Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

 

Folks, this is what we have been preparing for!

 

We have reached the last week of the NFL season, and the last week of the Confidence Pool. If you have been following along with my picks, you should be in pretty good shape right now and just need one more solid week to clinch a win in your season-long pool. But hey, might as well throw in a weekly payout on top of that as well, right?

 

Normally, Week 17 is always a tricky one. With only one week to go, playoff spots and seeds are almost entirely figured out already, which means that star players end up getting a Sunday off. Obviously, this adds a degree of difficulty when making your Confidence Pool picks.

 

Not this year!

 

Heading into the final week of the season it seems like only 2 or 3 of the 12 playoff seeds have been determined. No need to worry about whether Tom Brady will be in all game – he will. Will Patrick Mahomes be under center from start to finish in KC? Absolutely!

 

It has been another great football season! Thank you all for following along all year!

 

We’ll see you in September!

 

WEEK 17 – HERE WE GO!!

 

(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)

16 – NEW ENGLAND over Miami – I’m pretty sure the Patriots could play their practice squad and still win this one.

15 – KANSAS CITY over Los Angeles Chargers – This may be the last game with the Chargers as we know them – I see big changes ahead.

14 – MINNESOTA over Chicago – Take a deep breath, Bears fans…its almost over!

13 – DALLAS over Washington – The Cowboys should be able to pull out an easy win to end the year … buuuuut …

12 – Philadelphia over NEW YORK GIANTS – …the Eagles will still win their game and win the NFC East.

11 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Arizona – After revamping The Curse of the Super Bowl loser, the Rams appear to be stuck in salary cap hell for the next few years, so this may be the last taste of victory they have for a while!

10 – New Orleans over CAROLINA – It’s a close call with the Bears, but I think the Panthers, with everything they have gone through, may be the most disappointing team this year.

9 – HOUSTON over Tennessee – The division is wrapped up, but the Texans are still playing for the 3 seed.

8 – SEATTLE over San Francisco – The 9ers were one of the last teams to lose a game this year, and now they may not even win their division.

7 – Green Bay over DETROIT – The Packers are still playing for the 1 seed in the NFC, that’s bad news for the Lions.

6 – BUFFALO over New York Jets – The Bills are set at the 5 seed in the AFC, but still should be able to pull one out against the Jets.

5 – BALTIMORE over Pittsburgh – Baltimore is in rest mode, but the allure of knocking the Steelers out of the playoffs is still something for them to play for.

4 – Oakland over DENVER – It’s a crazy scenario, but my BOLD PREDICTION to end the 2019 season is that THE RAIDERS WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS THIS YEAR.

3 – TAMPA BAY over Atlanta – One more chance for the Falcons to make me look like an idiot this year.

2 – Indianapolis over JACKSONVILLE – It’s funny that both these teams are out of playoff contention, but the outcome still matters to the Raiders playoff hopes!

1 – CINCINNATI over Cleveland – Now that they have locked up the first pick in the draft, the Bengals can win a game without sacrificing their future.

 

It’s early May 2020, and the only major sport that has yet to be affected in a significant way in America is the NFL. This is mostly due to it being a fall sport. The NFL has been able to plow forward with Free Agency and the Draft without even really slowing down, but that’s all just paperwork anyways. How will Covid-19 actually affect the NFL? Nobody knows, but in the spirit of my in-season column, Statistically (in)Significant, I’m going to go ahead and wildly speculate on 5 scenarios for the 2020 NFL season.

 

Scenario 1: The NFL goes on as planned, overcoming the enormous logistical challenges related to Covid-19. The schedule will be released tomorrow and it’s set in stone. Opening day goes on as planned on Thursday, September 10^th with the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs hosting the game. All of the games are played with little or no fans in the stands, but at all of the stadiums we’re used to seeing. It’s very creepy for the first few weeks, but by October everyone is making jokes about it and we’re all used to it. Thanksgiving has the usual 3 games, we get all of our Thursday night football, Monday night football and when the playoffs start, we get a super-sized wild card weekend. The Vikings keep piping in crowd noise, just like back at the old dome.

 

Scenario 2: The NFL is the only game in town, and they get creative. Still no fans, but without any college football going on, the NFL takes over Saturday by the end of September. We get 7 different game slots every single weekend. Football is the only thing that anybody can talk about for months. The NFL is bigger than ever. Without having to worry about fans’ schedules, Goodell calls an audible and they start flexing Monday Night Football games halfway through the season. The 9 different game slots that are now available for Thanksgiving weekend (all watchable games thanks to flex scheduling) results in a bump in the divorce rate. Lawyers are thrilled, network execs are thrilled, and people who aren’t football fans really get sick of all of us. The Vikings keep piping in crowd noise.

 

Scenario 3: The NFL season starts late. This one has already been laid out by the league, stating they could start as late as October 15^th. Bye weeks are eliminated, unmercifully for the players. The week between the championship games and the Super Bowl is eliminated, mercifully for the fans. The Bears and Packers both host games during brutal cold or blizzards during late January or early February. The Super Bowl is played on February 28^th, the latest ever. The Oscars are scheduled for that day and there’s a brief standoff between the movie industry and the NFL. We know who’s going to win that one. NASCAR gets the Daytona 500 interrupted by the second round of the playoffs. Both of the top seeds who had a playoff bye make the Super Bowl because it’s insane to expect a professional football team to play 18 straight weeks without any sort of relief. Maybe teams rest players in smaller groups later in the season, driving fantasy managers insane.

 

Scenario 4: The NFL starts, either on time, or in some sort of delayed fashion, and cannot finish the season. The dreaded second wave of Covid-19 comes and we’re all under stay-at-home orders for the last couple months of the year. Far too many players and support staff contract the virus, and even Jerry Jones hosting the entire NFL inside a bubble in North Texas can’t save football. The season gets postponed at first, causing chaos throughout the fantasy football world. Smart commissioners who hashed out contingency plans before the season started feel vindicated, but all the people in their league complain about the result anyways. Chaos ensues, players hate the owners for making them play in (more) dangerous conditions. Some fans hate the players for refusing to play. Others hate the owners for making them play. The entire situation gets far too political and it turns people off to the NFL for years to come.

 

Scenario 5: There is no NFL season. There is no such thing as social distancing during a football game. Even without fans, it takes a couple hundred people to make a game happen and to broadcast it to the world. Lots of coaches, refs and support staff are older and would be in the at-risk category for complications if they contract Covid-19. How would we ensure everyone is safe? Let’s say, conservatively, each club has 100 people that need to be around each other on a regular basis to make this whole thing run. You also need a TV and officiating crew, as well as local medical personnel, so that’s 250 people per game. How often do you test? Once per week? That’s 80,000+ tests needed just so the NFL, a non-essential business, can get started. What happens when someone gets infected? What happens when a whole team gets it? Will players refuse to play if their opponents have tested positive, even if those people have been quarantined? Putting on the great spectacle that is the NFL is already a huge logistical challenge when there’s not pandemic going around. Completing a full season of 256 games plus 13 more playoff games, and, oh yeah, 64 more preseason games just might be too much to ask for when most of us might not even be able to go to a bar to watch any of these games. The crowd noise at Vikings Stadium finally falls silent.

You just drafted a shiny new team and you’re ready to just let the chalk go and start all the guys you drafted in the top half of the draft. Seems like a good idea, right? After all, you did draft the best team in your league. You did the research. You’re anxious to prove that, despite the lack of preseason, you, Football Nostradamus, know exactly what to do here.

 

Slow down. Just stop. It’s Week 1 and nobody has really been hit yet. This season is going to take some time for all the players to get used to it. So, here’s five players that are going to bust out week 1 and you should keep on your bench until they’re properly warmed up for the season.

 

Le’Veon Bell (NYJ) @ Buffalo – I can’t think of a greater disparity between the talent a player has and the level with which his coach does not want him around for no damn reason. Bell has had a rough time in New York and it’s not going to get any easier this week. When asked about what to expect the first week without real practice, Jeff Fisher said on Slow News Day, “There’s going to be a lot of balls on the ground…It’s hard to hang on to that brown thing.” Fisher is truly the 7-9 of NFL poets. However, he does have a point. My prediction this week is that Le’Veon Bell fumbles twice, is benched, and that Frank Gore will lead the Jets in carries week 1. Keep Bell on your bench and hope that he has better days ahead. Or gets traded. The second one is probably a better option for him.

 

Everyone but Christian McCaffrey and Josh Jacobs in the OAK @ CAR game. I say, with great confidence that these two players will combine for about 60% of the entire offensive output of this game. That leaves little else to be spread throughout the rest of the two teams. The Raiders are stuck with two rookie wideouts and one second-year guy. The Panthers have a brand new QB after riding the backup QB carousel most of the year last year. The featured back for both teams are likely to be used so heavily that production from a third player in this game will likely be a fluke at best. The Panthers gave up the 7^th fewest points to opposing TEs last year, so even Darren Waller is a risky start here. Just start McCaffrey or Jacobs if you have them and refer to your bench if you have anyone else in this game. That’s what they’re there for!

 

Leonard Fournette (TB) @ New Orleans – Going off the board as the #20 RB in half ppr (the new official scoring format of drinkfive.com), one might be fooled into thinking that Fournette is worthy of at least a flex start. Do not fall in to this trap! Fournette is firmly behind both Ronald Jones and LeSean McCoy on the Bucs depth chart. You must wait until Jones blows a protection and gets Brady sacked (now a felony offense in on the gulf coast of Florida) and McCoy reveals that he is not, in fact, Frank Gore, the ageless one. Only then will it be safe to start Fournette. Besides, I’m imagining a game where both teams throw the ball 40+ times in what could easily be the highest scoring game of the week.

 

Will Fuller (HOU) @ Kansas City – Fuller is entering this season, presumably, as the Texans #1 WR. He’s had success on the Texans in fits and starts, even putting up an absurd 50+ points in a game last year. There’s just one problem. Fuller has never taken the field as a pro without Deandre Hopkins also being on the field. This means that he has very rarely received the attention from opposing defenses that he’s about to get this year. The Chiefs gave up the second fewest points to opposing WRs last year. They’re also set to open the season all fired up from their Super Bowl win 7 months ago. If you can, steer clear of Will Fuller this week and let the Texans find their groove in the next couple of weeks, because it’s not happening on Thursday night.

 

Bold Bust of the Week:

 

Derrick Henry (TEN) @ Denver – Derrick Henry is notoriously a slow starter. Until last year, he didn’t crack 26 rushing yards in the first game of the season. He’s never had a game with 100+ rushing yards before week 4. Last year he did have a solid showing, but that was against Cleveland, and they’re, well, the Browns. This year the Titans face the Broncos to put a cap on week 1. The Broncos are suddenly without two of their best pass rushers, which leaves the door open for Ryan Tannehill to follow up his 2019 Comeback Player of the Year award with a big performance. You probably drafted Henry too high to bother listening to me, but keep him out of your daily fantasy lineups and remember that I told you so when he puts up fewer than 10 points in the season opener.