Shawn Foss
I'm a college and professional sports nut from the Chicago area. Follow me on Twitter @Shawn_Foss
November
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve somehow made it halfway through the NFL season already, but it feels like things are just starting for the rookie crop as even more new names are emerging with strong fantasy performances. Tank Dell & CJ Stroud re-established themselves with true blow-up games, Dalton Kincaid continued his mid-season surge, Zach Charbonnet, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Demario Douglas continued to build on their strong recent play, and Keaton Mitchell announced his presence with authority in week 9.
The biggest story of the week last weekend was the rookie QB bonanza. 8 different rookie signal callers started or saw extensive action in week 9, and the results were mixed at best. CJ Stroud was spectacular, Aidan O’Connell and Will Levis played fairly well even if it didn’t show up in fantasy box scores, Jaren Hall got hurt, and Bryce Young, Tyson Bagent, Clayton Tune, and Tommy DeVito all had days they’d rather forget. Several of these guys will be back under center in week 10, so it’ll be a recurring storyline here at the Rookie Report going forward.
Week 10 presents some unique bye week challenges. Only 4 teams are off this week, but some of the truly elite fantasy producers are sidelined in week 10 with Philly, Kansas City, Miami, and the Rams taking the week off. There will likely be several names discussed below that can help you find a fill-in this week if you need one, so let’s dive in.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Let’s talk about week 10:
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 10: @Cin.): Who are we kidding? I don’t think I could convince you to put Stroud back on the bench if I tried after he put up 470 yards and 5 TDs against the Bucs on Sunday. You’re crazy if you expect anything close to that kind of production this week, but the game script should keep Stroud throwing plenty in Cincy. The Texans are a touchdown underdog against a Bengals’ defense that has allowed 949 passing yards in their last 3 games. Prior to his explosion last weekend, Stroud had fallen short of 250 passing yards in 3 straight games, but a lot of that was due to low passing volume, which likely won’t be a problem in Cincinnati. With all of Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jalen Hurts sitting this week with byes, Stroud feels like a top-8 QB option against the Bengals.
TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 10: vs. Den.): Kincaid has taken the fantasy world by storm in the last 3 weeks, scoring at least 15 PPR points in each game despite scoring only 1 TD in that span. This week he faces a Denver defense that has allowed the 2nd-most TE points per game and ranks 26th in FTN’s pass defense DVOA on throws to tight ends. Star corner Patrick Surtain Jr. should be matched up with Stefon Diggs most of the night, so don’t be surprised if a few more targets go to Kincaid, Gabe Davis, and Khalil Shakir than usual. Kincaid should be viewed as a high-end TE1 option this week.
TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 10: @LAC): I had a hard time deciding whether to list Kincaid or LaPorta as the better option this week. Sammy Ballgame has a favorable matchup as well, facing a Chargers’ defense that has allowed the 6th-most tight end points per game. I can’t say that LaPorta has scored 15+ PPR points in each of the last 3 games like Kincaid has, but his 28 targets in that span are actually 2 more than Kincaid has seen in his 3-game breakout. LaPorta just hasn’t been earning quite as many yards per target as the Buffalo standout, and the Chargers don’t have a lockdown corner who can limit Amon-Ra St. Brown and direct targets elsewhere. LaPorta should still be a top-8 TE option this week. I just like Kincaid a little bit more for week 10.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
QB Will Levis, TEN (Wk. 10: @TB): I wouldn’t advocate for starting Levis over a slam dunk top-10 QB this week, but with elite options like Mahomes, Tua, Hurts and Stafford on byes, Levis should be a strong option if you need a fill-in starter, and should make for a solid QB2 in superflex leagues. After his 4-TD outburst in his debut, Levis was not as impressive in his encore performance against Pittsburgh. He failed to throw a TD pass and finished as the QB21 for the week, but he gets a much rosier matchup this weekend against the defense CJ Stroud lit up for 5 scores last Sunday. Tampa Bay has been absolutely shredded by opposing passers, coughing up 296 passing yards per week and allowing the 2nd-most QB points per game. The only QBs they’ve held below 250 passing yards were Justin Fields in week 2, and Derek Carr battling an injured shoulder in week 4. Three out of four QBs they’ve faced since their bye have thrown for 320+ yards and multiple TDs. Levis will still go through some rookie growing pains, but this feels like a week where he should look impressive. 250 yards and 2 TDs are a very possible outcome here.
RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 10: @Ari.): For all of the uproar over how poorly Arthur Smith uses his best weapons, I’ve still been pretty comfortable treating Bijan Robinson as a safe weekly RB2 each week. The headache game was a blip on the radar, but what we’ve seen the last two weeks with Taylor Heinicke at QB has me concerned. We could live with Bijan not getting many goal-line carries when he was piling up points in the passing game, but he and Heinicke just haven’t been on the same page in that department. With Desmond Ridder at QB, Bijan caught 26-of-32 targets and averaged 9.5 PPR points per game just from receiving production (not counting the headache game). With Heinicke under center, he’s caught just 2 of 9 targets for 8 yards and averaged merely 10 total PPR points per game. His status as even a weekly RB2 option is on shaky ground if that receiving efficiency doesn’t improve. Luckily, this week’s matchup feels like one where he should put up plenty of rushing production against an Arizona defense that ranks 31st in run defense DVOA and allows the 3rd-most RB points per game. This feels like a get-right spot for the talented rookie, and I’d trust him one more time as an RB2. Even if he puts up a big game this week, it doesn’t mean all is right in the world of Bijan. That lack of receiving production will be a problem in tougher matchups if it doesn’t improve.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 10: @LAC): David Montgomery is expected to return from injury this week, but over the last couple of games without him, Dan Campbell has seen the light on Jahmyr Gibbs and there’s no putting that toothpaste back in the tube. Earlier this week Campbell said “He’s gonna get his fair share now, we know what he can be and he’s growing. It’ll be a little bit by committee, and make sure we get those guys touches. Gibbs will get his touches.” Campbell has typically been a straight shooter when making comments like these. In the two full games Monty and Gibbs have played together this season, Montgomery has out-snapped the rookie 105-to-47. Don’t expect those numbers to reverse going forward, but they should be much closer to even. This week, Gibbs faces the Chargers, who allow the 13th-most RB points per game and rank 20th in run defense DVOA. They also allow the 2nd-most RB receptions and RB receiving yards per game. Gibbs won’t be the clear-cut top-10 RB play that he was in his last couple of games, but he should be a safe RB2 this week even if he’s splitting the workload with Montgomery.
RB Emari Demercado, ARI (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): Before I dive in on Demercado, I want to make sure to mention there are a lot of injury contingencies to this recommendation. James Conner is practicing this week and has a chance to get activated from IR ahead of this game. Demercado himself was inactive in week 9 and not practicing as of Wednesday due to a toe injury. IF Demercado is active, and IF Conner is not able to return, I like Emari as a flex play this week. Demercado has finished as a top-30 back in 3 of the last 4 games he was active, and Atlanta has given up 12+ fantasy points to an opposing running back in each of their last 4 games. The return of Kyler Murray should lead to Arizona being able to score more points, and that gives Demercado more TD upside. Keep an eye on the injury report here if you’re planning to start the rookie. Arizona doesn’t play until the late afternoon on Sunday, so make sure you have a pivot option ready just in case Conner is active or Demercado isn’t.
WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 10: @Cin.): Dell was the biggest beneficiary of CJ Stoud’s scintillating performance last weekend, racking up a 6-114-2 line on 11 targets and finishing as the WR1 for the week. Typically, it’s been hard to tell on a week-to-week basis if it’ll be Dell or Nico Collins who will have the bigger week, but there may be enough volume for both against the Bengals on Sunday. Cincy is favored by a touchdown, and there’s a good chance the Texans will have to throw a bunch to keep pace with a red-hot Joe Burrow. CJ Stroud has attempted 40+ passes in a game 3 times this year. Collins and Dell have each totaled 25 targets in those games (8.3 per game). I think it’s likely that Stroud will throw 40+ times again this week. I’d treat both Dell and Collins as upside WR3 options this weekend.
WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 10: vs. NO): Figuring out what to do with Addison this week is a tricky proposition. The matchup is not ideal as the Saints allow the 11th-fewest WR points per game and rank 4th in pass defense DVOA on throws to opposing #1 wide receivers, and Josh Dobbs isn’t as effective a passer as Kirk Cousins no matter how impressive he was last weekend. With that said, the Vikings are going to have to make an effort to get the ball to Addison. He had a 20.7% target share from Dobbs last week, and I’d be surprised if he’s below 20% this week, Dobbs has attempted 30+ passes in all but one game he’s played this season. I don’t expect that mark to change this week. One positive note for Addison – the Saints haven’t been nearly as aggressive as usual about having Marshon Lattimore shadow the opposing team’s #1 receiver this year, so the rookie should see a mix of New Orleans’ different cornerbacks. The Saints also play man-to-man coverage at the 4th-highest rate in the league, and Addison ranks 21st among WRs in fantasy points per target against man coverage. I wouldn’t count on a big ceiling here from Addison in a tough matchup, but volume should get him to a useful WR3 floor.
WR Demario Douglas, NE (Wk. 10: vs. Ind.): Douglas has emerged as the only New England receiver worth fantasy consideration right now, and I like his chances at turning in a WR3-level performance against a middling Colts’ pass defense. Indy has allowed the 17th-most WR points per game and ranks 14th in pass defense DVOA, but more importantly, they play zone coverage at the highest rate of any team in the league. Douglas is 25th among all wide receivers in PPF receiving grade against zone coverage, and 19th in yards per route run against it. He’s totaled 20 targets in the last 3 weeks and finished as a top-30 PPR receiver in two of them. I’d expect more of the same here. Something in the range of 5-60 with a possible TD feels like a reasonable expectation for Pop Douglas this weekend.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 10: @Chi.): Bryce’s transition to the NFL has been anything but smooth thus far, but Thursday night’s contest with the Bears has a chance to be a get-right spot for the former Heisman winner. No team in the league has allowed more QB points per game than the Bears, and Chicago ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA. If Young had shown any ceiling to this point, I might like him as a top-12 option this week, but Bryce has yet to throw for 250 yards in a game and has posted just 1 multi-TD performance. The most troubling stats for Young are that he ranks 31st of 32 QBs in intended air yards per pass attempt, and according to Next Gen Stats ranks 24th out of 36 qualified QBs in time to throw. Put more simply, he’s holding on to the ball too long, and still not throwing it downfield. The short passes could spell success against a Chicago defense that ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA on short throws, but I can’t recommend Bryce as anything more than a mid-range QB2 even in this great matchup given the results so far.
QB Tyson Bagent, CHI (Wk. 10: vs. Car.): All signs point to Bagent making his third start on Thursday night. The Bears have tried to be conservative with the game plan to protect Bagent when they can, but game script has caused them to be pass-heavier than they’d like the last two weeks, and it’s resulted in 5 INTs for Bagent against the Chargers and Saints. Things should be cleaner this week against Carolina in a game the Bears are actually favored to win. They should be able to lean on the running game against a Panther defense that is much worse against the run than the pass, and hopefully that cuts down on the turnovers. I expect low passing volume from Bagent in this game, and anything over 200 passing yards would be a mild surprise. He flashed some rushing upside last week, tallying 70 yards on the ground on 8 carries in New Orleans, but the Panthers rarely play man-to-man defense (2nd-lowest man coverage rate in the league), which is typically when QBs find the best scrambling opportunities. I wouldn’t count on much rushing production this week. That low projected passing volume without rushing production to boost it makes Bagent no more than a fill-in QB2 this week, and one that can actively hurt you if he doesn’t fix the turnovers.
QB Aidan O’Connell, LV (Wk. 10: vs. NYJ): O’Connell has been a fan favorite in Vegas and is coming off his most efficient passing game of the season last Sunday (8.4 yards per attempt and a 90.2 passer rating), but this week’s matchup isn’t a good one. The Jets have allowed the 9th-fewest QB points per game and rank 4th in pass defense DVOA. The Raiders have a Vegas implied point total of just 17 points in this game and I’d treat O’Connell as a fringe QB2 in this much tougher matchup. He’s averaged just 9.6 fantasy points per start this year.
RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 10: vs. Was.): Charbonnet has out-snapped Kenneth Walker III in back-to-back weeks, but at least one of those was a result of garbage time after the Ravens blew the doors off the Seahawks last weekend. Walker still led Seattle in rushing attempts in both of those games and Charbs has totaled just 10.7 PPR points in them. This week’s matchup isn’t good or bad. The Commanders have allowed the 17th-most RB points per game, but they’re much weaker against the pass than the run. Charbonnet is a good enough back that he could turn limited opportunities into a useful fantasy day, but it just hasn’t happened much this year. He’s only topped 6 PPR points once this season. I’d treat him as an RB4 option this week.
RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 10: vs. Car.): In two games since his return from a concussion, Johnson has totaled just 8 carries and 5 targets, and he got less work in week 9 than he did in week 8. We’ve heard all season about Roschon eventually taking the lead in this backfield, and it just hasn’t come to fruition. The Bears should be able to run the ball this week against a Carolina team that ranks dead last in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 2nd-most RB points per game. D’Onta Foreman handled 74% of the team rushing attempts last week. If Johnson can cut into that number on Thursday, he’s got RB3 upside in a great matchup, but the potential return of Khalil Herbert is also working against Roschon this week. Herbert has been designated to return from IR and is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game. If Herbert plays, there’s no way you can count on Johnson. He’s a volatile RB4 if Herbert isn’t quite ready.
Update: Herbert was not activated for this week.
RB Keaton Mitchell, BAL (Wk. 10: vs. Cle.): Mitchell came out of nowhere last week to post a De’Von Achane-like performance against the Seahawks, racking up 138 yards and a touchdown on just 9 carries. A lot of that production came in garbage time in a blowout win, but he did get on the field for a drive when the game was still just 7-0, and he tallied 4 carries for 37 yards on that drive. He finished the day with just two carries that went for less than 5 yards. OC Todd Monken has said this week that Mitchell’s performance has earned him more playing time going forward, and I think it’s likely he’ll supplant Justice Hill as the complement to Gus Edwards. Hill has averaged 9 touches per game this season, and Mitchell may see right around that workload in the coming weeks. I’m not ready to plug him into lineups this weekend against a Cleveland defense that ranks 1st in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 4th-fewest RB points per game, but he should not be sitting on waiver wires right now. He’s an upside RB4 this week and has breakout potential down the stretch.
RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 10: @Buf.): Javonte Williams is close to full strength and played over 50% of the offensive snaps in Denver’s last two games in weeks 7 & 8. McLaughlin, meanwhile, logged his lowest snaps shares since the first two weeks of the season in those games. They’re still looking to get the ball into his hands when he’s on the field – McLaughlin handled 12 touches on just 17 snaps in those contests – but it’s hard to post useful stat lines on such limited playing time. McLaughlin has been one of the most efficient backs in the league on a per touch basis, racking up 7.44 yards per touch in his last 5 games, and the Bills allow the 3rd-most yards per rush in the league. The outlook for McLaughlin is similar to what it’s been in his last couple of games. He should see 6-8 touches, and that could mean 40-50 yards from scrimmage. It’s risky to count on him to do more than that or get into the end zone.
RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 10: @TB): Spears continues to play 50%+ of the snaps most weeks, but his production has gone in the wrong direction since Will Levis took over at QB. Spears tallied 55+ scrimmage yards in 4 of Ryan Tannehill’s last 5 starts this season. He’s totaled just 58 yards in Levis’ two starts combined. The issue has been his receiving output. He’s averaged 5.5 yards per target in Tannehill starts, and just 1.3 per target with Levis at the helm, totaling 7 catches for 13 yards on 10 targets. The target number is good to see, but that efficiency is a problem. This week’s matchup does Tyjae no favors. The Bucs have allowed the 2nd-fewest RB points per game and rank 1st in pass defense DVOA on throws to backs. I’d treat him as a dicey RB3/4 option this week.
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (Wk. 10: vs. Was.): If you look at Smith-Njigba’s game log, you’ll see an interesting pattern emerge in his target totals. For all 8 games he’s played, he’s alternated between games with less than 6 targets and games with 6+ targets. The overall target volume has been fairly consistent, with no more than 7 and no fewer than 3 targets in any game, but in every odd-numbered game he’s earned 3, 4, or 5 targets, and in every even-numbered game he’s earned 6 or 7. It’s likely just a coincidence, but I thought it was an oddity worth mentioning. He’s due for fewer than 6 targets this week by that pattern. The trend I’m more interested in from his game log is his yards per target. His production was plagued early in the season by a miniscule aDOT leading to just 62 yards in the first 4 games on a paltry 3.1 yards per target. That changed starting with the Cincinnati game last month, and JSN has now logged at least 9 yards per target in 4 straight games and found the end zone in two of them. He’s the WR33 in PPR points per game over the last 4 weeks and could perform close to that level again facing a Washington defense that allows the 3rd-most WR points per game. His usage isn’t going to lend itself to the kinds of big yardage games we’ve seen from Tank Dell and Jordan Addison, but JSN is fine as a back-end WR3 for PPR leagues this week.
WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 10: vs. Cle.): Flowers appears to have hit a rookie wall in the last two weeks. He posted 50+ yards from scrimmage in each of his first 7 professional games, and he’s totaled just 30 yards in the last 2 weeks combined. In week 8 he still earned 7 targets and his catch total kept him from being a complete dud in your lineup, but week 9 was a different story. The Ravens had a field day running the ball and played comfortably ahead all game in a 34-point drubbing of Seattle. Flowers was targeted just once in that game on 33 team passing attempts. Under normal circumstances, I’d expect the Ravens to make a point to get Flowers more involved this week in a ‘squeaky wheel’ kind of game, but the matchup this week doesn’t bode well for that. The Browns allow the 2nd-fewest WR points per game and rank 1st in pass defense DVOA, and their scheme is a bad matchup for Flowers. Zay struggles against press man coverage. He’s put up close to 2 yards per route run against zone coverage this season, but under 1 yard per route run against man, and no team in the league plays more man-to-man defense than the Browns. You could roll the dice on Flowers’ talent winning out here. He’s an explosive player who could succeed in a bad matchup, but I’d treat him as a dicey WR3 option in week 10.
WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 10: @NE): Downs isn’t practicing this week as of Thursday, and he appears to be on the wrong side of questionable with a knee injury. If he’s able to play this week, it’s not a bad spot to fire him up. Downs had scored 13+ PPR points in 4 straight games prior to getting hurt early against Carolina last Sunday, and the Patriots have allowed the 7th-most WR points per game. Keep tabs on his health status as the week wears on. If he’s good to go, he’s a borderline WR3 option against a New England defense that has allowed 5 different receivers to put up 12+ PPR points in the last 3 games.
WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): Wilson has a few things working in his favor this week – The Cardinals get Kyler Murray back at QB which should open up the passing game, and the Falcons play zone defense at a higher rate than league average. Wilson has played his best football against zone, with 2.17 yards per route run and a 75.5 receiving grade from PFF against zone coverage, both team-high marks by a comfortable margin. Atlanta ranks just 28th in pass defense DVOA, so there is upside here for Wilson, but I’m not sure just how high the ceiling is. The rookie has topped 11 PPR points just once all season. You could take a chance on him if you want, but I’d view him as more of a floor play WR4 type this week, especially as Kyler shakes the rust off after not playing for a year.
WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (Wk. 10: vs. Det.): Things have just not come together for Johston the way fantasy managers hoped they would. Mike Williams and Johua Palmer's injuries seemed to open up a golden opportunity for QJ to establish himself, but he’s totaled just 7-64 on 9 targets in the last two games. Another 5-6 targets seem likely this week against Detroit, but the Lions rank 8th in pass defense DVOA and we haven’t seen that Johnston can succeed in good matchups yet, let alone in bad ones like he faces this week. He’s a WR5 option.
WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 10: @Chi.): Mingo followed up his best fantasy game of the season in week 8 with his worst in week 9. He totaled just 1 catch for 5 yards on 4 targets against a middling Colts’ pass defense. The matchup with the Bears isn’t a daunting one – the Bears rank 30th in pass defense DVOA – but Mingo has scored 6+ PPR points just twice all season. There’s no reason to expect a breakout game here. I’d rather see Mingo go for 6-80 on my bench than for 3-25 in my lineup.
TE Luke Musgrave, GB (Wk. 10: @Pit.): Musgrave took advantage of the Rams' shoddy defense against tight ends last Sunday and logged his best fantasy game of the season. He finished as the TE7 for the week, but I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance in Pittsburgh this weekend. The Rams are one of the worst defenses in the league against tight ends, and the Steelers are one of the best. Pittsburgh has allowed the 4th-fewest TE points per game and ranks 1st in pass defense DVOA on throws to opposing tight ends. In the 3 games prior to last weekend’s outburst against the Rams, Musgrave had averaged just under 6.5 PPR points per game. I’d rank him outside the top 12 tight ends this week in a much tougher matchup.
TE Michael Mayer, LV (Wk. 10: vs. NYJ): Through two-plus games of action with Aidan O’Connell under center for the Raiders, tight ends have managed just an 8% target share with the rookie QB on the field (6 out of 75 targets). Mayer was in a route on 60% of O’Connell’s dropbacks last Sunday, but he was targeted just twice and finished the game with 11 yards. This week’s matchup looks favorable on paper. The Jets allow the fewest WR points per game and allow the 11th-most points per game to the tight end position. This is a week where Mayer should score above his norm, but that norm has been set pretty low with O’Connell at QB. It’ll be a pleasant surprise if he hits 10 PPR points this week. I’d view him as a mid-range TE2 at best for week 10.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Tommy DeVito, NYG (Wk. 10: @Dal.): DeVito was forced into action due to injury for the 2nd straight week last Sunday, and this time Daboll actually let him throw the ball a bit, but only after they fell into a deep hole on the scoreboard. The score was 7-0 when DeVito entered the game, and 17 of his 20 pass attempts for the day came after the Giants had fallen behind 27-0. He’s slated to start in week 10, but it has a chance to be an ugly game against a dangerous Dallas defense. The Cowboys rank 6th in pass defense DVOA, and Vegas views the Giants as a whopping 16.5-point underdog with a pathetic implied point total of just 11 points. I expect the Giants to try to lean on the run game until they can’t due to the scoreboard, but I don’t expect a ton of success for DeVito once he’s forced to throw. This could turn into a snowball-rolling-downhill kind of game where bad turns into worse for the Giants. The Cowboys have won 4 games by 20+ points this season (including a 40-0 win over these Giants in week 1), and this one could certainly be their 5th. DeVito should be viewed as a “break glass in case of emergency” option in superflex leagues, and nothing more than that.
QB Clayton Tune, ARI (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): In case you missed the news, everything is pointing to Kyler Murray starting for the Cards at QB this week. There’s still a chance that Murray suffers a setback prior to the game and Tune gets one more start, and if that happens you could make do with Tune as a fringe QB2. Atlanta is a much more favorable matchup than the Browns were last weekend, but I wouldn’t be eager to fire up Tune after he put up just 1.12 fantasy points last week in Cleveland.
QB Jaren Hall, MIN (Wk. 10: vs. NO): Hall suffered a concussion last weekend and watched from the sideline as Josh Dobbs had one of the most miraculous performances in league history, leading the Vikings back from behind despite not knowing the playbook or taking a single practice rep with the team after being traded for mid-week. Even if Hall gets cleared for this week, there’s no way he gets the starting nod over Dobbs. Even if he does start, the Saints rank 9th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 11th-fewest QB points per game. It’s not a great matchup.
RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 10: @Min.): Miller has logged just 9 touches in the last 4 games and continues to struggle to find opportunities. He did turn a reception last weekend into a 31-yard gain. It was his second 30+ yard catch of the season on just 10 total targets, but the usage just hasn’t been there since Taysom Hill’s breakout began about a month ago. The Vikings have allowed the 7th-fewest RB points per game, and you can’t count on more than just a couple of touches against that defense.
RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 10: vs. SF): Here are Tank Bigsby’s touch totals in his last 6 games played – 3, 2, 4, 3, 3, 2. He hasn’t totaled more than 10 scrimmage yards in any of those games, and he’s scored just 1 TD in that span. There’s no reason to expect a change here.
RB DeWayne McBride, MIN (Wk. 10: vs. NO): Cam Akers went down with a torn Achilles last weekend, ending his season, so it’s possible McBride will be activated from the practice squad. You could pick him up in deeper dynasty leagues if you want to throw a dart, but I don’t feel great about his upside for the rest of the season. McBride was beaten out for the RB2 job by Ty Chandler in training camp, so I’d expect McBride to be 3rd in line behind Chandler and Alexander Mattison for carries. He might not even be active on game day since Kene Nwangwu is a better special teams player than McBride. It’ll be a win for McBride if he’s active for the game and plays a few offensive snaps this week.
WR Jake Bobo, SEA (Wk. 10: vs. Was.): Bobo logged his lowest route participation rate of the season last weekend and wasn’t targeted while Jaxon Smith-Njigba logged his highest and earned 7 targets. This matchup is a great one for wide receivers – the Commanders have allowed the 3rd-most WR points per game and rank 29th in pass defense DVOA, but Bobo just isn’t playing enough that you can count on him in any lineups. It wouldn’t shock me if he managed to get in the end zone and put up 10 points or so on just a couple of targets, but that’s pretty much the ceiling and it's not likely.
WR Marvin Mims, Jr., DEN (Wk. 10: @Buf.): Mims has slowly started to see his playing time tick upward – he hit a 40% route participation rate for the first time in week 7, and then he did it again in week 8, but his targets have all but vanished as Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy has stepped up in this offense. Mims has been targeted just twice on 27 routes in the last two games. Is there a chance he gets deep for a big play against the Bills? Sure, they rank just 25th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws, but there’s no way you can rely on that. Mims has totaled just 4 receiving yards (and negative-7 from scrimmage) in his last 4 games.
WR Tre Tucker, LV (Wk. 10: vs. NYJ): Tucker had a nice performance last Sunday on limited opportunities, putting up 2 catches for 52 yards on 3 targets and adding a 4-yard rush for good measure, but he logged a route participation rate of just 36% and essentially shared the WR3 role with Hunter Renfrow and DeAndre Carter. This week he faces off with the Jets, who allow the fewest WR points per game and rank 4th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. This isn’t a great week to bet on Tucker even if his playing time ticks upward.
WR Tyler Scott, CHI (Wk. 10: vs. Car.): Scott has logged a 60% or higher route participation rate in 3 straight games, but he’s totaled just 6.9 PPR points in that span on 8 targets and 3 rushing attempts. There’s no reason to expect much of a jump in those target numbers against a Carolina defense that has faced an average of 26 pass attempts per game in their past 5 games. The way to attack the Panthers is on the ground, and Scott is low in the target pecking order for what should be a low passing volume contest.
WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 10: @Dal.): Hyatt was starting to break out before Tyrod Taylor suffered a rib injury in week 8, and Daniel Jones’ ACL injury in week 9 is yet another setback for him. He totaled just 2 catches for 19 yards on 5 targets last weekend in a favorable matchup with the Raiders. I wouldn’t count on much more than that this week with Tommy DeVito under center in a tougher matchup with the Cowboys. Dallas ranks 6th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 4th-fewest WR points per game.
WR Cedric Tillman, CLE (Wk. 10: @Bal.): Tillman’s playing time in week 9 went according to plan with Donovan Peoples-Jones shipped off to Detroit. He logged a 71% route participation rate against Arizona as the team’s clear WR3, but he was targeted just once and tallied only 3 yards. I want to argue that the issue was the lopsided final score limiting passing volume, but that’s just not the case. The Browns still threw the ball 30 times despite rolling to a 27-0 win. I do think the ball will come Tillman’s way a couple more times this week in what should be a much more competitive game with the Ravens, but it’s not a great matchup to do big damage on just a few targets. Baltimore ranks 2nd in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 6th-fewest WR points per game.
TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL (Wk. 10: vs. NYG): Schoonmaker came tantalizingly close to scoring a 4th down TD against the Eagles last Sunday, but replay review showed he was down just short of the goal line, and it was his only target of the game. He’s earned more than 1 target in a game just once all season.
Rookies on byes in Week 10: RBs De’Von Achane & Christopher Brooks, MIA, RB Zach Evans, LAR, WR Puka Nacua, LAR, WR Rashee Rice, KC
Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Eric Gray, NYG, RB Sean Tucker, TB, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, RB Elijah Dotson, LAC, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, WR Derius Davis, LAC, WR Dontayvion Wicks, GB, WR Xavier Gipson, NYJ, WR Rakim Jarrett, TB, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Ronnie Bell, SF, TE Darnell Washington, PIT, TE Payne Durham, TB
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL (Wk. 10: vs. NYG): Vaughn hasn’t logged a touch in more than a month, but I expect that to change this week in what should be a lopsided contest with a bad Giants’ defense. The Cowboys have won 4 games by 20+ points this season. Vaughn was a healthy scratch for one of those (against the Rams), but in the other 3 games, he averaged 7 touches per game. Dallas enters this game as a 16.5-point favorite, and a blowout win seems highly likely. The Giants rank a miserable 28th in run defense DVOA. Any opportunities against them could have positive results. I’m not sure that you can start him in season-long leagues, but Vaughn could prove to be a worthwhile bargain basement option in Showdown DFS contests, especially if he finds the end zone. Just make sure he isn’t a healthy scratch if you’re considering him.
WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 10: @Pit.): As expected, with Matthew Stafford sidelined the Packers were not forced to throw a whole lot to beat the Rams. Jordan Love attempted just 26 passes and only 3 of them went in Reed’s direction. It didn’t help Reed that the run-heavy game plan meant Dontayvion Wicks would take a bunch of his snaps. Wicks has 20 pounds on Reed and has the best PFF run blocking grade of any Green Bay receiver (77.1) while Reed has the worst (42.3). I wouldn’t expect Wicks to be on the field nearly as much against the Steelers, who are favored by 3 this week and should keep the Packers from going ultra run-heavy. Assuming Reed is back to his normal role, I’d expect somewhere in the neighborhood of 6 targets against a defense that allows the 5th-most WR points per game and ranks 25th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opponent’s WR3. It’s also worth noting that Reed has been targeted on 28.6% of his routes against man coverage, and the Steelers play man-to-man at the 6th-highest rate in the league. Reed is still just 3rd or 4th in line for targets in a low volume passing game, but this week shapes up as one where he’s got some extra upside.
WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 10: vs. Ten.): Palmer has seen his role gradually increase in recent weeks. He’s now fully vanquished Deven Thompkins for the WR3 role and has logged a route participation rate above 80% in back-to-back games. He’s also totaled 19 targets in the last 4 games. The story with the Bucs is the same every week. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are going to account for about half of the passing targets each week (though that number is slipping in recent weeks), and everyone else is fighting for the leftovers. This is a week where Palmer may feast on those leftovers. The Titans have allowed the 5th-fewest tight end points per game, and they’ve allowed the 2nd-fewest catches and 2nd-fewest receiving yards per game to opposing running backs. The vast majority of the aerial damage done to them is by wide receivers. The Titans rank 24th in pass defense DVOA, and 28th in that stat on throws to the opposing team’s WR3. This is a week where Palmer could easily see 6+ targets in a favorable matchup. He could find his way to a WR4 finish or higher.
WR Andrei Iosivas, CIN (Wk. 10: vs. Hou.): Iosivas gets a mention here because of the injury status of the Bengals’ starting receivers. Ja’Marr Chase didn’t practice Wednesday as he battles a back injury that has his status for the weekend up in the air, and Tee Higgins suffered his own hamstring injury during that Wednesday practice. If either of them misses this game, Iosivas will play a much larger role than usual. He logged a 30% route participation rate in week 5 with Higgins limited by a rib injury, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that number is higher this week if Higgins or Chase sits. The Texans have allowed just the 3rd-fewest WR points per game, but they also rank 26th in pass defense DVOA. Houston’s passing defense has really tightened up around the end zone, allowing just 7 total passing scores in their first 8 games (only 2 to wide receivers), but Joe Burrow has been on a tear lately, piling up 10 TD passes in the last 4 games. I’d bet on Burrow rather than the Houston defense. I wouldn’t expect a 20-point outburst or anything crazy here from Iosivas, but 3-to 4 receptions and a possible TD are certainly in play if one of the starters is out.
Update: Tee Higgins missed practice Thursday and is expected to miss this game.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
November
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully you enjoyed the reprieve from bye weeks and had a fruitful week 8, but we’ve got 4 teams on byes in week 9 including some every-week fantasy starters, so you may be back to searching for some lineup replacement options. As usual I’m here to help you navigate which rookies are viable for your fantasy lineup, but this week has an especially interesting wrinkle.
This week it appears there are 7 rookie QBs slated to start for their teams. With only 28 teams in action, that’s a quarter of the signal callers league wide. With CJ Stroud and Bryce Young, we know what to expect, but for the other 5, we have to ask what kind of impact they’ll have on the players around them, and which ones should you consider if you’re searching for a QB2 option? I dive into all 7 rookie QBs that are expected to start this week (and touch on an 8th rookie QB just for fun), but there’s plenty more where that came from in this week’s report.
Can we count on any rookie running back not named Bijan Robinson this week? How big of an issue are the QB situations for Puka Nacua, Jordan Addison, Michael Wilson, and Michael Mayer? Is this the week Tank Dell gets back on track? Keep reading and find out.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Let’s get into week 9:
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 9: vs. Min.): Bijan left some points on the field Sunday due to catching zero of the 5 targets that came his way, but he still had a respectable bounce-back after the headache fiasco in week 7, finding the end zone and finishing as the RB17 for the week. He was back to his usual role in the offense, and that’s a good sign moving forward. The matchup this week isn’t a great one, with the Vikings allowing the 6th-fewest RB points per game and ranking 12th in FTN’s run defense DVOA. Don’t let that scare you off. The Falcons are 4.5-point favorites with Minnesota starting rookie Jaren Hall at QB. There’s a chance Atlanta wins easily and can lean on the run game, and I wouldn’t count on Bijan catching zero passes again. Robinson has caught 4+ passes in 5 of the 7 full games he’s played. He may not be a slam dunk top-12 play this week, but at worst Bijan should be treated as a high-end RB2.
WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 9: vs. Sea.): Flowers posted his worst game of the season in week 8, finishing with just 5 catches for 19 yards on 7 targets, but the underlying usage was still strong. He was in a route on 94% of the team dropbacks and earned a 24% target share. He’s still been a top-30 PPR receiver in 5 of 8 games on the year and should be in line for a bounce back game against a Seattle defense that has allowed the 9th-most WR points per game. Week 8 was the first time Flowers was held below 50 scrimmage yards in a game this season. I don’t expect week 9 to be the 2nd. He’s a strong WR3 this week.
TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 9: @Cin.): This might sound like an overreaction to a small sample size, but the only tight ends I’d start over Kincaid this week are Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. Part of the reason I say that is because he’s helped by the tight end landscape this week - Sam LaPorta, Evan Engram, and George Kittle are all on byes, and TJ Hockenson just lost Kirk Cousins – but Kincaid has a huge role in the offense with Dawson Knox out, and he faces a great matchup this week. Kincaid was in a route on 85% of the team passing dropbacks last week and has earned 15 total targets in the last two games, and this week he faces a Bengals’ defense that has allowed the most TE points per game. Mark Andrews and George Kittle both posted top-3 finishes against this defense, Tyler Higbee recorded a top-10 game against them, and all of Harrison Bryant, Zach Ertz, and Josh Whyle found the end zone against the Bengals. Kincaid is a high floor, high ceiling option this week. Double-digit PPR points feels like a slam dunk for the rookie in this one.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 9: vs. TB): My fears about Stroud were realized last week. With the Texans favored and facing a defense that has been much worse against the run than against the pass, Stroud logged his fewest pass attempts of the season, throwing for just 140 yards and no TDs. He did score a rushing TD to salvage the day, but you were likely hoping for more than a QB23 finish for the week if you started him. This week’s matchup is a little more conducive to a better fantasy output for Stroud. The Bucs have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs and have given up an average of 309 passing yards per game in 3 games since their bye. Only Justin Fields and Derek Carr have fallen short of 250 passing yards against them for the year. This week there are a bunch of QBs who are out of action, and I like Stroud’s chances to get back up to around 35 pass attempts and get back up to a borderline top-12 finish. He’s a safe start in 2-QB formats, and at least a passable option in 1-QB leagues.
QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 9: vs. Ind.): Young hasn’t exactly been setting the fantasy world ablaze this season, but his play has notably improved in the last 3 games. In the first 3 starts of the year, Bryce averaged 168 yards per game on 7.5 yards per completion and threw 2 TDs and 2 INTs. In the last 3 games, he’s averaged 233 yards per game on 10 yards per completion with 5 TDs and 2 INTs. The Panthers took some responsibility off Young’s plate and simplified the offense, and it’s working wonders for his performance. He could take another step forward this week against a Colts’ defense that has allowed the 4th-most QB points per game and ranks 21st in pass defense DVOA. Taysom Hill’s stats last week in a non-QB role skew the points allowed average a bit, but the Colts have still allowed 15+ fantasy points to 6 of the 8 actual QBs they’ve faced, and 17+ to 5 of them. 15+ points for Bryce Young would be his 2nd best game of the year, which is what I think he’ll post in this matchup. Young may be a top-15 QB option given some of the lackluster choices available for week 9.
WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 9: @GB): I list Nacua here on the borderline mostly because of the uncertain status of Matthew Stafford for this week. Nacua seemingly had his 2nd down game in the last 3 weeks with just 3 catches for 43 yards against Dallas, but he was targeted 6 times by Stafford in the first half of that game. After Stafford exited with a thumb injury, backup Brett Rypien targeted Puka just once in the second half. If Stafford is good to go this week, Nacua should still be a fine top-20 WR option against a Green Bay defense that ranks 27th in pass defense DVOA. If Brett Rypien gets the start or if Stafford will be seriously limited, Puka becomes a risky WR3. I’d still lean toward giving him the nod in your lineups with some notable receivers on byes, but know that there is extra downside here if Stafford is out.
WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 9: @Atl.): I don’t feel 100% confident in starting Addison with Jaren Hall under center, but he’s still the team WR1 facing a defense that ranks 28th in pass defense DVOA. Hall should be looking his way regularly, and he should manage to compile his way to a fantasy relevant performance. Addison might draw shadow coverage from AJ Terrell, but that didn’t work out great for Terrell last week against DeAndre Hopkins, and he doesn’t always get a shadow assignment. Addison has been targeted 8+ times in 3 of the last 4 games and found the end zone in all 4, and the Vikings shouldn’t shy away from him against a defense that is much better against the run than the pass. I’d treat Addison as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 this week.
WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 9: @Car.): Downs is more of a floor play than a ceiling option, but that floor has been rock solid for more than a month now. Downs has averaged nearly 9 targets per game in Gardner Minshew’s 4 starts, and he’s tallied at least 13 PPR points in all 4 of those games and in 5 of his last 6 games overall. Most teams haven’t had to throw a ton against Carolina. The Panthers have allowed the 8th-fewest points per game to receivers, but they rank just a middling 14th in pass defense DVOA. Downs should be a solid PPR WR3 again this week, even in a matchup where passing volume could be lower.
WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 9: vs. Mia.): Rice’s final stat line last week of 4-56 on 5 targets wasn’t a week-winning performance, but it’s another solid game stacked by the rookie receiver in a week where his QB wasn’t at his best. His route participation rate reached 60%+ for the 2nd week in a row, and he’s now reached 50 yards and/or scored a TD in 5 of his last 6 games. The Chiefs-Dolphins game has the highest Vegas point total of the week, so KC should be throwing plenty in a game with shootout potential. The Dolphins allow the 10th-most WR points per game and rank 17th in pass defense DVOA, and Pat Mahomes should look more like himself. I’m not sure I’d count on an earth-shattering performance from Rice, but another ho-hum WR3 game feels like a reasonable expectation in this matchup.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Will Levis, TEN (Wk. 9: @Pit.): Levis put on quite a show in his NFL debut, racking up 4 TDs (3 of them on connections of more than 30 yards), and finishing as the QB6 for the week. He’s bound to be a hot waiver wire pickup in most leagues, but there’s a real possibility he comes crashing back to earth in week 9. On his throws that didn’t find the end zone, Levis was 15-for-25 for just 81 yards, and his two longest TD throws of the day were aided by an uncalled offensive pass interference and a blown coverage. Of course, a lot of QBs would have bad numbers if you took away their best plays. It’s promising that Levis is willing to uncork deep throws to his best receiver, and his TD toss to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine was unquestionably a dime. There was a lot to like, but this week’s matchup is significantly tougher. The Falcons ranked just 28th in pass defense DVOA. The Steelers rank 9th. Don’t count on another blow-up game from Levis, but he should be fine as a QB2 this week with limited QB options to choose from. The Steelers have allowed 220+ passing yards to every QB they’ve faced this year, and they’ll be without Minkah Fitzpatrick this week, so there’s still a nice floor for Levis, even if he doesn’t have the same ceiling.
RB Emari Demercado, ARI (Wk. 9: @Cle.): Demercado missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a toe injury, so his status for this weekend is up in the air, but the sledding will not be easy if he’s able to play. Running back is the one position that has had a semblance of success against the Browns’ defense this year. Cleveland is allowing merely the 10th-fewest RB points per game this season compared to being in the top-5 vs the 3 other skill positions. They’ve shown some vulnerability on the ground since the bye, allowing decent rushing days to the 49ers, Colts, and Seahawks in the 3 games since, but they still rank 3rd in run defense DVOA, and the Cards aren’t quite as effective on the ground as those teams. This may be Demercado’s last chance to showcase what he can do before the return of James Conner, so he may have a bit of extra motivation, but the injury has me worried. Even if Demercado plays, we could see Keaontay Ingram and Damien Williams mix in more often. Arizona should lean on the run game with Clayton Tune in line to make his first start, and Demercado is at least worth consideration if you’re in a pinch but keep an eye on the injury report and make sure the toe won’t keep him sidelined. If you’re planning to start him and he misses practice again on Friday, I’d start making other plans.
RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 9: @Pit.): It’s easy to look at advanced stats for Spears and get excited about him as a player – he ranks 2nd among all running backs in forced missed tackles per touch and is the highest-graded rookie running back for the season according to PFF - but at some point, the touches have to be there. Spears has logged 10+ touches just twice in 7 games (never more than 11 in a game), and while he’s explosive enough to turn those limited touches into a good game here and there, it’s hard for you to rely on him in fantasy. He’s cracked the top-30 PPR backs 4 times this season, and the top-10 once. The matchup this week isn’t a bad one. The Steelers have allowed the 8th-most points per game to opposing backs and rank 14th in run defense DVOA. The question is how much damage can Spears do against them on 8-10 touches? He has some appeal as a fringe RB3 (slightly higher than that in PPR), but the chances that he drastically outperforms that ranking are not good. He logged his 2nd-lowest snap share of the season in Levis’ first start at QB.
RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 9: @Bal.): Week 9 was a banner week for Charbonnet. It was the first time all season that he out-snapped Kenneth Walker III, and the first time all year that he finished as a top-30 PPR back. Pete Carroll rode the hot hand against the Browns, and Charbs had the hot hand. He ran twice as many routes as a receiver as Walker as well – just the 2nd time he’s run more routes than Walker all season. That usage is great to see, but it remains to be seen if it was just a blip, or if it will continue going forward. Even if he sees similar usage this week, the Ravens are a tough test. Baltimore has allowed the 15th-fewest RB points per game, which doesn’t sound too intimidating, but they also rank 5th in run defense DVOA. It’ll likely take at least 1 TD for Charbonnet to have a game where you’re happy you started him, and the Ravens have allowed just 3 RB scores for the season. Only 1 running back this year hit double-digit fantasy points against the Ravens without scoring a TD (Joe Mixon). You could start Charbonnet if you’re in a tight spot this week, but there’s not a lot of ceiling to chase.
RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 9: @NO): Roschon finally returned from his concussion last weekend and led the Bears’ backfield in snaps, but he still found himself mired in a 3-way committee with D’Onta Foreman and Darrynton Evans. Johnson finished the game with 6.1 PPR points on 6 carries and 4 targets, and while I expect that role to grow going forward, the matchup this week is tougher and Khalil Herbert’s eventual return looms in the not-too-distant future. The matchup with the Saints is especially tough on Roschon. Johnson is the Bears’ back who is most active in the passing game, and the Saints rank 1st in pass defense DVOA on throws to opposing backs and have allowed the 4th-fewest RB points per game. The Saints haven’t allowed a running back to put up 25 or more receiving yards against them since week 2. I don’t expect Roschon’s share of the rushing work to increase enough this week to make him a viable RB3 in a tough matchup. I’d keep him sidelined in this one.
WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 9: vs. TB): Dell’s breakout games in weeks 2 and 3 are starting to feel like distant objects in the rearview mirror at this point. The rookie tallied 20.2 and 25.5 PPR points in those two games and has totaled just 18.3 PPR points since. He did miss some time with injury, but that’s still 2 and a half games worth of production. This week seems like as good a week as any to get back on track. The Texans will be without Robert Woods, and Tampa Bay allows the 9th-most WR points per game, but Woods also missed last week’s game when Dell was out-targeted by Noah Brown. There’s still enough upside here to treat Dell as a WR4 this week, but be aware that he’s a volatile option.
WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 9: vs. LAR): The Packers passing game has mostly been messy this season, with Jordan Love looking unlikely to be the long-term answer for the franchise at QB, but that hasn’t stopped Jayden Reed from putting up a 30+ yard catch and/or a TD in 6 out of 7 games this season. He’s quietly been the WR48 in points per game despite only earning 6+ targets 3 times, and there’s no reason he can’t finish right around that WR48 mark again this week. The Rams have only allowed the 9th-fewest WR points per game, but they also rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA. If the Packers are forced to throw the ball, Reed should have enough upside to warrant real WR4 consideration. That likely only happens if Matthew Stafford starts this game. If Stafford sits and it’s Brett Rypien under center, Green Bay may be able to play from in front and lean on the run game, which would limit Reed’s ceiling. Pay attention to Stafford’s status if you’re considering Reed in a lineup.
WRs Jaxon Smith-Njigba & Jake Bobo, SEA (Wk. 9: @Bal.): JSN scored a TD for the second week in a row last Sunday against the Browns, but his playing time and usage took a hit with the return of DK Metcalf. Smith-Njigba logged his lowest route participation rate since week 3 (64%), and more concerning was his aDOT of less than half a yard. He’s had an aDOT below 6 yards in 5 games this season and averaged just under 20 yards per game in those contests. In the 2 games where his aDOT has been higher than 6 yards, he's averaged just over 55 yards per game. The combination of fewer routes and shorter targets is bad news when you’re facing a defense that ranks 1st in pass defense DVOA and allows the 5th-fewest WR points per game. Jake Bobo scored a TD as well last weekend, but his route participation rate was back under 30% with Metcalf back. He may have a splash week every now and then, but he’s not on the field enough to trust in lineups, especially against such a tough defense.
WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 9: @Cle.): Wilson posted his 5th game of 50+ yards of the season last Sunday against the Ravens, but Arizona’s QB switch this week could be a speed bump for the rookie, assuming he’s even on the field. Like teammate Emari Demercado, Wilson missed practice on both Wednesday and Thursday and might not be able to suit up on Sunday. He’d built a decent rapport with Joshua Dobbs, but the Cardinals seem ready to hand the keys to Clayton Tune this week in an unforgiving matchup with the Browns. Cleveland has allowed the 4th-fewest WR points per game, and Wilson has reached 11+ PPR points just once all season. Wilson hasn’t shown a high ceiling, and if he plays the downside in this matchup is just too great to trust Wilson with a rookie QB making his first start.
WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 9: @LV): Daniel Jones’ return to the lineup makes Hyatt a bit too risky to trust this week. Jones has nearly twice as many pass attempts as Tyrod Taylor this season, but 64% of Hyatt’s targets this season have come from Tyrod. His role had taken a big step forward in Taylor’s two starts, and it remains to be seen if that increased usage will continue with Jones back at QB. The Raiders allow the 6th-fewest WR points per game, and they rank 13th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. The less-than-ideal matchup and questionable role with Jones back means this is not a spot where I’d want to use Hyatt.
WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (Wk. 9: @NYJ): Johnston posted his best game of the season last week against the Bears, setting season highs in targets (6), receptions (5), and receiving yards (50), but I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance this week against the Jets. Only 3 receivers this season have caught for more than 50 yards or tallied 10+ fantasy points against the Jets – Stefon Diggs, AJ Brown, and CeeDee Lamb. If you think Johnston should be mentioned in the same breath as those guys, then feel free to take your chances. I’m not sure he’s a top-50 option this week.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Tyson Bagent, CHI (Wk. 9: @NO): Bagent has made two starts so far this season. He finished those games as QB21 and QB22 despite facing two abysmal defenses in the Raiders and Chargers. The Chargers allowed 21+ fantasy points to 5 of the first 6 QBs they faced, but Bagent managed just 13.2 fantasy points against them and threw 2 interceptions last weekend. If Bagent has been finishing as a fringe QB2 in plus matchups, what’s he going to do against a good defense this weekend? The Saints have allowed the 6th-fewest QB points per game and rank 8th in pass defense DVOA. I have zero faith that Bagent will get back on track in a tougher matchup this week. I’d view him as a bottom-2 QB option among the 28 guys starting in week 9.
QB Clayton Tune, ARI (Wk. 9: @Cle.): It was a surprise this week when the Cardinals announced immediately after their loss to the Ravens that Joshua Dobbs would start in week 9, and then reversed course just a day later and said that they weren’t sure who would start, but that Dobbs was benched, and it wouldn’t be him. The confusion was cleared up on Tuesday when the Cards dealt Dobbs to the Minnesota Vikings. With Kyler Murray close to a return, the Cardinals were smart to get draft capital back for Dobbs, but Murray likely won’t be quite ready to start this weekend. That means Tune will get thrown to the wolves against Myles Garrett and the Browns’ defense. Cleveland ranks 2nd in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 5th-fewest QB points per game, allowing less than a dozen points to 4 of the 7 QBs they’ve faced this year. Tune is a gamer, but I wouldn’t expect any heroics in this brutal matchup. The Cardinals have a Vegas implied point total of just 14.75 points, one of the lowest totals for any team this season. There are 28 starting QBs this week, and I’d rank Tune in the bottom-2 of all of them along with Tyson Bagent.
QB Tommy DeVito, NYG (Wk. 9: @LV): Daniel Jones is reportedly going to be able to return this week and start against the Raiders, but if for some reason those reports are wrong, DeVito shouldn’t be anywhere near your starting lineups. Here’s a quick recap of DeVito’s NFL action last weekend: He entered the game late in the first half after Tyrod Taylor was injured. Brian Daboll called 7 dropbacks in his first 10 plays as the Giants tried to get points before the half. Those dropbacks resulted in 2 scrambles for 8 yards, 2 sacks, and 3 incompletions. In the 2nd half, Daboll called 34 designed run plays and just 2 pass plays. He finally let DeVito throw again in overtime, and the results were 2 completions on 3 attempts for negative-1 yard. The Jets are a very good defense, and the weather was bad, but it’s very difficult to play QB for more than half of a football game and throw for negative passing yards (DeVito’s total passing line was 2-for-7 for negative-1 yard). It was clear that the Giants didn’t trust DeVito to throw the ball, and if they’re forced to start him again this week, you shouldn’t trust him either. If stuck without a QB2 in a superflex league, I would start a running back, receiver, or tight end rather than roll with DeVito.
RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 9: vs. Chi.): The Saints talked about getting Miller and Jamaal Williams more involved after Alvin Kamara played virtually all the snaps against the Jaguars in week 7, and for Miller that meant 3 carries and 1 target in week 8. The Bears have been one of the stingiest run defenses in the league in recent weeks, allowing just 152 running back rushing yards on 62 carries in their last 4 games (2.45 yards per carry). Miller’s limited role against that defense isn’t worth consideration in fantasy lineups.
WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 9: @Hou.): Palmer led the Bucs in routes run in week 8 and reached 6+ targets for the 2nd time in the last 3 games. He still finished with just 22 receiving yards and has only exceeded 25 in a game once all year. This week the Bucs face a Houston defense that has allowed the 3rd-fewest WR points per game, and Baker Mayfield should make a concerted effort to get the ball to Mike Evans this week after the star receiver was shut down until late in last week’s game with the Bills. Don’t look for more than 5-6 PPR points out of Palmer this week unless he finds the end zone.
WR Tyler Scott, CHI (Wk. 9: @NO): Scott has been more involved in the offense since Tyson Bagent stepped in at QB, but that’s meant 10 total targets and 42 receiving yards in the last 3 weeks. There’s just not much upside here against a New Orleans defense that ranks 8th in pass defense DVOA.
WR Tre Tucker, LV (Wk. 9: vs. NYG): Tucker pulled in multiple receptions in weeks 6 & 7, but then took a backseat to Hunter Renfrow in week 8. The Raiders’ passing game was a dumpster fire on Monday night, with just 4 completions to a receiver all game, and I’m not sure that firing the coaches and benching Jimmy Garoppolo for a 4th-round rookie is the thing that fixes it. Even if things improve this week for the Raiders, the re-emergence of Renfrow makes Tucker a non-factor for now.
WR Andrei Iosivas, CIN (Wk. 9: vs. Buf.): Iosivas found the end zone for the second consecutive game last weekend, but he’s run just 9 routes and been targeted twice in those games. He’s not someone you can rely on without injuries to Higgins or Chase at the top of the depth chart.
WR Kayshon Boutte, NE (Wk. 9: vs. Was.): You could throw a speculative dart throw at Boutte if you’d like to in deeper dynasty leagues after teammate Kendrick Bourne suffered a torn ACL last Sunday, but realistically there’s no guarantee that it means playing time is coming for Boutte. He may still be 6th on the WR depth chart behind DeVante Parker, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pop Douglas, Jalen Reagor, and Tyquan Thornton. I’d suggest letting someone else waste the roster spot for now.
TE Michael Mayer, LV (Wk. 9: vs. NYG): Mayer’s routes continued to climb in week 8. He’s now seemingly completed his takeover of the starting tight end job after logging a 79% route participation rate on Monday night, but that resulted in just 1 catch for 19 yards on 2 targets. Of course, that could change this week, but the switch to Aidan O’Connell at QB doesn’t bode well for the tight ends if his previous playing time is any indication. O’Connell has attempted 52 passes this season, and just 3 of them have targeted a tight end (all of them to Austin Hooper). Mayer logged a 30% route participation rate in O’Connell’s lone start this year and wasn’t targeted. This week’s opponent, the Giants, have allowed the 8th-fewest TE points per game and have allowed just one tight end in the last 3 weeks to reach 20 yards against them. Mayer’s full-time role means he could put up a top-12 performance, but the evidence we have suggests that it’s pretty unlikely. I’d view him as a borderline top-20 TE for the week.
Rookies on byes in Week 9: RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET, RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN, RB Tank Bigsby, JAX, WR Marvin Mims Jr., DEN, WR Ronnie Brown, SF, TE Sam LaPorta, DET, TE Brenton Strange, JAX
Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: RBs De’Von Achane & Christopher Brooks, MIA, RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL, RB Eric Gray, NYG, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, RB Elijah Dotson, LAC, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, WR Dontayvion Wicks, GB, WR Rakim Jarrett, TB, WR Derius Davis, LAC, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, TE Darnell Washington, PIT, TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL, TE Payne Durham, TB
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Jaren Hall, MIN (Wk. 9: @Atl.): Hall will get thrown into the fire this weekend with Kirk Cousins done for the year, Nick Mullens still on IR, and newly acquired Josh Dobbs not up to speed yet, but the rookie gets a somewhat soft landing spot in Atlanta. The Falcons are fresh off being shredded by another rookie QB (Will Levis), and they rank 28th in pass defense DVOA and have given up 14+ fantasy points to each of the last 7 QBs they’ve faced. Hall has weapons in Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, and KJ Osborn, and didn’t look overwhelmed when forced into duty to close out the win over the Packers last week. I would be surprised if he posts a top-12 finish for the week, but top-20 is certainly a reasonable hope. I’d prefer Hall over fellow rookie starters Tyson Bagent and Clayton Tune if you’re in a pinch, and I don’t think there’s any guarantee that Mullens or Dobbs will take this job from him when they’re ready if he plays well.
QB Aidan O’Connell, LV (Wk. 8: vs. NYG): Of all the rookie starters being thrust into duty this week, O’Connell is the one with the longest guaranteed runway as a starter. Clayton Tune is just keeping the spot warm for Kyler Murray. Jaren Hall might be replaced by Nick Mullens or Josh Dobbs as soon as week 10. Tyson Bagent is starting until Justin Fields is healthy. Will Levis might keep the job once Tannehill is ready to return, but we don’t know that yet. But O’Connell’s situation is different. He’s been named the starter going forward, which means he’s definitely worth a pickup in 2-QB leagues even if I don’t have a ton of faith in him this week. The Giants’ defense has been playing better than you might think in recent weeks. They now rank 16th in pass defense DVOA and have only allowed 1 QB in their last 5 games to score 15+ fantasy points against them. They’ve also forced 6 QB turnovers in the last 4 games. O’Connell has turned the ball over 4 times in about 5 quarters of NFL action, so don’t be surprised if he’s responsible for multiple turnovers this week. On the plus side, AOC was at least good for Raiders two best players in his first start, doling out 63% of his targets to Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs. I’d treat O’Connell as a fringe QB2 this week, but the Raiders’ pass catching weapons are talented enough that he could emerge as a reliable QB2 in the back half of the season.
WR Demario Douglas, NE (Wk. 9: vs. Was.): Douglas has quietly worked his way up a shaky Patriots’ WR depth chart and might now find himself at the top of it after Kendrick Bourne suffered a torn ACL last weekend. Douglas led the team in week 8 with an 84% route participation rate, and he’s earned 13 targets in the last two weeks. That hasn’t resulted in crooked fantasy point totals in the Pats’ lackluster passing game (he’s totaled 19.3 PPR points in the last two weeks), but he gets an extremely favorable matchup this week and could be in line for a spike week. The Commanders rank 30th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed at least one WR to catch for 75+ yards in each of their last 7 games (100+ yards in 6 of those games). We don’t know what the WR usage is going to look like without Kendrick Bourne, but one thing I feel pretty confident about is that Douglas is the only WR that the coaching staff fully trusts right now. He’s going to continue to run a route on 80%+ of the passing dropbacks, and he’s consistently drawn targets this year when he’s on the field. I’d view it as a disappointing week if he doesn’t see 7+ targets against the Commanders on Sunday. If anyone in this offense is going to hit that 75-yard mark against Washington Sunday, it’s Douglas. I’d view him as a WR4 with upside in this juicy matchup, even in spite of the Pats’ struggles throwing the ball.
WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 9: vs. Ind.): Mingo’s full-time role hasn’t translated to fantasy production yet in his young career, but he’s got sneaky upside this week against the Colts. Bryce Young’s play has been improving steadily, raising the floor for all the Panthers’ pass catchers. Adam Thielen has continued to dominate targets for the Panthers, but there are a couple signs that point to this being a potential spike week for Mingo. For starters, the Colts play the least amount of man coverage in the league. Thielen has been targeted on a whopping 34% of his routes against man coverage, but that number slips to just 21% against zone. The Colts also rank 30th in the league in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing #2 receiver. Mingo is coming off his best fantasy game of the season (4 catches for 62 yards), and in this matchup, I wouldn’t be surprised if he duplicates it. That still makes him just a WR4 option, even with a handful of byes this week, but he should easily hit the over on his receiving props for this weekend.
WR Cedric Tillman, CLE (Wk. 9: vs. Ari.): The Browns traded Donovan Peoples-Jones to the Lions at the trade deadline this week, opening up quite a bit of playing time in their offense. DPJ had logged a 78% route participation rate for the season prior to the trade, and the Browns have 3 internal candidates to step up and take that playing time. Those candidates are Marquise Goodwin, David Bell, and Cedric Tillman. Goodwin would probably be the one who could best duplicate the specific role Peoples-Jones was playing, running clear-out routes to create space for Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore, but Tillman is the most well rounded of the group. If the Browns want to put the best receiver on the field, Tillman will get the biggest jump in playing time. It’s likely that all 3 players see more snaps in the near term, but I’d bet on Tillman’s talent eventually winning out, and the rookie being a meaningful part of this offense when the fantasy playoffs roll around. He’s worth considering as a stash in deep redraft leagues, and certainly shouldn’t be on the wire in dynasty leagues. If he’s available in yours, you should rectify that.
TE Luke Musgrave, GB (Wk. 9: vs. LAR): Musgrave’s usage hasn’t been great since his return from his week 4 concussion. He’s averaged a reasonable 5 targets per game, but his average target depth has plummeted. The Packers have been throwing to him just 2.7 yards downfield in the last 3 games, and he’s averaged less than 5 yards per target in those games (compared to 8.3 ypt in the first 3 games of the season when he was targeted further downfield). This week’s matchup with the Rams could be a prime opportunity for Musgrave to get back on track. The Rams have allowed the 4th-most tight end points per game for the year, and in the past 5 games they’ve coughed up 4 tight end scores and allowed 4 different tight ends to hit 40+ receiving yards. No team in the league has allowed more yards per target to tight ends than the Rams. I wouldn’t treat Musgrave as a top-12 tight end this week. The Packers’ passing game has struggled too much to have that kind of confidence in him, but there’s more upside than usual if you’re digging deep for a starter or are looking for a cheap option in DFS.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
October
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! You’ve survived the week 7 bye-mageddon, and the scheduling gods have given you a reprieve for week 8 with no byes on the schedule. There will be more challenging bye weeks ahead, but all options are on the table this weekend. Unfortunately, that means there may be fewer rookies that are worth rolling the dice on with fewer lineup holes to be filled.
There are fewer rookies I’d lean toward starting this week than in a typical bye week, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t reasons to be excited for the rookie crop this weekend. We do get a couple of fun rookie matchups in week 8. We were deprived of Tyson Bagent vs Aidan O’Connell last week when the Raiders opted to start Brian Hoyer, but we get the rookie QB main event this week with CJ Stroud vs. Bryce Young in Carolina. Stroud has undoubtedly been the more impressive of the two so far this season, but this should be a fun game to watch with two QBs who should lead their franchises for the next few seasons or longer. We also get a fun tight end duel between Sam LaPorta and Michael Mayer, who were drafted with back-to-back picks in the early 2nd round. LaPorta has been a stud tight end all season, but Mayer has been emerging in recent weeks.
We also get the chance to see if some highly touted rookies can build on the breakout games they had in week 7. Dalton Kincaid, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Jahmyr Gibbs all posted their best days of the season and will be looking to keep it rolling in week 8. Hopefully, we’ll also get to see a bounce-back game out of Bijan Robinson after the Falcons skirted the injury-reporting rules last week and didn’t indicate that Robinson might be limited until well after their game had started. Robinson was limited to just 1 carry for the day on a handful of snaps due to headaches or some sort of illness that started Saturday night. Hopefully, he’s back to his usual self this week.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Let’s dive into week 8:
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 8: @Ten.): Last week was brutal for anyone who started Robinson in fantasy lineups. There was no warning that anything was off with the star rookie until the game started and he wasn’t getting touches. He finished the day with just 1 carry for 3 yards. All I can tell you is to flush that game from your memory. Forget that it happened. Keep tabs on the injury report and make sure Bijan is ok this week, but if he’s good to go, he should be in your lineup, even in a tough matchup with the Titans. Tennessee ranks 4th in FTN’s run defense DVOA stat and has allowed fewer than 12 running back points per game if you throw out an uncharacteristically bad performance against the Colts’ backs, but if Bijan is back to his usual 15+ touch role, he should be treated as no worse than a high-end RB2.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 8: vs. LV): Last Sunday’s tilt with the Ravens was an ugly one for Detroit, but we finally got to see Jahmyr Gibbs in a true lead back role where he was actually used in both the run game and as a receiver (although he didn’t really produce much until garbage time). Gibbs touched the ball just 4 times in the first half as the Ravens dominated possession, but he finished with 68 yards and a score on the ground and 9-58 on 10 targets as a receiver. I wouldn’t count on 9 catches from Gibbs again this week – game script should be much more positive as an 8-point favorite – but he should continue to function as the lead back in a plus matchup while David Montgomery continues to recover from his rib injury. He could lose some goal line and short-yardage work to Craig Reynolds, but Gibbs should still see plenty of work against a Raiders’ defense that has allowed the 5th-most RB points per game and ranks 28th in run defense DVOA. He’s a locked and loaded RB2 this week (assuming Monty doesn’t make a miracle return).
WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 8: @Dal.): Nacua faces a tough matchup against a Dallas defense that allows the 3rd-fewest WR points per game, but he’s earned the benefit of the doubt by now. You don’t worry about the matchups with Puka, you just plug him into the lineup. He’s averaged 10 targets and 84 yards per game in 3 contests since Cooper Kupp returned from IR.
WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 8: @GB): Addison had his coming out party on Monday night against the 49ers. He wasn’t used as the obvious WR1 in Minnesota’s first game without Justin Jefferson, but that changed in week 7. Addison set season highs in targets and air yards and led the team with 4 targets on 3rd or 4th down. Kirk Cousins looked for him when he needed someone to make a big play, and Addison obliged, making arguably the play of the game when he ripped an interception out of the hands of Charvarius Ward and sprinted for a long TD just before halftime. Addison should continue to function as the Vikings’ lead wide receiver until Justin Jefferson is able to return. This week that means a healthy number of targets against a defense that ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing #1 receiver, and 30th on deep throws. Addison is a solid WR2/3 this week. I’d give him a slight downgrade if Jaire Alexander returns for the Packers this week, but not enough of one that I’d sit him without great options in front of him.
WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 8: @Ari.): Flowers has scored double-digit PPR points in 6 of 7 games so far this season, and the Cardinals have allowed 15+ PPR points to an opposing receiver in 5 straight games. The Cardinals rank 31st in pass defense DVOA and the Ravens have the 4th-highest implied point total of the week. Everything shapes up for Flowers to be an easy call to start as a WR3. He’s got a safe floor and a high ceiling in this matchup. He may be a good option for DFS tournaments this week as the Cards have coughed up 148+ yards to 3 of the last 4 WR1s they faced (Aiyuk, Chase, Kupp).
TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 8: vs. LV): LaPorta faced one of the toughest tight end matchups in the league last weekend (Baltimore allows fewer than 30 tight end receiving yards per game), and he finished the week as the PPR TE10 with 6 catches and 52 yards on 7 targets. LaPorta has yet to finish below the PPR TE16 in any week this season, and his matchup this week is a little more forgiving than last week’s. There may be less passing volume for Detroit this week as 8-point favorites, but LaPorta is 2nd on the team in targets, and the Raiders have allowed the 18th-most TE points per game and rank just 22nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to opposing tight ends. LaPorta remains a top-10 tight end option this week.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 8: @Car.): Stroud hasn’t had to throw a ton in recent weeks, averaging just 30.5 pass attempts per game in his last 4 contests, but he’s still managed to average 258 passing yards per game in that stretch, and he’s thrown for multiple TDs in 4 of his last 5 games. His opponents this week, the Panthers, have allowed multiple passing TDs to each of the last 3 QBs they’ve faced, and 3 passing scores to each of the last 2. Carolina ranks just 18th in pass defense DVOA and will likely struggle to contain the very efficient Stroud, who should have his receiving unit back at full strength with the return of Tank Dell. Stroud’s ceiling could be limited by his lower passing volume, but his recent performance trends and this matchup tell me he should be a fringe QB1 for week 8.
QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 8: vs. Hou.): I list Young under the same header as CJ Stroud, but I don’t view them as comparable options this week. Stroud is in play for 1-QB leagues, while Young is a borderline option in 2-QB and superflex leagues. The Panthers have dropped each of their last 2 games by 3 scores, But Bryce recorded his two best fantasy games of the season in those contests and showed signs of improvement. The Panthers simplified their offense in week 6, and Young seemed to be more comfortable, at least early on in that game. He’s now had a bye week to make more strides and this week he faces a Houston team that has allowed the 9th-most QB points per game and ranks 22nd in pass defense DVOA. The reasonable ceiling here is probably 250 yards and 2 scores, and the floor is still low, but I like Young’s chances of cracking the top-20 QBs for the week.
RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 8: @LAC): Johnson has missed 2 weeks now in the concussion protocol, so I’d be surprised if he wasn’t able to return this week. The matchup is a decent one against a Chargers’ defense that ranks 23rd in run defense DVOA and has allowed an opposing back to reach 12+ fantasy points in each game this season, but Johnson will likely be splitting the workload with D’Onta Foreman this week after Foreman showed out against the Raiders last Sunday to the tune of 120 scrimmage yards and 3 TDs. Johnson’s biggest advantage over Foreman this week will likely come in the passing game. Game script should keep the Bears throwing as 8.5-point underdogs, and while Foreman did draw 5 targets last weekend, the Bears showed a preference early in the year to use Johnson in passing situations. He was the primary option in long down & distance situations and in the 2-minute offense early in the season, and he should resume that role if he returns this week. The Chargers have allowed 4 different backs to catch at least 4 passes in their last 4 games, and the Bears’ RBs earned a 32% target share in Tyson Bagent’s first career start. Johnson has a great chance to finish as a PPR RB3 or better assuming he’s able to suit up this week.
WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 8: vs. NO): The injury to Anthony Richardson may not be great for the Colts’ franchise, but it’s been good for Josh Downs’ fantasy output. The Colts throw more with Gardner Minshew under center, and Downs is one of his favorite targets. In his last 5 starts in a Shane Steichen offense, Minshew has averaged 39 passing attempts and 298 yards per game. Downs has earned a 22.2% target share from Minshew this year, and he’s averaged 6 catches for 68 yards on 8.7 targets per game in Minshew’s 3 starts. He’s also found the end zone in two of them. The Saints do rank 8th in pass defense DVOA, so this isn’t an easy matchup, but they’ve allowed the 4th-most receiving yards and 5th-most yards after catch to opposing slot receivers. Downs is 4th in the NFL in WR slot snaps. For the season the Saints have allowed 12+ fantasy points to 5 different wide receivers. 3 of them play primarily in the slot. They’ve given up slot receiving lines of 7-54-1 to Adam Thielen, 3-63 to Jayden Reed, 4-45-1 to Deven Thompkins, and 6-90-1 to Christian Kirk. I wouldn’t count on another 20-point game from Downs, but there’s reason to like him as a WR3 in this matchup, even if Michael Pittman Jr. gets a bit of squeaky wheel treatment this week after complaining about his role.
WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 8: @Den.): Rice has tallied 10+ PPR points in 4 of his last 5 games, logged his highest route participation rate of the season last weekend, and faces a defense this weekend that ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA. Rice has seen fluctuations in his weekly route participation rate, but his targets have been consistent. He’s been targeted 5+ times in 4 of the last 5 games (and targeted 4 times in the other). He’s had a solid PPR floor as a WR3/4 option, and this week he might have a little extra ceiling against an awful Broncos’ secondary. Rice’s 53.1% slot rate means he’ll likely avoid Patrick Surtain’s coverage.
TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 8: vs. TB): Kincaid finally had the breakout game that we’ve been waiting for all season last week. I mentioned last week that Kincaid has struggled this season because defenses haven’t treated him as a tight end when both he and Dawson Knox were on the field. They’ve lined up in nickel and dime and covered Kincaid with a cornerback. Last weekend with Knox battling a wrist injury and playing limited snaps, Kincaid finally was able to be used more as a traditional tight end, and the result was 8 catches for 75 yards on 8 targets. It’s been reported that Knox will now have wrist surgery and likely be placed on IR. That means Kincaid gets the TE role all to himself for a bit. The matchup this week isn’t great against a Tampa defense that allows the 10th-fewest TE points per game, but a player with Kincaid’s skills playing a full-time role with Josh Allen as his QB is a sure-fire top-12 option at the position.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
RB Emari Demercado, ARI (Wk. 8: vs. Bal.): Demercado is right on the borderline for me this week. He was a big disappointment in week 6 after being the hot waiver pickup of the week and then totaling just 3 touches against the Rams, but his underlying usage gave reasons for hope. He still led the Cardinals backs in snaps and routes run in that game, and in week 7, he was given the lead back role we expected in week 6. The TCU product handled 13 carries and 5 targets last weekend en route to a PPR RB22 finish against what has been a stingy Seahawks run defense. He should have a similar role this week but gets a similarly tough matchup with the Ravens. Baltimore ranks 7th in run defense DVOA and is favored by 8.5 points in this game, so I wouldn’t count on Demercado getting much going on the ground. If he’s going to produce, he’s going to have to do it through the air, where he hasn’t been particularly efficient. The Ravens have been vulnerable to receiving backs, allowing 30+ receiving yards to 4 different running backs this season, but Demercado has averaged just 4.2 yards per target on the season. He’ll have to improve on that number or find the end zone this week if he wants to repeat or improve on that RB22 finish. He’s in play as an RB3 this week, but I don’t see a ton of ceiling in a matchup where points may be at a premium for the Cardinals.
RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 8: vs. Atl.): Spears has been surprisingly productive this year for a back playing alongside Derrick Henry. He’s played over 50% of the offensive snaps in 5 out of 6 games, including 4 in a row, and he’s finished as a top-30 PPR back 4 times this season. With that in mind, he’s definitely in play this week as a flex/RB3 option in PPR leagues, but I’d take a cautious approach here with the Titans’ QB situation in flux. The expectation is that Ryan Tannehill will miss this game, and that Will Levis will get the start with Malik Willis mixing in as well. Willis in his short career has targeted running backs in the passing game at a lower rate than Tannehill, and no running back caught 20+ passes from Will Levis in his two seasons at Kentucky. I’m not sure we can expect Spears’ usual 4-5 targets in this game, and Atlanta is a tough matchup in the run game. The Falcons have allowed the 2nd-fewest RB points per game and rank 5th in run defense DVOA. Only Rachaad White has caught for 30+ yards against them out of the backfield. There’s still upside for Spears if he can break off a long run or reception, but there’s more risk of a down week than usual for the rookie.
RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. KC): McLaughlin played just 10 snaps in week 7 as Javonte Williams got a week closer to full strength, but that may have been a result of some rare positive game script for the Broncos. There should be less of that this week against the Chiefs, who are 8-point favorites, and McLaughlin did still manage 46 scrimmage yards on the limited snaps last week. Still, even in a pass-heavy game script McLaughlin will be splitting receiving opportunities with Williams and Samaje Perine, and KC has allowed just one running back to catch more than 2 passes against them, and none to catch for more than 20 receiving yards. With Mclaughlin’s limited role, you’ll need him to be extremely efficient to produce a fantasy-worthy performance.
WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 8: @Car.): Dell finds himself in his usual landing spot this week, squarely on the start/sit borderline, but I’d place him on the wrong side of the cut line with no teams on byes. The Texans have averaged just 30.5 passing attempts per game in their last 4 games, and they’re 3-point favorites this week and shouldn’t be forced to throw much more than that average. They also have quite a few pass catchers to divvy those targets up between. The Panthers aren’t a difficult matchup, ranking just a middling 18th in pass defense DVOA. For the season, Dell has been targeted on 22.9% of his routes against zone coverage, and the Panthers play zone at the 3rd-highest rate in the league. This feels like the kind of game where Dell will post something like 5 catches for 60 yards, but there’s so much weekly volatility in how the Texans’ receivers are used that it’s tough to rely on him as a WR3.
WRs Jaxon Smith-Njigba & Jake Bobo, SEA (Wk. 8: vs. Cle.): DK Metcalf missed week 7’s meeting with the Cardinals, and JSN and Bobo each benefitted by seeing 5+ targets and finding the end zone. Metcalf is practicing this week and should return, but Tyler Lockett popped up on the injury report as well and missed practice Wednesday with a hamstring issue. It’s likely just precautionary, and I’d expect Lockett to play, but it’s worth monitoring. If Lockett misses this week’s game, both JSN and Bobo would get a boost again. If both Metcalf and Lockett play, Bobo would be the receiver most negatively impacted. He was putting up route participation rates in the 25-30% range prior to last week before spiking to 86% with Metcalf out. No matter what receivers are healthy, Seattle is facing arguably the toughest pass defense in the league. The Browns rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 2nd-fewest WR points per game. If both starters are healthy, Bobo is off the fantasy radar. He just won’t see enough playing time to produce against this defense. If someone is out, he becomes more of a TD dart throw. I’d lean away from using JSN as well this week, but he’s more viable. The problem for him is that the Browns play man coverage at the highest rate in the league, and JSN just isn’t as effective at getting open vs. man coverage. Roto Underworld credits him with a 37% route win rate vs. man coverage compared to 54% vs. zone. I’d expect most of the WR production this week to go to Metcalf and Lockett. Even if Lockett sits, I’d treat JSN as a WR4 option in the tough matchup.
WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 8: vs. Hou.): Mingo was in a route on nearly every Carolina passing dropback in week 6 ahead of their bye, but he earned just 3 targets on 38 Bryce Young pass attempts in that game. We still haven’t seen Mingo reach double-digit PPR points despite playing a full-time role and averaging 6 targets per game. He’s mostly running routes to create space for Adam Thielen. I wouldn’t count on this week being the one where Mingo has a breakout game. The Texans have allowed the 5th-fewest WR points per game, and week 6 was the first game of the Panthers new ‘simplified’ offense for Bryce Young, and Mingo saw his lowest target total of the year in that game. I’m not sure a bounce-back is coming this week. I’d take it as a pleasant surprise if Mingo topped 50 yards for the first time this season.
WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 8: vs. Bal.): Wilson disappointed last weekend with just 3 catches for 26 yards in a matchup vs. the zone-heavy Seahawks. This week he faces off with the Ravens, who rank 1st in pass defense DVOA and are in the top-6 in the league in man coverage rate. Wilson has drawn a target on just 5.7% of his matchups vs. man coverage compared with an 18.8% target rate vs. zone. Wilson has caught for 50+ yards in 4 of 7 games this year, and there’s still upside here in a game where Arizona is almost certain to be playing from behind and throwing, but this doesn’t look like the type of matchup where Wilson has thrived this year. With no byes on the schedule, there are likely better options on your roster than Wilson this week.
WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): Hyatt’s increased playing time finally resulted in a big performance last week as he pulled in receptions of 42 and 33 yards and set a season-high with 5 targets. He’s going to continue to operate as the Giants’ WR2 going forward, and he should keep seeing a few deep targets per game as long as Tyrod Taylor is under center, but this week he gets a tough matchup to cash in those opportunities. The Jets are on track to get both starting cornerbacks - Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed - back from injury this week, and for the season they allow the fewest WR points per game and rank 3rd in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. They’ve given up just 5 completions of 25+ yards to opposing wide receivers this year. Hyatt’s deep targets mean he has a chance to put up a solid game on just a few opportunities, but I wouldn’t count on him doing so in this matchup.
WR Marvin Mims, Jr., DEN (Wk. 8: vs. KC): Mims ran more routes than Brandon Johnson for just the 2nd time all season in week 7. That only amounted to 14 routes and 1 uncatchable target in a game where the Broncos played from ahead for once, but they should be back to their usual trailing game script and throwing a bunch against the Chiefs this weekend. Mims still isn’t playing enough to be counted on for fantasy lineups, especially against a defense that allows the 8th-fewest WR points per game and ranks 6th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. He’ll need to make a splash play or two to return value this week, and while deep targets have been there for Mims, he’s recorded negative 7 scrimmage yards in the past 3 weeks combined. There’s more upside here than meets the eye if his increased playing time continues in trailing game script, but he’s still not really worth consideration outside of leagues that give points for return yards.
TE Luke Musgrave, GB (Wk. 8: vs. Min.): Musgrave’s season got off to a promising start, but his usage since suffering a week 4 concussion has been less than inspiring. Prior to the concussion, he had run a route on over 80% of the Packers’ dropbacks in each of the first 3 games of the year and tallied over 70 air yards in two of them. In the two full games he’s played since, that route participation rate has been around 70%, and he’s been under 20 air yards in each game. He’s still seeing a healthy number of targets (6 per game in the last two contests), but his 10 catches in those games turned into just 64 yards. The Vikings have been just a middling tight end defense, allowing the 15th-most points per game to the position, but George Kittle is the only starting tight end to average more than 6 yards per target against them. Musgrave will probably be hard pressed to get to 50 yards this week, which means you’re counting on a TD for him to post a useful fantasy week. He’s probably still a top 15-18 option at the position, but there are safer choices you can use at tight end this week with no teams on byes.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Aidan O’Connell, LV (Wk. 8: @Det.): It looks like Jimmy Garoppolo is going to be able to return this week barring a setback, but even if O’Connell gets the nod, I’d probably look elsewhere in 2-QB formats. The rookie has shown an ability to move the ball in the two games where he’s seen action, but he’s also turned the ball over 4 times in just a game and a quarter. The Lions have been vulnerable to QBs, coughing up the 8th-most fantasy points per game to the position largely because opposing teams have been chasing them on the scoreboard, but they still rank 9th in pass defense DVOA and should be playing with an edge after getting trounced by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens last week. This isn’t the week you want to catch the Lions’ defense if you’re a rookie QB. I would treat O’Connell as a bottom-5 starting option this week if by some chance he gets the start.
QB Will Levis, TEN (Wk. 8: vs. Atl.): Ryan Tannehill has been battling an ankle injury that could keep him out this week, and head coach Mike Vrabel said that if Tannehill misses this game, Levis will start, but Malik Willis will mix in as well. You don’t need me to tell you that you shouldn’t start either QB of a Titans’ team that ranks 32nd in pass attempts and 30th in passing yards if 2 QBs are splitting the job. The Falcons rank just 29th in pass defense DVOA, but that’s not enough for me to consider using Levis in his first NFL action. He’s worth monitoring in case he shows out, but he shouldn’t be doing it from in your lineup.
RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 8: vs. Cle.): Charbonnet’s ancillary role in this offense behind Kenneth Walker III has value in weeks where Seattle can play from ahead against bad run defenses. This isn’t one of those weeks. Seattle is favored by a field goal against Cleveland this weekend, but the Browns rank 2nd in run defense DVOA and have allowed just one running back to reach double-digit fantasy points against them on fewer than 14 touches. Charbs hasn’t logged more than 10 touches in any game this season. With no teams on byes, he’s in the RB4/RB5 range this week. This changes if Kenneth Walker is unable to play on Sunday. Walker, like teammate Tyler Lockett, popped up on the injury report as a DNP (did not practice) on Wednesday. If Walker sits, Charbonnet catapults up to the range of a low-end RB2 even in a tough matchup.
RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 8: @Ind.): Miller logged just 3 offensive snaps and didn’t record a single touch last week with Jamaal Williams back from injury against the Jaguars. Williams didn’t play a ton either as Alvin Kamara dominated the backfield work. Head Coach Dennis Allen said that the plan going forward is to get Miller and Williams more involved and balance out those touches more, but I don’t know how you can rely on a running back who has touched the ball more than 3 times just once in the last 4 games, even when he’s facing a defense that allows the 6th-most RB points per game. The one game in that span with extended work for Kendre was a 34-0 drubbing of the Patriots. I don’t expect that kind of lopsided game this week, where the Saints are 1-point underdogs to the Colts.
RB Zach Evans, LAR (Wk. 8: @Dal.): Evans seemed to be in line for a significant workload last weekend after both Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers were placed on IR, but instead the Rams promoted Royce Freeman from the practice squad and signed Darrell Henderson off the street and let that duo handle all of the running back reps. Evans wasn’t on the field for a single offensive snap, and I don’t see that changing much this week.
RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 8: @Pit.): Bigsby has totaled just 13 carries and 2 targets in the last 5 games combined. He continues to be off the fantasy radar unless something happens to Travis Etienne.
RB Keaton Mitchell, BAL (Wk. 8: @Ari.): The Ravens were up 28-0 by the middle of the 2nd quarter last weekend, and Mitchell still only managed to play two snaps and touched the ball just once. If he’s not going to be involved even in garbage time, there’s no reason to roster him.
RB Sean Tucker, TB (Wk. 8: @Buf.): Tucker hasn’t played an offensive snap since week 3. He’s limited to just special teams now.
WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 8: @Buf.): Palmer set a new season-high with 32 routes run last week against Atlanta, but he was targeted just twice, making his 6-target game in week 6 look more like an aberration than a sign of an increasing role. The Bucs’ targets will continue to be funneled to Evans & Godwin, and Palmer will continue to battle with Cade Otton, Deven Tompkins, and Rachaad White for what’s left over. I wouldn’t expect a big target total this week against a Buffalo defense that ranks 5th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing WR3.
WRs Quentin Johnston & Derius Davis, LAC (Wk. 8: vs. Chi.): Johnston set a season-high last week for receiving yards with just 20. He’s running a sizeable number of routes, but he hasn’t been targeted more than 3 times in any game this season. He was outproduced in fantasy points last week by rookie teammate Derius Davis, who ran all of 5 routes against the Chiefs. At some point, the Chargers are going to actually get Johnston more involved, and maybe it happens this week against a bad Bears’ defense, but I’d be much more willing to live with it if he had a blow-up game from my bench than if he had another 2–3-point game from in my lineup. Davis just isn’t playing enough snaps to be worth consideration.
WR Tyler Scott, CHI (Wk. 8: @LAC): Scott was in a route on nearly 70% of the Bears’ dropbacks in week 7 (a season-high), but that turned into just 2 catches for 19 yards on 3 targets. He also added 14 rushing yards as a bonus, but with Bagent at QB, the Bears’ passing game likely won’t be explosive enough for an ancillary receiver like Scott to be fantasy-relevant. I liked his upside last week as a deep threat against a bad Raiders’ defense but won’t go back to that well against a bad Chargers’ defense given Bagent’s 2-yard aDOT last weekend. If Bagent isn’t going to push the ball down the field, Scott isn’t going to provide fantasy value.
WR Tre Tucker, LV (Wk. 8: @Det.): Tucker was over a 50% route participation rate for the 2nd game in a row last week, but he didn’t see the same deep targets he did in week 6. Tucker will always be fighting for the scraps left over by Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Josh Jacobs, so if those few targets he sees are short ones, there’s not a lot of fantasy value there. His aDOT prior to week 7 was 27 yards. His aDOT in week 7 was just 7.3 yards. Maybe the long targets return with Jimmy Garoppolo likely back under center, but both of Tucker’s multi-target games have occurred while Jimmy G was sidelined with injury.
Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: QB Anthony Richardson, IND, QB Clayton Tune, ARI, RBs De’Von Achane & Christopher Brooks, MIA, RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL, RB Eric Gray, NYG, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, RB Elijah Dotson, LAC, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, WR Dontayvion Wicks, GB, WR Ronnie Bell, SF, WR Cedric Tillman, CLE, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Kayshon Boutte, NE, TE Darnell Washington, PIT, TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Tyson Bagent, CHI (Wk. 8: @LAC): Bagent acquitted himself well in his first NFL start, executing a conservative game plan well in an impressive victory over the Raiders. He completed over 70% of his passes, but his average throw traveled just 2 yards downfield, and he averaged a meager 5.6 yards per attempt. I’d expect a similar gameplan this week, but this is a great matchup for any QB. The Bears are 8.5-point underdogs this week, so Bagent likely won’t get away with throwing fewer than 30 passes again, and the Chargers have allowed the most QB fantasy points per game and rank 28th in pass defense DVOA. The ceiling here isn’t high even in this great matchup, but don’t be shocked if Bagent dinks and dunks his way to a low-end QB2 finish for the week. 5 out of the 6 QBs to face the Chargers this year have topped 20 fantasy points.
WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 8: vs. Min.): Reed’s usage hasn’t quite been what we’d hope for since Christian Watson’s return to the lineup. Reed averaged 6.3 targets and 50 yards per game in the first 4 games of the year (including week 4 when Watson played limited snaps in his first game back), but he’s averaged just 3 targets and 14 yards in the two games since, and logged route participation rates below 60% in both games. That kind of workload means he’s probably not a starting option in most leagues, but he does get a decent matchup this week. The Vikings have allowed the 7th-most receiver points per game, and they’ve allowed the 8th-most receiving yards and 2nd-most yards after the catch to opposing slot receivers. When you pair that with Reed’s usage in scoring range (he’s got 6 of the team’s 14 targets within 10 yards of the end zone), there’s some sneaky upside here in deep leagues or in DFS lineups.
WR Demario Douglas, NE (Wk. 8: @Mia.): The return of JuJu Smith-Schuster from the concussion protocol is enough to prevent me from giving a full-throated endorsement of Douglas for this week, but at some point, the Patriots have got to realize what they have here. Douglas is consistently earning targets when he’s on the field (25% target per route run rate), and he leads the receiver group in yards per target and yards per route run. The Patriots just have to keep giving him routes. If he plays the same role he did last week (71% route participation rate) against a Miami defense that allows the 9th-most WR points per game, he’s a viable WR4/5 option. I don’t trust that will happen with JuJu back, but Douglas shouldn’t be sitting on the waiver wire in deeper leagues. He’s just 5% rostered on Sleeper.
WR Andrei Iosivas, CIN (Wk. 8: @SF): Iosivas isn’t an option for this week, but now would be a good time to scoop him off your league waiver wire in dynasty leagues if he’s still available. The Bengals are coming off a bye week, so most folks aren’t rushing to add the Bengals’ depth guys this week, but Iosivas has sneakily started to see his playing time increase, and he’s impressed in his limited opportunities. He was an un-thrown coach’s challenge flag away from a dazzling toe-tap catch in week 5 and followed that up with his first career TD in week 6 ahead of the bye week. He’s still only run 21 routes in the last two games, but it seems the Bengals may be grooming him to be the Tee Higgins replacement in 2024. He’s a much better perimeter option than Trenton Irwin, Tyler Boyd, or Charlie Jones, and he may have a few spike game opportunities this season given Higgins’ issues with staying on the field in recent seasons. Higgins has left games early with an injury 4 times since the start of last season and was inactive for another, and he’s currently battling a rib injury that he said may bother him all season. With that said, anything you get from Iosivas this year should be seen as a bonus. This is a dynasty stash with 2024 in mind.
TE Michael Mayer, LV (Wk. 8: @Det.): Mayer’s usage took a step backward last weekend after his breakout game in week 6. He’s still playing ahead of Austin Hooper as the Raiders’ lead tight end, but a 52% route participation rate isn’t what you’re looking for from a TE1. That doesn’t mean he can’t have a useful fantasy day in week 8. The Lions have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends and have allowed 5 different tight ends to pull in at least 4 receptions against them. That overall points per game number is skewed a bit by the big game from Mark Andrews last weekend, but I’d still expect a handful of targets to go Mayer’s way. He’s a passable fill-in this week if you’re in a pinch at the position, and he could be a fun play in showdown DFS contests for Monday Night Football.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
October
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 6 was one of those weeks that set offense in the NFL back by a decade. Offensive output was already trending down this season, but it hit new lows in week 6, with 13 of the 15 games on the schedule finishing with 40 or fewer total points scored. No NFL week last season had more than 9 games of 40 or less. Usually, it takes terrible weather to get the kinds of scores we saw last week, but this time it was mostly just abysmal offense. The low game scores also led to lower fantasy scoring for the week. Look back at your fantasy scoreboard through the season…I’d bet the league high score for week 6 was 20 points lower than it’s been in any other week this season.
The rookie crop was affected just like everyone else, as the 3 rookies who have been the most reliable all season (Bijan Robinson, Puka Nacua, and Sam LaPorta) each had their worst, or in Bijan’s case, 2nd-worst, fantasy game of the season. There were a few bright spots as all of Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison, and Josh Downs found the end zone, and tight end Michael Mayer finished as the PPR TE5 for the week, but there were plenty of duds too. Emari Demercado, Quentin Johnston, and Kendre Miller were all non-factors last weekend after playing bigger roles in previous weeks.
Things only get tougher in week 7. Injuries have continued to pile up, and this week is one of two this season where 6 teams are on byes. You’re likely going to be starting some players you wouldn’t usually start, and you might be looking at some rookies who have been riding your bench. Keep that bye situation in mind as you read through these rookie outlooks for the week. The limited options have bumped some rookies to the right side of the borderline, and bumped others into consideration who normally shouldn’t be on your radar.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Let’s talk about what to expect in week 7:
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 7: @TB): Bijan still hasn’t shown off the ceiling we were hoping for from him this season, but his receiving work continues to buoy his weekly floor. Robinson has tallied at least 10 PPR points in every game this season, and he’s logged 14+ touches in every game as well. The Bucs have been stingy to running backs, allowing the 9th-fewest points per game to the position, but Robinson remains a top-12 play for week 7, even in this tougher matchup.
WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 7: vs. Pit.): Nacua put up his worst fantasy game of the season in week 6, but he still saw 7 targets and faces off this week with a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed the 4th-most WR points per game. The Steelers have been much more vulnerable to slot receivers than guys on the perimeter, so it may set up as a better matchup for Cooper Kupp than for Puka, but you’ll likely be kicking yourself if you sit the rookie this week because of that. He should still see enough volume to be a solid WR2, especially with the Rams’ backfield in flux due to injuries.
TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 7: @Bal.): LaPorta’s performance was a bit disappointing in week 6 as he tallied just 4 catches for 36 yards and finished as the PPR TE17 for the week, but he was targeted a whopping 11 times for over 100 intended air yards. He was facing a tough matchup with the Bucs and gets another tough matchup with Baltimore this week (the Ravens allow the fewest TE points per game), but very few tight ends have the kind of weekly upside that LaPorta offers. He’s still a safe top-8 TE option this week.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 7: @Bal.): Gibbs missed the last two games with injury but returns at the right time with David Montgomery now sidelined by a rib issue. Craig Reynolds handled the bulk of the work in spot duty last week after Monty went out, but Gibbs was on the field for nearly 60% of the offensive snaps the last time Montgomery missed a game. I’d expect a similar workload for him here. Baltimore isn’t an easy matchup. They rank 7th in FTN’s run defense DVOA and have allowed the 15th-fewest RB points per game, but a player with Gibbs’ skills in a lead back role this week is a top-20 option no matter the opponent. You can sit him if you’ve got multiple top-15 backs ahead of him, but if not, you should be firing Gibbs up in week 7.
RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 7: vs. LV): Keep a close eye on the injury report here. Roschon still isn’t practicing due to a concussion suffered in week 5, but this would be a great opportunity for a big day if he’s able to get cleared in time. The Raiders rank 27th in run defense DVOA, and the Bears should be inclined to lean on the run game to help Tyson Bagent in his first NFL start. Johnson would likely split the workload with D’Onta Foreman if he’s able to return, but that could still mean 12-15 touches in a good matchup. If Johnson plays, he’s an RB3 option this week.
WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 7: vs. Det.): The Ravens’ new-look Todd Monken passing game hasn’t exactly lived up to what it was billed to be, but it has succeeded in making Flowers a consistent weekly WR2/3 option. Flowers has reached 50 scrimmage yards in all 6 games this season and double-digit PPR points in 5 of them. Detroit boasts the best defense the franchise has had in years, ranking 5th in pass defense DVOA, but I wouldn’t let that chase me off of starting Flowers as a WR3 this week. The Lions have allowed the 13th-most WR points per game, and Zay has earned a 24% or higher target share in 5 of 6 games this year. There’s no reason to avoid Flowers this week if you’ve been using him up until now.
WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 7: vs. SF): In the Vikings first game without Justin Jefferson in the lineup, Addison was in a route on 100% of Kirk Cousins’ dropbacks and managed to salvage a lackluster receiving day with a touchdown, finishing with 3-28-1 on 5 targets. It’s worth noting that the Vikings played largely from ahead, and that Cousins logged his 2nd-lowest pass attempt total of the season. The Vikings are a touchdown underdog this week and should return to a pass-first game script against the 49ers. Minnesota has thrown the ball at least 44 times in all 4 of their losses this year. There’s a chance they rein in the extreme passing volume with Jefferson out, but I’d still expect them to push towards 40 attempts in this one. That means Addison will likely see 7-8 targets, and while this matchup looks tough on paper, the 49ers have allowed the 6th-most WR receptions per game. They’ve given up 14+ PPR points to all of Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, Michael Wilson, Marquise Brown, and Amari Cooper this season. There is some risk that the 49ers will completely stifle the Vikings’ offense in this game, but I’d lean toward trusting Addison to put up 50+ yards and find his way to a WR3 day.
WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 7: @Sea.): Wilson has now topped 50 receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 games even though he made us wait until the end of the game to get there in week 6. Wilson finished with 3-63 on 4 targets against the Rams last weekend, and 2 of the catches and 45 of the yards came in the last 5 minutes of the game. We won’t fault him for that though. Wilson’s production profile is a big help in deciding when to start him. Every catch he’s posted this season has come against zone coverage, and the Seahawks play zone coverage at the 2nd-highest rate in the league (86.5%). The Cards are 8-point underdogs and should be throwing plenty, so Wilson should be in line for another game with 50+ yards against a defense that plays to his strengths. Seattle has allowed the 2nd-most WR points per game this year.
WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 7: vs. LAC): Rice has tallied double-digit PPR points in 4 out of 6 games this year despite not logging a route participation rate higher than 51% in any game this season. He’s been right around 50% in 3 of the last 4 games, and that kind of playing time probably means another WR3 finish against a Chargers’ defense that allows the most WR points per game and ranks 21st in pass defense DVOA. I’d like to see Rice’s playing time increase before we start treating him as an every-week starter, but I like him this week in a plus matchup with 6 teams on byes.
TE Luke Musgrave, GB (Wk. 7: @Den.): Musgrave returned last week from the concussion he suffered in week 5 and earned a 24% target share in his first game back, and now he faces a Denver defense that has allowed the most TE fantasy points in the league. The Broncos gave up 20+ PPR points to Travis Kelce and Cole Kmet this season, and 10+ to both Logan Thomas and Tyler Conklin. The Packers’ offense would prefer to be run-heavy, and the Broncos’ run defense is just as bad as the pass defense, so passing volume could be low for Green Bay this week. I think Musgrave’s role in the passing game is big enough that I like his chances to overcome that low volume and finish as a top-12 tight end this week with the limited slate of games.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Aidan O’Connell, LV (Wk. 7: @Chi.): With just 26 teams in action this week, every starting QB is at least a borderline option in superflex leagues. That includes both rookie signal callers getting the nod in the Raiders-Bears tilt on Sunday, though both of those guys are close to the bottom of the list of the 26 starting options. The Raiders have played coy about whether it will be O’Connell or the veteran Brian Hoyer under center for them this week, but Raiders blogs are all insisting it’ll be O’Connell. If that proves to be true, I’d prioritize him over Bears’ starter Tyson Bagent if you’re deciding between the two. The Raiders have better weapons than the Bears, and a better defense. O’Connell already showed that he knows how to get the ball to those weapons, dishing out 63% of the targets in his first start to Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs. He threw the ball reasonably well in that game but was hampered by turnovers. He was intercepted once and lost two fumbles. Again, I wouldn’t start O’Connell out of anything more than desperation, but there’s a chance he won’t kill you against a Chicago defense that ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 4th-most QB points per game.
QB Tyson Bagent, CHI (Wk. 7: vs. LV): On the other side of the rookie vs rookie QB matchup, Bagent’s outlook isn’t quite as rosy as O’Connell’s. While the Bears’ defense has been among the worst in the league, the Raiders have at least been competent, ranking 16th in pass defense DVOA and allowing the 12th-fewest QB points per game. Bagent put up crooked passing numbers in college at D-II Shepherd University, but he won’t find NFL defenses to be nearly as forgiving, and he offers little upside as a runner. Bagent rushed for 25+ yards just twice last season in college. The rookie had some success moving the ball in relief of Justin Fields last Sunday, but he averaged just 5.9 yards per attempt and turned the ball over twice in only a quarter and a half of action. Like O’Connell, Bagent is an ‘only if you’re desperate’ superflex option this week. He might be my 26th ranked starting QB for the week (out of 26).
RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 7: vs. GB): As expected, the Broncos backfield devolved into a 3-man rotation in week 6 with Javonte Williams back in the lineup, but the split wasn’t nearly as bad for McLaughlin as it could’ve been. Samaje Perine handled the snaps in the 2-minute offense, but Javonte and McLaughlin split the rest of the work between just the two of them. Javonte handled 10 rushing attempts and McLaughlin handled 7 carries and 2 targets. That level of volume will make it hard to start either back with much confidence going forward, but they do get a favorable matchup in week 7. Green Bay has allowed the 5th-most running back points per game. They rank 26th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 5th-most running back receptions per game and 5th-most running back receiving yards as well. 8-10 touches are probably all you can count on from McLaughlin this week, but that could be enough for a useful fantasy week if you’re stuck due to byes/injuries.
RB Emari Demercado, ARI (Wk. 7: @Sea.): There was a lot of hype around Demercado last week after James Conner went on IR, but his outing was a huge letdown to fantasy players who were counting on him. He put up 17 scrimmage yards on just 3 touches and was outproduced by both Keaontay Ingram and Damien Williams. Something that may have been overlooked in the box score though is that Demercado led the backfield in snaps played and ran twice as many routes as Ingram and Dame combined. He played nearly all the 2-minute offense and long down & distance snaps. The Cardinals are 8-point underdogs this week, so they should be throwing plenty, and Demercado could lead the backfield in snaps and routes again. The question is will that turn into touches this week? There’s a chance that it does – the Seahawks have allowed the 9th-most RB receptions and 11th-most RB receiving yards per game - but this backfield is still too messy to count on more than a handful of PPR points out of Demercado.
RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 7: @Jax.): Miller gets listed on the borderline this week because it’s such a limited slate of options, but he logged just 3 touches in a game with mostly neutral game script last weekend. This week’s contest should have a similarly neutral script with the Saints favored by a point. Kendre will likely see just a handful of touches spelling Alvin Kamara, and that role could get reduced even further with Jamaal Williams returning this week.
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (Wk. 7: vs. Ari.): The Seahawks got tackle Charles Cross back last weekend, and that led to them playing more 11-personnel than they have all season. JSN logged a season-high 81% route participation rate and posted his best fantasy game of the year with 4 catches for 48 yards on 5 targets. He also saw his highest aDOT of the season, but that aDOT was still just 7.4 yards, and he was only the PPR WR45 for the week. Arizona is a good WR matchup, ranking 31st in pass defense DVOA and allowing the 7th-most WR points per game, but game script should allow the Seahawks to throw a bit less than last week. Seattle is favored by 8 points in this game. Smith-Njigba should be in line for a similar 4-40 kind of game against the Cardinals, and that’s just not a line that will win you your matchup. Keep an eye on the Seahawks’ injury report this week if you’re considering JSN. Both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are currently listed as questionable. If either player sits, it would be wheels up for JSN as a WR3 for week 7.
WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 7: @Den.): Reed gets a favorable matchup on paper against a Denver defense that ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA, but he also saw his lowest route participation rate of the season (59%) and just 2 targets in Green Bay’s last game with Christian Watson closer to full strength, and that was in a game with no Aaron Jones. The return of Jones this week muddies the passing game picture even further for the rookie, and the Packers would prefer to be a run-first team when they can be, and this week shapes up as a week where they can be. Denver is abysmal against the run too. With a limited role and limited team passing volume, this looks like a week where you should avoid Reed.
WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 7: vs. Atl.): Palmer was finally able to somewhat emerge from the shadows behind Chris Godwin and Mike Evans last week and earned a whopping 7 targets against the Lions. He caught just 2 of those targets for 47 yards, but it was his first game all year with more than 3 targets and more than 20 receiving yards. It’s worth noting that Evans and Godwin still combined for 47% of the team targets, and Palmer logged a lower route participation rate in week 6 than he did in the two previous games. Tampa was playing from behind all game and had their highest pass attempt total of the season, opening the door for Palmer’s big target day. Game script should be a bit more neutral this week, with Tampa favored by 2.5 points, so I wouldn’t expect the same overall passing volume, or the same target share for Palmer. It was a good sign to see him earn substantial targets in week 6, but I’d expect him back in the 3-4 target range this week. Atlanta allows the 5th-fewest WR points per game, and Evans and Godwin are the guys who are going to score those points, if anyone.
WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 7: vs. Cle.): Downs scored his first career TD last Sunday and has now earned 20 targets in the two full games Gardner Minshew has played, but this Cleveland defense is going to be a whole different challenge for the Colts’ passing game. Downs has averaged just 7.9 yards per catch on throws from Minshew and has made his living on short throws, and Cleveland ranks 2nd in the league in pass defense DVOA on short throws and hasn’t allowed more than 15 completions against them in any game this season. It’s going to be very difficult for Downs to compile his way to a useful PPR day against this defense unless they have an out-of-character game, and I wouldn’t count on Gardner Minshew to be the QB who solves this matchup. I’d keep the rookie parked on the bench this week even with so many players out on byes.
TE Michael Mayer, LV (Wk. 7: @Chi.): Mayer took another big step forward in week 6. He followed up a season-best game in week 5 by essentially doubling his production in week 6. Mayer is now the clear lead tight end for the Raiders after logging a 67% route participation rate and dropping a TE5 PPR finish on the Patriots. Mayer is on the streamer tight end radar going forward, but Aidan O’Connell at QB this week would make me lean against using him even in a good matchup. The Bears have allowed 6+ receptions to a tight end in 4 of the last 5 games, so Mayer is probably a top-15 option this week. Just know there’s a built-in risk if O’Connell gets the starting nod.
TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 7: @NE): Kincaid may return this week, but he’s still reached 30 receiving yards just once in 5 games played and faces a New England defense that has been in the top-12 at limiting tight end fantasy points. Kincaid’s production has been hurt by the way defenses are treating the Bills’ two tight end sets. Buffalo was in 12-personnel at the 2nd highest rate in the league during the first 5 weeks of the season but opposing defenses have treated it like a 3-wide set, usually lining up in nickel or dime against it rather than a base defense. The extra defensive backs on the field have removed the mismatches that Kincaid would get against base defenses. The Bills could force teams out of nickel and dime by running the ball successfully from those looks, but instead they rank 28th in the league in expected points added per rush when in 12-personnel. That’s going to make it hard to force defenses into base fronts and hard for Kincaid to increase his production going forward. I’d view him as a TE2 for this week.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 7: vs. NO): Bigsby is yet to reach 15 scrimmage yards in a game this season. He played his highest snap share of the season in week 6 but logged just 4 touches in the process. You’re just praying for a TD if you plug him into lineups, and the Saints are yet to allow an opposing running back to reach the end zone.
RB Christopher Brooks, MIA (Wk. 7: @Phi.): I was hopeful Brooks could pile up a useful fantasy week in garbage time last Sunday, but the Panthers took an early lead and limited just how much opportunity Brooks would get. He did see a handful of late carries in week 6 and broke off a highlight-reel angry run for 28 yards, but that run accounted for all his rushing yards on the day, and he was carted off with an ankle injury before the game was over. The team has called his injury ‘week-to-week’ so I’d be surprised if he’s able to play in week 7, but I wouldn’t consider him if he’s able to go. There won’t be much garbage time in a tough matchup with the Eagles, and Philly ranks 2nd in run defense DVOA.
RB Sean Tucker, TB (Wk. 7: vs. Atl.): Tucker was active and played 11 special teams snaps in week 6, but he seems to for now have fallen behind Ke’Shawn Vaughn for the RB2 role. Tucker didn’t play a single offensive snap against the Lions while Vaughn handled 6 carries and 2 targets behind Rachaad White. Tucker is off the fantasy radar for now.
RB Keaton Mitchell, BAL (Wk. 7: vs. Det.): Mitchell was activated off IR in week 6, but he didn’t play a single offensive snap. He’s not worth a roster spot.
WR Tre Tucker, LV (Wk. 7: @Chi.): Tucker had a breakout game of sorts in week 6, putting up 61 scrimmage yards on 3 touches while logging a season-high 55% route participation rate. He operated as the team’s WR3 in this game and seemed to have an especially strong connection with backup QB Brian Hoyer. Both of his receptions in this game came from Hoyer, as did another target that resulted in a defensive pass interference penalty. The playing time is a great sign for Tucker, but the problem is that reports have indicated that the Raiders will turn to rookie Aidan O’Connell at QB rather than the veteran Hoyer with Jimmy Garoppolo unable to play. O’Connell leaned heavily on Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs in his first start, and I’d expect he’ll do the same in this matchup. The Bears do rank just 30th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws, so there’s a chance that the speedy Tucker gets loose for a deep ball in this one, but I’d err on the side of benching him in fantasy lineups.
WR Marvin Mims, Jr., DEN (Wk. 7: vs. GB): It pains me to have to keep listing Mims here when we’ve seen the kind of tantalizing upside he possesses, but the Broncos continue to stubbornly keep him off the field. Mims has run just 19 routes in the last two games and garnered just 1 target that he turned into a 4-yard catch. Sean Payton was asked about getting him onto the field more, and Payton mentioned that it’s difficult with Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton ahead of him, seemingly not realizing that Brandon Johnson is also playing comfortably ahead of Mims. The Packers do rank 26th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws, so there is a sliver of hope that Mims gets loose for a deep ball in this game, but it's just not something you can count on. A goose egg is entirely possible.
WRs Quentin Johnston & Derius Davis, LAC (Wk. 7: @KC): The injury to Mike Williams hasn’t resulted in the boost for the rookie Johnston that we hoped it would. There is a strong chance that the Chargers will have to throw quite a bit to keep pace with the Chiefs this week as 5.5-point underdogs, but Johnston hasn’t hit 20 receiving yards in a game yet and has maxed out at 3 targets. At some point those numbers should get better, but we’ve seen nothing to indicate that it happens this week. Fellow rookie Derius Davis got some gadget usage in week 4 in the first game after the Williams injury, but in week 6 after their bye, he had fallen behind Keelan Doss on the depth chart. Davis ran just one route on Monday night.
WR Demario Douglas, NE (Wk. 7: vs. Buf.): Douglas was cleared from his concussion this week, so he should return, and he’s shown an ability to earn targets when he’s on the field (27% target per route run rate), but I don’t really trust any parts of the New England passing game to produce against a Buffalo defense that ranks 8th in pass defense DVOA.
WR Ronnie Bell, SF (Wk. 7: @Min.): Bell shouldn’t be in consideration even if Deebo Samuel sits in this game. He hasn’t topped 2 targets in any game this season.
TE Brenton Strange, JAX (Wk. 7: @NO): This is my obligatory ‘mention a rookie tight end because he scored a TD last week’ installment for this week. Strange saw a season-high snap share in week 6 as the Jaguars used more 12-personnel to cover for the absence of Zay Jones, and he totaled 2 catches for 27 yards and a TD on 3 targets. That was good enough to finish as the PPR TE11 in a low-scoring fantasy week, but he ran just 10 routes and shouldn’t be counted on to repeat that without a jump in playing time. He’s not a realistic consideration in lineups.
Rookies on Byes in Week 7: QB Bryce Young, CAR, QB CJ Stroud, HOU, QB Will Levis, TEN, RB Tyjae Spears, TEN, RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR, WRs Tank Dell & Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Andre Iosivas, CIN, TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL
Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: QB Anthony Richardson, IND, QB Clayton Tune, ARI, RB De’Von Achane, MIA, RB Eric Gray, NYG, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, RB Elijah Dotson, LAC, WR Dontayvion Wicks, GB, WR Cedric Tillman, CLE, WR Kayshon Boutte, NE, TE Darnell Washington, PIT
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Malik Cunningham, NE (Wk. 7: vs. Buf.): Cunningham isn’t someone you can plug into lineups this week, but he’s an intriguing bench stash in deeper superflex leagues now that he’s been anointed as the Pats’ QB2. The New England offense has been a mess, and Bill Belichick’s talk about the offense needing a full restart makes me think it might only take a couple more duds out of Mac Jones before they’re willing to try Cunningham as the starter. In the meantime, the Patriots will probably look to get him involved through sub packages and gadget plays that allow him to show off his playmaking ability. Cunningham was a true dual threat QB at Louisville, throwing for over 9,000 yards and rushing for over 3,000 in his college career, and we know how impactful that kind of dual threat skill can be for fantasy, especially in a season where passing stats are down as a whole. He shouldn’t be on the wire in most superflex dynasty leagues.
RB Zach Evans, LAR (Wk. 7: vs. Pit.): Evans has a chance to be thrust into a major role this week against a Pittsburgh defense that’s allowed the 7th-most RB points per game. Ronnie Rivers was placed on IR this week and Kyren Williams is expected to miss multiple games, leaving the Rams with a huge void at running back. Evans would be the next man up, but they also elevated Royce Freeman from the practice squad and signed Darrell Henderson and Myles Gaskin as well. How they divvy up the work this week is anyone’s guess, but I like Evans’ chances of performing well if he gets an extended opportunity. Darrell Henderson has familiarity with the offense, and Sean McVay does have a history of giving a big workload to a veteran back signed off the street. In 2018 when Todd Gurley was injured, the Rams signed CJ Anderson and gave him 87 touches over a 4-game stretch. Anderson did have a more extensive track record of 20+ touch workloads than Darrell Henderson does, so I’m not sure I’d expect quite that same kind of role here. The most likely outcome is that Henderson and Evans split touches this week until a hot hand emerges. I’d have a hard time plugging either player into lineups this week, but since this is a multi-week absence for the starting backs, both are worth waiver pickups if you’re struggling for RB starters.
RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 7: vs. Ari.): Charbonnet played his lowest snap share of the season in week 5 and logged just 4 touches, but his busiest games of the year were Seattle’s two multi-score victories. He saw 8+ opportunities (carries + targets) and put up at least 40 scrimmage yards in both games that Seattle won by more than a touchdown. This week Seattle is an 8-point favorite, and the Cardinals rank 29th in run defense DVOA and allow the 3rd-most RB points per game. Kenneth Walker III should be a slam dunk RB1 in this matchup, but Charbonnet should see enough work in this plus matchup to have some sneaky RB3 upside if you’re in a pinch due to bye weeks or injuries.
WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 7: vs. Was.): Don’t look now, but Hyatt has now logged 3 straight games with the 2nd-most routes run among New York’s wide receivers and gets a very favorable matchup against a porous Commanders secondary. Hyatt’s production hasn’t really matched his boost in playing time, but if there was ever a week to throw a dart at that happening, this is it. The Commanders have allowed the 3rd-most WR points per game and rank 24th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws, coughing up 22 completions of 20+ yards and 6 completions of 50+ yards in just 6 games. They’ve given up deep balls to ancillary targets like Marvin Mims, Brandon Johnson, Rondale Moore and Gabe Davis. Hyatt is still just a boom-or-bust option, especially if Daniel Jones is back under center, but this feels like a week where we could see a boom. Hyatt costs just $2,000 for showdown contests on DraftKings. That’s a lower price tag than teammate Isaiah Hodgins has, even though Hyatt ran 4 times as many routes as Hodgins last week.
WR Tyler Scott, CHI (Wk. 7: vs. LV): With Chase Claypool shipped off to Miami and Equanimeous St. Brown on IR, Scott has moved up into the WR3 role in the offense. He logged a 66% route participation rate in week 6 and seemed to have a rapport with backup QB Tyson Bagent. Bagent attempted 14 passes in relief of Justin Fields against the Vikings. 6 of those went to DJ Moore, but Scott was his 2nd-most targeted receiver with 3 targets. That doesn’t include a throw in Scott’s direction that resulted in a 36-yard pass interference penalty. The rookie finished the game with just 12 yards, but if Bagent continues looking in his direction this week against a middling Raiders’ defense, Scott could be an intriguing option in what should be a messy showdown DFS contest with two rookie signal callers.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
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