Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

 

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 

 

36.24 Fantasy Points

 

Patrick Mahomes put up his highest fantasy total in over a year (Week 8 of last season). It looked like the Chiefs offense got back on track, putting up 41 points and really taking it to the Raiders, the team that he really loves to play against. Going into this game, he already had more passing yards and passing TDs against the Raiders than any other team in the league (and it's only the first time they play this this year). This week, Mahomes was the top fantasy player in the league, putting up 406 yards and throwing 5 TDs, good for 36.24 points. This was his 3rd game with 400+ yards and 5+ touchdowns in his career, now tied for the all time lead for games with those stats with Dan Marino, Peyton Manning, and Joe Montana. That’s some impressive company.

 

8 Players with at Least 20 Carries

 

As the season moves on, the balance of run to pass always seems to shift to the run. Combine that with injuries and less depth, leading to fewer players to split carries, resulting in the most players getting 20+ carries all season. We had 8 players with at least 20 carries this week, and 11 of them with at least 15 carries. Having an RB who receives such a large cut of the carries on a single team is extremely valuable in fantasy football. Three players got 26+ carries: D’Andre Swift, Elijah Mitchell, and Najee Harris. Unfortunately, none of them found the end zone, keeping all of them from really having a big fantasy day.

 

9 D/ST With 10+ Points

 

It was a week for defenses to shine through. Offenses struggled - only two QBs had 3+ TDs, and only 2 QBs had 300+ passing yards. This week would have been even more underwhelming if not for Patrick Mahomes, but I digress. The defenses that scored at least double digit points are owned in 61% of Fleaflicker leagues - an ownership rate that actually isn’t that bad when you consider the top 6 only average out to 39% ownership. None of the teams in this top 9 gave up more than 17 points, so they earned their points the hard way. This, like most weeks, shows that D/ST is a position to go ahead and stream on a weekly basis unless you have one of the very top teams, and still their matchup is going to dictate if you want to start them or not.

 

33 Carries 

  

To elaborate on the rushing attempts mentioned earlier, it’s worth mentioning that D’Andre Swift had 33 carries for the Lions in Pittsburgh on Sunday in what we can all agree was the least inspiring end to a football game in quite a while. Swift’s 33 carries is the second highest total for any player in the NFL this year. In fact, he’s the only one not named Derrick Henry (33, 35) who has gone over 30 carries in a single game this season. Swift also more than doubled up his previous career high water mark, which he also coincidentally received in week 10 last year. Sunday also saw Swift run for 130 rush yards, another career high mark. Swift is on pace for almost 800 rushing yards this year, which would surprisingly be the most on the Lions since Joique Bell in 2014. The Lions’ last 1000 yard rusher came in the form of Reggie Bush (1006) in 2013, who had done it for the first time in 9 years. It’s really been downhill since Barry Sanders put up 10 straight 1000 yard seasons, 7 of those being over 1400 yards.

 

158.3 QB Rating

 

Two backup QBs took the field on Sunday and posted perfect QB ratings, but they were in very different situations. First off was Brian Hoyer, the man who has started at QB for 7 different teams. Hoyer came in during garbage time against the Browns and went a cool 3/3 for 85 yards and a TD while leading the Patriots on a quick 95 yard drive late in the 4th quarter to help pad everyone’s stats. Joe Flacco also saw action for the Jets, and apparently it was so refreshing to see him in there over Mike White that he might earn the start this week. Flacco also went 3/3, this time for just 47 yards and also had a TD. The best actual starting QB rating this week? Mac Jones and his 142.1 on the way to the Patriots’ 4th win in a row. The Pats are now 6-4, in the 6-seed for the playoffs and Jones is looking like the best rookie QB this year, though his fantasy numbers leave a lot to be desired - he has just one game over 20 points all season. 

 

 

 

Here at drinkfive, we love trends, paradigms, fads, all sorts. Of course, you're here for some player info, and we're here to deliver! We like to look at players who are trending up or down for three straight weeks and break down why they're in the spot they are and if we think that will continue. Without further ado:

 

Carson Wentz (QB-IND) - Wk 7 @ SF 20.3, Wk 8 vs TEN 20.34, Wk 9 vs NYJ 24.18: Before this stretch, Wentz had only one game above 20 points. Now he’s strung together three straight good games. He’s the QB7 over the last 3 games. The Jets pass defense is doing well this year, and he had the best fantasy game against them this year. The Colts offense is really rolling - 30+ points in the last 4 straight games. Wentz is also connecting with Pittman, he has 4 touchdowns over the last 3 games. The Colts are not on bye till week 14. They have good matchups coming up with 3 of their next 4 opponents giving up top 12 fantasy points to opposing QBs.

Damien Harris (RB-NE) - Wk 7 @ NYJ 24.3, Wk 8 @ LAC 14.0, Wk 9 @ CAR 9.8: Harris may have peaked against the Jets this year. Now he’s not practicing with a concussion. Last week, Rhamondre Stevenson had over 100 yards, got 12 touches and was in on only 27% of offensive snaps. Harris is not being used in the passing game much at all, he only has 3 targets once this year. Avoid the curse of the Belichick RBs. Two of the next three matchups for Harris are against teams giving up top 10 fewest points to opposing RBs. His bye in week 14 is still upcoming. Harris’s value is fading fast.

Elijah Moore (WR-NYJ) - Wk 7 @ NE 9.7, Wk 8 vs CIN 10.1, Wk 9 @ IND 23.9: Moore has had his share of targets in the games that he’s played so far this year, but he was really able to turn it on the last couple of weeks since Zach Wilson exited the picture. He has 7 touches in each of the last two games, and has 3 touchdowns in the last 3 weeks. Moore is still only owned in 50% of Fleaflicker leagues, so he’s definitely worth a speculative add for the rest of the season. After this weeks’ game against Buffalo, he has two great matchups against Miami and Houston.

Pat Freiermuth (TE-PIT) - Wk 6 vs SEA 9.3, Wk 8 @ CLE 12.4, Wk 9 vs CHI 18.8: Muuuuuuth! He’s had 20 targets in his last 3 games - he only had 13 targets in the 5 games before that. He was the TE1 last week, TE1 over the last 3 weeks, only owned in 55% of Fleaflicker leagues. His catch % on the year is an amazing 81.8% - he was north of 90% before his targets increased, so it’s really quite impressive he’s been able to keep it up this high.

 

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 

7 of the Top 12 QBs

 

Quarterback continues to be a volatile position in fantasy football. This certainly has not been the case in years past, but this week alone, 7 of the top 12 QBs by fantasy points are not owned in the Drinkfive league. Part of the issue is that many top guys were out with injury, bye weeks, or...other issues. Another problem is that many top guys under performed - Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes combined for fewer points than Josh Johnson. Of course, credit must go to Josh Johnson, who put up big numbers in the (garbage) time he had vs the Colts on Thursday night. Colt McCoy and Trevor Siemian also get big kudos for turning in good performances in their first starts of the season, finishing as the QB11 and QB12 respectively. Overall, the 7 QBs that are unowned in the top 12 represent just 38% average ownership (in Fleaflicker leagues) - that number also is heavily weighted by Matt Ryan’s 81% ownership rate - he’s a free agent in our league right now. So, the lesson here is that volatility can happen in any fantasy football market, including at the traditionally stable quarterback position. If you planned on streaming QBs this year and didn’t invest draft capital in a QB, you’re definitely benefiting from that decision now.

31.4 Fantasy Point Average for the Top 4 RBs

 

I’ve been pointing out the lack of production from the top of the running back position over the last few weeks, and especially how there’s tons of production from wide receivers. This week was the opposite of that - maybe they got my message? Anyways, we saw huge performances from James Conner (37.8), Jonathan Taylor (33), Nick Chubb (29.3), and Joe Mixon (25.5). This was better than any wide receiver for the week so far. In fact, the best wide receiver owned in 90% or more of Fleaflicker leagues is Keenan Allen, who finished as the 15th best flex player this week (RB/WR/TE). The top 4 RBs on the week combined for 9 touchdowns, 646 total yards, and averaged nearly 8 yards per touch. Quite the week from all 4 guys, all of whom put up their best fantasy game of the year. Final note - even after that huge week, Jonathan Taylor remains the RB2. Derrick Henry still has both more points and more rushing yards than Taylor.

3 WRs with 2 TDs

 

It was a down week for wide receivers for sure. Only 3 of them managed to find the end zone twice, and stop me if you’ve heard these names on this column before (you haven’t). Elijah Moore, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Malik Turner all found the end zone twice this week, and none of them managed to go over 100 yards receiving. I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance from any of those three - they are owned in an average of 16% of Fleaflicker leagues. Most of that ownership is probably Elijah Moore in dynasty leagues. Only 4 wide receivers did reach the century mark for receiving yards - the same number of RBs who reached that number of rushing yards. This is the first week where the RBs were able to pace the WRs when it came to games over 100 yards - usually it’s close to a 2:1 ratio in favor of the wideouts. 

17.1 Fantasy Points

 

George Kittle returned to the lineup on Sunday, giving the TE position a much needed boost. In fact, we saw the top 3 drafted tight ends finish 1-2-3 so far on the week. George Kittle was the top finisher, scoring a touchdown and gaining over 100 yards, leading all tight ends in week 9. Travis Kelce was right behind him, and Darren Waller made the most out of his 11 targets, which led all tight ends this week. This is the first time since week 1 of this season that all 3 guys have finished in the top 10 scorers. Of course, after them, 4 of the next 5 TEs were owned in an average of less than 4% of Fleaflicker leagues. This just goes to show that all it takes to be a decent fantasy tight end is that you find the end zone. In fact, 8 of the top 10 TEs did find the end zone, and the #10 guy who didn’t, Jared Cook,  at least was able to get a few points from a 2-point conversion

10 D/STs over 10 points

 

10 points is a great benchmark for your defense/special teams slot. If you can get 10 or more points, you should definitely be happy. This week, there were plenty of opportunities for you to land a D/ST that could do that for you, but only if you chose wisely. The top team this week were the New England Patriots, the team that consistently just drinks Sam Darnold’s milkshake. The Pats put up 20 points with 3 picks (one of them a pick-six), a sack, and only 6 points allowed. Then it gets interesting. If you had the guts to pick against some of the top offenses in the league, then you stood a great chance of doing well. The Browns (vs CIN), Jaguars (vs BUF), and the Titans (@ LAR) all were able to score at least 16 fantasy points for you. Those three D/STs combined for 6 interceptions, 14 sacks, 2 defensive TDs, 2 fumble recoveries, and an average of just 13 points allowed. One other crazy thing about this week’s D/ST stats - the Texans and Dolphins played against each other and both teams scored at least 15 points against the opposing offense. Truly, that was a game that should have been played on Thursday night.

 

Here's a sneak peek of tonight's Fantasy Finish Line Podcast with Dave and I. We'll discuss news, all the rapid changes in rosters in the league, and random stuff that comes up along the way. Make sure to tune in at 9pm on YouTube.

 

 

• Where do we start? First off, there’s the covid news. Aaron Rodgers tested positive, and he’s out for Week 9’s game against the Chiefs. The Packers 3rd string QB is out too, and it’s certainly possible that Jordan Love can test positive before Sunday as well. Blake Bortles was signed earlier today and spent training camp with the Packers, so he’ll slot in if everything goes haywire for the Packers. Davante Adams was placed on the covid list on 10/25 so should be cleared to return this week. Adams and Jones remain a must start against a poor Chiefs defense. Allen Lazard has been taken off the covid list, so that’s a good sign for Adams being available on Sunday.

 

• Henry Ruggs….lots has been said about him, but fantasy wise - Bryan Edwards and Hunter Renfrow should see a bit more usage, but I expect Zay Jones to be the one to get the deep targets. Ruggs was in on 65-80% of snaps, but only saw about 5 targets per game. Renfrow should see an increase in snaps as he was more of a 55-65% guy and could see a bump to his 7 targets per game.

 

• Saquon Barkley is also on the covid list, so even if his ankle is rehabbed, he won’t be returning this week. The Giants are on bye the following week. Also with the Giants, Kenny Golladay returned to practice today, and Sterling Shepard looks like he’ll be out at least through the bye next week. The WR group for the Giants continues to be a revolving door, and your decision on who to start will likely go right up to game time on Sunday.

 

• Dak Prescott is back at practice this week, it would appear that the Cooper Rush era will be put on hold for now. Michael Gallup has been designated to return from IR, but still has not been active.

 

• Calvin Ridley stepped away from the Falcons indefinitely, and abruptly, on Sunday morning. It’s always important to watch those inactives! The biggest beneficiary of this will probably be Russell Gage, with Kyle Pitts now being the primary target in the offense. I expect Gage’s snap count to go way up, and his zero targets last week to be a fluke. 

 

• Odell Beckham Jr. appears to be on the way out in Cleveland. They did not find a trade partner for him, so, considering the team asked him not to come in, he will likely be put on waivers and then cut if nobody claims him. Plenty of teams would probably take a chance on him, with the Saints high on that list, but it seems like his days in Cleveland are done. He’s averaging less than 6 targets per game, and playing less than 70% of snaps. His presence won’t be missed. Jarvis Landry will continue to be the only weekly start catching passes for the run-heavy Browns.

 

• Christian McCaffrey has been designated to return from IR, right on schedule with his initially reported timeline. This doesn’t need to officially happen until Saturday in order to play on Sunday, so keep an eye on the news. As usual, McCaffrey should be in your starting lineup if he’s playing.

 

• DeAndre Hopkins is not practicing this week. He only played in 15 snaps last Thursday night, apparently on some of those he snuck in and wasn’t supposed to be on the field. He’s one of the few players that can perform well if he does not practice all week, so just keep an eye on his status on Sunday - he does play a late afternoon game. He needs to be in your lineup if he’s playing. Kyler Murray also did not practice today, but he should be good to go this week after injuring his ankle late in the game last Thursday night.

 

• Is there such a thing as WR burnout? Michael Thomas led the league in receptions in 2018 and 2019, with a record-breaking 149 catches in ‘19. Since then he’s played in just 7 games and has announced that he won’t be returning in 2021. He’s still under contract for 2022 and will be 29 at that time. Expect the Saints to make a play for Odell Beckham once he is finally cut, or any other free agent WR for that matter.

 

• Derrick Henry suffered a (fantasy) season ending injury on Sunday and is supposed to be out for 6-10 weeks. An extremely optimistic outlook might have him back in time for the fantasy playoffs, but I find that to be unlikely at best. If you have the luxury of a free IR spot, then definitely use it. Otherwise I think it’s safe to drop him and let someone else waste a roster spot on him in the hopes he returns in Week 16 or 17 of the NFL season. If the Titans are in the playoffs at that time, they would be smart to just hold him until the playoffs start. If they are eliminated, then there’s no reason to bring him back. Jeremy McNichols stands to see a big increase in carries, and the passing game will probably also see a boost for the Titans. It remains to be seen how the Titans want to use Adrian Peterson, and how much use he actually gets.

 

• Jameis Winston tore his ACL in the Saints win against the Bucs and is out for the rest of the season, and probably out of New Orleans, practically speaking. For now, we’ll see a combination of Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian under center for the Saints. This doesn’t affect the Saints fantasy players much because nobody was doing anything other than Kamara anyways! (True - Marquez Callaway has been a flex play from weeks 3-5 but that’s about it, only putting up 3 fantasy points in each of the last two matchups).