Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

On this episode of the Fantasy Finish Line podcast - your hosts Jason Evans and David Biggs will get into the weeds on 2nd year WRs - who is predicted to perform at a high level, who may be good value picks for the later rounds of your draft as bench depth, and who you should stay away from. We'll also touch on some fantasy red flags. When do you want to avoid drafting and/or starting players on a weekly basis? Stay on top of the latest news and analysis by listening to the show!

 

This video/podcast will go live at 9pm CT on Wednesday, September 1, 2021 - it will also be available on all major podcast channels and remain available on YouTube for later review and comments. Join us live and add your comments/questions to the show!

 

This video features the songs and artists listed below, available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license:
- Various original music by David Biggs

 

 

Subscribe to our podcast on iTunes to get notifications whenever we release a new episode. We also broadcast the shows live on our YouTube channel Wednesday nights at 9pm CT. Feel free to browse over and join in the discussion in the chat room and subscribe to the drinkfive channel for updates!

 

 

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 

39.1 Fantasy Points

 

Rookie Chase Claypool exploded onto the fantasy radar yesterday with a huge game, scoring 4 TDs against the Eagles and leading the Steelers to a victory. Claypool touched the ball 10 times and found the end zone on 4 of them, putting up 116 yards from scrimmage. His 39.1 fantasy points were about 50% more than Travis Fulgham’s 26.2 points, the second-highest non-QB point scorer on the week. This also means that the top two skill players that aren’t a QB were almost certainly not started in your league, and probably weren’t even owned in your league. Claypool spread his scoring around, getting one TD in each quarter of the game. On the other side of that game, while Miles Sanders had an impressive 74-yard TD run early on, he managed only 6 more yards on his other 10 carries. The Steelers are still the best against opposing RBs in the league.

 

32 Points

 

The Browns have now put up over 30 points in each of the last 4 games, all of them wins. They are 4-1 and are playing well in perhaps the toughest division in the league. This week’s win was perhaps the best of the season because it came against the Colts, who had the best defense in the league going into the game. The Browns have continued to commit to running the ball, cumulating another 33 attempts with Kareem Hunt leading the way with 20. It looks like Hunt will be filling the role occupied by Nick Chubb with D’Ernest Johnson a distant second on the team, considering he has been targeted only once in the passing game all season. Odell Beckham Jr. for the second time in his career had a pass completion, rushing attempt, and reception in the same game. He’s 4 for 6 on his career with 144 yards and 2 TDs as a passer, not too shabby!

 

21.4 Fantasy Points Per Game

 

Mike Davis is filling in for Christian McCaffrey very nicely. Davis is averaging 21.4 points per game over his last 3 games, all of which he has started because of McCaffrey being out with injury. The Panthers have also won all 3 of those games after an 0-2 start. This just highlights that some teams are better equipped to utilize players than others. Davis already has 426 yards from scrimmage on the season, his second-highest season total in his career. So far this week (the ever points-y Alvin Kamara still plays tonight), Davis is the RB1 with 25.4 points. He has at least 90 yards from scrimmage AND a touchdown in each of the three games he started and is averaging 7.5 receptions per game over the last 4 weeks. When McCaffrey returns, he will probably be just as good as we expect him to be, but it’s clear that a lot of that performance has to do with the entire team that surrounds him.

 

22.5 Fantasy Points

 

Jason Sanders single-handedly delivered enough points to defeat the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. He was responsible for 19 points in the game, while the 49ers put up only 17. He was perfect on the day, making 9 out of 9 kicks totaling 22.5 fantasy points. This was better than any two fantasy players on the 49ers. Helping Sanders along the way was a bit of the ole Fitzmagic – Ryan Fitzpatrick scored 27.6 points on the day to be the QB2 of the week so far. The 49ers are now 0-3 at home, and 2-0 in New Jersey. Jimmy Garoppolo started this game but was probably not ready to come back after going just 7/17 with 2 INTs in the first half before being benched. The 49ers have a lot to figure out and definitely do not look like the same team as last year. Fantasy value on this team seems to be random at best, non-existent at worst.

 

19 Passing TDs

 

Russell Wilson continued his stellar 2020 campaign on Sunday night with one of his more dramatic 4^th quarter comebacks. Wilson now has 23 career 4^th quarter comebacks. This one included going 94 yards and completing two 4^th down plays on this drive to DK Metcalf, the latter of which was for the game-winning touchdown. Wilson now has 19 TDs on the season, still on pace for 60 TDs on the year. The next closest QBs are Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, tied with 13 on the season so far. This year is also showing the emergence of DK Metcalf, now the WR2 on the season. He’s averaging 17.7 points per game this year, hasn’t scored less than 12.6 points all season, and is clearly now Russell Wilson’s favorite target.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! This fantasy season has become a weekly exercise in dodging landmines, whether they be of the injury or COVID variety, and now that bye weeks are here, it gets even messier. This is the 3^rd week in a row with a game in question due to COVID-19, and with the state of the running back position, we really need every game on the slate to happen. 8 of the top 16 running backs by preseason ADP will be sidelined either by injury or a bye, and one of the 8 that will be playing is Kenyan Drake (Drake is currently the RB32 in PPR scoring despite not missing a game). This is a week where you’re going to see some dicey flex options that make it into lineups, especially in deeper leagues. There are a few rookies that may be able to help. Keep in mind that all rookies listed below at the same position and same header are listed in the order that I would play them this week. Also, any references to fantasy scoring ranks are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive in and talk about what to expect in week 6…

 

Rookies to Start:

 

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 6: @Buf.): This week has been a tough one for folks with Edwards-Helaire on their rosters. It started with Darrel Williams taking 40% of the backfield snaps last Sunday against the Raiders and ended with Kansas City signing Le’Veon Bell, who will undoubtedly take a huge chunk out of CEH’s workload. Luckily for Edwards-Helaire, Bell will not be active this week, and CEH will get at least one more chance to shine. Despite ceding more snaps to Williams last week, Edwards-Helaire still had at least 18 combined opportunities (carries + targets) for the 5^th straight week and had 6+ targets for the third time in 4 games. Buffalo was one of the strongest defenses in the league in 2019, but they have struggled early in 2020. The Bills rank 22^nd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. The Chiefs have a gaudy implied total this week of 31 points, so there is a solid chance that CEH finds paydirt. If you have him, he should be in your lineup. If he does have a big game, it would be wise to test the market and attempt to trade him after the week in redraft formats if you can get someone to pay up for him.

 

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 6: vs. Cin.): We haven’t seen a true breakout game from Taylor yet, but we have seen a decent amount of consistency. He’s scored at least 13 PPR points in 4 out of 5 games this year but hasn’t reached 20 in any of them. That could change this week. This matchup should play to Taylor’s strengths. Cincinnati has done a good job of limiting receiving production by opposing backs, but Taylor doesn’t do much of his damage through the air. He’s tallied just 6 catches in the past 4 games. The Bengals have given up the 3^rd-most RB rushing yards per game so far, and The Colts are favored by 7.5 points this week. A positive game script and an injury to Jordan Wilkins means Taylor will likely see his highest snap share of the season, and may finally have a game where he’s able to get into a rhythm running the ball. He should be a very safe RB2 this week with upside for more.

 

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 6: vs. Det.): Robinson has continued to show himself to be a weekly fantasy starter in recent weeks, but his ceiling continues to be limited by the Jaguars’ overall struggles. During Jacksonville’s current 4-game losing streak, the rookie has played more than 60% of the snaps just once, with the team preferring to give Chris Thompson more run when they are trailing. Robinson has made the most of the snaps he is playing, finishing among the top-30 finishers at the position in each of the past 4 weeks, and in the top-10 twice. This week he faces off with Detroit, who ranks 31^st in run defense DVOA, so it’s a juicy matchup, but the Jaguars are again underdogs. If they can keep this game in a neutral or positive game script, Robinson has top-5 upside this week. In any case, he should be a locked-and-loaded RB2 in most lineups. In DFS formats he’ll continue to be a better option in cash games than tournaments. He’s the 10^th-highest priced RB on DraftKings this week.

 

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 6: @NYG): Gibson runs into a bit of the same problem that James Robinson does – although he’s shown himself to be a capable receiver, the team still has another receiving back that they like to use more when they play from behind, and they play from behind a lot. JD McKissic has played 12 more snaps this season than Gibson, but Gibson has scored nearly 30 more PPR points than McKissic on the season. This week projects to be a close game for Washington for once and the Giants allow the 13^th-most RB points per game. That should help Gibson see the field a bit more than usual this week, and the switch to Kyle Allen at QB appears that it will benefit the rookie as well. Allen targeted his running backs on 6 of his 14 pass attempts last Sunday. I view Gibson as a borderline option most weeks, but this week with a decent matchup and so many running backs out, you’re probably going to have a hard time finding a better option than Gibson in your flex spot.

 

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 6: vs. Cle.): Starting Claypool this week will probably feel like point chasing after his breakout 4-TD game last Sunday, but on paper, it’s the right call. With Diontae Johnson knocked out of the game early, Claypool pretty much assumed his role against Philly. Johnson had a 31.5% target share in the first two weeks of the season before injuries popped up, and Claypool was targeted on 32.3% of Big Ben’s targets in week 5. The Browns have allowed the 3^rd-most WR points per game so far this year, and Johnson is going to be sidelined again Sunday. Claypool also has a bit of history on his side this week. In the last 25 years, there have been 10 instances of a player catching 4 TD passes in one game. 7 of those players reached double-digit PPR points the following week, 6 of them scored 15+, and 5 of them got in the end zone again. Claypool’s chances at another strong game are very good, and his DraftKings price of $5,200 hasn’t caught up to what he did a week ago. He’s a solid cash game option there as well.

 

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 6: vs. Ari.): Dak Prescott going down for the year is a decidedly bad thing for the Cowboys’ passing attack, but it isn’t a death knell. During his best stretch in Cincy from 2013-2016, the Bengals offense carried 2 top-36 fantasy receivers each season, and this Dallas group of receivers probably has more talent than Dalton ever had in Cincy. The matchup in this game is a favorable one. The Cardinals rank 26^th in pass-defense DVOA, and Patrick Peterson is likely to be covering Amari Cooper for much of the game. That should open things up for Lamb and Michael Gallup. My biggest fear with this offense is that they go back to playing more of a ball-control game and try to slow things down with Dak out, but I don’t expect that to happen. Mike McCarthy prefers an up-tempo offense, and I think Dalton is a capable enough QB for them to continue to keep things moving. Lamb has seen at least 6 targets and scored double-digit PPR points in every single game this year. He’s a quality WR2/3 option this week.

 

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 6: vs. Atl.): Jefferson had a less than ideal fantasy performance in week 5 if you started him, but I’d expect him to bounce back in week 6. This game has real shootout potential with Julio Jones healthy. The Vikings rank 27^th in scoring defense and the Falcons rank 30^th, and this game has a 53-point over/under number. I wouldn’t expect Minnesota’s game plan to change much with Dalvin Cook out (Alexander Mattison isn’t much of a drop off behind him), but Atlanta has given up at least 299 passing yards each and every week and ranks 30^th in pass defense DVOA. Jefferson is bound to see a healthy share of that receiving load. Something in the range of 5 for 75 with a possible score sounds about right for the rookie this week. Don’t let last week scare you away from firing him up in your lineups.

 

Borderline Rookies:

 

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 6: @Jax.): The Lions backfield deployment has been the source of a lot of frustration for fantasy players this year. Each of Swift, Adrian Peterson, and Kerryon Johnson have had at least one-week ranking 1^st, 2^nd, and 3^rd in snap count out of that trio. There’s no clear-cut pecking order. It feels like the goal is to base the RB usage on the matchup, much like the Patriots did for years, and it’s going to continue to frustrate fantasy players all year. For what it’s worth, this feels like a Swift week. The Jaguars have allowed the 10^th-most RB catches per game despite not playing many true receiving backs. They managed to cough up 6 catches each to Jonathan Taylor and Joe Mixon. Swift has 13 catches on the year while Johnson and Peterson have combined for just 6. Swift is in play this week as a boom-or-bust RB3/flex option.

 

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 6: @Phi.): Dobbins has had flashes of brilliance in the first five weeks of the season, but the Ravens have been committed to the committee approach. Dobbins has averaged just 5 touches per game but has turned those into 40 yards per game. Ultimately if you play Dobbins you’re hoping he gets in the end zone. I list him as a borderline option this week because of how messy the running back situation is around the league, but I would lean against starting him if you can avoid it. There are some reasons for optimism for Dobbins. He’s made several big plays, and Philly has given up their fair share of them. Only Washington has given up more 40+ yard runs than the Eagles, and only the Bengals & Texans have given up more 20+ yard runs than Philly.

 

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 6: @NE): I wrote about Jeudy a week ago in this same matchup before the game ended up being pushed to week 6. The only real difference this week is that Denver gets back their starting QB Drew Lock. It would have been Brett Rypien under center had they played in week 5. The on-paper matchup for Jeudy isn’t great, but he should see enough volume to get him through to a productive day. The Broncos will be without Noah Fant, KJ Hamler, and Melvin Gordon. Josh Jackson is a tough matchup in the slot where Jeudy plays 70% of his snaps, but the Pats have given up lines of 7-67-1 to Tyler Lockett and 6-84-1 to Hunter Renfrow this season. Jeudy should make for a nice WR3 in a week where there should be plenty of targets for him. The Broncos are a 9.5-point underdog and should be throwing a lot.

 

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 6: vs. Det.): Shenault has been the most consistent part of the Jaguars’ receiving group this season, leading the team in both catches and yards through 5 games. He’s a reasonable flex option this week against a Detroit defense that has allowed the 9^th-most WR points per game, but there are some red flags to be aware of. The Jaguars have stopped short of giving him a full-time role, playing him fewer than 70% of the offensive snaps each week, and his two highest snap share weeks came in games where DJ Chark was injured. Chark is expected to play this week. Shenault also has an average target depth of just 7.9 yards for the season, doing a lot of his damage after the catch, but the Lions have allowed the 4^th-fewest yards after catch per game. Viska has a reasonable shot at a top-30 performance this week, but expecting a breakout game is probably asking for too much unless Chark ends up being sidelined.

 

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 6: @Ind.): Higgins doesn’t get a great matchup Sunday, but with a limited slate this week he’s been productive enough to warrant consideration for a flex spot. Higgins has seen at least 6 targets in 4 straight games and has led the Bengals in WR snaps in 2 of the last 3 weeks. Despite ranking 1^st in pass defense DVOA, the Colts have allowed 2 receivers in each of the last 2 weeks to reach 10 PPR points without including touchdowns. There is upside for a useful week from Higgins, and you could do worse than him this week if you’re searching for a flex option or WR3.

 

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 6: vs. LAR): Keep a close eye on updates for this game. It’s still a little up in the air which 49er WR will be shadowed by Jalen Ramsey. It’s either going to be Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel, but it’s hard to say for sure which one it will be. For the year, Ramsey is allowing just 4.7 yards per target on balls thrown in his direction. The Rams have allowed the fewest WR points per game, but have given up lines of 4-81 to Gabriel Davis, 6-100 to Cole Beasley, and 6-64 to DeSean Jackson. If Aiyuk avoids Ramsey, he could produce a useful week, but if we don’t know who Ramsey will match up with, I’d probably steer clear.

 

Rookies to Sit:

 

QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 6: @Ind.): Burrow is coming off of his worst game of the season against a stingy Ravens defense, and this week he faces off with an Indianapolis defense that has allowed the fewest QB points per game so far. They’ve been especially tough over the past 4 weeks, giving up about 10.5 points per game to opposing signal callers. They’ve allowed an average of just 194 yards per game and logged 9 interceptions and coughed up just 4 touchdowns in that span. The Bengals are 7.5-point underdogs in this game, so volume shouldn’t be a problem for Burrow. It would be tough for Joe to put up fewer points than he did a week ago, but this is unlikely to be a ceiling week like we saw for him against the Browns and Eagles. With four teams off this week, you might not have better options in a 2-QB league, but I wouldn’t start Burrow in any 1-QB formats and would view him as outside of the top-20 QB options for the week.

 

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 6: @SF): Akers returned from his rib injury last week, but he’s clearly playing behind Darrell Henderson at this point. Cam did put up 61 yards on 9 carries last Sunday, but the Rams were ahead by at least 13 points for every one of those carries, and 46 of the yards came on one 4^th quarter carry when the game was already decided. The 49ers are a much tougher run defense than Washington, allowing the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game and ranking 6^th in run defense DVOA. The Rams are the kind of team that may change up their RB usage suddenly, but I’d steer clear of Akers this week unless you think the Rams will blow out the 49ers like the Dolphins did a week ago.

 

RB La’Mical Perine, NYJ (Wk. 6: @Mia.): The release of Le’Veon Bell should be good news for Perine, but while Bell was out with injury Perine was playing behind both Frank Gore and Kalen Ballage, both of whom Adam Gase seems to love. There has been some noise this week that Perine will get a chance to carve out a receiving role, but I’ll believe it when I see it. Perine has been targeted just twice so far this season. He may be worth a stash in really deep leagues and in dynasty formats, but there’s no way to justify playing him this week.

 

RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 6: vs. GB): Vaughn looked to have a golden opportunity going into last week with LeSean McCoy out and Leonard Fournette only available in case of emergency, but he failed to take advantage. Vaughn left the game early with a chest injury, but not before losing a fumble. Ronald Jones played great in a workhorse role, and Fournette should be much more involved this week, so Vaughn goes back to being an afterthought for now. Keep him sidelined this week.

 

RB AJ Dillon, GB (Wk. 6: @TB): There is nothing to take away from the news that Tyler Ervin is out as far as Dillon is concerned. Ervin has been playing a healthy number of snaps each week (he’s been on the field for about a third of the Packers offensive plays), but he’s a shifty speed back who is used occasionally on sweeps and outside running plays. The bruising Dillon isn’t a natural fit to fill that role. There is a chance Dillon sees a bit more short-yardage work if Aaron Jones picks up some of Ervin’s role, but more than 5 touches for the rookie would be a surprise.

 

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 6: vs. KC): Davis has been impressive over the past few weeks, topping 50 yards or finding the end zone in each of the last 4 games. He even played 100% of the offensive snaps in week 5, but I’d expect him to go back to a secondary role this week. John Brown and Cole Beasley should both be good to go this week. In the 3 games where Brown has played more than 50% of the snaps, Davis has a total of 4 catches on 4 targets. He was just fortunate enough to score TDs on 2 of them. The Chiefs are one of the toughest matchups for opposing WRs, allowing the 6^th-fewest points per game to the position. Davis is at best a TD dart throw this week.

 

WR John Hightower, PHI (Wk. 6: vs Bal.): Hightower is fast becoming the Eagles’ 2020 version of JJ Arcega-Whiteside…a rookie receiver who plays a ton of snaps each week but does absolutely nothing with them. Hightower has led the Eagles in WR snaps for three consecutive weeks but has just 6 catches for 59 yards in those games to show for it. Travis Fulgham’s emergence and Greg Ward’s consistency in the slot have pretty much rendered Hightower a decoy most snaps. The Ravens rank 7^th in pass-defense DVOA and have allowed the 7^th-fewest WR points per game for the year. Hightower really isn’t a fantasy option at this point.

 

WR Antonio Gandy-Golden, WAS (Wk. 6: @NYG): Gandy-Golden has seen his playing time increase in recent weeks, playing a season-high 43% of the offensive snaps in week 5, but that hasn’t translated into targets. He’s totaled just 1 catch for 3 yards on 3 targets all season. There isn’t any reason to view his increase in snaps as a reason to stash him.

 

WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 6: vs. GB): Johnson came out of the gates fast in week 4 against the Bears, piling up 4 catches for 61 yards by early in the 2^nd quarter, but he didn’t record another catch the rest of the game. The Bucs should get Chris Godwin and Justin Watson back this week, and Johnson should return to the bench. He’s not worth considering this week.

 

Rookies on Byes: QB Justin Herbert, LAC, RB Josh Kelley, LAC, RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA, WR Henry Ruggs, LV, WR Bryan Edwards, LV, WR Freddie Swain, SEA

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

 

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 6: vs. KC): Moss is practicing in full this week and appears to be on track to play for the first time since week 2. I’d be hesitant to go right back to him in anything but the deepest season-long leagues, but he’s a sneaky cheap DFS option. Moss was dominating red zone snaps in this backfield before getting hurt. In his absence, Devin Singletary has found the end zone just once on the ground and was stuffed at the 1-yard line on back-to-back plays against the Rams. If Moss goes right back into that red zone role, he has a decent chance to find the end zone in a game where the Bills have an implied total of 26.5 points. The way to attack the Chiefs is on the ground. Kansas City ranks 28^th in run defense DVOA and 2^nd in pass defense DVOA. In their one loss to the Raiders, the Chiefs were dominated in the trenches. Buffalo should try to follow that blueprint. Moss could give you 50+ yards and a score for the minimum price in DraftKings.

 

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 6: @Car.): Mooney continues to operate as the Bears’ number 2 wide receiver. The switch to Nick Foles at QB hasn’t always been pretty, but it has still been an upgrade on Mitch Trubisky – especially for Allen Robinson, who has been targeted at least 10 times in each of the last 3 games. Robinson has a 28.8% target share from Foles. That hasn’t stopped Mooney from seeing 14 targets himself in Foles’ two starts. In the last two weeks, the Bears have faced the Colts and Bucs, who rank 1^st and 4^th in pass defense DVOA respectively. This week they face the Panthers who rank 14^th. I expect the Panthers to pay extra attention to A-Rob due to the heavy workload he’s been seeing, and that could open things up for Mooney. I like his chances at 60+ receiving yards in this one, and he costs the minimum on DraftKings.

 

WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 6: @Phi.): Baltimore’s #2 receiver Miles Boykin popped up on the team’s injury report on Friday with a thigh injury. He’s listed as questionable for Sunday’s game with Philly. If he misses this game, it could mean more opportunities for Duvernay. The rookie has flashed his wheels two weeks in a row with a kick return touchdown against Kansas City and a 42-yard run on a reverse last week against the Bengals. Marquise Brown is likely to be lined up against Darius Slay for a lot of this game, which could result in more targets for Mark Andrews and the other receivers. If Boykin misses this game, Duvernay becomes an interesting cheap DFS play for a limited slate and has some extra appeal in leagues that give bonus points for return yards.

 

WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 6: @Mia.): Mims was designated to return from injured reserve this week, and those of you in deeper leagues should look into beating the crowd to scoop him off the waiver wire. The Jets have been abysmal this year, but in 5 weeks they’ve gotten 6 top-30 WR performances this season – 3 from Jamison Crowder, 2 from Braxton Berrios, and one from Jeff Smith. Most of those have come from the slot, but Mims could provide a true outside threat to balance out that passing game. There isn’t much competition to climb ahead of on the depth chart.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to check on gameday for any inactives to make sure they aren’t in your lineups. There are a number of game-time decisions this week to keep an eye on. If you want to yell at me about anything written above or have questions, feel free to hit me up on Twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re now more than halfway through the NFL season, and that means we’re heading into the home stretch of the fantasy regular season. This is the point in the season where we typically see rookies start to turn the corner…where regular playing time starts to turn into more consistent production, and where some players we haven’t seen much of start to see their role expand. In 2019, all of Deebo Samuel’s top-3 yardage games came after week 8. For AJ Brown, all of his top-4 were after week 10. Miles Sanders, Diontae Johnson, Hunter Renfrow, N’Keal Harry, and Noah Fant all saw their roles expand in the back half of 2019 as well. Who will those players be in 2020? From what we’ve seen in recent weeks Chase Claypool and Jerry Jeudy may be turning that corner right now. Zack Moss, LaMical Perine and D’Andre Swift have been seeing their workloads expand as well, and even Cam Akers got a handful of carries last week. Before we get ahead of ourselves and start thinking about what the rest of the season holds for the rookies, let’s talk about what to expect in week 10…

(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under same header at same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)

 

Rookies to Start:

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 10: @GB): It’s been an ugly year for the Jacksonville Jaguars, but that hasn’t stopped Robinson from being the most productive rookie running back in the league so far. He’s the RB4 for the season, and this week gets to face a Green Bay defense that has allowed the 2^nd-most RB points per game and ranks 20^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. In 8 games, the Packers have faced off with a top-13 fantasy running back 5 times, and the lowest fantasy output any of them have posted against Green Bay was 18.8 points from Todd Gurley. There is a little concern for Robinson this week since Jacksonville is a 2-touchdown underdog and Chris Thompson siphons off a bit of the passing down work each week, but you have to bet on Robinson coming through again. He’s shown time and again that he can still produce in blowout losses, and Green Bay is about as burnable as it gets for RB matchups. Robinson should be worth his price tag in DFS formats this week.

 

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 10: @Det.): For much of this season Antonio Gibson has seen a cap put on his fantasy upside by Washington’s dedication to separating the early down work from the 3^rd down work. Gibson has just 1 touch all year on 3^rd down. JD McKissic is dominating the 3^rd down workload, so Gibson has to make his mark on early downs. Luckily, he gets to face the Detroit Lions this week, who have given up an average of 137 rushing yards on 1^st and 2^nd down per game. The Lions allow more fantasy points per game to opposing running backs than any other team in the league, and have given up 13+ fantasy points to the opposing lead back in every game since week 3. The Lions are favored to win by 4, but this should be a competitive enough game that Gibson is involved throughout. He’s a safe RB2 with upside for more.

 

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. Cin.): Claypool seems to have finally turned the corner in recent weeks, seeing strong target shares in games where Diontae Johnson was fully healthy. Claypool has been targeted 22 times in the last 2 weeks, and has turned in 15+ PPR points in each game. This week the Steelers face off with the Bengals, who rank 25^th in pass defense DVOA, and the Steelers have a healthy implied total of 27.5 points. We’ve seen the weekly upside Claypool has flashed this season. You may be kicking yourself if you leave him on your bench in this one.

 

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 10: @Pit.): On the other side of the Steelers-Bengals matchup, Tee Higgins should be in line for another solid game. The Steelers have had one of the most formidable defenses in the league, but they’ve struggled to shut down opposing wide receivers. Pittsburgh has allowed the 9^th-most WR points per game, and they’ve struggled with both perimeter and slot receivers. Higgins has been remarkably consistent despite having Tyler Boyd and AJ Green competing with him for targets. The rookie has at least 7 targets in 5 of his last 6 games, and 60+ yards in each of his last 5. This isn’t a week where he’ll have the highest ceiling, but Higgins is going to be a safe WR3 with a high floor despite facing a pretty solid pass defense.

 

Borderline Rookies:

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 10: vs. LAC): Tua quickly made people forget his inauspicious debut in his second start, finishing as the QB16 in a game against a solid QB defense in Arizona. This week he faces a Chargers defense that allows the 4th-most QB points per game. His weapons aren’t at full strength with Myles Gaskin and Preston Williams on IR, but I trust Tua to post another solid game and flirt with QB1 territory. He costs $1,000 less than Justin Herbert on DraftKings, but I’d give him a slightly better than 50/50 chance to finish with more points than his fellow rookie.

 

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 10: @Mia.): Herbert has been a locked-and-loaded QB1 most weeks since the start of October, with at least 21 fantasy points in each game, but the Dolphins have forced some QB floor games this year. They’ve allowed fewer than 13 fantasy points to the opposing QB 3 different times this season, and the guys that they’ve struggled with have been running QBs (Cam Newton, Josh Allen, and Kyler Murray). Herbert has some mobility, but it’s not a focal point of his game. The Dolphins rank 8^th in pass defense DVOA. If you have Herbert, you’re probably playing him, but be warned that this might not be one of his top performances. I’d view him as more of a contrarian play in DFS formats, and a borderline option in 1-QB leagues.

 

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 10: vs. Was.): I mentioned you should start Antonio Gibson this week, but on the opposite side of the Washington-Detroit game, D’Andre Swift should be in line for another useful fantasy day as well. The Football Team is much better at defending the pass than the run. They rank 1^st in pass defense DVOA, but just a middling 17^th in run defense DVOA and are fresh off allowing Wayne Gallman to post an RB6 finish a week ago. There is a ‘revenge game’ narrative for Adrian Peterson in this one, and the Lions have less-than-exciting implied total for a favorite at just 24.75, so Swift isn’t an auto-start here. I do like his chances of returning an RB2 performance, but wouldn’t go out of my way to play him over safer choices.

 

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 10: @NE): Dobbins came back down to earth a bit last weekend against the Colts after a breakout game the week before. His outlook this week could get a little murkier with Mark Ingram looking likely to return (he practiced on Friday). New England can be run on. They rank 31^st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 13^th-most RB points per game, and Baltimore should have game script in their favor as a touchdown favorite. If Ingram returns, this will go back to being a 3-headed monster at running back, so Dobbins would likely be in line for 10-12 carries. That kind of workload would likely make him a fringe RB2 if he’s able to find the end zone. You could do worse if you’re struggling to fill in a last RB spot.

 

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 10: @Ari.): Moss has steadily worked himself into a bigger role since returning from injury a few weeks back, and has now played more snaps and posted more fantasy points than Devin Singletary in each of the last 2 weeks. The key to his fantasy production has been and will continue to be touchdowns. He’s found the end zone 3 times in the last 2 weeks. The workload split with Singletary means Moss will be in the range of 10 touches most weeks, and more often than not that isn’t going to get him to the RB2 range without a touchdown. This week he faces an Arizona defense that is the definition of middling against running backs. They rank 16^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 17^th-most RB points per game. The Bills do have an implied total of 27.25 in what should be a bit of a shootout, so a TD may be in the offing for Moss. He’s a reasonable flex option.

 

RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 10: @Mia.): With Austin Ekeler’s return looming, Kelley’s time as a fantasy relevant back this year may be winding down. He’s had trouble holding off Justin Jackson, Troymaine Pope and Kalen Ballage for work in recent weeks, and once Ekeler returns any one of those guys could push Kelley completely to the bench. For this week, there is a chance that Pope and Ballage handle the bulk of the work, but I wouldn’t count on that happening. I expect Kelley to see in the range of 10-12 touches, and Miami ranks 29^th in run defense DVOA and allows the 11^th-most RB points per game. I’d view Kelley as a risky flex option in leagues with 12+ teams.

 

RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 10: @LAR): The Seahawks have officially ruled out Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde yet again this week, so DeeJay Dallas will face the Rams in a backfield committee with Travis Homer and Alex Collins. Last week with the same competition, Dallas played 31% of the offensive snaps and handled 45% of the running back touches. His role might have been larger if the Seahawks hadn’t played from behind all game. Seattle enters this week as a 1.5-point underdog, but one with an implied total of 27.5 points in a potential shootout. The Rams aren’t an inviting matchup, allowing the 7^th-fewest RB points per game. A running back in a limited role facing that matchup isn’t one that you should be eager to get into your lineup. He has enough upside that you could talk yourself into using him as flex option, but you’ll probably be better off looking elsewhere.

 

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 10: @LV): Jeudy posted his best game of the season in week 9, finishing as the WR8 for the week. In recent weeks, KJ Hamler has started to play more slot snaps and Jeudy has spent more time on the outside, and the results have been favorable for Jeudy. This week he faces off with the Raiders, who rank 26^th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed a perimeter receiver to go over 75 receiving yards in all but 2 games this year. After his breakout game, I expect Jeudy to have a better chance than Tim Patrick to be the Bronco that gets to 75 yards this week. Jeudy should be a reasonable WR3 this week in a game where the Broncos could be chasing points as a 5-point underdog.

 

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 10: @NO): Aiyuk will once again be San Francisco’s default #1 receiving option this week. Deebo Samuel remains sidelined with injury, and Aiyuk had a 25% target share with Samuel sidelined in week 8. Aiyuk is likely to face off with New Orleans’ top corner Marshon Lattimore, which could cap his upside a little, but Kyle Shanahan is a clever enough coach to move him around the formation and use him as a rusher as well to get him away from Lattimore a bit. The Saints do rank 9^th in pass defense DVOA, but I still like Aiyuk’s chances to post a WR3 day Sunday. He should be a safe bet for 7+ targets in a game where the 49ers are 9-point underdogs.

 

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 10: @Chi.): Jefferson has flashed overall WR1 upside some weeks, but he’s been a bit volatile from week-to-week. He’s had two games of over 150 yards this season, and 3 with fewer than 30 yards. The Bears are not an easy matchup, allowing the 3^rd-fewest points per game to the position, so there is a chance this is more of a floor week for Jefferson. His low output weeks have usually come when the Vikings play from ahead, and they are 2.5-point favorites this week. Jefferson’s upside is tough to sit, but if you have other strong options this isn’t a bad week to chance sitting him. If he tops 60 yards it will be a successful week for the rookie.

 

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 10: vs. Min.): Mooney led the Bears in targets in week 9 with 11 of them, and while I don’t expect for him to continue to see more targets than Allen Robinson, his usage has been pretty consistent since the start of October. Mooney has at least 5 targets in each of the last 7 games, and is averaging 8 per game over the last 3. The Vikings allow the 2^nd-most WR points per game, so Mooney has a solid chance at double-digit PPR points even if he doesn’t out-target A-Rob again.

 

Rookies to Sit:

QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 10: @Pit.): Burrow is probably fine as a QB2 this week given the limited slate of games and his recent production. He’s thrown for over 300 yards 5 times in his last 7 starts and only been held short of 15 fantasy points once in those games. I would shy away from considering him in 1-QB formats though. This isn’t going to be a ceiling week for the rookie. Pittsburgh hasn’t allowed 20 fantasy points to any QB they’ve faced this year, and an average of just over 12.5 QBs per week have topped 20 points. A QB1 week is likely not in the offing for Burrow against a defense that wants to show that last week’s performance against Dallas was an aberration. The Steelers rank 3^rd in pass defense DVOA and allow the 5^th-fewest QB points per game.

 

QB Jake Luton, JAX (Wk. 10: @GB): Luton acquitted himself better than I expected him to in his first NFL start, finishing as the QB15 with over 300 yards and a TD through the air, and another TD on the ground. He did that against one of the worst QB defenses in the league though in Houston. The Packers allow the 6^th-fewest QB points per game, and Jacksonville has an implied total below 20 points. The way to hang in the game with Green Bay is to run the ball, and I’d expect a lot of James Robinson in this one. Luton is only worth consideration as a low-end QB2 option.

 

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 10: vs. Sea.): Akers finally got himself into the backfield mix in the Rams’ last contest with Darrell Henderson suffering a thigh injury, and he managed to put up 54 scrimmage yards on 9 carries and 1 catch. It’s possible that the strong performance leads to more work for Akers coming out of the bye week, but Darrell Henderson will return this week and is the likeliest bet to lead the backfield in week 10. Seattle allows the 13^th-fewest RB points per game and ranks 9^th in run defense DVOA. If Henderson leads the way for this backfield as expected, Akers faces an uphill battle to post a useful fantasy day in this matchup.

 

RB JaMycal Hasty, SF (Wk. 10: @NO): The 49ers backfield without Raheem Mostert has proven to be a weekly crapshoot, and for the time being it looks like Jerick McKinnon is at the top of the depth chart. Hasty will mix in a fair amount for as long as the 49ers remain in the game, but the passing work will likely go mostly to McKinnon and the Saints are favored by 9. New Orleans also allows the 5^th-fewest RB points per game. Hasty is best left on the bench this week.

 

RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. Cin.): McFarland handled 5 touches last Sunday, the most he’s had in a game since week 3, but he totaled just 22 scrimmage yards. The Steelers were surprisingly trailing for much of the game against Dallas. I wouldn’t expect a repeat of that scenario this week. The Steelers are favored by 7.5 points against Cincy, so I’d expect them to get back to using James Conner quite a bit. McFarland shouldn’t be near your starting lineups.

 

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 10: @Ari.): Davis is coming off a 4-70-1 performance on 5 targets against the Seahawks last Sunday, but he posted those numbers on the fewest snaps he’s played since week 2, and the Seahawks have been the worst WR defense in the league by a LOT. No team comes within 10 points per game of what Seattle allows to the position. Week 9 was the first time in almost a month that Davis posted more than 1 catch and more than 11 yards.  The fact that he did so with a shrinking snap share means he shouldn’t be counted on to do it again. The Cardinals are a much tougher WR defense than the Seahawks, allowing the 15^th-most WR points per game…which is a full 17 points per game less than Seattle gives up to the position. Davis is best left on the bench this week.

 

WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 10: vs. Den.): There is going to come a week where Henry Ruggs has another blowup game, but with the type of production he’s been posting from week-to-week, I’d rather it happen from my bench than risk him putting up less than 5 points in the lineup. Ruggs has fewer than 5 points in 3 out of the 6 games he’s played, and just 5.5 in one of the others. Denver does allow the 8^th-most WR points per game, but they’re above average when it comes to not giving up big plays. Only 9 teams have allowed fewer completions of 20+ yards than the Broncos. I’d avoid Ruggs’ rookie teammate Bryan Edwards for now as well. Edwards played just 1 snap in his return a week ago.

 

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 10: vs. Hou.): The Browns have played just one full game since the injury to Odell Beckham Jr., and Peoples-Jones played just 4 snaps in that game as Khadarel Hodge moved back into 3-wide receiver sets. The Browns’ offense is going to get more crowded this week as they get Austin Hooper & Nick Chubb back on the field. This is a plus matchup for most offensive players, but I doubt DPJ sees the field much.

 

WR Austin Mack, NYG (Wk. 10: vs. Phi.): Mack made the most of an unexpected opportunity last weekend when the Giants benched Golden Tate for the week. He hauled in 4 of 5 targets for 72 yards, but Tate will be back in the lineup this Sunday. Mack will be lucky to play more than 10-15 snaps in this one behind Tate, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton.

 

WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 10: vs. Was.): Kenny Golladay is out again this week, but even with him missing this game, I wouldn’t look to Cephus as a fill-in. He’ll be on the field a reasonable amount (he played 41% of the snaps last week), but he’s essentially playing as the #3 guy in a 3-man rotation for the team’s WR2 & 3 roles with Marvin Hall & Danny Amendola. Washington allows the fewest WR points per game, so this isn’t a matchup to bet on Cephus making things happen with limited snaps.

 

WR Freddie Swain, SEA (Wk. 10: @LAR): Swain has been on the field a fair amount for Seattle, averaging about 24 snaps per game in the last 6 games, but he’s totaled just 5 catches on 9 targets in those games. Unless something happens to a wide receiver ahead of him there isn’t much reason to consider him.

 

WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 10: @Car.): As expected, the addition of Antonio Brown and the return of Chris Godwin have rendered Johnson irrelevant for fantasy purposes. He did record a catch on Sunday night, but played just 6 snaps and operated as the team’s WR5. Johnson is best left to the waiver wire unless more injuries pop up ahead of him.

 

Rookies on Byes: QB Ben DiNucci, DAL, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC, RB LaMical Perine, NYJ, WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL, WR Denzel Mims, NYJ

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Salvon Ahmed, MIA (Wk. 10: vs. LAC): Thanks to continued ineffectiveness from Jordan Howard, Ahmed looks like the best fantasy option in the Dolphins backfield until Myles Gaskin returns. Howard posted 19 yards on 10 carries last week, and now has just 33 yards on 28 carries on the year. Ahmed posted 38 yards on 7 carries in the first game he was active for all year. The Chargers are a vulnerable run defense, allowing the 12^th-most fantasy points per game to backs, and ranking 23^rd in run defense DVOA. Ahmed is a worthwhile option if you’re desperate for a running back in deep leagues, and he costs the minimum on DraftKings this week.

 

RB AJ Dillon, GB (Wk. 10: vs. Jax.): Dillon hasn’t really gotten much opportunity this season, even when Aaron Jones missed time with injury, but this week could set up for some garbage time carries for the rookie. The Packers are favored by 13.5 points, and the Jaguars are a favorable running back matchup. Jacksonville allows the 6^th-most RB points per game and rank 21^st in run defense DVOA. Dillon could push for double-digit touches in garbage time if the Packers pull away. This has a decent chance to be Dillon’s best fantasy game of the season, even if that isn’t saying all that much. His current high-water mark is 4.2 points.

 

WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 10: @NYG): We haven’t seen the Eagles fully unleash Reagor just yet, and I’m not sure we see it this week either. Alshon Jeffery will make his season debut, and that will throw some uncertainty into how the WR snaps shake out. If I had to guess, Greg Ward is the receiver who will lose the most snaps to Jeffery, but if that happens it’s unclear which of Reagor or Travis Fulgham will play in the slot. The Giants are a favorable matchup for wide receivers, allowing the 10^th-most WR points per game and ranking 28^th in pass defense DVOA, and Reagor found the end zone in the last meeting between these two teams. I’d expect Jeffery to be on a bit of a pitch count, and Fulgham to be the best fantasy option of the WR group, but Reagor will have some upside as well in the plus matchup. The best place to consider him would be in DFS though. I’d be more inclined to take a wait-and-see approach with Reagor in season-long leagues to see how the receiver rotation shakes out with Alshon back.

 

WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 10: @LV): I would probably stay away from Hamler in season-long leagues unless they’re pretty deep, but he’s an intriguing low-priced DFS tournament option this week. Hamler costs just $3,800 on DraftKings, and as mentioned under Jerry Jeudy the Broncos could be chasing points and the Raiders rank 26^th in pass defense DVOA. Hamler’s move to the slot in recent weeks means he gets to face off with Lamarcus Joyner this week, who has been the weakest of the Raiders’ corners. Hamler saw a season-high 10 targets last Sunday, and there is a good chance that Denver is throwing 40+ times again in this one.TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 10: vs. Hou.): Austin Hooper returns this week, but it was clear while Hooper was out that Bryant is the #2 tight end in this offense over David Njoku. The Browns use two tight end sets as their base offense, and the Texans have given up 8-113-1 to Anthony Firkser, 3-35 to Vance McDonald, and a touchdown to Jace Sternberger this season. Backup tight ends have had success against Houston. Overall, they allow the 10^th-most TE points per game, so Bryant is a little bit better than a TD dart throw this week.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to check the active/inactive updates on Sunday, and make sure you don’t start a sidelined player. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.