Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 3 opened with a bit of a dud on Thursday, but man was Sunday fun. We didn’t have nearly the same injury carnage that we saw in week 2, and there were several close games and wild comebacks, not to mention some breakout games by rookies Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins, Brandon Aiyuk, and James Robinson. This week could be another wild one for offenses with 8 out of 15 games having projected point totals above 50. Let’s dive in and see what to expect from the rookies…

Rookies to Start:

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 4: vs. NE): CEH has seen his fantasy fortunes dip a bit since his breakout NFL debut a couple of weeks ago, but he’s still finished as the RB26 and RB12 the last two weeks. That’s hardly anything to be too upset about, and he should be in line for a nice game this week. New England isn’t exactly a pushover of a defense, but they’ve allowed the 10^th-most RB receptions per game and rank just 19^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. The Chiefs are favored by a touchdown, so there should be plenty of opportunities for Edwards-Helaire to carry the ball. He should be a safe top-15 back who will likely break into the top-10 for the week if he gets into the end zone. The Chiefs have an implied total of 30.75, the 2^nd highest of the week.

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 4: @Chi.): Taylor has already been showing us that he can basically carry this offense if he has to, and with another receiver going down with an injury for this team (Michael Pittman Jr.) he may have to. The Colts should look to lean on Taylor this week, and the Bears are just a middling run defense, allowing the 15^th-most RB points per game and ranking 20^th in run defense DVOA. The lack of passing targets for Taylor the last couple weeks has been a little disconcerting, but it’s nothing we didn’t expect coming into the year. I think he’ll get a few more passing targets this week in a game that should be a bit more competitive, and think Taylor will top 15 PPR points Sunday.

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 4: @Cin.): Robinson announced his presence as a fantasy starter with authority last Thursday despite the Jaguars suffering a lopsided loss. He still gave way to Chris Thompson more often than you’d like to see, but he’s clearly the back you want in Jacksonville, and he’s done enough to ensure the job stays his when Ryquell Armstead and Devine Ozigbo get healthy. This week he gets to face a Cincinnati team that has allowed the 5^th-most RB points per game and ranks 21^st in run defense DVOA. The Jaguars will look to involve him early and often, and he should be a safe RB2 in this favorable matchup. I probably would look elsewhere for DFS lineups though with Robinson priced in between CEH and Jonathan Taylor on DraftKings this week.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 4: vs. Cle.): Lamb has quickly proven himself to be a safe WR3 option most weeks, putting up at least 5 catches and 59 yards in each of his 3 games so far. This week he faces a Cleveland defense that has given up the 6^th-most WR points per game despite playing the Ravens and Washington, two teams that don’t put up a ton of WR points. This is a great week for Lamb to get into the end zone for the first time in his young career. Don’t be shy about getting him into your lineups.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 4: vs. Jax.): I actually think Burrow is a borderline QB1 this week. The Bengals have shown that they’re comfortable with the rookie airing it out, and he gets a very beatable matchup with the Jaguars. Jacksonville has allowed Ryan Tannehill and Ryan Fitzpatrick to finish as the QB8 and QB6, respectively in the last two weeks. The Bengals are actually favored to win this game and have an implied point total of 26. The emergence of Tee Higgins to go along with AJ Green and Tyler Boyd makes this an offense that will produce points in plus matchups. Get Burrow in your 2QB lineups, and give him some consideration if you don’t love your starter for this week in a 1-QB league.

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 4: @Was.): Dobbins’ usage has been hard to predict on a weekly basis, but I feel pretty confident that he’ll see a decent amount of work this week. The Ravens are an astounding 13-point favorite, and this will be a spot where everyone on their offense can get right. Washington is a middle of the pack run defense, and I’d expect there will be somewhere around 30 carries divvied up between Dobbins, Mark Ingram, and Gus Edwards. I’d be comfortable with Dobbins in my flex spot this week and would be surprised if he ends up with at least 10 touches.

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 4: vs. Bal.): On the other side of the Ravens – Football Team game, Antonio Gibson could be hard-pressed to put up a solid game. JD McKissic out-snapped Gibson 34-to-26 in a game where Washington played from well behind against Cleveland. The game script should be similar in this game, so we could see more of McKissic again. The Ravens have allowed the 4^th-fewest RB points per game so far this season and allowed the 6^th-fewest in 2019. Volume should keep Gibson on the flex radar this week, but I’d prefer to keep him benched if you can.

RB Josh Kelley, LAC (Wk. 4: @TB): I list Kelley in the borderline section this week, but I’d lean more towards sitting him than playing him this week. Tampa is favored by a touchdown, and with the Bolts playing from behind last week Kelley was out-snapped by Austin Ekeler 56-to-23. Kelley did lose a fumble in that game and it may have played a part in his limited snaps, but it looks like Ekeler will see a bit of a bump in playing time when the Chargers play from behind. Tampa is one of the strongest run defenses in the league, ranking 1^st in run defense DVOA in 2019, and 5^th so far this year. They have allowed 8 receptions per game to opposing backs this season, but just 50 rushing yards per game. It would likely take a touchdown for Kelley to be helpful to your team this week, and the Chargers have one of the lowest implied point totals of the week at 18.25. I’d try and steer clear of Kelley unless you’re in a bind due to injuries.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 4: @Hou.): What a week for Justin Jefferson last Sunday. His monster 7-175-1 performance came seemingly out of nowhere. His yardage total was 62 yards more than the TOTAL number of passing yards Kirk Cousins threw for in week 2, and Jefferson now has accounted for 60% of the Vikings receiving yards in the last 2 games. You’d be crazy to count on Jefferson to repeat what he did last Sunday, but he gets a pretty decent matchup and should be a solid upside WR3 option this week. The Texans have been worse against the run than the pass, but they’ve been poor against both. It is worth noting that Bisi Johnson unexpectedly played only a few snaps on Sunday, so keep your ear to the ground on that if you plan to start Jefferson. I think it’s safe to say Jefferson has fully moved into the WR2 role after what he did last weekend, but it was still strange to see Johnson barely play after being on the field for more than 60% of the offensive snaps each of the first two weeks.

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 4: @Jax.): Higgins had a breakout game in week 3 against the Eagles, finishing with 2 touchdowns and over 20 PPR points. He actually led all Bengals’ receivers in snaps for the game and should continue to play a full-time role after posting such positive results. The Jaguars have struggled to limit opposing passing attacks, ranking dead last in pass-defense DVOA, and Higgins will continue to be heavily involved in the Cincy game plan. 50 yards feels like his floor in this matchup. I would be comfortable firing up Higgins as a flex or WR3 this week.

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 4: @NYJ): Jeudy’s role as the #1 WR in Denver gives him some flex upside, especially in a matchup against a Jets defense that ranks 31^st in pass defense DVOA. Unfortunately, he also has a QB making his first career start under center in Brett Rypien. Rypien doesn’t have a big arm, and I wouldn’t expect Denver to air it out too much in this one. Melvin Gordon and Royce Freeman should see a lot of work, and I expect Rypien’s best friend in the passing game to be tight end Noah Fant. I could see Jeudy finishing with 3-4 catches for 50-60 yards, but anything more than that should be considered a bonus.

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 4: vs. Cin.): Shenault was a bit of a let down in week 3, not exactly having the breakout game that many called for on Thursday. It was especially frustrating to see him playing behind Chris Conley, who seemed to fill the DJ Chark role in the offense. If Chark returns this week, it should make the offense more successful as a whole and help open things up for the rest of the team. Cincinnati’s pass defense is off to a good start in 2020, but they haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of passing attacks. They’re more beatable than the numbers suggest. I’d look for Shenault to see 6 or so targets in this one and be a decent flex option in 12-team formats or deeper.

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 4: @LV): Davis has quickly ascended the Bills’ depth chart and may see an even bigger role this week with John Brown’s status up in the air. Buffalo has surprisingly been pass-happy so far this season, ranking 9^th in pass percentage (They ranked 26^th in 2019). The Raiders are 18^th in pass defense DVOA so far this year but were 31^st a year ago. I think Davis has a good chance to repeat his performance from last week and top 10 PPR points once again if Brown sits. For the season, he has caught every target that has come his way. That’s the kind of performance that gets you more targets.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 4: vs. Phi.): Aiyuk has a bit of a breakout game in week 3, finishing just ahead of Tee Higgins as the WR13 for the week, but he may crash back to earth a bit this week. The 49ers have had the fun of playing two of the worst secondaries in the league in the Jets and Giants in weeks 2 & 3, but this week Aiyuk will probably be squaring off with Darius Slay, who is still one of the better lockdown corners in the league. With Deebo Samuel still sidelined, Aiyuk is the de facto #1 receiver for the 49ers, so he’ll be the one getting the defensive attention from Slay. I’d expect he’ll still see a handful of targets come his way, but I don’t expect another top-15 finish. I wouldn’t be eager to roll Aiyuk out there outside of deep leagues this week.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 4: @TB): Most of the press clippings out of Tampa Bay focus on the offensive weapons on the roster, but their defense has been very underrated going back to the start of last season. They ranked a respectable 13^th in pass defense DVOA in 2019, and have improved to 3^rd so far in 2020. They’ve also allowed the 4^th-fewest QB points per game. Herbert has thrown for over 300 yards in each of his first 2 starts, but I’d be surprised if he makes it 3-for-3. Tampa has held 2 of their first 3 opponents under 200 passing yards. As a 7-point underdog, the Chargers should be throwing the ball a bit, but I’d look at Herbert as a desperation QB2 this week.

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 4: vs. NO): I like the pass-catching skills Swift brings at RB, but Detroit’s backfield is shaping up to look a lot like the New England backfields we used to see a few years back, where you never knew from week-to-week which back was going to get the bulk of the work. Swift barely played last week, and while this week’s matchup looks like one where Detroit will be throwing plenty, I’d be hesitant to trust Swift in your fantasy lineups until we know his usage is a little more predictable. Swift played just 6 offensive snaps in week 3 and has seen his share decline each week so far.

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 4: vs. NYG): Akers’ status for week 4 is still in the air with him not practicing as of Wednesday, but I’d avoid playing him if he is able to play even in what seems like a plus matchup. The Giants have allowed the 10^th-most running back points per game through the first 3 weeks, and the Rams are likely to be playing from ahead as a whopping 12.5-point favorite. Unfortunately for Akers, his time on the sideline has allowed Darrell Henderson to grab the starting job and run with it. Henderson has reached 120 scrimmage yards and a TD in each of the last 2 weeks, and coach McVay has said he’s earned a start in week 4. There’s always a chance in this offense that Akers gets a hot hand and gets some extra run, or gets some garbage-time work, but that’s not something I want to rely on for fantasy production.

RB LaMical Perine, NYJ (Wk. 4: vs. Den.): Frank Gore continues to defy the football gods and play a large offensive role into his late 30s, and Perine can’t even effectively hold off Kalen Ballage for the backup role. Both played a pretty even split of snaps in week 3. The Jets finally get an opponent that is closer to their talent level in week 4, but this game is going to be U-G-L-Y. The Jets rank dead last in the league in both offensive yards and points scored, and Denver has allowed the 7^th-fewest RB points per game. You do not want to roll the dice on a guy splitting backup work in that offense, in that matchup. Aim higher.

RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 4: @Mia.): Chris Carson suffered an injury on Sunday that could keep him sidelined for the next week or two, but that isn’t a good reason for DeeJay Dallas to be on your radar. I’d expect Carlos Hyde to handle the early-down work and Travis Homer to be the 3^rd down back while Carson is out, and would only expect Dallas to mix in occasionally. Seattle is likely to steamroll the Dolphins in this game, so there could be some garbage time opportunity for the rookie against a bad run defense, but it’s hard to count on him getting more than a handful of touches.

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 4: vs. Ind.): Mooney has gotten off to a surprising start this season, already taking over the number 2 receiver role in the offense. I don’t think this is the week to trot him out there in fantasy lineups though. The Colts rank first in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 5^th-fewest WR points per game so far. We also haven’t seen how this offense will function with Nick Foles installed as the starting QB. I’d keep Mooney sidelined for now in all formats.

WR Antonio Gandy-Golden, WAS (Wk. 4: vs. Bal.): Washington is banged up at wide receiver with Dontrelle Inman and Steven Sims both appearing to be on the wrong side of questionable in this game. That should mean a sizable snap count for Gandy-Golden, but I wouldn’t count on him cashing in on that opportunity against the Ravens. Baltimore’s secondary will be eager to show that their Monday night meltdown against Kansas City was an aberration, and Gandy-Golden doesn’t have Pat Mahomes throwing him the ball. Baltimore’s overall pass defense numbers don’t look great so far this year, but they’re skewed by what happened on Monday night. They ranked 4^th in pass defense DVOA in 2019. Terry McLaurin is the only Washington receiver who should be considered this week.

WRs Henry Ruggs & Bryan Edwards, LV (Wk. 4: vs. Buf.): Both Ruggs and Edwards are not practicing as of Thursday, and the Bills boast one of the better secondaries in the league. Buffalo hasn’t been quite as sharp against the pass so far this year as they were a year ago, ranking 15^th in pass defense DVOA so far, but Vegas doesn’t funnel the ball to their receivers even when they’re healthy. Steer clear of both rookies here this week.

WR Van Jefferson, LAR (Wk. 4: vs. NYG): Jefferson’s preseason hype has faded fast in the regular season. Each week this season Jefferson has seen his snap share drop and Josh Reynolds’ share increase. Reynolds played 90% of the offensive snaps in week 3 to just 12% for Jefferson. It’s hard to say how much the game flow had to do with that since the Rams were in a deep hole for much of the game, but I know that after a week like that Jefferson isn’t a guy that I want to target in my fantasy lineups. The Giants are a very burnable pass defense, but you can’t count on Van to have a big opportunity to take advantage.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 4: @LV): Moss looks likely to play this week, and it couldn’t have come at a better time for the rookie. The Raiders have allowed more running back points per game than any other defense and were just shredded by plodder Sony Michel a week ago. I’d expect Moss to return to his goal line and short-yardage role this week and think he has a decent chance to turn it into a better than expected game. A top-25 finish wouldn’t be shocking.

RB AJ Dillon, GB (Wk. 4: vs. Atl.): This is more of a hunch than anything, but this game could go sideways on the Falcons. The Packers are favored by a touchdown and have a ridiculous implied total of 32.5 points, and Atlanta could be without Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, and Russell Gage. All 3 are questionable for Monday. The extra day may give them a chance to get right, but we’ve seen the Falcons’ defense hasn’t really slowed anyone down. If the offense is hampered at all, this could be a blowout, and I think we could see a decent amount of Dillon in garbage time. The Falcons are a middling run defense at 17^th in run defense DVOA on the year, so an extended run for Dillon could result in a nice game. I don’t know what format I’d suggest playing him this week – maybe a single-game DFS tournament, but I do like his chances at a solid game.

WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 4: @NYJ): Hamler has been targeted 12 times in the last 2 games, and despite having untested Brett Rypien at QB, he still gets to play the Jets’ barely there secondary. I don’t expect a ton of passing volume from the Broncos, but given Hamler’s speed and playmaking ability, I think he has a better shot at breaking a long touchdown than teammate Jerry Jeudy. He’s a shoot-the-moon option in DFS tournaments in this one.

WR John Hightower, PHI (Wk. 4: @SF): Hightower’s outlook for this week took a bit of a hit on Thursday as he missed practice with an injury, but if he’s able to play this week it seems very likely he will be Philly’s number 2 receiver behind Greg Ward. The 49ers are a stingy pass defense but are still without Richard Sherman. If Hightower plays, he’s probably only an option in the deepest of leagues, but he could be enticing as a minimum priced option if you’re playing in a showdown tournament for the Sunday night game. The Eagles will have to throw the ball to somebody, and with so many injuries Hightower might only be behind Zach Ertz, Miles Sanders, and Greg Ward in the target pecking order in a game where they are a 7-point underdog.

WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 4: vs. LAC): Johnson saw his first significant game action of the season in week 3 getting on the field for 21 offensive snaps, and the Bucs may be without two of Tom Brady’s favorite targets this week in Chris Godwin and Scotty Miller. Johnson would undoubtedly slide into 3-WR sets along with Mike Evans and Justin Watson if both Godwin and Miller are out, and the Chargers allow the 8^th-most WR points per game. Johnson wasn’t targeted in last week’s game (outside of one that was negated by a penalty), but Brady threw just 4 pass attempts in the last 20 minutes of game time, when Johnson saw most of his playing time. I’d expect him to record his first few catches of the season this week if Godwin and Miller both sit. He was a wildly productive player in college, so he’s a player to monitor this week for those of you in dynasty leagues.

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 4: @Dal.): Bryant has seen his snap % increase every single game, and while he’s only been catching one ball per week, that’s not much less than Austin Hooper is seeing. The Cowboys have been vulnerable to tight ends, allowing the 8^th-most points to the position this year and the 3^rd most last year. Bryant isn’t a guy you should consider for season-long leagues, but he’s a sneaky TD dart throw if you’re punting on tight end in DFS.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions of the week involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you want to yell at me about anything written above or have any questions for me feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

0 Wins at MetLife Stadium

Well, it’s 2020 and for football fans in the vicinity of New York City, there’s still no victories to speak of. In fact, the last team to win a home game at Metlife stadium is….the New York Guardians of the currently defunct XFL league – though that may return in 2022. If the Giants and Jets can’t get their shit together, it might be the Guardians who manage the next home victory at MetLife Stadium. As predicted, between the Jets and Giants, Frank Gore leads the way in rushing yards with a whopping 174 over 4 games. The only other rushers over 100 yards on the season are both of the team’s starting QBs. Combined, the teams only have 5 passing and 3 rushing TDs. That’s an average of one offensive TD, per team, per game. Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones have combined for 9 INTs, so that’s slightly more than one per game. It’s going to be a rough 2020 in NYC.

28+ Points in the First Half

The Cleveland Browns achieved something yesterday in Dallas that they haven’t done since 1991. They scored at least 28 points in the first half. Now, this isn’t a minor achievement to make fun of, but it is fun to point out that only 4 of the Browns who played in the game are 30 or older and were alive to see the last time they reached that milestone. This year’s Browns, however, seem to be a force to be reckoned with. After getting trounced in Week 1 by the Ravens, they have averaged 39 points per game, albeit against some weaker competition. But hey, you can only play the team that is on the opposite sideline. This year, the Browns are getting the job done on the ground. They lead the league in rushing yards and yards per attempt and have the 2^nd most rushing attempts in the league. The Browns are averaging over 200 rushing yards per game and are also 2^nd in the league with 8 rushing scores. Nick Chubb heading to the IR will hurt them, but in true next man up mentality, D’Ernest Johnson managed 95 yards on only 13 carries Sunday.

1,690 Passing Yards

Dak Prescott, mostly by necessity of his team allowing 146 points through 4 games, has aired the ball out like nobody ever before. His 1,690 passing yards through 4 games is the most in NFL history, and he’s also the first player to throw for 450+ yards in three straight games. Sunday’s performance brings him ahead of Russell Wilson as the #1 fantasy player this season. His 31.3 point per game average and ADP of 48 means that he’s likely on a lot of teams that are doing quite well this season. I will freely admit that I thought he was overhyped going into the season, but I was definitely wrong. He has to throw the ball to someone, and he has gotten 3 of his WRs in the top 30 for fantasy points on the season. If you just go by yardage, those three guys, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup are all in the top 18.

183 Receiving Yards

Your Week 4 receiving yards leader through Sunday is not a wide receiver, though he sometimes pretends to be one. George Kittle caught all 15 of his targets for 183 yards, a TD, and even tacked on an 8-yard rush for good measure. The 49ers are stumbling without solid QB play and couldn’t manage very much against the previously winless Philadelphia Eagles. Elsewhere in the strange receiving fantasy stats, 5 players caught 2 TDs each and none of them went over 100 receiving yards. Only Odell Beckham Jr managed to go over 100 yards from scrimmage, courtesy of his third TD, a 50-yard run on a 4^th quarter end-around. Meanwhile, only 4 players topped the 100 rushing yard mark, and 3 of them found the end zone twice. Way to let the rest of the group down, Ronald Jones.

18 Fantasy Points

Finally, we have a look at the D/ST spot for the first time this year. This was a bad week for them, as only 2 teams cracked double digits. The Eagles scored a TD and only gave up 20 points on their way to an impressive 18-point performance. Meanwhile, the Browns – currently a turnover machine with 10 on the season, could only manage 5 points from 3 turnovers and 3 sacks against the Cowboys. The early season leaders at the D/ST position are the Colts (52), Ravens (43), and Buccaneers (37). All still have the ability to just be a crapshoot on a weekly basis. The Colts are in their position courtesy of last week’s 26-point performance, the Bucs put up a 0 in week 1 and the Ravens have only 2 INTs and 9 sacks on the season. Coming up they play Cincy and Philly, so that’s a couple of good matchups to ride with until they hit their bye in Week 7.