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The fantasy playoffs are nearly upon us, and the fantasy gods have granted us one week of no byes before they start (next week, the Titans and Browns are off). If you haven't clinched yet, then your playoffs basically start now, so take our advice on who to pick up on the waiver wire and then use our rankings to set your lineups later this week. This is Thanksgiving week, so make sure you check all your lineups on Wednesday night before heading off to the bar, the first game starts at 11:30am CST! The Vikings, Lions, Redskins, Cowboys, Steelers and Colts all play on turkey day.

This week, aside from keeping up with injuries, keep an eye on LeSean McCoy's status, he may be a sit if you're bold enough. Latavius Murray is worthy of a sit if you have other options - he's been splitting way too many carries for my comfort. Finally, look to get DeVante Parker and Mike Wallace in the lineup against bad defenses. Good Luck!

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 11 was yet another nightmare week for injuries. Season-ending injuries (or at least potentially season-ending) were suffered by Jay Cutler, Gio Bernard, Zach Miller, Cody Kessler, and CJ Prosise, while less severe injuries befell AJ Green, Darren Sproles, Ryan Mathews, Stefon Diggs, Andrew Luck, Mark Ingram and Robert Woods. It's likely creating some messes for your fantasy lineups, but it also is creating opportunity for several members of this year's rookie crop. Your decisions this week are likely pretty important with just 2 regular season fantasy games left in most leagues. Before I dive in to the rookie matchups, I wanted to put out a quick reminder: The players below are listed in the order I would want to play them within each position level. There are several comparable players listed as 'Borderline' this week, so I wanted to make sure to clarify that in this all-important week. With that out of the way, let's take a look at the week 12 slate:

Rookies to Start:

QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 12: vs. Was.): It's getting hard to not trust Dak at this point. He's had the safest floor of anyone not named Brees or Brady with 17+ fantasy points in 9 straight (all point totals are in ESPN standard scoring). He's been taking his production to another level over the past month. He's been the QB5, QB7, QB10, and QB4 in the 4 games since the Cowboys' bye. Washington isn't a defense to be afraid of. They rank in the middle of the pack in points allowed to opposing QBs and 17th in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA stat, which measures efficiency. Prescott should once again be a top-10 option.

RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 12: vs. Was.): Like Prescott, Zeke has proven to have a rock-solid floor, and he's shown an even higher ceiling than his QB. He's gotten to the point where he is a ‘set it & forget it’ option at running back each week. Elliott leads the NFL in rushing yards and the Washington ranks 29th in run defense DVOA. Zeke is a strong RB1 option once again.

RB Jordan Howard, CHI (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): Howard should see a ton of volume this week with Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery both out, and he is averaging over 5 yards per carry on the season. His efficiency is likely to suffer this week as the Titans stack the box and pay no mind to Matt Barkley. Tennessee allows the 9th-fewest RB points per game, so the sledding may be tough, but volume should be enough to get Howard to RB2 status.

WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 12: vs. LA): A home game for New Orleans means you should get all of your Saints pass catchers into the lineup. That didn't apply for Thomas vs. Denver, but it should apply here. The Rams' overall numbers vs. WRs have been decent, but they've been vulnerable on the road, allowing over 30 WR points in 3 of their 5 road games. New Orleans should have a great chance to make it 4 of 6. Thomas should be a safe WR3 this week.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. GB): The recent implosion of the Green Bay defense makes Wentz tempting, but he’s been pretty hard to trust thanks to his recent track record. The Packers have allowed over 280 passing yards in each of their past 4 games, and 12 TD passes in that stretch, but Wentz has just 4 TDs and 8 turnovers in his past 6 games. He’s also averaged less than 5 yards per attempt in 3 of his last 5. There’s potential for a decent game here, but I view Wentz as more of a QB2 streamer this week. It would be a pretty big leap of faith to trust him as a QB1 this week despite the great matchup.

RB Devontae Booker, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. KC): Booker is flex-worthy this week despite struggling in his last 2 games before the Broncos’ bye. He did play 71% of the offensive snaps in week 10 and handled a robust 26 touches. I’d expect him to still be operating as Denver’s clear lead back this week, and the Chiefs allow the 8th-most yards per carry to opposing backs and rank 21^st in run defense DVOA. The only thing stopping me from listing him as a guy to start is his recent inefficient play.

RB Rob Kelley, WAS (Wk. 12: @Dal.): I love the way Kelley is playing lately, and he certainly has a vice-grip on the starting RB job in Washington after his impressive 31-point performance Sunday night, but the matchup this week is a tough one. Kelley isn’t an explosive runner. He gets by on run volume alone and is a non-factor in the passing game. Dallas’s ball control offense has limited opposing running backs to just 16.4 attempts per game (fewest allowed in the league), and only 2 teams have had more than 18 attempts against them. The volume will be a bit thin this week for ‘Fat Rob’ Kelley. The offense is still good enough to set him up for a short TD or 2, but he will likely be a disappointment if he doesn’t find the end zone.

RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. GB): The Eagles’ backfield is pretty banged up coming out of week 11, and that could make Smallwood the starter this week by default. Early reports have made it sound like Ryan Mathews is unlikely to play with an ankle injury, and Darren Sproles is likely to play through a rib injury. If that situation holds, I still like Smallwood as a streamer in deeper leagues. He would see plenty of early down work on a team that has the 8th-highest percentage of run plays called. Green Bay’s entire defense has been crumbling lately and has allowed 22, 27, 28, and 32 RB points in their past 4 games. They also lost starting inside linebacker Blake Martinez to injury Sunday night. I’d move Wendell to the ‘Start’ section if both Sproles & Mathews are out, and closer to ‘Sit’ if both play, but as things stand, he should be a fine streaming option in leagues with 12+ teams.

WR Tyler Boyd, CIN (Wk. 12: @Bal.): At the very least, Boyd is worth a pickup in just about all leagues. His role moving forward is still a little up in the air since Brandon LaFell seems like a more natural fit for the AJ Green role, but Boyd did have his best game of the year last week after Green went down. Also, LaFell missed practice on Wednesday and his status is in doubt for this week. I’d expect Cincy to lean on Jeremy Hill and the running game a bit more, but Boyd could fill some of the short passing game void left by the Gio Bernard injury. The Ravens rank 21^st in pass defense DVOA on short passes, which is an area where Boyd has performed well. He should be a safe WR3 in PPR formats, and will be a little less safe in standard leagues.

WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (Wk. 12: @Cle.): Shep has found the end zone in 3 straight games, has seen 7+ targets in 8 of the last 9 (6 targets in the other game), and faces the hapless Browns this week. The Browns clock in at 30^th in pass defense DVOA. It’s hard to fully trust Shepard as a locked-in starter until his yardage output increases. He’s been too touchdown dependent. Still, the number of targets he sees and the plus matchup will make him a borderline WR3 again.

WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 12: @Chi.): Sharpe has bounced back nicely from his early season woes with 58+ yards in 4 of his past 5 games, and 68 yards and a TD in each of the past 2. The Bears have allowed the 3rd-most wide receiver points per game and have allowed 150+ yards to the position in 8 of 10 games as well as 11 total TDs. Sharpe is on the WR 3/4 radar this week.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Jared Goff, LA (Wk. 12: @NO): I’d avoid Goff even in 2QB leagues despite what appears to be a good matchup in the Superdome. The matchup might not be quite as tempting as you’d expect. The Saints do rank a pretty poor 25^th in pass defense DVOA, but have allowed just 13.8 fantasy points per game in their past 4 contests (would be tied for 5th-fewest if it was their season average). Goff will be playing with training wheels on during his first few starts. He averaged just 4.3 yards per attempt last week, and while the game script should lead the Rams to be more pass-heavy, Jeff Fisher doesn’t always follow game script.

RB Kenneth Dixon, BAL (Wk. 12: vs. Cin.): Dixon remains a big part of the mix in the Ravens’ backfield as the snaps were almost an even split between he and Terrance West last Sunday. The Ravens did play much of that game from behind, however, and Dixon has been utilized much more on passing downs than in running situations. I would expect them to be in better shape on the scoreboard against the AJ Green-less Bengals. West gets the goal line carries, so there isn’t much TD upside for Dixon, and without it he’s going to be hard to trust this week. He’s had just one usable week thus far, and I don’t expect this to be number 2.

RBs DeAndre Washington & Jalen Richard, OAK (Wk. 12: vs. Car.): It was nice to see Richard find the end zone in week 11. Since DeAndre played just 4 snaps, it appears that there is some clarity in the Raiders' number 2 running back role. We've been down this road before, however. The Raiders have had no problem swapping the roles of these two without warning before, and there is no guarantee they won't do it this time. In any case, neither Washington nor Richard is a good option in a tough matchup with the Panthers, even if Richard remains the clear number 2 back.

RB Dwayne Washington, DET (Wk. 12: vs. Min.): Washington failed to produce against the lackluster Jaguars' run defense, putting up just 6 yards on 13 carries. The Vikings aren't any better at limiting fantasy points to opposing running backs than the Jags, but they rank 12th in run defense DVOA while Jacksonville ranks 23rd. You can't count on Dwayne to produce this week.

WR Tyreek Hill, KC (Wk. 12: @Den.): Hill’s volume should be decent once again if Maclin is unable to play for the 3^rd straight week, but the Broncos should be able to limit all of KC’s wide receivers. Denver ranks 1^st in overall pass defense DVOA, and also 1^st in pass defense DVOA on short throws, which are a big part of Hill’s game. He’s best left sidelined this week.

WR Robby Anderson, NYJ (Wk. 12: vs. NE): Anderson does have a little upside this week as he’s basically been operating as the Jets’ WR2, but he has yet to top 7 fantasy points in a game, has seen his QB change on an almost weekly basis, and faces the defense that allows the 7th-fewest WR points per game. He’s safe for 3-6 points, but not much more.

WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. SD): At this point you can’t trust Fuller until he proves he’s operating at full strength. He’s a speed merchant, so his value is being sapped drastically by his leg injury. He just put up a 1-17 line in a plus matchup last week. I would keep him firmly benched until he starts producing again.

WR Braxton Miller, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. SD): Miller played more snaps than Fuller last Monday, but he produced just 5 catches for 25 yards. He did find the end zone for the first time in his young career, but his snap share will drop as Fuller gets healthier and you can’t count on a weekly TD from anyone in this offense.

TE Austin Hooper, ATL (Wk. 12: vs. Ari.): With Jacob Tamme on IR, Hooper should take over as the starting tight end for the rest of the season. Unfortunately, he has a brutal matchup this week. The Cardinals haven't allowed a tight end TD all season, and they allow just 2.9 catches per game to the position. Only two teams have gained more than 50 yards with their TEs against Arizona. Some notable TE stat lines against them: Martellus Bennett 3-14, Jimmy Graham 5-53, Greg Olsen 1-11, and Kyle Rudolph 2-12. I find it hard to believe that Hooper will be the tight end to buck that trend.

TE Hunter Henry, SD (Wk. 12: @Hou.): Henry should be getting healthier and did score a touchdown heading into the bye week, but Antonio Gates is back in the saddle as the Chargers top TE, and the Texans allow the 5th-fewest TE points in the league. You can't trust Henry this week.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Paul Perkins, NYG (Wk. 12: @Cle.): The Giants are a touchdown favorite on the road, so Perkins might see some extra work if the G-Men get out in front. The Browns rank just 30^th in run defense DVOA. There is a good amount of risk here after Perkins saw just 6 touches last weekend, but he has the upside to have a decent flex-worthy week.

RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 12: @Chi.): This is mostly a gut call with Henry. He was shelved last week as the Titans were playing catch up right out of the gate after falling into a 21-0 hole, but this week they’re 5-point road favorites in Chicago. The Bears are going to be starting Matt Barkley at QB, so falling way behind in this one seems highly unlikely. I expect the Titans to win easily, and for Henry to see a good amount of work once they get ahead. The Bears have been fairly solid against the run, allowing the 4^th fewest RB points per game, but they’ll be missing their leading tackler (Jerrell Freeman) due to a PED suspension. If the Titans win big like I think they can, Henry has a good chance to return RB2 value. He might be worth a roll of the dice in DFS tournaments.

RB Troymaine Pope, SEA (Wk. 12: @TB): Pope is just a stash for really deep leagues at this point as he battles through a high ankle sprain suffered last week. The Seahawks liked Pope enough to cut C-Mike loose to promote him from the practice squad, and the coaching staff has heaped praise on him. He hasn’t been productive yet, but he could have big value if anything happens to Thomas Rawls down the stretch. Keep an eye on his health situation.

WR Corey Coleman, CLE (Wk. 12: vs. NYG): Coleman probably has too prominent a role on his team to be called a ‘Sleeper,’ but I didn’t feel like he fit into the ‘Borderline’ or ‘Sit’ sections either. He hasn’t been very productive since returning from his broken hand, but if he keeps seeing 12 targets like he did last Sunday, he’s bound for a breakout game at some point. The Giants rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to WR1s, which would be Terrelle Pryor for Cleveland, so there could be some opportunity for Coleman despite the tough matchup. If you want to roll the dice on him in a deeper league, there’s enough of a floor that he won’t kill you if he doesn’t go off.

WR Malcolm Mitchell, NE (Wk. 12: NYJ): This will undoubtedly feel like you’re chasing last week’s points after Mitchell’s 4-98-1 breakout game last week, but he’ll have big upside again if Chris Hogan sits once more. Hogan and Gronk are practicing Wednesday, so they might be able to play, but Brady did heap praise on the youngster and he likely earned himself more snaps going forward. The Jets rank 30^th in pass defense DVOA, and have allowed the 10th-most WR points per game, so Mitchell could be a WR3 if Hogan doesn’t suit up.

That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully, it helps with the tough lineup decisions this week. Keep a close eye on the injury report as the week wears on to make sure you don't start anyone who's not playing or anyone who's playing time depended on the starter being out. Also, if you're waiting on injury updates for Sunday, make sure to not use players in Thursday's games in flex spots if you can help it. It can allow for more flexibility with fill-ins if anyone ends up out at the last minute. If you have any specific questions, or just want to yell at me about anything included above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game. 

We've reached the final week before the fantasy playoffs. If you are desperately looking for a win to make it in or if you're already in and just looking ahead to your playoff matchups or if you are eliminated and just want to play spoiler then I'm here to help you out. TWO teams on bye this week; Browns and Titans. Good Luck!

Note: all waiver picks listed here will have only been owned in 50% or less of Yahoo! leagues at the time of publication.

Quarterback

Colin Kaepernick (SF) - 24% owned - Kaepernick has been on a tear lately averaging just over 25 fantasy points per game over his last four which is good for 7th best for all QBs in standard scoring during that stretch.  There shouldn't be any slowing down for him this week as he draws a depleted Bears defense.

Honorable mention: Alex Smith (KC) - 25% owned

Running Back

Kenneth Dixon (BAL) - 29% owned - It looks as though Dixon has finally surpassed Terrance West in the Ravens backfield as he out-snapped West for the first time this season.  This will most likely be a timeshare situation next week, but if Dixon plays well or if West falters then we should see Dixon take a larger role going forward.

Bilal Powell (NYJ) - 42% owned - Powell has been getting consistent work lately and he has averaged almost 10 fantasy points per game over his last four starts. If you're in a pinch for a running back you can look this way as the Jets play against a weak Colts team giving up the 10th most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

Honorable mention: Adrian Peterson (MIN) - 43% owned

Wide Receiver

Tyreek Hill (KC) - 37% owned - Hill made a name for himself on Sunday night after catching 9 of 10 targets for 52 yards and a touchdown, rushing for another touchdown and returning a free kick after a safety for a third score. If he can put up this fantasy production against the Broncos then he shouldn't have any issues this week in a great matchup with the Falcons.

Quincy Enunwa (NYJ) - 28% owned - Enunwa looked to be falling out of fantasy relevance the past few weeks but he had a resurgence against the Patriots catching 5 of 5 targets for 109 yards and a touchdown. He has two great matchups coming back to back, first against the Colts and then against 49ers.

Honorable mention: Tyler Boyd (CIN) - 50% owned

Tight End

Vance McDonald (SF) - 10% owned - Rolling with McDonald for the second straight week as he continues to put up numbers with Kaepernick under center. He is the number eight tight end in standard scoring over the past four weeks and has consistently been getting 6 or 7 targets a game.

Honorable mention: C.J. Fiedorowicz (HOU) - 35% owned

Defense/Special Teams

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB) - 5% owned - Not many great streaming options available for this week, but the Bucs have  the second highest fantasy scoring defense over the past four games. They have been getting good pressure and sacks on opposing quarterbacks in this stretch so expect that to continue against Rivers this week.

This week at drinkfive we take a look at expectations versus reality. Specifically, we will take a look at the top 10 ADP players for each position and where they sit after 12 weeks of the NFL season. We’ll also check out the guys who made it into the top 10 and weren’t drafted there. We like to check in with this every year so that you can get an idea of which way positions are trending over a larger time scale. We also like to know how volatile a position is, which can certainly influence whether or not you decide to spend a high draft pick on someone.

Quarterbacks

Starting at the top of the QB chart, we see right away that Cam Newton is only the 15^th best QB this season. He’s not so bad that you have benched him, which may be worse, considering there’s guys who sit in the top 10 that are generally free agents. Here’s our list of the guys in question:

The QB position, as a whole, is not nearly as consistent as you would assume. Only 4 of the top 10 ADP players are actually in the top 10. They don’t fall off, however, like other positions. We do see that the lowest current rank is 22, Carson Palmer, who had an ADP of 7 – not someone you were betting the house on. Cam Newton or Russell Wilson are the losers of the draft at the QB position this season, and they’re still playing and have just been mild disappointments.

As usual, going with some of the more tried and true names like Rodgers, Brees and Brady has worked out. Tom Brady may have the 22^nd most points overall, but since he missed 4 games, he is averaging the 3^rd most points on average for QB’s, which is perfectly acceptable.

The best value at the position is found in the group of players that were drafted from 12-21. In this group, 6 of them are in the top 10. Overall ADP starts at 100 for Carr, through 152 for Prescott. This means that late in the draft you had plenty of chances to grab a guy, or even take a flier, on someone who would wind up in the top 10. Even with Brady’s average numbers taken into account, it’s still almost never worth drafting a QB early – something we spout all the time. The numbers agree!

Running Backs

The RB position is going to be more risky, just by the nature of the position. Players are more likely to be injured when compared to almost any position, and they’re also more likely to be replaced for ineffective play. Running backs also have a short period of time where they are at their peak (Frank Gore not included), so carrying a performance over year to year can be sketchy. Here’s the way the RBs shake out:

As you can see, unlike the QB position, we have guys who are just gone for the season. This can be both good and bad – good because you replace them and move on with another player (possibly a handcuff), but bad because it’s a wasted early round pick. It is reassuring to see that of the players that did stay healthy, you’re only really burned by taking Todd Gurley. This year, RBs at the top have been very consistent – 5 of the 7 top drafted RBs that are still playing are in the top 10, with Lamar Miller just outside at 13.

It’s a little more difficult to nail down a sweet spot to be drafting RBs. Having a top guy is probably more important than it has been in past years, if only because they’re doing so well this season. With only a 40% failure rate (face it, Todd Gurley is a failure as a #1 pick), taking a risk on a top 10 RB was worth it this season. Only picking up guys in later rounds would not be advisable, since only 2 RBs outside of the top 20 ADP are now top 10 players.

Wide Receivers

Wide Receivers are the players that Dave and I are always going on and on about in preseason podcasts. We frequently recommend taking several at the top of the draft, if only because they tend to be less prone to injury than the other fantasy positions, and because they generally have a better chance to be consistent. Let’s see how we did this year:

While perhaps not the absolute model of consistency, 6 of the 10 WRs that were drafted in the top 10 are still in the top 10 of points. Dez Bryant was injured for many games and is currently 12^th in points per game. Really, Deandre Hopkins is the only player drafted in the top 10 that didn’t deserve to start on your team this season. This is why we stress drafting WR’s early.

If you had drafted 2 or 3 WRs to start your draft, you likely wound up with at least two guys in the top 10, and chances are they are still in the top 10. Again, we see that no players have been lost to season ending injury, though A.J. Green may be. Rounding out our top 10 point scorers are two guys that basically came out of nowhere – Adams and Pryor were so low that they went undrafted in most leagues. Michael Thomas was a semi-popular rookie flier, but he still wasn’t picked until the end of most drafts.

With these results, we will be confidently recommending drafting a bunch of WR’s high again next year. Obviously, they won’t all hit, but the chances of you having your high draft picks making a difference on your team late in the year is far higher if you load up on early round wide receivers.

Tight Ends

This is perhaps the position with the most volatility and is the hardest to predict, solely because there are only about 5 reliable tight ends in the league at any given time. There’s only a couple of guys who you wouldn’t consider replacing for a streaming option every week – Gronk, Walker, Olson, Reed, Graham and Kelce. Let’s see where they fall in our chart:

What we see is that about half of the players drafted in the top 10 actually landed there. The other half, aside from Coby Fleener, are barely worth rostering on a weekly basis (streaming options only). This is middle of the road when compared to other positions, not too great, but not bad either. All of the top 6 players drafted are in the top 11 of scoring. Gronk’s spot looks worse than it is – he got all of his points in only 5 games, so hopefully you had someone else in the other times.

Similar to other positions, TEs are not as injury prone as a RB, so taking the top of the draft class isn’t a huge risk. Overall, this has been a down year for TEs, with the high scorer topping out at only 102. We’re unlikely to have anyone reach the 180+ territory to end the season. I would wager that the average total score for the top 10 finishers this season will be far below the results of the past two years.

What can we learn from this? Well, again, the sweet spot for drafting TEs seems to only lie at the very top of their list. If you are not getting good value on someone during the draft, you will likely need to take a later round flier (again, those are all over) and pay attention to streaming options on a weekly basis.