Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

14.6 Fantasy Points

This week, 14.6 fantasy points are more than the RB16, Ty Johnson scored. Josh Jacobs accomplished that on one play in OT. In total, he gained 109 yards and scored 1 TD in overtime – whatever fantasy player always dreams about when their players make it to overtime. On the day, Jacobs had an astounding 303 yards from scrimmage, scored 2 TDs, and added 6 receptions. He touched the ball 39 times and he was only tackled for a loss twice, losing just one yard each time. His grand total was 45.3 fantasy points, good for the second-highest total on the season among all players. Jacobs is now the RB1 on the season and is the only RB averaging more than 20 points per game. He’s leading the league in rushing yards and yards from scrimmage. Having 303 in one game will do that for ya.

81.1% Completion Rate

Well, it’s only fair that I praise Kirk Cousins a bit for showing up on a prime-time game after I was so rough on him last week. Kirk has a reputation for turning in clunkers when he’s playing in the only game on, but that was not the case on Thanksgiving night. It was probably Kirk’s best game of the season, completing 30 of 37 passes and throwing for 299 yards, his second-highest total of the season, as well as the first time he’s thrown for 3 TDs all year. Cousins has the 4^th most passing attempts in the league on the season, which is pretty necessary considering the Vikings' defense is giving up the most passing yards of any team in the league.

145 Receiving Yards

The player who’s sure to be the hottest waiver pickup of the week, Zay Jones, helped his team clinch a win over Baltimore in a really exciting finish. The Ravens-Jaguars game featured 4 touchdowns, 1 field goal, and two 2-point conversions all in the 4^th quarter. Jones led the way for his team through the air, catching 11 passes for 145 yards and the all-important 2-point conversion at the end of the game. He caught two other passes on the final drive (5 total in the quarter) and finished as the WR5 on the week. He's only on 40% of Fleaflicker rosters at the moment, and that’s certain to shoot way up after waivers go through tomorrow night. Jones has now been targeted at least 8 times in 6 out of 10 games this season. This is his first time over 100 receiving yards this year, and only the second time in his career. He's starting to be a very important piece of a passing offense that is starting to click in Jacksonville.

76 Receiving Yards

There was only one TE this week who had more than 50% of Zay Jones’ yardage total. Josh Oliver of the Ravens topped the charts with 76 yards. He was also the TE2 on the week with 15.6 points, thanks to a touchdown late in the 4^th quarter of their game. Oliver is rostered in only 1% of Fleaflicker leagues, and he is one of three TEs in the top 10 this week who are rostered in less than 10% of all leagues on Fleaflicker. If you extend the list a little, there are 6 of the top 15 TEs that were free agents in over 90% of Fleaflicker leagues when their game kicked off on Sunday. This is only the second time all season that Travis Kelce has finished outside of the top 3 TEs in fantasy points for the week. He finished 4^th. What a bum. Time to drop him and pick up Josh Oliver.

0.38 Fantasy Points

Sometimes, a leader is hard to spot. Technically, Patrick Mahomes is ahead of Josh Allen in season-long fantasy points, but damn are they close. Mahomes has 288.80 points, while Allen has 288.42 points. That’s a difference of just 10 passing yards. Or 4 rushing yards. Hell, a touchdown would swing this wildly in someone’s favor. Both QBs have been at or near the top spot all season, and Allen really closed the gap with the best QB performance of the week in the very first game we got to watch this week. Allen threw two passing TDs and ran in another one, and added 78 rushing yards to top 30 fantasy points for the third time this year, but the first time since week 5. Allen doesn’t lead the league in any significant stat categories, showing that he has a well-rounded game. Oh wait, he leads the league in interceptions with 11 (tied with Davis Mills). I suppose that’s significant in a different way.

The number 13 has an odd aura around it.

The NFL seems to be doing its part to add to that way of thinking with some of the matchups in Week 13.

This season, Week 13 gives us plenty of matchups that are simply toss-ups. Sure, we still have a couple that are sure things and a couple that deserve to be at the bottom of the list, but there are a LOT in the middle that can go either way!

So, in times like this, we know that this is where we are going to further the gap between us and second place!

Week 13 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

15 – BALTIMORE over Denver – Russell Wilson’s contract info made the rounds on the internet this week. As a Raiders fan…it made me very happy!

14 – DALLAS over Indianapolis – Jeff Saturday seems to be learning on the job. AT&T Stadium isn’t the best place to still have to bring your textbook.

13 – TAMPA BAY over New Orleans – This is more of a having no confidence in the Saints than it is having confidence in Tampa.

12 – MINNESOTA over New York Jets – Hard to think that even a Jets team led by top-tier quarterback Mike White can keep up with the Vikes.

11 – SAN FRANCISCO over Miami – Over…take the over…

10 – PHILADELPHIA over Tennessee – Super Bowl preview? I mean, probably not, but makes it sound a little more exciting, right?

9 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Washington – This will be a solid NFC East battle…yet, somehow, still just has the aura of a game that I just don’t care about.

8 – LAS VEGAS over Los Angeles Chargers – This was supposed to be a matchup to see who would be the real one to challenge Chiefs for the division…maybe next year, I guess.

7 – CINCINNATI over Kansas City – I feel like the Bengals have been motivated by the shots I have taken at their expense. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is even after the slow start, THE BENGALS WILL MAKE IT TO (at least) THE AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME.

6 – Buffalo over NEW ENGLAND – There’s just something about this one that has me putting the Bills lower than they probably should be – follow your hunches, folks!

5 – DETROIT over Jacksonville – I can’t be the only one that thinks this could actually be an intriguing and entertaining game to watch, am i?

4 – ATLANTA over Pittsburgh – I’d like to welcome the Steelers to the world of games being decided just by who the home team is.

3 – Seattle over Los Angeles Rams – Oh, poor Rams! Literally, poor Rams – they’ll have hundreds of millions of dollars injured and sitting on the sidelines for this one.

2 – HOUSTON over Cleveland – I would say that Deshaun Watson may need to “shake off” the rust in his return to the league…but that may sound a little too suggestive for his return to Houston.

1 – CHICAGO over Green Bay – This is obviously if Aaron Rodgers can’t go this week. If the Bears’ majority owner can go, then you’ll definitely want to switch this, but still keep the Pack on the one-point line.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

54 Points

The Dallas Cowboys scored 14 more points than any other team on Sunday, putting up a whopping 54 on Sunday Night Football against the Colts. The Colts would have needed the help of all 3 other teams in the AFC South to beat the Cowboys on Sunday, and that would have only been by a field goal. One of the stats that stuck out to me about the Cowboys is that they scored so many points with so few yards. They had only 385 yards of offense. Tony Pollard led the team with just 106 yards from scrimmage. No other player had over 100. Dak Prescott threw for just 170 yards. Dallas didn’t even have more time of possession than the Colts. What they did do is score 5 touchdowns in the 4^th quarter. Helps when your average starting position is on the 33 yard-line.

29.1 Fantasy Points

Amon-Ra St. Brown had 11 receptions on 12 targets (both season highs) on Sunday and showed why he’s one of the best WRs in the league when healthy. In the games he’s not injured, he averages 17.8 points per game, good for 5^th in the league. Despite missing a game for injury and being hurt in 2 others, he’s still the overall WR7 on the season. He is a target machine, averaging over 10 targets per game in those 9 games where he’s started off healthy this season. It’s very important to get St. Brown involved early and often in games. This year he has 5 games with 8 or more receptions. While the Lions are a respectable 3-2 in those games, both those losses have come against the Eagles and Bills – two teams clearly out of their league. St. Brown is going to be perhaps the most important part of the Lions if their team has any measure of success in the near future.

34.40 Fantasy Points

Jalen Hurts leads the league in fantasy points this week with 34.40 points. He’s only scored more than that once in his career, but it’s his consistency that I’m amazed by. This year, he only has 2 games below 20 points and only 3 games below 24. Throughout his career, he has 21 games with at least 20 fantasy points, and he’s only started 31 games in his career.  Hurts is really developing into a top-tier QB before our eyes. He’s an MVP candidate this year, if not the leading one right now. He did almost all his damage on Sunday with his arm – he only ran 5 times for 12 yards, though he did find the end zone, which always helps the old point total. He’s now the QB2 on the season, just behind Patrick Mahomes and just ahead of Josh Allen. The top tier of QBs has more than 50 points on the QB5. They have truly separated themselves from the rest of the pack.

3-0 in 2022

Joe Burrow has now played the Chiefs 3 times in 2022. Twice last season and once this season now. He’s 3-0. He’s only played 3 times against the Chiefs – a perfect record against them is basically unheard of. In those 3 games, he has 8 touchdowns and just one INT, along with a rushing TD on top of that. He is especially good in the regular season, averaging 366 yards per game (thanks to an epic 446-yard performance last year, following up his 525-yard one the week before). On Sunday he completed over 80% of his passes and ran the ball a career-high 11 times. His career stats only get better as the year goes on. He’s great in December, completing almost 73% of his passes, and even better in January, so watch out. Sure, he’s never beaten the Browns (0-4) and has a losing record when playing inside his own division (5-8), but he’s taken down Patrick Mahomes 3 times, and that’s plenty for Bengals fans to hang their hat on.

27 Points on D/ST

Not just a fantasy stat, this is also a real-life stat! The Cleveland Browns scored 27 points against the Texans, none of them on offense. Thanks, Deshaun. No, I’m not salty that I started him this week. Not at all…but I digress. The Browns D/ST had an incredible fantasy day. They scored 27 fantasy points, now the high-water mark on the season after 3 teams were tied at 26 points. The Browns scored two defensive TDs and had a punt returned for a touchdown as well. A pair each of INTs and fumble recoveries capped off an impressive day over the hapless Texans, who were powerless, despite shutting the Browns' offense out.

With the league extending to 17 games and 18 weeks this season, bye weeks have also been extended.

Unfortunately this year the league gives us another super bye week with six teams taking a breather. As was said before, weeks like this are where we need to hit as much as we can. And with the roll we’re on after last week, I’m not too worried!

Week 14 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

13 – DALLAS over Houston – The Cowboys just put up 54 points at home…but at least the Texans will have Davis Mills back!!!

12 – CINCINNATI over Cleveland – It’s a little more difficult to win a game without any offensive points against the Texans than it will be against the Bengals.

11 – SEATTLE over Carolina – The Panthers don’t exactly have an offense that makes me feel they can score against the 12th Man.

10 – SAN FRANCISCO over Tampa Bay – Barely winning at home against the Saints means you don’t get to travel cross-country and beat the 9ers.

9 – TENNESSEE over Jacksonville – King Henry always seems to have fun hosting the Jags. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that DERRICK HENRY WILL RUN FOR AT LEAST 200 YARDS.

8 – Kansas City over DENVER – Remember people thinking this game would go a long way in determining the AFC West race? Not me, but other people? Remember?

7 – BUFFALO over New York Jets – Weird to think that the Bills will come out on top in this one just because they are the home team.

6 – Las Vegas over LOS ANGELES RAMS – As a Raiders fan, I was very happy to see Baker Mayfield get picked up by the Rams this week.

5 – ARIZONA over New England – This is a Monday Night matchup that will have Buck and Aikman looking at their bank accounts to remind themselves why they took the Monday Night Football job.

4 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over Miami – This is a game the Chargers should win – all depends on their defense that has not lived up to expectations.

3 – Minnesota over DETROIT – I feel that this game should be higher on our list…but there’s just something about this that makes me keep it this low.

2 – PITTSBURGH over Baltimore – No Lamar…the Steelers offense…take the under!

1 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Philadelphia – Pure “Home Team Hunch” on this.