Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

This week at drinkfive we take a look at expectations versus reality. Specifically, we will take a look at the top 10 ADP players for each position and where they sit after 12 weeks of the NFL season. We’ll also check out the guys who made it into the top 10 and weren’t drafted there. We like to check in with this every year so that you can get an idea of which way positions are trending over a larger time scale. We also like to know how volatile a position is, which can certainly influence whether or not you decide to spend a high draft pick on someone.

Quarterbacks

Starting at the top of the QB chart, we see right away that Cam Newton is only the 15^th best QB this season. He’s not so bad that you have benched him, which may be worse, considering there’s guys who sit in the top 10 that are generally free agents. Here’s our list of the guys in question:

The QB position, as a whole, is not nearly as consistent as you would assume. Only 4 of the top 10 ADP players are actually in the top 10. They don’t fall off, however, like other positions. We do see that the lowest current rank is 22, Carson Palmer, who had an ADP of 7 – not someone you were betting the house on. Cam Newton or Russell Wilson are the losers of the draft at the QB position this season, and they’re still playing and have just been mild disappointments.

As usual, going with some of the more tried and true names like Rodgers, Brees and Brady has worked out. Tom Brady may have the 22^nd most points overall, but since he missed 4 games, he is averaging the 3^rd most points on average for QB’s, which is perfectly acceptable.

The best value at the position is found in the group of players that were drafted from 12-21. In this group, 6 of them are in the top 10. Overall ADP starts at 100 for Carr, through 152 for Prescott. This means that late in the draft you had plenty of chances to grab a guy, or even take a flier, on someone who would wind up in the top 10. Even with Brady’s average numbers taken into account, it’s still almost never worth drafting a QB early – something we spout all the time. The numbers agree!

Running Backs

The RB position is going to be more risky, just by the nature of the position. Players are more likely to be injured when compared to almost any position, and they’re also more likely to be replaced for ineffective play. Running backs also have a short period of time where they are at their peak (Frank Gore not included), so carrying a performance over year to year can be sketchy. Here’s the way the RBs shake out:

As you can see, unlike the QB position, we have guys who are just gone for the season. This can be both good and bad – good because you replace them and move on with another player (possibly a handcuff), but bad because it’s a wasted early round pick. It is reassuring to see that of the players that did stay healthy, you’re only really burned by taking Todd Gurley. This year, RBs at the top have been very consistent – 5 of the 7 top drafted RBs that are still playing are in the top 10, with Lamar Miller just outside at 13.

It’s a little more difficult to nail down a sweet spot to be drafting RBs. Having a top guy is probably more important than it has been in past years, if only because they’re doing so well this season. With only a 40% failure rate (face it, Todd Gurley is a failure as a #1 pick), taking a risk on a top 10 RB was worth it this season. Only picking up guys in later rounds would not be advisable, since only 2 RBs outside of the top 20 ADP are now top 10 players.

Wide Receivers

Wide Receivers are the players that Dave and I are always going on and on about in preseason podcasts. We frequently recommend taking several at the top of the draft, if only because they tend to be less prone to injury than the other fantasy positions, and because they generally have a better chance to be consistent. Let’s see how we did this year:

While perhaps not the absolute model of consistency, 6 of the 10 WRs that were drafted in the top 10 are still in the top 10 of points. Dez Bryant was injured for many games and is currently 12^th in points per game. Really, Deandre Hopkins is the only player drafted in the top 10 that didn’t deserve to start on your team this season. This is why we stress drafting WR’s early.

If you had drafted 2 or 3 WRs to start your draft, you likely wound up with at least two guys in the top 10, and chances are they are still in the top 10. Again, we see that no players have been lost to season ending injury, though A.J. Green may be. Rounding out our top 10 point scorers are two guys that basically came out of nowhere – Adams and Pryor were so low that they went undrafted in most leagues. Michael Thomas was a semi-popular rookie flier, but he still wasn’t picked until the end of most drafts.

With these results, we will be confidently recommending drafting a bunch of WR’s high again next year. Obviously, they won’t all hit, but the chances of you having your high draft picks making a difference on your team late in the year is far higher if you load up on early round wide receivers.

Tight Ends

This is perhaps the position with the most volatility and is the hardest to predict, solely because there are only about 5 reliable tight ends in the league at any given time. There’s only a couple of guys who you wouldn’t consider replacing for a streaming option every week – Gronk, Walker, Olson, Reed, Graham and Kelce. Let’s see where they fall in our chart:

What we see is that about half of the players drafted in the top 10 actually landed there. The other half, aside from Coby Fleener, are barely worth rostering on a weekly basis (streaming options only). This is middle of the road when compared to other positions, not too great, but not bad either. All of the top 6 players drafted are in the top 11 of scoring. Gronk’s spot looks worse than it is – he got all of his points in only 5 games, so hopefully you had someone else in the other times.

Similar to other positions, TEs are not as injury prone as a RB, so taking the top of the draft class isn’t a huge risk. Overall, this has been a down year for TEs, with the high scorer topping out at only 102. We’re unlikely to have anyone reach the 180+ territory to end the season. I would wager that the average total score for the top 10 finishers this season will be far below the results of the past two years.

What can we learn from this? Well, again, the sweet spot for drafting TEs seems to only lie at the very top of their list. If you are not getting good value on someone during the draft, you will likely need to take a later round flier (again, those are all over) and pay attention to streaming options on a weekly basis.

For more in-depth analysis and discussion of these injury scenarios, tune in to the Fantasy Finish Line Podcast, Week 8 Preview: The Deadline Looms...

QUARTERBACKS

Patrick Mahomes (knee) – Although originally the news of Mahomes’ injury and subsequent chatter from the team carried with it a more conservative amount of time off the field (3-6 weeks), the latest reports have been much more optimistic. A limited practice today has some people crying for a miracle (which is only being compounded by Andy Reid refusing to rule him out for Sunday against the Packers), but let’s be honest with ourselves… Mahomes won’t play this week, but will likely suit up for Week 9 or 10, well before their bye in Week 12. In the meantime, Matt Moore (4% owned) will fill in under center. Matt Moore seems like a nice guy, but he is a veteran backup that has always been below the Andy Dalton line when filling in as a starter. Don’t expect him to perform anywhere near the level of a QB1 over the next couple of weeks. The rest of the offense needs to be downgraded as well, except perhaps for Travis Kelce. He’s cool.

Sam Darnold (toenail) – After facing too many ‘ghosts’ in the blowout loss against New England, Darnold had a toenail removed but should be on track to play against the Jaguars this week. Hopefully his confidence has not been completely broken by Belichick’s Patriot Death Squad, because Darnold has been shaping up to be a great young QB in an up-and-coming offense. We’ll see!

Matt Ryan (ankle) – Ryan has thrown for over 300 yards in every game this year except for last week’s performance when he sprained his ankle and was taken out.  Dan Quinn is not being very specific about the timetable for this injury, but Ryan is tentatively expected to start practicing soon and be available for Week 8. This is a situation worth monitoring, as its possible with 5 straight losses that they may let him sit for longer as not to risk a longer-term injury by playing when he’s not at 100%.

Cam Newton (foot) – Still out, the undefeated Kyle Allen (8% owned) will keep the reins to the Carolina Panthers’ offense (read: Christian McCaffrey) for a little while longer. The 49ers defense has been playing lights out this year, and if Allen can pull off another win, we may not see Newton back for even longer, if this season at all. That said, a loss could put Newton right back in the driver’s seat if he can prove to be healthy once more after a week’s worth of practices.

Mason Rudolph (concussion) – Rudolph will start against everyone’s favorite team to start players against in fantasy this year... the Dolphins! He cleared the concussion protocol last week and should be doing a lot of handing the ball off to James Conner and trying to get JuJu going in the offense. If there is any game to start Rudolph in this year, it’s this one.

RUNNING BACKS

David Johnson (back/ankle) – Fantasy owners of David Johnson around the world could be heard swearing in front of their TVs in Week 7, after Johnson started the game but immediately afterwards ceded his snaps to backup Chase Edmonds (75% owned). Edmonds then played the game of his life, putting up 126 yards on the ground for 3 TDs and adding 24 yards through the air on top of that. The biggest waiver wire pickup of the week (along with Ty Johnson and Kenny Stills), it remains to be seen whether David Johnson will practice this week, but I feel confident not playing him in this kind of fluid situation after last week’s debacle and the Cardinals signing Alfred Morris and Zach Zenner to back up Edmonds.

Kerryon Johnson (knee) – Johnson has just 5 carries for 23 yards before exiting the game against the Vikings last week – but hey, that’s better than David Johnson, right? What’s that? You started both? Ouuuuuch. There were certainly some bad starting scenarios out there this week with some major players getting injured early. It looked like Johnson may be out for a few weeks, but he ended up requiring surgery on his right knee that put him on injured reserve. The earliest return possible would be Week 16 against the Broncos, so he should be dropped in all redraft leagues at this point. Ty Johnson (65% owned) will slot in immediately as the starter, but it may end up being more of a committee with J.D. McKissic (21% owned) also involved. Remember as well, that Jay Ajayi, CJ Anderson, Spencer Ware, and Kenyan Drake are all still viable options to be signed (or traded, in Drake’s case) to the team. I think Drake is the most likely, as he’s clearly healthy, talented, and available – and also just the type of running back that the Lions seem to like.

Ito Smith (concussion) – Already ruled out for Week 8, Brian Hill (0% owned) will back up Devonta Freeman against Seattle. I expect Freeman to handle the majority of snaps in what could be a decent game for him. Perhaps his first rushing TD? No, I don’t own him anywhere – I swear!

Adrian Peterson (ankle) – Getting over a high-ankle sprain, and with Chris Thompson (turf toe) also sidelined, we may see Wendell Smallwood (1% owned) suck up some snaps like a Dyson. I would not put any faith in Peterson’s ability to get the job done. That said, I also don’t have any faith in the Washington Redskins, so this is probably all a situation to be avoided if possible.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Will Fuller (hamstring) – Out with a hamstring.. soft tissue injuries often plague the fast, downfield wide receivers in the NFL and Fuller is certainly no stranger to injuries that can keep you off the field for weeks at a time. The word on the street is that this is a “significant” hamstring pull, which is a big reason why Kenny Stills (47% owned) was a top waiver pick this week. Stills can play a similar role to Fuller and has already shown chemistry with Watson. Look for both Stills and Keke Coutee (18% owned) to have larger roles going forward in this offense with Fuller sidelined for a few weeks.

Adam Thielen (hamstring) – It’s that time of year… couldn’t have happened at a worse time for Thielen either, as Cousins has been reading too many internet forums about his poor performance and inability to pass the ball downfield so he has gone the opposite direction over the past few weeks. This injury doesn’t seem as long-term or serious as Will Fuller’s, but in the meantime 7^th round rookie WR Olabisi Johnson (4% owned) has been catching on as the WR3 in Minnesota and will have more opportunities this week with Thielen out. A sneaky play, starting Johnson will carry a lot of risk.

Christian Kirk (ankle) – Kirk has been limited in practice for the past two weeks and will likely be a game-time decision against the Saints in Week 8. Yeah, just what every fantasy team manager wants to hear, right? I think he’ll play but any setbacks will have him sitting out once more which puts a big strain on the Cardinals’ passing offense.

A.J. Green (ankle) – The latest is that Green will return after the bye week, although quite a few industry insiders have him pegged for a trade before the deadline next week. The Bengals certainly don’t want to do anything to interfere with their draft position next year.

Davante Adams (toe) – Another game-time decision is in the works here for Adams, and since he plays on Sunday night it’s probably not something that you want any part of unless you have another option also going in that game or on Monday. At this point a return for Week 9 is most likely for Adams.

Sammy Watkins (hamstring) – Chairman of the mid-season pulled hamstring club is Sammy Watkins, but he has been practicing and should start this week against the Packers. He’s always an option to blow up, but Watkins is not a recommended play this week.

Tyrell Williams (foot) – Back at practice, Williams has been missing since Week 4 but there has not been a game he played in where he didn’t score a TD. Against Houston this week, look for Williams to rise in the WR rankings a bit before kickoff on Sunday.

TIGHT ENDS

Delanie Walker (ankle) – Basically playing injured last week, Walker had to exit the game after halftime and wasn’t even targeted in the passing game. Jonnu Smith (4% owned) is going to be the starting tight end there for the foreseeable future and there is a clear case here to consider dropping Walker entirely, when considering his age and injury history.

Jared Cook (ankle) – Cook and Bridgewater have finally started to show some chemistry over the past few weeks, and the Saints go up against the leaky Cardinals’ defense in Week 8… unfortunately, Cook was sidelined last week with an ankle injury and has not yet practiced this week. Look for him to practice on Friday because he would be a great option at TE if available.