Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

3 More Touchdowns

Todd Gurley continues to set the league on fire, scoring another three touchdowns in San Francisco on Sunday. This time around, Gurley had a season low 19 touches en route to a paltry 26.6 points. Gurley's touchdown pace, now 14 in just 7 games, would put him at a league record 32 for the season, if he can keep it up. Realistically, LaDanian Tomlinson's single season record of 31 touchdowns is probably safe. Gurley is unlikely to play all 16 games if his team keeps winning - they currently have a 1.5 game lead for the #1 seed, and an incredible 4 game lead in their division already. To break Tomlinson's record, Gurley would likely need to increase his TD production. As someone who drafted Gurley #1 overall, I'm all for it. I just hope that Gurley doesn't sit out for week 16, as well as 17. That would truly be a fantasy football tragedy.

222 Consecutive Extra Points

Justin Tucker, the most accurate kicker in NFL history, finally missed an extra point. Tucker had converted his previous 222 attempts, over 102 games going back to the start of the 2012 season. Tucker's miss kept his team from tying the game at the end of the 4th quarter and the Saints beat the Ravens 24-23. The Ravens, Bengals and Browns losses combined to grant the Steelers first place in the AFC North, all during their bye week. Over in England, Marcus Mariota broke a career long streak of his own. Mariota threw his first interception in the red zone in his career. A career that has spanned 4 years now in 48 games, the streak was preceded by 41 passing TDs on 161 passing attempts with a 104.1 QB rating in the red zone. Like Tucker, Mariota also contributed to his team losing the game at the end of regulation. He's not the root cause, however - I put the blame on Coach Vrabel and the lack of Derrick Henry, as well as the ill-advised decision to desperately go for 2 when your team is winning on both sides of the ball.

35 Points per Game

Mitchell Trubisky leads the league in points per game over the last 4 games with 27.96 PPG. That's better than Gurley, Mahomes... everyone. I'll let that sink in for a moment. Bringing down that average is his performance in week 3 where he put up only 6.60 points. In the last 3 weeks, Trubisky is averaging 35 points per game. He's still only on a roster in 53% of Yahoo leagues, but will likely be a big pickup this week. Even if the Bears are losing (especially, really), they will be throwing the ball a lot. Trubisky has fewer than 31 pass attempts just once this season and he scored 43.46 points on the strength of 6 passing TDs in that outing. My point is that he's on hell of a tear and he's the perfect option for bye weeks coming up, because the Bears already were off during week 5.

7 games of 100 yards in a row

I do love keeping track of big streaks in the NFL. Earlier, we looked at some career long streaks that have ended, so let's go positive here. Adam Thielen now has 100 yards in each of the first 7 games this season and he's now one game short of tying Calvin Johnson's all time record of 8 games. Thielen is leading the league in receptions with 67, currently a 10 catch lead over 2nd place. He also leads in receiving yards with 822, though Julio Jones will go into tonight's game with 708 yards and I really could use a good performance, Julio. But I digress, The other streak is of course, Patrick Mahomes, who notched his 6th straight 300 yard game. He's up over 2200 passing yards on the season and on pace to break the 5000 yard mark. Mahomes is not technically a rookie, but that would smash Andrew Luck's rookie record of 4374 yards.

4 OT Games in 7 Weeks

Humor me for a moment while I examine the fantasy football relevance of the Cleveland Browns, who have now basically played a league leading 7.5 games on the season. This hasn't quite helped out the 2-4-1 Browns, but at least there's some bright spots on the team, unlike last year. Baker Mayfield has made the Browns look like a team again, but he's not very productive in fantasy football yet, averaging just over 17 points per game when he starts. A bright spot has been TE David Njoku, who is one of Mayfield's preferred targets. He has at least 50 receiving yards in the last 4 games, and a TD in each of the last two. He's now the TE9 on the season and can be started on a weekly basis. Finally, Nick Chubb seems like he'll settle into Carlos Hyde's empty spot just fine. Chubb had 80 yards and a TD on Sunday and had all but 5 of the team's rushing attempts. Chubb should be a decent RB2/Flex start for most of the season, with a lot of upside.

Trends are a topic that I like to get into once the football season has had enough time to let them develop properly. Looking back on the past few weeks can tell us a lot about the future fantasy production of players, in some cases. I've selected 2 players each from QB/RB/WR positions to take a look at what direction I think they are headed in for the last half of the season. Those players trending up can also be seen as good targets to try and acquire before the trade deadline in your league(s). Percentage owned is taken from Yahoo as of 10/24/18.

QB

Russell Wilson (92% owned, #22 QB, 104.52 fantasy pts total)

Week 4 @ARI (19/26, 172 yds, 0 TD, 8.98 pts)

Week 5 LAR (13/21, 198 yds, 3 TDs, 19.92 pts)

Week 6 @OAK (17/23, 222 yds, 3 TDs, 21.88 pts)

• A rough start for the former QB1 in fantasy, but just rested through a bye week and now with Doug Baldwin healthy and performing (6/8, 91 yds in Week 6), Tyler Lockett locked in as the WR2, and a 3-headed rushing attack that is starting to come together, we could see Wilson come back to life in the 2^nd half of the season. In Week 8 he goes up against a Detroit passing defense that has allowed 8 TDs over the past 3 games. Russell Wilson should continue to pick up speed over the next few weeks and come close to his initial value as a top QB to own and start in fantasy.

Mitchell Trubisky (66% owned, #8 QB, 142.26 fantasy pts total)

Week 4 TB (19/26, 354 yds, 6 TDs, 0 INTs, 43.46 pts)

Week 6 @MIA (22/31, 316 yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 28.34 pts)

Week 7 NE (26/50, 333 yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 33.42 pts)

• Trubisky has been an exceptional fantasy QB over the last 3 games that he has played, no question about it. The real question is whether or not these point totals are sustainable and if we should be worried about the rising trend of interceptions juxtaposed with the falling TDs. Both TB (#1) and NE (#7) are in the top 10 worst passing defenses in the league. He faces the Jets in Week 8, a middle of the road passing defense. I'm concerned about the trend above of less TDs and more INTs, but Trubisky is locked-in as a starting QB now in fantasy until he proves otherwise. He is definitely a SELL for me though, if you have another good option it may be worth it to find a trade partner before he comes back down to Earth.

RB

David Johnson (100% owned, #11 RB, 82.10 fantasy pts total)

Week 5 @SF (18/55 rush/yds, 2 TDs, 2/16 rec/yds, 19.10 pts)

Week 6 @MIN (18/54 rush/yds, 1 TD, 2/15 rec/yds, 10.90 pts)

Week 7 DEN (14/39 rush/yds, 3/31 rec/yds, 7.00 pts)

• At first glance, #11 RB isn’t so bad, but it is for David Johnson. Drafted top 3 for the past few years, Johnson enjoyed much success with former coach Bruce Arians calling the shots in Arizona. Johnson also had a seasoned QB under center. He may be able to break the top 10 and start performing at a high level again with the firing of OC Mike McCoy and switch to one of Arians’ pupils, Byron Leftwich, taking over offensive play calling duties. David Johnson faces a porous opponent Week 8 in the 49ers, who are currently the 7^th worst rushing defense, allowing just under 100 yards and 1 TD per game on average. Things should turn around immediately for Johnson and get even better after the Cardinals' bye week. This is likely the lowest that David Johnson's value will be for the next few years.

Latavius Murray (79% owned, #24 RB, 60.70 fantasy pts total)

Week 5 @PHI (11/42 rush/yds, 2/14 rec/yds, 5.6 pts)

Week 6 ARI (24/155 rush/yds, 1 TD, 1/3 rec/yds, 21.80 pts)

Week 7 @NYJ (15/69 rush/yds, 2 TDs, 2/14 rec/yds, 20.30 pts)

• The latest news on Dalvin Cook is that he will be out through the Vikings’ Week 10 bye. That means Murray has at least two more weeks to lead the backfield, and he has been impressing with good consistency over the past couple of games. Week 8’s opponent, the New Orleans Saints, have been great against the run (no one has gone over 80 yards against them) but Murray will still have some opportunities at the goal-line to collect fantasy points and then faces up against a generous Lions’ rushing defense. With bye weeks and injuries hitting now over the middle of the season, Murray is an excellent play until Cook gets healthy enough to return.

WR

Emmanuel Sanders (96% owned, #3 WR, 94.72 fantasy pts total)

Week 5 @NYJ (9/72 rec/yds, 7.20 pts)

Week 6 LAR (7/115 rec/yds, 1 TD, 17.50 pts)

Week 7 @ARI (6/102 rec/yds, 1 TD, 21.32 pts)

• Sanders was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week in Week 7, and he has clearly been the best WR on the Broncos this season. In fact, he is sitting right at #3 among all WRs in fantasy points so far in standard leagues. There was some concern over his ankle injury late in the game against the Cardinals, but he has since been removed from the injury report and should be good to go against the Chiefs in Week 8 who are giving up a ton of yards to opposing receivers. Sanders should continue to feast!

Jordy Nelson (71% owned, #37 WR, 52.30 fantasy pts total)

Week 4 CLE (5/48 rec/yds, 1 TD, 12.80 pts)

Week 5 @LAC (4/43 rec/yds, 1 TD, 10.30 pts)

Week 6 SEA (2/6 rec/yds, 0.60 pts)

• Nelson has had a big game this season (Week 3: 6/173 rec/yds) and scored 3 TDs so far, but his role has been chaotic at best on the Raiders – certainly an accurate reflection of the state of the team in general. With former WR1 Amari Cooper having been traded to the Cowboys, Jordy Nelson should immediately take over that position and his share of targets should increase. In weeks 3 (23.3 pts) and 4 (12.8 pts) Nelson had 8 targets each and his highest fantasy totals of the season. We can use this as a measuring stick to determine that his fantasy production going forward should be between 10 and 20 points per game in a standard league Grab him off the wire or try and buy him low if possible.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

8 Straight Games of 100+ Receiving Yards

I've been keeping track of a couple of streaks here in the column lately, and both of them were extended on Sunday. First off, Adam Thielen matched Calvin Johnson's mark of 8 straight games with 100 receiving yards. It's also the new record for the start of a season. Thielen is the top scoring WR in fantasy this year (without ever hitting the 20 point mark), but his streak still comes up well short of Calvin Johnson's in one noticeable aspect. Megatron had 329 more yards during his streak, which is 35% more than Thielen. Also on Sunday, Patrick Mahomes continued his streak of 300 yard passing games, making it 7 in a row. He's still a couple games short of Drew Brees' record of 9 games, which he's done twice. Mahomes now leads the NFL with 2526 Passing Yards and 26 TDs. He's throwing a TD every 9.1% of his pass attempts and is leading all fantasy QBs by over 3 points per game.

3 Straight Games with 2 TDs

James Conner continues to be a marvel for the Steelers and now sits atop the crowded tier 2 RBs in fantasy points. Todd Gurley still has 41% more points than Conner, more on that in a moment. Conner's two TDs on Sunday made it three games in a row with two TDs, which is a first in franchise history. Quite a remarkable feat on a team like the Steelers, who have seen their share of hall of fame running backs. Conner is averaging 29.5 points per game over that stretch, which has prompted a lot of "Le'Veon who?" talk this year. Personally, I don't think the fighting is necessary or helpful. It may not be good from a fantasy perspective, but imagine the embarrassment of riches the Steelers will have at their disposal for the second half of the season when Bell finally reports.

15 TDs on the Season

Todd Gurley already has 15 combined rushing and receiving touchdowns in only 8 games. It could have been 16, and would have been nice for my fantasy team, but I applaud Gurley on his smart move. In the middle of a play, he was well aware that the only way to lose the game was to put the ball in the hands of Aaron Rodgers. Maybe Ty Montgomery can learn something from Gurley. Thus, the Rams are now 8-0, in part because their players are more aware of the game situation than their opponents. Maybe the Steelers and Browns can learn something too! Back to Gurley, he has more TDs than any other player had last season (Gurley had 19), and more than all but 8 players' season totals going back to 2012. He already has passed everyone's total from 2015. Gurley may have passed on a touchdown on Sunday, but he's still going to have a good shot at the single season record of 31.

2550 Career Points

I certainly wind up with a lot of entries about kickers for as much as I like to poke fun at them. This time though, it's definitely out of respect for a future hall of famer. Adam Vinatieri, who told his family not to travel to Oakland because he wasn't even sure if he'd play this week, now owns the career scoring record with 2550 total points. He's made 829 of his 846 extra point attempts, seen the extra point move back to no longer be a gimme, and still maintained a 94.4% conversion rate. He's made 573 field goals on 679 attempts and has been kicking since before South Park was a television show. Congrats to Adam Vinatieri, the most prolific kicker in a game that, by its name, you would think would have a lot more to do with kicking.

8 Top D/STs all Under 50% Owned

Through Sunday's games, the weekly leaders at D/ST once again prove that relying on one team every week is not likely to work, but then again, it's hard to tell what will. Of the top 8 D/STs, Washington & Carolina are the most owned at 45%. Only one of those teams is owned in our drinkfive league. It feels counter-intuitive when you have teams like the Rams, Texans and Bears that you don't want to let go, but streaming defenses is the way to go. The top 4 point scoring teams all matched up against teams that gave up the 12th most points, or more. Pay attention to matchups and the waiver wire and don't miss out on these points that wind up sitting on the waiver wire. Or, we could just get rid of the randomness of a kicker and defense from fantasy football altogether.

The trade deadline was yesterday, and it made a great wooshing sound as it went past. The NFL is considerably more active with trades during the season compared to when we started the site back in 2011. The trade deadline may not result in moves that tip the balance of the league, like in the MLB, but there’s plenty of fantasy relevant moves that just might tip the balance in your league. First, we’ll start with two trades that happened in the last couple weeks, then the three fantasy relevant trades that happened yesterday.

Carlos Hyde, Browns to the Jaguars – This trade was made in an attempt to fill in for Leonard Fournette, who can't stay on the field this year. The Jaguars really need help in their backfield, and Hyde is a reasonable upgrade and will split work with T.J. Yeldon. The Jaguars have shown that they cannot lean on the passing game. They have won only one game this season without Fournette in the lineup. Long story short, the Jags need to have a strong run game to have any chance to return to the AFC Championship game this year.

                Jaguars Fantasy Impact – The Jaguars are on bye this week, giving Hyde an extra week to get up to speed. Reports are that Fournette will also try to return for Week 10, but that’s far from certain, so we’ll see what the injury reports say next week. If Fournette returns, this would likely be at the expense of T.J. Yeldon’s touches. Hyde and Fournette will likely share the load, though both have been underwhelming this year. Fournette has just 90 scrimmage yards in two games and is a 50/50 chance to re-injure himself as hamstring injuries can be tricky. Hyde got only 6 carries against the Eagles last week, though it was just his first game as a Jaguar. This year, Hyde has a career low 3.3 yards per carry, and only had 6 catches in 6 games in Cleveland, after getting 59 last season. Hyde’s bright spot is that he’s found the end zone 5 times this year.   TL:DR; Hyde and Fournette will split work until one of them shows any glimpses of competence. T.J. Yeldon is the odd man out, IF Fournette plays. That’s (literally) a big if.

                Browns Fantasy Impact – Not only has the Browns backfield been shaken up by this move, but now they will have a new Head Coach and OC to work with on Sunday. It’s tough to say what the new crew will do, but they would be well advised to keep feeding Nick Chubb. Getting Chubb the ball is perhaps the entire point of this trade in the first place. Chubb has taken the ball 18 times in each of the last 2 games, tacking on 2 receptions as well. He leads the league with 6.1 yards per carry, so I expect Chubb to continue getting the ball, depending on game flow. The next 3 opponents for the Browns are the Chiefs, Falcons and Bengals – all teams that are in the top 8 for giving up points to opposing RBs. Duke Johnson used to play the change of pace role in this offense, but he has been a ghost most of the year. He’s lagging well behind last year’s numbers in every category, and his usage did not pick up in the last two weeks with Hyde gone. Johnson is talented and available in a lot of leagues, but cannot be counted on yet.                        TL:DR; Chubb’s stock is way up with this trade and could flirt with low RB1 status the next few weeks. Duke Johnson should be a worthy PPR flex play, but cannot be counted on for now.

Amari Cooper, Raiders to Cowboys – The story of this trade is the price that the Cowboys were willing to pay for Cooper. This doesn’t matter much for fantasy, but it is nice to see someone get completely dominated in a trade, just like you see in your own league. The Cowboys are desperate for a deep threat to relieve some pressure for Ezekiel Elliot, but this is unlikely to be the answer. In Oakland, the fire sale is in full effect after the trade of Khalil Mack to start the season.John Gruden is stockpiling 1^st round draft picks like they’re freeze-dried meals and Y2K is coming up. To be fair, it’s perhaps the only sensible move that the Raiders have made since Gruden took charge, and it’s mostly because it’s possible this goes down as one of the worst trades the Cowboys have made, considering this could wind up being a top-10 pick.

                Cowboys Fantasy Impact – Cooper obviously slides in as an every down receiver, and is probably in a better situation than he was in Oakland. He still hasn’t been active in Dallas, but there’s no fantasy relevant WR that he’s even displacing. Even so, I don’t expect Cooper to do very much. For a guy who was once thought of as a top 10 WR in the league (drafted 4^th overall in 2015), he’s fallen off a cliff. Since Week 9 of 2016, Cooper has only 4 games with 100+ yards during that span of 30 games. He reached that level 9 times in his first 24 games.                        TL:DR; Don’t count on Cooper to be fantasy relevant, and he’s not displacing anyone else on the Cowboys, so there’s no fantasy impact? I’m officially confused by this move.

                Raiders Fantasy Impact – The Raiders have only had one game since this trade, and against the Colts, when they were down by multiple scores and still put up 28 points, there were just 7 receptions spread among the 4 WRs that played in the game. Jordy Nelson had just one catch and cannot be counted on. Brandon LaFell is not going to pick up the slack. Jalen Richard wound up with 8 receptions, and it looks like he might be the only fantasy player on the Raiders who is making positive changes.       TL:DR; The Raiders are bad and they should feel bad. Richard might fill in and be a flex in PPR leagues, but seriously, don’t rely on the Raiders to win fantasy games.

Demaryius Thomas, Broncos to Texans – Now we’re on to the deadline-day trades. Thomas’s name was associated with several teams, but he wound up going to Houston to join one of the hottest teams in the league (5 wins in a row counts, right?). The Texans are clearly better when they have two deep threats, and with Will Fuller on the IR, they had a big hole to fill. Good on the Texans for going out and getting a reasonable replacement. Thomas has struggled this year, but he’s getting a large upgrade at QB. The Broncos are also in a partial rebuilding phase, and have been riding Emmanuel Sanders all year anyways. Courtland Sutton is a good looking rookie who needs more time on the field, so this move makes a lot of sense from both sides.

                Texans Fantasy Impact – This impact should be pretty straightforward. Will Fuller just put big numbers last week, then tore his ACL at the end of the game.Thomas will attempt to be a direct replacement for Fuller. Keke Coutee, if healthy, could be a wild card that takes a bit of work from Thomas, however there’s probably room for 3 WRs to be fantasy relevant if Deshaun Watson is playing as well as he can.           TL:DR; Fuller is out, Thomas is in. Coutee could be a wild card, but I would only count on the healthiest WR on the Texans, aside from that Hopkins guy. He’s pretty good.

                Broncos Fantasy Impact – It’s hard to increase Emmanuel Sanders’ performance on this season, considering he’s the #7 WR on the season. I expect Sanders to remain steady as he’s clearly the favorite target of Case Keenum. Courtland Sutton is the story here. The rookie has made several flashy plays this season, and now will be up for a lot more work than before. Sutton’s ceiling this year has been 3 receptions, so there’s a lot of room for growth there. He’s also averaging 19.1 yards per catch, so increased snaps, targets and receptions will help stretch the offense and will open up space for both Sanders and the running backs. The next 3 matchups for the Broncos is a mixed bag, so don’t expect immediate results.               TL:DR; Sanders remains a top 10 option, Sutton is now the new rookie hotness and he can quickly become a fantasy relevant WR.

Ty Montgomery, Packers to Ravens – This is a trade that was definitely not going to happen last Saturday, but was pretty obviously coming by Tuesday, due to Montgomery basically being blamed (rightfully so) for the Packers loss to the Rams. Montgomery’s boneheaded move got him traded for just a 2020 seventh round pick. The only way that could feel worse is if he was getting sent to the Raiders. The Ravens probably didn’t need another RB on their team, but Ozzie Newsome knows a bargain when he sees one.

                Ravens Fantasy Impact – I’m don’t think that Montgomery is worthy of weekly fantasy starts, considering that he’s going to be firmly behind Alex Collins on the depth chart. I don’t expect him to take much work away from Collins, so you can relax there if Collins is on your team. Buck Allen looks like the odd man out with this move, but since he’s not very relevant this year, that’s not a big change. Montgomery is only owned in 17% of Yahoo leagues, and that’s probably right. He can stay on the waiver wire for now.            TL:DR; Alex Collins stays the same, Buck Allen will lose snaps, but Montgomery isn’t even worth owning, so overall, there’s not much change.

                Packers Fantasy Impact – The Packers backfield has long been thought of as a potential El Dorado, but usually winds up being fool’s gold instead. Montgomery’s 6 touches per game will need to go somewhere, yes, but adding 6 touches per game to Aaron Jones is not how this math is going to work out. Yes, Jones is the back to own on the Packers, but the Packers never seem to commit to the run, or even one RB. Jamaal Williams also stands to benefit, but much like Buck Allen, he wasn’t fantasy relevant in the first place. This little bump is unlikely to change things on that front. I think the real impact of this move will be the message that’s sent to the rest of the team.                 TL:DR; Don’t fuck with Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Jones needs to get the ball more, but probably won’t. Still, he should be rostered everywhere.

Golden Tate, Lions to Eagles – Wrapping up our trade discussion is the best offensive player to be traded on Tuesday, Golden Tate. Tate gets the rare double bye week this season, which sucks for those of you with him on your team. Tate is averaging 10.5 points per game this season, which is good for top 25 in both average and overall points. This is the one trade that I wasn’t expecting. The Lions are looking to get something out of Tate instead of letting him walk at the end of the year. They know they aren’t likely to move on to the playoffs. The Eagles are trying to get rid of their Super Bowl hangover, and as a person who has had hangovers before, sometimes you just gotta try something different.

                Eagles Fantasy Impact – This is the toughest impact for me to figure out. I don’t expect Alshon Jeffery to lose any work. He has 4 TDs in 5 games and is averaging nearly 70 yards per game this year. Nelson Agholor is likely the odd man out, as he plays in the slot like Tate, but is not nearly as prolific as a run after the catch guy. Tate is averaging nearly 3 yards per catch more than Agholor, and as a slot receiver, those are all yards that Tate has earned by himself. Still, I’m not sure how this situation is really going to shake out for the 4-4 Eagles.            TL:DR; Tate will remain a WR3, likely at the expense of Nelson Agholor. Don’t expect Alshon Jeffery’s value to go up or down significantly. Also I’m the least certain about this than any other team listed here.

                Lions Fantasy Impact – The Lions are going to continue throwing the ball a lot. Stafford has 273 yards per game this year, and that’s a lot of yardage to go around. Marvin Jones is likely to see a small boost in his targets. I expect last year’s rookie Kenny Golladay to be the biggest beneficiary of this move, similar to Courtland Sutton. Look for Brandon Powell, an undrafted free agent and punt returner to get a look in the slot. Realistically, Theo Riddick is the one who’s likely to absorb those passes that are over the middle, short yardage, and third down work.                 TL:DR; Jones and Golladay will see  a bump, Powell is going to get a look, but isn’t fantasy relevant. Riddick is going to be a PPR nut once again.