Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We're officially past the halfway point of the fantasy regular season. Hopefully you're in good playoff position, but if you aren't, there is still a little time to turn it around. Week 8 won't be an easy one for many of you. There are 6 teams on a bye this week, including several prominent running backs and wide receivers whose absences will have to be survived to get a W. It's possible there might be a rookie who can help you get through, so let's jump right in and talk about the matchups for the rookies this week...
RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 8: vs. Phi.): You're not sitting him. Zeke has run for over 130 yards in each of the past 4 games and has had a bye week to rest up and get ready for this one. The Eagles have had a decent run defense on the year, but they rank a middling 13th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA statistic which measures efficiency, and they've allowed opposing running backs to put up 324 rushing yards in the past 2 games. He's definitely a high-end RB1 again this week, especially with Le'Veon, Gurley, Hyde, and the suddenly incredible Jay Ajayi on bye.
RB Devontae Booker, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. SD): It appeared that Booker had worked his way in to a full timeshare with CJ Anderson last week, but it doesn’t look like that will continue to be the case in week 8. That’s because CJ has suffered an ankle injury that may keep him out a several weeks, leaving all of the work to Booker. If he’s available in your league still, run to your waiver wire to claim him. It’s a ripe matchup for Devontae this week. The Chargers allow the 7th-most RB fantasy points per game, rank 18th in run defense DVOA, and rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to opposing RBs. With so many top backs out on byes this week, Booker has RB1 upside and should be started with confidence.
WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. vs. Det.): Suggesting that you start Fuller requires a bit of leap of faith given his lack of production over the past few weeks, but I'm willing to take that leap. The Lions have allowed a league-worst 117.3 QB rating to opposing passers, and have also allowed 18 TD passes, which is tied for the most in the league. The Lions have allowed 20+ fantasy points (all point totals from ESPN standard scoring) to 5 of the 7 QBs they've faced and 16 each to the other 2. To make matters worse, the Lions are likely going to be missing their top corner Darius Slay. They'll manage to even make Brock Osweiler look good. Fuller should have plenty of opportunity for his best day in weeks. He should be a WR3 this week with upside for more.
QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 8: vs. Phi.): The Eagles’ pass defense has been fairly stingy so far this year, but they’ve allowed 6 TD passes in their past 3 games. They’ve also allowed 13.3 QB points per game on the road. I know, that isn’t a big number, but it’s much bigger than the 6.7 they’ve allowed at home. Meanwhile, Prescott has been rock steady piloting this balanced offense, tallying at least 17 points in each of the past 5 games. With so many byes this week, Dak is right on borderline of QB1 and QB2 despite a tough paper matchup.
QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 8: @Dal.): Wentz has been struggling in his past 2 contests, but with 6 byes this week it’s hard to make a case that he’s not usable in 2-QB leagues. The Cowboys have allowed at least 11 QB points and at least 1 TD pass in all 6 games they’ve played this year. They also rank just 22nd in pass defense DVOA. Wentz should be a low-end QB2 with a fairly safe floor but limited upside.
RB Rob Kelley, WAS (Wk. 8: vs. Cin. in London): Kelley salvaged a light workload in week 7 with a short receiving TD, but he should see more volume this week with Matt Jones looking less and less likely to play in London. The matchup isn’t as daunting as the Bengals would have been in past seasons. They rank just 22nd in run defense DVOA and have allowed 78 RB fantasy points in the past 3 weeks to Dallas, New England and Cleveland (26.7 points per game). I would expect Chris Thompson to handle some of the carries as well if Jones is out, and he already handles all of the passing down work, so it won’t quite be a full workload for Kelley. As long as Jones is out, Kelley should still get enough volume to be a borderline RB2 this week.
RB Jordan Howard, CHI (Wk. 8: vs. Min.): Howard’s role is in doubt after an apparent benching last week in the second half of a close game against Green Bay (it was close at halftime). He was out-touched by Ka’Deem Carey 11-7 for the game, but I would expect things to swing back in his favor this week. Howard should lead the backfield in touches on Monday, and he’s playable despite a tough matchup with the Vikings. While Minnesota allows just 67 rushing yards per game to opposing backs, they also allow 53 RB receiving yards per game. Ka’Deem Carey has just 11 career receptions over 3 seasons. Jordan Howard has 14 so far this season. Howard should see the bulk of the receiving work, and thanks to that receiving volume he should be on the RB2/RB3 borderline in a thin week.
WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 8: vs. Sea.): Thomas has been the most productive Saints WR over the past 4 weeks, averaging 6.5 catches for 81 yards per week with 3 TDs in that span. The Seahawks ‘Legion of Boom’ has always been a defense to avoid with fantasy receivers, but they’ve shown some vulnerability of late and the Saints’ passing attack is always deadly at home. Seattle has allowed 28 WR points per game over the past 3 games and Brees has thrown for at least 376 yards in all 3 home games this year. The sledding won’t be easy for Thomas, as Seattle’s best corners play on the perimeter, but there is definitely a chance for success this week. Thomas is should be right on the WR3 borderline.
TE Hunter Henry, SD (Wk. 8: @Den.): I’d probably lean towards sitting Henry this week if he plays, but he certainly had success in this matchup 2 weeks ago (6-83-1). He did enter into the concussion protocol after the game last Sunday, but seems to be trending in the right direction to play in Denver. His playing time will continue to be cut into as Antonio Gates gets healthier, but you have to attack the Broncos with tight ends since their corners are so good. I’d expect the Broncos to make stopping Henry a bigger priority this time around, but he’s still likely a top-15 TE play for the week.
QB Kevin Hogan, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): At this point all signs are indicating that Josh McCown will be the man under center for the Browns this weekend, but I would avoid Hogan if he winds up getting the nod. The matchup is a good one, but Hogan was just 12-for-24 passing last week, tallying 100 yards. That equates to a pathetic 4.16 yards per attempt. I wouldn’t expect the Jets to allow him to beat them with his legs the way the Bengals did either. I wouldn’t be able to trust Hogan even in a 2-QB league this week. Luckily, it’s unlikely to matter with McCown due back.
RBs DeAndre Washington & Jalen Richard, OAK (Wk. 8: @TB): Washington has clearly established himself as the number 2 back ahead of Richard after being in a pretty even timeshare previously, but he still only saw 6 touches himself in week 7. Latavius Murray seems to be back in the lead back role after missing a game with injury. Murray dominated the rushing attempts and scored 2 TDs last weekend as Oakland played from comfortably ahead of Jacksonville. The Vegas odds project a closer game this week, so there may be some additional passing work for Washington in a plus matchup, but he'll be tough to trust coming off last week's workload. I'd steer clear.
RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI (Wk. 8: @Dal.): Keep an eye on Smallwood's workload this week. You can't play him this week since he's seen just 4 carries in each of the past 2 games and faces a tough matchup Sunday, but he might start to see a bigger share of the work thanks to some recent fumbling issues for Ryan Mathews. If there is an uptick in usage, Smallwood may be worth a stash going forward.
RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 8: vs. Jax.): If you need an explanation for why you shouldn't play Derrick Henry, you don't own him on any teams. There's no reason to consider him. If you need a bye fill-in in a deep league, and were considering picking up Henry, think better of it and leave him on the wire.
RB Don Jackson, GB (Wk. 8: @Atl.): It looks like this backfield will belong to Ty Montgomery until James Starks gets healthy enough to take over again. Jackson saw just 2 carries in his debut last Thursday, and left the game with an ankle injury. If the Packers need someone other than Montgomery to handle the between-the-tackles work, my money would be on Knile Davis to see the bulk of those carries, not Jackson.
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 8: vs. Jax.): Sharpe had his best performance since week one last Sunday, and he totaled just 4 catches and 59 yards. There's nothing to see here. Delanie Walker remains the only pass-catcher to own in Tennessee.
WR Ricardo Louis, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): Louis saw just 3 targets last week with Cody Kessler knocked out by a concussion. He saw 9 the previous week. The entire passing attack suffered with Kevin Hogan under center. It looks like it will be Josh McCown at QB this week, but the only pass catcher we know that’s a plus for is Gary Barnidge. Louis has deep speed, and the Jets have proven to be burnable on the deep ball several times this year, but it’ll be hard to count on Louis this week. His production and target share have been inconsistent, and he’s never caught a pass from McCown. With Terrelle Pryor getting healthier and a possible return for Corey Coleman this week, Louis will likely be pushed further down in the pecking order.
WR Chester Rogers, IND (Wk. 8: vs. KC): Rogers fell flat last week in a spot where it looked like he would get plenty of opportunity. With Phillip Dorsett and Dwayne Allen out, he tallied just 2 catches and 30 yards despite Andrew Luck throwing for 353 yards. Dorsett returns this week, and Donte Moncrief is expected back as well. That would drop Rogers to the WR4 role and render him useless for fantasy purposes.
WR Malcolm Mitchell, NE (Wk. 8: @Buf.): Mitchell isn’t quite stash-worthy yet, but it’s worth noting that he played almost as many snaps as Chris Hogan in week 7. He wasn’t targeted on any of them, but it’s only a matter of time before he sees more work. He’s a guy to keep an eye on over the next couple weeks.
RB Dwayne Washington, DET (Wk. 8: @Hou.): Washington looks set to return this week, and he will likely push Zach Zenner to the bench. This situation is still a bit of a mess with 4 backs (3 if Riddick sits again this week), but I buy into Washington’s talent as the early down back. Zenner and Forsett were thoroughly uninspiring last week with Washington and Riddick both sidelined, so I would expect Dwayne to have a role immediately. The Texans have allowed 8 RB rushing scores in 7 games and rank 26th in run defense DVOA. It would be hard to pull the trigger in season long leagues, but Washington should cost the minimum in DFS and could be a decent punt play in tournaments.
RB CJ Prosise, SEA (Wk. 8: @NO): CJ is a potential stash now that the other CJ has been sent packing. Spiller was released, and Prosise should assume the passing down role. There hasn’t been a ton of volume with Christine Michael hogging most of the RB touches, but Prosise did play 16 snaps last week. He only saw 3 touches, but the matchup this week is one that could have a lot more action for the former college WR. The Saints have allowed more RB fantasy points per game than any other team in the league. Obviously it would be hard to trust a guy in your lineup who’s had just 5 touches all year. Like I said, I view him more as a stash than a guy to play this week, but don’t be surprised if he has a decent game out of nowhere.
WR Corey Coleman, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): Coleman may finally return this week from a broken hand that has sidelined him for more than a month. His status is still up in the air, but he returns to a plum matchup if he’s able to go. There’s always risk when you play a guy coming off a long layoff (especially when the QB is coming off a layoff as well), but the Jets rank 31st in pass defense DVOA, allow the 4th-most WR fantasy points, and have allowed 9 passes of 40 or more yards (tied for most in the league). One deep ball would make Coleman worthwhile. He could be a usable WR3 if you are in a pinch. Just make sure he’s playing before pulling the trigger.
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ (Wk. 8: @Cle.): Anderson appears to have moved back ahead of Charone Peake and Jalin Marshall in the pecking order in New York. Peake had really started to gain traction with 10 targets in week 6, but that number plummeted to 2 in week 7. Anderson didn’t see many more, with 3 targets, but he made the most of his opportunities by catching all 3 for 41 yards and gaining 30 yards on a rushing attempt. I expect Anderson to be the third WR moving forward. While Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa will see the bulk of the passing targets, Anderson might be worth a desperation play in the deepest of deep leagues this week. The Browns allow the 5th-most WR points, and Enunwa’s target share has been slowly dipping over the past few weeks (11,7,7,5 and 4 targets over past 5 games). There’s a chance Anderson picks up some of that slack if the trend continues.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you survive the many byes that you may be dealing with this weekend and pull out a win. Keep a close eye on the injury reports to make sure everyone in your lineup is active on game day. Feel free to reach out via twitter if you have any specific questions or just want to yell at me about the things written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s been an interesting season through 10 weeks. The Zeke and Dak show rolled through another one of the better teams in the league last week. CJ Prosise, Rob Kelley, Wendell Smallwood, and Tyreek Hill all made good on increased opportunities, while one of the steadiest rookie performers took a step back (Michael Thomas). Above all else, the national TV games were actually exciting this week (if you don’t count the Thursday game). While it’s been a rough season for some of the highest drafted skill position rookies, one of them did get some good news this week as the Rams are finally making the move to Jared Goff at QB. Most feel that they waited too long to make the switch, but it’ll be fun to watch at any rate. Maybe Paxton Lynch will be next. Let’s jump in and see what we can expect from the rookies in week 11…
RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 11: vs. Bal.): The Ravens rank number one in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat which measures efficiency, and have allowed he fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. None of that matters to Zeke. While he likely won’t duplicate last week’s monster game and isn’t exactly a chalk play in DFS this week, no matchup is daunting enough at this point to push him to your bench in season-long leagues.
RB Rob Kelley, WAS (Wk. 11: vs. GB): The Packers’ run defense that was so stout early on this season suddenly has looked vulnerable in recent weeks. They still rank 5th in run defense DVOA, and are in the top-10 in limiting RB fantasy points, but they’ve given up a whopping 77 points to running backs in the past 3 games (all point totals are in ESPN standard scoring). It’s true that 23 of those points were given up in the passing game, where Kelley has little impact, but with the volume he’s seen lately Kelley should have no trouble being a usable RB2 this week.
WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 11: @Car.): I think a bounce-back is in order for Thomas after a rough outing against Denver. He had tallied 50+ yards and/or a TD in every single game prior to week 10, and squared off with the best WR defense in the league last week. The Panthers are in the bottom third of the league vs. wide receivers, and Thomas managed to put up 5-78-1 in the Saints’ first meeting with Carolina. I expect something in that neighborhood again this week and think Thomas is back in play as a solid WR3 Thursday night.
QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 11: vs. Bal.): Prescott finished as the QB10 against Pittsburgh last week, but the matchup is a little tougher this week. The Ravens rank 6th in pass defense DVOA, and allow the 7th fewest QB fantasy points per game. Dak has shown to have a usable floor, with 17 points or more in 8 straight games, but he’s probably more of a high-end QB2 this week rather than a locked-in QB1.
RB Jordan Howard, CHI (Wk. 11: @NYG): I’m not buying the injury talk around Howard. Coach Fox said he was hurt after he was limited to just 2 carries for 11 yards in the second half last week. Howard rolled to 89 yards in the first half and claimed he didn’t suffer an injury when he was first asked. He’s since changed his tune to the company line, but there’s something more going on here. He is practicing in full this week and should suit up. If he’s the lead back this week as he should be, he’ll be a mid-level RB2 in a bit of difficult matchup, but the bogus injury claim makes me question if he will have his usual role in this one. The uncertainty is enough for me to drop him down a few spots to a borderline RB2/RB3 play.
RB CJ Prosise, SEA (Wk. 11: vs. Phi.): Prosise is a much better option for PPR leagues than standard this week. Thomas Rawls seems all but certain after the release of Christine Michael, and he likely will take a bigger chunk of the workload than Michael did last week. Pete Carroll has already claimed that Rawls will ‘play considerably’ in week 11. With a decreased role and a tougher matchup this week, Prosise will be hard-pressed to duplicate Sunday night’s results. The Eagles allow the 5th-fewest RB points per game. It isn’t all bleak for CJ. The Seahawks offense has been pass-heavy of late, and Prosise is still the best receiving back on the team. Also, the Eagles rank just 24th in pass defense DVOA on throws to RBs. He should be good to go as a PPR flex, but I’d be cautious about using him in that capacity in standard leagues.
RB Kenneth Dixon, BAL (Wk. 11: @Dal.): Dixon was productive on 11 touches last week, and his snap share has been steadily increasing. He’s the superior passing down back of he and Terrance West, and the Cowboys have been allowing 54 receiving yards per game to running backs. West has just 12 catches for 77 yards in 9 games this season. Dixon has caught a pass on 41.7% of the plays in which he’s run a receiving route. There won’t be a ton of rushing volume for the rookie, but he is very much in play as a flex option in PPR leagues.
WR Tyreek Hill, KC (Wk. 11: vs. TB): Hill saw 13(!) targets last week with Jeremy Maclin sidelined, and Maclin hasn’t practiced all week and appears likely to be out again with a groin injury. The Bucs do rank 7th in pass defense DVOA on short passes, which are Hill’s strength, but they also have allowed the 2nd-most WR fantasy points per game. With the volume Hill is likely to see, he should be a solid WR3 option in PPR leagues, and more of a borderline play in standard leagues. He did average just 8.9 yards per catch in week 10.
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (Wk. 11: vs. Chi.): Shepard still isn’t producing big yardage numbers, but his target share remains steady and he’s found the end zone in each of the last 2 games. The Bears allow the most WR fantasy points per game in the league, so Shepard is a good bet as a floor WR3 again this week, and he gets a slight boost if Victor Cruz sits again (though that seems unlikely).
QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 11: @Sea.): The Seahawks have definitely seemed more vulnerable against the pass this year, allowing 200+ yards passing in each of their past 6 games, but they’ve allowed multiple passing TDs just once. Wentz has thrown just 2 TDs and turned the ball over 6 times in the past 5 games, and has just 1 game with over 240 yards since their week 4 bye. The Seahawks struggles make them a matchup you don’t have to avoid with good quarterbacks, but not one you should target with mediocre ones. Leave Wentz on the pine.
QB Jared Goff, LA (Wk. 11: vs. Mia.): It’s worth keeping an eye on Goff’s start to see how he fares against a middle-of-the-pack QB defense. We’ve seen other rookies have success right out of the gate in recent years. With that said, there’s no good way to justify starting a guy who has spent the past 10 weeks not being good enough to unseat Case Keenum. He should only be considered in leagues where EVERY starting QB is in a lineup.
RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI (Wk. 11: @Sea.): Smallwood had a surprising productive game in week 10, but he still played fewer snaps than both Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles. He disappeared for weeks after his first productive game this year, with a total of 53 scrimmage yards in the 5 games between his 70-yard outbursts. I’d expect him to fade back to being irrelevant this week.
RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 11: @Ind.): Henry remains a high-value handcuff for DeMarco Murray who won’t have much standalone value unless something were to happen to the starter. He saw a decent amount of work against Green Bay, but a lot of it was in garbage time with the Titans comfortably ahead. That’s not something you can count on each week with a 5-5 team, and he still only put up 3 fantasy points against the Packers.
RB Paul Perkins, NYG (Wk. 11: vs. Chi.): Perkins still hasn’t moved ahead of Rashad Jennings on the depth chart, and the Bears’ run defense has been better than you’d think. They’ve allowed the 4th fewest RB fantasy points per game, and held 4 backfields to single-digit fantasy totals in their past 6 contests. Considering that Perkins will split that with Jennings, and will take the lesser part of the split, there isn’t a good reason to fire him up this week.
RBs DeAndre Washington & Jalen Richard, OAK (Wk. 11: vs. Hou.): The extreme elevation in Mexico City (it’s more than 2,000 feet higher above sea level than Denver) could cause the Raiders to give Latavius Murray some extra rest and even out the carries a bit between he and his backups, but there is no way to know if it will benefit Richard or Washington more. Playing either of them is playing with fire, and it isn’t something I’d recommend.
WR Corey Coleman, CLE (Wk. 11: vs. Pit.): Coleman is always liable to break out with a big game thanks to his big-play ability, but Kessler still hasn’t shown the arm to throw deep, and only 4 teams have allowed fewer 20+ yard pass plays than the Steelers have. This shapes up as more of a Terrelle Pryor week, as the Steelers rank 29th in pass defense DVOA on throws to WR1’s, and 11th on throws to WR2’s. There is upside, but I would probably steer clear if you have better options.
WR Tyler Boyd, CIN (Wk. 11: vs. Buf.): Boyd has topped 40 yards just twice all year, and only once in the past 7 games. The floor is really low, and there isn’t a ceiling to chase.
Rookies on Byes: RB Devontae Booker, DEN, WR Robby Anderson, NYJ, TE Hunter Henry, SD, TE Austin Hooper, ATL
QB Cody Kessler, CLE (Wk. 11: vs. Pit.): I know, this is an odd call given I just said to sit one of his best wide receivers, but Kessler might make a decent floor QB2 this week. The Steelers have allowed 250+ passing yards in 8 of their 9 games this season, and 14+ QB points in 7 of them. The Browns’ passing game has been a bit of a mess lately, but Kessler should be getting more comfortable as he gains experience and continues to get used to having his full complement of weapons. I like Kessler’s chances at approaching 250 yards and throwing at least one TD…Those are hardly exciting numbers, but there is a chance for more.
RB Dwayne Washington, DET (Wk. 11: vs. Jax.): Washington is the clear number 2 back behind Theo Riddick in Detroit, and the Jaguars have been struggling mightily against the run of late. They’ve allowed over 150 rushing yards in 2 of their past 3 games, and rank 28th in run defense DVOA for the year. If Washington sees 10 or more carries, he may creep into an RB3 day.
WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. 11: @Oak.): I know, Fuller isn’t exactly an unknown guy…but after putting up just 49 yards in the last 3 games he played and then sitting out 2 with injury, he’s probably off your radar a little. It doesn’t help that his QB Brock Osweiler is a complete bum. Fuller should return this week, and there are some things to like about this matchup. Although the Raiders haven’t allowed a top-20 receiver since week 5, they’ve allowed a league-high 11 pass plays of 40 or more yards in 9 games. Fuller is certainly the most likely Texan to come up with one of those. He’s a very risky boom-or-bust option. His floor is basically zero, but he could make a big impact with just one deep ball.
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 11: @Ind.): Sharpe is another guy who, like Fuller, isn’t some new name you haven’t heard. He’s been a disappointment for much of the year despite basically being the Titans’ WR1. The Tennessee offense has gotten on a roll lately, and Sharpe’s numbers have finally started to stabilize. He’s had 58 or more yards in 3 of the past 4 games, and scored his first career TD last weekend. Delanie Walker will likely be the focal point this Sunday, but Sharpe is still playing a starter’s snaps and facing a defense that ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA. He’s actually in play as a WR3 in deep leagues.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of your tougher lineup decisions this week. Keep an eye on the injury report with players like Jeremy Maclin, Jordan Howard, Will Fuller, and others who may affect your lineup. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything included above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We made it! Playoff season is finally here. Hopefully you've managed to secure a berth in the postseason and hopefully your team is headed in at full strength. If you are in, the rest of the weeks are do-or-die, so you want to make sure you play your best options. The rookie crop continued to make their presence felt last week, with a couple of new rookies coming up with their first fantasy points of the season. Cody Core caught a 50-yard pass against the Eagles, and Paul Turner filled in admirably for an injured Jordan Matthews on the other side of that game. Core's production likely won't be repeated in the next few weeks, but Turner may be able to make an impact if Matthews sits again. Let's talk about what to expect from Turner as well as the rest of the rookie crew in week 14...
RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 14: @NYG): There aren't really any good numbers to back up the call to start Zeke, at least with regard to his opponent. The Giants have a pretty solid run defense that held Elliott to 51 yards on 20 carries in week one, and Zeke may soon be hitting the rookie wall. Still, he leads the league in rushing by over 200 yards and has scored more than 10 fantasy points in every single game this year (All point totals are in ESPN standard scoring). He's a must-start as always.
RB Jordan Howard, CHI (Wk. 14: @Det.): The Lions have been pretty good at slowing down opposing running backs, allowing the 7th-fewest points per game to the position, but some of that is due to teams throwing on them because of their porous secondary. The Lions still rank just 25th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA stat which measures defensive efficiency. Teams just haven't tried to run on them enough. That shouldn't be a problem for Howard, who has seen at least 15 carries in 8 of the past 9 games. That volume should make him an easy RB2 this week with some upside for more.
WR Malcolm Mitchell, NE (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): With Gronk (and possibly Danny Amendola) done for the season, Mitchell's role is here to stay. The Ravens have allowed the 9th-most WR points per game thanks to allowing 18 TDs to them, and Mitchell has seen 18 targets in the two recent games the Pats played without Gronkowski. He's averaged nearly 10 yards per target in those games. Mitchell should have WR2 upside this week.
WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 14: @TB): Last week was a disappointing one for Thomas, but he has still put up at least 4 catches and 40 yards in every game this season. The Bucs have been playing improved defense over the past month, but they're far from a matchup to be afraid of. I'd expect the Saints' pass offense to get a little back on track this week and Thomas should be a WR3 with a safe floor and plenty of upside.
QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 14: @NYG): Dak has scored fewer than 17 points just twice all season: Last Thursday against the Vikings (10 points) and in week one against the Giants (also 10 points). The Giants have remained stingy versus QBs since, allowing the 3rd-fewest QB points per game, but Dak has certainly improved since week one. It's a tough matchup to be sure, so 12-15 points is a reasonable expectation, and if he is able to score any more than 15 he'd likely be a low-end QB1. He's worth consideration as a floor play if you don't like your other options.
RB Rob Kelley, WAS (Wk. 14: @Phi.): Kelley is a touchdown-dependent flex option this week. He's scored in single-digits in 3 of his past 4 games (the 3 he didn't score a TD in), but head coach Jay Gruden did say he'd like to get Kelley more involved. Unless that involves more opportunities in the passing game or Washington playing from ahead instead of behind, I don't know how much more volume there is for him to gain. The Eagles rank 9th in run defense DVOA, but they have allowed a rushing score in 3 straight games. If Kelley manages to find paydirt, he'll return RB2 value. If he doesn't, he'll be closer to a low-end RB3.
RB Devontae Booker, DEN (Wk. 14: @Ten.): Booker has been a let down lately as a starter scoring in the single digits in 4 straight games. The Titans have been decent against the run, allowing under 65 RB rush yards in 6 of the past 8, and Booker hasn't really been supplementing his fantasy days with receiving production. He also may lose a little work to Justin Forsett, who was just signed this week. Forsett had the most success of his career with Gary Kubiak as his offensive coordinator, and he knows the offense. I think Booker has at least one more week of seeing the starter's workload, and that volume should keep him flex-worthy.
RB Kenneth Dixon, BAL (Wk. 14: @NE): Terrance West stepped back into the 1A role in this backfield in week 13, but Dixon still managed to put up 77 scrimmage yards. The Patriots have limited opposing RBs to the 6th-fewest fantasy points per game, but Dixon could have an opportunity to make an impact in the passing game. New England has allowed the 4th-most RB receptions and the 5th-most RB receiving yards. Dixon lacks TD upside, but he's a decent PPR flex option this week.
WR Tyler Boyd, CIN (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Boyd has averaged 5 catches for 60 yards and has scored one TD in 3 games without AJ Green, and this week he gets to face the hapless Browns. 60 yards is likely Boyd's floor in this one, and there is a decent amount of upside for a score. He's a WR3 option in PPR leagues, but a dicier play in standard leagues.
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (Wk. 14: vs. Dal.): Shepard's low yardage totals have been concerning, but he's found the end zone in 4 of the past 5 games, and his quarterback publicly apologized to him for the lack of targets he got in the other game. The target floor should be safe again, and the Cowboys rank 27th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed over 190 receiving yards to the opposing receivers in 4 straight games. He still needs a TD to hit his ceiling, but won't kill you in PPR if he only hits his floor.
WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. 14: @Ind.): Fuller remains a boom-or-bust option as he squares off against the struggling Colts' secondary this weekend. He's shown life with 119 yards in the past 2 games, and the Colts have allowed 10 WR scores in the past 5. Brock Osweiler's poor play will always be a drag on Fuller's outlook, but he's worth considering if you're a big underdog this week. His wheels always make him a threat for a long TD.
TE Hunter Henry, SD (Wk. 14: @Car.): Henry is pretty much just a touchdown dart throw if you use him as a streamer at this point. Antonio Gates has seen the bulk of the targets to Chargers' TEs, and Henry saw just one last Sunday. There is some reason for optimism with Henry since the Panthers allow the most points to TEs in the league, but hopefully you have better options with your season at stake.
QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. Was.): You can make a case to play Wentz in 2 quarterback leagues if you're desperate. Washington has allowed 18+ QB points in 5 straight games after only allowing that amount once in the first 7. Wentz went in the tank for a handful of weeks earlier this season, but he has started to rebound with an average of 14 points per game in his past 3. He's still hard to trust with your season on the line, but he has come back from the depths of the unusable.
QB Jared Goff, LA (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): The Falcons allow the most QB points per game in the league, and just recently lost their top corner Desmond Trufant for the season, and I still can't recommend that you start Goff. The Rams' passing offense has been abysmal all year, and half of the touchdown passes that the Falcons have allowed were in the first 4 weeks of the season. Goff has played just one decent half and scored 28 fantasy points through 3 starts. If he is able to crack double-digits it will be a successful day.
QB Cody Kessler, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Cin.): It looks like it will actually be Robert Griffin III under center this week, and it's probably the right call for the Brownies. Kessler just doesn't have the arm strength to be viewed as Cleveland's QB of the future, so they may as well use these final weeks to see what Griffin still has left.
RB Paul Perkins, NYG (Wk. 14: vs. Dal.): The Cowboys allow the fewest rushing attempts in the league, and the looming return of Shane Vereen would cut into his pass-catching chances. Even if Vereen isn't back yet, Perkins would still be a long shot for 10 touches.
RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. Was.): There is some sleeper appeal for Smallwood. Washington allows the 4th-most RB points per game and ranks 30th in run defense DVOA, but Ryan Mathews is set to return to practice on Wednesday. Wendell put up just 56 yards on 17 carries in 2 games with Mathews out, so to expect much improvement with Mathews back would be a mistake.
WR Tyreek Hill, KC (Wk. 14: vs. Oak.): Jeremy Maclin is expected to practice in full this week, which means Hill won't be funneled targets the way he has been. He's averaging just 9.6 yards per catch on the season, so he needs either volume or a touchdown to be useful. The volume will certainly drop this week. He's a TD dart throw against the Raiders.
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 14: vs. Den.): The Broncos allow the fewest points in the league to opposing WRs, and Sharpe's two double-digit fantasy outputs came against teams allowing the 4th-most (Green Bay) and 14th-most (Indy) points to the position. The increased volume Sharpe has seen lately has been promising, but he's a wide receiver to avoid this week.
QB Paxton Lynch, DEN (Wk. 14: @Ten.): Lynch has struggled in his opportunities to start, but he should actually be a decent QB2 streamer this week if Siemian remains sidelined. The Titans' defense has allowed 18+ fantasy points to QBs in 7 straight games and allowed multiple TD passes in each as well. Despite his struggles, I like Lynch's chances of taking advantage of a plus matchup if he gets the opportunity. The Titans did get shredded by Matt Barkley the week before their bye.
RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 14: vs. Den.): This is a great opportunity for the Titans to play some smashmouth football and run it a ton. The Broncos are the stingiest pass defense in the league in terms of yards, TDs, passer rating, and pass defense DVOA, but they rank just 26th in run defense DVOA. If the Titans are smart, they'll use a pretty healthy mix of both DeMarco Murray and Henry. The Heisman winner is mostly only in play for DFS tournaments as a punt play, but don't be surprised if he has a bigger day than expected, and you should absolutely own him if you own Murray.
RB Jalen Richard, OAK (Wk. 14: @KC): Richard remains a handcuff for Latavius Murray, and he has weekly touchdown upside with DeAndre Washington vanquished to the land of healthy scratch each gameday. The Chiefs are one of 5 teams that have allowed 4 or more receiving TDs to running backs, and Murray has zero TD catches on the year.
WR Corey Coleman, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Cin.): Coleman will be a volatile option with RG3 under center this week. Griffin did show the ability to throw deep during the preseason, but didn't make it far enough into the regular season to be able to showcase that again. Coleman has averaged nearly 9 targets per game since returning from a broken hand, but who knows how many he'll see with RG3 inserted. Like Will Fuller, Coleman is an interesting option if you are a big underdog this week because his talent gives him really nice upside.
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ (Wk. 14: @SF): Robby has been the most targeted Jets' WR with Bryce Petty at quarterback, and Petty was just announced as the starter for the remainder of the season. Anderson faces off with the 49ers this week, and San Francisco is allowing the 2nd-most points per game to opposing WRs. Efficiency hasn't been a strong suit for Anderson, with just 4 catches on 12 targets last week, but he did score his first TD and should be a decent WR3 streamer in deep leagues.
WR Paul Turner, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. Was.): Turner is only in play if Jordan Matthews sits again. Washington ranks 20th in pass defense DVOA, and Turner hauled in 6 catches for 80 yards on 8 targets last week with Matthews out. He's only in play for really deep leagues even if J-Matt does sit.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your tougher lineup decisions and helps you advance to the next round. Be vigilant about checking the injury report througout the week to make sure your players are all going to suit up, and that the guys ahead of them on the depth chart don't suit up by surprise. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any specific questions or just want to yell at me about anything written above. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Is it just me, or did the first month of the season fly by? It was a month full of frustrating injuries, frustratingly low passing volume, and frustrating tight end performances, but there was plenty of good in there too. Several rookies have wasted no time in showing they belong in the NFL, while others are still biding their time and waiting for an opportunity. I think we’ll see a few more of them start to emerge over the next quarter of the season.
Hopefully at this point you find your team sitting in a good place and are not considering doing anything too drastic to change your fortunes. The best course of action for a struggling team is usually to make minor tweaks rather than blow the whole thing up, but you certainly shouldn’t be complacent if you’re sitting at 0-4. We enter the first bye week this weekend, you may be looking at using some players you typically wouldn’t, and I’m guessing for a lot of you, some of those players are rookies. I’m here as always to help you sift through which rookies can propel you to victory.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Let’s get into week 5…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. Cle.): Daniels is the QB1 for the season by total points. He’s finished as the QB5 or better in 3 out of 4 weeks, and the Commanders’ offense has only had two drives in the last 3 weeks that didn’t end in points. Everything is clicking for Daniels and Washington, and while this could be the toughest secondary he’s faced yet this season, you can’t sit him. There is a little bit of risk of a down game against a Cleveland defense that allows the 7th-fewest QB points per game, but I have a feeling Daniels will do enough with his legs to offset any drop off in passing production. The Browns play man-to-man coverage at the 3rd-highest rate in the league this year, and man-to-man defense can leave open huge rushing lanes if the DBs turn their back to the QB. Cleveland will likely look to use a spy to keep Daniels contained, but I expect at least a couple opportunities to break a long run. Jayden has to be treated as a clear top-10 QB option this week.
WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 5: @ Sea.): Nabers left last week’s game with a concussion, but not before he had tallied 12 catches for 115 yards. There’s a little concern here since Nabers hasn’t cleared the concussion protocol yet, but as long as he gets cleared in time to play, there shouldn’t be any drop-off in his performance level. Nabers has logged 3 straight top-6 PPR finishes and has seen massive target shares in all 3 games (at least a 38% share and 12+ targets in each). The Seahawks are a tough matchup – they rank 9th in FTN’s pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 8th-fewest WR points per game, but that shouldn’t deter you from starting him. Expecting a 4th straight top-6 finish may be too lofty, but he’s a locked & loaded WR1 if he’s able to get cleared in time.
WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 5: @ SF): Harrison’s fantasy production hasn’t been quite as scintillating as fellow rookie standout Malik Nabers, but after a disaster debut, he’s now logged 3 straight games with 15+ PPR points and at least a 25% target share. The 49ers are a formidable defense, ranking 5th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve allowed 3 different receivers to top 80 yards against them in 4 games. Harrison should have a good chance to be #4. He’s a quality WR2 option this week.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX (Wk. 5: vs. Ind.): Thomas has been about as consistent as a rookie can be through 4 weeks. His route participation rate has been between 77% and 83% in all 4 weeks, his target share has been 20% or higher in 3 of them, and his air yardage share has been 19% or higher in all 4. While that consistency has been there since week 1, he’s really emerged as a go-to receiver in this offense over the last two weeks, earning 9 targets in each of the last 2 games. His usage and production have made him a weekly fantasy WR3, but his recent uptick in targets and a plus matchup this week give him even more upside in week 5. The Colts have allowed the 10th-most WR points per game and have allowed a 100-yard receiver in 3 of their 4 games this season. In the only game where they avoided allowing a 100-yard receiving performance, Malik Willis was the opposing starting QB. Thomas should be treated as a WR2 this week and is the likeliest Jaguar pass catcher to top the century mark.
WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 5: vs. NO): Worthy displayed the feast or famine nature of starting him in fantasy football yet again last week. He’s yet to top 4 targets in any game this year, but he’s also posted a top-10 and a top-20 finish in the weeks where he and Patrick Mahomes have managed to connect on a deep ball (he caught a 54-yard TD in week 4). The problem is that he’s finished outside the top-65 WRs in the weeks where they haven’t connected deep. The upside is still enticing, and while this isn’t a great defensive matchup to attack with Worthy (New Orleans ranks 2nd in pass defense DVOA on deep throws), I have a feeling we’re going to see Worthy’s floor get elevated with Rashee Rice on IR. The conventional wisdom is that Travis Kelce is going to pick up a lot of that additional work in the short & intermediate part of the field, but I think Worthy benefits as well. He’s still mostly a boom-or-bust player with a low floor, but I think the ceiling makes him a viable WR3 this week, even in a tougher matchup.
WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 5: vs. GB): Whittington’s role in this Rams’ offense drastically changed from week 3 to week 4, and I think it’s worth us taking notice. I had a lot of hope for Whittington getting a chance in this offense when Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua went down, but in week 3 without Kupp, he played behind all of Demarcus Robinson, Tutu Atwell and Tyler Johnson and was limited to just a 34% route participation rate. Something we should’ve paid more attention to is the fact that he was targeted on 30% of his routes in that game. The ball found it’s way to him when he was on the field, and when his route rate jumped up to 97% in week 4, the target rate stayed high. Whittington was targeted 8 times last week and finished with a solid 6-62 line. I think the Rams have found something here, and I expect him to play close to a full-time role again this week against a Green Bay defense that has allowed the 7th-most WR points per game and ranks 20th in pass defense DVOA. The Rams are 3.5-point underdogs, so game script should keep them throwing enough for Whittington to find his way to a WR3 finish. He should be a very solid, but unspectacular fill-in option if you’re looking for help covering an injury or bye this week.
TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 5: @ Den.): Realistically, Bowers still belongs in ‘Rookies You Know You Should Start’ section, but you might take issue with me calling him an auto-start after posting TE15 and TE22 finishes in the last two weeks. You might not realize that he logged his highest route participation rate of the season last weekend (81%) with Michael Mayer out for personal reasons. The targets weren’t exactly there, but Mayer looks to be out again this week and any tight end running a route on 80%+ of a team’s dropbacks should be considered a slam dunk top-10 option for the week. The Broncos aren’t an imposing matchup here. They’ve allowed the 16th-most TE points per game on the year. You should continue to feel comfortable starting Bowers in all formats unless your format doesn’t require you to start a tight end.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Caleb Wiliams, CHI (Wk. 5: vs. Car.): Caleb Williams has the same outlook this week that he does most weeks…he’s a weekly QB2 that has some fringe QB1 appeal in really good matchups (especially during bye weeks for other QBs). His matchup this week is a pretty good one – the Panthers allow the 10th-most QB points per game and rank 23rd in pass defense DVOA, but that’s not quite enticing enough for Caleb to be a top-12 option in my opinion. The Bears are a 4-point favorite, so passing volume could be on the lower end, and I still don’t quite trust Shane Waldron yet. Every opponent the Panthers have faced this year has thrown for multiple TDs against them. If Caleb does that, he should push near a top-12 finish, but I’d view him as a mid-to-high end QB2 this week.
QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 5: vs. LV): Unlike Caleb Williams, Nix is a borderline option for 2-QB and superflex formats, not 1-QB leagues. Nix posted a performance in week 4 that few QBs have ever matched. He became just the 8th quarterback to ever throw for 60 or fewer passing yards on 25 or more attempts in a game, and the first QB to do it since Tim Hasselbeck in 2003. Nix is the only QB to ever do that and win the game. It was a level of inefficiency that we just don’t see in the NFL anymore. In fact, at halftime, Nix had 8 completions for negative-7 yards. Things can only get better this week against the Raiders, who rank 25th in pass defense DVOA, but the Broncos implied Vegas point total is under 20, and only 1 QB this season has found the end zone more than once against the Raiders. Nix’s rushing upside and favorable matchup mean you could plug him in as a QB2 if you had to, but I’d prefer to have a better option available.
RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 5: @ Atl.): Irving has been a hot waiver wire name now for a couple weeks thanks to a handful of impressive breakaway runs and some coach speak from Todd Bowles ahead of week 4 saying Irving has earned more work. The reality is that this backfield hasn’t shifted as drastically as you might think. Irving was out snapped by Rachaad White 44 to 30 in week 4. The gap between the duo has been narrowing, but White is still the RB1 in this backfield for now. The calls to for Irving to get more playing time were largely due to White’s abysmal rushing efficiency, but in week 4 White matched Irving with 10 carries for 49 yards on the ground. White has also averaged 8.3 yards per target while Irving has averaged just 4.3. Rachaad is going to have to continue to run well to stave off calls for him to lose more work to the rookie, but his receiving work is safe, and he’ll continue to handle about half of the rushing attempts for now as well. That means Irving is going to have to continue generating breakaway runs or find the end zone to be useful in your fantasy lineup, and the Falcons have allowed just 2 rushes of 20+ yards thus far. Atlanta allows the 10th-fewest RB points per game. It’s not a great matchup to attack with a running back that’s getting less than 50% of the workload. I’d view Irving as a fringe RB3 this week at best.
RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 5: @ Min.): Allen has now played 20+ snaps and received 9 or more opportunities in each of the last 3 games, but that usage level continues to make him a clear second fiddle to Breece Hall. He’s already shown us this season that he’s a flex-worthy option in good matchups, and he’s going to prove valuable at some crucial moment during bye weeks, but the matchup this week is rough. The Vikings rank 1st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 4th-fewest RB points per game. It’s just not the right spot to count on Allen making an impact in a part-time role.
RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 5: vs. NO): Steele may have fumbled away his opportunity to lead the Chiefs’ backfield during Isiah Pacheco’s absence last week. He fumbled his first carry of the game, played one more series, and then was barely seen the rest of the day as Kareem Hunt served as the lead back. Steele finished the game with just a 19% snap share and saw just one opportunity – a target he didn’t catch- after the first 2 drives. Andy Reid said after the game that “he’s got to hang on to the football,” but insisted that Steele is not a fumbler and that they still have confidence in him. I think they’ve at least lost enough confidence in him that he no longer has a stranglehold on the early down work, and that makes him tough to start against a Saints’ defense that ranks 8th in run defense DVOA. He’s got to re-earn that lead back role before you can plug him into lineups.
WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 5: @ Chi.): Legette took a big step forward in week 4 with Adam Thielen sidelined, logging an 88% route participation rate and tallying 6-66-1 on 10 targets, good for a WR13 finish for the week. It’s an extremely positive development for the rookie’s outlook for the next month or so while Thielen is out, but I’m going to be a little bit of a wet blanket here for at least week 5. Legette still ran fewer routes than both Diontae Johnson and Jonathan Mingo last weekend, and his breakout game came against a Cincy defense that has been struggling to contain wide receivers in the last 3 weeks – they’ve allowed 20+ PPR points to 4 different receivers in the last 3 games. The Bears, on the other hand, have allowed just one receiver all year to reach that mark (Nico Collins). Chicago ranks 4th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 6th-fewest WR points per game. I also think Legette is likely to draw the toughest CB assignment more often than Mingo or Diontae. The Bears have a clear #1 CB in Jaylon Johnson, who has been significantly better than CB2 Tyrique Stevenson and nickel Kyler Gordon. The Bears are predictable about where these corners line up. Mingo in the slot will draw mostly Gordon, and I expect Carolina to do what they can to keep WR1 Diontae Johnson away from Jaylon Johnson, meaning Legette is going to have to tangle with him often. It doesn’t mean Xavier can’t be useful this week. There’s certainly upside and he’s carved out a role, but I see him as more of a WR4 this week than WR3.
WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 5: @ Hou.): Coleman saw his route participation rate in week 4 climb back up to 73% after being all the way down at 31% the week prior, but that additional usage led to just 3 catches on 4 targets, with most of that production coming late in the game when the Bills were in a deep hole on the scoreboard. Houston has been a favorable matchup for fantasy WRs, allowing the 8th-most points per game to the position, but Coleman just hasn’t been involved enough in the last couple weeks when the games are still in doubt to trust him here. I’d keep him parked on the bench until we see him start to get more early usage in tight games.
WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 5: vs. Car.): We got one glorious week of the Bears running their passing game through Odunze in week 3, but in week 4 he was back to running wind sprints. He’s now posted a target share below 15% in 3 out of 4 games this season despite being a full-time player, and he’s finished as the PPR WR50 or worse in all 3 of those games. There are going to be spike weeks when the Bears have to throw the ball a lot, but I worry this week’s contest could look a bit more like last week’s. Caleb Williams dropped back 103 times in weeks 2 & 3 combined as the Bears played from behind against the Texans and Colts. He dropped back just 26 times against the Rams while playing from the lead with the run game finally working. The Bears are 4-point favorites this week against Carolina, so the passing volume could again be a problem for Odunze. A 15% target share and 30 or fewer pass attempts means an uphill climb to a fantasy relevant finish for Rome.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 5: @ NE): Wright played his highest snap share of the season in week 4. He was on the field for 46% of the offensive snaps and was in a route on 54% of the team’s passing dropbacks, turning that usage into 9 rushing attempts and 1 target. The problem is that this offense has been a mess without Tua under center, those opportunities didn’t lead to much production, and Raheem Mostert seems likely to return from injury this week. The Patriots are just a middling run defense, but the Dolphins have a paltry implied total of 17.25 for the week, and Wright will likely serve as the RB3 if Mostert is able to play.
RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 5: @ Hou.): Davis’ box score performances make it look like he’s had good involvement in the Bills offense, totaling 23 rush attempts in the last 3 games, but all 3 contests were blowouts, and Davis is getting the bulk of his work in garbage time. He’s only reached a 20% snap share once in 4 games, and this week’s contest with the Texans should be close enough that Davis doesn’t get much garbage time work. The Bills are favored by just one point. Davis is basically a TD dart throw with a low chance of hitting the mark.
RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 5: @ Sea.): Tracy has averaged 15 snaps and 4 opportunities per game, which just isn’t enough work behind Devin Singletary to be worthwhile in fantasy lineups.
RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 5: @ SF): Benson handled 30% of the Cardinals’ rushing attempts last week, but much of that work was at the tail end of a blowout loss to the Commanders. He’s still splitting backup work with Emari Demercado, spelling James Conner in early down situations while Demercado spells him on passing downs. This week figures to have more of the latter with the Cardinals a 7.5-point underdog to the 49ers.
RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 5: vs. GB): Corum hasn’t played a single offensive snap in 3 of the 4 games the Rams have played this season.
WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): Polk saw his best usage of the season in week 4, running a route on 87% of the team dropbacks and earning 7 targets (24% target share). He even made a highlight real catch on a sideline throw dropped between two 49er defenders. The usage was more promising than the 3-30 final stat line that Polk finished with, and I’d be more bullish on Polk going forward if I felt like we could count on that usage continuing, but I don’t think we can. The Patriots’ week-to-week usage of their pass catchers has been very inconsistent, especially when it comes to targets. Each of their top 3 receivers have had at least one week with a 60% route participation rate and 5% or lower target share. They’ve also each posted a week with a 24% or higher target share. It’s impossible to trust any New England wide receiver when the team is averaging less than 150 passing yards per game, and you have no clue which receiver is going to see the target volume from week-to-week.
WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. Cle.): McCaffrey was limited to a 47% route participation rate and just 1 target in week 4 as Noah Brown continued his ascent up the WR depth chart. Brown has seen his own route participation rate climb from 32% in week 2 to 58% in week 3 and 72% in week 4. He’s functioning as the clear WR2 behind Terry McLaurin, and McCaffrey is left splitting WR3 work with Olamide Zaccheaus. The Commanders are too run-heavy of an offense to take a chance on a player who is playing half of the WR3 role.
WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 5: @ Jax.): Mitchell has run just 11 routes and tallied zero catches in the two games since Josh Downs returned to the lineup. There’s a sliver of hope this week that he hits a splash play and winds up fantasy viable – the Colts have still tried to get him the ball deep, throwing 4 targets in his direction for 105 total air yards in the last 2 weeks, and the Jaguars rank dead last in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 2nd-most completions of 20+ yards in the league. If there isn’t a deep ball connection though, there’s a very real chance Adonai scores zero points yet again.
WRs Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 5: vs. LV): The Raiders rank just 25th in pass defense DVOA this year, so there’s an opportunity for success against them in the passing game, but Franklin and Vele aren’t involved enough to be relied on. Vele had a promising week 1 but has been sidelined with a rib injury since. Now that he’s missed 3 weeks and Lil’Jordan Humphrey has established himself in the slot, Vele will likely have to earn back those reps slowly upon his return. Franklin has seen a small bump in playing time in recent weeks, logging route participation rates of 30 and 35% in the last two games, and Bo Nix targeted him on more than 40% of his routes in each game, but that turned into just 4 catches for 9 yards on 9 targets. His role could increase in future weeks, but neither player here is likely to exceed a handful of PPR points even if they have a good week.
WR Roman Wilson, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Dal.): Is this the week Wilson is finally activated? It probably won’t matter in fantasy. He’s missed enough time that there will be an inevitable ramp up before he’s playing a meaningful number of snaps. Rumors that the Steelers might trade for a WR diminish his value even further.
WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): In two games with Tee Higgins back from injury, Burton has run just 5 routes total and earned zero targets.
TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 5: @ Sea.): Johnson continues to operate as the Giants lead tight end, but the volume just hasn’t been there. He’s averaged nearly a 70% route participation rate, but he’s only been targeted on 5% of the routes he’s run. We saw some promise in week one when he was targeted 4 times, but he’s earned just 4 total targets in the last 3 weeks as Malik Nabers has ascended.
TE AJ Barner, SEA (Wk. 5: vs. NYG): I mention Barner because he got into the end zone on Monday Night Football against Detroit and posted a top-10 finish for the week as a result. There’s not a good reason to chase the touchdown here. Barner has made the most of his opportunities – he’s caught all 5 of his targets this season for 40 yards and a score, but he’s averaged just a 25% route participation rate and is no higher than 7th in the offensive pecking order on this team. Starting TE Noah Fant has also made the most of his opportunities, pulling in 8 of 8 targets for 86 yards on the year, making it harder for Barner to make real headway.
TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 5: @ Chi.): Sanders posted his best fantasy day of the season last weekend. He only put up 2 catches for 16 yards, but it was still his best fantasy day of the season. Unfortunately, he also logged his lowest route participation rate of the season as well at just 21%. At this point, Sanders is merely the backup to Tommy Tremble. He hasn’t topped 2 targets in any game this year.
TE Tip Reiman, ARI (Wk. 5: @ SF): As I expected last week, it was Elijah Higgins, and not Reiman who served as the Cardinals TE1 with Trey McBride sidelined by a concussion. Reiman was in a route on just 14% of the team dropbacks and wasn’t targeted. McBride is fully expected to be back this week.
TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. Cle.): Sinnott has been on the field a little bit more in the last two weeks, reaching a 20% route participation rate in each game, but his next target this season will be his first. He’s still splitting backup TE work with John Bates.
Rookies on Byes in week 5: WR Ladd McConkey, LAC
IR Rookies (practice window not open yet): RB Jonathan Brooks, CAR, RB Audric Estime, DEN, WR Ricky Pearsall, SF
Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:
QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): Jerod Mayo keeps insisting that the Patriots aren’t all that close to making a change at QB, but beat writers have suggested there are rumblings from within the building that the change could be getting close. If Maye is still on the waiver wire in 2-QB redraft leagues, the best time to stash him would be now, before the change happens. If the Patriots fall to the Tyler Huntley-led Dolphins this week and drop to 1-4, it could be Jacoby Brissett’s final start. Maye provides much more upside as a passer than Jacoby, and some rushing upside to boot. The schedule after this week does include some daunting defensive matchups, but there are soft spots against the Jaguars, Rams and Colts that could be great opportunities to start Maye in fantasy.
WR Mason Tipton, NO (Wk. 5: @ KC): Tipton isn’t a player who should be put into lineups this week, but he’s worth mentioning for those of you in deep dynasty leagues because you may not realize the UDFA out of Yale has quietly emerged as the WR3 in New Orleans. It’s not a role that’s bringing a lot of target volume yet (just 4 targets in the last 2 weeks), but he’s logged route participation rates of 48% and 56% in the last 2 games. He’s worth stashing in the deepest dynasty leagues for the inevitable future hamstring injury that will hit Chris Olave or Rashid Shaheed. He doesn’t have the same upside as that pair, but there will be weeks where he sees more targets than he has so far.
TE Erick All, CIN (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): All continues to play second fiddle to Mike Gesicki on the Bengals’ depth chart – he’s logged less than a 40% route participation rate in every game he’s played in - but the ball comes his way when he’s on the field. All has quietly logged 3 straight top-20 PPR finishes and has been targeted on more than a third of his routes in that span. His limited playing time makes him more of a floor play than a ceiling one, but he’s already worth weekly starting consideration in 2-TE formats, and he could be a reasonable bye week fill in for deeper leagues as he faces a Baltimore defense that has allowed the 2nd-most TE points per game.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.