Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Extra football! We get extra football!!

Unfortunately, the extra week will include a decent amount of games where we will see starters for a quarter or two. Obviously this will add a degree of difficulty for us as we make our picks – the Packers are obviously far superior to the Lions…but are their backups?

Before we get into it, I just wanted to say thank you again for following along this year! I hope I helped you in your pools this year…and I’ll see you in September!

Week 18 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – BUFFALO over New  York Jets –  The Bills get lucky with a home game against the Jets when the division is on the line.

15 – TAMPA BAY over Carolina – >>Insert obligatory Antonio Brown comment here (though the less said about him the better)

14 – ARIZONA over Seattle – Think it’s safe to say this is an end of an era game for the Seahawks – welcome to rebuilding. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that BOTH RUSSELL WILSON AND PETE CARROLL WILL BE OUT OF SEATTLE THIS OFF-SEASON.

13 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over San Francisco – The 9ers have been playing pretty solid lately, unfortunately for them the Rams are playing for the division title.

12 – Indianapolis over JACKSONVILLE – Not only do the Colts get an easy path to clinch a playoff spot, they also get to leave the cold temps in Indy and head to Florida to do so!

11 – MINNESOTA over Chicago – Just one more game, Bears fans…just one more game.

10 – New England over Miami – After such a long winning streak, its odd to think that the Dolphins are far away from contending…but that’s what it seems like.

9 – Kansas City over DENVER – The Broncos have been getting a lot of “just wait ‘til next year” talk…I don’t see it.

8 – BALTIMORE over Pittsburgh – Yes there is a glimmer of playoff hope for the Steelers, but I think they left everything on the field last week.

7 – Tennessee over HOUSTON – This one may be one of those games we talked about depending on who Tennessee plays, but I still just cant see a Texans win.

6 – ATLANTA over New Orleans – David Banner mentioned watching the Falcons play the Saints in one of his songs…that’s about as excited as I can get on this one.

5 – PHILADELPHIA over Dallas – Just seems like another last week of the season game the Cowboys blow in Philly.

4 – Cincinnati over CLEVELAND – Really think the Bengals could play 22 backups and could beat the Browns right now.

3 – Los Angeles Chargers over LAS VEGAS – Yes, there is a part of me that is picking the Chargers thinking that it will help the Raiders win…seems to be how my Raider picks have been going lately.

2 – NEW  YORK GIANTS over Washington – Normally, picking the Giants to win is a solid choice for the one-point line…except when…

1 – DETROIT over Green Bay – …you think the Lions will beat the Packers. Green Bay has already locked up home-field in the playoffs, so the Lions get to play backups.

Like any rookie class, it behooves all of us to take a deeper look into who we're dealing with as our drafts get nearer. Basically, do your homework! Today, we'll look at the top 10 rookies, according to Dave's rankings (go to the RK section for these guys). We asked ourselves a few questions, like: What is their landing spot like? What kind of impact can they have in the early/late season? What does their spot on the depth chart currently look like? 

For an in-depth discussion, check out our first podcast of 2022, where we go over these guys in depth, as well as the top 10 ADP players.

Rank - Player Name (POS-TEAM) - Rookie ECR Rank (Difference between ours and ECR)

1 - Breece Hall (RB-NYJ) - ECR 1 (0) - Hall was selected as the 36th pick overall and the 1st RB drafted. He is a workhorse-type RB that should take over 50% of the team’s workload this year and that transition should happen quickly, if not immediately. Sorry, Michael Carter fans. Of all the RBs from this class, Hall has the clearest path to finishing as a top 10 scorer at the position. During his three years at Iowa State, Hall was a great pass catcher – in 2021 he caught 36 balls for 302 yards and 3 TDs. The Jets’ running backs had a total of 15 drops recorded in the 2021 season, more than any other group of RBs in the league. He has also been praised for his pass protection ability and should enter the NFL as an average to above average pass-blocker – not something that every starting RB can say about themselves. Again, the Jets’ RBs allowed 15 pressures last season (4 of which were sacks), both of those stats tying for 2nd most at the position. A big play RB for Iowa State, he maximizes good blocking to create huge plays (3 rushes over 70+ yards last year, for example). PFF rates the Jets’ offensive line at #13 this season and one could argue a case for them even being a little higher in the rankings – all of this proves that there will be opportunities created for Hall this year… the Jets got their guy, and he should put up RB1 numbers from early on in the season. Week 1 against the Ravens will be a test, though!

2 - Drake London (WR-ATL) - ECR 2 (0) - London was taken by the Falcons with the 8th overall pick in this year’s draft, and was the first fantasy/skill player taken. Drake has a good chance to make an impact as a rookie, but he will be limited by the fact that the Falcons are rebuilding. The Falcons returning WRs had just 31 receptions from last year, all of them from Olamide Zaccheaus. This is basically an entirely new WR group. While he may slot in as the WR1 as early as the start of the season - he will still have to contend with Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson for touches. It’s certainly feasible that he leads the team in targets by the end of the year. He averaged 14.8 targets per game at USC last season. Drake and the Falcons will be limited with Marcus Mariota as their starting QB - I suspect they will go shopping for an early first round QB in the 2023 draft unless Mariota far exceeds expectations.

3 - Ken Walker III (RB-SEA) - ECR 5 (+2) - Walker was drafted with the 41st overall pick from Michigan State. With Chris Carson retiring from the NFL yesterday after undergoing neck-fusion surgery in December of last year, the RB depth chart in Seattle has Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Walker firmly entrenched at the top. Without Russell Wilson’s dual-threat abilities - which limited options for defenders - and considering their league-worst offensive line (according to PFF) the offense will struggle mightily. But even low scoring teams have to start some kind of offense - and whether that offense is led by Geno Smith, Drew Lock, or even Jimmy Garropolo, it will be a primarily rushing offense that coach Pete Carroll brings back onto the field in 2022. Walker led the nation last year with over 1,000 yards after contact, and could absolutely end up as the primary back in Seattle later this season, but that’s only likely to happen if Rashaad Penny is unable to maintain his position as the starter. Penny led all RBs in production over the last stretch of 2021, running for over 700 yards in the last 6 games. He has had injury concerns and issues in the past though, and signed a one-year contract earlier this year to keep him with the Seahawks but only until 2023. It’s reasonable to project, then, that whoever the starter in Seattle is will have at least low-end RB2 value based purely on volume, and that it could be Walker that ends up closing the year with that title. 

4 - Garrett Wilson (WR-NYJ) - ECR 4 (0) - Garrett Wilson was the second fantasy/skill player off the board this year, going 10th overall to the Jets. Wilson came from an Ohio State team littered with elite talent - his teammate Chris Olave went right after him at 11. In New York, he will not have the same advantage that Drake London has in joining a room with barely any returning talent. The Jets will have Elijah Moore leading the way, along with other WRs who combined for over 130 receptions last year returning in 2022. Wilson will have to be brought along slowly, and is more likely to shine late in the year, if he is to shine at all in his rookie season. It remains to be seen if Zach Wilson can be an elite QB and support multiple legit fantasy threats. Fortunately for Garrett Wilson, we do know that he can put up big numbers on a team with other elite talent around him.

5 - Treylon Burks (WR-TEN) - ECR 3 (-2) - The number 18 overall pick in the draft has already been put through the ringer by sports media. I think it’s fun for them. Here are the important things to remember about Burks: 1. The Titans traded A.J. Brown because they could draft Burks as their WR1 of the future. They were already sold on him. 2. There was a lot of noise over the past several weeks about issues with asthma and conditioning, but the latest reports are already talking about big plays during practice and there have been no issues with conditioning tests leading up to training camp. Burks is a big bodied (6’2”, 220 lbs) receiver that makes both acrobatic and contested catches. He has been compared to both A.J. Brown and Mike Evans in his play style. He put up over 1100 yards and 11 TDs last year for Arkansas, and accounted for the majority of their offense. It seems likely that Burks will be selected too early in redraft leagues, however, since it may take some time for him to get up to speed with the Titans offense, the recently acquired Robert Woods is likely to suck up the majority of the targets (at least for this season), and Derrick Henry and the ground game should still continue to be the team’s focal point.

6 - Jameson Williams (WR-DET) - ECR 6 (0) - Williams was picked 12th overall by the Lions, despite having torn his ACL in the CFB Championship game back in January. He is a big play guy who had the fifth most receiving yards in the nation last year, 79 rec, 1572 yds, 15 TD. I like this landing spot in Detroit because he will be able to bolster what has developed into a solid WR group. Amon-Ra St. Brown’s emergence as a top WR threat late last year was impressive, and shows some promise for the Lions, despite having Jared Goff as their starting QB still. Goff has not shown any aptitude for throwing the deep ball. He was 27th among 33 qualifiers for yards per attempt with 6.6, and dead last among qualifiers for intended air yards per attempt at 6.4. This measures the average depth of target. The point I’m getting at here is that Jared Goff does not throw the ball down the field, so Williams will need to make his big plays by breaking away after the catch. While I like the landing spot so that he is not the sole focus of the defense when he’s on the field, the Lions really could stand to have an upgrade at QB to get the most out of their WRs. I do not expect Williams to have any early season impact due to his ACL tear - he isn’t expected to be back until October at the earliest. He is a candidate for a late season breakout, so he can be a good waiver wire pickup once he returns to action. I do not recommend drafting him in any but the very deepest redraft leagues.

7 - Chris Olave (WR-NO) - ECR 7 (0) - Olave, out of Ohio State, was chosen 11th overall by the New Orleans Saints. They basically traded picks 98, 101, and 120, a 2023 first-rounder, and a 2024 second-rounder in order to select Olave. Not a receiver that gets a lot of yards after the catch, but he has sub 4.4 40-yard dash speed, good size at 6’, 185 lbs, and has been considered to be the best pure route runner in this class of WRs. He finished his college career as the Big Ten’s 4th leading touchdown receiver of all time. Looking at the latest footage of Michael Thomas back at practice and seeing the Saints acquire veteran slot receiver Jarvis Landry earlier this year puts a damper on hopes that Olave could become a primary target in this offense for 2022. But that’s ok - he should be looked at as the WR2/3 on an unpredictable offense that could spread the ball around a lot depending on the health of Michael Thomas over the course of the season. Olave should have more of a late-season impact after we see what shakes out in New Orleans over the first half of the season, but if Thomas or Landry are not up to snuff early on, Olave will immediately slot in as a solid WR2 for the Saints.

8 - Christian Watson (WR-GB) - ECR 9 (+1) - Watson was chosen by the Packers with the 34th overall pick. This is the highest that the Packers have chosen a WR in the Aaron Rodgers era (other notables, Jordy Nelson (36), Randall Cobb (64), Davante Adams (53)). Watson comes with high expectations and a very high ceiling for his overall performance. He, unfortunately, landed on the PUP list with a still unknown injury. If he’s limited through training camp and the preseason, this will put a huge damper on his rookie season possibilities. Rodgers is not one to typically light up a rookie with targets - 38 receptions is the most any rookie has had with him. However, the Packers lost 224 targets from last year, so someone has to be there to catch the ball. As of now, there’s no indication that Watson will miss any game time, so he has the potential for action early on, but I wouldn’t count on anything significant until later in the year, if at all. He will need to pass Randall Cobb on the depth chart (a favorite of Rodgers), in order to see serious weekly fantasy relevance. This is a fantastic landing spot for dynasty purposes, however, and I think his next couple of seasons could be huge.

9 - Skyy Moore (WR-KC) - ECR 8 (-1) - Kansas City selected Moore in the 2nd round (54th pick overall) as the 13th WR off the board. With Tyreek Hill high-tailing it out of Kansas City for a big contract in Miami, the Chiefs have been gobbling up receivers like JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdez-Scantling, and already rostered Mecole Hardman (who was the 56th pick in the 2019 draft). Moore put up 94 catches for 1283 yards and 10 TDs last year at Western Michigan, and would have presumably put up bigger numbers prior to that except he was behind Seahawk receiver Dee Eskridge on the depth chart. An outside receiver with 4.41 speed, Moore is slighter of build (5’10”, 195 lbs) than the recent WR additions to the team - and profiles very similarly to Hardman. It’s hard not to see this as one more attempt to find a quick outside target for Mahomes and we will likely see Moore cannibalize snaps from Hardman as his chemistry with the long-armed QB is put to the test throughout the season. From a redraft perspective Moore is a dangerous pick that may not pan out at all this season. It is a great landing spot for a receiver, though, so who can fault the gambler for rolling the dice in hopes for a great return? Not me.

10 - Jahan Dotson (WR-WAS) - ECR 10 (0) - Dotson was chosen 16th overall by the Washington Commanders and has been getting heaps of praise so far during OTAs from his coaches. With Terry McLaurin holding out until the end of June, Dotson got lots of reps with new Commanders QB Carson Wentz. This landing spot is good for Dotson because he is in line to start opposite McLaurin in Week 1. Dotson was in the top 20 in receiving yards his senior year, putting up 91 rec for 1182 yards and scoring 12 TDs. Dotson appears to be one of the rookie WRs that is best poised to step into a fantasy relevant role early in the season. He’s on a team where he’s being inserted near the top of the depth chart, this team has a new QB - which means basically a new offense. He’s starting at the ground floor. I expect him to have growing pains like any rookie, but it’s a great spot and he’s a good candidate for early season success, unlike many other rookies.

Guess who’s back! Back again! Um…well…it’s me!

More so than that, it’s football!

It’s safe to say that college football got us primed with the amazing game and finishes we had last weekend. But…I mean…come on! There’s nothing like Week 1 of the NFL Season!

I don’t know about you, but seven months is LONG enough, let’s get back at it!

Week 1 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – TENNESSEE over New York Giants – I don’t think the Giants will be AS bad as it looks like they could be…but they’ll look pretty bad in Nashville on Sunday.

15 – CINCINNATI over Pittsburgh – Welcome back to starting NFL games, Mitch Trubiski! Your prize is a road game against the defending conference champs.

14 – WASHINGTON over Jacksonville – Enjoy it Commander fans, can’t see your team this high on a confidence pool much this year. Well…not as the winner.

13 – Baltimore over New York Jets – Safe to say that Lamar Jackson will be playing like he wants someone to pay him.

12 – Indianapolis over HOUSTON – The Texans might be building a bit of an underrated future for themselves…unfortunately for them Jonathan Taylor will probably run for over 200 yards in the very near present.

11 – CAROLINA over Cleveland – This has to feel like the Super Bowl for Baker Mayfield.

10 – MINNESOTA over Green Bay – I’m not ignorant enough to say Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will have a horrible offense without Davante Adams – but there will be a little “feeling out” period with the new WR group.

9 – MIAMI over New England – Tyreek Hill should be able to provide a decent amount of false hope for Dolphins fans after this one.

8 – DALLAS over Tampa Bay – Heads up, Cowboy fans are going to be insufferable after this one.

7 – ATLANTA over New Orleans – …aaaaand we have our “This game is being playing because it’s on the schedule” level of excitement game of the season.

6 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Buffalo – Last year’s champs start the season hosting what could be our Super Bowl matchup this year. This isn’t a gambling piece but the Rams are currently the underdogs (+2)…just something to keep in mind.

5 – Las Vegas over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS – Those who think this outcome will be different than the epic that ended the 2021 season because of home field advantage for the Chargers haven’t seen the Raider Nation take over San Diego/LA.

4 – Kansas City over ARIZONA – The Chiefs offense will take a hit after losing their top receiver…but so will the Cardinals.

3 – Denver over SEATTLE – Yes, Russell Wilson will beat his old team - but with all the hype around the Broncos, my BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE BONCOS WILL FINISH LAST IN THE AFC WEST.

2 – DETROIT over Philadelphia – Yeah I’ll accept that this is just a Hard Knocks Hype pick.

1 – CHICAGO over San Francisco – It’s sad to say that the Bears will be a team this year that if you think they’ll win, don’t put them too much higher than the one-point line.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s been a long, dreadful 7-month wait for NFL games that matter to return, but we’ve made it! We’re mere hours away from week 1, which means it’s time once again to set your fantasy lineups, and that means I’m back to help you figure out what to do with your rookies.

If you’re new to the Rookie Report, here’s how it works: Each week I’ll look at the upcoming matchup for all the fantasy-relevant rookies and give you my take on what to do with them for that week. I’ll give you some quick-hitting info about guys you already know you should start or sit, and I’ll dig a little deeper on the borderline rookies to give you some info to help you make that decision for the week. I’ll also include some deep league sleepers, stashes for the future, and cheap DFS plays that I like among rookies for those of you who are in deeper leagues or like to play DFS.

This year’s rookie class is an interesting one. There was only 1 QB taken before round 3 of the NFL draft and zero rookie QBs slated to start in week 1, but there were an absurd 13 wide receivers taken in the first two rounds and a number of other intriguing guys drafted in rounds 3 & 4. I have a feeling a lot of this year’s Rookie Report will be devoted to the wide receiver class.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 1…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

NONE – There are no rookies that should be an auto-start in week 1 for your lineups. The 2 guys who should be the safest based on draft capital and expected role are Drake London and Breece Hall. Both face tough week 1 matchups and have question marks that make them less than a sure thing for the openers.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 1: vs. Ind.): Pierce has been one of the most polarizing players this preseason after winning the Texans’ RB1 job out of camp as a 4^th-round draft pick. The debate has been about whether he’s actually a good starting RB, or if he was just the best of a lackluster group of options in Houston. Regardless of the answer to that question, we know he’s going to get rushing volume. The Texans changed coaches this offseason, but they’re likely to remain conservative as an offense. Houston passed the ball at just the 19^th highest rate last year despite finishing 4-13 and constantly playing from behind. That means they’re willing to run when they probably shouldn’t. I don’t expect Pierce to stay in the game on passing downs. That job should fall to Rex Burkhead, but that doesn’t mean Pierce can’t pull in a few receptions to go along with probably 15+ carries in week 1. The Colts’ run defense was stingy in 2021, ranking 3^rd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA, but the switch from DC Matt Eberflus to Gus Bradley could mean some regression is coming. Bradley runs a base cover-3 defense and doesn’t do a ton of blitzing. In fact, according to Pro Football Reference Bradley’s defenses have blitzed at the lowest rate in the NFL in each of the last 3 years (and 3^rd-lowest rate in 2018). It’s caused his defenses to traditionally be pretty good against the pass, but bad against the run. Bradley’s defenses have ranked in the bottom half of the league in rushing yards allowed and rushing TDs allowed in each of the last 3 seasons, and his Raiders’ defense last year allowed the 4^th-most running back points per game. If you’re considering Pierce for a start in week 1, I’d feel good about slotting him in the lineup.

WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 1: @Atl.): Olave enters week 1 looking like a clear starter for the Saints opposite Michael Thomas with Jarvis Landry in the slot. Thomas has been battling a hamstring injury, and while he looks likely to play it’s easy to wonder if it hampers his performance in the opener. The Falcons allowed the 2^nd-most fantasy points in the league last year to wide receivers lined up on the perimeter, per Sports Info Solutions (SIS). They did add Casey Heyward Jr. at corner to help shore up that issue, but I still like Olave to get loose for a handful of catches in a strong debut performance. Part of the problem for the Falcons is that they generated QB pressure at the lowest rate in the league last year, and they did little to address the issue in the offseason. You can’t ask your corners to cover forever. Something in the range of 5-75 with a possible TD would be a nice finish for Olave in the opener.

WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 1: vs. NYG): Depending on who you ask, Burks’ training camp and preseason ranged anywhere from okay to pretty bad, to a complete dumpster fire. It started with reports that his conditioning was an issue early in camp. Then came the preseason games where Burks played into the 4^th quarter in each of the first two contests and didn’t produce much with his opportunities. It became clear that he wasn’t working with the starters yet, which is unexpected for a guy who was drafted in the top 20 picks by a team that just traded away their WR1. At the end of the day, I bought into the camp reports a bit and was expecting a slow start to the season for Burks. Then I saw his week 1 matchup. The Giants are shaky at corner after releasing James Bradberry as a cap casualty in the offseason, and new DC Wink Martindale loves to play aggressive defense with a lot of blitzing and asking his CBs to play man coverage. I expect the Titans to combat this by trying to get the ball into the hands of their playmakers in space quickly, and they don’t have a more dynamic playmaker than Burks. Much like Derrick Henry (although not to the same degree), Burks is a player you don’t want to tackle when he’s running full speed in the open field. I like his chances of breaking a big play or two against this vulnerable defense. Burks is listed as the team’s WR2 on their first depth chart released for the regular season.

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 1: @Cin.): Pickens will be a starter in 3-wide sets for the Steelers in week 1, and with Diontae Johnson battling a shoulder injury he could make a splash in his debut against the defending AFC champs. Mike Tomlin hasn’t expressed any concern about Diontae being able to play in the opener, but Johnson may be out there as more of a decoy than a featured target. Johnson should draw shadow coverage from Chidobe Awuzie, who graded as PFF’s 18^th-best cover corner in 2021. Chase Claypool should draw Mike Hilton in the slot (PFF’s 5^th best slot cover corner in ’21). That leaves oft picked on Eli Apple as Pickens’ week one adversary. I like George’s chances to lead the Steelers in receiving yards in week 1, and he looks like a guy who will be much more productive as a pro than he was in college. 60+ yards and a possible TD feels like a likely outcome for Pickens in the opener. 

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): Dotson won the starting WR job opposite Terry McLaurin in camp, and he gets a soft landing for his NFL debut. The Jaguars allowed the 7^th-most WR points per game last season and ranked 31^st in pass defense DVOA, and their best corner Shaquill Griffin is likely to follow Terry McLaurin around. That leaves youngster Tyson Campbell to match up with Dotson. With Washington likely missing starting TE Logan Thomas, Dotson should see a healthy number of targets come his way in a game where Carson Wentz should be motivated to exorcise some demons. It was his performance in an embarrassing loss in the week 18 meeting with the Jaguars that changed the trajectory of Wentz’s career. That loss was the final nail in his coffin in Indy, the second stop that he’s been booted from in as many years. This year may be his last chance to prove he can be someone’s franchise QB and putting it on the Jaguars would be a good way to start. If Wentz makes good on that, Dotson will be a primary beneficiary.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

RB Breece Hall, NYJ (Wk. 1: vs. Bal.): Hall seemed like a slam dunk to open the season as the Jets' workhorse running back when he was drafted in April, but he somehow failed to beat out Michael Carter for the starting job in training camp. It appears Hall will open the season in a committee akin to the one we saw between Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon last season in Denver. It’s not a great development if you drafted Hall to be a starting running back, especially in a week where he faces a Ravens’ defense that ranked 4^th in run defense DVOA stat last season. This is the kind of matchup where I’d be calling him a floor RB2 if he were the workhorse. Instead, he’s a fringe flex play that doesn’t appear to have a ton of ceiling.

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 1: @Dal.): White is only a borderline option in the deepest of PPR leagues. The Bucs leaned heavily on Leonard Fournette in 2021, and while they’re likely to do that again in ’22, they probably want to lighten the load at least a little after he missed crucial time down the stretch with injury last season. They used a 3^rd round pick on White and he’s already worked his way up to #2 on the depth chart behind Lenny. I expect the workload split here to look something like we’ve seen with Dallas where Fournette is in the Zeke Elliott role and White is Tony Pollard. He’ll mix in for some change of pace work and some receiving opportunities, but Lenny is the workhorse. White is a great stash in case his role is bigger than expected or anything happens to Fournette, but he isn’t a great play in week 1 against a Dallas defense that allowed the 3^rd-fewest RB points per game last season.

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. vs. NO): London returns from a knee injury in time for week 1, but he’s had very limited practice time this preseason. I’d be surprised if he plays a full complement of snaps in the opener, and many of the snaps he does play should be matched up with Saints’ top corner Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore had a 76.4 PFF coverage grade and allowed fewer than 8 yards per target into his coverage in 2021. I wouldn’t count on more than 5-6 targets for the rookie in the opener, which may not get London to 50+ yards against Lattimore.

WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 1: @Hou.): Pierce draws a favorable matchup in his first time out against a Houston defense that allowed the 5^th-most fantasy points last year to wide receivers lined up out wide (Parris Campbell figures to play mostly in the slot), but this shapes up as a game where the Colts will have no problem relying on Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman to do most of the heavy lifting. Pittman is the clear WR1 in this offense, and the Texans won’t have an answer for him when the Colts need to throw, and they shouldn’t need to throw a ton. Pierce could see a few targets come his way, but this should be a low passing volume week for the Colts, and the scraps that go to Pierce are unlikely to amount to a strong fantasy game.  

WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 1: vs. Bal): The Jets have listed Wilson as a backup on the depth chart behind Braxton Berrios ahead of the opener, but I have a hunch Wilson will be on the field a fair amount in week 1. They didn’t draft him in the first round to not have a role, and the Jets are going to be playing from behind as a touchdown underdog at home. The Ravens are a much tougher pass defense than last year’s #30 rank in pass defense DVOA would indicate. Their secondary was decimated by injuries last year and appears back to full health to start 2022. The return of Marcus Peters and the addition of Kyle Fuller make this a defense I don’t want to use Wilson against unless I KNOW he’s playing a full complement of snaps. We don’t know that for week 1.

WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL (Wk. 1: vs. TB): Michael Gallup’s status remains in doubt for week 1, and Tampa Bay’s stout defensive front had teams throwing early and often against them last season since they couldn’t run the ball with any success. Dak Prescott attempted a whopping 58 passes against the Bucs in week 1 last year as Zeke Elliott struggled to just 33 rushing yards. There’s a pretty good possibility Dallas employs a similar strategy this time around, and that kind of passing volume makes Tolbert intriguing. The problem is that he’s failed to separate himself from guys like Noah Brown, Semi Fehoko, and KaVontae Turpin in camp. It’s likely all 4 guys play some snaps in the opener if Gallup is out, and we could even see Tony Pollard get some slot snaps as well after he did some work there in camp. The passing game will run through CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz, and the running backs in the opener, and you’re likely grasping at straws if you start any of their other receivers in week 1.

TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 1: @Ten.): For deeper TE-premium leagues, Bellinger may be on your radar for week 1 after winning the starting tight end job in New York. I’d steer clear for the opener. The Titans allowed the 6^th-fewest TE points per game last season, and we all know about the likelihood of early success for rookie tight ends. You can likely find a better option for week 1.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

All of the rookie QBs: None of the rookie signal callers are slated to start in week 1, and if the draft is any indication, I’d be pessimistic about the entire class. 2022 was the 6^th time since 1990 that no QB was taken in the top-15 picks of the NFL draft. The first QBs off the board in those other 5 drafts have a combined total of one top-12 fantasy season between them (by Chad Pennington). That bodes poorly for Kenny Pickett, and none of the other rookie QBs this year garnered better than a 3^rd-round draft pick.

RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 1: @LAR): Cook enters week 1 in a messy 3-way committee with Devin Singletary and Zack Moss, and he faces a defense that allowed the 9^th-fewest RB points per game last season and remains one of the most talented defensive units in the NFL. Cook’s likely to see a handful of touches in week 1, but he’s going to be hard to trust as anything more than an upside play in DFS contests. He costs the minimum for the full slate on DraftKings, and $2,800 for showdown contests.

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 1: vs. Den.): Walker has been battling a hernia injury (the non-sports variety) throughout camp. It’s still up in the air whether he’ll be able to suit up in week 1, but the missed time has him comfortably behind Rashaad Penny on the depth chart to start the season. Anything beyond 6-8 touches in week one for KW3 would be a bonus.

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 1: vs. NO): Allgeier enters the season 3^rd on the Falcons RB depth chart behind Cordarrelle Patterson and Damien Williams, and the Falcons face a New Orleans defense that ranked 1^st in run defense DVOA and allowed the 2^nd fewest RB points per game last season. There’s no reason to fire him up in the opener.

RB Zamir White, LV (Wk. 1: @LAC): White’s role for the early part of the season Looks to be mostly as a change of pace back on early downs behind Josh Jacobs while Ameer Abdullah handles the passing down work. That’s not a very useful role for fantasy, even against a Chargers’ defense that ranked 30^th in run defense DVOA a season ago.

RB Trestan Ebner, CHI (Wk. 1: vs. SF): Ebner warrants watching in week 1 as a potential waiver pick-up for PPR leagues. There’s been a lot of buzz this offseason about his ability as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, but this week is not the one to try him out in lineups. The 49ers allowed the 9^th-fewest RB receiving yards per game last season and we still don’t know just how big of a role Ebner will play in this offense. Take a wait-and-see approach with him in the early weeks.

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 1: @Ari.): Pacheco has been one of the biggest darlings of training camp. There’s been speculation that he’s going to play a meaningful role in the Chiefs offense after making the team as a 7^th-round draft pick, but you’d be best off practicing patience with him for your lineups. Pacheco looks to work as the change of pace back for both early-down RB Clyde Edwards Helaire and 3^rd down back Jerick McKinnon to start the season. The Cardinals should be significantly worse on defense than the unit that allowed the 7^th-fewest RB points per game last year, but Pacheco’s limited role in a 3-headed backfield makes him a guy to avoid this week.

RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 1: vs. LV): Spiller seems to have gotten over a preseason ankle injury in time for week 1, but he’s fallen behind both Joshua Kelley and Sony Michel for the RB2 job and isn’t likely to have a prominent role in week 1. The Raiders aren’t a good defense – they allowed the 4^th-most RB points per game last season, but Spiller won’t see enough work for that to matter.

RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk. 1: vs. Buf.): The Rams backfield rotation seems a little unsettled still, but I don’t envision a big role for Williams behind Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson to start the season. Williams’ biggest upside comes from his prowess as a receiver. He hauled in 35+ catches in each of the last two seasons at Notre Dame, but he enters an offense that doesn’t really target the backs in the passing game. The Rams have ranked dead last in the NFL in RB target share in each of the last two seasons, and although OC Kevin O’Connell departed to take the Vikings head coaching job, the Rams replaced him with Liam Coen who coached under O’Connell with the Rams in 2020. Coen spent 2021 as the Kentucky offensive coordinator, and the Wildcats’ running backs accounted for less than 10% of the team’s total receptions. Williams is a guy to monitor for later in the season, but he shouldn’t be near your week 1 lineup.

WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 1: @Car.): There’s a good chance that Bell opens the season as the Browns’ WR3, but I don’t expect there to be a lot of fantasy production to go around for the pass catchers with Jacoby Brissett under center. The Browns will likely use a lot of 2-TE and 2-RB looks and probably won’t have 3 WRs on the field as much as most teams. Bell should be rostered in deeper PPR leagues, but he’s not a good option in week 1, especially against a Carolina defense that allowed the 3^rd fewest fantasy points per game to opposing WRs lined up in the slot last season, per SIS.

WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 1: @Ari.): The Chiefs look likely to enter the season with JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Mecole Hardman starting in 3-WR sets. Moore even played behind Justin Watson in the Chiefs' final preseason game. The rookie is going to work himself into a bigger role at some point this season, but he shouldn’t be near your lineup for week 1.

WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 1: vs. SF): Jones makes his NFL debut against a defense that was just in the middle of the pack last year against the pass (15^th in pass defense DVOA), but he joins an offense with a messy WR depth chart after Darnell Mooney. The Bears figure to be run-heavy, with the passing offense running through Mooney and TE Cole Kmet. None of the other Chicago receivers should be in your week 1 lineup. Jones looks to be the WR4 on the depth chart at this point behind Mooney, Equanimeous St. Brown, and Byron Pringle, but that could change as the season moves along. Monitor Jones from afar.

WR Kyle Phillips, TEN (Wk. 1: vs. NYG): Phillips impressed early in camp and seemed to have a real chance to enter the season as the Titans starting slot WR at one point, but with Treylon Burks putting his early camp struggles behind him Phillips seems to be playing behind Robert Woods, Burks, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine on the depth chart. Even if he had earned the WR3 role, only 9 teams spent a lower % of their plays in 11 personnel than the Titans did last year. Their offense runs through Derrick Henry, and they typically have a narrow passing target tree. Phillips doesn’t have much upside in the opener even in a good matchup with the Giants.

TE Cole Turner, WAS (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): I had some hope for Turner to make my sleeper list this week with starting tight end Logan Thomas unlikely to suit up for week 1 and backup John Bates banged up as well, but Bates was able to get in a full practice on Tuesday. He’ll likely be ready to go for the opener, relegating Turner to the bench. Turner posted 62 receptions at 10 TDs at Nevada last season, and the Jaguars ranked 31^st in pass defense DVOA last season. If for some reason Bates winds up missing this game, Turner is an intriguing DFS option that costs the minimum on DraftKings.

TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 1: @Dal.): Otton had some hype early in the offseason when Gronk retired once again, but the Bucs also added Kyle Rudolph in free agency and Otton has failed to beat out Rudolph or returning backup Cam Brate. He’ll open the season as Tampa’s TE3.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 1: @Cin.): Warren’s signing as a UDFA went largely unnoticed in the spring but entering the season he’s the primary backup for Najee Harris. He isn’t a guy you should be plugging into any lineups, but he’s a great stash in deeper leagues in case anything happens to Najee. The Steelers’ backs other than Harris only handled 60 combined touches last year, but they’re likely to run more with Mitch Trubisky at QB, and Harris’ touches were close to maxed out in 2021. Pittsburgh passed at the 2^nd-highest rate in the NFL last season.

WRs Christian Watson & Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 1: @Min.): The Packers said goodbye to one of the best wide receivers in football in the offseason, Davante Adams, along with another regular starter in Marquez Valdes-Scantling. They added rookies Watson and Doubs in the draft to help soften the blow of those departures. Watson has been hampered by preseason injuries but should be ready to go for the opener. Meanwhile, fourth-round pick Doubs has been the star of camp. Allen Lazard is the presumptive WR1 in this offense, but he’s not practicing this week with an ankle injury and could miss Sunday’s game. I know that sets up perfectly for another patented Sammy Watkins week 1 performance, but Watson & Doubs have a chance to play meaningful roles against a Minnesota defense that allowed the most WR fantasy points per game last year. I prefer Doubs to Watson for this week, but both players have an intriguing upside for DFS contests assuming Lazard is out. Doubs costs the minimum on DraftKings. Watson is a bit pricier at $5,100.

WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 1: @Ten.): Robinson’s outlook for week 1 got a little murkier this week when Sterling Shepard announced he expects to be ready for week 1 after suffering a torn Achilles back in December. Wan’Dale looked like a lock to be the team’s starting slot WR to open the year, and I still think Shepard is going to be eased back in. Shepard was the starting slot WR in 2021, but Brian Daboll is a new head coach with a new offensive system, and Wan’Dale is the one who has been practicing with the ones throughout camp and the first regular season depth chart released by the team has him listed as a starter. Assuming Robinson starts, he faces a Titans’ defense that allowed the most fantasy points to receivers lined up in the slot in the league last year, per SIS. I think something like 5-60 is very possible in the rookie’s debut, with upside for more.

TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 1: @NYJ): Likely got lucky this preseason when fellow rookie teammate Charlie Kolar suffered a sports hernia and opened the door for Likely to step into the TE2 role behind Mark Andrews. Andrews is as cemented as the starter as can be, but the Ravens jettisoned their WR1 Marquise Brown in the offseason, leaving not much depth behind Rashod Bateman in the receiver room. James Proche, Devin Duvernay, and Tylan Wallace all failed to establish themselves as the clear third option in the passing game, and it’s possible that Likely has done enough to show he can fill that void. The Ravens are going to get Likely on the field a lot this year, and the season-opening matchup is a great one for tight ends. The Jets ranked dead last in pass defense DVOA last season and allowed the 5^th-most TE points per game. Andrews will be the biggest beneficiary, but Isaiah Likely could see 5-7 targets himself in week 1 if he’s truly that third receiving option. Likely costs just $2,600 in the Draftkings showdown slate for this game.

TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 1: vs. KC): Keep an eye on Zach Ertz’s status for the week 1 matchup if you’re considering McBride for a lineup. Ertz was able to return to the practice field for the first time in a couple of weeks on Wednesday. If he’s able to play, that makes McBride a bad week one option. If Ertz sits, McBride should be in line for a decent number of targets against a Kansas City defense that allowed the 10^th-most fantasy points to in-line tight ends last year. Most of McBride’s snaps at Colorado State were as an in-line tight end. He’s a phenomenal pass catcher, having logged 90 catches in 12 games last season in college. If Ertz sits, I like his chances for 5+ receptions in the opener, and he costs just $1,800 in showdown contests.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you get your season started on the right foot. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.