Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Well it's here, folks. The 2015 fantasy football season is upon us. Here at drinkfive we're happy to bring you our preseason rankings, freshly baked from the oven. We'll continue to update these rankings over the coming weeks leading up to the start of the 2015 regular NFL season.

Some quick notes: Jamaal Charles grades out as our #1 overall draft pick in standard leagues - he is still very much the focal point of the Chiefs' offense, and the recent injury to backup Knile Davis can only play to Charles' advantage. Regardless, expect the world from a guy that has consistently put up the kind of points on a weekly basis that wins leagues. Newcomer C.J. Anderson on the Broncos is projected to be the bellcow back in Denver and has crept up to #3 overall in standard leagues. We're betting that Anderson builds on his excellent performances in 2014 to be a fantasy standout this season. Wide receiver Odell Beckham is out of control. Based on our ranking algorithm, he should be the #1 WR selected in standard leagues and should be all types of fun to watch play in 2015. Rob Gronkowski is leaps and bounds better than any other tight end in the league and will likely go toward the end of the first round in most fantasy leagues. Most other tight ends below Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham are not valuable enough in our opinion to reach for early, so we would recommend waiting on that position to grab one or two of the lesser known guys like Travis Kelce or Jordan Cameron instead. Quarterbacks are a crap-shoot after Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers, but if one of them falls to you early it's going to be hard not to pull the trigger!

Best of luck drafting in 2015, check back here often to see our updated preseason rankings for the 2015 season or catch up with us and other fantasy football experts at FantasyPros. To the 'ship!

Week 11 byes include the Browns, Giants, Saints and Steelers. Thankfully it’s the last round of bye weeks for the season. Injuries continue to mount making the waiver wire your first chance at replacing or stashing the next man up. It’s never too early to start thinking playoffs either as we look ahead at the value the wire brings us for week 11 matchups.

Quarterbacks

Matt Hasselbeck, IND – Injuries continue to sideline Andrew Luck this season. Matt Hasselbeck will be forced back into the starting roll against Atlanta this Sunday. Hasselbeck’s numbers were not crazy from a fantasy stand point in his two previous starts, but he protected the football and was serviceable. The match up against Atlanta is favorable and looking ahead in week 12 he has a second favorable matchup against Tampa Bay, if he is called upon again. There is most likely better streaming options available in single QB leagues, but those brave enough for the 2 QB leagues are looking at Hasselbeck with some interest.

Brock Osweiler, DEN – Whether its protecting the legacy or truly a bad injury concern Peyton Manning is grabbing some bench in week 11 against the Bears. Enter Brock Osweiler, the backup we know very little about. We can’t judge too much on last week’s game as Osweiler and the Broncos were severely crippled by Peyton Manning before he left the game. Brock will have a full week of preparation on his side when playing the Bears. On top of that I expect to see the defense step up and potential create some very favorable situations for the second stringer.

Running Backs

Matt Jones, WAS – A minor injuries paved the way for Matt Jones to step in for Alfred Morris. Jones earned 187 yards on 11 rush attempts and 3 catches. Washington will continue to be a true committee situation but Jones is trending better than Morris in the last two games. This is a player you will want to capitalize on as the playoff edge closer. He has a very high ceiling with good match ups against Carolina, The New York Giants, and Dallas in the next few weeks. He’s only owned in 48% of leauges.

Andre Ellington, ARI – At this point of the year you might want to start making room for late season sleepers. Andre Ellington falls into that category in my opinion. He hasn’t earned nearly half of his production back but he is making the most of his carries. Last week he tallied 61 yards and a touchdown on just 5 touches. If you have the room for him on your bench and you expect to be in your leagues playoff he might be worth a stash. Production like his breeds more touches and Chris Johnson is no spring chicken.

Wide Receivers

Danny Amendola, NE - Our week 11 “next man up” is Danny Amendola. Julian Edelman just had surgery on his foot and Amendola will see an increased roll. He is probably the highest ranked waiver claim this week overall. Last week he had 10 receptions on 11 targets for 79 yards. He has always been a talented player, but he has struggled to stay healthy himself. Tom Brady has a lot of confidence in Amendola and the increased looks only makes him an immediate fantasy impact player.

Dwayne Harris, NYG – Another stash player heading into week 11 is Dwayne Harris. 3 of his last 4 games he has seen double digit fantasy numbers. Week 9 was a huge blemish on his fantasy value however. In weeks 8 and 10 he has 3 touchdowns total. Right now he is a risk, but showing signs of improved play and more confidence from Eli. The Giants are on bye in week 11 so only take the chance on him if your cruising in your leagues.

Tight Ends

Crockett Gillmore, BAL – This is the second week in a row Crockett Gillmore makes the waiver list. Usually I avoid doubling up on guys, but he proved himself last week and is only owned in 13% of leagues. Steve Smith Sr. going down caused a major void in the passing game and Crocket did his part to fill that void for Joe Flacco. He caught all 4 of his targets for 42 yards and a touchdown. I expect to see him continue to take on an expanded role for the Ravens.

Kickers

Cairo Santos, KC – A top 3 player at his position is only owned in 21% of the leagues. Cairo Santos has had his ups and downs to be honest, but his ups have been big. His future schedule is favorable with games against San Diego, Buffalo and Oakland in the next 3 weeks. Kansas City as a team continues to favor Santos too as he has 22 field goals on the season with 9 being 40 yards or more.

Defense/Special Teams

Kansas City Chiefs – They are a top 10 fantasy defense this season. In their last 5 games they have allowed less than 20 points to opponents too. Improved sack statistics have also complimented the KC defense. They have San Diego, Buffalo and Oakland the next three weeks and aren’t a bad options for those fantasy players streaming defenses all season.

Taking a look at the player trends over the past few weeks can reveal some surprising things - it's important, though, to temper expectations in some cases and realize that some great (and some awful) performances can be the product of gameflow as much as the talent and/or rising production of a player. But since each player can only be owned by one team at a time in most standard fantasy leagues, you've got to scoop them up before anyone else and make smart decisions as far as when to play a rising (or falling) star. What do you think about these scenarios? Will the players listed below live up to expectations based on recent weeks?

We discuss our thoughts on the below players on this week's podcast: 

Quarterbacks

Trevor Siemian (DEN, QB)

Week 1 vs. CAR – 18/26, 178yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 11.12pts

Week 2 vs. IND – 22/33, 266yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 12.34pts

Week 3 @CIN – 23/35, 312yds, 4 TD, 0 INT, 28.98pts

Siemian was an underdog from the beginning of the preseason, and had a rough start in 2016, but he lit it up against the Bengals in Week 3 and has constantly improved since the opening game against the Panthers. He is now the 12^th highest scoring QB in standard scoring leagues after 3 weeks, can he score 18 points or more this week against the Bucs?

Kirk Cousins (WAS, QB)

Week 1 vs. PIT – 30/43, 329yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, 11.96pts

Week 2 vs. DAL – 28/46, 364yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 19.56pts

Week 3 @NYG – 21/35, 296yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 19.34pts

Similar to Siemian, Cousins has increased his effectiveness and gotten better at protecting the football every week so far in 2016. The Redskins go up against the Browns’ lackluster defense in week 4 – can he put up 17 or more points?

Running Backs

Tevin Coleman (ATL, RB)

Week 1 vs. TB – 8/22yds, 0 TD, 5rec, 95yds, 0 TD, 11.70pts

Week 2 @OAK – 12/46yds, 1 TD, 2rec, 25yds, 0 TD, 13.10pts

Week 3 @NO – 12/42yds, 3 TD, 3rec, 47yds, 0 TD, 26.90pts

Coleman has been more involved in the Falcons’ offense this year and it doesn’t look like that will change anytime soon. He does go up against the Panthers’ defense in week 4, however. Will Coleman be able to continue this burst of productivity and put up 17 or more points?

Theo Riddick (DET, RB)

Week 1 @IND – 7/45yds, 1 TD, 5rec, 63yds, 1 TD, 22.80pts

Week 2 vs. TEN – 11/37yds, 0 TD, 4rec, 28yds, 0 TD, 6.50pts

Week 3 @GB – 10/9yds, 0 TD, 7rec, 39yds, 0 TD, 4.80pts

Riddick was a huge waiver wire add after week 1’s performance, and was hyped up in the fantasy football world after it was revealed that lead back Ameer Abdullah may miss the entire 2016 season. The emergence of Dwayne Washington makes us give pause, however, and his sinking production isn’t helping. Can Riddick step it back up in week against the Bears and score at least 11 points to make himself fantasy relevant once again?

Wide Receivers

Quincy Enunwa (NYJ, WR)

Week 1 vs. CIN – 7/8, 54yds, 1 TD, 11.40pts

Week 2 @BUF – 6/6, 92yds, 0 TD, 9.20pts

Week 3 @KC – 4/11, 37yds, 0 TD, 3.70pts

Enunwa has been a hot topic this year and since Marshall has been a little hobbled by his knee injury in week 2, it was assumed that Enunwa may be able to step up and provide some fantasy production. Granted week 3 was a terrible one for the Jets’ offense in general, but with Marshall getting healthier once more and Fitzpatrick looking to get back on track in week 4 against Seattle is it possible that Enunwa gets lost in the mix? Will he be able to score at least 8 points among all of the other mouths to feed in that offense?

Jamison Crowder (WAS, WR)

Week 1 vs. PIT – 6/10, 58yds, 0 TD, 5.80pts

Week 2 vs. DAL – 6/8, 39yds, 1 TD, 9.90pts

Week 3 @NYG – 4/7, 78yds, 1 TD, 13.80pts

Crowder looks to be supplanting Pierre Garcon as the starting WR opposite DeSean Jackson. He has been displaying great elusiveness and doing everything that the team asks him to. Going up against the Browns in week 4 should certainly not prove any more difficult than the other teams that he has played so far this year. Will he continue this positive trend and put up at least 10 points this week?

Tight End

Jimmy Graham (SEA, TE)

Week 1 vs. MIA – 1/1, 11yds, 0 TD, 1.10pts

Week 2 @LA – 3/4, 42yds, 0 TD, 4.20pts

Week 3 vs. SF -  6/9, 100yds, 1 TD, 14.00pts

Graham had a gruesome injury last year (patellar tendon) that many athletes never return from in full-form. Even when he was healthy he was still having some issues gelling with the Seahawks offense and finding his place within it. Amazingly, it looks like he did make a full recovery and was doing Jimmy Graham-like things in week 3 and playing a full complement of snaps. Can Graham keep it up against the Jets in week 4 with a backup QB and score at least 7 points?

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s been a long, grueling offseason without football, but week 1 is finally upon us! For those of you who are new here, the Rookie Report is my weekly breakdown of the matchups each of the fantasy relevant rookies will face. Each week I’ll break them down into rookies to start, borderline rookies, and rookies to sit, then I’ll give you a few guys to consider as deep league fill-ins or cheap DFS tournament plays. Week 1 is always one of the toughest to project. It’s hard to know what to expect from players who have never taken a regular season NFL snap, and it’s also tough to know for sure which defenses will regress or improve from one year to the next until we see them on the field. For that reason, week 1 is going to be full of mostly guys to sit and sleepers, but I try to give a little insight as to why each week as well.

Since it’s week 1, I also have a special treat before we get into this week’s matchups. Here’s a look at my top-10 fantasy rookies for 2018:

1. Saquon Barkley, RB, NYG: Barkley is poised to be the Giants’ workhorse back, and barring injury appears to be a lock to finish as one of the top-8 backs in fantasy this year in PPR leagues. He should carry plenty of value in non-PPR leagues as well.

2. Royce Freeman, RB, DEN: Freeman has come on strong through training camp and the preseason, and he is an unexpected player to see here as the #2 rookie. Nick Chubb, Derrius Guice, Rashaad Penny and Sony Michel all had higher draft positions, but either due to injury or tougher competition for playing time, they all open the season in worse position than Royce. Freeman looks to be the lead back in Denver from week 1 on, and he should be a low-end RB2 in most formats. Denver’s offense should improve overall with Case Keenum under center.

3. Michael Gallup, WR, DAL: Gallup walks into a wide-open Cowboys’ WR depth chart with plenty of targets available now that Dez and Witten are gone, and he should start on the outside right away. The Cowboys will want to be run-heavy with Ezekiel Elliott, but their defense and banged up o-line could make that challenging. Gallup has WR3 upside this season.

4. DJ Moore, WR, CAR: Moore should start immediately in Carolina, but he’ll face stiffer target competition than Gallup. Greg Olsen returns, Christian McCaffrey is poised for a monster year, and Devin Funchess remains a starter after a breakout campaign in ’17. I trust that Moore is the more talented receiver of he and Gallup, but he’ll be hard-pressed to carve out a fantasy-starter kind of workload.

5. Sony Michel, RB, NE: The Patriots’ backfield is often the bane of many fantasy owners’ existence due to inconsistent usage from week-to-week, but I have faith that Michel has a big role this season. Belichick has never really invested much capital into the position. They’ve always made do with late round draft picks, cast-offs from other teams and undervalued free agents. Mike Gillislee, Dion Lewis, Rex Burkhead, James White, Jeremy Hill, LeGarrette Blount. None of them have cost much to acquire, which is why it stands out that the Pats used a first round pick to acquire Michel. He may start slowly as he works his way back from a preseason knee injury, but make no mistake, the Patriots think this is a special player and he’ll be involved.

6. Kerryon Johnson, RB, DET: Johnson will likely still have to work his way past Blount to be a fantasy force this year, but Blount hasn’t had much success outside of New England in his career. After investing a first round pick in a nasty run-blocking center, and trading up in the second to get Kerryon, it looks like Johnson has a chance to give the Lions the running game they’ve been seeking for most of the past decade.

7. Anthony Miller, WR, CHI: There are a ton of targets available in Chicago with a fully revamped group of pass catchers in town. Miller should be a factor early in the year, and he could really shine if Allen Robinson falters in his return from his ACL injury from last year. 800 yards and a handful of TDs would be a successful rookie campaign for the Memphis product.

8. Rashaad Penny, RB, SEA: Penny has definitely faltered in training camp after the Seahawks selected him in the first round, but he’ll get his chances as the season gets going. Seattle wants to be much more run-heavy this year, as evidenced by the hiring of Brian Schottenheimer as OC and the offseason investment in Penny and the o-line. Chris Carson will get the first crack at the job, but I’d be surprised if Penny doesn’t push for 200 carries barring an injury.

9. Nick Chubb, RB, CLE: Carlos Hyde as operated as the lead back throughout camp, and Duke Johnson’s 3^rd-down role is secure, but Chubb is just too talented to keep him down for long. He’ll get his opportunities, and when he succeeds with them, he’ll get more of them. Chubb has a chance to be a fantasy force in the second half of the season.

10. Sam Darnold, QB, NYJ: Darnold is the only rookie QB slated to start week 1, and I’d fully expect him to start all season. He has a few weapons now that the Jets have realized Bilal Powell is their best RB and they’ve got Quincy Enunwa back healthy. There will be some growing pains, but Darnold has a chance to finish the year as a respectable QB2 if he hits the ground running.

That’s all for the Top-10; now let’s dig into the week 1 slate…

Rookies to Start:

RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): Barkley is the one rookie I can confidently recommend for week 1. The Giants took him 2^nd overall, and they plan to use him a ton. Jacksonville’s defense is considered to be the best in the league, but they were giving to opposing RBs last year. They ranked 27^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, which measures efficiency, and struggled a bit to contain backs who could catch as well. You didn’t make Barkley your first pick to sit him week one.

Borderline Rookies:

RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 1: vs. Sea.): Freeman draws a defense that was in the middle of the pack against the run in 2017, and they have lost much of the starting lineup that got them there. This isn’t the same Seattle defense that was feared a few years ago, and Freeman has a great shot at a successful debut. He’s an excellent flex option this week.

RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 1: vs. NYJ): I’d probably lean towards not playing Kerryon this week, but I’d expect he’ll at least be splitting the early down work with Blount, and the Lions are favored by nearly a touchdown. If Johnson finds the end zone, he’ll post a solid day.

WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 1: vs. Dal.): Moore is a flex option in deeper leagues this week. The Dallas defense could be abysmal this year, and DJ is essentially going to be the Panthers’ WR 1-A this season. 5-70 isn’t an unrealistic hope for Moore’s debut.

WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 1: @Car.): On the other side of this matchup, Gallup will have a chance to produce as well. The Panthers’ young secondary is decent, but nothing to be afraid of here, and I think Dallas plays from behind and throws more than they’d like. That negative game script would bode well for Gallup. I’d rather play Moore this week, but Gallup is also on the flex radar in week 1.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 1: @Det.): Darnold will be the youngest QB ever to start in week 1 of their rookie season, and he goes into Detroit as a 6.5-point underdog facing a defense that forced more turnovers last year than any teams not named the Jaguars or Ravens. He also will be without one of his starting receivers in Jermaine Kearse. It’s not a recipe for success his first time out.

RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 1: vs. Pit.): I love Chubb’s upside for the back half of the year, and the Steelers’ run defense hasn’t been the same since Ryan Shazier’s injury, but at least for week 1 it will probably be the Carlos Hyde show on early downs. Chubb may see a handful of carries, but it’s hard to predict big things with such a limited workload.

RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 1: @Den.): Penny will likely see a few carries, but for now it’s going to be Chris Carson leading the way for the Seahawks’ backfield, and the matchup this week is daunting if Denver is anywhere near as good against the run as they were a year ago. Steer clear of Penny this week.

RB Ronald Jones, TB (Wk. 1: @NO): This one should be pretty obvious as Jones was listed as the team’s 3^rd-string back behind Peyton Barber and Jacquizz Rodgers earlier this week. Don’t overthink it.

RB Jaylen Samuels, PIT (Wk. 1: @Cle.): Trust the people telling you that James Conner is the back you want this week with Le’Veon Bell likely to miss this game. I’m curious to see how the Steelers deploy Samuels given his versatility (he played TE, RB and WR in college), but I don’t expect him to pick up much of the slack left by Bell’s absence this week.

WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 1: @Phi.): Ridley enters the season as the #3 receiver behind Julio and Sanu, and that likely puts him behind Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman in the target pecking order as well. That’s just too low in the food chain to trust until we see different on the field.

WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 1: vs. Was.): While I like Kirk to finish the year as the Cardinals’ 2^nd WR, his role for week 1 is foggy at best. It sounds like he will be rotating with Chad Williams and JJ Nelson, and his usage will just be too hard to predict for fantasy purposes in the opener.

WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 1: vs. Sea.): I was very tempted to list Sutton as a sleeper this week as he’s been better than expected through the preseason, but I’m just not sure there will be enough passing volume out of Denver to trust Sutton in week 1. He’s still behind Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas in the pecking order. There’s definitely upside given what he’s shown so far, but I would have a hard time trusting him in week 1.

TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 1: vs. Ten.): The Dolphins’ head coach Adam Gase has talked up the role that Gesicki will play this season, but the reality is that the rookie caught just 1 pass in the preaseason, he’s struggled as a blocker as well, and rookie tight ends rarely produce strong fantasy numbers. Also, the Dolphins haven’t had a TE reach 400 receiving yards in Gase’s two seasons as head coach. I’ll need to see it before I believe it with Gesicki.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Plays:

RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 1: vs. Hou.): In all honesty, I trust Rex Burkhead more than Michel in week one since there is no guarantee that Sony is able to play yet, but if he goes I expect he’ll be involved. As I mentioned with Michel in my top-10 rookies, the Patriots NEVER spend resources on a running back. I think they want Sony to show why he’s the exception. He’s an intriguing risk/reward flex play for deeper leagues if he’s a go.

RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 1: vs. Cin.): You could certainly make a case for Hines’s teammate Jordan Wilkins as a sleeper here since it’s likely Wilkins starts on Sunday. Wilkins certainly has the higher floor, but against the Bengals’ defense, I’d rather roll the dice on the big play guy. Hines has struggled through the preseason, but Marlon Mack’s absence should open the door for him to get on the field on 3^rd downs, and it only takes a couple big plays for Hines to have a huge game. He’s an explosive athlete, and one who could catch the Bengals by surprise. He’s no more than a DFS tournament punt play, but one who could pay off big.

WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 1: @GB): The Packers are favored by more than a touchdown in this game, and if the Bears fall behind I think Miller has a chance at a stronger than expected game. The Packers’ have had one of the worst pass defenses in the league two years running, and I don’t think they addressed it enough this offseason to make major strides. A 4-60 kind of game wouldn’t surprise me from Miller. If he finds the end zone with it, he’ll make some DFS players a little money.

WR James Washington, PIT (Wk. 1: @Cle.): With Le’Veon Bell sitting in week one, and the Browns boasting a stout run defense (ranked 4^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA last year), there are plenty of passing targets to go around for the Steelers.  Cleveland’s defensive scheme under Gregg Williams was kind of a joke last year, often lining up a safety deep enough to return a punt. It helped the Browns not get killed deep, but they were roasted in the intermediate part of the field, an area where Washington excelled in his career at Oklahoma State. I’d expect Washington to play in 3-WR sets this week, and the opportunity is there for him to be a sneaky DFS dart throw.

WR TreQuan Smith, NO (Wk. 1: vs. TB): I was sleeping on TreQuan around the time of the draft, but it’s hard to overlook what he’s been doing this preseason. The Saints clearly love him, and he could wind up the long-term WR2 behind Mike Thomas. He’s impressed all preseason while Cam Meredith was sidelined. He’s got a little work to do to move up the depth chart, but he’s an excellent dynasty or deep league stash at this point in the year. It’s very possible he surpasses Meredith and Ted Ginn by the latter part of the season.

TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 1: vs. Atl.): Goedert could be in line for a strong debut. The Eagles will be without Alshon Jeffrey, and his likely replacement in Mack Hollins. That really leaves just Nelson Agholor and Mike Wallace as worthwhile receivers that will be available. Expect a bunch of two-TE sets from Philly on Thursday, and expect Goedert to surprise. 5-6 targets is a reasonable expectation for the former South Dakota State Jackrabbit.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Enjoy the action as the season gets underway Thursday night. Keep an eye on the injury report to make sure you don’t end up starting a player who isn’t going to suit up, and as always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.