Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 2 was another wild one around the NFL. We saw two huge comebacks from the Jets and Dolphins, and a near comeback by the Falcons in another weekend that made us question everything we think we know about the NFL. One of the big early season takeaways in fantasy has been that the top wide receivers have outperformed the top running backs, and that has held true for the rookies as well. All 5 first-round rookie WRs have flashed the potential that made them day 1 picks, but among the rookie running backs only Breece Hall has logged a top-20 finish at the position. Have those receivers done enough to warrant a starting spot in your fantasy lineups? That’s what I’m here to dive into today, along with all the other fantasy relevant rookies.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.

Let’s get into week 3…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 3: @Sea.): I’ve seen enough from London through 2 weeks to move him into auto-start territory. He’s topped 70 yards in both games so far, and topped 80% route participation, a 20% target share, and a 30% air yard share in each. London is the #1 target in this passing game, not Kyle Pitts. Seattle ranks 26^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat, and they’ve allowed 3 different perimeter receivers to top 60 yards in the first 2 weeks. London should be #4, and he should be in your lineups unless you have nothing but studs ahead of him.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 3: @Chi.): Lovie Smith stayed true to his word when he talked about wanting to get Pierce more involved in week 2. Pierce played the role we thought he was ticketed for in week 1, handling 63% of the offensive snaps and 79% of the team rushing attempts. He also handled the team’s only rushing attempt inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. That role didn’t amount to a huge fantasy day against a solid Denver defense, but Pierce acquitted himself well and gets to face a much weaker opponent in week 3. The Bears have allowed the 11^th-most RB points per game and rank 24^th in run defense DVOA. The Texans are only 2.5-point underdogs, so they should keep game script neutral enough to keep running. Pierce is a good bet for 15+ touches in a plus matchup. He’s a borderline RB2 this week.

WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 3: vs. Cin.): Wilson posted the strongest rookie performance of the season to-date last Sunday, piling up 8-102-2 on 14 targets in a riveting comeback win against the Browns. It’s true that his day wouldn’t have been quite as impressive if Nick Chubb had just gone down at the 1-yard line at the 2-minute warning, but Wilson had already done enough to be the PPR WR16 for the week prior to that play. The biggest issue for Wilson moving forward is that he plays in a crowded passing attack. Both Elijah Moore and Corey Davis were on the field more than Wilson in the first two weeks, and Moore may be due for a get-right game. The Jets move their WRs around enough that no individual matchup should be too concerning, but the corner Wilson projects to face off with the most, Mike Hilton, has been the Bengals best cover corner through the first two weeks. The Bengals still rank just 24^th in pass defense DVOA as a unit and Wilson’s performance last weekend demonstrated that he can be fired up as an upside WR3 going forward. It wouldn’t be crazy if Wilson emerged as the Jets’ WR1 this season.

WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 3: @Car.): Olave’s final stat line from week 2 looked solid on its own, but the underlying usage that came with it hints at bigger things to come for the rookie. Olave ran more routes than Jarvis Landry for the 2^nd straight game, and he earned a 33% target share and a whopping 62% air yardage share. He also boasted a 56% target share on third downs. Jameis Winston is looking for Olave early and often, he’s looking for him deep, and he’s looking for him in clutch moments. There is plenty of competition for targets in this offense with Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Jarvis Landry around, but Olave is going to play a big role all year. The Panthers look like a daunting matchup, allowing the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game, but they’ve faced two lackluster passing attacks in the Jacoby Brissett-led Browns and the Daniel Jones-led Giants. I expect the Saints to have more success throwing the ball than either of those teams did, and I expect the Panthers to play more aggressively than they did in the first two weeks. The Panthers blitzed on just 16% of their defensive plays in the first two weeks, 6^th-lowest in the NFL, but they were at 33.7% last season (3^rd-highest). If they blitz more on Sunday, it should give Olave more one-on-one matchups that he can turn into big plays. He could have huge upside as your WR3 in this one.

WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 3: vs. LV): Burks still isn’t getting on the field as much as you’d like him to if you’re going to trust him in lineups, but his playing time made a big leap in week 2 and the Titans are going out of their way to get him the ball when he’s in the game. The total snaps look similar from week 1 to week 2, but Burks was on the field for just 36% of the Titans’ passing plays in week 1, and that number jumped to 66% in week two prior to the starters being pulled in garbage time. He’s also being targeted on a ridiculous 38% of his routes run. Many of those targets have been in space where Burks can run after the catch – 60% of his yards on the season have been after the catch – and the Raiders have allowed the 7^th-most yards after catch in the league and rank just 21^st in pass defense DVOA. There is a boom-or-bust element to Burks given his inconsistent usage so far, but this looks like a great spot for him to post 12+ PPR points.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

RB Breece Hall, NYJ (Wk. 3: vs. Cin.): Hall has continued to impress when he gets opportunities. He checked in as the PPR RB14 in week 2 on just 8 touches, but there are underlying reasons for concern about his usage. Hall was on the field for just 27% of the offensive snaps and saw his target number drop from 10 in week 1 down to 1 in week 2 as Ty Johnson got into the mix and made this a 3-man backfield. The Bengals have allowed the 11^th-fewest RB points per game, holding Najee Harris to 25 scrimmage yards and a TD on 12 touches week 1, then holding Zeke Elliott to 49 yards on 16 touches in week 2. Only Tony Pollard has really played well against them through two weeks, and nearly half of Pollard’s PPR production came through the air. If you trust Hall in your lineup this week, you’d have to be expecting a bounce-back in his playing time, or you’d have to be counting on him doing a lot of damage on just a few touches.  I’d view him as a low-end RB3 in this one.

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 3: @Sea.): Allgeier stepped into a sizable role in week 2 with Damien Williams on IR. He drew the same number of rushing attempts as C-Patt, but didn’t do a ton with them, finishing with just 30 yards on 10 carries. The matchup this week might look appealing with Seattle allowing the 4^th-most RB PPR points per game, but they rank 8^th in run defense DVOA and have given up more than half of those RB points through the air. Allgeier is not a factor in the passing game. Vegas has this game as a Pick’Em, so game script should be neutral enough that Atlanta can keep running, but without a passing down role you’re just hoping for a touchdown from Allgeier if you play him.

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 3: vs. Atl.): Walker made his NFL debut in week 2, but for the time being he appears to have a low value role in a bad offense. Walker split the early down work with Rashaad Penny, handling 4 carries and 3 targets on Sunday. Only one of those opportunities came on a 3^rd down. Travis Homer continues to see the most valuable snaps, playing 93% of the short down and distance snaps, 93% of the long down and distance snaps, and 100% of the 2-minute drill snaps so far this season. The Seahawks’ offense isn’t one where you want to be chasing part-time players, especially if they aren’t seeing the most valuable work. Through two weeks Seattle ranks dead last in plays run, 31^st in offensive yards, and 29^th in points scored. Steer clear of Walker, even in a seemingly good matchup against a bad Falcons’ defense.

RB Jordan Mason, SF (Wk. 3: @Den.): The 49ers made sure to get multiple RBs involved last week with Elijah Mitchell sidelined, as Jeff Wilson Jr. and Tyrion Davis-Price split the backfield work fairly evenly against the Seahawks. After the game it was announced that TDP suffered a high ankle sprain that will sideline him for multiple weeks. Mason should be the next man up, but it remains to be seen if he’ll see a similar split of the rushing work with Wilson, and the 49ers did promote Marlon Mack from the practice squad to the active roster. I’d be surprised if Mason logs zero offensive touches for a third straight game, but his role is very uncertain in a matchup with a Denver team that has allowed the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game. You can find better options.

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 3: @Ind.): With no garbage time work to be had in week 2 for Pacheco, his playing time dropped to just 5 snaps last Thursday. He carried twice for 6 yards. Kansas City is a touchdown favorite in this game, so there’s a chance at garbage time against a Colts team that looked lifeless against the Jaguars last weekend, but the Colts do rank 3^rd in run defense DVOA. This isn’t a game where garbage time work is likely to add up to a useful fantasy game.

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 3: vs. Phi.): Dotson has been fantastic for the first two weeks of the season, finishing as a top-20 WR each week, but I don’t like his chances to make it 3-for-3. The Eagles pose a much tougher matchup than either the Jaguars or Lions presented. Curtis Samuel will handle most of the slot work, which means Dotson will mostly work against Darius Slay and James Bradberry on the perimeter. Through two games the Eagles have allowed a total of 22.7 PPR points to receivers lined up on the perimeter per Sports Info Solutions. Curtis Samuel has led the Commanders in targets in each of the first two weeks, and the defensive matchup in this one should persuade the Commanders to repeat that in week 3. If you start Dotson, you’re praying for him to find the end zone again, and Philly has allowed just 2 wide receiver scores through 2 weeks.

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 3: @Cle.): I fell into the trap last weekend of believing that Pickens could be a beneficiary of the Patriots focusing on slowing Diontae Johnson, but the rookie finished with just 1 catch on 3 targets. Week 3 seems to set up the same way with the Browns possibly shadowing Johnson with their #1 CB Denzel Ward. Ward hasn’t been used as a shadow corner so far in 2022, but he was used in that capacity against Diontae last season. Pickens is a full-time player, running a route on more than 90% of the team dropbacks in each of the first 2 weeks, and the Browns have allowed the 7^th-most WR points per game. There is upside for a useful fantasy day here for Pickens, but it’s hard to count on him seeing meaningful targets right now. Pittsburgh is using him as a decoy to clear underneath space for the other receivers. Steelers’ beat writer Mark Kaboly noted that Pickens has run 62 routes with vertical releases out of 74 total routes run, and that for all but a handful of those he had single coverage with no safety help, and he’s still only seen 5 targets come his way.

WRs Romeo Doubs & Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 3: @TB): With Allen Lazard back in action in week 2, both Doubs and Watson became a lot harder to trust in fantasy. Lazard immediately came back to a 90% route participation rate in his return, and among the other WRs only Sammy Watkins registered even a 50% rate. No one other than Lazard has a safe weekly role right now. The Bucs have allowed the 8^th-fewest WR points per game so far and rank 10^th in pass defense DVOA, so this is a bad matchup to hope for one of the rookies to post a good performance despite their limited playing time. There was an update Thursday that all of Lazard, Watkins and Watson were held out of practice, but reports have made it sound like it was a coordinated day off for all 3, and shouldn’t be a concern for their availability Sunday.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Malik Willis, TEN (Wk. 3: vs. LV): I mention Willis here because he saw some live action in week 2 as the Titans were blown out in Buffalo. He looked as overmatched as a 3^rd-round rookie should in his first NFL action, completing just 1-of-4 passes for 6 yards and losing a fumble. Willis does offer a ton of rushing upside if he gets the opportunity to play, and you may be thinking the 0-2 Titans could make a switch if things continue to spiral, but you should pump the brakes here. The Titans are the reigning #1 seed in the AFC and they won’t be quick to throw in the towel. Tannehill is going to get several more weeks to right the ship before Willis will be given a chance, barring injury.

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 3: vs. GB): White isn’t getting enough opportunity behind Leonard Fournette right now to have standalone value in fantasy lineups. As the season progresses, he should get work in garbage time and should see pass-catching opportunities when the team is playing from behind, but with the Bucs favored by just 1 point this week, I don’t expect White to get many opportunities against Green Bay. Keep him sidelined this week.

RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 3: @Mia.): Cook got some additional run in week 2 compared to his usage in the opener, but much of it came in garbage time after the Bills had already vanquished the Titans. He rushed 11 times for 53 yards in the game, but 10 of those carries came on the last two drives of the game in the 4^th quarter. He’s still behind Devin Singletary and Zack Moss on the depth chart, and no team has allowed fewer RB fantasy points through two weeks than the Dolphins.

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 3: @Cle.): Warren remains a guy you should be holding onto as a handcuff to Najee Harris, but he has very little standalone value if Harris is playing. Warren handled just 4 carries and 1 target last week, and I wouldn’t expect much more than that this week.

RBs Zander Horvath & Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 3: vs. Jax.): Spiller has been inactive in each of the first two weeks of the season, so I’m not worried anyone will start him, but I want to make sure none of you are planning to get cute with Zander Horvath after he scored a TD in each of the first two games of the season. He played a total of 23 snaps in those games and has 4 touches to his name. You likely get less than 2 fantasy points if he doesn’t manage to find his way into the end zone again.

WR Kyle Philips, TEN (Wk. 3: vs. LV): Philips was a hot waiver wire name after he led the Titans in targets, catches and receiving yards in week 1, but he went from the penthouse to the outhouse in week 2. The rookie played just 23 offensive snaps on Monday night, earning just 1 target for a 5-yard catch. He seems to be clearly working as the WR4 behind Robert Woods, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Treylon Burks. It appears his two turnovers in the first two games may have put a dent in his playing time. I’d steer clear, even against a Vegas defense that has allowed the 3^rd-most PPR points to wide receivers lined up in the slot (per Sports Info Solutions).

WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 3: vs. Pit.): Bell saw an uptick in his usage in week 2, nearly doubling his route participation rate from 21% in week 1 to 39% on Sunday, but he was targeted just once. The simple fact here is that you can’t rely on any wide receivers in this offense other than Amari Cooper as long as Jacoby Brissett is under center. Bell could be an intriguing stash in PPR leagues later in the year as the end of Deshaun Watson’s suspension nears.

WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 3: vs. Dal.): Wan’Dale missed week 2 with injury, and it seems to be up in the air whether he’ll be able to return this week or not. He still wasn’t practicing as of Thursday. This WR group is in flux for week 3. Kadarius Toney is battling an injury alongside Robinson, and veteran Kenny Golladay is airing his frustrations with his role publicly. There could be a role for Robinson if he’s able to play, but not one you can trust in fantasy lineups. The Cowboys rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA.

WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 3: @Ind.): Moore was on the field for just 2 offensive snaps in week 2. He’s currently operating as the team’s WR5 and punt returner. You can hold in deeper leagues. His role is probably going to grow eventually, especially after OC Eric Bieniemy guaranteed that he would play more than 2 snaps moving forward, but you still can’t trust him in week 3 fantasy lineups.

WR Khalil Shakir, BUF (Wk. 3: @Mia.): Shakir found his way onto the field for 24 offensive snaps in week 2 with Gabe Davis sidelined, but he turned them into just 2 catch-less targets. Even if Davis sits again, the only hope for fantasy relevance here would be a splash play TD. Davis did get in a limited practice on Wednesday and said Thursday that he’s 100% sure he’s going to play.

WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 3: vs. Hou.): Jones may return from injury and make his NFL debut this week, but do you really want to consider playing the 4^th-best option in a passing game that’s averaged 14 pass attempts per game in the last 2 weeks? Believe it or not, they tried 6 FEWER passes in week 2 against the Packers than they did in the torrential downpour in week 1. Stay far away from the receiving options in this offense for now.

WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL (Wk. 3: @NYG): Tolbert has been a healthy scratch in each of the first two weeks, working behind such stalwart NFL receivers as Dennis Houston and Semi Fehoko, and his path to playing time may get a bit longer this week with the potential return of Michael Gallup. There isn’t a good reason to be holding onto Tolbert in redraft leagues at this point.

TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 3: vs. Dal.): Bellinger saw his first target of the season last week, and he turned it into his first career touchdown, but he remains an afterthought in this offense. The rookie was in a route on just 46% of the team’s passing dropbacks, and only saw the 1 target.

TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 3: vs. LAR): McBride was active for the first time in week 2, but he was on the field for just 1 snap while Zach Ertz was targeted 11 times. McBride is waiver fodder in redraft leagues.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 3: @Cle.): We’re getting close to the time when the Steelers may start to consider making a QB change. Their weapons are too good for this team to be averaging 255 offensive yards and less than 20 points per game, and George Pickens may have stirred up some trouble when he said after Sunday’s game that he feels like all the receivers are getting open. That seems to insinuate that the issue is the guy getting them the ball. Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record as head coach of the Steelers, and I don’t expect him to accept losing this year. If Trubisky’s poor play continues, the Steelers will give the rookie a shot sooner rather than later. In Superflex leagues you would be wise to pick him up before that switch happens rather than pay up in FAAB afterward. There’s no guarantee that Pickett will be better than Trubisky, but with these weapons he could be a low-end QB2 if he’s even a marginal upgrade over Mitch. He’d have upside for more if he’s a bigger upgrade than that.

WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 3: vs. KC): This is contingent on Michael Pittman being out again in week 3, but Pierce has some sneaky upside in a game where the Colts should be throwing plenty. With Pittman and Pierce both out in week 2, Parris Cambell led the team in routes run, but it was Ashton Dulin who was the most productive. Dulin posted 5-79 on 7 targets and seems like a guy who could carve out a role as the legit WR2 behind Pittman. Dulin’s strong game still left enough work for Dez Patmon to earn 6 targets and Mike Strachan to earn 3. Pierce was a full participant in practice to start the week and would play ahead of both Patmon and Strachan this week. The Chiefs have allowed the 9^th-most WR points per game so far, and Pierce costs just $200 in DraftKings Showdown contests this week.

TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 3: @NE): Devin Duvernay left last Sunday’s contest with a concussion, and if he doesn’t return in time for week 3 Likely should see an uptick in targets. The Patriots’ defense focuses on limiting the opponent’s best options, so their defensive attention should be on Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman. They seemed to struggle to contain Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle but compared to Baltimore in week 2 the Pats basically shut them down, and New England held Diontae Johnson to 6-57 in week 2. Likely has emerged as a great option to be that next target, especially if Duvernay sits. Isaiah went 4-43 on 5 targets in week 2 and could be in for a bigger role in this one. He’s a risky option for season long leagues, but he’s underpriced for showdown slate contests on DraftKings at just $1,800.

TE Jake Ferguson, DAL (Wk. 3: @NYG): Dalton Schultz is battling a PCL injury that could sideline him for week 3 and possibly longer, and Ferguson would be the next man up. The matchup isn’t ideal against a Giants’ defense that has allowed the 9^th-fewest TE points so far, but Ferguson costs the minimum in DFS contests on DraftKings and will likely have a low salary in showdown contests as well. Ferguson didn’t put up gaudy receiving yardage totals in college, but he played for a Wisconsin team that didn’t throw a ton. He put up more than a 20% receiving yardage share as a freshman. Ferguson doesn’t have a high ceiling, but he’s worth a stash in deeper season-long leagues and dynasty formats on the chance that Schultz’s injury lingers.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you continue your strong start to the season or get it back on track if the first couple weeks haven’t gone your way. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 3 was another wild one in the NFL that continued to see depressed offensive outputs. Scoring for the first 3 weeks is down more than 2 points per game per team from last season. Maybe it’s because of all the high-end offensive personnel movement last offseason, maybe it’s because of officials letting DBs get away with more physical play, but no matter the reason I think all of us are ready to never have to watch another 11-10 game in primetime again.

Many of the rookies continued strong starts to their seasons. Breece Hall, Chris Olave, Drake London, and Romeo Doubs were the stars of week 3, with Jahan Dotson and Garrett Wilson coming back down to earth a bit. Week 4 should be full of riveting matchups. Only 3 games this week opened with a point spread of more than 3.5 points. It should make for some tough lineup decisions in your fantasy leagues, but luckily, I’m here to help you sort through the rookies again!

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.

Let’s get into week 4…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 4: vs. Min.): Olave has earned 13 targets in each of the last 2 weeks, and both Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry are battling injuries that could keep them out or limit them in week 4. The Vikings rank just 20^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 14^th-most WR points per game. This isn’t a matchup to be afraid of, and Olave is quickly establishing himself as the best receiver in this offense. You shouldn’t be sitting him in what could be another big day for the youngster.

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 4: vs. Cle.): London took a back seat in target share to Kyle Pitts for the first time this season in week 3, and he still found the end zone and finished the week as a WR3. The Browns have allowed the 10^th-most WR points per game, and while they had some success slowing opposing WR1s in DJ Moore and Elijah Moore, they allowed 8-84 on 11 targets last week to Diontae Johnson. Don’t let Denzel Ward scare you off starting London this week. He should be a WR3 or better again.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Breece Hall, NYJ (Wk. 4: @Pit.): Hall out-snapped Michael Carter for the first time in week 3, and he saw double-digit targets for the second time this season. He’s been a double-digit PPR scorer in all 3 games so far, his playing time continues to grow each week, and this week he faces a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed the 6^th-most RB points per game. It all adds up to Hall being a slam dunk RB2 this week, but there is a least some risk to consider with Zach Wilson returning to play quarterback. Since the start of last season, we’ve seen running backs fare better as receivers with Mike White and Joe Flacco under center than with Zach Wilson, and more than 70% of Breece Hall’s PPR points this year have come from receiving production. I still like Hall here as a high-end RB3, but this is an important game to monitor to see if it’ll be the same old Zach Wilson we saw in 2021.

WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 4: @Pit.): There’s risk here for Wilson as the Jets adjust back to Zach Wilson under center for week 4. They may not throw the ball as much as they have in previous weeks (averaging an absurd 52 attempts per game so far) and have an implied total of just 18.5 points this week. I’m betting on the talent to win out for Wilson in a matchup that the numbers say is better than you might’ve guessed. Pittsburgh hasn’t given up a ton of real points, but they’ve allowed the 8^th-most fantasy points per game to wideouts including 5 different double-digit scoring outputs through 3 games. Wilson has shown he can command targets, and this is a matchup where targets should lead to fantasy points. He’s an upside WR3 with a little lower floor than usual this week.

WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 4: @Ind.): In weeks 1 and 2, Burks played limited snaps but was heavily targeted whenever he was on the field. His route participate rate was under 60% but he was targeted on at least 35% of his routes in each game. In week 3, that sort of reversed as his route participation jumped to 97% but his target rate dropped to just 9%. He was in a route on almost every pass play but was targeted just twice. I expect those numbers to meet somewhere in the middle in week 4. Most of Burks’ spike in playing time in week 3 came at the expense Austin Hooper and the injured Kyle Philips. Philips is practicing this week in a limited capacity and should be able to return to the lineup, but Burks has likely supplanted him as the WR3. Treylon probably loses some snaps to his fellow rookie this week, but he should still be on the field a lot, and I expect the Titans to once again make it a point to get him heavily involved. I’d set his floor at 5-6 targets against a Colts’ defense that ranks 27^th in pass defense DVOA. Burks is a volatile WR3 this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 4: vs. LAC): This week’s matchup for Pierce is something of a catch-22 for the rookie back. The Chargers have been shredded on the ground to the tune of 5.3 yards per carry through the first 3 weeks. They’ve given up the 5^th-most RB points per game. This is typically the kind of matchup you want to attack with a running back like Pierce who does most of his damage on the ground. The problem is that the Chargers boast an explosive offense that put the Texans in a very negative game script and render Pierce’s rushing ability moot. LA’s offense struggled against a better-than-expected Jaguars defense a week ago with Justin Herbert not at 100% due to a rib injury, but I don’t expect them to have the same issues getting going against the Texans. If you believe the Texans can hang with the Chargers on Sunday, Pierce could be a fine RB2. If they play from multiple scores behind all day like I expect, we’re going to see more Rex Burkhead than we want and Pierce becomes a dicey flex option.

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 4: @Det.): The Lions are typically a matchup to target with running backs, ranking 31^st in run defense DVOA and allowing the most RB points per game, but Walker’s role remains too small to trust in fantasy lineups. Walker handled just 13% of the team rushing attempts in week 3, and Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas still play the overwhelming majority of passing down snaps. Walker is a long shot to provide fantasy value this week unless game script heavily favors the Seahawks. Seattle is a 5-point underdog.

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 4: vs. Cle.): The Browns don’t represent a daunting matchup for Allgeier, ranking just 26^th in run defense DVOA, but Tyler is playing only about a third of offensive snaps and isn’t getting any receiving work. He has a chance to see his value increase later in the season if Cordarrelle Patterson gets hurt or wears down like he did last year, but for now you can’t count on more than 6-8 touches for Allgeier. That’s not enough work to trust him in your lineups.

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 4: vs. NYJ): You probably already know to sit Warren, but if you saw his touches on Thursday Night Football you might’ve been impressed enough to get some ideas about what he could do against a bad Jets’ defense. The Jets rank 26^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 7^th-most RB points per game, and this is one of the few games where Pittsburgh could have garbage time with a lead this season. That adds up to Warren being a sneaky play this week, especially in DFS, but his offensive snaps have decreased each week this season. He played a season-low 12 snaps last week, which just isn’t enough work to trust him in fantasy lineups.

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 4: @Dal.): The Washington passing attack that looked so dynamic in the first two weeks came crashing down to earth in week 3 against the Eagles. Carson Wentz still ended up with over 200 passing yards, but 83% of his yardage came on the last 3 drives of the game with Washington in a big hole. The biggest issue for the passing game was protecting Wentz from Philly’s pass rush. Philly generated pressure on 40% of Wentz’s dropbacks and sacked the QB 9 times (insert Ferris Bueller ‘Nine times’ reference here). This week the Commanders could face similar issues against a Dallas defense that is fresh off generating 5 sacks of Daniel Jones and a 45% pressure rate on Monday night. Dotson and teammate Terry McLaurin do their best work downfield. Both have an average target depth more than 13 yards downfield, and those kinds of longer throws won’t have time to develop if the Commanders can’t protect Wentz again. Look for a lot of dump offs to Curtis Samuel and JD McKissic once again. That duo accounted for 52% of the Commanders’ receptions last week. Wentz did try to get the ball to Dotson last Sunday, targeting him 8 times, but they were rarely able to connect as Dotson finished with 2 catches for 10 yards. I’d be hesitant to trust Dotson as anything more than a WR4 this week.

WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 4: vs. NE): It hasn’t taken long for Doubs to assert himself as the potential WR1 in the Packers’ offense. There were other receivers sidelined last week (Christian Watson & Sammy Watkins), opening opportunity for Doubs to be a nearly every down player, and he made the most of the opportunity. Doubs was in a route for 95% of Aaron Rodgers dropbacks, and he turned 8 targets into an 8-73-1 line. Watson and Watkins are both likely to return this week, so Doubs should see his playing time come back down to earth a bit, but he has consistently made an impact whenever he’s gotten the chance to do so. The Packers would be wise to keep giving him chances. The matchup this week isn’t a great one. The Patriots have allowed the 5^th-fewest WR points per game, and the 8^th-most running back receiving yards. They are more vulnerable to Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon through the air than the WR group. Doubs still has upside here, but I wouldn’t count on much more than 40-50 yards for the rookie.

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 4: vs. NYJ): Pickens made arguably the catch of the season last Thursday night against the Browns, but his overall fortunes remain the same as they did going into that game. He’s running a lot of routes that help create space underneath for his teammates, but Mitch Trubisky is struggling to get Pickens the ball, even when coverage dictates that he should. Trubisky did at least attempt more passes in George’s direction in week 3, but outside of the dazzling circus catch he made Pickens totaled 2 catches for 3 yards on 6 targets. The Jets are a favorable matchup here, allowing the 11^th-most WR points per game, but I just don’t trust Trubisky to connect with Pickens enough to amount to a worthwhile fantasy day. Perhaps you can cross your fingers and hope that Trubisky gets benched for Kenny Pickett mid-game. Fantasy football aside, the matchup between Pickens and opposing rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner should be a fun one to watch.

TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 4: vs. Chi.): You may not think of Bellinger as a borderline option, but he is the unquestioned starting tight end for the Giants and he finally started seeing targets come his way on Monday night, turning in a 4-40 line on 5 targets against the Cowboys. New York is running short on wide receivers after the season-ending injury to Sterling Shepard, so there may be upside for a healthy target share for Bellinger, but the Bears have only given up 5 points or more (half-PPR) to one tight end in the first 3 weeks. I’d steer clear of Bellinger unless you’re desperate.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Bailey Zappe, NE (Wk. 4: @GB): Mac Jones suffered a high ankle sprain that will put him on the shelf for a few weeks late in New England’s loss to the Ravens on Sunday, but Joe Judge essentially confirmed this week that it’ll be Axel Brian Hoyer who will take over in his absence (Yes, his real first name is Axel!). Zappe only needs an injury or some poor performance from Hoyer to see playing time, but he’s no more than a stash in deep 2-QB leagues for now.

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 4: vs. KC): White’s playing time and touches have decreased each week of the season so far. This is Lenny’s backfield for the foreseeable future. It’s possible White plays more in week 4 than he has in the last couple weeks, but I don’t want to count on that in fantasy lineups.

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 4: @TB): The Chiefs have played two competitive games in the first 3 weeks of the season, and Pacheco has totaled 10 offensive snaps and 5 touches in those two games. Kansas City should be in another tight game this week. They’re favored by less than a field goal, and the Bucs have allowed the fewest running back points per game in the league so far.

RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 4: @Bal.): Cook’s best opportunities to put up fantasy production are going to come in garbage time, and it’s hard to count on that this week in what should be one of the best games of the week. He’ll see some change-of-pace receiving work as well, but not enough to warrant fantasy consideration unless you’re desperate. Cook played just 11 snaps in week 3.

RB Jordan Mason, SF (Wk. 4: vs. LAR): Mason played just 5 snaps and carried just once on Sunday night despite having only Jeff Wilson Jr. ahead of him on the depth chart. Deebo Samuel is the RB2 right now in this offense. Mason may need an injury to Wilson to have any meaningful fantasy value in the coming weeks.

WR Kyle Philips, TEN (Wk. 4: @Ind.): Philips may return to action this week, and while it could throw a wrench into the Titans’ WR rotation against the Colts, it’ll be hard to trust him in Indy. The Colts have allowed the 3^rd-fewest PPR points to opposing wide receivers lined up in the slot and Philips spends nearly two-thirds of his snaps lined up there.

WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 4: vs. NE): Watson was a full participant in practice this week and should be good to return, but he didn’t seem to have much of a role in week 2 with Allen Lazard back on the field. Watson ran a route on just 27% of the passing dropbacks in that game before missing week 3 with a hamstring issue. Romeo Doubs’ emergence last week makes it even more of a long shot for Watson to establish himself against New England. Watson’s best hope is to break a big play, and New England has allowed just 3 completions of more than 25 yards this season.

WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 4: @Atl.): Bell’s playing time ticked up in week 3, but the passing volume remains too volatile week-to-week to trust any WR beyond Amari Cooper. Bell has seen just two total targets come his way this season.

WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 4: @TB): Chiefs’ offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy guaranteed last week that Skyy Moore would play more than two snaps in week 3, and while 8 offensive snaps are technically more than 2, it’s not the step forward any of us had in mind for him. The problem was that Moore’s week got derailed before it got started when he muffed the first punt of the game, and it got even worse when he was tentative on the next punt and allowed the Colts to pin the Chiefs against their own goal line. I do think we will see Skyy’s snaps start to tick up going forward, but I’m not comfortable considering him for lineups until we see that playing time increase happen.

WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL (Wk. 4: vs. Was.): The Commanders have allowed the 3^rd-most WR points so far this year, but Tolbert isn’t the Dallas WR who will benefit from the favorable matchup. Tolbert was active for the first time Monday night, and he totaled just 1 catch for 4 yards on 2 targets. Michael Gallup is likely to return to action this weekend.

TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 4: vs. Buf.): The hope with Likely was that he was going to emerge as the Ravens’ third target in the passing game behind Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman, but through 3 weeks it’s been Devin Duvernay who has stepped up and earned that role. Likely is earning more targets than Duvernay, but Duvernay is on the field more and is getting targets in the red zone where it counts. Only Mark Andrews has more end zone targets on this team than Duvernay so far. Likely has zero. There is still some weekly upside here. Likely has been hovering around 45-50% route participation and is averaging just under 4 targets per game. There will be a week where he has a breakout performance eventually, but I wouldn’t count on it here against Buffalo. The Bills allow the 4^th-fewest TE points per game.

TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 4: vs. Ten.): Woods made a big impact with his first targets of the season Sunday, finding the end zone twice against Kansas City, but it isn’t much different than OJ Howard scoring twice in week 1. The rookie hasn’t been on the field enough to be trusted yet in fantasy (he has 3 targets for the year), but he’s worth monitoring going forward. Woods’ route participation rate has gone from 7% to 17% to 27% in the first 3 weeks, and he may eventually supplant Kylen Granson as the team’s TE2.

TEs Jake Ferguson & Peyton Hendershot, DAL (Wk. 4: vs. Was.): It’s entirely possible that Dalton Schultz is out again in week 4, but neither Ferguson nor Hendershot dominated the TE work enough to be worth starting consideration this week if Schultz is unable to play. Ferguson played significantly more snaps, but both players garnered just 3 targets on Monday night and only Hendershot did anything with those targets, finishing with a 3-43 line. Both players are just desperation dart throws if Schultz is out again, and since they play at noon Sunday there are plenty of other fallback options if you want to wait on Schultz.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Skylar Thompson, MIA (Wk. 4: @Cin.): You’ll need to keep an eye on the reports on the QB situation here. We saw starting Dolphins’ QB Tua Tagovailoa wobble and fall attempting to walk off a hit on Sunday, but the team allowed him to return to the game in the 2^nd half claiming he didn’t suffer a concussion, but rather had agitated a previous back injury. In any case, he’s listed as questionable for Thursday on a short week. The likeliest outcome if Tua sits would be for veteran Teddy Bridgewater to start in his place, but Head Coach Mike McDaniel is the type that is willing to think outside the box and Thompson played like a star in the preseason. The rookie completed 75% of his passes for 450 yards, 5 TDs, and zero interceptions in the exhibition season and offers a higher ceiling than Teddy B. The Bengals seem like a tough matchup on paper, allowing the 3^rd-fewest QB points per game, but they haven’t faced stiff competition. The 3 QBs they’ve faced so far – Mitch Trubisky, Cooper Rush and Joe Flacco – are the NFL equivalent of facing Glass Joe, Von Kaiser, and the 1^st Piston Honda. If Skylar gets the starting nod, he has real upside as a QB2 if you’re desperate for help at the position this week.

QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 4: vs. NYJ): I mentioned Pickett in this section last week, and Mitch Trubisky didn’t do anything last week to dispel the idea that he should probably be benched for Pickett. If Mitch can’t right the ship against the lowly New York Jets’ defense, I don’t see how the Steelers go into a stretch with games against the Bills, Bucs, Dolphins, and Eagles with Trubisky still under center. In superflex leagues you should probably get ahead of the crowd and stash Pickett before he actually becomes the starter. It’s possible that a mid-game benching occurs this week if Trubisky struggles with the Jets.

RB Trestan Ebner, CHI (Wk. 4: @NYG): The Bears have played coy about the status of David Montgomery’s ankle injury, calling him day-to-day but refusing to definitively say they won’t put him on IR. I wouldn’t assume that he’s going to be out for multiple weeks, but for week 4 he’s probably on the wrong side of questionable. Khalil Herbert has been fantastic in his opportunities, but the Bears run too much for Herbert to handle all the work. I’d like Ebner a lot more if I trusted the Bears to throw enough that we could count on a few targets, but the Giants’ defense has been cooked by smaller, shiftier backs like Dontrell Hilliard (69 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs) and Tony Pollard (105 rushing yards), and they rank dead last in run defense DVOA. Ebner isn’t a great option in season-long leagues, but he has some big-play upside for DFS lineups. He costs just $2,000 in Showdown contests on DraftKings.

RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 4: @Dal.): Robinson isn’t eligible to return from IR until week 5, but practice reports make it sound like he will be activated sooner rather than later. Robinson was slated to be the starting running back before getting about 2 weeks before the season opener, and I would expect him to be a major part of the backfield mix upon his return. The first 3 defenses the Commanders face after Robinson is eligible to return all rank 20^th or worse in run defense DVOA, and two of them are in the bottom-12 at limiting RB fantasy points. Robinson is worth a stash if an impatient manager dropped him while he was on IR.

WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 4: vs. Ten.): Pierce returned in week 3 after missing the prior week with a concussion, and he was immediately a factor. He was in a route for less than 50% of Matt Ryan’s dropbacks, but he managed to turn 5 targets into a 3-61 line against the Chiefs. Michael Pittman is the WR1 here by a wide distance, but Pierce has a real chance to carve out a role as the WR2. His main competition, Parris Campbell, has been a non-factor through 3 weeks. I’d expect Pierce to see more playing time in week 3 against the Titans. Jonathan Taylor is battling a toe injury that has kept him out of practice this week, and the Titans allow the 4^th-most WR points per game. This is a spot where Pierce could have an unexpected splash game of 15+ PPR points.

WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 4: vs. Chi.): Wan’Dale has missed the last two weeks with injury and isn’t practicing as of Wednesday this week, but he should step into a high-volume role as soon as he’s able to get back onto the field. Kadarius Toney alternates between the coach’s doghouse and the injury report, Kenny Golladay may just be done for, and Sterling Shepard suffered a non-contact injury late Monday night that ended his season. Richie James and David Sills have held their own, but there is no one on this depth chart that is going to prevent Robinson from playing when healthy. The rookie opened the season as the starting slot receiver, and he should resume that role when he’s able to play. I’d be hesitant to fire him up this week against a Bears’ defense that has allowed the 10^th-fewest PPR points to slot receivers per Sports Info Solutions, but he shouldn’t be on the waiver wire in deeper leagues.

TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 4: @LV): Like Robinson above, Dulcich was tracking to be a starter to open the season before finding himself on IR and is eligible to be activated in week 5. Albert Okwuegbunam hasn’t done anything to definitively take over the starting job, so I expect Dulcich to be worked in pretty quickly upon his return. The team said he’d be ready to go as soon as he was eligible when they put him on IR, and if that’s still the case he shouldn’t be sitting on waivers in deeper leagues, especially if they’re TE premium. The first opponent Dulcich could face is Indianapolis. The Colts have allowed the 3^rd-most TE points per game.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you pull out a victory this week. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Can you believe we’re already a month into the season? Time flies when you’re watching the Broncos in prime time every week. The first month of the season has been a messy one dominated by sloppy offensive football, injuries, and the Philadelphia Eagles. We’ve seen the ascension of several breakout rookies so far – Chris Olave, Breece Hall, Dameon Pierce, Romeo Doubs, Garrett Wilson – but there could be even more on the horizon. Several injured rookies are set to make their debuts in the next week or two. Bailey Zappe & Kenny Pickett will make their first starts this week. Tyquan Thornton and Brian Robinson Jr. are off IR and ready to take the field, and Greg Dulcich could be back next week.

The list of relevant rookies could be growing, and I’ll be here to break it down each week and help you sift through what to do with these players in your lineups. This week we’re talking more about the tight end position than usual as 4 rookies at the position had multiple catches last week. There’s plenty to discuss, so let’s get to it.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.

Let’s dive into week 5…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 5: vs. Sea.): Olave has been on an absolute roll in the last 3 weeks earning at least a 25% target share and 40% air yardage share in each week, and turned in finishes of WR33, WR6, and WR15 in those games. He wasn’t slowed down by Andy Dalton stepping in at QB in week 4, and with Michael Thomas ruled out for week 5 the rookie should keep operating as the clear WR1 for New Orleans. The Seahawks rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA, and have been especially susceptible to big pass plays, something we know the Saints look for with Olave. The Seahawks have allowed at least one completion of 30+ yards each week and have given up 2 of the five longest pass plays of the season thus far. Start Olave with confidence.

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 5: @TB): London had a down game in week 4, falling short of 12 PPR points for the first time last Sunday, but he topped a 30% target share for the 3^rd straight game and a 30% air yardage share for the 4^th straight game. His fantasy day fell victim to Arthur Smith deciding to “run the piss out of the ball” in the 2^nd half. Tampa Bay is a tough matchup for the rookie. The Bucs rank 3^rd in pass defense DVOA and allow the 13^th-fewest WR points per game. Negative game script should still be enough to get London back on track. Atlanta has trailed by more than 4 points in just one game this year, and London was targeted 12 times in that game. The Falcons are 8.5-point underdogs this week. Volume should give London a WR3 floor in this one, especially with Kyle Pitts ruled out.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Breece Hall, NYJ (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): The switch to Zach Wilson at QB did nothing to derail the red-hot start to the season for Hall. Breece posted his 3^rd-straight top-15 PPR finish and continued to establish himself as the clear RB1 in this backfield. He played 66% of the offensive snaps, handled 65% of the rushing attempts, and was in a route for 61% of Wilson’s dropbacks. The Jets threw the ball less with Wilson back – Flacco averaged 51.7 attempts per game, Wilson was at 36 in his debut – but no matter how the Jets choose to attack Hall is going to be heavily involved. The Dolphins have limited opposing running back production so far. They’ve allowed the 5^th-fewest RB points per game and rank 4^th in run defense DVOA, but I expect volume to keep Breece in the RB2 range this week. His usage would make him a weekly RB1 if he played in a good offense.

RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 5: @Jax.): I don’t know that I’d be able to convince you to sit Pierce if I tried after he put up 25.9 PPR points and finished as the RB5 for the week last weekend, especially considering that he caught 6 passes in the process. The biggest knock on Pierce has been his lack of passing game usage (he totaled 4 targets in the first 3 weeks), and it appears he may be on track to overcoming that. I’d still advise a little caution before going all-in on Pierce. Rex Burkhead was still on the field on almost all the long down & distance snaps and 2-minute offense snaps in week 4, and the Texans are going to continue to be underdogs just about every week. Pierce’s 6 receptions may be a mirage, and he wasn’t very efficient with those catches (8 receiving yards). Pierce benefitted from Houston not abandoning the run when they fell behind against the Chargers, but the Chargers are MUCH easier to attack on the ground than through the air. There will be weeks where they fall behind against teams that are tougher to run against and they abandon it. The Jaguars have allowed the 8^th-most RB points per game, so Pierce is still a solid option this week, but be aware that Jacksonville has allowed the 7^th-fewest rushing yards and ranks 12^th in run defense DVOA. I wouldn’t start Pierce over any of your true studs, but he’s certainly still a top-24 option this week.

WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): On the surface, Wilson’s week 4 stat line was pretty disappointing. Just 2 catches for 41 yards on 6 targets. Those were season lows across the board, and they coincided with the return of starting QB Zach Wilson. If you’ve been starting Garrett Wilson all year, you’re probably pretty concerned that Zach Wilson could be a problem for him, but the underlying numbers give me reasons for optimism. Week 4 was the first time all season that Wilson had a higher route participation rate than Corey Davis, and his 6 targets tied for the team lead. Week 4 was also the first time this year the Jets held a lead at any point prior to the last 30 seconds of a game. The lower passing volume wasn’t just because of the QB change. It was because the game script was more positive. Those bigger pass volume games will still happen with Zach at QB. Zach’s inefficiency last week wasn’t ideal, but I’d expect improvement there as well as he gets more comfortable. For this week’s matchup, the Dolphins rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 5^th-most WR points per game, and the Jets are 3.5-point underdogs. The offense should be throwing, and Garrett Wilson has WR2 upside and has a 6-target floor.

WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 5: vs. NYG): After back-to-back weeks of a 95% route participation rate, I’m ready to declare Doubs at least the WR2 on this football team. He’s earned 8 targets and found the end zone in each of those two games as well, but he also fumbled in each game and dropped what would’ve been a game-winning TD late in regulation last weekend. The Packers still eventually won the game. I wouldn’t get too hung up on the miscues after Green Bay didn’t bench him after them. This offense still runs through the running backs, but Doubs should continue to see at least 6-8 weekly targets while Sammy Watkins is on IR, and probably beyond that. The Giants have allowed the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game, but they rank just 23^rd in pass defense DVOA. The Packers should have success throwing the ball, and Doubs is a solid WR3 option again this week.

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 5: @Buf.): Pickens may be the biggest beneficiary of the Steelers QB switch from Mitch Trubisky to Kenny Pickett. Pickens has been a full-time player all year, but he and Trubisky had struggled to forge much of a connection. The targets were finally coming around in weeks 3 & 4, but the pair connected just 5 times for 70 yards on 11 targets in those 2 games, with 3 of those catches going for 5 yards or fewer. Enter Kenny Pickett in the second half Sunday. Pickett delivered the exact same target share to Pickens that Trubisky did in that game (4 targets on 13 pass attempts), but all 4 of Pickett’s attempts were connections. They totaled 71 yards, and only 1 of the 4 completions went for fewer than 10 yards. Pickett could be the QB that unlocks Pickens. Diontae Johnson is still the #1 receiver here, and the Bills allow the 5^th-fewest WR points per game, but I think there is serious upside for the rookie on Sunday. The Bills are missing safety Jordan Poyer and cornerback Christian Benford for this game, and their two perimeter CB starters will be rookie Kaiir Elam and 2^nd-year pro Dane Jackson. Neither player represents a matchup that you should be scared of. Pickens has a low floor, but his upside makes him a viable WR3/4 option for this game. At the very least, he shouldn’t be available on your league’s waiver wire.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 5: @TB): Falcons’ starting RB Cordarrelle Patterson was placed on IR this week, and Allgeier is the next man up in this backfield, but this is a brutal matchup and Allgeier isn’t the only other back on this team. The Bucs have allowed the 3^rd-fewest RB points per game this season, and only CEH has scored 7+ fantasy points against them at the position on the year. Allgeier carried 10 times last week with C-Patt missing most of the 2^nd half, and Caleb Huntley matched those 10 carries in that game. Avery Williams has also had a role on passing downs, and Damien Williams could return from IR in the next couple weeks. That’s a lot of names that could be involved in this offense. This likely remains enough of a committee in Cordarrelle’s absence that Allgeier should only be trusted in plus matchups, and this week’s matchup is not a good one.

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 5: vs. Atl.): White set season-highs in snap share and targets in week 4 as the Bucs played from behind all night against the Chiefs last Sunday. It’s an open question whether that’s a sign of things to come or was simply a matter of game flow. If his role is indeed growing, the Falcons represent a great matchup since they rank 26^th in run defense DVOA, but White’s easiest path to production is through receiving work, and Atlanta does a good job of limiting that. The Falcons have allowed the 8^th-fewest receptions and 5^th-fewest receiving yards to opposing running backs. For White to have a productive game in week 5, he’s going to need garbage time carries. That’s possible with the Bucs favored by 10 points, but it’s always hard to bank on that for a fantasy lineup.

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 5: vs. LV): Through the season’s first 4 weeks, we’ve seen Pacheco reach 11 carries and 60+ rushing yards twice now, but both of those were games where the Chiefs played from comfortably ahead all day. Only 8 of Pacheco’s 28 carries for the season have come in situations where Kansas City wasn’t ahead by double-digits. Of course, there’s a reasonable chance the Chiefs spend considerable time this week ahead by multiple scores. They’re 7-point favorites against the Raiders. Your confidence in whether Pacheco sees 10+ touches should be based on your confidence that KC plays from ahead. Even if he gets that kind of workload, 10-12 carries against a middling run defense like the Raiders (16^th in run defense DVOA) makes him just a fringe RB3 at best. If you’re in leagues that count return yardage, you may be excited by Pacheco’s 90+ kick return yards each of the last two weeks, but more than 70% of kickoffs by Raiders’ kicker Daniel Carlson this season have resulted in touchbacks.

RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 5: vs. Ten.): Robinson is in line to return in week 5 after being shot twice in the preseason. He was slated to be the starter before landing on the non-football injury list, and he should immediately be part of the running back rotation, but it remains to be seen how big of a role he’ll play in his debut. It’s been reported that he’ll be on a pitch count, and the Titans are much better at defending the run than the pass. The Titans allow the 13^th-fewest RB points per game and rank 8^th in run defense DVOA. I’d wait and see how Robinson looks before getting him into lineups.

RB Kenneth Walker III (Wk. 5: @NO): Walker saw an uptick in usage last Sunday with Travis Homer on IR, but he’s still a distant second to Rashaad Penny on the depth chart. KW3 is yet to see 10+ touches in any game this year, and the Saints have allowed the 6^th-fewest running back points per game. This isn’t a matchup where you should be hoping for production on limited touches for Walker.

WR Kyle Philips, TEN (Wk. 5: @Was.): Philips returned from injury last week but was on the field for just two offensive snaps. He could have a big opportunity on Sunday with teammate Treylon Burks sidelined by a turf toe injury. Phillips led the team with 9 targets and 66 receiving yards as the primary slot receiver in week 1 before getting hurt, and the Commanders have allowed the 2^nd-most PPR points to slot receivers per Sports Info Solutions. The big question is will he go back to that same role this week with Burks out? I’m not convinced he will yet.

WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 5: vs. NYG): Watson made his first trip into the end zone last week on a designed run play, but his route participation rate continued to trend in the wrong direction, He was in a route for just 18% of Aaron Rodgers’ dropbacks. Green Bay has made a point to get the ball into Watson’s hands when he’s on the field, but he just isn’t getting onto the field enough to be in lineups. He hasn’t touched the ball more than 3 times in a game this season.

TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 5: @GB): Bellinger has some sneaky upside this week with the Giants running with a skeleton crew at wide receiver. His playing time remains too low (he’s yet to reach 50% route participation this season), but he’s seen his target per route run and overall target share increase each and every week. He’s a good bet for 5+ targets this week in London, but I wouldn’t bet on big production against a Green Bay defense that ranks 9^th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 4^th-fewest tight end points per game.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 5: @Buf.): The Steelers had finally seen enough of Mitch Trubisky in week 4 after the team failed to get into the red zone and scored just 6 first half points against the lowly New York Jets. They turned to Pickett for the second half, and the final stats were wild. The Rookie completed 10-of-13 passes for 120 yards and 3 interceptions, including one on his first career attempt. Every one of his passes was caught by someone, but far too many were caught by the opponent. Despite the turnovers, Pickett did have success moving the ball and tallied 2 rushing TDs and gave the Steelers a chance to win the game. Pittsburgh would be wise to let him keep playing, but the matchup could not be worse for week 5. Through 4 games the Bills have faced the following lineup of QBs - Matt Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, Tua, and Lamar Jackson – and allowed fewer fantasy points per game to them than Justin Fields & Mitch Trubisky have averaged this season. Good QBs are dicey options against this defense. A rookie making his first career start could have a nightmarish day.

QB Skylar Thompson, MIA (Wk. 5: @NYJ): Tua Tagovailoa will sit out this week with a concussion, but it’ll be Teddy Bridgewater who gets the start, not Thompson. Skylar is one injury away from getting playing time against a bad defense, but if things go as planned for Miami, Thompson won’t take a snap.

RB Trestan Ebner, CHI (Wk. 5: @Min.): Ebner continues to play a complementary role to Khalil Herbert with David Montgomery sidelined. It’s just not a big enough role for him to have fantasy relevance given how little the Bears throw the ball. Minnesota is a plus matchup for running backs, coughing up the 5^th-most points per game to the position, but Ebner has yet to reach 30 scrimmage yards in a game, and anything over that mark against the Vikings should be considered a bonus.

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 5: @Buf.): Different week, same story for Warren. He’s purely a handcuff to Najee and doesn’t really have standalone value for now, especially against a daunting Buffalo defense in a game where the Steelers are 2-touchdown underdogs.

RB Jordan Mason, SF (Wk. 5: @Car.): Tyrion Davis-Price remains out this week, and Mason has played just 5 offensive snaps in the last two weeks. This backfield belongs to Jeff Wilson Jr. at least until TDP returns with Deebo Samuel operating as the change-of-pace back.

WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 5: vs. LV): We finally saw Kansas City start to make good on promises to get Skyy Moore involved in the offense last weekend, as the rookie had his highest route participation (25%) and target total (4) of the season. Those numbers should continue to climb as the season goes on since MVS and Mecole Hardman have predictably underwhelmed, but his playing time isn’t quite to a level where you can consider him for lineups.

WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. LAC): The Browns still don’t throw the ball enough to support more than a couple pass catchers, and Bell remains too far down the depth chart to be one of those. He may need an injury ahead of him to have any value before Deshaun Watson returns.

WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 5: @Min.): Jones was active for the first time in week 4, and he played zero offensive snaps. There’s nothing here for now.

WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL (Wk. 5: @LAR): With Michael Gallup back from IR it’s an open question when Tolbert will be active for a game again. He’s been inactive for 3 of the first 4 contests, and Gallup’s return makes it even harder for the rookie to carve out a role.

WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 5: @GB): Wan’Dale is getting closer to returning to the lineup and having some sleeper value, but he’s trending toward being inactive again in week 5. The Giants desperately need WR help right now, but Robinson doesn’t look likely to deliver that help this week. He has a chance to be a PPR maven once he’s able to get back on the field.

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. Ten.): If you missed the news, Dotson is expected to be out a week or two with a hamstring injury. This would be a great matchup for the rookie if he were to play, but it’s a moot point with him ruled out.

WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 5: @Was.): Like Dotson on the other side of this matchup, Burks will be sidelined for week 5 after being carted off with a turf toe injury last weekend. He was originally listed as doubtful, and was moved to IR later in the week.  

TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): McBride is worth monitoring in the coming weeks after he finally saw his first passing game action in week 4. He played a season-high 42% of the offensive snaps and pulled in 3 catches on 3 targets for 24 yards as the Cardinals used 2 tight end sets more often than they had in previous weeks. It’s a promising development, but I wouldn’t plug him into any lineups just yet. The Eagles are in the top-12 at limiting TE points and rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA. If McBride’s usage this week is similar or better to what we saw in week 4, he’s going to be a sneaky option against the Seahawks in week 6. Seattle allows the most TE points per game. Things will get dicey for his usage again after week 6 when DeAndre Hopkins returns from suspension.

TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 5: @Was.): Okonkwo had a surprising 3-38-1 line last weekend against the Colts after seeing just 1 target in the first 3 weeks, but don’t be fooled into thinking you can plug him into lineups if you’re desperate. Okonkwo was still in a route on fewer than 20% of Ryan Tannehill’s dropbacks in that game and was on the field for just 13 offensive snaps. Maybe that role grows in the coming weeks (especially now that Treylon Burks is on IR), but you’re just praying for a TD if you plug the rookie into any lineups this week. The Commanders have allowed just 1 tight end score in the first 4 weeks.

TEs Peyton Hendershot & Jake Ferguson, DAL (Wk. 5: @LAR): With Dalton Schultz back in action Sunday, the rookie duo combined for 21 offensive snaps and just one target in week 4. Move along.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Bailey Zappe, NE (Wk. 5: vs. Det.): Zippin’ Bailey Zappe became the first rookie QB to throw a touchdown pass this season, and he’s in line for his first career start this week with Mac Jones still battling an ankle sprain and Brian Hoyer on IR with a concussion. There is no softer landing spot he could draw for that first start than facing the Detroit Lions. The Lions have allowed the most QB fantasy points per game and rank an abysmal 28^th in pass defense DVOA. Zappe’s throws look like they have less zip on them than you see from some high school QBs, but he was highly efficient at Western Kentucky last year, throwing for nearly 6,000 yards and 62 TDs in 14 games. Zappe has the upside to be a high-end QB2 this week.

RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 5: vs. Pit.): Cook hasn’t seen the field or the ball much in the last two weeks, but that could change against the Steelers on Sunday. The Bills are two-touchdown favorites in this game, and the last time they won in a blowout Cook led the backfield with 11 touches and 53 scrimmage yards. Most of those touches came in the 4^th quarter in garbage time, but that same kind of garbage time might exist in this game. Cook could see additional passing game work early on as well. Gabe Davis is playing through an ankle injury, and both slot receivers could be in week 5. Jamison Crowder broke his ankle and Isaiah McKenzie suffered a concussion last Sunday. Crowder is out indefinitely, and McKenzie is questionable. Tight end Dawson Knox has also been ruled out for this game. If McKenzie sits, there will be some receiving opportunities up for grabs, some of which could go to Cook. It’s impossible to rely on garbage time production in season-long leagues but Cook costs just $1,400 in DraftKings Showdown contests.

WR Khalil Shakir, BUF (Wk. 5: vs. Pit.): As I mentioned above with James Cook, the Bills could be missing both of their top-2 slot receivers and their tight end on Sunday against a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed the 4^th-most PPR points to slot receivers this year per Sports Info Solutions. Shakir would likely be the guy who steps into the slot role if McKenzie is out. Crowder and McKenzie have averaged a combined 8.5 targets per game. Shakir has a realistic shot at 5-6 targets in this one, and there is value in that in a plus matchup with Josh Allen throwing him the ball.

WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 5: vs. Det.): In deeper leagues there’s a chance Thornton was forgotten about after he suffered a broken collarbone in the preseason. He’s worth a stash in those leagues if he’s still available. Thornton made a speedier than expected recovery from the injury and has been activated from IR ahead of week 5. It’s hard to trust a Bill Belichick drafted wide receiver, but Thornton ran a blazing 4.28-second 40-yard dash at the combine and has serious big play upside. I’d expect him to be eased in after missing so much time, but he’s worth picking up in deeper leagues. No one beyond Jakobi Meyers has proven to be irreplaceable in this WR group.

TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 5: vs. Cin.): Likely is coming off a zero-target game in week 4, but his playing time has remained fairly steady this season (20-26 snaps played each game) and the Ravens will be without Rashod Bateman this week. With Bateman out, Likely should be the 3^rd option in the passing game behind Mark Andrews and Devin Duvernay. The Bengals are a middling TE defense (19^th-most points allowed per game to TEs), but there is an opportunity for Likely to have his best game to-date as a pro.

TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 5: vs. Atl.): Cam Brate has been ruled out with a concussion, and Otton is in line to start in his place against the Falcons, who allow the 3^rd-most TE points per game. Otton garnered 4 targets on Sunday night against the Chiefs with Brate banged up. Don’t get too carried away here. There are game script concerns that could limit overall passing volume. Tom Brady has averaged 47 passing attempts in Tampa’s two losses this season and 30.5 attempts in their wins. Otton could be in line for 4+ catches if this game stays competitive.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you pick up a W in week 5. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Well, this has been my most embarrassing survivor pool performance by a long shot. Two picks, both heavy favorites, both losing on missed field goals as the clock ran out. The main pool I entered had 1924 entries and saw 1180 of those eliminated in the very first week. My picks, the Titans and the Broncos, were polarizing examples of how coaching can decide a game. The Giants first-year coach, Brian Daboll, showed that he understands the game of football and decided on a 2pt try rather than a tie late in the fourth quarter to secure his first coaching win.

Then there were the Broncos. Such superior talent on the team allowed them to remain in the contest in spite of numerous mental mistakes and poor coaching decisions. That is, until the final drive, as their 250 million dollar quarterback is driving them down the field to complete a 4th quarter comeback and Nathaniel Hackett decides to let the clock run down from a minute plus to 20 seconds on a 4th and 5 to attempt a 64 yard field goal. I have never in my life seen a worse coaching decision. It might be the only instance in the history of the universe to have a unanimous disagreement with the call. I'm serious. If we can somehow harness the solidarity of the opposition to that decision we could have world peace, it was truly amazing! It crushes me as a Broncos fan to come to the realization that they will be wasting several years of Wilson's career with this bozo at the helm. Normally, one bad decision can be written off, but something that bad shows he is not ready for the responsibility of being a head coach and will be learning on the job.

Anyways, take the Packers this week. Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears and is 6-0 coming off a loss with Matt LaFleur as coach. I think you should fade the other big favorite 49ers vs the Seahawks. Trey Lance has yet to prove he can play and in no way deserves 9.5 points.

Cheers!
Drink Five!