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Week 4 was not kind to many across the league. Only one undefeated team remains, Tom Brady barely escaped Foxboro with a victory, Matt Nagy has saved his job for another week, Urban Meyer might have lost his job (certainly his locker room), and we learned that even domes can have weather delays. Not sure who to thank for that last one, probably El Niño. Regardless, let's get updated on what you need to know going in to Week 5.

• Jimmy Garoppolo was initially thought to have a multi-week calf injury and exited Sunday’s game after a lackluster performance. Garoppolo has not been very good this year, not topping 20 fantasy points in any game. NBC Sports Edge even went as far as to speculate that Garoppolo had played his last snap with the 49ers immediately after the game. Trey Lance threw a pair of TDs, threw for 157 yards and rushed for an additional 41. The news on Tuesday was that the injury to Garoppolo is not as bad as they thought, and that he might play Week 5 against the Cardinals. Frankly, I can’t understand why they would rush him back to play in that situation when the 49ers are on bye the following week. Trey Lance is probably their best chance in a shootout and in my opinion SHOULD be the starter.

• Josh Gordon is back!!! He was probably already picked up in your league by that one guy who is still living in 2013. Tuesday, he was promoted to the 53-man roster on the Chiefs and is worth a stash spot on your bench since he’s on the 2nd highest scoring offense in the league. 

• David Montgomery is going to be out 4-5 weeks which should land him on the IR, providing a little bit of roster relief for those leagues that are taking advantage of the new rules. Montgomery had a huge share of the Bears rushing attempts, and also had his best game on Sunday, running up over 100 yards and 2 TDs. This loss is definitely going to hurt and I don’t expect there to be a direct replacement for him. Damien Williams and Khalil Herbert will fill in for him while he’s gone, with Williams likely to get the majority of the work.

• Teddy Bridgewater left the game at halftime on Sunday and entered concussion protocol. Going into week 4, he was averaging 17.6 points per game, which put him right at the end of superflex startability. Now Drew Lock is going to start if Teddy can’t go and that feels like a downgrade for all fantasy players on the Broncos.

• Joe Mixon has an ankle injury. Initially, it was thought that he would be week-to-week, but now it appears that he’ll be day-to-day, so keep an eye on his practice status throughout the week. Of course, last year he was week-to-week in Week 5 and didn’t play again that season, so take all of this with a grain of salt. Mixon was playing over 75% of his team’s snaps, and now Samaje Perine will have to fill that role.

• Will Fuller has a broken finger and is considered week-to-week. This has been a frustrating start to his first season in Miami. For now, cut him loose and look for your fantasy points somewhere other than the Dolphins passing game.

• Logan Thomas is week-to-week with a hamstring injury. Thomas was a popular draft pick this year who actually showed up and played well. His loss is tough, especially the zero points he got for you in Week 4. You’re better off streaming a TE from another team than trying to replace him with Ricky Seals-Jones.

• DJ Chark is going to the IR after breaking his ankle last Thursday night. Chark was off to a good start, playing on over 80% of snaps in the first 3 games, scoring 2 TDs and averaging 22 yards per reception. Now his absence should bump up the production numbers for Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault as the Jaguars get their passing offense going. 

That's it for this week! Make sure to join us live on the Fantasy Finish Line Podcast, Wednesday at 9pm CST. Bring us your lineup questions, trade evaluations, and things you generally need advice on in your life. We're guaranteed not to make it any worse than it already is.

Four weeks into the NFL season and most of us have experienced at least some upheaval when it comes to our starting lineups. Here, we have six sleeper picks for you. These are guys that are buried on your bench, or perhaps still on the waiver wire, who can deliver the promise of a top-10 performance in Week 5. Remember, I said promise, not guarantee.

Jason:

• James Conner (vs SF) - Last week Conner was the RB8, the week before he was the RB12. The 49ers are giving up the 10th most points to opposing RBs. The 49ers are either going to roll out an injury-hobbled Jimmy G, or Trey Lance in his first NFL start. Either way, the league’s highest scoring offense will be just fine and the Cardinals, who have scored at least 31 points every week, could easily find themselves with clock to burn in garbage time. So, even though Conner is not doing much with the decent amount of carries he’s getting, he is finding the end zone lately. It seems like the short yardage work is going to go his way for now, instead of Kyler Murray’s - which is a smart way to keep your QB healthy.

• Kadarius Toney (@ DAL) - Last week, the Giants had two of their starting WRs, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton, out with injury. The result was that the Giants hadtheir best passing performance of the season, and it wasn’t even close. Kadarius Toney led the team in targets with 9, catching 6 of them for 78 yards. Toney gets to play the Cowboys this year, who are giving up the 3rd most points to opposing WRs through 4 games. Toney should get peppered with targets once again, either from the Giants keeping pace with the Cowboys, or just trying to catch up if it’s a blowout. Either way, it’s a prime spot for Toney to break out and also find the end zone for the first time.

• Zack Moss (@ KC) - After being inactive for Week 1, Moss has had a very steady fantasy season. He has scored a touchdown in each of the last 3 games. This week he goes up against yet another defense that is giving up top 10 fantasy points to opposing RBs. The Chiefs are 5th on that list, and really just giving up tons of points to everyone so far this year. Moss has slowly gained more of a share of the carries in the Buffalo backfield, and if I had to pick between him and Devin Singletary, I’m going with Moss to be the guy to have the big game against Kansas City. The touchdown streak continues, the Bills keep rolling and will put up another 40 against the Chiefs (their average score during this winning streak is 39.3).

Dave:

• Michael Carter (@ ATL) - As predicted by many in the fantasy football community earlier this year, Michael Carter has begun to take over the Jets’ backfield snaps from Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman. He had a season-high 13 attempts last week against the Titans, but was only able to put up 9.4 points against the middling rushing defense (including his first NFL touchdown). Good news ahead for Carter, though. He’ll be going up against the Falcons in Week 5 who have been giving up an average of 19.9 points per week to opposing RBs. It’s not likely that Carter starts to see more passing down work, but the momentum looks good to me at the moment - coming off their first win of the season in overtime and finally all of their receivers healthy at one time could be just the combination of fairy dust necessary for Carter’s breakout performance.

• Laviska Shenault (vs TEN) - Unfortunately, D.J. Chark was injured on the fourth play of the game last week against the Bengals, getting carted off the field with what was later determined to be a broken left ankle. It’s not likely that we’ll be seeing him for the rest of the season, which opens up the #1 WR spot on the Jaguars for second-year receiver Shenault. While it’s true that he only has the second-most targets on the team so far this season with 28 to Marvin Jones’s 31, a quick glance at the trajectory of their trending statistics reveals that Jones has had fewer targets and less fantasy production each of the past 3 weeks, whereas Shenault has registered an increase in receptions, yardage, and fantasy points over the same time period. A clear indication of how his usage will trend moving forward, especially with Chark’s injury. Trevor Lawrence leaned on Shenault heavily last week and will continue to do so against Tennessee’s league-worst passing defense, currently allowing 36.1 fantasy points per game on average.

• Robby Anderson (vs PHI) - Historically considered by many to be your classic boom-or-bust fantasy option, Anderson has already showcased his deep field abilities this year in week 1 with a 57-yard TD from current QB and former teammate Sam Darnold. So that’s not at all in question. No, the issue is more about Anderson’s consistency of play and whether or not he can get into the same rhythm with Darnold as he did with Teddy Bridgewater under center in 2020. He had 95 receptions for over 1,000 yards last season. This week’s matchup against the Eagles is a positive one for Anderson, with the Philadelphia passing defense on the wrong side of good so far this season, and his targets per game trending up from 3 to 6 to 11 if you discount the Houston win (26-9) in week 3 as a game that didn’t require a lot of field stretching to put to pasture. It’s clear that D.J. Moore has solidified his position as the WR1 in Carolina, but there is room on this offense for Anderson to succeed as well.

It is crazy how fast the NFL season goes once you get into it. We are headed into week 5, the last week before bye weeks start. We also have our first London game of the year!  I think I speak for every American when I whole heartedly apologize to our British brothers and sisters for sending them the Jets and Falcons. Short note, that game kicks off at 9:30 AM Eastern time Sunday morning. Set your alarms, but more importantly set those fantasy lineups.

Two more wins for the official drinkfive picks brings our season record to 8-4. Seattle rolled in San Francisco and won outright as a road dog and we double dipped with the Ravens in Denver as a dog, or short favorite, and on the money line. Minnesota was a disappointing loss and my hat goes off to the Cleveland Browns holding that offense to 7 points on their own field. Aside from our official picks I had a lot of fun, and wins, with teasers last weekend, so I wanted to start with a little teaser blurb and point on some teams this week to consider throwing in a teaser play.

A teaser is similar to a parlay in the sense that you need more than one win to win the bet. Unlike a parlay though a teaser does change the spread and total. Traditionally teasers are done in 6-point increments. Dogs gain an extra 6 points and favorites subtract 6 points from their number; likewise, with totals. There at a few rules you should always follow when playing teasers. First, never cross the zero!  You lose value when you cross the zero with a favorite because you are “giving up” a whole point when the number crosses the zero. The second rule is to cross two key numbers. This works for both favorite and dog teasers. Crossing two key numbers present the best value and highlights a significant advantage to the bettor.

Teaser Teams for Week 5 Include:

Seattle +2.5 to +8.5

Washington +1.5 to +7.5

Minnesota -8.5 to -2.5

Cleveland +2.5 to +8.5

Baltimore -6.5 to -0.5

Buffalo +2.5 to +8.5

Two team teasers pay out roughly -110 to -120 odds so they are similar to a single straight up bet, but you are getting the extra 6 points one way or the other so you’re decreasing the risk. I recommend only focusing on two team teasers to limit the risk associated with needing multiple things to go right.

New York Jets +3.5 vs Atlanta

That’s right, I will be setting my alarm for an early morning sweat on the Jets in the London game. Atlanta opened as 4-point favorites and the line was bet down to 3.5 almost immediately before being bet down further to 3 by mid-week. Now that its rested at 3 I have seen some books bump back up to the 3.5 and I think that is the key number to take if you’re riding with me on the Jets here.  This is an ugly game with two bad teams and while the bets are virtually split the Jets are taking in a massive 78% of the money, which signals sharp action. Jets are also a short dog with a line move in their favor, a system that hits at 62% over the last two seasons.

New York Giants +7 at Dallas

Oh man this one is tough to swallow, but its simply too high a number given the situation. First of all, this is a divisional matchup and I am strong believer that division dogs are the best dogs to take. I will repeat this a lot, but teams are built to win their divisions which means they are built to play best against teams in their division. Beyond that they have familiarity because they play each other every season, twice a season. Danny Dimes is also an ATS machine when he’s on the road going 11-4 ATS (73%) for his career. That improves to 10-2 ATS (82%) as a road dog. As of right now this number has been locked at 7, which is a line move in favor of the Giant in spite of only having 22% of the bets. That being said I am going to hold off on locking this in right now until I can see if I can get a 7.5. If it never moves back I will be jumping on it officially at 7 on game day or before it moves lower.

Buffalo +3 at Kansas City

Aside from just being an incredible treat and matchup, this game is strength vs strength. Mahomes is playing out of his mind, even by his standards, with 14 TD passes already on this young season. Behind that phenomenal play the Chiefs have the top DVOA offense in the league. In comes Buffalo, and immediately people are going to be excited about Josh Allen vs Patrick Mahomes, however the Buffalo defense going against the top offensive weapon in the league should be the most polarizing aspect of this game. Buffalo’s defense is #1 in DVOA and it isn’t even close. When you break down the analytics Buffalo has a historic defense though the first 4 weeks. They stop the run (2nd best in the league) and they are the best at defending the pass. Like I said this is strength vs strength and outside of betting I am genuinely excited to watch this game on Sunday night. From a betting perspective this is a Bills play all the way. They are short road dog, 19-6 ATS, a prime-time dog, 7-5 ATS, and Josh Allen is 14-6-2 (70%) as a dog. It gets slightly better with Josh Allen going 11-4-1 (73%) in games with a line of 3 or less. Buffalo has the fire power against a weaker defense to get the lead early, and they have the defense to hold onto it. I am taking the points and putting a little on the money line. 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 0-6 Record in Their First Start

Trey Lance is the sixth rookie QB to make his first start this season, and in those games, all 6 rookie QBs have posted losses. Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Davis Mills, and Trey Lance are the six rookies. Overall, those rookies only have 5 total wins, with Fields leading the way with two, Wilson with just one win last week in OT over the Titans. Mac Jones also has two victories this year, but interestingly enough, his opponent in both of those wins were also rookie QBs. Of this week’s performers, even though Davis Mills did not win, he was by far the best fantasy rookie QB of the week. Mills threw for 312 yards and 3 TDs for 24.68 fantasy points, good for QB5 on the week (and Mills is only owned in 21% of Fleaflicker leagues). His 141.7 QB rating was the second-best on the week, behind only the GOAT himself, Tom Brady – who posted his 9^th career game with 5+ passing TDs (and second of the season).

6 QBs in Tier 1

This season, it’s quite crowded at the top of the QB list. There are 6 QBs that I would consider all in the same playing tier, as they are all within less than a 10%-point difference of each other. On top is Patrick Mahomes, with a surprising 2-3 record, has a league-leading 16 passing TDs, and still leads the league in fantasy points with 136.9 (just edging out Tom Brady’s 136.28). The only other QB with a losing record, Jalen Hurts, is just 11.7 points behind the leader. Of the top 6, Hurts actually has the highest floor – his worst game clocks in at 21.80 points against the 49ers in Week 2. Take that, Kyler Murray, who could only post 13.66 this week against them. Perhaps in all of this I have not given enough credit to the best performer of the week, and the only QB to break the 40-point barrier this season, Justin Herbert. Herbert led his team to an astonishing 47 points, even if they weren’t trying to score a TD on that very last drive.

153 Yards from Scrimmage per Game

While the top of the QB list may be crowded, there is only one name atop the RB list, and that’s King Henry himself. Derrick Henry quietly had 130 rushing yards this week, actually lowering his season average for yards from scrimmage – probably because this is the first game this season that he was not targeted in the passing game. In every other game this year, he has at least two receptions. I suppose that his participation in the passing game wasn’t necessary since the Titans were easily handling the Jaguars, handing them their 20^th consecutive loss. Those of you with Henry on your team will just have to settle for the 3 TDs and 31 total points that he gave you. Henry is still on pace to break the single-season yardage record, though at this pace he will definitely need that 17^th game to do so. Henry definitely deserves his own tier when looking at the rankings – he’s nearly 20 fantasy points ahead of the second-best RB, Austin Ekeler, who in turn is 16+ points ahead of the 3^rd highest scoring RB this year, some slouch named Zeke that’s apparently barely worth mentioning. Of course, I kid, but Henry’s dominance is amazing. The best WRs have just a fraction over 100 fantasy points through 5 games.

3 Franchise Records

Alvin Kamara picked a good week to finally put up a performance worthy of his first-round draft status. While he’s been OK this year, this week was his first game over 20 fantasy points, his most receiving yards in a game, his most yards from scrimmage in a game, and the most TDs he’s scored in a game all season. Along the way this week, he set three franchise records that are so very Kamara-esque. He had his 9^th game with a rushing and receiving TD, his 12^th game to go over 50 yards rushing and receiving, and his 19^th multiple TD game. Kamara now sits as the RB9 on the season, not a terrible spot to be in, but when you look at the draft capital you would have spent on the RB10 guy, James Robinson, it’s hard not to think that perhaps if you drafted Alvin Kamara, you definitely overpaid (so far). Hopefully, the Saints can keep him rolling when they return from their bye in Week 7.

10 Receptions for 189 Yards

Pardon me while I take a victory lap with Kadarius Toney’s performance on Sunday. Last week I called him as a sleeper who could turn in a top-10 performance, and he did just that. Toney led the Giants in targets for the second week in a row, seeing 13 targets where the second-highest total was only 5. Unfortunately for Toney and the Giants, the injury bug has hit them in a very serious way. Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones both exited the game and were carted off before halftime. Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard both missed their second consecutive game. Their offensive line is in shambles. 7 of their 11 opening day starters are now out with injury, leaving a team that was on the upswing for a moment reeling. Toney is now probably their best offensive weapon, and despite only having Mike Glennon throwing to him for now, he’s probably in line for another high-volume game next week against the Rams, though I hesitate to start him against that passing defense. Looking at their numbers on the season, however, the Rams are giving up the 15^th most fantasy points to opposing WRs and are susceptible to giving up good games to players with lots of targets.