Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking game scores, spreads and over/unders? Let me be that football wizard who has seen the prophecies of victory and has the ability to put your wagering soul at ease. In this column, I'll go over each match up and point out why I'm leaning a certain direction as well as predicting the point total. I will also tell you who I'd pick when it comes to point spreads and over/unders. Wagering tip of the week: if I'm placing multiple wagers on multiple games, I rank the games in an order based on how confident I am of winning, just like it's a confidence pool. If there are 16 games for example, I would place them in four brackets of four games(or form some system of multiples). The games in the first bracket or two, I would place 2-3 wagers on, including single game bets and parlays. Obviously, the further down the brackets you go, the less you bet on those games. I always put a check mark next to the game every time I use it on a ticket to make sure I don't over play that contest. Remember, don't put all your eggs in one basket, no matter how tantalizing a game line can be.
WEEK 5 PICKS:
ARIZONA CARDINALS 24 @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ers 13 - Even with Carson Palmer sitting out with a concussion, the running game of David Johnson mixed with Arizona's defense, will be way too much for the inconsistent 49ers to handle. Safely take the Cardinals and the low spread as well as taking the over. Mid-to-high confidence points.
BALTIMORE RAVENS 24 @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS 27 - Baltimore couldn't get it done at home against the Raiders last week, so something tells me they'll fall short against the Redskins. Washington isn't exactly a powerhouse, but I like how they've been playing lately and believe this one will come down to a few big plays. The Redskins are underdogs, so take them and the points. Also, go with the over and low pool points.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 34 @ CLEVELAND BROWNS 17 - Okay, we all know Tom Brady is back and that means a huge increase in offense and points for the Patriots. We know the Browns are the Browns, but they are at home and do have one of the best running attacks in the league. Safely take New England and the spread as well as the over. Go high on the confidence rankings.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 27 @ DETROIT LIONS 24 - We're going to get a chance to see if Carson Wentz is for real when he faces the Lions this week. Or will we? I mean, Detroit's defense isn't really that great and Philly also played against the Browns and the Bears. The only tough challenge was a home game against the Steelers. Even though I am going with the Eagles and the rookie in this one, I am treading with caution on the spread and taking the over. Definitely low pool points on this close contest.
CHICAGO BEARS 20 @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 27 - Two struggling teams... one of them will go home with a victory. Since the Colts are at home and have less injured starters, I won't have to flip a coin to predict a winner in this 'loser bowl'. Take the Colts and the spread but stay away from the over/under, it's set up to fail on this match up. Very low confidence points.
TENNESSEE TITANS 27 @ MIAMI DOLPHINS 23 - I'm going against the grain and backing the Titans this week. I don't think Miami's defense can contain DeMarco Murray and think the Fish will be one-dimensional having to throw most of the time. So, take the Titans and the points and definitely take the low over. Low pool points.
HOUSTON TEXANS 17 @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS 27 - The Vikings will be coming off a short week so I can see them giving up a few more points than normal. I still picture them winning without a problem as the offense gels and the defense keeps on shutting down opponents. The Texans will show flashes of pulling off a victory, but Minnesota's defense will cause one too many turnovers for Osweiler and the gang. Safely take the Vikings and the spread, definitely the over and feel confident picking medium to high pool points.
NEW YORK JETS 16 @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS 34 - The Steelers are rolling and the Jets are in their way. New York has a pretty good defense, but it won't be able to handle Pittsburgh's offense firepower. The Jets will only be able to move the ball based on blown coverage plays by the Steelers' defense. Other than that, I don't see a lot of consistency with their offense this week. Take the Steelers and the spread, go with the under and pick medium-to-medium-high pool points.
ATLANTA FALCONS 23 @ DENVER BRONCOS 30 - Matt Ryan and the Falcons will be flying high into Denver fresh off the beat-down given to Carolina last week. Only the Super Bowl contender(and champion) from last year, which they will be facing, has gotten even better from last season. Sure, their defense is still crazy good, but now the offense is consistent and points are easier to come by. Atlanta will still put up a fair share of points, but this is the week they'll be put in check. Take Denver and the spread as well as the over. I'd stay with the middle ground when assigning those pool points.
CINCINNATI BENGALS 27 @ DALLAS COWBOYS 24 - This is going to be a close game and one that will prove if the Cowboys are for real or not. Personally, I think Dallas is fine without Dez Bryant as they have other weapons in the receiving attack and a great running game. This contest will come down to big plays and I would the Bengals and the very low spread. I'd also lean towards the over and put low pool points on this close game.
BUFFALO BILLS 13 @ L.A. RAMS 23 - The Bills' two-game winning streak will come to an end this week when the stout Rams' defense takes control of the game tempo. Points will be hard to come by, so stay away from the over/under but take the Rams and the low spread. Low pool points due to the close, low score.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 31 @ OAKLAND RAIDERS 27 - This is another game that has me going against popular opinion. The Raiders give up a lot of offense to opposing teams and I feel they have been getting lucky. The luck well runs dry this week and Oakland will show it's true colors. They are playing the Charger's weak defense, so getting points won't be a problem. However, it won't be enough to get the job done. Take San Diego and the points as well as the over. I would put very low confidence points on this one.
NEW YORK GIANTS 20 @ GREEN BAY PACKERS 34 - Aaron Rodgers and company are back fresh off a bye week and get to host the Giants at Lambeau. The Packers' defense is middle of the road, so the G-Men will get some points to make it interesting. In the end, Green Bay's passing attack mixed with the solid running of Eddie Lacy, will be way too much for Eli Manning, Odell Beckham and the New York Giants to match. Take the Packers and the spread and go with the over. Put medium pool points on the Pack.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 17 @ CAROLINA PANTHERS 23 - Will Cam play or won't he? This could be a huge deciding factor when trying to pick the outcome of this game. For one, it's a division game and anything can happen. For two, the Panthers have been slipping and now isn't a good time to lose your best offensive player and leader. At the same time, Tampa Bay hasn't exactly been a consistent football team and is one of those squads you just feel uneasy putting your money behind. Personally, I would stay away from picking the spread and the over/under on this contest, as it's what I like to call, a 'succubus' game.
Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking game scores, spreads and over/unders? Let me be that football wizard who has seen the prophecies of victory and has the ability to put your wagering soul at ease. In this column, I'll go over each match up and point out why I'm leaning a certain direction as well as predicting the point total. I will also tell you who I'd pick when it comes to point spreads and over/unders.
WEEK 11 PICKS:
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 34 @ CAROLINA PANTHERS 31 - I believe this game will be decided by a field goal with the underdog pulling out a road victory. Even though New Orleans' defense is flimsy, I just can't trust what the Panthers are selling me on a weekly basis. And how can you not trust Drew Brees? Division games come down to big plays and I think the Saints have more in the bank than Cam Newton and friends. So I'd take New Orleans and the points, go low on the confidence points and take the over.
TENNESSEE TITANS 33 @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 27 - This game could easily have more points scored in it. Both the starting QBs have been putting up excellent fantasy numbers and obviously Murray and Gore owners are not allowed to complain. The Titans' stronger run/pass attack, combined with a defense much more capable than Indy's, leaves a 'close, but not close enough', defeat for the home team. Take the Titans and the points, think low with confidence points and take the over, but don't go crazy with it.
BUFFALO BILLS 27 @ CINCINNATI BENGALS 31 - The Bengals will have a rebound game after their close loss against the Giants in week 10. They have all the pieces on both side of the ball to get the job done, yet lack consistency. Buffalo has the makings of a really good football team if they can get healthy. I like both defenses to keep it under control while the offense boxes the clown enough to combine for fifty-plus. The Bengals and the spread, low to mid confidence points and definitely take the over.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 37 @ CLEVELAND BROWNS 17 - The Steelers are angry and probably won't lose another consecutive game, especially since they're playing the Browns. On the other hand, they better not think the victory is a given and maintain their focus. If they can play to their strengths, Pittsburgh should keep the upper hand throughout the game and pull off a sizeable victory. Grab the Steelers and the spread, high confidence points and take the over.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 23 @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 29 - This is one of those games that I stay clear of as far as picking the spread. I have no problem picking KC just to win, but when points are concerned, I get a bad feeling when it comes to Jekyll/Hyde teams like Buffalo- they can put up a mountain of points one week and trip over their dreams the next. I would stay away from the spread but if was forced to choose, I'd take Tampa Bay and points. Low confidence and take the over.
BALTIMORE RAVENS 23 @ DALLAS COWBOYS 34 - This should be a good game with the Cowboys ending up pulling away, earning a hard fought win. I believe the play of the rookie stars, offense line and defense of Dallas will hold down the fort and and wrangle them a victory. Jeesh. The Ravens are too hot and cold for me when it comes to putting up big points so I'm taking the Cowboys and the spread, medium confidence points and take the over.
CHICAGO BEARS 13 @ NEW YORK GIANTS 31 - The Bears are the Browns of the NFC and the Giants are going to remind them of that. Their defense looked really good this past week against the Bengals and will be way too much for Jay Cutler and the rest of the Bears to handle. I'd take the Giants and the spread, high confidence points and take the over.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 23 @ DETROIT LIONS 30 - This game will be close with a lot of garbage time production on both ends if you can believe it. Both of these offenses are slow starters bit usually end up putting up decent production. I like the Lions at home. Stafford has some good weapons and isn't afraid to use them. The Jags are too streaky for me and I don't like the flow of their offense. I would take Jax and points on this one even though I think the Lions will win. Low to mid confidence and take the over.
ARIZONA CARDINALS 27 @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS 16 - I'd like to think that the Vikings have their act together after playing like garbage for the last few weeks, but regardless if they made some corrections, Arizona will be too much for them. The offense of the Cardinals has an identity, something Minnesota lacks. This will be the difference of the game. The Vikings' above average defense won't be able to score points for Sam Bradford and company. Safely take Arizona and the spread, high confidence points and stay away from the over/under.
MIAMI DOLPHINS 27 @ L.A. RAMS 20 - The Rams have a great defense... but that's about it. Miami is more of a complete team and should have no problem getting a win. Take Miami and the spread, low to mid fantasy points as well as the over.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 16 @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 30 - Russell Wilson is healthy and the Seahawks are rockin' out with their neon socks out. The one-two punch of Seattle's offense and defense will create confusion and bad decision making for the Eagles. Seahawks and the spread, high confidence points and the under.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 45 @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ers 20 - Tom Brady doesn't lose two games in a row and will probably make a statement this week against the Niners' crappy D. The Patriots' defense isn't perfect and will most likely give up some points, so that bodes well for making the over. Also go with New England and the spread and high confidence points.
GREEN BAY PACKERS 30 @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS 33 - I'm going against the grain on this one and taking the Redskins. The Packers' secondary has been awful and they just can't get it together as of late. Kirk Cousins and the rest of the kin folk are getting it done and look stronger and stronger every week. I would go with the Redskins and the points, low confidence and grab the over.
HOUSTON TEXANS 20 @ OAKLAND RAIDERS 34 - The Raiders have too much power for the Texans and even though defensive statements aren't made by the home team in Oakland, they should have no problem stifling the struggling play of Houston. Easily take the Raiders and the spread, medium confidence points and go with the over.