Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

38.1 Fantasy Points

Good things do indeed come in small packages, as proven last night by Kyler Murray. His 38.1-point performance last night vaulted him to the top of the overall points list for all fantasy players this year. His per-game average is still a few points behind Russell Wilson, who has already had his bye week, but Kyler defeated Russell last night, so let’s focus on him today. Kyler’s consistency is remarkable – his lowest scoring week this season is a healthy 23.12 points, which is a floor that not even Wilson can match. The Cardinals now have a 5-2 record in the toughest division in football. He has at least 2 TDs in every game, and in 5 games he has 3 TDs. He’s putting up some great rushing numbers as well, with 437 total rushing yards he has the 11^th most rushing yards in the entire league. Murray has made great progress since last season, and his future is very bright. As he gets better, his interception rate will drop, his completion percentage will go up, and he will be a frequent participant in the playoffs, both in fantasy football and real football.

51.4 Points in 2 Games

Yesterday was the Jeff Wilson show again for the San Francisco 49ers. Wilson found the end zone 3 times and is the RB1 on the week with 31 fantasy points. In 2 games, this season, Weeks 3 and 7, he has 51.4 points. In the other 3 games he appeared in this season, he has a whopping 5.4 points total. It’s enough to give you whiplash. This just kind of shows that the best RB on the 49ers in the last few years seems to be whoever the backup is. Another player who’s going to give your fantasy team whiplash, though not quite as badly, is Tyler Lockett. Yesterday he put up the biggest single-game total that we’ve seen in fantasy football this year. 15 receptions, 200 receiving yards, and 3 TDs for a grand total of 45.5 points is truly an amazing performance. Weeks 3 and 7 were also Lockett’s good weeks, where he put up a total of 78 points. His two games between those weeks combined for just 11.3 points. Lockett, unlike Wilson, is at least an every-week starter that has to stay in your lineup for his absolutely absurd ceiling.

1 NFL Victory

Rookie QB Justin Herbert has been quite remarkable since he was called in to start Week 2 with just a few minutes' heads up. Sunday, he finally notched his first win and Herbert led all QBs with 38.48 fantasy points. This year, Herbert has 3 games over 300 passing yards and has at least 3 passing TDs each of the last 3 weeks. He’s now averaging just a hair under 30 points in each of his last 3 games. His schedule going forward isn’t too bad through week 16, with only 2 opponents not in the bottom half giving up fantasy points to opposing QBs. It also seems like regardless of Tyrod Taylor’s status, Herbert will remain the starter going forward. As for Herbert’s opponent yesterday, it seems that Minshew Mania has dwindled down to a golf clap at best after his paltry 14 for 27 performance netting just 173 yards passing. The Jaguars 1-6 record is going to have them thinking long and hard about the future of the team through their upcoming bye week. The only bright spot on the team has been rookie UDFA James Robinson, who is the RB6 on the season.

5 Go Ahead 4^th Quarter TDs

Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow combined for 5 go-ahead touchdowns in the 4^th quarter on Sunday, an NFL record. Both of the young QBs are playing very well this year for their respective teams. The two teams combined for 34 total points in the 4^th quarter, with a missed XP at the very end looming very large for the sports bettors out there. With his first 30+ point performance of his career, Joe Burrow moves up to the QB10 spot on the season. He broke the 400-yard mark for the first time, and also helped his own cause by scrambling for a TD to start the scoring on Sunday. Burrow also threw 3 TDs to 3 different players. On the other side, Baker Mayfield also cracked 30 fantasy points, but he sits as the QB21 on the year and is just an interesting streaming option for now. The Browns will continue to focus on running the ball first – they’re still 5^th in the league in rushing attempts. The impressive 5-2 Browns will host the Raiders next week, but will not have the services of resurgent WR Odell Beckham Jr, who is out for the season with an ACL tear.

24 Fantasy Points on Defense

For the second time this season, the Kansas City Chiefs have the top D/ST score in the league. A gaudy stat line of 1 kick return TD, 2 interceptions, 3 sacks, 2 fumbles recovered and 1 defensive TD contributed to their 24-point total on Sunday. This doubled up the 12 points that Patrick Mahomes put up this week. Not that Mahomes had a bad game, he just didn’t need to do much with his defense doing all the work. We also saw rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire find the end zone for the first time since Week 1. He’s clearly seeing Le’Veon Bell filling his entire rearview mirror. Side note – isn’t it awesome to see football in the snow? I freaking love it and the chaos that can sometimes ensue in it during a football game. Finally, you can add Denver to the list of teams (that include the Jets, Giants, and …Team) to fade when streaming a D/ST.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! While I’m sure most of us are eager for the distraction from the marathon election week, football this week is feeling like a less fun escape than usual as injuries and Covid-19 ravage NFL rosters and fantasy rosters alike. Just among the rookies this week, AJ Dillon and Brandon Aiyuk missed Thursday night due to the coronavirus, and in all more than a third of the league has at least one player on the Reserve/COVID list. Week 8 was a rough one for the rookie class. The top-2 quarterbacks had good weeks, DeeJay Dallas, Zack Moss and JK Dobbins all posted breakout games, and Cam Akers finally got into the mix for the Rams with Darrell Henderson going down with injury, but there were few other bright spots. Brandon Aiyuk topped 90 yards, but top rookies Justin Jefferson, Jonathan Taylor, CEH, and D’Andre Swift all had decidedly disappointing weeks. Is week 9 going to be just as much of a minefield for the rookies? Let’s dive in and take a look at what to expect…

(Notes: All rookies under same header at same position are listed in the order I would play them this week. All fantasy points references are in half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted)

Rookies to Start:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 9: vs. LV): Herbert is quickly ascending to the point where he is an automatic start in 2-QB formats and a solid option in most 1-QB leagues each week as well. Herbert has thrown for over 260 yards and 3+ touchdowns in 4 straight games, and Vegas has struggled to contain QBs not named Baker Mayfield in the last month. In the 3 games prior to shutting down Mayfield a week ago, the Raiders had given up at least 288 passing yards and 3 total scores to each QB they faced (Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Tom Brady). Of course, the guys who burned them are very good fantasy quarterbacks, but from what we’ve seen, so is Herbert. The Raiders have also given up 20+ rushing yards to 4 different QBs they’ve faced, and Herbert is capable of hurting them with his legs as well. Vegas ranks 27^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. Put all of this together and Herbert is easily a top-10 QB this week, and maybe top-5.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 9: vs. Car.): Edwards-Helaire has seen a drastic drop in his viability as a fantasy starter in recent weeks, but this is a week where he should be fired up with confidence. CEH has played nearly twice as many snaps as Le’Veon Bell in each of the 2 games since the veteran was added. In both games, the duo gave way to a 3^rd-stringer in the 4^th quarter of a blowout. Kansas City remains a heavy favorite this week, so there is a chance that happens again, but Carolina has just one loss by multiple scores on the season. They’ve also ranked 26^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 4^th-most RB points per game. Carolina has also allowed 12 rushing scores in 8 games and a league-worst 7.3 receptions per game to opposing backs. Everything stacks up to CEH doing enough damage against this defense before it gets out of hand that he should return an easy RB2 performance even if it does turn into another rout.

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): Robinson has been a fantasy gem for teams who managed to get him on the wire at the start of the season, and the absence of Gardner Minshew this week may prove to be a positive thing for Robinson. The Jaguars should lean a bit heavier on the run game early on in this one against a team that ranks 27^th in run defense DVOA. The Texans have allowed the 3^rd-most running back points per game on the season, and while Robinson didn’t have a great performance against them the first time around (70 scrimmage yards, 5 catches, and a fumble lost), I like his chances to be better this time. Houston gives up a league-high 151 rushing yards per game to RBs, and Robinson is usually a lock for 4+ targets as well. That shouldn’t change with Luton under center. Luton had a reputation in college for checking down if his initial read wasn’t open rather than going through his progression. That should benefit Robinson in PPR leagues. He should be a safe RB2 this week.

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 9: vs. NYG): Like James Robinson, Gibson gets to face off with a team he’s already played and not produced against this weekend, and like Robinson I expect better results this time around for Gibson. The Giants have been respectable against opposing backs, ranking 9^th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 15^th-most RB points per game. Zeke Elliott is the only back to top 60 rushing yards against them in the last 6 weeks, but Gibson has posted at least 4 catches or 100 rushing yards in each of his last 4 games. His receiving usage has spiked since the QB change from Dwayne Haskins, and that should give him enough floor that any improvement to his rushing effort from the last meeting likely results in an RB2 week. This contest is in Washington, and 3 of the 4 highest rushing yardage totals the Giants have allowed came on the road. I think Gibson finishes with 70+ scrimmage yards, a handful of catches, and a possible score.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 9: vs. Det.): I was set to list Jefferson as a borderline option this week, but the news that Matt Stafford has been activated from the Covid-19 list changed that. With David Blough or Chase Daniel at QB, this looked like a game where the Vikings would let Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison run roughshod over the Lions in an easy win. It should be much more competitive with Stafford under center. The Lions have allowed the 13^th-most WR points per game, and Jefferson has shown a ceiling that you can’t leave on the bench unless you have a really good reason to do so. Last week was a letdown game for him, but it’s hard to blame the Vikings for leaning on Dalvin Cook with the success he was having. I expect a much better performance from Jefferson this week.

Borderline Rookies:

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 9: @Ind.): Dobbins was fantastic in week 8 as the absence of Mark Ingram allowed him to be fully unleashed for the first time this year. Dobbins played two-thirds of the offensive snaps and turned 15 carries into 113 yards against what has been one of the toughest run defenses in the league (Pittsburgh ranks 2^nd in run defense DVOA). He’ll have to duplicate the feat this week to put up another big game. Mark Ingram will be sidelined again, so the opportunity will be there, but the Colts rank 5^th in run defense DVOA and allow the 4^th-fewest RB points per game, so it’s another tough matchup. Dobbins doesn’t get consistent passing game usage, so he’ll have to get his numbers on the ground, and the high-water mark the Colts have allowed for rushing yards was 72 to Kareem Hunt, and he took 20 carries to get there. Dobbins likely sees enough work to not kill you as a flex option just on the merits of his yards, but he has the chance at a very strong week if he manages to get into the end zone. The Colts have only allowed 3 RB rushing scores in their first 7 games though.

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 9: @Min.): Swift played his highest snap share of the season in week 8 (62%), but had one of his worst games of the season with just 1 rushing yard and 22 receiving yards on 3 catches. His playing time was likely a result of the Lions playing from a deep hole and the fact that Swift is the only real pass-catching back on the roster. I’d expect him back under 50% this week, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. The matchup is much better this week. Minnesota ranks 19^th in run defense DVOA and allows nearly 6 receptions per game to opposing backs. I’d expect Swift to have a bit of a bounce-back game. He may even see a couple of extra targets with Kenny Golladay out of the lineup, but ultimately he’ll be a bit of a volatile RB3. As usual, he’ll be more helpful in PPR formats.

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 9: vs. Bal.): Taylor hasn’t quite lived up to the hype that he had coming into the season, but week 8 was a huge letdown from the rookie in a smash spot. The Colts won in a blowout and ran the ball 39 times, but Taylor carried just 11 times for 22 yards and spent much of the day on the sideline watching Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines combine for 175 scrimmage yards and 3 TDs. He also got to see a 2-yard rushing score by tight end Trey Burton. News came out after the game that Taylor was limited due to an injury, and he is practicing in full late this week, but it’s still troubling to say the least. Taylor hasn’t been that effective as a runner in recent weeks, so it’s a real threat that Wilkins could steal a bigger share of the workload after impressing last Sunday. The matchup with the Ravens this week is not a good one, with Baltimore ranking 1^st in run defense DVOA and allowing the 2^nd-fewest fantasy points per game to backs. Taylor is still going to get some work, but starting him this week is a bet that his talent will overcome both a potentially reduced role and a brutal matchup. I wouldn’t go near him in DFS lineups, but there is enough here that you could consider him for a flex spot depending on what your roster looks like.

RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 9: @Buf.): Dallas had a breakthrough game last week finding the end zone twice against the 49ers as Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde missed the game with an injury and Travis Homer played a limited role due to an injury of his own. Carson and Hyde will be out again this week, but Homer should be healthier and the team has added Alex Collins from the practice squad. That muddies up the water a little bit this week for Dallas, but I expect him to still lead the committee after what he did a week ago. The Bills have a reputation as a tough defense but haven’t exactly lived up to it this year. They rank 24^th in run defense DVOA and Seattle has an implied total of 29 points. Dallas doesn’t have much of a track record, so there is a real risk that Homer and Collins take a sizable chunk out of his workload, but if his role is similar to last week he should be a decent RB3/flex play.

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 9: vs. Sea.): On the other side of the Bills-Seahawks game, Zack Moss appears to have pulled even with Devin Singletary in the Bills’ backfield depth chart. They’ve played about the same amount of snaps in each of the last two weeks, and Moss got into the end zone twice last Sunday. Both backs ran for over 80 yards in the game, but it was the first time in a few weeks that the Bills have played from ahead and been able to run the ball a lot. I don’t expect that to be the case in what could be a shootout with the Seahawks. Seattle leads the league in points scored per game, and the Bills will probably be throwing to keep pace. Moss will probably see 12 or fewer carries against a defense that ranks 6^th in run defense DVOA and gets back run-stuffing safety Jamal Adams this week. He’ll need to get in the end zone to be helpful. He’s at least worth consideration in deeper leagues, but I’d probably look for a higher-upside option.

RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 9: vs. LV): It’s been a roller-coaster fantasy season for Kelley so far. He impressed in the first few weeks of the season as the 1-B running back to Austin Ekeler’s 1-A, but fumbles seemed to send him to the bench when Justin Jackson got healthy. Then Ekeler got hurt, and Kelley worked his way back into the rotation, but his inefficient play seemed to have him on the outs again last week. Troymaine Pope seemed to leapfrog Kelley on the depth chart in the second half last week…but now Pope is likely out this week with a concussion. That should give Kelley one more chance to state his case to keep getting touches. He gets that chance in a good matchup. The Raiders rank 31^st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 5^th-most RB points per game. For Kelley, the big question is how evenly the workload will be split with Jackson. If you think it’s going to be close to 50/50, then Kelley is in play as a flex option in 12-team and deeper leagues. I think he’ll see a little less than that, so I would probably lean against playing him unless you’re desperate. Kelley has just one game in his last 5 with 10+ PPR points.

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 9: @Atl.): Jeudy’s usage has been somewhat inconsistent in recent weeks, but his 10 targets last week were a season-high. The Broncos were playing from behind all day and Tim Patrick was sidelined with injury though. They could play from behind again this week, but Patrick is expected to return. I still think this could be a favorable week for Jeudy. In addition to allowing the 5^th-most WR points per game, the Falcons also have allowed more yards after catch than any team in the league, and Jeudy is the Denver WR in the best position to take advantage. He’s averaging nearly 5 yards after catch per reception. Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler each average fewer than 3. The Falcons have also struggled with slot receivers, giving up solid games to Tyler Lockett (8-92), CeeDee Lamb (6-106), Anthony Miller (2-41-1), Danny Amendola (3-62), and Curtis Samuel (4-31-1). If Jeudy sees more than 5 targets in this game, I like his chances of turning in 60+ yards and finishing as a WR3 or close to it.

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 9: @Ten.): Several weeks this season I’ve listed Mooney as a sleeper, and there have been a couple of weeks where he just missed having a solid game, but in week 8 he came through with his best game of the year. He posted 5-69-1 on 6 targets against the Saints, and this week gets a much more favorable matchup with the Titans. Tennessee has allowed the 3^rd-most WR points per game and has given up 50+ receiving yards to 10 different receivers in their last 4 games. Mooney has averaged 6.4 targets per game over the last 5 games, and I’d view 50 yards as his floor in this one if his targets are in that ballpark. I expect they will be. Mooney is in play as a WR3 option this week.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 9: @Dal.): The pattern has become pretty clear with the Steelers that if Diontae Johnson plays, the passing game runs through him, and when he doesn’t it runs through Claypool. Johnson has at least 10 targets in each of the last 3 games he’s played in full and averaged over 20 PPR points per game in those contests. In the last 3 that Diontae has missed or left with injury Claypool has averaged 8 targets and 27.3 PPR points per game. Yes, there was a 4 TD game in there, but Claypool found the end zone in all 3 games. It looks like Diontae is going to play this week, so Claypool returns to being a boom-or-bust WR4 type this week unless something happens to Johnson mid-game. Dallas is a burnable defense, allowing the 6^th-most WR points per game. Claypool has shown the ability to make splash plays, and Dallas has allowed 6 completions of 40+ yards on the year. He’s too expensive for DFS cash games given his volatility this week ($5,700 on DraftKings), but he’s a high-ceiling flex dart throw in deeper leagues.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 9: vs. Pit.): Lamb has played 3 games without Dak Prescott now, and in those games, he’s turned 21 targets into just 91 yards and is on track to have the 3^rd different starting QB he’s had in the last 3 weeks. The Steelers have been a stingy pass defense, ranking 6^th in pass defense DVOA, but they have allowed the 8^th-most WR points per game. They’ve had their issues with slot WRs, giving up 4-62 to Jerry Jeudy, 4-95-1 to Randall Cobb, 4-26-1 to Greg Ward, and 5-106 to Willie Snead, but you need to temper expectations here with Garrett Gilbert throwing him the ball. The area where the Steelers have been especially vulnerable has been on downfield throws, allowing 25 completions of 20+ yards on the season, but Michael Gallup is the best deep threat WR on the roster. Lamb is a risky WR4 or flex option this week.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 9: @Ari.): Tua’s debut didn’t go as swimmingly as it could have from a fantasy standpoint, but the Dolphins rolled to victory against a decent Rams team. Tua benefitted from a defensive TD and a punt return TD, so he wasn’t asked to do much as a passer. He did make a few impressive throws, but the overall numbers weren’t great as he finished with 92 yards and a score on 22 attempts. This week he faces off with a Cardinals team that on paper is a little above average against QBs, allowing the 18th-most points per game to the position and ranking 11^th in pass defense DVOA. They have benefitted, however, from getting to face Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, and Dwayne Haskins this year. They’ve given up at least 18 QB points in every game that they didn’t face one of that trio. The Dolphins expect to be without both Myles Gaskin and Matt Breida in this game, so moving the ball on the ground could be a struggle. Tua is likely to throw the ball more this week than last week, but given what we saw against the Rams I would take anything above 200 yards and a score as a bonus. I’d view him as a low-end QB2 this week, but there is some upside for more.

QB Jake Luton, JAX (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): Luton will get the start in place of Gardner Minshew in this one, and although this is a favorable matchup it likely won’t be favorable to your fantasy lineup to have Luton in it. You’re probably unfamiliar with the Oregon State product. He’s got prototype NFL QB size at 6’7”, 230 lbs., but he doesn’t have a cannon arm and didn’t regularly show the ability to go through multiple reads in a play in college. The Texans allow the 8^th-most QB points per game and allowed the last two QBs they faced before the bye to each throw for 4 scores. They’ve had an extra week to get ready for Jacksonville, and I’d expect there to be some wrinkles added to the defensive scheme this week to keep the rookie uncomfortable. We really don’t know what to expect from Luton, but I would expect the Jaguars to lean on James Robinson whenever possible despite reports that they would ‘open up the offense’ with the rookie under center. Joe Flacco might be the only QB that I would start Luton over this week.

RB LaMical Perine, NYJ (Wk. 9: vs. NE): Perine is getting enough playing time that he should be a viable fantasy option, but that just hasn’t been the case. Over the last 3 games, Perine has averaged 15 more snaps per game than Gore, but Gore somehow has out-touched Perine 36-to-32. Perine averaged just over 40 scrimmage yards per game in those contests. Sam Darnold will be out this week, so the Jets will turn back to Joe Flacco. The Jets’ offense totaled 10 points in Flacco’s two starts this year. There is very little upside with this offense this week. New England isn’t a stout run defense, ranking 30^th in run defense DVOA, but with Perine splitting the backfield work in such an inept offense it’s hard to justify playing him in fantasy this week.

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): Shenault is a player that has been more exciting in theory than in practice in fantasy. He’s shown the ability to be dangerous with the ball in his hands, but the Jaguars haven’t been getting it into his hands often enough. He’s a lock for 3+ catches each week, but he’s reached 50 yards just twice this season and found the end zone just once. This appears to be a plus matchup on paper with the Texans allowing the 7^th-most WR points per game, but when you factor in the uncertainty that a Jake Luton start brings with it, I’d feel better rolling with someone other than Shenault this week.

WR Michael Pittman Jr., IND (Wk. 9: vs. Bal.): Pittman got back on the field last Sunday, but it’s pretty clear he’s got some work to do to get back into a useful role for fantasy. He did play a healthy 58% of the snaps in week 8, and TY Hilton may be out this week with a groin injury, but after seeing just 1 target last week it’ll be tough to trust the rookie. There were some signs for optimism when 7 Ravens’ defensive players were added to the Reserve/COVID list this week, but only Marlon Humphrey hasn’t been removed from the list ahead of the game. I would hesitate to trot Pittman out in anything but DFS lineups. If for some reason Marcus Johnson is out on Sunday (he was listed as ‘Did not practice’ by the team on Thursday but returned to practice Friday), I would move Pittman to the sleeper section.

WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 9: @LAC): Ruggs is capable of taking any catch to the house, but he needs to start seeing more catches before you can really rely on him to be useful in fantasy. He’s played in 5 games this season and is yet to top 5 targets in a game. Ruggs did have one breakout performance against the Chiefs where he had two long catches and a touchdown, but he’s averaged just 31 scrimmage yards in the other 4 games. The Chargers have allowed 6 catches of 40+ yards on the season, but Ruggs’ individual matchup with Casey Heyward isn’t a favorable one. I don’t like this as a week where he booms again. I would also avoid considering his rookie teammate Bryan Edwards in his first game back from a long layoff.

WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 9: @Atl.): Hamler may have a little bit of upside this week against a defense that allows the 5^th-most WR points per game, but this matchup favors Jerry Jeudy and the tight ends more than it favors Hamler. Hamler has seen just 6 targets and one rushing attempt in the last 2 weeks in games that the Broncos played mostly from behind. That doesn’t bode well for his chances this week. Everyone in the Denver offense has a little added upside in this matchup, but I wouldn’t bet on Hamler being the guy who capitalizes.

WR Marquez Callaway, NO (Wk. 9: @TB): Callaway should return to the field this week, but so should Emmanuel Sanders and possibly Michael Thomas. The Bucs rank 1^st in the league in pass defense DVOA, and Callaway is going to have an uphill fight to a useful day even if Thomas sits again. If Thomas is out, Callaway could be considered as a bargain basement DFS option or in deep leagues, but if Thomas returns Callaway shouldn’t be under consideration.

WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 9: vs. NE): For the 2^nd week in a row last Sunday, the Jets basically took the 2^nd half off. They’ve gained a TOTAL of 67 yards in the 2^nd halves of the last 2 games. If we just combine the first halves, Denzel Mims has totaled 6 catches for 84 yards on 10 targets. That would be a useful fantasy line if he had both of those halves in one game. Early in the week it looked like Mims could be the de-facto WR1 for the Jets in this game, but it looks like both Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman will be able to play. He’ll also have Joe Flacco at quarterback. It’ll be impossible to rely on a big game from the rookie this week.

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 9: vs. Sea.): Davis gets a great matchup this week against the Seahawks, who allow the most WR points per game, but he’s pretty unlikely to take advantage of it. In the last 3 Buffalo games, he’s played at least 60% of the offensive snaps each week but totaled just 2 catches for 18 yards on 6 targets. You’d have to be pretty desperate to consider him in any formats this week even with the great matchup.

WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 9: @Ind.): Duvernay has been slowly getting more involved in the Baltimore offense, but it’s only translating into a few targets per week right now. He did haul in a 31-yard catch to give the Ravens life late in their game against Pittsburgh last week, but it was his only grab of the day. The Colts rank 4^th in pass-defense DVOA, and I would expect Marquise Brown to get the squeaky wheel treatment this week after complaining about his role in the offense during the week. Brown should see most of the high-value WR targets in this one. With Baltimore promoting Dez Bryant to the active roster this week, there is less chance that Duvernay is heavily involved.

WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 9: vs. NO): With Antonio Brown being activated this week, Johnson should fade into fantasy irrelevance for now. He was already 4^th among the team’s WRs last week in snap share, playing behind Mike Evans, Scotty Miller, and Jaydon Mickens. Brown will push him down even further. Keep him sidelined.

TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 9: @Ten.): Kmet played his highest snap share of the season in week 8 but managed to turn 1 target into 2 yards and avoided losing a fumble due to a fortunate ruling by a referee that his forward progress was stopped. The Titans are a middling defense against TEs, allowing the 16^th-most TE points per game. There are higher upside dart throws this week at the position. Kmet may not even play (he didn’t practice on Thursday).

Rookies on Byes: QB Joe Burrow, CIN, RB Cam Akers, LAR, WR Tee Higgins, CIN, WR Jalen Reagor, PHI, WR John Hightower, PHI, WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE, WR Van Jefferson, LAR, TE Harrison Bryant, CLE

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 9: @Min.): Cephus’s outlook got a big boost Saturday when it was announced that Matt Stafford had been activated from the Lions’ Covid-19 list. The Lions will be without Kenny Golladay on Sunday, and when Golladay missed the first two games of the year Cephus played 76% and 66% of the offensive snaps in those games and saw 13 targets come his way. In recent weeks, Marvin Hall has emerged as the WR4 on game days while Cephus has been a healthy scratch, but I would expect Cephus to play a significant role this week. He and Hall will likely split Golladay’s role this week. Hall has the higher ceiling due to his big play ability (He has 6 catches of 40+ yards and 13 catches of 20+ out of 26 career receptions), but I would expect Cephus to have the higher target total and be more of a threat in the red zone. Minnesota has allowed the 2^nd-most WR points per game, and Cephus costs the minimum on DraftKings this week. There is a solid opportunity for a nice day from Quintez.

TE Albert Okwuegbunam, DEN (Wk. 9: @Atl.): Okwuegbunam saw his snap share and target share drop a bit last week with Noah Fant another week healthier, but he still managed to find the end zone. Denver spent much of the game well behind on the scoreboard before rallying to win, and as a result, spent more time with 3+ WRs on the field than they do on average. The Falcons allow the most TE points per game and have coughed up 8 TDs to the position in 8 games. We’ve already seen that Lock likes to look in Albert O’s direction when he’s on the field, and against this defense, he’ll have opportunities to do so. If you’re desperate at TE in deeper leagues or want a cheap DFS play at the position ($2,800 on DraftKings), Okwuegbunam is a worthwhile option with upside.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report this week and the Covid-19 updates. Things have been getting hairy there lately, so make sure you don’t start a sidelined player. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

(Editor's note: This was completed before the start of Thursday Night Football, but posted shortly after kickoff.)

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! There are now just 3 weeks remaining before the fantasy playoffs. You should have a good picture of where you stand in the playoff chase. Week 11 is the last week of the season with more than 2 teams on a bye (Tampa and Carolina in week 13 are the only byes left after this week). This may be the last week that you’re scrounging for a fill-in in your lineups, and with how productive the rookie crop has been this year there’s likely to be someone listed below that can help you. So far this season, the rookie class accounts for 2 of the top-14 QBs, 5 of the top-20 RBs, and 6 of the top-30 WRs. Which of those players are going to be useful in week 11? Let’s dive in and find out…

(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under same header at same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)

Rookies to Start:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 11: vs. NYJ): Herbert hit a bit of a speed bump last week against the Dolphins, but I’d expect him to get back on track against the Jets this week. Against the lowly Jets, a blowout is always a possibility (the Chargers are an 8.5-point favorite this week), but the Jets have given up big fantasy days in blowout losses to Kyler Murray, Josh Allen & Patrick Mahomes this year. The Chargers also don’t play in a lot of blowout games. They’ve played just 1 game that was decided by more than 8 points this season, so this might not get too out of hand. The Jets rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat, and even including last week’s clunker Herbert has at least 2 touchdowns in 6 straight games and 260+ passing yards in 7 of his 8 starts. He’s back to being a safe low-end QB1 this week. 

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 11: @Car.): Swift has clearly established himself as the Lions’ lead back in recent weeks. He’s led the backfield in snaps for 5 straight weeks since the team’s bye and was on the field for a whopping 73% of the snaps in week 10 despite the Lions playing from ahead for most of the game. Detroit usually deploys Adrian Peterson a lot more in that scenario, but things seem to have changed. Swift has been making the most of his opportunity, finishing as a top-16 RB in 4 of the last 5 weeks, and a top-5 back in two of them. This week he gets to face off with Carolina, who allows the 4^th-most running back points per game and could be without starting QB Teddy Bridgewater this week. If Teddy sits, the Lions are more likely to play from ahead and could give Swift more rushing work. In any case, Swift should be a strong RB2 this week with top-5 upside once again. There is some concern about Swift’s availability for this week as it was announced Thursday that he went into the concussion protocol, so watch the injury updates closely. If he’s unable to play, Kerryon Johnson could be a sneaky upside play this week. He’s more likely to pick up Swift’s receiving work than Adrian Peterson.

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 11: vs. Cin.): JD McKissic continues to play an outsized portion of the snaps and see an absurd number of targets each week (15(!) in week 10), but Gibson continues to make do with his limited early-down role. He did actually see his second and third 3^rd-down touches of the year last Sunday in the loss to Detroit. The key for Gibson is that the game has to stay competitive. When Washington falls behind and gets into a pass-happy mode, McKissic plays the bulk of the snaps. The Football Team isn’t very good, so that’s happened often. This week, Washington is actually favored by a point & a half. That could bode well for Gibson if the game plays out that way. The Bengals rank just 21^st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 7^th-most rushing yards in the league. Expect Gibson to play a bit more in this game than he has in recent weeks, and with a lot of top backs banged up around the league he should be a safe RB2 in a reasonable matchup.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 11: @LV): Keep an eye on the injury report for CEH. He was held out of practice on Thursday unexpectedly, but if that proves to not be a significant issue, I actually like Edwards-Helaire as an RB2 this week. He’s been playing about twice as many snaps as Le’Veon Bell since the veteran was acquired, and the Raiders' offense is good enough to keep this game competitive into the second half. Las Vegas has a piss-poor run defense, ranking 26^th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 5^th-most running back points per game. This looks like a perfect spot for the rookie to get back on track after 3 straight floor games. He totaled 80 scrimmage yards on 13 touches in the first meeting with the Raiders in a game where the Chiefs just didn’t look like themselves. I expect they’ll look much better this time around, and that Edwards-Helaire will be part of the reason why. It’ll take a bit of a leap of faith to trust him even if he’s healthy, but I expect a strong outing from CEH on Sunday.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 11: @Jax.): I talked last week in this space about Claypool turning the corner and starting to see a significant target share even in weeks when Diontae Johnson stayed on the field, and that continued in week 10. Claypool finished with 4-56-2 on 10 targets against the Bengals in a game that the Steelers led most of the way. This week’s game script should be similar with Pittsburgh a 10-point favorite. Claypool has 32 targets over the last 3 weeks, so anything short of 8 in this one would be a disappointment even if the Steelers play from ahead. With the big-play ability Claypool has shown, 8+ targets against a defense allowing the 9^th-most WR points per game isn’t something you can leave on the bench.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 11: vs. Dal.): Jefferson flashed again in a big way on Monday night, possibly helping Kirk Cousins break his Monday night curse along the way. Jefferson posted 8 catches and 135 yards as Kirk Cousins got his first win as a starter on Monday Night Football in his 10^th try. It also continued a strange pattern with Jefferson, who has put up blowup games every third game. In team games 3, 6, and 9, Jefferson has had at least 9 targets and 135 yards receiving in each one, averaging 8-159-1 on 10 targets in those games. In the team’s other 6 games, he hasn’t seen more than 5 targets in any of them and has only reached 50 receiving yards twice. I’m not going to read too much into this trend just yet. I think it’s mostly coincidence, but I thought it was interesting to note. This week’s matchup with the Cowboys is a good one. Dallas allows the 3^rd-most WR points per game, and while Minnesota may play from ahead and lean on the run game, I’d have a hard time leaving Jefferson’s upside on the bench in such a favorable matchup. He’s a solid WR3 this week with the upside for a lot more.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 11: @Den.): Tua has looked sharp in his last two starts, but hasn’t reached QB1 levels as he finished as the QB16 and QB15 in those two games. Denver isn’t a pushover defense, but they also aren’t a very daunting one either. The Broncos rank 12^th in pass defense DVOA but allow the 14^th-most QB points per game. They gave up 3 passing scores in 2 of their last 3 games, and the only reason they held Derek Carr in check last weekend was that the Raiders ran all over them in a blowout win. I don’t expect this game to be as lopsided. Tua probably finishes somewhere in that high-to-mid QB2 range again. He’s worth consideration if you’re missing your starter in a 1-QB league, and he’s a solid QB2 in superflex and 2-QB formats.

QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 11: @Was.): Burrow finished last week with his 2^nd-lowest fantasy scoring game of the season in a daunting matchup with the Steelers, and this week he gets another matchup that looks tough on paper. Despite their poor record, Washington ranks 5^th in pass defense DVOA and allows the 11^th-fewest QB points per game. When you dig a little deeper, it looks like Washington’s numbers were built in a 3-game stretch where they got to face off with Daniel Jones (twice) and Andy Dalton, and gave up fewer than 15 QB points in each game. In the 3 games around that stretch, they gave up 23+ points to Matt Stafford, Jared Goff, and Lamar Jackson. I think Burrow is closer to that second group than the first one. I’d still tread a little carefully here with Burrow and view him more as a QB2 than a QB1 in what is still not a plus-matchup.

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 11: vs. Pit.): I’m not going to pretend that you might sit James Robinson if you have him, but it’s worth noting that you should temper your expectations for him this week and probably shouldn’t be targeting him in DFS formats. The Steelers allow the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game and rank 6^th in run defense DVOA. Pittsburgh is also a 10-point favorite, so game script could be working against Robinson. Throughout the season Robinson has had a pretty safe built-in floor with his receiving usage, averaging about 4 catches and 32 receiving yards per game, but that hasn’t carried over to Luton’s starts. In the last two weeks with Minshew out, Robinson has just 2 catches for 3 yards on 7 targets. The Steelers allow a league-low 3 running back catches per game. Robinson is likely going to have to earn his points on the ground this week, and as a 2-score underdog, it could be a more uphill fight than we’re used to. Robinson will be a low-floor RB2 against the Steelers.

RB Salvon Ahmed, MIA (Wk. 11: @Den.): Ahmed had an impressive day last Sunday putting up 85 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers. He seems to have a pretty firm grasp on the early-down role until Myles Gaskin returns from injury, and the matchup this week isn’t much tougher than the one he just faced. Denver allows the 14^th-most RB points per game, and in the last 3 weeks they’ve allowed 2 pairs of teammates to run for over 150 combined yards against them (Devontae Booker/Josh Jacobs last week, and Justin Jackson/Troymaine Pope in week 8). There’s plenty of upside for Ahmed to run the ball well again in this one. He doesn’t get much receiving usage – just 1 target in the last 2 games, so the cap that puts on his ceiling makes him more of a flex play than a solid RB2.

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 11: vs. GB): It’s been a precipitous fall from grace for Jonathan Taylor over the last few weeks, at least among fantasy players. Since the Colts’ bye in week 7, Taylor has played less than 35% of the snaps in each game and seen that share drop each week since that bye. He did find the end zone once in those games, but also lost a fumble and averaged just 34 scrimmage yards per game. With the way that Frank Reich uses his running backs, there’s always a chance that Taylor gets the hot hand and gets some extended usage, but it’s hard to count on that given the way he’s played in recent weeks. The matchup with Green Bay is a good one. The Packers allow the 3^rd-most RB points per game, but this could be more of a Nyheim Hines week as Green Bay gives up the 2^nd-most RB receiving yardage per game. Even in his diminished role, Taylor has averaged 8 carries and 2 catches per game since the bye, so you could talk yourself into using him if you’re desperate for a running back.

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 11: vs. Ten.): The Ravens’ offense hasn’t been quite right in the last few weeks, with 3 of their 4 lowest team point totals coming in the last 3 games, and the return of Mark Ingram isn’t going to benefit Dobbins. In Ingram’s first game back, Dobbins handled just 6 touches and gained 14 scrimmage yards. He averaged 15 touches per game in the 2 games Ingram missed. The matchup this week is favorable with the Titans allowing the 8^th-most RB points per game, but it’s uncertain that Dobbins will see enough work to take advantage. The Ravens are a 6.5-point favorite, so game script should be in their favor, but given the workload split in Baltimore, Dobbins is no more than a desperation flex option in deeper leagues.

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 11: @Was.): Higgins continued his impressive rookie campaign last week with a 7-115-1 line against the Steelers. It was his 6^th-straight game with 60+ yards and his best fantasy day of the season. He’s very likely to reach that 60-yard minimum again this week, but this probably won’t be a ceiling week for him. Washington allows the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game, largely on their ability to limit wide receiver touchdowns. They’ve given up just 5 TDs to the position all year and are the only defense in the league that hasn’t allowed a 100-yard day to an opposing wideout. You know what kind of floor you get with Higgins, and he should be fine as a WR3, but if you have another option with more upside this might be a week to consider them. Higgins missed practice with an illness late in the week, so there is even more uncertainty thrown in. Make sure to monitor his status if you plan to play him.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 11: @Min.): Lamb actually managed to post a solid day against Pittsburgh going into the bye with Garrett Gilbert under center. It sounds like Andy Dalton will be back at QB this week, but it’s unclear if that will be an upgrade or not. Lamb has the highest target share of any receiver on the team when Dalton is in (22.3%), but he’s turned 19 targets from Dalton into just 9 catches for 85 yards. The Vikings are a plus matchup for receivers, allowing the 5^th-most WR points per game, but with the inconsistency of this offense since Dak’s season ended I’d view Lamb as a volatile WR3 option.

WR Michael Pittman Jr., IND (Wk. 11: vs. GB): Pittman was one of the stars of the Colts’ victory last Thursday, posting his first career 100-yard game. He looks to be fully recovered from his compartment leg syndrome and may be pulling ahead of TY Hilton for the team’s WR1 role. I’d still expect the Packers’ top corner Jaire Alexander to be matched up on Hilton, which should mean Pittman is in line for another decent day. The Packers have the offensive firepower to keep the Colts throwing, and while Green Bay does a decent job of limiting WR production (they allow the 9^th-fewest WR points per game), they rank just a middling 16^th in pass-defense DVOA and have been burned by Keelan Cole and Richie James in recent weeks. Those guys may be closer stylistically to Hilton, but I’d still view Pittman as an upside WR3 in this matchup.

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 11: vs. Mia.): Jeudy came back down to earth a little bit last week after his breakout week 9 performance, but he still posted his 3^rd straight game with double-digit PPR points and more than 65 receiving yards. He’ll face a tough individual matchup this week against Byron Jones, but he’s been peppered with targets in recent weeks (32 total in the last 3 games). I’d be a little nervous for him if Lock is out and Brett Rypien starts. In Rypien’s one previous start, Jeudy was targeted just 4 times, but it’s a small enough sample that I wouldn’t overreact to it. The week before that game when Rypien came on in relief of Jeff Driskel, he targeted Jeudy 3 times in just 9 attempts. Jeudy is a reasonable WR3 or flex option this week, but don’t expect a ceiling game against Jones.

WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 11: @Cle.): Reagor was on the field for a season-high 88% of the offensive snaps last week and targeted a season-high 7 times in that game despite Alshon Jeffery’s return. He’s now seen 13 targets in 2 games since returning and is basically neck & neck with Travis Fulgham for WR1 status on the team. This week he faces off with a Cleveland defense that allows the 6^th-most WR points per game and ranks 20^th in pass defense DVOA. He does draw the toughest individual matchup with Denzel Ward, but against this defense, he’s still got room to post a nice day if he sees another 7+ targets. Carson Wentz has been up & down this year, so there is some volatility here, but if you believe Reagor’s WR1 role is for real, he’s an upside WR4 this week.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Jake Luton, JAX (Wk. 11: vs. Pit.): Luton came back down to earth a bit in his second NFL start against Green Bay. The Jaguars hung around in the game, but the rookie finished as the QB22 with fewer than 10 fantasy points. He gets an even tougher matchup this week. Pittsburgh ranks 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and allows the 5^th-fewest QB points per game. Luton should get Laviska Shenault back this week, but that likely won’t be enough help to push him into being a useful option against the Steelers. He’s probably not worth considering even as a QB2.

RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 11: vs. NYJ): Week after week I’ve been listing Kelley as a borderline option as part of the backfield committee in LA, and week after week he fails to produce a quality stat line. His ceiling games have been around 10 PPR points, and that just isn’t the kind of upside you’re hoping for from him. He hasn’t found the end zone since week 1, and at the moment this backfield looks like the Kalen Ballage show. Kelley played just 27% of the offensive snaps last week while Ballage played the other 73%. The matchup this week is good. The Jets are the worst team in the league and allow the 7^th-most RB points per game, but we’ve been burned by Kelley time and again. I wouldn’t want to use him even in this plus matchup unless I was pretty desperate. This probably means he’s going to have his best game of the season.

RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 11: vs. Ari.): Carlos Hyde will be active tonight, and will likely slot in as the lead back for Seattle on early downs with Chris Carson sidelined again and Alex Collins back on the practice squad. Travis Homer will be out tonight as well, so Dallas will serve as the 3^rd-down back against a Cardinals team that doesn’t give up a lot of receptions to the opposing backfields (just 4.4 per game). Only Raheem Mostert, Ezekiel Elliott, and Mike Davis have caught more than 3 passes in a game from the running back position against Arizona. With Hyde back, and Bo Scarbrough active as the 3^rd-string running back, it’s hard to imagine Dallas getting any opportunities at the goal line. Without a touchdown or a significant number of catches, there isn’t much upside for Dallas.

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 11: @TB): Akers has started to become a bigger part of the backfield committee for the Rams, but the role he’s carved out doesn’t have a lot of fantasy upside. For starters, he has struggled in pass protection and as a result, hasn’t been getting many opportunities in passing situations. He has just 1 target in the last 2 games. He also isn’t getting the ball at the goal line. The Rams ran for 3 short scores last week, and it was Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson doing the scoring. The increased playing time is a good sign for Akers, but until he cleans up the pass blocking or starts run the ball effectively enough to make it hard for Sean McVay to keep him off the field, he’s not going to be seeing the high-value touches. Against a Tampa defense that ranks 2^nd in run defense DVOA, you don’t want to bet on Akers producing in that limited role.

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 11: vs. Pit.): As I mentioned with Jake Luton, the Jacksonville passing game as a whole is going to be shaky this week. The Steelers have been vulnerable to wide receivers, allowing the 11^th-most points per game to the position, but the guys who have made them pay have been bigger perimeter wide receivers. The 4 highest point totals they’ve allowed to receivers this year were put up by Darius Slayton, AJ Brown, Travis Fulgham, and Tee Higgins. Shenault is not that kind of receiver. If he finds his way to 60 yards and a score in this one it would be a wildly successful game for him.

WRs Henry Ruggs & Bryan Edwards, LV (Wk. 11: vs. KC): Ruggs is a guy that I always view as a boom-or-bust kind of player, but he has consistently busted since his breakout performance against the Chiefs back in week 5. He totaled 118 yards and a touchdown in that game but has a total of just 7 catches for 74 yards on 14 targets in the 4 games since. Are the Chiefs the opponent to get him booming again? I probably wouldn’t bet on it. The Chiefs allow the 5^th-fewest WR points per game, and Ruggs’ 2 catches of 40+ yards in the first meeting make up half of the 40+ yard completions Kansas City has allowed all year. Keep him sidelined. His teammate Bryan Edwards took a step forward last week, playing 20 snaps in his first extended action since week 3. I wouldn’t consider him this week, but if his snap share keeps trending in the right direction, he should be a better weekly fantasy play than Ruggs before long.

WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 11: vs. Ten.): Duvernay’s time may be coming, but the recent resurgence of Willie Snead in the slot for the Ravens hurts Duvernay’s upside. He’d be best suited to stretching the seam from the slot, and Snead seems to have that role pretty well locked down right now. Duvernay has moved ahead of Miles Boykin on the depth chart and played at least 40% of the offensive snaps in each of the last 3 weeks (a season-high 55% last weekend), but until that starts turning into more consistent targets he’s going to be a low-floor dart throw for fantasy. He’s been targeted just 6 times in those last 3 games. The Titans are burnable. They allow the 4^th-most WR points per game and Duvernay has splash play abilities, so if you want to take a swing in a DFS tournament be my guest. He only costs the minimum on DraftKings, but this passing game is too volatile for me to roll the dice on Duvernay right now.

WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 11: @Car.): There is some potential upside for Cephus this week with Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola both missing practice on Thursday, but it’s been clear in the past couple of weeks that the Marvins – Hall & Jones – are the ones who will benefit most from their absence. The Lions’ QB Matt Stafford will be playing through a torn ligament in his throwing hand, which throws a little additional uncertainty into how effective the Detroit passing game will be, and there’s always a chance that they call up Mohamed Sanu from the practice squad and that he siphons snaps from Cephus. Add in the fact that Carolina allows the 12^th-fewest WR points per game, and a possible expanded role for the rookie just isn’t all that exciting in this one. If you’re scrounging this far down the WR ranks, I’d take a swing on a higher ceiling than Cephus has this week.

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 11: vs. Phi.): Peoples-Jones did play a handful more snaps last week than he did in week 10, even hauling in a couple of catches for 16 yards, but he’s still playing as the WR4 in this offense…an offense that ran the ball on about two-thirds of their offensive plays a week ago now that Nick Chubb is back. There isn’t a reason to start DPJ in any formats this week.

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 11: vs. Phi.): After posting a goose egg last week, you probably don’t need me to tell you to sit Bryant. It’s ugly enough at tight end this week that a lot of folks playing on ESPN are using Taysom Hill as a tight end streamer, so you may be looking pretty far down the ranks for help. The Eagles do allow the 6^th-most tight end points per game, but as I mentioned under Peoples-Jones, with Nick Chubb back last week the Browns ran the ball on about two-thirds of their offensive snaps in a close game. With Austin Hooper back, Bryant’s snap share is down to just over 50%, so he’ll likely be limited to less than 20 routes run. You’re counting on a TD if you play him, and if you don’t get one another goose egg is entirely possible.

Rookies on Byes: RB Zack Moss, BUF, RB JaMycal Hasty, SF (also out with broken collarbone), WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF, WR Darnell Mooney, CHI, WR Gabriel Davis, BUF, WR Austin Mack, NYG, TE Cole Kmet, CHI

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB La’Mical Perine, NYJ (WK. 11: @LAC): It’s undoubtedly a trap to suggest playing any Adam Gase running back, but I actually like Perine’s chances at a decent day in this one. Frank Gore continues to see more rushing work than the rookie, but the Jets have talked breathlessly about wanting to get Perine more involved. This would be a good week to do it. The Chargers have allowed the 11^th-most RB points per game, but more importantly, have allowed more than 6 catches per game to the position, and Perine has 2 catches in each of the last 4 games while Gore has 8 catches all season. Perine is mostly a desperation flex play in season-long leagues, but he costs little more than the minimum on DraftKings and I’ve got a feeling he’s going to outplay that cost.

RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 11: @Jax.): McFarland missed last week’s game with an illness, but should be good to go for week 11. Prior to his absence, he had played more snaps than Benny Snell in week 10 and seemed to be starting to carve out a bigger role for himself. The key to this matchup for McFarland will be garbage time, and how much of it there will be. I kind of suggested playing this game last week with AJ Dillon against these same Jaguars, and that didn’t work out so well, but it’s worth noting that McFarland could see some extended run if the Steelers get far enough out in front. He has more big-play speed than Snell, so he has a better chance of cashing that garbage time work into fantasy points. I wouldn’t look at him as anything more than a cheap DFS tournament play though.

WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 11: vs. Mia.): After seeing 10 targets in back-to-back games now that he plays primarily in the slot, I might be doing Hamler a disservice to call him a ‘deep-league sleeper’. If Drew Lock misses this game as expected, Hamler could lose a little bit of that mojo, but since he’s in the slot he’ll mostly avoid top corners Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. Instead, he’ll face off with Nik Needham, which should result in some extra looks going Hamler’s way. The Dolphins allow the 13^th-most WR points per game, and Hamler should be in a pretty good spot to take advantage of a reasonable matchup. His price tag could be a steal at $3,600 on DraftKings, and he should be a decent flex option for deeper leagues.

WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 11: @LAC): Since returning from injury Mims has played a significant role in the Jets’ offense. He’s been on the field for 96% of the offensive snaps in each of the last two weeks and seen 6 targets per game since his return. He’s played one game with Joe Flacco at QB, and in that game, he turned 8 targets into 4 catches and 62 yards. This week he faces a Chargers’ defense that does a pretty good job limiting wideouts, allowing the 6^th-fewest points per game to the position, but it’ll be Breshad Perriman who gets the toughest matchup, squaring off with Casey Heyward. Slot man Jamison Crowder will be the Jet with the most favorable matchup, but Flacco showed a willingness to take deep shots in his last start, and I’d expect Mims to be the guy who benefits if that happens again this week. He’s shown a built-in floor with at least 40 yards in each game he’s played, but he’s got an upside this week well beyond his $3,300 price tag on DraftKings.

WR Freddy Swain, SEA (Wk. 11: vs. Ari.): Keep a close eye on the status of Tyler Lockett for Thursday night before considering Swain. If Lockett is out the rookie has some sneaky upside for DFS tournaments, especially the Thursday showdown slate where he costs just $1,200 on DraftKings. Swain has been consistently playing around 30-35% of the offensive snaps with everybody healthy. It hasn’t really translated to targets, but he did manage to post 3-37 on 4 targets last Sunday. If Lockett misses the game or is limited, both Swain and David Moore would be in line for bigger roles against a defense that allows the 8^th-most points per game to opposing WRs. There would be upside for both, but Swain’s lower price tag will make him an intriguing option.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to check the active/inactive updates on Sunday, and make sure you don’t start a sidelined player. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on Twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

0 Targets in Week 11

The WR3 this week, (or TE1, depending on your hosting site) had exactly zero targets in the passing game this week but put up 24.42 points. In surely the most controversial issue of the fantasy season, Taysom Hill started at QB this week for the Saints, while retaining WR or TE eligibility on most fantasy platforms. This was surely a triumph of the well prepared because Hill found the end zone twice on the ground and also threw for 223 yards, more than doubling his career passing yards total. He still sits at zero passing TDs, but has 13 career rushing & receiving TDs, already halfway to Drew Brees’s career total. The fantasy football story from this game that has been buried is that Michael Thomas finally had a good game. He broke out for 9 receptions and 104 yards, more than he had combined in his previous three starts in 2020. Going into next week’s much tougher matchup against Denver, it’s anyone’s guess how Taysom Hill will perform, or even what positions he will be eligible to start in. One thing I think we might be able to speculate with some confidence is that Michael Thomas has resumed duties as the WR1 on the New Orleans Saints.

25 Fantasy Points Per Game

With 9 starts now under his belt, Chargers rookie QB Justin Herbert is averaging 25 points per game, which is good for 5^th among all QBs in the league. This week he put up his second-highest total of the year, 27.74 points, on the strength of his highest passing yards total of 366 and 3 touchdowns in an easy victory of the Jets. Herbert is now 7^th in overall points at the QB position and 5^th in points per game, which is a remarkable feat considering he was only inserted as an emergency starter in Week 2, with no apparent plans to make him a starter that early in the season. Now that Joe Burrow is done for the year and we saw Tua Tagovailoa benched against Denver in the 4^th quarter, I think it’s safe that say that Justin Herbert has the Offensive Rookie of the Year award all but wrapped up with 6 games still remaining in the season.

16 Receptions

Keenan Allen caught 16 passes on Sunday, a franchise record for the Chargers, in a game that they had to have to avoid supreme embarrassment. Let’s face it, anyone who loses to the Jets this year will be the laughing stock of the week, so the Chargers did dodge that bullet in a game where they were up 24-6 at one point. That’s very on point for the Chargers this year. But I digress, let’s go back to Keenan Allen. He’s now leading the league with 81 receptions after 10 games. A bit off of Michael Thomas’s record-setting pace last year, but still on pace for 130 on the season and by far the most he’s had in a single season of his career, which was 104 last year. Allen has been a huge part of bringing Justin Herbert along as a rookie, and I don’t think that either player would be in the excellent fantasy position they are in without the other one.

3 Out of the Last 4 Weeks

Dalvin Cook has now led all running backs in fantasy points in 3 of the last 4 weeks. In Weeks 8 and 9, it was from gaudy totals of 47 and 38 points, but last week he led a rather low scoring group with 22.50 points. Cook has 14 total touchdowns on the season and has scored in all but one game this season. He also exceeded 100 yards from scrimmage for the 6^th time this season – his 4^th week in a row. Cook is now sitting all alone as the RB1 on the season, having edged out Alvin Kamara by 5 points, though Cook does have one fewer game played on the season, putting his average points per game well ahead of everyone other than Christian McCaffrey. While it’s certainly possible that Cook is passed in points by a player tonight, let’s just suppose that doesn’t happen. That means that while Cook has been on this hot 4 game tear, his team is 3-1, sweeping through the NFC North while dropping a game to the Dallas Cowboys of the embarrassing NFC East. Of course, the Cowboys did get Andy Dalton back who threw 3 touchdowns and saw Ezekiel Elliott crack 100 yards for the first time all season.

22.86 Fantasy Points

Travis Kelce continued his utterly dominant season this week, catching a wide-open touchdown to seal the victory for the Chiefs late in the 4^th quarter last night. Kelce now has 162.76 points on the season, which would make him the WR3 on the season if he played that position. Of course, instead, he’s the TE1, but since the numbers line up so well with Taysom Hill, why not just play with positional eligibly a little bit. Kelce has now finished as the top TE of the week 4 times on the season, and 3 of the last 4 weeks, just like Dalvin Cook. Kelce has the 3^rd most receiving yards in the league and leads all tight ends in every statistical category. Kelce is on a pace to have the second-most fantasy points in a season by a TE in NFL history, right on pace with Jimmy Graham’s 2013 season. He’s still got some work to do if he wants to match Rob Gronkowski’s 2011 season, however.