Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

QB

- Carson Palmer has gotten over the shoulder issue now and is putting up very consistent points, while limiting turnovers. While it may be hard to tell which receiver on the Cardinals will have a great game between Fitzgerald, Floyd and Brown, the one thing they have in common is the guy under center. A consistent option as an every week starter or an incredible bye week replacement, if he's available.
(249yds, 3TD, 1int, week 9 @DAL) - 61% owned

- Ryan Tannehill was rumored to be close to losing his job in Miami earlier in the year. Of course that was just nonsense, and he's been proving his worth in spades over the past few games. He's not putting up gaudy numbers but he's improved on his turnovers and continues to work on chemistry with his receivers. What's really put him on the radar this year though (he's the #11 QB overall right now in standard scoring leagues), are the rushing yards that he's putting in. Over the past 5 games he's averaged 40+ yards on the ground.. bonus!
(288yds, 3TD, 4car for 47yds) - 57% owned

Palmer and Tannehill both already owned in your league? Kyle Orton (10% owned) is a great pickup that has been consistently good over the past few weeks, throwing over 230 yards and scoring at least 2 TD's per game in weeks 6-8. I hesitate to pick him up and play him over the next two weeks since he goes up against the Chiefs and Dolphins, both teams that don't allow a lot of fantasy points to opposing QB's but his match-up in week against the Jets' poor passing defense is a tasty one.

Deeper Leagues:

- Mark Sanchez was blamed for a lot of things in New York during his time with the Jets, but he is still a young quarterback that has a lot of upside. It's just as easy to blame the lack of receiving talent, coaching and playcalling during his time as a Jet. Anyway, now Sanchez is taking over the reins of a potent Philadelphia Eagles offense and he showed quite a spark coming off the bench to take over for Foles on Sunday. Since Foles will be out almost indefinitely with a broken collarbone, Sanchez is a legitimate weekly starting option with QB1 upside.
(202yds, 2TD, week 9 @HOU) - 4% owned

- Zach Mettenberger was on bye in week 9 but really impressed in his debut in week 8 against the Texans. There are a few good weapons on the Titans (Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter, Delanie Walker) for Mett to throw to and we should only see him get more comfortable as the year progresses. He does have a bad match-up in week 10 against a surely angry Ravens team though, so Mettenberger remains a wait-and-see in most leagues, only holding value in 2QB leagues as an upside bye replacement or lower-end QB2.
(299yds, 2TD, 1int, week 8 vs. HOU) - 2% owned

WR

- Martavis Bryant will score a TD in almost every game from here on out. Roethlisberger is absolutely on fire, the Steelers' passing offense is clicking and Bryant is the big redzone receiving target that Big Ben hasn't had since Plaxico Burress. Still playing less than half of the game's snaps on average, Bryant is a little dependent on the success of the offense but regardless he should get at least a few good-lucking targets in each game going forward.
(3rec for 44yds, 2TD, week 9 vs. BAL) - 42% owned

- Mike Evans has appeared to struggle from afar, but a lot of that is just the usual rookie jitters paired with poor play in general from Tampa Bay QB's and being thrust into an important role right out of college. Talk about trending up, over the last 4 games that he has played he is averaging about 5 receptions for 80 yards and a TD. Evans is a guy that you must own for the rest of the season and 39% of leagues still haven't figured that out.
(7rec for 124yds, 2TD week 9 @CLE) - 61% owned

- Kenny Britt has shown flashes throughout his career, but never seems to be able to put it all together for a long stretch of time. Who cares though, right? Fantasy Football is all about match-up play, especially going into these tough bye weeks, and the season-ending injury to Brian Quick has propelled Britt to an immediate increase in relevance. In week 10, Britt goes up against a Cardinals team that has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to WRs this season. If stars actually aligned for specific events, they may be moving around up there right now.
(2rec for 32yds, 1TD week 9 @SF) - 9% owned

- Josh Gordon's story is very familiar to everyone by now, but consider this to be just one more reminder to pick him up in your league if he is available. Gordon comes off of suspension in week 12 against the Falcons and it's almost likely that playing Gordon in your playoff run could be the difference that your team needs down the stretch. Let's not worry about his stats.. the guy is an idiot - but he's an all-pro idiot.
65% owned

Flip a coin:

Allen Robinson (41% owned) and Allen Hurns (15% owned) are toss-ups every week for the touchdown dance.. but Robinson is actually a decent PPR start on the regular. Davante Adams (13% owned) has secured the WR3 job in Green Bay and therefore is deserving of a FLEX spot each week in most leagues. Jarvis Landry (8% owned) is a secret Dolphin pick that may pay off, as he's been getting 4 or 5 receptions per game and has scored 2 TDs in the last 4.

RB

- Terrance West started the year off strong, rushing for 100 yards against PIT in week 1. His decline after that was a result of being outplayed by fellow rookie Isaiah Crowell. The problem here isn't whether Crowell or West can be productive, but rather that the RBs in Cleveland are one of these 3-headed committees that we've been seeing lately in the NFL. The Browns take on the Bengals in Week 10, who have given up the 6th most fantasy points to RBs so far this season.
(15car for 48yds, 1rec for 2yds, 1TD week 9 vs. TB) - 24% owned

- Alfred Blue has played snaps in every game so far this season, and the Texans have no problem going to him as their lead back when Foster goes down or needs to be spelled. Some beat reporters in Houston believe that Grimes may be a better talent, but the Texans have already demonstrated who will take the role over. Since Foster may be out for a week or two following the Texans' bye week, Blue is a speculative add that could provide FLEX quality fantasy production but the latest news is that Foster may be okay to jump back into the #1 role come week 11.
(13car for 78yds week 3 @NYG when Foster was injured) - 12% owned

- Ryan Mathews looks to resume his lead back role when he comes back after the Chargers' bye this week (latest news, speculative information) even though Branden Oliver has flashed with some brilliant plays over the past several weeks. It's much more likely for Oliver that he will take the Danny Woodhead / Darren Sproles type role for the rest of the year which bodes well for Mathews as the Chargers get back on their feet against Oakland's porous rushing defense in week 11.
67% owned

- Bobby Rainey should now be considered the lead back on Tampa Bay. Take this with a grain of salt, however, since Rainey has had some ball control issues this year and was not given a heavy workload toward the end of the game in week 9 even though it was winable. Still, although Charles Sims has upside, he's an untested asset and could easily falter whch would leave Rainey with the uncontested job for the rest of the season.. unless they sign Ray Rice. :P
(19car for 87yds, 1rec for 34yds week 9 @CLE) - 46% owned

- Charles Sims was picked up by hosts of fantasy team managers hoping for a miracle to solve their bye week and injury woes. Unfortunately Sims - who was just coming off of IR last week - was inactive for the game, but it looks like he'll be 100% for week 10's match-up against the Falcons. Yes, that's the Falcons - the team currently giving up the most fantasy points to RBs each week. My thoughts are that Sims will impress and eventually get the #1 job in Tampa Bay this season, but that is still quite a gamble.
26% owned

- Jeremy Hill was one heck of a play last week and now that it looks like Giovani Bernard might be sidelined for a few games, he is an every week starter on your team. He is owned in 75% of leagues though, so this is a sidenote for those of you that may still see him as available.

- Denard Robinson used to be on this list, but he is now over 70% owned and therefore past the threshold of a possible pickup in leagues populated with mildly intelligent people. Now, if you're not in one of those leagues.. best of luck with life, and go grab him up ASAP!

- Adrian Peterson is a must add this week if you have the space, because he was able to plead the child abuse charges against him down to a misdemeanor. Since he has already been out for 8 games, the NFL may allow him back to play as early as next week. We'll see how the Vikings will use him now that they have been going to the tandem of Asiata and McKinnon each week, but one would think that AP's talent would make them switch back to him immediately as the lead back.

Deeper Leagues:
Tre Mason (38% owned) could be great but I don't see him breaking free of the committee approach in St. Loiuis, Anthony Dixon (18% owned) and Bryce Brown (22% owned) are just not good enough to be owned in 10-12 team leagues, Chris Polk (1% owned) has some value as LeSean McCoy's backup, but not enough to be rostered in 10-12 team leagues.

TE

- Owen Daniels has been a consistent TE most weeks, but in the last two has averaged 6 receptions and 50 yards or more in each game. He's not going to be amazing, and only has 3 TDs so far this season, but TEs are few and far between so far once you get past the top several and the Ravens play the Titans in week 10, giving up about 9.5 fantasy points per match-up.
(5rec for 46yds, 1TD week 9 vs. SD) - 31% owned

- Mychal Rivera served as a capable TE last year and is doing the same this year for the Raiders. On track for the same kind of season (500 yards, 4 or 5 TDs), he seems like someone to avoid but his targets and redzone looks have been picking up in the past two games and Derek Carr loves him as a dumpoff target. Rivera is immediately a playable PPR TE with upside.
(8rec for 38yds, 2TD week 9 @SEA) - 3% owned

Defense / Special Teams

Ravens (vs. TEN), Cowboys (@JAX), Steelers (@NYJ), Bills (vs. KC), Dolphins (@DET), Packers (vs. CHI)

Every week there are certain surprises and disappointments that can really throw us off guard as fantasy owners and strategists. But I am a firm believer that keeping on top of these with good analysis and projecting what results will be down the line can be the difference for your fantasy team and propel you to the playoffs. Each week we'll find a couple such instances during the games and point out the important things that you may have missed along the way.

Being a Pittsburgh Steelers fan, of course I'm going to bring up what was quite an amazing performance by the Steelers on Sunday against the Colts. Despite the medicore showings that the Steelers have had in the first several weeks of the 2014 NFL season, Week 7 and 8's match-ups have shown that their offense is clicking and the defense is starting to figure out who they are. First, Ben Roethlisberger enjoyed what was easily his best regular season performance of all time.. putting up 522 yards and 6 TD's. That's just a few yards shy of the best statistical performance from an NFL quarterback in the history of the league. We know that Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown are every week plays for fantasy owners, but does this mean that Roethlisberger should be looked at as a top 10 QB going forward? He's currently the #7 QB overall in standard scoring leagues after this Sunday and I think he'll end the year at the bottom of the top 10. The only QB to have thrown for more yards than him this year is Andrew Luck. Markus Wheaton was a popular pick as a WR sleeper before the season started and is still a part of the offense, but the chemistry between him and Big Ben has yet to impress. With 6'4" rookie Martavis Bryant finally healthy and involved in games it looks like he'll move into the WR2 role in Pittsburgh which comes along with plenty of redzone targets and loose coverage opposite Antonion Brown. Bryant is immediately in the waiver wire discussion (owned in 10% of leagues but finishing as the #9 WR in Week 8 with 20.30 fantasy points in a standard league).

Tom Brady has quickly eliminated any doubt that we had about his 2014 season. True, he started out the year underwhelming fantasy owners even to the point of dropping him before his breakout game against Buffalo, but has since improved dramatically along with other key components of the offense. It has long been known that Brady's recent successes can be tied to good games by Gronkowski - and that certainly was the case against Chicago on Sunday when The Gronk scored 3 touchdowns on 9 receptions for 149 yards. The running back situation in New England has always been up-in-the-air, and especially this year with Stevan Ridley out and Bolden not being used. It looks to me like we can safely say that Vereen and newcomer Jonas Gray will be the primary options from here on out (until injury or ball-control issues, at least), with Gray taking on Ridley's responsibilities including goal-line carries. Keep in mind that Gray nearly scored a touchdown on Sunday, and if he had (along with his 17 rushes for 86 yards) he would certainly be in the discussion for the #1 waiver wire pickup this week. The real enigma as of late has been Julian Edelman: trending down over the past few weeks, we have to wonder if his role (so crucial last year to the Patriot's success) has been cannibalized by a healthy Gronkowski and the emergence of Brandon LaFell (at least 4 receptions over the past 3 games including 3 TD's, last game was 11 for 124 and 1 TD). LaFell is also definitely in the waiver wire discussion this week (only owned in 35% of leagues, #11 WR in Week 8 with 18.40 fantasy points in a standard league).

Admittedly I was down on Mark Ingram a bit for several reasons.. first, I don't like playing players when just coming back from injury and second, the two defenses that Ingram performed well against at the beginning of the season (Atlanta and Cleveland) have graded out to be absolutely terrible against running backs over the course of the year so far (giving up over 1000 rushing yards each and a combined 20 TD's on the ground). Ingram turned out to be a terrific fantasy asset on Sunday night, rushing 24 times for 172 yards and 1 TD and adding 1 reception for 3 yards. So, should we be slotting him into lineups each week from here on out? First of all, he should be owned in all leagues.. he is currently owned in only 69% of Yahoo fantasy leagues and if he is available he should be your first pickup this week without question. Let's temper ourselves a bit, though, and look deeper into the situation: Ingram is currently without any competition in the backfield because Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas are both out with injuries. According to the most recent news, both should also miss Friday's contest against the Panthers leaving Ingram with the unquestioned primary role once more and making him a RB1 for the match-up against a soft Carolina rushing defense. Travaris Cadet is an intriguing player who is also getting more time on the field now as the passing down specialist (4 receptions for 40 yards on Sunday night) but is no threat to Ingram's job and should fade back into the background when Pierre Thomas is able to resume play. The one thing that I want to caution about after all of this good news, is that the Packers were also bad against the rush.. which means that although I think Ingram will be great against the Panthers on Thursday, he still has yet to play a team of any real skill against running backs. In weeks 10-13 the Saints will face up against the 49ers, Bengals, Ravens and Steelers.. all teams that are much better equipped to stifle his production. When Thomas and Robinson return (as early as week 10), we'll also see a return to the Saints' 3-headed RB committee. What does all of this mean? Well.. play Ingram this week, but try as hard as you can to push him in a trade before his fantasy production falters in the coming weeks.

Each week in the NFL brings new surprises and disappointments to our fantasy teams. Staying ahead of this stuff is one way to forge and maintain a quality team and get them to the all-important playoffs! Here are some important blurbs along with their associated analyses that may clue you in on some important information before your opponents!

Joe Flacco secured a spot in the record books when he passed for 5 touchdowns faster than any other QB in NFL history. He may have thrown some more later in the game if it hadn't devolved to a blowout against the Bucs, finishing with a score of 48-17. Including this week's stats (21 for 29, 306 yards, 5 passing TD's), Flacco is now the #8 fantasy QB overall in standard scoring leagues. Looking ahead to his Week 7 match-up with the Atlanta Falcons, Flacco provides a tantalizing value for a QB that is still only owned in 51% of Yahoo leagues. The Falcons have consistently had one of the worst passing defenses in the league so far this season, allowing an average of 278 yards per game so far. Interestingly enough, they've only allowed 6 TD's through the air this year though.. I believe this can be explained by the 12 TD's that they have given up on the ground - seems it's no problem for teams to pass the football down to the redzone against the Falcons, and then most of them tend to run it in. So, will Flacco finish the year as a top 10 QB? With Torrey Smith's breakout game last week will the Smith & Smith combo stay productive on a weekly basis? Is Flacco a good play in Week 7 against the Falcons, or will most of the TD's stay on the ground?

Andre Holmes had a standout performance against the San Diego Chargers (who had previously had one of the league's best passing defenses and been one of the more consistent fantasy defenses) with 4 receptions for 121 yards and 2 TD's. With that game, he leads the Raiders with 20 targets over the last two games. New interim head coach Tony Sparano seems to have put a spark into the Raiders' offense and Derek Carr has been playing fairly well by limiting turnovers (though he could have a better completion percentage - last week he was only 18-of-34). The other relevant receiver from the Raiders is James Jones, who caught 5-of-7 targets for 56 yards and 1 TD in Week 6. He has quietly put up consistently good numbers all year, cementing him as the #24 WR overall in standard scoring leagues while only being owned in 38% of Yahoo leagues. The only receiver who has performed better overall while being owned by less teams is Malcolm Floyd at #20 overall and owned by only 24% of teams. Pretty impressive performances by each of them so far this season and they don't look to slow down anytime soon. Both are solid grabs on the waiver wire this week before people realize what's going on!

Knowshon Moreno just went on the IR, after apparently tearing his ACL during the game against the Packers in Week 6. We knew that he was a dicey start, but didn't catch anything about this while watching the game until it popped up on Twitter. Ouch, Knowshon.. Well, moving on - right? With Moreno out for the year (and maybe moving on to a new uniform next season), Lamar Miller will keep his spot as the Dolphin's lead back. He's been no slouch in that role, either, grading out as the #14 RB overall in standard scoring leagues with 400+ all-purpose yards and 4 TD's so far. Owned in 88% of Yahoo leagues, you probably can't scoop him up of the wire at this point but he should be an every-week RB2 start now - especially going up against the Chicago Bears and Jacksonville Jaguars in Weeks 7 and 8, respectively. Both teams are giving up over 100 yards rushing per game.

Every week there are a few surprises that make us rethink what we know (or think we know, anyway) about player and team values going into the rest of the season. Because it's so early in the season a lot can still change but it's important to stay on top of it. Let me help out with a little analysis from this week's surprises..

- Joe Flacco put up 327 yards and 3 TD's against Carolina.. that makes him the #10 overall QB in standard scoring fantasy leagues so far this year. Their next few matchups are against the Colts, Bucs and Falcons - all of which are in the bottom 3rd of passing defenses so far this year. Great bye week fill-in, or possible week-to-week starter for the rest of the season? Doesn't matter, really.. if you need him for a bye week, grab him now. Otherwise, hold on to him for the next few weeks and sell him as high as possible (this holds mostly true in 2 QB or very deep leagues)!

- Jerick McKinnon breaks out with 18 carries fro 135 yards and 1 reception for 17 yards against the Falcons. Matt Asiata is still the starter, but is averaging less than 3.4 yards a carry through the first 4 weeks. We're likely to see some sort of split between Asiata and McKinnon now with Asiata being the more desirable back on passing downs and McKinnon the clear winner between the tackles. Jerick is an athletic freak and should be picked up for upside in just about every league.

- Steve Smith may be 35, but he's an absolute stud and showed it out there against his former team. Putting up 7 receptions for 139 yards and 2 TD's delivered on his 'blood and guts' promise. I still think we can expect a slowdown toward the middle and end of the season based purely on his age but this guy is a fighter and every-week WR2 from here on out. If Flacco can get both Smiths on track at the same time, the Ravens are an awfully dangerous team.

- Martellus Bennett has surprised everyone this year but his production (9 for 134 against the Packers on Sunday and the fantasy points leader with 53 to Jimmy Graham's 50 in standard leagues) may not be sustainable. We only have to look at stud WR Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery's numbers here to see what's going on: both generally picked to be top-10 receivers in the preseason, Marshall is currently #13 (42.4) and Jeffery #22 (34.7). With Marshall slightly hobbled and Jeffery also having issues earlier this season (he looks alright now) I expect a regression for Bennett back to Earth and a boost for Jeffery while Marshall gets right.

- Cowboys look GREAT, Patriots look terrible out there.. Romo was the 7th highest fantasy scorer out there this week with 262 yards and 3 TD's. Murray is currently the best RB in the NFL and Bryant and Williams look great. Witten had his best game of the year with 5 receptions for 61 yards but still hasn't seen the end-zone.

Meanwhile, Brady and Co. were abyssmal with no one performing at their expected levels except for Brandon LaFell who looked comfortable out there and put up 6 receptions for 119 yards and 1 TD. Is the Chiefs defense back in business, or are we witnessing the fall of the great Tom Brady? He did say that he would play until he sucked.. well? Brady?

Eh, we'll expect to see him under center again this week vs. the Bengals but we no longer have faith in Brady or the Patriots in general on a consistent basis until they can show us otherwise. That said, Gronkowski is averaging a TD per game and Edelman is averaging over 6 catches per game so yeah.. keep those guys in.