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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve finally arrived at the week we’ve been waiting for – Championship Week! Hopefully your squads have survived the rigors of the season, and the multitude of injury and Covid-19 absences in recent weeks to make it this far. Hopefully you didn’t get Tee Higgins’d, or Justin Jackson’d or Rex Burkhead-ed last weekend. Week 16 served as a valuable reminder that it doesn’t matter what your team did for the first 15 weeks of the season. What matters is what they do this week. Don’t completely throw caution to the wind and bench your best players, but don’t be afraid to think a little outside the box this week.

I want to emphasize, this week of all weeks, not to take the headers below as gospel. Please consider your league rules and what your roster looks like when applying any of the advice below. Don’t start Rhamondre Stevenson over a back like Ronald Jones or Chase Edmonds, or Amon Ra-St. Brown over receivers like Michael Pittman or Brandin Cooks just because I said I’d lean towards starting them. Put it in the context of your team and make the decision that makes the most sense for your roster.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game numbers and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 17…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 17: vs. Cle.): The Browns aren’t a great matchup for running backs, allowing the 10^th-fewest running back points per game, but Najee has scored a dozen or more fantasy points in 12 of his 15 games this season, including 19.5 points in his first meeting with the Browns. He has to be in your lineup this week if you have him.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 17: vs. KC): Chase got back on track in week 16 with his first 100-yard game since October, and that should give you the confidence you need to fire him up Sunday. The Chiefs aren’t a pushover on defense, allowing the 11^th-fewest WR points per game and ranking 13^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat, but they’re hardly a matchup to run away from. The Bengals have been more pass-heavy in recent weeks (Joe Burrow has averaged 35.5 attempts in the last 4 weeks after averaging 30.8 prior to that), and they’ll likely have to throw in this one as 5-point underdogs. We’ve seen that the floor isn’t as rock solid as we’d like with Chase, but few WRs can match his ceiling.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 17: @Ten.): Since Tua returned from IR in week 6, Waddle is the PPR WR7. He’s tallied 7+ receptions in 7 of 9 games in that stretch, and 60+ receiving yards in 8 of 9. He hasn’t flashed week-winning upside often, but he should be as safe as it gets facing a Titans’ defense that allows the 2^nd-most WR points per game.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 17: vs. Hou.): Lance is in line to make his second start of the season with Jimmy Garoppolo battling a thumb ailment, and he gets a reasonable matchup in the Houston Texans. The Texans have been playing better defense in recent weeks, holding 4 of the last 7 QBs they’ve faced below a dozen points, but for the season they’ve allowed the 15^th-most QB points per game and rank a middling 15^th in pass defense DVOA. Lance’s rushing ability also gives him a built-in floor that those other QBs the Texans limited didn’t have. The Texans have allowed the 2^nd-fewest QB rushing yards per game, which sounds daunting for Lance...but in the two games where Lance has seen extended playing time, he ran for 41 yards in one half against the defense that allows the 4^th-fewest QB rushing yards (Seattle), and for 89 yards against the defense that allows the 12^th-fewest QB rushing yards (Arizona). Designed runs will be a part of the game plan, and I expect Lance to put up the highest QB rushing total the Texans have allowed this season (their current high is 41). I’d view Lance as a low-end QB1 this week, and he could finish as a high-end QB1 if he has an efficient passing day.

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 17: vs. Jax.): I’d only lean towards playing Jones in 2-QB and Superflex formats, but the Jaguars have proven easier to attack through the air than on the ground this season. Blowout losses have limited how much passing volume the Jaguars have faced, but QBs have still done some damage with that limited volume. 6 of the last 9 QBs they faced threw for fewer than 200 yards, but 4 of those 6 QBs still put up 15+ fantasy points. The Jaguars rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA and a middling 16^th in run defense DVOA. The Patriots are favored by 16.5 points, so this one very well could get out of hand and have the Pats running for much of the 2^nd half, but I like Jones’ chances to make an impact before it’s too lopsided. A 200-yard, 3-score kind of game is what you’re hoping for here.

QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 17: @SF): It feels like only yesterday that twitter was cracking jokes about Mills’ weirdly long giraffe neck, but his play on the field over the last couple months should have them talking about him for a different reason. In his last 4 starts, Mills has averaged 276 passing yards per game, and racked up a 7 to 2 TD:INT ratio, and he’s finished as a top-15 fantasy QB in every one of those weeks. All 4 of the defenses he faced in those games have allowed fewer QB points per game this season than the 49ers. Mills isn’t going to go out and drop 25+ fantasy points in championship week. He doesn’t have that kind of big ceiling, but he’s a much safer QB2 option than you might realize.

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 17: vs. Hou.): Mitchell seems to be trending in the right direction to play this week, and coach Kyle Shanahan is quoted as saying “We’ll play Elijah as much as he can handle.” The 49ers are likely to run the ball as much as they can against a Houston defense that ranks 26^th in run defense DVOA and allows the 4^th-most running back points per game, and the threat of QB Trey Lance running the ball could make it even easier for Mitchell to find space to run. There’s obvious baked-in risk here since Mitchell has missed the last 3 games and could be eased in, but the upside in this matchup is big if he sees 15+ touches. I’d treat him as an upside RB2 in championship week.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 17: vs. Jax.): If you read about Mac Jones above, you know that the Patriots are more than a 2-touchdown favorite in this game, and that should mean a lot of Rhamondre and Damien Harris. The Jaguars have been an average run defense, ranking 16^th in run defense DVOA, but Stevenson should see plenty of volume in a one-sided game. Stevenson has handled 10+ carries in 5 of the last 6 games he’s played. He topped 60 rushing yards in 4 of them and seems a sure bet for 10+ carries again this week. I wouldn’t treat him as a surefire top-20 play this week, but if you’re searching for a flex play, Stevenson is a player I like this week. If you do plan to start him, keep an eye on reports from the Pats to make sure he isn’t suffering any ill effects from his bout with Covid. If he’s good to go, he’s a strong flex play/RB3.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 17: @Sea.): ARSB has already shown us that he can produce without Jared Goff under center, posting a 9-91-1 receiving line with Tim Boyle under center last week. I’m not going to be the one to bet against him keeping it up just because D’Andre Swift is back. St. Brown has seen 11+ targets in 4 straight games and faces a defense this week that ranks 28^th in pass defense DVOA. Swift will likely cut into his target share a little bit, but he’s likely going to be in the range of 7-9 targets against this defense, which is enough to make the Sun God an upside PPR WR3 again this week.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 17: @Was.): Smith has shown us the peaks and valleys that come with being the WR1 in a run-heavy offense over the last two months. Devonta’s played 8 games since the Eagles’ philosophical shift to running the ball happened. He scored over 17 fantasy points in 3 of them, and fewer than 6 points in 4 of them, including in the first meeting with Washington. That same boom-or-bust element applies in week 17, but I like Smith’s chances at greatly improving on the 3-40 line he posted against Washington two weeks ago. In that game, Washington was missing key pieces of their front 7 due to Covid, and the Eagles were able to have their way with them on the ground, running for over 6 yards per carry with their running backs. Most of those Washington defenders are now back, and the Eagles will be playing without Miles Sanders and possibly without Jordan Howard (the two backs who piled up those yards). I don’t expect Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell to have the same success running the ball this time around against a defense that ranks 15^th in run defense DVOA. That means increased passing volume against a defense that allows the 3^rd-most WR points per game. I think Smith posts a double-digit point performance Sunday.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 17: vs. TB): You probably aren’t considering Wilson anyway, but Tampa has allowed the 9^th-most QB points per game and have already ruled out two of their top pass rushers for this week (Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaquil Barrett). Wilson also flashed some running ability last week against the Jaguars. There are reasons to think he’s a sneaky QB2 play this week despite being a 2-touchdown underdog. I just want to remind you that it’s not worth the risk in championship week. Wilson has thrown for 230+ yards just twice all year, run for 20+ just twice all year, and accounted for multiple TDs just 4 times in 11 starts, and the Bucs rank 4^th in pass defense DVOA. It would be a huge roll of the dice to trust Wilson in championship week.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 17: @LAC): With Drew Lock under center, the Broncos’ run game cratered last week as the Raiders were able to focus on stopping Williams and Melvin Gordon. Williams posted 12 yards and a score on 7 rushes while Gordon ran 7 times for negative-4 yards. The matchup is better this week against a Chargers’ defense that ranks dead last in run defense DVOA, but the Denver passing game will offer even less of a threat this week with Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick sidelined by Covid, and Williams is battling through a knee injury that may have contributed to his poor performance last week. There’s plenty of upside here as the Chargers allow the 3^rd-most RB points per game, but I’d rather rely on a more trustworthy option with my season on the line this week.

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 17: vs. TB): Carter returned from IR last week and handled a 74% snap share and 19 touches in a strong performance against the Jaguars. The sledding gets much tougher this week against Tampa Bay. Carter should again handle most of the backfield work, which puts him very much in play as an RB2 or RB3 this week, but Tampa has allowed the 3^rd-fewest rushing yards this season and ranks 11^th in run defense DVOA. They’ve been vulnerable to backs in the passing game, allowing nearly 7 receptions per game to backs, but Carter hasn’t been targeted by Zach Wilson more than 3 times in any game this season. All of his best receiving efforts happened while Wilson was sidelined. Counting on garbage time receiving work for Carter seems like an ill-advised strategy in championship week.

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 17: @NO): Hubbard has averaged just 8 carries and fewer than 1 target per game in the last 3 weeks, and this week faces a defense that ranks 1^st in run defense DVOA and allows the fewest running back points per game. He’ll continue to operate as the lead back on early downs, but even if the Panthers are more competitive this week and Hubbard gets more carries, there’s no guarantee he’s more successful with those carries or that he won’t get vultured by Cam at the goal line. I wouldn’t count on double-digit points for Chuba.

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 17: vs. LAR): Bateman has been playing an every down role the last two weeks, and the Ravens are underdogs and should be throwing against a middling Rams’ WR defense (they allow the 15^th-fewest points per game to the position). Despite that, I’d steer clear of him in your championship matchups. There’s a possibility Sammy Watkins sees more work this week in his second game back from the Covid list, and Bateman has really only had one productive quarter in his last 5 games. He tallied 5 receptions for 79 yards in the 4^th quarter of a furious comeback attempt against the Browns in week 14. Outside of that quarter, he’s totaled 11 catches, 115 yards, and 1 touchdown in the last 5 games. Of course, there’s upside for him here if the Ravens fall behind and have to throw, but a 4-30 kind of game is just as likely (if not more likely) than an 80+ yard day.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 17: @SF): Collins has come on a bit in recent weeks, with double-digit PPR points in two of his last 3 games, but his production hasn’t been consistent enough to trust him this week with your season on the line. The 49ers do allow the 9^th-most WR points per game, but Brandin Cooks is easily the WR1 in this offense that has thrown the ball 30 or fewer times in 5 of their last 6 games. It’s possible the Texans fall in a hole and have to throw a bit more in this one (they’re 12.5-point underdogs), but I like their chances to stay within striking distance as Trey Lance makes just his 2^nd NFL start. Despite Collins’ recent increased workload, he’s reached 35+ receiving yards just once in the last 7 games.

WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 17: vs. Den.): Palmer was a great streamer play in two of the last 3 weeks while the Chargers battled Covid issues in their wide receiver room. He posted 15+ PPR points in week 14 and week 16, but both Mike Williams and Jalen Guyton have been cleared to return this week. We’ve seen a trend of players coming off the Covid list getting their workload dialed back a bit, so Palmer could still see extended playing time, but the Broncos allow the 8^th-fewest WR points per game. The matchup isn’t good, and Palmer’s floor is basically non-existent if Williams and Guyton get their usual workloads.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 17: vs. Cle.): Freiermuth is expected back this week, and you know what to expect from him if he plays. He’s going to probably have 3-4 receptions for 30-40 yards, and he may or may not find the end zone. It’s that last part that will determine if he was a good play or not. Freiermuth has found the end zone in 6 of the last 9 games he’s played, including in the first meeting with these Browns, but many of the TDs the Browns have allowed to tight ends have been to elite players at the position. Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews have accounted for half of the 8 TDs the Browns have allowed to tight ends. Ultimately, if you’re projected to win your matchup this week and just need floor production from the position, Freiermuth is probably fine, but he doesn’t provide much upside beyond 15 or so PPR points. He’s a low-end TE1 this week.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 17: @Buf.): You might not have a better option on your roster but be warned that this is a dangerous matchup for Pitts. The Bills allow the 3^rd-fewest tight end points per game and have only allowed 2 tight ends all season to score as many as 9 fantasy points (Logan Thomas and Travis Kelce). Pitts’ volume should be there. He’s been targeted 6+ times in all but two games this season, but tight ends with 6+ targets against Buffalo have averaged just 7.7 fantasy points against them. Pitts is still a low-end TE1 play based on his volume and role in the offense, but the floor here is lower than usual.  

TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 17: @SF): Jordan has carved out a nice chunk of the Texans passing game for himself in recent weeks despite serving as the team’s TE2 behind Pharaoh Brown. Over his last 4 games, he’s totaled 18 targets, 13 receptions, 112 yards and 2 TDs and been the TE14 over that span. I don’t see this as a week where he exceeds that rank. The 49ers have allowed the 6^th-fewest TE points per game. They’ve allowed just 3 tight ends to exceed 40 receiving yards against them all year and haven’t allowed a tight end touchdown since week 10. Jordan is a TD dart throw that I’d bet against scoring a TD this week.

TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): Bates has functioned as Washington’s starting tight end for about a month now, and he faces off with the worst TE defense in the NFL this week, so he’s worth at least some consideration as a desperation streamer. I’d still look elsewhere this week if you’re digging this deep. Last week was the first time in the 3 games since Ricky Seals-Jones returned from IR that Bates out-targeted RSJ, and neither player had a target until the second half of that game when Washington trailed by 5+ touchdowns. There’s a risk that RSJ plays more this week if there’s less garbage time, and that pushes an already shaky streamer to an unusable range for me. Bates is also too rich for my blood in DFS showdown contests ($4,600 on DraftKings).

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 17: @NE): The Pats remain a nightmare matchup for most rookie QBs. Since Bill Belichick took over as New England’s head coach in 2000, the Pats have held 49% of the rookie QBs they’ve faced below 10 fantasy points (17 out of 35). Lawrence has accounted for just 1 total touchdown in his last 8 games, and the Jaguars have an implied point total of just 12.5 points this week. You could take a chance on T-Law as a QB2 on the sole basis that he’s due for a good game, but nothing about this matchup or Lawrence’s recent performance points to a solid game for the rookie.

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 17: vs. NYG): If you missed the update, the Bears announced Friday that Andy Dalton will start in week 17 with Fields still battling through an injury. I’d be surprised if Fields is active.

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 17: vs. NYG): The Giants are bad enough that the Bears could actually pull off a convincing win this week and allow Herbert to get some extended run late in the game, but you can’t count on that in championship week. Khalil has handled 5 or fewer touches in all 7 games since David Montgomery returned from IR.

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 17: @Pit.): Felton filled in a lot at slot WR in week 15 with Jarvis Landry out with Covid, but he was back down to just 4 snaps on Sunday with Landry back. He’s not start-able.

RB Kene Nwangwu, MIN (Wk. 17: @GB): The new NFL Covid protocols announced this week made it easier for Dalvin Cook to return for this game, so Cook and Alexander Mattison should handle the bulk of the backfield work in this one. Nwangwu will be back to handling just special teams.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 17: @Dal.): Moore missed last week with an ankle injury, but the same things I wrote about him last week still apply. He hasn’t topped 50 scrimmage yards in his last 9 games, and Dallas ranks 1^st in pass defense DVOA. If there’s one glimmer of hope for Moore this week, it’s that the Cowboys allow the 3^rd-most yards after catch, but you can’t count on a useful game from Rondale if he’s active given what we’ve gotten from him this year.

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 17: vs. Det.): With Tyler Lockett back in action last week, Eskridge was back down to playing just 20 offensive snaps. He still saw 3 targets and one rushing attempt on those limited snaps, but I wouldn’t bet on a breakout game here against a defense that allows the 10^th-fewest WR points per game. The Seahawks have a great chance to play from ahead for once and lean on the run game as 7-point favorites.

WR Dez Fitzpatrick, TEN (Wk. 17: vs. Mia.): The Titans are battling some Covid issues this week with Julio Jones and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine expected to miss this game on the reserve list, but don’t count on that resulting in a significant opportunity for Dez. AJ Brown saw a 55% target share in his first game back from IR. I don’t expect that share to be quite as high this week, but AJB should dominate targets again in what is already a low volume passing attack. The WR scraps will be split between Fitzpatrick, Racey McMath, and Chester Rodgers. Even against a Miami defense allowing the 8^th-most WR points per game, none of that trio are worth anything more than a low-cost dart throw in DFS showdown contests. Dez, at $200 on DraftKings, is probably the most cost-effective option, but none are particularly good plays.

WRs Terrace Marshall Jr. & Shi Smith, CAR (Wk. 17: @NO): The Panthers’ passing game got even harder to predict last week with Sam Darnold and Cam Newton splitting playing time at QB. Marshall is playing a lot of snaps as the WR3, but he isn’t getting targeted. He has just 2 targets across nearly 80 offensive snaps played in the last 3 games. Smith, on the other hand, was productive last week (3 catches for 86 yards on 4 targets) but played just 15 snaps. Neither is trustworthy in championship week.

WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 17: @Pit.): Schwartz got in the end zone last week but handled just 3 touches on 11 offensive snaps in the process. He’s the distant WR4 in this offense right now.

WR Tylan Wallace, BAL (Wk. 17: vs. LAR): Wallace saw his first extended action of the season last week with Devin Duvernay sidelined and Sammy Watkins playing just 3 snaps in his return from the Covid list. He was targeted just twice. Duvernay could be out again, but I’d expect Watkins to see his playing time ramped up. Another 2-target game would be a reasonable expectation for Wallace this week.

WR Ben Skowronek, LAR (Wk. 17: @Bal.): Skowronek followed his best game of the season by playing just 4 offensive snaps last weekend. The return of Tyler Higbee seems to have drastically cut into his playing time. He’s off the fantasy radar this week.  

WRs Dyami Brown & Dax Milne, WAS (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): Don’t let a few targets and big play by Dyami last week fool you. These guys aren’t worth consideration. They played a combined 20 snaps last week, and the Eagles allow the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game. Elijah Moore is the only receiver to score 10+ points against Philly in their last 6 games.

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 17: @Chi.): Toney returned last week to NINE targets against the Eagles, but he’s suffered another injury and been ruled out for week 17. He just can’t stay on the field.

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 17: @NO): Tremble hasn’t topped 4 targets or 35 receiving yards in any game this season, and he hasn’t scored a touchdown since week 5. The Saints allow the 9^th-fewest TE points per game. Tremble isn’t a streaming option. (Update: Tremble was added to the Covid list on Friday.)

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): You could make a case that Patterson belongs in the borderline options this week with Antonio Gibson and JD McKissic both sidelined and Philly allowing the 14^th-most RB points per game, but he won’t have the job entirely to himself. Jonathan Williams and Wendell Smallwood will both mix-in a bit, and Patterson hasn’t been utilized much in the passing game, which is where Philly is most vulnerable to backs. The Eagles have allowed the 2^nd-most RB receptions per game. Patterson should still handle 10-15 touches in this one, which puts him on the flex radar in deeper leagues and makes him a value in DFS contests at his current price, but I wouldn’t view him as one of the top RB streamers of the week.

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 17: @Was.): Miles Sanders’ injury alone doesn’t make Gainwell a usable player this week, but that changes if Jordan Howard is out as well. Howard is going to be a game-time call. If he’s out, that leaves just Boston Scott and Gainwell to handle the backfield work against a middling run defense. The Eagles have had at least two backs handle 10+ touches in every game since week 8, and I don’t expect that to change here. If Howard sits, Gainwell becomes an intriguing DFS tournament option and an upside flex play in deeper leagues.

TE Tre’ McKitty, LAC (Wk. 17: vs. Den.): You’d have to be digging pretty deep in a DFS contest to be looking at McKitty, but the Chargers are down their top 2 tight ends this week with Jared Cook added to the Covid list late in the week. Stephen Anderson will likely function as the starting tight end, but the TE2 in this offense typically sees a 35%+ snap share. Denver doesn’t give up a ton of production to tight ends (allow the 4th-fewest points per game to the position), but you could do worse than McKitty if you’re looking for a bargain basement option in a showdown contest this week. He costs just $400 in the showdown slate on DraftKings.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to championship victory in your leagues. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. I know this is championship week, but I’ll be back next week with a quick look at week 18 as well for you DFS players and those with week 18 championships. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve made it to the end of another NFL season. Hopefully this season brought you fantasy success and good fortune. Hopefully my article last week helped talk some sense into you if you were considering sitting Ja’Marr Chase or Najee Harris last week, or helped you trust Amon-Ra St. Brown and Rhamondre Stevenson in the championship. In most leagues you already know whether or not you won. Most typical fantasy leagues this season were set up for a week 17 championship, and week 17 is now in the books, but not all leagues were set up that way. Some of you may be in leagues that were set up with a week 18 championship, or a two-week final that spans weeks 17 & 18. Your work isn’t done yet, and I’m here to help one more time if you have any rookies that you’re considering.

For those of you whose leagues concluded last week, you can put your feet up, kick back and relax this weekend and just watch the games for fun, or you can keep the fun rolling and dive into some DFS contests for the final week. The key for the final week is all about understanding motivation - which teams are motivated to win, and which teams are just trying to rest up for the playoffs or just get to the offseason. There will undoubtedly be unheralded players on those ‘unmotivated’ teams who see more action than we’re used to, and some of them are bound to be rookies. With that in mind, I’ll have a special section this week for rookies who could be in line for more work in week 18, and I’ll give a bit more of a DFS slant to some of the usual rookie suspects this week as well.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game numbers and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 18…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 18: @Bal.): The Ravens have been much better at defending the run than the pass, but that hasn’t stopped them from giving up 13+ fantasy points to a running back in each of their last 4 games, including to Najee in week 13. The Steelers will do everything in their power to try to get Ben Roethlisberger to the playoffs one more time, so we should see their normal starters for the whole game here. For Harris, that probably means close to 20 touches or more. That volume makes him an RB1 again this week. The Steelers still would need an unlikely Jacksonville upset over the Colts to have a shot at the postseason, but they’re not going to hold Najee back.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 18: @LAR): Jimmy Garoppolo’s status remains up in the air for this week, but if Lance gets the nod, he should be treated like a low-end QB1 even in a tough matchup. The Rams allow the 6^th-fewest QB points per game, but Lance has averaged 55 rushing yards per game in the 3 contests where he’s seen extended playing time, and the Rams allow more QB rushing yards per game than any of the 3 teams Lance has faced. This week’s slate is already missing Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson, and a number of other QB are at risk of being pulled early either due to clinched playoff spots or if their team pulls away – Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, Carson Wentz, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Mac Jones, Tom Brady. It’s hard to argue against Lance as a top-10 QB this week given how risky some of the usual top QBs are, and how much floor his rushing provides.

QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 18: vs. Ten.): Mills was a disappointment last week, but he finished as a top-15 quarterback in each of the 4 starts prior, and this week he faces a Titans’ defense that has allowed the 13^th-most QB points per game. Houston should be in a negative game script that will keep Mills throwing. Mills isn’t any more than a QB2 option this week, but a lot of QBs may not play full games in week 18, and with Mills, you know he’s likely to play the whole thing.

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 18: @LAR): The 49ers have had the Rams’ number since Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay took over as coaches for those franchises. SF has beaten LA 6 times in 9 meetings, including the last 5 in a row. The Rams need to win this game to clinch the division title, but the 49ers need to win it to clinch a playoff spot. San Francisco is likely to be the more desperate team, and Mitchell has been a focal point of the offense whenever he’s healthy. Mitchell has handled 17+ carries 8 times this season, and he’s rushed for 90+ yards in 6 of those games, including the first meeting with these Rams. The Rams are a tough matchup, ranked 4^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, but Mitchell should see a big workload and is a safe RB2 with upside for more.

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 18: @Buf.): Carter left quickly last week with a concussion but sounds likely to get cleared ahead of this week’s finale in Buffalo. If he plays, Carter should see a big workload in a matchup that is much more favorable than it was a couple months ago. Buffalo will be pulling out all the stops, needing a win to clinch the division title, but their run defense has crumbled in recent weeks. Buffalo allowed only 2 backs to reach 10+ fantasy points in their first 8 games of the season but have allowed 7 backs to hit that mark in their last 8, including Carter in week 10. Five of the 6 highest rushing yardage totals they’ve allowed this season also came in those 8 games. Don’t be afraid of the matchup here. Carter should be treated as an RB2 this week.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 18: @Mia.): The Patriots are favored by just 6 points this week, but it’s a game where one team is motivated to win, and the other isn’t. We’ve seen New England dismantle teams when they play with a purpose. The Patriots were on the winning side of 3 of the 7 most lopsided games in the NFL this season. The Patriots need this win to keep their hopes of a division title alive, and Damien Harris is expected to play through a hamstring injury this week. I’d expect that we see a lot of Rhamondre if the Patriots get out in front as New England lets Harris rest his hammy as much as they can. The Dolphins allow the 7^th-fewest RB points per game, but they were steamrolled by D’Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard last week and have less motivation to win this week. I’d expect Stevenson to have a floor somewhere around 60 yards, but he has similar upside to last week, when he scored 22.7 fantasy points.

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 18: @NYG): Antonio Gibson is practicing as though he’s going to return this week from a hip injury that sidelined him in week 17, but there’s little reason for Washington to push for him to return for a meaningless tilt with the Giants. I wouldn’t be surprised if Gibson winds up inactive for this one, but even if he plays, Patterson should still play quite a bit against a defense that allows the 8^th-most RB points per game and ranks 29^th in run defense DVOA. 12-15 touches against that defense are likely even if Gibson plays. That should put Patterson on the RB2/3 borderline, and he bumps up higher if Gibson sits.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 18: vs. GB): St. Brown has been on an absolute tear over the last 5 weeks, totaling at least 11 targets, 8 receptions and 70 yards in every single game, and finding the end zone at least once in 4 of them. I wouldn’t bet against him continuing to produce in week 18. Jared Goff will be back at QB, D’Andre Swift said he expects his own usage to be similar to last week (57% snap share, 8% target share), so he shouldn’t steal too many of Amon-Ra’s opportunities. The Packers have the number 1 seed locked up and will be resting many of their starters and the Lions can’t hurt their draft position with a win unless the Jaguars also win this week, which is HIGHLY unlikely. Detroit is going to treat this game like their Super Bowl, and that should mean a lot of ARSB again. I wouldn’t treat him as a lock to approach 20 fantasy points again, but his target volume should approach what we’ve seen from him in recent weeks. That makes him at least an upside WR3 this week.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 18: vs. NE): Waddle moves out of the auto-start range this week with the Dolphins having little to play for, but I still like his chances for a solid game. The Pats allow the 5^th-fewest WR points per game, but they’ve struggled to contain slot receivers. New England’s slot corner Jalen Mills has allowed a 115.4 passer rating into his coverage, and the Pats allowed slot receiver stat lines of 7-73 to Braxton Berrios, 6-77-1 to Keenan Allen, 11-125-1 to Isaiah McKenzie, and 4-64-1 to Jaylen Waddle in the first meeting with Miami. Miami could get some bench guys involved if they fall way behind, but Waddle should be heavily involved until that happens.

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 18: vs. Pit.): Bateman’s had a bit of an up-and-down rookie year, but he has shown a connection with backup QB Tyler Huntley, amassing 7 receptions in 2 of Huntley’s last 3 starts, and the Steelers are just a middling pass defense. Bateman should primarily matchup up with Cameron Sutton, who has allowed over 9 yards per target and a 114.5 passer rating into his coverage. The Ravens still have slim playoff hopes headed into this week, so they won’t hold anything back. Bateman is probably going to see the ball come his way 7+ times and has a chance to post one of his better games of the season.

 TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 18: vs. NO): Pitts is battling a hamstring injury that he suffered last week and faces a New Orleans defense that allows the 8^th-fewest TE points per game. He’s still a worthwhile TE play if he’s able to go. Pitts enters week 18 just 59 yards away from breaking Mike Ditka’s record for receiving yards by a rookie tight end, and the Falcons don’t have much left to play for other than breaking that record. It’s not a great matchup for Pitts, but I expect the Falcons to go out of their way to make sure he gets that record. He probably needs to finally score his second TD for a ceiling week, but he should have close to a 60-yard floor if he’s able to play.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 18: @Bal.): Freiermuth saw his highest target total since week 11 on Monday night, but he turned it into an underwhelming 5-22 line. It’s hard to put much blame on Pat as Ben Roethlisberger put up literally one of the least efficient passing performances of all-time. He became only the 14^th QB ever to have a game with 20+ attempts, a 50% completion percentage or better, and fewer than 3 yards per attempt. Ben had 14 more passing attempts Monday night than any of the other 13 QBs on the list. I can’t imagine that Ben is that inefficient again this week, and the Ravens allow the 6^th-most TE points per game. Freiermuth is always a fringe TE1, and this week he gets a plus matchup with Big Ben due for a bounce-back game. I like his chances at a strong game.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 18: @Mia.): I expect the Patriots to be in control of their game again this week, and for Jones to be efficient in a conservative gameplan again, but I don’t expect the team to put up anywhere near the 50 points they scored last Sunday. You could do worse if you’re looking for a QB2, but Mac has a limited ceiling in this one. He’s thrown for under 230 yards in 7 of his last 9 games and accounted for multiple TDs in just 4 of them.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 18: vs. KC): In two games with Drew Lock under center, Williams has run for 42 yards on 21 carries, and posted 10 receiving yards on 3 targets and 3 receptions. He was able to salvage his day in week 16 with a TD, but he put up just 4.2 PPR points in championship week. Defenses have been able to stack the box to prevent Denver’s run game from getting going, and I don’t see that changing this week. The Chiefs can lock up the #2 seed and homefield advantage through the divisional round with a win and should be motivated. Williams put up his best game of the season in the Broncos’ first meeting with KC, but he did that with Melvin Gordon sidelined and Teddy B under center. Javonte has a bright future in 2022, but I wouldn’t treat him as anything more than an upside RB3 this week.

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 18: @TB): Sam Darnold’s return to the starting lineup last week was clearly a good thing for Hubbard, who posted his best fantasy day since week 8 last weekend, but it won’t be enough to overcome a rough matchup this week. The Bucs allow the 4^th-fewest RB points per game and held Hubbard to 9 yards on 6 carries just two weeks ago. Bruce Arians has also been clear that the Bucs aren’t resting up for the playoffs. They’re playing to win this week. Hubbard has upside as the Panthers’ lead back, but he’s got a low floor that will get even lower if the Bucs pull away in this one.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 18: vs. Dal.): Everything about this game points towards both teams resting their starters for a large chunk of the game. Smith has earned more than 6 targets just once in the last 9 games. There could be a bigger target share than usual for him with Dallas Goedert on the Covid list, but that won’t matter all that much if he plays a limited number of snaps and matches up with Trevon Diggs when he’s on the field. Smith has WR2/3 upside as usual, but he’s got a lower floor than usual as well.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 18: @Cle.): I know, Chase single-handedly won many people their championships last weekend, but he’s as dicey a play this week as he’s been all season. The Bengals have already ruled out Joe Burrow for this week and will likely be without Joe Mixon as well. Any hopes the Bengals have to secure the AFC’s 1-seed will be dashed if the Chiefs win on Saturday, and I wouldn’t expect them to go all-out when a win this week simply guarantees them the 3-seed instead of #4. Brandon Allen will start in Burrow’s place. He got 5 starts last season and averaged just 191 passing yards and 1 TD per game. The Browns have allowed the 12^th-fewest WR points per game, and there’s a real chance that Chase won’t play the full game. If you have a week 18 game, I’d view Chase as a very risky WR3 option, and wouldn’t pay up for him in DFS at his $8,300 DraftKings price.

TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 18: @NYG): Bates has proven to be a viable desperation floor play tight end since taking over the starting job in Washington. He’s reached 35 yards in 3 of the last 5 games, and found the end zone in one of them, but that’s not enough to make him a reasonable starting option if you’re not desperate. He’s also more expensive than I’d like for DFS given what his production has looked like. A line in the range of 3-40 with a slim chance of a TD feels like the high end of what you should expect here. Dalton Schultz is the only tight end to score 10+ fantasy points against the Giants in the last 6 weeks.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 18: @Buf.): Wilson has played improved football in recent weeks, but the Bills defense has held 7 of the last 9 QBs they’ve faced below 12 fantasy points, and they figure to be locked-in for this one with the division title at stake. Even with his improved play, Wilson has only accounted for multiple TDs 4 times all season. There’s a lot more floor than ceiling here.

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 18: vs. Ind.): The Colts allow the 8^th-most QB points per game, but Lawrence has topped a dozen fantasy points just twice in his last 10 games, and the Colts need to win this game to make the playoffs. I wouldn’t count on an out-of-the-blue breakout game for Lawrence. Hopefully he’s able to put things back together next season with a new coaching staff.

WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 18: @LV): With all the Chargers’ receivers healthy last week, Palmer still garnered 5 targets for the Chargers, but his playing time dropped significantly from week 16. Jalen Guyton is another week removed from the Covid list, so Palmer’s snap share could drop further this week. Palmer has reached 30 receiving yards just twice all season. He played over 85% of the offensive snaps in both of those games. He won’t approach that kind of playing time in the must-win matchup with the Raiders.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 18: vs. Ten.): Collins costs too much to be a worthwhile DFS play in a plus matchup for WRs, and he isn’t a consistent enough producer to be worth consideration for regular lineups. Collins has put up 7-82-1 on 13 targets in the last 3 weeks combined. The Titans allow the 2^nd-most WR points per game, but the only trustworthy WR in this offense in Brandin Cooks.

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 18: @Ari.): The Seahawks don’t have much to play for this weekend, but I expect Pete Carroll to attempt to make a last stand of sorts. A win this week probably won’t put his job on any more stable footing, but I expect Carroll to coach to win. Eskridge hasn’t handled more than 3 touches in any game this season, and I don’t see a good reason that changes this week.

TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 18: vs. Ten.): Jordan has been targeted more than 4 times in a game just once all season, and the Titans have allowed the 6^th-fewest TE points per game this season. Tennessee needs a win in this game to secure a first-round bye, and they’ll be eager to avenge a loss to Houston in week 11, so there will be no let up from their defense. Jordan should see a handful of targets, but that’s not likely to be enough for a productive week in this one. No tight end has scored a TD against the Titans since week 8.

TE Kenny Yeboah, NYJ (Wk. 18: @Buf.): Yeboah was thrust into the starting role last week with Trevon Wesco on IR and Tyler Kroft on the Covid list, but it resulted in just 2 targets for the rookie. Kroft was activated earlier this week. That means Yeboah probably plays closer to 30% of the snaps than the 61% share he played last Sunday. I’d be surprised if he sees more than 2 or 3 targets in this one, and he’s facing a Buffalo defense that allows the 5^th-fewest TE points per game.

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 18: @TB): Tremble missed last week with Covid. If he’s feeling any lingering effects from that, it makes his chances of a longshot good game even longer. Even if he’s at full strength, Tremble’s best fantasy performance in the last 10 games resulted in 5.5 PPR points. There isn’t any upside here.

Rookies Who Could Get Extended Playing Time in Week 18:

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 18: vs. Dal., DK Showdown price: $1,600): Miles Sanders has been ruled out for week 18, and Jordan Howard and Boston Scott were both placed on the Covid list earlier this week. That leaves Gainwell as the only healthy back on the team. Obviously, it’s possible that one or both of Howard and Scott get cleared to return this week, but if they don’t, Gainwell is going to handle a huge number of touches against a Dallas team that may be resting starters since they’ve already clinched the division. Don’t be surprised if Gainwell comes out of nowhere to post a top-15 RB performance in the finale.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 18: @Cle., DK Showdown price: $1,000): With Joe Mixon sidelined this week, the Bengals’ backfield work will be split between Samaje Perine and Evans. Perine has been the clear-cut RB2 in this offense this year, but this could be a golden opportunity to get the receiving specialist Evans some extra work with the Bengals nearly a touchdown underdog. Brandon Allen is more likely to check down than Joe Burrow. I’d expect Evans to play at least 25% of the offensive snaps, with the possibility for more if the Bengals do fall behind. 5+ targets and 5+ carries are well within the reasonable range of expectations for Evans this week.

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 18: @Min., DK Showdown price: $800): The Bears and Vikings don’t have much to play for this week with both eliminated from playoff contention. I think it’s likely that Matt Nagy knows that a win here won’t save his job, so there’s no reason to run David Montgomery into the ground. Andy Dalton gets the start for Chicago with Justin Fields on the Covid list, and I’d expect Chicago to be handing off plenty. Herbert is a risky option who is only worth consideration for Showdown DFS contests, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he sees increased playing time in the 2^nd half against a defense that ranks 25^th in run defense DVOA.

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 18: vs. Cin., DK Showdown price: $200): It remains up in the air whether or not Kareem Hunt will be able to return for this game and D’Ernest Johnson was placed on the Covid list this week. That leaves just Felton behind Nick Chubb on the Browns’ running back depth chart. Johnson has played over 30% of the offensive snaps in each of the last 3 games with Hunt sidelined. If Johnson can’t get cleared, I wouldn’t expect Felton’s role to be quite that big, but 20+ snaps are a possibility. His receiving skill gives him a double-digit point ceiling even if his floor remains non-existent.

WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 18: vs. Cin., DK Showdown price: $1,400): Schwartz played his highest snap share since week 9 last Monday, taking snaps away from Rashard Higgins in the process. The Browns could increase that even more this week as they evaluate what they have in the rookie. Case Keenum will be starting at QB for the Browns, and Schwartz likely has a solid rapport with Keenum due to practicing together with the second team offense. Schwartz has been targeted 3+ times in just 3 games this season, and one of them was Keenum’s only start of the season. The Bengals will be resting many of their starters, which means Schwartz could make a splash play or two against their backup DBs. His floor is essentially 0 points, but there’s a chance for a boom game here. 

WR Amari Rodgers, GB (Wk. 18: @Det., DK Showdown price: $200): I’d be surprised if any key Packers are still on the field in the 2^nd half of this game, and even Jordan Love should be able to have success throwing against Detroit’s defense that ranks 29^th in pass defense DVOA. I expect Amari and Equanimeous St. Brown to play a lot in the second half, and that gives Amari huge upside at his $200 Showdown slate price tag. 

That’s all I’ve got for this season. Hopefully it helps guide you to championship victory in your leagues if that’s still up for grabs, or at least a little DFS cash. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. It’s been a pleasure bringing you these rookie tidbits all year, and I look forward to doing it again with the new rookie crop in 2022. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

525 Passing Yards

Joe Burrow had a hell of a game on Sunday, notching the highest point total of the week - the second highest going to his teammate, Tee Higgins, who had an equally gaudy stat line. Burrow went 37 of 46 for 525 yards and 4 touchdowns, tacking on 11 rushing yards just because. Burrow had 38.1 fantasy points, which was well ahead Dak Prescott’s 31.3 points (the QB2 of the week), but then again, Dak didn’t even play 3 full quarters. Joe Burrow outgained every single team in the league so far in Week 16, and I don’t see a serious challenge to that stat coming tonight. It is Burrow’s best game as a pro - his two highest passing games have come this year against the Ravens. Burrow is now the first player to throw for 400+ yards twice in one season against the same opponent, putting up a total of 941 yards against Baltimore, also a record for any QB against one opponent in a season. This is the most passing yards in a game since 2014 and Burrow now sits as the 4th highest passing yardage total of all time - just 3 shy of taking the 2nd overall spot, but still a bit behind Norm Van Brocklin’s 554 yards against the New York Football Yanks, way back when the Rams were in Los Angeles. Time is truly a flat circle.

132 Receptions

Cooper Kupp is now on pace to have a shot at breaking Michael Thomas’s single season receptions record. Some might complain that it’s easier with a 17-game season, and while that’s true, I find it mostly irrelevant. New records will not go into the book with an asterisk, and the season is unlikely to have fewer games in the future. The playing field is always changing, along with rules, and eras are just different, so deal with it and just enjoy the fun of players breaking records. Thanks for allowing me that digression - on to the numbers. Cooper Kupp and Jonathan Taylor are neck-and-neck for the most non-QB points on the season. Kupp has 325.4, Taylor has 324.2 and the next closest player is a whopping 60 points behind them. Taylor has the edge in yards gained (1,962) and touchdowns (19), but Kupp is certainly the beneficiary of the half PPR system, which has netted him an additional 66 points. At the end of this season, I’ve considered the merits of a point per first down, rather than point per reception (half or full), and I think it could be a trend that takes off in fantasy football. There are slightly fewer first downs on average, but awarding a full point instead of a half point would still boost scoring a little bit, and assign it to the players who make a bigger impact on the game.

37.4 Fantasy Points

The aforementioned Tee Higgins was the biggest beneficiary of Joe Burrow’s career game. He put up the second highest point total for any wide receiver this season, only eclipsed by Tyreek Hill’s 42.1 point performance in week 4. Higgins put up the 4th highest receiving yardage total on the season. Bengals receivers (Higgins and Chase) now have two of the top 4 receiving yardage totals on the season. Higgins has improved on nearly every statistical category from his rookie year. He’s averaging 1 more yard per reception, 1.3 more receptions per game, over 22 more yards per game, his catch percentage has jumped more than 5%, and even his yards per target has gone up by 1.4. Higgins may not have been the big storyline of the Bengals with Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Mixon taking the headlines so far this year, but it’s clear that he’s rounding out into a proper star in the NFL and is a key part of one of the youngest team cores in the league.

-4 Yards Rushing

Melvin Gordon accomplished the unique feat of finishing with negative rushing yards without exiting the game early with injury or losing yards on a kneel down. To be fair to Gordon, he had a 4 yard reception, so he finished the day with a net total of zero yards from scrimmage. On average, for every carry, Gordon went backwards 20 inches. Gordon’s final 3 carries went for -3, -4, and -3 yards. He opened the game with a 4 yard carry, and could not gain more than 1 yard at a time after that, aside from his single 4 yard reception. Obviously the Broncos have a rough situation without Teddy Bridgewater, but sometimes I just like to have a little bit of fun at the expense of a guy who’s been taking carries from Javonte Williams all year! Am I a little biased? Did I draft Javonte in my dynasty league this year? Yes.

19.75 Fantasy Points Per Game

Finally, a shout out to the Dallas Cowboys D/ST squad. Over the last 4 games, they are averaging 19.75 points per game, (16.42 over the last 7). They have been absolutely dominant in real and fantasy football, winning all of their last 4 games, allowing just 14.25 points per game - and we know that 7 of those last night were just total garbage points. The Cowboys D/ST are the #1 D/ST in fantasy football. They have scored more than any kicker this year, and more points than all but 2 tight ends. They have scored 9 total touchdowns this year, and have a whopping 25 interceptions, led by Trevon Diggs who has an astonishing 11 interceptions - the highest single season total since Everson Walls had 11 in 1981. Diggs still has 2 games left to keep adding on, and as I mentioned before, I don’t care that he has more games in a season than other players.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

40+ Points in 2 Weeks

For the first time in his career, and perhaps the first time in history, Lamar Jackson has put up two straight 40+ point fantasy games. Through his remarkable career, he had tons of big games, but never reached the 40-point mark until week 5 of 2021. Now after week 3 in 2022, he has two more of those games on record. During those two games, he has 536 pass yards, 7 pass TD to only one INT, 226 rushing yards and two more TDs on the ground. In both games, he passed 100 rush yards, the 12^th of his career. One remarkable quirk of this stat is that Jackson wasn’t even the only 40-point scoring QB during this time – he was joined by his opponent in week 2, Tua Tagovailoa, who had 40.86 points of his own.

14% Average Ownership Rate

Two of the top 5 WRs this week basically came out of nowhere. Mack Hollins (5% in Fleaflicker) and Zay Jones (23% in Fleaflicker) are not owned in many leagues, and were started in even less. They combine for an average of just 14% ownership in Fleaflicker leagues, and also just barely combined to top Lamar with 45.46 points. Hollins was the WR2 on the week with 25.96 points, putting up 8 catches on 10 targets with 158 yards and 1 TD – he even added 4 passing yards for a cherry on top. In the drinkfive.com league, 9 of the top 20 WRs were free agents when their games started on Sunday, so it’s clearly time for us to start working the waiver wires. Pitter-patter.

16 Points on DST

Three separate teams scored exactly 16 points on their D/ST in week 3. The Panthers, Bengals, and Broncos all found different ways to lead the week with 16 points. Both the Bengals (27%) and Panthers (2%) had incredibly low ownership rates. Only the Panthers were aided by a touchdown on their way to the top spot of the week. Both the Bengals and Broncos recovered 2 fumbles and had 4 sacks. All 3 teams won their game. Special credit goes to the Broncos for doing it with the most style, getting the safety, though it was basically an unforced error by Jimmy Garoppolo. Honorable mention goes to the Eagles, who were juuust short of the party with 15 points. Turns out 9 sacks just wasn’t enough.

49 More Offensive Snaps

The Bills offense was on the field for more than 2/3rds of the game on Sunday, and moved the ball at will on the Dolphins. But the Dolphins ended the week in first place with a shiny, 3-0 record while handing the Bills their first loss. The Bills ran 92 offensive snaps, to the Dolphins’ measly 43 snaps, more than doubling them up in both offensive snaps and time of possession. The Bills also out-gained them 497-212, and couldn’t win in a game where their opponent had a “butt punt” and caused a safety against themselves. Are the Dolphins suddenly incredibly relevant and winning in many different ways? That’s a Texas-sized 10-4.

0 Rush Yards, 12.4 Fantasy Points

Does a running back need rushing yards to have a good game? That’s a hard no. In what is surely the best fantasy stat of the week, Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushed 7 times for zero yards. He did score on the ground, though 4 of his 7 carries went for zero or negative yardage. His 5 receptions for 39 yards are what keep his stat line from being embarrassing. On the season, CEH is the RB3 (though Saquon Barkley will probably have something to say about that on Monday night). Edwards-Helaire has 47.1 points on the season, on only 22 carries. He has 12 receptions on 12 targets, a perfect rate which has really been the difference for him.