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It's hard to believe that we're approaching the end of the first month of the NFL season already. We finally have enough games completed to start to pick up on player trends around the league. For now, I'm focused on Quarterbacks and Running Backs, but we will go over all the positions on tonight's podcast. Trending players will have a three-week fantasy performance that is either going up or going down, and we'll examine why that's the case and what we expect out of that player going forward.

Quarterbacks

Sam Darnold (Week 1: 19.06, Week 2: 20.50, Week 3: 25.26) - Darnold has the Panthers rolling with a 3-0 start. He’s only thrown 1 INT so far, and found the end zone three times on the ground, which is always something that you like to see from your fantasy QB. He’s also throwing the ball a decent amount, averaging just over 35 attempts per game with 24 completions per game. Darnold has not played the toughest competition so far, but has plenty of easy matchups coming up with games against PHI, NYG, and ATL all coming up well before his bye week. If you’re streaming QBs, you should love the floor that the QB12 on the season can give you. If you’re in a super flex league, then Darnold is easily an every week starter. Carolina’s strong rushing attack has helped him tremendously. His advanced passing stats are far better this year than they have been in his career.

Justin Herbert (Week 1: 14.38, Week 2: 16.72, Week 3: 30.84) - Herbert had a very slow start to the season after finishing last year as the ROY. He seemed unable to get the Chargers offense going in the first two weeks, scoring only 37 points on offense total. Last week he redeemed himself with 4 touchdowns through the air, one of which was on a game winning 4th quarter drive in their victory over the Chiefs. Herbert is owned in 90% of Fleaflicker leagues, meaning he’s not going to be on the streaming radar. If you drafted him, the urge to push the panic button should be subsiding. Herbert currently sits as the QB13 through three games, but you can safely expect him to finish well inside the top 10 by the end of the season with more performances like he turned in against the Chiefs.

Jared Goff (Week 1: 29.92, Week 2: 19.44, Week 3: 9.08) - Goff has displayed a classic downward trend for the first three weeks of the season. He started off very hot statistically in his first game, getting lots of garbage time points, finishing as the QB3 in Week 1 and providing some hope for Lions fans. But as all good Lions fans know, their hopes were dashed very quickly as the Lions lost the next two games as well. Goff has trended down in completions, attempts, and yardage in each subsequent game, even with plenty of garbage time opportunities in Week 2. While he hasn’t played particularly badly, it’s clear that there just isn’t much talent around him to support big games outside of some fluky garbage time stuff. Goff remains on the streaming radar, but only in great matchups. His floor is probably too low to rely on him and you certainly cannot rely on garbage time points.

Running Backs

Najee Harris (Week 1: 5.40, Week 2: 16.60, Week 3: 21.20) - This one’s for Dave. OK, not really, but I think he likes it when we talk about Steelers players. So, Harris is a rookie, so a slow start was probably to be expected. What I did not expect to see what a stat line like he had last week when he had 14 carries and 19 targets (14 receptions). Harris is lined up to be a PPR monster with action like that. He ramped up from 1 to 5 to 14 receptions, so while you can’t expect numbers like 14 receptions every week, you can assume that he is going to have a relatively high receiving floor. Harris is being used on every down, and with lots of injuries to the receiving corps, it looks like the offense will run through him. There are very few every-down backs in the NFL, and Harris was taken in fantasy drafts with the potential he could be one of those in mind. It looks like everything is going as planned for the Steelers rookie.

David Montgomery (Week 1: 18.30, Week 2: 9.40, Week 3: 6.50) - Montgomery started out the season strong, gaining 108 yards on just 16 carries against the Rams defense, but has really fallen off a cliff along with the rest of the Bears offense since then. On the season, Montgomery is now averaging just 2.0 receptions per game, down from 3.6 last season. His rushing attempts and yards per game are also down from last year. What worries me most is that the Bears appear to have an anemic offense at best and might struggle to move the ball early in games, thus turning them one-dimensional late in games.Until the Bears figure out what they want to do at QB, whether it’s running out a game manager, or developing Justin Fields, Montgomery will be a touchdown dependent RB2/3 with a relatively low floor for a guy that is going to still see a high percentage of snaps.

Ezekiel Elliott (Week 1: 4.90, Week 2: 16.70, Week 3: 25.10) - Zeke has trended up in many stat categories, so he’s the perfect example for this segment. His carries have gone 11, 16, 17. His yardage is 33, 71, 95 and his TDs have gone 0, 1, 2. Zeke was obviously a first round pick and is being started regardless of his slow start, but it’s nice to see that he’s ramped his production up nicely and while Tony Pollard is going to get his share of touches, Zeke is still the primary back and will be in line for 15-20 touches on average every game. The only thing that worries me about Zeke is that the Cowboys have a tendency to go pass-heavy in some games, as evidenced in week 1, thus leaving Zeke with a very low floor for a premier RB. If he was more involved in the passing offense, I would be fine with any game script that the Cowboys are presented with. Unfortunately so far this year, he has 2.3 receptions per game, down from 3.5 just a year ago, and way down from his career high of 5.1 in 2018 when he led the league in touches. 51 touches through 3 games is not what you drafted Zeke for, so you’re going to have to hope he does a lot with the touches he does get.

Through 3 weeks we are 6-3 on the official drinkfive picks!  Insert the “Its not much but its honest work” meme.  We are turning a small profit and I am looking forward to building on it in week 4! Underdogs and unders have been extremely profitable through the first 3 weeks. Dogs are 30-18 ATS (62.5%) with away dogs seeing the best profitability at 19-10 ATS (65.52%). Unders have also been incredibly profitable with a 28-20 record to the under (58.3%).  There are a couple of things I want to mention related to this incredible start; first, when betting underdogs, in particular short dogs, I advise putting a small portion of your bankroll on the money line. This is a great way to build extra bankroll and take advantage of plus money bets. Second, sports betting is not easy and trends are great for extra edges, but we have to be wary of regression. This is why sticking to a strategy is important. You’re going to ride some highs and lows, but trying to play both sides of the market is a recipe for disaster. I’m seeing some incredible value on dogs again this week so without further a due…

Seattle +3 at San Francisco:

This is a buy-low spot on Seattle as they are coming off of two losses in a row. Admittedly this line is a bit chalky with 72% of the bets and 77% of the money coming in on the Seahawks. I have this at +3.5 and my recommendation is to hold off and shop around for the hook if you can find it. That being said I am making it an official play +3. This is also a great spot to throw a bit of money on the money line currently at +130. First and foremost, this is a division game and I love taking division dogs. Division games provide an extra edge for underdogs because the teams are very familiar with one another, and GM’s build their teams to win divisions so they match up well regardless of record. I am betting on Russell Wilson in this one! He is 27-10 ATS (70%) as a road dog and 26-14-4 ATS (65%) off a loss. The extra edge is that he has never lost 3 games in a row in his entire career. I simply can’t pass up taking Wilson in a rare underdog spot.

Baltimore +1/ML at Denver:

Hopefully, you jumped on this one earlier in the week. I like Baltimore to win this game regardless, but the line is flipping and the Ravens will be the favorite before kickoff. This was an early week bet for me at Baltimore +1.5 and a little on the money line as well. I still like it here with Baltimore still showing as a slight dog. A small tidbit to mention when betting on this game. If the line flips and the spread is anything between a PK and -1.5 I would recommend looking at the money line instead of the spread. Even if that means paying a little more juice it protects you from losing the bet completely if Baltimore wins by 1. This is another chalky dog play with 74% of the bets and 80% of the money coming in on the Ravens. Ultimately, I think the Ravens were teased up when they opened as dogs, and are probably in a lot of money line parlays too. This explains the heavy action, but regardless I like other edges here outside of what the market is showing is the public play. Denver has been playing very well and Teddy Bridgewater has looked incredible, which is why now is the time to sell high on them. The Broncos look good, but then again look at the teams they have played; Giants, Jags, and Jets. The Ravens are a big step up in class compared to those teams. Harbaugh is another edge I like in this game. He is 58% as a road dog, including 4-1 with Lamar Jackson, but beyond that, he is significantly better than his counterpart Vic Fangio which could be the difference in what bookmakers are saying will be a coin flip game.

Minnesota +2 vs Cleveland:

I am back in my contrarian comfort zone with this pick. Minnesota is only getting 38% of the bets and 30% of the money this week when they play host to the Cleveland Browns. While Cleveland has the better record, they have not necessarily been the more impressive team. Sure, week 1 was a fight for the ages and for 3 quarters the Browns looks good, but ultimately, they came up short against Elite talent again. They followed up that disappointing loss with an uninspiring win against Houston and a drumming of the Chicago Bears; two severely bad teams that don’t earn them any merit from me. On the other hand, the Vikings are literally only a couple of plays away from starting 3-0. An OT loss to Cincinnati with a questionable fumble call and a missed field goal against Arizona in week 2. The fact that this game is in Minnesota makes all the difference. Mike Zimmer is 35-21-1 ATS (62.5%) at home and 9-4 ATS (69.2%) as a home dog.  Kirk Cousins has actually been playing very well and Dalvin Cook is looking to be back from injury. I don’t have faith that the Cleveland defense is complete enough to cover all the ways the Vikings can attack them. The only way I see this going south for the Vikings is if Cleveland jumps out to a big early lead.