Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve finally been able to watch meaningful pro football again, unless you, like Jim Carrey, believe nothing has any meaning. It was an exciting first week, with several strong rookie performances. There were hits and misses from me on what to do in the opening week with those rookies, but that’ll be the case every week, and overall I’ll take last week’s results.

I was spot on with the top-5 picks of most rookie drafts (Corey Davis, Dalvin, Fournette, McCaffrey and Mixon), but I was off on Kenny Golladay and was way too tepid with my expectations for Kareem Hunt who wound up the top scoring fantasy player. I had Tarik Cohen pegged as a sleeper for week 1, but not even I expected the outburst he put up against Atlanta. My biggest miss of the week was probably Zay Jones, who I had pegged for 5+ catches, and he wound up with just 1-for-21 on 4 targets. I should get a clearer picture of who these guys are as the year progresses, but I’d chalk up week one as a success. Let’s dive in to what to expect in week 2…

Rookies to Start:

RB Kareem Hunt, KC (Wk. 2: vs. Phi.): I liked Hunt as a season-long option, but was unsure about how he would do last week. I was wrong to be unsure. After fumbling on his first touch of the game, he was fantastic and dismantled the Patriots’ defense. He might never duplicate the point total he put up on opening night, but there is no way you can sit him after what he did in New England. You should temper expectations a little bit with his matchup against Philly. The Eagles allowed the 12^th fewest RB points last year, but Hunt should have no problem returning RB2 value this week.

RB Leonard Fournette, JAX (Wk. 2: vs. Ten.): The Jaguars are going to run Fournette until the wheels fall off. He handled 29 touches last week (20 in the first half!), and had success against a stout Texans defensive front. The Titans gave up 76 yards to Marshawn Lynch in week one, and Lynch hadn’t played in an NFL game since January of 2016. If Leonard approaches the kind of volume he saw in week one, he’s got a solid shot of ending as an RB1 again.

WR Cooper Kupp, LAR (Wk. 2: vs. Was.): The Rams will likely have to throw a bit more this week if Todd Gurley continues to be as ineffective as he was on Sunday, and Kupp was targeted  a team-high 6 times in the opener. Sammy Watkins will likely be shadowed by Josh Norman in this matchup, and Washington ranked 29^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat on throws to #2 receivers last season. They also just gave up 6-86-1 to Nelson Agholor last weekend. I like Kupp more than I did in week 1, when he posted 4-76-1. He should be targeted early and often, and he could easily wind up as a WR2 this week, especially in PPR leagues.

Borderline Rookies:

RB Dalvin Cook, MIN (Wk. 2: @Pit.): Cook was impressive in the opener, but it was against a bad Saints defense that ranked 23^rd in run defense DVOA a season ago. The Steelers ranked 11^th in that same stat, and they held Isaiah Crowell to a 17-33 rushing line on Sunday. Cook should still be involved in the passing game, but I’d be surprised if he approached the 137 scrimmage yards he posted on Monday night. Volume will keep him in play as a RB2/Flex option, and you’re probably starting him, but there some reason for pause this week.

RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR (Wk. 2: vs. Buf.): Week one was both good and bad for McCaffrey. On the one hand, he was given 18 touches and was an integral part of the offense as promised. On the other hand, Jonathan Stewart remained the goal line back and saw more touches than CMC, and the game script won’t always be positive enough for them to combine for 38 touches. Head coach Ron Rivera has already talked about not wanting to “wear his batteries out,” so I’m not sure I’d expect the volume to continue at that level. This week CMC gets to face the Bills, who were really bad against RBs last year (allowed 5^th most points), but they did hold the Jets’ backs to 13-38 on the ground and 8-37 through the air on 11 targets in week one. Granted, it’s the Jets, who are terrible. At the end of the day, McCaffrey’s outlook in week 2 is similar to what it was in week one. He’s an upside RB2/Flex option with a plus matchup. His speed and playmaking ability gives him week-winning potential, but he could just put up another 80 scoreless yards.

RB Tarik Cohen, CHI (Wk. 2: @TB): Cohen was a shock to even most Bears fans last weekend, and while his results may have been due to a sweet matchup with the Falcons, he’s clearly going to be a featured part of the offense going forward. The Bears are desperate for playmakers in the passing game, especially with Kevin White done for the season yet again, and Jordan Howard demonstrated once again that it won’t be him after dropping a game-tying touchdown in the closing seconds. Enter Tarik Cohen, who turned a ridiculous 12 targets into 8-47-1, while also rushing for 66 yards. He isn’t going to put up those numbers every single week, but his skill set and the way the Bears will deploy him reminds me a bit of Dion Lewis from two years ago with the Patriots. Before getting hurt that year, Lewis averaged 5 catches and 89 scrimmage yards per game, and he scored 4 TDs in 7 games. If Cohen continues to be used like this and stays healthy, he has legitimate top-15 RB upside in PPR leagues. He gets another favorable matchup this week against Tampa Bay. We haven’t seen the Bucs yet this season, but last year they allowed the 11^th most fantasy points to RBs, and ranked 26^th in run defense DVOA and 26^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs. I doubt he sees another 12 targets, but Cohen is on the RB2 map in PPR leagues and a flex option in standard formats.

RB Chris Carson, SEA (Wk. 2: vs. SF): Seattle head coach Pete Carroll has already said that he expects Thomas Rawls to play this week, but I think it’s very possible that he’s eased in. If that’s the case, it’s Carson who would spell him on early downs, not Eddie Lacy. The Seahawks are a 2-touchdown favorite against the 49ers, so Carson would likely see extra work in the case of a blowout, and he impressed in limited opportunities against Green Bay. There is a very low floor here with Rawls back, but Carson is an upside flex option who could be a week-winner if things break his way. The 49ers allowed 3 more points per game to opposing RBs than any other team in the league last year, and allowed 27.8 to the Carolina backs in the opener. They also lost linebacker Rueben Foster to a high ankle sprain in that game. All Carson needs is the opportunity.

WR Corey Davis, TEN (Wk. 2: @Jax.): Davis came out with a strong debut after missing the entire preseason, posting 6-69 on a team-high 10 targets, despite playing fewer snaps than Rishard Matthews and Eric Decker. Davis played 42 snaps while Decker played 60 and Matthews played 52. Another week removed from his return, I’d expect Davis to play a higher snap percentage. The matchup is tougher this week, and he may have to lock horns with standout corner Jalen Ramsey. Hopefully he’s able to avoid the shadow treatment. The Jaguars allowed the 7^th fewest points to WRs in 2016. Given the tough scenario, a repeat of last week’s numbers would be a successful day, even with an increased snap count.

WR Kenny Golladay, DET (Wk. 2: @NYG): Golladay was a big-time performer in week one, with a 4-69-2 line while splitting WR3 snaps with TJ Jones. I’d expect that split to move even more in favor of Golladay going forward (Kenny outsnapped TJ 44-18 in week 1). Unfortunately for BabyTron (thanks @LateRoundQB), a repeat of Sunday’s performance will be hard to come by against the stingy Giants secondary. The Giants ranked 4^th in pass defense DVOA last year, and despite struggling to defend the Cowboys last week, they allowed just 2-43 to Dez Bryant on 9 targets. Golladay is a boom-or-bust WR3 option this week.

TE Evan Engram, NYG (Wk. 2: vs. Det.): Engram clearly has a prominent role in the Giants’ passing game, and he may actually get better with Odell Beckham back and drawing coverage away. Brandon Marshall struggled mightily in the opener, so Engram may get more red zone opportunities than expected. The Lions coughed up the 3^rd most TE points last year, so Engram should make for a reasonable streaming option this week whether OBJ is back in the lineup or not.

Rookies to Sit:

QB DeShone Kizer, CLE (Wk. 2: @Bal.): Kizer had some good moments in an impressive debut vs. Pittsburgh, but this week he goes on the road to face a defense that forced 5 turnovers from Andy Dalton last Sunday. The best-case scenario for Kizer would be a repeat of last week, but I think it’s more likely that he takes a step back. He’s just a low-end QB2 option with upside this week.

QB DeShaun Watson, HOU (Wk. 2: @Cin.): No one was surprised that Watson was forced into action in week 1, but he didn’t look ready for prime time just yet. He posted just 4.44 yards per attempt and turned the ball over twice in a blowout loss. I don’t expect things to get much better this week. He’s battling an ankle injury, has a short week with a Thursday night game, and the Texans o-line should continue to struggle. The returns for Watson were mixed in week 1, but he should be avoided in week 2.

RB Joe Mixon, CIN (Wk. 2: vs. Hou.): The Texans struggled to contain Jacksonville’s rushing attack on Sunday, but they look like a tough run defense on paper and Mixon didn’t exactly impress in his limited week 1 role. He led the Bengals’ backfield with 11 touches, but totaled just 24 yards. The touches were split fairly evenly between Mixon, Gio Bernard and Jeremy Hill. Until Mixon is able to separate himself from the other 2, this looks like a situation to avoid.

RB Jamaal Williams, GB (Wk. 2: @Atl.): Ty Montgomery proved this is his backfield in week 1. TyMo played 90% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps, and after posting PFF’s highest pass protection grade among RBs for the week, I’d expect that workhorse role to continue for him going forward. Williams received just 2 carries in the opener, and at this point likely needs an injury to Montgomery to return value any time soon.

RB Marlon Mack, IND (Wk. 2: vs. Ari.): The Colts offense was predictably a mess while helmed by Scott Tolzien last weekend, and although Mack scored a TD, he also had 9 carries for zero yards outside of his longest carry of the day (24 yards). He also only had 4 touches in the first 2 and a half quarters of the game, and didn’t see extended run until the Colts were being blown out. They may very well get blown out again this week and turn to Mack in garbage time, but it’s hard to bank on. The Cardinals didn’t play well as a team last week, but they did hold the Lions’ RBs to 58 yards on 25 carries. The Lions don’t boast a great run offense, but neither do the Colts. Mack should be left on the pine.

WR Zay Jones, BUF (Wk. 2: @Car.): It was promising that Tyrod Taylor looked better in the opener than he did in the preseason, but disheartening that Zay was out-targeted by both Charles Clay and Shady McCoy. The Bills will be a low-volume passing attack all year, and 4 targets won’t cut it for fantasy purposes for Zay. There will be game scripts that call for more passing, but you’d like to see more of a connection between Zay and Tyrod before running Jones out there in fantasy lineups.

WR Taywan Taylor, TEN (Wk. 2: @Jax.): There may be even fewer snaps for Taylor this week than the 6 offensive snaps he played last week now that Davis is closer to 100%. He did manage 2-14 on those 6 snaps, which is nice efficiency, but he belongs firmly planted on the bench until his role increases.

WR ArDarius Stewart, NYJ (Wk. 2: @Oak.): It’ll be tough to consider any Jets pass catcher until the offense demonstrates they can throw the ball. Stewart may lose snaps to Jeremy Kerley this week, and was mostly a non-factor on Sunday while Kerley was a healthy scratch, posting 2-10 on 5 targets. It’s going to be an ugly season for the Jets.

TE OJ Howard, TB (Wk. 2: vs. Chi.): Howard should be used mostly as a blocker early in the year, with Cameron Brate serving more in the receiving TE role. The Bears allowed just the 22^nd most points to opposing TEs a year ago, and didn’t allow a single target to Austin Hooper until a long TD on a broken play in the 4^th quarter. Howard is a dynasty stash who might not do that much damage in redraft leagues this year.

TE David Njoku, CLE (Wk. 2: @Bal.): Njoku was targeted just twice in the opener, and this week faces off with a defense that allowed the 7^th fewest TE points a season ago and held Tyler Eifert to 1-4 on 1 target on Sunday. You would be best off avoiding Njoku this week.

TE George Kittle, SF (Wk. 2: @Sea.): The Iowa product showed he was over his hamstring injury with 5 catches in the opener, but the Panthers allowed the 2^nd most TE points in the league last year. Seattle allowed the 4^th fewest. Kittle will be targeted a handful of times this week, but I wouldn’t expect him to have much success with them.

Deep League Sleepers and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Alvin Kamara, NO (Wk. 2: vs. NE): Although the Patriots allowed the fewest RB points in the league last year in standard scoring, only the Atlanta Falcons allowed more receptions to the position, and Kansas City’s backs just shredded them in week 1. Kamara led New Orleans RBs in snaps and touches in week 1, and he is likely going to be their primary receiving back. This game could turn into a shootout, so he may increase the 50% snap share he played a week ago. Kamara’s volume is probably too low to trust him as anything more than a flex option in deep PPR leagues, but he could be a great DFS tournament option at just $3,500 on DraftKings.

WR Chris Godwin, TB (Wk. 2: vs. Chi.): Godwin is strictly a boom-or-bust punt option for DFS tournaments. He’s at least behind Mike Evans and D-Jax on the depth chart, but he might also play fewer snaps than Adam Humphries. His floor for this week is zero points, but he has dazzled in every opportunity he’s been given. He’s been compared to Roddy White by his head coach this preseason, I expect them to try to get Godwin involved a handful of times on Sunday. I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes a couple of big plays.

TE Gerald Everett, LAR (Wk. 2: vs. Was.): Just like last week, the Rams face a defense that was below average against TEs last year (Washington allowed 10^th most points to them), and McVay likes to use the position a lot. Everett turned his only target last week into a 39-yard gain. I’d expect him to see a few more targets this week, and is a nice TD dart throw that will cost the minimum in DraftKings.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with the tougher lineup decisions you have to make involving your rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report through the week, and make sure to check for any surprise inactives on game day. If you have any questions, or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Week 1 is in the books and 241 entries have been eliminated from the 1005 total entrants, mostly at the hands of the Patriots' and Texans' surprising losses. If you listened to me last week, you are one of the survivors. Both the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Buffalo Bills had rather uneventful victories in week 1, which is exactly what I am looking for in my picks. Easy games I didn't even need to watch. Cleveland scored a late touchdown to make the game seem closer than it was with a final of 21-18 against the Steelers.

I laid out my winning strategy in the first article and will continue to reinforce that plan in week 2. So I pull out my schedule and see that the Jets travel to Oakland this week. There is my top pick. The Raiders are considered serious Super Bowl contenders and the Jets will be buying tickets to the game. I wonder if the Jets and Giants combined that they could make one good team? Anyways, I expect the Raiders to get an early lead and then give the Jets a Keith Richards sized dose of Marshawn Lynch. I will be interested to see in the coming weeks if the Raiders defense remains as impressive as they were against the Titans in week 1. If they truly are that much better than the rest of the league we better look out.

My Runner up pick goes to the Baltimore Ravens coming home to face the Cleveland Browns. Baltimore impressed me in week 1, shutting out the Bengals in Cincinnati 20-0. Deshone Kizer actually put up decent numbers for a first start going 20-30, 1TD, 1INT with an added rushing TD. But judging by the yards per rush and without watching most of this game I assume Pittsburgh loaded the box and focused on stopping the run and making Kizer beat them with his arm. Baltimore's stout defense will do the same this week. Can they shut out the state of Ohio? If the Ravens figure out how to score some points they can be a dangerous team down the stretch.

I expect Seattle to get a lot of picks this week as well as being 13.5 point favorites over the San Francisco 49ers. While the 49ers were handled easily 23-3 last week at the hands of the Carolina Panthers, Seattle was very lackluster in my opinion of a game a watched basically start to finish. Their defense did well against the Packers but their inability to score TDs in the red-zone is a concern for me. This is a trap game to me and I would take the 9ers with the points all day.

As you can see by the 241 dropping out after the first week, there is no need to get cute at the beginning of the season. I went with the 1st and 3rd highest point favorites this week. Book a win, and make the easy pick. Much like a poker tournament, you can't win the whole thing on the first hand.

Cheers,
Drink Five!

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.

0 Interceptions

For only the second time in his career, Jay Cutler did not thrown an INT in his opening game. This means that next week will be the first time that Cutler takes a snap in Week 3 of an NFL season and doesn't have an INT to his name. OK, fine, this might be a way to pick on Smokin' Jay, but I must tip my cap to him and the Dolphins for winning on the road after the surprise Week 1 bye. 230 yards and 1 TD isn't going to blow anyone's socks off, but as I noticed during the game, it's still the same old Cutler. He's still throwing off his back foot, airing it out and getting lucky as hell from time to time. It's nice having tall receivers.

25% Field Goal Percentage

The Chargers new kicker, YoungHoe Koo doesn't even have a success rate that would keep you employed in baseball. The rookie kicker is just 1-for-4 in field goal attempts this season. He's missed or had blocked two at the end of games that would have either tied or give his team the lead with time running out. Both are only from 44 yards away, and his other miss is from 43. His only make has come from 41 yards, and to his credit, he has made 5/5 extra points. Making all your extra points is getting hard to come by in this league. It must be rough being a Chargers fan now. On top of playing in a tiny stadium that people are making fun of, having an owner people poke fun at, you now have to worry about kicking problems on your 0-2 team (which has just a 12% shot at making the playoffs, historically).

20+ Fantasy Points

This week felt a lot more like a normal week of fantasy football. There were 12 players that scored at least 20 points in standard scoring this week, and 9 of them are owned in at least 96% of Yahoo leagues. So, I guess go pick up C.J. Anderson if your league has been asleep? Lots of big names went back to their normal productive selves, but a few new names might stick around a bit. Trevor Siemian leads the league in passing TD's and has the most fantasy points for QB's (second overall). He's only owned by 13% of leagues right now! The Broncos look good at home, but I want to see a them on the road before inserting Siemian in my lineup. It is, however, the right time to pick him up off the waiver wire.

0.1 Fantasy Points

In our drinkfive.com fantasy league, my opponent had her TE break his foot, and he still scored 10x the points that my TE scored. Greg Olsen's 1 point was an order of magnitude larger than Jimmy Graham's 0.1 points. The tight end position is about to get a lot thinner as two of the main starters are looking like they aren't options going forward. Olsen's broken foot definitely leaves him out of your lineup, and Graham has some knee issues and is playing on Thursday night this week. It's time to scour the waiver wire for a new TE, thankfully, there are actually several options out there for you.

14 Seconds

At the end of the first half in the Patriots-Saints game, Tom Brady was tackled with just 14 seconds to go and no time-outs. Bad clock management some of you may say? Not from Belichick; he got his team ready for this. The field goal unit scrambled onto the field and snapped the ball with 2 seconds to spare and gave the Pats a 30-13 lead going into halftime. The poise and calmness that this all happened with made it seem like they planned on just this exact situation coming up on this very drive. It makes you wonder if Belichick told the special teams that they're not allowed to have timeouts anymore, and if they screw it up, they don't get to eat on Thursdays.

We're 2 weeks into the year and already have a laundry list of injured players to discuss. Just when we thought it could not get much worse, some more big players go down this week. Don’t throw in that towel! Stay active on the waiver wire and pucker your butthole for a long year of misfortune!

Quarterbacks

Sam Bradford (Knee) - There is so much scar tissue in Bradford’s knees, the team is unsure what is going on in there. The Vikings are calling it a bone bruise. He went through warm-ups before the game and threw a few balls before declaring himself out. Keep an eye out for an update on Wednesday. The whole offense takes a major dip if he is not on the field.

Other –

DeShone Kizer (Head/Migraine) - took some painkillers and returned to the game in the third quarter.

Running Backs

Fat Rob Kelley (Chest) – Fat Rob was having a respectable game before getting knocked out with a rib injury. The Redskins feared this was a fracture but that does not appear to be the case. He is currently Day to Day and we will have a better idea of his status later in the week

Jordan Howard (Shoulder) – Howard was spotted after the game in a sling. He was dealing with a shoulder injury going into this week and was just shy of a first down worth of rushing for the day. (9 rushes – 7 yards) Also worth noting that Cohen out-touched him 15-9 in a blowout game. We should know more tomorrow but John Fox is notorious for keeping injury information to himself.

DeMarco Murray (Hamstring) – Murray is day to day with a tight hamstring. He struggled against the Jags and Henry looked like the better RB on the field. I expect to see more and more of a split in that backfield. Get whatever value is left out of Murray while you can.

Rex Burkhead (Rib) – Burkhead caught a nice 19-yard touchdown on Sunday but was unable to finish the game. He went to the locker room in the fourth quarter and mum's the word since his exit. Gives a nice boost to James White if he is out but look at the injury report on Wednesday for an update.

Wide Receivers

Jordy Nelson (Quad) – Nelson left the game in the first quarter vs the Falcons after getting a knee to the thigh. He was seen riding an exercise bike during the game. This leads me to believe he got a good Charlie Horse and should be good to go this week. The current update is 50-50 for this week. Keep an eye on the situation and have a backup plan just in case.

Corey Coleman (Hand) – 2nd year Browns' receiver Corey Coleman is now 2 for 2 on seasons with broken hands. This time around it does require surgery so he is expected to land on IR. Shame to see after building some chemistry with DeMigraine Kizer. Not worth a hold unless you have an IR spot available.

Other Notable injuries:

Corey Davis (Hamstring) - Returned to game

Phillip Dorsett (Knee) - More patriot WR’s hurt. Not too fantasy relevant

Kendall Wright (Arm) - AVOID BEARS PLAYERS

Jeremy Maclin (Shoulder) - Returned to the game

Tight Ends

Greg Olsen (Foot) – Greg underwent surgery on his broken right foot today and has been placed on IR. Thankfully they did not have to remove it! The Panthers believe he will be back this season but he will not be eligible to practice for 6 weeks. Dickson will take over TE duties for the Panthers. You should have better options available on the waivers.

Jordan Reed (Chest) – Reed left in the third quarter of the game with a chest injury and did not return. Today, they are calling this a bruised chest which is a new one for me. Doesn’t seem like an issue and he should suit up week 3. The toe remains a concern.

Rob Gronkowski (Groin) – Gronk left the game and did not return after tweaking his groin. Gronk looked great before exiting the game and is expected to be good to go this weekend. Thankfully the injury is to a part of his body that sees the most exercise in the offseason so I expect a quick recovery.