Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

15 Games With 300+ Passing Yards

Justin Herbert just completed his 15th career game with at least 300 passing yards on Sunday against the Bengals. He’s only started 27 games in his career, and has more starts with 300+ yards than starts without reaching 300 yards. Herbert finished this week with 26.28 points as the QB3, and is the QB2 on the season (QB4 by points per game). His floor is great, never dipping below 12 points this year, and he’s topped the 30 point mark 4 times - in each of those 4 games, he has finished as the QB1 or 2 on the week. Outside of fantasy, he has 5 game winning drives complimenting his 5-4th quarter comebacks this season. This is a really great showing this year for a guy drafted as the QB8 (59th overall), right behind Russell Wilson, who is the QB24 on the year.

86 Receptions

Jaylen Waddle is currently on pace to break the rookie receptions record. He currently is averaging 6.6 catches per game and is on pace to smash the current record of 101, set by Anquan Boldin back in 2003. Thanks to the 17 game season, he’s on pace for a whopping 112 total receptions, but even if there were only 16 games, he would be on just enough of a pace to break it. Waddle is the WR15 on the year, helped along by much more consistent play over the last 5 weeks, where he’s averaged 7.6 receptions per game and helped his team to a 5-0 record during that time. Waddle won’t challenge for the rookie yardage record - his pace of 1,110 for the year is far from the record of 1,473, set by Bill Groman back in 1960 in only 14 games. 

35.1 Fantasy Points

For the first time this season, a tight end leads all fantasy players in total points for the week. George Kittle put together a massive 34.4 fantasy points in half PPR. He had 9 receptions on 12 targets for 181 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. He tacked on a 5 yard rush for that little bit extra. Last week, Kittle had 1 catch for 13 yards, totaling 1.8 fantasy points. Kittle owners are sure to have whiplash from the point swing, so please be careful. Kittle got 30% of his total receiving yards on the season in week 13 (and 40% of his touchdowns, but he only has 5 total). Amazingly, Kittle has two games with higher yardage totals, and two with higher reception totals, but it’s his first career game with two touchdowns. 

12.2 Fantasy Points Per Game

Through 12 games this season, Nick Folk is averaging 12.2 fantasy points per game and is the #45 point scorer in all of fantasy football. That’s a better per-game average than DJ Moore, David Montgomery, Saquon Barkley, and the aforementioned Jaylen Waddle. Folk would be the RB11 and the WR12 on the season (if he played those positions and still kicked…it’s a stretch, work with me here). Folk has 7 games with double digit points this season. He’s only missed 3 field goal attempts on the year, all of them from 53 yards or longer. Tonight Folk has to kick in some sketchy conditions - it’s supposed to be very windy, and of course cold because it’s December, in Buffalo.

5 of the Top 10 Quarterbacks

Volatility is once again the name of the game at the QB position in week 13. Half of the top 10 QBs this week were not rostered in the drinkfive.com league, and those 5 QBs combine for an average ownership rate of just 39.2% in Fleaflicker leagues (thanks to Gardner Minshew for keeping that number low). This is the 4th time since week 8 that we have seen 5 out of the top 10 QBs not commonly rostered. This week saw a performance from Taysom Hill, which in hindsight, should have been obvious that it was coming. Even if he threw 4 INTs and ran for 100 yards (an NFL first), he’s still a good fantasy QB. Zach Wilson and Jared Goff both had their best games since Week 1. Ben Roethlisberger, the most rostered player in this group at 65%, had a stellar 4th quarter with 2 TD passes and a 2-point conversion on his way to beating the Ratbirds….errr, Ravens.. 

First of all, how is it not the playoffs yet? This extended season suddenly feels very weird. That being said, let's have a look at players who are trending up or down over the last 3 weeks (or longer). We like to look at trends to try and identify if a player is on the right or wrong track, OR if they’re close to turning things around.

Matthew Stafford (QB-LAR) - Week 10 @ SF, 11.82; Week 12 @ GB, 22.98; Week 13 vs JAC, 24.00: Stafford had a rough stretch this year in weeks 9 and 10 where he threw only 1 TD and 2 INTs each game and put up his two lowest fantasy point totals of the season. The Rams then had a bye week and it seems like Stafford worked a few things out, because he’s thrown 3 touchdowns in each of the two games he’s had since the bye. While it does feel like he’s turned a corner, I would be very cautious with starting him against the Cardinals, especially if you have to win this week to make the playoffs. If you’re already in, then hold on to Stafford, because his schedule for the playoffs is very nice, playing Seattle, Minnesota, and Baltimore, all in the top half of fantasy points against to opposing QBs.

Javonte Williams (RB-DEN) - Week 10 vs PHI, 5.9; Week 12 vs LAC, 18.6, Week 13 @ KC, 26.8: Williams has been one of the most talked about rookie RBs this season due to his seemingly untapped potential. Williams has also been one of the best RBs after contact this season, and finally the Broncos have let him loose. He has had his best two fantasy weeks since the Broncos bye in Week 11. With  Melvin Gordon is out, he’s also seeing a huge amount of touches - 29 last week! He had 178 yards from scrimmage, 6 receptions and scored a TD against the Chiefs, good for 26.8 points and the RB1 spot in Week 13. Coming up, the Broncos will probably get Gordon back this week, but the RB split should now be in favor of Williams. Three of his next 4 matchups are against teams giving up top 6 points to opposing RBs. Williams is on a true trend up and will probably be a high draft pick next year.

James Robinson (RB-JAC) - Week 11 vs SF, 10.8; Week 12 vs ATL, 11.0, Week 13 @ LAR, 2.0: While this isn’t a textbook example of the trend we’re looking for, it’s clear that Robinson’s production had been sliding downward after a really nice stretch earlier in the season. This last week he only had 9 touches in a game that, while a blowout, he should have had lots more work. It appears that Robinson could be in the doghouse. There were reports that during the game, Carlos Hyde needed a breather and Robinson was not put in for him. Robinson has a rough matchup this week against Tennessee, so sitting him wouldn't be a bad move. His next two games are great matchups, so firing him up if he gets more work in Week 14 is the right move. Then he faces the Patriots in the fantasy championship, which is never a fun matchup for anyone.

Russell Gage (WR-ATL) - Week 11 vs NE, 7.40, Week 12 @ JAC, 15.20, Week 13 vs TB, 16.50: The Falcons passing game finally seems to have a focal point, and it’s Russell Gage. Gage has 22 receptions in the last 3 games to go with 27 targets (he had 26 targets in the other 5 games he played in this year). Anyone getting 9 targets per week is going to be on everyone’s fantasy radar, and it helps that he’s either scored a TD or gone over 100 yards in each of the last two games. Gage should continue to get peppered with targets as opposing defenses are forced to focus on Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts.

Chase Claypool (WR-PIT) - Week 11 @ LAC, 11.90, Week 12 @ CIN, 9.70, Week 13 vs BAL, 6.40: It’s possible that Claypool is banged up - the rumor is that he has a foot injury, though he practiced yesterday and hasn’t missed any games recently. Regardless, Claypool has not had a very good season, only going over 100 yards and scoring 1 TD all season (that was the same game. He only has 2 other games with double digit points. Claypool’s targets have gone from 9 to 8 to 3 over the last 3 weeks, and last week he played only 63% of offensive snaps, his lowest total since week 5 (and second lowest total for the season). Claypool has only 10 receptions and 3 rushes (for 3 yards) over the last 3 weeks, so he’s not getting the work that you want to see from a guy who was drafted as a WR3 (26th WR taken). Claypool has fantastic matchups for the next 2 weeks, and the 2 after that are still favorable, so it’s going to be tough to keep him on the bench, despite his poor performance recently.