WEEK 13 STARTS
A.J. Dillon (RB-GB) @ CHI
After a very middling season so far, Dillon last week put up 16 fantasy points including his first TD since week 1. Averaging 12 touches per game, Dillon always has an opportunity to excel but the Packers have not been playing well in general this season until the emergence of Christian Watson in Week 10. Having a wide receiver like Watson attracting defensive attention away from the line of scrimmage should be a plus for Dillon in the passing game.
A caveat here, if you watched the game last week we saw Dillon move to the sideline in the 4th quarter with what looked like a minor foot/ankle injury. He did practice today and was marked as limited with a quad but it doesn’t seem like that is a serious injury or will keep him out of the lineup against the Bears. A lot of people are down on Dillon so far this season and deservedly so, since he has only scored enough fantasy points to be RB34 on the year and had a preseason ADP of RB24.
All that said, Chicago’s defense has looked very fragile since trading some key components and suffering a ton of injuries over the past few weeks on both sides of the ball. In last week’s game, for example, the Bears had five total players leave the game due to injury including safeties Eddie Jackson and Dane Cruikshank, and other members of the secondary are still going through concussion protocol from previous weeks. After letting Mike White and rookie UDFA Zonovan Knight light up the stadium, I would toss some bets in the direction of any/all reasonably able-bodied offensive players on the Packers that are in line for opportunities to score fantasy points.
The Bears have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing RBs so far this season and that’s a stat that has increased over the last few weeks. I find it very easy to believe that Dillon has another one of his best games of the season this week, which equates to ~15 fantasy points and should make him a solid RB2 in this matchup. And yes, I know that Aaron Rodgers has both a thumb fracture and a rib issue, but if he plays injured (or doesn’t play at all) that may actually end up helping Dillon and the Packers’ rushing game in general, as they would likely lean even more on that part of the offense.
Kyren Williams (RB-LAR) vs SEA
Williams was the Rams’ 5th round pick in this year’s draft. He hadn’t seen the field very much up until last week. He had 14 touches against KC in a game that the Rams were never really in. The 14 touches doubled his season total - he’d only appeared in two previous games. What I do like to see is that in Week 12, Williams was on the field for 70% of the offense’s snaps. He was targeted in the passing game 3 times, reeling in all 3 catches.
Now, I’m not necessarily saying that he’s going to be a start over some studs or some no-brainers, but if you’re stuck with bye weeks or you’re struggling to fill your lineup in the race to making the playoffs, Williams is a great fill-in for a missing RB2 or a flex spot. Williams is rostered in 43% of Fleaflicker leagues, and he has a great matchup against the Seahawks, who are giving up the 3rd most points to opposing RBs. Last week they got beat up by Josh Jacobs to the tune of 45 points, but they’ve also given up 4 other 20+ point performances, and double digit points to 11 different players. That’s an average of one per week!
If Williams is going to see usage like he did in Week 12, then I think that he will turn into a serviceable back. He’s going to have matchups for the rest of the year against teams giving up top-10 points to opposing RBs, so you could do a lot worse than Williams, especially if all you need is depth on your team. I’m also going to put my money where my mouth is - I’ll start Kyren Williams (RB35) over Latavius Murray (RB23) in a league where I’m in the playoff hunt. Obviously, it’s one where I’m already hurting at the position.
Skyy Moore (WR-KC) @ CIN
Every year there are a few rookie wideouts that have the talent and opportunity to excel from the very beginning of the season. This year those players are Chris Olave (WR14, 128.2 points), Garrett Wilson (WR23, 111.7 points), George Pickens (WR38, 91.4 points), Christian Watson (WR40, 90.5 points), and Drake London (WR42, 88.3 points).
And, I mean, that’s great for those guys and their teams, but most receivers achieve success and have breakout games later in the season or even in their 2nd or 3rd years. Talking about Skyy Moore (WR122, 23 points), he has been sprinkled in but not heavily involved in the offense so far this season, seeing only 14 targets through week 10. But when we look at the last couple of games, we are likely seeing a shift in his usage due to injuries and depth chart changes.
In both weeks 11 and 12, Moore saw 6 targets and logged 5 receptions in each game. That’s more catches (10) in two games than he had over the rest of the season (7). He played in 42% of snaps in week 11 and 46% in week 12, and is building chemistry and trust with QB Patrick Mahomes. I’m not suggesting that Moore be inserted as a WR1 or 2 this week, but I think he’s a valid flex play for PPR leagues and should be picked up from waivers with the anticipation of a possible breakout game to occur over the next few weeks.
Zay Jones (WR-JAX) @ DET
Zay Jones was one of the key players in the Jaguars win over Baltimore last week, and he gets another fantastic matchup this week against the Lions. Jones is trending up over the last 4 weeks, improving in fantasy points, targets, receptions, and yardage. He’s clearly becoming a key part of the Jaguars offense and is someone that Trevor Lawrence looks to when the game is on the line. He had 5 receptions in the 4th quarter in week 12. Jones is going to be the ever-important complement to Christian Kirk. Traditionally, the second WR in lots of robust offensive systems can do very well in fantasy football. The Jaguars have the 9th most yards gained on offense in the league.
Jones gets the Lions in week 13, a team giving up the 4th most points to opposing WRs. They have given up an astonishing 17 double-digit point performances on the season, in only 11 games. There’s tons of room for the Jaguars to move the ball through the air in Detroit, and it’s coming at a time when Trevor Lawrence is throwing the ball very well. He has 6 TDs in the last 3 weeks with no interceptions. He’s completing almost 77% of his passes over that stretch. The Jaguars have defined themselves as a passing team now - they pass the ball 56.7% of the time, compared to running it 43.5% of the time. They’re right in the middle of that split, which is a great place to be, as we’ve discussed in previous weeks.
WEEK 13 SITS
Mike White (QB-NYJ) @ MIN
Has the whole world gone crazy? I guess I’m the only person not aboard the Mike White hype train, which is headed straight into a brick wall. I suggest you disembark as well, before the impending crash impacts your team’s fantasy playoff aspirations or affects your seeding to make you miss a bye week, etc. As I mentioned earlier when talking about A.J. Dillon’s chances of making a positive contribution to fantasy squads, the Chicago Bears defense was very diminished to start last week’s game against the Jets and they went on to lose even more integral parts of their secondary throughout the match. White’s success has as much to do with that as anything else.
This is the same guy that put up great numbers against Cincinnati last year in week 8 (405 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs), and then followed that up with 2 clunkers against the Colts and Bills over which he racked up 1 TD and 4 INTs total. In fact, people were chanting “Mike White” last November too… apparently we all ate and drank too much over the holidays and completely forgot that this had all happened before.
The Vikings are a far better team than the Chicago Bears right now. Don’t make the mistake of chasing points in this situation. On the flip side, it is very apparent that the Vikings employ a ‘bend but don’t break’ philosophy for their secondary and that has resulted in among the most passing yards allowed across the league this year. It’s my opinion, though, that the tape they will be able to study and plan for from last week and the propensity of Mike White to throw a few wild, ‘interceptable’ balls should result in enough to make this ‘possible league-winner’ (language I’ve seen on more than a few websites this week) fall to low-end QB2 territory. I have him as the QB18 right now but I guarantee you that his ranking will be inching up closer to QB10 over the course of the week. Ignore it.
Kirk Cousins (QB-MIN) vs NYJ
Kirk had a big week last week, and I did shout him out in my column. It was not exactly expected, considering his history in prime time games. Well, that was way back on Monday and, after a few days, I feel the need to double down on my naysaying of Kirk Cousins.
Cousins faces the Jets this week, who are giving up the 8th fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs. The Jets have only given up good games to top-5 QBs (Allen, Burrow, Jackson). Cousins is not near their tier, he’s only the QB13 on the season. The Jets aren’t exactly giving up lots of fantasy points to any position, so there’s no real avenue for Kirk to leech fantasy points through another player.
Cousins has had up and down scoring all season. He has not been able to score 18+ points in a game and follow it up with a similar performance the next week. Last year, the same trend was true after week 3 of the season.
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