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At drinkfive, we like to think that trends of at least three games or more are something that should be a reliable indicator of future performance. That’s all fine and good, but how about we actually predict if the trends will continue or not and put our money (or beer in this case) where our mouth is.

Here are the predictions we made on last week’s show:

Tim Wright: Wk 9 vs DEN – 0.00 pts, Wk 11 @ IND – 6.20 pts, Wk 12 vs DET – 15.60 pts, Wk 13 @ GB – 1.20 pts

Dave has a rather specific prediction that says he will score between 6.1 and 8.0, I said under 6.1. Wright had just one target in an exciting game, netting him just 12 yards and no touchdowns. Wright is only played for his TD scoring (6 on the season) and really is only a last minute option. Dave drinks five for this one

Well, not so fast, just yet. Dave doubled down on this bet (double or nothing) for over 6.1 points for Wright. Well, Dave, I hope your beer is full, because Wright had 0.00 points on 2 targets. Drink five, then do it again!

Joe Flacco: Wk 10 vs TEN - 10.56 pts, Wk 12 @ NO - 13.92 pts, Wk 13 vs SD - 23.30 pts

Flacco hasn't been lighting up the world since his 5 TD game back in week 6, but his 23+ points against SD is the third time he's gone over 20 points this season. Flacco will go to Miami for Week 14, a team that is giving up the 2nd fewest points to opposing QB's. Flacco is clearly in the QB2 conversation, but does he need to be a sit this week? We will set the line at 14 points.

Both of us went under the line of 14 points for Flacco, and we’ll drink for this one. Flacco had an excellent fantasy day, throwing for 2 TD’s and rushing one in, he had his third best fantasy day of the season, putting up 25.36 points against the slipping Dolphins.

Mike Evans: Wk 11 vs ATL – 32.90 pts, Wk 12 @ CHI – 10.70 pts, Wk 13 vs CIN – 4.90 pts

Evans is a member of this year’s stellar WR rookie crop and was on his way to rookie of the year consideration for a while there. He scored 86.5 points in a 4 week stretch (9-12) and had 6 TD’s in that time. Last week he struggled, catching only 4 of 9 targets for 49 yards against the Bengals. This week it gets even harder, playing the Lions in Detroit. We’ll set Evans’s line at 11 points – can McCown get him the ball enough?

We agreed on this one as well, both of us going under 11 points for Evans. While he did struggle, catching on 4 of 11 targets, he managed to find the end zone twice, so his 4 for 45 and 2 TD line (16.50 points) is plenty to make us both drink this week.

DeSean Jackson: Wk 11 vs TB – 3.70 pts, Wk 12 @ SF – 3.90 pts, Wk 13 @ IND – 14.40 pts

Jackson is the victim of one of the more volatile QB situations in the league. The Redskins have had 3 starting QB’s this season, though it does appear that they will stick with Colt McCoy for the remainder of the season. This is good news for Jackson as he has 14 points per game when McCoy starts and he’s under 10 per game on average when he does not. This week, Jackson faces the Rams whom are giving up the 5^th most fantasy points to opposing WR’s. Can Jackson keep his trend going upward? We will set the line for him at 12 points.

We split on this line, Dave going under 12 and me going over. This one, however, doesn’t really count as DeSean Jackson wound up sitting out the game on Sunday against the Rams. Jackson’s status for Week 15 is still up in the air, so make sure you’re checking the news later in the week on him.

Jeremy Hill: Wk 11 @ NO - 16.50 pts, Wk 12 @ HOU - 15.60 pts, Wk 13 @ TB - 5.20 pts

Side note before we start, the Bengals just had 3 road games and won all 3 of them, a first in franchise history. Hill has been a big part of two of those wins, racking up over 30 points in the first two games, but only carrying the ball 13 times for 40 yards last week (3.1 ypc). That's quite disappointing, compared to the 4.9 ypc he had going into the game. Hill criticized the play calling, his OC promptly called him out, saying he needs to break more tackles and block better. Perhaps the fire has been lit under Hill's ass and he has a home game against the Steelers this Sunday to show he deserves time on the field instead of Giovani Bernard. We'll set the line for Hill at 10 this week, due to the Steelers only giving up 16 to opposing RB's and Gio getting back into the swing of things.

Hill was the choice in the Bengals backfield on Sunday, but the game got away from them once the fourth quarter came around. Hill ended the game with 6.7 points (8 for 46, 3 rec for 21) and that’s lower than the line we set at 10 points, which we both went over. Both of us drink, again!

Rashad Jennings: Wk 11 vs SF - 6.70 pts, Wk 12 vs DAL - 12.00 pts, Wk 13 @ JAX 21.40 pts

Jennings returned to the Giants lineup three weeks ago, and has been trending up ever since. His first game was shaky against the 49ers, but since then has been the RB2 you expected him to be. Andre Williams is basically irrelevant for fantasy purposes and all but being a goal line back for the Giants. Jennings will see the bulk of the work going forward, as his 26 carries in Jacksonville can attest. We'll set the line at 12 points for his Week 14 matchup in Tennessee.

I’m sensing a pattern here. Once again, we both went over and once again, we’re both wrong. Jennings had some injury issues crop up this week after we made our predictions, but he did play and finished the game with 2.20 points. Andre Williams started and was just fine against the worst run D in the league. So…We’ll drink our five and make sure to keep an eye on Jennings’s practice sessions this week ahead of his matchup with Washington.

Jason Witten: Wk 10 @ JAX - 9.30 pts, Wk 12 @ NYG - 9.00 pts, Wk 13 vs PHI - 0.80 pts

Tight Ends don't really seem to trend like QB/WR/RB, but let's give it a shot anyway. Witten has been a disappointment all season and while 30 yards and a TD in weeks 10 and 12 may seem acceptable, those are the 2nd and 3rd highest scoring weeks this season. Witten plays the "soft enough for a bear in the woods" Chicago Bears defense, so can we expect 9 points, or is he a definite sit?

Well, if there’s one trend, it’s that we were wrong about trends last week. Witten managed only 2.6 points in a great matchup against the Bears. His struggles to be the least bit relevant this year speak volumes and I think it’s safe to say that we’ve seen the end of the Jason Witten era in Dallas. We’ll drink for going under our predicted line and to Witten’s hall of fame career.

Finally, a bet where one of us was bound to win – because it was against each other. Dave bet that the Steelers would beat the Bengals, and while at the end of the 3^rd it looked like I might pull it out, the fourth quarter belonged entire to Le’Veon Bell and the Steelers. I’ll be providing the beers for tonight’s show, they’ll be good ones!

Now let’s change gears and look at some trends that we can see after week 14 and make some more predictions. Remember, for all the ones we get wrong, we will drink five on the podcast. For all the ones we get right, you guys drink!

Matt Ryan: Wk 12 vs CLE – 16.52 pts, Wk 13 vs ARI – 21.84 pts, Wk 14 @ GB – 32.30 pts

Matt Ryan finds himself in a nice position of symmetry. He’s currently the 8^th ranked QB in standard Yahoo leagues, and his ADP position was #8 in the preseason. He’s finally playing up to his expected level, but it’s only been a late run that has gotten him there. Ryan started off the season with 3 of 4 games over 20 points, but failed to reach the 20 point mark for the next 7 games. He’s gone over again the last two, so can his streak continue? Two things we look at: Is he your playoff starter the next two weeks (PIT, @NO) and will he score over 21 points in week 15.

Demaryius Thomas: Wk 12 vs MIA – 26.70 pts, Wk 13 @ KC – 12.30 pts, Wk 14 vs BUF – 1.10 pts

Right off the bat, let’s get one thing straight. Demaryius Thomas is a MF’n stud and he belongs in your lineup each week. He is here mostly to illustrate that all of the Denver skill players are on a downward trend, at least those associated with the passing game. Thomas is not, of course, matchup proof, mostly because WR’s are so reliant on their QB. Week 14 saw his season low in targets (5), receptions (2) and yards (11). Thomas had a 7 game streak over 100 yards in the middle of the season and now has only 161 yards in the last 3 games – his 4 td’s over that time really save his fantasy value. The question here is: Will Denver get back on track? Will Demaryius Thomas scoring over 14 points against the Chargers be the indicator that yes, he and his team are back where we expect them?

Malcom Floyd: Wk 12 vs STL – 3.00 pts, Wk 13 @ BAL – 8.50 pts, Wk 14 vs NE – 11.40 pts

It’s tough to pick a weekly receiver in the Chargers offense. It seems that no player is much more likely to go off than another guy, including Antonio Gates and last year’s phenom Keenan Allen. Floyd seemed to be the most recent flavor of the week, and did find the end zone against the Patriots and put up his second most points of the season. The problem here is that Floyd is very TD dependent, only making it into double digits when he finds pay dirt and has only made it over 100 yards receiving once this year. Is this a guy who is trending up that you want to count on the fantasy playoffs, or is this guy fantasy fool’s gold? He faces Denver in week 15 and we’ll set his line at 8.50 points.

Joique Bell: Wk 12 @ NE – 4.60 pts, Wk 13 vs CHI – 22.70 pts, Wk 14 vs TB – 25.30 pts

Bell has really excelled against poor opponents - all but one of his double digits games have come against below .500 teams. Luckily for Bell owners, he continues that through the fantasy playoffs, matching up against Minnesota this week and the Bears in week 16. Bell has seen no meaningful drop in his touches with Reggie Bush coming back, getting 23 touches just last week. With an easy matchup against the Vikings (the Jets ran for 168 yards against them on Sunday), it looks like Bell will continue trending up. We’ll set his line at a generously low 12 points (yahoo’s projection). If you think this line is too low, Bell has only gone over 12 points 4 times this season, so take that as you will.

Shane Vereen: Wk 12 vs DET – 6.00 pts, Wk 13 @ GB – 3.20 pts, Wk 14 @ SD – 3.10 pts

Vereen has all but disappeared in the Patriot’s backfield confusion. First Jonas Gray puts up a 40 spot, then he is essentially replaced by Blount who was basically kicked off the Steelers for pouting. We surmised that this would leave Vereen in a good situation as the Patriots typically love the short passing game, and he excels in that game. I suppose our error then lies with us assuming the Patriots will typically do anything. The ONLY thing you can count on from them is that Gronk will SMASH (either the opponent or his own bones). So, can you count on Vereen at all going forward, or does he belong on the bench barring any injuries to others in the New England backfield? We’ll set his over/under at 8 points against a Dolphins team that is in the middle of the pack when defending RB’s.

Make sure to listen to our podcast to get our predictions and discussion of the trends into week 15 and we will recap the results next week.

At drinkfive, we like to think that trends of at least three games or more are something that should be a reliable indicator of future performance. That’s all fine and good, but how about we actually predict if the trends will continue or not and put our money (or beer in this case) where our mouth is.

Here are the predictions we made on last week’s show:

Matt Ryan: Wk 12 vs CLE – 16.52 pts, Wk 13 vs ARI – 21.84 pts, Wk 14 @ GB – 32.30 pts

Matt Ryan finds himself in a nice position of symmetry. He’s currently the 8^th ranked QB in standard Yahoo leagues, and his ADP position was #8 in the preseason. He’s finally playing up to his expected level, but it’s only been a late run that has gotten him there. Ryan started off the season with 3 of 4 games over 20 points, but failed to reach the 20 point mark for the next 7 games. He’s gone over again the last two, so can his streak continue? Two things we look at: Is he your playoff starter the next two weeks (PIT, @NO) and will he score over 21 points in week 15.

Both of us said that Ryan would go over 21 points, and he did! 22.10 points total with 310 yards passing, 2 TD and 1 INT in the loss to PIT. I think most people expected a little better out of Ryan, but without the services of Julio Jones, you should be very happy with the 22 points he did get.

Demaryius Thomas: Wk 12 vs MIA – 26.70 pts, Wk 13 @ KC – 12.30 pts, Wk 14 vs BUF – 1.10 pts

Right off the bat, let’s get one thing straight. Demaryius Thomas is aMF’n stud and he belongs in your lineup each week. He is here mostly to illustrate that all of the Denver skill players are on a downward trend, at least those associated with the passing game. Thomas is not, of course, matchup proof, mostly because WR’s are so reliant on their QB. Week 14 saw his season low in targets (5), receptions (2) and yards (11). Thomas had a 7 game streak over 100 yards in the middle of the season and now has only 161 yards in the last 3 games – his 4 td’s over that time really save his fantasy value. The question here is: Will Denver get back on track? Will Demaryius Thomas scoring over 14 points against the Chargers be the indicator that yes, he and his team are back where we expect them?

Dave said he'd stay under 14 points, I said he'd go over 14. Seriously, Dave? You bet against Demaryius Thomas and you drink the consequences! Thomas had a ho-hum 6 receptions for 123 yards and 1 TD in the Broncos win at San Diego. While Peyton Manning didn't exactly light the world on fire, he is pointed back in the right direction and faces the Bengals on Monday night in week 16.

Malcom Floyd: Wk 12 vs STL – 3.00 pts, Wk 13 @ BAL – 8.50 pts, Wk 14 vs NE – 11.40 pts

It’s tough to pick a weekly receiver in the Chargers offense. It seems that no player is much more likely to go off than another guy, including Antonio Gates and last year’s phenomKeenan Allen. Floyd seemed to be the most recent flavor of the week, and did find the end zone against the Patriots and put up his second most points of the season. The problem here is that Floyd is very TD dependent, only making it into double digits when he finds pay dirt and has only made it over 100 yards receiving once this year. Is this a guy who is trending up that you want to count on the fantasy playoffs, or is this guy fantasy fool’s gold? He faces Denver in week 15 and we’ll set his line at 8.50 points.

Dave went with the over here, and I stayed under. Floyd had a typical game of 7 targets and 3 receptions, but he could only turn that into 34 yards and did not find the end zone. Floyd might have some increased value for week 16 as there have been whispers that Keenan Allen will land on the IR. Either way, the matchup with the 49ers is not a tempting one. Dave drinks five!

Joique Bell: Wk 12 @ NE – 4.60 pts, Wk 13 vs CHI –22.70 pts, Wk 14 vs TB – 25.30 pts

Bell has really excelled against poor opponents - all but one of his double digits games have come against below .500 teams. Luckily for Bell owners, he continues that through the fantasy playoffs, matching up against Minnesota this week and the Bears in week 16. Bell has seen no meaningful drop in his touches with Reggie Bush coming back, getting 23 touches just last week. With an easy matchup against the Vikings (the Jets ran for 168 yards against them on Sunday), it looks like Bell will continue trending up. We’ll set his line at a generously low 12 points (yahoo’s projection). If you think this line is too low, Bell has only gone over 12 points 4 times this season, so take that as you will.

We both said he'd go over 12 points, and while Bell had a decent game, he did not go over. His 62 yards on 15 carries and 4 receptions for 41 yards only nets him 10.30 points, which isn't bad for an RB2, but doesn't meet our projection, so we drink! Bell gets the Bears in Week 16, so fire him up against the most turbulent team in the league.

Shane Vereen: Wk 12 vs DET – 6.00 pts, Wk 13 @ GB – 3.20 pts, Wk 14 @ SD – 3.10 pts

Vereen has all but disappeared in the Patriot’s backfield confusion. First Jonas Gray puts up a 40 spot, then he is essentially replaced by Blount who was basically kicked off the Steelers for pouting. We surmised that this would leave Vereen in a good situation as the Patriots typically love the short passing game, and he excels in that game. I suppose our error then lies with us assuming the Patriots will typically do anything. The ONLY thing you can count on from them is that Gronk will SMASH (either the opponent or his own bones). So, can you count on Vereen at all going forward, or does he belong on the bench barring any injuries to others in the New England backfield? We’ll set his over/under at 8 points against a Dolphins team that is in the middle of the pack when defending RB’s.

Both of us went with the trend here (Dave actually did with every one of them) and technically, we win! Vereen had 5 rushing yards, a TD and 12 yards receiving. He's clearly not in the mix enough to be fantasy worthy, and his 7.70 points keep him just below the line we had set. His 7 total touches in this game make him a must-sit, even with a decent matchup against the Jets.

Finally, we bet on a bomber for the next show. I bet that my guy, Donte Moncrief, would score over 8 points. He finished the game with 0 points on 4 targets. Good times, drink up, Dave!

Now let’s change gears and look at some trends that we can see after week 14 and make some more predictions. Remember, for all the ones we get wrong, we will drink five on the podcast. For all the ones we get right, you guys drink!

Andrew Luck: Wk 13 vs WAS - 33.80 pts, Wk 14 @ CLE - 25.46 pts, Wk 15 vs HOU - 16.28 pts

It's the last week of fantasy football, so who cares about the little guys? We want to know about the best of the best, the guys who got us here! Luck has been trending down, technically. He's averaging just over 25 points per game on the season, and last week against a mediocre Houston defense, he only managed to get his team in the end zone twice on 13 possessions. This week he goes to Dallas, a team that needs this win a lot more than the Colts do. We'll set Luck's line at his average points for the season - 25 points.

Emmanuel Sanders: Wk 13 @ KC - 7.30 pts, Wk 14 vs BUF - 6.90 pts, Wk 15 @ SD - 5.30 pts

Sanders is another guy who you are generally starting if you have made it this far, but his numbers are starting to be alarming. Not only is he trending down, but he is consistently low while doing it. In fact, he's on a slow decent for the last 6 games. This may be proof that there actually isn't room for multiple receivers if the Broncos' passing game isn't firing on all cylinders. This is doubly true when the running game is working as well as it is right now. So, is this the Broncos finding another way to win that they're going to stick with, or are they going to bounce back somehow against the team that gives up the 2nd fewest points to opposing WR's. Sanders is averaging 12.5 per game this year and the Bengals give up about 17 pts per game to all WR's. Let's just set the line at our base we agreed upon last week of 10 points.

Odell Beckham Jr.: Wk 13 @ JAX - 9.40 pts, Wk 14 @TEN - 19.90 pts, Wk 15 vs WAS - 30.30 pts

Beckham is trending up, what a surprise. Let me take this moment to gush over his numbers. Over only 10 games, he has 71 receptions on 97 targets, catching 73.2% of the passes thrown his way. He has 972 yards and 9 touchdowns. This makes him the 2nd best player in terms of points per game (15.27). Beckham has been awesome this year, and while the Rams seem scary, their pass defense isn't that great. As long as Manning stays upright, Beckham should be ok. We'll set his target right as his average of 15 points.

Jeremy Hill: Wk 13 @ TB - 5.20 pts, Wk 14 vs PIT - 6.70 pts, Wk 15 @ CLE - 27.20 pts

Hill is a product of the work he gets, plain and simple. In 5 games with 15 or more carries, he has at least 15 points in all of those games. 1 point per touch is a damn nice average if you ask me. Hill is once again trending up after Giovani Bernard returned from injury, but was ineffective. It appears that Hill is slated to be the starter down the stretch, which should mean lots of work for him, but it's not guaranteed. 2 questions - Do you start him over Gio, and will he break his season average of 11 points?

Make sure to listen to our podcast to get our predictions and discussion of the trends into week 16 and we will recap the results next week.

Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking game scores, spreads and over/unders? Let me be that football wizard who has seen the prophecies of victory and has the ability to put your wagering soul at ease. In this column, I'll go over each match up and point out why I'm leaning a certain direction as well as predicting the point total. I will also tell you who I'd pick when it comes to point spreads and over/unders.

WEEK 11 PICKS:

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 34 @ CAROLINA PANTHERS 31 - I believe this game will be decided by a field goal with the underdog pulling out a road victory. Even though New Orleans' defense is flimsy, I just can't trust what the Panthers are selling me on a weekly basis. And how can you not trust Drew Brees? Division games come down to big plays and I think the Saints have more in the bank than Cam Newton and friends. So I'd take New Orleans and the points, go low on the confidence points and take the over.

TENNESSEE TITANS 33 @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 27 - This game could easily have more points scored in it. Both the starting QBs have been putting up excellent fantasy numbers and obviously Murray and Gore owners are not allowed to complain. The Titans' stronger run/pass attack, combined with a defense much more capable than Indy's, leaves a 'close, but not close enough', defeat for the home team. Take the Titans and the points, think low with confidence points and take the over, but don't go crazy with it.

BUFFALO BILLS 27 @ CINCINNATI BENGALS 31 - The Bengals will have a rebound game after their close loss against the Giants in week 10. They have all the pieces on both side of the ball to get the job done, yet lack consistency. Buffalo has the makings of a really good football team if they can get healthy. I like both defenses to keep it under control while the offense boxes the clown enough to combine for fifty-plus.  The Bengals and the spread, low to mid confidence points and definitely take the over.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS 37 @ CLEVELAND BROWNS 17 - The Steelers are angry and probably won't lose another consecutive game, especially since they're playing the Browns. On the other hand, they better not think the victory is a given and maintain their focus. If they can play to their strengths, Pittsburgh should keep the upper hand throughout the game and pull off a sizeable victory. Grab the Steelers and the spread, high confidence points and take the over.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 23 @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 29 - This is one of those games that I stay clear of as far as picking the spread. I have no problem picking KC just to win, but when points are concerned, I get a bad feeling when it comes to Jekyll/Hyde teams like Buffalo- they can put up a mountain of points one week and trip over their dreams the next. I would stay away from the spread but if was forced to choose, I'd take Tampa Bay and points. Low confidence and take the over.

BALTIMORE RAVENS 23 @ DALLAS COWBOYS 34 - This should be a good game with the Cowboys ending up pulling away, earning a hard fought win. I believe the play of the rookie stars, offense line and defense of Dallas will hold down the fort and and wrangle them a victory.  Jeesh. The Ravens are too hot and cold for me when it comes to putting up big points so I'm taking the Cowboys and the spread, medium confidence points and take the over.

CHICAGO BEARS 13 @ NEW YORK GIANTS 31 - The Bears are the Browns of the NFC and the Giants are going to remind them of that. Their defense looked really good this past week against the Bengals and will be way too much for Jay Cutler and the rest of the Bears to handle. I'd take the Giants and the spread, high confidence points and take the over.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 23 @ DETROIT LIONS 30 - This game will be close with a lot of garbage time production on both ends if you can believe it. Both of these offenses are slow starters bit usually end up putting up decent production. I like the Lions at home. Stafford has some good weapons and isn't afraid to use them. The Jags are too streaky for me and I don't like the flow of their offense. I would take Jax and points on this one even though I think the Lions will win. Low to mid confidence and take the over.

ARIZONA CARDINALS 27 @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS 16 - I'd like to think that the Vikings have their act together after playing like garbage for the last few weeks, but regardless if they made some corrections, Arizona will be too much for them. The offense of the Cardinals has an identity, something Minnesota lacks. This will be the difference of the game. The Vikings' above average defense won't be able to score points for Sam Bradford and company. Safely take Arizona and the spread, high confidence points and stay away from the over/under.

MIAMI DOLPHINS 27 @ L.A. RAMS 20 - The Rams have a great defense... but that's about it. Miami is more of a complete team and should have no problem getting a win. Take Miami and the spread, low to mid fantasy points as well as the over.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 16 @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 30 - Russell Wilson is healthy and the Seahawks are rockin' out with their neon socks out. The one-two punch of Seattle's offense and defense will create confusion and bad decision making for the Eagles. Seahawks and the spread, high confidence points and the under.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 45 @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ers 20 - Tom Brady doesn't lose two games in a row and will probably make a statement this week against the Niners' crappy D. The Patriots' defense isn't perfect and will most likely give up some points, so that bodes well for making the over. Also go with New England and the spread and high confidence points.

GREEN BAY PACKERS 30 @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS 33 - I'm going against the grain on this one and taking the Redskins. The Packers' secondary has been awful and they just can't get it together as of late. Kirk Cousins and the rest of the kin folk are getting it done and look stronger and stronger every week. I would go with the Redskins and the points, low confidence and grab the over.

HOUSTON TEXANS 20 @ OAKLAND RAIDERS 34 - The Raiders have too much power for the Texans and even though defensive statements aren't made by the home team in Oakland, they should have no problem stifling the struggling play of Houston. Easily take the Raiders and the spread, medium confidence points and go with the over.