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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Can you believe we’re already a month into the season? Time flies when you’re watching the Broncos in prime time every week. The first month of the season has been a messy one dominated by sloppy offensive football, injuries, and the Philadelphia Eagles. We’ve seen the ascension of several breakout rookies so far – Chris Olave, Breece Hall, Dameon Pierce, Romeo Doubs, Garrett Wilson – but there could be even more on the horizon. Several injured rookies are set to make their debuts in the next week or two. Bailey Zappe & Kenny Pickett will make their first starts this week. Tyquan Thornton and Brian Robinson Jr. are off IR and ready to take the field, and Greg Dulcich could be back next week.

The list of relevant rookies could be growing, and I’ll be here to break it down each week and help you sift through what to do with these players in your lineups. This week we’re talking more about the tight end position than usual as 4 rookies at the position had multiple catches last week. There’s plenty to discuss, so let’s get to it.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.

Let’s dive into week 5…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 5: vs. Sea.): Olave has been on an absolute roll in the last 3 weeks earning at least a 25% target share and 40% air yardage share in each week, and turned in finishes of WR33, WR6, and WR15 in those games. He wasn’t slowed down by Andy Dalton stepping in at QB in week 4, and with Michael Thomas ruled out for week 5 the rookie should keep operating as the clear WR1 for New Orleans. The Seahawks rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA, and have been especially susceptible to big pass plays, something we know the Saints look for with Olave. The Seahawks have allowed at least one completion of 30+ yards each week and have given up 2 of the five longest pass plays of the season thus far. Start Olave with confidence.

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 5: @TB): London had a down game in week 4, falling short of 12 PPR points for the first time last Sunday, but he topped a 30% target share for the 3^rd straight game and a 30% air yardage share for the 4^th straight game. His fantasy day fell victim to Arthur Smith deciding to “run the piss out of the ball” in the 2^nd half. Tampa Bay is a tough matchup for the rookie. The Bucs rank 3^rd in pass defense DVOA and allow the 13^th-fewest WR points per game. Negative game script should still be enough to get London back on track. Atlanta has trailed by more than 4 points in just one game this year, and London was targeted 12 times in that game. The Falcons are 8.5-point underdogs this week. Volume should give London a WR3 floor in this one, especially with Kyle Pitts ruled out.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Breece Hall, NYJ (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): The switch to Zach Wilson at QB did nothing to derail the red-hot start to the season for Hall. Breece posted his 3^rd-straight top-15 PPR finish and continued to establish himself as the clear RB1 in this backfield. He played 66% of the offensive snaps, handled 65% of the rushing attempts, and was in a route for 61% of Wilson’s dropbacks. The Jets threw the ball less with Wilson back – Flacco averaged 51.7 attempts per game, Wilson was at 36 in his debut – but no matter how the Jets choose to attack Hall is going to be heavily involved. The Dolphins have limited opposing running back production so far. They’ve allowed the 5^th-fewest RB points per game and rank 4^th in run defense DVOA, but I expect volume to keep Breece in the RB2 range this week. His usage would make him a weekly RB1 if he played in a good offense.

RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 5: @Jax.): I don’t know that I’d be able to convince you to sit Pierce if I tried after he put up 25.9 PPR points and finished as the RB5 for the week last weekend, especially considering that he caught 6 passes in the process. The biggest knock on Pierce has been his lack of passing game usage (he totaled 4 targets in the first 3 weeks), and it appears he may be on track to overcoming that. I’d still advise a little caution before going all-in on Pierce. Rex Burkhead was still on the field on almost all the long down & distance snaps and 2-minute offense snaps in week 4, and the Texans are going to continue to be underdogs just about every week. Pierce’s 6 receptions may be a mirage, and he wasn’t very efficient with those catches (8 receiving yards). Pierce benefitted from Houston not abandoning the run when they fell behind against the Chargers, but the Chargers are MUCH easier to attack on the ground than through the air. There will be weeks where they fall behind against teams that are tougher to run against and they abandon it. The Jaguars have allowed the 8^th-most RB points per game, so Pierce is still a solid option this week, but be aware that Jacksonville has allowed the 7^th-fewest rushing yards and ranks 12^th in run defense DVOA. I wouldn’t start Pierce over any of your true studs, but he’s certainly still a top-24 option this week.

WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): On the surface, Wilson’s week 4 stat line was pretty disappointing. Just 2 catches for 41 yards on 6 targets. Those were season lows across the board, and they coincided with the return of starting QB Zach Wilson. If you’ve been starting Garrett Wilson all year, you’re probably pretty concerned that Zach Wilson could be a problem for him, but the underlying numbers give me reasons for optimism. Week 4 was the first time all season that Wilson had a higher route participation rate than Corey Davis, and his 6 targets tied for the team lead. Week 4 was also the first time this year the Jets held a lead at any point prior to the last 30 seconds of a game. The lower passing volume wasn’t just because of the QB change. It was because the game script was more positive. Those bigger pass volume games will still happen with Zach at QB. Zach’s inefficiency last week wasn’t ideal, but I’d expect improvement there as well as he gets more comfortable. For this week’s matchup, the Dolphins rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 5^th-most WR points per game, and the Jets are 3.5-point underdogs. The offense should be throwing, and Garrett Wilson has WR2 upside and has a 6-target floor.

WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 5: vs. NYG): After back-to-back weeks of a 95% route participation rate, I’m ready to declare Doubs at least the WR2 on this football team. He’s earned 8 targets and found the end zone in each of those two games as well, but he also fumbled in each game and dropped what would’ve been a game-winning TD late in regulation last weekend. The Packers still eventually won the game. I wouldn’t get too hung up on the miscues after Green Bay didn’t bench him after them. This offense still runs through the running backs, but Doubs should continue to see at least 6-8 weekly targets while Sammy Watkins is on IR, and probably beyond that. The Giants have allowed the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game, but they rank just 23^rd in pass defense DVOA. The Packers should have success throwing the ball, and Doubs is a solid WR3 option again this week.

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 5: @Buf.): Pickens may be the biggest beneficiary of the Steelers QB switch from Mitch Trubisky to Kenny Pickett. Pickens has been a full-time player all year, but he and Trubisky had struggled to forge much of a connection. The targets were finally coming around in weeks 3 & 4, but the pair connected just 5 times for 70 yards on 11 targets in those 2 games, with 3 of those catches going for 5 yards or fewer. Enter Kenny Pickett in the second half Sunday. Pickett delivered the exact same target share to Pickens that Trubisky did in that game (4 targets on 13 pass attempts), but all 4 of Pickett’s attempts were connections. They totaled 71 yards, and only 1 of the 4 completions went for fewer than 10 yards. Pickett could be the QB that unlocks Pickens. Diontae Johnson is still the #1 receiver here, and the Bills allow the 5^th-fewest WR points per game, but I think there is serious upside for the rookie on Sunday. The Bills are missing safety Jordan Poyer and cornerback Christian Benford for this game, and their two perimeter CB starters will be rookie Kaiir Elam and 2^nd-year pro Dane Jackson. Neither player represents a matchup that you should be scared of. Pickens has a low floor, but his upside makes him a viable WR3/4 option for this game. At the very least, he shouldn’t be available on your league’s waiver wire.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 5: @TB): Falcons’ starting RB Cordarrelle Patterson was placed on IR this week, and Allgeier is the next man up in this backfield, but this is a brutal matchup and Allgeier isn’t the only other back on this team. The Bucs have allowed the 3^rd-fewest RB points per game this season, and only CEH has scored 7+ fantasy points against them at the position on the year. Allgeier carried 10 times last week with C-Patt missing most of the 2^nd half, and Caleb Huntley matched those 10 carries in that game. Avery Williams has also had a role on passing downs, and Damien Williams could return from IR in the next couple weeks. That’s a lot of names that could be involved in this offense. This likely remains enough of a committee in Cordarrelle’s absence that Allgeier should only be trusted in plus matchups, and this week’s matchup is not a good one.

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 5: vs. Atl.): White set season-highs in snap share and targets in week 4 as the Bucs played from behind all night against the Chiefs last Sunday. It’s an open question whether that’s a sign of things to come or was simply a matter of game flow. If his role is indeed growing, the Falcons represent a great matchup since they rank 26^th in run defense DVOA, but White’s easiest path to production is through receiving work, and Atlanta does a good job of limiting that. The Falcons have allowed the 8^th-fewest receptions and 5^th-fewest receiving yards to opposing running backs. For White to have a productive game in week 5, he’s going to need garbage time carries. That’s possible with the Bucs favored by 10 points, but it’s always hard to bank on that for a fantasy lineup.

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 5: vs. LV): Through the season’s first 4 weeks, we’ve seen Pacheco reach 11 carries and 60+ rushing yards twice now, but both of those were games where the Chiefs played from comfortably ahead all day. Only 8 of Pacheco’s 28 carries for the season have come in situations where Kansas City wasn’t ahead by double-digits. Of course, there’s a reasonable chance the Chiefs spend considerable time this week ahead by multiple scores. They’re 7-point favorites against the Raiders. Your confidence in whether Pacheco sees 10+ touches should be based on your confidence that KC plays from ahead. Even if he gets that kind of workload, 10-12 carries against a middling run defense like the Raiders (16^th in run defense DVOA) makes him just a fringe RB3 at best. If you’re in leagues that count return yardage, you may be excited by Pacheco’s 90+ kick return yards each of the last two weeks, but more than 70% of kickoffs by Raiders’ kicker Daniel Carlson this season have resulted in touchbacks.

RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 5: vs. Ten.): Robinson is in line to return in week 5 after being shot twice in the preseason. He was slated to be the starter before landing on the non-football injury list, and he should immediately be part of the running back rotation, but it remains to be seen how big of a role he’ll play in his debut. It’s been reported that he’ll be on a pitch count, and the Titans are much better at defending the run than the pass. The Titans allow the 13^th-fewest RB points per game and rank 8^th in run defense DVOA. I’d wait and see how Robinson looks before getting him into lineups.

RB Kenneth Walker III (Wk. 5: @NO): Walker saw an uptick in usage last Sunday with Travis Homer on IR, but he’s still a distant second to Rashaad Penny on the depth chart. KW3 is yet to see 10+ touches in any game this year, and the Saints have allowed the 6^th-fewest running back points per game. This isn’t a matchup where you should be hoping for production on limited touches for Walker.

WR Kyle Philips, TEN (Wk. 5: @Was.): Philips returned from injury last week but was on the field for just two offensive snaps. He could have a big opportunity on Sunday with teammate Treylon Burks sidelined by a turf toe injury. Phillips led the team with 9 targets and 66 receiving yards as the primary slot receiver in week 1 before getting hurt, and the Commanders have allowed the 2^nd-most PPR points to slot receivers per Sports Info Solutions. The big question is will he go back to that same role this week with Burks out? I’m not convinced he will yet.

WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 5: vs. NYG): Watson made his first trip into the end zone last week on a designed run play, but his route participation rate continued to trend in the wrong direction, He was in a route for just 18% of Aaron Rodgers’ dropbacks. Green Bay has made a point to get the ball into Watson’s hands when he’s on the field, but he just isn’t getting onto the field enough to be in lineups. He hasn’t touched the ball more than 3 times in a game this season.

TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 5: @GB): Bellinger has some sneaky upside this week with the Giants running with a skeleton crew at wide receiver. His playing time remains too low (he’s yet to reach 50% route participation this season), but he’s seen his target per route run and overall target share increase each and every week. He’s a good bet for 5+ targets this week in London, but I wouldn’t bet on big production against a Green Bay defense that ranks 9^th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 4^th-fewest tight end points per game.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 5: @Buf.): The Steelers had finally seen enough of Mitch Trubisky in week 4 after the team failed to get into the red zone and scored just 6 first half points against the lowly New York Jets. They turned to Pickett for the second half, and the final stats were wild. The Rookie completed 10-of-13 passes for 120 yards and 3 interceptions, including one on his first career attempt. Every one of his passes was caught by someone, but far too many were caught by the opponent. Despite the turnovers, Pickett did have success moving the ball and tallied 2 rushing TDs and gave the Steelers a chance to win the game. Pittsburgh would be wise to let him keep playing, but the matchup could not be worse for week 5. Through 4 games the Bills have faced the following lineup of QBs - Matt Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, Tua, and Lamar Jackson – and allowed fewer fantasy points per game to them than Justin Fields & Mitch Trubisky have averaged this season. Good QBs are dicey options against this defense. A rookie making his first career start could have a nightmarish day.

QB Skylar Thompson, MIA (Wk. 5: @NYJ): Tua Tagovailoa will sit out this week with a concussion, but it’ll be Teddy Bridgewater who gets the start, not Thompson. Skylar is one injury away from getting playing time against a bad defense, but if things go as planned for Miami, Thompson won’t take a snap.

RB Trestan Ebner, CHI (Wk. 5: @Min.): Ebner continues to play a complementary role to Khalil Herbert with David Montgomery sidelined. It’s just not a big enough role for him to have fantasy relevance given how little the Bears throw the ball. Minnesota is a plus matchup for running backs, coughing up the 5^th-most points per game to the position, but Ebner has yet to reach 30 scrimmage yards in a game, and anything over that mark against the Vikings should be considered a bonus.

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 5: @Buf.): Different week, same story for Warren. He’s purely a handcuff to Najee and doesn’t really have standalone value for now, especially against a daunting Buffalo defense in a game where the Steelers are 2-touchdown underdogs.

RB Jordan Mason, SF (Wk. 5: @Car.): Tyrion Davis-Price remains out this week, and Mason has played just 5 offensive snaps in the last two weeks. This backfield belongs to Jeff Wilson Jr. at least until TDP returns with Deebo Samuel operating as the change-of-pace back.

WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 5: vs. LV): We finally saw Kansas City start to make good on promises to get Skyy Moore involved in the offense last weekend, as the rookie had his highest route participation (25%) and target total (4) of the season. Those numbers should continue to climb as the season goes on since MVS and Mecole Hardman have predictably underwhelmed, but his playing time isn’t quite to a level where you can consider him for lineups.

WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. LAC): The Browns still don’t throw the ball enough to support more than a couple pass catchers, and Bell remains too far down the depth chart to be one of those. He may need an injury ahead of him to have any value before Deshaun Watson returns.

WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 5: @Min.): Jones was active for the first time in week 4, and he played zero offensive snaps. There’s nothing here for now.

WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL (Wk. 5: @LAR): With Michael Gallup back from IR it’s an open question when Tolbert will be active for a game again. He’s been inactive for 3 of the first 4 contests, and Gallup’s return makes it even harder for the rookie to carve out a role.

WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 5: @GB): Wan’Dale is getting closer to returning to the lineup and having some sleeper value, but he’s trending toward being inactive again in week 5. The Giants desperately need WR help right now, but Robinson doesn’t look likely to deliver that help this week. He has a chance to be a PPR maven once he’s able to get back on the field.

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. Ten.): If you missed the news, Dotson is expected to be out a week or two with a hamstring injury. This would be a great matchup for the rookie if he were to play, but it’s a moot point with him ruled out.

WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 5: @Was.): Like Dotson on the other side of this matchup, Burks will be sidelined for week 5 after being carted off with a turf toe injury last weekend. He was originally listed as doubtful, and was moved to IR later in the week.  

TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): McBride is worth monitoring in the coming weeks after he finally saw his first passing game action in week 4. He played a season-high 42% of the offensive snaps and pulled in 3 catches on 3 targets for 24 yards as the Cardinals used 2 tight end sets more often than they had in previous weeks. It’s a promising development, but I wouldn’t plug him into any lineups just yet. The Eagles are in the top-12 at limiting TE points and rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA. If McBride’s usage this week is similar or better to what we saw in week 4, he’s going to be a sneaky option against the Seahawks in week 6. Seattle allows the most TE points per game. Things will get dicey for his usage again after week 6 when DeAndre Hopkins returns from suspension.

TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 5: @Was.): Okonkwo had a surprising 3-38-1 line last weekend against the Colts after seeing just 1 target in the first 3 weeks, but don’t be fooled into thinking you can plug him into lineups if you’re desperate. Okonkwo was still in a route on fewer than 20% of Ryan Tannehill’s dropbacks in that game and was on the field for just 13 offensive snaps. Maybe that role grows in the coming weeks (especially now that Treylon Burks is on IR), but you’re just praying for a TD if you plug the rookie into any lineups this week. The Commanders have allowed just 1 tight end score in the first 4 weeks.

TEs Peyton Hendershot & Jake Ferguson, DAL (Wk. 5: @LAR): With Dalton Schultz back in action Sunday, the rookie duo combined for 21 offensive snaps and just one target in week 4. Move along.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Bailey Zappe, NE (Wk. 5: vs. Det.): Zippin’ Bailey Zappe became the first rookie QB to throw a touchdown pass this season, and he’s in line for his first career start this week with Mac Jones still battling an ankle sprain and Brian Hoyer on IR with a concussion. There is no softer landing spot he could draw for that first start than facing the Detroit Lions. The Lions have allowed the most QB fantasy points per game and rank an abysmal 28^th in pass defense DVOA. Zappe’s throws look like they have less zip on them than you see from some high school QBs, but he was highly efficient at Western Kentucky last year, throwing for nearly 6,000 yards and 62 TDs in 14 games. Zappe has the upside to be a high-end QB2 this week.

RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 5: vs. Pit.): Cook hasn’t seen the field or the ball much in the last two weeks, but that could change against the Steelers on Sunday. The Bills are two-touchdown favorites in this game, and the last time they won in a blowout Cook led the backfield with 11 touches and 53 scrimmage yards. Most of those touches came in the 4^th quarter in garbage time, but that same kind of garbage time might exist in this game. Cook could see additional passing game work early on as well. Gabe Davis is playing through an ankle injury, and both slot receivers could be in week 5. Jamison Crowder broke his ankle and Isaiah McKenzie suffered a concussion last Sunday. Crowder is out indefinitely, and McKenzie is questionable. Tight end Dawson Knox has also been ruled out for this game. If McKenzie sits, there will be some receiving opportunities up for grabs, some of which could go to Cook. It’s impossible to rely on garbage time production in season-long leagues but Cook costs just $1,400 in DraftKings Showdown contests.

WR Khalil Shakir, BUF (Wk. 5: vs. Pit.): As I mentioned above with James Cook, the Bills could be missing both of their top-2 slot receivers and their tight end on Sunday against a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed the 4^th-most PPR points to slot receivers this year per Sports Info Solutions. Shakir would likely be the guy who steps into the slot role if McKenzie is out. Crowder and McKenzie have averaged a combined 8.5 targets per game. Shakir has a realistic shot at 5-6 targets in this one, and there is value in that in a plus matchup with Josh Allen throwing him the ball.

WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 5: vs. Det.): In deeper leagues there’s a chance Thornton was forgotten about after he suffered a broken collarbone in the preseason. He’s worth a stash in those leagues if he’s still available. Thornton made a speedier than expected recovery from the injury and has been activated from IR ahead of week 5. It’s hard to trust a Bill Belichick drafted wide receiver, but Thornton ran a blazing 4.28-second 40-yard dash at the combine and has serious big play upside. I’d expect him to be eased in after missing so much time, but he’s worth picking up in deeper leagues. No one beyond Jakobi Meyers has proven to be irreplaceable in this WR group.

TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 5: vs. Cin.): Likely is coming off a zero-target game in week 4, but his playing time has remained fairly steady this season (20-26 snaps played each game) and the Ravens will be without Rashod Bateman this week. With Bateman out, Likely should be the 3^rd option in the passing game behind Mark Andrews and Devin Duvernay. The Bengals are a middling TE defense (19^th-most points allowed per game to TEs), but there is an opportunity for Likely to have his best game to-date as a pro.

TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 5: vs. Atl.): Cam Brate has been ruled out with a concussion, and Otton is in line to start in his place against the Falcons, who allow the 3^rd-most TE points per game. Otton garnered 4 targets on Sunday night against the Chiefs with Brate banged up. Don’t get too carried away here. There are game script concerns that could limit overall passing volume. Tom Brady has averaged 47 passing attempts in Tampa’s two losses this season and 30.5 attempts in their wins. Otton could be in line for 4+ catches if this game stays competitive.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you pick up a W in week 5. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re more than a third of the way through the fantasy regular season, and by now you should have a pretty good idea of how your team stacks up. You should know your strengths and weaknesses, and what positions you need more production out of. Unfortunately, thanks to some byes and a plethora of injuries around the league you might be limited in your options to fix those positions in week 6. Jonathan Taylor, James Conner, and Damien Harris have all been ruled out at running back. Other players who remain questionable or out include Rashod Bateman, Kadarius Toney, Kyle Pitts, Chris Olave, Julio Jones, Tee Higgins, Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, and Keenan Allen. It's a little messy out there in week 6, and that means you may have to turn to a rookie to fill in somewhere, and I’m here to guide you through that. Always take into account the context of your league and your roster before applying what’s written below, but there are plenty of rookies to get into for week 6.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.

Let’s jump into week 6…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Breece Hall, NYJ (Wk. 6: @GB): Don’t let the two goal-line scores by Michael Carter fool you. Breece Hall is dominating this backfield. Hall has 35 carries in the last two weeks compared to just 19 for Carter, and he’s bested Carter in route participation by more than 20% in each game as well. He looks like he’s going to push for 20 touches weekly going forward, and the Packers rank a lowly 30^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA and allow the 17^th-most RB points per game. This is not a matchup to fear. Hall is a rock-solid RB2 with an upside for more in Green Bay.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 6: vs. Ari.): If you had the foresight to stash Kenneth Walker on your fantasy rosters this season, Rashaad Penny’s broken tibia may have unlocked a potential league-winner on your fantasy squad. You don’t want to celebrate an injury, but Walker should assume the early-down role that Penny was playing and his usage hints that there could be even more upside for KW3. Rashaad Penny was used in passing routes often, but he was rarely targeted. He had a 42% route participation rate on the season but was targeted on just 7% of his routes run. Walker has been targeted on 23% of his routes run for the season, the highest rate of any Seattle running back. If that continues as his playing time increases, Walker could end up being a top-12 RB the rest of the way. I’d expect DeeJay Dallas to continue handling the passing-down work for now, but it’s not guaranteed. Arizona boasts a slightly above-average run defense (12th in run defense DVOA, 12^th-fewest RB points per game allowed), but rushing volume should make Walker a top-20 RB option in this one.

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 6: vs. SF): I got comfortable enough to call London an auto-start the last two weeks, and he responded with back-to-back duds of 3.7 and 7.5 PPR points in those two games. Head Coach Arthur Smith loves to destroy the dreams of fantasy players, but I’m going back to the well here and saying I like London in week 6. The 49ers will be without Emmanuel Moseley and Jimmy Ward for the foreseeable future, and they also may have Kyle Pitts to contend with. That should open things up enough for London to get back on track in what looks like a tough matchup on paper. London is a top-24 WR option for me this week.

WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 6: vs. NYJ): Doubs continues to operate as the Packers’ WR2. Over the last 3 weeks, he’s averaged about a 90% route participation rate and 7 targets per game since emerging as a starter. The targets last week found their way to Randall Cobb rather than Romeo, but I’d expect there to be a better balance this week. The Packers have an implied total of 27 points this week and Doubs should be back in the 6-8 target range against a defense that ranks 23^rd in pass defense DVOA. He should be a reasonable WR3 player this week.

WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 6: vs. Cin.): Olave is listed as questionable for this game, and I would’ve bet against Olave being able to clear the concussion protocol in time for this game after seeing the way the light went out of his eyes when his head hit the turf last weekend, but he was listed as a full participant in practice on Friday. If he can get cleared and play this weekend, he has obvious upside in an offense that will still be without Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry, but the Bengals are a tough matchup. Cincy has allowed the 4^th-fewest WR points per game and has allowed only two receivers to reach a dozen points (half-PPR) all season. If he plays, view Olave as a volume-based WR3.

WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 6: vs. Jax.): The Colts seemed to find something last week with Pierce. The rookie out-targeted Michael Pittman for the first time, and Matt Ryan looked for him in clutch situations, targeting Pierce 3 times on third down and twice on 2^nd down with more than 10 yards to go. His route participation rate climbed to a season-high 74% in that game, and he now has 3 straight games where he’s been targeted on at least a quarter of his routes run. Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines have both already been ruled out for this one, and last week with both players out Matt Ryan had his second-highest pass attempt total of the season despite a very neutral game script. The Jaguars have been tough to throw on, allowing the 12^th-fewest WR points per game and ranking 9^th in pass defense DVOA, but the absence of the running backs is enough for me to push Pierce up to a fringe WR3/4 for this week. I like his chances at 70+ receiving yards on Sunday.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 6: vs. TB): Pickett’s situation for week 6 isn’t much different than it was for week 5. He faces an elite pass defense in a game where he should be playing from behind and throwing a bunch. The Bucs rank 1^st in pass defense DVOA. Pickett did throw for over 300 yards last week on over 50 attempts and finished as the QB19 despite not throwing a touchdown, but his prospects aren’t much better for this one. I’d view him as a volume-based QB2 but would slide him down the rankings a bit in leagues with stiffer penalties for turnovers or sacks taken, and I’d look at other options if I were considering Pickett in a 1-QB league.

QB Bailey Zappe, NE (Wk. 6: @Cle.): Zappe was extremely efficient in his first pro start, carving up the Detroit Lions in an easy win. He completed more than 80% of his passes, and his only turnover came on a dropped pass that turned into a pick. That efficiency didn’t lead to much fantasy production. The rookie was the QB25 for the week. It looks like Mac Jones may be able to return this week, but if he doesn’t and it’s Zappe again, I’d expect similar results – a low-volume, efficient passing effort that won’t help you a ton for fantasy. The Browns haven’t allowed any of the last 3 QBs they’ve faced to top 15 fantasy points, a list that includes Justin Herbert last week.

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 6: vs. SF): Allgeier operated as the clear RB1-A in this backfield last week with Cordarrelle Patterson on IR, but he wasn’t a great fantasy play against a stout Bucs defense. He was limited to just 45 yards on 13 carries and didn’t see a single target. He gets another tough defensive matchup this week. The 49ers rank 1^st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 3^rd-fewest running back points per game. His role also could look slightly different this week with the potential return of Damien Williams from IR. I’d look for options with more upside this week.

RB Jaylen Warren. PIT (Wk. 6: vs. TB): Warren has been getting buzz as a hot waiver name this week, but I wouldn’t plug him into lineups against the Bucs. Najee Harris’ Lisfranc injury from the preseason seems to still be lingering. He hasn’t looked like himself in recent weeks. It would probably behoove the Steelers to give Harris a game or two off to get right, but the more likely outcome is that they’ll just reduce his weekly workload and give more of it to Warren. Warren has shown more burst and looked better than Harris in the last couple games, but a split workload doesn’t make him a good option this week against a Tampa defense that allows the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game.

WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 6: @GB): Don’t be afraid to play Wilson this week if you must, but the change to Zach Wilson at QB has been a problem for the rookie. The Jets aren’t throwing as much with Zach back under center, so Wilson is seeing fewer targets, but what’s even more troubling is that he’s seeing shorter targets. Wilson earned 11 targets per game in Joe Flacco’s three starts with an aDOT of 9.8 yards. In two games with Zach Wilson, Garrett has earned 10 total targets with an aDOT of 6.5 yards. There’s reason for optimism against the Packers. The Jets should be forced to throw a little more as a 7-point underdog, and Green Bay has been more vulnerable to slot receivers than guys on the perimeter. They’ve allowed the 4th-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers lined up out wide and the 12^th-most to receivers lined up in the slot per Sports Info Solutions. Wilson is the Jets’ primary slot receiver. There’s upside here, but I’d view Garrett as more of a WR4 than a WR3 this week.

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 6: vs. TB): I talked last week about how the switch to Kenny Pickett at QB in Pittsburgh could be a boost for Pickens, and it was nice to see that come to fruition as Pickens went for 6-83 on 8 targets in Buffalo, but I’m not sure I’d go back to the well this week. Game script should be negative, and the Steelers should be throwing often, but the Bucs present a much stiffer test at CB than the Bills did. Buffalo has been making do with inexperienced corners by playing a lot of zone defense and defending as a team. The Bucs have proven studs Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean starting at corner. They’ve allowed fewer than 8 points per game to receivers lined up on the perimeter per Sports Info Solutions, and Pickens has been lined up in the slot on less than 8% of his snaps this year. Volume can still get Pickens to a useful day against the Bucs, but it could be tougher sledding this week than it was against the Bills and Jets for the rookie.

WR Khalil Shakir, BUF (Wk. 6: @KC): Shakir was impressive in his first extended action of the season, racking up 3-75-1 on 5 targets, but Isaiah McKenzie has cleared the concussion protocol and should assume a full-time slot role this week. McKenzie was splitting the role with Jamison Crowder prior to the injury, but Crowder suffered a broken ankle and will be out indefinitely. There’s a chance Shakir takes some of that slot workload, but I wouldn’t count on him getting enough opportunity to be useful this week.

TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. Bal.): Bellinger’s playing time has been steadily rising each week, and he scored his second touchdown of the season in London last weekend, but he still hasn’t topped 4 touches in a game this year and the return of Wan’Dale Robinson could make it harder for Bellinger to earn targets. The Ravens haven’t been great against tight ends, allowing the 15^th-most points per game to the position, but the biggest reason for that is they’ve allowed 3 tight end touchdowns. They’re giving up less than 40 yards per game to the position. You’re likely to be disappointed in Bellinger’s game unless he scores a touchdown, and the Giants’ implied total is below 20 points in this one.

TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 6: @Pit.): Cam Brate’s injury opened the door for Otton to play a full-time role in week 6, and he earned 7 targets en route to a top-12 PPR finish for the week. Cam Bratehas been practicing in full this week, so Otton will return to his backup role this weekend. You can’t start him in this one.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 6: vs. Buf.): Pacheco’s trend of not playing much unless the Chiefs win comfortably continued in week 5. Pacheco now has 11+ carries in both games that Kansas City won by double-digits, and 6 total touches in the other 3 games combined. This game is very unlikely to be a blowout win, so I’d lean against considering Pacheco.

RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 6: @KC): As expected, Cook got a couple of opportunities late in a blowout last weekend. He managed to post a 24-yard touchdown run in the 2^nd half in his best fantasy day of the season so far. To date, more than 70% of Cook’s touches have come in the two games the Bills won by 34+ points. His role will likely grow as the season goes on, but Devin Singletary typically dominates the backfield work in competitive games, and this week’s tilt with the Chiefs should be very competitive. I wouldn’t expect more than a few touches for Cook.

RBs Tyrion Davis-Price & Jordan Mason, SF (Wk. 6: @Atl.): Mason has been a non-factor in this offense even with the injuries to Elijah Mitchell and Davis-Price, but Davis-Price in expected to return this week in a good matchup against a Falcons’ defense that ranks 27^th in run defense DVOA. Unfortunately for TDP, Jeff Wilson Jr. has been great in his absence and there may not be much of a role to return to. Davis-Price nearly split the workload evenly with Wilson in week 2, but I’d expect much closer to an 80-20 split here.

WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 6: vs. Buf.): It’s coming for Moore, but we’re not there yet. The snaps have increased in each of the last two weeks for the rookie while Mecole Hardman’s playing time heads in the other direction. It’s only a matter of time before he’s operating as Kansas City’s WR3. For now, continue to monitor his role with him on your bench. The Bills rank 6^th in pass defense DVOA and allow the 5^th-fewest WR points per game.

WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 6: @Cle.): Thornton made his debut in week 5 and played a bigger role in his first game back than I anticipated. He had a higher route participation rate than Nelson Agholor or DeVante Parker, but that was because of a blowout win and a hamstring injury to Agholor that sidelined the veteran after just 7 snaps. I’d expect Thornton to operate as the WR4 this week even if Agholor is out. His best hope at fantasy production would be hauling in a deep ball, but the Pats lack a QB who throws the deep ball well.

WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 6: vs. NYJ): Watson is yet to exceed a 30% route participation rate or 3 touches in any game this season. He did exit in the 3^rd quarter of the London game with a hamstring injury, but he had just 1 target and 1 carry by that point of the game. He’s questionable for week 6, and not playing enough to be in your lineups if he’s able to suit up. Update: Watson has been ruled out for week 6.

WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 6: vs. NE): Bell has totaled just 6 targets in the first 5 games. He remains someone you can’t start until at least the return of Deshaun Watson.

WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL (Wk. 6: @Phi.): Tolbert has now been inactive for 4 of the Cowboys first 5 games, and there’s no reason to think he won’t make it 5 of 6 this week.

TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 6: @Sea.): It pains me to say that you have to sit McBride in the best possible tight-end matchup. He just isn’t playing enough to be anything more than a touchdown dart throw despite the rosy matchup. The Seahawks have allowed season-high fantasy days to 7 different tight ends in their 5 games – Andrew Beck, Albert Okwuegbunam, Ross Dwelley, Kyle Pitts, TJ Hockenson, Taysom Hill, and Adam Trautman. If giving up over 35 points to TJ Hockenson wasn’t bad enough in week 4, the Seahawks let a tight end throw a TD pass to another tight end in week 5 (Taysom Hill to Trautman). Any tight end who suits up against Seattle is bound to have their best day of the season, but for McBride that could mean 6 PPR points. It’ll be a bonus if he’s on the field for even 30% of the offensive snaps this week.

TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 6: @NYG): The absence of Rashod Bateman last week didn’t result in a boost in usage or production for Likely. In fact, Likely played his lowest snap share and saw his lowest route participation rate of the season last Sunday. You can’t count on him for anything more than a couple of targets in this game if that.

TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 6: vs. Jax.): Woods has been in the 25-30% route participation range in each of the last 3 weeks. He scored 2 touchdowns in week 3, but he’s seen just 2 targets total in the two weeks since. He’s a TD dart throw at best, and the Jaguars haven’t allowed a tight end score yet this season.

TEs Peyton Hendershot & Jake Ferguson, DAL (Wk. 6: @Phi.): Dalton Schultz left after just 10 snaps last week when he aggravated his sprained PCL, but it sounds like he’s expected to play in week 7. Hendershot and Ferguson split the snaps pretty evenly after Schultz’s exit, but neither recorded a single target. Even if Schultz is out this week, neither of these guys would be worth a dart throw against a defense ranking 3^rd in pass defense DVOA.

Rookies on Byes in week 6: RB Dameon Pierce, HOU, RB Zamir White, LV, WRs Kyle Philips and Treylon Burks, TEN, TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes & Cheap DFS Options:

QB Skylar Thompson, MIA (Wk. 6: vs. Min.): Thompson was less than inspiring in his NFL debut last weekend, posting just 166 passing yards and two turnovers, but the Dolphins coaching staff saw enough to name him the starter for this weekend without waiting on the statuses of Teddy Bridgewater and TuaTagovailoa, and I like his chances for a bounce back. Thompson will get first-team reps all week in practice, he has explosive weapons, and the Vikings are in the bottom third of the league in passing yards allowed and passer rating against, and rank 26^th in pass defense DVOA. Minnesota has only given up 4 passing touchdowns in the first 5 weeks, but they’ve been vulnerable against the pass. I also like Thompson’s chances to add 20-30 yards with his legs. The Vikings have given up more than 45 rushing yards to both mobile QBs they’ve faced this year (Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields), and Thompson wasn’t afraid to use his legs in college (over 370 yards rushing in 2018 and 2019). Skylar is obviously a risky play this week, but I like his chances to wind up as a mid-range QB2 or better in a matchup that is better than you might think.

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 6: @Pit.): White has seen his role behind Leonard Fournette grow in recent weeks. He’s played nearly 40% of the snaps in each of the last two games and had at least 8 opportunities in each (carries + targets combined), and he could see even more this week in a game that has the potential to get out of hand. The Tampa offense has looked more like itself in recent weeks with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans back on the field, and the Steelers will be missing their top 3 cornerbacks and star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick in this game. The Steelers won’t have any answers for Tom Brady and that passing game, and that could lead to some garbage time opportunities for White against a middling run defense. There’s a low floor here, but also some nice upside for DFS tournaments.

RB Keontay Ingram, ARI (Wk. 6: @Sea.): James Conner and Darrel Williams have both been ruled out for week 6, leaving just Eno Benjamin and Ingram to handle the backfield work. Ingram has been inactive in each of the first 5 weeks of the season, so it’s hard to say how big of a role he’s going to play behind Benjamin, but Eno isn’t going to handle 100% of the workload. The Seahawks rank 24^th in run defense DVOA and allow the 5^th most RB points per game, so any opportunities against that unit are worth taking note of. Ingram costs the bare minimum on DraftKings - $3,000 in multiple-game contests, and $200 in Showdown contests – and he has a legitimate chance at 8-10 touches against one of the worst running back defenses in the league.

RBs Kevin Harris & Pierre Strong, NE (Wk. 6: @Cle.): Early reports after the weekend are that Damien Harris could miss multiple weeks with a hamstring injury suffered on Sunday. Rhamondre Stevenson will step into the clear lead back role while Harris is out, but he isn’t going to play 100% of the snaps. One of these two rookies is going to play a role alongside Stevenson while Damien is out. Both may be worth a stash in the deepest of leagues, but I would prioritize Strong since he’s the back that has been on the active roster for the first 5 weeks. Keep an eye on Damien Harris’ status moving forward, he was listed as a limited participant in practice on Tuesday, but reports were that he only warmed up. He’s already been ruled out for week 6. The Browns have allowed multiple backs to reach 10+ fantasy points in each of the last 2 games, so if you get a sense of which back will serve as the #2 behind Rhamondre, there could be value in showdown DFS contests.

RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk 6: vs Car.): I mention Kyren here because of the news that Cam Akers is now away from the Rams for personal reasons. Sean McVay referenced “some things we’re working through” when talking about the situation. We obviously don’t have all the information, but if I had to guess, this won’t be just a one-week absence. Kyren is likely to remain on IR through the Rams’ bye next week, but it’s very possible he returns for week 8, and he’s worth a look in really deep leagues. Adam Schefter reported before the season opener that Williams was ticketed for a meaningful role in the Rams’ offense, and if Akers’ absence continues, Williams could step into the RB2 role behind Darrell Henderson when he comes back. I wouldn’t make Kyren a priority stash. He’s a sub-par athlete (9^th-percentile speed score and 20^th-percentile burst score per Player Profiler), Malcolm Brown is still around to take some touches as well, and the Rams are unlikely to use Williams in the role he’s best suited for. Williams is a receiving back – he caught 77 passes in his last two seasons at Notre Dame - but the Rams don’t throw to the running backs on passing downs. Just two of Matt Stafford’s 52 passing attempts on 3^rd or 4^th down this year have targeted a running back. The Rams seem to like him, and there’s a clear opportunity for playing time when he comes back, so he’s worth a look as a stash if you’re desperate but temper your expectations.

WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. Bal.): Wan’Dale looks to be on track to play for the first time since week 1, and it couldn’t come at a better time for the Giants. New York has been operating with a replacement crew of receivers that rivals the Bears for worst in the league. Their WR1 has been Richie James. Robinson should step in as a valuable safety valve in the slot for Daniel Jones, and the Giants take on a Ravens team this week that has allowed the 2^nd-most points per game to receivers lined up in the slot per Sports Info Solutions. It’s hard to bank on Wan’Dale playing a full complement of snaps in his first game back after missing a month, but I like his chances at 6+ targets in this game. He’s a real option as a WR4 in deeper PPR leagues if you’re searching for WR help.

TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 6: @LAC): Dulcich seems likely to return from IR and make his debut this week, and that may put him in position to be the first tight end to ever play with a perm. Ok, I don’t know if any previous tight ends have had one, but if you don’t know what Dulcich looks like I urge you to google him and feast your eyes on what Andrew Cooper of Fantasy Alarm (@CoopAFiasco on twitter) referred to as “James Franco cosplaying as Weird Al.” Dulcich could step into a big role in his first game against a middling Charger defense. LA allows the 18^th-most TE points per game and the Broncos have been operating with Eric Saubert as their clear lead tight end. Dulcich should overtake him immediately, and the schedule gets more favorable in a few weeks. 5 of the first 6 teams the Broncos face after their week 9 bye have allowed more TE points per game than the Chargers. I’d view Dulcich as a volatile TE2 option this week, but there is upside in the coming weeks to be a top-12 tight end.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you pick up a W in week 5. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve made it through one bye week but getting through a second one could prove to be more of a challenge. The teams off this week contain some of the biggest names in fantasy football – the Bills, the Eagles, the Vikings, and the Rams all boast an elite wide receiver and multiple every-week fantasy starters. There is a plethora of injuries to key fantasy contributors again as well. You may have some work to do to round out your fantasy lineups this week, and you’re probably going to be considering some options that make you feel like vomiting. There’s bound to be at least one rookie you’re considering for a lineup. Luckily, I’m here as always to help break down what to expect from the rookies this week.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.

Let’s get into week 7…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Breece Hall, NYJ (Wk. 7: @Den.): Zach Wilson’s return hasn’t spelled fantasy success for the Jets’ pass catchers, but it’s been great for Hall, who has finished as a top-6 PPR RB in each of the last two weeks and has now finished top-15 at the position in 5 straight weeks. The Broncos are a tougher matchup than he’s seen in recent weeks, but at 18^th in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA they aren’t exactly a frightening matchup. The Broncos are also forced to start Brett Rypien at QB this week, so game script could be favorable for Breece once again. Treat Hall as a low-end RB1 this week.

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 7: vs. LAC): Walker has run for 80+ yards and a touchdown in each of the last two weeks, and he gets a juicy matchup with the Chargers this Sunday. LA ranks 22^nd in run defense DVOA.They’ve also allowed 20+ PPR points to a running back in 3 of the last 4 weeks and 15+ in 4 out of 5. Walker still sees limited passing game involvement, so that 20+ number in PPR leagues may be a lofty goal, but KW3 should be a solid RB2 against a bad run defense this week in all formats.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 7: @LV): I still have concerns about Pierce getting usage in the passing game (Rex Burkhead has played 100% of the two-minute offense snaps and 93% of the long down & distance snaps for the season), but Pierce is handling almost all of the rushing work and is going to be a weekly RB2 in any weeks where the Texans don’t get blown out in the first half. The Raiders are 7-point favorites in this game, so there’s some risk of game script getting away from Houston, but I trust that Pierce will get enough opportunity to be useful against the Raiders’ middling run defense. Vegas ranks 15^th in run defense DVOA.

RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 7: vs. GB): Robinson’s first two games have gone pretty much as expected. The Commanders have used him as an early down hammer in the run game, and he’s been an afterthought in the passing game. He managed to grind his way to 60 rushing yards last week, and a late TD pushed him up to a top-20 PPR finish for the week. The biggest takeaway for me was that Robinson handled nearly 60% of the team's rushing attempts. The team is making a point to get him the football, and this week he faces a defense that ranks 32^nd in run defense DVOA. Robinson should be more efficient running the ball this week against that unit, so there’s a lot of upside for him if the Commanders can keep this game competitive and keep feeding him the football. Be warned that Robinson’s usage is game-script dependent. He isn’t going to be used in clear passing situations, so if you think Green Bay has a bounce-back game and wins easily, you shouldn’t start Robinson. I think this game stays close enough that the Commanders’ rookie back is a top-20 RB option for me.

WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 7: @Was.): The Packers’ offense has been out of sorts in recent weeks, but that’s no reason to shy away from starting Doubs this week. Romeo has earned 8+ targets in 3 of his past 4 games, Christian Watson and Randall Cobb are out this week, and the Commanders allow the 5^th-most WR points per game. The production has been inconsistent for Doubs, but he should see solid volume in a plus matchup. I’d view him as a WR2 this week.

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 7: @Cin.): London’s biggest weekly concern is team passing volume. He’s had at least a 29% target share and 27% air yardage share each and every week, but the Falcons have averaged just 21 pass attempts per game in the last 5 weeks. The biggest key for London will be the Falcons playing from behind and needing to throw the ball more often. I actually think that happens here. The Bengals’ offense has been due for a breakout game for weeks, and the Falcons are the worst defense they’ve faced this season (29^th in total defense DVOA). I think the Bengals put up points, and Atlanta is forced to throw 30+ times for the first time since week 1. The matchup isn’t ideal against a decent Bengals’ defense, but with so many top WRs off this week, London is still a fringe WR2.

WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 7: @Ten.): Pierce has seen his playing time jump in recent weeks, but that jump coincided with injury absences for Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines. Don’t be shocked if he’s back in the 45-50% snap range this week with both backs expected back, but Pierce was producing even before the playing time increase in the last two games. He’s caught for at least 60 yards in 4 straight contests, and the Titans rank 29^th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 2^nd-most WR points per game. Pierce should still have a nice floor as a low end WR3 even if his snaps get scaled back, and he’s got a nice ceiling in a great matchup if those increased snaps continue.

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 7: @Mia.): Pickens has earned 6+ targets in each of the last 4 games, and he gets Kenny Pickett back at QB this week. The Dolphins allow the 8^th-most WR points per game and rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA, and their best corner Xavien Howard will match up mostly with Diontae Johnson. Everything is shaping up for a strong showing for Pickens on Sunday. He’s a solid WR3 option this week.

WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 7: @Jax.): Robinson was eased back into action in his first game since week 1, playing just 15 offensive snaps, but he was targeted on 35% of his routes run and finished the day with a 3-37-1 line. His playing time should go way up this week and the Giants are desperate for pass-catching help. Robinson should spend most of his time in the slot, matched up with Darious Williams, who has a PFF coverage grade of just 41.9 this season (100^th out of 108 qualified CBs). I expect 6+ targets this week. Robinson should be a fine floor WR3 play in PPR leagues, with upside for more if the individual matchup is as fruitful as it looks on paper.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 7: @Mia.): Pickett’s a fine option this week if you’re looking for a QB2, but I’d probably look elsewhere for a starter in 1-QB formats. The matchup may look enticing on paper. The Dolphins have allowed the 6^th-most QB points per game and as I mentioned with Pickens Miami ranks 31^st in pass defense DVOA, but when you look at what QBs they’ve faced those ranks look like they may be skewed by a tough QB schedule. The Phins have faced 3 QBs currently in the top-5 in fantasy points this season – Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow. Those 3 QBs averaged 30 fantasy points against the Dolphins. The other 3 QBs they’ve faced (Mac Jones, Kirk Cousins and Zach Wilson) have averaged just 13.5 fantasy points in those games. Pickett probably fits in better with that second group than the first one. There are 26 QBs who average more than 13.5 fantasy points per game so far this season.

QB Bailey Zappe, NE (Wk. 7: vs. Chi.): It looks like Mac Jones is going to be able to return on Monday night to face the Bears, but if he isn’t and Zappe is under center again, I’d treat him as a mid-range QB2. The Bears are much worse against the run than the pass (27^th in run defense DVOA, 14^th in pass defense DVOA), and the Pats will be happy to run it down their throats with Rhamondre and Damien Harris. Anything over 25 passing attempts for Zappe or Mac would be a bonus. Either QB would likely need to hit their ceiling efficiency to crack the top-12 QBs for the week.

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 7: @Cin.): Allgeier has played an expanded role in each of the last two weeks with Cordarrelle Patterson sidelined, but he’s finished with just 4.5 and 5.1 PPR points in those two contests against tough run defenses and gets a tough matchup again this week with the Bengals. Allgeier hasn’t been involved in the passing game (just 2 total targets on the year), and the Bengals have allowed the 7^th-fewest RB points per game. Cincy has only allowed 60+ rushing yards to two backs all season, and only 1 running back rushing TD. Caleb Huntley has been more impressive than Allgeier on limited opportunities, so there’s no guarantee that Tyler keeps playing more than half the snaps. If you start Allgeier you’re crossing your fingers that he manages to fall into the end zone.

WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 7: @Den.): It may seem like a good thing for Wilson that the Jets will play without Elijah Moore this week, but Moore’s absence likely solidifies that it will be Wilson who operates as the Jets’ WR1 and draws the coverage of Patrick Surtain II. The Broncos have held opposing WRs to the 2^nd-fewest fantasy points per game this year, and they’ve been especially effective against the top options on those teams. Surtain helped limit Mike Williams to 2-17, Michael Pittman Jr. to 5-59, and DK Metcalf to 7-36. The Jets are already struggling to put up aerial production with Zach Wilson under center. Wilson averages just 14 completions and 191 passing yards per game through 3 games, and I wouldn’t expect a substantial change this week against a tough Broncos’ secondary. Garrett Wilson is a contrarian DFS option and dicey WR4 this week.

WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 7: vs. Chi.): Thornton made a big impact in his second game of the season last week, scoring 2 TDs on 4 catches and 3 rushing attempts, but his playing time may have been boosted by injuries to Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne. Both players practiced in a limited capacity on Friday and are questionable for this game. The Patriots are 8-point favorites this week, and the Bears are abysmal against the run, so Thornton likely will need to make a splash play or two on limited opportunities in a run-heavy game plan. He has the wheels to score on almost any play, but he’s an upside dart throw with a low floor against a Chicago defense that allows the 4^th-fewest WR points per game.

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 7: vs. GB): Dotson is listed as questionable for this week, but I’d guess he’s on the wrong side of that tag after tweaking his hamstring again in practice Thursday. The Packers have been much more vulnerable on the ground than through the air. They allow just the 7^th-fewest WR points per game and rank 9^th in pass defense DVOA. If Dotson is able to play, I’d view him as a WR4 this week.

TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 7: @Jax.): Bellinger has been a pleasant surprise this season for the Giants, ranking as the TE13 in PPR points per game so far this year, and he played his highest snap share of the season last weekend (94%). It’s an exciting development for those who drafted Bellinger in dynasty leagues or got him late in deep redraft leagues, but this isn’t a great week to plug him in as your TE1. The Jaguars have allowed the 11^th-fewest TE points per game and only 1 TD to the position. Bellinger hasn’t topped 40 yards in any game this season, so he needs a TD to return value. I also worry that his snap share last week could be a bit of a mirage. Backup Tanner Hudson was held out of practice with an illness on Thursday and Friday last week before playing only 12% of the snaps in the game Sunday. He’d played 35%+ of the snaps in each of the 4 games prior to week 6. If his snaps come back up this week, it will likely be at Bellinger’s expense. Bellinger is still the clear TE1 here, but he’s just a high-end TE2 in a tougher matchup this week.

TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 7: vs. NYJ): Dulcich played a full-time role in his NFL debut and ran a route on about two-thirds of the team's passing dropbacks on Monday night against the Chargers. He scored a long TD and finished as the TE9 for the week, and this week he faces a Jets’ defense that’s only a middling unit against TEs (17^th-most TE points per game allowed). Unfortunately, it’s a big question what kind of quarterback play he’ll get this week with Brett Rypien starting in place of an injured Russell Wilson. Rypien has made just 1 NFL start in his career (oddly enough, it was against the Jets). It’s not a big sample size, but in that game, he was willing to push the ball down the field to his perimeter wide receivers. He finished with 242 yards, 2 TDs, and 3 INTs. This year’s version of the Jets’ defense is much better than the one Rypien faced the first time around. There’s too much uncertainty in what we’ll see from Rypien for me to confidently start Dulcichas a TE1 this week.

TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 7: @Car.): Cam Brate has been ruled out for week 7 with a neck injury, so Otton should serve as the full-time tight end against the Panthers. Otton drew 7 targets the last time Brate missed a game in week 5, but I expect the Bucs to play from ahead for most of this game and don’t expect nearly the same passing volume in this one. Tom Brady threw the ball 52 times in that week 5 contest. The Panthers also have defended the TE position well, allowing just the 8^th-fewest points per game to the position. There’s upside in any game where Otton plays a full-time role with Brady under center, but I’d view him as a mid-range TE2 this week.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Skylar Thompson, MIA (Wk. 7: vs. Pit.): Tua is practicing this week and is expected to make the start against the Steelers with Teddy Bridgewater back to serving as the backup. Thompson looked good early on Sunday against the Dolphins, but he suffered a nasty injury to his thumb on his throwing hand that cut his day short. Hopefully, he gets another chance to play at some point.

QB Sam Howell, WAS (Wk. 7: vs. GB): Staring QB Carson Wentz was placed on IR this week with a thumb injury, but the Commanders will turn to Taylor Heinicke to start in his absence rather than the rookie Howell. Keep tabs on this situation…if Heinicke performs poorly it could open the door for Howell to get on the field, but there’s no reason to consider him this week.

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 7: @Mia.): Najee Harris continued to be his usual, inefficient self last week, totaling 49 scrimmage yards on 16 touches, but Warren handled just 2 carries and zero targets in the game. He’s touched the ball more than 5 times just once this season. It’s impossible to rely on him in starting lineups until his touches start to increase or Najee gets a week off.

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 7: @SF): The trend has continued to look the same for Pacheco. When the Chiefs win in a romp, he gets late playing time. When the game is competitive, he only gets a few opportunities. He’s yet to handle more than 4 touches in a game where the Chiefs didn’t win by double-digits. Kansas City is just a 1-point favorite this week, and the 49ers are the best team in the NFL in run defense DVOA.

RB Tyrion Davis-Price, SF (Wk. 7: vs. KC): TDP was activated from IR last week, and there was a chance for his role to grow this week after Jeff Wilson Jr. was mostly ineffective against Atlanta, but the 49ers dumped cold water on that when they added Christian McCaffrey in a trade on Thursday. I’d expect McCaffrey to be able to play at least a part-time role this week, and that leaves nothing for Davis-Price behind CMC and Wilson. If McCaffrey somehow isn’t ready to play this week, Davis-Price is no more than an upside dart throw in DFS showdown contests.

RBs Kevin Harris & Pierre Strong, NE (Wk. 7: vs. Chi.): Rhamondre Stevenson handled 85% of the backfield touches in week 6 with Damien Harris sidelined. The two rookie backs did play a little bit, but neither recorded a single touch until the Pats were up by 3 scores in the third quarter. There isn’t enough here for either guy to be relevant unless Rhamondre gets hurt, and it also appears that Damien Harris will return this week.

RB Trestan Ebner, CHI (Wk. 7: @NE): Ebner has been an afterthought for the Bears since Khalil Herbert returned from injury in week 5. He’s played just 4 total offensive snaps in the last two weeks.

WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 7: @SF): Moore’s playing time seemed to be headed in the right direction, but he’s plateaued at about 30% of the team's offensive snaps in the last few weeks. He may eventually gain more traction in this offense, but a 30% role against a defense that allows the 5^th-fewest WR points per game isn’t the profile of a player you want to start.

WR Kyle Philips, TEN (Wk. 7: vs. Ind.): Philips showed out in week 1 as the Titans’ starting slot wide receiver, but he was hurt in week 2 and has been slow to get his playing time back after returning in week 4. He played just 2 snaps in his first game back, and 18 snaps in week 5 ahead of the team bye last week. He could see those snaps take another step forward this week, but the Colts have allowed the fewest PPR points per game to WRs lined up in the slot per Sports Info Solutions. It’s worth monitoring his playing time with Treylon Burks still on IR, but don’t start Philips anywhere this week.

WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 7: @Bal.): Bell saw a season-high in snaps and route participation rate in week 6 with the Browns playing from behind by multiple scores for much of the game, but it resulted in just 2 targets and 1 catch for 13 yards. Nothing has changed for Bell going forward.

WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 7: @NE): Jones is slowly getting more integrated into the offense, but he was at just 12 offensive snaps in his 3^rd game of the season, and he muffed a punt in that game. He’s playing a limited role in an offense that ranks 28^th in yards and 31^st in points in the NFL.

WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL (Wk. 7: vs. Det.): Tolbert will probably be inactive for the 6^th time in 7 games.

WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 7: @Was.): In case you missed the news, Watson has been ruled out for week 7 with injury.

TEs Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar, BAL (Wk. 7: vs. Cle.): I included Kolar this week because he’s been cleared for practice and may be close to returning from IR. I wouldn’t expect him to step into a significant role right away with Mark Andrews and Likely pretty deeply cemented as the TE1 and TE2 in front of him. He may eventually take some of Likely’s role, but it’s a role that hasn’t made Likely a viable fantasy option. Likely has totaled just 6 targets in the last two weeks with Rashod Bateman sidelined. Mark Andrews caught a questionable tag this week with a knee injury. If Andrews sits, Likely becomes a fringe TE1, and Kolar a DFS dart throw (assuming he’s active).

TE Jake Ferguson& Peyton Hendershot, DAL (Wk. 7: vs. Det.): The matchup here is good – Detroit allows the 8^th-most TE points per game – but it appears that Dalton Schultz will return this week after being a surprise inactive in week 6 with a knee injury. Schultz has practiced in full all week and gets back his QB in Dak Prescott as well. If Schultz plays, Ferguson and Hendershot will be afterthoughts. If Schultz were to sit again, they’d split the TE role evenly. In that scenario, I wouldn’t want to start either player.

TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 7: vs. Ind.): Okonkwo has yet to play more than 16 offensive snaps in any game this season. The Colts do allow the 7^th-most TE points per game, so there’s maybe some hope for the rookie as a DFS dart throw, but Okonkwo has a low ceiling and a non-existent floor.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 7: @Car.): The Panthers have essentially waved the white flag on this season after trading away Robbie Anderson and Christian McCaffrey in the last week. The Bucs enter the weekend as 2-touchdown favorites against those Panthers, and that should open the door for some garbage time work for Rachaad White. Rachaad has already handled 7+ touches in each of the last 3 games, but if this game goes the way Vegas expects it to that should rise into the 12-15 range against Carolina. I think White is an upside RB3 in what should be a blowout win for the Bucs.

RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 7: @Sea.): It’s been reported that Spiller will be active for the first time all year on Sunday with Joshua Kelley placed on IR, and it’s possible he sees some work in his debut. Austin Ekeler is still the clear lead back here, but the Chargers have had an average of 11.5 non-Ekeler backfield touches per game this year split between Kelley and Sony Michel. Kelley is out, and Michel has been ineffective, averaging just 3.4 yards per touch. This may be Spiller’s best opportunity to carve out his role as the complement to Ekeler. Seattle is 21^st in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 9^th-most RB points per game. I mention Spiller here mostly as a stash in deeper leagues, but he costs just $200 in DraftKings showdown contests.

RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR (Wk. 7: vs. TB): I mention Blackshear here as a stash option in the deepest of PPR leagues. He’s a small receiving back who was a UDFA out of Virginia Tech. Blackshear should now be active on game days with McCaffrey traded away, but I’d expect that he’ll start out behind both D’onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard on the depth chart. Hubbard has struggled as a receiver at the NFL level, but the Panthers have shown a continued willingness to use him in a pass-catching despite the struggles. Keep an eye on what the backfield usage looks like this week, but none of the RBs in Carolina are great options against a Tampa defense that allows the fewest RB points per game.

RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk. 7: Bye): The Rams are on a bye this week, so it might be your last chance to grab Kyren for free if he’s still available in deeper leagues. Cam Akers was away from the team last week due to frustration with his role/usage, and the Rams are making efforts to trade him away. That will leave just Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown, and Kyren as available running backs for the Rams. Henderson will be the RB1, but the Rams had plans for Williams to contribute on offense this year before his injury hit, and he should have a role as a receiving back behind Henderson after the bye. One thing to be aware of here though…the Rams have targeted a running back on just 4 of their 55 third-down pass attempts this season. Kyren isn’t a priority stash, but he’s worth consideration if you’re desperate for running back help in PPR leagues.

WR Jameson Williams, DET (Wk. 7: @Dal.): Williams isn’t going to be activated this week, but he shouldn’t be on waivers in most leagues, especially those with an IR slot available. Jameson has league-winner upside once he’s able to get on the field. He has 4.3-second speed and put up over 1,500 yards and 15 TDs at Alabama last season. He’ll immediately be a top-2 wide receiver on the Lions along with Amon-Ra St. Brown once he’s able to play. DJ Chark going on IR this week has cleared a runway to immediate playing time for Williams when he’s ready to go.

TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 7: @Ten.): Woods still isn’t playing a large portion of the snaps for Indy, but he’s seen his snaps and route participation rate steadily go up as the season’s gone on, and ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported that he expects the Colts to look to get him more involved going forward. Woods has been the target on 21% of the Colts’ pass attempts into the end zone this year, and the Titans gave up two tight end scores when they faced the Colts in week 4. Woods is by no means a top-10 TE option this week since he plays less than half of the offensive snaps, but he’s got upside for DFS or if you’re desperate in season-long leagues.

TE Cole Turner, WAS (Wk. 7: vs. GB):I mention Turner here because Logan Thomas is already ruled out for this week and John Bates is questionable to play after injuring his hamstring in pre-game warmups last week. Turner was targeted just twice in that game last week, but he was on the field for 93% of the Commanders’ offensive plays. He’s going to play a full-time role if Bates is out, and if you’re looking for a waiver wire TE in deeper leagues, anyone with a pulse is worth consideration. That’s pretty much all Turner is this week.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you pick up another big win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve made it to championship week, and honestly, you deserve a title if you survived last week’s slate of ice bowls. The weather wreaked havoc on lineups and fantasy performances last weekend as a number of key players posted duds with everything on the line. Justin Herbert, Derek Carr, Rhamondre Stevenson, Cordarrelle Patterson, D’Andre Swift, Josh Jacobs, Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Adam Thielen, Mark Andrews, and DeAndre Hopkins were all among the players who could’ve sabotaged your chances of advancing. You’re in luck this week as the weather appears to be much more favorable. As of right now, not one game in week 17 is projected to have winds higher than 11 mph, and only one game is projected to have a temperature below 40 degrees (Vikings at Packers). All-in-all, weather shouldn’t be much of a consideration this week unless things change drastically between now and Sunday.

The bigger concern this week is with teams that have nothing to play for – most notably the Titans and Raiders. The Titans are sitting Derrick Henry and Malik Willis this week since the only game that matters for their playoff hopes is next week against the Jaguars, and the Raiders have benched Derek Carr, likely torpedoing the values of Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, and Darren Waller in championship week. Make sure you know if any of your players are at risk of reduced workloads in inconsequential games and adjust accordingly.

Odds are if you’ve made it this far, you’ve had at least one rookie contribute along the way. I can’t remember another season with quite so many important fantasy rookies, and that means there are a lot of them in consideration for championship week lineups. I’m here to help you navigate what to do with them once again, and hopefully help you guide your squad to a title.y

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.

Let’s jump into week 17…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 17: vs. NYJ): Walker doesn’t always put up crooked rushing production (he’s been held below 50 rushing yards in 4 of his last 5 games), but he’s tallied at least 11.9 PPR points in each of his last 9 healthy games. I wouldn’t be excited to use him in DFS contests since the Jets rank 8^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA and allow the 9^th-fewest RB points per game, but Walker has consistently finished as an RB2 this season, and his workload is safe. You can’t sit him in championship games unless you have safe studs ahead of him.

WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 17: @Sea.): Wilson gets Mike White back at QB this week, and that should mean good things for his production. The Seahawks have allowed just the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game, but they also rank 21^st in pass defense DVOA. Wilson has scored 12 or more PPR points in each of the last 5 games that were not started by Zach Wilson, and he’s been targeted at least 7 times in all of them. He’s got top-12 upside every time Mike White is under center, and Seattle isn’t as daunting of a matchup as their points allowed ranking would indicate.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Brock Purdy, SF (Wk. 17: @LV): Purdy has finished as the QB14 or better in all 3 of his starts so far this season, and he should be a fine high-end QB2 again this week. The Raiders have limited 5 of the last 6 QBs they’ve faced to fewer than 2 total touchdowns, but only one QB all year has fallen short of 220 passing yards against them. Purdy continues to keep the 49ers’ offense on schedule and make plays in the passing game when asked to. I wouldn’t be plugging him into fantasy lineups ahead of obvious top-10 QB plays, but he’s a steady QB2 once again this week.

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 17: vs. Ari.): Allgeier has been on a true heater over the past couple months, and he appears to have wrestled the lead back role away from Cordarrelle Patterson in this offense. He had been consistently topping 50 yards on around 10 carries per week in November, and that efficient running led to a rise in playing time in the last two games, and Allgeier has kept up his strong play. He’s tallied 253 scrimmage yards and a TD over the last two weeks on 40 touches, and this week he faces an Arizona defense that ranks 27^th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 8^th-most RB points per game. The most promising development last week was that Allgeier set season-highs with 5 targets and 4 receptions in Desmond Ridder’s second start. Allgeier should be a reasonable RB2 this week on rushing upside alone, but if the passing usage continues, he could have even more untapped ceiling.

RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 17: vs. Cle.): Robinson has piled up 80+ rushing yards in 4 of his past 6 games, and this week faces one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. The Browns rank 30^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 3rd-most RB points per game. Cleveland has allowed a 70-yard rusher in 6 of their last 7 games, and Antonio Gibson might be inactive this week, leaving a bigger share of the workload for the rookie. Robinson is a top-20 RB play this week.

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 17: vs. Den.): Pacheco hasn’t consistently shown an exciting fantasy ceiling, scoring 15+ fantasy points just twice all year, but he’s been a rock-solid floor play with 7 straight games of 80+ scrimmage yards. Denver looked like they’ve given up on 2022 last week, surrendering 51 points to the Rams and allowing Cam Akers to bulldoze them for 118 yards and 3 scores. The Broncos rank just 22^nd in run defense DVOA, and Pacheco put up 93 scrimmage yards against them in the first meeting back in week 14. Denver did dismiss head coach Nathaniel Hackett this week, and teams often see a bump in performance in the game after firing a coach in-season, but I don’t think that bump is enough to overcome a two-touchdown point spread this week. The Chiefs should still win easily, and Pacheco should roll up another 80 yards and a possible score. He’s a floor RB2/3 again this week.

RB Zonovan Knight, NYJ (Wk. 17: @Sea.): Knight is a risky play this week, but he’s a risky play in a good matchup. He had an abysmal performance last Thursday night against the Jaguars in the rain. He looked indecisive as a runner and finished with negative rushing yards on his 6 carries. The workload was disappointing, but Knight still handled 60% of the running back rushing attempts and should get another crack as lead back this week. The Seahawks allow the 2^nd-most RB points per game, and rank 25^th in run defense DVOA. Seattle has allowed 12+ PPR points to 7 different running backs in the past 5 games. If Knight functions as the RB1 again this week, he should be a fantasy RB2. The biggest concern would be that he could lose carries after his poor performance last week. Keep tabs on team reports if you’re considering Knight this week.

WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 17: vs. Min.): Watson is questionable for this week with a hip injury that knocked him out of the Christmas Day game with the Dolphins, but if he’s able to play he’s got a mountain of upside. Watson has emerged as Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target in this passing game. He was targeted 8 times on Rodgers’ first 16 pass attempts last weekend before exiting with injury, and that kind of workload against a bad Vikings secondary could mean top-12 upside this week. The Vikings allow the 2^nd-most WR points per game.  Keep an eye on the injury report to see if he’s limited at all, but if it sounds like Watson will be at full strength, he should be in your lineup.

WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 17: @Phi.): Olave has returned to practice this week after missing last Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury. The Eagles have strong perimeter cornerbacks and have allowed just the 10^th-fewest WR points per game, but Olave has been matchup-proof for much of the season. Jarvis Landry has gone on IR this week, and in the games Landry’s missed this year Olave has averaged 9 targets per game. Olave hasn’t shown WR1 upside in a while, but he should be a safe WR3 if he’s active.

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 17: vs. Cle.): The Commanders are going back to Carson Wentz at QB this week, but Dotson has shown this season that he’s capable of producing no matter who is under center. The conventional wisdom this season has been that Heinicke only had eyes for Terry McLaurin, and the switch to Wentz should be a good thing for Dotson, but Dotson has done a great job of establishing himself with Heinicke in recent weeks. Dotson had earned a 26% target share from Heinicke in the last 3 games. Jahan has shown he’s a touchdown machine when healthy. He scored 4 touchdowns in the first 4 games of the season with Wentz before going on IR, and after a few weeks of getting his playing time ramped up and getting acclimated to Heinicke after his return, Dotson has rattled off 3 straight games with a score. The Browns have allowed just the 8^th-fewest WR points per game, but I’d bet on Dotson keeping his hot streak alive. The team has been more pass-heavy when Carson Wentz is under center (Wentz attempted 38+ passes in each of the first 5 games of the year, and Heinicke has thrown more than 33 attempts just once), and the biggest concern with Wentz is that he crumbles when pressured. The Browns’ defense has the 6^th-lowest pressure rate in the league. Dotson is more TD-reliant than the other WRs listed in this section, but I like him as a WR3 this week.

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 17: vs. Ari.): London appears to have finally turned the corner after showing some consistency over the past 3 weeks. He’s put up receiving lines of 6-95, 7-70, and 7-96 despite the team totaling fewer than 500 passing yards total in those 3 games. Arizona allows the 11^th-fewest WR points per game, but they also allow the 8^th-most passing yards per game, and London has been the bulk of the Atlanta passing attack in recent weeks. I wouldn’t bank on enough volume for London to have a true blow-up game this week, but he should keep the string of solid performances going as he continues to build a rapport with Desmond Ridder.

TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 17: @KC): Dulcich has 8 targets in each of Russell Wilson’s last 3 starts, and the Broncos should be throwing a bunch again this week as two-TD underdogs in Kansas City. KC isn’t a great matchup for Dulcich, but the volume should have him firmly in-play as a low-end TE1. Dulcich plays from the slot as much as any tight end in the league (5^th among all tight ends in slot snaps despite not playing until week 6), but 66% of his PPR fantasy points have come when aligned as an in-line tight end according to Sports Info Solutions. The Chiefs have allowed more fantasy points to tight ends lined up in the slot than any other team in the league, but they’ve allowed the fewest points in the league to in-line tight ends. Dulcich is going to have to make the most of his slot opportunities to out-perform that fringe TE1 range. He tallied 3 catches for 42 yards on 8 targets in his first meeting with the Chiefs.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 17: vs. Car.): White finished last week as the RB14 thanks to a 4^th quarter TD, but he took a clear back seat to Leonard Fournette in backfield usage in that game. Lenny handled 20 carries and 10 targets against the Cardinals compared to just 7 carries and 4 targets for White. There’s no guarantee that White bounces back to a more even split this week. The Bucs need to win to take control of the division race, and they’ve typically leaned more on Fournette when they need to win. The Panthers have been a solid defense against running backs this year. They’ve allowed the 15^th fewest RB points per game, but that number is skewed a bit by a 5-TD game for Joe Mixon. If we remove the Bengals game, Carolina has allowed the 8^th-fewest RB points per game, and they gave up only 58 combined yards and no TDs to Fournette and White in the first meeting with Tampa. You could potentially get away with starting White again this week, but he carries a bit more risk than usual with a tough matchup and a less certain role.

RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 17: @Cin.): Cook made you look smart if you took a chance on him against the Bears at frigid Soldier Field last weekend, but I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance here. Cook has been productive when the Bills have gone run-heavy, something they did against the Browns, Patriots and Bears, but it’s not the approach I expect them to take this week. The Bengals have allowed the 8^th-fewest RB points per game and the 6^th-fewest RB rushing yards per game. The Bills would be wise to lean into their strengths in this one and let Josh Allen do the heavy lifting. I’d expect just a handful of carries and a few targets for Cook, which means he’ll need a TD to return value. The Bengals have coughed up just 1 running back score in their past 5 games.

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 17: @Bal.): Pickens has been playing well in recent weeks, putting up 50+ yards in 5 of his last 6 games, including a 3-78 line on 3 targets against these Ravens in the first meeting a few weeks ago, but he hasn’t put up more than 6 targets in a game since week 5. The Ravens have allowed the 11^th-most WR points per game this season, but only 3 receivers in the last 12 games have tallied a dozen fantasy points against them (half-PPR). All 3 of them either scored a TD or earned double-digit targets. Pickens isn’t getting to 10+ targets, so you need the TD, and the Ravens’ defense has allowed just 6 total touchdowns in their last 6 games. If you’re happy with 8-10 PPR points, Pickens is a fine option, but if you’re hoping for more, I’d probably look elsewhere.

WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 17: vs. Min.): This recommendation changes if Christian Watson’s hip injury keeps him from playing this week. The Vikings’ pass defense has been porous this season, and Doubs would step into a prominent role if Watson is sidelined. Doubs has been targeted 11 times in the last two games and would see an uptick there if Watson were to sit, and the Vikings allow the 7^th-highest completion % and 4^th-highest yards per completion in the league. Doubs has WR2 upside in this matchup if Watson is unable to play, but he’s a dicey WR4 if Watson suits up. Watson is practicing in a limited capacity as of Thursday.

WR Rashid Shaheed, NO (Wk. 17: @Phi.): Shaheed is a big play waiting to happen every week, but he’s hasn’t had more than 4 targets come his way in any game that Chris Olave has been active for, and the Eagles rank 1^st in pass defense DVOA and allow the 10^th-fewest WR points per game. Shaheed is now the WR2 in this offense with Jarvis Landry on IR, so you could take a swing if you’re in big need of upside, but Shaheed is a boom-or-bust WR4 option. With Andy Dalton as his QB, the ‘boom’ side of that is always a longer shot than it should be.

WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 17: vs. Dal.): Burks was targeted just twice in his first game played with Malik Willis at QB and didn’t record a single reception. He could see more usage this week with Josh Dobbs taking over and an expected negative game script, but it’s hard to count on any pass catchers in this offense without Ryan Tannehill at QB. The matchup this week is more favorable than you’d think given that the Cowboys rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA. They’ve allowed the 4^th-most WR points per game and have allowed 4 different receivers to catch for 100+ yards in the last 3 weeks since CB Anthony Brown went on IR. Burks is an intriguing play in DFS tournaments this week, but he shouldn’t be anywhere near your championship lineups unless you’re desperate.

WR Jameson Williams, DET (Wk. 17: vs. Chi.): Williams has big-play upside, but the Lions have been unwilling to unleash him for more than a handful of plays each week, and comments Dan Campbell made this week make me believe any changes there will be incremental. When asked about ramping up Jameson’s usage, Campbell said: “We’ll get him a couple more plays this week. He’s coming. It takes work. We just can’t throw him out there and say, ‘You’re taking 65 plays.’ There’s a trust that has to be built. But he’s working through that, and it’s good.” I touted Jameson as a potential league-winner down the stretch, but it sounds like he’s going to remain a part-time player through the remainder of the regular season. He could have some success on limited snaps against the Bears’ barely there defense (29^th in pass defense DVOA), but you can’t count on that in championship week lineups.

TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 17: vs. Car.): I made the mistake last week of betting against the Cam Brate corollary with Otton. The rule is that if Brate is active, you should sit Otton, and if Brate sits, you should fire him up. Otton has now failed to reach 10 PPR points in all 9 games that Brate has been active for. He’s 4-for-5 at hitting that mark when Brate sits. For what it’s worth, Otton did play a full-time role last week. He was in a route on 84% of Tom Brady’s dropbacks and was targeted 7 times, but he turned that into just 2 catches for 12 yards. He’s got low-end TE1 upside if he sees that kind of usage again this week, but there are less risky streaming options out there. The Panthers allow the 11^th-fewest TE points per game.

TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 17: vs. Dal.): Okonkwo has earned just 7 targets in the 3 games Ryan Tannehill didn’t play, and Dallas allows the 3^rd-fewest TE points per game. The rookie still has big-play upside, but if he gets more than just a couple catches it would be a surprise. The team announced Thursday that Josh Dobbs is going to get the start at QB, but Dobbs has just 45 career passing yards to his name. You’d be taking a huge leap of faith if you start Okonkwo in a championship game with Dobbs at QB.

TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 17: vs. Ind.): Bellinger has been on the field for 97% or more of the Giants’ offensive snaps in 3 of the past 4 games, but he isn’t getting the ball enough to be useful in championship week. Any tight end that plays a full-time role is capable of putting up a fringe TE1 performance, but Bellinger hasn’t tallied more than 40 yards in any game this season, and the Colts have allowed just 1 tight end score in the last 11 games.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 17: @Bal.): Pickett still hasn’t posted two total touchdowns in any game he’s started this season, and the Ravens have only allowed two QBs to score 14+ fantasy points in their last 10 games (Tom Brady and Trevor Lawrence). There isn’t a good reason to expect more from Pickett this week than what we’ve seen over the past 3 months. He remains an uninspiring QB2 option.

QB Skylar Thompson, MIA (Wk. 17: @NE): I’d be very surprised if Tua Tagovailoa ends up playing this week after going into the concussion protocol for the third time this season, so that means either Skylar Thompson or Teddy Bridgewater would get the starting nod in his place. If Thompson gets the nod, there is some upside with the weapons he’ll have at his disposal, but the Patriots are always a tough matchup against inexperienced QBs, especially in Foxboro. New England has held 3 of the 7 QBs they’ve faced at home this season below 8 fantasy points, including Zach Wilson and Sam Ehlinger. Thompson is nothing more than a prayer QB2 this week, even if he does get the start.

Update: Teddy Bridgewater is expected to get the start in Tua’s place

QB Malik Willis, TEN (Wk. 17: vs. Dal.): If you missed the news on Thursday, Josh Dobbs is expected to get the start for the Titans, not Willis. With Derrick Henry expected to sit, the team likely feels that they need someone who could have success throwing the ball, and that isn’t Willis right now. Dobbs isn’t exactly a proven option. He’s attempted just 17 passes in his 5+ year NFL career, but he flashed this past preseason with the Browns.

RB Zamir White, LV (Wk. 17: vs. SF): The Raiders have thrown in the towel for 2022 after their loss to the Steelers last week ended their realistic playoff hopes. They’ve already announced that Derek Carr has been benched for Jarrett Stidham for the remainder of the season, and they’ll likely limit Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams a bit as well to get a look at younger players on the roster. That means Zamir White will probably set a career-high in touches this week, but I wouldn’t expect much success against a San Francisco defense that allows the fewest RB points per game. The Raiders’ offense as a whole is likely to struggle.

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 17: @Bal.): Warren’s spike in usage in week 15 didn’t carry over to last Sunday, and he’s now handled 8+ touches in just 4 games this season. He isn’t playing enough for you to rely on him in your championship lineup, especially against a Baltimore defense that ranks 4^th in run defense DVOA.

WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 17: @NYG): The Colts’ passing game is just too much of a mess to consider an inconsistent target like Pierce. Nick Foles threw for fewer than 150 yards in his first start, and Pierce has 30+ receiving yards just once in 6 games since Jeff Saturday took over as head coach, and he’s put up a goose egg in 3 of them. The floor here is zero.

TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 17: @Atl.): McBride has played at least 70% of the offensive snaps in each of Arizona’s past 6 games, and he has just one game of 6+ PPR points to show for it. He’s a low-end TE2 whether it’s Colt McCoy or Trace McSorley under center.

Rookies who may as well be on byes: RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR, RBs Pierre Strong Jr. and Kevin Harris, NE, RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC, RB Kyren Williams, LAR, RB Keaontay Ingram, ARI, Trestan Ebner, CHI, WR Skyy Moore, KC, WR David Bell, CLE, WR Khalil Shakir, BUF, WR Tyquan Thornton, NE, TE Isaiah Likely, BAL, TEs Peyton Hendershot & Jake Ferguson, DAL, TE James Mitchell, DET

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Desmond Ridder, ATL (Wk. 17: vs. Ari.): Ridder showed progress throwing the ball last week, completing two-thirds of his attempts and accounting for more than 200 passing yards, something Marcus Mariota did just once in his final 10 starts. Atlanta is out of the playoff picture, but don’t look for them to hold anything back this week. The Cardinals allow the 9^th-most QB points per game and have allowed more than 195 passing yards to every QB they’ve faced this year, including some pretty mediocre opponents – Brett Rypien, John Wolford, and Carolina Baker Mayfield. Ridder has some extra upside this week as another 200-yard passing performance feels likely. You could do worse than Ridder if you’re desperate for a QB2 this week.

RBs Tyrion Davis-Price & Jordan Mason, SF (Wk. 17: @LV): The 49ers have rattled off 8 straight wins, and everything points to them likely making it 9 straight in relatively easy fashion this week against the Raiders. Las Vegas has benched Derek Carr and will probably scale back playing time for other stars as well, which should lead to a ho-hum 49ers victory. The Niners are already a run-heavy offense, and positive game script should push them even further in that direction in this one. Christian McCaffrey has only about 63% of the team’s running back rushing yards over the past 4 games, so that leaves plenty of room for one of the back-ups to step up and be a valuable DFS play, especially if there is garbage time like I expect. Davis-Price surprisingly carried the ball 9 times last week, but Mason was dealing with a hamstring injury that limited him to just special teams work. He’s reportedly doing better this week. Pay attention to the injury updates on Mason – I’d prioritize him over TDP this week unless you hear that he’ll be limited again. The Raiders rank just 20^th in run defense DVOA, and Mason has averaged 5 yards per carry or more in each of his last 4 games where he recorded a touch. Mason costs just $2,000 on DraftKings for showdown contests.

RBs Hassan Haskins & Julius Chestnut, TEN (Wk. 17: vs. Dal.): Derrick Henry is listed as doubtful for this week, and Dontrell Hilliard is on IR. That leaves Haskins and Chestnut as the top two backs for this week’s game. Neither player has the kind of outlook that you should be excited to get into a championship week lineup, but both have some upside as cheap DFS plays. Haskins costs just $3,000 and Chestnut just $1,800 for showdown contests on DraftKings. Dallas has allowed the 3^rd-fewest RB points per game and ranks 5^th in run defense DVOA, but the Titans will continue to pound the ball with Josh Dobbs at QB. Haskins should be the primary ballcarrier on early downs, and Chestnut should handle passing-down work, but both should be involved quite a bit. The Titans are double-digit underdogs, so negative game script could mean Chestnut is the guy who plays more. At least with Dobbs there is a better chance of Chestnut catching a handful of dump-off passes than he’d have with Willis.

WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 17: @Det.): Last Sunday was the first time all year that Jones recorded 2 receptions in a game, so the floor here is very low, but don’t be surprised if Jones cashes in a splash play or two. Jones has served as the team’s WR3 behind Byron Pringle and Dante Pettis the last two weeks with Chase Claypool and Equanimeous St. Brown sidelined with injury. Both injured receivers got their first limited practice of the week on Thursday and are listed as questionable again. Jones showed off his deep-ball skills last week with a 44-yard catch, and this week’s opponent is especially vulnerable to deep passes. The Lions rank 28^th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed 10 completions of 30+ yards in their last 3 games. If ESB and Claypool are out again, Jones will get a couple opportunities to hit a big play or two, and he costs just $800 on DraftKings for showdown contests.

TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 17: @NYG): Kylen Granson has missed two games this season, and those have been Woods’ two best games of the year. Woods posted 8-98 on 9 targets back in week 12 against the Steelers, and then 3-43 on 5 targets last week against the Chargers in Nick Foles’ first start. Granson isn’t practicing as of Thursday, so Jelani could have strong upside against the Giants, who allow the 6^th-most TE points per game. The Colts’ overall passing game is a mess, but it can’t get much worse than what we saw from Foles last week, and it doesn’t take much from a tight end for him to have top-12 upside. Woods could be a nice streaming option if you’re desperate at tight end this week, and he costs just $2,800 on DraftKings.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you bring home a fantasy championship. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.