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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully your teams have held together well enough through the first 7 weeks. I’m not going to spend the intro this week lamenting all of the injuries our teams are dealing with…instead I’m going to give thanks that we’re getting a random mid-season reprieve from bye weeks. All 32 teams will be in action this week, which will give everyone a lot of lineup flexibility, but it also means a lot of our rookies are going to get pushed to the wrong side of the borderline this week, especially at running back.

I was excited to lead this week’s column talking about the huge rookie QB showdown looming in Washington, but it looks like a Jayden Daniels rib injury is going to derail those plans. There’s still a lot to be excited about – Ricky Pearsall and Jalen McMillan moving into more prominent roles in their offenses, Brian Thomas Jr. continuing to ascend to auto-start status, and some unheralded running backs who could post surprising stat lines in garbage time this week. Nearly 40 percent of this week’s matchups have point spreads of 7 or more points, and there are going to be some garbage time producers if those games go according to the script.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s dive into week 8…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 8: vs. Chi.): I list Daniels here with the huge obvious caveat that it only applies if he’s able to play. The Bears have been stingy to opposing QBs, allowing the 2^nd-fewest QB points per game this year, but some of that has been due to the QBs they’ve played. Will Levis, Anthony Richardson, and the Panthers’ QBs have all been wildly inefficient this year. Matthew Stafford has struggled against a bunch of teams without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. The other QBs the Bears have faced – CJ Stroud and Trevor Lawrence – didn’t put up huge games, but both were within 2 points of top-12 finishes for the week when facing the Bears. Daniels has been uber-efficient this year, ranking 1^st in the league in completion % and 5^th in passer rating, and he’s averaged 53 rushing yards per game. The matchup isn’t a good one, but I’d bet on him finding his way to a top-12 finish again if he’s able to get cleared to play, but that’s a big if.

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 8: @ Pit.): Nabers didn’t blow the doors off in his return from a concussion on Sunday, but he did go right back to putting up a 30%+ target share and a whopping 56% air yardage share against the Eagles. His final stat line was uninspiring (4-41 on 8 targets), but his usage and skill is elite. He’ll likely draw shadow coverage from Joey Porter Jr. this week whenever he’s on the perimeter, which sounds daunting, but the last 3 WR1s the Steelers have faced (Michael Pittman Jr., CeeDee Lamb, and Garrett Wilson) all posted at least 5-60 against Pittsburgh. Nabers’ floor might be a touch lower than that 5-60 line given what we saw last week, but you know his ceiling is significantly higher. He should be in starting lineups again.

WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX (Wk. 8: vs. GB): Thomas put on a show for the London fans in week 7, putting up 5-89-1 on 5 targets, and threw in a 2-point conversion for good measure. He’s now finished as a top-10 PPR receiver in 3 of the last 4 weeks, and as a result he’s graduated to the auto-start section of the column. The usage continues to be very good for Thomas and he continues to make plays when given the chance. He’ll face a tough individual matchup against Jaire Alexander, but I trust in Thomas to provide a solid WR2 type of performance, and Thomas lines up in the slot enough that he should be able to get away from Jaire for at least some of his routes. The Packers allow the 12^th-fewest WR points per game, but have had trouble with some vertical receivers this year like AJ Brown (5-119-1), Alec Pierce (5-56-1), and Jordan Addison (3-72-1).

TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 8: vs. KC): One of the easiest starting decisions you’ll have in any league is the choice to plug in Bowers as your starting tight end. Bowers has emerged as the Raiders’ true #1 receiver, putting up 30% or higher target shares in each of his last 3 games without Davante Adams around. Bowers finished each of those 3 weeks (and 5 of 7 weeks of the season) as a top-5 PPR TE, and this week he gets to face a KC defense that allows the most TE points per game. The Chiefs have allowed 3 tight ends to reach 90+ yards against them this year, and I think Bowers has a great chance to be the 4^th.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): Nix has some sneaky top-10 potential this week against the miserable Panthers. The Panthers rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 6^th-most QB points per game, including at least 17 points to the opposing QB in 5 of their 7 games. They also just allowed the Commanders’ QBs to rush for over 80 yards last week, so Nix’s rushing floor (he’s averaging just over 6 points per game of rushing production) should be there again this week. We’ve already seen Nix post finishes this year of QB8, QB9, and QB13, and I think he can be in that range again this week. I’d prefer to start him as my QB2, but he could be a serviceable QB1 if you don’t like your starter’s matchup.

QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 8: @ Was.): Williams has taken his play to another level in the last 3-4 games, and this week gets a plus matchup against a shaky Commanders’ secondary. Caleb over his last 3 games has a completion percentage above 70%, a passer rating of 122.8, and a 7:1 TD-INT ratio. Washington has been better in recent weeks against the pass, allowing fewer than 150 passing yards in 3 of their last 4 games, but for the season, they still rank just 25^th in pass defense DVOA, and all of the passing offenses they limited have struggled throwing the ball this year (Cardinals, Panthers, Browns). I’d treat 200 passing yards and 2 TDs as close to the floor here. Like Bo Nix above, I think Caleb is a rock-solid QB2 and fringe QB1 option this week.

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 8: @ Mia.): It’s been an up-and-down season for Marvin Harrison this year with more downs than ups lately, but Harrison’s usage has remained solid. He was in a route on 90% of the Cardinals’ dropbacks on Monday night and earned a 25% target share and 42% air yardage share, but he ended up with just 3-21 on 6 targets. Looking back at the last 3 games, including the one he left early with a concussion, Harrison has just 5 catches in his last 15 targets. If you’ve seen the clip from Monday’s game of Harrison dropping a ball that hit him in the chest, you might assume that Harrison has been the problem, but according to MB Fantasy Life’s utilization tool, just 7 of those 15 targets have been catchable. Kyler Murray’s play has been a problem for Marv. I still think that the usage is going to lead to better performances as Marv and Kyler get on the same page, and I’d lean towards starting Marv this week, but I would understand if you didn’t feel the same as he faces Jalen Ramsey and the Dolphins. With that said, Brian Thomas Jr. (4-47-1), DK Metcalf (4-104-1) and Michael Pittman Jr. (3-63) have all fared just fine against Ramsey and the Dolphins, though Miami does allow the fewest WR points per game.

WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 8: vs. NO): McConkey’s final stat line on Monday night was underwhelming (5 catches for 46 yards) but he logged his highest route participation rate of the season (95%) and still finished the week as the PPR WR32. This week he faces a New Orleans defense that allows the 14^th-most WR points per game, and has had some trouble slowing down slot receivers like CeeDee Lamb (4-90-1), Ray-Ray McCloud (6-62), and Chris Godwin (11-125-2). I wouldn’t put McConkey on the same level as Godwin or Lamb, but he’s certainly better than McCloud. McConkey also has fared very well against man coverage this season, earning a 34.2% target share and scoring 0.75 fantasy points per route run against that coverage, per PFF, and the Saints play man-to-man at the 8^th-highest rate in the NFL. It all adds up to Ladd being a solid bet to finish as a WR3 again this week.

WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 8: @ LV): Worthy saw his best usage of the season in week 7, and also saw his worst fantasy output since week 3 after he turned 8 targets into just 3-19. JuJu Smith-Schuster left the game early after aggravating his hamstring injury, and Worthy finished the day with a 32% target share and 56% air yardage share, but the deep passes didn’t connect. The Chiefs did trade for DeAndre Hopkins this week, so it’s only a matter of time before Hopkins is earning a large target share and cutting into Worthy’s workload, but I don’t expect the impact to be big in week 8. I’d expect Hopkins to play something similar to the 35% snap share Amari Cooper played in his Buffalo debut last weekend. The Chiefs will find packages and plays to get him on the field, but there’s no way he’ll have the whole playbook down in just a few days. That means Worthy should continue to play a big role this week, and the Raiders are a much softer defense than the San Francisco secondary that slowed him last Sunday. Vegas ranks 22^nd in pass defense DVOA, though they’re the only defense that has yet to allow a 40+ yard completion this season. Will Worthy notch the 1^st? He might, but even if he doesn’t, I like his chances of getting into the WR3 ranks this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): Maye has been fun to watch in the last two weeks, as his first 2 NFL starts both ended in top-10 fantasy finishes, but I think he’s in for a bit of a rude awakening this weekend. The Jets’ pass defense looked very vulnerable against Russell Wilson and the Steelers last Sunday, but they were missing starting corners DJ Reed and Michael Carter, both of whom are practicing in full as of Thursday and should make their returns. Prior to last week’s contest, the Jets were allowing just 11 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, and still have allowed just the 4^th-fewest points per game to QBs after getting shredded by Russ. I expect that Jets’ defense to bounce back in a big way, and would treat Maye as a low-end QB2 this week.

QB Spencer Rattler, NO (Wk. 8: @ LAC): If Rattler gets to make his 3^rd start this week, I’d probably stay away even in 2-QB formats. His 2^nd game didn’t go nearly as well as the first, as the Broncos limited the rookie to 172 passing yards and forced 2 fumbles before Rattler was pulled for Jake Haener late in a blowout. The Chargers don’t boast a top-5 pass defense like the Broncos do, but they’re a top-10 unit that has allowed just 1 QB to throw for 250+ yards, and just 1 QB to throw for 2 TDs against them. If Rattler is going to have success, he’s likely going to have to find it on the ground, but I doubt he does enough with his legs to find his way to a solid QB2 performance.

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 8: vs. Atl.): Irving’s final stat line last Monday was fine for fantasy lineups (12 touches, 77 scrimmage yards and a TD), but Todd Bowles promised a 3-headed backfield last week and he delivered. Rachaad White led the way in playing time, but RB3 Sean Tucker played nearly 20% of the snaps and saw 7 opportunities. White and Irving’s split seemed similar to what we saw before White’s injury absence in week 6 – an even split of rushing work with White playing much more on passing downs – but Tucker siphoned off a portion of the workload from each, and I don’t see him disappearing this week. We saw Bucky put up 56 scrimmage yards on 11 touches in the first meeting with Atlanta, and I think we’ll see a similar workload here. For the year, Atlanta has allowed just the 5^th-fewest RB points per game. With all 32 teams in action this week, I’d treat Bucky as a mid-range RB3 option this week.

RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 8: @ Pit.): Devin Singletary returned to the lineup last week for the Giants, but he didn’t put as big of a dent into Tracy’s workload as I expected. The Philadelphia Eagles’ defense, however, did put that dent into it. The Eagles jumped ahead on the scoreboard early, forcing the Giants into a pass-heavy approach, and the Eagles had Daniel Jones under fire on every dropback. New York totaled just 119 offensive yards and had 9 drives that ended in punts after 5 or fewer plays (including 5 three-and-outs). It’s impossible for any running back to get going when the offense is that inept, and this week’s matchup with Pittsburgh could be a repeat of the same. I expect the Giants will try to lean on the run game early to protect Jones from TJ Watt and the Steelers’ pass rush, but Pittsburgh won’t make it easy – they rank 3^rd in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 8^th fewest RB points per game. There’s also a chance that Singletary was being eased back in after his injury and could see his snaps increase this week. It all adds up to making Tracy a risky flex option in this one. 

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk.8: vs. Ari.): De’Von Achane returned from his concussion last weekend and Wright was limited to just a 9% snap share behind both Achane and Mostert. He made the most of his chances, rushing for 33 yards on 5 carries, and is up to 5.1 yards per carry for the season, but he isn’t going to give you much fantasy value with that workload. The Cardinals allow the 12^th-most RB points per game, but most of that damage will be done by Achane & Mostert.

RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 8: @ Sea.): With James Cook back in the lineup last weekend, Davis was limited to just a 22% snap share, the exact same share as fellow backup Ty Johnson. Davis did post a respectable week with 47 scrimmage yards and a TD, but that’s pretty much the ceiling here unless the Bills win in a romp. If you start Davis in fantasy lineups this week, you’re banking on a TD to get him to an acceptable final stat line.  

WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 8: vs. Atl.): McMillan has a great opportunity at a breakout game this week as he could be serving as the Bucs’ de facto WR1 against a Falcons’ defense that allows the 11^th-most WR points per game. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans will be on the shelf for several weeks (Godwin for the year), and McMillan was operating as the WR3 before those injuries. It’s still unclear though if he’ll be used mostly on the perimeter, as he has been so far, or if he’ll be moved into Chris Godwin’s slot role – he was primarily a slot receiver in college. Atlanta slot corner Dee Alford is the weakest link in their secondary. It all shapes up to a situation where McMillan has a good shot at being a quality start this week, but the WR pecking order in the wake of Monday night’s injuries still has a lot of uncertainty, and McMillan has totaled just 6-74-1 on 123 routes run this season. It’s a big leap of faith to plug him in as a starter given his production so far. I’d treat him as a risky WR4 with big upside this week.

WR Ricky Pearsall, SF (Wk. 8: vs. Dal.): Pearsall was on the field a ton in his NFL debut with the 49ers extremely short-handed at WR (he was in a route on 84% of the team dropbacks), but those snaps didn’t add up to big production as he ended up with 3 catches for 21 yards on 5 targets. Brandon Aiyuk is done for the year, and as of Thursday, it looks like Jauan Jennings will be out again this week, but Deebo and George Kittle should be able to play. I expect the 49ers to pummel the Cowboys on the ground – Dallas ranks 29^th in run defense DVOA and allows over 140 rushing yards per game – and for them to run the passing game through Deebo and Kittle when they do throw. I think you can probably count on something like 5-6 targets for Pearsall as the team WR2 this week, but that makes him just a WR4 option in fantasy lineups in my opinion.

WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 8: @ Sea.): Coleman’s final stat line looked great last weekend if he was in your lineup. He caught 4 of 7 targets for 125 yards, easily his best yardage game of the season and the first time he’s caught for at least 60 yards in a game. If you look closer, you’ll notice that half of his production (2 catches and 67 yards) came on the Bills’ final drive with a 3-possession lead in the final 5 minutes. Those points still count the same in fantasy football, but I wouldn’t expect the Bills to be throwing deep in games that are already decided very often going forward. The true worry I have for Coleman is that Amari Cooper played just 35% of the snaps in this game. Cooper’s role and playing time are going to grow quickly, and that’ll leave less work for Coleman, who is already averaging just 4 targets per game. He’s going to be a boom-or-bust option going forward, including this week against a Seattle team that allows 13^th-fewest WR points per game. He’s an upside WR4 if you want to roll the dice on him booming again this week.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 8: @ Was.): Through 6 games, Odunze has reached double-digit PPR points just once, and continues to struggle to stand out in this crowded passing attack. This matchup with Washington is one I would’ve circled for Odunze a few weeks ago as a great spot for a big game, but the Commanders have been better against the pass in recent weeks, allowing fewer than 150 passing yards in 3 of their last 4 games (albeit against bad passing offenses – ARI, CLE, and CAR). This is still a matchup where good receivers can excel, but the Bears’ coaches just haven’t made Odunze a priority in this offense. I’d expect him to see something like 4-5 targets, and would count it as a win if he hits 10+ PPR points for the 2^nd time this season.

WR Troy Franklin, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): Franklin isn’t quite playing a full-time role yet (he was in a route on 67% of the team dropbacks last Thursday, but he’s moved into fantasy consideration after posting back-to-back double-digit PPR performances. He tallied 5 catches for 50 yards last week and gets to face a hapless Panthers’ defense this week. My concern for Franklin is that he has been much better against man coverage than zone, and the Panthers play man coverage at the 5^th-lowest rate in the NFL. Per PFF, Franklin has been targeted on 42.1% of his routes run vs. man coverage and put up 0.76 fantasy points per route run on those plays. Those numbers are just 18.5% and 0.22 vs. zone. When you’re only playing two-thirds of the snaps, those little nuances could be the difference between a WR50 finish and a WR30 finish for the week. I’d probably look elsewhere rather than count on another 10-point day from Franklin against the zone-heavy Panthers.

WRs Xavier Legette & Jalen Coker, CAR (Wk. 8: @ Den.): Andy Dalton sprained his thumb this week in a car accident, and now it’ll be Bryce Young under center for the Panthers against a Denver defense that ranks 4^th in pass defense DVOA. My advice is to pretty much stay away from all Panthers’ skill players this week aside from Chuba Hubbard. Young has been the worst passer in the NFL this season, with a passer rating below 50, and fewer than 5 yards per pass attempt, and the Broncos are about as bad of a matchup as he could’ve drawn here. If you got more than 5 PPR points out of either of these receivers this week, it would be a win.

WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 8 : vs. NYJ) : I mentioned in the week 7 Rookie Report that Patriots HC Jerod Mayo called out Polk last week, and Polk responded Sunday by logging zero catches on 3 targets. Pop Douglas battled an illness and barely played, and Polk still was limited to a 52% route participation rate. His playing time has continued to dwindle, with that route rate dropping from 97% to 69% to 52% over the last 3 games while Kendrick Bourne (27% -> 52% -> 62%) and Kayshon Boutte (23% -> 59% -> 76% -> 88%) have seen their playing time grow in recent weeks. I’d expect Douglas to be over his illness by Sunday, and that likely means Polk will be serving as the team’s WR4. The Jets’ secondary is getting healthy this week, and I don’t expect much production from Polk on what should be very limited playing time.

WRs Bub Means & Mason Tipton, NO (Wk. 8: @ LAC): With Rashid Shaheed sidelined for the rest of the season, Means and Tipton will continue as the team’s WR2 & 3 going forward, but this isn’t a good week to insert either into fantasy lineups. Spencer Rattler will likely start at QB again this week, and Chris Olave and Taysom Hill should both return to the lineup. I expect Hill’s return means the Saints will lean on the run game and limit Rattler’s chances to turn the ball over, and Olave’s return means he’ll dominate the targets in the passing game. The Chargers play at the slowest pace in the NFL, so matchups against them already have fewer total plays than an average game. Fewer total plays means fewer pass plays, and fewer targets to go around. If Derek Carr returns, you could maybe get away with starting Means if you’re desperate, but with a full slate of games this week, you shouldn’t be at that level of desperation. Tipton will likely lose more snaps to Taysom Hill than Means will.

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 8 : @ Den.): If you missed the blurb above about Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker, I’m advising that you stay away from all Carolina skill players except Chuba Hubbard now that we know Bryce Young will be under center. Sanders has been on a nice trajectory in recent weeks with Tommy Tremble sidelined and Andy Dalton starting – he’s set new PPR season-high point totals in 4 straight weeks, including his first top-12 positional finish of the year last weekend. I was already a little wary of Sanders this week due to the possibility of Tommy Tremble returning to the lineup. Tremble has played comfortably ahead of Sanders when healthy, and although Sanders has made a strong case in recent weeks that he should be the starter going forward, NFL coaches are usually slow to make those kinds of changes. Dave Canales will likely notice that the Panthers have been much more competitive on the scoreboard with a healthy Tommy Tremble – their only win and their only loss by 10 or fewer points were in the two games where Tremble played 80% or more of the snaps. Bryce Young under center likely makes the Tremble conversation moot this week anyway. Sanders has just 4 catches for 14 yards on throws from Bryce Young this season. He’s a risky play even as a TE2 this week regardless of Tremble’s status.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 8: @ NE): Allen’s playing time has decreased in 3 straight games now since Todd Downing took over the Jets’ offensive play-calling, bottoming out at just a 9% snap share and 3 touches in week 7. The Jets are favored by a full touchdown this week, and the Patriots are an awful run defense – they rank 28^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 3^rd-most RB points per game – but playing Allen this week is nothing more than a bet on garbage time touches. It’ll be the Breece Hall show again if it remains close, and with Drake Maye at QB for New England and the Jets’ secondary a little banged up, it might remain close.

RB Isaac Guerendo, SF (Wk. 8: vs. Dal.): Jordan Mason played in week 7 despite a questionable tag, and Guerendo played just 9% of the offensive snaps as a result. The 49ers should lean harder on the run game with their WR group in shambles due to injuries and a bout with pneumonia – the Cowboys are one of the worst run defenses in the league - but most of that work will go to Mason. Guerendo likely will play just a handful of snaps unless they run away with the game.

RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 8: @ LV): Steele made it through a game without fumbling for the first time in a few weeks last Sunday, but he played just a 19% snap share for the third week in a row. His run as a useful fantasy back this season is likely over. KC is favored by 10 points this week, so there’s a chance Steele gets a few carries in garbage time if this game is a blowout, but those carries are just as likely to go to Samaje Perine as they are to go to Steele. He’s a garbage time TD dart throw if you’re desperate this week.

RB Jonathan Brooks, CAR (Wk. 8: @ Den.): Brooks did not make his anticipated return in week 7, so we get to wait and hope he makes his NFL debut in week 8 instead. Chuba Hubbard has been playing more than 80% of the snaps in the last two weeks and has finished in the top-20 fantasy RBs in each of the last 5 games. As I mentioned last week, Brooks will need Chuba to get hurt or falter if he wants to take over the lead back role, and he’ll likely need a ramp-up period before he can even overtake Miles Sanders for the RB2 role.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 8: @ Mia.): Benson continues to be an afterthought in the Cardinals’ backfield mix. He played just 7% of the snaps on Monday night and didn’t touch the ball even once. The last time he was at a 20% or higher snap share was in week 1, and he’s tallied 5 or fewer touches in 5 out of 7 games this season. There was some hope for Benson last weekend as James Conner was battling an ankle injury, but Conner wound up dominating the backfield work Monday night. This is a week where extra opportunities would be a good thing for Benson. The Dolphins rank 30^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 6^th-most RB points per game, but I’m not confident those extra opportunities will come.

RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk.8: vs. Min.): I noted ahead of the Rams’ week 6 bye that Corum had moved ahead of Ronnie Rivers on the depth chart to become the primary backup, but his role remains extremely limited behind Kyren Williams. Corum was on the field for just 10% of the Rams’ offensive snaps last weekend and carried 3 times for 11 yards. That limited role won’t make him a useful fantasy play this week against a Minnesota defense that ranks 1^st in run defense DVOA and allows the 9^th-fewest RB points per game.

RB Marshawn Lloyd, GB (Wk. 8: @ Jax.): Lloyd is eligible to come off IR at any time for the Packers, but it sounds unlikely that he’ll get cleared to play this week. Even if he is able to play, he’s got work to do to move back ahead of Emmanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks for the backup RB job.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 8: vs. Chi.): McCaffrey has been in a route on 40% or more of the Commanders’ dropbacks in 6 of 7 games this season, but he still hasn’t been targeted more than 3 times in any game this season. He was targeted zero times in week 7, and this week faces a Chicago defense that allows the 6^th-fewest WR points per game. You’d need something miraculous to get value out of McCaffrey in your lineups this week.

WR Jacob Cowing, SF (Wk. 8: vs. Dal.): A decimated 49ers WR corps forced Cowing into his first extended action of the season last Sunday, and he posted a solid 2-50 line that included a 41-yard catch. The 49ers entered the game without Jauan Jennings, and then lost Deebo Samuel to pneumonia and Brandon Aiyuk to a torn ACL, but despite all of those missing receivers, Cowing still ranked just 4^th in route participation rate among the rest of the team’s wideouts. Ricky Pearsall (84%), Chris Conley (73%) and Ronnie Bell (38%) all ran routes at much higher rates than Cowing (22%). The big play was nice, but Cowing is no higher than 4^th on this depth chart, and he’s lower than that if Deebo or Jennings return this week.

TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 8: @ Pit.): With Malik Nabers back on the field, Johnson went back to running wind sprints. The rookie tight end was in a route on 88% of the team’s passing dropbacks, but he was credited with zero targets after the only pass thrown in his direction resulted in a zero-yard catch that was nullified by an offensive pass interference penalty. Johnson totaled 8 targets in the two games that Nabers missed. He’s totaled 4 in the last 4 games that Nabers played. The Steelers do allow the 11^th-most TE points per game, but it’s hard to produce points if the ball doesn’t come your way.

TE Erick All, CIN (Wk. 8: vs. Phi.): All hit a 50% route participation rate on Sunday, the first time all season that he’s run more routes than Mike Gesicki, but it means nothing if he’s not being targeted. This passing game has been funneled through Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase since Higgins got back up to speed. All has earned just 5 targets on 44 routes run over the last 3 games. The increased playing time is promising, but it likely doesn’t come with increased fantasy value for now.

TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 8: vs. Chi.): Sinnott finally earned his first NFL target last week, and on top of that, his first catch and first TD as well. He finished with 2 catches for 6 yards and a TD on 2 targets. Both targets happened while Washington was up by at least 30 points on the scoreboard. Don’t read anything into it. It’s not a significant change in his usage, and you can continue to ignore him in fantasy lineups this week in what should be a much more competitive contest for the Commanders.

Deep League Sleepers & Stashes:

RB Kimani Vidal, LAC (Wk. 8 : vs. NO): Vidal has averaged 5 touches and 35 yards per game in the two contests he’s played since Gus Edwards went on IR, and those were both against teams that rank in the top-10 in run defense DVOA. This week he gets to face a faltering Saints team that ranks 31^st in run defense DVOA and may have to start Spencer Rattler at QB again if Derek Carr can’t get cleared. The Chargers are currently 7-point favorites, but I’d expect that number to grow if Carr is ruled out. There could be ample opportunity for garbage time touches against a team that allows the 5^th-most RB points per game. I’d probably keep Vidal parked on the bench if Carr starts, but if it’s Rattler again, I’d treat Vidal as a sneaky upside RB4 option.

RB Audric Estime, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): Estime has played a very limited role since coming back from IR a couple weeks ago. He’s played just 7 snaps in the last 2 weeks, but there’s reason to think this week that could change this week – garbage time. The Broncos are hosting the hapless Panthers, who are forced to go back to Bryce Young at QB this week after Andy Dalton hurt his thumb in a car accident. Denver is favored by 10 points, and the Panthers rank dead last in run defense DVOA and allow more RB fantasy points per game than any other team. The Panthers have lost by 18 or more points in 5 of their 7 games this year (including both games Young has started). If things go according to plan, Estime could easily log double-digit touches in the 2^nd half of the game. I’d view this as more of a desperation option than anything since there’s never a guarantee that a game will go according to script, but the upside is there for a top-30 RB finish or better.

WR Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): I mentioned above that Troy Franklin has been at his best against man coverage this season, but the opposite has been true for Vele, who has done his best work against zone. Vele has been targeted on 23.3% of his routes vs. zone coverage, and has scored 0.45 fantasy points per route run against those coverages. The Panthers play man coverage at the 5^th-lowest rate in the league, so Vele should have some added upside this week. I like his chances to compile his way to 10-12 PPR points, which should make him a viable WR3/4 option against a Carolina team that ranks 31^st in pass defense DVOA.

WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 8: @ Hou.): Mitchell has been a frustrating player in fantasy this season because the talent is apparent when he’s on the field, but he just isn’t getting on the field enough. When Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, and Alec Pierce are all active, Mitchell is typically limited to a route participation rate somewhere south of 25%, and while Pittman and Downs didn’t practice Wednesday, they were both back Thursday and I wouldn’t hold my breath that either guy sits this week. The reason I have some interest in Mitchell this week is because this is a matchup where he could make something happen in those limited snaps. Mitchell has been targeted on a third of his routes run this year, he has an aDOT of 15.2 yards downfield, and he faces a Houston secondary that he got behind a few times in week 1 on some tantalizing near-misses. It only takes one of those near misses to turn into a connection for him to suddenly have double-digit fantasy points. Obviously, this is a low percentage bet given the playing time issues, so I probably wouldn’t plug him into lineups, but it might be worth betting a couple dollars on an anytime TD.

WR Malik Washington, MIA (Wk. 8: vs. Ari.): I wouldn’t plug Washington into any lineups this week, but it’s worth mentioning that he was in a route on 50% of the team passing dropbacks last Sunday. It was his highest mark of the season, and he played ahead of Odell Beckham Jr. in the process. Things could change for Malik this week with Tua back, and he’ll certainly have a hard time earning more than just a few opportunities per game with all of the firepower Miami has at their disposal, but he could be worth a stash in the deepest of leagues on the off chance that the 50% route participation rate last week wasn’t a fluke.

WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 8: vs. Min.): Don’t start Whittington this week, he’s been ruled out for Thursday night’s contest with the Vikings already, but he’s an intriguing buy-low candidate as the Rams actively shop Cooper Kupp around as he returns from IR. Puka Nacua is returning as well, and he definitely isn’t getting traded, but Whittington could still serve as the team WR2 the rest of the way if Kupp is dealt. Whittington has been targeted on a solid 24% of his routes run this season, and finished as the PPR WR33 and WR16 in his last two healthy games played. Whittington’s goose egg last week, absence this week, and Kupp & Puka returns could mean an impatient manager has already dropped the rookie or will take a deeply discounted price for him. He’s worth a speculative stash or cheap trade to acquire in case Kupp gets moved.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter/X (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Raise your hand if you’re tired of hearing the phrase ‘National Tight Ends’ Day’. I promise I’ll keep mentions of it to a minimum this week, but there’s no question big tight end performances were all the rage last week. 6 of the top-7 tight ends by average draft position this year matched or bested their highest fantasy point total of the year in week 8, but there was plenty of non-TE action to be excited about as well.

We DID get our showdown between Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels after Daniels was able to battle through a rib injury to be able to play, and the game didn’t disappoint. Caleb struggled for 3 quarters before righting the ship and leading a comeback that should’ve won the game, but Daniels connected on a Hail Mary that won’t be forgotten in DC or Chicago for decades. We also saw great performances by Bo Nix, Marvin Harrison Jr., Ladd McConkey, Tryone Tracy, and Keon Coleman, and hopefully we’ll be treatied to more scintillating rookie showings in week 9. Let’s not waste any more time reminiscing about last week - you’ve got new matchups to win.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s get into week 9…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 9: @ NYG): Daniels surprised me by being active last week. I really thought Dan Quinn was deploying some gamesmanship when he said last Friday that Daniels might play through his rib injury, but he wasn’t lying. Daniels made the start, and thanks to a fortuitous bounce on a Hail Mary, he finished as a top-12 QB for the 6^th time in 7 full games played this season. Interestingly enough, the one time he failed was against the Giants in week 2, but I expect a much better showing this time around. Washington wasn’t letting Daniels throw the ball downfield in his first couple of games this year, something he’s done much more regularly in recent weeks, and the Giants have allowed the 6^th-most QB rushing yards per game. Those factors are enough for me to trust Jayden as a solid QB1 once again this week

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 9: vs. Was.): Nabers certainly would be putting up gaudier numbers if he were getting better QB play, but his production this season is nothing to scoff at. He’s now earned higher than a 30% target share in each of the last 5 games he’s played, and he earned a 50% or higher air yardage share in 4 of those games (42% in the other). He hasn’t finished lower than the PPR WR35 in any game he’s been active for this season. You already know he should be locked into your lineup. He posted a line of 10-127-1 in his first meeting with the Commanders this year, and while their secondary has been playing much better in recent weeks, Benjamin St-Juste is still a very burnable individual matchup for Nabers. Nabers is a top-10 WR play this week.

WR Brian Thomas Jr., JAX (Wk. 9: @ Phi.): Thomas left last week’s game early with a chest injury and was in a route on just 49% of the Jaguars’ passing dropbacks…and he still finished the week as a fantasy WR2. There was concern that the injury would keep Thomas out for multiple weeks, but that diagnosis changed quickly and there’s a very real chance BTJ is active this week after logging limited practices on Wednesday and Thursday. If he plays, you should find a way to get him into your lineups. He faces a Philly defense that allows the 10^th-most WR points per game, and the Jags will be playing without Christian Kirk and possibly Gabe Davis as well. Those absences likely mean an even higher target share than normal for Thomas if he’s able to suit up. He’s a solid WR2 play again this week if he’s active. Just keep in mind that the Jaguars play in the late afternoon window, so you’ll need a replacement option who plays at least that late as a backup plan in case the rookie can’t get cleared to play.

TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 9: @ Cin.): Bowers posted a ho-hum stat line of 5-58 on 5 targets last week, but on National Tight Ends’ day, that performance was good enough for just a TE18 finish for the week. It’s a little troubling that Bowers earned just a 20% target share with Jakobi Meyers back in the lineup, but don’t let that cause you to waver on starting him this week. The Bengals allow the 7^th-most TE points per game, Bowers is still running a route on more than 80% of the team passing dropbacks, and there should be plenty of passing volume this week with the Raiders a 7.5-point underdog. Bowers should be locked in as a top-10 TE play as usual.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 9: @ Bal.): Nix put on a passing clinic against the hapless Panthers last Sunday, posting season-highs with 284 passing yards, 3 TD tosses, and a 124.2 passer rating. He also added 6+ fantasy points with his legs for the 6^th time this season. The Broncos’ rookie has quietly topped 19 fantasy points in 4 of his last 6 games and 21 points in 3 of his last 4. He’s worked his way up to the QB14 in PPG for the season. He faces the Ravens this week, and while the Ravens’ offense has been a juggernaut, their pass defense has been a sieve. Baltimore has allowed the 3^rd-most QB points per game and has given up more than 30 more passing yards per game than any other team in the league. They’ve allowed 4 of the last 6 QBs they’ve faced to throw for 330+ yards, and 5 of the last 6 to score at least 20 fantasy points. It all adds up to the improving Nix having huge upside this week. I’d treat him as a borderline top-10 QB option in week 9.

QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 9: @ Ari.): Williams’ performance last week in a plus matchup against the Commanders is one we’d like to forget. He did enough to have his team in a position to win before they gave up a stunning Hail Mary completion, but through 3 quarters of that game Caleb had completed just 4 of 14 passes for 36 yards. Maybe the nerves of playing in front of his hometown crowd against fellow top rookie QB Jayden Daniels got to him. Maybe Shane Waldron just called a terrible game. But either way, it was a rough performance prior to the comeback effort in the 4^th. Caleb gets another favorable matchup this week against the Cardinals. Arizona ranks 29^th in FTN’s pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 7^th-most QB points per game, and more importantly, they aren’t likely to pressure Caleb on nearly 40% of his dropbacks like the Commanders did last week. Arizona blitzes at the 2^nd-lowest rate in the league, and generates pressure at the 4^th-lowest rate. That extra time to throw should help Caleb have a much better performance. QB fantasy performances against the Cardinals this season have had some interesting groupings. One QB was held below 7 points against them. 3 QBs scored more than 25 points against them. The other 4 all scored in the narrow range between 14 and 16 fantasy points. QBs vs the Cardinals have typically either put up a middling fantasy score or an excellent one (and that one terrible one). It’s worth mentioning that the Cardinals gave up 25+ to the opposing QB in 2 of the 3 games where they traveled east for 1 PM EST starts. This week’s game is in the late afternoon. I’m not sure if the trend will hold, but somewhere around 16 points for Caleb wouldn’t surprise me. I think he’s a high end QB2 this week.

RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 9: vs. Was.): Tracy’s situation bears watching this week as he was diagnosed with a concussion on Monday night and still needs to clear the protocol, but the Giants are optimistic he’ll be able to play, and if they’re right, he should be treated as an RB2 with upside in a favorable matchup against the Commanders. Washington ranks just 24^th in run defense DVOA, and has allowed a top-24 fantasy finish to an opposing back in 7 of 8 games this season. It became clear this week that Devin Singletary wasn’t just being eased back in after his injury in week 7, he’s now the backup. The duo had equal involvement in the passing game on Monday night, but Tracy played 60% of the snaps and handled 83% of the rushing attempts. He’s now scored a TD in two of his last 3 games and topped 100 rushing yards in two of the last 4. He’s a great RB2 option as long as he’s able to clear the protocol.

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 9: vs. Chi.): Harrison got back on track in a big way last weekend, finishing with 6-111-1 on 7 targets in a tough matchup with the Dolphins. Harrison accounted for nearly half of Arizona’s air yards and was in a route on 97% of the team’s passing dropbacks. He gets another tough matchup this week against the Bears. Chicago allows the 9^th-fewest WR points per game and ranks 6^th in pass defense DVOA, but Marv’s usage and talent gives him weekly WR1 upside. We’ve seen his floor more often than the we have with Nabers or Brian Thomas, so he’s still in the Borderline section for now, especially in a tougher matchup like this, but he’s got the ability to earn his way back up to auto-start status. I’d treat him as a lower-end WR2 this week.

WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 9: @ Cle.): Like Marvin Harrison Jr., McConkey finished week 8 with 6 catches for 111 yards, but McConkey did so on just 6 targets rather than 7, and he found the end zone twice rather than just once. It was easily Ladd’s best fantasy game of the season, but it was also the 3^rd time in the last 4 games that he’s finished as a WR3 or better. The Chargers have been throwing the ball more in recent weeks, and as a result McConkey has been turning the corner in fantasy. Justin Herbert was averaging just 23 pass attempts per game before the team’s week 5 bye, but he’s averaged 35 per game in the 3 games since. This week’s matchup is also a favorable one for Ladd. The Browns allow the 5^th-most WR points per game, and they play man-to-man defense at the highest rate in the league. McConkey averages a whopping 0.92 PPR points per route run against man coverage, and his counterpart this week, Cleveland slot corner Greg Newsome II, has a PFF coverage grade of just 51.2 for the season. McConkey could feast again. He’s a solid WR3 this week.

WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 9: vs. TB): Worthy has been targeted 8+ times twice this season, and both of those happened in the last 2 games since the team lost JuJu Smith-Schuster to injury. I do expect DeAndre Hopkins’ playing time will increase in the coming weeks and eventually eat into Worthy’s targets a bit, but this week’s matchup seems well set up for Worthy’s deep ball ability. The Bucs have allowed the 4^th-most completions of 20+ yards this season, and they’re tied for the 3^rd-most completions of 40+ yards allowed. There’s always going to be an element of risk with Worthy (he’s caught just 51.4% of his targets this year), but he’s finished as a PPR WR3 or better in 3 of the last 4 games, and he’s got some extra upside this week against a Tampa defense that has struggled to limit splash plays in the passing game.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 9: @ Ten.): Maye left last week’s contest with a concussion, and at this point, it’s still up in the air whether or not he’ll get cleared to play this weekend. If he’s able to start, he’ll be taking on a Tennessee defense that has shown cracks in recent weeks, but still ranks 12^th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the fewest passing yards per game this season. Only 2 of the 7 QBs the Titans have faced reached 200+ passing yards, and one of those was a bizarre outlier game against Malik Willis. The other was against Josh Allen. Maye was impressive in his two starts this year, throwing for over 500 yards and 5 TDs, and rushing for over 50 yards to boot, but betting on another big performance in a tough matchup, coming off a concussion, feels like a risky proposition to me. I’d view Maye as a low-end QB2 this week, but the upside is there for more.

QB Spencer Rattler, NO (Wk. 9: @ Car.): Derek Carr should return to the lineup in week 9, relegating Rattler back to the bench. If that doesn’t happen, Rattler could get a start against a Carolina defense that ranks 31^st in pass defense DVOA and allows the 5^th-most QB points per game. It would be a scenario where he could be a serviceable QB2 for fantasy lineups, but keep in mind that he’s been pulled for Jake Haener in each of his last 2 starts. In week 8, he was pulled while it was still a competitive game. He’s risky here, even as a QB2, if he gets the starting nod again.

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 9: @ KC): Irving was a PPR weapon in week 8, piling up 7 catches and 84 scrimmage yards as the Bucs played without their top-2 receivers for the first time this year, but the workload split with Rachaad White wasn’t much different than what we’ve been accustomed to this season. There were some positive signs – Bucky out-carried and out-targeted White against Atlanta. It was just the 2^nd time this season he’s out-carried White when both were active, and the 1^st time he’s out-targeted him, but White still played 10 more snaps and ran 12 more routes than Irving. With that sort of usage, there’s no guarantee that Irving continues to see more opportunities. It does look like the duo has at least relegated Sean Tucker to a distant RB3 role again, and it also looks like the injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are going to lead to more targets for the running backs going forward. None of that makes Bucky a great play against a Chiefs’ team that allows the fewest running back points per game and ranks 2^nd in run defense DVOA. Only Bijan Robinson and Alvin Kamara have reached 12+ PPR points against Kansas City this season. Earning only half of the backfield work against a very difficult matchup, Bucky is just an RB3/flex option this week.

RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): Allen had seemingly been fading away from the Jets’ offense since Todd Downing took over play calling a few weeks ago, but he was back with a vengeance in week 8, handling 43% of the team rushing attempts en route to a 12-32-1 rushing performance and a RB31 finish for the week. The issue here is that we don’t know if he’ll continue to play that much going forward, and the Texans are a much tougher matchup for RBs than the Patriots were last week. Houston has allowed the 4^th-fewest RB points per game and rank 4^th in run defense DVOA. I can’t recommend starting Braelon in that matchup when the upside case is that he’ll play 35-40% of the offensive snaps.

RB Jonathan Brooks, CAR (Wk. 9: vs. NO): Brooks is practicing in full this week and seems poised to finally make his NFL debut. He may be returning at the right time – the Panthers face a New Orleans defense that ranks dead last in run defense DVOA, and Chuba Hubbard is coming off his worst fantasy performance since week 1 and has averaged fewer than 4 yards per carry in each of the last 2 contests. Unfortunately, I still think the Panthers are going to slow play Brooks’ roll out. I expect Chuba to still see the lion’s share of the backfield work with Brooks mixing in with Miles Sanders for backup opportunities. You should definitely be monitoring Brooks’ performance this week if he’s still on your league waiver wire, but I wouldn’t consider starting him this week unless you like to live very dangerously.

WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 9: vs. Mia.): Coleman continues to be an enigma for me. He struggled to break through for much of the first 6 weeks of the season when he averaged 3.3 targets and 33 yards per game. Somehow, the team trading for Amari Cooper has triggered a Coleman breakout where he’s posted lines of 4-125 and 5-70-1 over the last two weeks on 7 targets in each game. It’s easy to say that the addition of Cooper has reduced the defensive attention paid to Coleman, but that doesn’t hold up when you realize that Cooper wasn’t on the field for any of Coleman’s week 7 targets. At any rate, the Cooper addition has clearly been good for Coleman. I wouldn’t fault you if you wanted to get him in lineups again this week, but against a Miami defense that allows the fewest WR points per game, he’s just on the wrong side of the cut line for me. I expect Amari’s playing time to continue to climb, and I think it’ll be tougher for Coleman to hit the big plays that have really carried him in the last couple weeks. Miami has allowed the 7^th-fewest completions of 20+ yards this season, and have allowed just 1 connection of 40+ yards. Four of Coleman’s nine catches in the last 2 weeks have gone for 20+ yards, and 2 of them went for 40+.

WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 9: @ KC): McMillan slotted in as the Bucs’ WR1 last weekend as expected with Chris Godwin done for the year and Mike Evans sidelined for a few weeks. Jalen was in a route on 90% of the team passing dropbacks and earned a 28% air yardage share, but he earned just 15% of the targets as the passing game flowed through the running backs and tight ends. Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, and Cade Otton combined for 50% of the teams’ total targets. McMillan finished the week with 4 catches on 7 targets and 52 scrimmage yards, and that was in a good matchup against Atlanta’s bottom-10 pass defense in a game where the Bucs threw the ball 50 times. Passing volume should be plentiful again as an 8.5-point underdog against KC, but the Chiefs allow just the 7^th-fewest WR points per game and rank 8^th in pass defense DVOA. I’d view McMillan as more of a risky WR4 than a WR3 option this week.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 9: @ Ari.): Odunze faces a favorable matchup this week as the Cardinals allow the 9^th-most WR points per game, and rank 29^th in pass defense DVOA. He also saw promising usage last week, earning a 30% target share and 41% air yardage share, but those positive indicators aren’t enough for me to overlook the overall lack of production from Odunze this season. He’s finished as a PPR WR3 or better just once this year. The usage last week points to good things to come for Odunze in weeks where the Bears have passing success, and they very much should have that success against the Cardinals this week, but it’s hard to recommend Odunze as anything more than an upside WR4/5 option.

WR Jalen Coker, CAR (Wk. 9: vs. NO): Coker posted his best fantasy game of the season last week (4-78-1 on 6 targets) as Bryce Young surprisingly managed to put up a respectable passing performance against the stingy Broncos’ defense. Now the Panthers have traded away Diontae Johnson and opened up more playing time for the other receivers. Everything should be looking up for Coker going forward, right? Not so fast, my friends. Adam Thielen could be on the cusp of returning, and if he does, there’s a real risk that Coker loses a LOT of playing time. Thielen’s primary role with the Panthers has been slot receiver. He’s spent over 65% of his snaps with Carolina lined up in the slot while Coker has lined up there on 71.7% of his snaps this season. You’d hope the Panthers would find a way to work around Thielen’s return and keep their exciting rookie on the field, but Xavier Legette, Jonathan Mingo, and David Moore are all more experienced on the perimeter and are likely to cut drastically into Coker’s snaps if Thielen is indeed back this week. If Thielen sits again, or you’re confident in Coker not losing snaps this week, he’s an intriguing WR3/flex option against a New Orleans defense that allows the 7^th-most WR points per game. There’s enough risk here for me that I’d recommend against plugging him in.

WR Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 9: @ Bal.): Vele gets to face off with a Baltimore defense that allows the 2^nd-most WR points per game, but the Ravens play man coverage at the 11^th-highest rate in the league, and all of Vele’s production this year has come vs zone coverage. Vele has just 1 catch for 3 yards vs man coverage all season long, and his playing time has been decreasing since he returned to action a few weeks ago. His route participation rate has gone from 71% in week 6, to 58% in week 7, to 39% in week 8. His dwindling playing time, and his struggles against man coverage make this a bad week to trust Vele to find his way to a respectable PPR score.

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 9: vs. NO): Sanders’ positive momentum toward the TE1 ranks was derailed last week by the returns of Tommy Tremble and Bryce Young to the lineup. Sanders has undoubtedly been more successful than Tremble as a receiver this season, but the coaching staff has consistently treated Tremble as their top TE when healthy. Tremble was in a route on 51% of the Panthers’ team passing dropbacks last weekend compared to 44% for Sanders. Sanders has also struggled to put up any kind of production this year when Bryce Young is under center. He has below a 5% target share from Bryce and has totaled just 4-19 on 4 targets in Young’s 3 starts this season. The Saints are a middling TE defense, allowing the 15^th-fewest TE points per game, but you just can’t count on production here with Bryce at QB.

TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 9: vs. Was.): Johnson posted a respectable 3-35 line on 4 targets in week 8. It was his best fantasy performance of any game Malik Nabers has been active for this season. In fact, prior to week 8, Johnson had a combined total of just 3 catches for 37 yards on 8 targets in the other 5 game games Nabers played in this year. While it’s a promising sign to see Theo produce with Nabers in the lineup, it’s worth noting that 3 of the targets came in the 4^th quarter while the Giants were mounting a comeback effort, and he put up 2 catches for 28 yards on the game’s final drive. It’s possible the Giants find themselves in similar situations this week, but against a Washington defense that allows the 9^th-fewest TE points per game, I’m not going to bet on a repeat performance for Johnson here. With increased tight end production league-wide in recent weeks, even if he does post another 6–8-point performance, it’s just not that useful from your starting tight end in 12-team leagues right now.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 9: vs. Mia.): Davis gets a good matchup this week – Miami ranks 28^th in run defense DVOA and allows the 9^th-most RB points per game, but he’s played 25% or more of the snaps with James Cook active just once all year. The Bills have made a point to get him 5-8 touches per game (he carried 6 times for 29 yards last weekend), but he basically has to get in the end zone to return value on that kind of workload. That’s a risky bet to make when he’s seen just 1 carry inside the 5-yard line all season.

RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 9: @ Sea.): Corum was on the field for just 11% of the snaps in the Rams’ upset win over the Vikings last week, finishing with just 18 yards on 5 touches. He’s the clear RB2 in this backfield, but this backfield remains a one-man show.

RB Kimani Vidal, LAC (Wk. 9 : @ Cle.): Vidal’s week 8 usage was less than optimal for his outlook going forward. The Chargers played mostly from ahead, but Vidal played his lowest snap share in 3 weeks and ceded more receiving routes to JK Dobbins than usual, which is especially alarming since the Chargers have been throwing the ball more in recent weeks. Vidal finished the game with 6 carries for 16 yards and zero targets. I expected him to see an increase in playing time with the Chargers comfortable favorites, and instead, his usage went in the other direction. I wouldn’t recommend considering him against Cleveland, who allows the 6^th-fewest RB points per game.

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 9: @ Buf.): Wright has been below a 10% snap share in each of the last two games with Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane both healthy. He’s been effective when he gets carries, but the carries have been sparse, and there’s no reason to expect that to change this week, barring an injury ahead of him.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 9 : vs. Chi.): Benson has played just 8 snaps in the last two weeks, totaling 1 carry and zero targets. He’s not on the fantasy radar right now.

RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 9: vs. TB): After 3 straight weeks of playing exactly a 19% snap share, Steele’s playing time finally changed in week 8 - it dropped to 10%. He’s a distant 3^rd in the Kansas City backfield, scoring fewer than 5 total PPR points over the last 4 games, and at some point, Isiah Pacheco is going to return as well.

RB Audric Estime, DEN (Wk. 9: @ Bal.): I was optimistic that Estime would see at least a handful of garbage time touches last weekend against the Panthers, but Sean Payton couldn’t let me have that. The Broncos ran 19 offensive plays in the 2^nd half with a 3-touchdown lead last Sunday, and Estime logged just one touch in that span. Jaleel McLaughlin and Javonte Williams combined for 12 opportunities in those 19 plays as Payton kept his starters in. If Estime can’t get opportunities in blowout wins, it’s hard to envision a path to getting them this week, when the Broncos are 9.5-point underdogs.

RB Marshawn Lloyd, GB (Wk. 9: vs. Det.): At some point Lloyd is going to return from IR. And when that happens, he’ll have work to do before he can move ahead of Chris Brooks or Emmanuel Wilson on the depth chart here. If Lloyd’s active this week, anything more than a few snaps would be a surprise, and the Lions allow the 3^rd-fewest RB points per game.

RB Will Shipley, PHI (Wk. 9: vs. Jax.): Shipley handled the first 10 carries of his career in the last two games, and nearly scored his first career TD last Sunday had it not been called back on a hold, but it doesn’t mean you need to have Shipley on your radar. All 10 of his carries came in garbage time with the Eagles leading by 17points in the 4^th quarter.

WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 9 : @ Ten.): Polk should be able to return from a week 7 concussion this week, but there’s no guarantee that he’ll play a significant number of snaps or that he’ll have Drake Maye throwing him the football as Maye recovers from a concussion of his own. Polk’s playing time was already headed in the wrong direction before he suffered the injury, with Kayshon Boutte, Demario Douglas, and Kendrick Bourne serving as the team’s top 3 wide receivers. If Maye is out, starting Polk shouldn’t even be a thought in your head as potentially the WR4 against a Tennessee defense that allows the 6^th-fewest WR points per game. Jacoby Brissett hasn’t thrown for more than 168 yards in a game this year. If Maye is able to get cleared, it adds a little bit of upside to Polk, but the matchup and the playing time will still be problems.

WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 9: @ Sea.): I was hopeful for Whittington for the rest of the season last week when Cooper Kupp trade rumors were swirling. Now that Sean McVay has put those trade rumors to bed and Kupp and Puka Nacua are back in the lineup, you can probably drop Whittington in most standard redraft leagues. Kupp and Nacua will be locked into full-time roles while healthy, and that’ll leave Whittington to split WR3 work with Demarcus Robinson and Tutu Atwell.

WR Mason Tipton, NO (Wk. 9: @ Car.): Bub Means will likely miss a few weeks with a high ankle sprain, and Derek Carr is expected to return this week, but I’m not sure those things move the needle enough for Tipton to be a real consideration for lineups. Tipton has exceeded 15 receiving yards just once this season, and it happened in a contest where the Saints were playing without Chris Olave and threw nearly 40 times in a blowout loss. The Saints are favored by 7.5 points this week, so I’d expect the passing volume to be significantly lower (they threw 24 times in their blowout win over Carolina in week 1), and much of that volume will run through Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara. If you’re looking for a Saints’ sleeper in this matchup, I’d much rather target Taysom Hill or Jamaal Williams in the run game than Tipton in the passing game.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 9: @ NYG): McCaffrey nearly scored his first touchdown last Sunday, but was shoved out of bounds in the end zone before he could get his feet down for the score. It was the closest thing he had to a highlight as he finished the day with 1 catch for 8 yards on 2 targets. He logged his lowest route participation rate of the season and continued to split the WR3 snaps with Olamide Zaccheaus and Dyami Brown.

WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 9 : vs. LV): Tee Higgins was a surprising inactive last week after suffering a late-week quad injury, but the injury forced Burton into extended action for the first time since week 2. He set new season-highs in route participation rate (43%) and targets (3), and he hauled in a 41-yard catch. I’d bet against a repeat this week though. The Bengals are optimistic Higgins will be back for week 9, and Burton’s best path to fantasy usefulness is the deep ball. The Raiders haven’t allowed a completion of 40+ yards all season long.

WR Malik Washington, MIA (Wk. 9: @ Buf.): With Tua back under center in week 8, Washington’s route participation rate was back down to 30%, and Tua barely even looked his way in the game, let alone throw to him. It was a positive sign that Washington still ran more routes than Odell Beckham Jr., but I doubt we see much fantasy relevance from the rookie this year unless the Dolphins fall fully out of playoff contention and try to get the young guys some opportunities.

TE Erick All, CIN (Wk. 9: vs. LV): All’s most productive weeks this season were in September when Tee Higgins was sidelined and then working his way back into form. Erick wasn’t playing massive snap shares back then, but he was being targeted when he was on the field. Unfortunately, that high target rate for All didn’t return last weekend with Higgins sidelined again. The rookie was in a route on 38% of the team’s passing dropbacks, but he was targeted just twice. The 2-32 line he finished with is similar to the type of production he was putting up in the first few weeks of the season, but 5-7 PPR points from a tight end just isn’t as useful in lineups anymore as tight end production has increased league wide. Bringing up National Tight Ends’ day was popular last weekend, and tight end scores in week 8 were the best we’ve seen all season, but it was the 3^rd time in the last 4 weeks that at least 16 tight ends scored 10+ PPR points.

TE Cade Stover, HOU (Wk. 9: @ NYJ): Stover has seen a small uptick in his playing time and usage in recent weeks as the Texans have played without Nico Collins and now Stefon Diggs. He set new season-highs in target share and PPR points last Sunday, but he totaled just 2 catches for 19 yards on 3 targets. That sort of usage probably declines when Nico Collins returns, and this week’s opponent, the Jets, allow the 8^th-fewest TE points per game.

TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 9: @ NYG): Sinnott scored his first NFL touchdown in week 7 garbage time with Marcus Mariota in at QB, but in week 8 he was back to running a handful of target-less route. He’s still not an option in fantasy leagues.

Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:

WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 9: vs. NO): Legette is probably a bit too established to list here in the ‘Sleepers’ section of the column, but be honest…were you giving serious consideration to starting him this week with Bryce Young under center again and Adam Thielen likely returning? My guess is no, but I think you should. With Diontae Johnson gone, Legette is now the team’s top perimeter target, and the Saints, who already allow the 7^th-most WR points per game, are likely going to be playing without their top 2 perimeter cornerbacks, Marshon Lattimore and Paulson Adebo. The Saints play man-to-man coverage at the 8^th-highest rate in the league per PFF, and Legette’s 0.61 fantasy points per route run vs man coverage is far and away the best mark among the Panthers’ receivers. There’s still a lot of uncertainty here with Thielen returning, and I know we’re not ready to trust Bryce just yet, but Young was much better last week than he was prior to his benching, and I think Legette will be the biggest beneficiary if Young keeps it up this week. I’d treat him as a WR4 option and would prefer Legette over any other Carolina WR.

WR Troy Franklin, DEN (Wk. 9: @ Bal.): Like Devaughn Vele, Franklin saw his playing time go in the wrong direction last week as the Broncos heavily utilized their tight ends in the passing game. Unlike Vele, Franklin has not struggled against man-to-man coverage this season. The Ravens play man-to-man at the 11^th-highest rate in the league, and Franklin has averaged 0.73 fantasy points per route run (top-10 in the league) and earned a whopping 45.5% target rate when facing man coverage. If he’s on the field, and the other team is playing man-to-man, Bo Nix throws in his direction nearly half the time, which means he has big upside against a Ravens’ defense that allows the 2^nd-most WR points per game. This can certainly backfire if Franklin is in a route on less than 40% of the dropbacks again like he was last week, but there aren’t many guys who are rostered in as few leagues as Franklin is (he’s 12% rostered in redraft leagues on Sleeper) that have the kind of upside he does this week. If you’re scrounging the wire for a deep plug-and-play option, Franklin is your guy.

WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 9: @ Min.): I’m not sure I can tell you with a straight face to start Mitchell this week. After all, he’s posted more than 5 PPR points just once this season, but the return of Joe Flacco to the starting lineup does make him more intriguing as a stash. I keep repeating it every week – Mitchell earns targets at a high rate when he’s on the field. He’s been targeted on at least 30% of his routes run in 6 straight games. The problem is that he’s not on the field enough, and that those targets aren’t connecting often enough. According to Dwain McFarland’s (MB Fantasy Life) Utilization Tool, just 53% of Mitchell’s targets this season have been catchable. That’s largely due to Anthony Richardson’s abysmal 55.6% on-target rate. Joe Flacco is at 71.2% on the year, and Flacco was at QB for the one game where Mitchell scored more than 5 points. With Alec Pierce making less of an impact in recent weeks, there may finally be an opening for Mitchell to start logging route participation rates above 30%, and once that happens, we’re not going to be too far off from Adonai becoming a viable fantasy WR. This week’s opponent, the Vikings, do allow the most WR points per game, so there’s some YOLO appeal for the deepest of leagues this week, but I mostly mention Mitchell as a stash for the back half of the season.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter/X (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re down to just a month of regular season left before we hit the fantasy playoffs, but buckle up, because there are a lot of byes over these 4 weeks. If you’re still hunting for a playoff berth, you need to be vigilant and make sure you’re finding the right replacements for your bye week players and maximizing your weekly scores.

This week, it’s the rookie ranks that are hit hardest by byes. Malik Nabers, Marvin Harrison Jr, Bucky Irving, and Tyrone Tracy among many others have the week off, so we’re digging a little deeper to try to find relevant rookies this week, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t any rookies who can help you. Can Bo Nix keep producing? Is Caleb due for a bounce back? How worried should you be about Brian Thomas Jr.? Is Audric Estime’s usage for real? Keep reading for the answers to those questions and a lot more.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s dive into week 11…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 11: @ Phi.): Daniels has posted 2 games in his last 4 with fewer than 10 fantasy points, and this week he faces a Philly defense that has allowed the 4^th-fewest QB points per game, but I’d be willing to keep plugging Daniels in if you have him. The Eagles’ stellar ranking against QBs has been aided by dominating bad QBs like Daniel Jones, Deshaun Watson and Cooper Rush. Philly has played 5 games this season against QBs that currently rank in the top-18 in fantasy points per game. They’ve given up an average of 19.8 QB fantasy points per game in those 5 contests. Jayden Daniels is currently the QB8 in PPG this season. This might not be a ceiling week for the rookie, but I wouldn’t panic about the matchup too much. I wouldn’t be sitting him anywhere unless it was for a bona fide stud QB.

TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 11: @ Mia.): It’s been at least mildly concerning that Bowers has been out-targeted by Jakobi Meyers in each of the two games since Meyers returned from injury – Bowers was at a 30% or higher target share for 3 straight games before dropping to exactly 20% in weeks 8 & 9 with Meyers back – but that concern isn’t enough for me to move Bowers out of the top-5 TEs for this week. Bowers is the TE2 for the year, and while the Dolphins allow just the 8^th-fewest TE points per game, they were shredded by the only TE they’ve faced that is on Bowers’ level. Trey McBride tallied 9-124 on 11 targets against the Phins in week 8. Bowers will always get enough targets for a solid floor, and the weekly upside is always the TE1 overall.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Towards Starting:

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 11: vs. Atl.): Nix has finished as a QB1 in 4 of the last 6 weeks, and as the QB18 or better in all 6 of those weeks. The rookie seems to have hit his groove and is a weekly fringe QB1 play. His legs consistently provide enough boost to his fantasy bottom line to overcome shaky passing days. This week he gets to face an Atlanta defense that has allowed multiple TD passes in 6 straight games, allowing at least 16.9 fantasy points to the opposing QBs in each of those contests. Don’t be afraid to treat Nix as a fringe QB1 once again.

QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 11: vs. LAR): I wouldn’t feel great about plugging in Maye as a QB1 this week, but in superflex formats, he should be a solid QB2 against the Rams. Maye’s passing numbers have been down in the last two games against good defenses in Tennessee and Chicago, but the Rams rank just 21^st in FTN’s pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 16^th-most QB points per game. The Rams allow 241 passing yards per game, and with the Pats being 5-point underdogs this week, I expect solid volume throwing the ball for Drake. With the added bonus of his rushing output (Maye has averaged 5.6 fantasy points per start in rushing production), Maye should have no problem finishing as a mid-range QB2 this week.

RB Audric Estime, DEN (Wk. 11: vs. Atl.): Sean Payton did more than just follow through on his stated plan to give Estime a bigger workload in week 10…he practically gave him the backfield workload to himself. Estime played less than 50% of the snaps on Sunday, but he handled 14 out of the team’s 17 running back rushing attempts while Javonte Williams was limited to one carry and Jaleel McLaughlin to just two. Estime turned those carries into just 53 yards (3.8 ypc), but he was facing a stout KC run defense and HC Sean Payton said after the game that “He’ll continue to get more reps.” If Estime has a similar workload in week 11, he should have better results against an Atlanta defense that ranks 19^th in run defense DVOA and has allowed 11+ fantasy points to 5 running backs in the last 4 weeks. There’s some risk here since Estime isn’t really involved in the passing game and Sean Payton has been inconsistent with his skill player usage all year, but Estime is an upside RB3 for me this week. I’m willing to take Payton at his word that Estime’s rushing usage will continue.

WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 11: vs. Cin.): McConkey suffered through the worst usage we’ve seen for him all year in week 10, as he was limited to just a 12% target share despite being in a route on more than 90% of the team passing dropbacks. He still finished as a WR4 for the week despite the low target share, and this week feels like a great spot for some squeaky wheel treatment against a Cincy defense that ranks 27^th in pass defense DVOA. We’ve seen the Chargers’ passing volume dip in the last couple of games after some spike weeks prior, but that should rebound a bit against a Bengals team that is worse against the pass than the run. I expect McConkey to be back up to his usual 20-25% target share range, which should get him to the WR3 ranks if the passing volume is low again, and even higher than that if there is, in fact, a rebound.

WR Ricky Pearsall, SF (Wk. 11: vs. Sea.): Pearsall is the definition of a borderline play this week. We’ve now seen him back on the field for 3 weeks, and with Jauan Jennings fully healthy, Pearsall seems to have settled in right around a 70% route participation rate and 18% target share, averaging 5 targets per game over the last 3 contests. Those numbers aren’t overwhelming, but Pearsall has made hay with the opportunities, finishing as the PPR WR35 and WR12 in the last 2 weeks. He faces Seattle this week, who allows the 10^th-most WR points per game. George Kittle is battling an injury, so there could be a few extra targets for the WRs in this one, but I expect Pearsall is going to end up in the same 5-6 target range that he’s landed in the last couple weeks. The question is if you trust his talent enough to put up a useful performance on that workload against a below average Seattle pass defense. I view Pearsall as a solid WR4 option this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 11: vs. GB): With only 28 teams in action this week, any starting QB is in consideration for a start in 2-QB formats, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable plugging in Caleb as my QB2 this week. The Bears’ passing game has looked broken in recent weeks. Caleb threw for just 36 yards in the first 50 minutes against the Commanders in week 8 before a valiant 4^th quarter comeback was thwarted by a Hail Mary, and in the two games since, Caleb has thrown for a total of just 337 yards and zero TDs as the Bears have mustered just 12 total points. The recent ineptitude did result in the firing of OC Shane Waldron, but I’m not sold that Thomas Brown calling plays will result in immediate improvements. Brown called plays in 7 games for the Panthers last season. Carolina scored fewer than 20 points in 6 of them, and fewer than 10 points in 4. They were also held below 300 total yards in 4 of those games. It’s true the Bears have more offensive skill to work with than the 2023 Panthers, but Brown’s track record still doesn’t instill confidence. On the other side of this game, the Packers allow the 8^th-fewest QB points per game and have held 4 of their last 5 QB opponents below 15 fantasy points. Caleb probably makes it 5 of 6 this week.

RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 11: vs. Ind.): I fell into the trap last week of thinking Ray Davis could be a sleeper against a middling Colts’ defense as his team’s RB2, and I was way off base, so I’m not going back to that well this week with Allen. It’s worth noting that Allen has handled at least 40% of the Jets’ rushing attempts in 2 of their last 3 games, so similar usage here would give him some appeal if you’re desperate. The Colts allow the 16^th-most RB points per game, but I wouldn’t view Braelon as anything more than a fringe RB3 this week.

RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 11: vs. KC): Unfortunately for Davis, his blow-up game in week 9 did not lead to increased usage in week 10. Davis piled up 90 yards and a score on just 6 touches in week 9, but he was limited to just 10 snaps and 3 carries last Sunday, finishing with 6 scrimmage yards. I’m not sure there’s any path to trusting him this week against the Chiefs, who rank 3^rd in run defense DVOA and allow the fewest RB points per game. You’d basically be hoping he turns just a few touches into big production like he did a couple weeks ago.

WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX (Wk. 11: @ Det.): Thomas has struggled over the last couple weeks as he’s battled a chest injury and a backup QB. He’s totaled fewer than 10 PPR points in the last two weeks and will have to deal with Mac Jones at QB for at least another game. I’m more worried about Jones than the injury. Jones barely even glanced in Thomas’ direction last week. The rookie finished with 2-12 on 3 targets, but his first catch of the game didn’t happen until the final 5 minutes of the contest. Part of the issue was that the Jaguars took the ball out of Mac Jones’ hands. Jones attempted just 22 passes all game, and 8 of them were in those final 5 minutes. Jacksonville was able to limit that passing volume because they never trailed by more than 5 points. I don’t expect that to be the case this week, as Detroit is favored by two touchdowns. If the Jags fall behind by multiple scores, I expect a lot more passing volume from Jacksonville in this game, and that could work out great for Thomas against a defense that allows the 4^th-most WR points per game. The concern though, is that if Jones doesn’t push the ball down the field at all, Thomas will need extra target volume to get to a productive fantasy day, and we’ve already seen Jones target Thomas on less than 15% of his throws for one start. If you have to start Thomas this week, there are some reasons for optimism – the likely increased passing volume, the good matchup, and the chance that the injury was a bigger part of the issue and he’s healthier now – but he’s still catching passes from Mac Jones. If you have safer options, I’d probably start them instead.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 11: vs. GB): There have been signs of life from Odunze in recent weeks despite some ugly overall performances for Chicago. Since the team’s week 7 bye, Odunze has earned a 24% target share and averaged 9.7 PPR points per game – marks he only hit once in a game prior to the bye. He’s been targeted at least 6 times in each of the last 3 contests and now seems to be closer to on equal footing with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen in the target pecking order. That could change with Thomas Brown calling plays this week, of course, but it remains hard to trust Odunze even if the usage remains strong. Green Bay has allowed the 13^th-fewest WR points per game and hasn’t allowed any receiver in their last 5 games to catch for more than 60 yards against them. If there’s an offensive bounce back under Moore, Odunze has WR3 or better upside, but I’m not counting on that bounce back. I’d treat him as more of a WR4/WR5 option this week.

WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 11: @ Buf.): Things have been pretty bleak for Worthy’s fantasy outlook since KC added DeAndre Hopkins to the mix. Hopkins has been on the field for more than half the snaps in each of the last two weeks, and in those 2 games, Worthy has totaled just 1 scrimmage yard on 8 opportunities (6 targets and 2 rushing attempts). There’s always the threat of a big play with Worthy, but Buffalo is tied for the 6^th-fewest completions of 20+ yards allowed, and tied for the 4^th-fewest completions of 40+ yards allowed. They also allow the 8^th-fewest WR points per game. KC’s WR depth chart also could get more crowded if they get JuJu Smith-Schuster back this week. Worthy should be on the field a lot, but it’s hard to envision him being peppered with targets, and this matchup is a bad one to bet on splash plays for the rookie.

WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 11 : vs. LAR): It was reported ahead of New England’s week 10 game in Chicago that Head Coach Jerod Mayo had pulled Kendrick Bourne aside and told him that he was going to be benched so the team could give reps to their young receivers…and then they played veteran KJ Osborn ahead of Polk. Polk did post his second-best fantasy game of the year last Sunday (7.2 PPR points), but he ran just 10 routes to Osborn’s 16 while Demario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte served as the WR1 and WR2. The Rams do allow the 8^th-most WR points per game, but you can’t trust Polk in lineups when he’s on the wrong half of a WR3 split right now.

WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 11: @ NYJ): With Michael Pittman Jr. sidelined last weekend, and Joe Flacco under center, Mitchell posted his best performance of the season, pulling in all 6 of his targets for 61 yards while logging a 95% route participation rate. Unfortunately for Mitchell, Pittman is expected back this week and Anthony Richardson will be back at QB. Mitchell has caught just 5 of 17 targets from Richardson this year, and he’ll likely be relegated to playing only a quarter of the time with Pittman back. Making matters worse, this week’s opponent, the Jets, allow the fewest WR fantasy points per game. Adonai can be safely parked on the bench despite his promising week 10 performance.

WR Troy Franklin, DEN (Wk. 11: vs. Atl.): It’s been 4 weeks since the last time Franklin logged a route participation rate of 60% or higher, and Franklin hasn’t scored 4+ PPR points in any game where he’s been below that mark. He’s also been much better against man-to-man coverage than zone, and Atlanta plays man-to-man defense on just 14% of plays, the second-lowest rate in the league. Franklin scores more than 3 times as many fantasy points per route run against man coverage as he does against zone. This shapes up as a matchup that doesn’t favor the rookie, and the potential return of Josh Reynolds could further muddy the waters. Franklin should remain on benches in all formats this week.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 11: @ NE): Corum has totaled 28 snaps, 15 carries, and 3 targets in the Rams last 5 games. He scored 3 or more PPR points in just one of those games. The matchup here is favorable for running backs, but Corum should be very lightly involved as usual.

RB Marshawn Lloyd, GB (Wk. 11: @ Chi.): There’s a chance Lloyd comes off IR this week, but he’s going to likely be buried on the depth chart behind Josh Jacobs, Chris Brooks, and Emmanuel Wilson. I don’t expect him to have a fantasy-useful role in his first game back, but he’s worth monitoring in deeper leagues.

RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 11: @ Buf.): Steele hasn’t hit a 20% snap share or 3+ PPR points in any of KC’s last 6 games. He’ll become even more of an afterthought in a couple weeks when Isiah Pacheco returns to the lineup.

RB Isaac Guerendo, SF (Wk. 11: vs. Sea.): With Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason both back last weekend, Guerendo was limited to just 3 offensive snaps. We know he can produce when he gets opportunities, but those opportunities won’t be there with CMC and Mason healthy.

RB Kimani Vidal, LAC (Wk. 11: vs. Cin.): Vidal was a healthy scratch last Sunday with Gus Edwards back from IR. There’s not much reason to consider him for lineups when you don’t know if he’ll even be active.

WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 11: @ LAC): With Tee Higgins sidelined again last week, the Bengals went out of their way to get Burton involved, but things didn’t work out quite as planned against a Baltimore defense that has been bleeding points to receivers. Burton was in a route on more than 50% of the team dropbacks, but he turned 5 targets into just 1 catch for 11 yards while Ja’Marr Chase blew up for more than 200 yards. Higgins is practicing this week and could return, but even if he’s out again, the Chargers are a lot less giving to wideouts than the Ravens. LA allows the 7^th-fewest WR points per game and ranks 5^th in pass defense DVOA. If Higgins plays, Burton will be an afterthought. If Tee is out again, Burton will be a deep ball dart throw facing a tough defense.

WR Malachi Corley, NYJ (Wk. 11: vs. Ind.): As I expected, Corley got a bump in playing time with Mike Williams traded away and Allen Lazard still on IR, but it didn’t result in a significant bump in opportunities. Corley was in a route on 32% of the team dropbacks and finished with just 1 catch for 2 yards on 2 targets last Sunday. Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams are going to dominate the targets in this passing game, which means Corley needs to have a stranglehold on all of the WR3 work to have any real fantasy upside. Right now he’s ceding more than half of that WR3 work to Xavier Gipson.

WR Malik Washington, MIA (Wk. 11: vs. LV): Washington scored his first career TD last week on an 18-yard rush, and added a 17-yard reception for good measure, but it was the first time this season that he’s run fewer routes than Odell Beckham Jr. If he’s dropping to 4^th on this depth chart, his already minimal fantasy upside takes a hit.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 11: @ Phi.): McCaffrey saw a meaningful uptick in usage last weekend, logging his highest route participation rate, target share, and fantasy point total since week 5, but that amounted to just 18 routes run, 3 targets, and 3.3 PPR points. Hopefully his usage continues to trend upward, but you can’t start a WR who has just one performance of 5+ PPR points all season.

WR Mason Tipton, NO (Wk. 11: vs. Cle.): Tipton has become an expert at running wind sprints this season as he’s failed to make much of a fantasy impact even as the Saints have been decimated at WR. He’s scored fewer than 4 PPR points in all but one game this year despite being on the field a ton. Tipton was in a route on 59% of the Saints team dropbacks last weekend (the first time he’s been below 80% since week 6), but didn’t earn a single target. Meanwhile, street free agents Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Dante Pettis, and Kevin Austin all caught passes for the Saints last Sunday. It’s hard to envision Tipton breaking through against Cleveland this week. The Browns play man-to-man coverage at the highest rate in the league, and per PFF, Tipton hasn’t caught a single pass against man coverage this season.

WRs Johnny Wilson & Ainias Smith, PHI (Wk. 11: vs. Was.): Wilson scored his first career TD on Sunday, but he ran just 5 routes all games. Smith caught 2 passes for 6 yards on Sunday, but ran just 4 routes. Both players are afterthoughts in this offense.

WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 11: @ NE): Whittington was active on Monday night, but he didn’t run a single route. He’s buried on the depth chart now that Kupp and Nacua are back.

TE Cade Stover, HOU (Wk. 11: @ Dal.): Stover will likely see his limited TE2 role diminished even further with the impending return of Nico Collins this week. He’s been at a 30% or higher route participation rate in 4 of the 5 games Collins missed, but didn’t top 22% in any of the games Collins played. Stover wasn’t doing much with that extended playing time anyway (he scored just 7.6 total PPR points in those 5 games with Collins out), but that extended playing time likely starts taking a hit this week.

TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 11: @ Phi.): Sinnott logged his lowest route participation rate of the season in week 10 (5%). He’s earned just 3 targets all season and has run more routes than TE2 John Bates in just 2 games this season.

Rookies on Byes in Week 11: RB Tyrone Tracy Jr., NYG, RB Bucky Irving, TB, RB Trey Benson, ARI, RB Jonathon Brooks, CAR, WR Malik Nabers, NYG, WR Marvin Harrison Jr., ARI, WRs Jalen Coker & Xavier Legette, CAR, WR Jalen McMillan, TB, TE Já’Tavion Sanders, CAR, TE Theo Johnson, NYG, TE Tip Reiman, ARI

Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:

WR Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 11: vs. Atl.): I’ve mentioned it before in this space – Devaughn Vele does almost all of his damage against zone coverage, and the Falcons play zone coverage at the 4^th-highest rate in the league. Vele leads the Broncos in fantasy points per route run vs. zone coverage, and his 21.4% target rate vs zone is just 1 % lower than Courtland Sutton’s rate. Sutton will continue to function as the WR1 in this offense, but Vele’s role seems a bit more secure after logging an 82% route participation rate in week 10. If he’s on the field that much against Atlanta, double-digit PPR points seems likely. Keep tabs on the Broncos’ injury report this week if you’re planning on starting Vele, though. Josh Reynolds was designated to return this week, and if he’s active in week 11, it could throw a wrench into this situation. Vele becomes much dicier if that’s the case.

TE AJ Barner, SEA (Wk. 11: @ SF): With Noah Fant out in week 9, Barner served as the clear TE1, running a route on 86% of the team passing dropbacks and earning 7 targets. Fant isn’t practicing this week as of Wednesday, and if he misses another game, Barner should again serve as the lead tight end. The 49ers are a tough matchup, allowing the 9^th-fewest TE points per game, and DK Metcalf should return this week and take back his usual target share, so this isn’t a high ceiling game for Barner. Still, he’s going to be on the field a lot in a game where the Seahawks are 6.5-point underdogs and should be throwing plenty. There’s a strong chance he returns mid-range TE2 production this week if Fant sits, and a TD would likely push him into the top-12 for the week.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter/X (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully the first 11 weeks of the season have put you in a good position as we head into the closing stretch of the fantasy regular season, because byes are going to make two of the next three weeks pretty hairy. It starts this week, with 6 teams on byes in week 12 that include 2 of the top-5 QBs, 4 of the top-13 RBs, 4 of the top-14 WRs, and 3 of the top-12 TEs in points per game. If your teams aren’t impacted in week 12, consider yourself extremely lucky, though I’m guessing that means you’ll be impacted in week 14.

With so many byes this week, you may have to dig a little deeper to fill starting spots than usual, so you’re going to see some rookies below with more favorable recommendations than they’d normally get with a full slate of games, and quite a few more rookie deep league sleepers than usual. I’m going to harp on it a lot, but when there are this many byes, the standards of what guys you should be considering get lowered.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s get into week 11…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 12: @ LV): After a few down weeks for Jayden Daniels, it’s now Bo Nix who is the safest weekly fantasy start among the rookie QBs. Nix has rattled off 5 top-12 finishes in his last 7 games, including weekly finishes as the QB2, QB3, QB8 and QB9 in that span. He finished as a mid-range QB2 in both games where he failed to crack the top-12, so the floor has been solid as well. This week he faces a Vegas defense that has allowed the 8^th-most QB points per game and ranks 26^th in FTN’s pass defense DVOA stat. The Raiders have given up multiple passing scores and 23+ fantasy points to 4 of the last 6 QBs they’ve faced, including to Bo Nix in week 5. With Joe Burrow and Josh Allen on byes this week, Nix is a top-10 QB play for me.

RB Tyrone Tracy, Jr., NYG (Wk. 12: vs. TB): There’s no reason to overthink this one. Tracy has a clear lead back role and is about to face a Tampa defense that allows the 6^th-most RB points per game. The switch to Tommy DeVito shouldn’t be a problem for Tracy. It could mean they lean harder on the run game, but DeVito also has shown to be more willing to throw to running backs than Daniel Jones when he’s had chances to play. Jones targeted RBs on 18.3% of his passes in 2023, and on 14.5% in 2024. For DeVito, that rate in 2023 was 23.2%. More targets against the Bucs would be a huge boost to Tracy, as Tampa allows the 3^rd-most RB receptions per game and the most RB receiving yards per game. You also don’t need to worry about Tracy ceding that receiving work to Devin Singletary. Tracy has logged route participation rates of 55% or higher in 3 of the 4 games he’s started when Singletary has been active. It’s Tracy’s backfield. With 6 teams on byes, the rookie is a solid RB2 this week.

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 12: vs. TB): The QB changes for the Giants this week, but I don’t think it’s any worse than a lateral move for Nabers. Daniel Jones was providing arguably the worst QB play in the NFL, and Head Coach Brian Daboll has already been gushing about Tommy DeVito’s ability to make anticipation throws, telling Nabers to “get your head around, because he will throw it before you break.” Nabers has been a WR3 or better in every single game he’s played this year, but in recent weeks he’s sort of hovered around the WR2/3 borderline. I’d expect his floor to remain in that range, but the hope is that DeVito brings back some of that top-10 upside that Nabers showed earlier this year. You know he’s going to continue to see 30% of the targets, and the Bucs allow the 6^th-most WR points per game. Nabers should continue to be started with confidence.

TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 12: vs. Den.): Bowers is coming off his best performance of the season, and is easily pacing to post the best rookie tight end season since Mike Ditka’s 12-TD rookie campaign back in the 60s. The matchup here isn’t a great one – Denver allows the 12^th-fewest TE points per game – but Bowers racked up 13-126-1 last weekend against a Miami team that entered the week allowing the 8^th-fewest. Bowers has earned 10+ targets in 4 of his past 6 games, and he’s an easy call as a top-3 option at tight end this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Dal.): Daniels has been slipping in recent weeks. He still ranks as the QB6 by total points, but he’s finished as the QB24 or worse in 3 of the last 5 games. On paper, Dallas looks like a great matchup to right the ship – the Cowboys allow the 5^th-most QB points per game and rank 29^th in pass defense DVOA – but Dallas’ defense has been badly hampered by injuries and is getting healthier. Micah Parsons returned last week after a 6-week absence, and Marshawn Kneeland and DaRon Bland could both be active this week. Kneeland, like Parsons, was hurt in week 4, and Bland would be making his season debut. The Cowboys have allowed 25+ points to an opposing QB 4 times this year. 3 of them were with Parsons & Kneeland sidelined. They’ve held 3 of the 5 QBs they’ve faced with Parsons active below 13 points. With that said, the Dallas defense remains really bad against the run, and they’ve especially struggled with mobile QBs. The 5 QBs that have scored 20+ fantasy points against Dallas this year have averaged 10.1 fantasy points against them from just rushing production, and that includes 0.5 points from Jared Goff. Daniels should have success running the ball, and I think he finds his way back into the ranks of the QB1s this week.

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 12: @ NYG): Irving has finished as a top-18 PPR back in 4 of his last 5 games, and now gets to face a Giants’ defense that has allowed 773 rushing yards in their last 4 contests. Irving has posted those performances in a stretch where Tampa has played mostly from behind, which tends to favor Rachaad White. During the current Tampa 4-game losing streak, White has run 31 more receiving routes than Irving, but carried the ball 9 fewer times. This week, Tampa is favored by 5.5-points and should be playing from ahead for a change. That should slant this backfield in Irving’s favor for the week, and against a terrible Giants’ run defense, he should have no trouble putting together an RB2 finish. It’s worth mentioning though that the Bucs have talked about wanting to get Sean Tucker involved again, but I think we likely won’t see Tucker for more than a couple plays unless we get into garbage time late.

WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 12: vs. Bal.): In all honesty, I could probably move McConkey up to the section above, and you probably wouldn’t bat an eye. Touchdowns and ceiling weeks haven’t been easy to come by for the rookie – he has just one top-12 fantasy finish all year – but he’s been a top-30 finisher in 5 of his last 7 games, and this week sets up really nicely for him against a Ravens’ team that is significantly better defending the run than the pass. Baltimore allows the most WR fantasy points per game, and they play man-to-man coverage at the 12^th-highest rate in the NFL. No WR has been better against man coverage than McConkey this year. Per PFF, he’s averaging 0.82 PPR points per route run against man coverage, the best rate in the league this year (minimum 50 routes run), and he ranks 5^th in yards per route run against man coverage with 4.02. With all the byes this week, it’s hard to see him as anything less than a solid WR2 play.

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 12: @Sea.): Rostering Harrison has been much more of a roller coaster ride than it should be for a player who has a 42% air yardage share for the season and has been above a 20% target share in 8 of his last 9 games (he left the other game early with a concussion). In the 8 games where he’s seen over a 20% target share, he’s finished as a top-25 PPR WR 5 times, and he’s finished outside the top-45 3 times. There hasn’t been much of a middle ground. With all of the byes this week, I find it hard to believe he’ll finish outside the top-45 WRs in week 12, especially against the Seahawks. Seattle allows the 12^th-most WR points per game, and they’re in the top half of the league in man coverage rate. Harrison has done his best work against man coverage – per PFF, he ranks in the top-10 receivers in the league in fantasy points per route run vs. man coverage (minimum 25 routes), and he earns a target on a third of his routes against man-to-man defenses. I’d treat him as a fringe WR2 option this week.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 12: vs. Min.): Odunze gets the benefit of the doubt this week because of the bye-pocalypse. The Bears’ passing game looked competent for the first time in weeks last Sunday now that Thomas Brown is calling the plays, and since week 8 Rome has a 26% target share and 40% air yardage share, both team highs. They’ve finally started to run the passing game through him a bit more, and the Vikings allow the 3^rd-most WR points per game. I wouldn’t view Odunze as anything more than a WR3 option given how inconsistent the Bears’ passing game and Odunze’s production have been, but if you’ve got the fortitude to start him, there’s a solid chance it’ll pay dividends.

WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 12: @ Car.): In all honesty, Worthy probably isn’t a great option this week, but if you’re impacted by byes, there aren’t a lot of players who offer a higher ceiling than Worthy. The likeliest way this game plays out is that the Chiefs lean on a returning Isiah Pacheco and the run game and easily beat a Carolina team that they’re favored to beat by double-digits, but part of me believes Mahomes and the Chiefs are itching for an opportunity to finally have an offensive explosion, and Carolina may offer the perfect matchup to do it. The Panthers rank 30^th in pass defense DVOA and dead last in run defense DVOA, and Kansas City hasn’t scored more than 30 points in a game this year. We know Mahomes and the Chiefs have a 40-point game in them, and if that happens, the chances are pretty good that Xavier Worthy scores one of the TDs. Worthy’s targets have been down since DeAndre Hopkins joined the team, but he turned 5 targets and 1 rushing attempt into a top-20 finish against a strong Buffalo defense last weekend. A similar workload against a bad Panthers’ defense could be on tap this week. I see Worthy as a boom-or-bust WR3/4 play this week. If you believe the Chiefs’ offense explodes, he’s probably worth rolling the dice on.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 12: @ Mia.): Obviously, you probably don’t want to start Maye in single QB formats against the Dolphins, who allow the 3^rd-fewest QB points per game, but don’t let that defense scare you off of him if you’re considering him for a QB2 spot. Miami was dominant against QBs early in the year, but they’ve been much more vulnerable in recent weeks and now rank 16^th in pass defense DVOA. In their last 4 contests, Miami has allowed nearly 280 passing yards per game and gave up multiple TD passes 3 times, including to Gardner Minshew last weekend. There are going to be rookie mistakes with Maye – he’s thrown 6 INTs in 5 full games played – but we know he’s going to be aggressive and make plays as well, and he provides a boost with his legs that can offset some of the mistakes (Maye averages 41 rushing yards per game in his 6 starts). I’d view Maye as a mid-range QB2 this week in a matchup that isn’t quite as tough as it seems on paper.

QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 12: vs. Min.): The switch to Thomas Brown at OC proved to be a fruitful one for Caleb for at least one week. The Bears’ offense looked much sharper than they had in weeks under Shane Waldron, and Caleb was more decisive and willing to take off and run when he didn’t get the looks he wanted in the passing game. Caleb finished with his 2^nd-highest completion percentage of the season, 231 passing yards, and 70 rushing yards, but was just the QB21 for the week due to lack of touchdowns. I’m hopeful the positive strides continue this week, but the Vikings’ defense is a different animal than Green Bay’s. Minnesota ranks 1^st in pass defense DVOA, allows the 10^th-fewest QB points per game, and allows the fewest QB rushing yards per game. In fact, no QB they’ve faced has run for 20+ yards against them. Caleb is going to have to win throwing the ball against the best pass defense in the league. With only 26 teams in action, Caleb is of course in consideration for superflex spots if you’re in a pinch, but I wouldn’t consider him as a fill-in QB1 this week.

RB Audric Estime, DEN (Wk. 12: @ LV): Sean Payton loves to mess with us on a weekly basis, doesn’t he? The Broncos’ head coach had teased bigger workloads for Estime multiple times earlier this season without following through, so it was a surprise when Estime handled 14 of the team’s 17 RB carries in week 10 despite Payton talking him up that week. When Payton continued to talk him up into week 11, it was only natural to believe that his large workload would continue, but Payton pulled the rug out from under us last Sunday. Estime was one of the most added players in fantasy leagues last week, and is one of the most dropped players this week after finishing with just 25 yards on 9 touches against Atlanta. 9 touches may sound like a decent workload, but 7 of those touches came in 2^nd half garbage time after Denver had opened up a 28-6 lead. Javonte Williams served as the clear lead back, and Estime handled mop up duty. This week’s matchup is another one that the Broncos could win comfortably – they’re 5.5-point road favorites in Vegas – and the Raiders allow the 7^th-most RB points per game, but you’re taking a huge risk if you’re relying on Estime in lineups this week. I know there are a lot of byes this week and you may be desperate for RB help, but with Payton in charge, Estime could see 20 touches or he could see 3. If I had to pick a Denver back to start this week, I’m picking Javonte.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 12: @ Sea.): Benson has tallied at least 10 PPR points in each of his last two games, but Arizona has had a strange habit of playing in lopsided games this year, and most of Trey’s playing time has come in garbage time. He’s logged 4 games this year with at least 9 touches, and all 4 of those games were decided by 20+ points. Just 14 of his 54 touches for the season have come in situations where the margin on the scoreboard was less than 14 points. I bring this up because the Cardinals are 1-point underdogs in Seattle. If this game is as close as Vegas thinks it’ll be, Benson likely will be limited to just a few touches. Seattle isn’t a daunting matchup for running backs, allowing the 11^th-most RB points per game, but starting Benson is a bet on this game being more lopsided than it should be on paper.

WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 12: vs. KC): Legette has been serving as the Panthers’ de facto WR1 since the Diontae Johnson trade, and while that’s a good thing for him in general, it’s not great when you’re facing the Chiefs because it means a head-to-head matchup with Trent McDuffie. McDuffie has allowed just 5.6 yards per target on throws into his coverage this season, and he’s a big part of the reason why Kansas City allows the 3^rd-fewest fantasy points to perimeter wide receivers. Legette only has one top-24 fantasy finish this season, and in this tough matchup it’s likely he will finish below his normal production. I’d view him as a WR4 option this week at best.

WR Ricky Pearsall, SF (Wk. 12: @ GB): It’s always difficult to trust a player in your lineup the week after he puts up a goose egg. In his first 3 games played, Pearsall finished as the PPR WR46, WR35, and then WR12 before being blanked last Sunday on 2 targets. I don’t expect Pearsall to get shut out again, but he’s comfortably behind all of Jauan Jennings, Deebo Samuel, CMC, and George Kittle in the team target pecking order, and that’s going to make him hit-or-miss on a weekly basis. This week he faces the Packers, who allow the 10^th-fewest WR points per game. Green Bay will be without Jaire Alexander in this contest, so Pearsall gets a small bump, but I’m not sure it’s enough to make me comfortable starting him when he could be limited to just a few touches.

WR Troy Franklin, DEN (Wk. 12: @ LV): Franklin found the end zone last weekend and has seen his route participation rate increase in each of the last 3 weeks, but he’s still limited to a part-time role, he’s not earning targets at a high rate, and Sean Payton could pull the rug out from under us at any moment and cut his involvement in half. Franklin hasn’t earned higher than a 10% target share since week 7, and even with the TD last weekend, he finished as the PPR WR40 for the week. This week’s opponent, the Raiders, do play man-to-man coverage at a significantly higher rate than the Falcons do, and Franklin does his best work against man coverage, but the Raiders are still only playing man-to-man at a league average rate. I wouldn’t want to trust Franklin this week, even in deeper leagues.

TE AJ Barner, SEA (Wk. 12: vs. Ari.): Noah Fant is questionable again this week, so the door is open for another Barner start in Seattle, but I would look for other options this week, even if you’re desperate for a fill in. The Cardinals allow the 8^th-fewest TE points per game and have only allowed 2 tight ends all year to catch for 40+ yards (George Kittle and Will Dissly), and only Kittle to reach the end zone. Barner’s average target has been just 3.3 yards downfield in his two games as starter, so you’re banking on a TD or a bunch of targets to get a respectable performance if you start him.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 12: vs. NE): Wright has seemingly moved ahead of Raheem Mostert in this backfield, but there’s a chance that’s due to a groin injury Mostert has been dealing with. Wright has out-snapped Mostert in each of the last two games, but so far it hasn’t resulted in a large workload, as he’s logged just 6 touches in each of those contests. The last time he handled more than 6 touches in a game was back in week 5 when he tallied 13 carries for 86 yards against these same Patriots he’s facing this week. In that game, De’Von Achane suffered an early concussion and Wright split the backfield work with Mostert. I wouldn’t expect a repeat here. Tyler Huntley was at QB in that game, and the Dolphins called a run-heavy gameplan. I’d be surprised if Wright gets to double-digit touches this time around, and I wouldn’t view him as anything more than a desperation option. 

RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 12: @ Car.): Steele has now been held under 20% of the offensive snaps in 7 straight games, and Kansas City is expected to welcome back Isiah Pacheco this week. It’s possible Steele doesn’t lose additional snaps with Pacheco’s return since he offers a different skill set than the other KC backs, but he’s not playable now, and he won’t be playable with Pacheco back.

RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 12: vs. Phi.): Corum was allowed to play for one glorious 2^nd quarter drive last weekend where he rushed for 21 yards on 4 carries and pulled in a 7-yard reception as well, but he spent pretty much the entire rest of the game on the sideline. He had just 1 rush attempt for zero yards outside of that drive. He continues to be nothing more than a change of pace back for Kyren Williams, and the Rams don’t like to change pace a whole lot. Philly allows the 5^th-fewest RB points per game, so I wouldn’t count on a surprising spike game on limited touches here.

RB Isaac Guerendo, SF (Wk. 12: @ GB): Guerendo has played just 5 offensive snaps and touched the ball just once in the two games with Christian McCaffrey back on the field. He’s off the fantasy radar until there’s another injury in this backfield.

RB Kimani Vidal, LAC (Wk. 12: vs. Bal.): Vidal has now been a healthy scratch in two straight games with Gus Edwards back. He’s not on the fantasy radar in non-dynasty formats.

WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 12: @ Mia.): The Patriots got Kendrick Bourne back into the mix in week 11 and Polk operated as the team’s WR5. He was in a route on nearly a third of the team dropbacks but wasn’t targeted. He’s now earned just 2 targets in the last 3 games. You can’t have any confidence in plugging him into lineups.

WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 12: vs. Det.): Mitchell was under a 20% route participation rate for the 2^nd time in the last 3 weeks last weekend (also for just the 2^nd time in the last 8 games), and he turned that limited playing time into 1-33 on two targets. He was tripped up a yard short of a touchdown on that one catch. He hasn’t caught more than 2 passes in any game Anthony Richardson has started this season, and is a distant WR4 on the depth chart at the moment. Detroit allows the 7^th-most WR points per game, but Mitchell isn’t going to be the receiver to take advantage of that matchup.

WR Malik Washington, MIA (Wk. 12: vs. NE): Washington was in a route on 37% of Miami’s dropbacks in week 11, his 2^nd highest route participation rate of the season, and equal with Odell Beckham Jr.’s rate for the week as well, but he finished with just 18 yards on 4 touches. He’s still too deep down the pecking order in this offense to be considered for fantasy lineups.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Dal.): McCaffrey was in a route on just 31% of the team passing dropbacks last week against the Eagles. It was his lowest route participation rate of the season. He hasn’t played more than 50% of the snaps in any game since week 5, and he’s totaled just 2 catches in his last 5 games.

WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 12: vs. Phi.): Whittington has run just one route in the last two weeks since returning from injury. He’s being used almost exclusively on special teams at this point.

TE Cade Stover, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): Stover remains at least modestly involved in the offense – he logged right around a 30% route participation rate in week 11, even with Nico Collins back – but he’s still yet to reach 3 targets or 4 PPR points in any game this season. He remains a Dalton Schultz injury away from relevance.

TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Dal.): Sinnott remains the TE3 in Washington. He ran just a handful of targetless routes in week 11 while John Bates was targeted 3 times against Philly. Sinnott was the second TE off the board in the draft in April, but he continues to be a non-factor as a rookie.

Rookies on Byes in week 12: RB Ray Davis, BUF, RB Braelon Allen, WR Keon Coleman, BUF, WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX, WR Mason Tipton, NO, WR Jermaine Burton, CIN, WR Malachi Corley, NYJ

Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:

RB Dylan Laube, LV (Wk. 12: vs. Den.): Laube has spent his rookie season mostly languishing as a healthy scratch on game days. He’s been active just 3 times this season, and played only one offensive snap in those 3 games – a snap where he fumbled the ball away. He may finally get his second touch of the season this week with Zamir White and Alexander Mattison both battling injuries. Both players missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Ameer Abdullah has been the 3^rd RB for much of the season, and will undoubtedly see an expanded role if both players are out, but there really aren’t any Vegas running backs left who are built to run between the tackles. Between Abdullah, Laube, and the team’s two practice squad RBs (newly signed Chris Collier and rookie Sincere McCormick), Vegas has 4 backs who all weigh 210 pounds or less. Because of that, I don’t expect either practice squad player to leapfrog Laube into a big role. I think we’re going to see Abdullah play something like two-thirds of the snaps, and Laube fill in the rest of the time. The Broncos rank 3^rd in run defense DVOA, but they do allow the 4^th-most RB receptions and 5^th-most RB receiving yards per game, so that’s the place the Raiders backs should be able to do damage, and both Abdullah and Laube are capable in that area. I’m not sure I’d want to count on more than 5-6 PPR points out of Laube this week, but if White and Mattison both miss this game, he’s likely to be at least modestly involved. He’s still just a desperation option in deep PPR leagues this week.

RB Jonathan Brooks, CAR (Wk. 12: vs. KC): I mention Brooks here more as a stash for future weeks than as a guy to plug in for week 12. Brooks is expected to finally be activated this week and see his first NFL action, but he enters a backfield that has largely been dominated by Chuba Hubbard, so he’ll be fighting for RB2 work alongside Miles Sanders. There is a sliver of hope for Brooks this week as the Panthers figure to play from behind as 10.5-point underdogs, and Brooks’ clearest path to playing time is in the passing game. For the season, Chuba Hubbard has played 72% of the offensive snaps, but he’s played just 34% of the long down & distance snaps and has ceded much of that work to Sanders. If Brooks can take over that Sanders role, he could have some receiving upside in a game where the Panthers should be forced to throw a lot. It’s worth nothing though, that the Chiefs have allowed the 12^th-fewest RB receptions and 6^th-fewest RB receiving yards this year. Brooks is only worth a look out of desperation, but better weeks could be ahead with Tampa in week 13 and Dallas in week 15.

WR Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 12: @ LV): Vele has finished as a WR3 or better in back-to-back games and seems to have established himself as Denver’s clear WR2. The potential return of Josh Reynolds this week could throw a wrench into things, but Vele again feels like a reasonable WR3/4 option in PPR leagues against a Vegas team that ranks 26^th in pass defense DVOA and has been more vulnerable in the slot than on the perimeter. Slot corner Nate Hobbs has allowed the most fantasy points per route run into his coverage among the Raiders’ starting corners, and that’s who Vele should face most often. There’s always risk in trusting a Sean Payton skill player that isn’t named Courtland Sutton, but Vele has shown a nice floor in recent performances.

WR Jalen Coker, CAR (Wk. 12: vs. KC): Coker’s outlook this week is really going to depend on how Adam Thielen is used upon his return. Thielen is expected to be active this week, and in his tenure with the Panthers he’s been used primarily as a slot receiver…the same role that Jalen Coker has been playing for the last couple months. Per Mike Clay from ESPN, the Chiefs allow the 2^nd-most fantasy points to receivers lined up in the slot, but the 3^rd-fewest to receivers on the perimeter, so it’s kind of a big deal which guy will play in the slot. If Thielen is held out for another week, then we know Coker has sneaky WR3 upside in this matchup as the primary slot guy. If Thielen returns, pay close attention to the reporting on how these players will be used. I find it hard to believe that David Moore will remain a starter in 3-wide sets with Thielen back, which means one of Thielen or Coker will be lined up on the outside. The one who stays in the slot has a chance at a strong fantasy performance.

WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 12: @ NYG): McMillian has been kind of a forgotten man in Tampa since he’s been sidelined and hasn’t played since week 8, and now his return to the lineup will be overshadowed by Mike Evans returning the same week. With that said, I expect McMillan to play a full-time role this week and push Ryan Miller and Rakim Jarrett back to the bench. Mike Evans will undoubtedly be the WR1 this week, but the Bucs are a pass-first team, and the Giants rank 24^th in pass defense DVOA. McMillan still hasn’t caught for more than 35 yards in a game this season, so the ceiling probably isn’t huge here, but in a week with so many byes, McMillan has some appeal if you’re desperate for a fill-in WR. I’d expect Evans to get some extra defensive attention, which could open up opportunities for splash plays for McMillan, who has a 14-yard aDOT for the season.

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 12: vs. KC): You might not realize it, but Ja’Tavion has finished as a top-15 PPR tight end in 4 of his last 5 games and has become an integral part of the Panthers’ passing attack, and this week he faces a Kansas City defense that has allowed the 5^th-most TE points per game. I wouldn’t bump Sanders up to a top-12 play this week, but he’s certainly a serviceable option if your seeking a spot-starter this week because your tight end is on a bye. It’s worth noting that Tommy Tremble is off the injury report this week and is expected to return, and the Panthers have stubbornly treated Tremble as the starter when he’s been healthy. I’d like to believe that Sanders has shown enough over the last month that he should remain the full-time tight end with Tremble back, but we’ve seen Sanders play second-fiddle to Tremble as recently as week 8. Keep an eye on team reports this week to see if the team hints at Sanders being ‘the guy’ at tight end moving forward.

TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 12: vs. TB): Just like Sanders above, Johnson gets a favorable matchup this week that makes him worth considering if you need a fill-in TE streamer. It’s hard to say with certainty how the switch to Tommy DeVito will impact Theo, but DeVito targeted tight ends on 17.3% of his throws last year, and much of that was with rookie Daniel Bellinger as his starting tight end, so I think similar usage to what we’ve seen with Daniel Jones is a reasonable expectation for the new rookie. Johnson has reached at least 3 catches and 30 receiving yards in each of the last 3 games and 4 of his last 5, and Tampa allows the 4^th-most tight end points per game. The passing game will still run through Malik Nabers, but Johnson should see at least a few targets come his way as well. Starting Theo probably shouldn’t be the goal this week, but if you’re struggling to find a spot starter, he probably won’t kill you.

TE Brevyn Spann-Ford, DAL (Wk. 12: @ Was.): Jake Ferguson left Monday night’s game early with a concussion, and it seems unlikely he’ll get cleared in time to play this weekend. Luke Schoonmaker is the TE2 in Dallas, but both Schoonmaker and Spann-Ford were heavily involved after the injury. Brevyn finished with just a 39% route participation rate, but he hauled in 4 passes for 42 yards on 5 targets as Cooper Rush threw the ball an absurd 55 times. The passing volume should be high again this week as Dallas is a 10.5-point underdog in DC. Washington allows the 15^th-fewest TE points per game, so this is a middling matchup for tight ends. I wouldn’t consider Spann-Ford as a TE1, but if you’re in a pickle for a bye week fill-in for a TE2 or flex spot in TE premium formats, there is some upside here for a player who is rostered in just 2% of dynasty leagues on Sleeper. He’s more likely to be available on the wire in the deepest leagues than Ja’Tavion or Theo.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter/X (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.