Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

NFL Football is back!!!  I am excited for the opportunity to share my insights, my strategy, and my bets with everyone this year through the expanding drinkfive community. Every week I will break down early week line movement for the weekend games. Stay tuned to the website for updates throughout the week, but I will give my best numbers and be clear on the bets I have in pocket in my early articles.

A couple of quick notes about myself and my betting strategy. I do not have spreadsheets, I do not set my own lines, I do not have power rankings. My strategy starts with one simple mantra, “Fade the public”. As a bettor who favors spread sports, I start with the contrarian strategy. This means I will be picking A LOT of dogs and A LOT of unders. Lines tend to be shaded to favorites, especially home favorites, and to the overs because the public loves betting on, and rooting for, scoring. Contrarians take advantage of these shaded lines and can earn extra value out of the gate with this knowledge. I read line movement for each game, analyze how heavily bet the game is, look for inconsistencies in the betting percentages and money percentages, and sprinkle in some betting systems for good measure. That’s it! That is my betting strategy! I am here to tell you it does not always work, but having a consistent strategy is the only way you stand a chance of being profitable. You can fade me or you can follow me, but at least now you know where my picks are coming from. Without further a due let’s jump into week 1! 

Pittsburg +6.5 @ Buffalo

Let me first say that I am holding out for a 7 here before making my bet. If I do not get it I will take the 6.5, but I do think a 7 may be available as we get closer to game time Sunday. I like this game because it is already one of the highest bet games for week 1. The line opened at 6 or 6.5 depending on where you look and has not moved much despite the action on this game. Both teams won their divisions last year, but the Bills are seeing just over 60% of the tickets. The buzz is on the Bills after their run last year and they are the home team so I see value in taking the road dog with a large spread. Again, Pittsburg won their division last year with a 12-4 record, they have some serious offensive firepower, they are well-coached, and finally, this is week 1 and Mike Tomlin has had a lot of time to prepare. I am going to hold off for the key number of 7 if I can get it, but I also don’t want to lose the hook so if its 6.5 or 6 I will jump on it at 6.5.

Cleveland +6.5 @ Kansas City

I’m sticking with the heavy road dog contrarian play in the rematch from last year's AFC Divisional game. Kansas City is ALWAYS a heavy public favorite so right out of the gate I like the value. Cleveland has less than 40% of the bets and while some lines have moved from 6 to 6.5 (including my book) there are other respected books that have not moved from the 6. Cleveland improved on the defensive side of the ball in both the secondary and on the linebacker corps, they’re also coming into this game 100% on the offensive side of the ball. I see Cleveland playing possession-style football and keeping Mahomes on the bench as much as possible. Again, the extra time to prepare for a Week 1 matchup plays heavily into my play here and 6.5 points is a big margin in the first real action of the NFL season.

Houston +3 vs Jacksonville

Hold your nose and take the points with Houston at home against division rival Jacksonville. You absolutely only take this bet at the key number of 3. Houston is not good. In fact, they are most likely the worst team in the NFL this season, HOWEVER, Jacksonville is getting a lot of hype for a team that went 1-15 last season. Sure, they have 1^st overall pick Trevor Lawrence and famed college coach Urban Meyer in town now, but this is the NFL. A rookie QB AND rookie Head Coach both starting their first NFL game on the road as a favorite? That is too much hype for my contrarian's heart. Even the books are juicing up the -2.5 to avoid giving the field goal away, and those books that have adjusted are making sure you’re paying extra for the key number. 

I am also watching Cincinnati +3.5 at home against Minnesota and Arizona +3 as a road dog against Tennessee. Remember to watch for late line movement before games start for last-minute value or “tells” into which way the sharp money is going. Books lift the betting limits late and that is often when you can see what side the house has liability on. Big bets don’t move lines; sharp/respected bettors move lines.

What an incredible time to be alive!  The sports betting business is booming as more and more states pass legislation to legalize and collect, on the once-taboo activity. Whether or not you’re new to sports betting or you’ve had means of betting for some time now, the fact remains that every bettor needs to have a strategy to have any shot at being successful. In that last couple of years, I would say that I transitioned from a true average Joe bettor to a more informed and strategic amateur bettor. The first step in the progression for me was identifying a strategy and sticking to it.

I don’t make a living betting on sports. As much as I would love to eventually learn to handicap and create my own power ratings, it’s not something that is in the cards for me right now. I would venture to guess that a majority of sports bettors feel this way. So what’s the next best thing?  Start your sports betting fundamentals with a contrarian strategy.

A contrarian is simply someone who “opposes or rejects popular opinion”. In sports betting this is also referred to as fading the public. I’ve been the public. The guy betting on my basic instinct and bias. Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees on Monday Night Football, how can I not take the over!  Of course, I would look at the line, but my bias placed the bet before I had even grabbed my phone. Sportsbooks and oddsmakers are very aware of public bias and they build this into their lines. Contrarian bettors take advantage of this to get more value in our picks.

Identifying public bias and understanding how the books play into this is the most important tenet of being a contrarian bettor. Favorites are a staple of the public bettors. The books build this bias into their numbers. So, let’s say a book runs their power rankings and it shows that Seattle should be a 4-point favorite, they will shade the line towards Seattle and make them, for sake of argument, 4.5 or 5 point favorites knowing the public is more often than not taking them anyway. Immediately out of the gate a contrarian bettor is getting a half-point to full point value simply because of public betting bias. The same is true for home teams. So, using the same example from above, Seattle is a 5-point favorite with the public bias computed in, if they are at home you would see this line increase even more making Seattle -8 or perhaps even higher. That is not to say that there are not advantages to playing at home, but rather that the bookmakers already take this into account when setting the number and essentially protect against the home field advantage bias. A team like Seattle could see a shade towards their home field advantage because it’s widely known that Seattle is a tough stadium to play in with the 12^th man. Notice that I didn’t even mention who Seattle was playing. Obviously, the opponent factors into the lines, but the point I am trying to make is purely to show how public betting bias plays into the creation of lines. A contrarian bettor in this fictional scenario is already gaining, at minimum, a half-point of extra value before we even break down other factors.

Overs are another popular pick for public bettors. Who doesn’t want to see points?  I will be the first to admit it is more fun to watch a shootout and more scoring, however, this is another bias that is built into the number. Much like the spread on the favorite is shaded to account for public bias, so is the over. So, let’s stick to the football examples. A matchup formula may indicate that a game total will be around 47 points. The house will shade this line to build in public betting bias and would open the line at 47.7, 48, or 48.5. Again, contrarians gain inherent value looking at unders to play because of this built-in adjustment.

Favorites, home teams, and overs are just 3 examples of how being a contrarian immediately builds value in your bets. Ranked vs unranked bias shades the lines toward the ranked team. A team with a better win-loss record may see shaded lines. Even recent games play into the psychological effects of betting. A team coming off a huge win is more likely to receive heavy betting from public bettors because that big win is fresh in their minds. At the end of the day, it is extremely important to recognize these biases and even more important to understand that the bookmakers have already taken them into account.

Being a contrarian is simply a foundation. It’s a starting point for which to build fundamentals in the way you bet and the games you bet on. It is not the end all be all, however, it does allow you to take advantage of the betting market and in many cases even capitalize on the extra value in your bets because you are fading the public bias.