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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Three weeks of the NFL season are now in the books, and the fantasy landscape is starting to really take shape. It was a messy week 3 for most members of the rookie crop not named Najee Harris or Ja’Marr Chase, but that doesn’t mean we can’t learn from it. Week 3 may have been the worst week we’ve seen from a rookie QB class in all the time I’ve been writing this column. Davis Mills had the most efficient week of any of the rookie starting QBs as he completed 68% of his passes and threw a TD with no turnovers. The four 1^st-round QBs who started combined to go 77-for-140 (55% complete) for 717 yards (5.1 yards per attempt), 3 touchdowns, and 9 turnovers. They also were collectively sacked 19 times. The true standouts in futility were Justin Fields (30% complete, 9 sacks taken) and Trevor Lawrence (4 turnovers). Things should get better for those guys going forward, but there is still a learning curve ahead. Week 3 also saw poor fantasy performances from Kyle Pitts, Rondale Moore, and Trey Sermon, but Javonte Williams managed to break through and score his first TD as a pro. With all of that said, I’m not here to live in the past. I’m here to talk about what to expect in week 4.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 4…

Rookies to Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 4: @GB): Najee did something in week 3 that has been accomplished by only 1 other running back in the last 3 decades. He was targeted an astonishing NINETEEN times, hauling in 14 of them for 102 receiving yards en route to an RB5 finish for the week. Only Alvin Kamara has been targeted that many times in a game since targets have been tracked (since 1992). There were a couple factors that contributed to the huge total. Diontae Johnson, who usually vacuums up a large number of short targets, was sidelined, and JuJu Smith-Schuster left with injury during the game. They also were behind by multiple scores for most of the game and had to keep throwing. With Diontae practicing in a limited capacity Wednesday, he seems on track to play this week. That should make it tough for Harris to approach that number again, but it’s good to see how much they trust him in the passing game. Najee’s rushing efficiency still leaves something to be desired behind this offensive line, but he’s played 95% of the offensive snaps or more in each game. This week he gets to face the Packers, who rank 25^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and have allowed 6 running back receptions per game. Another top-5 finish is far from assured, but you can feel comfortable firing up Harris as an RB1 in all formats.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 4: vs. Jax.): With his two touchdown grabs last weekend, Ja’Marr Chase became the first 21-year-old rookie to ever catch for 4 touchdowns in his first 3 games (breaking Randy Moss’s previous record of 3 scores). Chase has now caught at least 1 touchdown in 15 of the last 18 games the pair has played together. His connection with Joe Burrow has clearly picked up right where it left off when they were teammates at LSU. There are some warning signs to beware of with Chase, though. The Bengals are playing at the 2^nd-slowest pace in the league in neutral game scripts (3^rd-slowest pace overall), and they’re running the ball a LOT. Cincy has gone to the air on just 34.4% of their offensive plays when they’re leading on the scoreboard. Those factors have led to the Bengals averaging just 25 pass attempts per game through the first 3 weeks. They figure to be leading a lot again Thursday as a touchdown favorite against the hapless Jaguars. Chase has shown through the first 3 weeks that he doesn’t need a ton of volume to post a big day. He’s averaging nearly 14 yards per target and a touchdown every 4 targets so far. The Jaguars, who rank 30^th in pass defense DVOA, are unlikely to be the team to curtail that efficiency from Chase. With Tee Higgins out again, even a low passing volume game from Burrow should lead to 6 or 7 targets for Ja’Marr, and that should be plenty to be in the WR2/3 range for this week in most formats.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 4: vs. KC): Smith has been largely a letdown if you’ve started him the last couple weeks, but I like this as a spot for him to get right. Through the first 3 weeks, he’s seen 22.3% of the targets and 40.6% of the intended air yards in this passing game. The Chiefs rank dead last in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 8^th-most fantasy points per game to receivers. The targets are going to continue to come DeVonta’s way, and Philly should be forced to throw plenty as a touchdown underdog. Obviously, there is risk here with Smith, but I really like him to have a big day and finish as a WR2 against Kansas City.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 4: vs. Was.): You can’t overreact to one down week for Pitts. His usage levels are still elite. He saw his highest route participation (88%) and snap rate (84%) of the season in week 3. If those things continue, the targets are going to follow. This week he faces a Washington defense that ranks 28^th in pass defense DVOA, and has allowed the 16^th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends while facing a murderer’s row of Jared Cook, Kaden Smith, Kyle Rudolph, and Dawson Knox in the first 3 weeks. If those guys managed to make this look like a middling tight end defense, you shouldn’t be scared to fire up Pitts again. He has a great chance at this being a breakout game, and he could be a bargain in DFS with a price tag of just $5,000 on DraftKings.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 4: vs. Det.): Obviously if you started Fields last week, this isn’t a well you want to dip back into, but it should be a more productive week for Fields this time out if Dalton isn’t cleared to play. Bill Lazor is going to take over the play-calling duties from Matt Nagy this week. Last season, that happened 9 games into the season. In the 9 games Nagy called, the Bears averaged 19.8 points and 302 yards per game. In the 7 that Lazor called, they averaged 27.7 and 349 yards. Fields also gets to face a very bad Detroit defense that ranks 31^st in pass defense DVOA and has given up the 10^th-most QB points per game. The switch to Lazor isn’t going to fix everything that ails the Bears’ offense overnight, but it’s a step in the right direction. If you can stomach starting Justin Fields again this week after what he did last Sunday, he has a great chance at finishing as a top-15 QB against the Lions.

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.): Mitchell is still working through a shoulder injury that kept him out in week 3, and his status is still up in the air for this one. If he’s able to play, the matchup is a juicy one. The 49ers face a Seahawks defense that has been struggling at all levels. Seattle has allowed over 135 rushing yards, over 80 receiving yards, and a whopping 9 receptions to running backs per game. They’ve allowed nearly 4 more points per game to the position than the team allowing the 2^nd-most RB points (Miami). To be fair to the Seahawks, Derrick Henry did a big chunk of the damage that’s been done against them, but they’ve struggled to slow down Nyheim Hines and Alexander Mattison as well. We know the 49ers want to run the ball. If Mitchell starts, don’t look for him to hit those stats the Seahawks are allowing on his own, but he’s got obvious top-15 upside in a great matchup.

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 4: @Dal.): Hubbard has been THE guy to target on the waiver wire this week after Christian McCaffrey suffered a hamstring strain that will likely keep him out for a couple games. There’s a chance Chuba shares this backfield with Royce Freeman, but if his usage after McCaffrey went out last week is any indication, Chuba is the player you want here. Hubbard played 73% of the offensive snaps after CMC got hurt and ran a route on 72% of the teams dropbacks. The Cowboys’ run defense has been better this season, ranking 12^th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 7^th-fewest RB points per game, but this is an offense that funnels targets to the running back position. We saw it last season when Mike Davis stepped into a 70-target season in place of McCaffrey last year, and Chuba’s 5 targets in week 3 are evidence that will continue now. If Chuba gets 5+ targets again this week, that receiving production should insulate him against a lackluster rushing output. He should be a high-end RB3 with RB2 upside in Dallas.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 4: vs. Bal.): Javonte found the end zone for the first time in his young career last weekend, but also lost his first fumble. We saw some flashes of his talent, but ultimately until he pulls away from Melvin Gordon, you’ll have to look for favorable matchups to fire him up rather than plugging him in every week. This week isn’t a great one to fire him up. The Ravens have been somewhat vulnerable to running backs, allowing the 7^th-most RB points per game, but a big chunk of that production has been due to rushing touchdowns, which can be a little fluky, and receiving output. Baltimore has given up 5 rushing scores, with 4 of them coming from 2 yards out or closer. The Broncos may not get any chances in that close. Baltimore has also given up 7 receptions and 65 receiving yards per game to opposing backs. Javonte and Gordon have combined for fewer than 5 targets per game so far. The Ravens rank 10^th in run defense DVOA on the year, so it won’t be so easy for Javonte to produce if he doesn’t find the end zone or catch a handful of passes. I’d view him as more of a dicey flex this week.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 4: vs. Ind.): I warned last week that Waddle was getting shorter targets from Jacoby Brissett, and that it would likely take a lot of them for him to post a solid week 3 performance against the Raiders. He got a lot of them. It took 13 targets for Waddle to finish as the PPR WR19 with a 12-58-0 line. In the two games where it has been mostly Brissett at QB, Waddle has averaged fewer than 3 air yards per target. It’s a great sign that he’s been so heavily targeted by Brissett, and that could continue in week 4, but it’s a similar outlook for the rookie. He’s going to need significant volume to return value unless he manages to find the end zone. The Colts have struggled to defense WRs, allowing the 5^th-most points per game to the position, and slot corner Kenny Moore has just a coverage grade of just 42.5 from PFF so far after being one of the better slot corners in the league a year ago. Waddle has WR3 upside in PPR formats this week.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 4: @Cin.): Lawrence has shown some good through the first 3 weeks of the season, and a lot of bad. The top pick in the 2021 NFL Draft has turned the ball over 9 times in the first 3 games and has only managed to offset those mistakes with positive production once. After finishing as the QB12 in week 1, he’s been outside the top-25 in each of the last two weeks. This week he gets to face a Cincinnati defense that is allowing the 10^th-fewest QB points per game and ranks 8^th in pass defense DVOA. It’s a good sign that he’s been using his legs more in recent weeks, but this isn’t a spot to roll him out unless you’re desperate in a 2-QB league. The Bengals’ defense is a good week 4 streaming option.

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 4: vs. Ten.): On paper, it looks like Wilson gets a softer matchup than he’s faced the last two weeks, but those ‘on paper’ numbers can be deceiving. The Titans have allowed the 12^th-most QB points per game and rank 22^nd in pass defense DVOA, but they were shredded by two of the game’s best quarterbacks in the first two weeks (Kyler Murray & Russell Wilson). They were much better defensively in week 3 as they held Carson Wentz to fewer than 8 fantasy points. I’ve painstakingly documented the Jets’ inability to protect Wilson in the pocket in past Rookie Reports, and Tennessee has the 3^rd-highest pressure rate in the league. Taking heat from the defense is going to be a way of life for Wilson at least until Mekhi Becton returns. Wilson is also likely to be missing #2 receiver Elijah Moore this week. He should be at least a little better than he was the past two weeks, but Wilson isn’t a good option even in two QB leagues right now.

QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 4: @Buf.): Mills held up pretty well against a tough Panthers’ defense on Thursday night, throwing for 168 yards and a touchdown without turning the ball over, but he faces just as stiff a test this week against Buffalo. The Bills have allowed the 5^th-fewest QB points per game and rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA through 3 weeks. It feels sort of unfair to have a rookie make his first two starts against the defenses that rank 1^st (Carolina) and 2^nd (Buffalo) in pass defense DVOA, but Mills will have to make do. Mills’ performance last week landed him a QB27 finish, and you’d be hard-pressed to expect much more from him this week. He shouldn’t be near your lineups.

QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.): It’s the same story again with Lance this week. If he isn’t starting, the best you could hope for is a couple red zone scores in a game playing in a sub package. He’s got a zero-point floor and a 12-point ceiling unless he’s thrust into more action than we’ve seen. That’s not enough to sniff the QB2 range, even against a shreddable defense like Seattle’s.

RB Larry Rountree, LAC (Wk. 4: vs. LV): Through the first 3 weeks Rountree is averaging about 14 snaps and 5 touches per game, and the Raiders rank 9^th in run defense DVOA so far. There’s no reason to consider the rookie in any upcoming weeks unless his role grows, or something happens to Austin Ekeler.

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 4: @Min.): I mentioned Felton last week as a guy to monitor in case he managed to steal some slot work from Rashard Higgins with Jarvis Landry out. I just wanted to update that and let you know that he didn’t. Felton played just 11 snaps to 40 for Higgins. He did out-target Higgins 3 to 2, but those targets turned into just 2 catches and 13 yards. There isn’t enough of a role for Felton to be worth rostering right now.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 4: vs. Jax.): Evans is slowly getting more involved in the Bengals’ offense in passing situations spelling Joe Mixon, but this is a low-volume offense right now. Evans played just 5 snaps in week 3, but that was good enough for an 11% snap share, and with 2 catches for 26 yards he managed to outscore some committee backs who are rostered in most 12-team leagues (Devin Singletary, Ty Johnson, Latavius Murray, Damien Harris, Ty’Son Williams). Evans should remain on the wire for now, but his usage warrants continued monitoring.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 4: vs. TB): Stevenson has been a healthy scratch in each of the last two games after losing a fumble in week 1, and although you’d have to expect him to suit up this week with James White sidelined for the year, I still wouldn’t expect a big role. Damien Harris will still be the lead rushing back, and it will likely be Brandon Bolden or JJ Taylor picking up the slack that White left behind. Rhamondre might need an injury to Harris to see a real spike in value. Even if he were to get some carries this week, Tampa has allowed the 7^th-fewest running back rushing yards and 9^th-fewest running back fantasy points thus far. It would be tough sledding to produce against this vaunted front.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 4: @LAR): Moore demonstrated last week just how volatile he is for fantasy given his current usage. He’s playing as the Arizona WR4, and that means there will be some floor weeks. Week 3 was one of them. DeAndre Hopkins was battling a rib injury and worked mostly as a decoy, but the Cardinals used more Maxx Williams instead of letting the Hopkins injury open more playing time for Rondale. This week’s matchup is an interesting one. The Rams have one of the best cover corners in the NFL in Jalen Ramsey but have deployed him in the slot 55% of the time despite the Bucs being the only team they’ve faced with a formidable slot receiver. If that trend continues, look for Nuk Hopkins to be heavily targeted in this one, and Rondale to be competing with AJ Green and Christian Kirk for any leftover targets. Hopkins has just a 17% target share so far, but I expect this to be the week where that number goes back up. I’d be hesitant to start Moore as anything more than a boom-or-bust WR4.

WR Terrace Marshall, CAR (Wk. 4: @Dal.): With Christian McCaffrey sidelined this week, there may be a little more passing volume that usually goes to CMC that could be re-distributed to the WRs, but if Marshall doesn’t start to see some targets further downfield, it’s hard to see him being very useful in your fantasy lineup. Marshall has an aDOT of just 6 yards and is playing fewer snaps and running fewer routes than teammate Robby Anderson despite being targeted more often. I’d expect the target pendulum to swing back toward Robby some weeks, and it’ll be hard to rely on Marshall as more than a WR4 option in deeper leagues.

WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 4: @Atl.): Brown has been a big disappointment so far this season, posting negative scrimmage yards in two of Washington’s first 3 games. He was targeted just twice last week in a game where Washington threw only 24 times despite losing by more than 20 points. This team does not want to let Taylor Heinicke throw the ball unless they must, and he hasn’t been willing to push the ball downfield where Dyami thrives. Heinicke averages just 7.3 intended air yards per attempt. I would’ve had a little bit of hope for Dyami this week if it looked like AJ Terrell was going to be out again, but he’s practicing in full as of Wednesday (though still in the concussion protocol). The two starting corners with him out (TJ Green and Fabian Moreau) have each allowed a passer rating above 130 on throws into the coverage, and the Falcons have allowed 10 completions of 20+ yards in the first 3 weeks. If Terrell is back, that’s who Brown should square off with most often, and Terrell has allowed just 3.3 yards per target and a 43.8 passer rating into his coverage. I’d have some interest in Dyami as a cheap dart throw in DFS tournaments if Terrell doesn’t clear the protocol, but otherwise this is a player I’d be avoiding this week.

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 4: @NO): Toney may see a spike in opportunity this week with both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton appearing to be on the wrong side of questionable, but it’s a trap. He was on the field for 66% of the offensive snaps in week 3, and managed just 3 targets, 2 catches, and 16 yards. He is the only WR or TE in the league with a negative average target depth so far this season. Those aren’t the kind of targets that are going to return fantasy value even if he sees a few extra this week. The Saints rank 6^th in pass defense DVOA and slot corner Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is allowing just 5 yards per target on throws into his coverage.

WR Dee Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 4: @SF): Eskridge is likely to get cleared from the concussion protocol and return this week, but there really aren’t any formats where you can feel comfortable firing him up in fantasy. He ran behind Freddy Swain on the depth chart in week 1, and the Seahawks’ top WRs should be able to have their way against a depleted 49ers secondary that likely will be without Josh Norman this week. If you’re playing the showdown slate for this game, Eskridge does have some appeal with just a $200 price tag on DraftKings. The team did make an effort to get the ball in his hands in week 1, he’s got the wheels to be a home run threat, and Gerald Everett may miss this game and open up some opportunity for the other ancillary players in the offense. The 49ers rank a middling 16^th in pass defense DVOA, but have been losing DBs each week to injury.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 4: @Chi.): St. Brown was already seeing very limited production in the first two weeks while he was playing about 60% of the snaps. That snap share dropped to just over 40% in week 3, and his production dropped to 1 catch for 2 yards on 1 target. He has a chance to see a handful of targets when the Lions play from behind, but he isn’t going to be as involved in closer games, and the Lions are just a 3-point underdog this week on the road in Chicago. Kalif Raymond and Quintez Cephus both appear to be ahead of him in the WR pecking order.

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 4: vs. Ten.): In case you weren’t aware of it, Moore suffered a concussion against the Broncos last weekend and looks likely to miss this game. There is a chance that he has some sneaky upside if he’s able to get cleared. The Titans allow the 3^rd-most WR points per game so far and Moore was targeted 6 times in the first 3 quarters last week before getting hurt. With that said, this Jets’ passing game isn’t one I want to put any faith in when it comes to fantasy outside of maybe Corey Davis.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 4: @GB): Freiermuth made good on my claim that he had sneaky upside last week by turning 5 targets into 3 catches for 22 yards and a touchdown, good for a TE12 finish. The downside is that he played his lowest snap share of the season, and it looks like target hog Diontae Johnson has a good chance of returning to the lineup this week. Green Bay looks like a soft matchup for tight ends, allowing the 3^rd-most TE points per game so far, but they’ve already faced two of the game’s bests at the position in TJ Hockenson and George Kittle. They did also allow 2 scores to Juwan Johnson in the opener, so there is hope for Freiermuth, but I wouldn’t bank on a repeat performance if Diontae returns and the rookie continues to play behind Eric Ebron this week. Diontae and Najee Harris will see most of the shorter targets that could go Freiermuth’s way.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 4: vs. TB): The Saints made Jones look bad last week, but he can’t dwell on that performance with Tom Brady and the Bucs coming to town on Sunday night. The Bucs are favored by 6.5 points in this one, and they’ve got one of the stoutest defensive fronts in the NFL. I don’t expect Damien Harris to have much success on the ground, and that means Jones may have to throw a bit more than usual. The Bucs have already allowed 300+ passing yards and multiple scores in each of their first 3 games this season. I don’t think Jones is going to throw for 300, but I like his chances of padding his stats in garbage time and posting his best fantasy game of the season. He has some sneaky upside for 2-QB formats this week.

RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.): If Elijah Mitchell ends up being active for this week, disregard Sermon being listed here and feel free to ignore him this week. If Mitchell is out, however, don’t let last week’s usage and performance scare you off Sermon. Yes, it’s true that Sermon was out-snapped and out-produced by fullback Kyle Juszczyk on Sunday night. It’s also true that Juszczyk was healthy throughout the week of practice while the gameplan was installed for the week, and Sermon was in the concussion protocol. I’d expect Sermon to be much more involved in this game than he was last week if Mitchell can’t go. You can see what kind of matchup this is in the bit I wrote about Mitchell above. If the starting role is Sermon’s, he has RB2 upside for the week.  

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 4: vs. KC): As we saw last week, Gainwell is going to have a role in the Eagles’ hurry-up offense, which we will likely see more of in the 2^nd half this week. The Chiefs are more than a touchdown favorite but have struggled across the board defensively in the first 3 weeks. They’ve allowed the 3^rd-most RB points per game so far and rank dead last in run defense DVOA. I think Miles Sanders has a great chance at a strong game as well, but Gainwell has some upside in deep leagues in this matchup.

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 4: vs. Ten.): The best way the Jets are going to be able to keep pressure off Zach Wilson in this game is going to be to run the ball effectively. Carter handled 75% of the Jets’ running back rush attempts last week, and I’d look for them to make more of an effort to establish the run this week against a defense that ranks 29^th in run defense DVOA thus far. Carter also has receiving skills that should pad his numbers a bit, but he has a shot at posting a top-30 week if the Jets can keep from being blown out early.

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 4: @Den.): Bateman was activated off injured reserve this week, but he doesn’t get a soft landing in his debut. If Bateman manages to suit up this weekend, he’ll face off with a Denver defense that ranks 5^th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 10^th-fewest WR points per game. I mention him as a player to stash this week if he hasn’t already been snatched up by someone else in your league. The Ravens have been throwing the ball at a higher rate than they have in the last couple seasons, and that could continue thanks to their makeshift backfield. Marquise Brown has been getting open effectively this year, but a few bad drops last week nearly cost the team the game. There is an opening for Bateman to work his way into the WR1 role in this offense before the season’s end. You can’t start him this week but make room for Bateman on your bench if he’s available.

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 4: @Dal.): The Panthers traded away Dan Arnold this week, opening the door for Tremble to take on a more significant role in the offense. Ian Thomas has been the Panther TE that’s been on the field the most, but it’s Arnold who has seen two-thirds of the team TE targets come his way. That’s amounted to just 10 targets in 3 games, but Tremble should step into that role and have some TD dart throw appeal in DFS tournaments. He’s worth a stash in deeper TE-premium formats.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! The first two weeks of the NFL season have been anything but predictable, but hopefully you were able to navigate the craziness and get a win or two in the process. Some of this year’s rookies had wild swings from week 1 to week 2. Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson both put up strong performances in their debuts and crashed back to earth in week 2. DeVonta Smith followed up a PPR WR19 finish in week 1 by finishing as the WR81 in week 2. Najee Harris had a big bounce back performance in week 2 as he finished as the RB8 and Rondale Moore built on his solid debut with a monster game as well. We also saw more modest bounce backs from Javonte Williams, Elijah Moore, Kyle Pitts and Dyami Brown. What does this all mean for week 3? That’s what we’re here to discuss. 

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 3…

Rookies to Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 3: vs. Cin.): Najee had the bounce-back game we hoped for in week 2, finishing the week as the PPR RB7 with 19.1 points. He continued to dominate the backfield playing time, seeing the field on 95% of the offensive snaps. That usage isn’t going anywhere. The Bengals are actually a tough RB matchup. They’ve allowed just 65 running back rushing yards per game and rank 2nd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, but they’ve also allowed 8 running back receptions per game. Harris hauled in 5 passes last week and should be in line for a nice receiving workload again with Diontae Johnson potentially sidelined. He’s a locked-in RB1 this week in PPR formats, and a solid RB2 in half- and non-PPR. 

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 3: @NYG): Pitts saw his share of the targets and air yards come down in week 2 against the Bucs but saw his fantasy production go up as he finished with 5 catches for 73 yards on 6 targets. These are the kinds of performances that can help Pitts cash in on the draft capital you spent on him, but he’ll need to find the end zone along the way as well. This week’s matchup with the Giants is a favorable one. New York has allowed the 4th-most TE points per game so far, but they’ve had a weird trend in their first two contests. In both games, the starting tight end hauled in at least 5 receptions and 45 yards, but in each game, it was the backup TE that found the end zone. If that trend holds, Hayden Hurst may be a nice play in limited slate DFS lineups. I’d still look for Pitts to be in the 6-7 target range, and likely finish as a top-10 TE on the week again. He should be started if you have him. 

Borderline Rookies: 

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 3: @Cle.): An injury to Andy Dalton opens the door for Fields to make his first NFL start this Sunday, and he gets what should be a favorable matchup against the Browns. The Browns allowed the 7th-most QB points per game in 2020 and have picked up where they left off this season. It’s excusable to have issues slowing down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Tyrod Taylor, Davis Mills and the Texans, however? That’s another story. The Texans’ QBs combined for 23 and a half fantasy points last weekend, which would’ve been good enough for the QB9 for the week if they were one player. Fields flashed some of his playmaking abilities against the Bengals but failed to find the end zone. I’d expect that to change. It was promising to see the Bears call 3 designed runs for Fields. He also took off on 4 scrambles and finished with 31 rushing yards after 3 kneel downs to end the game. That rushing upside is a big part of why he’s a strong option this week. The Browns allowed the 4th-most QB rushing yards per game a season ago and have given up a QB rushing score each week this season. Fields has the weapons and matchup to post a strong starting debut. I wouldn’t start him over any of the proven stud QBs, but he’s in play as a high-risk/high-reward fringe QB1 in 12-team leagues. 

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 3: vs. Ari.): Lawrence has proven to be a volatile option in the first two weeks of the season, but he’s been aggressive to a fault. Only Derek Carr has thrown for more intended air yards through the first two weeks than Trevor. The Jaguars’ offensive line has done a nice job keeping him upright, allowing the 8th-lowest pressure rate in the league. The rookie just needs to be willing to take what the defense gives him more often instead of forcing it downfield. Jacksonville is a touchdown underdog this week, so there should be plenty of passing volume again, and that willingness to sling it downfield gives Lawrence big upside. Arizona ranks 8th in pass defense DVOA for the year but allowed Kirk Cousins to finish as the QB6 in week 2. There is plenty of risk here, but T-Law’s upside has him in play as a QB2 this week for me.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 3: vs. NYJ): Williams has been one of my favorite candidates to break out for a couple weeks now, and so far, it hasn’t quite happened for him. I’m going to scale back the excitement this week after Melvin Gordon played a bigger share of the snaps than Williams last Sunday, but I still think this is a nice spot for Williams to have a strong game. Javonte ranks 2nd in the NFL at forced missed tackles per carry (behind only Nick Chubb), and even though he played fewer snaps than Gordon last week they each handled the same number of carries. The Jets rank just 26th in run defense DVOA through two weeks and the Broncos are favored by double-digits. There should be plenty of rushing volume for Denver. I expect Javonte to clear 70 scrimmage yards in this game, and he has a great chance to score his first career TD. If he gets in the end zone, he’ll likely finish as an RB2 or better. 

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 3: vs.GB): Mitchell suffered a shoulder injury late last weekend and is listed as questionable, but he’s likely to be the lead back again for the 49ers if he’s able to play. He seems to be much more likely to suit up than fellow rookie Trey Sermon, and it’ll be a messy backfield situation if neither is able to play. Mitchell had an inefficient day against the Eagles last week but should find the sledding easier against Green Bay. The Packers have been a lackluster run defense so far, ranking 25th in run defense DVOA. Mitchell’s lack of receiving upside puts a cap on expectations here, but he should be a solid RB3 option if he is in fact able to play this week. Keep an eye on the injury updates with this one. 

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 3: @Pit.): Chase found the end zone for the second game in a row last Sunday, but as expected his target volume dropped off as Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins had easier individual matchups. Chase leads the team in routes run for the season, but there will be ebbs & flows in this WR group since Chase has two very capable teammates. Ja’Marr again gets the toughest individual matchup of the Bengals’ receivers this week against Cameron Sutton, but Sutton has been far from dominant. He’s allowed just 7 yards per target into his coverage, but also a 77% completion percentage and 121 passer rating on those throws. My bigger concern for Chase is if the Bengals’ o-line will give Burrow enough time for Chase’s deeper routes to develop. Chase has an average target depth of 17.9 yards for the season. The Steelers have the 3rd-highest QB pressure rate so far and the Bengals have allowed QB pressure at the 5th-highest rate. It only takes one or two deep balls to connect for Chase to have a boom week. I’d view him as an upside WR3 option this week but keep an eye on the status of Tee Higgins. Higgins didn’t practice on Thursday. Chase will have a much safer floor if Higgins winds up sidelined. 

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 3: @Dal.): Smith’s week 2 stat line was a painful one if he was in your lineups. The rookie tallied just 2 receptions for 16 yards to follow up on a splashy debut in week 1. Don’t get too discouraged. The passing game continued to run through Smith. 30% of the team passing targets and 46% of the intended air yards went in DeVonta’s direction on Sunday. It’s frustrating that those targets didn’t connect, but Smith is going to have a big weekly ceiling. In week 3 in Dallas, Smith will match up mostly with Cowboys’ top corner Trevon Diggs. Diggs has been excellent through 2 weeks, allowing just a 35.8 passer rating and 7.6 yards per target on throws into his coverage. It’s that matchup that prevents me from making Smith a full-blown start this week. I’d view him as more of a WR4 or flex play. The volume will be there again. 

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 3: @Jax.): Moore has been the hottest name on the waiver wire this week after scoring a long scramble drill TD against Minnesota. He’s been productive in each of his first two games, posting 4-68 in week 1, and 7-114-1 in week 2, but there may be a little bit of fool’s gold in those week 2 numbers. He’s still running as the WR4 in this offense. He played fewer snaps than any of Nuk Hopkins, AJ Green, and Christian Kirk. Moore’s increase in playing time came at the expense of tight end Demetrius Harris, but his targets came at the expense of the other receivers. That isn’t going to be the case every week. DeAndre Hopkins is going to get his volume. For Rondale to continue putting up big fantasy performances, he’s going to have to continue getting outsized target shares for his playing time. It’s possible he does that but be aware of the risk if you picked up Rondale. The Jaguars’ defense isn’t a good one. They rank 28th in pass defense DVOA, so there should be plenty of opportunities for fantasy goodness here, but I wouldn’t be plugging Moore in ahead of proven top-24 WRs just yet. 

Rookies to Sit:

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 3: vs. NO): Jones is living up to expectations as an efficient but unexciting signal-caller so far in his rookie season. He’s completed an impressive 74% of his passes but averages just 6.8 yards per attempts and has put the ball in end zone just once. He gets his stiffest test yet this week, facing off with a New Orleans defense that has allowed the 4th-fewest QB points through the first two weeks. I expect him to continue to be efficient and conservative with the ball, and don’t expect him to finish any higher than a low-end QB2 once again. 

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 3: @Den.): We saw what life without Mekhi Becton is going to look like for Wilson last weekend, and it isn’t pretty. He was under pressure often, and still held the ball too long looking for downfield throws rather than taking checkdowns. He was also more off target in week two with Pro-Football Reference crediting him with a 24.2% bad throw rate (he was at 13.9% in week 1) . Wilson was sacked 4 times and threw 4 interceptions against the Patriots, and he faces an arguably tougher secondary this week. Denver ranks 10th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 7th-fewest QB points per game. They also have a pair of fearsome pass rushers in Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. This is another week where Wilson should be on your bench. 

QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 3: vs. Car.): Mills acquitted himself better than expected after being thrust into action against Cleveland last week, throwing his first career TD, but it was hardly an efficient performance. He completed just 44% of his passes and did turn the ball over once. The Browns have been a lackluster defense against QBs dating back to the beginning of last year, but Carolina’s defense has come out of the gates on fire. The Panthers rank 1st in the league in pass defense DVOA, and first in the league in pressure rate on the QB. The addition of Jaycee Horn has given them a strong enough secondary in coverage to allow them to be more aggressive up front, and it’s working. The Texans don’t boast a strong o-line aside from Laremy Tunsil. They’ve allowed the 12th-highest QB pressure rate in the league and Davis Mills doesn’t have the escapability that Tyrod Taylor does in the pocket. Mills will also be missing Nico Collins and Danny Amendola and has a short week to get ready. This all adds up to a rough Thursday night for the rookie QB. 

QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 3: vs. GB): Lance threw a touchdown pass in the opener against the Lions but didn’t play a single snap in week 2 against the Eagles. It’s clearly not a certainty that we see the Trey Lance packages every week. There are zero formats where it’s a good idea to start the rookie QB this week. 

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 3: @Dal.): For the second straight week Gainwell played about one-third of the Eagles’ offensive snaps while Sanders handled the other two-thirds. The rookie has averaged about 10 touches per game through the first two weeks. That’s not quite enough to consider him a good starting option in most standard leagues, and just enough to consider him if you’re desperate in a deeper league. The Cowboys do look to be much improved on the defensive side of the ball so far this season. They’ve allowed the 9th-fewest running back points per game and don’t jump out as a matchup you should be targeting with Gainwell. 

RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 3: vs. GB): Sermon is working his way back from a concussion this week, and he seems less likely to play at this point than teammate Elijah Mitchell. The matchup isn’t a bad one, but I expect Sermon to be the #2 back if he and Mitchell are both able to go. If only Sermon plays of the two, I’d view him as an RB3 option for the week. Keep an eye on the injury updates here as this could be an evolving situation between now and Sunday. 

RB Larry Roundtree, LAC (Wk. 3: @KC): Roundtree took a backseat to Justin Jackson in week 2 for the complementary back role behind Austin Ekeler, playing just 10 snaps and handling 2 touches in a loss to the Cowboys. He isn’t going to be heavily involved against Kansas City either. 

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 3: vs. NO): While it would be a very Belichick-ian thing to do to have Stevenson go from a healthy scratch in week 2 to being involved in the gameplan in week 3, you can’t start Stevenson in any format even if he does get the chance to suit up. Even if he were expected to play a bunch, the Saints rank 3rd in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 8th-fewest RB points per game in the first 2 weeks. 

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 3: @LV): Waddle’s season was off to a nice start in week 1, but the injury to QB Tua Tagovailoa puts a bit of a damper on his outlook for week 3. With Tua under center, Waddle saw a 22.6% target share and averaged 10.6 yards per target. After Jacoby Brissett entered last Sunday, those numbers dropped to a 15% target share, and 5.8 yards per target. He does get the most favorable individual matchup of the WRs this week, facing off with slot corner Nate Hobbs. Hobbs has allowed a completion on all 8 throws into his coverage so far this season, but I’d shy away from using Waddle in all but deeper PPR leagues. He already saw his snap share drop by 16% from week 1 to week 2, and the Dolphins expect Will Fuller back for this contest, which should drop Waddle’s playing time even further. There’s a chance Waddle gets peppered with short targets in a game where the Dolphins play from behind, but it’ll be hard to rack up a productive stat line that way. 

WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 3: @Buf.): Taylor Heinicke was very impressive against the Giants last week, but that same Giants’ defense let Teddy Bridgewater pick them apart in week 1. Don’t overreact to it. The Bills are a much more formidable challenge. Brown is playing a full-time role in this offense and was targeted 6 times last week, but the DB he should square off with most often this weekend is Levi Wallace. Wallace has allowed just 3.2 yards per target on throws into his coverage so far this season. 

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 3: @Den.): Moore turned in a much better final line in week 2 than he did in the opener, but the Jets’ overall passing game was a mess and things don’t get much easier this week against Denver. Denver leads the league in time of possession through two weeks with Teddy two gloves and their running backs consistently moving the chains, and they should have no trouble playing keep away from the Jets. That will limit New York’s total passing volume, and Moore squares off with veteran corner Kyle Fuller, who has allowed just a 44% completion percentage and 6.8 yards per target on 18 throws into his coverage so far. The Jets have an implied total of just 15.5 points in this game, and that means all their weapons are dodgy options for fantasy this week.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 3: vs. Bal.): In the first two weeks of the season, St. Brown has just 1 reception longer than 7 yards on 9 targets. He did see his target share go up a little bit in week 2, but not enough to make him a useful piece in fantasy lineups. Even with Tyrell Williams sidelined, ARSB remains behind Hockenson, Quintez Cephus, and the pair of running backs in the target pecking order. Add in that the limited targets he’s seeing are low-value targets, and there’s no reason to give him a chance in your lineups this week. 

WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 3: vs. Chi.): Schwartz’s big week 1 performance unfortunately didn’t carry over to week 2. He was on the field about the same amount, but the ball just didn’t come his way. The Browns did place Jarvis Landry on IR this week after an injury he suffered against the Texans, but they also expect to get Odell Beckham Jr. back on the field this week. Beckham likely fits into the role Schwartz has been playing. I’d expect Schwartz to be mostly relegated to the bench with Beckham back in the fold, while Donovan Peoples-Jones and Rashard Higgins fill out the WR group in 3-wide receiver sets. 

WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 3: @KC): Palmer saw a slight uptick in playing time in week 2, going from a 17% snap share in the opener to 25% last weekend, but he’s still running well behind Jalen Guyton for the WR3 spot. He’s seen just 3 targets in an offense that ranks 3rd in the NFL in pass attempts so far. Keep him sidelined until that playing time and usage come up. 

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 3: @Min.): Eskridge missed week 2 in the concussion protocol, and while he still has a chance to suit up this week, he isn’t practicing as of Wednesday. Russell Wilson has been cooking early on this season with a couple deep connections with Tyler Lockett and a connection with Freddie Swain on a 63-yard score in week 2 as well. Eskridge has that deep threat skill set and the Vikings have allowed 8 completions of 20+ yards through the first two weeks, but you can’t count on Eskridge getting back into the mix given his current injury status. 

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 3: vs. Atl.): The Giants get a juicy matchup with a bad Falcons’ defense this week. Evan Engram still isn’t certain to be back, and Kenny Golladay’s status is back in jeopardy after he popped up on the injury report Wednesday. You still shouldn’t be considering Toney after he saw zero targets on 19 week 2 snaps. If he does happen to have a breakout game, I’m willing to let it happen from my bench (or more preferably from the waiver wire). 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 3: @Den.): On paper the Jets seem to have an evenly split 3-headed backfield committee - all 3 of Ty Johnson, Michael Carter, and Tevin Coleman have handled between 14 and 18 touches. In reality the Jets have a two-man backfield, and Carter has been the best of the pair. Carter and Ty Johnson each handled 12+ touches and reached 50 scrimmage yards in week 2, but it was Carter on the field in the two-minute offense, and on the field for 40% of the long down & distance snaps after Johnson played the overwhelming majority of both in week 1. These are the areas where Carter’s receiving prowess can be best utilized. I’d be hesitant to fire any Jets’ running back up against the Broncos. Denver allows the 2nd-fewest RB points per game so far, but Carter should be stashed in deeper leagues, especially if they’re PPR formats. I’d only consider starting him this week if you’re desperate in a deep PPR league. 

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 3: vs. Chi.): I’d be hesitant to get Felton into any lineups this Sunday, but he is worth a stash in deeper leagues with Jarvis Landry placed on IR. He has running back eligibility on pretty much all fantasy platforms but has a chance to see a decent number of snaps as a slot receiver while Landry is out. Felton played a lot of receiver during his time at UCLA and scored a highlight-reel touchdown in his first real NFL action last weekend. He could see more opportunity going forward. If you’re in dire straits at running back in a deep PPR league, Felton could be a worthwhile pickup on the chance that he sees significant slot snaps. Rashard Higgins may be that guy as well, but Felton is worth the pick-up to see how it shakes out this week. You don’t want to be the guy spending significant FAAB money on him next week if he does post a nice game when you could’ve picked him up for nothing. 

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 3: @Hou.): Hubbard got some extended run late last week in a blowout win against the Saints, and he could be in line for a similar opportunity against the Davis Mills-led Texans in week 3. Don’t be discouraged by Hubbard’s inefficient 10 yards on 8 carries against the Saints. New Orleans is one of the stingiest run defenses in the league. They ranked 2nd in run defense DVOA in 2020 and are 3rd so far in 2021. The Texans, on the other hand, rank 31st so far this season. If you read what I wrote above about Davis Mills, you know I think this game can get out of hand. That means a lot of Hubbard late in the game. I think he’s a sneaky play in Thursday night showdown DFS contests. I wouldn’t use him in your captain spot, but his $3,600 price tag on DraftKings for those contests should play just fine, especially if he hits paydirt. 

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 3: @Hou.): If you’re playing in any showdown DFS contests for Thursday Night Football, you’re going to want to target players on the Panthers. Carolina is favored by more than a touchdown and has an implied total of more than 25 points as the Texans trot out Davis Mills at QB. DJ Moore and Christian McCaffrey are going to get their volume, but of the remaining options behind them I like Marshall as the receiving option to have the biggest night. The Texans have been better than expected through the first two weeks, especially as a pass defense, but slot corner Desmond King has struggled in the first two weeks. He’s allowed a line of 7-70-1 on just 8 passes into his coverage and received a 52.5 coverage grade from PFF. Outside corners Vernon Hargreaves and Tremon Smith each graded out at 65 or higher through the first two weeks. I’d probably be hesitant to play Marshall in season-long leagues as this could be a run-heavy game for the Panthers and Marshall is the third receiving option at best. In DFS, however, a 50-yard game with a TD could be a big boost in showdown contests.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 3: vs. Cin.): It took just two weeks for the Penn State rookie to see more snaps than incumbent starter Eric Ebron for the Steelers. Freiermuth was on the field for 59% of the offensive snaps in week 2 and saw 4 targets come his way. With Diontae Johnson very questionable for week 3, there has been some speculation that James Washington is going to get some extra run, but Big Ben is also battling a pec injury. I’m not sure how well he’ll be able to throw the ball downfield. That could lead the Steelers to lean on shorter throws to players like JuJu, Najee Harris, Freiermuth, and Ebron. The Bengals have allowed the 5th-fewest TE points per game so far but have only faced Tyler Conklin and Cole Kmet. I like Freiermuth’s chances at 5+ targets in this game, and that makes him a sneaky option in deeper leagues and in DFS tournaments. 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week one was a very eventful one for the rookie crop and was a humbling reminder how hard it can be to predict what to expect in the first game for the fantasy rookies. The two rookies I told you to start last week, Najee Harris and Kyle Pitts, both had the kind of volume you look for from a fantasy starter (17 touches for Harris and 8 targets for Pitts), but neither put up the kind of fantasy performance that you hope for. Both should have better days ahead. All five of the first-round rookie QBs scored more points than Aaron Rodgers in week 1, and Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence each put up over 250 passing yards and multiple scores. 

It was a big debut week for all 3 of the top-10 drafted WRs as well, as each topped 60 yards and found the end zone in their respective openers. All 3 were somewhat risky fantasy plays going into the week, but I also talked about the big upside each possessed in this article last week. My three deep-league sleeper WRs for week 1 (Elijah Moore, Dyami Brown, and Kadarius Toney) all managed to somehow put up negative receiving yards on Sunday, but Rondale Moore had a nice debut and Anthony Schwartz was a big surprise for the Browns with Odell Beckham sidelined. 

One of the biggest rookie storylines of the week was the San Francisco 49ers backfield. Trey Sermon was long expected to be the number 2 back in the Bay behind Raheem Mostert, but he was a surprising healthy scratch in week 1 and got to watch from the sideline as Elijah Mitchell rattled off over 100 yards and a score against the Lions. With Mostert sidelined for the season, I’ll get into what to do with the 49ers backs going forward later in this article.

There are a few rookies that were close to non-factors in week 1 that don’t warrant enough consideration for a full blurb about their week 2 outlook. Those players are: 

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Played zero offensive snaps in week 1)

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Zero carries, 2 targets in week 1)

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Maybe number 2 back behind Gibson, but played just 4 offensive snaps)

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Saw 2 carries and 1 target in week 1, now in concussion protocol)

WR Tutu Atwell, LAR (Played just 2 offensive snaps in week 1)

WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Targeted just once in 14 offensive snaps week 1)

WR Amari Rodgers, GB (Targeted one time in the 4th quarter of a blowout loss)

WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette, MIN (Played just 4 offensive snaps in week 1. Clearly lost WR3 battle with KJ Osborn)

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 2…

Rookies to Start: 

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 2: vs. LV): Harris’ debut wasn’t quite what fantasy managers who drafted him in the first or second round were hoping for as he totaled fewer than 6 fantasy points against the Bills. On the one hand, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the Steelers’ offensive line isn’t great and struggled against a talented defense like Buffalo’s. On the other hand, Najee Harris played 100% of the offensive snaps and handled all the running back touches. That’s the kind of usage you’re looking in a first round fantasy running back. The offensive line should improve with more time playing together, and there will be easier matchups to come, starting as soon as this week with the Raiders. Vegas allowed the 4th-most running back points per game in 2020 and ranked 28th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. In the opener Monday night they let the combination of Ty’Son Williams, Latavius Murray, and Trenton Cannon put up 98 rushing yards and 2 scores. Najee should be in for a bounce back performance and should be started with confidence.  

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 2: @Jax.): If you look only at their final fantasy production, you’d probably think Melvin Gordon is still the clear lead back in Denver after the veteran posted 118 scrimmage yards and a touchdown Sunday while the rookie ended up with 41 scoreless yards. If you only look at that production, you’d miss that it was Javonte who handled 56% of the RB rushing attempts, and two-thirds of the short down & distance snaps. Gordon padded his stats with a 70-yard touchdown run but at worst this is a 50-50 timeshare for Javonte. At best, he’s the current 1-A to Gordon’s 1-B…and this week they get to go face the Jaguars. The Jaguars allowed the third-most RB points per game last season and allowed the 3rd-most RB points in week 1 as they were publicly undressed by what should be a very bad Texans team. The Broncos should be able to have their way with the Jags, and I expect a much better showing from Javonte in this one. I’d view him as a low-end RB2 who’s a better option in formats that aren’t full PPR. 

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 2: vs. SF): If you just look at the box score from week 1, you can see that DeVonta Smith had a solid NFL debut. If you look deeper at the numbers, there are even more reasons to be excited about what Smith can do this season. The rookie dominated usage in the Eagles’ passing game. Smith ran a route on 95% of the Eagles dropbacks in week 1, had a 23% target share, and a whopping 55% of the team’s air yards. Despite the talk of how involved the Eagles’ tight ends would be this year, this passing game runs through DeVonta Smith. Smith gets a very favorable week 2 matchup. The 49ers have typically been good against wide receivers over the last couple seasons, but they lost their top corner Jason Verrett for the year last week and may not have Emmanuel Moseley back from injury in time for this game. That leaves them with freshly signed Dre Kirkpatrick and Josh Norman (neither of whom were on a team for training camp), 5th-round rookie Deommodore Lenoir (who held up well in week 1 but faced a Lions’ team that is devoid of WR talent), and Dontae Johnson (who was cut for Josh Norman before being later re-signed). No matter who the matchup, I expect Smith to have a notable advantage. He should be fired up as a WR2 this week. 

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 2: @TB): I may regret listing Pitts here come Monday, but you simply can’t already be benching this guy after a so-so week 1 performance given what he cost to acquire. This matchup isn’t an exciting one. The Falcons struggled to keep Matt Ryan upright last week against the Eagles, allowing pressure on more than 30% of his dropbacks (the 8th-worst mark in week 1). They should have similar issues with the Bucs in week 2. Philly was 2nd in the league last year in pressure rate as a defense, and the Bucs were 3rd (and returned all 11 starters). That pressure could actually play into Pitts’ hands. His average target depth was just 4.8 yards in the opener, and Ryan may need to find him as an outlet in the short part of the field to beat the pass rush. Pitts did have 8 targets in week 1, tied with Calvin Ridley for the team lead and good for a 24% share. He’s going to be heavily involved. The Bucs are not a dominant defense against tight ends. They allowed the 10th-most points per game to the position a year ago and allowed Blake Jarwin and Dalton Schultz to combine for 9 catches and 65 yards a week ago. If you drafted Pitts, don’t run away from starting him in this matchup. 

Borderline Rookies: 

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 2: vs. Den.): The Jacksonville Jaguars, as a team, had the most embarrassing performance in the NFL in week 1 by getting housed by a Houston Texans team that is expected to be the worst in the NFL. Somehow Trevor Lawrence still finished the week as a QB1. Playing from behind played into his hands in the opener, as he tallied over 330 passing yards and 3 touchdowns. He also threw 3 interceptions, but it was an exciting week, nonetheless. On paper, the Denver Broncos should be a tough matchup. PFF graded their secondary as the best in the NFL entering the season, but they let Daniel Jones throw for over 260 yards and a score against them last week. The Broncos did revamp their secondary in the offseason, so you shouldn’t give too much weight to the fact that they allowed the 10th-most QB points per game a season ago, but there seems to be a defensive issue that has carried over. They struggle to prevent QBs from running the ball, especially near the goal-line. Denver allowed the 5th-most QB rushing yards per game last season, and tied for the most QB rushing scores allowed, and then in week one they let Daniel Jones run for 27 yards and a score. We’re yet to see Trevor Lawrence showcase that part of his game, but he has the capability. He rushed for 766 yards and 17 TDs in his last two seasons at Clemson, and he may get a chance to flash those skills again this week. The Jaguars should be playing from behind and throwing again (they’re a 6-point home underdog), and I like Lawrence’s chances of posting multiple total scores and another top-15 QB finish. 

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 2: @Phi.): Mitchell was certainly the biggest surprise of week one among the rookies, getting the nod as the 49ers RB2 ahead of the higher drafted Trey Sermon, and then putting on a show when his number was called after Raheem Mostert suffered a season-ending injury. Mitchell handled 19 of the 20 running back rushing attempts after Mostert went down and finished the day with a 104-yard performance that included a scintillating 38-yard touchdown run. It was an impressive debut from a player who wasn’t on very many fantasy radars…but will it carry over to week 2? Head coach Kyle Shanahan explained Trey Sermon’s healthy scratch by saying that he just wasn’t one of their top-3 guys out of camp, but I suspect it had something to do with the fact that Sermon doesn’t play special teams. Mitchell and JaMycal Hasty both do. I expect Sermon to be active in week 2, and it remains to be seen which back will post the better fantasy day. Kyle Shanahan has shown a willingness to ride the hot hand in the backfield, regardless of who has it. Since the start of 2020, 6 different running backs have led the team in rushing attempts, with 5 of them handling two-thirds of the HB rushing attempts at least once. Injuries played some part in the musical chairs in this backfield, but this job isn’t going to just be handed to Mitchell. I expect he’ll get first crack to establish the hot hand in week 2 but faces a Philly defense that allowed the 11th-fewest RB points per game in 2020. He’s also unlikely to be very active in the passing game. Mitchell wasn’t targeted once in week 1 and averaged just 1.24 receptions per game over his last 3 college seasons (no more than 1.6 per game in any individual season). I’d shy away from Mitchell in PPR formats and look at him as a risk/reward RB3 option in half- and non-PPR scoring. 

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 2: @Chi.): The pecking order of the Bengals’ WR group was one of the hottest topics of discussion of the offseason, and for at least week 1 the top option of that group appeared to be the rookie Ja’Marr Chase. Chase led the team in route participation and had the highest percentage of targets per route run. He finished with a 5-101-1 line on 7 targets and clearly still knows how to catch a football even without the white stripes on it. The problem for Chase is that this offense has two other very capable receivers who may have better matchups than he does this week. Chase should do most of his work against 2nd-year pro Jaylon Johnson. Johnson had his struggles as a rookie, allowing nearly 9 yards per target and a 107.5 passer rating into his coverage, but his cohorts in this secondary are worse. Marqui Christian and Kindle Vildor are likely to be overmatched by Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins, and I look for Joe Burrow to share a little of the wealth with them this week. Chase has the same kind of upside that he did a week ago, but I’d be a little hesitant to go all-in for this week’s matchup. I view him as a WR3 option for week 2. 

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 2: vs. Buf.): Like the other two receivers drafted in the top-10 this year, Waddle’s debut was a rousing success. He managed to get in the end zone and finished as the WR27 for the week with 4 catches for 61 yards on 6 targets. Waddle was in a route on 93% of Miami’s dropbacks in week 1, and was targeted on 18% of his routes, but those numbers could both drop with Will Fuller returning from suspension. Waddle spent 75% of his snaps in the slot, but he could leave the field in 2-WR sets with Fuller back. Waddle will match up mostly with Taron Johnson in the slot, who was just an average corner last season, but he allowed just 2 catches on 5 targets into his coverage in week 1 and the Bills allowed the 4th-fewest WR points per game in 2020. With slightly reduced usage, I would be less excited to fire up Waddle this week than I am DeVonta or Chase. 

Rookies to Sit: 

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 2: @NYJ): I was very tempted to list Jones as a sleeper for week 2 but couldn’t bring myself to do it. I just don’t think the Patriots will have to throw enough to make Jones a viable option even in 2 quarterback leagues. The Jets were an awful defense in 2020, allowing the 3rd-most QB points per game, but have just 3 starters that are carry-overs from last year (Quinnen Williams, Bryce Hall, Marcus Maye). I expect them to play better as a unit under the leadership of Robert Saleh, and in week 1 they limited Sam Darnold to just 1 touchdown and a QB17 finish. I’d expect that to be the high end of Jones’ reasonable range of outcomes for week 2 and wouldn’t consider him other than as a low-end QB2 option. 

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 1: vs. NE): Wilson had a shaky debut in week 1, but he still managed to throw for over 250 yards and a pair of TDs en route to finishing as the QB16 for the week. He should face more of an uphill battle in week 2. The Jets’ o-line allowed the highest pressure rate in the league in week one, and with Mekhi Becton sidelined, Wilson could be under fire even more often in week 2. He was sacked twice in just 13 snaps after Becton was injured in week 1. The Patriots only sacked Tua twice last week and had just the 20th best pressure rate in the league, but I expect Belichick to have some wrinkles ready for the rookie QB this week. There is a narrative that you shouldn’t start rookie QBs against Belichick, and there’s a reason that narrative exists. There have been 31 rookie QBs to make a start against the Belichick Patriots. 15 of them scored fewer than 10 fantasy points, and only 5 of them made it to 18. The absolute best rookie performance against them in that span was put up by Russell Wilson in 2012. Wilson scored 23.42 fantasy points in that game. That score would’ve been good enough for a finish as the QB12 last week. Again, that’s the BEST rookie QB performance EVER against the Belichick Patriots. Wilson isn’t likely to approach it. 

QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 2: @Phi.): The 49ers will likely roll into week 2 with the attitude of ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’ at the quarterback position. Jimmy Garoppolo played well in week 1 and should again be at the helm of the offense, with a few designed packages and plays for Lance. The Eagles’ defense erased Matt Ryan and the Falcons in week 1, but they were just a middling QB defense a year ago. Lance’s upside is a possible TD again, which isn’t useful in fantasy when 15 quarterbacks topped 20 points in week 1. 

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 2: vs. Cin.): Unless there is a drastic change between now and Sunday, it’ll be Andy Dalton under center for the Bears against the Bengals. You may see Fields mix-in for a few plays again like he did in week 1, but even if he duplicates his performance, one TD with very little other production isn’t going to do you much good in fantasy. If by some chance the Bears made the move to Fields as the starter this week, he’d have sneaky upside as a QB2 against a Bengals’ defense that ranked just 27th in pass defense DVOA in 2020. 

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 2: @NYJ): Stevenson’s stellar preseason did not carry over into the regular season as his career began with a resounding thud. The rookie back lost a fumble early on and didn’t see the field again as Damien Harris dominated touches. There have been reports that the Patriots could reduce Harris’ role this week after his own late fumble cost the Patriots the game. It remains to be seen whether that could allow Stevenson to work his way back into the mix, or if 2nd-year pro JJ Taylor will get a shot instead. I’d avoid using Stevenson in any lineups until things work themselves out. Even if he does play a bit, he won’t return much value without a TD. 

RB Larry Roundtree, LAC (Wk. 2: vs. Dal.): Roundtree appears to be the primary backup to Austin Ekeler in this offense, but it’s unclear if there’s any value there is in that role after Ekeler handled 60% of all the Chargers running back touches in week 1 despite not seeing a single target. Ekeler handled half of the snaps in short down & distance situations with Roundtree seeing the other half. On passing downs, it was Justin Jackson splitting the work with Ekeler. Roundtree is probably going to see anywhere from 5-8 carries and zero targets most weeks. If he doesn’t score a TD he isn’t going to give you much value in your lineup. 

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 2: @Phi.): Carter did at least see a handful of touches in the opener, but his usage wasn’t encouraging. Carter’s value comes in his ability as a receiver, and Ty Johnson was on the field for 80% of the long down & distance situations for the Jets. Carter did handle the other 20%, but he was only on the field for 25% of the team’s total snaps. Until that number comes up, there’s no reason to consider him in your lineups. 

WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 2: vs. NYG): Brown may be the guy who is the most negatively affected by the Ryan Fitzpatrick injury. Brown’s skill set is best utilized on downfield throws, and we’re certainly less likely to see downfield throws from Taylor Heinicke than from FitzMagic. Washington leaned heavily on the running game in the opener. They dialed up a run play on 16 of the 34 plays with Heinicke at QB. I’d look for that to be the strategy going forward. One silver lining is that Terry McLaurin is likely to draw James Bradberry in coverage in week 2. Bradberry’s coverage helped make Courtland Sutton a non-factor in week 1, and he was one of the best coverage corners in the league with a 79.9 coverage grade from PFF in 2020 (7th-best among qualified CBs). If Heinicke shies away from throwing into Bradberry’s coverage, it could mean a few extra looks in Brown’s direction. Unfortunately, I don’t expect them to be the downfield looks that could make him a useful fantasy starter. 

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 2: vs. NE): Moore did not make the splash I expected him to in his debut, finishing with 1 catch for negative-3 yards on 4 targets, but he had some opportunities, and his peripheral numbers were encouraging. Moore’s average target depth was 23 yards downfield, and he was in a route on 85% of the Jets’ dropbacks. Corey Davis is going to be the volume receiver in this offense, and they’re clearly going to look to Moore to try and stretch the field. I’m not sure how many opportunities he’ll get to do that this week. The Patriots were in the top-10 at limiting WR fantasy points a year ago and allowed the 5th-fewest in week 1, and with Mekhi Becton sidelined, the Jets’ o-line might not hold up long enough to let downfield plays develop. Unless the Jets do a better job of getting Moore involved on quick hitting routes, he could have a quiet day again. 

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 2: vs. NO): Marshall was involved more than I expected in week 1, playing 53% of the offensive snaps and drawing 6 targets against the Jets. Those targets were less than 9 yards downfield on average, and Marshall only pulled in 3 of them for 26 scoreless yards. Teammate Robby Anderson posted more than double the fantasy points on half as many targets. I don’t expect Marshall to consistently out-target Anderson, but I do expect both guys to be fighting for what’s left over after Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore get their touches. This week the Panthers face a New Orleans defense that stifled the Packers’ high-powered offense in week one. I wouldn’t want to take a chance on Marshall or Anderson having a breakthrough as the Saints add Bradley Roby into the secondary mix. 

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 2: @Cle.): Collins had a quiet debut after getting a bit of camp buzz this summer for the Texans. He did run as the WR2 in terms of playing time but was targeted on just 10% of his routes. Both Brandin Cooks and Chris Conley were targeted at higher rates. There should be more volume for the Texans passing attack in week 2. They won’t be dominating the scoreboard in this game like they did against the Jaguars, but I’m not quite ready to believe that Tyrod Taylor will continue to play at the level he did in week 1. The Browns should make it a long day for a Texans’ team with an implied total of less than 18 points. Brandin Cooks is the only piece of this offense to consider in week 2. 

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 2: @GB): In a game where Jared Goff threw the ball 57 times, St. Brown was targeted on just 6% of his routes. This passing game is clearly going to run through the running backs and TJ Hockenson, and there were no signs in week 1 that ARSB is standing out over his teammates at wide receiver. Kalif Raymond, Trinity Benson, and Quintez Cephus were all targeted at a higher rate than Amon-Ra. Week 1 was a strange game for the Lions, with them falling behind by 28 points and rallying back with some back-ups in the game, so things could change in ARSB’s favor. He still shouldn’t be in your week 2 lineup. 

WR Mike Strachan, IND (Wk. 2: vs. LAR): Strachan was involved a bit in the opener, and there has been a lot of buzz about how much the coaching staff loves him, but he still played only 18 snaps, was targeted just twice in week 1, and draws a matchup against a Rams defense that has been among the best in the NFL at limiting WR points since the start of last year. Hard pass. 

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 2: @Was.): After a lot of talk about Toney potentially getting extra opportunity in week one due to the injuries the Giants’ pass catchers were dealing with, he played just 5 offensive snaps and turned 2 targets into 2 catches and negative-2 yards. Steer clear of Toney until his playing time improves. It’s too early to write him off, but there is a chance he turns into Tavon Austin all over again. Jason Garrett just isn’t a creative enough play-caller to maximize Toney’s talents.  

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 2: vs. LV): Freiermuth had a typical rookie tight end game last week. He played 29 offensive snaps and finished with one catch for 24 yards on one target. Teammate Eric Ebron wasn’t heavily involved either with just 2 targets on 27 snaps. This week’s opponent, the Raiders, were middle of the pack against tight ends last year allowing the 17th most points per game to the position. They limited Mark Andrews to just 3 catches for 20 yards on Monday night. There are better tight end options available than a guy playing half the team snaps in a middling matchup. 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options: 

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 2: vs. SF): It’s unlikely Gainwell got through your waivers unclaimed this week, but if he did, he’s worth scooping up. While he’s clearly behind Miles Sanders in the Eagles’ backfield, he got nearly half of the short down & distance snaps and 100% of the two-minute offense snaps. Those are the places where RBs can make their fantasy money (at the goal-line and catching passes in a hurry-up offense). The 49ers are coming off a week where they allowed the Lions’ running backs to haul in an absurd 16 receptions, and they’re banged up on the defensive side of the ball. Gainwell excels as a receiver out of the backfield and has a great chance to be a useful flex option in PPR leagues this week. 

RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 2: @Phi.): If you read what I wrote about Elijah Mitchell above, you already know why I have Sermon listed here. For season-long leagues, he’s a guy you can probably acquire on the cheap or possibly scoop off the wire if an impatient manager already dropped him. When he doesn’t have a clear-cut standout RB1, Kyle Shanahan likes to ride the hot hand. I expect Mitchell will be the first man up against the Eagles, but Sermon isn’t going to be a healthy scratch again this week and likely gets a chance if Mitchell struggles. As I mentioned with Mitchell, this isn’t a cake matchup. The Eagles ranked 13th in run defense DVOA last season, so it’s possible no one establishes the hot hand. Sermon is still worth going after as a budget alternative to spending all your free agent budget on Mitchell. There’s a reason the 49ers drafted him in the 3rd round and Mitchell in the 6th.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 2: vs. Min.): Moore’s playing time in week one wasn’t quite as extensive as you’d hope for as he played 38% of the team’s offensive snaps, but the ball came his way when he was on the field, and he produced with his opportunities. Moore finished with 4 catches for 68 yards on 5 targets, good for 17 yards per catch despite his average target coming less than 5 yards downfield. Teammate Christian Kirk draws a tough matchup in the slot with Mackensie Alexander this week, and the beauty of the Cardinals’ offense is that they play 4 WRs together with regularity and force the opposing defense into a dime package where their secondary depth is exposed. Moore’s opponent for many of his snaps should be 3rd-year corner Kris Boyd, who allowed a 121.4 passer rating on throws into his coverage last season on 39 targets. DeAndre Hopkins should dominate targets again for the Cardinals, but Moore should have an opportunity to build on what he did in his debut. He’s a sneaky WR3 option in PPR leagues this week, and costs just $4,000 in tournaments on DraftKings. 

WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 2: vs. Hou.): Schwartz was thrust into a big role unexpectedly in week one with Odell Beckham Jr. sidelined, and he made a big impression. Baker Mayfield looked his way downfield on several occasions and he posted a nice day with 69 receiving yards. He finished with an average target depth of just over 25 yards. With Odell already ruled out for week 2, Schwartz could do more of the same. His speed is going to be a matchup nightmare for a Texans secondary that allowed Trevor Lawrence to connect on 5 throws of 20+ yards last week. Not one of Houston’s top-3 corners runs faster than a 4.50 40-yard dash. Schwartz is one of the fastest receivers in the league, running a sub-4.30 at his pro day. The Browns are nearly two-touchdown favorites, so if things go according to plan, they may not be throwing a ton in the second half, but Schwartz has a chance to do damage before things get ugly. There is always a bit of boom-or-bust nature with pure deep threats, but Schwartz has a legit chance to boom and costs just $3,300 on DraftKings. 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve finally made it back to the NFL regular season, and I’m excited to be back to look at which rookies can lead your teams to the win column each week. If you’re new to the Rookie Report, welcome! Every week I’ll look at the matchups of all the fantasy-relevant rookies and give you my take on what you should do with them for your lineups. I’ll group the players into 4 categories – Rookies to Start, Borderline Rookies, Rookies to Sit, and Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options. While those category names are pretty straightforward, don’t take them too literally. You should always read the explanation of why I have a player listed in the category he is and apply it to your league rules and roster. If I list Javonte Williams as a rookie to start, and you drafted him as your 4^th running back, you might still have better options and should leave him sidelined. I also may call a QB borderline specifically in 2-QB formats…that doesn’t mean you should consider him over a top-12 option. I just want to supply some useful info so you can make the best decisions for your own starting lineup each week. Before we get into the Week 1 report, I wanted to share my redraft rookie top-12 for the 2021 season:

1. RB Najee Harris, PIT
2. RB Javonte Williams, DEN
3. TE Kyle Pitts, ATL
4. WR DeVonta Smith, PHI
5. WR Elijah Moore, NYJ
6. WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN
7. RB Trey Sermon, SF
8. WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA
9. WR Terrace Marshall Jr, CAR
10. QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX
11. QB Zach Wilson, NYJ
12. QB Justin Fields, CHI

Week 1 is always a difficult one to predict for the rookies. Coaches often don’t want to tip their hand as to how they’d like to use their rookies in the preseason, and we wind up trying to read the tea leaves and deciphering the true meaning behind coachspeak to sort things out. Those tea leaves got even harder to read this year with just 3 preseason games instead of 4. That will throw off the normal preseason routines and usage patterns that we’re used to. Even if you think you’ve got a good handle on how a player will be used, you’ll still have to figure out how difficult of a matchup they’re facing. The most objective measure we have for this is how the team fared against the position last year. The only problem with that is these defenses aren’t the same as they were last year. Case in point, the Atlanta Falcons allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers last season than any other defense…but in 2019 they allowed just the 15^th most. Things can change a lot in a year. With all of that in mind, bear with me as I try to sift through what to do with your rookies in week 1.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 1…

Rookies to Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 1: @Buf.): If you have Najee on your team, you likely had to select him by the early second round, and you can’t sit him week 1. The Steelers’ offensive line woes have been a hot topic throughout the offseason, but the Bills were just a middling run defense last year and the volume will be there for Najee in week 1. Buffalo ranked 17^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat in 2020 and allowed the 12^th-most points per game to the position. This probably isn’t going to be a ceiling week for Najee, so he probably isn’t the best DFS target, but he should be a solid RB2 in the opener.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 1: vs. Phi.): You didn’t draft Kyle Pitts to sit him. If you have him on your team, he should probably be in the starting lineup this week. The Eagles allowed the 11^th-most TE points per game last season, and while they have upgraded the secondary with the addition of Steven Nelson from the Steelers, this is far from an elite unit. The Falcons are likely to use Pitts all over the formation. He’ll face stiff competition when he lines up outside against Darius Slay and Nelson, but he should have a much bigger advantage when he’s lined up in-line against a safety, or in the slot against 5’9” Avonte Maddox. If Pitts is who we think he is, this is a spot where he should smash.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 1: @Car.): The Jets’ rookie signal-caller gets a soft landing in his NFL debut facing off with the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers played a conservative defense last season that attempts to limit big plays, but they were picked apart underneath. The Jets' new OC Mike LaFleur brings an efficient system with him from San Francisco that could have a field day against that sort of defense. Carolina allowed the 8^th-highest passer rating to opposing QBs and ranked 23^rd in pass defense DVOA despite allowing just 6 pass plays of 40+ yards all season. Phil Snow returns as defensive coordinator, so the scheme should be similar in 2021. Carolina’s defense crumbled down the stretch last season, allowing 3+ passing TDs in 5 of their final 8 games, and they’ll need a big impact from first-round rookie Jaycee Horn if they want to shore that up. The Panthers are favored by 4.5 points in this game, so the game script should keep Wilson throwing. He has a very real chance to make a big splash in week 1. He should be considered a solid QB2 option in the opening week.

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 1: @Hou.): I mentioned that Zach Wilson gets a soft landing in his debut, but the number 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence gets an even softer one. The Texans ranked 29^th in the league in pass defense DVOA in 2020 and traded away their top cornerback Bradley Roby this week. Roby was going to be out due to suspension anyway this weekend, but the Texans were absolutely shredded through the air without him last season, giving up an average of 278 passing yards per game and multiple total TDs to the opposing QB in all 6 games. They even allowed Jake Luton to throw for 304 yards and Brandon Allen to throw for 371 with Roby sidelined. The Texans have revamped their roster over the offseason, but it now looks like one of the worst rosters in the NFL, and the defense should be a rag-tag bunch. My biggest concern for Lawrence is that we may see a lot of handoffs to James Robinson and Carlos Hyde. In addition to being awful against the pass last year, the Texans also allowed the most rushing yards, the highest yards per carry average, and the 2nd-most rushing TDs. Those volume concerns are why I view Lawrence as a lower-end QB2 in his NFL debut.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 1: @Atl.): Smith is in line to be the Eagles WR1 in the season opener, and on paper, the matchup looks good. The Falcons allowed more fantasy points per game to receivers than any other team last season. They did revamp much of the back end of their defense over the offseason but none of the new additions seem likely to be big difference makers. Fabian Moreau was solid for Washington last season, allowing a passer rating below 80 on passes into his coverage, but that wouldn’t scare me off Smith this week. My bigger concerns are that the two tight ends may be the top two targets in what shapes up as a lower volume passing attack. Smith has a sky-high ceiling in this matchup, but probably shouldn’t be started ahead of any top-24 WRs.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 1: vs. Min.): Chase’s training camp struggles have been discussed ad nauseam throughout the last month, and while I think they’re being overblown it’s enough to worry me for week 1. I don’t think Chase actually thinks the NFL ball is harder to catch because it’s a little bigger and doesn’t have stripes. I do think there is a little rust still from him not playing football last year, but that will shake off quickly once the games start counting. Chase is still slated to start in an offense that had enough passing volume to get 3 different receivers to 100 targets last season even with QB Joe Burrow missing 6 games. He’s going to see volume, and he opens the season against a Vikings team that allowed the 5^th-most WR points per game in 2020. The Vikings did bring in Patrick Peterson to help shore up that pass defense, but it remains to be seen how much the 31-year-old corner has left in the tank. He allowed a passer rating of 98.2 on throws into his coverage last season. I’d fade Chase to a small degree early in the season while he works out those training camp kinks, but he has WR2 upside this week.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 1: @NE): Waddle enters week 1 with some sneaky upside as Will Fuller finishes serving the last game of his PED suspension. Waddle is listed as a starting receiver for the Dolphins, he plays with a QB that he caught passes from in college, and he faces a Patriots’ defense this week that is missing their #1 cornerback Stephon Gilmore. New England was stingy against receivers in 2020, allowing the 8^th-fewest WR points per game, but they were just 18^th in pass defense DVOA. Waddle wasn’t a big volume receiver in college. He never topped 45 receptions in a season, but he’s a big-play threat and the Dolphins have emphasized pushing the ball downfield in camp this season. Waddle isn’t an especially safe play this week, but his ceiling looks something like what Marquise Brown did in his NFL debut 2 years ago (4-147-2). A more realistic hope is probably 4-5 catches with one big play sprinkled in. I’d consider him in the WR4 range this week.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 1: vs. Mia.): Jones has earned the starting job in New England to open the season, but I wouldn’t be eager to get him into lineups in week 1. I expect the Patriots to play conservatively and lean on the run game, and the Dolphins return 9 out of 11 starters from a defense that allowed the 2^nd-fewest passing touchdowns in the league last year. I don’t expect Mac to have enough passing volume to put up big yardage, and this defense isn’t one that’s likely to give up a lot of TDs. I’d wait on getting Mac into starting lineups.

QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 1: @Det.): This may be a moot point to mention with Jimmy Garoppolo officially named as the week 1 starter on Wednesday, but the 49ers tinkered with a 2-QB approach in the preseason and may utilize that to some degree during the regular season. Don’t be surprised if Lance plays a few series while this game is competitive, and since this game has one of the biggest point spreads of the week at 7.5 there may be some garbage time late. It won’t amount to enough opportunity to make Lance a useful week 1 option, and he may even put a dent into Jimmy G’s upside in this inviting matchup.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 1: vs. Mia.): Stevenson was one of the league’s breakout performers in the preseason as he piled up 216 yards and 5 touchdowns across 3 games, but he’ll almost certainly open the season playing second fiddle to Damien Harris in this run game. The Dolphins are more vulnerable on the ground than they are through the air, but if you play Stevenson, you’re hoping he steals the goal-line work from Harris and gets into the end zone.

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 1: @Atl.): Gainwell enters week 1 of the season without his role clearly defined. The expectation is that he’ll mix in on passing downs as that’s an area he’s specialized in and Miles Sanders has had issues catching the football in practice, but it’s possible we see Boston Scott taking some of that work as well. The Falcons did allow the 9^th-most receptions per game to opposing running backs in 2020, but also the 6^th-fewest RB fantasy points per game. I’d wait a week or two to see how this backfield shakes out before trusting Gainwell in lineups.

RB Larry Rountree, LAC (Wk. 1: @Was.): Don’t be fooled by the news that Austin Ekeler is suddenly questionable for Sunday’s game and think that Rountree has some sneaky upside. If Ekeler sits, the Chargers will likely handle the backfield with a committee approach with Justin Jackson leading the way. Washington allowed the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game a season ago and still boasts one of the best front 7’s in the NFL. Don’t fall for the trap here.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 1: vs. Min.): There’s no reason to consider Evans for your lineups or go scoop him off the waiver wire just yet but keep an eye on how the Bengals use him in week 1. The team’s offensive coordinator Brian Callahan said that Evans has “the most natural hands for a running back that I’ve ever been around.” Callahan has been around Gio Bernard, Joe Mixon, Jalen Richard, Doug Martin, and Theo Riddick, among others. Joe Mixon is expected to have a workhorse role, but there is still a chance that Evans is able to carve out a receiving role, so it’s a situation worth monitoring.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 1: @Ten.): Moore draws a good matchup for his NFL debut, but it remains to be seen how much playing time he’ll get. The Titans allowed the 2^nd-most WR points per game last season but reports throughout camp have made it clear that DeAndre Hopkins and AJ Green will be the top 2 targets in this offense, and there’s no guarantee Moore is playing ahead of Christian Kirk in Week 1. No team played more 4-wide receiver sets than the Cardinals, and only the Bills even came close, but that still accounted for just 21% of their offensive snaps. If Moore is behind Kirk, he won’t be on the field nearly enough to help you. Monitor his usage in this one, but I wouldn’t put him in the Week 1 lineup.

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 1: vs. NYJ): If you drafted Marshall in your fantasy leagues, you may have circled his week 1 matchup with the Jets as a great opportunity to get him in the lineup. The Jets were the worst team in the NFL last season and ranked 28^th in pass defense DVOA. I wouldn’t be so quick to trust the rookie. He still enters the season 4^th in the target pecking order behind Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, and Robby Anderson, and this may be a game where they don’t need to throw it a ton. Despite their defensive woes against the pass, the Jets still only allowed the 14^th-most WR points per game. I’m not sure there will be enough passing volume to go around to make Marshall a useful piece in season-long leagues. He does cost the minimum on DraftKings, however, and may be worth a shot in DFS tournaments.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): Generally speaking, the Texans are an offense that should be avoided for fantasy purposes, and that’s especially true when you’re talking about players who aren’t even slated to start. Collins has seemingly been leapfrogged on the depth chart by Chris Conley in recent weeks, and the Texans are expected to lean heavily on the running game when they can since they have a plethora of experienced running backs and start Tyrod Taylor at QB. Game script is going to make that hard to do some weeks, but this week against Jacksonville is a game where the Texans may manage to be competitive. The Jaguars are favored by just 3 points. Collins looks like he’ll be the WR3 in a low-volume passing attack in this one. Steer clear.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk.1: vs. SF): ARSB has been a popular name as a fantasy sleeper this year since the Lions appear to be devoid of much WR talent on the roster, but he’s listed as a 3^rd-stringer on the Lions’ most recent unofficial depth chart. There is an opportunity for a Lions’ WR to step up in the opener – the 49ers were just a middling defense against wide receivers last year and may be missing starting CB Emmanuel Mosley on Sunday, and game script is likely to keep the Lions throwing. I just don’t have any confidence that St. Brown is the guy who steps up in this one. I’d take a wait-and-see approach with the rookie.

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 1: @Ind.): Eskridge was a fun player to watch during his time at Western Michigan, but he’s probably got work to do to carve out a role with the Seahawks. In 2020, Seattle wide receivers not named DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett combined for 69 targets all year (nice). That works out to a 4.3 per game split between all the other wide receivers. That’s going to have to be significantly different in the new offense under Shane Waldron for Eskridge to find his way to a meaningful rookie role. Waldron spent the past 3 years as the LA Rams passing game coordinator, and in the past two years, the Rams’ WR3 has averaged just over 75 targets. That would at least be a start for Eskridge, but I’d like to see that play out on the field before I insert the rookie into lineups. The Colts were a middling WR defense last year, not a bad one, so this isn’t the week to take a swing on an unknown.

WR Tutu Atwell, LAR (Wk. 1: vs. Chi.): Atwell was heavily targeted in the preseason, but he managed to turn 29 targets into 18 catches for just 129 yards. His usage made Diontae Johnson look like a downfield threat. I don’t expect Atwell to see a lot of snaps in week one as he’s listed behind both DeSean Jackson and Van Jefferson on the Rams’ depth chart. Even if he does see some time on the field, his preseason usage hints at him only having value in the deepest PPR leagues for now. Keep him parked on the bench this week.

WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette, MIN (Wk. 1: @Cin.): Smith-Marsette could open the season as the Vikings WR3, but that role on this team isn’t one that’s going to result in useful fantasy production, even with Irv Smith out. Last season the Vikings top two tight ends and their WR3 combined for just 110 targets, with only 30 of them going to WR3 Chad Beebe. Even if all that target share was divvied up evenly between Tyler Conklin and Smith-Marsette, we’re still only talking about less than 3.5 targets per game for each guy. Leave Ihmir on the waiver wire unless he starts to produce.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 1: @Buf.): Freiermuth is likely going to open the season as the TE2 in Pittsburgh behind Eric Ebron, so he should be avoided in fantasy lineups for week 1. If you play DFS and thought Freiermuth had sneaky upside facing a Bills defense that allowed the 6^th-most TE points per game last season, keep in mind that they were missing Matt Milano for 6 games last season, and they were shredded by tight ends in those 6 games. With Milano on the field, only 1 tight end all year reached 10 fantasy points in half-PPR scoring against the Bills.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 1: @NYG): Williams enters week one as part of what appears to be a 1-2 running back punch to start the season for the Broncos. The expectation is that Melvin Gordon will be the 1, and Javonte the 2, but don’t be surprised if that turns out to be reversed. Gordon played in the final preseason game while Javonte was held out despite not being injured. This usually means the team has big plans for a player and wants to make sure they don’t get hurt in a meaningless game. Gordon did miss time earlier in camp with a groin injury, so there’s a chance he was only playing because he hadn’t gotten any live game reps in the first two preseason contests, but Javonte being held out is certainly a good sign for the rookie. The Broncos want to lean on the run game when they can with game-manager Teddy Bridgewater at QB. They ranked 13^th in the league in rushing attempts last season. They face the Giants in week 1. New York allowed the 14^th-most RB points per game last season – not good, not terrible, but they also lost their run-stopping nose tackle Dalvin Tomlinson in free agency. If Javonte is the leader of this committee, I like his chances to see 15+ touches in week 1 and return RB2 value. He costs the minimum on DraftKings and could be a difference-maker if you have the fortitude to get him in the lineup in season-long leagues this week.

RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 1: @Det.): Sermon may not have taken the starting job right away like some were predicting, but he still has an opportunity for a nice debut. Raheem Mostert will be the starter, but there may be enough to go around for both players to be productive in this game. The 49ers are one of the heaviest favorites of the week, and the Lions ranked 27^th in run defense DVOA en route to allowing the most RB fantasy points per game in the league. San Francisco hasn’t been shy about their desire to run the ball a lot this season, and the Lions aren’t likely to be the team to prevent them from doing that. Sermon should mix in a fair amount as a change of pace back to Mostert and may see some extra work down the stretch if the 49ers get out in front. A finish in the RB3 range would be a successful debut for the rookie.

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 1: @Car.): With Jamison Crowder still struggling to get himself back from the Covid reserve list, Elijah Moore is in line to start in the slot in week 1, and a big debut could be in the offing. Corey Davis got a lot of attention after he was targeted 10 times in just 13 routes run during the preseason, but Moore is likely to remind us that there’s another pretty good receiver on the Jets on Sunday. The rookie averaged nearly 11 catches per game at Ole Miss last year and will have the most favorable CB matchup in the opener. Davis should have success against heralded rookie Jaycee Horn, but there should be plenty of room for Moore to thrive against a defense that allows a lot of short and intermediate completions. I like Moore to top 75 receiving yards in his debut, and a touchdown would be a nice cherry on top.

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 1: vs. Den.): Look, I don’t like writing Toney’s name here any more than you like reading it here. The Giants reached for him in the first round of the NFL Draft, and he missed time early in camp and didn’t really stand out until recently. Despite that, the Giants pass-catcher situation for week one is still very much in flux. Kenny Golladay, Evan Engram, and Kyle Rudolph all missed time with injury recently, and the Giants don’t want to let Saquon fully loose in the opener either. Engram has been ruled out for week one, and while Golladay and Rudolph are both set to play it remains to be seen how the targets will shake out. This isn’t an easy matchup. The Broncos ranked 11^th in pass defense DVOA last season, and then went out this offseason and added standout cornerbacks Ronald Darby, Kyle Fuller, and rookie Patrick Surtain II. Toney is still a threat to take any touch to the house. If he gets a handful of catches and breaks one for a long TD, he’s going to be a big value at his minimum price tag on DraftKings. Pay attention to any news about how the Giants intend to use their pass catchers in Week 1 if you’re considering using Toney.

WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 1: vs. LAC): Brown gets a big opportunity in week 1 after Curtis Samuel pulled up lame with a hamstring issue at practice Wednesday. Brown should slide into a starting spot opposite Terry McLaurin against the Chargers in the opener. The matchup isn’t an ideal one for him. Brown excelled down the field in his college career at North Carolina, averaging 20+ yards per catch in each of his last two college seasons. While that pairs well with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, it doesn’t pair well with the matchup against Los Angeles. Only 5 teams allowed fewer 20+ yard receptions than the Chargers last season. The Chargers did lose starting corner Casey Hayward in free agency, but they also get Derwin James back for 2021 after the standout safety missed all of last season. There are also plenty of mouths to feed in this offense with McLaurin, Logan Thomas, Antonio Gibson, JD McKissic and Adam Humphries all around as well. It’s still difficult to completely fade Dyami at his minimum price tag on DraftKings given his big-play potential and his gunslinger QB. If you have the roster space he’s worth a stash in season-long leagues on the chance that he breaks out in week 1. Curtis Samuel was moved to the injured reserve on Friday.

That’s all I’ve got for Week 1. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and make sure to do a final check before kickoff to be sure you don’t start any inactive players. I’ll be back each week to give you a rookie rundown throughout the season, but in the meantime feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions about the rookies or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.