Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re now more than halfway through the NFL season, and that means we’re heading into the home stretch of the fantasy regular season. This is the point in the season where we typically see rookies start to turn the corner…where regular playing time starts to turn into more consistent production, and where some players we haven’t seen much of start to see their role expand. In 2019, all of Deebo Samuel’s top-3 yardage games came after week 8. For AJ Brown, all of his top-4 were after week 10. Miles Sanders, Diontae Johnson, Hunter Renfrow, N’Keal Harry, and Noah Fant all saw their roles expand in the back half of 2019 as well. Who will those players be in 2020? From what we’ve seen in recent weeks Chase Claypool and Jerry Jeudy may be turning that corner right now. Zack Moss, LaMical Perine and D’Andre Swift have been seeing their workloads expand as well, and even Cam Akers got a handful of carries last week. Before we get ahead of ourselves and start thinking about what the rest of the season holds for the rookies, let’s talk about what to expect in week 10…

(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under same header at same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)

Rookies to Start:

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 10: @GB): It’s been an ugly year for the Jacksonville Jaguars, but that hasn’t stopped Robinson from being the most productive rookie running back in the league so far. He’s the RB4 for the season, and this week gets to face a Green Bay defense that has allowed the 2^nd-most RB points per game and ranks 20^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. In 8 games, the Packers have faced off with a top-13 fantasy running back 5 times, and the lowest fantasy output any of them have posted against Green Bay was 18.8 points from Todd Gurley. There is a little concern for Robinson this week since Jacksonville is a 2-touchdown underdog and Chris Thompson siphons off a bit of the passing down work each week, but you have to bet on Robinson coming through again. He’s shown time and again that he can still produce in blowout losses, and Green Bay is about as burnable as it gets for RB matchups. Robinson should be worth his price tag in DFS formats this week.

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 10: @Det.): For much of this season Antonio Gibson has seen a cap put on his fantasy upside by Washington’s dedication to separating the early down work from the 3^rd down work. Gibson has just 1 touch all year on 3^rd down. JD McKissic is dominating the 3^rd down workload, so Gibson has to make his mark on early downs. Luckily, he gets to face the Detroit Lions this week, who have given up an average of 137 rushing yards on 1^st and 2^nd down per game. The Lions allow more fantasy points per game to opposing running backs than any other team in the league, and have given up 13+ fantasy points to the opposing lead back in every game since week 3. The Lions are favored to win by 4, but this should be a competitive enough game that Gibson is involved throughout. He’s a safe RB2 with upside for more.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. Cin.): Claypool seems to have finally turned the corner in recent weeks, seeing strong target shares in games where Diontae Johnson was fully healthy. Claypool has been targeted 22 times in the last 2 weeks, and has turned in 15+ PPR points in each game. This week the Steelers face off with the Bengals, who rank 25^th in pass defense DVOA, and the Steelers have a healthy implied total of 27.5 points. We’ve seen the weekly upside Claypool has flashed this season. You may be kicking yourself if you leave him on your bench in this one.

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 10: @Pit.): On the other side of the Steelers-Bengals matchup, Tee Higgins should be in line for another solid game. The Steelers have had one of the most formidable defenses in the league, but they’ve struggled to shut down opposing wide receivers. Pittsburgh has allowed the 9^th-most WR points per game, and they’ve struggled with both perimeter and slot receivers. Higgins has been remarkably consistent despite having Tyler Boyd and AJ Green competing with him for targets. The rookie has at least 7 targets in 5 of his last 6 games, and 60+ yards in each of his last 5. This isn’t a week where he’ll have the highest ceiling, but Higgins is going to be a safe WR3 with a high floor despite facing a pretty solid pass defense.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 10: vs. LAC): Tua quickly made people forget his inauspicious debut in his second start, finishing as the QB16 in a game against a solid QB defense in Arizona. This week he faces a Chargers defense that allows the 4th-most QB points per game. His weapons aren’t at full strength with Myles Gaskin and Preston Williams on IR, but I trust Tua to post another solid game and flirt with QB1 territory. He costs $1,000 less than Justin Herbert on DraftKings, but I’d give him a slightly better than 50/50 chance to finish with more points than his fellow rookie.

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 10: @Mia.): Herbert has been a locked-and-loaded QB1 most weeks since the start of October, with at least 21 fantasy points in each game, but the Dolphins have forced some QB floor games this year. They’ve allowed fewer than 13 fantasy points to the opposing QB 3 different times this season, and the guys that they’ve struggled with have been running QBs (Cam Newton, Josh Allen, and Kyler Murray). Herbert has some mobility, but it’s not a focal point of his game. The Dolphins rank 8^th in pass defense DVOA. If you have Herbert, you’re probably playing him, but be warned that this might not be one of his top performances. I’d view him as more of a contrarian play in DFS formats, and a borderline option in 1-QB leagues.

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 10: vs. Was.): I mentioned you should start Antonio Gibson this week, but on the opposite side of the Washington-Detroit game, D’Andre Swift should be in line for another useful fantasy day as well. The Football Team is much better at defending the pass than the run. They rank 1^st in pass defense DVOA, but just a middling 17^th in run defense DVOA and are fresh off allowing Wayne Gallman to post an RB6 finish a week ago. There is a ‘revenge game’ narrative for Adrian Peterson in this one, and the Lions have less-than-exciting implied total for a favorite at just 24.75, so Swift isn’t an auto-start here. I do like his chances of returning an RB2 performance, but wouldn’t go out of my way to play him over safer choices.

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 10: @NE): Dobbins came back down to earth a bit last weekend against the Colts after a breakout game the week before. His outlook this week could get a little murkier with Mark Ingram looking likely to return (he practiced on Friday). New England can be run on. They rank 31^st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 13^th-most RB points per game, and Baltimore should have game script in their favor as a touchdown favorite. If Ingram returns, this will go back to being a 3-headed monster at running back, so Dobbins would likely be in line for 10-12 carries. That kind of workload would likely make him a fringe RB2 if he’s able to find the end zone. You could do worse if you’re struggling to fill in a last RB spot.

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 10: @Ari.): Moss has steadily worked himself into a bigger role since returning from injury a few weeks back, and has now played more snaps and posted more fantasy points than Devin Singletary in each of the last 2 weeks. The key to his fantasy production has been and will continue to be touchdowns. He’s found the end zone 3 times in the last 2 weeks. The workload split with Singletary means Moss will be in the range of 10 touches most weeks, and more often than not that isn’t going to get him to the RB2 range without a touchdown. This week he faces an Arizona defense that is the definition of middling against running backs. They rank 16^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 17^th-most RB points per game. The Bills do have an implied total of 27.25 in what should be a bit of a shootout, so a TD may be in the offing for Moss. He’s a reasonable flex option.

RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 10: @Mia.): With Austin Ekeler’s return looming, Kelley’s time as a fantasy relevant back this year may be winding down. He’s had trouble holding off Justin Jackson, Troymaine Pope and Kalen Ballage for work in recent weeks, and once Ekeler returns any one of those guys could push Kelley completely to the bench. For this week, there is a chance that Pope and Ballage handle the bulk of the work, but I wouldn’t count on that happening. I expect Kelley to see in the range of 10-12 touches, and Miami ranks 29^th in run defense DVOA and allows the 11^th-most RB points per game. I’d view Kelley as a risky flex option in leagues with 12+ teams.

RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 10: @LAR): The Seahawks have officially ruled out Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde yet again this week, so DeeJay Dallas will face the Rams in a backfield committee with Travis Homer and Alex Collins. Last week with the same competition, Dallas played 31% of the offensive snaps and handled 45% of the running back touches. His role might have been larger if the Seahawks hadn’t played from behind all game. Seattle enters this week as a 1.5-point underdog, but one with an implied total of 27.5 points in a potential shootout. The Rams aren’t an inviting matchup, allowing the 7^th-fewest RB points per game. A running back in a limited role facing that matchup isn’t one that you should be eager to get into your lineup. He has enough upside that you could talk yourself into using him as flex option, but you’ll probably be better off looking elsewhere.

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 10: @LV): Jeudy posted his best game of the season in week 9, finishing as the WR8 for the week. In recent weeks, KJ Hamler has started to play more slot snaps and Jeudy has spent more time on the outside, and the results have been favorable for Jeudy. This week he faces off with the Raiders, who rank 26^th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed a perimeter receiver to go over 75 receiving yards in all but 2 games this year. After his breakout game, I expect Jeudy to have a better chance than Tim Patrick to be the Bronco that gets to 75 yards this week. Jeudy should be a reasonable WR3 this week in a game where the Broncos could be chasing points as a 5-point underdog.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 10: @NO): Aiyuk will once again be San Francisco’s default #1 receiving option this week. Deebo Samuel remains sidelined with injury, and Aiyuk had a 25% target share with Samuel sidelined in week 8. Aiyuk is likely to face off with New Orleans’ top corner Marshon Lattimore, which could cap his upside a little, but Kyle Shanahan is a clever enough coach to move him around the formation and use him as a rusher as well to get him away from Lattimore a bit. The Saints do rank 9^th in pass defense DVOA, but I still like Aiyuk’s chances to post a WR3 day Sunday. He should be a safe bet for 7+ targets in a game where the 49ers are 9-point underdogs.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 10: @Chi.): Jefferson has flashed overall WR1 upside some weeks, but he’s been a bit volatile from week-to-week. He’s had two games of over 150 yards this season, and 3 with fewer than 30 yards. The Bears are not an easy matchup, allowing the 3^rd-fewest points per game to the position, so there is a chance this is more of a floor week for Jefferson. His low output weeks have usually come when the Vikings play from ahead, and they are 2.5-point favorites this week. Jefferson’s upside is tough to sit, but if you have other strong options this isn’t a bad week to chance sitting him. If he tops 60 yards it will be a successful week for the rookie.

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 10: vs. Min.): Mooney led the Bears in targets in week 9 with 11 of them, and while I don’t expect for him to continue to see more targets than Allen Robinson, his usage has been pretty consistent since the start of October. Mooney has at least 5 targets in each of the last 7 games, and is averaging 8 per game over the last 3. The Vikings allow the 2^nd-most WR points per game, so Mooney has a solid chance at double-digit PPR points even if he doesn’t out-target A-Rob again.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 10: @Pit.): Burrow is probably fine as a QB2 this week given the limited slate of games and his recent production. He’s thrown for over 300 yards 5 times in his last 7 starts and only been held short of 15 fantasy points once in those games. I would shy away from considering him in 1-QB formats though. This isn’t going to be a ceiling week for the rookie. Pittsburgh hasn’t allowed 20 fantasy points to any QB they’ve faced this year, and an average of just over 12.5 QBs per week have topped 20 points. A QB1 week is likely not in the offing for Burrow against a defense that wants to show that last week’s performance against Dallas was an aberration. The Steelers rank 3^rd in pass defense DVOA and allow the 5^th-fewest QB points per game.

QB Jake Luton, JAX (Wk. 10: @GB): Luton acquitted himself better than I expected him to in his first NFL start, finishing as the QB15 with over 300 yards and a TD through the air, and another TD on the ground. He did that against one of the worst QB defenses in the league though in Houston. The Packers allow the 6^th-fewest QB points per game, and Jacksonville has an implied total below 20 points. The way to hang in the game with Green Bay is to run the ball, and I’d expect a lot of James Robinson in this one. Luton is only worth consideration as a low-end QB2 option.

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 10: vs. Sea.): Akers finally got himself into the backfield mix in the Rams’ last contest with Darrell Henderson suffering a thigh injury, and he managed to put up 54 scrimmage yards on 9 carries and 1 catch. It’s possible that the strong performance leads to more work for Akers coming out of the bye week, but Darrell Henderson will return this week and is the likeliest bet to lead the backfield in week 10. Seattle allows the 13^th-fewest RB points per game and ranks 9^th in run defense DVOA. If Henderson leads the way for this backfield as expected, Akers faces an uphill battle to post a useful fantasy day in this matchup.

RB JaMycal Hasty, SF (Wk. 10: @NO): The 49ers backfield without Raheem Mostert has proven to be a weekly crapshoot, and for the time being it looks like Jerick McKinnon is at the top of the depth chart. Hasty will mix in a fair amount for as long as the 49ers remain in the game, but the passing work will likely go mostly to McKinnon and the Saints are favored by 9. New Orleans also allows the 5^th-fewest RB points per game. Hasty is best left on the bench this week.

RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. Cin.): McFarland handled 5 touches last Sunday, the most he’s had in a game since week 3, but he totaled just 22 scrimmage yards. The Steelers were surprisingly trailing for much of the game against Dallas. I wouldn’t expect a repeat of that scenario this week. The Steelers are favored by 7.5 points against Cincy, so I’d expect them to get back to using James Conner quite a bit. McFarland shouldn’t be near your starting lineups.

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 10: @Ari.): Davis is coming off a 4-70-1 performance on 5 targets against the Seahawks last Sunday, but he posted those numbers on the fewest snaps he’s played since week 2, and the Seahawks have been the worst WR defense in the league by a LOT. No team comes within 10 points per game of what Seattle allows to the position. Week 9 was the first time in almost a month that Davis posted more than 1 catch and more than 11 yards.  The fact that he did so with a shrinking snap share means he shouldn’t be counted on to do it again. The Cardinals are a much tougher WR defense than the Seahawks, allowing the 15^th-most WR points per game…which is a full 17 points per game less than Seattle gives up to the position. Davis is best left on the bench this week.

WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 10: vs. Den.): There is going to come a week where Henry Ruggs has another blowup game, but with the type of production he’s been posting from week-to-week, I’d rather it happen from my bench than risk him putting up less than 5 points in the lineup. Ruggs has fewer than 5 points in 3 out of the 6 games he’s played, and just 5.5 in one of the others. Denver does allow the 8^th-most WR points per game, but they’re above average when it comes to not giving up big plays. Only 9 teams have allowed fewer completions of 20+ yards than the Broncos. I’d avoid Ruggs’ rookie teammate Bryan Edwards for now as well. Edwards played just 1 snap in his return a week ago.

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 10: vs. Hou.): The Browns have played just one full game since the injury to Odell Beckham Jr., and Peoples-Jones played just 4 snaps in that game as Khadarel Hodge moved back into 3-wide receiver sets. The Browns’ offense is going to get more crowded this week as they get Austin Hooper & Nick Chubb back on the field. This is a plus matchup for most offensive players, but I doubt DPJ sees the field much.

WR Austin Mack, NYG (Wk. 10: vs. Phi.): Mack made the most of an unexpected opportunity last weekend when the Giants benched Golden Tate for the week. He hauled in 4 of 5 targets for 72 yards, but Tate will be back in the lineup this Sunday. Mack will be lucky to play more than 10-15 snaps in this one behind Tate, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton.

WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 10: vs. Was.): Kenny Golladay is out again this week, but even with him missing this game, I wouldn’t look to Cephus as a fill-in. He’ll be on the field a reasonable amount (he played 41% of the snaps last week), but he’s essentially playing as the #3 guy in a 3-man rotation for the team’s WR2 & 3 roles with Marvin Hall & Danny Amendola. Washington allows the fewest WR points per game, so this isn’t a matchup to bet on Cephus making things happen with limited snaps.

WR Freddie Swain, SEA (Wk. 10: @LAR): Swain has been on the field a fair amount for Seattle, averaging about 24 snaps per game in the last 6 games, but he’s totaled just 5 catches on 9 targets in those games. Unless something happens to a wide receiver ahead of him there isn’t much reason to consider him.

WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 10: @Car.): As expected, the addition of Antonio Brown and the return of Chris Godwin have rendered Johnson irrelevant for fantasy purposes. He did record a catch on Sunday night, but played just 6 snaps and operated as the team’s WR5. Johnson is best left to the waiver wire unless more injuries pop up ahead of him.

Rookies on Byes: QB Ben DiNucci, DAL, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC, RB LaMical Perine, NYJ, WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL, WR Denzel Mims, NYJ

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Salvon Ahmed, MIA (Wk. 10: vs. LAC): Thanks to continued ineffectiveness from Jordan Howard, Ahmed looks like the best fantasy option in the Dolphins backfield until Myles Gaskin returns. Howard posted 19 yards on 10 carries last week, and now has just 33 yards on 28 carries on the year. Ahmed posted 38 yards on 7 carries in the first game he was active for all year. The Chargers are a vulnerable run defense, allowing the 12^th-most fantasy points per game to backs, and ranking 23^rd in run defense DVOA. Ahmed is a worthwhile option if you’re desperate for a running back in deep leagues, and he costs the minimum on DraftKings this week.

RB AJ Dillon, GB (Wk. 10: vs. Jax.): Dillon hasn’t really gotten much opportunity this season, even when Aaron Jones missed time with injury, but this week could set up for some garbage time carries for the rookie. The Packers are favored by 13.5 points, and the Jaguars are a favorable running back matchup. Jacksonville allows the 6^th-most RB points per game and rank 21^st in run defense DVOA. Dillon could push for double-digit touches in garbage time if the Packers pull away. This has a decent chance to be Dillon’s best fantasy game of the season, even if that isn’t saying all that much. His current high-water mark is 4.2 points.

WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 10: @NYG): We haven’t seen the Eagles fully unleash Reagor just yet, and I’m not sure we see it this week either. Alshon Jeffery will make his season debut, and that will throw some uncertainty into how the WR snaps shake out. If I had to guess, Greg Ward is the receiver who will lose the most snaps to Jeffery, but if that happens it’s unclear which of Reagor or Travis Fulgham will play in the slot. The Giants are a favorable matchup for wide receivers, allowing the 10^th-most WR points per game and ranking 28^th in pass defense DVOA, and Reagor found the end zone in the last meeting between these two teams. I’d expect Jeffery to be on a bit of a pitch count, and Fulgham to be the best fantasy option of the WR group, but Reagor will have some upside as well in the plus matchup. The best place to consider him would be in DFS though. I’d be more inclined to take a wait-and-see approach with Reagor in season-long leagues to see how the receiver rotation shakes out with Alshon back.

WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 10: @LV): I would probably stay away from Hamler in season-long leagues unless they’re pretty deep, but he’s an intriguing low-priced DFS tournament option this week. Hamler costs just $3,800 on DraftKings, and as mentioned under Jerry Jeudy the Broncos could be chasing points and the Raiders rank 26^th in pass defense DVOA. Hamler’s move to the slot in recent weeks means he gets to face off with Lamarcus Joyner this week, who has been the weakest of the Raiders’ corners. Hamler saw a season-high 10 targets last Sunday, and there is a good chance that Denver is throwing 40+ times again in this one.TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 10: vs. Hou.): Austin Hooper returns this week, but it was clear while Hooper was out that Bryant is the #2 tight end in this offense over David Njoku. The Browns use two tight end sets as their base offense, and the Texans have given up 8-113-1 to Anthony Firkser, 3-35 to Vance McDonald, and a touchdown to Jace Sternberger this season. Backup tight ends have had success against Houston. Overall, they allow the 10^th-most TE points per game, so Bryant is a little bit better than a TD dart throw this week.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to check the active/inactive updates on Sunday, and make sure you don’t start a sidelined player. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report, and happy Turkey Day! Hopefully, you’ve been able to find a safe, socially distanced way to see family for the holiday and still eat a gluttonous amount of food. There will be a bit less football on Thursday than originally planned with the Baltimore-Pittsburgh game moved to Sunday, but it’ll still be the first week with all 32 teams in action since September. The rookie class won’t be quite at full strength after injuries to Joe Burrow and LaMical Perine, and a positive COVID test for JK Dobbins and a benching for Jake Luton, but most of the rookies will be in action this week. The WR class continued to pace the field in rookie production with strong weeks from Justin Jefferson, Chase Claypool, Michael Pittman Jr., and CeeDee Lamb (who made a spectacular TD catch), but the top of the running back class got back on track too. Clyde Edwards-Helaire scored two touchdowns, Antonio Gibson and JK Dobbins found paydirt as well, and Jonathan Taylor topped 100 scrimmage yards for the first time since week 6. In all, there was 4 rookie running backs in the top-12 RBs for the week. Even Cam Akers got into the end zone for the first time this year. Will the rookies continue to be useful in week 12 as you make your final push for the fantasy playoffs? Let’s dive in and find out…

(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under the same header at the same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)

Rookies to Start:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 12: @Buf.): The beat goes on for Justin Herbert after another stellar performance in week 11 against the hapless Jets. Herbert has accounted for 3+ touchdowns in 6 of his last 7 games and has thrown for more than 260 yards in 8 of his 9 starts. This week he gets to face a Bills’ defense that has numbers that don’t stack up to their reputation of being a tough defense. The Bills have allowed the 5^th-most QB points per game, and the only QBs they’ve held below 20 fantasy points are Sam Darnold (twice) and Cam Newton. The other 7 they’ve faced all hit that mark. Herbert should be locked in as your QB1 unless you have an elite guy like Mahomes or Russ ahead of him.

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 12: vs. Cle.): The Jaguars have made the regrettable decision to turn to Mike Glennon at quarterback this week. While that isn’t an ideal change for the offense as a whole, it shouldn’t be a problem for Robinson, who has shown in recent weeks that he can run effectively with a bum at QB. Defenses focusing on him has not been a problem. Glennon at QB also shouldn’t hurt Robinson’s chances at being productive in the passing game. In his last stint as a starter with the Bears in 2017, Glennon targeted Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard a combined 44 times in 4 starts (albeit on a team with a bad WR group). Cleveland looks like a tough matchup on paper, allowing the 8^th fewest running back points per game, but that’s mostly a product of a positive game script. The Browns have been leading on the scoreboard for 56% of their defensive snaps. Cleveland ranks just a middling 15^th in run defense DVOA, and just 23^rd in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs. Robinson has had at least 17 touches every week so far. I’d expect that to continue again in this one, and there is nothing in this matchup to scare me off of treating him like a low-end RB1 this week.

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 12: @Dal.): We finally got a chance to see last Sunday what it looks like for Gibson when Washington plays from ahead. Gibson played more snaps than JD McKissic for just the 3^rd time all season and the first time since week 5, and he finished with 104 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. This week’s matchup with the Cowboys should be close for much of the day, so Gibson should stay heavily involved. Dallas ranks just 25^th in run defense DVOA and allows the 14^th-most RB points per game. Most of the running back production they allow is on the ground, which should favor Gibson over McKissic. Dallas allows the 2^nd-fewest RB receptions and the fewest RB receiving yards per game. I like Gibson’s chances at putting up 80+ yards and finding the end zone for the 5^th-straight game.

RB Salvon Ahmed, MIA (Wk. 12: @NYJ): It looks like Ahmed may get one more week as the Phins’ lead back before Myles Gaskin returns from injury, and the Jets are a good team to get a start against. If Gaskin ends up playing this week, you don’t want to play Ahmed, and the rookie is dealing with a shoulder injury himself so keep an eye on the injury report this week before plugging him in. Assuming Ahmed plays and Gaskin doesn’t, Ahmed should be a strong fantasy play as the Dolphins face a defense that has allowed the 9^th-most running back points per game. They also enter the week as a touchdown favorite, so the game script should be on Ahmed’s side as well. He’s handled 22 and 17 touches in the two games he’s started, and that kind of volume against the Jets probably makes him a high-end RB2. We did get to see him show off some pass-catching ability last week (5-31 on 6 targets), giving him a higher floor in PPR leagues than previously expected.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 12: vs. Car.): Jefferson posted another strong outing in week 11 with 84 yards and a touchdown, and this week may get to play without Adam Thielen on the field. Thielen tested positive for Covid-19 early in the week, and while there is still a chance it was a false positive, there’s no guarantee he’s able to play on Sunday at this point. The concern with any Viking pass catchers is always that they could have so much success running the ball that there isn’t a lot of passing volume. Cousins has thrown the ball 25 or fewer times in 4 separate games this year, but we’ve seen Jefferson clear 60 yards in two of those 4 games already, and those concerns are pretty much nonexistent if he’s not sharing targets with Thielen. The Panthers are in the bottom-12 of the league in pass defense DVOA, and I’d bank on the rookie’s upside again. I’d view him as a WR1 if Thielen is out, and a WR2 if he plays.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 12: @NYJ): Despite his week 11 benching, Tua is expected to be under center again in week 12. The matchup this week is much more forgiving. The Jets rank dead last in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 4^th-most QB points per game. Tua has been a little bit up-and-down so far this season, but I would expect this to be an ‘up’ week. We haven’t seen Tagovailoa show off a top-10 QB ceiling just yet, but he should be a quality QB2 this week for those of you in superflex and 2-QB formats assuming he can mentally shake off the benching.

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): Taylor had a bit of a resurgence last Sunday, playing 56% of the offensive snaps and handling 26 of the team’s 40 running back touches (65%). It was the second-highest touch number of the season for JT, and his highest snap share since before the team’s week 7 bye. The million-dollar question is – does it carry forward? Will Taylor continue to lead this backfield? I think the answer is yes, at least for this week. The Colts’ backfield is a fluid situation, but I think Taylor has earned another week as the lead back. The matchup could be a little bit of a concern despite the Titans allowing the 7^th-most RB points per game. This is the same defense that held Taylor to 12 yards on 7 rushes just a couple of weeks ago, and the backs they’ve had the most trouble with have been the smaller and more agile backs. The 5 best running back fantasy performances they’ve allowed this year came from Dalvin Cook, Nyheim Hines, Giovani Bernard, JK Dobbins, and James Robinson. None of that group is all that similar to Taylor stylistically. Despite that, I expect Taylor to get a dozen or more touches this week and get the chance to prove that last week’s bounce-back wasn’t a fluke. Hines will be involved again, but I think Taylor will be a borderline RB2 in this one and keep Jordan Wilkins at bay.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 12: @TB): CEH posted his best game in weeks last Sunday, but playing against the Raiders was a predictable smash spot for the rookie. This week’s matchup with the Bucs should be much tougher. Tampa allows the 4^th fewest RB points per game and ranks 1^st in run defense DVOA. There will still be a decent amount of rushing work for Clyde, but the saving grace for Edwards-Helaire is that Tampa has allowed more running back receptions than any team in the league, and the rookie has pulled in 3+ catches in 7 of the last 9 games. Tampa boasts one of the best secondaries in the league, so I think you’ll see more of CEH catching the football out of the backfield than we’re used to. He should finish the week as a solid RB2 in PPR leagues, but more of a flex play in non-PPR formats.

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 12: vs. LAC): We’ve now seen Moss out-snap Devin Singletary for 3 weeks running, and he’s out-touched him 19-10 in the last two weeks. We haven’t seen big yardage totals out of either back most weeks, but Moss has found the end zone 3 times in the last 3 games while Singletary hasn’t scored in that span. Both backs ran well against New England totaling over 80 rushing yards each in that contest, but the duo has combined for just 115 scrimmage yards in the last two games. The Chargers allow the 10^th-most RB points per game but allow the 16^th-most scrimmage yards to the position, so getting back on track with the yardage may not be in the offing. Moss will need to get into the end zone to be worth playing this week. The Chargers might be willing to oblige. They’ve coughed up 7 running back rushing scores in the last 5 games.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 12: vs. Bal.): It was another productive day for Claypool last Sunday, posting 4-59-1 on 8 targets in a blowout win over the Jaguars. It was his 4^th consecutive game with 8+ targets and 50+ yards, and he’s scored 4 touchdowns in those games as well. It appears that James Washington has eaten into Claypool’s snap share a bit in each of the last two weeks, but that doesn’t really concern me. Claypool continues to be a featured part of the offense. What concerns me this week is the matchup with Baltimore. The Ravens’ secondary has gotten healthy, so that means a tough matchup for all 3 Pittsburgh receivers. Big Ben threw for just 182 yards in the first meeting with the Ravens, and only JuJu Smith-Schuster reached 50 receiving yards on the team. Ben threw into the coverage of one of those top three corners (Jimmy Smith, Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters) 18 times in that game, and completed just 10 of those throws for 63 yards. Claypool still has his usual upside in this one, but it will probably be more of a floor game. I would treat him as a WR3 this week.

WR Michael Pittman Jr., IND (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): Pittman may be in the process of dethroning TY Hilton as the Colts’ WR1. He’s played 80%+ of the snaps in 3 straight contests and averaged 6 targets and 81 scrimmage yards per game in that span. He also scored his first TD of the season last weekend. No other Indy WR has played more than 67% of the snaps in either of the last 2 weeks. Tennessee is an opponent to target for wide receivers. They rank 25^th in pass-defense DVOA and have allowed the 6^th-most WR points per game. With that snap share and this matchup, Pittman should be a solid WR3 option this week in most formats.

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. NO): Jeudy had a bit of a down game in week 11, totaling just 3 catches for 37 yards, but he was still targeted 8 times in the contest. It was the 4^th straight game he’s seen at least 8 targets, and that kind of volume will keep him in consideration for a WR3 spot most weeks. This week he faces a Saints defense that ranks an impressive 5^th in pass defense DVOA, but has allowed the 14^th-most WR points per game, and the receivers they’ve been most vulnerable to play on the perimeter. They’ve allowed 6 different receivers to tally 15 fantasy points against them this season, and all of them play primarily on the outside. If Jeudy is targeted 8+ times again this week (and I think he will be), there is a great chance of him getting back up to 60+ yards and finishing as a useful fantasy starter.

WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): If there was ever a golden opportunity for a blowup game from Reagor, this is it. Carson Wentz has been struggling to get himself right, but Reagor has been a full-time player and seen at least 5 targets and 3 catches in each game since his return, and this week he gets the matchup of all matchups for wide receivers. The Seahawks have given up by far the most WR points per game. The defense right behind them in that category, the Cowboys, are closer in average points allowed to the 13^th-ranked Raiders than they are to Seattle. Wentz’s poor play keeps me from getting too optimistic here, but there is a big ceiling if the Eagles can get their passing game just a little more on-track. I’d treat Reagor like a WR4 with a big upside. His floor is probably in the ballpark of 4 catches for 40 yards.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 12: @LAR): The situation for Aiyuk this week remains in flux as of Wednesday. He was placed on the Covid list for the 2^nd time this season early in the week, but it was just as a close contact and he may still get cleared. Teammate Deebo Samuel returned to practice this week and may also suit up on Sunday, but could be a game-time decision. If Aiyuk plays and Samuel is out, we know he’ll see enough volume to be in play as a WR3. He’d have the unfortunate circumstance of matching up with Jalen Ramsey, one of the truly elite cover corners in the league, to take away any real ceiling he’d have, but he’d have volume. If Deebo and Aiyuk both play, Samuel would more likely be the receiver chased around by Ramsey, which could free up Aiyuk for a productive day on less volume. In either case, he’s still facing the defense that allows the fewest WR points per game. With the 49ers playing in the late afternoon Sunday, I’d probably look for another option this week. If you’re planning on playing Aiyuk, make sure you have a backup plan that plays in the late afternoon or later in case Aiyuk ends up inactive.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 12: vs. Was.): Lamb made one of the catches of the week last Sunday against the Vikings, contorting his body on his way to the ground in the end zone. CeeDee has done an admirable job of keeping himself fantasy viable despite a revolving door at QB since Dak Prescott went down. He’s finished with 13+ PPR points in 3 of the 5 games since Dak was injured. This week’s matchup is a tough one though. Washington allows 2^nd-fewest WR points per game and held Lamb to zero catches on 5 targets in the first meeting between the two teams. I wouldn’t count on Lamb being blanked again, but I also think it will be an uphill fight to get to 13 PPR points in this one. I’d probably look for other options unless you have to play Lamb, and I wouldn’t target him in Thanksgiving DFS lineups.  

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 12: vs. NYG): Higgins has several factors working against him this week. The Bengals will be without Joe Burrow after he was knocked out for the season last week, and instead, it will be former Bronco Brandon Allen under center. There’s also a chance he is going to spend most of his day tangling with James Bradberry, who has shown himself to be a true shutdown corner this year. The Giants have given up some receiver production, allowing the 15^th-most WR points per game, but the guy matching up with Bradberry usually isn’t putting up much of it. There are some glimmers of hope for Higgins. It’s possible the Bengals could move him around to try and get him away from Bradberry at times since this might not be a true shadow situation. Also, if you look at Brandon Allen’s performances in his 3 starts last year, you see a willingness to force the ball to his #1 WR. Allen targeted Courtland Sutton at least 8 times in all 3 of his starts last season. If that volume finds its way to Higgins this week, he could wind up with a respectable game even in the tough matchup. Just know that the ceiling probably isn’t going to be there this week, and you’re just hoping that he manages to put up 10 PPR points if you play him.

Rookies to Sit:

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 12: vs. SF): Akers did find the end zone for the first time on Monday night, but don’t be fooled into thinking it makes him fantasy viable yet. He was still a distant 3^rd in snap share behind Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown in the game, and he only posted 19 scrimmage yards on 6 touches. The 49ers allow the 7^th-fewest RB points per game, and Akers is third in line among the guys trying to score those points against them. I’d look elsewhere if desperate at RB this week.

RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 12: @Buf.): With Troymaine Pope back from his concussion, Kelley was limited to a season-low 11 offensive snaps last week. Kalen Ballage has established himself as the clear lead back with Pope and Kelley splitting the work that’s leftover, at least until Austin Ekeler returns. Considering that Ekeler’s return is probably coming within the next week or 2, there’s no reason to hold on to Kelley in season-long leagues at this point.

RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 12: vs. Bal.): You likely don’t need me to tell you to avoid McFarland this week, but he’s played a total of just 19 offensive snaps in the last 4 games he’s been active for. Baltimore is a tough matchup for running backs, ranking 4^th in run defense DVOA, but it’s even tougher to produce against that defense if you aren’t getting onto the field.

WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 12: vs. Mia.): Mims has been solid since getting healthy, drawing an average of 6.5 targets per game, and many of them downfield. He’s posted 217 yards on 13 catches over the 4 games he’s played, but the bulk of that production has come with Joe Flacco at QB. Sam Darnold has returned to practice this week and may start on Sunday. If Darnold starts, I’d expect him to have tunnel vision for Jamison Crowder. Crowder has been targeted at least 10 times in each game he played with Darnold this season and just 5 total targets in the last two games with Flacco at QB. He also draws the easiest CB matchup this week. While Mims and Breshad Perrriman deal with Xavien Howard and Byron Jones on the outside, Crowder gets to tangle with Nik Needham in the slot, who he should have no problem with. The Dolphins rank 11^th in pass defense DVOA, so this isn’t an easy matchup to begin with. I’d give Mims a bit of a bump if it’s Flacco at QB again, but if it’s Darnold as expected I would lean against playing Mims.

WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. NO): Drew Lock’s injury and the positive game script may have had a negative impact on Hamler’s playing time in week 11. The Broncos leaned on the running game and played a lot more 2-tight end sets against Miami than we typically see from them. Some of that may have been to protect Lock, who has been dealing with a rib injury, but more likely it was the result of a positive game script. Denver didn’t lead much in the 3 games prior to the tilt with the Dolphins but led for nearly 3 full quarters last Sunday. That run-heavy game script limited Hamler to just 58% of the offensive snaps. He did see 6 targets and turned them into 4 catches for 35 yards, but he had been targeted 10 times in each of the two games before that. The Broncos could go back to playing from behind this week, but I’m not sure it will result in a boost in production for Hamler. New Orleans has allowed the 14^th-most WR points per game, but they have been good at limiting slot production. Of the 13 wide receivers who have put up 10 fantasy points or more against the Saints, only 3 of them play primarily in the slot, and none of those 3 were among the 6 receivers that reached 15 points against them. Hamler is best avoided this week.

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 12: vs. Cle.): Shenault has missed the last two games with an injury, and now he’s in line to come back to a game with Mike Glennon at QB. Throughout his career, Glennon has heavily targeted tight ends and big outside receivers like Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans. Almost a quarter of his career targets were aimed at V-Jax. I’d expect DJ Chark to be the most useable receiver in this offense while Glennon is under center, but even he would be tough to trust. Volume from a bad QB doesn’t always lead to fantasy production. The Browns are a decent matchup. They allow the 11^th-most WR points per game and will be without their top CB Denzel Ward, but Glennon may render that a moot point. Keep Shenault sidelined this week.

WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 12: @Atl.): Is this the week that Ruggs finally has a blowup game again? It could be. The Falcons have allowed a league-high 47 pass plays of 20+ yards on the year, and the Seahawks are the only other team to give up 40 or more of them so far, but I wouldn’t count on a strong day from Ruggs. He’s got just 67 scrimmage yards on 9 touches over his last 4 games and played under 60% of the snaps last week for the first time all season (in games he’s been active for). He’s got a little more upside than usual in this game, but I wouldn’t take the chance. He’s a little pricier than I’d like in DFS where his price tag is $1,300 above the minimum on DraftKings. I also wouldn’t go near Bryan Edwards in any lineups after he played just 9 snaps last weekend in his 3^rd game since returning to the field.

WR Austin Mack, NYG (Wk. 12: @Cin.): I was tempted to list Mack as a sleeper this week but can’t really imagine where it’s feasible to play him. Most of his value comes from the volatility of the relationship between the Giants and Golden Tate. Mack was the beneficiary in week 9 when Tate was benched for complaining about his usage, serving as the team’s WR3 and posting a 4-72 line on 5 targets. The interesting thing was that Mack didn’t go completely to the bench in week 10 when Tate was re-inserted. Instead, the two split the WR3 role. Mack wasn’t heavily utilized, catching his only target for just 9 yards in that game, but this week’s matchup is an interesting one if Mack continues to see time on the field. The Bengals allow the 9^th-most WR points per game and rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA on throws to ancillary wide receivers (not the team’s WR1 or 2). If Mack does see some time on the field again this week, he could potentially make the most of the opportunity. That opportunity would probably be just 3 or 4 targets though.

WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 12: vs. Hou.): This is a week where there should be some sneaky upside for Cephus, but I’m not buying that he’ll make good on it. The Lions will be without Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola on Thursday, but that was also the case last Sunday and Quintez played his lowest snap total of the 3 games that Golladay has missed. The signing of Mohamed Sanu has Cephus splitting the WR3 role behind Marvin Jones & Marvin Hall. Houston is a pretty good matchup, allowing the 10^th-most WR points per game, but Cephus hasn’t been targeted more than twice in a game since week 2. I wouldn’t consider playing him as anything more than a cheap dart throw in a Thanksgiving slate DFS tournament.

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 12: vs. LAC): Davis’s playing time has been pretty steady this year. He’s been on the field for more than 30 offensive snaps in all but one game on the season, but his production has been anything but steady. He’s topped 9 PPR points 4 different times this year…and come up short of 2 points 3 different times. I wouldn’t bank on this being a week where he tops 9 again. The Chargers rank 6^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to ancillary wide receivers. This isn’t a week to roll the dice on Davis being productive.

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 12: @Jax): Since his breakout game against the Bengals in week 7 where he scored a game-winning touchdown, DPJ has played an average of just 9 snaps per game and seen 2 total targets across 3 games. He doesn’t play enough to warrant consideration even in a plus matchup like this one.

WR Marquez Callaway, NO (Wk. 12: @Den.): Now that Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are back to health, Callaway has been on the field for just 14 snaps in the last 2 weeks. With Taysom Hill at QB, there isn’t enough passing volume to justify considering any pass-catchers on this team outside of Thomas and Sanders. Hill threw just 23 times in his first start, and 17 of those throws targeted the top 2 receivers. Brees was averaging nearly 36 attempts per game in the 8 full games he played.

WR Van Jefferson, LAR (Wk. 12: vs. SF): Jefferson did score a touchdown last Monday, but like with his teammate Akers, don’t be fooled into thinking his role is growing. He was on the field for just 4 of the team’s 72 offensive snaps and was targeted just the one time. He’s still a distant 4^th on this WR depth chart.

TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 12: @GB): The playing time has been increasing for Kmet, but the fantasy production has not. Kmet played more snaps than Jimmy Graham in week 10 before the last week’s bye, but he turned that into just 1 catch for 7 yards, and I wouldn’t expect him to continue playing more than Graham going forward. It was likely a product of a game plan that called for better blocking tight ends in front of the backup running backs since David Montgomery was sidelined. Green Bay allows the 4^th-fewest tight end points per game, and if any Bear tight end is going to put up production against them my money is on Graham.

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 12: @Jax.): Bryant went without a target last Sunday for the 2^nd straight game since Austin Hooper’s return to the lineup. The weather has played a role with both games being played in downpour conditions, but it’s never a good sign to put up back-to-back goose eggs. We also saw David Njoku play over 50% of the offensive snaps in a game with Austin Hooper on the field for the first time all season. The Jaguars do allow the 4^th-most points per game to tight ends, so I doubt Bryant gets completely skunked again, but if Njoku is more involved the rookie has even less upside than usual. Bryant has had more than one catch just once in a game that Hooper played.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): Carson Wentz’s play is starting to make it difficult for the Eagles to keep running him out there. Sitting at 3-6-1, it’s hard to believe they’d be in the playoffs if the season ended today, but they may start looking for a spark if they want to stay in that position. Hurts could get the call eventually, and his running ability would give him instant upside even if he isn’t very productive as a passer. Hurts made strides throwing the ball in his last year in college after transferring to Oklahoma, but obviously, there is a difference between Big 12 defenses and NFL defenses. He had 3 separate college seasons with over 850 rushing yards, including nearly 1,300 yards and 20 TDs on the ground in 14 games as a senior. We all know that running QBs can be a cheat code in fantasy. If you have the bench space in a 2-QB league, especially a dynasty league, it would make some sense to stash the Eagles’ rookie QB.

RB Malcolm Perry, MIA (Wk. 12: @NYJ): Perry has been quietly becoming more involved in the Dolphins’ offense in recent weeks, playing regularly at wide receiver since Preston Williams went down a few weeks ago. Perry saw season-highs of 5 targets and a 78% snap share in week 11. If he’s on the field a similar amount this week, he’ll have some upside against a Jets’ defense that allows the 5^th-most WR points per game. Perry has RB eligibility, so if you’re hard-pressed for a running back in a deeper PPR league, Perry could fit that bill this week, and he’s an interesting stash in those same deep PPR leagues in case his role grows going forward. Perry was an option QB at Navy, running for over 2,000 yards and throwing for over 1,000 as a senior, so there may be some trick play potential here as well. It’s normally a good sign for a player learning a new position to get on the field this much as a rookie.

RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 12: @Phi.): Dallas will likely return to the bench this week as Chris Carson is expected to return on Monday in Philly, but Dallas does intrigue me for the Monday night showdown slate DFS tournaments. Backup Carlos Hyde was splitting the backup work with Travis Homer in the early part of the season when Chris Carson was healthy and even spent a couple of weeks as a healthy scratch. In recent weeks, Dallas has sort of moved into Homer’s 3^rd-down specialist role, and he may get the opportunity to spell Carson a bit, especially if the Seahawks decide not to overwork Carson in his first game back. The Eagles rank 30^th in pass defense DVOA on throws that target the running backs, so there is some sneaky upside if Dallas plays more than expected.

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 12: @GB): It’ll be an interesting week for the Bears with Mitch Trubisky back at quarterback. He was inefficient early in the year, leading to his benching, but the change back likely won’t be a big downgrade for Mooney. Trubisky targeted Mooney 6 times in the first two weeks of the season, when he was still behind Ted Ginn on the depth chart, and connected with him for one of the two TDs the rookie has scored. This week, I’d expect Jaire Alexander to shadow Allen Robinson, which could open things up for Mooney. Alexander has the highest coverage grade of any cornerback from Pro Football Focus this season, and the Packers rank 27^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to a team’s WR2. Chicago is an 8.5-point underdog, so they’re likely to be playing from behind and throwing. If Trubisky provides any kind of spark at all, I’d expect a surprisingly good showing from Mooney.

WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. @Pit.): The Ravens will be without JK Dobbins and Mark Ingram this week, and Duvernay is a track star who played running back in high school before converting to wide receiver in college. He lost snaps at wide receiver last week with Dez Bryant activated, but I’d expect Baltimore to get creative this week in trying to get the ball into the explosive rookie’s hands. The Steelers rank 1^st in the league in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve still managed to give up the 16^th-most WR points per game. I don’t think the Ravens feel entirely comfortable going into the week with just Gus Edwards and Justice Hill at running back, and I’d look for them to manufacture a few extra touches for Duvernay. I’m not sure what format you’d be able to play him in, but don’t be surprised if he leaves the week with 60+ scrimmage yards.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to check the active/inactive updates before kickoff, and make sure you don’t start a sidelined player. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on Twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve finally arrived at the final week of the fantasy regular season for most leagues. It’s been a long, strange trip this season, but hopefully you’ve made it to this point with a postseason berth secured, or at least a chance to earn one this week. We had our first Wednesday Afternoon Football in recent memory a couple days ago, and week 13 brings us two Monday games, a Tuesday night game, and two of the latest byes we’ve seen in years (Tampa & Carolina). If the Vegas betting lines are on point, it’s also going to have a LOT of uneven scores. 7 of the week’s 15 games have point spreads of more than 6 points. A week with a lot of lopsided games can be tricky to navigate when setting fantasy lineups, but there should be some exploitable matchups as a result. Which rookies does that apply to? Let’s take a look and find out…

(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under same header at same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)

Rookies to Start:

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 13: @Min.): You already know what to do with Robinson. You can’t sit him. He’s given rock solid production week in and week out, and there is nothing about the matchup this week to scare you off of that. In Mike Glennon’s first start Robinson played all but one snap, and he was a popular passing game option as well with 6 targets and 5 catches. Minnesota ranks a middling 16^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, and they’ve given up over 100 rushing yards in 4 of their past 5 games. For the season, Robinson has 80% of the Jaguars team rushing yards. He should be safe for 70+ rushing yards and a handful of catches once again, and he’s always a threat to put the ball in the end zone.

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 13: @Hou.): Taylor’s trip to the COVID/reserve list came at a pretty inopportune time as he just seemed to be getting back on track. I don’t think the week off is going to derail his momentum. He seems to have separated himself from Jordan Wilkins again for the early down work, and this week’s matchup is a great one for him. The Texans allow the 2^nd-most RB points per game, but more importantly they allow the most running back rushing yards in the league. Nyheim Hines will of course mix in a fair amount as usual, but I’m going to make a bold claim that Taylor runs for over 100 yards and finds the end zone in this one. I think he’ll run with a little extra juice after the week off.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 13: vs. Jax.): This week’s attack could feature a heavy dose of Dalvin Cook for Minnesota as they’re favored to win by 10 points, but you know the kind of upside that Jefferson brings to the table. Jacksonville boasts one of the worst secondaries in the league. They rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA and allow the 5^th-most WR points per game. Jefferson has been more consistent in recent weeks after having some boom-or-bust performances in the early part of the season. He’s averaged 5 catches for 89 yards on 8 targets over the past 4 games, and found the end zone 3 times in that span. The potential limited volume in an easy win this week makes him more of a WR2 than a WR1 against the Jags.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Was.): Claypool gets a difficult matchup on paper, but his usage has been very reliable over the past few weeks and Washington has been vulnerable to big plays, an area where Claypool has had success this year. The Football Team has given up more 40+ yard completions this year (9) than every team in the league except the Chargers (10). Pittsburgh hasn’t made a living on the deep ball this year, with only 8 completions of 30+ yards on the season, but 5 of those 8 went to Claypool. Washington has allowed the 2^nd fewest WR points per game and ranks 3^rd in pass defense DVOA, but Claypool has had 8+ targets in each of the last 5 games and his splash play prowess gives him additional upside in this one. The absence of James Conner should result in even more passing volume for this offense despite a likely positive game script. Roethlisberger attempted a season-high 51 passes last week with Conner sidelined. Claypool’s got a safe floor and a high ceiling this week even though it looks like a tough spot. Fire him up as a WR2 this Monday.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 13: vs. NE): This week isn’t a great one to bet on a ceiling game out of Herbert. The Patriots have struggled against the pass on paper, ranking 30^th in pass defense DVOA, but they also slow the game down when they can and limit play volume on the other side. New England ranks 29^th in pace in the first half of games (seconds per offensive play run), and 31^st in pace when they have a lead. They’ve allowed fewer than 250 passing yards in 6 of their 11 games, and 2 or fewer total TDs to the opposing QB in 8 of 11. They also haven’t allowed any QB they’ve faced to throw 35 or more pass attempts. Herbert has thrown the ball 40 or more times in 6 of his 10 starts. The rookie should be a solid high-end QB2 and passable low-end QB1 this week, but it’s not crazy to consider sitting him this week in 1-QB leagues if you have a replacement you really like this weekend. Lower volume could cap his upside.

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 13: vs. Cin.): Reports out of Miami on Saturday make it sound like Tua is trending toward starting this week, and he should be a reasonable QB2 if that proves to be the case on Sunday. The last time we saw Tua in action, he was lifted for Ryan Fitzpatrick due to a shaky performance against the Broncos when he was sacked 6 times. The Bengals aren’t anywhere near as daunting of a defense. They rank just 26^th in pass defense DVOA and have just 13 sacks total in 11 games this season. Cincy has limited fantasy production out of Alex Smith and the combo of Daniel Jones & Colt McCoy over the last two weeks, but had allowed 2+ total TDs to 8 QBs in a row before those two games. Tua also has the benefit of a healthy Myles Gaskin at running back. I expect a solid performance in a plus matchup.

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 13: vs. Dal.): Dobbins will return from the COVID list this week, and it comes at just the right time. Dallas is burnable opponent, ranking 29^th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 6^th-most RB points per game. We saw on Wednesday how uninspiring a healthy dose of Gus Edwards can be (10 yards and a TD on 9 carries vs. Pittsburgh). The Ravens get both Dobbins and Mark Ingram back this week, but in the last two games both were healthy for, Dobbins saw 20 carries and 4 targets to Ingram’s 7 and 2. The game script should be very positive in this game assuming Lamar Jackson is able to play. Baltimore was favored by a TD with Lamar’s status still uncertain. I’d look for 15 or so touches from Dobbins this week, and a strong likelihood he finishes the week as an RB2.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 13: vs. Den.): Edwards-Helaire’s fantasy production has been wildly uneven since the team signed Le’Veon Bell. He’s put up fantasy point totals of 12.8, 4.6, 10.9, 20.2, and 4.4 in the 5 games with Bell active. He did, however, play his highest snap share yet with Bell on the roster in week 12, and he’s found the end zone 4 times in those last 5 games. Denver is a defense that is easier to attack on the ground than through the air, especially since AJ Bouye returned from IR in week 7. The Broncos have allowed 18.5 or more QB points in 8 games this year. Bouye was inactive for 5 of them and left one of the other 3 with injury. Denver ranks just 19^th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 12^th-most RB points per game. There is risk with CEH every week, but this is a week that I would bet on him returning RB2 value. Make sure he suits up before pulling the trigger. He was questionable with an illness as of Saturday.

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 13: @Pit.): Gibson has been on fire lately, finishing as a top-8 fantasy back in 4 of his last 5 games (and the RB17 in the other). He found the end zone 8 times in those 5 games, with at least 1 score in each, but I’m here to dump a little cold water on the rookie this week. Gibson’s hot streak has coincided with an easier stretch of the schedule where Washington has played from ahead regularly. 3 of their 4 wins on the season came during the stretch, and Gibson still hasn’t rushed for more than 55 yards in a team loss. His passing game usage has kept him fantasy viable in most of his down weeks, but he still gives way to JD McKissic on a lot of 3^rd downs when they’re trailing. In the team’s 7 losses, Gibson averages playing just 46% of the snaps gaining just 66 scrimmage yards, and Washington is an 8-point underdog against the Steelers this week. The Steelers are one of the toughest RB matchups in the league. They allow the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game and rank 3^rd in run defense DVOA. They also should limit Gibson’s receiving output. No team in the league allows fewer RB catches and receiving yards than the Steelers do. I know it would be hard to sit Gibson this week given the output you’ve gotten from him recently, but if he doesn’t find the end zone for the 6^th straight game, you may be cursing his name Monday.

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 13: @Chi.): Keep an eye on the health updates with Swift. Editor's Note: Swift is inactive for Week 13. Obviously it’ll be tough to sit him if he plays, but there were reports that his snaps would be limited if he’s able to go and he was downgraded to doubtful on Saturday. The matchup isn’t a great one with the Bears ranking 5^th in run defense DVOA, but they do allow the 8^th-most RB rushing yards per game. Swift has topped 95 scrimmage yards in 3 of his past 5 games and was heavily involved in the passing game with at least 4 targets each week in that span. I wouldn’t expect him to be nearly as involved this week if he is able to play. I’d view him more as a desperation flex, and would probably lean against playing him if he’s active.

WR Michael Pittman Jr., IND (Wk. 13: @Hou.): Pittman has come into his own as the Colts’ WR1 in recent weeks, averaging nearly 7 targets per game in his last 4, and this week faces a defense that allows the 10^th-most WR points per game. He had a bit of a down game last week with just 2 catches for 28 yards against the Titans, but he was targeted 9 times in that game. The volume should be there again this week. Phillip Rivers has thrown the ball 36 or more times in 5 of his last 6 games, and Pittman gets the best opportunity to take advantage of this defense against Phillip Gaines thanks to Bradley Roby’s PED suspension. Gaines has allowed a team-worst 18.3 yards per completion on throws into his coverage, and allowed a 60% completion rate. Roby was injured earlier this year 3 snaps into a game against Green Bay in week 7 and missed the following game as well. The opposing WR1s in those two games were Davante Adams (13-196-2) and DJ Chark (7-146-1). I’m not saying Pittman is going to have that kind of day, but I’d be shocked if he has another 2-28 kind of performance. He’s a great value in DFS tournaments at just $4,900 on DraftKings, and a WR3 with big upside this week.

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 13: @KC): Jeudy had a predictably terrible fantasy day last week with zero catches with practice squad wide receiver Kendall Hinton throwing the ball. Hinton completed just one pass all day. Drew Lock should be back under center in this one, and that should be a big help to all of the receiving weapons. Keep an eye on the injury report as Jeudy is questionable for this game, but if he plays, he’s got a healthy amount of upside. The entire passing game struggled in the first meeting with Kansas City, including Jeudy who posted 2 catches for 20 yards on 4 targets. In the 4 games since that meeting (not including last week), Jeudy has averaged 10 targets and 76 receiving yards per week. He gets a tough individual matchup this week with Bashaud Breeland, but the Broncos should be throwing a lot this week and that volume will keep Jeudy in play as an upside WR3 if he’s able to take the field.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 13: vs. Buf.): Aiyuk should return from his stint on the COVID/reserve list this week, and he was performing well before being placed on it. The rookie had topped 70 receiving yards in each of the last 3 games he played in, but Deebo Samuel wasn’t active for any of them. His return should make the target breakdown tougher to predict with both active. Samuel commanded 13 targets in an upset win last weekend while Aiyuk was out, and having the duo out there together this week will probably limit the ceiling for each. The Bills have a formidable secondary with Levi Wallace and Tre’Davious White each allowing right around 8 yards per target. Neither corner is allowing even 3 yards after catch per completion into their coverage. Aiyuk averages 5 yards after catch per reception. Samuel averages 13. Kyle Shanahan is creative enough that he’ll be able to scheme the ball to these guys in positions to make plays, but only Seattle has managed to get two receivers to 10 fantasy points against Buffalo in the Bills’ last 8 games. If only one 49er gets to 10, there is a chance it’s Aiyuk who has the solid game, but my money would be on Samuel after what we saw from him last week. Aiyuk is on the flex radar Sunday.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 13: @Bal.): Lamb should be a floor flex play once again this week in another tough matchup. He’ll draw coverage from Marlon Humphrey in the slot. Humphrey has allowed just 6.2 yards per target on throws into his coverage, and zero touchdowns. The Cowboys are probably going to play from behind and will have to throw, and Lamb has 4 receptions in each of his last 4 games. He’s got the raw talent to have a big game unexpectedly, but if you’re playing him you just hope he gets in the end zone or clears 10 PPR points.

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 13: @Mia.): Higgins did manage to post a 5-44-1 line on 5 targets in Brandon Allen’s first start last weekend, but that’s pretty much what a successful week is going to look like for him with Burrow out. Tyler Boyd did lead the Bengals in targets last week and he gets the best individual matchup of the Cincy receivers this week, facing Nik Needham in the slot. Higgins will match up mostly with Xavien Howard, who has been tough but given up some big plays. He’s allowed just a 46% completion rate into his coverage, but has given up 15 yards per completion and 3 touchdowns on the year. Higgins is always a threat to find the end zone, and that keeps him in the flex discussion, but you’ll probably need him to score to provide a useful fantasy day.

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 13: vs. Det.): Mooney and Mitch Trubisky seemed to have a connection early in the year even with Mooney playing limited snaps, and Trubisky continued to look his way in his return to the starting QB role. In the first two weeks of the season, Mooney turned 6 Trubisky targets into 6 catches for 74 yards and a TD. The efficiency wasn’t nearly as high last week against Green Bay, but Trubisky threw Mooney’s way 9 times in the loss. It resulted in 3 catches for 34 yards. The game script should be a bit more positive this week for Chicago, so passing volume could be down, but against Detroit’s rag-tag secondary the efficiency should be better. The Lions rank just 28^th in pass defense DVOA, and allow the 9^th-most WR points per game. Mooney has been a dicey flex option most weeks, only reaching 60 receiving yards in 1 game this year, so he’s more of a desperation option this week, but I do like his chances of having one of his better games of the year.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (Wk. 13: @GB): There was a lot of talk of Hurts getting to play a bit more last week with the way Carson Wentz has been struggling, but that didn’t really come to fruition on Monday night with Hurts playing just 2 snaps. He did make a crisp throw to Alshon Jeffery on one of those snaps, but it looks like he’ll have to supplant Wentz as the starter to have any fantasy value. For his part, Wentz didn’t really do anything to inspire confidence in his ability to get the job done against the Seahawks, but Philly has so much invested in their QB that it would take an awful lot for them to bench him. Keep an eye on the situation, but for now Hurts is no more than a stash for 2-QB formats with more value in dynasty leagues than redraft.

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 13: @SF): The 49ers defense allows the 7^th-fewest RB points per game and has been getting healthier, and Moss is still splitting snaps with Devin Singletary. He’s been playing slightly more than his backfield counterpart, but he’s only reached 60% of the offensive snaps once all year and Cam Akers is the only running back to score 11+ fantasy points against the 49ers while playing less than 66% of the snaps. In fact, Frank Gore is the only non-Ram to run for more than 60 yards against San Francisco all year, and that was back in week 2. If Moss falls into the end zone in this one he’d return at least flex value, but I’d probably avoid making that bet. Josh Allen is as likely (actually more likely) to get the goal line rushing opportunities as Moss.

RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 13: vs. NE): The return of Austin Ekeler puts a pretty solid cap on Josh Kelley’s opportunity going forward. It was nice to see Kelley get into the end zone to vulture a TD from Ekeler last weekend, but it’s entirely possible that he goes to the bench for Kalen Ballage when Ballage gets healthy, which could happen as soon as this week. Kelley has played less than 30% of the offensive snaps in each of the last 3 weeks, and Ekeler and Ballage haven’t both been active at the same time in any of them. There is more chance of Kelley’s playing time going down than up if this backfield is healthy.

RB Anthony McFarland Jr., PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Was.): With James Conner out after testing positive for Covid-19, this seemed to be a golden opportunity for the Steelers to get McFarland more involved and see what the rookie can do. He did play his highest snap count of the year on Wednesday against the Ravens, but that was still just 19% of the offensive snaps and he ended the day with just 4 touches and 26 scrimmage yards. The Washington defense he faces this week allows fewer RB points per game than Baltimore. You can’t roll him out there in any leagues this week even though Conner is expected to be out again.

RB DeeJay Dalls, SEA (Wk. 13: vs. NYG): With Chris Carson back in action Dallas didn’t play a single offensive snap last week. I don’t foresee a big playing time spike this week that would result in him being a playable fantasy option. The Giants allow the 14^th-most RB points per game, but Dallas isn’t the one who will be scoring those points for Seattle.

RB Salvon Ahmed, MIA (Wk. 13: vs. Cin.): In case you missed the news Saturday, Ahmed is listed as doubtful and isn’t expected to play in this game. Even if he were surprisingly able to suit up, Myles Gaskin has been activated off injured reserve and will function as the lead back. Ahmed would only see change-of-pace work or garbage time work if he ends up active on Sunday.

WRs Laviska Shenault & Collin Johnson, JAX (Wk. 13: @Min.): Collin Johnson announced himself with some authority last weekend, posting 4-96-1 on a team-high 8 targets. We’ve seen throughout his career that Glennon likes big targets on the outside, and the 6’6” Johnson fits the bill. Unfortunately for him, the return of DJ Chark and Chris Conley this week will force him back to a backup role. The 80% snap share he played in week 12 was his highest of the season by nearly 50%. I would expect DJ Chark to be the guy Glennon looks to most often in week 13. Laviska Shenault has some upside in a plus matchup (the Vikings allow the 2^nd-most WR points per game), but Viska hasn’t been anything more than a floor flex play most of this season. He’s topped 50 scrimmage yards just 3 times all year and found the end zone just once. He’s not the kind of player you want to bet on having a big game in a week where you may need it most. I’d prefer both DJ Chark and Keelan Cole to Shenault this week.

WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 13: @KC): As I mentioned with Jerry Jeudy, there’s no reason to take anything away from last week’s game with Kendall Hinton at QB. Burn the tape and throw it away and pretend it never happened when looking at Denver pass catchers. Prior to last week Hamler had been putting up reasonable performances, but still comfortably behind Jeudy’s production. In the 3 games before facing the Saints, KJ totaled 14 catches for 160 yards and 1 rush for 15. Much like the rest of the Denver offense, Hamler wasn’t great in the first meeting with Kansas City as he posted just 2 catches for 24 yards on 3 targets and a rush for 10. I like his chances to exceed those numbers this time around, but he gets a tough individual matchup. Kansas City’s slot corner L’Jarius Sneed is allowing just 4.9 yards per target on throws into his coverage, and Hamler is unlikely to see as many targets as Jeudy or fellow teammate Tim Patrick. I’d leave Hamler benched this week unless Jeudy winds up inactive.

WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 13: @GB): Things are trending in the wrong direction for Reagor to be able to make a fantasy impact as a rookie. He was shaping up to have WR1 usage for this team for a few weeks there, playing 73, 88, and 93% of the offensive snaps in the three games prior to week 12, but last week he lost snap share to Alshon Jeffery. Reagor played just 61% of the snaps in week 12. The Eagles are also likely to get Zach Ertz back from IR this week, and that could siphon targets away from the rest of the passing game. Ertz was averaging 7.5 targets per game before going down with injury, and while he wasn’t particularly efficient with those targets, Carson Wentz still looks to him as a safety blanket. Reagor has been averaging about 6 targets per game and 31.5 receiving yards per game over the last 4 contests, and any volume coming away from that will make him pretty unusable for fantasy purposes. The opponent this week, Green Bay, allows the 12^th-fewest WR points per game, so it isn’t a plus matchup for Reagor. There’s a chance that getting Ertz back as an underneath weapon helps open up the deep passing game more and helps Reagor, but I’d rather see that before I trust it’s going to happen. The Eagles’ passing game as a whole has been a mess this year.

WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 13: vs. Dal.): I’ve tried to predict potential breakout games for Duvernay a couple times this year without much luck, so I’m not going to do that this week. Dallas is a great matchup for wide receivers, allowing the 3^rd-most points per game to the position. They’ve also been burned for big plays, allowing 8 catches of 40+ yards on the season (only Washington and the Chargers have allowed more), but Duvernay hasn’t been targeted more than 3 times in any game this year. The addition of Dez Bryant has resulted in more target competition for Duvernay, making his breakout game even more unlikely. Bryant has been targeted 7 times in the last two weeks. Duvernay has been active for all 11 games and has just 23 targets for the season.

WRs Henry Ruggs & Bryan Edwards, LV (Wk. 13: @NYJ): The Jets rank dead last in pass defense DVOA and allow the 6^th-most WR points per game, and you still can’t trust either of these rookie wide receivers to help your fantasy squad this week. Ruggs has reached double-digit fantasy points just once all year, and hasn’t seen more than 5 targets in any game. Is there a chance he hits a big play and has a good game? Sure, but if he doesn’t, I hope you enjoy your 2-25 on 4 targets line. Bryan Edwards played just 30% of the snaps last week in a blowout loss where the Raiders were throwing all game. He’s well behind Nelson Agholor and Ruggs for playing time right now.

WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 13: @Chi.): Kenny Golladay is on track to miss yet another game this week, but Danny Amendola seems to be on track to return. Golladay missed the first meeting with the Bears, a game where Cephus saw 10 targets come his way, but his role has pretty much evaporated since then. Quintez has been no more than the team’s part-time WR3 with Kenny out, and has seen exactly 2 targets in each of the last 4 games. He’ll need more volume than that to be useful, and you can’t count on him getting it this week.

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 13: @Ten.): This is a decent matchup for a tight end with the Titans allowing the 8^th-most TE points per game, but Bryant has been a non-factor as a receiver since Austin Hooper returned to the lineup. Bryant has just 1 catch on two targets over the last 3 games combined despite playing more than 55% of the offensive snaps in each game. He’s more of a run blocker than a receiving threat right now, and isn’t likely to help you this week in any formats.

TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 13: vs. Det.): Kmet has seen his snap share increase in 4 straight games – he even played 30 more offensive snaps than Jimmy Graham last week – but Graham is still the tight end seeing the targets and receiving yards. Kmet has just 3 catches for 17 yards on 7 targets over the last 4 games. Graham has posted 11-100-1 on 19 targets in that same span. The changing of the guard hasn’t happened yet, and Detroit allows the 9^th-fewest TE points per game.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 13: @Ari.): Akers hasn’t reached the point where he’s a good weekly fantasy option just yet, but he’s at least part of the rotation again. In weeks 5, 6 and 7, Akers played a total of 17 offensive snaps. Since then he’s averaged 17 per game, and his play has improved as Darrell Henderson’s has faded. Henderson has just 24 rushing yards on 18 carries in the last 2 weeks while Akers has 101 yards on 14 carries. He’s their only back that has given them any kind of spark in the running game in recent weeks, and it’s bound to lead to more opportunities for the rookie. It’s not great that 31% of his scrimmage yards from the past 4 weeks came from one play, but he’s trending in the right direction. It would take some serious balls to play him in a less than ideal matchup this week (Arizona allows the 12^th-fewest RB points per game, and this is still a 3-man committee backfield), but he shouldn’t be sitting out there on the waiver wire in most leagues. He remains available in 65% of ESPN leagues.

WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 13: vs. LV): Mims is currently one of the most overlooked weekly WR options in fantasy football. I get that the Jets are a terrible team, but there has been fantasy production to take advantage of here. Mims is available in 91% of ESPN fantasy leagues, and all he’s done since getting activated in week 7 is average 6.6 targets and 57 yards per game. In the past 3 games those numbers are at 7.7 and 66. He hasn’t found the end zone yet, but it’s coming. This week he gets a favorable matchup against struggling rookie corner Damon Arnette. Arnette has allowed a team-worst 75% completion percentage on throws into his coverage, and while he hasn’t been tested deep very much, Mims has the wheels to burn him if the Jets test it out. Mims ran a 4.38 40-yard dash at the combine while Arnette ran 4.56. The Jets as usual should be playing from behind and throwing a bunch, and I like Mims’ chances of posting his best fantasy game of the season.

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 13: @SF): The 49ers are not an easy matchup for wide receivers, allowing the 8^th-fewest points per game to the position, but we saw again last week that Davis typically produces when John Brown is out of the lineup. Davis has caught for 50+ yards 4 times this season, and 3 of them came in the 4 games where Brown played less than 50% of the team’s offensive snaps (3 games Brown missed and one that he left early with injury). Davis has also played at least 95% of the offensive snaps in all 3 games Brown missed. Jason Verrett isn’t an easy matchup on the outside, but #1 receiver Stefon Diggs will be dealing with Richard Sherman on the other side. Davis isn’t much more than an upside dart throw in DFS tournaments or a deep league flex option, but 50+ yards is probably a reasonable expectation.

WR Isaiah Coulter, HOU (Wk. 13: vs. Ind.): Editor's Note: Coulter is inactive for this week's matchup. Coulter has been gifted a huge opportunity thanks to the positive PED test and suspension of Will Fuller this week. Coulter is expected to step into Fuller’s spot in the lineup at least until Randall Cobb returns from IR (it’s unclear how the lineup will look when Cobb returns since both Cobb and Keke Coutee are best suited to the slot), and any full time role with Deshaun Watson as your QB warrants a look from fantasy players. Coulter is a bit raw after playing at the FCS level for Rhode Island, but he has the tools and traits to develop into a decent NFL receiver. He’s got speed, running a 4.45 40-yard dash at the combine. That isn’t Will Fuller fast, but it’s fast enough. He also steps into an offense with a lot of passing volume, and one where most of the receiving volume goes to the wide receivers. The Texans are 5^th in the league in passing yards with Watson averaging 291 yards per game, and 70% of their receiving yards have gone to the receivers. With that situation, Coulter is worth stashing in deep leagues, but he shouldn’t be plugged in anywhere this week. His fantasy ceiling will only come if he’s able to replace Fuller’s deep threat role, and the Colts have allowed just 4 completions of 40+ yards all year. This isn’t a week to hope for a big play from Isaiah. He should be monitored though.

TE Adam Trautman, NO (Wk. 13: @Atl.): Trautman isn’t a name that most people know, but he’s actually led the Saints in tight end snaps in each of the past 3 games, likely because he’s a better run blocker than Jared Cook & Josh Hill and the team has been run-heavy with Taysom Hill at QB. There haven’t been a ton of targets for the rookie (he’s had one catch on one target in each of Hill’s two starts, including 1-19 against these Falcons), but matchups don’t get better for tight ends than this one. Atlanta allows a league-high thirteen TE points per game. I wouldn’t play him in season-long leagues, but he’s a decent dart throw for DFS tournaments. He’ll cost the minimum for normal DraftKings tournaments, and just $400 on the Showdown slate for the Saints-Falcons game.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. There are a lot of rookies with fluid injury situations this week, and COVID could strike a player at any time, so make sure to check the active/inactive updates before kickoff and make sure you don’t start a sidelined player. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s finally time for the fantasy playoffs. Hopefully you’ve survived this far and have a meaningful matchup this week, or even better a bye into week 15. The end of the fantasy regular season brought some big-time performances from the rookie crop. Henry Ruggs helped the Raiders avoid being the first team to fall to the Jets this season. Jonathan Taylor had a long touchdown catch where he was untouched, and then racked up 73 fourth quarter rushing yards to help the Colts salt the game away. We also saw Brandon Aiyuk put up a huge game on Monday night, and JK Dobbins follow suit on Tuesday. Jalen Hurts took over as the new QB in Philly, and Justin Jefferson found the end zone for the third straight week. It wasn’t all sunshine and roses for the rookie class though. Justin Herbert had the worst game of his young career in a shutout loss to New England. Standout running back Antonio Gibson left early on Monday with turf toe and will be out in week 14, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire was active on Sunday night, but was just the emergency back and didn’t play a single snap. It was a true nightmare scenario for people who played either of those backs. Which rookies will help you and which will hurt you in week 14? Let’s take a look and find out…

(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under same header at same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)

Rookies to Start:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): Herbert had a disastrous game last week against the Patriots. It was the first time all year he was held without a touchdown, the first time all year he was held below a 58% completion percentage (he completed 49%), and just the 2^nd time he’s thrown multiple interceptions in a game. If you made the playoffs with Herbert as your QB in spite of that performance, you shouldn’t be afraid to fire him back up this week. Throw away the tape from last week and trust that he will bounce back against the defense that allows the most QB fantasy points per game. Even including last week’s game, Herbert is averaging nearly 22 fantasy points per game and is the QB8 for the season. There should be plenty of volume for both offenses in this game, as both teams rank in the top-5 in the league in pace (fewest seconds per play run). I’d go into Sunday with confidence that Herbert will deliver 20+ points this week or at least close to it.

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): Robinson has proven that he is start-worthy every single week. He’s the RB4 on the year, has 70+ scrimmage yards in all but 1 game this season, and 10+ fantasy points in all but 2 games. He gets to face the defense allowing the 7^th-most RB points per game, a defense he roughed up for 19.5 points in week 2. You’ve likely gotten to this point *because* of James Robinson. You’ve got to continue to trust him in the playoffs if you have him.

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 14: @LV): If you trusted Jonathan Taylor last week you were handsomely rewarded with a 21-point performance, but his usage early in the game was still concerning. Taylor finished the game the highest snap share of the Colts’ backs (48%), but entering the 4^th quarter he had just 3 rushing attempts and 2 receptions. He was lucky enough that the Texans forgot to defend him on one of the receptions and he strolled 39 yards for a touchdown, but he didn’t see the ball much aside from that catch until the last quarter. He was dominant in the 4^th, piling up 70 rushing yards on 10 carries, but without that we would be wondering if he was back in the doghouse. I’m confident that there is no way the Colts’ coaching staff could watch that 4^th quarter and then go right back to the same usage pattern against another bad run defense this week. Taylor should be involved early and often in Vegas. The Raiders rank 31^st in the league in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, and allow the 4^th-most RB points per game. Despite the questionable usage, Taylor has seen 35 rushing attempts and 7 receptions in his last 2 games. His floor makes him a flex play this week, but I think this is more likely to be a ceiling week. He has high RB1 upside this week. He could be a steal at his $5,800 price tag on DraftKings.

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 14: vs. GB): Swift sounds likely to play this week, and if he does he should probably be in your lineup. There is a risk that he won’t play the kind of snap share he was seeing before his concussion, but the Packers allow the 3^rd-most RB points per game and a large chunk of that comes from receiving production. Green Bay has allowed the 2^nd-most RB receiving yards per game and the 8^th-most RB receptions. Swift is by far the best receiving back on the Lions’ roster. Game script should be negative for Detroit, so they’re likely to be throwing. The only teams to not get a running back to 12+ fantasy points against the Packers were the Lions in week 3 (Swift only played 6 snaps) and the Eagles’ broken offense last week. Check to make sure he’s active Sunday, but if he plays, Swift will likely finish as at least an RB2.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 14: @TB): In recent weeks it appears Jefferson has taken the next step and has gone from a volatile WR2 with some huge blowup games to a consistent weekly WR1. He’s now strung together 4 consecutive 15+ point games (only 2 games with 15+ in his first 8 games) and saw his two highest target totals of the season in the last two weeks. Tampa Bay has been a tough matchup against WRs for much of the season, but there have been some cracks in recent weeks. Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp both reached 130 yards against them in week 11, and Tyreek Hill caught for 200 against them in a single quarter in week 12. The Bucs have had an extra week to prepare for this game, but they’re likely to be without their #2 CB Jamel Dean in this game. Top corner Carlton Davis will probably be shadowing Adam Thielen, and if that’s the case Jefferson will most often match up with Sean Murphy-Bunting, who has allowed a 119 passer rating on 69 throws into his coverage. Don’t be afraid to fire up Jefferson as your WR1 again this week.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 14: vs. KC): It’s tough to know what to expect this week from Tua given that this isn’t an easy matchup for a QB and the offense will be a bit shorthanded, but those same factors could also lead to a pass-happy game plan for the ‘Phins. The Chiefs are favored by a touchdown, and the Dolphins are missing their top 3 running backs. The guys they do have available (DeAndre Washington & Patrick Laird) are both better suited to a 3^rd down pass catching role, so they may have some trouble establishing the run game. The Chiefs have allowed the 12-fewest QB points per game, but they’ve been shakier in recent weeks. KC has allowed 2 or more TD passes in 4 straight games, and 20+ fantasy points to the opposing QB in 3 of them. Tua set a new career-high with 39 pass attempts last week, and he could make a run at that number again. I’d view him as a lower-end QB2 with upside.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 14: @Mia.): Edwards-Helaire let down a lot of fantasy players last week when he was active on Sunday night but didn’t play a single snap. That’s not likely to happen again this week. CEH should be good to go for week 14, and this is a reasonable spot for a nice game for the rookie. The Dolphins are easier to run on than throw, ranking 24^th in run defense DVOA and 6^th in pass defense DVOA. The Chiefs are a team that can shred even the best pass defenses, but this is still a week where they would be smart to keep Clyde in the game plan. Le’Veon Bell didn’t look very explosive last week, and the Dolphins have allowed at least one running back to run for 65 yards or more in 4 of their last 5 games. In the only game they lost in that stretch, Denver had two different backs each reach 80 rushing yards. The Chiefs are a touchdown favorite in this one. CEH should have a good chance to return RB2 value this week even if he doesn’t find the end zone.

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Dobbins has been productive in recent weeks, with 70+ rushing yards and a TD the week before and the week after his stint on the COVID list, but he’s done that against bad run defenses (Tennessee and Dallas). He’s still sharing more of the running back load than I’d like and turning limited opportunities into production. He played less than 40% of the snaps against the Cowboys and touched the ball just 11 times. It’ll likely take more work than that to post a similarly productive day against the Browns. Cleveland allows the 9^th-fewest running back points per game. Dobbins did get in the end zone twice against these Browns in week 1 and he’s certainly the most explosive back in this backfield, but if you start him you’re hoping he continues to be productive on limited touches, and doing so in a tougher matchup. I’d view him as a flex play this week.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 14: vs. Was.): Aiyuk gets a tough matchup this week against a Washington team allowing the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game, and a tough individual matchup with Kendall Fuller, but he’s been productive in tough matchups before. The Football Team has given up long TD passes to Amari Cooper and James Washington in each of their last two games, and Aiyuk is pretty much the only downfield receiving threat the 49ers have. In the last 4 games he’s been active for, Aiyuk has averaged 10 targets and 94 yards per game and found the end zone in 3 of them. Even in this tougher matchup, he’s likely to be a solid WR3.

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 14: vs. Dal.): Higgins draws the best matchup he’s had since before the team’s bye in week 9. The ceiling has been capped with Brandon Allen at QB, but he’s still seen 13 targets in the last two weeks with Allen starting and Dallas allows the 4^th-most WR points per game. In their last 6 games, Dallas has allowed 11 wide receivers to reach double-digit fantasy points. Higgins should be a pretty safe bet for 10+ points, and this week will probably be about as good a chance as you’ll have to get him in the lineup the rest of the way.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 14: @Buf.): Claypool was surprisingly limited to just 31 snaps and 4 targets last week, losing playing time to James Washington. It was his first game with fewer than 8 targets since week 7, and there is no guarantee that number bounces back this week. JuJu Smith-Schuster gets the best individual matchup of the week against Taron Johnson, and Diontae Johnson has the safest target share (at least 10 targets in every full game he’s played this year). 60+ yards and a TD is always possible for Claypool, but this week he’s more of a borderline WR3 than a guy I would fire up with confidence.

WR Michael Pittman, Jr. (Wk. 14: @LV): Last week’s blowup game by TY Hilton shows that I may have been a little early to anoint Pittman as the WR1 in Indy, but he gets another decent matchup this week with the Raiders. Vegas allows the 13^th-most WR points per game, but that number would probably be higher if they weren’t also bad at stopping the run. Even if he truly hasn’t overtaken Hilton yet, Pittman has still been utilized a lot in recent weeks and has a solid connection with Philip Rivers. In his last 5 games, Pittman has averaged 6.4 targets, 4.2 catches, and just under 60 yards per game. He had an inefficient performance in week 12 with just 2 catches on 9 targets, but if you throw that game away he and Rivers have connected on 15 of the last 16 throws in his direction. If the targets are there again this week, the points will be too. He’s an upside flex play.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 14: @Cin.): Lamb managed to make it 5 straight weeks with at least 4 receptions last Sunday, but he still hasn’t caught for more than 71 yards in a game not started by Dak Prescott. Amari Cooper draws the toughest individual matchup among the Cowboy receivers against Cincy’s #1 corner William Jackson, so there could be a couple extra throws that come Lamb’s way. CeeDee should mostly face off with Mackensie Alexander in the slot. Alexander has allowed nearly a 70% completion percentage into his coverage, but just 6.3 yards per target and zero touchdowns on 45 throws in his direction. Lamb remains a floor play flex option once again.

TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 14: vs. Hou.): Kmet finally saw the targets to match his snap share last week. He’s out-snapped Jimmy Graham for 3 straight games but had nothing to show for it until last Sunday. Facing off with a defense that allows the 8^th-fewest tight end points per game, Kmet managed to put up 5-37-1 on 7 targets. Houston isn’t as tough on the position, allowing the 16^th-most points. Kmet is far from a safe option, but he’s in play as a borderline TE1 this week at what has been a barren fantasy position once you get past the top few options. 

Rookies to Sit:

QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. NO): The Eagles have made the bold decision to turn to Hurts at QB this week and send Carson Wentz to the bench. This move might’ve been made sooner if the Eagles didn’t have so much invested in Wentz. Wentz has struggled badly, but Hurts gets a tough matchup for his first career start. The Saints rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 3^rd-fewest QB points per game for the year. There will be a learning curve for Hurts as a passer at the NFL level, and the Eagles offensive line play should be even shakier going forward with Jason Peters out for the rest of the year. Hurts does have a ton of upside as a runner that could make him an interesting QB2 option in one of these final weeks, but I don’t think this is the week to count on that. I’ve seen prop bets for Hurts’ rushing yards this week set at 33.5, and I would be hammering the over on that number. He ran for at least that many yards in every single game at Oklahoma last year, and for 60+ yards in 10 of his 14 games.

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): Moss had been functioning as the 1-A back of the Bills backfield committee in recent weeks, but a costly fumble deep in their own territory last Monday (that was somehow charged to Josh Allen) changed that quickly. Devin Singletary played most of the snaps after the fumble. Moss will probably play more this week than he did last week, but the way he was completely benched last week leads me to believe he’ll have some work to do to build back the trust from the coaches to go back to his normal role. I’d expect Moss to be more of the 1-B to Singletary for the immediate future, and this week the Bills face a Pittsburgh defense that ranks 3^rd in run defense DVOA and allows the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game. That’s not a great situation for his fantasy prospects this week.

RB/WRs Lynn Bowden, Jr. & Malcolm Perry, MIA (Wk. 14: vs. KC): News broke this weekend that Myles Gaskin was placed on the Dolphins’ COVID list, and backups Salvon Ahmed & Matt Brieda have both already been ruled out as well. That leaves just DeAndre Washington and Patrick Laird as healthy backs on the team, and both are better suited to a 3^rd down receiving role. Washington is expected to be the starter, but there has been speculation that Lynn Bowden could help fill some of the void since he played some running back in college. I’m not convinced. Bowden has played the vast majority of his snaps as a pro at wide receiver. His running back eligibility could give him some upside if I was confident that he was going to play most of the snaps at slot WR, but Malcolm Perry’s return from injury throws some doubt on that. Perry is a similarly versatile player who played 78% of the offensive snaps in the last game he was healthy for. Bowden was more productive last week than Perry was before getting hurt, but Perry was playing ahead of Bowden prior to the injury. I’d expect him to take at least some of the slot WR work from Bowden if he’s active. That’s enough to make want to avoid both in a matchup against a defense that allows the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game.

RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): As expected, Kelley was banished to the bench with both Austin Ekeler and Kalen Ballage active last week. Kelley played just 3 snaps in garbage time of a blowout loss to New England last Sunday. It’s unlikely he sees that playing time increase much without an injury in front of him.

RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 14: @Buf.): In the last two weeks with James Conner sidelined on the COVID list, McFarland played a total of just 25 snaps and posted 41 scrimmage yards. Conner returns this week, so there’s no reason McFarland should be in your lineups.

RB Darrynton Evans, TEN (Wk. 14: @Jax.): Evans returns from IR this week, so he is a name to remember, but he’ll be competing with Jeremy McNichols for backup work and this is Derrick Henry’s show. The only way he’ll play more than a handful of snaps in this one is if there happens to be garbage time. The Titans are favored by 7.5 and the Jaguars have just one win, so it’s possible that happens, but the Jaguars have lost by more than 4 points just once in their past 5 games. Only one of those last 5 opponents has a record below .500.

WRs Jerry Jeudy & KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 14: @Car.): Jeudy and Hamler have flashed fantasy upside at times this year, but the Broncos’ passing game is tough to count on week-to-week. Jeudy in particular hasn’t quite been on the same page with Drew Lock this season, as only 54% of Jeudy’s targets this season have been catchable according to Pro Football Focus. This week’s opponent, the Panthers, allow the 13^th-fewest WR points per game, and the guys who have done the most damage against them have been WR1s. Tim Patrick has led the Broncos WRs in snaps in each of the last 3 weeks and has functioned as the WR1 of this offense when healthy. The full list of wide receivers who have put up 15+ points against the Panthers this season is Mike Evans (twice), Keenan Allen, Justin Jefferson, Calvin Ridley (with Julio out), and Julio Jones (in the other meeting). None of these Denver receivers are in that ballpark right now. I’d look for a better option this week.

WR Collin Johnson, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): Johnson has taken advantage of injuries ahead of him on the depth chart to emerge in the last couple weeks, posting a line of 8-162-1 in the last 2 games on 14 targets due to missed time by DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault. Mike Glennon has always liked tall receivers, so Johnson has been a popular name in fantasy circles after his recent performances, but I think he goes back to a limited role this week with Shenault on track to return. Viska exited the game last week just before halftime with a thumb injury. This is a plus matchup for wide receivers with the Titans allowing the 5^th-most points per game to the position, but I’d be surprised if Johnson sees more than just a few targets. Chark and Shenault are the Jacksonville receivers I’d view as most likely to take advantage of the matchup.

WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. NO): As the Eagles get healthier at the skill positions, Reagor continues to inexplicably lose target share and snaps to guys who probably shouldn’t be featured ahead of him. Alshon Jeffery played his highest snap share of the season last week, and Zach Ertz’s return is bound to siphon off targets from other weapons as well. In his first game back, he played a higher snap share as the TE2 behind Goedert than Richard Rodgers did in any game this year. Those snaps are going to come from the receivers. Travis Fulgham has taken a bigger hit than Reagor, but it hasn’t been good for the rookie either. He was targeted just once last week in a game where Philly threw the ball 27 times. The addition of Jalen Hurts at QB makes this offense even more unpredictable. Reagor is probably going to be tough to trust in you lineups just about every week the rest of the way.

WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 14: vs. Ind.): Ruggs made one of the plays of the week last Sunday when the Jets inexplicably blitzed on the last play of the game and left the speedster one-on-one with undrafted rookie corner Lamar Jackson, and he made them pay with a game-winning TD catch. While it was a feel-good moment for Ruggs, it isn’t a reason for you to start putting him into your fantasy lineups. Last week was just the second time all season that Ruggs topped 8 fantasy points, and he needed that miracle TD to do it. He had less than 5 fantasy points before the final play. This week he faces a Colts defense that allows the 9^th-fewest WR points per game and ranks 5^th in pass defense DVOA. I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance.

WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 14: vs. GB): Like Henry Ruggs, Cephus caught a long TD in a comeback win last Sunday, but as with Ruggs it’s not a reason to trust him going forward. Cephus now has 14 targets in 2 games against the Bears, and 11 total targets in the other 6 games he’s played. Marvin Hall was cut recently after Mohamed Sanu was brought in, and Cephus has been splitting snaps with Sanu and Danny Amendola behind Marvin Jones. Jones has been a full-time player, and in the first game without Marvin Hall it was Sanu at 59% of the snaps, Amendola at 49%, and Cephus at 46%. Sanu has seen his snap share increase each week he’s been with the team, and Amendola was likely being eased back in after missing the previous two games, so there is reason to believe Cephus will play less this week. Jaire Alexander is likely to be shadowing Marvin Jones, so there is upside for the receivers behind him, but I don’t expect Quintez to be the beneficiary.

WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Devin could’ve been a sneaky play this week if Willie Snead and Mark Andrews weren’t activated from the COVID list ahead of the game. The Browns allow the 7^th-most WR points per game, and with Dez Bryant seemingly calling it quits after testing positive for Covid-19 on Tuesday, Duvernay would’ve been in line for a sizable role against that defense if Snead & Andrews were out. With them back he will play his usual role, a role that hasn’t seen him handle more than 3 targets in any game this season. He’s no more than a minimum-priced dart throw in DFS tournaments.

TE Adam Trautman, NO (Wk. 14: @Phi.): Trautman was leading the Saints’ TE group in snaps for a few weeks with Taysom Hill at QB, but hadn’t converted those snaps to production. Last week he dropped to just 35% of the snaps, and posted just 3 catches for 9 yards against the worst TE defense in the league. This week will likely be the last start for Hill this season, and when Brees comes back I’d expect Trautman’s snaps to decrease even further. He’s playing because he’s a better run blocker than the other TE options on the team. We haven’t seen enough production from Trautman to consider him even in another plus matchup this week.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 14: vs. NYJ): The logic here is pretty simple. The Seahawks are a 2-touchdown favorite playing the worst team in the league. Carlos Hyde and Chris Carson are both less than 100% and Travis Homer is doubtful this week. If the Seahawks put this game away early, we could see a lot of Dallas in the 2^nd half, and I like the Seahawks’ chances to put this game away early. The Jets’ new defensive coordinator said the scheme won’t change much with Gregg Williams gone. The Jets are one of the blitz-happiest in the league (3^rd-highest blitz rate), and Russell Wilson feasts on defenses that give his receivers one-on-one coverage. The Jets are a better run defense than pass defense, so I expect Russ to carve them up in the first half, and for the Seahawks to put things on cruise control in the second half. Dallas costs the minimum on DraftKings, and could see double-digit touches in a game where the Seahawks implied point total is over 30 points.

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): As mentioned with Collin Johnson, the Titans are not a very good defense against wide receivers. They allow the 5^th-most points per game to the position and rank 30^th in pass defense DVOA. Shenault managed to post a useful day last week despite getting injured late in the first half, and this week could have a very favorable individual matchup. The Titans will be without Adoree Jackson, Breon Borders & Kristian Fulton at CB, and the likely guy they’ll ask to step in and start is Tye Smith. Smith has played limited snaps this season, but has allowed 2 TDs and a passer rating of 140.7 on the 11 throws into his coverage. Viska hasn’t really shown a big ceiling this season, but if there is a week for him to do it, it’s probably this one.

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): In the 5 games where Davis has played 70% or more of the offensive snaps, he’s posted 58+ receiving yards 4 times, averaging about 60 yards and 10 fantasy points per game in those contests. This one is a tough matchup. The Steelers rank 1^st in pass defense DVOA, but there are 11 teams that allow fewer WR points per game than Pittsburgh, and John Brown remains on IR so Davis is likely to play almost every snap. He’s a reasonable flex option of you’re searching for points in a deep league.

WR Darnell Mooney, TEN (Wk. 14: vs. Hou.): This matchup is a great spot for Allen Robinson, but Mooney could return nice value as well. In each of their 3 games without Bradley Roby, the Texans have allowed the opposing #1 receiver to put up at least 110 yards and a touchdown, but they are a lackluster pass defense overall. They rank 25^th in pass defense DVOA, and in the last two games with Trubisky at quarterback Mooney has been targeted 15 times. That kind of volume in this matchup gives him a reasonable shot at 50+ yards, a mark he hasn’t reached since week 8.

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): KhaDarel Hodge is likely out this week, so Donovan Peoples-Jones should be the WR3 for Cleveland again Monday night. Game script will likely have the Browns throwing more this week than they did last week, and while he hasn’t seen a ton of targets DPJ has made a big touchdown play in both games where he’s played 50%+ of the snaps. There is some question as to whether Marvin Hall will steal any snaps from him in his first active game with Cleveland,  but I’d expect it to be mostly Peoples-Jones. The Ravens allow just the 6^th-fewest WR points per game, so DPJ is no more than a cheap upside option for DFS tournaments.

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): Austin Hooper is listed as questionable after popping up on the injury report Friday with a ‘did not practice’ designation for a neck injury. If Hooper misses this game, Bryant has upside in this one if you’re desperate for a tight end. The Ravens have a reputation as a tough defense, but they are in the middle of the pack against tight ends (17^th-most TE points allowed per game) and Bryant posted a 4-56-2 line in the one game he played with Hooper sidelined that wasn’t in a monsoon. If Hooper sits, Bryant is probably a borderline top-15 play at tight end this week.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies, and helps you advance to next week. Make sure to check the active/inactive updates on Sunday, and make sure you don’t start a sidelined player. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.