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This has been a dramatic season to say the least.

While that is great while you’re watching the games on Sunday, it does make things a little difficult when filling out your confidence picks. We have had several weeks already where we are sure about maybe one or two games but then the rest are toss-ups.

This week, well, seems to be more of the same! So, now that we’re used to it, let’s just pick ‘em all right!

Week 7 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

15 – BUFFALO over Tennessee – The Bills make a move to improve their offense … FINALLY!!

14 – WASHINGTON over Carolina – Panthers fans have to shed a few tears every time they play a team with a young, high-pick QB that actually succeeds!

13 – Philadelphia over NEW YORK GIANTS – Hard to win a game at home when your quarterback apparently refuses to throw for a touchdown at home!

12 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Las Vegas – Boy it’s fun being a Raiders fan!

11 – JACKSONVILLE over New England – When are they just going to announce the official creation of the London Jaguars?

10 – INDIANAPOLIS over Miami – It’s crazy how different the Dolphins offense is without Tua.

9 – ATLANTA over Seattle – One of those “it will be exciting but you don’t know why” games.

8 – Los Angeles Chargers over ARIZONA – We all know how ‘effective’ a non-MHJ Cardinals offense is.

7 – PITTSBURGH over New York Jets – The Jets have players, but the organization is what is keeping them down.

6 – Houston over GREEN BAY – The Texan look solid. My BOLD PREDICTION is that HOUSTON WILL MAKE THE AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME … … … AT LEAST.

5 – Detroit over MINNESOTA – This would be higher up the list if Hutchinson was still playing.

4 – SAN FRANCISCO over Kansas City – This game won’t be played in February so the 9ers have a chance.

3 – TAMPA BAY over Baltimore – It’s really weird to think that this could be a Super Bowl preview…but here we are!

2 – Cincinnati over CLEVELAND – It’s the Battle for Ohio! … which is something to battle over I guess.

1 – Denver over NEW ORLEANS – Some has to win this one I guess.

Random observation here …

We have a bit of an anomaly this week. Throughout most of the season we have to deal with bye weeks. Whether it is our fantasy teams or not being able to get more points in a week of a confidence pool, we have to deal with a stretch of the season where someone won’t be playing.

This week though, in the heart of it all, guess who has a bye week … … … bye weeks!

Yes, all 32 teams will be taking the field this weekend. It’s a good thing, too – after the last couple of weeks, we need more points!

Week 8 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – DETROIT over Tennessee – No Hutchinson, no Jameson … not a problem this week.

15 – Baltimore over CLEVELAND – Would you stand in front of Derrick Henry? My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE RAVENS WILL WIN THE SUPER BOWL.

14 – Kansas City over LAS VEGAS – Well thank goodness the Chiefs made a trade to FINALLY get an offensive weapon!

13 – DENVER over Carolina – The Broncos being this high at any point in the season can’t have been on anyone’s Bingo card.

12 – PITTSBURGH over New York Giants – Seems like the clock is officially ticking on the Danie Jones era.

11 – HOUSTON over Indianapolis – The Texans lost that week … don’t see that happening too often this season.

10 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over New Orleans – Hopefully you all see why Derek Carr should get more appreciation now.

9 – SAN FRANCISCO over Dallas – Oh boy do the 9ers need this one.

8 – Minnesota over LOS ANGELES RAMS – Receivers are all either being traded or are injured … ask the Rams about the latter.

7 – Buffalo over SEATTLE – Pretty sure this win might clinch the AFC East for the Bills.

6 – New York Jets over NEW ENGLAND – I think Davante Adams is just glad he doesn’t have to play the Steelers for a third straight week.

5 – CINCINNATI over Philadelphia – This was supposed to be Game of the Week material … yet here we are.

4 – Green Bay over JACKSONVILLE – No bye week after two weeks in London? Not ideal for the Jags.

3 – WASHINGTON over Chicago – This will be fun to watch this week…and for years to come.

2 – Atlanta over TAMPA BAY – Hard to win a game when you have basically no one to throw the ball to.

1 – MIAMI over Arizona – This should go up several lines if Tua ends up playing.

Oh this is gonna be an interesting week for sure.

Looking down the list of games and there aren’t too many, no-brainers! The Bengals are sitting on the second highest line this week … … … need I say more?? So this could be a make or break week for us.

No point in delaying the inevitable any longer, let’s get going!

Week 9 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

15 – BALTIMORE over Denver – The Broncos will be crashing back down to reality on this one … … … hard!

14 – CINCINNATI over Las Vegas – It’s fun being a Raiders fan… it really is…

13 – MINNESOTA over Indianapolis – This probably would’ve been on the top line if the Colts didn’t make a quarterback change.

12 – BUFFALO over Miami – The inevitable realization of the Dolphin’s offense that Tua is back does make me a bit hesitant on this one.

11 – PHILADELPHIA over Jacksonville – It’s weird to have a game this high when I think they’ll win just because it’s a home game.

10 – SEATTLE over Los Angeles Rams – I feel like last week’s drubbing by Buffalo is the wake up Seattle needs in the apparently winable NFC West .

9 – Washington over NEW YORK GIANTS – Safe to say the Commanders are riding high after last week.

8 – KANSAS CITY over Tampa Bay – I would have loved to see this game if the Bucs had a full offense.

7 – Chicago over ARIZONA – A bounce back here after last week’s ending would show us how Caleb Williams can handle the NFL life.

6 – ATLANTA over Dallas – I see big things for Kirk Cousins in this one. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that KIRK COUSINS WILL THROW FOR AT LEAST 450 YARDS AND THREE TDs THIS WEEK.

5 – Los Angeles Chargers over CLEVELAND – I feel like the Browns got their one unexpected win of the season last week.

4 – Houston over NEW YORK JETS – To put it terms New York fans will understand – Houston is like Aaron Judge in the regular season, the Jets are Aaron Judge in the post season.

3 – GREEN BAY over Detroit – This is contingent on Jordan Love playing. Switch to the Lions if he doesn’t…or if you think he’ll be knocked out in the middle of the game again.

2 – New Orleans over CAROLINA – I want to, but its just hard to pick the Panthers in any situation.

1 – New England over TENNESSEE – Titans fans will watch Drake Maye and think about what should have been with Will Levis.

What an incredible time to be alive!  The sports betting business is booming as more and more states pass legislation to legalize and collect, on the once-taboo activity. Whether or not you’re new to sports betting or you’ve had means of betting for some time now, the fact remains that every bettor needs to have a strategy to have any shot at being successful. In that last couple of years, I would say that I transitioned from a true average Joe bettor to a more informed and strategic amateur bettor. The first step in the progression for me was identifying a strategy and sticking to it.

I don’t make a living betting on sports. As much as I would love to eventually learn to handicap and create my own power ratings, it’s not something that is in the cards for me right now. I would venture to guess that a majority of sports bettors feel this way. So what’s the next best thing?  Start your sports betting fundamentals with a contrarian strategy.

A contrarian is simply someone who “opposes or rejects popular opinion”. In sports betting this is also referred to as fading the public. I’ve been the public. The guy betting on my basic instinct and bias. Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees on Monday Night Football, how can I not take the over!  Of course, I would look at the line, but my bias placed the bet before I had even grabbed my phone. Sportsbooks and oddsmakers are very aware of public bias and they build this into their lines. Contrarian bettors take advantage of this to get more value in our picks.

Identifying public bias and understanding how the books play into this is the most important tenet of being a contrarian bettor. Favorites are a staple of the public bettors. The books build this bias into their numbers. So, let’s say a book runs their power rankings and it shows that Seattle should be a 4-point favorite, they will shade the line towards Seattle and make them, for sake of argument, 4.5 or 5 point favorites knowing the public is more often than not taking them anyway. Immediately out of the gate a contrarian bettor is getting a half-point to full point value simply because of public betting bias. The same is true for home teams. So, using the same example from above, Seattle is a 5-point favorite with the public bias computed in, if they are at home you would see this line increase even more making Seattle -8 or perhaps even higher. That is not to say that there are not advantages to playing at home, but rather that the bookmakers already take this into account when setting the number and essentially protect against the home field advantage bias. A team like Seattle could see a shade towards their home field advantage because it’s widely known that Seattle is a tough stadium to play in with the 12^th man. Notice that I didn’t even mention who Seattle was playing. Obviously, the opponent factors into the lines, but the point I am trying to make is purely to show how public betting bias plays into the creation of lines. A contrarian bettor in this fictional scenario is already gaining, at minimum, a half-point of extra value before we even break down other factors.

Overs are another popular pick for public bettors. Who doesn’t want to see points?  I will be the first to admit it is more fun to watch a shootout and more scoring, however, this is another bias that is built into the number. Much like the spread on the favorite is shaded to account for public bias, so is the over. So, let’s stick to the football examples. A matchup formula may indicate that a game total will be around 47 points. The house will shade this line to build in public betting bias and would open the line at 47.7, 48, or 48.5. Again, contrarians gain inherent value looking at unders to play because of this built-in adjustment.

Favorites, home teams, and overs are just 3 examples of how being a contrarian immediately builds value in your bets. Ranked vs unranked bias shades the lines toward the ranked team. A team with a better win-loss record may see shaded lines. Even recent games play into the psychological effects of betting. A team coming off a huge win is more likely to receive heavy betting from public bettors because that big win is fresh in their minds. At the end of the day, it is extremely important to recognize these biases and even more important to understand that the bookmakers have already taken them into account.

Being a contrarian is simply a foundation. It’s a starting point for which to build fundamentals in the way you bet and the games you bet on. It is not the end all be all, however, it does allow you to take advantage of the betting market and in many cases even capitalize on the extra value in your bets because you are fading the public bias.