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Normally, being just a week away from the last week of the season, playoff positions are solidified and we need to take into account that teams may be benching star players.

Not this year though! While some teams have clinched a berth, it seems that every playoff seed is still up for grabs and this is just another week!

Week 17 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – SAN FRANCISCO over Houston – Playing the Texans defense should take Trey Lance back to is Division 1-AA comfort zone.

15 – NEW ENGLAND over Jacksonville – This was the AFC Championship game just a couple years ago…just think about that for a sec.

14 – Tampa Bay over NEW YORK JETS – There’s nothing to say about this one, you know what it will be.

13 – BUFFALO over Atlanta – A home game against the Falcons is a nice reward for the Bills after a solid win last week.

12 – INDIANAPOLIS over Las Vegas – The Raiders would have a chance in this one if it were played in the first half of the season.

11 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over Denver – An AFC West divisional matchup isn’t really that exciting now the Chiefs have gone back to to their division dominating ways.

10 – GREEN BAY over Minnesota – Kirk Cousins was steadfast in his opinion to stay unvaccinated…and now it’s going to cost his team.

9 – DALLAS over Arizona – Injuries haven’t helped, but it almost seems that the Cardinals just aren’t ready to be legit contenders.

8 – Los Angeles Rams over BALTIMORE – This is just going to be a “what if” season for Baltimore.

7 – PITTSBURGH over Cleveland – In what will probably be Big Ben’s last home game in Pittsburgh, my BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that BEN ROETHLISBERGER WILL THROW FOR OVER 400 YARDS.

6 – CHICAGO over New York Giants – The Giants only viable option is Saquon Barkley and it seems like coming back to the scene of his torn ACL is on his mind too much.

5 – TENNESSEE over Miami – Yes, the Dolphins have won seven straight, but I can’t see them making it to eight straight.

4 – CINCINNATI over Kansas City – Call it a hunch but I can see the Bengals pulling this one out and gaining momentum for what could be a late January rematch.

3 – SEATTLE over Detroit – There is a reason this game is quietly tucked away in the farthest corner of the league.

2 – WASHINGTON over Philadelphia – Do yourself a favor – instead of watching this one, honor John Madden by watch an early 90’s Eagles/’Skins game with Madden on the call.

1 – Carolina over NEW ORLEANS – Looking at this Saints offense, I don’t think “enjoying retirement” is the only reason Drew Brees won’t come back.

Extra football! We get extra football!!

Unfortunately, the extra week will include a decent amount of games where we will see starters for a quarter or two. Obviously this will add a degree of difficulty for us as we make our picks – the Packers are obviously far superior to the Lions…but are their backups?

Before we get into it, I just wanted to say thank you again for following along this year! I hope I helped you in your pools this year…and I’ll see you in September!

Week 18 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – BUFFALO over New  York Jets –  The Bills get lucky with a home game against the Jets when the division is on the line.

15 – TAMPA BAY over Carolina – >>Insert obligatory Antonio Brown comment here (though the less said about him the better)

14 – ARIZONA over Seattle – Think it’s safe to say this is an end of an era game for the Seahawks – welcome to rebuilding. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that BOTH RUSSELL WILSON AND PETE CARROLL WILL BE OUT OF SEATTLE THIS OFF-SEASON.

13 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over San Francisco – The 9ers have been playing pretty solid lately, unfortunately for them the Rams are playing for the division title.

12 – Indianapolis over JACKSONVILLE – Not only do the Colts get an easy path to clinch a playoff spot, they also get to leave the cold temps in Indy and head to Florida to do so!

11 – MINNESOTA over Chicago – Just one more game, Bears fans…just one more game.

10 – New England over Miami – After such a long winning streak, its odd to think that the Dolphins are far away from contending…but that’s what it seems like.

9 – Kansas City over DENVER – The Broncos have been getting a lot of “just wait ‘til next year” talk…I don’t see it.

8 – BALTIMORE over Pittsburgh – Yes there is a glimmer of playoff hope for the Steelers, but I think they left everything on the field last week.

7 – Tennessee over HOUSTON – This one may be one of those games we talked about depending on who Tennessee plays, but I still just cant see a Texans win.

6 – ATLANTA over New Orleans – David Banner mentioned watching the Falcons play the Saints in one of his songs…that’s about as excited as I can get on this one.

5 – PHILADELPHIA over Dallas – Just seems like another last week of the season game the Cowboys blow in Philly.

4 – Cincinnati over CLEVELAND – Really think the Bengals could play 22 backups and could beat the Browns right now.

3 – Los Angeles Chargers over LAS VEGAS – Yes, there is a part of me that is picking the Chargers thinking that it will help the Raiders win…seems to be how my Raider picks have been going lately.

2 – NEW  YORK GIANTS over Washington – Normally, picking the Giants to win is a solid choice for the one-point line…except when…

1 – DETROIT over Green Bay – …you think the Lions will beat the Packers. Green Bay has already locked up home-field in the playoffs, so the Lions get to play backups.

Like any rookie class, it behooves all of us to take a deeper look into who we're dealing with as our drafts get nearer. Basically, do your homework! Today, we'll look at the top 10 rookies, according to Dave's rankings (go to the RK section for these guys). We asked ourselves a few questions, like: What is their landing spot like? What kind of impact can they have in the early/late season? What does their spot on the depth chart currently look like? 

For an in-depth discussion, check out our first podcast of 2022, where we go over these guys in depth, as well as the top 10 ADP players.

Rank - Player Name (POS-TEAM) - Rookie ECR Rank (Difference between ours and ECR)

1 - Breece Hall (RB-NYJ) - ECR 1 (0) - Hall was selected as the 36th pick overall and the 1st RB drafted. He is a workhorse-type RB that should take over 50% of the team’s workload this year and that transition should happen quickly, if not immediately. Sorry, Michael Carter fans. Of all the RBs from this class, Hall has the clearest path to finishing as a top 10 scorer at the position. During his three years at Iowa State, Hall was a great pass catcher – in 2021 he caught 36 balls for 302 yards and 3 TDs. The Jets’ running backs had a total of 15 drops recorded in the 2021 season, more than any other group of RBs in the league. He has also been praised for his pass protection ability and should enter the NFL as an average to above average pass-blocker – not something that every starting RB can say about themselves. Again, the Jets’ RBs allowed 15 pressures last season (4 of which were sacks), both of those stats tying for 2nd most at the position. A big play RB for Iowa State, he maximizes good blocking to create huge plays (3 rushes over 70+ yards last year, for example). PFF rates the Jets’ offensive line at #13 this season and one could argue a case for them even being a little higher in the rankings – all of this proves that there will be opportunities created for Hall this year… the Jets got their guy, and he should put up RB1 numbers from early on in the season. Week 1 against the Ravens will be a test, though!

2 - Drake London (WR-ATL) - ECR 2 (0) - London was taken by the Falcons with the 8th overall pick in this year’s draft, and was the first fantasy/skill player taken. Drake has a good chance to make an impact as a rookie, but he will be limited by the fact that the Falcons are rebuilding. The Falcons returning WRs had just 31 receptions from last year, all of them from Olamide Zaccheaus. This is basically an entirely new WR group. While he may slot in as the WR1 as early as the start of the season - he will still have to contend with Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson for touches. It’s certainly feasible that he leads the team in targets by the end of the year. He averaged 14.8 targets per game at USC last season. Drake and the Falcons will be limited with Marcus Mariota as their starting QB - I suspect they will go shopping for an early first round QB in the 2023 draft unless Mariota far exceeds expectations.

3 - Ken Walker III (RB-SEA) - ECR 5 (+2) - Walker was drafted with the 41st overall pick from Michigan State. With Chris Carson retiring from the NFL yesterday after undergoing neck-fusion surgery in December of last year, the RB depth chart in Seattle has Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Walker firmly entrenched at the top. Without Russell Wilson’s dual-threat abilities - which limited options for defenders - and considering their league-worst offensive line (according to PFF) the offense will struggle mightily. But even low scoring teams have to start some kind of offense - and whether that offense is led by Geno Smith, Drew Lock, or even Jimmy Garropolo, it will be a primarily rushing offense that coach Pete Carroll brings back onto the field in 2022. Walker led the nation last year with over 1,000 yards after contact, and could absolutely end up as the primary back in Seattle later this season, but that’s only likely to happen if Rashaad Penny is unable to maintain his position as the starter. Penny led all RBs in production over the last stretch of 2021, running for over 700 yards in the last 6 games. He has had injury concerns and issues in the past though, and signed a one-year contract earlier this year to keep him with the Seahawks but only until 2023. It’s reasonable to project, then, that whoever the starter in Seattle is will have at least low-end RB2 value based purely on volume, and that it could be Walker that ends up closing the year with that title. 

4 - Garrett Wilson (WR-NYJ) - ECR 4 (0) - Garrett Wilson was the second fantasy/skill player off the board this year, going 10th overall to the Jets. Wilson came from an Ohio State team littered with elite talent - his teammate Chris Olave went right after him at 11. In New York, he will not have the same advantage that Drake London has in joining a room with barely any returning talent. The Jets will have Elijah Moore leading the way, along with other WRs who combined for over 130 receptions last year returning in 2022. Wilson will have to be brought along slowly, and is more likely to shine late in the year, if he is to shine at all in his rookie season. It remains to be seen if Zach Wilson can be an elite QB and support multiple legit fantasy threats. Fortunately for Garrett Wilson, we do know that he can put up big numbers on a team with other elite talent around him.

5 - Treylon Burks (WR-TEN) - ECR 3 (-2) - The number 18 overall pick in the draft has already been put through the ringer by sports media. I think it’s fun for them. Here are the important things to remember about Burks: 1. The Titans traded A.J. Brown because they could draft Burks as their WR1 of the future. They were already sold on him. 2. There was a lot of noise over the past several weeks about issues with asthma and conditioning, but the latest reports are already talking about big plays during practice and there have been no issues with conditioning tests leading up to training camp. Burks is a big bodied (6’2”, 220 lbs) receiver that makes both acrobatic and contested catches. He has been compared to both A.J. Brown and Mike Evans in his play style. He put up over 1100 yards and 11 TDs last year for Arkansas, and accounted for the majority of their offense. It seems likely that Burks will be selected too early in redraft leagues, however, since it may take some time for him to get up to speed with the Titans offense, the recently acquired Robert Woods is likely to suck up the majority of the targets (at least for this season), and Derrick Henry and the ground game should still continue to be the team’s focal point.

6 - Jameson Williams (WR-DET) - ECR 6 (0) - Williams was picked 12th overall by the Lions, despite having torn his ACL in the CFB Championship game back in January. He is a big play guy who had the fifth most receiving yards in the nation last year, 79 rec, 1572 yds, 15 TD. I like this landing spot in Detroit because he will be able to bolster what has developed into a solid WR group. Amon-Ra St. Brown’s emergence as a top WR threat late last year was impressive, and shows some promise for the Lions, despite having Jared Goff as their starting QB still. Goff has not shown any aptitude for throwing the deep ball. He was 27th among 33 qualifiers for yards per attempt with 6.6, and dead last among qualifiers for intended air yards per attempt at 6.4. This measures the average depth of target. The point I’m getting at here is that Jared Goff does not throw the ball down the field, so Williams will need to make his big plays by breaking away after the catch. While I like the landing spot so that he is not the sole focus of the defense when he’s on the field, the Lions really could stand to have an upgrade at QB to get the most out of their WRs. I do not expect Williams to have any early season impact due to his ACL tear - he isn’t expected to be back until October at the earliest. He is a candidate for a late season breakout, so he can be a good waiver wire pickup once he returns to action. I do not recommend drafting him in any but the very deepest redraft leagues.

7 - Chris Olave (WR-NO) - ECR 7 (0) - Olave, out of Ohio State, was chosen 11th overall by the New Orleans Saints. They basically traded picks 98, 101, and 120, a 2023 first-rounder, and a 2024 second-rounder in order to select Olave. Not a receiver that gets a lot of yards after the catch, but he has sub 4.4 40-yard dash speed, good size at 6’, 185 lbs, and has been considered to be the best pure route runner in this class of WRs. He finished his college career as the Big Ten’s 4th leading touchdown receiver of all time. Looking at the latest footage of Michael Thomas back at practice and seeing the Saints acquire veteran slot receiver Jarvis Landry earlier this year puts a damper on hopes that Olave could become a primary target in this offense for 2022. But that’s ok - he should be looked at as the WR2/3 on an unpredictable offense that could spread the ball around a lot depending on the health of Michael Thomas over the course of the season. Olave should have more of a late-season impact after we see what shakes out in New Orleans over the first half of the season, but if Thomas or Landry are not up to snuff early on, Olave will immediately slot in as a solid WR2 for the Saints.

8 - Christian Watson (WR-GB) - ECR 9 (+1) - Watson was chosen by the Packers with the 34th overall pick. This is the highest that the Packers have chosen a WR in the Aaron Rodgers era (other notables, Jordy Nelson (36), Randall Cobb (64), Davante Adams (53)). Watson comes with high expectations and a very high ceiling for his overall performance. He, unfortunately, landed on the PUP list with a still unknown injury. If he’s limited through training camp and the preseason, this will put a huge damper on his rookie season possibilities. Rodgers is not one to typically light up a rookie with targets - 38 receptions is the most any rookie has had with him. However, the Packers lost 224 targets from last year, so someone has to be there to catch the ball. As of now, there’s no indication that Watson will miss any game time, so he has the potential for action early on, but I wouldn’t count on anything significant until later in the year, if at all. He will need to pass Randall Cobb on the depth chart (a favorite of Rodgers), in order to see serious weekly fantasy relevance. This is a fantastic landing spot for dynasty purposes, however, and I think his next couple of seasons could be huge.

9 - Skyy Moore (WR-KC) - ECR 8 (-1) - Kansas City selected Moore in the 2nd round (54th pick overall) as the 13th WR off the board. With Tyreek Hill high-tailing it out of Kansas City for a big contract in Miami, the Chiefs have been gobbling up receivers like JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdez-Scantling, and already rostered Mecole Hardman (who was the 56th pick in the 2019 draft). Moore put up 94 catches for 1283 yards and 10 TDs last year at Western Michigan, and would have presumably put up bigger numbers prior to that except he was behind Seahawk receiver Dee Eskridge on the depth chart. An outside receiver with 4.41 speed, Moore is slighter of build (5’10”, 195 lbs) than the recent WR additions to the team - and profiles very similarly to Hardman. It’s hard not to see this as one more attempt to find a quick outside target for Mahomes and we will likely see Moore cannibalize snaps from Hardman as his chemistry with the long-armed QB is put to the test throughout the season. From a redraft perspective Moore is a dangerous pick that may not pan out at all this season. It is a great landing spot for a receiver, though, so who can fault the gambler for rolling the dice in hopes for a great return? Not me.

10 - Jahan Dotson (WR-WAS) - ECR 10 (0) - Dotson was chosen 16th overall by the Washington Commanders and has been getting heaps of praise so far during OTAs from his coaches. With Terry McLaurin holding out until the end of June, Dotson got lots of reps with new Commanders QB Carson Wentz. This landing spot is good for Dotson because he is in line to start opposite McLaurin in Week 1. Dotson was in the top 20 in receiving yards his senior year, putting up 91 rec for 1182 yards and scoring 12 TDs. Dotson appears to be one of the rookie WRs that is best poised to step into a fantasy relevant role early in the season. He’s on a team where he’s being inserted near the top of the depth chart, this team has a new QB - which means basically a new offense. He’s starting at the ground floor. I expect him to have growing pains like any rookie, but it’s a great spot and he’s a good candidate for early season success, unlike many other rookies.

Guess who’s back! Back again! Um…well…it’s me!

More so than that, it’s football!

It’s safe to say that college football got us primed with the amazing game and finishes we had last weekend. But…I mean…come on! There’s nothing like Week 1 of the NFL Season!

I don’t know about you, but seven months is LONG enough, let’s get back at it!

Week 1 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – TENNESSEE over New York Giants – I don’t think the Giants will be AS bad as it looks like they could be…but they’ll look pretty bad in Nashville on Sunday.

15 – CINCINNATI over Pittsburgh – Welcome back to starting NFL games, Mitch Trubiski! Your prize is a road game against the defending conference champs.

14 – WASHINGTON over Jacksonville – Enjoy it Commander fans, can’t see your team this high on a confidence pool much this year. Well…not as the winner.

13 – Baltimore over New York Jets – Safe to say that Lamar Jackson will be playing like he wants someone to pay him.

12 – Indianapolis over HOUSTON – The Texans might be building a bit of an underrated future for themselves…unfortunately for them Jonathan Taylor will probably run for over 200 yards in the very near present.

11 – CAROLINA over Cleveland – This has to feel like the Super Bowl for Baker Mayfield.

10 – MINNESOTA over Green Bay – I’m not ignorant enough to say Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will have a horrible offense without Davante Adams – but there will be a little “feeling out” period with the new WR group.

9 – MIAMI over New England – Tyreek Hill should be able to provide a decent amount of false hope for Dolphins fans after this one.

8 – DALLAS over Tampa Bay – Heads up, Cowboy fans are going to be insufferable after this one.

7 – ATLANTA over New Orleans – …aaaaand we have our “This game is being playing because it’s on the schedule” level of excitement game of the season.

6 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Buffalo – Last year’s champs start the season hosting what could be our Super Bowl matchup this year. This isn’t a gambling piece but the Rams are currently the underdogs (+2)…just something to keep in mind.

5 – Las Vegas over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS – Those who think this outcome will be different than the epic that ended the 2021 season because of home field advantage for the Chargers haven’t seen the Raider Nation take over San Diego/LA.

4 – Kansas City over ARIZONA – The Chiefs offense will take a hit after losing their top receiver…but so will the Cardinals.

3 – Denver over SEATTLE – Yes, Russell Wilson will beat his old team - but with all the hype around the Broncos, my BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE BONCOS WILL FINISH LAST IN THE AFC WEST.

2 – DETROIT over Philadelphia – Yeah I’ll accept that this is just a Hard Knocks Hype pick.

1 – CHICAGO over San Francisco – It’s sad to say that the Bears will be a team this year that if you think they’ll win, don’t put them too much higher than the one-point line.