Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! The last 7 days around the NFL have been an absolute whirlwind. We’ve seen a potential Hall of Famer get traded (Von Miller), another future Hall of Famer be proven to be dishonest about his vaccination status (Aaron Rodgers), a disgruntled star wide receiver get told to stay away from his team after allegedly orchestrating a social media campaign against his QB (Odell Beckham Jr.), and another star WR step away from football to work on his mental health (Calvin Ridley). The worst news of the week, however, was the arrest of Henry Ruggs, and the tragic circumstances around it. Ruggs was driving faster than 150 MPH while at twice the legal blood alcohol limit and crashed into and killed a young Las Vegas woman. Ruggs’ recklessness likely means the end of his NFL career, but that is the least important part of sorting through the wreckage that his irresponsible decisions caused.

None of these news updates even touch on the action we saw on the field last week, and that action was wild enough on its own. No one saw the Mike White-led Jets or Cooper Rush-led Cowboys picking up upset wins this week, or the ultra-durable Derrick Henry suffering a season-ending foot injury. I also didn’t see disappearing acts coming from Kyle Pitts, Kenneth Gainwell, and DeVonta Smith. Michael Carter, Elijah Mitchell, and Justin Fields pick up the rookie slack. Which rookies are going to step up in week 9 and help you fill in for your byes and injured players? Let’s take a look and find out.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game Let’s dive into week 9…

Rookies to Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 9: vs. Pit.): You already know to start Harris, but his recent usage has been in the Derrick Henry range. Over the past 3 games, Harris has averaged 24 carries and 5 targets per game, this week he faces a defense that has allowed over 130 rushing yards to opposing backs in each of their last 3 games. The Bears rank 24^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Harris is a locked-in RB1 again this week, even without stellar rushing efficiency.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 9: vs. Cle.): Chase had one of the worst fantasy games we’ve seen from him in his rookie season, with a season-low 32 receiving yards. He still finished the week as the WR27. He’s a must-start, and this week he faces a defense allowing the 15^th-most WR points per game. Keep Chase locked into your lineups.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 9: @NO): Was week 8 a frustrating one for you if you started Kyle Pitts? You bet it was, but I’m comfortable going back to the well this week. The Falcons didn’t know until Sunday morning that they were going to be without star wide receiver Calvin Ridley and had no film on how the Panthers would deploy CB Stephon Gilmore, as he was making his first appearance for the team. With Ridley out, the Falcons offense was out of sorts, and Gilmore was able to shadow Pitts all game. Pitts’ production was terrible, finishing with just 2 catches for 13 yards on 6 targets, but his usage was a level rarely seen by a tight end. Pitts was in a route on 97% of Matt Ryan’s dropbacks, and those 6 targets still represented a 22% target share as Matt Ryan threw just 27 times. The Falcons will be able to prepare all week knowing they won’t have Ridley. They’re going to be much more creative in finding ways to ensure that Pitts isn’t followed around by Marshon Lattimore all day, and Pitts should be in line for a nice bounce back game. It’s true the Saints allow just the 5^th-fewest TE points per game, but they’ve faced just one tight end all year that’s currently better than the TE20 on the season. Don’t run from the matchup. Pitts should be in your lineup this week unless you have an elite top-5 TE option to start over him.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 9: @Car.): If this were last year, the Panthers would be exactly the kind of defense Mac Jones would be licking his chops to face. The 2020 version of the Panthers were content to sit back in zone coverage and let teams pick them apart underneath, but not give up the deep ball. They had the 9^th-lowest blitz rate, and the 12^th-lowest press coverage rate in the league. The 2021 Panthers, on the other hand, have the 4^th-highest rates in both areas. They play aggressive in coverage, and they get after you up front, and the addition of Stephon Gilmore has them back to playing defense at a high level after a few shakier defensive weeks. Jones has been efficient through his first half-season, but it hasn’t come with much fantasy upside, and this week could be a challenging one. The reason I list Mac as a borderline option is because I see him as a borderline QB2 this week. Four teams are sitting the week out on byes, and a few others are without their starting QBs as Aaron Rodgers, Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray, and Jameis Winston could all be out this week. I’d prefer Mac over bottom-of-the-barrel options like PJ Walker, Mike White, Jordan Love, and fellow rookies Trevor Lawrence & Justin Fields this week. He doesn’t have a big ceiling in this matchup, but he should have a reasonable floor.

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 9: @Ind.): Carter dazzled in week 8, hauling in 9 receptions and finishing as the overall RB1 for the week. He’s clearly established himself as the lead back in this committee over Ty Johnson, and Mike White at QB has been a huge boost to his receiving production. White has targeted running backs on over 40% of his passes while Zach Wilson was below 20%. This week’s matchup isn’t an ideal one for Carter. The Colts rank 1^st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 3^rd-fewest RB points per game, and the Jets’ offense is expected to struggle with an implied total of just 18 points. Indy doesn’t give up a ton of receiving production to backs, allowing just 4 receptions and 33 yards per game to the position. With White at QB, the checkdowns are going to keep coming, so I do expect the Jets’ backs to out-pace those receiving averages the Colts have allowed. Carter just doesn’t possess the same ceiling this week that he did against the Bengals. He’s a low-end RB2 option in PPR leagues, and a little lower than that in half-PPR. If I were going to target Jets’ pass catchers in showdown contests, Carter, Jamison Crowder, and Elijah Moore would be my choices.

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 9: vs. NE): The Panthers might get Christian McCaffrey back this week…or they might not get him back for two more weeks. It’s hard to say with any certainty at this point, but the Panthers did open his practice window to potentially return. If McCaffrey is ready to go this week, don’t play Hubbard. If he sits again, Hubbard should be in good position to post an RB2 week. Of the trio of rookie lead backs who don’t catch many passes (Hubbard/Elijah Mitchell/Khalil Herbert), Chuba has the most favorable matchup this week. The Patriots rank a middling 17^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 18^th-most RB points per game. They’re not an inviting matchup, but they aren’t as daunting as those faced by the other rookie backs. Keep an eye on the injury report and make sure CMC sits before locking in Chuba in your lineups.

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 9: vs. Ari.): Mitchell had a big game against the Bears last Sunday, rolling up over 130 yards and a touchdown, but the sledding will be a bit tougher this week. The Cardinals rank 9^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 7^th-fewest RB points per game. They’ve also probably seen enough film on Mitchell to know he’s kind of a one-trick pony. He doesn’t catch passes, and he hasn’t had much success running between the tackles. 13 of his 15 rushes of 10+ yards this year have come either off-tackle, or on the outside. The Bears allow the 2^nd-highest yards per rush average on those kinds of carries. The Cardinals allow the 18^th-highest average. Mitchell is still the lead back in an offense that wants to run the ball. He’s got a questionable tag with a rib injury, so keep an eye on his status, but if he plays, he should be a solid flex option with upside this week.

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 9: @Pit.): The Bears have opened the practice window for David Montgomery to return from IR, so this may be your last opportunity to get Herbert into your lineups before he’s relegated to backup duty again. He’s proven to be an outstanding runner in his first few opportunities this year, but he seemed to hit a wall in the second half against the 49ers last Sunday. Khalil tallied just 8 scrimmage yards in the second half on 10 carries and 1 reception. The Steelers are an even better run defense than the 49ers, ranking 6^th in run defense DVOA, and allowing the 6^th-fewest RB points per game. If Montgomery is out again this week, Herbert is still a reasonable RB3 option, but know that it could be tough sledding for him against the Steelers.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 9: @Dal.): This is your weekly ‘Javonte Williams is going to touch the ball about a dozen times and may or may not post a useful fantasy stat-line with them’ update. Dallas has been solid against the run, ranking 11^th in run defense DVOA, and allowing the 7^th-fewest RB points per game. Dallas has given up just 4 running back TDs all year, and you’ll probably need a score to feel good about starting Javonte. He’s an RB3 option if you’re desperate.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): Waddle had a down game against a tough Bills’ defense in week 8, but he should get back on track against the Texans on Sunday. After facing Taron Johnson last week, the Texans’ secondary will be a sight for sore eyes. Waddle has averaged just over 10 targets per game since Tua returned to the lineup, and the Texans are allowing the 13^th-most WR points per game. Waddle should pile up enough catches to post a strong PPR WR3 game.

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 9: vs. Min.): Since returning from IR, Bateman has played more than 60% of the offensive snaps and seen 6 targets in both games he’s been active for. This week he gets to face a Minnesota defense allowing the 6^th-most WR points per game. I expect the Ravens to continue to get their 1^st round pick involved in this good matchup. The Ravens still don’t throw enough to make Bateman a truly safe play along with Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews, but he should be a reasonable WR3/4 option this week in all formats.

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 9: vs. LV): Toney seems likely to play this week despite suffering yet another injury Monday night against the Chiefs. It also appears that Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay will return to action as well, so it remains to be seen just how big a target share Toney is going to get. I expect the Giants want him involved after his breakout games a few weeks ago, but his ceiling might not be as high this week against the Raiders. 58% of Toney’s yards on the season have come after the catch, and Vegas has allowed the 2^nd-fewest yards after catch in the league. Toney is still in play as a WR3/4 option, but I’d take a long look at your other available options before pulling the trigger.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 9: vs. LAC): Smith remains an infuriating player if you have him on your fantasy rosters. He dominates usage in this passing game, still sitting at a 23% target share and nearly 40% air yard share for the season, but he just isn’t converting those things into fantasy points. For the season, he’s scored fewer points than Van Jefferson, Hunter Renfrow, and Kendrick Bourne. He’s much closer to a must-sit than a must-start at this point, but the usage keeps alive the hope of a tantalizing ceiling. The Chargers probably aren’t the team that he’ll reach it against. They’ve allowed the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game, and rank 4^th in pass defense DVOA. Smith is in the ‘only if you’re desperate’ category this week.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 9: vs. Chi.): Freiermuth faces a tough matchup on paper this week against a Chicago defense that has allowed the 2^nd-fewest tight end points per game, but his target volume keeps him in the TE streamer discussion this week. The rookie has been targeted 7 times in each game since JuJu Smith-Schuster went down for the season, and that volume should continue going forward. With TJ Hockenson and Gronk on a bye, Noah Fant on the covid list, you may be looking for a replacement this week. There are probably streaming options with higher upside than Freiermuth this week, but the Steelers’ TE should be a safe floor play who should clear 40 yards.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 9: @Pit.): Fields finally posted the kind of game we’ve been waiting for from him last Sunday, but I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance this week against a talented Pittsburgh defense. His big day last week was a result of over 100 yards and a score running the ball, and so far, the Steelers have only allowed 1 quarterback to rush for more than 11 yards against them. Matt Nagy returns to the sideline this week, giving Fields another obstacle to overcome. I would view him as a very tail end QB2 option this week.

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 9: vs. Buf.): The Bills have only allowed 1 quarterback all season to post a top-12 finish against them, and I don’t like Lawrence’s chances to make it 2. In week 8, Lawrence saw his efficiency levels fall back to where they were in the first few weeks of the season despite facing a burnable Seattle defense. This week he takes on a Buffalo unit that ranks 1^st in pass defense DVOA, has allowed the fewest QB points per game, and has forced 12 QB turnovers in their last 6 games, with at least one in every contest. They’ve been a defensive buzzsaw and are not a great spot to hope for a Lawrence bounce back after his down game last week. Garbage time may give Lawrence more upside this week than Mac Jones, but his floor is lower. I’d keep the rookie parked on my bench.

QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 9: @Mia.): In case you missed the news, Tyrod Taylor will be back from IR and starting at QB for the Texans this week. Across his 6 starts, Mills faced an absolute gauntlet of defenses. The Colts were the only team he started against that doesn’t rank in the top-12 in the league at limiting QB points, and now he goes back to the bench as the Texans prepare to face a Miami team that allows the 3^rd-most points to the position. Sometimes the world just isn’t fair.

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 9: vs. LAC): Like everyone else, I too was shocked that the Eagles phased Gainwell out of their offense against the Lions last weekend. I expected a lot of Boston Scott and Gainwell in the backfield with Miles Sanders sidelined, but the Eagles opted to use Jordan Howard as the 2^nd RB instead of the rookie. The final stat sheet actually shows Gainwell led the backfield in touches, but almost all of his opportunities came in the 4^th quarter after the other two backs had each found the end zone twice. I don’t expect Gainwell to only have 1 touch through the first 3 quarters again this week, but I do expect the Eagles to have a similar gameplan against a Chargers’ defense allowing the most RB rushing yards per game. It clearly worked well last week, and I expect a lot of Boston Scott and Jordan Howard again this week. Gainwell may play a bit more, but I’d shy away from using him in any fantasy lineups this week.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 9: @Car.): The Patriots backfield after Damien Harris continues to be a conundrum to sort out each week. Even if Stevenson works as the team RB2 this week, which is far from a certainty, he’s going to see limited opportunity against a defense allowing the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game.

RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 9: @Phi.): Rountree may get a bit more run this week against a defense that has allowed the 3^rd-most RB points per game thanks to an injury to Justin Jackson, but it’s hard to know exactly how big that role will be behind Austin Ekeler. He’s gotten additional run in games the Chargers have won easily, so if you think they run away with this game, Rountree may have some desperation flex-appeal in non-PPR leagues. I wouldn’t count on him though.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 9: vs. Cle.): Evans should return from injury this week, but the Browns allow the 9^th-fewest RB receptions per game, and we’ve seen Evans be productive exactly 1 time in the 5 games where he saw snaps.

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 9: @Cin.): With Nick Chubb back on the field last week, Felton totaled just 1 rushing attempt and 1 target. He’s not worth a roster spot in season-long leagues.

RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 9: vs. Ari.): Sermon hasn’t played an offensive snap since week 5…when he played all of 2 offensive snaps. Nothing to see here.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 9: @SF): Moore could move into a more prominent role this week with AJ Green on the Covid list, but he’ll have to be utilized differently to cash in on the opportunity. The majority of Moore’s work this season has come on short passes behind the line of scrimmage or just a few yards downfield, and the 49ers have allowed the 3^rd-fewest yards after catch in the league this year. Moore could pile up a bunch of short catches to help in PPR formats, but I don’t see him posting a quality fantasy line for you this week.

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 9: vs. NE): Marshall has a good chance to return to action this week as he practiced in full on Wednesday, but he’ll likely be doing so with PJ Walker at quarterback, and Marshall averaged just 2.7 catches and 23 yards per game when things were good in this passing game the first 4 weeks of the season. I can’t see him putting up a productive game his first week back. If you get him into any lineups, you’re just crossing your fingers that he scores a TD.

WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 9: @Cin.): There is a small amount of upside this week for Schwartz with Odell Beckham Jr. essentially booted off the team. In the first two games of the season with OBJ sidelined with injury, Schwartz played right around 50% of the offensive snaps and saw a handful of deep targets. The concern here is that Schwartz still may find himself 4^th on the WR depth chart this week if Donovan Peoples-Jones is able to return from injury. In week 1, Rashard Higgins played just 4 offensive snaps, but he’s been a fixture in 3-WR sets since, and Schwartz isn’t going to play much over Jarvis Landry or Peoples-Jones. If DPJ sits, Schwartz has some dart throw upside in the deepest of leagues and DFS tournaments, but otherwise he should be avoided.

WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 9: @Phi.): Palmer scored his first career TD last week, but he also played the fewest snaps he’s seen since week 4. Don’t be fooled by the touchdown. There’s no change here for Palmer. He remains waiver fodder.

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 9: vs. NE): Tremble is playing enough to get mentioned every week but isn’t seeing enough usage to warrant lineup consideration. He’s seen 12 targets come his way over the last 4 games but hasn’t topped 20 receiving yards in any game and found the end zone just once. There isn’t any reason to expect that to change against a New England defense that’s allowing the 3^rd-fewest TE points per game.

Rookies on Bye in week 9: RB Jaret Patterson, WAS, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET, WR Dyami Brown, WAS, WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 9: @Ind.): Moore’s playing time in week 8 was less than encouraging (on the field for just 36% of the offensive snaps in a game Corey Davis missed), but what he did with his playing time is worth some attention. The rookie had his best game of the season, catching all 6 of his targets for 67 yards, and throwing in a 4-yard rush for good measure. I’d be surprised if his playing time doesn’t tick up a bit this week, and the Colts have struggled to defend undersized speed receivers who play on the outside. Brandin Cooks posted 9-89 against them. Tyler Lockett put up 4-100-2. Marquise Brown posted 9-125-2. Moore will likely need Mike White to take a few deep shots to cash in this week the way those guys have against the Colts, but the opportunity is there for Moore to improve on what he did a week ago.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 9: @Mia.): The return of Tyrod Taylor to the lineup should open up the deeper passing game this week, and the Dolphins allow the 2^nd-most WR points per game and have allowed the 2^nd-most air yards on completed passes this year. Taylor’s return and the matchup are certainly more beneficial for WR1 Brandin Cooks than for Nico, but there is plenty of DFS upside for Collins in a game that has some shootout potential. Collins costs just $3,600 on DraftKings.

TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 9: @Mia.): I list Jordan here more as a guy to stash in deeper leagues than to start this week. He was active for the first time all season in week 8 thanks to Pharaoh Brown being out with injury, and he made the most of the opportunity with a 3-41-1 line on 4 targets. The Texans’ season is going nowhere fast, and at some point, it will behoove them to see what they have in the youngster after he caught for 72 yards and nearly a touchdown per game at Miami last year. Jordan does have sneaky DFS appeal this week if Brown misses another game. The Dolphins rank 26^th in pass defense DVOA, and Jordan costs the minimum on DraftKings.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.