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For months in the offseason, we as fantasy football team managers think about who we may pick up in next year’s drafts, which sleeper picks could come through to lead someone to a championship and what lingering injury concerns could come back during a season to haunt a player. Well, we’re here now – just a couple weeks shy of the fantasy playoffs (for most of us), and the players that you snipe from the waiver wire in the coming weeks may just put you down in the annals of fantasy history as a league champion.

Guys who should already be owned: CJ Prosise (SEA – 37%), Robert Kelley (WAS – 48%), Sammy Watkins (BUF – 38%), Jamison Crowder (WAS – 66%), Rishard Matthews (TEN – 55%), Eric Ebron (DET – 58%), Julius Thomas (JAX – 58%)

Note: all waiver picks listed here will have only been owned in 35% or less of Yahoo! leagues at the time of publication.

Week 11 Waiver Wire Quarterback (QB) Pickups:

Joe Flacco (BAL) – 31% owned – Dallas has not been great against the pass this year (20^th as of Week 11), and have let in 15 touchdowns and 263 yards per game over the course of the season. Flacco has been up and down this year but is just coming off a great game against the Browns (31/40, 296 passing yards, 3 TDs). Play at your own risk, but upside for Flacco is 20+, easy.

Honorable mention: Alex Smith (KC – 25%) – Terrible outing last week but should have some success against Tampa Bay at home

Week 11 Waiver Wire Running Back (RB) Pickups:

James Starks (GB) – 29% owned – Starks has just come back from injury to a strange backfield and it looks like he’ll be taking over for the time being. Going up against a Redskins’ defense that allows 225 rushing yards per game and 13 TDs so far this year, Starks is a plus play for this week and going forward.

Kenneth Dixon (BAL) – 20% owned – Dixon is quickly becoming the passing down back on the Ravens, and was able to put up 80 all-purpose yards on 6 rushes and 5 receptions in week 10. Trending up, Dixon should continue to split time with Terrance West, but West has an awful average YPC over the past few weeks (2.73 over 4 games) so Dixon may find his way to starting before the year’s end.

Honorable mentions: Jeremy Langford (CHI – 26%), Kapri Bibbs (TB – 29%)

Week 11 Waiver Wire Wide Receiver (WR) Pickups:

Cameron Meredith (CHI) – 34% owned – Oh, Chicago Bears. With Alshon Jeffery suspended for 4 games the Bears don’t really have a go-to receiver. Cameron Meredith excelled for a short time earlier this year with Brian Hoyer at quarterback and is still developing chemistry with Cutler. A risk, but someone has to step up in Chicago!

Eli Rogers (PIT) – 11% owned – Rogers had some great plays earlier this season but was lost in the shuffle and in jury issues that have affect the Steelers over the past several weeks. He has now been involved in the game plan once more, however, with 15 targets over the past 2 weeks for 20+ points in standard scoring leagues. With Coates and Wheaton still nursing injuries, Rogers should be a staple of the offense and a good matchup dependent flex play. Week 11 is Cleveland. Start him up!

Honorable mentions: Kendall Wright (TEN – 13% owned), Tyreek Hill (KC – 17% owned)

Week 11 Waiver Wire Tight End (TE) Pickups:

Vernon Davis (WAS) – 6% owned – Jordan Reed is the #1 guy in Washington, but Vernon Davis has been picking up steam lately, catching 14 passes over the last 3 games for a total of 238 yards. The Packers are giving up the 7^th most points to the tight end position.

Honorable mention: Ladarius Green (PIT – 10% owned)

Defenses to target for Week 11:

Miami (@LA), Pittsburgh (@CLE), Detroit (vs. JAX)

Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking game scores, spreads and over/unders? Let me be that football wizard who has seen the prophecies of victory and has the ability to put your wagering soul at ease. In this column, I'll go over each match up and point out why I'm leaning a certain direction as well as predicting the point total. I will also tell you who I'd pick when it comes to point spreads and over/unders.

WEEK 11 PICKS:

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 34 @ CAROLINA PANTHERS 31 - I believe this game will be decided by a field goal with the underdog pulling out a road victory. Even though New Orleans' defense is flimsy, I just can't trust what the Panthers are selling me on a weekly basis. And how can you not trust Drew Brees? Division games come down to big plays and I think the Saints have more in the bank than Cam Newton and friends. So I'd take New Orleans and the points, go low on the confidence points and take the over.

TENNESSEE TITANS 33 @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 27 - This game could easily have more points scored in it. Both the starting QBs have been putting up excellent fantasy numbers and obviously Murray and Gore owners are not allowed to complain. The Titans' stronger run/pass attack, combined with a defense much more capable than Indy's, leaves a 'close, but not close enough', defeat for the home team. Take the Titans and the points, think low with confidence points and take the over, but don't go crazy with it.

BUFFALO BILLS 27 @ CINCINNATI BENGALS 31 - The Bengals will have a rebound game after their close loss against the Giants in week 10. They have all the pieces on both side of the ball to get the job done, yet lack consistency. Buffalo has the makings of a really good football team if they can get healthy. I like both defenses to keep it under control while the offense boxes the clown enough to combine for fifty-plus.  The Bengals and the spread, low to mid confidence points and definitely take the over.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS 37 @ CLEVELAND BROWNS 17 - The Steelers are angry and probably won't lose another consecutive game, especially since they're playing the Browns. On the other hand, they better not think the victory is a given and maintain their focus. If they can play to their strengths, Pittsburgh should keep the upper hand throughout the game and pull off a sizeable victory. Grab the Steelers and the spread, high confidence points and take the over.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 23 @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 29 - This is one of those games that I stay clear of as far as picking the spread. I have no problem picking KC just to win, but when points are concerned, I get a bad feeling when it comes to Jekyll/Hyde teams like Buffalo- they can put up a mountain of points one week and trip over their dreams the next. I would stay away from the spread but if was forced to choose, I'd take Tampa Bay and points. Low confidence and take the over.

BALTIMORE RAVENS 23 @ DALLAS COWBOYS 34 - This should be a good game with the Cowboys ending up pulling away, earning a hard fought win. I believe the play of the rookie stars, offense line and defense of Dallas will hold down the fort and and wrangle them a victory.  Jeesh. The Ravens are too hot and cold for me when it comes to putting up big points so I'm taking the Cowboys and the spread, medium confidence points and take the over.

CHICAGO BEARS 13 @ NEW YORK GIANTS 31 - The Bears are the Browns of the NFC and the Giants are going to remind them of that. Their defense looked really good this past week against the Bengals and will be way too much for Jay Cutler and the rest of the Bears to handle. I'd take the Giants and the spread, high confidence points and take the over.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 23 @ DETROIT LIONS 30 - This game will be close with a lot of garbage time production on both ends if you can believe it. Both of these offenses are slow starters bit usually end up putting up decent production. I like the Lions at home. Stafford has some good weapons and isn't afraid to use them. The Jags are too streaky for me and I don't like the flow of their offense. I would take Jax and points on this one even though I think the Lions will win. Low to mid confidence and take the over.

ARIZONA CARDINALS 27 @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS 16 - I'd like to think that the Vikings have their act together after playing like garbage for the last few weeks, but regardless if they made some corrections, Arizona will be too much for them. The offense of the Cardinals has an identity, something Minnesota lacks. This will be the difference of the game. The Vikings' above average defense won't be able to score points for Sam Bradford and company. Safely take Arizona and the spread, high confidence points and stay away from the over/under.

MIAMI DOLPHINS 27 @ L.A. RAMS 20 - The Rams have a great defense... but that's about it. Miami is more of a complete team and should have no problem getting a win. Take Miami and the spread, low to mid fantasy points as well as the over.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 16 @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 30 - Russell Wilson is healthy and the Seahawks are rockin' out with their neon socks out. The one-two punch of Seattle's offense and defense will create confusion and bad decision making for the Eagles. Seahawks and the spread, high confidence points and the under.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 45 @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ers 20 - Tom Brady doesn't lose two games in a row and will probably make a statement this week against the Niners' crappy D. The Patriots' defense isn't perfect and will most likely give up some points, so that bodes well for making the over. Also go with New England and the spread and high confidence points.

GREEN BAY PACKERS 30 @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS 33 - I'm going against the grain on this one and taking the Redskins. The Packers' secondary has been awful and they just can't get it together as of late. Kirk Cousins and the rest of the kin folk are getting it done and look stronger and stronger every week. I would go with the Redskins and the points, low confidence and grab the over.

HOUSTON TEXANS 20 @ OAKLAND RAIDERS 34 - The Raiders have too much power for the Texans and even though defensive statements aren't made by the home team in Oakland, they should have no problem stifling the struggling play of Houston. Easily take the Raiders and the spread, medium confidence points and go with the over.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s been an interesting season through 10 weeks. The Zeke and Dak show rolled through another one of the better teams in the league last week. CJ Prosise, Rob Kelley, Wendell Smallwood, and Tyreek Hill all made good on increased opportunities, while one of the steadiest rookie performers took a step back (Michael Thomas). Above all else, the national TV games were actually exciting this week (if you don’t count the Thursday game). While it’s been a rough season for some of the highest drafted skill position rookies, one of them did get some good news this week as the Rams are finally making the move to Jared Goff at QB. Most feel that they waited too long to make the switch, but it’ll be fun to watch at any rate. Maybe Paxton Lynch will be next. Let’s jump in and see what we can expect from the rookies in week 11…

Rookies to Start:

RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 11: vs. Bal.): The Ravens rank number one in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat which measures efficiency, and have allowed he fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. None of that matters to Zeke. While he likely won’t duplicate last week’s monster game and isn’t exactly a chalk play in DFS this week, no matchup is daunting enough at this point to push him to your bench in season-long leagues.

RB Rob Kelley, WAS (Wk. 11: vs. GB): The Packers’ run defense that was so stout early on this season suddenly has looked vulnerable in recent weeks. They still rank 5^th in run defense DVOA, and are in the top-10 in limiting RB fantasy points, but they’ve given up a whopping 77 points to running backs in the past 3 games (all point totals are in ESPN standard scoring). It’s true that 23 of those points were given up in the passing game, where Kelley has little impact, but with the volume he’s seen lately Kelley should have no trouble being a usable RB2 this week.

WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 11: @Car.): I think a bounce-back is in order for Thomas after a rough outing against Denver. He had tallied 50+ yards and/or a TD in every single game prior to week 10, and squared off with the best WR defense in the league last week. The Panthers are in the bottom third of the league vs. wide receivers, and Thomas managed to put up 5-78-1 in the Saints’ first meeting with Carolina. I expect something in that neighborhood again this week and think Thomas is back in play as a solid WR3 Thursday night.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 11: vs. Bal.): Prescott finished as the QB10 against Pittsburgh last week, but the matchup is a little tougher this week. The Ravens rank 6^th in pass defense DVOA, and allow the 7^th fewest QB fantasy points per game. Dak has shown to have a usable floor, with 17 points or more in 8 straight games, but he’s probably more of a high-end QB2 this week rather than a locked-in QB1.

RB Jordan Howard, CHI (Wk. 11: @NYG): I’m not buying the injury talk around Howard. Coach Fox said he was hurt after he was limited to just 2 carries for 11 yards in the second half last week. Howard rolled to 89 yards in the first half and claimed he didn’t suffer an injury when he was first asked. He’s since changed his tune to the company line, but there’s something more going on here. He is practicing in full this week and should suit up. If he’s the lead back this week as he should be, he’ll be a mid-level RB2 in a bit of difficult matchup, but the bogus injury claim makes me question if he will have his usual role in this one. The uncertainty is enough for me to drop him down a few spots to a borderline RB2/RB3 play.

RB CJ Prosise, SEA (Wk. 11: vs. Phi.): Prosise is a much better option for PPR leagues than standard this week. Thomas Rawls seems all but certain after the release of Christine Michael, and he likely will take a bigger chunk of the workload than Michael did last week. Pete Carroll has already claimed that Rawls will ‘play considerably’ in week 11. With a decreased role and a tougher matchup this week, Prosise will be hard-pressed to duplicate Sunday night’s results. The Eagles allow the 5th-fewest RB points per game. It isn’t all bleak for CJ. The Seahawks offense has been pass-heavy of late, and Prosise is still the best receiving back on the team. Also, the Eagles rank just 24^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to RBs. He should be good to go as a PPR flex, but I’d be cautious about using him in that capacity in standard leagues.

RB Kenneth Dixon, BAL (Wk. 11: @Dal.): Dixon was productive on 11 touches last week, and his snap share has been steadily increasing. He’s the superior passing down back of he and Terrance West, and the Cowboys have been allowing 54 receiving yards per game to running backs. West has just 12 catches for 77 yards in 9 games this season. Dixon has caught a pass on 41.7% of the plays in which he’s run a receiving route. There won’t be a ton of rushing volume for the rookie, but he is very much in play as a flex option in PPR leagues.

WR Tyreek Hill, KC (Wk. 11: vs. TB): Hill saw 13(!) targets last week with Jeremy Maclin sidelined, and Maclin hasn’t practiced all week and appears likely to be out again with a groin injury. The Bucs do rank 7^th in pass defense DVOA on short passes, which are Hill’s strength, but they also have allowed the 2nd-most WR fantasy points per game. With the volume Hill is likely to see, he should be a solid WR3 option in PPR leagues, and more of a borderline play in standard leagues. He did average just 8.9 yards per catch in week 10.

WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (Wk. 11: vs. Chi.): Shepard still isn’t producing big yardage numbers, but his target share remains steady and he’s found the end zone in each of the last 2 games. The Bears allow the most WR fantasy points per game in the league, so Shepard is a good bet as a floor WR3 again this week, and he gets a slight boost if Victor Cruz sits again (though that seems unlikely).

Rookies to Sit:

QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 11: @Sea.): The Seahawks have definitely seemed more vulnerable against the pass this year, allowing 200+ yards passing in each of their past 6 games, but they’ve allowed multiple passing TDs just once. Wentz has thrown just 2 TDs and turned the ball over 6 times in the past 5 games, and has just 1 game with over 240 yards since their week 4 bye. The Seahawks struggles make them a matchup you don’t have to avoid with good quarterbacks, but not one you should target with mediocre ones. Leave Wentz on the pine.

QB Jared Goff, LA (Wk. 11: vs. Mia.): It’s worth keeping an eye on Goff’s start to see how he fares against a middle-of-the-pack QB defense. We’ve seen other rookies have success right out of the gate in recent years. With that said, there’s no good way to justify starting a guy who has spent the past 10 weeks not being good enough to unseat Case Keenum. He should only be considered in leagues where EVERY starting QB is in a lineup.

RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI (Wk. 11: @Sea.): Smallwood had a surprising productive game in week 10, but he still played fewer snaps than both Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles. He disappeared for weeks after his first productive game this year, with a total of 53 scrimmage yards in the 5 games between his 70-yard outbursts. I’d expect him to fade back to being irrelevant this week.

RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 11: @Ind.): Henry remains a high-value handcuff for DeMarco Murray who won’t have much standalone value unless something were to happen to the starter. He saw a decent amount of work against Green Bay, but a lot of it was in garbage time with the Titans comfortably ahead. That’s not something you can count on each week with a 5-5 team, and he still only put up 3 fantasy points against the Packers.

RB Paul Perkins, NYG (Wk. 11: vs. Chi.): Perkins still hasn’t moved ahead of Rashad Jennings on the depth chart, and the Bears’ run defense has been better than you’d think. They’ve allowed the 4^th fewest RB fantasy points per game, and held 4 backfields to single-digit fantasy totals in their past 6 contests. Considering that Perkins will split that with Jennings, and will take the lesser part of the split, there isn’t a good reason to fire him up this week.

RBs DeAndre Washington & Jalen Richard, OAK (Wk. 11: vs. Hou.): The extreme elevation in Mexico City (it’s more than 2,000 feet higher above sea level than Denver) could cause the Raiders to give Latavius Murray some extra rest and even out the carries a bit between he and his backups, but there is no way to know if it will benefit Richard or Washington more. Playing either of them is playing with fire, and it isn’t something I’d recommend.

WR Corey Coleman, CLE (Wk. 11: vs. Pit.): Coleman is always liable to break out with a big game thanks to his big-play ability, but Kessler still hasn’t shown the arm to throw deep, and only 4 teams have allowed fewer 20+ yard pass plays than the Steelers have. This shapes up as more of a Terrelle Pryor week, as the Steelers rank 29^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to WR1’s, and 11^th on throws to WR2’s. There is upside, but I would probably steer clear if you have better options.

WR Tyler Boyd, CIN (Wk. 11: vs. Buf.): Boyd has topped 40 yards just twice all year, and only once in the past 7 games. The floor is really low, and there isn’t a ceiling to chase.

Rookies on Byes: RB Devontae Booker, DEN, WR Robby Anderson, NYJ, TE Hunter Henry, SD, TE Austin Hooper, ATL

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Cody Kessler, CLE (Wk. 11: vs. Pit.): I know, this is an odd call given I just said to sit one of his best wide receivers, but Kessler might make a decent floor QB2 this week. The Steelers have allowed 250+ passing yards in 8 of their 9 games this season, and 14+ QB points in 7 of them. The Browns’ passing game has been a bit of a mess lately, but Kessler should be getting more comfortable as he gains experience and continues to get used to having his full complement of weapons. I like Kessler’s chances at approaching 250 yards and throwing at least one TD…Those are hardly exciting numbers, but there is a chance for more.

RB Dwayne Washington, DET (Wk. 11: vs. Jax.): Washington is the clear number 2 back behind Theo Riddick in Detroit, and the Jaguars have been struggling mightily against the run of late. They’ve allowed over 150 rushing yards in 2 of their past 3 games, and rank 28^th in run defense DVOA for the year. If Washington sees 10 or more carries, he may creep into an RB3 day.

WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. 11: @Oak.): I know, Fuller isn’t exactly an unknown guy…but after putting up just 49 yards in the last 3 games he played and then sitting out 2 with injury, he’s probably off your radar a little. It doesn’t help that his QB Brock Osweiler is a complete bum. Fuller should return this week, and there are some things to like about this matchup. Although the Raiders haven’t allowed a top-20 receiver since week 5, they’ve allowed a league-high 11 pass plays of 40 or more yards in 9 games. Fuller is certainly the most likely Texan to come up with one of those. He’s a very risky boom-or-bust option. His floor is basically zero, but he could make a big impact with just one deep ball.

WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 11: @Ind.): Sharpe is another guy who, like Fuller, isn’t some new name you haven’t heard. He’s been a disappointment for much of the year despite basically being the Titans’ WR1. The Tennessee offense has gotten on a roll lately, and Sharpe’s numbers have finally started to stabilize. He’s had 58 or more yards in 3 of the past 4 games, and scored his first career TD last weekend. Delanie Walker will likely be the focal point this Sunday, but Sharpe is still playing a starter’s snaps and facing a defense that ranks 30^th in pass defense DVOA. He’s actually in play as a WR3 in deep leagues.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of your tougher lineup decisions this week. Keep an eye on the injury report with players like Jeremy Maclin, Jordan Howard, Will Fuller, and others who may affect your lineup. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything included above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.

12 Missed Extra Points

Kickers across the league set a record yesterday, missing 12 extra point attempts in just one day. A few of them were blocked, but most of them were flat out missed. Lead by Mike Nugent and Robbie Gould who each missed two, 8 other kickers joined the fun. Even Adam Vinatieri got in on the action, finally breaking his streak, ending with 44 consecutive made field goals. Want some perspective? In 2014, the last year of the short extra points, there were 8 misses on the whole season. I suspect most defenses (and kickers) weren't even trying back then.

6 Missed Field Goals

Yes, more perspective, yes, more kickers. Across the league in week 11, kickers made 37 of 43 field goals attempted (86%), compared to the 47 of 59 (79%) on extra points. Leading the way is a guy who didn't miss a single kick all day, playing outside in the cold of Kansas City in late November. Roberto Aguayo has been sketchy most of the season but delivered 4 field goals when his team really needed it. Tampa's win on the road against the Chiefs is their best since week 1 in Atlanta. On the other side, maybe this will make Andy Reid do something to get his offense going - he can't rely on his defense to win every game.

88.40 Fantasy Points

We're finally getting good national games on a regular basis. Sunday night's Redskins - Packers game may not have been as close as the good ones last week, but it had plenty of fireworks. The game contained three of the top 5 fantasy players of the week - Rob Kelley, Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins, who combined for 88.40 points. If not for a Jared Cook fumble which instantly ruined the Packers comeback chances, there may have been even more points from Rodgers. Instead, we got a look at the backup QB.

1 Pick Six, 1 Return TD

Both the Lions and Vikings D/ST had a pair of touchdowns on Sunday afternoon. Both teams had a pick-six and a kickoff or punt returned, though the Vikings went for 100 or more yards on each of theirs. The Lions got the job done with shorter fields ahead of them. Holding on to first place, they will host the Vikings for the first Thanksgiving game coming up on Thursday. With first place at stake, I expect Matt Stafford and the Lions to do their best to shake the fact that they have trailed during the 4th quarter in every single game this season.

14 Fantasy Points

The high water mark for kickers in Week 11 so far is just 14 points, by the aforementioned Robert Aguayo. Only 4 kickers have reached double digits in fantasy points this week, though Janikowski plays tonight and always has a chance to score big points. Why did I make you read a third stat about kickers, you may be asking yourself. Well, I always try to match up a team's success to that of a fantasy position. This week, 7 of the top 8 kickers come from winning teams - three of them in games decided by less than a touchdown.