To most Cubs fans, myself included, this season has far surpassed expectations. Entering the 2015 campaign, Cubs prospects like Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler, and Addison Russell formed a legitimate basis for optimism within the organization and its fan base. But the fruits of Theo Epstein’s labor weren’t expected to ripen this fast. Well, ripen they have, and the 2015 Cubs find themselves on the verge of clinching a playoff spot for the first time since 2008. Indeed, Joe Maddon’s squad has Chicagoland dreaming of a 2015 World Series birth. Unfortunately, there are two notable barriers that may block the Cubs route to the Fall Classic, and they have names: Jason Hammel and Kyle Hendricks, known together as “the shitty duo.”
As suggested, the Cubs starting rotation depth is their most glaring concern heading into the 2015 playoffs. The shitty duo, comprising the Cubs projected third and fourth playoff starters, has degenerated down the stretch of the season. Since the all-star break, the shitty duo has struggled to string together respectable outings. If the shitty duo doesn’t markedly improve its performance, do the Cubs stand a strong chance of making it to the World Series? Recent history suggests not.
National League Champion Third and Fourth Starting Playoff Pitchers | 2nd Half ERA |
2014 Giants | |
Tim Hudsen | 4.73 |
Ryan Vogelsong | 4.2 |
2013 Cardinals | |
Joe Kelly | 1.91 |
Michael Wacha | 2.11 |
2012 Giants | |
Ryan Vogelsong | 4.78 |
Matt Cain | 3.0 |
2011 Cardinals | |
Kyle Lohse | 3.53 |
Edwin Jackson | 3.19 |
2010 Giants | |
Jonathan Sanchez | 2.61 |
Madison Bumgarner | 3.14 |
2015 Chicago Cubs | |
Shitty Duo number 1 (Hammel) | 5.43 |
Shitty Duo Number 2 (Hendricks) | 5.29 |
Data Extracted from Fangraphs
A pitcher’s second half of the season ERA (“second half ERA”) is more likely to have predictive value for the playoffs than his season long ERA. As such, the figure above displays the shitty duo’s second half ERA relative to that of the third and fourth starters on the last five national league champions. Remarkably, the last five national league champions didn’t have a single back end playoff starter with a second half ERA over 4.7. Further, three of the past five national league champions had third and fourth playoff starters with second half ERAs under 3.6. Thus, the shitty duo’s 5.355 collective second half ERA has to be disconcerting to Cubs fans.
The preceding analysis provides objective value to what baseball fans already know: a team needs excellent starting pitching to get to the World Series. To rebuff that axiom, the Cubs must deliver on at least one of the following two scenarios: 1). Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta pitch nearly flawless throughout the 2015 playoffs; or 2). the Cubs produce a lot of runs whenever either shitty duo partner takes the mound. Of course, the shitty duo could decide that sucking ass isn’t what it’s cracked up to be (pun intended) and start pitching better, but that seems unlikely.
Regardless of what transpires throughout the next month, the Cubs should continue to develop and improve over the coming years. On that note, I speak for Cubs nation when I say go Cubs and fuck the Cardinals!!!!
So as I sit on my couch today to watch a potential series clinching game for the Chicago Cubs at home against the St. Louis Cardinals I am left saying “What The Fuck”! Who is making the MLB playoff schedules? This game with the most popular team in the playoffs playing against the team with the best record in baseball is being played at 4:30pm in the eastern time zone. What the Fuck? Now that would be bad enough if even one of the teams resided in the eastern time zone, with most fans still at work even on the east coast. But both teams are in the central time zone where it will be 3:30 and the west coast can enjoy the game over their lunch break.
Major League Baseball, get your heads out of your asses! The playoffs are the only time your snail paced sport is more exciting than reading Apples terms and conditions agreement, and you are burying all your games in the daytime as if it is week one of your 60 week season! You are missing a great opportunity to appeal to casual sports fans and squandering countless dollars.
It is clear to me that the season is just too too long. They are trying to rush the most important portion of their season simply because they have run out of time in the calendar year. Let me offer up a simple and reasonable solution to your problem. First, the amount of non playoff games needs to be reduced. This can be done by doing one or both of the following. Eliminate the preseason, players train year round and no longer need the time to get in shape, so it is really only useful to let young minor league players get a shot in a non typical major league situation. This year players started arriving at camp February 19 and the regular season didn't start until April 6th. Next, shorten the regular season. 162 games is absurd - lets make it a clean 100.
Now with all this extra time we will fix the post season. First off no more one game wildcard “Playoff”. Even as the season is currently constructed, this needs to be a minimum 3 games. Next, each series thereafter should be 7 games. It makes no sense to jump from 5 to 7 in the conference finals.
NO DAY GAMES DURING THE WEEK! These games are so buried that a casual fan like myself can barely tell you which teams are playing. You want your games on in prime time when you can make more advertising dollars and people don't have to call out of work to attend the games. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, give the team with the best record home field advantage in the Damn World Series! It boggles the mind that the winner of the exhibition All Star game decides home field and that it makes more sense than the previous method of alternating years. I don't give a shit if the All Star game wasn't competitive, that's not what it is about. It is about seeing all the best players in one city and having fun.
While there are several other things about the sport that I would like to change, this should be a good start. I can't promise my changes will make the game exciting, but maybe at least you won't have to worry about a summer sport having a game snowed out in the championship Series.