Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve now made it halfway through the fantasy regular season, and you should have a pretty good idea of whether your team is in good position for the playoffs, or if you have some work to do to get back in the hunt. Keep grinding even if you don’t feel great about where you’re at right now. A big second half can still get you back into your league playoff picture.
By this point in the season, we’ve seen 3 rookies truly establish themselves as every-week must starts: Najee Harris, Ja’Marr Chase, and Kyle Pitts. I know that you already know to start them every week, but they’re still going to show up in the report as ‘Rookies to Start’ each week unless something drastic happens, and I’ll still include some tidbits about what to expect from them each week. This is the point in the year when we start to see some late-blooming rookies asserting themselves a bit more, and being able to pinpoint which rookies will step up can give you an edge if you’re trying to get back into contention. I’m here to help you do just that as we head into week 8.
A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. There are a LOT of running backs listed as ‘Borderline’ this week, so please keep this in mind and read what’s written about each. Let’s dive into week 8…
RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 8: @Cle.): This probably isn’t a ceiling week for Najee against what’s been a strong Cleveland run defense, but the rookie has scored at least 16 fantasy points in 5 straight games and should be locked into starting lineups. The Browns rank 3rd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and have allowed the 6th-fewest running back points per game. Harris shouldn’t be a chalky DFS play this week, but he’s still a safe starter in season-long leagues.
WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 8: @NYJ): This week feels like a bit of a trap game for Chase. The Jets have played from behind a lot this season, and as a result they’ve been bleeding a ton of points to running backs, but not so many to wide receivers. They’ve given up 6 and half more RB points per game than any other team in the league, and the 3rd-fewest per game to wide receivers. There may be plenty of Joe Mixon in this game, but Chase is still going to get his. He’s been targeted 9+ times in 3 of the last 4 games, and against the Jets’ undermanned defense, he should have no problem making it 8 games in a row of 10+ fantasy points even if his volume dips a bit. The Jets rank 30th in pass defense DVOA.
WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 8: @Det.): I won’t fault you if you’re a little gun-shy about getting Smith into your lineup since the Eagles’ inconsistent passing game seems to have capped his ceiling, but this is as good a spot as you’ll find to fire him up. Smith has seen 38% of the Eagles’ air yards this season, and no team has been burned down the field as consistently as the Lions. Detroit allows the highest average yards before catch per completion in the league, and Smith and QB Jalen Hurts will likely connect on a few balls of 15+ yards in this one. DeVonta has WR2 upside against a Detroit defense that ranks 27th in pass defense DVOA.
WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 8: @KC): Toney and teammate Kenny Golladay are both practicing as of Thursday, so both players seem to be on track to play Monday night, but Toney is the one I would want to play in lineups. Toney was dominating the looks and production in this offense the last couple games he played in, and the Chiefs rank 31st in pass defense DVOA. There should be plenty of passing volume for the Giants in this one, and if Toney is close to 100%, I like his chances at 7+ targets against a porous pass defense. If you plan to play Kadarius, keep an eye on the injury report and make sure he’s good to go, or make sure you have a backup plan in case he winds up inactive, but he’s going to reward fantasy managers who take the risk if he plays. He doesn’t have the safe floor that Smith or Chase do, but he’s got a WR1 ceiling.
TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): A lot of people treated Kyle Pitts’ huge day in London as his true breakout game, but it was nothing compared to what he did in week 7. Yes, he scored more fantasy points in London than he did this past week by virtue of finding the end zone, but the way he piled up his stats against the Dolphins was more impressive. He beat man coverage and made circus downfield catches repeatedly on his way to over 160 yards receiving, and he did so with Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage back on the field after both missed the London trip. Yes, there will be more games where Pitts’ usage is puzzlingly low, but you’ve now seen the ceiling and why you can’t sit him if you have him. The Panthers have been above average against tight ends this year, but they’ve also allowed three tight end scores in the last 4 games.
QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 8: @Sea.): After a truly awful start to the season, Trevor Lawrence has looked more like the number 1 pick in recent weeks, limiting turnovers and keeping his team in games. The Jaguars have limited his passing volume with a heavy dose of James Robinson, but that hasn’t stopped the rookie from averaging 265 passing yards per game in his last 3. The Seahawks have been a very burnable secondary, ranking 25th in pass defense DVOA. I expect Seattle will want to slow the game down with Geno Smith at QB, so a 300-yard day probably isn’t in the offing for Trevor, but he should be a solid mid-range QB2 in this one.
RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 8: @Atl.): Chuba is coming off his worst game since stepping in for the injured Christian McCaffrey, but Atlanta seems like the perfect opponent to bounce back against. The Falcons have coughed up the 9th-most RB points per game and rank 28th in run defense DVOA, and have allowed double-digit fantasy points to an opposing back in every game but the one against Tampa. The Bucs have the 2nd-lowest run rate in the league. Chuba has been losing some passing down work to Royce Freeman most weeks, but he’s still handled at least 15 touches in each of the last 4 games. As long as the Panthers are in this game, Hubbard is going to be heavily involved. He’s a solid RB2 option despite the letdown game last week.
RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 8: @Det.): With the injury to Miles Sanders, Gainwell is in line for a much bigger workload in week 8. He’ll share backfield duties with Boston Scott, and both could be start-able facing off with a Detroit defense that allows the 4th-most RB points per game. Detroit ranks just 21st in run defense DVOA, so both backs should have some success on the ground. Boston Scott saw 3 rushing attempts inside the 10 yard-line last week while Gainwell saw just 1, but Detroit is just as likely to give up a receiving score to a running back as a rushing one (6 of each allowed so far). The plus matchup, the Eagles implied point total of 25.75 this week, and Gainwell’s extensive usage as a receiver give him the edge over the backs listed after him in this section.
RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Herbert has handled at least 18 rushing attempts in each of the Bears last 3 games and should continue to operate as the lead back until David Montgomery returns. I do think Damien Williams will be more involved on passing downs this week than he was last week (he missed the entire practice week on the Covid list last week), and the Bears aren’t likely to be in as deep a hole on the scoreboard as they were last week, so Herbert probably won’t repeat his 5 receptions from last week. That shouldn’t be a huge concern as rushing volume is going to carry the day for Herbert again. The 49ers are a solid run defense, but nowhere near as stout as the Bucs defense Herbert shredded in week 7. He should be on the cusp of another RB2 week.
RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 8: @Chi.): On the other side of the Bears-49ers tilt, Elijah Mitchell will continue to lead the 49ers’ backfield this week. JaMycal Hasty did play a bigger role than I anticipated in his first game off the IR, playing about a third of the offensive snaps, but Mitchell was the ballcarrier on 18 of the team’s 21 RB rushing attempts. There is some risk that Hasty’s involvement grows as he gets further out from his injury, but I would expect Mitchell’s stranglehold on the early down work to continue for now. Mitchell hasn’t been as consistently efficient as Khalil Herbert, and Mitchell has had virtually zero passing game usage. That’s why I’d give Herbert a slight edge over Mitchell this week in spite of the 49ers being a better run defense than the Bears have been. Both are reasonable options if you need a fill-in RB2 or high-end flex running back.
RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 8: vs. Cin.): Carter has clearly established himself as the lead back for the Jets right now, as his share of backfield touches has gone from 56% to 59% to 63% in the last 3 games, and the switch to Mike White at QB could benefit him in the receiving game this week. 14 of White’s 32 attempts after replacing Zach Wilson last week were intended for Carter or Ty Johnson, with 9 of them going to Carter. The Bengals have allowed the 2nd-most receptions per game to running backs. The concern for Carter is that there just isn’t going to be much production on the ground, and there is minimal TD upside. The Jets have an implied total of just 16.5 points, and the Bengals rank 5th in run defense DVOA. Carter is a deeper flex option in PPR leagues.
RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. Was.): Williams turned in a strong performance Thursday night against the Browns despite rushing for just 20 yards. It was his receiving usage that paved the way as he set a season-high with 6 receptions and scored a receiving touchdown. He’s now caught at least 3 passes in 5 consecutive games, but the return of Jerry Jeudy is going to pull targets from somewhere. This is another week where Williams could struggle to be productive on the ground. Washington ranks 8th in run defense DVOA and give up the bulk of the damage they allow through the air. Javonte is likely going to need another ceiling receiving week to be a useful fantasy starter, and I don’t think that’s very likely with Jeudy back. Javonte’s full-on timeshare with Melvin Gordon caps him enough that I wouldn’t play him over any of the other rookie backs listed above.
WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 8: @Buf.): Waddle has now played 3 full games with starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, and he’s scored at least 15 PPR points in all 3. This week’s matchup is a tough one though. The Bills are allowing the 2nd-fewest WR points per game, and rank 1st in pass defense DVOA. Slot corner Taron Johnson is allowing just 4.6 yards per target and a 65.6 passer rating on throws into his coverage. Waddle is still likely to be peppered with targets in this game, so volume should get him into the PPR WR3 range. Just know there is more risk in this matchup than we’ve seen in the last couple weeks with Waddle.
QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 8: @LAC): Week 7 illustrated exactly why fantasy football managers are more excited about Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Zach Wilson this year despite Mac clearly playing the best ball of that group. Jones put on a clinic in week 7, throwing for more than 400 yards against the hapless Jets in a game where the Patriots piled up more than 50 points…and he barely cracked the top-10 QBs for the week. New England has the 6th-highest run rate in the red zone (they were the highest in 2020), and Mac isn’t the guy running the ball. He isn’t adding points with his legs, and the team’s penchant for running in the red zone caps Mac’s ceiling. He gets a much tougher matchup this week against the Chargers. LA has allowed the 5th-fewest QB points per game and ranks 5th in pass defense DVOA. This isn’t a spot to trot Jones out there even in 2-QB lineups.
QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Even with 81 rushing yards in the last two weeks, Fields hasn’t managed to post a 15-point fantasy day yet. There’s no way to reasonably recommend starting Fields given how bad this offense has looked in recent weeks, even in 2 QB formats. It’s promising that Fields is running the ball more, and at some point, the Bears will probably get things on track and get the rookie to a solid fantasy game. Unfortunately, no one will have him in their lineups when it finally happens.
QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 8: vs. LAR): Another week, another matchup against one of the best defenses in the NFL for Mills. Mills will be making his 6th start of the season this week (assuming Tyrod Taylor isn’t ready to return), and he’ll be facing a team ranked in the top-10 in pass defense DVOA for the 4th time, and a team in the top-5 for the 3rd time. In those first 3 meetings with top-10 defenses, Mills totaled 390 passing yards, 1 touchdown and 5 turnovers. There is no format where you should feel good about starting Davis Mills this week.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 8: @LAC): Stevenson flashed some surprising receiving skills in week 6, and then was back to being a healthy scratch in week 7. Bill Belichick loves to toy with us fantasy managers. Stevenson may be active again this week, but you certainly can’t count on it. The Chargers rank dead last in run defense DVOA, so there is upside for Stevenson if he sees any opportunity in this game, but I don’t expect him to see much of that.
RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. Pit.): Nick Chubb is expected to return this week, but even with Chubb sidelined, Felton was on the field for just 22 snaps and handled 5 touches last Thursday against the Broncos. Chubb’s return means we’ll likely only see Felton for a handful of snaps again. Even if Chubb isn’t back, Felton will be mostly the passing down back against a Steelers defense that allows the 7th-fewest RB points per game.
RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 8: @Chi): Sermon is now behind both Elijah Mitchell and JaMycal Hasty on the depth chart (and possibly Kyle Juszczyk too). Just don’t.
RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 8: vs. NE): Austin Ekeler spoke this week about wanting to see one of his fellow running backs take charge of the complementary back role in this backfield, but there’s no reason to believe it will be Rountree who steps up after he was limited to just special teams work in week 5 and was a healthy scratch in week 6 ahead of the Chargers’ bye. Ekeler did pop up on the injury report on Thursday with a hip injury, so it’s worth monitoring his status, but Rountree probably isn’t the guy seeing a big boost if Ekeler sits.
WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 8: vs. GB): Moore’s two biggest yardage days this season have come at home in Glendale, but his playing time just isn’t consistent enough to trust. The Arizona debut of Zach Ertz pushed Rondale to the lowest route participation rate he’s seen in the last few weeks, and his aDOT last week was negative. With the way he’s being used, he’s going to need some big yards after catch numbers to prove useful, and Green Bay has allowed the 7th-fewest yards after catch per game. Moore is nothing more than an upside dart throw on Thursday.
WR Amon-Ra St.Brown, DET (Wk. 8: vs. Phi.): From week 4 through week 6, Amon-Ra was targeted at least 7 times each game. In week 7, he shockingly went without a target despite being on the field for more than 60% of the Lions’ offensive snaps. I’d expect him to get more opportunities this week, but with only 2 teams on byes you can’t be desperate enough to bet on an ARSB bounce-back. The opportunities he does get will come mostly against Philly slot corner Avonte Maddox, who has allowed just 4.1 yards per target and a 65.4 passer rating on throws into his coverage. Stay away from Amon-Ra this week.
WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 8: vs. Cin.): I was halfway tempted to list Moore as a sleeper this week after the Jets traded for Joe Flacco. Flacco has had success throughout his career throwing the deep ball, and the Jets have frequently had Moore running downfield routes, but Mike White is going to get the start this week and Moore’s usage just isn’t consistent enough to trust him with such a dicey QB situation. Moore did score his first NFL touchdown last week on a 19-yard run, but it’s not a sign you should be getting him into your lineups.
WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 8: vs. LAR): If you read what I wrote about Davis Mills above, you know it’s a bad idea to roll the dice on Collins this week. Collins has totaled 11 targets in his two games since returning from injured reserve, but against defenses that rank in the top-10 in pass defense DVOA, Davis Mills averages just 130 passing yards per start. The Rams rank 4th. Yes, there could be a lot of passing volume for the Texans if they fall into a hole as two touchdown underdogs, but the only place Nico is worth consideration is as a cheap option in a DFS showdown tournament. His outlook wouldn’t get much of a boost if Tyrod Taylor is able to return this week.
WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 8: @Den.): Brown is expected to miss this week’s game in Denver and hasn’t been productive enough to be an option even if he was going to play.
WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 8: @Atl.): Marshall still isn’t practicing as of Wednesday after sustaining a week 6 concussion. I’d expect him to be out again, and don’t expect him to be very useful even if active.
TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 8: @Atl.): The Falcons allow the 12th-most tight end points per game, but Tremble hasn’t put up more than 12 receiving yards in any of the past 4 games. He isn’t a fantasy option right now.
Rookies on bye in week 8: WR Rashod Bateman, BAL
QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 8: @Chi.): Jimmy Garoppolo has been named the starter for the 49ers week 8 game against the Bears, but the changing of the guard at QB is coming sooner rather than later if the 49ers don’t start putting up some wins. Lance is a guy you should be stashing for the stretch run. We’ve already seen the kinds of fantasy points he can produce when given the opportunity. Lance put up 20 points in a single half in his first extended action of the season and managed to put up nearly 14 points in his first full game despite not producing a single touchdown. His rushing production gives him a very high floor, a ceiling few other QBs can match.
RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 8: @NYJ): Keep an eye on the injury report here as Evans didn’t practice Wednesday and is listed as questionable for this game, but if he’s good to go, there is a ton of upside for him in what could be a lopsided game. His usage is too questionable to trust in season-long leagues after last week was the Mixon & Perine show in this backfield, but this is a perfect matchup for Evans to make an impact. We’ve seen Evans post a 2-TD game against the Detroit Lions, and he has a similar ceiling in this one. The Jets allow the most running back receptions and receiving yards per game, and they’ve allowed 3 different receiving backs to clear 12 fantasy points against them (James White, Jeremy McNichols, and Brandon Bolden). Evans costs a measly $200 for Showdown contests on DraftKings this week.
WR Amari Rodgers, GB (Wk. 8: @Ari.): Green Bay is in a desperate situation at wide receiver this week with both Davante Adams and Allen Lazard placed on the Covid reserve list this week. Both players are expected to miss this game, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been ruled out for another week as well. That leaves Randall Cobb as the WR1, with some combo of Equanimeous St. Brown, Malik Taylor and Rodgers rounding out the WR group. Since the Covid updates came during the week, the DraftKings showdown prices for ESB and Rodgers remain extremely low ($600 and $400, respectively), but one or both will play a sizable role in this game. I do think we’ll see Aaron Jones and Robert Tonyan handle larger target shares than usual, but Green Bay is likely going to have to throw to keep pace with Arizona’s high-powered offense. The Cardinals allow the 16th-most WR points per game, so not a brutal matchup by any means. Rodgers is in play as a dart throw in those showdown contests, but should still be avoided in season-long formats.
TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 8: @Cle.): The Browns aren’t an easy matchup for tight ends, allowing the 11th-fewest points per game to the position, but Freiermuth seems to be the biggest beneficiary of the season-ending injury to Juju Smith-Schuster, and the Browns are much better against the run than the pass. It’s only been one game since the Juju injury, but Freiermuth saw his largest snap and highest target totals of the season, and I’d expect that increased usage to continue going forward. Freiermuth should be treated as a fringe TE1 this week.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! The last 7 days around the NFL have been an absolute whirlwind. We’ve seen a potential Hall of Famer get traded (Von Miller), another future Hall of Famer be proven to be dishonest about his vaccination status (Aaron Rodgers), a disgruntled star wide receiver get told to stay away from his team after allegedly orchestrating a social media campaign against his QB (Odell Beckham Jr.), and another star WR step away from football to work on his mental health (Calvin Ridley). The worst news of the week, however, was the arrest of Henry Ruggs, and the tragic circumstances around it. Ruggs was driving faster than 150 MPH while at twice the legal blood alcohol limit and crashed into and killed a young Las Vegas woman. Ruggs’ recklessness likely means the end of his NFL career, but that is the least important part of sorting through the wreckage that his irresponsible decisions caused.
None of these news updates even touch on the action we saw on the field last week, and that action was wild enough on its own. No one saw the Mike White-led Jets or Cooper Rush-led Cowboys picking up upset wins this week, or the ultra-durable Derrick Henry suffering a season-ending foot injury. I also didn’t see disappearing acts coming from Kyle Pitts, Kenneth Gainwell, and DeVonta Smith. Michael Carter, Elijah Mitchell, and Justin Fields pick up the rookie slack. Which rookies are going to step up in week 9 and help you fill in for your byes and injured players? Let’s take a look and find out.
A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game Let’s dive into week 9…
Rookies to Start:
RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 9: vs. Pit.): You already know to start Harris, but his recent usage has been in the Derrick Henry range. Over the past 3 games, Harris has averaged 24 carries and 5 targets per game, this week he faces a defense that has allowed over 130 rushing yards to opposing backs in each of their last 3 games. The Bears rank 24th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Harris is a locked-in RB1 again this week, even without stellar rushing efficiency.
WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 9: vs. Cle.): Chase had one of the worst fantasy games we’ve seen from him in his rookie season, with a season-low 32 receiving yards. He still finished the week as the WR27. He’s a must-start, and this week he faces a defense allowing the 15th-most WR points per game. Keep Chase locked into your lineups.
TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 9: @NO): Was week 8 a frustrating one for you if you started Kyle Pitts? You bet it was, but I’m comfortable going back to the well this week. The Falcons didn’t know until Sunday morning that they were going to be without star wide receiver Calvin Ridley and had no film on how the Panthers would deploy CB Stephon Gilmore, as he was making his first appearance for the team. With Ridley out, the Falcons offense was out of sorts, and Gilmore was able to shadow Pitts all game. Pitts’ production was terrible, finishing with just 2 catches for 13 yards on 6 targets, but his usage was a level rarely seen by a tight end. Pitts was in a route on 97% of Matt Ryan’s dropbacks, and those 6 targets still represented a 22% target share as Matt Ryan threw just 27 times. The Falcons will be able to prepare all week knowing they won’t have Ridley. They’re going to be much more creative in finding ways to ensure that Pitts isn’t followed around by Marshon Lattimore all day, and Pitts should be in line for a nice bounce back game. It’s true the Saints allow just the 5th-fewest TE points per game, but they’ve faced just one tight end all year that’s currently better than the TE20 on the season. Don’t run from the matchup. Pitts should be in your lineup this week unless you have an elite top-5 TE option to start over him.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 9: @Car.): If this were last year, the Panthers would be exactly the kind of defense Mac Jones would be licking his chops to face. The 2020 version of the Panthers were content to sit back in zone coverage and let teams pick them apart underneath, but not give up the deep ball. They had the 9th-lowest blitz rate, and the 12th-lowest press coverage rate in the league. The 2021 Panthers, on the other hand, have the 4th-highest rates in both areas. They play aggressive in coverage, and they get after you up front, and the addition of Stephon Gilmore has them back to playing defense at a high level after a few shakier defensive weeks. Jones has been efficient through his first half-season, but it hasn’t come with much fantasy upside, and this week could be a challenging one. The reason I list Mac as a borderline option is because I see him as a borderline QB2 this week. Four teams are sitting the week out on byes, and a few others are without their starting QBs as Aaron Rodgers, Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray, and Jameis Winston could all be out this week. I’d prefer Mac over bottom-of-the-barrel options like PJ Walker, Mike White, Jordan Love, and fellow rookies Trevor Lawrence & Justin Fields this week. He doesn’t have a big ceiling in this matchup, but he should have a reasonable floor.
RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 9: @Ind.): Carter dazzled in week 8, hauling in 9 receptions and finishing as the overall RB1 for the week. He’s clearly established himself as the lead back in this committee over Ty Johnson, and Mike White at QB has been a huge boost to his receiving production. White has targeted running backs on over 40% of his passes while Zach Wilson was below 20%. This week’s matchup isn’t an ideal one for Carter. The Colts rank 1st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 3rd-fewest RB points per game, and the Jets’ offense is expected to struggle with an implied total of just 18 points. Indy doesn’t give up a ton of receiving production to backs, allowing just 4 receptions and 33 yards per game to the position. With White at QB, the checkdowns are going to keep coming, so I do expect the Jets’ backs to out-pace those receiving averages the Colts have allowed. Carter just doesn’t possess the same ceiling this week that he did against the Bengals. He’s a low-end RB2 option in PPR leagues, and a little lower than that in half-PPR. If I were going to target Jets’ pass catchers in showdown contests, Carter, Jamison Crowder, and Elijah Moore would be my choices.
RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 9: vs. NE): The Panthers might get Christian McCaffrey back this week…or they might not get him back for two more weeks. It’s hard to say with any certainty at this point, but the Panthers did open his practice window to potentially return. If McCaffrey is ready to go this week, don’t play Hubbard. If he sits again, Hubbard should be in good position to post an RB2 week. Of the trio of rookie lead backs who don’t catch many passes (Hubbard/Elijah Mitchell/Khalil Herbert), Chuba has the most favorable matchup this week. The Patriots rank a middling 17th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 18th-most RB points per game. They’re not an inviting matchup, but they aren’t as daunting as those faced by the other rookie backs. Keep an eye on the injury report and make sure CMC sits before locking in Chuba in your lineups.
RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 9: vs. Ari.): Mitchell had a big game against the Bears last Sunday, rolling up over 130 yards and a touchdown, but the sledding will be a bit tougher this week. The Cardinals rank 9th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 7th-fewest RB points per game. They’ve also probably seen enough film on Mitchell to know he’s kind of a one-trick pony. He doesn’t catch passes, and he hasn’t had much success running between the tackles. 13 of his 15 rushes of 10+ yards this year have come either off-tackle, or on the outside. The Bears allow the 2nd-highest yards per rush average on those kinds of carries. The Cardinals allow the 18th-highest average. Mitchell is still the lead back in an offense that wants to run the ball. He’s got a questionable tag with a rib injury, so keep an eye on his status, but if he plays, he should be a solid flex option with upside this week.
RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 9: @Pit.): The Bears have opened the practice window for David Montgomery to return from IR, so this may be your last opportunity to get Herbert into your lineups before he’s relegated to backup duty again. He’s proven to be an outstanding runner in his first few opportunities this year, but he seemed to hit a wall in the second half against the 49ers last Sunday. Khalil tallied just 8 scrimmage yards in the second half on 10 carries and 1 reception. The Steelers are an even better run defense than the 49ers, ranking 6th in run defense DVOA, and allowing the 6th-fewest RB points per game. If Montgomery is out again this week, Herbert is still a reasonable RB3 option, but know that it could be tough sledding for him against the Steelers.
RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 9: @Dal.): This is your weekly ‘Javonte Williams is going to touch the ball about a dozen times and may or may not post a useful fantasy stat-line with them’ update. Dallas has been solid against the run, ranking 11th in run defense DVOA, and allowing the 7th-fewest RB points per game. Dallas has given up just 4 running back TDs all year, and you’ll probably need a score to feel good about starting Javonte. He’s an RB3 option if you’re desperate.
WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): Waddle had a down game against a tough Bills’ defense in week 8, but he should get back on track against the Texans on Sunday. After facing Taron Johnson last week, the Texans’ secondary will be a sight for sore eyes. Waddle has averaged just over 10 targets per game since Tua returned to the lineup, and the Texans are allowing the 13th-most WR points per game. Waddle should pile up enough catches to post a strong PPR WR3 game.
WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 9: vs. Min.): Since returning from IR, Bateman has played more than 60% of the offensive snaps and seen 6 targets in both games he’s been active for. This week he gets to face a Minnesota defense allowing the 6th-most WR points per game. I expect the Ravens to continue to get their 1st round pick involved in this good matchup. The Ravens still don’t throw enough to make Bateman a truly safe play along with Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews, but he should be a reasonable WR3/4 option this week in all formats.
WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 9: vs. LV): Toney seems likely to play this week despite suffering yet another injury Monday night against the Chiefs. It also appears that Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay will return to action as well, so it remains to be seen just how big a target share Toney is going to get. I expect the Giants want him involved after his breakout games a few weeks ago, but his ceiling might not be as high this week against the Raiders. 58% of Toney’s yards on the season have come after the catch, and Vegas has allowed the 2nd-fewest yards after catch in the league. Toney is still in play as a WR3/4 option, but I’d take a long look at your other available options before pulling the trigger.
WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 9: vs. LAC): Smith remains an infuriating player if you have him on your fantasy rosters. He dominates usage in this passing game, still sitting at a 23% target share and nearly 40% air yard share for the season, but he just isn’t converting those things into fantasy points. For the season, he’s scored fewer points than Van Jefferson, Hunter Renfrow, and Kendrick Bourne. He’s much closer to a must-sit than a must-start at this point, but the usage keeps alive the hope of a tantalizing ceiling. The Chargers probably aren’t the team that he’ll reach it against. They’ve allowed the 2nd-fewest WR points per game, and rank 4th in pass defense DVOA. Smith is in the ‘only if you’re desperate’ category this week.
TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 9: vs. Chi.): Freiermuth faces a tough matchup on paper this week against a Chicago defense that has allowed the 2nd-fewest tight end points per game, but his target volume keeps him in the TE streamer discussion this week. The rookie has been targeted 7 times in each game since JuJu Smith-Schuster went down for the season, and that volume should continue going forward. With TJ Hockenson and Gronk on a bye, Noah Fant on the covid list, you may be looking for a replacement this week. There are probably streaming options with higher upside than Freiermuth this week, but the Steelers’ TE should be a safe floor play who should clear 40 yards.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 9: @Pit.): Fields finally posted the kind of game we’ve been waiting for from him last Sunday, but I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance this week against a talented Pittsburgh defense. His big day last week was a result of over 100 yards and a score running the ball, and so far, the Steelers have only allowed 1 quarterback to rush for more than 11 yards against them. Matt Nagy returns to the sideline this week, giving Fields another obstacle to overcome. I would view him as a very tail end QB2 option this week.
QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 9: vs. Buf.): The Bills have only allowed 1 quarterback all season to post a top-12 finish against them, and I don’t like Lawrence’s chances to make it 2. In week 8, Lawrence saw his efficiency levels fall back to where they were in the first few weeks of the season despite facing a burnable Seattle defense. This week he takes on a Buffalo unit that ranks 1st in pass defense DVOA, has allowed the fewest QB points per game, and has forced 12 QB turnovers in their last 6 games, with at least one in every contest. They’ve been a defensive buzzsaw and are not a great spot to hope for a Lawrence bounce back after his down game last week. Garbage time may give Lawrence more upside this week than Mac Jones, but his floor is lower. I’d keep the rookie parked on my bench.
QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 9: @Mia.): In case you missed the news, Tyrod Taylor will be back from IR and starting at QB for the Texans this week. Across his 6 starts, Mills faced an absolute gauntlet of defenses. The Colts were the only team he started against that doesn’t rank in the top-12 in the league at limiting QB points, and now he goes back to the bench as the Texans prepare to face a Miami team that allows the 3rd-most points to the position. Sometimes the world just isn’t fair.
RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 9: vs. LAC): Like everyone else, I too was shocked that the Eagles phased Gainwell out of their offense against the Lions last weekend. I expected a lot of Boston Scott and Gainwell in the backfield with Miles Sanders sidelined, but the Eagles opted to use Jordan Howard as the 2nd RB instead of the rookie. The final stat sheet actually shows Gainwell led the backfield in touches, but almost all of his opportunities came in the 4th quarter after the other two backs had each found the end zone twice. I don’t expect Gainwell to only have 1 touch through the first 3 quarters again this week, but I do expect the Eagles to have a similar gameplan against a Chargers’ defense allowing the most RB rushing yards per game. It clearly worked well last week, and I expect a lot of Boston Scott and Jordan Howard again this week. Gainwell may play a bit more, but I’d shy away from using him in any fantasy lineups this week.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 9: @Car.): The Patriots backfield after Damien Harris continues to be a conundrum to sort out each week. Even if Stevenson works as the team RB2 this week, which is far from a certainty, he’s going to see limited opportunity against a defense allowing the 2nd-fewest RB points per game.
RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 9: @Phi.): Rountree may get a bit more run this week against a defense that has allowed the 3rd-most RB points per game thanks to an injury to Justin Jackson, but it’s hard to know exactly how big that role will be behind Austin Ekeler. He’s gotten additional run in games the Chargers have won easily, so if you think they run away with this game, Rountree may have some desperation flex-appeal in non-PPR leagues. I wouldn’t count on him though.
RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 9: vs. Cle.): Evans should return from injury this week, but the Browns allow the 9th-fewest RB receptions per game, and we’ve seen Evans be productive exactly 1 time in the 5 games where he saw snaps.
RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 9: @Cin.): With Nick Chubb back on the field last week, Felton totaled just 1 rushing attempt and 1 target. He’s not worth a roster spot in season-long leagues.
RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 9: vs. Ari.): Sermon hasn’t played an offensive snap since week 5…when he played all of 2 offensive snaps. Nothing to see here.
WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 9: @SF): Moore could move into a more prominent role this week with AJ Green on the Covid list, but he’ll have to be utilized differently to cash in on the opportunity. The majority of Moore’s work this season has come on short passes behind the line of scrimmage or just a few yards downfield, and the 49ers have allowed the 3rd-fewest yards after catch in the league this year. Moore could pile up a bunch of short catches to help in PPR formats, but I don’t see him posting a quality fantasy line for you this week.
WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 9: vs. NE): Marshall has a good chance to return to action this week as he practiced in full on Wednesday, but he’ll likely be doing so with PJ Walker at quarterback, and Marshall averaged just 2.7 catches and 23 yards per game when things were good in this passing game the first 4 weeks of the season. I can’t see him putting up a productive game his first week back. If you get him into any lineups, you’re just crossing your fingers that he scores a TD.
WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 9: @Cin.): There is a small amount of upside this week for Schwartz with Odell Beckham Jr. essentially booted off the team. In the first two games of the season with OBJ sidelined with injury, Schwartz played right around 50% of the offensive snaps and saw a handful of deep targets. The concern here is that Schwartz still may find himself 4th on the WR depth chart this week if Donovan Peoples-Jones is able to return from injury. In week 1, Rashard Higgins played just 4 offensive snaps, but he’s been a fixture in 3-WR sets since, and Schwartz isn’t going to play much over Jarvis Landry or Peoples-Jones. If DPJ sits, Schwartz has some dart throw upside in the deepest of leagues and DFS tournaments, but otherwise he should be avoided.
WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 9: @Phi.): Palmer scored his first career TD last week, but he also played the fewest snaps he’s seen since week 4. Don’t be fooled by the touchdown. There’s no change here for Palmer. He remains waiver fodder.
TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 9: vs. NE): Tremble is playing enough to get mentioned every week but isn’t seeing enough usage to warrant lineup consideration. He’s seen 12 targets come his way over the last 4 games but hasn’t topped 20 receiving yards in any game and found the end zone just once. There isn’t any reason to expect that to change against a New England defense that’s allowing the 3rd-fewest TE points per game.
Rookies on Bye in week 9: RB Jaret Patterson, WAS, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET, WR Dyami Brown, WAS, WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 9: @Ind.): Moore’s playing time in week 8 was less than encouraging (on the field for just 36% of the offensive snaps in a game Corey Davis missed), but what he did with his playing time is worth some attention. The rookie had his best game of the season, catching all 6 of his targets for 67 yards, and throwing in a 4-yard rush for good measure. I’d be surprised if his playing time doesn’t tick up a bit this week, and the Colts have struggled to defend undersized speed receivers who play on the outside. Brandin Cooks posted 9-89 against them. Tyler Lockett put up 4-100-2. Marquise Brown posted 9-125-2. Moore will likely need Mike White to take a few deep shots to cash in this week the way those guys have against the Colts, but the opportunity is there for Moore to improve on what he did a week ago.
WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 9: @Mia.): The return of Tyrod Taylor to the lineup should open up the deeper passing game this week, and the Dolphins allow the 2nd-most WR points per game and have allowed the 2nd-most air yards on completed passes this year. Taylor’s return and the matchup are certainly more beneficial for WR1 Brandin Cooks than for Nico, but there is plenty of DFS upside for Collins in a game that has some shootout potential. Collins costs just $3,600 on DraftKings.
TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 9: @Mia.): I list Jordan here more as a guy to stash in deeper leagues than to start this week. He was active for the first time all season in week 8 thanks to Pharaoh Brown being out with injury, and he made the most of the opportunity with a 3-41-1 line on 4 targets. The Texans’ season is going nowhere fast, and at some point, it will behoove them to see what they have in the youngster after he caught for 72 yards and nearly a touchdown per game at Miami last year. Jordan does have sneaky DFS appeal this week if Brown misses another game. The Dolphins rank 26th in pass defense DVOA, and Jordan costs the minimum on DraftKings.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! The last two weeks have made us rethink everything we thought we knew about the NFL this season, but here’s hoping things get back to normal this week. Week 8 saw unheralded QBs Mike White, Cooper Rush and Trevor Siemian lead their teams to huge upset wins. Week 9 saw the Bills fall to the Jaguars, the Cowboys throttled by Denver, and the Rams look lost against the Derrick Henry-less Titans. It was an eventful week for the rookies too. Ja’Marr Chase posted the worst game of his rookie campaign and Kyle Pitts underwhelmed again, but DeVonta Smith and Elijah Moore had the kind of games we’ve been waiting for from them. Jaylen Waddle topped 80 yards for the 2nd time this year, and Javonte Williams ran for over 100 for the first time. Hopefully there are more rookie firsts in store for us this weekend, but I’m here still here to walk you through what to expect from the rookies this weekend even if there aren’t.
A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game Let’s dive into week 10…
RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. Det.): As usual, you don’t need me to tell you to start Harris this week, but this is an especially good spot for the rookie. Detroit has allowed the 2nd-most RB points per game and rank 25th in Football Outsiders run defense DVOA stat. He should be an automatic chalk play in DFS cash games, and not a bad tournament option either. Just be aware that he’s going to be in a LOT of lineups. We’ve seen some baffling performances by clear chalk picks in recent weeks, but Najee is a very strong bet to post a top-12 performance this week, with an RB1 overall ceiling.
WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 10: vs. Bal.): Waddle has very quietly hauled in the 6th-most receptions in the league so far. He’s had 8+ targets come his way in each of the last 4 games and posted 15+ PPR points in 3 of them. The Ravens are a tough matchup, allowing the 10th-fewest WR points per game. Slot corner Tavon Young has allowed just a 58.0 passer rating on throws into his coverage. I still expect Waddle’s volume to rule the day. He’s going to get enough work to make up for it. Brissett starting again lowers his overall ceiling, but Waddle is a safe WR3 in PPR formats this week.
TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 10: @Dal.): Pitts has topped at least 50 receiving yards in 5 of his last 7 games and gets to face a Dallas defense allowing the 12th-most TE points per game. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Trevon Diggs cover the rookie a fair amount, but Diggs has been prone to giving up big plays, allowing 15.8 yards per completion into his coverage. We already know Pitts can produce big plays, averaging nearly 20 yards per catch over the last 3 weeks. Pitts remains a top-6 tight end option in this one.
TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. Det.): Freiermuth’s run of recent success continued in week 9. He’s now been targeted at least 6 times and caught for over 40 yards in 3 straight games, topping 14 fantasy points in each of the last two, and now gets to face a Detroit defense that ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA. The Lions have only allowed the 11th-fewest TE points per game but opposing offenses have been able to pick them apart wherever they choose to, and the Steelers are going to continue to pepper Freiermuth with targets. George Kittle, Mark Andrews and Dallas Goedert all broke 70 receiving yards against this defense. With Chase Claypool potentially sidelined, the Steelers may have to rely on the rookie tight end even more. He’s a top-10 tight end play this week, and a bargain for main slate DFS contests, where top options like Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Mike Gesicki, George Kittle and Darren Waller are not available.
QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 10: @Ind.): The Jaguars stunned the football world with a victory over the Bills last weekend, but it was a second straight clunker of a fantasy game for Lawrence, and the second straight game where the Jaguars failed to score 10 points as a team. This week looks much more promising for the #1 overall pick. James Robinson should be back in action, taking some of the offensive burden off the quarterback, and he gets to face a Colts’ defense that has allowed the 3rd-most points per game to QBs and ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA. I like Trevor’s chances of accounting for multiple TDs in this game and finishing as a fringe QB1.
RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 10: vs. Phi.): It was great to see Williams top 100 rushing yards for the first time in his burgeoning career last Sunday, but don’t be fooled into thinking the season-high 17 carries were a sign of things to come for him. Melvin Gordon still carried the ball 21 times in a game that the Broncos controlled throughout. This is still a full-on timeshare, but it’s a full-on timeshare facing a favorable matchup. The Eagles have allowed the 5th-most RB points per game, and Williams has consistently been the more efficient back of the duo. Philly’s recent shift to a run-heavy game plan could put a dent in the overall number of plays run in this one, so Williams might not have quite the same ceiling in this one that he would’ve a few weeks ago, but he should finish as a top-24 back in week 10.
RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 10: vs. LAR): Week 9 was at least a little concerning if you have Mitchell on your roster after he saw his 2nd-lowest touch total of the season. A lot of that can be chalked up to game script. JaMycal Hasty was operating as the 3rd-down back, and the 49ers were in catch-up mode for most of the game. The problem is that the 49ers could find themselves in a similar boat on Monday night. The Rams are only favored by 4 but will be looking for a get-right game after stumbling against the Titans. The 49ers also will likely activate Jeff Wilson Jr. for the first time this season, who could siphon playing time from the rookie. For now, I’m operating under the assumption that Mitchell will continue to be the lead back and see him as a low-end RB2 option against a solid Rams’ defense that adds Von Miller into the mix this week. The Rams have had more struggles with receiving backs (D’Andre Swift, Gio Bernard) than pure runners.
RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 10: vs. Buf.): The matchup here isn’t great, but Carter’s usage has been consistent, and he gets checkdown hero Mike White back under center. The Bills don’t allow much RB receiving production, giving up the fewest RB receptions and 4th-fewest RB receiving yards in the league, but the ball is still going to find its way to Carter. He’s seen 15+ touches in each of the last 3 weeks and should see similar usage here. The ceiling is low, but Carter should be able to return an RB3-worthy performance in PPR formats.
WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 10: @Mia.): Bateman hasn’t played in a game with Sammy Watkins active yet, but it’s hard to imagine the 1st-round rookie will take a major backseat to the veteran in Watkins’ first game back. Bateman has played more than 60% of the offensive snaps in each game he’s been active for and seen at least 6 targets in each. I expect another 6+ targets tonight. Bateman is an upside WR3 play this week against the Dolphins, who allow the 3rd-most WR points per game. Don’t let Watkins scare you off firing him up if you were considering starting him when you expected Sammy to sit.
WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 10: @Den.): Here’s hoping last Sunday was a sign that Smith and Jalen Hurts are finally on the same page, but I’m not ready yet to declare that they definitely are. Smith has dominated air yards in this passing game all season, but the Eagles’ recent recommitment to the running game has lowered his margin for error. He’s seen 3 of his 4 lowest target totals of the season in the last 4 games and totaled just 107 receiving yards in the 3 games prior to his 5-116-1 breakout last week. The Broncos allow the 14th-fewest WR points per game. Smith is back to being a boom-or-bust WR3 this week.
WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 10: vs. Buf.): Last week was the breakout performance we’ve been waiting for from Moore, with 2 touchdowns, but I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance. Corey Davis should return to the lineup, and the Jets face a Buffalo defense that allows the fewest WR points per game. With Mike White back under center, there’s still a chance at a floor week for Moore, but that likely means closer to 40 yards than the 60+ we’ve seen the last couple weeks. He’s in play as a WR4 in deeper PPR leagues, but I’d probably lean away from him in most leagues.
QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 10: vs. Cle.): Jones faces a Cleveland defense that has allowed the 11th-most QB points per game, but this defensive unit has been much better than that number implies. They’ve been shredded a few times this season, by star quarterbacks Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, and Patrick Mahomes. In their other 6 games, they’ve allowed just 11.2 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. No QB they’ve faced in the last 3 weeks has reached 15. I’d be hesitant to play Mac anywhere this week unless you have to in a superflex or 2-QB league.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 10: vs. Cle.): Stevenson is fighting to get himself cleared from the concussion protocol this week, as is teammate Damien Harris. As of now, I would guess that neither guy gets cleared, but Stevenson should function as the lead back if he gets cleared and Harris doesn’t. Even in that case, he’s no more than a fringe option for deeper leagues. The Browns rank 5th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 9th-fewest RB points per game.
RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 10: @NE): Felton was placed on the Browns’ Covid-reserve list this week along with Nick Chubb, but since both players are vaccinated there is a chance that one or both could get cleared in time for this game. If Felton gets cleared and Chubb doesn’t, the rookie will play a larger role than usual in this offense, but it still won’t be one worthy of starting in your lineups. In the one game this season where Chubb and Kareem Hunt were both inactive, Felton played a season-high 22 offensive snaps, but he handled just 2 rushing attempts and 3 targets in that game. There’s a glimmer of hope for Felton as the Patriots allow the 3rd-most RB receiving yards per game and he’s a pass catching specialist, but the upside isn’t great enough to chase here.
RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 10: @Den.): Gainwell got into the end zone last weekend, but he was on the field for just 11 offensive snaps and handled only 2 offensive touches. He’s a non-factor in this offense right now, and you can’t start him until that changes.
RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 10: @Ari.): The return of Christian McCaffrey sends Hubbard back to being nothing more than a handcuff with little to no standalone value. Chuba played just 10 snaps in week 9, even with McCaffrey playing less than half of the offensive plays. Ameer Abdullah worked as the RB2 ahead of Hubbard. As McCaffrey’s workload gets ramped back up in the coming weeks, Hubbard will have even less of a chance to play a fantasy relevant role.
RB Jermar Jefferson, DET (Wk. 10: @Pit.): Jamaal Williams still isn’t practicing as of Wednesday, and Jefferson posted 12.9 PPR points in week 8 with Williams sidelined, but there is no reason to count on a repeat performance here. The bulk of Jefferson’s points came on a 4th quarter garbage time drive that he capped with a touchdown. Through the first 3 quarters, D’Andre Swift handled 17 of Detroit’s 22 running back touches, and the leftover touches were split between Jefferson and Godwin Igwebuike. You don’t need me to tell you that spitting less than 25% of the backfield touches against a team allowing the 3rd-fewest RB points per game isn’t an ideal situation to start a running back.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 10: @Pit.): ARSB is consistently playing right around 70% of Detroit’s offensive snaps, but it isn’t translating to a ton of fantasy production. He’s fine if you’re looking for 8-10 PPR points without upside for a lot more, but most of us should be looking for a higher ceiling. The Steelers have allowed double-digit PPR games to several slot WRs this year - Cole Beasley, Randall Cobb, Hunter Renfrow, and Tyler Boyd – but St. Brown will likely need to find the end zone to make him a worthwhile start. He’s yet to do that all season.
WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 10: vs. Car.): It’s a new week, but it’s the same story for Rondale, who just isn’t seeing deep enough targets to put up fantasy points. He’s topped 40 scrimmage yards just once since his breakout game in week 2. The Panthers have allowed the 5th-fewest yards after catch this season, making this an unlikely spot for a surprise big performance.
WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 10: @NE): Schwartz did see a jump in playing time in week 9 with Odell Beckham Jr. given the boot. He played more than 50% of the offensive snaps but garnered just one target that he hauled in for 15 yards last week. The Browns are likely to use him as a situational deep threat the rest of the way, but the Patriots aren’t especially vulnerable to the deep ball, allowing just 3 completions of 40+ yards this season.
WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 10: @Ari.): Marshall returned from a two-week absence to just a 37% snap share and one target despite the Panthers trailing for the majority of the game and needing to throw. Carolina also lost QB Sam Darold for the next 4+ weeks. While that could be a good thing for the Panthers’ passing game given Darnold’s struggles, the biggest beneficiaries are likely to be DJ Moore and Robby Anderson. Backup QB PJ Walker has thrown about 60% of his career pass attempts to those two receivers (42 of 71), and I expect it to be Walker under center this week as Cam gets up to speed. Keep Marshall sidelined until his production gives us a reason not to.
WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 10: @GB): I only mention Eskridge this week because he’s officially returned to practice after missing half the season due to a concussion suffered in week 1. Eskridge was being used as part-time gadget player before getting hurt in week 1, but his 2nd round draft capital speaks to grander plans that the Seahawks may have for him. It’s worth monitoring how the Seahawks utilize him against the Packers if he’s able to return to action.
TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 10: @Ari.): I keep waiting for the week where Tremble turns his playing time into production, but he’s now played 45% or more of the offensive snaps in 4 straight games and hasn’t reached even 20 yards in any of them. He remains waiver fodder.
Rookies on bye in week 10: QB Justin Fields, CHI, QB Davis Mills, HOU, RB Khalil Herbert, CHI, RB Chris Evans, CIN, WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN, WR Kadarius Toney, NYG, WR Nico Collins, HOU, TE Brevin Jordan, HOU
RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 10: vs. TB): It’s easy to forget what a team coming off a bye did in their last game, but it was Patterson that led Washington in rushing attempts and rushing yards in week 8 against Denver, finishing with 11 carries for 46 yards. It was clear Washington was trying to limit Antonio Gibson’s snaps headed into the bye week, but it’s not clear if the bye week fixed the problem for Gibson. His practice schedule this week has mirrored what he was doing in the weeks prior to the bye, and it’s entirely possible Washington continues to severely limit his playing time coming out of it. Washington is sitting at 2-6 and is very likely to fall to 2-7 this week. It’s only a matter of time before they shut Gibson down for the season if his shin isn’t improving. Patterson is unlikely to have much success running against the stout Bucs front this week, but if he leads the backfield in carries again you probably won’t be able to get him for free for much longer in deep leagues. If you’re desperate for RB help down the stretch, Patterson is a worthwhile speculative add.
RB Kene Nwangwu, MIN (Wk. 10: @LAC): None of us like having to talk about what’s going on with Dalvin Cook right now, but there’s no avoiding the fact that it could affect his availability in the second half of the season. As of right now he’s eligible to play, but there’s no way to be certain that won’t change. Obviously, Alexander Mattison would be the biggest beneficiary on the football field if Dalvin were to miss time, but Nwangwu would start finding his way onto the field as well. The rookie is a special teams standout who returned a kick for a score last week. With Ameer Abdullah out of the way, Nwangwu would be the clear RB2 on this team behind Mattison if Dalvin does become ineligible. He’s a speculative add for deep dynasty leagues, especially those that give points for return yards.
WR Jaelon Darden, TB (Wk. 10: @Was.): The Bucs may be without both Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown this week in a matchup against the defense allowing the 2nd-most WR points per game. Darden likely would see a healthy number of slot snaps playing behind Mike Evans and Tyler Johnson and has some PPR upside in deep leagues. Darden is a guy the Bucs have tried to get the ball to when he’s on the field. He’s seen 5 targets and 1 rushing attempt on just 25 snaps. The floor here is a goose egg, but don’t be surprised if Darden puts up 8-10 PPR points this week.
WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 10: vs. TB): Brown is only in play in DFS contests this week, but he should be in line for a lot of playing time in a game where game script should keep the Football Team throwing with Tampa favored by nearly 10 points. Brown missed week 5 with injury, and then returned to an 80% snap share and 6 targets in week 6 against Kansas City. The Bucs allow the 11th-most WR points per game and have allowed the 9th-most completions of 20+ yards in the league. Assuming he’s able to play, Dyami has reasonable upside and costs just $200 in DraftKings showdown contests for this game.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! The NFL world continued to be upside down in week 10. The Dolphins stunned the Ravens on Thursday night, the 49ers throttled the Rams on Monday night, and the Lions managed to wrestle a tie from the jaws of victory. Mac Jones threw for 3 touchdowns and Rhamondre Stevenson and DeVonta Smith each scored two, but other than that it was a mostly quiet week for the rookies. The usual suspects had reasonable games (Najee, Waddle, Pitts, Carter), and some backups found the end zone, but not a lot to re-hash. I have a feeling week 11 is going to be a little spicier for the rookies, and I’m excited to take a look at what the upcoming weekend holds in store for them.
A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game Let’s dive into week 11…
Rookies to Start:
RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 11: @LAC): You were already going to play Najee Harris in all formats this week, but I really want to drive home the point that this is a smash spot for the rookie. The Chargers rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and have allowed the 4th-most RB points per game. Harris was in a similar smash spot a week ago against the Lions, but the Steelers’ entire offense sputtered with Mason Rudolph under center. Najee didn’t have a bad game by any means. He topped 130 scrimmage yards and finished as the RB15 for the week, but he didn’t quite live up to his lofty expectations. If Rudolph is at QB again this week, I’d expect a similar borderline RB1 performance from him. If Big Ben returns, the sky is the limit.
RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 11: vs. Mia.): The Jets are switching to Joe Flacco at QB this week, but that shouldn’t change things much for Carter. Flacco may not be quite as conservative as Mike White and will take some shots downfield, but he’ll have no issues checking down to Carter and Ty Johnson. Carter has handled at least 13 times in each of the past 6 games, and 19+ times in 3 of the last 4. He should be in line for another solid workload, and the Dolphins aren’t a defense to be afraid of. Miami is a middling RB defense, allowing the 14th-fewest points per game to the position. Carter is a much more trustworthy option this week than fringe options like Rhamondre Stevenson, D’Ernest Johnson, or D’Onta Foreman. Carter has finished as a top-15 running back in 3 of the last 4 weeks.
WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 11: @LV): Chase was trending in the wrong direction headed into the bye week after posting 2 of his 3 worst fantasy games of the season in weeks 8 & 9. The Raiders’ defense should fix what’s ailed him. The Raiders haven’t given up a ton of WR points, but they rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA and are coming off their worst defensive game of the season. Don’t get cute and consider sitting Chase this week. He should be a locked in WR2.
WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 11: @NYJ): In PPR formats, Waddle is now locked in as a weekly upside WR3. He’s going to get plenty of volume in this offense, especially while DeVante Parker and Will Fuller remain sidelined. The Jets are a middling matchup on paper, allowing the 14th-most WR points per game, but they rank dead last in pass defense DVOA. Jets’ slot corner Michael Carter has allowed a 77% completion percentage and nearly 8 yards per target on throws into his coverage. Waddle should have no problem posting another solid, volume-drive top-30 performance in PPR formats.
TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 11: vs. NE): Pitts has been a frustrating player to have rostered this season. The underlying usage (route participation, target share, etc.) has been worthy of an elite TE, but the production hasn’t matched that. Defenses have been able to key on Pitts with Calvin Ridley missing games, and the Falcons’ overall offense has been a mess at times. Pitts still finished as the TE12 and TE15 the last two weeks in two abysmal games. Yes, the Patriots are going to try to take him away Thursday night, but he only needs a handful of catches to return top-10 value at the position and the Falcons don’t have a lot of other options to throw the ball to. I wouldn’t fault you for sitting him if you had another stud tight end to start over him, but if you’re looking at guys like Dan Arnold, Freiermuth, or Zach Ertz to start over him, you shouldn’t be.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 11: @Atl.): Jones is coming off the first 3-touchdown performance of his career and gets to face a hapless Atlanta defense that allows the 3rd-most QB points per game. This is the perfect opportunity to fire up Mac Jones, right? As Lee Corso would say, “not so fast, my friends.” Jones has played the best football of any rookie QB this season, but it’s resulted in just 1 game with 20+ fantasy points. There are 9 QBs that have averaged 21 fantasy points per game or more. In fact, the point total that earned Jones a QB4 finish last week wouldn’t have been better than QB9 in any other week this season, and would only have been a top-12 performance in two other weeks. He does not have the ceiling you want in a starting QB in 1-QB formats, even in a great matchup like this. The Pats don’t throw enough, and they don’t push the ball downfield enough when they do to make Mac a viable top-10 QB option. In superflex leagues, Mac is a great, safe QB2 play this week, but he’s nothing more than a fringe play if you’re looking for a QB1. I expect the Patriots to lean on their run game unless they’re somehow playing from behind and have to throw.
QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 11: vs. SF): Lawrence is coming off two terrible fantasy performances in the last two weeks but has a chance to bounce back against the 49ers. San Francisco looked great on Monday night slowing down Matt Stafford and the Rams, but for the season they’ve allowed the 7th-most QB points per game and have been especially vulnerable to running quarterbacks. The 49ers have allowed 5 different QBs to run for more than 20 yards against them (including Carson Wentz) and allowed 4 of them to run for a touchdown. Lawrence has run for 20+ yards five times this season, and that rushing upside this week could provide a boost. He’s only in play in superflex leagues, but Trevor is a better play this week than you might think.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 11: @Atl.): It’s hard to not be excited by the game Rhamondre put up last Sunday, rolling to 114 scrimmage yards, a pair of touchdowns, and an RB2 overall finish with Damien Harris sidelined by a concussion. We all want to see more Rhamondre, and the hope is that Bill Belichick rides Stevenson’s hot hand rather than give the job back to Damien Harris. I’m not confident that’s going to happen. Stevenson has played more snaps than Harris just twice all season. One of those games was in week 5 against the Texans, where Harris battled through an injury suffered early in the game and the Patriots battled a negative game script. The other was last week when Harris was inactive. Outside of those two games Harris has functioned as the clear lead back, and I expect that to happen again Thursday night. The good news for Rhamondre is that the Patriots are a touchdown favorite and will probably have ample opportunity to run the ball. He’s also more involved in the passing game than Harris. If you’re considering Stevenson, I expect him to have around a dozen touches operating as the RB2 behind Harris, maybe a bit more if the Pats pull away. He’s an upside flex option.
RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 11: @Jax.): Mitchell came away from last week’s win over the Rams with a broken finger that has kept him out of practice this week. Kyle Shanahan still expects him to play this week, but you need to make sure he’s active before plugging him in. It’s worth mentioning that the return of Jeff Wilson Jr. looks like it’s going to be a problem for Mitchell. Elijah played his lowest snap share since week 4, and even gave way to Deebo Samuel for some RB snaps. You could argue the 49ers were resting him due to being way ahead for much of the night, but Mitchell was in the game getting carries on the 49ers final drive. The injury this week just makes it even more likely that he plays less than his usual workload. The Jaguars are not as inviting a matchup as you’d think. Jacksonville ranks 7th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 13th-fewest RB rushing yards per game despite the fact they’re usually playing from behind. I think Mitchell is a dicey flex option this week, especially if your league gives points for receptions. Mitchell should be able to carry the ball with a pin in his broken finger, but catching it? I’m not so sure. He could see even less receiving work than usual.
WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 11: @Chi.): Bateman was frustratingly rotated with Sammy Watkins for much of last Thursday’s game, but down the stretch when the Ravens needed to throw, Bateman was heavily involved. Marquise Brown isn’t practicing as of Thursday, and that means Bateman could function as the team’s WR1 this week. He’s averaged 7 targets per game since his return from IR, and the Bears are allowing the 4th-most WR points per game and rank 19th in pass defense DVOA. If Brown plays, Bateman is an upside WR3 option again this week, but if Brown sits, it pushes Shoddy B closer to the WR2 range.
WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 11: vs. NO): Smith has posted back-to-back 20-point games, but I’d give it some thought before firing him up in lineups this week. The Eagles have shifted their offense drastically toward the running game in recent weeks, averaging just 19 pass attempts per game in their last 3 contests. At some point, negative game script is going to force them back into throwing, but I’m not sure it’ll be this week against the Trevor Siemian-led Saints. If the Eagles don’t throw more, you’re counting on Smith making a big splash on limited volume if you play him, and he gets a tough individual matchup with week with shadow coverage from Marshon Lattimore. Smith is only getting open against man coverage about 32% of the time per PFF’s Arjun Menon. That ranks 122nd out of 154 qualified pass catchers. Lattimore hasn’t been quite himself this year, allowing nearly 10 yards per target and a 103 passer rating into his coverage, but he’s limited other top options he’s shadowed like Davante Adams (5-56 on 7 targets), Terry McLaurin (4-46 on 11 targets), and Mike Evans (2-48-1 on 4 targets). Smith still has plenty of upside to be started as a WR3, but there is considerable risk that he puts up a clunker. Be aware of it if you’re considering him for lineups.
WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 11: vs. Mia.): Week 10 had some positive signs for Moore, and some negative ones. The positive is that he got in the end zone again and he reached double-digit fantasy points for the 3rd week in a row. He also showed a quick rapport with week 11 starter Joe Flacco, catching two of the three completions Flacco threw, including the TD. The negative is that he played only 56% of the offensive snaps and was ceding playing time to Keelan Cole, Braxton Berrios and Jeff Smith. The return of Corey Davis showed that Davis is still clearly the WR1 in this offense. If the rapport with Flacco carries over, Moore should have no problem overcoming the limited playing time and being a solid WR4 option this week, but that remains to be seen. It is a good matchup. The Dolphins allow the 3rd-most WR points per game. You just have to ask yourself if you trust Joe Flacco.
TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 11: @LAC): The Steelers are building their game plan for this week as though Mason Rudolph is going to be under center again. That’s not good news for Freiermuth or any other Steelers’ pass-catcher. Freiermuth saw a season-high 9 targets with Rudolph under center but posted his worst fantasy game since prior to JuJu Smith-Schuster’s season ending injury. He’s going to be heavily involved in the offense even with Rudolph at QB, but the volume from Rudolph just doesn’t go as far as volume from Big Ben. The Chargers allow the 4th-most TE points per game, so the matchup is a good one. I’d treat Freiermuth as a top-15 option with Rudolph at QB, and a top-10 option if Big Ben is able to play.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 11: vs. Bal.): Fields has made strides in recent performances and has had an extra week to prepare for the Ravens, but I don’t like his chances of posting a big fantasy day in this one. Fields was the QB12 from week 6 through week 9, the span of his last 4 games, but 45% of his fantasy output came from his rushing production. He rushed for at least 38 yards in each game. No starting QB facing the Ravens this season has run for more than 12 yards. The Ravens allow the 11th-most QB points per game, but I’m not counting on Fields to take advantage of this matchup. I view him as a low-end QB2 in week 11.
QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 11: vs. Mia.): Wilson was a full participant in practice last Friday before being ultimately being inactive on Sunday. He seemed to be trending toward a week 11 return, but the Jets announced Wednesday that Joe Flacco will get the start instead. It would’ve been a favorable matchup for the rookie against a defense that ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA, but his only hope to make an impact would be a mid-game substitution like Tua had against the Ravens last week. Hopefully Wilson can return in week 12.
RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 11: vs. NO): In the absence of Miles Sanders, it’s become obvious that Kenneth Gainwell is going to be limited to being just a receiving down back for the Eagles used mostly in obvious passing situations, and they just haven’t had many obvious passing situations in recent weeks. The Eagles have committed to running the football, and the result has been much better game scripts, which limit Gainwell’s opportunity. He’s touched the ball just 5 times in the last 2 weeks, and I don’t expect the return of Sanders to change the team’s game plan.
RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 11: vs. Was.): Hubbard handled 9 rushing attempts and got into the end zone in week 10, but he did so on just 16 snaps in a blowout win over the Cardinals. 8 of Chuba’s 9 carries came with the Panthers up by at least 3 scores. It’s not impossible that they get way up again this week, but that’s not usage you want to bet on. Chuba remains just a CMC handcuff.
RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 11: vs. Bal.): In David Montgomery’s return to action in week 9, Herbert played just 10 snaps and handled 4 rushing attempts. This is David Montgomery’s backfield.
RB Larry Rountree II, LAC (Wk. 11: vs. Pit.): Like Chuba, Rountree got into the end zone last weekend on limited opportunities. He hasn’t played 10+ snaps since week 4. There’s no need to consider him.
WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 11: @Sea.): Rondale has now gone 5 consecutive weeks with fewer than 30 scrimmage yards and fewer than 8 PPR points. He’s getting nothing but short targets, no matter who is at QB. With AJ Green’s return last week, Moore’s snap share dropped from 81% in week 9 to 33% in week 10. There is a silver lining for Moore in that the Seahawks allow the 5th-most yards after catch in the league, but he’s no more than a low-priced dart throw in DFS tournaments.
WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 11: @TB): The upside with Toney is tantalizing, but we can’t let ourselves be tricked into chasing fool’s gold. We saw the ceiling in weeks 4 & 5 as Toney totaled 16 catches and 267 yards, but outside of those two games he’s totaled 12 catches for 85 yards the rest of the season. The Giants have consistently proven that they don’t know how to effectively get Toney involved, and I wouldn’t chase the upside with Toney this week. Yes the Giants will have to throw a lot, and yes the Bucs allow the 12th-most WR points per game, but Toney is still going to end up with something like 4-25 on 5 targets.
WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 11: vs. Was): With Cam Newton under center, look for the Panthers’ offense to transition to using significantly more 2-tight end sets to sell the threat of the power run game with Cam. This is going to mean less playing time for Marshall, who functions as the team’s WR3.Thanks to a very positive game script last week, we already got a preview of what that might look like moving forward with Terrace playing just 24% of the offensive snaps. This is a plus matchup for a WR, with Washington allowing the 2nd-most points per game to the position, but you can’t count on Marshall given the amount of playing time he’s been getting lately. Keep him parked on the bench unless we see a drastic change in his usage in the next couple weeks as Cam gets settled in.
WRs Dyami Brown & Dax Milne, WAS (Wk. 11: @Car.): Brown returned from injury last week, but basically functioned as the team’s WR5, even with Curtis Samuel still sidelined. It looks as though DeAndre Carter has earned that WR2 role opposite Terry McLaurin, and Adam Humphries has manned the slot. Fellow rookie Dax Milne is even playing ahead of Brown at this point. Milne isn’t playing enough to warrant fantasy consideration – he’s tallied just 5 catches for 60 yards in the last 3 weeks, but he’s got more value than Brown at this point.
WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 11: vs. Ari.): Eskridge finally got back on the field last week but played a very limited role. Freddie Swain and Penny Hart were each on the field significantly more than Eskridge, but the team did make an effort to get the ball to Eskridge when he was on the field. He was targeted twice on just 5 offensive snaps last week. He’s worth continuing to monitor, but he should be on the waiver wire in most redraft formats.
TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 11: @Car.): Don’t fall into the trap here. Ricky Seals-Jones isn’t practicing as of Thursday, and Logan Thomas is no sure thing to return either. That leaves Bates as the starting TE if both are out. There isn’t much upside to chase here though. In his last two college seasons, Bates averaged just 2.4 catches and 28 receiving yards per game, and the Panthers have allowed the 13th-fewest TE points per game. You’d have to be very desperate to use Bates in fantasy lineups this week. The only place I’d look at him is in a Showdown DFS contest for this game.
Rookies on Bye in week 11: RB Javonte Williams, DEN, RB Jake Funk, LAR, WR Tutu Atwell, LAR
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 11: @Cle.): Amon-Ra hasn’t put up many fantasy performances to be excited about, but he’s averaged nearly 6 targets per game over the last 6 games and gets easily the best individual matchup of any Detroit wide receiver this week. The Lions are double-digit underdogs in Cleveland, so they should be throwing a bunch. Cleveland’s slot corner, Troy Hill, has allowed a whopping 134.4 passer rating on throws into his coverage, and that’s who ARSB will match up with. Detroit may be missing Jared Goff, but I don’t believe Tim Boyle or David Blough will be a notable downgrade at the position given how bad Goff has been. Keep an eye on team updates if considering Amon-Ra. Josh Reynolds may get more involved this week now that he should be up to speed. I don’t expect increased Reynolds snaps to come from St. Brown though. I’d view ARSB as a PPR WR4 consideration, and as a guy to target in DFS Showdown contests for this game.
WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 11: @Ten.): Collins shouldn’t be in consideration in most fantasy formats, but he could be in prime position to post his best game of the season. The Titans are a double-digit favorite, so that should keep the Texans throwing the ball, and Tennessee has allowed more WR catches and receiving yards than any other team in the league. Brandin Cooks is the obvious beneficiary of this matchup, but Collins has functioned as the clear WR2 since his return from IR. He’s no more than a bargain dart throw in DFS tournaments ($3,300 on DraftKings), but he’s got a higher ceiling this week than usual.
TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 11: vs. Was.): If you read what I wrote above about Terrace Marshall Jr., you know I think the Panthers utilize the tight end position more going forward. That means more playing time for Tremble. So far, his production has been lackluster with just 39 total receiving yards in the last 4 weeks, but he’s seen nearly double the targets that Ian Thomas has in that span, and Cam Newton likes to utilize the tight end position. Tremble played a season-high 68% of the offensive snaps last week. A spike in production is likely coming soon. Now is the time to stash Tremble in deeper leagues, especially in dynasty formats.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.