Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

It is no wonder the NFL is the most popular sport in America. Week 1 is fresh in the books and the drama and excitement is still a buzz around the water cooler. Seattle goes down in St. Louis where we are never surprised to see a shootout, Indianapolis was the first casualty of the stout Rex Ryan coached Bills Defense and Peyton Manning has to be wondering “why he came back one more year” (read to the jingle of his Nationwide commercials). Fantasy owners are already feeling the pain too after injuries brought down players like T.Y. Hilton, Dez Bryant, Andre Ellington and Ladarius Green. Fear not fellow fantasy family! The early weeks of the football season bring with them a wealth of waiver wire potential.

Tyrod Taylor, BUF – The Bills shocked the heartland with a week 1 win over the visiting Colts. At the helm was first year starter Tyrod Taylor. He went 14-19 for 195 yards and a touchdown while adding 41 yards on the ground. The Bills were obviously cautious with Taylor only having 19 passing attempts; however he showed confidence with a 51 yard bomb to Percy Harvin. Taylor is only owned in 10% of leagues. Next week he has a favorable match-up against a questionable New England secondary. His dual threat talents reduce the risk associated with his lack of passing attempts.

Alex Smith, KC – Alex Smith is only owned in 20% of leagues right now. He completed 22 of 33 passes for 243 yards with 3 touchdowns in week 1. Alex Smith’s value is increased this year with an upgrade in weapons like Jeremy Maclin and the return of Travis Kelce. Kelce was on full display in week 1 with huge yards and 2 of the 3 Smith touchdown passes. Smith has a good week 2 match-up hosting Denver on Thursday night. Thursday games tend to be sloppy; however Alex Smith excels at protecting the football so he offers limited risk.

Other players to consider are Andy Dalton (owned in 26%) who, like Alex Smith, has a big Tight End target in Tyler Eifert. Nick Foles (owned in 13%) with an average of 11 yards per pass in week 1 and favorable match-ups against Washington, Pittsburgh and Green Bay in 3 of his next 4 games.

Running Backs

DeAngelo Williams, PIT – The Pittsburgh at New England season opener feels like it was a long time ago after the excitement of Sunday. One of the standouts I remember from that game was DeAngelo Williams. He gained 127 yards on 21 attempts and looked very fresh with surprising bursts of speed. Andre Ellington owners should look to Williams for a week 2 start against San Francisco. It’ll be his last game with any value as LeVeon Bell is due back in week 3, but featured backs are limited in the NFL these days. Williams is only owned in 37% of leagues.

Chris Johnson, ARI – Andre Ellington didn’t even make it through one game before making his fantasy owners pay the price. While it appears to be good news that he isn’t lost for the season his owners will be looking for a replacement for a few weeks. Owners don’t have to look far as Chris Johnson will be the guy stepping in. Bruce Arians is likely to lean on the veteran over the rookie David Johnson. Chris Johnson is long removed from his CJ2K season but he does have a favorable match-up against Chicago in week 2.

Other players to consider Bishop Sankey (owned in 47%) because of his ownership percentage he wasn’t a featured waiver pick up but if he is available in your league you should jump on that immediately. Danny Woodhead (owned in 50%) is another guy who doesn’t make the cut as a waiver feature but should be owned, proving to be the touchdown vulture in week 1.

Wide Receivers

Donte Moncrief, IND – The Colts got some positive news today regarding T.Y. Hilton however he is still likely to miss at least week 2. Moncrief proved to be a highly targeted option for Andrew Luck in the week 1 disappointment. He had 6 receptions on 11 targets for 46 yards with a touchdown. The week 2 match-up is tough against the Jets secondary but the Colts offense is designed to be high flying. The fact that Moncrief had so many targets points to a trust between him and Luck. In week 2 Moncrief will have more opportunities to make an impact. He is only owned in 11% of leagues.

James Jones, GB – When Jordy Nelson went down for the season there were question marks regarding who would step up. The late James Jones signing only added intrigue but week 1 answered any questions as to who would complete the Packers receiving core. Jones caught 2 touchdowns against the Bears in week one and caught all of his four targets for 51 yards. I expect to see Cobb and Adams seeing a bulk of the targets, but Jones proved his worth in the red zone and that simply cannot be ignored in fantasy formats. Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay are also known to spread the ball around so Jones solidifying that WR3 role on the team makes him a legit WR3 in fantasy too. He is only owned in 31% of leagues.

Terrance Williams, DAL – Dez Bryant is lost for 4-6 weeks and Terrance Williams will step up as the #1 in Dallas. In week 1 Williams saw 8 targets coming down with 5 of them for 60 yards. He had a chance at a TD too but dropped it. Williams is my favorite WR pick up this week simply because of the role he is moving into. He is owned in 57% of leagues so if he is available you need to act fast prioritize him high. Terrance Williams and Dallas has a very friendly next four weeks as they face Philadelphia, Atlanta, New Orleans and New England; All with suspect pass defenses.

Other players to keep an eye on are Percy Harvin (owned in 41%) who caught all 5 of his targets in week 1. Tyler Lockett (owned in 30%) has more to prove before being used regularly but his special teams play this week makes him a good pick up for teams looking to add depth early in the season.

Tight Ends

Heath Miller, PIT – Play-making tight ends are very limited but week 1 proved just how valuable they can be in fantasy football. See Travis Kelce, Tyler Eifert or Rob Gronkowski for proof. If you are finding yourself in a disappointing jam heading into week 2 look at Heath Miller. He caught 8 of his 11 targets in week 1 for 84 yards. Miller was a chain mover for Roethlisberger and will see an increased roll while Martavis Bryant finishes his suspension. Miller is only owned in 49% of leagues.

Other players to look for are Ladarius Green (owned in 20%). If you have the room on your roster you might want to make this move as he looked great in week 1 with 5 receptions for 74 yards and touchdown.

Kickers

Brandon McManus, DEN – It is tough to go wrong with a Denver kicker in the thin air. McManus nailed two 50+ yarders in week 1 on top of a 40+ and 30+. A good start for a guy with accuracy concerns. Next week Denver leaves the thin air for KC on Thursday night. I expect to see the Denver offense bounce back and move the ball, but Thursday night games are interesting as shorter prep time can often lead to stalled drives. Good for kickers. At the very least you’re picking up a guy who has 7 more games in Denver. He is only owned in 19% of leagues.

Josh Brown, NYG – Fantasy strategy allows for the kicker position to often time be shifted by match up. If you follow such strategy than Josh Brown is your guy to pick up this week. He was perfect in week 1 that included 40+ and 50+ field goals. His upcoming schedule is favorable against the weak defenses of Atlanta and Washington. He is owned in 14% of leagues.

Defense/Special Teams

Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens defense kept Peyton Manning and the Bronco’s out of the end zone all day. They pressured Manning all day sacking him 4 times and disrupting 6 more pass attempts. Losing Suggs is going to hurt a little bit but as a unit the Ravens looked good and should manage to overcome the loss. They have a very favorable week 2 against Oakland with favorable match-ups in weeks 3 and 4 against Cincinnati and Cleveland too.

Now that the yearly fantasy drafts are wrapped up it’s time for the degenerate gamblers in us all to turn our attention to our daily fantasy picks for week 1. I believe the early weeks in the season provide a perfect opportunity to pad your account with some easy money. Whether it’s Fanduel, or any other daily fantasy site, they are limited in the way they increase salaries for certain players without current year statistics backing it up. Good for you and me because we can grab some obvious value players in the early weeks before their salaries start to level off with their production. In my week 1 lineup I have a handful of such players.

Sam Bradford, PHI - $7,500 at ATL

I almost always try to find the best value pick at quarterback on Fanduel.  Passing touchdowns are only worth 4 points as opposed to 6 points for rushing and receiving so I like to save cap space at quarterback when I can. There is plenty to like about Sam Bradford in week 1. He has had a productive preseason and his talents fit very well in Chip Kelly’s offense. The Atlanta defense gave up the most passing yards last season. Philadelphia was second worst in passing defense last season so this game is shaping up to be a shootout. Lastly Sam Bradford’s injury concerns have very little merit in daily fantasy, unless he goes down early on Sunday (knock on wood).

Jeremy Hill, CIN - $8,600 at OAK

Jeremy Hill made his debut last season in week 9 and Giovani Bernard never stood a chance. Hill is the Bengals feature running back and received all the goal line work in the dress rehearsal game. This is a plus for week 1 as Oakland gave up 17 rushing touchdowns last season. He is toward the top of the cap for RB’s this week but this is prime example of why saving money on QB pays off.

Christopher Ivory, NYJ - $6,400 vs. CLE

Chris Ivory has risen to the top of the depth chart for the Jets to start the season. He is a beast with the rock and will likely see plenty of opportunity as Ryan Fitzpatrick was forced into the starting role. The Jets have a fantastic matchup this week against the Browns who ranked dead last in run defense last season. His hit against the cap is minimal for the amount of work we can expect to see and the favorable matchup.

Julio Jones, ATL - $9,000 vs. PHI

Very rarely will I recommend spending top dollar on any player. This week I am making that rare exception when it comes to Julio Jones. The Falcons/Eagles game has the highest projected point’s total (55) of any other game in Week 1. Atlanta prefers to get work done through the air and the matchup is perfect against the Eagles pass defense that finished 2^nd to last in 2014. Spend the cap space and gain yourself a clear cut elite WR1.

Jarvis Landry, MIA - $6,900 at WAS

Landry happens to be one of my favorite WR2’s heading into the season. He is entering into his second season as the clear #1 in Miami. Tannehill looks Landry’s way early and often making him a PPR favorite week in and week out. Week 1 in particular is a favorable matchup as the Redskins gave up the most passing touchdowns (35) last season.

Davante Adams, GB - $5,500 at CHI

We haven’t been able to see much Adams this preseason. The packers were devastated by the loss of Nelson and Cobb had an injury scare too so Green Bay saw fit to protect their receivers. That being said I like his value this week. He is the #2 wide receiver on a high powered passing offense with one of the best quarterbacks throwing to him. His value is increased this week more than some based on the favorable matchup against the Bears. The Bears defense was bad last season and with coaching changes and scheme changes I don’t see the improvement necessary to prevent the Packers from embarrassing them once again.

Martellus Bennett, CHI - $6,200 vs. GB

Bennett is the small shining light at the end of the long dark tunnel that is the Chicago Bears fantasy value this season. Bennett’s athleticism makes him a good option at TE but week 1 in particular has advantages. The Bears have injury concerns at wide receiver and Bennett’s role was increased in game 3 of the preseason. He is a favorable target in the end zone for Jay Cutler. Finally, he historically plays his best ball in September. Last season his September stat line was 29 rec. 295 yards and 4 TD’s; in 2013 he was 20/225/3. If there was any time to bet on Bennett it is week 1.

Cody Parkey, PHI - $5,000 at ATL

I follow two basic rules when finding value for a kicker in daily fantasy leagues. I look at the odds boards to see what games have high point’s projections and I particularly look for favorable games that are in domes. Cody Parkey is a fantastic find for week 1 that exceeds expectations for both of my criteria. No matter what other advice you may listen to or ignore this is the piece of advice you will want to take.

Miami Dolphins DST - $4,700 at WAS

People might forget that for about half the season last year Miami was a pretty stout defense. Injuries and overall lack of depth failed them at the end of the season, but they have bolstered that defense this off season. I can tell you in two words why I like this match up. Kirk. Cousins. If that isn’t enough then I will also site the fact that Washington has had a world of distractions and “miscommunication” involving RGIII leading up the start of this season. The Redskins are a mess. Miami defense is strong. 

Brewery: New Glarus (New Glarus, WI)

Style: Cream Ale

ABV: 5.1%

Commercial Description-Brewed with flaked barley and the finest Wisconsin malts. We even give a nod to our farmers with a little hint of corn. Naturally cloudy we allow the yeast to remain in the bottle to enhance fullness of flavors, which cannot be duplicated otherwise. Expect this Ale to be fun, fruity and satisfying.

(via newglarusbrewing.com)

My Review:

New Glarus Brewery is a smaller operation and its products are only enjoyed upon visiting Wisconsin. This limited distribution does two things: It maintains the quality and consistency of the product and it also creates a demand among beer enthusiasts. Every time I visit Wisconsin, buying some New Glarus beer is at the top of my list before leaving. On my most recent trip, thanks to business, I opted to pick up a couple 6-packs of Spotted Cow. While not one of those “come-to-Jesus” beers the appeal for me comes from it being a cream ale style. Not something you get to enjoy often.

As you pour a spotted cow out of the bottle you’ll be hit with the aroma, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Your glass fills with a light golden color carrying hints of amber or orange that are capped off with a nice, light and fluffy head. As the head dissipates and you examine the beer you’ll notice a small amount of cloudiness because Spotted Cow is bottled with the yeast. She’s a very appealing beer.

You’ll want to get your nose in the glass before the head expires. You’ll get a fruity smell at first which is most likely due to the yeast. It only makes the beer more inviting. The maltiness soon hits your senses with a hint of the corn. From the aroma you will already know this beer is about to be very refreshing. It’s clean with the slightest hint of hops.

When you take your sip you’ll notice that New Glarus has certainly perfected craft. It’s smooth and has medium mouth feel while being refreshingly light in the finish. The first taste you’ll notice is a bit of the fruitiness that I can’t quite pin point, maybe strawberries. The stars of the show are the malt varieties as they hit your taste buds. It is this flavor that will bring you back for another one almost immediately after taking the first sip. I hate to overuse this this term but the taste is very clean. The flavor profiles make this beer perfect for the summer, but its quality makes it too difficult to turn down as I relax on this February night.

Overall this beer rates as an 85/100 for me. I could never really see myself saying “I’m not in the mood for a Spotted Cow right now” with this beer. It’s refreshing and pairs well with almost anything. How well-crafted this beer is makes it one of my favorite low hopped beers. The fact that nothing blows me away about this in particular is a good thing. Sometimes keeping things clean and simple are exactly what a man needs.

Cheers!

Brewery: Bell’s (Kalamazoo, MI)

Style: American Double IPA/Imperial IPA

ABV: 10%

IBUs: 70

Commercial Description - Starting with six different hop varietals added to the brew kettle & culminating with a massive dry-hop addition of Simcoe hops,Bell’s Hopslam Ale possesses the most complex hopping schedule in the Bell’s repertoire. Selected specifically because of their aromatic qualities, these Pacific Northwest varieties contribute a pungent blend of grapefruit, stone fruit, and floral notes. A generous malt bill and a solid dollop of honey provide just enough body to keep the balance in check, resulting in a remarkably drinkable rendition of the Double India Pale Ale style. (via http://www.bellsbeer.com/brands/)

My Review:

I remember the first time I tried an IPA. The bitterness was overwhelming and my initial thought was “This isn’t beer”. Fast forward to today and the first style I reach for when in doubt is an IPA. I only bring this story up because it plays into the one of the best qualities of this beer in my opinion. You don’t need to be a big fan of IPA’s to enjoy this beer. I even enjoy the playful trademark label of this beer that ironically serves as a warning to those who consume it.

The fun starts right out of the bottle with Hopslam. As an amber/honey color fills your glass and is capped off with a beautiful golden tinged head. You’ll notice the translucent nature of the color only adds to the beauty and it almost makes you second guess that you're drinking this work of art.

The aroma immediately dispels that second guess. You get a good mix of the floral scents and can pick up the Simcoe hops. The balance of this beer is quickly noticed here as you get hints of grapefruit, caramel, citrus zest and honey. This is the first proof that this beer has a smooth complexity to it.

As you take your first good sip you’ll hardly notice you’re drinking a double IPA. Hoppy bitterness pokes through the otherwise sweet taste of honey and malt. The mouth feel is medium and you’ll pick up a slight pine/earthy taste as the full force of the 6 Pacific Northwest hop varieties finally bless your taste buds at the end of your sip. Your final thought before going in for your second sip is how completely hidden the alcohol flavor is for 10% ABV. By this point you have to ask yourself if you truly know what you have gotten yourself into. This taste is hard to go too long without but make sure you pace yourself and enjoy the beer. If for nothing else to ensure you don’t end up like our little friend on the label.

Overall this beer rates a 100/100 for me. I know it’s almost sacrilege to give a perfect rating to anything, let alone something as complex as craft beer - but the beauty in having an opinion is that it is my own. Sure, maybe some of it plays off the fact that it is a limited release but I truly struggle to find another beer that has maintained the kind of affection I have for this beer. Let me know what you think and whether you have had it before or are tasting it for the first time.

Cheers, Hop Heads!