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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Our long football-less national nightmare is finally over. Week one is upon us! By now you’ve hopefully you’ve made it through your draft and are relatively happy with the team you’ve put together, but now you get the fun of managing the lineup week-to-week. Week one is typically the epitome of the ‘start your studs’ mantra. We have limited information when it comes to schemes for new play callers, which teams have made defensive improvements, and who will get substantial playing time. The preseason can help us decipher some of these things, but teams do a pretty good job of playing coy in August and keeping things under wraps until the games start to count. Week one isn’t the time to get cute with your lineup decisions. With that in mind, there are only going to be a few rookies that I’d recommend playing in week one. Most of the rookies mentioned this week will be guys you should sit or are upside options in DFS lineups or guys you should be stashing on your bench.

 

In case you’re new here, each week I’ll break down the rookie crop’s matchups and place the relevant players into categories of ‘Rookies to Start’, ‘Borderline Rookies’, ‘Rookies to Sit’, and ‘Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options’. Make sure to read the details rather than just the headers though. Usually there is additional context that is important with understanding what to do with each player depending on your league’s format. Let’s dive into week 1…

 

Rookies to Start:

 

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 1: vs. GB): After trading away Jordan Howard in the offseason, the Bears traded up in the draft to take Montgomery in the 3^rd round with the hope that he would be their feature back. They signed Mike Davis as insurance, but all reports out of camp say Montgomery has been everything the Bears hoped he would be. Tarik Cohen will still factor in, but I expect Montgomery to be their starter out of the gate. The Packers revamped their defense a bit in the offseason, but losing Mike Daniels at DT is unlikely to be a positive change for a unit that ranked 23^rd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA last year and dead last in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs. Montgomery will be a bargain in DFS lineups in week 1 and should probably be in your starting lineup if you drafted him.

 

Borderline Rookies:

 

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 1: @Det.): We’re only a few days away from finally seeing the Cardinals pull back the curtain on Kliff Kingsbury’s air raid offense. The Cardinals haven’t wowed anyone in the preseason, but they were intentionally vanilla in their play calling and didn’t want to tip their hand about the scheme. That’ll change Sunday and we’ll get to see if this is all hype or if the air raid will be the next evolution of NFL offenses. If things go well for the offense this week Murray has massive upside, but there is obvious risk as there is with any brand new offense. The matchup is a good one on paper. The Lions had one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL last year. They upgraded by bringing in Rashaan Melvin and Justin Coleman at corner, but they still lack quality coverage linebackers and should be vulnerable over the middle. One of the biggest aspects of Murray’s game, his rushing ability, might not be a huge factor in week 1. The Lions allowed the 2^nd-fewest rushing yards to opposing QBs last season, and 6 of their games were against QBs who finished in the top-9 in rushing yards at the position (Russ, Josh Allen, Dak, Cam Newton, and Trubisky x 2). While there are safer options out there, none of them will make you feel more alive than starting Murray. He could completely faceplant, or he could have a Cam Newton-esque debut. In his first NFL game, Newton posted 422 passing yards and 3 total TDs (2 passing, 1 rushing).

 

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 1: vs. Den.): The Broncos were a middling run defense a year ago (ranked 16^th in run defense DVOA) and didn’t do much from a personnel standpoint to address it, but new head coach Vic Fangio should get as much out of this unit as possible. Fangio’s defenses have ranked in the top-7 in rushing yards allowed in 5 of his last 8 seasons as a defensive coordinator, and in the top-10 in fewest rushing TDs allowed in 7 of 10 seasons. Jacobs will get a lot of volume, which puts him squarely in play as a RB2/flex option, but he isn’t an automatic start.

 

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 1: vs. Was.): The Eagles enter week 1 as a 10-point favorite over Washington which should bode well for Sanders, but there are reasons for caution. For starters, Sanders is unlikely to open the season as the bellcow back. Head coach Doug Pederson talked openly this week about using a committee – “For us here, it’s worked. And we’ll continue to [use a committee].” Jordan Howard is going to get a share of the work and may get the goal line carries, and Darren Sproles will mix in as well. Washington is also a better run defense than the overall numbers from last year would suggest. Before Alex Smith’s injury torpedoed their season, they were on pace to finish 4^th in the league in points allowed and 5^th in rushing yards allowed. It can’t be completely ignored that they did fall apart after Smith went down, but they have the personnel to be a formidable unit once again. Sanders has the upside to be a great option this week, but the floor is a little lower than you like to see this week.

 

Rookies to Sit:

 

RB Darrell Henderson, LAR (Wk. 1: @Car.): We really have no idea how much Henderson is going to play this week and his DFS price tag is a bit too rich for my blood with that much uncertainty, especially against a tough defense. The Panthers allowed the 5^th-fewest RB points per game last year and the 2^nd-fewest RB receiving yards. Todd Gurley isn’t going to see the same workload he did last year with his knee issues, but the Rams really like Malcolm Brown as well. I’d give this backfield a week two to play out to get a better idea of what the workload split will look like before trusting anyone other than Gurley.

 

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 1: @NYJ): Singletary has been a popular name in fantasy with LeSean McCoy being cut over the weekend, but don’t get carried away and plug him in right away. The Bills are going to ease Singletary into more of a featured role as the season goes on and he likely won’t be more than part of a timeshare early in the year. Frank Gore will probably lead the team in carries, and TJ Yeldon will have a role in the passing game as well. The matchup in week one isn’t a great one. The Jets allowed the 12^th-fewest RB points per game last year and added Quinnen Williams and CJ Mosley to the front seven in the offseason. They should be an improved unit. I’d steer clear of Singletary in week 1.

 

RB Darwin Thompson, KC (Wk. 1: @Jax.): On the other side of the LeSean McCoy news, Darwin Thompson’s outlook got markedly less sunny as the Chiefs signed Shady after Buffalo cut him. Both Thompson and projected starter Damien Williams will take a tumble in early season rankings as the workload split gets murkier. I’d keep Thompson benched until things get a little clearer, but I wouldn’t cut him outside of the shallowest leagues. This backfield reminds me a bit of the Saints in 2017 when they brought in Adrian Peterson and drafted Alvin Kamara. They had a projected starter in his prime in Mark Ingram, and it took 4 weeks for Ingram and Kamara to force Peterson out of the rotation. It’s not crazy to think Darwin and Damien could do the same with McCoy here. McCoy may have some juice left, but it hasn’t really shown itself the past couple years in Buffalo. This is a backfield to monitor closely early in the season.

 

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 1: vs. Atl.): Latavius Murray averaged about 6 and a half carries per game last season in the games that Dalvin Cook was healthy. This should be Cook’s backfield so long as he can keep himself on the field. The Vikings are a 4 and a half point favorite this week so the game script should be positive, but I don’t think there will be enough upside to make Mattison worth a play. Keep on eye on if he gets goal line work though. There’s value in being a touchdown vulture.

 

WR Preston Williams, MIA (Wk. 1: vs. Bal.): The Dolphins are a touchdown underdog in this matchup so they should be throwing a bit and Ryan Fitzpatrick is always willing to let it fly, but it’s still unclear how the wide receiver depth chart will look in week one. Even if Williams logs a lot of snaps, the Ravens outside corners are fantastic and it’ll be an uphill battle to be useful in this one for Preston.

 

WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 1: vs. Was.): If DeSean Jackson is unable to play this week due to his finger injury, JJ would be an intriguing TD dart throw. Unfortunately for him, it sounds like Jackson is going to play. The Eagles have an implied total of 28 points in this one so there is plenty to go around if Arcega-Whiteside does wind up with an expanded role, so watch the injury report on D-Jax.

 

WRs KeeSean Johnson & Andy Isabella, ARI (Wk. 1: vs. Det.): Both players got a notable downgrade in their week 1 outlook when the Cardinals released their depth chart with Michael Crabtree listed as a starter in 3-WR sets. The Cardinals have the offense that we know the least about at this point. They may play a bunch of 4-WR sets like Kingsbury did as a college coach, and they will probably rotate a bunch of receivers into the game. Isabella and Johnson are both likely to log some snaps. One thing we do know about Arizona is that Larry Fitzgerald will be playing in the slot, and the Lions are most vulnerable over the middle. Johnson and Isabella are both no more than dart throws in DFS tournaments in week 1.

 

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 1: @Cle.): Brown missed time in camp with a leg injury, and there are just too many questions about what his usage will look like to trust him in any formats this week. The Titans’ offense isn’t expected to be a volume passing attack, and he’s still got to carve out place in the pecking order with established vets Corey Davis, Adam Humphries and Delanie Walker ahead of him right now.

 

WRs Marquise Brown & Miles Boykin, BAL (Wk. 1: @Mia.): The Ravens are a 6.5-point favorite this week so the passing volume will probably be limited. Hollywood Brown is still working on getting back up to game speed in his recovery from offseason Lisfranc surgery. He’ll play in week one, but he probably won’t have his usual explosiveness early in the season. Boykin could have some sneaky upside in DFS tournaments as a minimum-priced option, but he will probably be squaring off against the best part of the Dolphins’ defense, Xavien Howard. Both guys are best left out of your lineups in week 1.

 

WRs Terry McLaurin & Kelvin Harmon, WAS (Wk. 1: @Phi.): It’s hard to buy into anyone in the Washington passing attack in week one, but the ball will have to go somewhere if Jordan Reed is unable to play due to a concussion. My best guess of where the ball will go is to Trey Quinn, Vernon Davis, and Chris Thompson. McLaurin looks to have won a starting job on the outside to open the season, so he’s the better option of the two rookies this week, but I’d avoid both. Washington will try to establish the running game and keep the Philly offense off the field as much as they can.

 

WR Hunter Renfrow, OAK (Wk. 1: vs. Den.): There will be weeks when Renfrow is a sneaky PPR flex option, but week one against all-world slot corner Chris Harris Jr. isn’t one of them. There’s no reason to try him out this week even with the news that Antonio Brown is being suspended.

 

TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 1: @Ari.): I’d expect Hockenson to be splitting snaps with Jesse James in week one, and the Lions will likely want to go run-heavy to slow down the game and keep Arizona’s high-octane offense sidelined. With Patrick Peterson out and possibly Haason Reddick as well, the offense should run through Kerryon Johnson and the perimeter receivers. Arizona’s defense allowed the 2^nd-fewest tight end points in the league last year. All signs point to Hockenson being better suited for your bench than your lineup this week.

 

TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN (Wk. 1: vs. Atl.): There has been a lot of talk about the Vikings running more 2-TE sets this season with Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith, and that seems to make sense given that their number 3 receiver to open the year is probably Josh Doctson (the alternative is Chad Beebe). I’d still like to see it in action and see Smith make an impact before I trust him in lineups. The Vikings want to be a run-first offense and you know Diggs & Thielen will get their targets. For week 1, other cheap DFS tight end options I’d prefer over Smith include Vernon Davis (if Reed is out), Adam Shaheen (if Burton is out), Will Dissly, and CJ Uzomah.

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

 

RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 1: @Mia.): The Ravens are a 6.5-point road favorite this week against what might be the worst team in the NFL. Their offense projects to be run-heavy even in neutral game scripts. In a game like this, 40+ rushing attempts is very possible for them. Mark Ingram will start to open the year, and Gus Edwards is still on the roster, but I’d expect Hill to be the first guy off the bench and not Gus. Their OC just said today that everyone will play and they’ll ride the hot hand. First round pick Christian Wilkins may provide some help for the Dolphins abysmal run defense, but the entire defensive unit outside of Xavien Howard will be bad this year. Hill has a great chance at an expanded role this week if the Ravens play from ahead as expected. Kenneth Dixon averaged nearly 10 carries per game as the RB2 in Baltimore over the final 5 games last season. If the Ravens play from ahead, Hill probably gets more than that. He’s a bargain in DFS lineups and a playable flex option in deep leagues.

 

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 1: vs. NYG): The luster came off Pollard awfully quick when Zeke signed his mega extension this week, but hopefully you didn’t drop him when you heard the news. The Cowboys didn’t draft Pollard expecting him to assume the lead back role. They drafted him because he’s a dynamic receiving back and Zeke wasn’t all that efficient as a receiver last season. Elliott ranked 15^th in yards per target out of 19 backs who saw at least 50 targets. Obviously with the money Dallas is paying him Zeke is going to have a workhorse role, but that doesn’t mean Pollard won’t have one at all. He may even steal some slot snaps and targets from Randall Cobb. For week 1, I can’t imagine that Zeke will walk right back into a full workload. Reports are out that he will only see 20-25 snaps. If that proves true, Pollard should be in play as a flex option in most formats. The Giants allowed the 8^th-most RB points per game last season and didn’t really make strides to improve that unit. Like Baltimore, Dallas is a touchdown favorite and already leans more run-heavy in neutral game scripts.

 

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 1: vs. Cin.): DK is a risky play this week since he just had his knee scoped a couple weeks ago, but Pete Carroll says he’s good to go and the matchup is an enticing one. His snaps might be limited, but he specializes in the long ball and the Bengals allowed the 3^rd-most completions of 20+ yards and the 4^th-most completions of 40+ yards last year. They haven’t done much to address the secondary. Metcalf will need a deep ball or 2 to return value, but he is an intriguing swing to take in DFS tournaments.

 

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 1: @TB): I list Deebo here solely as a guy to stash on the bench for now. He shouldn’t be a free agent in leagues deeper than 10 teams, but he’s on rosters in just 18% of Yahoo and ESPN leagues. It’s only a matter of time before Samuel makes his way into a starter’s role in 3-WR sets, but for now he may be running behind Kendrick Bourne. That makes him a guy to leave on the bench this week, even in a juicy matchup against the Bucs.

 

WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 1: @LAC): Campbell lands in the same boat as Deebo. He’s rostered in even fewer leagues than Samuel – 7% of ESPN leagues and 6% on Yahoo. The Colts and Frank Reich have been raving about him throughout the summer and he should be a big part of their plans this year. He was limited to just one preseason game by a hamstring issue, but the Colts have said that Campbell won’t be limited at all in week one. He should open the year as their starting slot receiver over Chester Rogers. I’d still like to see what his usage will look like in this offense before throwing him into a lineup. He didn’t log a single preseason snap with Jacoby Brissett under center and the Colts might play more 2-TE sets than the average team with Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron on the roster. Outside of TY Hilton and Marlon Mack, the Colts are an offense to monitor early in the season before trusting their players in your lineups, but if Campbell is on the wire right now someone is going to get a great in-season pickup when they snag him.

 

WR Damion Willis, CIN (Wk. 1: @Sea.): Willis is an interesting name because he came out of nowhere this summer to take a starting spot across from Tyler Boyd in the Bengals’ offense with AJ Green sidelined. He was a vertical threat at Troy and should be a nice complement to possession receiver Boyd until AJG returns. Willis is a big target at 6’3”, 204, and had a 65^th percentile speed score as a prospect. He’s worth stashing in deeper leagues in case he flashes in week 1.

 

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 1: @Oak.): The Oakland Raiders have been notoriously bad at covering the TE position in recent years. Over the past 5 years, they’ve allowed the 13^th, 3^rd, 9^th, 6^th and 3^rd -most TE points per game. They return largely the same personnel at safety and outside linebacker from that group that allowed the 3^rd -most last year. They did add Lamarcus Joyner, but this will still be a sub-standard unit. Joe Flacco loves to target the tight end position – 21% of his career throws have gone to the position and Fant’s biggest competition on the roster is Jeff Heuerman who saw a career-high 48 targets last season. Coach Vic Fangio said this week that Fant will be “out there a lot” against the Raiders. If he sees 6+ targets he’ll prove to be a bargain at his $3,400 DraftKings price tag.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep an eye on the injury report through the week and make sure not to start anyone who is inactive. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything included in the article, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully you survived the bye-pocalypse last week and are still in pretty good shape in the playoff picture. Week 10 featured some breakout rookie performances. Darius Slayton and Deebo Samuel put up monster games due to injuries to the other weapons on their teams. DK Metcalf and Irv Smith matched their career high with 6 and 5 catches respectively and Andy Isabella saw his role expand in Arizona with a 3-77 line. Josh Jacobs and Marquise Brown each got in the end zone as well. The week wasn’t as friendly to Devin Singletary and David Montgomery but both managed to post reasonable performances. There are a few more byes to get through this week, so let’s look at what rookies could help you plug some holes…

 

Rookies to Start:

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 11: vs. Cin.): Look, you don’t need me to tell you to start Jacobs this week, but I want to emphasize that he’s one of the best chalk plays in DFS this week. He’s topped 10 PPR points in 6 straight games and has been a top-12 RB in 4 of those contests. This week he gets to face a Bengals’ defense that has allowed the 4^th-most RB points per game and ranks 29^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. The Raiders are a 10.5-point favorite and should be running a ton. Jacobs is probably a top-5 RB play this week.

 

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 11: @Mia.): Singletary was badly underutilized last week, but I don’t expect the Bills to repeat that mistake in Miami. Devin’s been playing about two-thirds of the Bills’ offensive snaps for 3 weeks running now, and the Dolphins allow the 5^th-most RB points per game and rank 30^th in run defense DVOA. Although Miami has been playing at a higher level lately, I expect the Bills to win easily. Frank Gore may even have some value as a flex option this week, but Singletary should be a very safe RB2 option.

 

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 11: vs. Hou.): Brown posted his best fantasy game since week 2 last week, and that came in a game where the Ravens’ starters didn’t see the field in the last 20 minutes of a blowout win. The Texans are much more likely to keep the game close than the Bengals were, and their defense allows the 3^rd-most points per game to opposing WRs. Brown is listed as questionable for this game, but he did get in a limited practice on Friday and seems likely to play. Keep on eye on the injury report to make sure that Brown won’t be hampered too badly, but if he’s close to 100% he should be right on the edge of WR2/3 with upside for plenty more.

 

Borderline Rookies:

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 11: @SF): Murray surprisingly finished as the QB6 when he faced the 49ers just 2 weeks ago, but I wouldn’t be confident in a repeat performance. The 49ers will be at home in this one, and they still have allowed the fewest passing yards per game in the league and allowed the 2^nd-fewest QB points per game. Murray has benefitted from the recent emergence of Andy Isabella and has consistently shown the upside to be a reasonable fill-in if your QB is on a bye this week (Russ Wilson, Aaron Rodgers), but I wouldn’t play him over any of the high-end QB1s. He’s reasonably priced on DraftKings as just the 12^th-highest priced signal caller at $6,100, but I’d be more inclined to use him in a cash game than a tournament.

 

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 11: vs. NE): Sanders feels a little bit like a trap this week in season-long leagues. He seems poised to be the lead back for the Eagles with Jordan Howard extremely questionable and the Pats rank just a middling 14^th in run defense DVOA. Still, the Patriots have allowed the fewest RB points per game on the year and Doug Pederson has always preferred a running back committee over a workhorse. Sanders should lead that committee, but newly signed Jay Ajayi should see some early down work as well and Boston Scott may mix in a bit on passing downs. Ajayi knows the offense so there shouldn’t be any ramp up time needed to get him in there if he’s healthy. I’d expect Sanders to get somewhere between 50 and 65 percent of the RB touches. His production has been on the upswing lately and that volume should make him an RB2 this week, but the tough matchup makes him less than a sure thing. He’s should be a staple in DFS lineups this week at just $4,100 on DraftKings (the 48^th-highest priced running back).

 

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 11: @LAR): Despite his down game against the Lions last week, Monty has averaged 19 carries for 78 yards and a TD per game on the ground over the last 3 weeks and 17.7 PPR points per game in that stretch. He’s been less than efficient as a runner with fewer than 4 yards per carry in all but 2 games this year, but he has been able to get by on volume. The hope is that he’s able to do the same this week. The Rams allow the 11^th-fewest RB points per game and rank 3^rd in run defense DVOA, and Montgomery is banged up and shaping up as a game-time decision for Sunday night. If he ends up playing, Monty is probably a low end RB2 or high end RB3 this week, but if you don’t have a backup plan in case he doesn’t go, I’d probably sit Montgomery for someone who plays earlier in the day.

 

RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 11: vs. Dal.): Johnson has cleared the concussion protocol and should return to his role as the lead back of the Detroit committee this week. JD McKissic failed to do enough to wrest the job away with just 55 yards on 16 touches against Chicago. Johnson really wasn’t much better, but he did play 12 of the first 15 snaps of the game before getting injured. If he returns to that role as expected, he’ll be in play as an RB3/flex option due to volume. The Cowboys have allowed the 13^th-most RB points per game and rank 15^th in run defense DVOA. If Detroit can stay in the game, Johnson should see in the range of 12-15 touches. If they fall behind, McKissic may see a bigger share of the work.

 

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 11: vs. Ari.): With Emmanuel Sanders and George Kittle out on Monday night, we finally got to see what Deebo would look like as the featured weapon of the passing game, and it was impressive. Samuel finished with 8 catches for 112 yards on 11 targets and made plays throughout the game. Sanders and Kittle both seem on the fence for this week, and if they both sit Samuel is a strong WR3 play against a Cardinals’ defense that allows the 9^th-most WR points per game. If either or both of those guys play, Samuel becomes more of an upside fill-in option if you’re looking for bye replacements. He’s flashed the ability to be a playmaker in this offense. He just needs to keep seeing the opportunity. He’ll be a steal in DFS lineups at just $4,000 in DraftKings if Kittle and Sanders sit.

 

WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 11: vs. NYJ): It’s hard to have complete faith in McLaurin given how Dwayne Haskins has played thus far, but this is the best possible matchup for him to face to get back on track. Interim coach Bill Callahan plans to move McLaurin around the formation a bit more going forward; Haskins for the first time has had a full week of practice knowing he is going to start a game; and the Jets’ defense is extremely banged up and has given up 10 receiving TDs to opposing WRs in their last 3 games (vs. Mia, Jax, and NYG). If McLaurin doesn’t smash in this spot, it’s hard to envision a spot where he will produce going forward. I can understand if you’re hesitant to trust him after he’s put up just 9 catches for 89 yards in his last 3 games, but I’d be willing to run him out there as a WR3 this week.

 

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 11: @Cle.): Johnson has proven to be a useful fantasy WR3/flex option a handful of times this year, and he should fall into that range again in Cleveland. There has been a little bit of volatility with Johnson as James Washington has started to emerge in recent weeks and the return of James Conner likely means a more run-heavy game plan. The Browns have been an above average defense against WRs, allowing the 12th-fewest PPR points per game to opposing perimeter receivers, but since the return of Denzel Ward & Greedy Williams in week 8 they've allowed strong games to Julian Edelman (8-78-2), Courtland Sutton (5-56-1), and John Brown (5-77). The matchup isn't an ideal one, but it isn't prohibitive either. I wouldn't be excited to use Diontae as a fill-in for a 10-team league, but you could do worse in leagues of 12 or more teams. Johnson has been good for 6 or so targets most weeks, and he's made a habit of making the most of his opportunities.

 

UPDATE: Johnson finished with 2 catches for 17 yards on 4 targets before leaving the game early in the 2^nd half after suffering a concussion.

 

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 11: @Min.): The Broncos have made a point to get Fant more involved since the Emmanuel Sanders trade. He was having a hard time breaking out while splitting reps with Jeff Heuerman at tight end, but with Heuerman injured the past 2 games Fant has seen his snap share climb to 82% and 86% in the past 2 contests. Heuerman is doubtful for week 11. The Vikings allow the 14^th-fewest TE points per game, but that ranking comes largely on the fact that they haven’t allowed a tight end to score a touchdown. They’ve allowed 4 tight ends to reach double-digit PPR points this year and allowed both Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz to clear 9 when they faced the Eagles. There is some fear that Brandon Allen starting at QB puts a cap on Fant’s ceiling, but he did manage a long TD in Allen’s one start so far. While that play may not be predictive of what Fant will do going forward, he’s right on the cusp of being a TE1 option this week.

 

TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 11: vs. Dal.): Hockenson may finally be turning the corner in his rookie season. In the past two weeks against Oakland and Chicago he’s been targeted 13 times and seen his two highest yardage totals since week 1. The Cowboys have been vulnerable to tight ends, allowing the 4^th-most points per game to the position and Jeff Driskel was able to find TJ 3 times for 47 yards last Sunday. I like Hockenson’s chances to break 50 yards this week, and he could find himself on the cusp of being a top-10 play in this one.

 

Rookies to Sit:

QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 11: vs. NYJ): The upside is there for Haskins to surprise this week and I could see rolling the dice on him if you were desperate for a QB2, but he hasn’t shown nearly enough to be trusted in lineups. Haskins has averaged less than 6.5 yards per attempt and has 0 TDs and 4 picks in 3 appearances. I like his chances to throw his first career TD pass, but I wouldn’t count on him to approach the 26 fantasy points per game the Jets have given up to QBs over the past 3 weeks. Like I said, the matchup is great. The question is whether you trust Haskins to take advantage.

 

RB Qadree Ollison, ATL (Wk. 11: @Car.): Ollison might get his first touches of the year this week with Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith both out, but I don’t expect him to be involved enough to be fantasy relevant with both Brian Hill and Kenjon Barner ahead of him on the depth chart. He’s still another injury away from being worth scooping up off the wire.

 

RB Darrell Henderson, LAR (Wk. 11: vs. Chi.): With Malcolm Brown back from injury last week Henderson was limited to just 8 offensive snaps while Brown played 12. He’d need an injury to Brown or Gurley to go back to being a usable option.

 

RB Ryquell Armstead, JAX (Wk. 11: @Ind.): The last time we saw Armstead, he was putting up 5 catches for 65 yards back in week 9. Don’t read anything into those numbers. All the catches came in garbage time, and Armstead played just 9 offensive snaps in that contest. He won’t see that kind of passing game work again all year without a Fournette injury. He remains just a handcuff for the time being.

 

WR Olabisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 11: vs. Den.): Adam Thielen will sit again this week, but Johnson will likely be no more than a TD dart throw. He’s been playing more than 70% of the offensive snaps for the last 4 games but has just 9 catches for 96 yards and 2 TDs to show for it. The Broncos allow the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game. With Minnesota favored by 10 points I don’t expect a lot of passing volume, so if you’re playing Johnson in any format it’s with the hope that he gets in the end zone.

 

WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 11: @LAC): Hardman found the end zone again last week on a long play but has played just 38 offensive snaps in the last 3 weeks. He’s managed to find ways to produce with a line of 3-118-2 on just 3 targets in those weeks, but the limited snaps give him a legitimate goose egg floor. His speed and his QB give him weekly big play upside, but the Chargers have given up just 2 pass plays of 40+ yards all season long.

 

WR KeeSean Johnson, ARI (Wk. 11: @SF): Johnson did see his playing time increase a bit in week 10, but he’s been targeted just 14 times in his last 4 games and is averaging just 9 yards per catch. He gets a tough matchup this week against a San Francisco defense that allows the 5^th-fewest WR points per game. He did find the end zone the last time the Cards faced the 49ers, but it was his only TD of the season. I’d avoid KeeSean this week.

 

WRs Jakobi Meyers & N’Keal Harry, NE (Wk. 11: @Phi.): This is a plus matchup for the New England receivers with Philly allowing the 8^th-most WR points per game, but with Mohamed Sanu fully integrated into the offense Meyers played just 1 offensive snap in week 9 ahead of the bye. N’Keal Harry is poised to be active for the first time this season Sunday, but it remains to be seen what kind of role he’ll have. New England seems to have their 3-WR sets pretty well figured out, so I’d like to see how N’Keal gets utilized before considering him in lineups.

 

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 11: @Mia.): Knox had his best game in weeks last Sunday against the Browns, but it was a game that the Bills trailed for most of. There has been little in-between for Knox this year. He has 3 games with 50+ yards, and fewer that 25 in every other game. 2 of his 3 strong games came in Buffalo losses. The Bills are favored by a touchdown this week. There is a chance that Knox has a nice game, but I would bet this is more likely to be a game below 25 yards than one over 50. The Dolphins haven’t been good this year, but they’ve been middling against tight ends, allowing the 15^th-most points per game to the position. You could do worse than Knox this week, but you could almost certainly do better.

 

TE Foster Moreau, OAK (Wk. 11: vs. Cin.): You know the drill with Moreau. He needs a touchdown to be helpful, and while the Bengals have an abysmal defense, they’ve given up just 3 touchdowns to opposing tight ends on the year. Moreau is no more likely to find the end zone than Darren Waller (both have 3 scores on the year), and that means he’s a dicey TD dart throw this week.

 

Rookies on byes in Week 11: QB Daniel Jones, NYG, WR DK Metcalf, SEA, WR AJ Brown, TEN, WR Darius Slayton, NYG, TE Jace Sternberger, GB

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Ryan Finley, CIN (Wk. 11: @Oak.): Finley acquitted himself fairly well in his NFL debut despite facing a dangerous Ravens’ defense without AJ Green. He already has more TD passes on the year than Dwayne Haskins. This week he gets to face an Oakland defense that has allowed multiple TD passes in 6 straight games and has allowed the 3^rd highest passer rating in the league. He’s obviously a risky option making just his second pro start, but the matchup is fantastic and as just the 27^th-highest priced QB on DraftKings he’s got some nice DFS upside this week. If you’re desperate for a QB2 I’d prefer Finley over Haskins, Driskel, or Brandon Allen.

 

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 11: @Det.): When Dallas plays from ahead Pollard gets opportunities, and this looks like a week where they’ll play from ahead. Dallas is a touchdown favorite with Jeff Driskel expected to make his second consecutive start, and the Lions allow the 2^nd-most RB points per game. If you’re desperate at running back due to injuries or byes and were unable to grab Brian Hill off waivers, Pollard is a decent option who could post a solid day in garbage time. He’s had 41 carries and 7 targets in the Cowboys’ 5 wins and averaged 19.6 offensive snaps in those games.

 

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 11: vs. Den.): Minnesota is favored by double-digits, so Mattison is a safe bet for 5-6 points with a chance at more if he finds the end zone. In Minnesota’s 7 wins, he’s averaged 10 carries for 50.4 yards, and has finished between 49 and 63 yards in 6 of them. He’s started to see a target here and there as well, but the real upside would come from a late TD. Denver’s defense isn’t a pushover, ranking 9^th in run defense DVOA, but Mattison’s production has been almost automatic in their wins. If you like the rest of your lineup and are trying to fill one flex spot in a deep league, it might make more sense to go with the safe handful of points Mattison gives you rather than rolling with a more volatile option like Derrius Guice, JD McKissic, or Nyheim Hines.

 

WR Hunter Renfrow, OAK (Wk. 11: vs. Cin.): The Raiders should be able to do whatever they want against the Bengals’ hapless defense, and although the run game will be their preferred method of attack there will be an opportunity for Renfrow to make an impact. Hunter has gone 14-184-2 on 16 targets in the past 3 weeks, and the Bengals have been shredded by slot receivers this year. They’ve given up solid days to Cole Beasley (8-48), Larry Fitzgerald (6-58), Dede Westbrook (6-103), and Cooper Kupp (7-220-1). Renfrow is a decent bet for double-digit PPR points.

 

WR Andy Isabella, ARI (Wk. 11: @SF): I mention Isabella here more as a stash than a guy to play this week. At just $3,500 on DraftKings there is a case to be made for him as a cheap dart throw in DFS tournaments, but his role as a downfield threat could be useful down the stretch in season-long leagues if his playing time keeps increasing. His offensive snaps have gone from 1 to 13 to 26 over the past 3 games, and in the past 2 he’s turned 4 targets into 4 catches for 166 yards and a TD. He’s like Mecole Hardman in that his production is going to come from big yardage plays, but unlike Hardman his playing time is increasing rather than decreasing.

TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN (Wk. 11: vs. Den.): Just like last week, the Vikings face a defense that is tougher on wide receivers than it is on tight ends. The Broncos are still somewhat tough on tight ends, allowing the 12^th-fewest points per game to the position, but they’re stifling against receivers. Smith managed 5 catches last week and played a season-high 74% of the offensive snaps. I’d expect a similar role this week. Look for Smith to get a handful of targets and possibly find his way into the end zone. I like his upside again this week if you need a fill-in in really deep leagues.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! For most of you we’ve made it to the final week of the fantasy regular season. You know where you stand in the playoff picture and know what you need to do to extend your season. It also means the end of the NFL bye weeks, which may make it harder to find use for some of the rookies that were invaluable fill-ins over the last few weeks. Week 13 does boast some favorable matchups for the rookie crop. Miles Sanders, David Montgomery and Josh Jacobs all face off with defenses in the bottom-5 in the NFL at limiting RB points, and every notable rookie tight end other than Noah Fant gets to face off with a bottom-8 tight end defense. Plenty of rookies may dazzle this week.

Regardless of upcoming opponent, let’s take a look at what to expect from the rookie crop this week on Thanksgiving. I’ll dive into the rest of the rookies that play Sunday and Monday later, so stay tuned for that… All of the players for Week 13 are now listed.

 

Rookies to Start:

 

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 13: @Dal.): Singletary is getting close to being an every-week fantasy starter. He’s put up 75+ rushing yards in 3 of his past 4 games, and this week faces a Dallas defense that ranks 18^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. His usage is secure every week, and he has the ability to be a game-changer on the Thanksgiving DFS slate at a reasonable $5,800 price tag. The only rookie running back I’d consider ahead of him this week is Josh Jacobs.

 

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 13: @Det.): I know playing Monty would feel like playing with fire on Turkey Day, but on paper it’s probably the right move. The Bears are almost certainly going to handle the Lions in the early game Thursday as Detroit starts David Blough at QB. Montgomery’s efficiency has been BRUTAL lately, but he’s got 15+ touches in 5 straight games and the Lions are allowing the 2^nd-most PPR points per game to opposing running backs. If you have Montgomery, it probably makes sense to hold your nose and put him in the lineup.

 

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 13: @KC): Jacobs is coming off his worst fantasy game of the year in a surprising blowout loss to the Jets, but you have to go back to the well again this week. His ceiling won’t be as high as it typically is with the Raiders a 10.5-point underdog, but he’ll have plenty of room to run while the game is competitive. The Chiefs allow the most RB PPR points per game and rank 30^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Jacobs went for 9.9 PPR points the first time he faced KC (99 rushing yards). I expect he’ll reach double-digits in this one.

 

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 13: @Mia.): Jordan Howard has been ruled out for another week, and Sanders has played more than 80% of the offensive snaps with Howard sidelined the last two games.  Against Miami that should result in a strong fantasy day for him. The Dolphins have given up the 5^th-most RB PPR points per game and rank 29^th in run defense DVOA. The Eagles have been hesitant to give Sanders a huge workload. He hasn’t topped 15 touches in any game this year. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Jay Ajayi getting a bit more work this week if the Eagles are playing from ahead (they’re a 10-point favorite), but if Sanders gets about 15 touches in this matchup, he should be at least a low-end RB2 this week.

 

WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 13: vs. GB): It looks like the Giants will be without Golden Tate, Evan Engram and Rhett Ellison this week. That leaves Sterling Shepard and Slayton as the top two options in the passing game (outside of Saquon of course) against a defense that ranks 19^th in pass defense DVOA. Slayton has been consistently targeted down the field, and no team in the NFL has allowed more 40+ yard pass plays than the Green Bay Packers. There are likely safer options than Slayton this week, but this a great spot for another big game for the Auburn product. He may tangle with Jaire Alexander more than I’d like him to, but I still think Slayton comes up with a nice game.

 

Borderline Rookies:

 

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 13: vs. LAR): Murray has been playing his best football of the season the last few weeks, and this week gets a reasonable matchup with the Rams. LA ranks 20^th in pass defense DVOA, and the strongest part of their pass defense, Jalen Ramsey, isn’t likely to venture into the slot to cover Larry Fitzgerald and/or Christian Kirk. Murray has really started to use his legs over the past several weeks, topping 30 rushing yards in 5 of his last 7 games, and the Rams are a week removed from letting Lamar Jackson run for 95. With all 32 teams playing, Murray is going to be more of a low-end QB1 this week rather than locked-in starter, but the upside is there for a strong week.

 

RB Benny Snell, PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): The Steelers have made the switch to Devlin Hodges at QB this week, and the last time Hodges started they leaned heavily on the run game with 16 rushing attempts in 25 first half offensive plays against the Chargers. James Conner is expected to miss another week, and Snell worked as the starter last week, handling 21 of the team’s 38 rushing attempts. Kerrith Whyte had a nice performance last week as well, but he carried just 6 times and played just 7 offensive snaps. Snell is the Steeler back you want. The Browns have limited opposing backs to the 13^th-fewest PPR points per game, but they rank 22^nd in run defense DVOA. Snell seems like a sure bet for 15+ carries against that defense. I like him as a flex option this week. He is a better option in non-PPR formats though.

 

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 13: vs. Min.): I believe Metcalf is going to fall on the right side of the borderline this week. The Vikings have struggled to contain all kinds of different receivers this year, allowing the 4^th-most PPR points per game to the position. They’ve given up a decent number of splash plays, allowing the 11^th-most 20+ yard pass plays on the year. Tyler Lockett is still a little banged up, and Metcalf has averaged 7.8 targets per game over the last 5 contests. There is still some degree of boom-or-bust to Metcalf’s game, but I like him to finish as a WR3 or better this week.

 

WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 13: @Car.): McLaurin is more of a floor play than ceiling as long as Haskins is the QB, but the matchup this week puts him in play. The Panthers overall pass defense has been decent, ranking 8^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve given up the 5^th-most WR points per game. McLaurin has been the target on 21.3% of Haskins’ pass attempts this season and has averaged 7.8 yards per target. He’s averaged about a 4-70 line the past two weeks, and I think he’ll be in that ballpark again in this plus matchup. He’s a reasonably safe WR3/4 floor play with an outside chance at a ceiling week.

 

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 13: @Ind.): Brown has been the epitome of boom-or-bust this season. He’s topped 80 receiving yards in 4 contests and been held under 30 yards in 6 of them. The Titans’ offense as a whole has been more productive in the passing game since changing QBs. They’re averaging 32 more passing yards and 0.6 more passing TDs per game in Tannehill’s starts compared to Mariota’s (excluding the game Mariota was benched during). Brown leads the team in targets from Tannehill, and in yards per target from him (min. 6 targets). The Colts are an average pass defense. Brown is worth a roll of the dice if you’re an underdog in a must-win matchup.

 

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 13: vs. LAC): Fant put up a pretty miserable fantasy day in week 12 with the whole Broncos’ offense doing next to nothing. He was targeted 5 times but totaled just 3 catches for 14 yards. It’s worth noting that the return of Jeff Heuerman from injury did ding his snap share a little bit. Heuerman had been out all 3 games since the Manny Sanders trade prior to week 12, and Fant played 82, 86, and 86 percent of the offensive snaps in those games. That number was down to 74% in week 12 with Heuerman back on the field. Fant is still the tight end featured in the passing game, but the Chargers allow the 10^th-fewest PPR points to the position. His usage keeps him in the conversation of being a top-12 tight end option this week but he’ll be a volatile option like most borderline tight ends. The likelihood that Drew Lock starts this week gives Fant even more uncertainty.

 

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 13: @Dal.): Knox played above 70% of the offensive snaps in consecutive weeks for the first time all year in weeks 11 & 12. If that continues the targets are going to follow. The Cowboys allow the 8^th-most PPR points per game to tight ends, and the Bills are a touchdown underdog and will likely have to throw it more than they like to. If there was ever a week to take a leap of faith on Knox, this is probably it.

 

Rookies to Sit:

 

QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 13: vs. GB): Jones has been productive of late, putting up 11 TDs and 1 pick over the last 4 games while adding 28.5 rushing yards per game in that span, but turnovers and sacks have continued to be problems for him. He’s taken 23 sacks and lost 7 fumbles in his past 5 games. The Packers have just a middling pass rush, but so do the Jets and Cardinals who got to Jones a combined 14 times. Green Bay allows just the 10^th-fewest QB points per game and Jones will be without Golden Tate and Evan Engram. Engram has been out several weeks, but Tate has averaged 8 targets per game since returning from suspension. Jones is only a low-end QB2 option this week.

 

QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 13: @Car.): Haskins failed to make good on his opportunity last week against one of the worst QB defenses in the league, so there’s no reason to trust him against a much tougher opponent this week. The Panthers allow the 11^th-fewest QB points per game and rank 8^th in pass defense DVOA. In 3 starts this year, Haskins has averaged 171 passing yards per game and totaled 2 touchdowns and 3 turnovers. There just isn’t a ceiling to chase here right now.

 

QB Devlin Hodges, PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): The Steelers have made the switch from Mason Rudolph to Devlin “Duck” Hodges, but he’s not likely to be a valuable fantasy starter this week. Pittsburgh leaned heavily on the run game in Hodges’ first start, and I’d expect them to do the same here. Pittsburgh ran the ball on 16 of their first 25 offensive plays in Hodges’ first start. Cleveland ranks 9^th in pass defense DVOA. Hodges’ best bet for fantasy production would be on the ground. He ran for nearly 30 yards in his first start, and Cleveland has allowed the 4^th-most QB rushing yards per game and coughed up 4 rushing scores to the position. I’d still look elsewhere this week, even in 2QB formats.

 

QB Drew Lock, DEN (Wk. 13: vs. LAC): Signs are pointing to Drew Lock making his first start of the year Sunday. He’s been taking the majority of the 1^st string reps in practice, but I’d rather see what he can do before pulling the trigger on him in any lineups. The Broncos want to run first and foremost, and the Chargers rank 27^th in run defense DVOA. The Broncos likely want to limit Lock to fewer than 30 attempts if possible. I’d steer clear until we see how Lock looks in real game action.

 

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 13: @Sea.): The Vikings have played 3 consecutive close games that were decided by 4 points or less, and Mattison has averaged just 8 offensive snaps per game in those contests. The Vikings are a field goal underdog this week and Seattle allows the 10^th-fewest RB points per game. Mattison probably gets a handful of carries, but not enough to trust in lineups.

 

RBs Patrick Laird & Myles Gaskin, MIA (Wk. 13: vs. Phi.): Laird did see a jump in playing time last week as expected, but he was still limited to just 37% of the offensive snaps. He played one snap less than Kalen Ballage, and Gaskin played just enough to keep Laird’s usage from being exciting. With all 32 teams playing this week, you shouldn’t be scrounging the wire for a guy who may get a handful of targets on one of the worst offenses in the league. The Eagles allow the 9^th-fewest PPR points per game to running backs.

 

RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 13: @SF): I only mention Hill at all because he got 8 carries on Monday night. There’s nothing to read into his usage. Baltimore won by 39 points, so he got some late run. It’s HIGHLY unlikely that scenario repeats itself in San Francisco.

 

RB Ryquell Armstead, JAX (Wk. 13: vs. TB): In two games since posting a 5-65 receiving line against Houston in week 9 Armstead has just 3 touches for 19 yards. The Bucs rank 1^st in run defense DVOA and allow the 3^rd-fewest RB PPR points per game. Even if Ryquell does get a handful of touches this week he’s unlikely to do much with them.

 

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 13: vs. SF): Brown found the end zone twice last week, and probably is still in consideration for your lineup this week if you have him, but on paper this looks like a down week for Hollywood. The 49ers rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and allow the 7^th-fewest WR PPR points per game. This week’s matchup is going to be a rainy one in Baltimore, and if you play Brown it’s with the hope he hits a couple big plays. San Francisco has allowed just 18 pass plays of 20+ yards in 11 games. No other team in the league has allowed fewer than 23. I get it that Brown may be your best option this week, but I want to make it clear how dicey he is against the 49ers.

 

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 13: @Bal.): Samuel has been breaking out over the past few weeks, but the return of George Kittle last Sunday resulted in Samuel being targeted just twice. He did turn those targets into 50 yards and a TD, but similar usage this week is unlikely to have a similar return. The Ravens secondary has been fantastic since trading for Marcus Peters. They’ve given up just 2 WR scores in their past 6 games, and there is a 100% chance of rain in Baltimore during the game. I know there will be temptation to play Samuel after he put up 19.2, 21.4, and 13 PPR points in his last 3 games, but I think you’ll be better served to look elsewhere this week.

 

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): Johnson may very well lead the Steelers in targets this week, but I’d rather not rely on him if you need a win this week. The Steelers are likely to lean on the run game, and the Browns allow the 11^th-fewest WR points per game. Johnson has just 5 catches for 46 yards in the past 2 games. Meanwhile James Washington has put up 6-147-1 including a 79-yard TD catch from Devlin Hodges. Washington seems like the higher upside play this week. Johnson has some upside this week, but it’s very possible the Steelers total less than 200 passing yards which caps his ceiling.

 

WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 13: vs. Oak.): Tyreek Hill is fully expected to play this week after exiting KC’s last game with a hamstring issue just 7 snaps in. Mecole played 52 snaps in that game but had played just 38 snaps total in the 3 games prior, totaling 3-118-2 on 3 targets and adding a rush for 7 yards in those games. That’s an incredible level of production given the limited playing time, but Hardman remains just a big play dart throw as long as Hill is in the lineup. The Raiders have been burnable, giving up more 20+ yard pass plays than any other team in the league, but I’d still try for a safer option this week.

 

WR N’Keal Harry, NE (Wk. 13: @Hou.): Harry made a spectacular TD catch last week and played more than 80% of the offensive snaps, but the return of Phillip Dorsett this week should push him back to the bench. He’ll play some, but not enough to warrant fantasy consideration even in this decent matchup. I’d look to Jakobi Meyers if you’re looking for a rookie Patriot pass catcher this week.

 

WR Kelvin Harmon, WAS (Wk. 13: @Car.): Harmon has finally started to make an impact on the field the last couple weeks with Paul Richardson battling an injury. Richardson returned last week but played just 15 snaps to Harmon’s 38. Harmon has been targeted 6 times in each of the last 2 contests, but he’s been mostly utilized in the short & intermediate part of the field. His sneaky PPR upside the last two weeks was mostly due to so many receivers being on byes. With all 32 teams playing and Richardson another week removed from injury there just isn’t enough upside to try Harmon this week.

 

WRs Andy Isabella & KeeSean Johnson, ARI (Wk. 13: vs. LAR):  Johnson is an obvious sit with just 4 catches for 36 yards on 9 targets in the past 3 weeks, but I’d be opposed to starting Isabella too. He’s getting some deep targets on his limited snaps, but he may have to match up with Jalen Ramsey a bit in this one. He’s still in play as a cheap DFS tournament dart throw, but I’d probably look elsewhere this week. The Rams have allowed the 2^nd-fewest pass plays of 20+ yards in the league and have given up just 4 passes of 40+ on the season.

 

RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 13: vs. Chi.): Johnson was already producing in a limited capacity before the Lions brought in Bo Scarbrough, but Ty’s opportunity should be limited even further going forward. Bo has become the clear leader of the Lions RB committee, getting almost all of the early down work. Johnson is left fighting with JD McKissic for leftovers. Johnson would be lucky to top 35% of the offensive snaps this week against a Bears’ defense allowing the 14^th-most RB points per game, and even if he does reach that number, it’s highly unlikely he reaches a usable point total.

 

TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 13: vs. Chi.): Hockenson hasn’t produced much fantasy goodness in quite some time. He hasn’t topped 10 PPR points since week 4, and he’s finished under 3.5 PPR points in 3 of his last 5 games. He gets a favorable matchup this week against a Bears’ team that has allowed the 7^th-most points to the position per game, but in week 12 he combined his lack of production with a drop in playing time. It was the first time all year he played fewer than 50% of the Lions’ offensive snaps, giving way to Logan Thomas at times. He was playing through an injury, which may explain the dip in snaps, but he will still be banged up on the short week this week. His limited playing time and limited production makes him almost impossible to trust this week.

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

 

WR Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 13: @Hou.): Phillip Dorsett is set to return this week, but it sounds like Mohamed Sanu could be out again. Sanu has been playing primarily in the slot, so it’s Meyers who is likely to play in his stead. Houston has struggled to defend the slot, allowing massive games to Michael Thomas (10-123) and Keenan Allen (13-183-2) who spend a decent amount of time in the slot, and gave up respectable games to less heralded slot receivers Jarius Wright (5-59), Mohamed Sanu (5-42-1) and Hunter Renfrow (4-88-1). At just $3,300 on DraftKings, Meyers has a chance to easily outproduce his price tag. The Texans rank just 26^th in pass defense DVOA.

 

WR Bisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 13: @Sea.): It seems that Adam Thielen may return Monday night, and if he does, I don’t expect Johnson to do much. He hasn’t topped 4 targets in any game that Thielen played from start to finish. Unfortunately, we may not know if Thielen is playing until Monday night. If you’re considering Thielen this week, it makes some sense to scoop Johnson off the waiver wire to be safe. The Vikes are a 3-point underdog on Monday night, so they’ll likely be throwing more than 30 times and you could make a case for Bisi as a TD dart throw even if Thielen returns. If Thielen does sit, Johnson becomes more of a WR4 type, but one with enough upside to not kill you this week and be a potential steal in DFS tournaments at just $3,800 in DraftKings. The Seahawks aren’t a WR defense to target, but they aren’t one to avoid either allowing the 14^th-most PPR points per game to the position.

 

WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 13: vs. Ten.): Campbell’s status is still up in the air for Sunday, but if he plays, he has a chance at a surprising day. TY Hilton has already been ruled out, and the last time Campbell played with Hilton sidelined he was targeted 8 times. Eric Ebron also played in that game, and he’s since gone to injured reserve. The Titans rank 23^rd in pass defense DVOA and Campbell is basically free in DFS ($3,200 on DraftKings).

 

WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 13: @Mia.): It looks like there is a real chance that Alshon Jeffery returns this week, but if he doesn’t there is some solid upside for Arcega-Whiteside. The Dolphins are the worst team in the league in pass defense DVOA and they allow the 8^th-most fantasy points per game to the position. JJ was targeted 5 times and played 71% of the snaps in week 12 as the number 2 receiver to Jordan Matthews, and Matthews was cut this week. Nelson Agholor is also on the mend and could be back. If both he and Jeffery return, you shouldn’t consider JJ, but if Alshon or both sit, JJ becomes an upside option for DFS tournaments and deep leagues.

 

TE Kaden Smith, NYG (Wk. 13: vs. GB): Smith filled in as the Giants’ full-time tight end in week 12 with Evan Engram and Rhett Ellison both sidelined. If both are out again, Smith would make a really interesting spot play this week. The Packers have given up a 60-yard receiving day to a tight end in 5 straight games and coughed up 5 scores to the position in those games. I wouldn’t expect a monster game out of Smith after he averaged just 3.4 yards per catch last week, but he should have a great chance at 5+ catches if both Ellison and Engram sit again. He could be a steal in DFS tournaments at just $2,900 on DraftKings.

 

TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN (Wk. 13: @Sea.): There is a chance the Vikings play without Adam Thielen again on Monday, and the Seahawks allow the 4^th-most TE points per game. Seattle has surrendered big fantasy days to 2^nd tier and lower tight ends CJ Uzomah (4-66), Gerald Everett (7-136), and Ricky Seals-Jones (3-47-1). It may be tough to pull the trigger on Smith given that we won’t know Thielen’s status until Monday, but he could be a great option for Monday showdown DFS slates ($3,200 on DraftKings), and could be a decent fallback option if you have Thielen set to play in a flex spot.

 

TE Foster Moreau, OAK (Wk. 13: @KC): With the injury to Hunter Renfrow, look for the Raiders’ plans moving forward to include more 2-tight end sets. The Chiefs allow the 5^th-most TE points per game and Moreau costs the minimum on DraftKings. While Darren Waller is the most likely Raider to take advantage of the matchup, Moreau has had a knack for getting in the end zone. He’s scored every other game for the past 8 weeks, and while that’s hardly predictive this would be the week he’d be due for a score if the pattern holds.

 

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 13: vs. Buf.): The Cowboys have started to get Pollard at least slightly more involved of late, but he still has averaged just 3 touches per game in the Cowboys’ 5 losses. Luckily for him the ‘Boys are favored by a touchdown on Thursday. I wouldn’t roll Pollard out there in season long leagues. There is a very real chance that the Cowboys streak of losing to every winning team they play continues, but if you think the Vegas line is about right Pollard has a chance to be a dangerous cheap option for Thanksgiving day DFS tournaments. The Bills rank 26^th in run defense DVOA.

 

That’s all I’ve got for the Thanksgiving slate. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. Keep in mind there are 3 games on Thursday with the first starting at 11:30 AM CT, so make sure your lineups are set in time. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). Have a safe and happy holiday, and as always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

 

 

 

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s semifinal week, so hopefully your fantasy squad is still alive and kicking, and hopefully you didn’t get hit too hard by injuries last week. There were a number of players who saw their season cut short last weekend. Alshon Jeffery, Rashaad Penny, Mike Evans, Derrius Guice and Calvin Ridley were just some of the casualties that could have you looking for replacements this week. There are a few rookies who might be able to help you out with that this week. Let’s take a look at which rookies are in line for big things this week. Keep in mind that all players under the same header at the same position are listed in the order I’d play them this week…

 

Rookies to Start:

 

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 15: vs. Jax.): Jacobs missed last week with a cracked bone in his shoulder, but he had been playing through it pretty well for weeks before sitting in week 14, and all indications are that he will play this week. The Jaguars have gone in the tank in the last few weeks and have been one of the worst run defenses in the league. They rank 31^st in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and allow the 4^th-most RB PPR points per game. They’ve allowed five 100-yard rushers in their last 5 games and 10 running back scores in those games. Jacobs is a strong RB2 play this week if all systems are go with his shoulder.

 

Borderline Rookies:

 

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 15: vs. Cle.): Arizona’s offense has looked a bit different in recent weeks compared to the early part of the season. They’ve moved away from the 4-wide receiver base sets they were using early in the year and started using the tight end position and 2-back sets more often. It’s hurt Murray’s passing yardage output but helped him find the end zone more frequently. In the first 8 games of the year, Murray totaled just 7 TD passes and averaged just under 250 yards per game. In the last 5, he’s found the end zone 9 times but averaged 215 yards per game. I’d look for him to be around 200 yards in this one, but if you play him, you’re hoping for multiple touchdowns and some rushing production for him to return value. For their part, the Browns have allowed the 8^th-most QB rushing yards per game and did let Ryan Fitzpatrick go for 45 and a score on the ground a couple weeks ago. Murray is best treated as a top-flight QB2 option with upside for more this week.

 

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 15: @GB): Monty has proven to be difficult to trust on a weekly basis, but the matchup here is a good one. Green Bay has been shredded on the ground for much of the season. They rank 26^th in run defense DVOA and allow the 6^th-most RB points per game. The Bears’ offense has been playing better lately and Montgomery has had at least 15 touches in 7 straight games. I’d expect him to be in the 15-20 touch range in this one, and that puts him on the RB2 radar against such a burnable defense. Montgomery did get a questionable tag this week, so make sure he plays before you start him, but the upside is there.

 

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 15: @Pit.): Singletary faces a tough matchup this week, but his usage keeps him in the flex conversation. The Steelers rank 4^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 5^th-fewest RB points per game, but the biggest reason they’ve been so good against the position is their ability to keep backs out of the end zone. They haven’t allowed a running back rushing score since week 5 and have given up just 6 RB scores all year. Singletary is going to be heavily involved and should be a nice play in PPR leagues. The Steelers are favored in this one, and Singletary has had at least 6 targets in the passing game in all 3 of the Bills’ losses this year. I’d expect nice passing game usage again.

 

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 15: @Was.): Sanders had a forgettable performance on Monday night, showing a lack of vision that eventually had him ceding work to Boston Scott. Scott impressed enough in his opportunities that I’d expect him to steal more work from Sanders going forward. Washington is not a challenging match-up for running backs, allowing the 10^th-most PPR points per game and ranking 24^th in run defense DVOA, so even if Sanders doesn’t get a full workload he may still return usable value. There’s risk here, but Sanders is still worth consideration for a flex spot.

 

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 15: vs. Hou.): Brown’s match-up looked like a smash spot on paper, and he made good on it in a big way. He gets another plus matchup this week, but not quite as juicy as the one with Oakland. The Texans rank 27^th in pass defense DVOA but aren’t as giving to wide receivers as that number would imply. They allow the 15^th-most WR points per game. Brown’s production has come from big plays, and the Texans allow the 9^th-most passes of 20+ and 40+ yards. The last 2 games are the first times all year that Brown has out-snapped Corey Davis. He’s unquestionably the WR1 in Nashville now, and his connection with Tannehill has been solid. There is still a bit of a low floor with Brown, but we’ve also seen the ceiling and he’s got 80+ yards in 3 of the last 5 games. Brown is a volatile WR3 this week.

 

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 15: vs. Atl.): Samuel has been on fire over the last month. He’s scored at least 13 PPR points in 5 straight games after reaching that mark just twice in his first 7 games of the season. This week the 49ers face off with Atlanta, who allows the 12^th-most WR points per game and ranks 26^th in pass defense DVOA. They also just lost both of their starting corners to injury last week. This looks like a smash spot for Deebo (and Emmanuel Sanders), but the concern is that it gets out of hand early and the Niners lean on the run. San Francisco is favored by 11 points, and Deebo has fewer than 5 targets in 2 of the last 3 games. I do like his chances at a strong game this week but be aware that there is some risk.

 

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 15: @Car.): Metcalf has become the most consistent part of the Seahawks’ passing attack in recent weeks. He has at least 6 catches and 70 yards in 4 of his last 5 games even as the overall passing volume for the team has been down. Seattle hasn’t thrown for 250 yards in a game since November 3^rd. Carolina is the worst run defense in the league, so there should be a lot of Chris Carson and limited pass volume again. Metcalf is still in play as a WR3 this week. Despite their struggles against running backs, the Panthers have also managed to allow the 7^th-most WR points per game. The limited volume puts a little damper on Metcalf’s ceiling, but he’s shown a solid floor that makes him a decent option this week.

 

WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Mia.): Slayton showed out on Monday night, proving that his production wasn’t just tied to Daniel Jones. This week he gets to face the Dolphins, who allow 4^th-most WR points per game and rank dead last in pass defense DVOA, so there is plenty of upside. The potential return of Evan Engram could pull some targets away from him, but Slayton is in the WR3 discussion regardless of who suits up for the Giants. I would move him to the ‘Rookies to Start’ section if Engram sits again.

 

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. NYJ): Brown has been a volatile weekly fantasy option this year. He’s topped 20 PPR points twice and topped 15 four times. He’s also finished below 7 points 5 times. The Jets are a solid run defense, and not so solid against the pass. They’ve allowed the 10^th-most WR points per game and rank 22^nd in pass defense DVOA. I’d expect the Ravens to try and get Brown going this week after catching 3 passes for negative 2 yards last week, but they might not be throwing much in the second half. He’ll have to do his damage early. Brown is a boom-or-bust WR3 option this week.

 

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 15: @KC): Fant is questionable for this week after suffering an injury last weekend, but if he plays, he’s got a nice opportunity at a strong game. The Chiefs allow the 5^th-most PPR points per game to opposing tight ends. Denver is likely to be playing from behind and throwing and Fant has scored 10+ PPR points in 3 of the last 5 games (20+ in 2 of them). I wouldn’t be considering him over an elite option at the position, but he’s not too far behind that group this week if it sounds like he’s close to 100%.

 

Rookies to Sit:

 

QB David Blough, DET (Wk. 15: vs. TB): I’d be tempted to consider Blough as a deep sleeper this week if he hadn’t lost Marvin Jones for the year last Sunday. Tampa is the best run defense in the league in terms of DVOA, but they are just 19^th in pass defense DVOA and allow the 5^th-most QB points per game. We’ve seen that Blough has a willingness to push the ball down the field, and the Bucs have been burnable. He’s still got Kenny Golladay, but the limited weapons and limited track record make Blough impossible to trust with your season on the line.

 

QB Drew Lock, DEN (Wk. 15: @KC): Lock has been a big surprise in his first two starts, but I think the hot streak ends this week. Kansas City has been playing at a high level lately. They rank 6^th in pass defense DVOA, and in the last 3 games they’ve allowed just 3 passing scores and have 7 interceptions. Lock has fared well through two games, but they were against below average pass defenses. The Chiefs are not that despite allowing the 12th-most QB points per game for the year. Lock may be able to produce in garbage time if Kansas City gets out in front, but I wouldn’t be inclined to start him outside of deeper 2-QB leagues.

 

QB Devlin Hodges, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. Buf.): Hodges should finally have a full complement of weapons to work with as JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner are both expected back, but Buffalo is one of the toughest QB defenses in the league. The Bills allow the 3^rd-fewest QB points per game and rank 5^th in pass defense DVOA. Hodges failed to capitalize on a great match-up last week, finishing as just the QB23 due to limited passing volume. I wouldn’t want to roll him out there expecting more this week in a bad match-up.

 

QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 15: vs. Phi.): Do you really want to risk your season on a player who has thrown for less than 200 yards in 4 of 5 starts and thrown just 3 touchdowns all year? I didn’t think so.

 

RB Darwin Thompson, KC (Wk. 15: vs. Den.): Thompson finally saw some real playing time last week, but still played fewer snaps than both LeSean McCoy and a fresh off the street Spencer Ware and he didn’t touch the ball until the Chiefs were up two scores. It’s entirely possible the Chiefs get out in front again this week. They’re 9 and a half point favorites, but they also are likely to have Damien Williams back. The best-case scenario for Thompson is that he gets some late run with the Chiefs out in front, but Denver allows the 12^th-fewest PPR points per game to opposing backs. You could talk yourself into trying him as a cheap DFS tournament option, but not much more.

 

RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 15: vs. TB): Don’t be tempted to try Johnson with Bo Scarbrough likely to miss this week. The upside just isn’t there. He’s still going to be splitting work with JD McKissic, and the Bucs allow the 3^rd-fewest RB points per game in the league and rank 1^st in run defense DVOA. Look elsewhere.

 

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 15: @LAC): Dalvin Cook clearly looked healthy enough last week against Detroit, which means Mattison will continue playing second fiddle. He’s been his most productive in blowout wins, and the Chargers just don’t get blown out. They haven’t lost by more than 7 points all year. LA does struggle to stop the run. They rank 23^rd in run defense DVOA and allow 13^th-most RB points per game. Mattison will get some touches, but this probably isn’t the best week to run him out there. He’s averaged 49.5 rushing yards per game in the 7 games Minnesota won by 2+ scores, and 16.4 in the 7 games they didn’t.

 

RB Benny Snell, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. Buf.): Snell’s run as the Steelers’ lead back is likely to come to an end this week. James Conner is likely to return Sunday night, and we’ve seen Snell’s efficiency and fantasy production drop over the last 3 games anyway. The Bills are more vulnerable on the ground than through the air (they rank 17^th in run defense DVOA), but I expect Snell to be playing just a change of pace role to Conner at most. If Conner is somehow out again, Snell becomes more of a dicey flex play.

 

RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. NYJ): Although there is a great chance that the Ravens win in a waltz Thursday night, we’ve seen that happen several times this year and it hasn’t turned into garbage time production for Hill. Baltimore is favored by 16.5 points in this game, but that likely means a lot of Gus Edwards in the second half. Even if Hill gets extra opportunity late, the Jets rank 2^nd in run defense DVOA.

 

WRs Terry McLaurin & Kelvin Harmon, WAS (Wk. 15: vs. Phi.): Washington’s passing attack just isn’t consistent enough to trust any of the pass catchers in it in the most important weeks of the season. Philly does allow the 5^th-most points per game to opposing wide receivers, so I understand if you have to start McLaurin in a deeper league. He’s the only receiver that has shown enough to even consider. The Eagles have been burned by Darius Slayton and DeVante Parker in the last two weeks, but each guy may have caught for more yards than Haskins is likely to throw for this week.

 

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. Buf.): Johnson posted a nice game last weekend, but the return of JuJu Smith-Schuster will be a problem for him moving forward. Devlin Hodges is averaging just 20 pass attempts and 1 TD in his starts, and with JuJu taking a handful of those targets, it’s hard to imagine more than just a few for Diontae. You’re banking on a touchdown if you play him, and Buffalo is one of the stingiest pass defenses in the league. I’m staying away from Johnson this week.

 

WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 15: vs. Den.): The big plays are enticing, but Hardman has just 8 offensive touches in the last 6 games. He’s been productive with those touches, but they aren’t enough to count on with your season on the line.

 

WRs N’Keal Harry & Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 15: @Cin.): Harry missed out on a touchdown last week on a blown call by the officials, but it was his only target of the game. Meyers continued to play a decent amount of the offensive snaps but has seen his targets drop each of the last two weeks as Sanu and Dorsett get healthier. The duo combined for 2 catches and 47 yards last week. There just isn’t enough here to trust in the semifinals.

 

WR Olamide Zaccheaus, ATL (Wk. 15: @SF): Zaccheaus came out of nowhere to score a 93-yard touchdown last week, but it was his only target of the game. He should see additional work moving forward with Calvin Ridley done for the year, but this week draws one of the best pass defenses in the league. San Francisco ranks 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and allows the 4^th-fewest PPR points per game to receivers.

 

WR Riley Ridley, CHI (Wk. 15: @GB): Ridley was the receiver thrust into action with Javon Wims going down with injury last Thursday, but there isn’t a lot of leftover receiving work to go around after Allen Robinson, and Anthony Miller and Tarik Cohen will both be ahead of Ridley in the pecking order. Monitor Ridley to see how he performs with extended opportunity, but don’t use him in fantasy lineups.

 

WR Olabisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 15: @LAC): Adam Thielen is on track to return this week, and Bisi wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire in his absence. The Chargers aren’t a great matchup, allowing the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game. I wouldn’t consider Johnson anywhere this week.

 

TE Kaden Smith, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Mia.): It looks like Evan Engram has a good chance to return this week, and even if he doesn’t there are higher upside options out there than Smith. I’d stay away from him this week. As bad as the Dolphins have been, they are at least a middling defense against tight ends.

 

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 15: @Pit.): The Steelers have allowed just one tight end to reach 30 receiving yards since their week 7 bye, and Knox has just 8 catches in the last 4 weeks. Knox is nothing more than a TD dart throw this week.

 

TE Irv Smith Jr, MIN (Wk. 15: @LAC): The Chargers allow the 9^th-fewest TE points per game, and the return of Adam Thielen this week should leave less passing volume to go around to the other weapons. Smith hasn’t had many fantasy relevant weeks this season, and I wouldn’t count on this to be one either.

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

 

QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 15: @Oak.): Minshew hasn’t looked quite the same since being re-inserted into the lineup in place of Nick Foles, but the Raiders are a perfect spot for him to get right. Oakland has allowed the 2^nd-most QB points per game and rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA. The Jaguars are likely to lean on Leonard Fournette, so there may not be a ton of volume for Gardner, but against this defense he should make the most of the passes he does throw, and he’s always a candidate to add a few points with his legs. I like his chances of finishing as at least a mid-QB2, but he is just the 27^th-highest priced QB on DraftKings at $5,500.

 

RB Patrick Laird, MIA (Wk. 15: @NYG): Laird was the full time running back last week in the Dolphins’ first game since Kalen Ballage was hurt, playing 82% of the offensive snaps. While 15 carries for 48 yards doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence, it’s more impressive than it looks on the surface. Ballage couldn’t manage to run for 2 yards per carry behind this offensive line. Laird averaged 3.2 per carry against the defense that ranks 2^nd in run defense DVOA. The Giants aren’t a pushover, but they aren’t as stingy against runners as the Jets. Laird has also seen 5 targets in each of the last 2 games, making him an interesting option in PPR leagues. I know it’s not exciting to start any Dolphins’ offensive players, but Laird is at least intriguing as a flex option in deeper leagues.

 

WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 15: @Was.): The Eagles have to throw the ball to someone, and only JJ and Greg Ward are healthy at this point. The Eagles will undoubtedly use two tight end sets as their base offense, but JJAW will be on the field almost every snap. Washington ranks 18^th in pass defense DVOA and Arcega-Whiteside is a big bodied receiver who excels in the red zone. He’s as good a bet as any Eagle pass catcher to find the end zone this week.

 

WR Scotty Miller, TB (Wk. 15: @Det.): Miller is practicing this week and looks likely to return. I’ve seen a lot of fantasy pundits talking up Justin Watson this week with Mike Evans done for the year, but Miller and Breshad Perriman were both playing ahead of him before Miller got hurt. The Lions allow the 9^th-most WR points per game and the Bucs are a pass-happy offense. Miller is an upside option in DFS tournaments this week. He costs the minimum in DraftKings. Obviously, he shouldn’t be considered if Jameis Winston ends up sitting, so keep an eye on his status if considering Miller.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.