Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re now more than halfway through the NFL season, and that means we’re heading into the home stretch of the fantasy regular season. This is the point in the season where we typically see rookies start to turn the corner…where regular playing time starts to turn into more consistent production, and where some players we haven’t seen much of start to see their role expand. In 2019, all of Deebo Samuel’s top-3 yardage games came after week 8. For AJ Brown, all of his top-4 were after week 10. Miles Sanders, Diontae Johnson, Hunter Renfrow, N’Keal Harry, and Noah Fant all saw their roles expand in the back half of 2019 as well. Who will those players be in 2020? From what we’ve seen in recent weeks Chase Claypool and Jerry Jeudy may be turning that corner right now. Zack Moss, LaMical Perine and D’Andre Swift have been seeing their workloads expand as well, and even Cam Akers got a handful of carries last week. Before we get ahead of ourselves and start thinking about what the rest of the season holds for the rookies, let’s talk about what to expect in week 10…
(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under same header at same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)
Rookies to Start:
RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 10: @GB): It’s been an ugly year for the Jacksonville Jaguars, but that hasn’t stopped Robinson from being the most productive rookie running back in the league so far. He’s the RB4 for the season, and this week gets to face a Green Bay defense that has allowed the 2nd-most RB points per game and ranks 20th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. In 8 games, the Packers have faced off with a top-13 fantasy running back 5 times, and the lowest fantasy output any of them have posted against Green Bay was 18.8 points from Todd Gurley. There is a little concern for Robinson this week since Jacksonville is a 2-touchdown underdog and Chris Thompson siphons off a bit of the passing down work each week, but you have to bet on Robinson coming through again. He’s shown time and again that he can still produce in blowout losses, and Green Bay is about as burnable as it gets for RB matchups. Robinson should be worth his price tag in DFS formats this week.
RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 10: @Det.): For much of this season Antonio Gibson has seen a cap put on his fantasy upside by Washington’s dedication to separating the early down work from the 3rd down work. Gibson has just 1 touch all year on 3rd down. JD McKissic is dominating the 3rd down workload, so Gibson has to make his mark on early downs. Luckily, he gets to face the Detroit Lions this week, who have given up an average of 137 rushing yards on 1st and 2nd down per game. The Lions allow more fantasy points per game to opposing running backs than any other team in the league, and have given up 13+ fantasy points to the opposing lead back in every game since week 3. The Lions are favored to win by 4, but this should be a competitive enough game that Gibson is involved throughout. He’s a safe RB2 with upside for more.
WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. Cin.): Claypool seems to have finally turned the corner in recent weeks, seeing strong target shares in games where Diontae Johnson was fully healthy. Claypool has been targeted 22 times in the last 2 weeks, and has turned in 15+ PPR points in each game. This week the Steelers face off with the Bengals, who rank 25th in pass defense DVOA, and the Steelers have a healthy implied total of 27.5 points. We’ve seen the weekly upside Claypool has flashed this season. You may be kicking yourself if you leave him on your bench in this one.
WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 10: @Pit.): On the other side of the Steelers-Bengals matchup, Tee Higgins should be in line for another solid game. The Steelers have had one of the most formidable defenses in the league, but they’ve struggled to shut down opposing wide receivers. Pittsburgh has allowed the 9th-most WR points per game, and they’ve struggled with both perimeter and slot receivers. Higgins has been remarkably consistent despite having Tyler Boyd and AJ Green competing with him for targets. The rookie has at least 7 targets in 5 of his last 6 games, and 60+ yards in each of his last 5. This isn’t a week where he’ll have the highest ceiling, but Higgins is going to be a safe WR3 with a high floor despite facing a pretty solid pass defense.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 10: vs. LAC): Tua quickly made people forget his inauspicious debut in his second start, finishing as the QB16 in a game against a solid QB defense in Arizona. This week he faces a Chargers defense that allows the 4th-most QB points per game. His weapons aren’t at full strength with Myles Gaskin and Preston Williams on IR, but I trust Tua to post another solid game and flirt with QB1 territory. He costs $1,000 less than Justin Herbert on DraftKings, but I’d give him a slightly better than 50/50 chance to finish with more points than his fellow rookie.
QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 10: @Mia.): Herbert has been a locked-and-loaded QB1 most weeks since the start of October, with at least 21 fantasy points in each game, but the Dolphins have forced some QB floor games this year. They’ve allowed fewer than 13 fantasy points to the opposing QB 3 different times this season, and the guys that they’ve struggled with have been running QBs (Cam Newton, Josh Allen, and Kyler Murray). Herbert has some mobility, but it’s not a focal point of his game. The Dolphins rank 8th in pass defense DVOA. If you have Herbert, you’re probably playing him, but be warned that this might not be one of his top performances. I’d view him as more of a contrarian play in DFS formats, and a borderline option in 1-QB leagues.
RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 10: vs. Was.): I mentioned you should start Antonio Gibson this week, but on the opposite side of the Washington-Detroit game, D’Andre Swift should be in line for another useful fantasy day as well. The Football Team is much better at defending the pass than the run. They rank 1st in pass defense DVOA, but just a middling 17th in run defense DVOA and are fresh off allowing Wayne Gallman to post an RB6 finish a week ago. There is a ‘revenge game’ narrative for Adrian Peterson in this one, and the Lions have less-than-exciting implied total for a favorite at just 24.75, so Swift isn’t an auto-start here. I do like his chances of returning an RB2 performance, but wouldn’t go out of my way to play him over safer choices.
RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 10: @NE): Dobbins came back down to earth a bit last weekend against the Colts after a breakout game the week before. His outlook this week could get a little murkier with Mark Ingram looking likely to return (he practiced on Friday). New England can be run on. They rank 31st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 13th-most RB points per game, and Baltimore should have game script in their favor as a touchdown favorite. If Ingram returns, this will go back to being a 3-headed monster at running back, so Dobbins would likely be in line for 10-12 carries. That kind of workload would likely make him a fringe RB2 if he’s able to find the end zone. You could do worse if you’re struggling to fill in a last RB spot.
RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 10: @Ari.): Moss has steadily worked himself into a bigger role since returning from injury a few weeks back, and has now played more snaps and posted more fantasy points than Devin Singletary in each of the last 2 weeks. The key to his fantasy production has been and will continue to be touchdowns. He’s found the end zone 3 times in the last 2 weeks. The workload split with Singletary means Moss will be in the range of 10 touches most weeks, and more often than not that isn’t going to get him to the RB2 range without a touchdown. This week he faces an Arizona defense that is the definition of middling against running backs. They rank 16th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 17th-most RB points per game. The Bills do have an implied total of 27.25 in what should be a bit of a shootout, so a TD may be in the offing for Moss. He’s a reasonable flex option.
RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 10: @Mia.): With Austin Ekeler’s return looming, Kelley’s time as a fantasy relevant back this year may be winding down. He’s had trouble holding off Justin Jackson, Troymaine Pope and Kalen Ballage for work in recent weeks, and once Ekeler returns any one of those guys could push Kelley completely to the bench. For this week, there is a chance that Pope and Ballage handle the bulk of the work, but I wouldn’t count on that happening. I expect Kelley to see in the range of 10-12 touches, and Miami ranks 29th in run defense DVOA and allows the 11th-most RB points per game. I’d view Kelley as a risky flex option in leagues with 12+ teams.
RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 10: @LAR): The Seahawks have officially ruled out Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde yet again this week, so DeeJay Dallas will face the Rams in a backfield committee with Travis Homer and Alex Collins. Last week with the same competition, Dallas played 31% of the offensive snaps and handled 45% of the running back touches. His role might have been larger if the Seahawks hadn’t played from behind all game. Seattle enters this week as a 1.5-point underdog, but one with an implied total of 27.5 points in a potential shootout. The Rams aren’t an inviting matchup, allowing the 7th-fewest RB points per game. A running back in a limited role facing that matchup isn’t one that you should be eager to get into your lineup. He has enough upside that you could talk yourself into using him as flex option, but you’ll probably be better off looking elsewhere.
WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 10: @LV): Jeudy posted his best game of the season in week 9, finishing as the WR8 for the week. In recent weeks, KJ Hamler has started to play more slot snaps and Jeudy has spent more time on the outside, and the results have been favorable for Jeudy. This week he faces off with the Raiders, who rank 26th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed a perimeter receiver to go over 75 receiving yards in all but 2 games this year. After his breakout game, I expect Jeudy to have a better chance than Tim Patrick to be the Bronco that gets to 75 yards this week. Jeudy should be a reasonable WR3 this week in a game where the Broncos could be chasing points as a 5-point underdog.
WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 10: @NO): Aiyuk will once again be San Francisco’s default #1 receiving option this week. Deebo Samuel remains sidelined with injury, and Aiyuk had a 25% target share with Samuel sidelined in week 8. Aiyuk is likely to face off with New Orleans’ top corner Marshon Lattimore, which could cap his upside a little, but Kyle Shanahan is a clever enough coach to move him around the formation and use him as a rusher as well to get him away from Lattimore a bit. The Saints do rank 9th in pass defense DVOA, but I still like Aiyuk’s chances to post a WR3 day Sunday. He should be a safe bet for 7+ targets in a game where the 49ers are 9-point underdogs.
WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 10: @Chi.): Jefferson has flashed overall WR1 upside some weeks, but he’s been a bit volatile from week-to-week. He’s had two games of over 150 yards this season, and 3 with fewer than 30 yards. The Bears are not an easy matchup, allowing the 3rd-fewest points per game to the position, so there is a chance this is more of a floor week for Jefferson. His low output weeks have usually come when the Vikings play from ahead, and they are 2.5-point favorites this week. Jefferson’s upside is tough to sit, but if you have other strong options this isn’t a bad week to chance sitting him. If he tops 60 yards it will be a successful week for the rookie.
WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 10: vs. Min.): Mooney led the Bears in targets in week 9 with 11 of them, and while I don’t expect for him to continue to see more targets than Allen Robinson, his usage has been pretty consistent since the start of October. Mooney has at least 5 targets in each of the last 7 games, and is averaging 8 per game over the last 3. The Vikings allow the 2nd-most WR points per game, so Mooney has a solid chance at double-digit PPR points even if he doesn’t out-target A-Rob again.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 10: @Pit.): Burrow is probably fine as a QB2 this week given the limited slate of games and his recent production. He’s thrown for over 300 yards 5 times in his last 7 starts and only been held short of 15 fantasy points once in those games. I would shy away from considering him in 1-QB formats though. This isn’t going to be a ceiling week for the rookie. Pittsburgh hasn’t allowed 20 fantasy points to any QB they’ve faced this year, and an average of just over 12.5 QBs per week have topped 20 points. A QB1 week is likely not in the offing for Burrow against a defense that wants to show that last week’s performance against Dallas was an aberration. The Steelers rank 3rd in pass defense DVOA and allow the 5th-fewest QB points per game.
QB Jake Luton, JAX (Wk. 10: @GB): Luton acquitted himself better than I expected him to in his first NFL start, finishing as the QB15 with over 300 yards and a TD through the air, and another TD on the ground. He did that against one of the worst QB defenses in the league though in Houston. The Packers allow the 6th-fewest QB points per game, and Jacksonville has an implied total below 20 points. The way to hang in the game with Green Bay is to run the ball, and I’d expect a lot of James Robinson in this one. Luton is only worth consideration as a low-end QB2 option.
RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 10: vs. Sea.): Akers finally got himself into the backfield mix in the Rams’ last contest with Darrell Henderson suffering a thigh injury, and he managed to put up 54 scrimmage yards on 9 carries and 1 catch. It’s possible that the strong performance leads to more work for Akers coming out of the bye week, but Darrell Henderson will return this week and is the likeliest bet to lead the backfield in week 10. Seattle allows the 13th-fewest RB points per game and ranks 9th in run defense DVOA. If Henderson leads the way for this backfield as expected, Akers faces an uphill battle to post a useful fantasy day in this matchup.
RB JaMycal Hasty, SF (Wk. 10: @NO): The 49ers backfield without Raheem Mostert has proven to be a weekly crapshoot, and for the time being it looks like Jerick McKinnon is at the top of the depth chart. Hasty will mix in a fair amount for as long as the 49ers remain in the game, but the passing work will likely go mostly to McKinnon and the Saints are favored by 9. New Orleans also allows the 5th-fewest RB points per game. Hasty is best left on the bench this week.
RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. Cin.): McFarland handled 5 touches last Sunday, the most he’s had in a game since week 3, but he totaled just 22 scrimmage yards. The Steelers were surprisingly trailing for much of the game against Dallas. I wouldn’t expect a repeat of that scenario this week. The Steelers are favored by 7.5 points against Cincy, so I’d expect them to get back to using James Conner quite a bit. McFarland shouldn’t be near your starting lineups.
WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 10: @Ari.): Davis is coming off a 4-70-1 performance on 5 targets against the Seahawks last Sunday, but he posted those numbers on the fewest snaps he’s played since week 2, and the Seahawks have been the worst WR defense in the league by a LOT. No team comes within 10 points per game of what Seattle allows to the position. Week 9 was the first time in almost a month that Davis posted more than 1 catch and more than 11 yards. The fact that he did so with a shrinking snap share means he shouldn’t be counted on to do it again. The Cardinals are a much tougher WR defense than the Seahawks, allowing the 15th-most WR points per game…which is a full 17 points per game less than Seattle gives up to the position. Davis is best left on the bench this week.
WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 10: vs. Den.): There is going to come a week where Henry Ruggs has another blowup game, but with the type of production he’s been posting from week-to-week, I’d rather it happen from my bench than risk him putting up less than 5 points in the lineup. Ruggs has fewer than 5 points in 3 out of the 6 games he’s played, and just 5.5 in one of the others. Denver does allow the 8th-most WR points per game, but they’re above average when it comes to not giving up big plays. Only 9 teams have allowed fewer completions of 20+ yards than the Broncos. I’d avoid Ruggs’ rookie teammate Bryan Edwards for now as well. Edwards played just 1 snap in his return a week ago.
WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 10: vs. Hou.): The Browns have played just one full game since the injury to Odell Beckham Jr., and Peoples-Jones played just 4 snaps in that game as Khadarel Hodge moved back into 3-wide receiver sets. The Browns’ offense is going to get more crowded this week as they get Austin Hooper & Nick Chubb back on the field. This is a plus matchup for most offensive players, but I doubt DPJ sees the field much.
WR Austin Mack, NYG (Wk. 10: vs. Phi.): Mack made the most of an unexpected opportunity last weekend when the Giants benched Golden Tate for the week. He hauled in 4 of 5 targets for 72 yards, but Tate will be back in the lineup this Sunday. Mack will be lucky to play more than 10-15 snaps in this one behind Tate, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton.
WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 10: vs. Was.): Kenny Golladay is out again this week, but even with him missing this game, I wouldn’t look to Cephus as a fill-in. He’ll be on the field a reasonable amount (he played 41% of the snaps last week), but he’s essentially playing as the #3 guy in a 3-man rotation for the team’s WR2 & 3 roles with Marvin Hall & Danny Amendola. Washington allows the fewest WR points per game, so this isn’t a matchup to bet on Cephus making things happen with limited snaps.
WR Freddie Swain, SEA (Wk. 10: @LAR): Swain has been on the field a fair amount for Seattle, averaging about 24 snaps per game in the last 6 games, but he’s totaled just 5 catches on 9 targets in those games. Unless something happens to a wide receiver ahead of him there isn’t much reason to consider him.
WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 10: @Car.): As expected, the addition of Antonio Brown and the return of Chris Godwin have rendered Johnson irrelevant for fantasy purposes. He did record a catch on Sunday night, but played just 6 snaps and operated as the team’s WR5. Johnson is best left to the waiver wire unless more injuries pop up ahead of him.
Rookies on Byes: QB Ben DiNucci, DAL, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC, RB LaMical Perine, NYJ, WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL, WR Denzel Mims, NYJ
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Salvon Ahmed, MIA (Wk. 10: vs. LAC): Thanks to continued ineffectiveness from Jordan Howard, Ahmed looks like the best fantasy option in the Dolphins backfield until Myles Gaskin returns. Howard posted 19 yards on 10 carries last week, and now has just 33 yards on 28 carries on the year. Ahmed posted 38 yards on 7 carries in the first game he was active for all year. The Chargers are a vulnerable run defense, allowing the 12th-most fantasy points per game to backs, and ranking 23rd in run defense DVOA. Ahmed is a worthwhile option if you’re desperate for a running back in deep leagues, and he costs the minimum on DraftKings this week.
RB AJ Dillon, GB (Wk. 10: vs. Jax.): Dillon hasn’t really gotten much opportunity this season, even when Aaron Jones missed time with injury, but this week could set up for some garbage time carries for the rookie. The Packers are favored by 13.5 points, and the Jaguars are a favorable running back matchup. Jacksonville allows the 6th-most RB points per game and rank 21st in run defense DVOA. Dillon could push for double-digit touches in garbage time if the Packers pull away. This has a decent chance to be Dillon’s best fantasy game of the season, even if that isn’t saying all that much. His current high-water mark is 4.2 points.
WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 10: @NYG): We haven’t seen the Eagles fully unleash Reagor just yet, and I’m not sure we see it this week either. Alshon Jeffery will make his season debut, and that will throw some uncertainty into how the WR snaps shake out. If I had to guess, Greg Ward is the receiver who will lose the most snaps to Jeffery, but if that happens it’s unclear which of Reagor or Travis Fulgham will play in the slot. The Giants are a favorable matchup for wide receivers, allowing the 10th-most WR points per game and ranking 28th in pass defense DVOA, and Reagor found the end zone in the last meeting between these two teams. I’d expect Jeffery to be on a bit of a pitch count, and Fulgham to be the best fantasy option of the WR group, but Reagor will have some upside as well in the plus matchup. The best place to consider him would be in DFS though. I’d be more inclined to take a wait-and-see approach with Reagor in season-long leagues to see how the receiver rotation shakes out with Alshon back.
WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 10: @LV): I would probably stay away from Hamler in season-long leagues unless they’re pretty deep, but he’s an intriguing low-priced DFS tournament option this week. Hamler costs just $3,800 on DraftKings, and as mentioned under Jerry Jeudy the Broncos could be chasing points and the Raiders rank 26th in pass defense DVOA. Hamler’s move to the slot in recent weeks means he gets to face off with Lamarcus Joyner this week, who has been the weakest of the Raiders’ corners. Hamler saw a season-high 10 targets last Sunday, and there is a good chance that Denver is throwing 40+ times again in this one.TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 10: vs. Hou.): Austin Hooper returns this week, but it was clear while Hooper was out that Bryant is the #2 tight end in this offense over David Njoku. The Browns use two tight end sets as their base offense, and the Texans have given up 8-113-1 to Anthony Firkser, 3-35 to Vance McDonald, and a touchdown to Jace Sternberger this season. Backup tight ends have had success against Houston. Overall, they allow the 10th-most TE points per game, so Bryant is a little bit better than a TD dart throw this week.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to check the active/inactive updates on Sunday, and make sure you don’t start a sidelined player. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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