Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Wasn’t it great to have real live regular season NFL action back? We finally have some real game data on this year’s rookie class, and at least for one week the results were surprising. Saquon Barkley and Royce Freeman performed about as expected, but everyone else was a surprise. The other standout rookies of week 1 were Sam Darnold, Phillip Lindsay, Dante Pettis, and Will Dissly. You probably hadn’t heard of at least two of those 4 prior to Sunday. As for the more heralded rookies, it was less than a memorable week 1. DJ Moore, Nick Chubb, Kerryon Johnson, Rashaad Penny, Calvin Ridley, James Washington, and Dallas Goedert were all pretty quiet in their openers. While I expect things to pick up for them eventually, most of them will be tough to trust in the immediate future. Let’s take a look at what to expect from week 2. It looks like another week with a lot of guys to sit and a decent number of sleepers…
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 2: @Dal.): Don’t overthink this. His volume might be capped just a bit by the Cowboys’ style of play. They slow the game down as much as possible, but I expect his talent to shine through again. He’s got too high of a ceiling to leave him on your bench this week.
Borderline Rookies:
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Oak.): Although it was his teammate and fellow rookie Phillip Lindsay who got most of the notice on Sunday, Freeman had himself a pretty solid debut as well. He looks like the clear lead back on early downs. He carried 15 times for 71 yards, and likely won’t be dealing with quite as much competition for carries from Lindsay in future weeks. The roles look like they’re going to shake out with Lindsay being more of a third down back. He doesn’t have the size to hold up to 15 carries per week over a full season. The matchup this week is a decent one. Oakland’s defense is a shell of what it once was, and Freeman should finish as a low-end RB2 in standard leagues, and a reasonable flex option in PPR leagues.
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Oak.): As I just mentioned with Freeman above, Lindsay is getting a lot of love in waiver wire columns this week, but his performance against the Seahawks may be the ceiling for Phillip. At just 5’8”, 190, Lindsay isn’t built to be a primary ball carrier. He’s going to get most of his work as a 3rd-down receiving back. His week one results were more due to him having the hot hand in the opener. He’ll be a weekly flex option in PPR leagues.
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 2: @SF): LeGarrette Blount is dealing with a shoulder injury that could limit his snaps, and Kerryon gets to face a 49ers defense that is without Reuben Foster for one more week. Week 1 was less than ideal for Johnson, but I like his fantasy prospects for this week better than fellow high rookie picks Nick Chubb and Rashaad Penny. I’m still a believer that Kerryon will assert himself early in the season, and the Lions will be eager to wash the taste of their embarrassing loss to the Jets away. He’s still not more than a low-end flex option this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 2: vs. LAC): Allen will become the 2nd Buffalo Bills rookie QB to make his first career start against the Chargers in as many years. Nathan Peterman famously threw 5 first-half interceptions in his start last year. While I don’t expect things to be that bad for Allen, he has a worse offensive line and arguably worse weapons than Peterman was working with in 2017. Don’t expect a usable stat line unless it’s heavily padded by rushing numbers.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 2: @NO): Chubb carried just 3 times in the season opener, compared to 22 totes for Carlos Hyde and 5 for Duke Johnson. There’s no reason to expect a big jump in workload this week, and therefore no reason to start him against the Saints. His time will come eventually, but for now the Browns are content with Hyde leading the way.
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 2: vs. Chi.): To say that Penny was inefficient last week compared to Chris Carson would be a drastic understatement. Both players had 7 carries. Carson turned them into more than 7 yards per carry. Penny turned them into 8 yards. Penny did have some receiving game usage and will likely stay involved this week, but he got the opposite of a vote of confidence from coach Pete Carroll this week and faces a pretty feisty Bears’ defense. I’d keep him parked on the bench for this week.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Oak.): For the time being, Sutton will be nothing more than a weekly low-cost DFS dart throw. The Broncos passing attack has long been focused on Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas, and week one showed that isn’t changing this season. Manny and DT combined for 21 of Denver’s 39 passing targets. Sutton will be battling for scraps most weeks. There may be some weeks where he comes up big, but it will be tough to guess when they’ll happen. His future looks bright, but his path is currently a little roadblocked.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 2: vs. Car.): Ridley was all but invisible in the opener. He’s not nearly high enough in the pecking order for targets to start him in any format at this point.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 2: @Atl.): Moore played just 17 snaps and wasn’t targeted once in the opener. It’s a stunning turn of events for a guy who had a good camp and was a first-round draft pick. The Panthers are bound to get him more involved eventually, and may do so as early as this week with Olsen out. I’m waiting until I see it on the field to be willing to play Moore.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 2: vs. NYG): Like DJ Moore, Gallup was curiously under-utilized in week 1. Gallup played with the first string throughout the preseason and looked like he had the most upside of any receiver on the team, but he ran just 17 routes in week 1 and caught his only target for 9 yards. I need to see him get more playing time before I can suggest doing anything other than sitting him.
WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 2: @LAR): A lot was made of Christian Kirk losing out to Chad Williams for the number 2 WR job in Arizona, but it looks like both guys are going to be pretty useless for fantasy purposes for the time being. Kirk caught just 1 pass for 4 yards in the opener, and Williams didn’t catch any. The Rams boast one of the best sets of corners in the league. Keep Kirk under wraps this week.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 2: @TB): Goedert was a big disappointment in week 1, catching just 1 of the 3 targets he saw in the opener. I thought he’d see much more work with Alshon Jeffrey sidelined, but it was not to be. I’m not that optimistic he’ll be more involved this week against a Bucs team that is more vulnerable to WRs than TEs. Tampa allowed just the 3rd-fewest points to tight ends last year, and the most to WRs. They lost CB Vernon Hargreaves for the year in the opener, and also gave up the 3rd-most WR points in week 1. Look for Nelson Agholor to pile up catches again, and don’t be surprised when Mike Wallace posts a surprising big game.
TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 2: @NYJ): Gesicki caught just 1 pass in the opener after being talked up by head coach Adam Gase in the preseason. I wouldn’t expect much more production this week at the Meadowlands.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 2: vs. Mia.): Darnold threw a pick-6 on his first NFL pass attempt, but everything after that went his way on Monday night. The Dolphins were 29th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA last year, and Darnold gets Jermaine Kearse back healthy this week. He should be able to duplicate what he did Monday, and that makes him an interesting option in 2-QB leagues or as a cheaper DFS play.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 2: @Jax.): Keep an eye on the Pats injury updates here. Rex Burkhead surprisingly popped up on the injury report in the concussion protocol Wednesday. Michel has been getting in limited practices so far this week, and I think the Pats will push for him to play if Burkhead can’t get cleared. The Jaguars stingy defense has been vulnerable to RBs putting up fantasy points on them, and Michel has a chance at a solid debut. Saquon put up 128 scrimmage yards and a TD against these same Jaguars in week 1, and Michel should be the primary rusher if he’s able to play and Burkhead sits.
RBs Nyheim Hines & Jordan Wilkins, IND (Wk. 2: @Was.): Marlon Mack has been getting in limited practices this week. If he plays, downgrade Wilkins to a bench player, but Hines should still have a role. The diminutive speedster was targeted 9 times last week in the opener, and figures to have a prominent role in the passing game regardless of Mack’s health. Wilkins remains a fairly inexpensive starting back for DFS purposes if Mack sits again, and he faces a team that was among the worst in the league in Football Outsiders’ defense DVOA stat a season ago (29th). Hines should be rostered in just about all PPR leagues with 12 or more teams.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 2: vs. Sea.): I’m not telling you to start Miller this week, but if you’re in a deeper league and someone dropped him, or he’s sitting out there on the waiver wire, he’s worth a pickup. Miller did a lot of things right last Sunday in Green Bay that don’t show up on the stat sheet, but coaches love. If he continues to do those things, the targets will come. You might be able to find him at the right price in dynasty leagues if he has a couple more stat lines like he posted in week 1.
WR Dante Pettis, SF (Wk. 2: vs. Det.): This is contingent on Marquise Goodwin being sidelined for week 2. Goodwin needs his blazing speed to be effective, so I doubt the 49ers will let him play through his thigh bruise if they think it hampers him at all. He’s not practicing as of Wednesday. Pettis made a spectacular TD catch filling in for Goodwin in week 1, and if he fills in again this week he likely avoids Darius Slay’s coverage. He should be an excellent cheap DFS play for week 2 if Goodwin is sidelined.
TE Will Dissly, SEA (Wk. 2: @Chi.): Dissly had himself a game last week and is undoubtedly a hot name on the waiver wire this week. While I do believe that game will prove to be more of a fluke than a trend, I do think that Dissly has established himself as the top fantasy TE in Seattle. His main competition, Nick Vannett, has just 167 yards and 1 TD in 25 career games. Dissly had 103 and a score in just one game. He’s worth a pickup in deeper leagues, especially with so many question marks at the position this early in the season.
TE Ian Thomas, CAR (Wk. 2: @Atl.): Thomas was targeted just twice in the opener, but he should step in as the starter with Greg Olsen sidelined by a broken foot. That should make him worth a pickup in deeper leagues even though Christian McCaffrey and Devin Funchess will demand the majority of the targets in this run-heavy offense. The matchup this week is a good one for the tight end with both of Atlanta’s starting safeties injured (Keanu Neal & Keion Jones). He’s worth a DFS dart throw in tournaments.
TE Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 2: @Cin.): Andrews announced himself as a name to know for deeper dynasty leagues last week. He was quiet throughout the preseason, but he found his way to a 3-31 line in a game where the Ravens didn’t have to throw in the second half. While it’s true that Hayden Hurst has been out, and Nick Boyle and Maxx Williams were just as involved last week as Andrews, the Oklahoma product has more upside as a receiver than any of them. He’s worth keeping an eye on in dynasty formats, especially those with TE premium scoring.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of your tougher lineup decisions this week involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report this week. There are a lot of players who have questionable tags at this point in the week, and the last thing you want is to start an inactive player. Feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you want to yell at me or have any specific questions. As always: good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome to this special DFS focused edition of the Rookie Report! I’ll have the normal Rookie Report out later this week, but this week’s Thursday night game doesn’t have any rookies you should be considering for your season-long lineup, and probably shouldn’t consider for any larger slate DFS tournaments either. With that in mind I wanted to do something a little special this week and give you a little intel on each of the rookies suiting up for the Giants and Eagles in case you’re playing the Thursday night showdown DFS slate. The prices are pretty low on most of these guys, so if you find the right one to play it can give you extra cap space to pay up for the higher priced players to go with them. Here is a rundown of each rookie playing Thursday night listed in order by their DraftKings price tag for Thursday night:
QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (DraftKings Price: $6,000): The Eagles have started to make a point to get Hurts more involved with a handful of gadget plays each week, averaging about 4 snaps per game over the last 5 weeks. Given his explosive athleticism, he can turn just a few snaps into a handful of fantasy points on the right night, but he’s not priced like a player who would only play a handful of snaps. H’s priced like a quarterback. About the only real chance he has of returning value at his price tag would be if Carson Wentz gets hurt or benched early on. I wouldn’t count on either of those happening. Even if Hurts does get extended playing time, the Giants surprisingly allow the 5th-fewest QB points per game.
Verdict: Nowhere near worth the price tag
WR John Hightower, PHI (DraftKings Price: $1,200): Hightower has played 60% of Philly’s offensive snaps in each of the last 4 weeks, and finally hit on a big play last week with a 50-yard catch against the Ravens. The expected return of DeSean Jackson is going to put a dent in his playing time this week, but I don’t expect DeSean to walk into a full-time role in his first game back. Philly may ease him back in on some sort of pitch count. Hightower’s aDOT of 21.7 for the year means the team likes to target him deep. He could produce a useful night on just a couple catches. The Giants don’t give up a ton of big passing plays, allowing just 1 completion of 40+ yards on the year, and the 8th-fewest 20+ yard completions. Hightower obviously has a low floor, but probably the highest ceiling of any of the rookies playing on Thursday.
Verdict: Boom-or bust dart throw that I’d like a bit more if his price was below $1,000
WR Austin Mack, NYG (DraftKings Price: $400): Mack seemingly came out of nowhere last week to play 75% of the offensive snaps against Washington – 6 more snaps than Golden Tate played. He was targeted only once though, and he turned that target into just 1 yard. Washington has been one of the tougher pass defenses in the league, but that still doesn’t exactly instill confidence in Mack going forward. The Eagles are a much better matchup. They rank 27th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA and allow the 7th-most points per game to opposing wide receivers (half-PPR). Mack seems to have surpassed Damion Ratley and CJ Board on the depth chart and will serve as a starter this week assuming Sterling Shepard doesn’t return from IR. Darius Slay is likely to shadow Darius Slayton in this game, so that should open up some opportunities for Golden Tate and Mack. Mack wasn’t very productive at Ohio State, never reaching 400 yards in a season in college, but you could argue it was a crowded WR group. He’s a big bodied WR that profiles as more of a possession receiver than deep threat, so he’ll need to see a bit of volume to put up many fantasy points. That volume seems unlikely to come.
Verdict: Low ceiling dart throw who could fall into a handful of points
RB Jason Huntley, PHI (DraftKings Price: $200): With the absence of Miles Sanders this week, there should be some available running back touches for the Eagles. Boston Scott will certainly assume the lead back duties. When Sanders was out in week 1, Scott and Corey Clement split the snaps 38 to 25, but at that point Huntley had only been on the team for a week. He should be more up to speed now. Clement still served as the number two back last week after Sanders went down, but knowing ahead of time that Miles won’t play could mean they make a point to get Huntley into the rotation. Doug Pederson was ecstatic to claim Huntley off waivers from Detroit before the season started, and this may be the best opportunity he’s had to get him on the field. The Giants rank 15th in run defense DVOA, and allow the 13th-most RB points per game. Huntley is an explosive speed back (4.37 forty-yard dash at his pro day) who averaged 6 yards per carry and 44.5 catches per year in his last 3 seasons at New Mexico State. If he’s able to get on the field for 15-20 snaps, He could turn out to be a bargain at his price tag.
Verdict: My favorite play of the rookies in this matchup. Very little risk with enough upside to roll the dice.
WR Quez Watkins, PHI (DraftKings Price: $200): With Jackson expected back for week 7, Watkins will be lucky if he’s on the field for more than a couple snaps. He played a season-high 15 snaps last week, but is yet to record his first target. You probably shouldn’t bet actual money that his first target and first fantasy points will come Thursday night.
Verdict: Shouldn’t be near your lineups, even at $200 price tag
That’s all I’ve got for Thursday night. Keep in mind that the optimal Thursday lineup may not include any of these guys, but with a single-game slate everyone is in play. My overall favorite plays for this game are the two defenses, Golden Tate, Boston Scott, and Jake Elliott, but the rookies are worth looking into as well. Make sure to check back for the rest of the Rookie Report later this week, hopefully your Thursday night slate bets are a success. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve now officially hit the halfway point of the NFL season, but we’re getting close to the stretch run for the fantasy regular season. This is a good point to evaluate your team and try to make some trades to shore up your weaknesses, but hopefully you do that in a more thoughtful way than the way the Colts have handled their head coaching situation. The Colts made news this week by firing Frank Reich, and then hiring Jeff Saturday as their interim head coach. Saturday becomes the first NFL head coach ever to have zero prior experience coaching at the college or NFL level. Making things better, the team didn’t realize until after Saturday was hired that they didn’t have a single coach on the staff who had ever served as an offensive play-caller. They settled on assistant QB coach Parks Frazier to handle those duties this week. What could go wrong?
Week 9 was also a messy week for the rookies outside of the top names that have been consistently producing. Malik Willis had another shit show of a performance in his second career start, Romeo Doubs suffered what looked to be a pretty bad ankle injury, and Drake London failed to break 25 receiving yards. Cade Otton was the one bright spot among the less heralded rookies in week 9, scoring a game-winning TD as he finished as the PPR TE4 for the week. There’s another round of notable byes this week (Bengals, Jets, Ravens, and Patriots), so you could again be looking for some replacements to fill in, and there are probably some rookies among the guys you’re considering. I’m here to help talk you through the outlooks for those rookies as always.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.
Let’s dive into week 10…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 10: @TB): Walker has been the starting running back in Seattle for 4 weeks now since the Rashaad Penny injury. He’s handled 19+ touches in all 4 games while scoring at least 1 TD in each game and averaging 22 PPR points per game. This is a tough matchup – Tampa Bay ranks 13th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and has allowed the 4th-fewest RB points per game – but Walker’s volume is locked in. He’s not a great option for DFS lineups this week, but Walker is a rock solid RB2 who we know has top-12 upside.
RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 10: @NYG): Pierce has topped 80 scrimmage yards in 5 of his last 6 games and handled 18+ touches in all 6. Negative game script hasn’t been a problem for him, so don’t worry about the Texans being a touchdown underdog this week. The Giants rank 24th in run defense DVOA, and Pierce should see his usual workload, a workload that has made him the PPR RB12 in points per game since week 3. He’s a safe RB2 this week.
WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 10: @Pit.): We haven’t seen Olave put up the kind of crazy 13+ target games we saw from him earlier this season lately, but he’s now reached double-digit PPR points in 7 straight games and faces a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed the most WR points per game in the league. Olave has a weekly WR3 floor, but he has legit WR1 upside this week in a plus matchup. Don’t overthink this one. Olave should be in your lineups.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 10: @Car.): As expected, Allgeier saw his playing time take a dip with Cordarrelle Patterson back in week 9. Allgeier played his lowest snap share since week 2 at 38%, but he still handled 11 touches and tallied more than a dozen PPR points against the Chargers. During CPatt’s absence, Allgeier was a safe weekly flex play, but he becomes more of a matchup-dependent one with Patterson back. The Falcons run enough that Patterson’s return doesn’t destroy his value. Luckily Allgeier gets a good matchup this week. The Panthers rank 23rd in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 3rd-most RB points per game. Allgeier had his best fantasy game of the year against these Panthers with a RB13 PPR finish in week 8, albeit with Cordarrelle sidelined. I don’t know that I’d count on another finish that high from Allgeier, but he’s a useful RB3 this week if you need help there.
WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. NO): The Steelers jettisoned Chase Claypool to the Bears during the bye week, thinning their passing target tree a bit. Claypool had drawn a 17% target share for the season, and now leaves those targets to be divvied up between Pickens, Diontae Johnson, and Pat Freiermuth. The Saints haven’t been a very daunting pass defense this season since trading away CJ Gardner-Johnson and losing Marshon Lattimore to injury. They’ve allowed the 6th-most points per game to wide receivers lined up on the perimeter, and their two starting corners with Lattimore out rank 84th and 109th in PFF coverage grade out of 113 qualified cornerbacks. There’s a chance Lattimore could return here, but it’s safe to assume he’d have some rust and he’d spend most of his day covering Diontae Johnson. That should give Pickens a huge opportunity for a statement game here. The Steelers’ passing game as a whole remains underwhelming with Kenny Pickett at QB, but Pickens is a pretty good bet for 60+ yards with upside for more in a favorable matchup. He should have a higher weekly floor moving forward with Claypool gone.
TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 10: @Ten.): Dulcich is the PPR TE6 in points per game since he returned from IR in week 6. He’s been a top-12 finisher in all 3 weeks that he’s played, and he’s earned a 20% target share in each of the last two games. The Broncos get a matchup this week that they should be attacking through the air. The Titans rank 1st in run defense DVOA and 15th in pass defense DVOA. They also allow the 6th-most TE points per game. Dulcich should be a top-8 option at tight end this week.
TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 10: vs. Sea.): Otton has played 80% or more of the snaps in 4 games this season. He’s scored double-digit PPR points in 3 of them, and this week gets to face a defense that has allowed the most tight end points per game. A lot of those points allowed came in two blowup games by TJ Hockenson and Taysom Hill, but the Seahawks have allowed double-digit PPR points to an opposing tight end in 7 of their 9 games, and 8+ points to a tight end in all of them. Cam Brate may return this week, so keep an eye on reports on who will be starting at tight end for the Bucs in this one, but I think Otton has done enough to earn the job going forward, and he’s a top-10 option this week at the position if he’s going to be the starter.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. NO): Pickett is only on the borderline if we’re talking about superflex or 2 QB leagues. The Saints have been a middling defense against QBs, allowing the 16th-most QB points per game, but the place they’ve been hurt is by running QBs. They’ve allowed the 6th-most QB rushing yards per game, and all the QBs who have scored 17+ points against them have either thrown 3 TD passes or run for 30+ yards. Pickett has just 2 TD passes and 8 INTs for the year, so I wouldn’t count on him to throw for 3 scores, especially after the team traded away one of his weapons in Chase Claypool. Pickett did run for 37 yards in week 8 against Philly, but it was his first game with more than 20 rushing yards. If Pickett finishes in the top-20 QBs for the week, it’ll be a positive outcome for him.
RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 10: @Phi.): Since returning to the Commanders’ lineup in week 5, Robinson has been an uninspiring floor play RB3 for fantasy purposes. If you’re looking for something in the range of 15 carries for 50 yards, and maybe a target, B-Rob is a pretty good bet to do that each week. If you’re looking for more, you’re probably barking up the wrong tree. Philadelphia had been less than stellar against the run prior to last week, but with rookie defensive tackle Jordan Davis sidelined in week 10 they let Dameon Pierce run roughshod over them to the tune of 139 yards on 27 carries. Davis will be out again this week, but don’t fall into the trap of expecting a similar outing from Robinson. B-Rob hasn’t averaged more than 3.65 yards per carry in any game this season, and while he may have slightly better efficiency in this one, you’re still going to need a touchdown to get a truly useful fantasy day out of Robinson. He’s gotten at least 1 carry inside the 10-yard line in just two of the five games he’s played so far.
RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 10: vs. Sea.): There’s been a lot of noise made about the end of Tampa’s comeback win over the Rams last weekend, and how Leonard Fournette was frustrated to be standing on the sideline with White in the game for a crucial late drive. Some beat writers have hinted at White’s role growing here, but don’t get carried away. White’s 11 touches last Sunday were a season-high, but his 35% snap share was right in line with where he’s been over the last 6 weeks. Fournette is still getting all the goal line carries, and against the Rams he played 100% of the 2-minute offense snaps and was in a route more than twice as often as White. The Seahawks are a very favorable running back matchup – they rank 10th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 9th-most RB points per game - but you’re still counting on White to do damage on 8-10 touches if you start him, and they’re not the highest value touches. White has averaged just 4.3 yards per touch on the season, and he’s found the end zone only once. View him as a very dicey RB3 option this week.
RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 10: vs. Jax.): Pacheco has officially been the starter in the Chiefs’ backfield for two games now, and in those games, he’s scored a total of 6.2 PPR points. This is still a 3-headed rotation, and Pacheco isn’t getting the goal line carries or catching passes. Jacksonville allows the 10th-most RB points per game, but Pacheco probably isn’t going to help you much unless he gets into the end zone.
WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 10: vs. Hou.): Wan’Dale has shown the ability to earn targets in his first few full games played, but the Giants would be wise to use a heavy dose of Saquon Barkley this week. The Texans rank dead last in run defense DVOA and have allowed over 150 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. Wan’Dale’s average target depth is just 4.8 yards downfield, so he needs volume or to score a TD to have a productive fantasy day, and I expect the Giants’ passing volume to be lower than usual. Robinson is a PPR WR4 this week, but you can probably find better options.
WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 10: @Car.): London hasn’t caught 5+ passes in a game since week 2, and he hasn’t caught for 50+ yards or scored a touchdown since week 3. The team’s low passing volume continues to be a drag on his production. The Falcons faced this same Panthers defense in an overtime shootout two weeks ago, and London finished that game with 4-31 on 5 targets. The Panthers have allowed the 9th-most points per game to wide receivers lined up out wide per Sports Info Solutions, but it's been nearly impossible to count on more than 5-6 targets for London per game. He’s a WR4 even in a strong matchup this week.
WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 10: @LV): Sam Ehlinger has started 2 games at QB for the Colts, and they haven’t been pretty for the Indianapolis offense. Pierce has averaged 2 catches for 44 yards in those two games, and this week things could get even messier with a first-time head coach and first-time play caller in charge. The Raiders’ defense is bad. They rank dead last in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 13th-most WR points per game, but I don’t see how you can trust Pierce in lineups this week unless you’re desperate.
WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 10: @Phi.): If Dotson is able to return in week 10, you’d be best served waiting a week before seriously considering him for lineups. I wouldn’t expect him to get a full workload in his first game back, we haven’t seen what kind of rapport he has with Taylor Heinicke, and he would be tangling with a great pair of corners in Darius Slay Jr. and James Bradberry. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Eagles have allowed the 6th-fewest PPR points per game to receivers lined up on the perimeter, where Dotson lines up 80% of the time.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Malik Willis, TEN (Wk. 10: vs. Den.): Willis’ rushing production did take a step forward in his second NFL start (he tallied 40 rushing yards), but he looked like he didn’t belong under center in an NFL offense. In two full games played, he’s thrown for 135 yards, and lost 38 yards on sacks. If he gets to start again this week, it will come against a defense that ranks 1st in the NFL in pass defense DVOA and allows the fewest QB points per game. I expect Tannehill to be back at QB this week but keep Willis away from your lineups if he gets the start again.
RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 10: vs. Min.): Cook’s role has increased in the last two weeks, seeing over 20% of the offensive snaps for just the 2nd and 3rd times this season, but that could go the other direction this Sunday with Nyheim Hines more up to speed in the offense. With his role so up in the air, Cook isn’t much of an option against a Minnesota defense that allows the 6th-fewest RB points per game.
RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): Blackshear was a pleasant surprise in week 9, finishing as the PPR RB11 for the week, but most of that production came in garbage time with Baker Mayfield under center. The Panthers have already announced they’re going back to PJ Walker this week, and Chuba Hubbard looks to be on track to return to action after getting in full practices this week. Blackshear has just 1 target from Walker on the season, and his limited role may all but vanish with Hubbard back. The matchup is favorable against a bad Atlanta defense, but there isn’t enough opportunity to trust in a repeat performance here.
RB Jerome Ford, CLE (Wk. 10: @Mia.): Ford should return from IR this week, but there just isn’t room in this backfield for him to carve out an initial role beyond special teams. I would expect Ford to be behind D’Ernest Johnson for the RB3 role in the offense. Running backs not named Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt have totaled just 41 offensive snaps for the season.
WR Samori Toure, GB (Wk. 10: vs. Dal.): Toure played an expanded role in Detroit last week after Romeo Doubs left with an ankle injury and Christian Watson left with a possible concussion, but the Packers leaned more into 12 personnel after those injuries, with tight end Josiah Deguara and Toure splitting that extra playing time. Watson is cleared from his concussion and should be back this week, meaning Toure is unlikely to match the 38% snap share he played last weekend. Toure is only in play if you’re desperate this week.
WR Rashid Shaheed, NO (Wk. 10: @Pit.): Shaheed made some splashy big plays in his first couple games of the season, but he played a season-low 5 offensive snaps in week 9. The Steelers do give up more WR points per game than any other team in the league, but they’ve allowed just 5 plays this season of 40+ yards, and Shaheed is going to need one of those big plays to be fantasy relevant on such limited playing time.
WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 10: @Mia.): Bell has yet to reach 6 PPR points in a game this season. Miami’s offense has been operating at a high level in recent weeks with Tua back at full strength, and Cleveland would be wise to attack them through the air if they need to score to keep pace. The Dolphins rank 31st in pass defense DVOA, but even in games where the Browns threw the ball 35+ times, Bell has been a non-factor. We’re still waiting around for Deshaun Watson to come back for Bell to have a chance at relevance.
WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 10: vs. Jax.): Moore’s snaps didn’t disappear in Kadarius Toney’s first game with the Chiefs – he was on the field for 26% of the offensive snaps on Sunday night – but I’d expect that number to go down as Toney gets up to speed in the offense. Moore isn’t exactly doing damage on the snaps that he is playing. He hasn’t caught a pass since week 6.
TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 10: vs. Den.): Okonkwo started off Sunday night’s game with a 48-yard reception on the first play from scrimmage, but he didn’t touch the ball again and was targeted just twice the rest of the night. He was still on the field for just 35% of the offensive snaps while fellow tight ends Geoff Swaim and Austin Hooper were both over 60%. Even if Tannehill comes back and they throw a bit more, Okonkwo remains no more than a TD dart throw.
TE Teagan Quitoriano, HOU (Wk. 10: @NYG): Quitoriano got the start and scored a touchdown last Thursday in his NFL debut, but it was his only target of the game as he played just 18 offensive snaps. The Giants are a middling TE defense (13th-most TE points allowed per game), but both Brevin Jordan and OJ Howard remain ahead of the rookie in the pecking order despite Quitoriano being credited with the “start” last week.
TEs Peyton Hendershot & Jake Ferguson, DAL (Wk. 10: @GB): In the 5 games where Dalton Schultz has played more than 10 snaps, Hendershot and Ferguson have combined for 7 catches, 35 yards, and 2 TDs. Green Bay has allowed the 3rd-fewest TE points per game. Bet on one of these backup tight ends finding the end zone at your own peril.
Rookies on Byes in Week 10: WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ, WR Tyquan Thornton, NE, TEs Isaiah Likely & Charlie Kolar, BAL
Rookies Who May as Well be on Byes: RB Ronnie Rivers, LAR, RB Snoop Conner, JAX, RB Keontay Ingram, ARI, RB Trestan Ebner, CHI, WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL, WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI, WR Khalil Shakir, BUF, TE Jelani Woods, IND, TE Trey McBride, ARI, TEs Cole Turner & Armani Rogers, WAS
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. NO): Najee Harris’ continued struggles may have finally forced Mike Tomlin’s hand in the Steelers’ backfield. Tomlin hinted this week that Warren could see more touches going forward, and some local Steelers beat writers have tossed out that idea as well. Warren has averaged nearly 2 yards more per touch than Najee so far this season. I don’t think he’d continue at that efficiency level with a bigger workload, but he’s undoubtedly shown more juice than Najee this season and deserves more opportunities. The Saints are a middling run defense, ranking 16th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 13th-fewest RB points per game. If you’re desperate for RB help, Tomlin is going to give Warren the chance to develop the hot hand this week, and if he does, he could provide a useful RB3 performance.
RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 10: @SF): Spiller isn’t a good option for this week against a great 49ers defense, but he’s suddenly an upside stash for deeper leagues after working his way into the RB2 role for the Chargers behind Austin Ekeler. Spiller handled 30% of the Chargers’ rushing attempts last week in a tight game with the Falcons. Sony Michel still worked as the backup in passing situations, but Spiller has the skills to earn more work there and he’s going to see a good number of opportunities in games with neutral or positive game scripts. Ekeler has played just 62.3% of the offensive snaps for the season, so Spiller could carve out a huge role if he becomes the full-time RB2. He’s free to pick up in most leagues and could wind up being a weekly RB3 option down the stretch.
WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 10: vs. Dal.): Watson left last week’s game with a possible concussion. He was apparently cleared to return to the game, but the team held him back as a precaution. He should be a full go this week against a Dallas defense that’s been known to be aggressive in the secondary. The Packers need Watson to step up this week with Romeo Doubs sidelined, and I like his chances to pull in at least one downfield target in this one. The floor here is zero points, but Watson costs just $2,600 in DraftKings showdown contests for this game, half of what Samori Toure does, and I like Watson much more than Toure in this one. Toure has played nearly 60% of his snaps in the slot, and the Cowboys are much more vulnerable to receivers on the outside than in the slot. According to Sports Info Solutions, Dallas allows the 13th-most points per game to receivers lined up outside, and the 23rd most to receivers lined up in the slot.
WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 10: vs. Den.): The Titans have opened the practice window for Burks to be able to return from IR, and Burks himself said he expects to be activated for week 10. You shouldn’t throw him into lineups this week, but if he’s a free agent he’s worth picking up in most leagues. The Titans are desperate for wide receiver help, and Burks could take over their WR1 role in the back half of the season. For week 10, Burks will likely be eased back in, and he faces a Denver defense that allows the fewest WR points per game and ranks 1st in pass defense DVOA. Only 1 receiver has scored 10+ points against the Broncos in the last 3 weeks.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you pick up another big win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re back after a one-week hiatus, and it was an eventful week for the rookies. 3 different rookie receivers topped 100 receiving yards in week 11. George Pickens topped 80, Christian Watson scored 2 more TDs, and Skyy Moore had his best game of the season. On the ground, Isiah Pacheco and James Cook each set season-highs for rushing yards and Kyren Williams saw his first meaningful action of the season. There were some duds in there as well, most notably Dameon Pierce and Garrett Wilson, but overall, it was a great week for the rookies.
Week 12 is an interesting one. It’s the only week from week 6 through week 14 where no NFL team is on a bye. That should change your approach a little bit this week. Guys who were viable starters when there were 4 teams on a bye might not make the cut with all 32 teams in action. Keep that in mind as you consider your lineup decisions for week 12.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.
Let’s dive into week 12…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 12: @Cle.): Leonard Fournette has been ruled out for Sunday’s game, and that means White should be in line for a monster week. The Bucs have been making a concerted effort to get their run game going in recent weeks (38 rushing attempts against the Seahawks ahead of their bye), and the Browns are the worst run defense in the NFL. They rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA and have coughed up the 2nd-most fantasy points per game to the position. White should operate as the workhorse back this week in that inviting matchup. His skill as a pass-catcher gives him high RB1 upside this week. He’s going be as chalky as it gets for DFS lineups (just $5,100 on DraftKings), and you should be finding a way to get him into your lineups if you have him.
RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 12: vs. LV): Walker struggled to run the ball against a stout Bucs defense in Germany ahead of the team’s bye last week, but he made up for it by pulling in 6 receptions for 55 yards. He’s now scored a dozen or more PPR points in 6 straight games and gets a juicy matchup with a bad Raiders’ defense this week. You weren’t going to sit Walker anyway, but you should feel confident firing him up against a Vegas team that allows the 4th-most RB points per game.
WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 12: @SF): Olave gets a tough matchup this week, and his overall target volume has taken a hit with Jarvis Landry back from injury, but the rookie has still topped 10 PPR points in 9 of 11 games this season, and the Saints are likely going to have to throw more this week as 9-point underdogs. As good as their overall defense has been, San Francisco has allowed the 13th-most wide receiver points per game. Olave should be a reasonable WR2 as usual this week.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 12: @Mia.): The Texans abysmal offense finally caught up with Pierce last week as he finished with just 17 scrimmage yards in easily his worst fantasy performance of the season. The Texans have decided to turn to Kyle Allen at QB this week and bench Davis Mills, but I wouldn’t expect the offense to look substantially different. They still want to run this offense through Dameon Pierce. Look for the rookie to handle at least 15 touches and see a few targets come his way. Kyle Allen has thrown to running backs at a high rate when he’s been a starter in the past, but he was throwing to very good receiving backs (Christian McCaffrey, Antonio Gibson, JD McKissic). The Dolphins have allowed the 12th-fewest RB points per game this year, but they’ve been far from impenetrable up front. They’ve allowed the opposing lead back to run for 5+ yards per carry in 4 of their last 6 games, and all 4 of those backs found the end zone as well. Pierce is a decent RB2 option this week, even with the question marks about their QB play.
RB Brian Robinson, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Atl.): Washington is a 4-point favorite this week, and Robinson has averaged 17 carries per game in Commander wins. He’s a non-factor in the passing game, but the Falcons rank 24th in run defense DVOA and have coughed up 6 rushing scores from inside their 5-yard line in the last 3 games. Robinson is a good bet for 60+ yards and a TD this week in a plus matchup. He’s a dicier option in PPR leagues than non-PPR, but he’s a very solid floor play RB3 this week.
WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 12: vs. Cin.): The Bengals have been a solid WR defense, allowing the 8th-fewest wide receiver points per game, but they’ve been more vulnerable since the injury of Chidobe Awuzie early in their week 8 game with the Browns. Two of the best 4 WR performances the Bengals have allowed have come since Awuzie’s injury, and Burks has been the focal point of the Titans’ passing game since returning from IR. The rookie has earned 14 targets in the last two weeks and posted a season-best 111 receiving yards against the Packers last week. The Titans actively look for Burks when he's on the field – he was targeted on 38% of his routes last week - and the Titans may have to throw more than usual to keep pace with the Bengals’ offense this week. Burks is in play as an upside WR3 for all formats in this one.
WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 12: vs. Chi.): The Jets have made the switch from Zach Wilson to Mike White at QB for this week, and it remains up in the air what that means for their pass catchers. In his playing time last season, White heavily targeted the running backs and Elijah Moore, but Garrett Wilson wasn’t on that team and Elijah Moore wasn’t in the doghouse. Wilson’s route participation rate has been near 100% in each of the last 3 games, and he’s the receiver most likely to benefit if White provides a boost to the passing game. The Bears have limited wide receivers this year, allowing the 9th-fewest wide receiver points per game, but most of that can be attributed to negative game script in the first two months of the season. The Bears weren’t scoring points, and weren’t stopping the run, so teams didn’t have to throw on them. Since Justin Fields started to take off and the Bears started scoring points, it’s been a different story. 4 of the 5 best WR fantasy performances against the Bears this season have come in their past 4 games. Chicago ranks just 30th in pass defense DVOA. I’m betting on the talent and expecting Wilson to have a bounce-back game where he pushes for a WR2 finish. Keep an eye on the Bears’ injury report here though. If Fields is out, the Jets may not need to throw as much, and you should downgrade Wilson a bit.
WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 12: @Was.): You’ve got to have some fortitude to start any pass catcher playing in an Arthur Smith offense, but this feels like a good spot to do it. Washington’s defense should have success slowing down the Falcons’ rushing attack and forcing them to throw more than they want to. The Commanders rank 2nd in run defense DVOA, but just 16th in pass defense DVOA, and they allow the 10th-most WR points per game. With Kyle Pitts out, Washington’s defense should pay some extra attention to London, but London should earn a huge target share. He could hit 8+ targets for the first time since week 2. I like London’s chances to post his best yardage day since September. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3 for me this week.
WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 12: @Ind.): There’s some risk with Pickens this week facing a Colts defense that allows the fewest WR points per game, but that number feels a bit misleading. The Colts rank just 18th in pass defense DVOA, and often the issue for opposing receivers is that the Colts often play from behind and opponents lean on the ground game. The Colts have trailed on the scoreboard on more than 50% of their defensive plays and been in the lead for just 31% of them. When teams have thrown to their receivers against them, they’ve had success. Davante Adams and Terry McLaurin each topped 100 yards against them in recent weeks, and Pickens has been at least on par with Diontae Johnson as the Steelers’ WR1 since the Chase Claypool trade. The Colts are favored by 2.5 points in this game, and the Steelers rank 6th in the NFL in pass rate when the game is close. Pickens should be a safe bet for 6+ targets, and that makes him an upside WR3/4 for me.
TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 12: @Car.): Dulcich hasn’t finished among the top-12 tight ends in either of the last two weeks, but I like his chances to get back there in Carolina this week. Dulcich continues to run a route on more than 80% of the Broncos’ dropbacks each week, and Denver will be without receiver Jerry Jeudy. The Panthers rank just 21st in pass defense DVOA, and 10 PPR points has pretty much meant a sure-fire top-12 TE finish. I like Dulcich’s chances to get there in what should be an ugly game.
TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 12: vs. LAC): McBride hasn’t had a memorable rookie season so far, totaling 8 catches for 45 yards on the season, but he has a great chance to tally more yards this week than he did through the first 11 weeks combined. The Cardinals will be without Rondale Moore, Zach Ertz, and possibly Greg Dortch while getting Kyler Murray back. The Chargers allow the 3rd-most TE receiving yards per game, and the Cardinals will need someone beyond DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown to step up. McBride has a great chance to be that guy. As I mentioned with Dulcich above, tight end has been a wasteland for fantasy production in recent weeks. If you’re looking for a fill-in, you could do worse than McBride this week. View it as a slight downgrade for him if Greg Dortch is able to play.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 12: vs. LAR): Pacheco has been on a tear in the last two weeks, piling up 189 yards on 31 carries against the Jaguars and Chargers, but that’s good enough to be just the PPR RB35 in points per game over that span. Pacheco doesn’t catch passes, and the Chiefs don’t give him the ball at the goal line, usually opting to throw instead when they get in close. The injury to CEH takes away a threat to those goal-line carries for Pacheco, but that doesn’t guarantee he’ll get any carries in close this week. The Rams’ defense has been much better against rushers than the Jaguars or Chargers. They’ve allowed the 8th-fewest RB points per game, and rank 5th in run defense DVOA. Pacheco is unlikely to finish as a top-30 RB this week without finding his way into the end zone for the first time since week 1. The Rams have given up just 5 running back rushing scores all year. If you think Pacheco adds to that number this week, start him. If you don’t, you should probably sit him.
RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 12: @Was.): Allgeier has been useful as a fill-in during bye weeks, but he’s carried the ball fewer than 10 times in back-to-back games with Cordarrelle Patterson back at full strength. The Commanders rank 2nd in run defense DVOA, and all 32 teams are in action this week, so Allgeier is unlikely to post a useful game Sunday for fantasy purposes on a limited workload. He’s a low ceiling RB4 this week.
WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 12: @Phi.): Watson has been on fire in the last two weeks with FIVE touchdowns against the Cowboys & Titans, but I’m not sure I’d go back to that well again this week. The Eagles boast a great secondary that has allowed the 10th-fewest WR points per game, and they’ve allowed a total of just 1 wide receiver touchdown in their last 5 games. They also don’t often get beat by the deep ball – Philly has allowed just 5 completions of 30+ yards for the season. Watson has still only hit 50 receiving yards once this season, and if the Eagles keep him out of the end zone, you’re probably not going to be happy with his output this week.
WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Atl.): Dotson has returned from injury to a different offense than the one he left. Taylor Heinicke only has eyes for Terry McLaurin in the passing game. Scary Terry has a 31.6% target share with Heinicke under center, and it’s going to take time for Dotson to carve out a role again. The matchup this week is great – Atlanta allows the 2nd-most WR points per game – but Dotson has been targeted just 3 times in his first two games back. His playing time increased in his 2nd game back, and should increase again this week, but I’d look at other options in season-long leagues. He does make for an interesting DFS option this week in the great matchup, with a price tag of just $4,000 on DraftKings.
TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 12: @Cle.): The return of Cam Brate did prove to be a problem for Cade Otton in week 10. Otton was in a route on right around 90% of the team dropbacks in weeks 8 & 9 without Brate, and that dropped all the way to 29% in week 10 with Brate back. He still managed to post a 3-35 line on 3 targets in that game, but that was against the worst tight end defense in the NFL. The Browns allow the 5th-fewest tight end points per game. Otton is not a top-15 option at the position this week.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 12: @Ind.): With all 32 teams in action this week, Pickett is just a mid-to-low end QB2 against the Colts. Indy has been just a middling QB defense, allowing the 18th-most points per game to the position, but Pickett has finished higher than the QB16 just once all year. He is coming off his two best fantasy games of the year, but it’ll likely take rushing production for Pickett to hit any kind of ceiling. The Colts have not allowed any QB this year to throw for 3 TDs or 300 yards in a game, and they’ve held 5 of the last 8 QBs they’ve faced below 200 passing yards. Pickett does have rushing upside – he’s averaged 30.5 rushing yards per game in his past 4 starts – but that upside is just enough to mean you could play him as a QB2 if you need to.
RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR (Wk. 12: vs. Den.): With Chuba Hubbard back on the field, Blackshear has played fewer than 20% of the offensive snaps in each of the past two weeks. That’s not enough work to rely on him when he faces a Denver defense that allows the 11th-fewest RB points per game.
RB Trestan Ebner, CHI (Wk. 12: @NYJ): Even with Khalil Herbert sidelined, Ebner was on the field for just 15 snaps and handled 6 offensive touches. David Montgomery is the workhorse here, and 6-8 touches against a Jets’ defense that ranks 8th in run defense DVOA isn’t going to cut it if you’re looking for a fill-in starter. Ebner has never averaged as much as 3.5 yards per carry in an NFL game.
RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 12: @Ind.): In case you missed the news on Saturday, Warren has been ruled out for Monday’s game with the Colts.
WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 12: vs. LAR): A plethora of injuries to Kansas City’s WR group earned Moore more playing time last week, and he posted his best performance of the season with 5 catches for 63 yards on a 46% route participation rate. It’s troubling that even with JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman sidelined, and Kadarius Toney out early with a hamstring injury, that Moore still played behind Justin Watson, who posted a 98% route participation rate. JuJu has cleared the concussion protocols and will return this week, so I’d view last week’s output and playing time as the ceiling for Moore in this one. The Rams have been awful against wide receivers this year, allowing the 4th-most points per game to the position, but Moore’s upside remains limited as he’s just not getting enough playing time. He’s a WR5 for me this week.
TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 12: vs. Cin.): Okonkwo has pulled in a 30+ yard catch in each of the last 3 games, but in each game, it’s been his only catch. The Titans just don’t throw enough to trust their TE2 to put up meaningful fantasy production. If you play him, you’re just hoping for another long catch, and hoping that it’s a touchdown this time.
TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 12: @Jax.): Likely saw just one target and played only 32% of the offensive snaps last Sunday with Mark Andrews back from injury. It’ll likely take another Andrews injury to make Isaiah Likely viable for fantasy lineups again.
TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Whether the guy under center is Matt Ryan or Sam Ehlinger, Jelani Woods remains no more than a TD dart throw. He hasn’t pulled in more than 2 catches in any game this season. The Steelers have allowed just two TE scores all year, and Woods is one of three tight ends who could score one for the Colts, so divide those slim chances of a TD by 3 for Woods.
TE Cole Turner, WAS (Wk. 12: @Atl.): Turner returned from injury last week but saw just one target come his way with Logan Thomas and John Bates both active. Atlanta allows the 10th-most TE points per game, but Turner won’t be the beneficiary this week.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Bryce Perkins, LAR (Wk. 12: @KC): Perkins isn’t technically a rookie, but his first NFL snaps came this year, and he’s in line to start this week with Matthew Stafford and John Wolford both injured. Wolford will be active, but Perkins will get the starting nod. He boasts serious rushing upside that could push him into the mid-QB2 range even if he isn’t effective as a passer. Perkins ran for nearly 1,700 yards and 20 TDs in his last 2 college seasons, and he had 5 designed rushing attempts in just 26 snaps last week spelling Wolford. If your QB2 has been derailed by the benchings of Zach Wilson, Davis Mills, and Baker Mayfield, you could do worse than Perkins as a replacement this week. The Chiefs have allowed 25+ rushing yards to 3 of the last 5 QBs they’ve faced and have allowed the 7th-most QB points per game.
RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk. 12: @KC): The Rams unexpectedly waived Darrell Henderson this week, leaving their backfield to Cam Akers and Kyren Williams. Akers will serve as the lead back on early downs, but Kyren should be the guy on passing downs. Kyren handled just 26% of the team rushing attempts last week, but he handled 100% of the 2-minute snaps and was in a route on 65% of the Rams’ passing dropbacks. The Rams need pass catchers with Cooper Kupp still sidelined and Allen Robinson at less than full strength, and the Chiefs allow the 2nd-most running back receptions and receiving yards per game. There’s a ton of risk here with LA starting Bryce Perkins at QB. The Rams haven’t thrown to their backs a lot this season, and Perkins is more likely to use his own legs as the check-down option than Matt Stafford would be. If you’re desperate for RB help in a PPR league, Williams could provide some unexpected upside this week, and will have more value when/if Matt Stafford returns. He’s worth a shot as a cheap DFS lineup option this week as well.
RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 12: @Ari.): Spiller’s stats haven’t been overwhelming in recent weeks, but his playing time is steadily increasing. He has now taken over most of the backup RB role behind Austin Ekeler in this offense, playing 16 snaps and handling 6 touches last weekend to Sony Michel’s 5 snaps and 1 touch. Arizona represents another opportunity for Spiller’s playing time to increase. The Cardinals rank just 23rd in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 13th-most RB points per game. The Cardinals have been watching their season slip away in recent weeks and have given up 30+ team points in 4 of their last 5 games. I like Spiller’s chances at 8-10 touches in a game where the Chargers should have a positive game script, and I wouldn’t rule out his first career TD. Spiller is a guy I like in limited slate DFS lineups this week.
RB Keaontay Ingram, ARI (Wk. 12: vs. LAC): The Cards will get Kyler Murray back this week, but they will be without Rondale Moore, Zach Ertz, and possibly Greg Dortch. Marquise Brown will be playing his first game in more than a month after a stint on IR, and Arizona is facing one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. It would make sense to lean on the ground game more than usual. Ingram is the clear RB2 behind Conner with Darrel Williams still on IR. Even if Arizona runs their normal offensive approach, Keaontay should see a handful of touches, but if they do lean more heavily on the ground game, 10+ touches isn’t out the question. The Chargers rank 30th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 3rd-most RB points per game. Ingram is more of a DFS play than a season-long one. He costs just $2,200 on DraftKings for showdown contests, and he could substantially outperform that price tag.
WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Pierce finally started seeing some targets come his way again last week, and he played more snaps and ran more routes than Parris Campbell for the first time all year. He didn’t exactly make the most of his opportunities, with just 3 catches for 28 yards on 8 targets, but he gets a much better matchup this week and he showed a great rapport with Matt Ryan earlier in the season. The Steelers have allowed the most WR points per game, so Pierce is in play as a WR4 option this week despite scoring just 9.1 total PPR points in the last 3 games. He costs just $3,500 on DraftKings this week.
WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 12: vs. TB): Bell isn’t an option for week 12, but Deshaun Watson is eligible to return next week, so Bell is worth a speculative add in deeper leagues in case Watson’s return sparks a late-season surge from the rookie. We’ve already seen signs of an increasing role, as Bell has been above a 50% route participation rate in each of the last 3 games, and he’s earned 5 targets in each of the last two. If this passing game does get a boost from Watson’s return, Bell is likely to be a viable fantasy option down the stretch.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you pick up another big win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.