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Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

80 Touchdowns

With 10 TD throws in his first two games of the season, Patrick Mahomes is now on pace to throw a cool 80 touchdowns on the year. Give him the MVP right now, because he's going to beat Peyton's record by 25. On a serious note, he's going to need to keep this pace up if his defense keeps playing like...well, like crap. The Chiefs D have given up 65 points in two weeks, and sure, those opponents were playing catch-up, but giving up over 1000 yards is alarming to say the least. Nevertheless, the Chiefs are 2-0 behind the strength of a historic start. Mahomes joins only Drew Bledsoe with at least 4 TD in each of his first 2 games to start the season...and also our next, magic man.

4 TD and 400 Passing Yards

The Fitzmagic is real, folks. Ryan Fitzpatrick is now the only QB in league history to throw for 400 yards and 4 TDs in the first two games of the season. Along the way, he's thrown 4 TDs of at least 50 yards or more and even put one in on the ground - all by himself! The Buccaneers season so far has consisted of blowing out their division rivals New Orleans, and then taking down the Super Bowl champs, two events that really mean that Jameis Winston will not be returning to the starting lineup in Week 4. The Bucs are one of several 2-0 teams that are a surprise, like Miami and Cincy. Unlike those two teams, the Bucs look like they could actually be the best team in their division. Finally, congrats to DeSean Jackson, who tied Jerry Rice for the most 60+ yard TDs, notching his 23rd against his old team on a 75-yard catch and run on the first offensive snap of the game.

28 Receptions in Two Games

If you own Michael Thomas in a PPR league, you're definitely happy with his two straight 30+ point performances. His 28 catches in two games are 10 more than the next closest players - a 3-way tie between Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Adam Thielen. Thomas has been targeted 30 times and he is catching everything that comes his way. He's basically the entire receiving core of the team. Aside from Alvin Kamara's 15 catches, Thomas has more receptions than the rest of the team combined (21). He's a cool 20 points ahead of the next closest WR, and is second overall in PPR fantasy points, only behind the afore mentioned Fitzmagic. He's on pace for well over 200 catches, smashing the record of 143 by Marvin Harrison. This is, of course, an absurd (but fun) extrapolation.

8.4 Yards per Carry

This year's early season rushing leader is not one that many people predicted. Matt Breida has 184 yards on only 22 carries. His usage is mostly thanks to the absence of Jerick McKinnon, but he's making the most of it. The 49ers have given him 11 carries in each game, and I expect that number to go up. They should have given him more carries in the 4th quarter to help ice the game away, so I expect his production to continue improving. His next three games are against the Chiefs, Chargers and Cardinals - all teams that have a very porous defense. Breida is only owned in 61% of Yahoo leagues, so while not a hidden gem by any means, he is a guy who needs to be in starting lineups in most, if not all leagues.

1 out of 10 Tight Ends

This season, the top 10 TEs have been the model of inconsistency. Only one of the top 10, Eric Ebron, has more than 6 points in both games this season. Most guys have one big game and one dud, not great, but you'll take it. What makes Ebron's consistency surprising is that he went into the season and wasn't considered the top TE on his own team - that belonged to Jack Doyle. Doyle has been targetted more than Ebron, but hasn't been productive. Meanwhile, Ebron has managed to find the end zone in each game and may become a favorite target of Andrew Luck, who had a good showing in Washington on Sunday. Only Will Dissly has a chance to save some face for his positional group, when he suits up tonight in Chicago.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

42.28 Fantasy Points, 3% Owned

The season has begun, and our first stat is a two-for one special. On Sunday, Ryan Fitzpatrick (or the Amish Rifle, wtf), dominated the Saints in his best game of his career. Fitzmagic (his real nickname, come on guys) put up a career high 417 yards and QB rating of 156.2. 158.3 is perfect, so, ya know, there's room for improvement still. Only owned in 3% of fantasy leagues, Fitz outscored all other QBs by over 10 points to put up a ridiculous 42.28 points from 417 yards, 4 passing TDs, 36 rushing yards and another TD on the ground. Now with his 7th NFL team (he has started at least 3 games for each of those teams), he has established that he and his magnificent beard are planning on sticking around way past week 3. This will not even become a QB controversy if he continues to play at this level.

8 minutes, 21 seconds

The clock still read 6:39 left in the 1st quarter when Tyreek Hill found the end zone for the second time yesterday. A 91 yard punt return, followed by a 58 yard catch and run gave the Chiefs a comfortable 14-3 lead that they held on to the entire game. Known as the king of long touchdowns, Hill added a 1 yard score in the 4th quarter, showing he isn't just a one-trick pony. Even if he was, it's a really damn good trick - constantly outrunning everyone on the field. We must also give props to Patrick Mahomes, putting up 256 yards and 4 TDs while taking only 1 sack and not turning the ball over at all. The Chiefs have really not skipped a beat, all while turning over their OC and starting QB.

36 total touches

In a very Bell-esque performance, James Conner had a massive fantasy game in his first career start. This may be a surprise to some, but the Steelers seemed to know they would be fine without Bell. Maybe it's Conner's talent or maybe it's the stud-filled offensive line, but this makes me wonder why the Steelers tagged Bell in the first place. Bell is a favorite of this column, and I'm not happy with his situation, but this space is for James Conner. Going in to this game, Conner had 32 career touches for 144 yards and 0 TDs. On Sunday, he more than doubled those numbers, putting up 192 yards from scrimmage and scoring twice. He and Alvin Kamara are the only RBs in the top 16 fantasy point scorers, so a game like this only makes the drama with the Steelers more complicated. If only they hadn't TIED the stupid Browns.

13 WRs with 100+ Yards

So far in Week 1, there are 13 WRs who have over 100 receiving yards, led by Michael Thomas's absurd 16 rec for 180 yards. By contrast, there were only 2 RBs who had over 100 rushing yards (Todd Gurley is a good candidate for 100 tonight). This quick view of the week just reinforces something we've said for a long time on drinkfive. Wide receivers start the season much faster than RBs. Traditionally, we find the first half of the seasons is dominated by WRs and the latter half gets taken over by RBs. Not only is this number way in favor of the WRs, but it's guys who are drafted/owned/started. Of the 13 over 100 yards, only 1, DeSean Jackson (26% owned), is under the 68% owned mark. This means that the guys being drafted are producing right away. For the RBs, 5 of the 12 backs who are 100% owned in Yahoo put up single digit (or 0) points.  Get those WRs early, turn them in to RBs later in the season. Win championship, rinse, repeat.

-7 Combined Points from 2 Top DSTs

I don't often venture into the DST territory in this column, but yesterday featured two ugly performances by top 8 DSTs based on ownership percentage. The Saints gave up 48 points en route to doing absolutely nothing else, ending with a -4 point score. The Chargers did manage one sack while giving up 38 points and finished with -3 points. This brings up a memory from a draft this year, where I was discussing DSTs with fellow drinkfiver Dave. He said that his favorite defense to draft was the Saints based on their week 1 matchup. I firmly disagreed, insisting that the Chargers were the team to own. Before you call us crazy, we only take DSTs at the end of the draft. This would feel like something to laugh off, but  6 of the other top 9 DSTs did find their way into double digits, and the Rams are on that list and can easily hit that mark tonight.

Third year WRs tend to be a hot commodity come draft time, so let’s take a look in to some past successes and failures, along with a few more of the third year guys coming up in 2018. If you haven’t done so, check out Part 1.

A quick review over last year's WRs in their third season showed a few definite successes from further down the ranks, and a few disappointments from the top. Most notably, DeVante Parker was probably the most hyped player preseason, but turned in a crappy 670 yards and just 1 TD.

Amari Cooper was the other top draft disappointment. He put up over 1000 yards in his first two seasons, and then finished 31st overall at WR in 2017. Only 2 of the 9 WRs drafted in the first two rounds in 2015 finished in the top 25 - Devin Funchess (21st) and Nelson Agholor (22nd).

The lack of success stories from last year are a bit of a reflection of a down WR year in general. Stefon Diggs did manage to finish on top of the class, but he was only about 3 points higher than Funchess and Agholor.  In all, the best that the 2015 class could achieve is the 4th tier of WRs.

There are some lower round picks that still look promising, but didn't break out in their third year. Tyler Lockett, Jamison Crowder and J.J. Nelson have all shown at least a few flashes of being big fantasy producers. Heck, even the converted RB Ty Montgomery technically counts as a WR drafted in 2015.

The 2014 WR draft class had an even bigger group in the first two rounds - 12 guys, and considerably more success. Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr., Brandin Cooks, Marqise Lee, Davante Adams and Jarvis Landry are all guys who were drafted in the 1st or 2nd round and either had a considerable jump in their 3rd year, or were already at the top and had another good season.

Sammy Watkins, Kelvin Benjamin and Allen Robinson all took a step back in their third season, but remained fantasy relevant. The pickings were slim further down the draft board, with only Martavis Bryant really generating any interest, but winding up suspended that year.

Over the last couple of years, there's plenty of examples of big seasons from third year WRs, but a lot of them are from players who had success very early in their career. A true breakout WR1 performance like Davante Adams in 2016 isn't that common, but getting guys up to the WR3 level is a very reasonable thing to expect.

This year, there's 12 guys whose chances we're considering for a 2018 breakout. In Part 1, we had the 1st round guys - now we'll do guys from rounds 2 through 4 (some of them in there are already irrelevant and have been skipped). Part 3 will cover the last 4 guys that were drafted before Tyreek Hill.

Sterling Shepard (NYG) - Shepard was the 40th overall pick in 2016, and had a pretty respectable rookie year. Unfortunately, he dropped to only 85.5 points in 11 games (7.77 ppg) last year, compared to 119.4 points over 16 games (9.95 ppg). This drop in points per game also came with an increase in targets per game (from 6.56 in 2016 to 7.64 last year).

So, Sterling went through the stereotypical “sophomore slump”, but this is not all his fault (apart from injuries), considering how bad his team was last year. The WR position was decimated for the Giants last season – Shepard missing only 6 games made him one of the more reliable WRs on the team. When he was in, his production was volatile, mostly because the team had no idea what they were doing.

In 2017, the 3 games where he had 10 or more targets Shepard went over 100 receiving yards and had at least 14 fantasy points in each game. Those were his first 100+ receiving games since Week 2 of his rookie year, so we are seeing improvement in his ceiling, if not improvement in his floor as a fantasy player. What I want to see from Shepard in 2018 is better performances in his bad games. 5 (out of 11) games under 5 points in standard scoring is going to keep him on the bench most weeks.

We move on to the biggest question with Shepard, and that’s about his team. What will he be surrounded by in 2018? Thus far, he has a new coach – the offensive minded Pat Shurmur, who made Adam Thielen into a pro-bowler and Stefon Diggs into the best 3^rd year WR in 2017. It looks like QB Eli Manning will return for another season as the Giants starter, despite Ben McAdoo’s best efforts, so this is a definite plus for Shepard.

At WR, Shepard should move into the 2 spot once the Giants part ways with Brandon Marshall, which is very likely to happen since the 34-year old is coming off of a couple of major injuries and cutting him will save over $5 million from the cap. Odell Beckham Jr. will be back and will command a majority of the targets, as well as WR1 draft status and lots of attention from opposing defenses.

I give Sterling Shepard a 50% chance at breaking out into a solid WR3 for the Giants. This reflects the Giants likely drafting an offensive player at #2 that is not a QB or WR (meaning the pick will be complimentary and not take away from his possible production). I really have my doubts that he can move into WR2 territory, but anything is possible when you have a running mate like OBJ.

Tyler Boyd (CIN) – Drafted 55^th overall (2^nd round), Boyd was taken just a few picks after Michael Thomas (47^th) and was the last WR taken until late in the third round. A similar refrain with all these WRs, Boyd missed some time in his 2^nd season due to injury and this really caused him to take a step back in 2017. Boyd had at least 2 receptions in all but 2 games of his rookie season, which made his future look promising. The script was flipped in 2017, where Boyd only had more than 2 receptions in 2 games – just the last two of the season.

Boyd’s 2017 is almost a throw-away season, but he played so much that this has to be taken into account. If you remove the last two games, he averaged just 1.5 receptions per game. The one bright spot is that he scored the game winning TD in Week 17 to eliminate the Baltimore Ravens from playoff contention. His biggest play wasn’t even fantasy relevant since it occurred in Week 17, so he was a total zero in fantasy last season.

I don’t think that Boyd’s roster spot is guaranteed this season. Ahead of him on the depth chart are A.J. Green and Brandon LaFell, along with last year’s rookie dud John Ross. I have to assume that all things being equal, Ross will be given more chances than Boyd to produce on the field and make the team. This will likely be a preseason competition, but not one to bother following closely.

I give Boyd just a 20% chance to become a WR3 this season. He would need a lot of things to work in his favor and would definitely need to pass LaFell up on the depth chart. I put Boyd’s chances so low because of his 2^nd year regression and the rest of the skill position talent on the Bengals. Boyd’s only chance is really if he solidifies the starting spot opposite Green and if Joe Mixon takes over as a 3-down player, eliminating lots of Bernard’s targets.

Braxton Miller (HOU) - Miller was picked #85 overall by the Texans, and has struggled to make it in the lineup for various reasons during his first two years. Aside from injuries, he's been a healthy scratch several times and has only played in 21 games, having a reception in only 16 of them. Needless to say, Braxton Miller hasn't done much in the NFL.

The Texans are full steam ahead to squeeze through their Super Bowl window, and this will probably leave Miller as the odd man out in Houston. I give Miller just a 10% chance of being fantasy relevant at all this season. He will probably be in an NFL camp this summer, but at this point he's probably not worth keeping around on your dynasty roster into next year.

Chris Moore (BAL) - Pick 114 in the 2015 draft by the Baltimore Ravens was Chris Moore. He's played in a whopping 28 games, which is very good for this draft class. Much of this action is due to his good play on special teams, which definitely makes him more valuable to a team - and more likely to get chances with the ball. Thus far, he hasn't had very much action on offense, but at least his career has trended in the right direction.

After just 7 receptions in his rookie year, he improved in every receiving stat over year two, though he only had 18 receptions. He did manage 3 TDs last season and his yards per reception went up to 13.8. Moore has never really been the guy, but then again, the Ravens passing game has been sluggish at best over the last couple of years.

This year, the Ravens have acquired Michael Crabtree (and not Ryan Grant) who will sit atop the depth chart. Currently Chris Moore is going to be up against first round (thus far) flop Breshad Perriman and former Cardinal John Brown for the second starting WR spot on the Ravens. Moore has the good fortune of being in just the right spot at the right time to take this starting job.

I give Moore a 50% chance of being fantasy relevant this season - not too bad for a 4th round pick three years ago. This doesn't really put him in as a end of draft flier in my opinion, but he is a guy to keep on your radar during the preseason. I'd say he has only a 15% chance at being a WR3, or someone you would want to start on a regular basis next year.

Every year, fantasy championships are won or lost by the teams that managed to hit on a break out player or...those that passed over that player. One of the more predictable paths to break out players is when a WR enters his third year. Players that reach this point have at least shown flashes of being good, otherwise they would have been cut already.

A couple of guys will be exempt from our class this year, notably Michael Thomas (NO) and Tyreek Hill (KC), both of whom finished in the top 8 fantasy WRs in 2017. They've already been breaking things - mainly records. Thomas is certain to be a stud again next year, going over 1100 yards receiving in each of his two seasons. Hill's situation may seem a little uncertain with new QB Patrick Mahomes, but the fact that Tyreek Hill is one of the most exciting players to watch since Devin Hester will not change.

So that leaves us with 12 guys that were all drafted ahead Tyreek Hill (165th overall). We'll look at their breakout potential based on past performance and their team's current situation. Some of these guys have already shown some really good things, and some of them are valuable picks that aren't working out. This is part 1, where we'll look at the first 4 guys on the list, all first rounders. Next time, we'll take a look at more third year WRs, as well as some breakouts in the past and why those worked.

Corey Coleman (CLE) - Coleman was the first WR taken in the 2016 draft - he was 15th overall. His biggest problem in his first two years, apart from being on the Browns, is that he was unable to stay on the field. He's played in just 19 games during his first two seasons. He's also, and this can't be stressed enough, on the Cleveland Browns.

The Browns are certainly expected to be a team with a good amount of turmoil, following a 0-16 season. Since coach Hue Jackson is sticking around, he's likely to stick with his very first draft pick for at least another year. This should guarantee Coleman an opportunity to produce on the team, if only for Hue Jackson to show that he can at least get one thing right.

The sample size that Coleman does have is big enough to show us some encouraging stats. First of all, he's being targeted 7 times per game, never going below 4 in any single week. He's firmly the #2 WR on the team behind Josh Gordon, so this means that he's unlikely to draw the toughest coverages. I don't see his targets average changing much to start off 2018.

Going in to 2018, the biggest worry for Coleman will be what the offense is going to look like around him. New OC Todd Haley should breathe some life into a team that only put up 20+ points four times last season. The most important role is going to be quarterback for the Browns. Improved QB play will do a lot to up Coleman's catch percentage, which is just 42.7% for his career.

So can Coleman break out in 2018? I say that yes, he can, but there's a couple things that need to happen along the way. First and foremost, he needs a good QB. I have no idea how this will happen, but if they sign a decent free agent (ahem, Kirk Cousins), then this could be a huge upgrade. This could make Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman a combination that puts up 1000 yards each. It’s more likely that they will draft a top QB, so that will take more time to develop.

 Second, he needs to stay healthy, especially early in the season. Coleman has basically missed the first couple months each of the last two years, which is a terrible way to start a career. If he plays 16 games, he has the opportunity to develop a good rapport with the new starting QB. I really hope there's a new starting QB.

So hey, it's the offseason, we can dream a little bit. If the Browns do wind up signing Terrelle Pryor, I wouldn't worry too much. Pryor would be more of an insurance signing than someone who would start immediately. I give Coleman a 60% chance to break out as a WR 2 if they sign a good QB. If not, he's probably more like 30% - in short, he (and the Browns) need help to get there.

Will Fuller (HOU) - The 21st overall pick, Fuller looks like he has a great chance at big fantasy numbers in 2018. With Deshaun Watson at QB, Fuller is definitely in the best situation of any third year WR going in to next season. The Texans are a team on the rise, mostly because their offense looks to be explosive with Watson at the helm.

Fuller also benefits from the presence of DeAndre Hopkins, last year’s #1 fantasy WR. Hopkins will demand tons of attention from opposing defenses, and should draw a lot of top coverage and even double teams. This will allow Fuller to exploit his matchups in an attempt to match his blistering touchdown pace from last year.

How great was his touchdown pace? Well, in 2017, Fuller found the end zone one out of every four touches he had. On the season, he had 7 TDs on just 28 receptions. Unfortunately, he had only an average of 5 targets per game, but with a 56% catch percentage, he is able to still be productive. Having 15 yards per catch helps a lot too. This kind of production probably means that Fuller will not slip in under the radar in 2018 drafts.

Due to his higher profile, compared to the rest of the guys on this list, he will definitely not be a sneaky pick you can get later in the draft. If you want Fuller on your team, it’s going to cost you a mid-round pick, if not higher. My suggestion for guys like this is generally to wait and let others overspend on him, but to take him if the value is right.

So, can Will Fuller break out as a bigtime receiver in 2018? I say that the chances are high that he has a successful season, provided he can stay healthy. He’s missed 8 games over his first two seasons, so he’s more reliable than Corey Coleman. That being said, he has to play more than 75% of the time to reach the WR2 territory that we’re hoping for.

I give Fuller an 80% chance to break out this season. This mostly depends on Watson being his QB and performing somewhere near the insane level that he had last year (18 passing TDs in just 6 starts, are you kidding me?). So keep an eye on him during the offseason to see how well he’s working with Watson. There will likely be a lot of hype surrounding the Texans offense going in to next year, so that may artificially inflate the ADP of everyone involved, especially Fuller – since Hopkins and Watson are already at the top of their respective positions.

Josh Doctson (WAS) - Doctson was the 22nd overall pick in 2016 and the Redskins first round selection for that year. His rookie year was a dud, appearing in just 2 games and racking up 2 receptions. Going in to last season, he seemed like one of the hot sleeper picks. Unfortunately his hype was just talk and he really couldn't get anything going until later in the season.

Injuries have been a concern for Doctson, and an obvious theme in this list. Through two seasons, he's appeared in only 18 games, after a mysterious Achilles injury early in the 2016 season kept him mostly grounded for an entire year. The encouraging stat to take away here is that he did appear in all 16 games in 2017 and ended the season healthy.

The 2018 season looks to be set up for an overall upgrade for Doctson. His new QB, Alex Smith, was one of the best in the league last year, though he's unlikely to repeat those gaudy numbers. Regardless, Smith is a guy who has learned how to make the most of a speedy guy on the outside, and Doctson will be the #1 outside target on the 'Skins with Pryor likely to depart.

Doctson has a few stats in 2017 that make his outlook quite positive for the upcoming season. Once he was back into full rotation with the offense, he was targeted consistently - averaging 6.8 targets per game from week 9 to the end of the season. He also found the end zone 6 times. With a long score of 52 yards, and a short of just 1, it's clear that he's a threat to score from anywhere on the field.

Still, there's room for improvement with Doctson. Obviously, he needs to develop a rapport with his new QB, but he also needs to up his catch %. 44% is just not going to cut it when your QB is a check-down king. He's also only had one game over 61 yards in his career, and that one was just 81 yards. He's going to be a key member of a potent passing game, so he's due to break the century mark - or maybe he's just lucky that he scored 6 times last year.

I give Doctson a 60% chance to break out as a WR3 this year. His low yardage totals have me worried, although his 15.4 career yards per reception could be the key indicator that he's going to put up good numbers if he catches more balls. I would put his chances at becoming a WR2 at more like 35%. Doctson has a lot of tools to be a good player in the NFL. I don't know if I've seen indications that he can be great...yet.

Laquon Treadwell (MIN) - 2016's 23rd overall pick is firmly in the bust category through two seasons on the Minnesota Vikings. Treadwell was the 3rd WR taken in a row - clearly a run, and anyone who's played fantasy football for a while knows that it really sucks being at the end of a run at any position. Perhaps the writing was on the wall for Treadwell all along.

Amazingly, he's been healthy enough to have appeared (or at least been on the active roster) for 25 games - that's more than any other WRs that were drafted in the first round. Treadwell just can't find his way on to the field for enough snaps to ever make a difference. Injuries to other players haven't allowed him to just jump up the depth chart, and he was never really able to earn his way into getting targets. He has just 38 targets on his career, a measly 1.5 per game.

The emergence of Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen have basically ended it for Treadwell in Minnesota. They're likely to part ways with him either through trade or just cutting him. If he gets cut, he'll probably stick with the team through late August, until final cut-downs, but don't get your hopes up.

I give Treadwell a 5% chance of being fantasy relevant in 2018, and this is contingent on him finding a new team and getting a prominent role. He's had many chances to prove himself and just can't do it. This one's a no-brainer. You're not drafting Treadwell, and because of that, thankfully, I don't have to dive into the messy QB situation in Minnesota.