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Four weeks into the NFL season and most of us have experienced at least some upheaval when it comes to our starting lineups. Here, we have six sleeper picks for you. These are guys that are buried on your bench, or perhaps still on the waiver wire, who can deliver the promise of a top-10 performance in Week 5. Remember, I said promise, not guarantee.

Jason:

• James Conner (vs SF) - Last week Conner was the RB8, the week before he was the RB12. The 49ers are giving up the 10th most points to opposing RBs. The 49ers are either going to roll out an injury-hobbled Jimmy G, or Trey Lance in his first NFL start. Either way, the league’s highest scoring offense will be just fine and the Cardinals, who have scored at least 31 points every week, could easily find themselves with clock to burn in garbage time. So, even though Conner is not doing much with the decent amount of carries he’s getting, he is finding the end zone lately. It seems like the short yardage work is going to go his way for now, instead of Kyler Murray’s - which is a smart way to keep your QB healthy.

• Kadarius Toney (@ DAL) - Last week, the Giants had two of their starting WRs, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton, out with injury. The result was that the Giants hadtheir best passing performance of the season, and it wasn’t even close. Kadarius Toney led the team in targets with 9, catching 6 of them for 78 yards. Toney gets to play the Cowboys this year, who are giving up the 3rd most points to opposing WRs through 4 games. Toney should get peppered with targets once again, either from the Giants keeping pace with the Cowboys, or just trying to catch up if it’s a blowout. Either way, it’s a prime spot for Toney to break out and also find the end zone for the first time.

• Zack Moss (@ KC) - After being inactive for Week 1, Moss has had a very steady fantasy season. He has scored a touchdown in each of the last 3 games. This week he goes up against yet another defense that is giving up top 10 fantasy points to opposing RBs. The Chiefs are 5th on that list, and really just giving up tons of points to everyone so far this year. Moss has slowly gained more of a share of the carries in the Buffalo backfield, and if I had to pick between him and Devin Singletary, I’m going with Moss to be the guy to have the big game against Kansas City. The touchdown streak continues, the Bills keep rolling and will put up another 40 against the Chiefs (their average score during this winning streak is 39.3).

Dave:

• Michael Carter (@ ATL) - As predicted by many in the fantasy football community earlier this year, Michael Carter has begun to take over the Jets’ backfield snaps from Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman. He had a season-high 13 attempts last week against the Titans, but was only able to put up 9.4 points against the middling rushing defense (including his first NFL touchdown). Good news ahead for Carter, though. He’ll be going up against the Falcons in Week 5 who have been giving up an average of 19.9 points per week to opposing RBs. It’s not likely that Carter starts to see more passing down work, but the momentum looks good to me at the moment - coming off their first win of the season in overtime and finally all of their receivers healthy at one time could be just the combination of fairy dust necessary for Carter’s breakout performance.

• Laviska Shenault (vs TEN) - Unfortunately, D.J. Chark was injured on the fourth play of the game last week against the Bengals, getting carted off the field with what was later determined to be a broken left ankle. It’s not likely that we’ll be seeing him for the rest of the season, which opens up the #1 WR spot on the Jaguars for second-year receiver Shenault. While it’s true that he only has the second-most targets on the team so far this season with 28 to Marvin Jones’s 31, a quick glance at the trajectory of their trending statistics reveals that Jones has had fewer targets and less fantasy production each of the past 3 weeks, whereas Shenault has registered an increase in receptions, yardage, and fantasy points over the same time period. A clear indication of how his usage will trend moving forward, especially with Chark’s injury. Trevor Lawrence leaned on Shenault heavily last week and will continue to do so against Tennessee’s league-worst passing defense, currently allowing 36.1 fantasy points per game on average.

• Robby Anderson (vs PHI) - Historically considered by many to be your classic boom-or-bust fantasy option, Anderson has already showcased his deep field abilities this year in week 1 with a 57-yard TD from current QB and former teammate Sam Darnold. So that’s not at all in question. No, the issue is more about Anderson’s consistency of play and whether or not he can get into the same rhythm with Darnold as he did with Teddy Bridgewater under center in 2020. He had 95 receptions for over 1,000 yards last season. This week’s matchup against the Eagles is a positive one for Anderson, with the Philadelphia passing defense on the wrong side of good so far this season, and his targets per game trending up from 3 to 6 to 11 if you discount the Houston win (26-9) in week 3 as a game that didn’t require a lot of field stretching to put to pasture. It’s clear that D.J. Moore has solidified his position as the WR1 in Carolina, but there is room on this offense for Anderson to succeed as well.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

7 of the Top 12 QBs

Quarterback continues to be a volatile position in fantasy football. This certainly has not been the case in years past, but this week alone, 7 of the top 12 QBs by fantasy points are not owned in the Drinkfive league. Part of the issue is that many top guys were out with injury, bye weeks, or...other issues. Another problem is that many top guys under performed - Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes combined for fewer points than Josh Johnson. Of course, credit must go to Josh Johnson, who put up big numbers in the (garbage) time he had vs the Colts on Thursday night. Colt McCoy and Trevor Siemian also get big kudos for turning in good performances in their first starts of the season, finishing as the QB11 and QB12 respectively. Overall, the 7 QBs that are unowned in the top 12 represent just 38% average ownership (in Fleaflicker leagues) - that number also is heavily weighted by Matt Ryan’s 81% ownership rate - he’s a free agent in our league right now. So, the lesson here is that volatility can happen in any fantasy football market, including at the traditionally stable quarterback position. If you planned on streaming QBs this year and didn’t invest draft capital in a QB, you’re definitely benefiting from that decision now.

31.4 Fantasy Point Average for the Top 4 RBs

I’ve been pointing out the lack of production from the top of the running back position over the last few weeks, and especially how there’s tons of production from wide receivers. This week was the opposite of that - maybe they got my message? Anyways, we saw huge performances from James Conner (37.8), Jonathan Taylor (33), Nick Chubb (29.3), and Joe Mixon (25.5). This was better than any wide receiver for the week so far. In fact, the best wide receiver owned in 90% or more of Fleaflicker leagues is Keenan Allen, who finished as the 15th best flex player this week (RB/WR/TE). The top 4 RBs on the week combined for 9 touchdowns, 646 total yards, and averaged nearly 8 yards per touch. Quite the week from all 4 guys, all of whom put up their best fantasy game of the year. Final note - even after that huge week, Jonathan Taylor remains the RB2. Derrick Henry still has both more points and more rushing yards than Taylor.

3 WRs with 2 TDs

It was a down week for wide receivers for sure. Only 3 of them managed to find the end zone twice, and stop me if you’ve heard these names on this column before (you haven’t). Elijah Moore, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Malik Turner all found the end zone twice this week, and none of them managed to go over 100 yards receiving. I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance from any of those three - they are owned in an average of 16% of Fleaflicker leagues. Most of that ownership is probably Elijah Moore in dynasty leagues. Only 4 wide receivers did reach the century mark for receiving yards - the same number of RBs who reached that number of rushing yards. This is the first week where the RBs were able to pace the WRs when it came to games over 100 yards - usually it’s close to a 2:1 ratio in favor of the wideouts. 

17.1 Fantasy Points

George Kittle returned to the lineup on Sunday, giving the TE position a much needed boost. In fact, we saw the top 3 drafted tight ends finish 1-2-3 so far on the week. George Kittle was the top finisher, scoring a touchdown and gaining over 100 yards, leading all tight ends in week 9. Travis Kelce was right behind him, and Darren Waller made the most out of his 11 targets, which led all tight ends this week. This is the first time since week 1 of this season that all 3 guys have finished in the top 10 scorers. Of course, after them, 4 of the next 5 TEs were owned in an average of less than 4% of Fleaflicker leagues. This just goes to show that all it takes to be a decent fantasy tight end is that you find the end zone. In fact, 8 of the top 10 TEs did find the end zone, and the #10 guy who didn’t, Jared Cook,  at least was able to get a few points from a 2-point conversion

10 D/STs over 10 points

10 points is a great benchmark for your defense/special teams slot. If you can get 10 or more points, you should definitely be happy. This week, there were plenty of opportunities for you to land a D/ST that could do that for you, but only if you chose wisely. The top team this week were the New England Patriots, the team that consistently just drinks Sam Darnold’s milkshake. The Pats put up 20 points with 3 picks (one of them a pick-six), a sack, and only 6 points allowed. Then it gets interesting. If you had the guts to pick against some of the top offenses in the league, then you stood a great chance of doing well. The Browns (vs CIN), Jaguars (vs BUF), and the Titans (@ LAR) all were able to score at least 16 fantasy points for you. Those three D/STs combined for 6 interceptions, 14 sacks, 2 defensive TDs, 2 fumble recoveries, and an average of just 13 points allowed. One other crazy thing about this week’s D/ST stats - the Texans and Dolphins played against each other and both teams scored at least 15 points against the opposing offense. Truly, that was a game that should have been played on Thursday night.