Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

7 QBs over 30 Points

No tricks, no BS – there’s even an 8^th guy who may reach this level tonight. So far this week, there are 7 QBs that put up at least 30 points in standard scoring, led by usual suspect Mitchell Trubisky. OK, maybe he’s never even come close to these heights. Heck, his 43.46 points this season is more than he put up in the first three weeks combined. Now, I’m not sure that everyone should rush out to place claims on Trubes, but he did finally show what the Bears offensive ceiling is, and it’s actually impressive. He even broke the modern Bears QB record with 6 TD passes – nobody even had 5 of them since Sid Luckman threw for 7 back in 1943. On the other side of the ball Sunday, we saw the end of the 2018 installment of Fitzmagic – this guy’s fun, but I suspect we might have seen the last Ryan Fitzpatrick playing well as a starting QB (barring injury). Jameis Winston is ready to lick his fingers and eat some W’s (just….gross) when they return to action in Week 6. Farewell, Bucs – we hardly knew ye.

158.3 Passer Rating

Last Thursday, we were treated to real football. Part of that real football game was the most perfect passing performance, statistically speaking, we’ve ever seen. Jared Goff’s performance was the 70^th time that a QB posted a perfect passer rating. It was perhaps the best perfect game ever, featuring both the most passing attempts (33) and passing yards (465) of any perfect passer rating game in history. Goff added 5 TDs to finish with a cool 39.3 fantasy points. Goff is definitely trending up and is now a top-4 QB in fantasy through one quarter of the season. The Rams WRs were the big winners here – each of their top 3 guys, Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods all put up over 16 points – 100+ yards and 1+ TDs each. The fantasy value on the Rams is overflowing and you should get in on it now before getting priced out of the market for trade value.

567 Made Field Goals

As promised last week, Adam Vinatieri has earned his way back into the discussion with his record breaking performance on Sunday. Vinatieri was 2/2 on FG kicks and has now passed Morten Anderson for sole possession of the all-time record for FGs made. A deeper dive into his stats (a list of all his made FGs is available here) shows that he also has 56 more made FGs in the playoffs, including a whopping 14 in 2006 alone. He’s made 40 FGs of 50+ yards. He’s made 12 FGs in overtime, including his one on Sunday. 160 of those FGs were kicks that gave his team the lead. He even has one passing TD to his name. Vinatieri deserves to be a first ballot hall of famer, and it’s been fun watching his career – heck, him playing even pre-dates my interest in the NFL. In tribute, 13 other kickers also put up 10 or more points in a week filled with offense.

240 Yards from Scrimmage

The anemic Cowboys offense got a shot of 50cc’s of pure Zeke on Sunday against the Lions. Ezekiel Elliot set a career high mark with 240 yards from scrimmage. He added 1 receiving TD, bringing his fantasy total up to an even 30 points. Those 30 are good for only 9^th most points this week – offense is increasing everywhere. Sunday, Zeke touched the ball a whopping 29 times, a trend that has to continue if Dallas wishes to win any more games this year. Their offense has looked so bad in the first 3 games of the season, that pushing more than 50% of the offense (Sunday was 29 touches for Zeke, 23 for the rest of the team) is the only path to victory. This is unsustainable over the course of 16 games, but it will result in tons of fantasy production for Zeke. He has 51% of the team’s touches and is the 4^th best fantasy RB so far this season. I expect him to continue with his 100 yards and/or 1 TD M.O. most of the season, but he is vulnerable to a dud game because of the team that’s around him.

1^st Regular Season Td

Titans WR Corey Davis finally recorded his first regular season touchdown. After finding the end zone twice in the postseason last year, Davis finally got one that counts on the regular stat sheet. Davis had a hell of a game, grabbing 9 receptions on 15 targets for 161 yards and the game winning TD in overtime. Davis had a whopping 15 points on the season going into the week, and put up 22.1. With the sudden departure (not a Leftovers reference) of Rishard Matthews last week, Davis is in line to continue getting a heavy workload. It helps that his QB Marcus Mariota seems healthy, so this connection should continue to grow. Next up is the Bills, so the 3-1 Titans should keep rolling.

With the NFL season yet to see a significant upset, there still remains 1065 of the 1499 members surviving in the pool. Last week we just squeaked out a victory when the Dallas Cowboys defeated the Miami Dolphins 31-6.

I think I am seeing a trend developing here, and will be picking the San Diego Chargers of Los Angeles to defeat the woeful Dolphins this week. Hey, if it were not for teams playing divisional opponents twice a year, you could pick against Miami every week and you'd be right. This game checks off a couple boxes for me, resulting in the pick.

First, the Chargers are the biggest favorite of the week at -14.5, which they will cover. You also have a desperate Charger team that has let two games slip away that they should have won. Much like the Eagles last night, the Chargers will be heavily motivated for a good showing for fear of falling to 1-3 and getting left in the dust of the Chiefs who are looking to go 4-0.

Philip Rivers has too much pride to be part of the franchise that loses to two 1-15 teams in his career and will look to reignite the Charger Super Bowl hype. Lucky for me, this will be one of the local games for the San Diego market so I will get to witness first hand just how bad the Dolphins are.

Godspeed Mr. Rosen.

After 3 weeks of play, we can always draw some conclusions based on trends that are observed over the first few games. In this case, I've chosen a few players that have downward trends associated with their performances in Weeks 1-3. We'll see what comes to pass, but don't ignore the trends once they reach 3+ games - after a certain period of time they are statistically likely to continue or level off rather than to reverse course. Is it just about the matchups? Is it about a certain style of play or what schemes the coaches are running? Draw your own conclusions, of course, but use the information below to help with that as you see fit.

Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL) – Surprise! Jackson finished the 2019 fantasy season as the #1 QB overall with a ridiculous 421.7 fantasy points. The next best was Dak Prescott with 348.9 points. Crazy, right? Well, so far in 2020, Jackson is the #13 QB overall with only 19.8 fantasy points per game (59.3 total). For reference, the QBs on the top like Wilson, Allen, Mahomes, Prescott, and Murray are all averaging around 30 fantasy points per game through the first three games.

Week 1 (vs. CLE): 20/25, 80% comp, 275 yards, 3 TDs, 7/45 rushing, 0 TDs – 27.5 fpts

Week 2 (@ HOU): 18/24, 75% comp, 204 yards, 1 TD, 16/54 rushing, 0 TDs – 17.56 fpts

Week 3 (vs. KC): 15/28, 53.6% comp, 97 yards, 1 TD, 9/83 rushing, 0 TDs – 14.18 fpts

What information can we garner from these stats? Well, Jackson has been trending down in several categories game over game: completions, completion percentage, and passing yards. Granted the Texans and Chiefs have better passing defenses than the Browns so far this season (at #20 and #17 highest fantasy points against QBs respectively vs. #10 for the Browns), but it’s disconcerting to see him not even break into the top 10 when he was being drafted in as high as the 1^st and 2^nd rounds of fantasy drafts earlier this year. Ouch. All of that said, what is the prognosis for Jackson over the coming weeks? He plays @WAS in Week 4 (#14 fantasy points against QBs), vs. CIN in Week 5 (#25 fantasy points against QBS), and @PHI in Week 6 (#19 fantasy points against QBs). Does it get better? Not really... in the weeks that follow, the Ravens play PIT, IND, NE, and TEN. You are going to keep Jackson on your squad because of his rushing and big play ability, but it is impossible to ignore this downturn. Week 4 is Jackson’s chance to bust out with a big fantasy game and experts still have him on top of the QB heap, but if it is a miss as well there is something not quite right in Baltimore. Run-first is a philosophy we can deal with – run-always is a problem. Marquise Brown is also tied in to this directly with Jackson as the WR1 in Baltimore (12.6, 6.7, 2.3)

Kenyan Drake (RB, ARI) – Drake had a fabulous finish to the 2019 season. He was traded to the Cardinals before Week 9 last year and immediately made his mark on the offense, putting up 162 all-purpose yards and a TD on the ground. Later that same season in Weeks 15-17, he amassed 363 rushing yards along with 7 TDs over those 3 games. It was hard to believe, but those points were very real. Especially to fantasy team managers that were playing against Drake late in the post-season. So far this year, though, he is the #24 RB overall with 32.4 fantasy points (half PPR) which is an average of 10.8 per game. For a running back being drafted in the 2^nd or 3^rd round earlier this year, that is very disappointing. Let us look at the first 3 games of the 2020 season:

Week 1 (@ SF): 16/60 rushing, 1 TD, 2/5 receiving, 0 TDs – 13.5 fpts

Week 2 (vs. WAS): 20/86 rushing, 0 TDs, 2/9 receiving, 0 TDs – 10.5 fpts

Week 3 (vs. DET): 18/73 rushing, 0 TDs, 1/6 receiving, 0 TDs – 8.4 fpts

What can we learn from this information… well, his amount of touches has been consistent – averaging around 20 per game, so he has the opportunities available to him. He has not gotten very much work in the passing game with Chase Edmonds being a factor (8 receptions including 1 rec. TD in the first 3 games), but the major problem with fantasy production has been his inability to break big plays during the game. This may all change this week, of course. Going up against the Carolina Panthers in Week 4 provides a terrific matchup. The Panthers are giving up 32.2 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. If Drake cannot snap out of this funk in Week 4, his value will plummet, and we may see Edmonds start to chip away at his touches. If I had to bet money on this matchup, though, and I basically am since I’m both playing him and playing against him in multiple fantasy matchups this week, I would say we’re about to see Drake’s biggest game of the season. Could be 15-20 fantasy points in this trend-breaker.

Robby Anderson (WR, CAR) – A brand new weapon for the Panthers, Anderson had more than 100 yards in both weeks 1 and 2. The tallest of the starting receivers in Carolina at 6’3” and also coming with a bonus sub-4.4 40-yard dash that we saw often with his time on the Jets.

Week 1 (vs. LV): 6/8, 114 yds, 1 TD – 22.4 fpts

Week 2 (@ TB): 9/10, 109 yds, 0 TD – 13.4 fpts

Week 3 (@ LAC): 5/5, 55 yds, 0 TD – 8 fpts

With the Chargers focusing on taking D.J. Moore away, Anderson again took a large amount of the team’s targets (the most, actually) and was able to haul in all of them for 5 receptions. The Panthers were able to cruise to a victory using mostly Mike Davis and Joey Slye, but we should continue to see Anderson utilized in the passing game and developing more chemistry with Bridgewater from game to game. Anderson is being used constantly on this team and less of the boom/bust target he was on the Jets, so he seems to be a quality WR3 candidate going forward. His next matchup in Week 4 is against a stingy Arizona passing defense allowing only 15.5 fantasy points per game to WRs, but Week 5 looks like a much tastier matchup against the Falcons who have the 3^rd worst passing D in the league.

Three weeks are in the books, and that means that it's time for us to check out some player trends. After all, in a row does a trend make. Or at least that's what Dave says. Anyways, there's been a ton of points this season, so let's take this time to look at the players who are consistently improving on a weekly basis. These are guys who are both studs that you might expect to see atop the fantasy rankings, and guys who are moving their way up from the depths of the preseason ADP charts.

James Robinson (RB-JAX) – Wk 1 vs IND – 9.5, Wk 2 @ TEN – 19.5, Wk 3 vs MIA – 27.9. Robinson was the lone bright spot on the Jaguars last week. He has trended up for three weeks in a row in lots of categories – total yards, total points, touchdowns scored and even receptions. He is averaging 4.9 yards per carry, he is in the top 20 for both carries and receptions. He’s the overall RB5 on the season. There’s almost no competition for him at his position on the Jaguars, so Robinson looks like he needs to be an every week starter. Coming up, Jacksonville goes to Cincy and Houston, followed by playing Detroit at home before their bye week. All of these teams are in the top 7 when it comes to giving up the most fantasy points to opposing RBs. Now is the time to try and acquire Robinson, as his value is only bound to go up.

Jerick McKinnon (RB-SF) – Wk1 vs ARI – 11.9, Wk 2 @ NYJ – 13.7, Wk 3 @ NYG – 15.2. McKinnon has scored a touchdown in all 3 games so far this season, a great trend for fantasy football. It may even hold for a while considering how banged up the 49ers backfield is. He was used sparingly in the first two weeks, getting only 9 total touches, though he was also used in the return game a bit. With nobody else to take carries from him last week, he had 17 total touches. That’s a usage rate that I expect to continue as long as Coleman and Mostert are sidelined. Even when they come back, it seems as though McKinnon will see some touches, and if his knack for scoring touchdowns continues, it would be silly to keep him on the sidelines. Coming up the 49ers have 3 straight home games against Philly, Miami and the Rams, all of whom are middle of the pack when it comes to giving up points to opposing RBs.

Justin Jefferson (WR-MIN) – Wk 1 vs GB – 3.6, Wk 2 @ IND – 5.9, Wk 3 vs TEN – 27. Jefferson was the Vikings 1^st round pick this year and he has been thrown right into the offense. He’s increased his receptions, targets and yards each week, topping out last week with 7 receptions on 9 targets for 175 yards. He also found the end zone and his 27 points made him the WR2 on the week. There is a Stefon Diggs sized hole on the Vikings offense, and Jefferson looks like he might fill it very nicely. Coming up are games at Houston and Seattle, followed by Atlanta at home and then the bye week. Houston is halfway respectable against the WR, but Seattle and Atlanta are giving up the 1^st and 3^rd most points to opposing WRs, respectively. It’s time to get Jefferson on your team and into your lineup.

Keenan Allen (WR-LAC) – Wk 1 @ CIN – 5.7, Wk 2 vs KC – 13.1, Wk 3 vs CAR – 23.7. Allen is known as one of the players with the largest share of his team’s targets on an annual basis. He is currently tied with DeAndre Hopkins with a league leading 37 targets. His targets, receptions and yardage have all gone up week to week. Last week he added on a touchdown to make him WR4 on the week and WR12 on the season. Allen catching 13 passes on 19 targets from rookie Justin Herbert is a great sign as well. The distribution of the targets can suddenly shift when a new QB enters the scene, however it looks like Herbert is firmly focused on his top WR now. Upcoming games in Tampa and New Orleans, followed by hosting the Jets will all be tough. Tampa gives up the 12^th fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs, and they’re the least stingy of that group. I guess we finally found something that the Jets don’t suck at. Still, Allen is a solid WR1 and needs to be in your lineup every week, regardless of who is at QB for the Chargers.