS tournaments and in the deepest PPR leagues.

WR James Washington, PIT (Wk. 16: @NO): With JuJu Smith Schuster popping up on the injury report mid-week, Washington suddenly looks like he could be a potential week/league-winner. JuJu suffered a groin injury in practice Thursday, and it would be Washington who would step in opposite Antonio Brown if Smith-Schuster were to sit out. Washington is coming off a season-best 3-65 performance last week, and the Saints allow more WR points than any other team in the league. The Steelers are a 6-point underdog and should be throwing more than enough to make Washington a viable WR3 or better if Smith-Schuster is out on Sunday.

WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 16: vs. Cin.): The Bengals have shut down opposing slot WRs since the return of Darqueze Dennard, and it'll be Jarvis Landry who squares off with him this week. That should help open things up for the Browns' outiside receivers. Breshad Perriman and Rashard Higgins are still splitting snaps on one side, and it's Callaway lining up on the other. Callaway has 50 receiving yards and/or a score in 5 of his last 7 games. He has solid upside for DFS lineups and deeper leagues.

WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 16: @SF): Miller has been a total non-factor of late with just 1 catch for 1 yard in his past 3 games, but the time may be right for a resurgence. Miller may be a sneaky DFS tournament option this week. The Bears' offense is one that seemingly has a different standout each week, and the 49ers allow the 6th-most points per game to opposing WRs and the 5th-most to opposing slot WRs. He's a huge risk given how little he's been involved lately, but if the Bears get him involved again it's a risk that could pay off nicely.

TE Ian Thomas, CAR (Wk. 16: vs. ATL): Thomas is a wild card this week with Heinecke at quarterback, but inexperienced QBs have a tendency to lean on their tight ends. The Falcons ar a middling TE defense (18th-most points allowed, 15th in pass DVOA on throws to TEs), and Heinecke is a total unknown since Old Dominion was only an FBS program for one year that he was there. Thomas has been a pretty big part of the game plan since Greg Olsen was lost for the year, and that makes him at least a dart throw in the deepest of leagues and in DFS tournaments.

That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you make he toughest decisions you've got for your lineups that involve rookies, and hopefully it helps you to a championship. Keep a very close eye on the injury report and the guys who end up inactive on game day. Some of these projections are contingent on other guys being out, and also you'll be kicking yourself if you start anyone who ends up inactive. Feel free to hit me up on twitter with any specific questions or if you want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.

Last week, we finally had some upsets in the NFL, and 568 entrants were eliminated from the pool. I gave you an easy winner last week with the Chargers, who stomped out the Dolphins like everyone else has this year. But alas, this week the Dolphins are on bye, so I'm going to have to really put on my thinking cap to pick this week's winner.

Looking at the schedule I was inclined to pick the undefeated 49ers against the Cleveland Browns at home, but I just don't know which one of those teams is for real and which one’s a pretender yet, so I'm going to skip that one. After seeing I've already used some of the biggest favorites of the week, I decided to go out on a limb a little bit and pick the Minnesota Vikings.

There's been a lot of drama and shit talking regarding their terrible quarterback Kirk Cousins, but I think that it just motivated guys like Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen to really go off this week and put a whooping on a resurgent Giants team. Danny Dimes is looking good so far, but the Vikings defense is fierce and I think the Vikings will win this game. Plus, one Golden Tate minus one Saquon Barkley equals negative Saquon Barkley's. That pretty much sums up how I feel the Giants are performing this game.

On a final note, I would like to add a suggestion. Stefon Diggs should to request a trade destination like either the New England Patriots or the Kansas City Chiefs. My fantasy teams would really enjoy that. This article was written while driving to Sequoia National Park for a camping weekend so I hope it's plenty coherent and enjoyable enough and that the pic is a good one. Have a good weekend everybody.